奧馳亞 (MO) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2016 fourth-quarter and full-year earnings conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2016 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約一小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President Investor Relations, for Altria Client Services.

我現在想將電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務部投資者關係副總裁 Bill Marshall 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Lori.

謝謝你，洛里。

Good morning and thank you for joining us.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。

We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO, and Billy Gifford, our CFO, to discuss Altria's 2016 fourth-quarter and full-year business results.

今天早上，我們與奧馳亞首席執行官 Marty Barrington 和首席財務官比利吉福德在這裡討論奧馳亞 2016 年第四季度和全年的業務業績。

Earlier today we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria investor app.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，提供了這些結果，可在我們的網站 altria.com 和奧馳亞投資者應用程序上獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we are comparing results to the same periods in 2015.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2015 年同期進行比較。

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

請查看今天收益發布結束時的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board.

未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。

The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors.

股票回購的時機取決於市場條件和其他因素。

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with US generally accepted accounting principles.

奧馳亞根據美國公認會計原則報告其財務業績。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results.

調整後的結果不包括影響報告結果可比性的特殊項目。

Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release.

這些非公認會計原則財務措施和對賬的描述包含在今天的收益發布中。

Now I will turn the call over to Marty.

現在我將把電話轉給 Marty。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

We are pleased to report that Altria had another outstanding year.

我們很高興地報告，奧馳亞又度過了一個出色的一年。

In 2016, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 8.2%, in line with our long-term objectives, while returning a large amount of cash to shareholders, improving our balance sheet, and strengthening our organizational capability, thus well positioning Altria to continue to deliver on our long-term goals.

2016 年，我們調整後的攤薄每股收益增長了 8.2%，符合我們的長期目標，同時向股東返還大量現金，改善我們的資產負債表，加強我們的組織能力，從而使奧馳亞有利於繼續實現我們的長期目標。

During 2016, we also rewarded our shareholders by paying out over $4.5 billion in dividends, raising our dividend by 8%, and repurchasing over $1 billion of our shares under an expanded $3 billion share repurchase program.

2016 年，我們還通過支付超過 45 億美元的股息、將股息提高 8% 以及根據擴大的 30 億美元股票回購計劃回購了超過 10 億美元的股票來回報我們的股東。

Since the beginning of 2011, we have returned over $28 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

自 2011 年初以來，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了超過 280 億美元。

And our dividend payout ratio of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS is among the highest in our peer group.

我們的股息支付率約為調整後攤薄每股收益的 80%，是同行中最高的。

In 2016, we strengthened our balance sheet by tendering for high coupon debt and refinancing it with lower coupon, longer-maturity debt.

2016 年，我們通過投標高息債務並以低息、較長期限的債務進行再融資來加強我們的資產負債表。

And in October, with Altria's support of Anheuser Busch InBev's landmark business combination with SABMiller, we enhanced the value of our beer investment and our position in the global brewing profit pool.

10 月，在奧馳亞對百威英博與 SABMiller 的標誌性業務合併的支持下，我們提升了啤酒投資的價值以及我們在全球釀造利潤池中的地位。

We continue also to improve our operating efficiency through a $300 million productivity initiative announced in January 2016 and a separate $50 million manufacturing consolidation plan announced in October.

我們還通過 2016 年 1 月宣布的 3 億美元的生產力計劃和 10 月宣布的單獨的 5000 萬美元的製造業整合計劃，繼續提高我們的運營效率。

These efforts and others have strengthened our organization, streamlined our business processes, and provided greater autonomy to our business leaders in this dynamic environment.

這些努力和其他努力加強了我們的組織，簡化了我們的業務流程，並在這個動態的環境中為我們的業務領導者提供了更大的自主權。

For 2016, Altria delivered a total shareholder return of 20.5%, marking the fourth consecutive year that total shareholder return has exceeded 20%.

2016年，奧馳亞的股東總回報率為20.5%，連續第四年股東總回報率超過20%。

And over the last 5 years, Altria's total shareholder return was 187%, significantly outpacing both the S&P 500 and the S&P Food Beverage & Tobacco Index.

在過去 5 年中，奧馳亞的股東總回報率為 187%，大大超過了標準普爾 500 指數和標準普爾食品飲料和煙草指數。

All these results are made possible by our dedicated and talented employees, so I want to thank them all.

所有這些成果都歸功於我們敬業且才華橫溢的員工，因此我要感謝他們所有人。

Here are some operating highlights.

以下是一些運營亮點。

The smokeable products segment produced another year of strong results on the strength and consistency of its leading premium brands.

可吸煙產品部門憑藉其領先高端品牌的實力和一致性又取得了強勁的業績。

Adjusted operating companies' income grew by 5.3% for the year, primarily through higher pricing and effective cost management.

調整後的運營公司全年收入增長 5.3%，主要是通過更高的定價和有效的成本管理。

The smokeable segment delivered this growth despite very difficult comparisons to last year when it grew adjusted OCI nearly 11%.

儘管與去年調整後的 OCI 增長近 11% 相比非常困難，但可吸煙部分仍實現了這一增長。

For the year, PM USA gained 1/10 of a retail share point to 51.4%, and Marlboro maintained retail share near record levels at 44%.

全年，PM USA 的零售份額增加了 1/10，達到 51.4%，而萬寶路的零售份額保持在 44% 的創紀錄水平附近。

PM USA continues to bring innovative products, packaging, and adult consumer engagement activities to the market to reinforce Marlboro's vibrancy and relevance.

PM USA 繼續為市場帶來創新產品、包裝和成人消費者參與活動，以增強萬寶路的活力和相關性。

For example, the national expansion of Marlboro Menthol Slate, a bold menthol product featuring PM USA's innovative [Soft Touch Inc.] packaging is receiving positive feedback from our trade partners.

例如，Marlboro Menthol Slate 的全國擴張，這是一種大膽的薄荷醇產品，採用 PM USA 的創新 [Soft Touch Inc.] 包裝，得到了我們貿易夥伴的積極反饋。

Last month, we further enhanced our smokeable products segment by acquiring Nat Sherman.

上個月，我們通過收購 Nat Sherman 進一步增強了我們的可吸煙產品部門。

Nat Sherman has an excellent and differentiated brand portfolio which complements the brands in Altria's smokeable products segment.

Nat Sherman 擁有出色且差異化的品牌組合，與奧馳亞可吸煙產品領域的品牌相得益彰。

Nat Sherman brands will benefit from the retail distribution, brand management, and adult tobacco consumer engagement expertise of Altria's companies.

Nat Sherman 品牌將受益於奧馳亞公司的零售分銷、品牌管理和成人煙草消費者參與專業知識。

Integration and business plans are already well underway and we welcome the Nat Sherman team of employees to the Altria family of companies.

整合和業務計劃已經在進行中，我們歡迎 Nat Sherman 員工團隊加入奧馳亞公司大家庭。

In cigars, Middleton maintained its leadership position in the profitable tipped segment, posting strong full-year volume growth on the strength of the Black & Mild brand.

在雪茄方面，米德爾頓保持了其在有利可圖的雪茄領域的領先地位，憑藉 Black & Mild 品牌的實力實現了強勁的全年銷量增長。

Turning to the smokeless products segment, USSTC delivered a terrific year.

談到無菸產品領域，USSTC 的表現非常出色。

The segment grew adjusted OCI 11% for the year, driven by higher pricing and volume, partially offset by higher costs and mix.

由於更高的定價和銷量，該部門全年調整後的 OCI 增長了 11%，部分被更高的成本和組合所抵消。

Consistent with this strategy, USSTC grew retail share of Copenhagen and Skoal combined by 9/10 of a share point to 52.2%, the highest full-year share since we acquired USSTC.

根據這一戰略，USSTC 將哥本哈根和 Skoal 的零售份額增加了 9/10 個百分點，達到 52.2%，這是我們收購 USSTC 以來的最高全年份額。

Our portfolio strategy has enhanced Copenhagen and Skoal's competitive positioning and improved USSTC's efficiency and profitability.

我們的投資組合戰略增強了哥本哈根和 Skoal 的競爭地位，並提高了 USSTC 的效率和盈利能力。

In 2016, Copenhagen continued to build on its position as the smokeless category's largest brand with the successful national expansion of Copenhagen Mint.

2016年，隨著哥本哈根造幣廠在全國的成功擴張，哥本哈根繼續鞏固其作為無菸品類最大品牌的地位。

Copenhagen is also the fastest-growing smokeless tobacco brand, posting a 2.2 retail share point gain for the year, more than offsetting Skoal's 1.3 share point decline.

哥本哈根也是增長最快的無菸煙草品牌，全年零售份額增長 2.2 點，超過了 Skoal 1.3 點的下降。

Product innovation was also a focus area in 2016, and e-vapor Nu Mark made excellent progress this year toward achieving its long-term aspiration of becoming a leader in the e-vapor category.

產品創新也是 2016 年的重點領域，電子煙 Nu Mark 在今年朝著成為電子煙品類領導者的長期願望取得了顯著進展。

Nu Mark's disciplined test-and-learn approach to MarkTen's national expansion continues to gain traction.

Nu Mark 對 MarkTen 的全國擴張所採取的紀律嚴明的測試和學習方法繼續受到關注。

At year-end, MarkTen was available in stores, representing about 55% of the e-vapor category volume in retail channels, including C stores.

到年底，MarkTen 已在商店發售，約佔零售渠道電子煙品類銷量的 55%，包括 C 店。

In heated tobacco, Altria continues to partner with Philip Morris International on its FDA applications for iQOS.

在加熱煙草方面，奧馳亞繼續與菲利普莫里斯國際公司就 iQOS 的 FDA 申請展開合作。

In December, PMI submitted a modified risk tobacco product application to the FDA for the heated tobacco product that PM USA will commercialize in the US under our agreement with PMI.

12 月，PMI 向 FDA 提交了一份修改後的風險煙草產品申請，用於根據我們與 PMI 的協議，PM USA 將在美國商業化的加熱煙草產品。

PMI plans to file the premarket tobacco product application during the first quarter of 2017, and concurrently, PM USA continues to develop its US plans.

PMI 計劃在 2017 年第一季度提交上市前煙草產品申請，與此同時，PM USA 繼續制定其美國計劃。

For example, a commercialization team is now dedicated to preparing for the launch of iQOS in the US, including working closely with PMI as it gains trade and consumer insights from other markets.

例如，一個商業化團隊現在致力於為在美國推出 iQOS 做準備，包括與 PMI 密切合作，因為它從其他市場獲得貿易和消費者洞察。

In the wine segment, Ste.

在葡萄酒領域，Ste。

Michelle delivered another strong year on the performance of its premium brands, with adjusted operating income growth of nearly 10%.

Michelle 的高端品牌又迎來了強勁的一年，調整後的營業收入增長了近 10%。

For the second consecutive year, Ste.

連續第二年，Ste。

Michelle's premium wines received more than 260 ratings of 90 or better.

Michelle 的優質葡萄酒獲得了 260 多個 90 或更高的評分。

In October, AB InBev completed its business combination with SABMiller, with Altria ultimately securing a 10.2% ownership in AB InBev.

10 月，百威英博完成了與 SABMiller 的業務合併，奧馳亞最終獲得了百威英博 10.2% 的所有權。

This transaction enhanced the value of Altria's beer investment and we expect it to deliver strong long-term financial returns to our shareholders.

這項交易提高了奧馳亞啤酒投資的價值，我們預計它將為我們的股東帶來強勁的長期財務回報。

So to sum up, 2016 was another excellent year for our strong premium brands, our companies, and our shareholders.

總而言之，對於我們強大的高端品牌、我們的公司和我們的股東來說，2016 年是又一個出色的一年。

We achieved significant milestones against an ambitious plan and we believe that we have positioned Altria well for continued future success.

我們在雄心勃勃的計劃中取得了重要的里程碑，我們相信我們已經為奧馳亞的未來繼續成功做好了充分的準備。

Let's turn for a moment to the regulatory environment.

讓我們先談談監管環境。

As you know, we continue to work closely with the FDA as it builds out its regulatory framework.

如您所知，我們將繼續與 FDA 密切合作，以建立其監管框架。

One area is our Company's substantial equivalence applications, both for provisional and new products.

一個領域是我們公司對臨時產品和新產品的實質性等效申請。

So one of our priorities is to resolve those applications, and the pace of work there has picked up.

因此，我們的首要任務之一是解決這些應用程序，並且那裡的工作步伐已經加快。

Second, for cigars and e-vapor, we are preparing the product applications now required by the deeming regulations and continuing to advocate for sensible interpretations consistent with the act.

其次，對於雪茄和電子煙，我們正在準備現在被視為法規要求的產品申請，並繼續倡導符合該法案的合理解釋。

Third, our companies continue to develop new and innovative products to meet evolving adult tobacco consumer expectations, including products that advance tobacco harm reduction.

第三，我們的公司繼續開發新的和創新的產品，以滿足不斷變化的成年煙草消費者的期望，包括促進減少煙草危害的產品。

This too requires advocating FDA and others to support and foster innovation that will benefit adult consumers.

這也需要倡導 FDA 和其他機構支持和促進有益於成年消費者的創新。

We expect a step-up in investments because of these activities.

由於這些活動，我們預計投資會增加。

As you have seen from our press release, we expect to grow our full-year adjusted EPS for 2017 to a range of $3.26 to $3.32, representing growth of 7.5% to 9.5% from our 2016 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.03.

正如您從我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們預計 2017 年全年調整後每股收益將增長至 3.26 美元至 3.32 美元的範圍，比 2016 年調整後的攤薄每股收益基數 3.03 美元增長 7.5% 至 9.5%。

So we expect another strong year for Altria.

因此，我們預計奧馳亞將迎來又一個強勁的一年。

It may be helpful to share some further color on how we are thinking about that.

分享一些關於我們如何思考的更多顏色可能會有所幫助。

So to begin, we are expecting continued strong performance from our operating companies, and we believe that the macroeconomic environment remains largely constructive for adult tobacco consumers.

因此，首先，我們預計我們的運營公司將繼續保持強勁表現，我們相信宏觀經濟環境在很大程度上對成年煙草消費者來說仍然具有建設性。

We also will have the benefit of reporting four full quarters of equity earnings from AB InBev.

我們還將受益於報告來自 AB InBev 的四個完整季度的股票收益。

On the other hand, we have seen some cigarette volume declines reverting back to more long-term norms.

另一方面，我們看到一些捲菸銷量下降恢復到更長期的常態。

We also know that in April, California, a high-volume state, will implement significantly higher excise taxes.

我們還知道，在 4 月份，高消費量的加利福尼亞州將實施顯著提高的消費稅。

And there are already proposals in several states to raise excise taxes further.

並且已經有幾個州提出了進一步提高消費稅的提議。

And finally, we have taken into account an expected increase in our effective tax rate for 2017, which Billy will explain in a moment.

最後，我們已經考慮到 2017 年有效稅率的預期增長，Billy 稍後將對此進行解釋。

The most important point is that we are entering 2017 with very good momentum from last year and are expecting another year of growth in line with our long-term financial goals.

最重要的一點是，我們正在進入 2017 年，與去年相比勢頭非常好，並期待著符合我們長期財務目標的又一年增長。

And so with that, I will turn the call over to Billy.

因此，我將把電話轉給比利。

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Marty，大家早上好。

Our operating companies delivered solid results in the fourth quarter.

我們的運營公司在第四季度取得了可觀的業績。

In the smokeable products segment, fourth-quarter adjusted OCI grew by 3.7% and adjusted OCI margins increased by 2 percentage points, both driven by higher net pricing and lower benefits cost.

在可吸煙產品領域，第四季度調整後的 OCI 增長了 3.7%，調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長了 2 個百分點，這兩者都受到淨定價和福利成本降低的推動。

For the year, adjusted OCI margins in the segment expanded 1.8 percentage points to 48.2%, driven by higher net pricing and lower benefits cost, partially offset by higher resolution expenses.

全年，該部門調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長 1.8 個百分點至 48.2%，這主要是受淨定價和福利成本降低的推動，但部分被更高的分辨率費用所抵消。

PM USA maintained its leading retail position in the fourth quarter.

PM USA 在第四季度保持其領先的零售地位。

PM USA's reported domestic cigarette shipment volume declined 4.8% in the quarter, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline and one fewer shipping day.

PM USA 報告的國內捲煙出貨量在本季度下降了 4.8%，主要是由於行業下降速度和運輸天數減少。

After adjusting for calendar differences, PM USA estimates that its cigarette volume declined approximately 3.5% in the quarter and that total industry cigarette volumes also declined by approximately 3.5%.

在調整日曆差異後，PM USA 估計其捲菸銷量在本季度下降了約 3.5%，而行業捲菸總銷量也下降了約 3.5%。

For the year, PM USA estimates that its adjusted cigarette volume declined approximately 2.5% and that total industry volume also declined by approximately 2.5%.

今年，美國 PM 估計其調整後的捲煙銷量下降了約 2.5%，行業總銷量也下降了約 2.5%。

Over the last three quarters, we have seen the cigarette industry volume decline rate gradually revert to more long-term historical norms.

在過去三個季度中，我們看到捲菸行業銷量下降速度逐漸恢復到更長期的歷史常態。

In the machine-made large cigar category, Middleton's focus on the profitable tip segment continues to yield strong results.

在機制制大雪茄類別中，米德爾頓專注於可盈利的尖端部分繼續產生強勁的結果。

Middleton's volumes were up 5.3% in the fourth quarter and 5.9% for the full year.

米德爾頓第四季度的銷量增長了 5.3%，全年增長了 5.9%。

In the smokeless products segment, fourth-quarter adjusted OCI grew by 4.3%, driven by higher net pricing and volume, partially offset by higher cost.

在無菸產品領域，第四季度調整後的 OCI 增長 4.3%，受淨定價和銷量增加的推動，部分被成本上升所抵消。

Fourth-quarter adjusted OCI margins decreased by 2 percentage points due primarily to higher manufacturing costs and promotional investments.

第四季度調整後的 OCI 利潤率下降了 2 個百分點，主要是由於較高的製造成本和促銷投資。

For the year, adjusted OCI margins expanded 7/10 of a percentage point to 64.4%, primarily driven by higher net pricing, partially offset by mix, higher manufacturing cost, and higher promotional investments.

全年，調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長 7/10 個百分點至 64.4%，主要是由於較高的淨定價，部分被混合、較高的製造成本和較高的促銷投資所抵消。

In the fourth quarter, USSTC grew volume ahead of the category growth rate and increased Copenhagen and Skoal's combined retail share by 1.1 share points to 52.5 share points.

第四季度，USSTC 的銷量增長領先於類別增長率，並使哥本哈根和 Skoal 的綜合零售份額增加 1.1 個百分點至 52.5 個百分點。

USSTC's reported shipment volume increased 2.2% in the quarter and 4.9% for the year.

USSTC 報告的出貨量在本季度增長 2.2%，全年增長 4.9%。

After adjusting for trade inventory movements and other factors, USSTC estimates that its shipment volume grew by approximately 4.5% in the quarter and 5% for the year.

在調整貿易庫存變動和其他因素後，USSTC 估計其出貨量在本季度增長約 4.5%，全年增長 5%。

This growth is well ahead of the estimated industry volume growth of approximately 2.5% over the past 6 months.

這一增長遠高於過去 6 個月估計的約 2.5% 的行業銷量增長。

In wine, Ste.

在葡萄酒方面，Ste。

Michelle grew adjusted OCI by 16.4% in the fourth quarter and 9.9% for the year.

Michelle 第四季度調整後的 OCI 增長了 16.4%，全年增長了 9.9%。

Ste.

聖。

Michelle's reported wine shipment volume grew 4.2% in the quarter and 5.3% for the year.

米歇爾報告的葡萄酒出貨量在本季度增長了 4.2%，全年增長了 5.3%。

Let me pick up on the tax issue Marty mentioned when discussing our guidance for 2017.

讓我來談談 Marty 在討論我們 2017 年的指導時提到的稅收問題。

For a variety of reasons, we expect that our 2017 full-year effective tax rate on operations will be approximately 36% compared to 34.7% for 2016.

出於多種原因，我們預計 2017 年全年的運營有效稅率將約為 36%，而 2016 年為 34.7%。

One of these reasons is because we anticipate fewer foreign tax credits related to AB InBev dividends.

其中一個原因是因為我們預計與百威英博股息相關的外國稅收抵免會減少。

Though technical, this is driven by differences in the profit pools between AB InBev and the former SABMiller.

儘管是技術性的，但這是由 AB InBev 和前 SABMiller 之間的利潤池差異驅動的。

That wraps up our results.

這總結了我們的結果。

Marty and I are now happy to take your questions.

馬蒂和我現在很高興回答你的問題。

While the calls are being compiled, I will direct your attention to altria.com.

在編譯電話時，我會將您的注意力引向 altria.com。

Along with today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations, we have posted for your reference our usual list of quarterly metrics, including pricing, inventory, and other housekeeping items.

除了今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬之外，我們還發布了我們通常的季度指標列表供您參考，包括定價、庫存和其他內務管理項目。

Operator, do we have any questions?

接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Adam Spielman, Citi.

（操作員說明）Citi 的 Adam Spielman。

Thank you very much for taking my question.

非常感謝您提出我的問題。

So obviously, your main competitor has agreed to be taken over, and there has been speculation with respect to yourself.

所以很明顯，你的主要競爭對手已經同意被接管，關於你自己的猜測一直存在。

And I was wondering, and my first question is, can you outline what you would see is the advances use and the disadvantages use of being part of a bigger tobacco agreement?

我想知道，我的第一個問題是，你能概括一下你會看到作為更大煙草協議一部分的好處和壞處嗎？

Because there must be some advantages and there must be some disadvantages.

因為肯定有一些優點，也一定有一些缺點。

No, I think I'm going to steer away from that topic, Adam.

不，我想我會避開這個話題，亞當。

As we have discussed previously, I think it's just not appropriate for me to be drawn into either anyone else's transactions or speculation about future transactions.

正如我們之前所討論的，我認為我不適合捲入任何其他人的交易或對未來交易的猜測。

I just don't really know how to discuss that intelligently without going there, so I'm afraid I won't do that.

如果不去那裡，我真的不知道如何明智地討論這個問題，所以我擔心我不會那樣做。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

It's a clear and sensible answer, I would say.

我會說，這是一個明確而明智的答案。

Moving on to the domestic cigarette industry, I was wondering if you could talk about a little bit and give some color about how you are seeing the pricing environment, particularly in the light of the fact that Imperial has said, if anything, it wants to invest a little bit more in pricing to grow market share perhaps a little bit faster.

轉到國內捲煙行業，我想知道您是否可以談談您如何看待定價環境，特別是考慮到帝國已經說過，如果有的話，它想要在定價方面投入更多資金以更快地增加市場份額。

And also in the light of the fact that, at least according to the scanner data, Reynolds' market share has stopped growing and has perhaps declined.

而且，至少根據掃描儀數據，雷諾的市場份額已經停止增長，而且可能已經下降。

So it is really a question about the pricing environment in light of that.

因此，鑑於此，這確實是一個關於定價環境的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes, thanks for calling in.

是的，謝謝你的來電。

I appreciate your questions.

我很欣賞你的問題。

I won't talk about anyone else's pricing, but I can tell you how we think about pricing.

我不會談論其他人的定價，但我可以告訴你我們如何看待定價。

And the numbers that we put out I think demonstrate it.

我認為我們發布的數字證明了這一點。

Listen, for us, we are a publicly traded company, we have growth aspirations.

聽著，對我們來說，我們是一家上市公司，我們有成長的願望。

And our master settlement agreement payment goes up every year, and we have FDA payments that go up every year.

我們的主和解協議付款每年都在增加，我們的 FDA 付款每年都在增加。

And our principal income contributor is the cigarette category where the volume goes down.

我們的主要收入來源是銷量下降的捲菸類別。

So the strategy there for us is to take appropriate pricing in order that we can grow in line with our aspirations.

因此，我們的策略是採取適當的定價，以便我們能夠按照我們的願望成長。

And we have been able to do that.

我們已經能夠做到這一點。

You have seen that pricing for the year in the smokeable segment of about 4%.

您已經看到今年可抽吸部分的定價約為 4%。

If you look at it slightly longer periods, Adam, I think it is on average somewhere between 4% and 5% advances there.

如果你看它的時間稍長一些，亞當，我認為它平均有 4% 到 5% 的進步。

And that algorithm works for us in terms of the profitability we expect from the smokeable segment.

就我們對可吸煙部分的預期盈利能力而言，該算法對我們有效。

So that's how we think about pricing.

這就是我們對定價的看法。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Owen Bennett, Jefferies.

歐文貝內特，傑富瑞。

Two questions, please.

請教兩個問題。

Firstly, I was wondering if you could be a bit more specific on expectations for cigarette industry volumes into fiscal year 2017.

首先，我想知道您是否可以更具體地說明對 2017 財年捲菸行業銷量的預期。

And secondly, could you comment on the current share and share trends of Nat Sherman.

其次，您能否評論一下 Nat Sherman 當前的分享和分享趨勢。

And then what your realistic expectations for the brand going forward.

然後你對品牌未來的現實期望是什麼。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Sure, good questions both.

當然，這兩個問題都很好。

Listen, I think you know we don't guide on volume, but Billy made reference to this in his prepared remarks.

聽著，我想你知道我們不指導音量，但比利在他準備好的評論中提到了這一點。

For the year, on an adjusted basis, we've got volume down for us at about 2.5%, but obviously the declines were higher in the back half of the year than they were in the first half of the year.

今年，在調整後的基礎上，我們的銷量下降了約 2.5%，但顯然下半年的降幅高於上半年。

And you are familiar with all the reasons for that, I know, so I won't repeat them.

我知道，你很熟悉其中的所有原因，所以我不會重複。

So we have taken that into account as we thought about our plan for the year.

所以我們在考慮今年的計劃時已經考慮到了這一點。

And in addition, of course, we have mentioned we've got the California excise tax coming online in April, and we have been mindful of that.

此外，當然，我們已經提到我們已經在 4 月推出了加州消費稅，我們一直注意到這一點。

Listen, we are really happy about the Nat Sherman acquisition.

聽著，我們對收購 Nat Sherman 感到非常高興。

They have a terrific team of people over there.

他們在那裡有一支很棒的團隊。

They have a very complementary brand portfolio to us.

他們與我們有一個非常互補的品牌組合。

It is a small share position, as you know.

如您所知，這是一個很小的份額頭寸。

It is much more of a niche position.

這更像是一個利基職位。

But we believe that when we combine their talented people and brands with the system that we have in terms of retail distribution and brand expertise that we can really make this grow quite nicely.

但我們相信，當我們將他們的人才和品牌與我們在零售分銷和品牌專業知識方面擁有的系統結合起來時，我們真的可以讓這一切發展得非常好。

So we haven't put out any targets on that, as you can appreciate from a competitive point of view, but it is a very nice addition to the smokeable segment for us.

因此，我們沒有為此設定任何目標，從競爭的角度來看，您可以欣賞到這一點，但這對我們來說是可吸煙部分的一個很好的補充。

And we are really excited about it.

我們對此感到非常興奮。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Vivien Azer, Cowen.

薇薇安·阿澤爾，考恩。

Two questions for me, please.

請教我兩個問題。

First, Marty, your commentary about your constructive view on the consumer heading into 2017, just curious your thoughts on how a potential border adjusted tax would impact that view.

首先，Marty，您對進入 2017 年的消費者的建設性觀點發表了評論，只是好奇您對潛在的邊境調整稅將如何影響這一觀點的想法。

Obviously a lot of moving pieces in terms of a tax proposal, but perhaps more broadly, what do you think would make you more cautious on the consumer in 2017?

顯然，在稅收提案方面有很多動人的因素，但也許更廣泛地說，你認為什麼會讓你在 2017 年對消費者更加謹慎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

I don't know that we thought that that would be material.

我不知道我們認為那會很重要。

And I guess it is just so -- it is moving around so much, Vivien, in terms of what those proposals are that we haven't really built that into our plan.

我猜它就是這樣 - Vivien，就這些提案的內容而言，我們並沒有真正將其納入我們的計劃中。

I will give that some thought, but nothing comes immediately to mind that would change the view that I expressed.

我會考慮一下，但沒有什麼能立即改變我表達的觀點。

Okay, that's fair.

好吧，這很公平。

And then secondly, on the commercialization team for iQOS, just from a regulatory standpoint as you kind of look at what is permissible in terms of product activation in the United States, can you point us to a couple of countries where PM is already in the market that would most closely mirror the US from a regulatory standpoint in terms of communication and advertising and consumer engagement?

其次，在 iQOS 的商業化團隊中，僅從監管的角度來看，在美國允許產品激活的情況下，您能否為我們指出幾個 PM 已經在從監管角度來看，在溝通、廣告和消費者參與方面最能反映美國的市場？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, that's a thoughtful question.

是的，這是一個深思熟慮的問題。

What we're doing is we're trying to look at each of the markets and see about those parallels and extract the -- not just the consumer insight, but the trade insight.

我們正在做的是我們試圖查看每個市場並了解這些相似之處並提取 - 不僅是消費者洞察力，而且是貿易洞察力。

So for example, if one goes to Italy, as you know, it is quite a dark market.

舉個例子，如果你去意大利，你知道，那是一個相當黑暗的市場。

And because iQOS requires a fair amount of exposition to the consumer to understand what it is, I think that PMI would be the first to tell you that Italy's been a bit more challenging.

而且因為 iQOS 需要向消費者進行大量說明才能了解它是什麼，我認為 PMI 將是第一個告訴你意大利更具挑戰性的人。

There are other markets that are more open in terms of the ability to communicate with the consumer.

在與消費者溝通的能力方面，還有其他市場更加開放。

You see the results in Japan and you know the regulatory situation there.

你在日本看到了結果，你知道那裡的監管情況。

Our job at PM USA is to read all of that data, and with our expertise about what is permitted in the United States, including under the master settlement agreement, for example, is that weave that into a plan that will meet our goals.

我們在 PM USA 的工作是閱讀所有這些數據，並且憑藉我們對美國允許的內容的專業知識，包括根據總和解協議，例如，將其編入一個能夠實現我們目標的計劃。

What we're going to try to do, of course, is to introduce adult smokers to the product, try to explain what it is and its attributes, and then give them an opportunity to see if it is for them.

當然，我們要做的是向成年吸煙者介紹該產品，嘗試解釋它是什麼及其屬性，然後給他們一個機會，看看它是否適合他們。

And we've got very good plans coming together on that, and -- many of which I think are drawn from the international market experience.

我們已經制定了非常好的計劃，而且我認為其中許多計劃都來自國際市場經驗。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Just to follow-up on that, as you understand it, but sampling and execution model similar to Italy with the embassies for iQOS would be permissible in the United States?

正如您所理解的那樣，只是為了跟進，但是在美國是否允許類似於意大利的 iQOS 大使館的採樣和執行模式？

We'll have to work through all that.

我們將不得不解決所有這些問題。

I don't want to prejudge the results on that because we want to make -- get a good plan together and take advice to make sure that we are staying on the right side of the line.

我不想預先判斷結果，因為我們想一起制定一個好的計劃並聽取建議，以確保我們站在正確的一邊。

But our aspirations is to use the tools that are available to us to get very good exposure to adult smokers and to explain to them as best we can what it is and what its attributes are.

但我們的願望是使用我們可用的工具來很好地接觸成年吸煙者，並儘我們所能向他們解釋它是什麼以及它的屬性是什麼。

That's the idea.

這就是想法。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Bonnie Herzog, Wells Fargo.

邦妮赫爾佐格，富國銀行。

So I guess my first question, I wanted to talk to you guys a little bit about the smokeless recall.

所以我想我的第一個問題，我想和你們談談無菸召回。

And hoping you could talk a little bit more about that and really how extended it could be.

並希望你能多談談這個問題，以及它的擴展範圍。

Trying to understand the facility that's impacted -- I believe it is one out of five facilities.

試圖了解受影響的設施——我相信這是五分之一的設施。

And my understanding is you are not shipping out of that plant yet.

我的理解是你還沒有從那個工廠發貨。

Maybe give us a sense of when you could be or if you can make up some of the volume or supply from your other facilities.

也許讓我們了解您何時可以，或者您是否可以從其他設施中彌補一些數量或供應。

Just trying to understand what kind of impact this could be over the near term and is this factored -- just confirmed it is factored into your guidance.

只是想了解這在短期內可能會產生什麼樣的影響，並且是否已將其考慮在內-剛剛確認已將其考慮到您的指導中。

Well, let me start with that.

好吧，讓我從那開始。

I think the guidance that was issued this morning of course is a range and we have taken everything that we know today into account in issuing that guidance.

我認為今天早上發布的指南當然是一個範圍，我們在發布該指南時已經考慮了我們今天所知道的一切。

Listen, I can't tell you much more than what's in the press release because we put in the press release basically what is known.

聽著，除了新聞稿中的內容，我不能告訴你更多，因為我們在新聞稿中基本上介紹了已知的內容。

So just to reprise, we've got -- as you know, we produce hundreds of millions of cans of smokeless.

再說一遍，我們有——如你所知，我們生產了數億罐無菸罐頭。

We have eight consumer complaints with metal objects in the cans, and so we've been working closely with the FDA.

我們收到了八起消費者對罐頭金屬物品的投訴，因此我們一直在與 FDA 密切合作。

No one has reported any injuries.

沒有人報告任何傷害。

What we're trying to do is to make sure that we are doing the responsible thing with respect to the consumers.

我們正在努力做的是確保我們對消費者負責。

We want to make sure that we're doing everything we can so that no one is injured as a result of this particular incident.

我們希望確保我們正在盡我們所能，以便沒有人因這一特定事件而受傷。

And also it's important, of course, to protect the brand trust.

當然，保護品牌信任也很重要。

So the way I think I would think about it is, of course, it's a short-term disruption.

所以我認為我會考慮的方式當然是，這是一個短期的中斷。

But in the long term, what you want to do is to protect the consumer from harm from this and protect the trust in the brand.

但從長遠來看，您要做的是保護消費者免受傷害並保護對品牌的信任。

We also have two smokeless factories.

我們還有兩個無菸工廠。

The Franklin Park facility is the only one that is affected, Bonnie, and it is the smaller of our factories.

富蘭克林公園工廠是唯一受到影響的工廠，邦妮，它是我們工廠中較小的一家。

So the Nashville factory has not been implicated and that is actually where most of the volume goes through.

因此，納什維爾工廠並沒有受到牽連，而這實際上是大部分產量的來源。

We want to make sure that we have got this buttoned up before we ship any more product out of Franklin Park.

我們想確保在我們將更多產品運出富蘭克林公園之前，我們已經解決了這個問題。

And we will do that as soon as we feel like we have our arms around it, and I just can't give you that date while we are on the call this morning because I don't have it.

我們會在我們覺得我們已經擁抱它時立即這樣做，我只是不能在我們今天早上打電話的時候給你那個日期，因為我沒有它。

Okay.

好的。

Well, that's helpful.

嗯，這很有幫助。

And then switching gears to iQOS, you mentioned that the expectation approved the PMTs to be filed during the first quarter.

然後切換到 iQOS，您提到預期批准 PMT 將在第一季度提交。

So in your mind, then, a realistic time frame -- when do you expect to commercialize iQOS?

那麼，在你看來，一個現實的時間框架——你預計什麼時候將 iQOS 商業化？

Would it be Q4?

會是第四季度嗎？

And then just trying to get a sense for the resources PM might be sharing with you.

然後只是試圖了解 PM 可能與您共享的資源。

And maybe your plans for opening retail stores to educate consumers about this technology.

也許您計劃開設零售店以向消費者宣傳這項技術。

And any color on that in terms of how many and maybe potential locations.

以及關於有多少和可能的潛在位置的任何顏色。

And just again wanted to confirm that the expenses of this are also factored into your 2017 guidance.

再次想確認這方面的費用也計入了您的 2017 年指導。

I will take that again last, which is the answer is yes.

我將在最後再次接受，答案是肯定的。

Everything that we know about right now is factored into the range of the guidance that we issued this morning.

我們現在所知道的一切都包含在我們今天早上發布的指導範圍內。

That includes the work that we're doing to get ready to commercialize iQOS.

這包括我們為將 iQOS 商業化所做的工作。

As you know, we can commercialize iQOS when the FDA rules on its applications and you know what the schedule for that is.

如您所知，當 FDA 對其應用作出規定時，我們可以將 iQOS 商業化，並且您知道其時間表是什麼。

I don't want to really tell folks what our competitive plans are about how we are going to do that, but I would go back to what we were discussing earlier, I guess, which is that the object is to make sure that we get the product to adult smokers and explain how it works and what its attributes are so that they can make a choice about whether it is for them.

我不想真正告訴人們我們的競爭計劃是什麼，我們將如何做到這一點，但我想回到我們之前討論的內容，我想，目標是確保我們得到向成年吸煙者解釋該產品的工作原理及其特性，以便他們可以選擇是否適合他們。

And there's a whole range of activities that you can use to do that.

您可以使用一系列活動來做到這一點。

I just don't want to lay them out, as you can appreciate, for competitive reasons, but we are well underway.

正如你所理解的，出於競爭原因，我只是不想將它們列出來，但我們正在進行中。

We have a crackerjack team on it.

我們有一個crackerjack團隊。

We are very excited about the technology.

我們對這項技術感到非常興奮。

We are working closely with PMI.

我們正在與 PMI 密切合作。

So from my read, I think all the signals from a commercial point of view are in the right direction.

因此，根據我的閱讀，我認為從商業角度來看，所有信號都朝著正確的方向發展。

And we're just going to have to work through the FDA process.

我們只需要通過 FDA 流程。

Understood and that's helpful.

明白了，這很有幫助。

And just maybe one final quick question on -- circling back on cig volumes.

也許只是最後一個快速問題 - 回到 cig 卷上。

I was just curious to hear from you what you saw in December specifically on volumes.

我只是想听聽你在 12 月看到的具體內容。

The reason I'm asking is because the scanner data was very weak for that month in particular.

我問的原因是特別是那個月的掃描儀數據非常弱。

I'm just curious if that is consistent with your business and what you think could have been the reason for that.

我只是好奇這是否與您的業務一致，以及您認為可能是什麼原因。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'm not sure I can help you on a month-by-month basis, but you did see that the volume decline accelerated in the fourth quarter.

我不確定我能否逐月為您提供幫助，但您確實看到第四季度的銷量下降加速。

And of course -- I know you know this, but we had one fewer shipping day.

當然——我知道你知道這一點，但我們的發貨日少了一天。

So I think that's the way to think about it.

所以我認為這就是思考的方式。

It's just hard to grind into it on a monthly basis.

每個月都很難磨到它。

All right, thank you.

好噠。謝謝你們。

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱迪·洪。

So one, just a quick follow-up on the smokeless recall.

所以一個，只是對無菸召回的快速跟進。

If I kind of look at the SKUs that you highlighted in the press release, are we in the ballpark in thinking the volume impact that is around 10% to 15% of the total smokeless volume?

如果我看一下您在新聞稿中強調的 SKU，我們是否認為體積影響約為無菸總體積的 10% 至 15%？

I wouldn't hazard a number, because we're not there yet.

我不會冒險一個數字，因為我們還沒有。

Okay.

好的。

I was just taking all of the SKUs and trying to extrapolate the volume, but --

我只是拿了所有的 SKU 並試圖推斷出數量，但是——

To explain that, we would have to get into what factory makes what SKUs and at what percentages.

為了解釋這一點，我們必須了解哪個工廠生產什麼 SKU 以及生產的百分比是多少。

And that -- I just don't think that's a good use of our time.

那——我只是不認為這是對我們時間的一種很好的利用。

Okay.

好的。

And then Marty, I think it came up a little bit earlier in the call, but just in terms of some of the potential changes that you may be expecting, both on the regulatory front and also on the tax front, as it relates to some of the changes that are potentially going on at the Agency level as well as some of the corporate tax reform policies.

然後是馬蒂，我認為它在電話會議中提早了一點，但就您可能期望的一些潛在變化而言，無論是在監管方面還是在稅收方面，因為它涉及到一些機構層面可能發生的變化以及一些公司稅改革政策。

How you are kind of thinking about the base case scenario for those outcomes?

您如何看待這些結果的基本情況？

And then how that impacts the investments or any kind of decision to invest more into the business or return cash more to shareholders going forward.

然後，這將如何影響投資或任何類型的決定，即更多地投資於業務或向股東返還更多現金。

Got it.

知道了。

Well, let me talk about the long-term, Judy, and then maybe I will try to talk about 2017.

好吧，讓我談談長期，朱迪，然後也許我會嘗試談談 2017 年。

Listen, to the extent that corporate income tax rates could be reformed, as we have discussed previously, that would be a good thing for American business obviously.

聽著，正如我們之前討論的那樣，如果可以改革企業所得稅稅率，這顯然對美國企業來說是一件好事。

And as you know, Altria -- it would be a good thing for Altria.

如您所知，奧馳亞——這對奧馳亞來說是件好事。

And so we've had a program underway to try to urge that as a matter of public policy to reduce the corporate income tax rate.

因此，我們正在進行一項計劃，試圖將其作為一項公共政策來降低企業所得稅率。

We have not built that into our 2017 plans because I think the best thinking is corporate tax reform is pretty complicated and it's likely to take 2017 to do it.

我們尚未將其納入 2017 年的計劃，因為我認為最好的想法是公司稅改革相當複雜，可能需要 2017 年才能完成。

But obviously, it would be a material step up for Altria if we got significant corporate tax reform, so that would be important for us to think about if and when it occurs.

但顯然，如果我們進行重大的公司稅改革，這對奧馳亞來說將是一個實質性的進步，因此我們要考慮它是否以及何時發生，這一點很重要。

I think it's the same thing on a regulatory basis.

我認為這在監管的基礎上是一樣的。

Both at the FDA and for regulatory agencies generally, there appears to be a movement to try to lessen the regulatory burden on business.

在 FDA 和監管機構中，似乎都在嘗試減輕企業的監管負擔。

Our view of that would be good, but those things take time to work their way through the Agency.

我們對此的看法是好的，但這些事情需要時間才能通過原子能機構進行。

Take HHS, for example.

以 HHS 為例。

We don't even have a cabinet appointee yet, much less changes that would occur down the line.

我們甚至還沒有任命內閣成員，更不用說將來會發生的變化了。

So our government affairs team and our -- excuse me, regulatory affairs team are working very hard on that, but I would think of those more in the long term than in the short.

因此，我們的政府事務團隊和我們的 - 對不起，監管事務團隊正在為此努力工作，但我會更多地考慮長期而不是短期。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then just when you talked about the speed in which some of the SE applications are just getting decided, is improving -- just elaborate on what is driving that.

然後就在你談到一些 SE 應用程序剛剛決定的速度時，它正在改進——只要詳細說明是什麼驅動了它。

And did you say you are also spending more resources to make that happen from your perspective?

從您的角度來看，您是否說您還花費了更多資源來實現這一目標？

We have been investing in both regulatory capability and in R&D capability.

我們一直在投資監管能力和研發能力。

And I was trying to provide some color around the guidance in that regard because there is more of it than there used to be.

我試圖為這方面的指導提供一些色彩，因為它比以前更多。

The SE process has picked up.

SE 進程已啟動。

Look, if you are at the Agency, you're not only looking now at working your way through substantial equivalence, but you have under your deeming regulation a lot of product applications that are going to be heading your way.

看，如果您在該機構，您現在不僅在尋找通過實質性等效的方式工作，而且在您認為的監管下，您擁有許多將朝著您的方向發展的產品應用程序。

So we see a pickup in the activity and our activity naturally has picked up commensurate with that.

因此，我們看到了活動的回升，我們的活動自然也隨之回升。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Steve Powers, UBS.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，瑞銀。

So you finished 2016 with $1.9 billion remaining on the buyback and about $2.2 billion more cash on the balance sheet than when you exited 2015.

因此，與 2015 年退出時相比，您在 2016 年結束時的回購餘額為 19 億美元，資產負債表上的現金增加了約 22 億美元。

So it seems reasonable to assume you would expect to execute the vast majority, if not all, of the remaining authorization in 2017.

因此，假設您期望在 2017 年執行絕大多數（如果不是全部）剩餘授權似乎是合理的。

But at the same time, there are some restructuring costs to consider.

但與此同時，也有一些重組成本需要考慮。

And we have recently seen you prioritize M&A in the form of Nat Sherman so -- and I appreciate you're not going to want to give guidance on this.

我們最近看到你以 Nat Sherman 的形式優先考慮併購，我很感激你不想在這方面提供指導。

But just -- I would love a little bit more color on how to think about cash priorities in the coming year, just given all those moving parts.

但是，考慮到所有這些活動部分，我希望對如何考慮來年的現金優先事項有更多的了解。

Sure.

當然。

Billy?

比利？

Thanks for the question, Steve.

謝謝你的問題，史蒂夫。

You are right; we had $1.9 billion left over at the end of last year.

你說的對;到去年年底，我們還剩下 19 億美元。

From a standpoint of cash needs or the way we think about capital allocation, nothing has changed.

從現金需求或我們對資本配置的看法來看，一切都沒有改變。

And so when we announced that program, we said we would complete it by the middle of 2018.

因此，當我們宣布該計劃時，我們表示將在 2018 年年中完成。

And you can see with the progress we've made, we are on track to do that.

你可以看到我們已經取得的進展，我們正在努力做到這一點。

And so really nothing has changed either from a cash needs or cast priorities or from the capital allocation process.

因此，無論是現金需求、演員優先事項還是資本分配過程，都沒有任何改變。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And just one more on iQOS, and thanks for the prior updates that you have been providing this call.

還有一個關於 iQOS 的內容，感謝您提供此電話的先前更新。

But you had mentioned already some of the learnings you are drawing from other markets as you look around the world and plan for launch in the US.

但是您已經提到了您在環顧世界併計劃在美國推出時從其他市場汲取的一些經驗。

I was wondering if there was anything unique to your strengths in the US that you might also be uniquely positioned to deploy.

我想知道您在美國的優勢是否有任何獨特之處，您也可能具有獨特的部署優勢。

And I'm thinking specifically of your mobile app and your digital activation capabilities and how that may play into any rollout of iQOS and how that may differ from other rollouts we've seen around the world.

我正在特別考慮您的移動應用程序和您的數字激活功能，以及它們如何影響 iQOS 的任何推出，以及它與我們在世界各地看到的其他推出有何不同。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, that's a good question.

是的，這是個好問題。

We do -- as you know, we have discussed previously we have a strong digital marketing team.

我們確實 - 如您所知，我們之前已經討論過我們擁有一支強大的數字營銷團隊。

And I'm really proud of the work they are doing on the core business.

我為他們在核心業務上所做的工作感到非常自豪。

And you're right to think that there are lots of applications that if you are trying to communicate and educate consumers about what products are, that digital is the way to go.

你認為有很多應用程序是正確的，如果你試圖就產品是什麼進行溝通和教育消費者，那麼數字化就是要走的路。

It has to be done empirically and responsibly, of course.

當然，它必須憑經驗和負責任地完成。

I don't think anybody would be surprised to learn that we are considering that and others.

得知我們正在考慮這一點和其他方面，我認為任何人都不會感到驚訝。

We have I think a significant competitive advantage in our sales force.

我認為我們的銷售隊伍具有顯著的競爭優勢。

It's large.

它很大。

They are very talented, they are very well led, and so naturally we would be thinking as we go to market about how we can use that to help iQOS be successful.

他們非常有才華，他們被很好地領導，所以當我們進入市場時，我們自然會思考如何利用它來幫助 iQOS 取得成功。

I think we have excellent relationships with our trade partners.

我認為我們與貿易夥伴有著良好的關係。

That's another area that is going to require a lot of thinking about how we take iQOS to market and working with our trade partners.

這是另一個需要大量思考我們如何將 iQOS 推向市場並與我們的貿易夥伴合作的領域。

So those are all areas of inspection.

所以這些都是檢查的領域。

And you are thinking about it the right way, which is what is it that we have that we can use to the best effect to make iQOS a big success.

您正在以正確的方式思考它，這就是我們擁有的東西，我們可以利用它來發揮最佳效果，使 iQOS 取得巨大成功。

Very good, thank you.

非常感謝。

Chris Growe, Stifel.

克里斯·格羅，Stifel。

I had a question for you, if I could, first in relation to pricing.

如果可以的話，我有一個關於定價的問題。

There was a little larger price increase taken back in November.

11 月份價格上漲幅度較大。

And I know that could be beneficial for profitability, but I suspect you want to reinvest some of that.

我知道這可能有利於盈利，但我懷疑你想再投資其中的一部分。

At the same time, you have a couple cost savings plans that you're also reinvesting back in the business.

同時，您還有一些成本節約計劃，您也可以將這些計劃重新投資於業務。

So I wanted to understand with that incremental pricing, do we think about that as being another lever, if you will, for you to reinvest back in the business?

所以我想通過增量定價來了解，我們是否認為這是另一個槓桿，如果你願意的話，可以讓你重新投資於業務？

And are there any areas you are trying to accelerate your investment beyond what you already talked about?

除了您已經談到的之外，您是否正在嘗試加速投資的任何領域？

Yes, thanks for the question, Chris.

是的，謝謝你的問題，克里斯。

This is Billy.

這是比利。

From a standpoint of our productivity, as we previously talked about, some of that productivity would fall to the bottom line, some from a reinvestment.

正如我們之前所說，從我們的生產力的角度來看，其中一些生產力將下降到底線，一些來自再投資。

I wouldn't read too much into any specific individual price increase.

我不會過多解讀任何具體的個人價格上漲。

We think about pricing over the long term, and so we make those decisions for that in that regard.

我們考慮長期定價，因此我們在這方面做出這些決定。

And it is really to balance for our long-term financial goals, so that 7 to 9 through time.

而且它真的是為了平衡我們的長期財務目標，讓 7 到 9 通時間。

Okay.

好的。

You have a very narrow price gap today as well between, say, Marlboro and discount products.

今天，萬寶路和折扣產品之間的價格差距也非常小。

And is that playing into the view that you can take a little bit more pricing in the short run while that gap is quite low.

並且認為您可以在短期內採取更多定價，而這種差距非常低。

Yes, you know, I was looking at the housekeeping that we put out.

是的，你知道，我在看我們推出的客房服務。

If you look -- Chris, you have probably seen this this morning, but when you look at what happened to the Marlboro net pack price year over year it was up 12 and the lowest effective -- that was $0.12 and then lowest effective was up $0.16.

如果你看 - 克里斯，你今天早上可能已經看到了，但是當你查看萬寶路淨包裝價格同比發生的變化時，它上漲了 12 美元，最低有效 - 那是 0.12 美元，然後最低有效價格上漲0.16 美元。

So it's really just the math that narrowed the price gap.

因此，縮小價格差距實際上只是數學。

But as you know, we're trying to maximize income, and to the extent that pricing is an element of that, we are always mindful of that.

但如您所知，我們正在努力實現收入最大化，並且就定價是其中的一個因素而言，我們始終牢記這一點。

Okay.

好的。

I just had one follow-up question.

我只有一個後續問題。

As we think about the California tax increase going into place in April, should we think -- are there -- are you likely to experience an inventory build prior to that?

當我們考慮到 4 月份加州的稅收增加時，我們是否應該考慮 - 是否存在 - 在此之前您可能會經歷庫存增加嗎？

Or anything that could really distort the first quarter and maybe actually help it if they are able to build inventory prior to the tax increase?

或者任何可能真正扭曲第一季度的事情，如果他們能夠在增稅之前建立庫存，可能實際上會有所幫助？

Yes, Chris.

是的，克里斯。

This is Billy.

這是比利。

We don't project any significant changes in inventory.

我們預計庫存不會發生任何重大變化。

You know they always fluctuate over a shorter time period.

您知道它們總是在較短的時間內波動。

That SET does go into place April 1. I do think it has a floor tax provision in it that tends to moderate any inventory movements in a short-term basis.

該 SET 確實在 4 月 1 日生效。我確實認為它有一個底稅條款，傾向於在短期內緩和任何庫存變動。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for your time.

感謝您的時間。

Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

馬修·格蘭傑，摩根士丹利。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

I just had two follow-ups on things that have come up earlier in the call.

我剛剛對電話會議早些時候提出的事情進行了兩次跟進。

First, on iQOS, you have talked about a number of dynamics that you have taken into account in the EPS guidance for next year.

首先，在 iQOS 上，您談到了您在明年 EPS 指導中考慮的一些動態。

Beyond that equity income and the tax rate, etc., how much of a spending contingency are you building into your 2017 plans for some of that commercialization spending on iQOS and continuing to build up that infrastructure?

除了股權收入和稅率等之外，您在 2017 年計劃中為 iQOS 的一些商業化支出和繼續建立基礎設施建設了多少支出應急計劃？

Well, gosh, Matt, if I told you, I would have to tell everyone, wouldn't I?

好吧，天哪，馬特，如果我告訴你，我將不得不告訴所有人，不是嗎？

So we're just not going to -- I appreciate the question.

所以我們不會——我很欣賞這個問題。

But we can't -- we're just not going to lay that out, as you can appreciate.

但我們不能——我們只是不打算把它列出來，你可以理解。

Good try, though.

不過，很好的嘗試。

Yes, I know.

是的，我知道。

No, is it small, medium, large.

不，是小，中，大。

I don't really need an absolute dollar figure.

我真的不需要一個絕對的美元數字。

Okay.

好的。

I'm digging deep here.

我在這裡深入挖掘。

I don't know if anyone is after me,.

不知道有沒有人追我

(laughing) I think I'll maybe just ask you to go to the next question.

（笑）我想我可能會問你下一個問題。

but -- on California, just from a portfolio standpoint, is there any sense you can give us of whether you are materially overindexed or underindexed in any way to the state?

但是 - 在加利福尼亞，僅從投資組合的角度來看，您是否可以告訴我們您是否以任何方式對該州進行了實質性的過度索引或索引不足？

My sense is that you are moderately overindexed in California from a volume perspective, but not sure if that is a fair characterization.

我的感覺是，從數量的角度來看，你在加利福尼亞的索引被適度過度，但不確定這是否是一個公平的描述。

We are strong in California, you are right.

我們在加利福尼亞很強大，你是對的。

Okay.

好的。

All right, I'll leave it there.

好吧，我把它留在那裡。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Michael Lavery, CLSA.

邁克爾·拉弗里，里昂證券。

Just wanted to follow-up on the Nat Sherman expansion a little bit.

只是想稍微跟進一下 Nat Sherman 的擴展。

Can you just give some sense of your execution plans there?

你能在這裡談談你的執行計劃嗎？

Is it primarily in distribution, push?

它主要是在分發，推送嗎？

Where is it strong now?

現在哪裡強了？

Where would it sit on the shelf set?

它會放在架子上的什麼位置？

Would you integrate it with your current shelf set, and what kind of timing would that take?

你會將它與你當前的架子集整合在一起嗎？這需要什麼樣的時間？

And what are some of the marketing initiatives you would expect to put behind that?

您希望在其背後採取哪些營銷計劃？

You know, I would like to tell you more, but honestly, the close was just so recently, we are working through all of that now.

你知道，我想告訴你更多，但老實說，收盤才剛剛結束，我們現在正在努力解決所有這些問題。

But I can help you, I think, understand what we're trying to do which is there is -- they have got very nice brands and they are differentiated from the current portfolio in smokeable.

但我認為，我可以幫助你了解我們正在嘗試做的事情——他們有非常好的品牌，並且與目前的可吸煙產品組合有所不同。

They tend to be sold a lot, as you probably know, in tobacco stores and some other niche locations.

正如您可能知道的那樣，它們往往在煙草店和其他一些利基場所出售。

There's no reason that they can't be distributed more widely, and I think that would definitely help the brand.

沒有理由不能更廣泛地分發它們，我認為這肯定會對品牌有所幫助。

I think when you put them in with a sales force like the one that Altria has, you would expect for there to be a good distribution growth there.

我認為，當您將他們與奧馳亞這樣的銷售團隊合作時，您會期望那裡的分銷增長良好。

And you know, we are very excited about it, but we're just not in a position to lay out the strategy for 2017.

你知道，我們對此感到非常興奮，但我們無法制定 2017 年的戰略。

We have just really closed on it, although they are fast at it over there.

我們剛剛真正關閉了它，儘管他們在那裡很快。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then on iQOS, I know we have touched on some of these, but can you give some context around some of the potential economics for that.

然後在 iQOS 上，我知道我們已經談到了其中的一些，但你能否就一些潛在的經濟學提供一些背景信息。

And how it might compare to the rest of the portfolio?

以及它與其他投資組合的比較如何？

Is there a substantial royalty, and if so, is there flexibility in how you would think about pricing?

是否有可觀的特許權使用費，如果有，您對定價的看法是否有靈活性？

What's the right way to think about how you manage that relative to the other pieces of your portfolio?

相對於投資組合的其他部分，考慮如何管理它的正確方法是什麼？

Yes, I think -- Michael, when you think about the way we manage our portfolio, we like high-margin businesses, we like profitability.

是的，我認為——邁克爾，當您考慮我們管理投資組合的方式時，我們喜歡高利潤業務，我們喜歡盈利能力。

You can see from the strategies we reiterate over and over again.

您可以從我們一遍又一遍地重申的策略中看到。

It is way too early to get into that discussion with iQOS.

現在與 iQOS 進行討論還為時過早。

Remember, that application was just filed.

請記住，該申請剛剛提交。

Commercialization would be towards the end of this year at the earliest into next year.

商業化最早將在今年年底到明年。

So we still have a while to go before we can get into those details.

所以我們還有一段時間才能進入這些細節。

But thank you for the question.

但謝謝你的問題。

And then just one last one.

然後只是最後一個。

On any costs associated with the smokeless recall, would it be reasonable to assume that those would be treated as one-time items excluded from adjusted earnings?

關於與無菸召回相關的任何成本，是否可以合理地假設這些將被視為一次性項目，不包括在調整後的收益中？

I think again, Michael, not to push you off into the future, but we just announced that recall.

我再想一想，邁克爾，不是為了把你推到未來，但我們剛剛宣布了召回。

We're in the process of gathering all of that.

我們正在收集所有這些。

Rest assured we felt comfortable issuing the guidance we did this morning, but to talk about how we're going to treat that cost on a go-forward basis is too early.

請放心，我們對發布今天早上所做的指導感到滿意，但是談論我們將如何在前進的基礎上處理該成本還為時過早。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

We will now open the call to members of the media.

我們現在將向媒體成員開放電話。

(Operator Instructions) Adam Spielman, Citi.

（操作員說明）Citi 的 Adam Spielman。

Thank you for the follow-up question.

感謝您的後續問題。

Very quickly, if I look at your guidance this year, you have got a $0.06 range.

很快，如果我看一下你今年的指導，你就會得到 0.06 美元的範圍。

In previous years, you have had a $0.05 range.

在前幾年，您的價格範圍為 0.05 美元。

I guess that implies that you see a little bit more uncertainty for 2017 than you did this time last year.

我想這意味著你在 2017 年看到的不確定性比去年這個時候要多一些。

I was just wondering where you think the range of uncertainty has widened.

我只是想知道你認為不確定性範圍擴大到了哪裡。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I actually wouldn't read that into our guidance at all.

實際上，我根本不會將其讀入我們的指導中。

As a matter of fact, what I would read into the guidance, just for historical reference, this is the strongest guidance we have come out with in January I think in the last eight or nine years.

事實上，我會在指導中讀到的內容，僅供歷史參考，這是我認為在過去八九年中我們在一月份提出的最強有力的指導。

And I think that is actually what should be read into the guidance.

我認為這實際上是應該讀入指南的內容。

I wouldn't read anything into that range at all.

我根本不會在那個範圍內讀到任何東西。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

And actually a follow-up question related to the previous one.

實際上是與前一個問題相關的後續問題。

Obviously when you're preparing your guidance, you have to make some assumptions about your beer business, previously SAB, now ABI.

顯然，當您準備指導時，您必須對您的啤酒業務做出一些假設，以前是 SAB，現在是 ABI。

And I'm just wondering whether the way you thought about the range of outcomes that you are going to get from beer has altered.

我只是想知道你對啤酒所獲得的結果範圍的看法是否已經改變。

Or whether you are adopting exactly the same mechanical approach now with ABI as you used to with SAB.

或者您現在對 ABI 採用的機械方法是否與過去對 SAB 的機械方法完全相同。

Yes, I think from a standpoint of -- you know we don't guide down to that level, but to explain how we build it into our guidance, you are right.

是的，我認為從一個角度來看——你知道我們不會引導到那個水平，但要解釋我們如何將它構建到我們的指導中，你是對的。

We build a range of scenarios for all of the factors that we incorporate into guidance.

我們為我們納入指導的所有因素構建了一系列場景。

So we ran a range of scenarios on those very similar to the way we would have with SAB.

因此，我們運行了一系列與 SAB 非常相似的場景。

The only difference is we have a one-quarter accounting lag.

唯一的區別是我們有四分之一的會計滯後。

And so the fourth quarter of 2016 will be recognized in 2017, and then that lag will carry forward.

因此，2016 年第四季度將在 2017 年得到確認，然後這種滯後將延續下去。

We will have a full four quarters in 2017.

我們將在 2017 年整整四個季度。

One quarter will be from the fourth quarter 2016 and the first three quarters of 2017.

一個季度將從 2016 年第四季度和 2017 年前三個季度開始。

So that's the way we incorporate into guidance.

這就是我們納入指導的方式。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Jenny Kaplan, Bloomberg.

珍妮卡普蘭，彭博社。

Thank you so much for taking the call.

非常感謝您接聽電話。

Given the potential timeline for iQOS in the US, I am wondering what are your plans for bulking up customer support, given some of the technical difficulties faced by PMI, for example, when they first launched in Japan.

鑑於 iQOS 在美國的潛在時間表，鑑於 PMI 面臨的一些技術難題，例如，當他們首次在日本推出時，我想知道您有什麼計劃來擴大客戶支持。

And kind of the growing pains in getting customers accustomed to the new product.

以及讓客戶習慣新產品的成長之痛。

How do you deal with creating that tech support that is obviously not needed for cigarettes?

您如何處理創建捲菸顯然不需要的技術支持？

Thanks for that question.

謝謝你的問題。

I guess I would refer back to the remarks I made earlier this morning, which is all of that is under consideration right now.

我想我會回顧一下我今天早上早些時候發表的言論，這一切都在考慮之中。

We have the benefit of working closely with PMI to gain the learnings that they have gained in that regard.

我們受益於與 PMI 密切合作，以獲得他們在這方面獲得的經驗。

And we're looking at the tools that we have available at our disposal and thinking about how best to match those goals with the tools that we have.

我們正在研究我們可以使用的工具，並考慮如何最好地將這些目標與我們擁有的工具相匹配。

And I'm confident that with the great work we are doing with PMI and our existing business, we know a lot about this consumer set that we will be able to solve for great deal of that.

我相信，通過我們與 PMI 和我們現有業務所做的出色工作，我們對這個消費者群體了解很多，我們將能夠解決很多問題。

So we're working on that now.

所以我們現在正在努力。

Got it.

知道了。

Is there -- just a quick follow-up.

有沒有 - 只是一個快速的跟進。

Is there any sense of like a need to hire more people or different kinds of people in order to deal with that?

是否有需要雇傭更多人或不同類型的人來解決這個問題？

I guess the way I would think about it is you always have a -- it's a question of how you're going to deploy your resources against your most important initiatives.

我想我的想法是你總是有一個問題 - 你將如何針對最重要的計劃部署資源。

You may have heard us say earlier in the call that a dedicated commercialization team, for example, to work on iQOS because it's their job to get up every day and come to work and think about how to make iQOS a success.

您可能已經聽到我們早些時候在電話會議中說過，一個專門的商業化團隊，例如，致力於 iQOS，因為他們的工作是每天起床並開始工作並思考如何使 iQOS 取得成功。

So it's not about more as much as it is, I think, about having the right people working in the right focused way.

因此，我認為，重要的是讓合適的人以正確的專注方式工作。

And I'm pretty confident that we have that.

我非常有信心我們擁有這一點。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall for any closing comments.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉回比爾馬歇爾先生的任何結束意見。

Thank you all for joining our call this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。

If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at investor relations.

如果您有任何後續問題，請通過投資者關係聯繫我們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。