Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. And welcome to Mach Natural Resources first-quarter 2026 earnings call. During this morning's call, the speakers will be making forward-looking statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding expectations, projections, future performance, and the assumptions underlying such statements.

    各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。歡迎參加 Mach Natural Resources 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。在今天上午的電話會議中,發言人將作出前瞻性陳述,該等陳述無法透過現有資訊加以確認,包括關於預期、預測、未來表現,以及該等陳述所依據之假設的陳述。

  • Please note, a number of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from their forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release and in other SEC filings. For a further discussion of risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ from those in such forward-looking statements, please read the company's filings with the SEC.

    請注意,多項因素可能導致實際結果與其前瞻性陳述存在重大差異,包括我們新聞稿及其他向 SEC 提交之文件中所識別並討論的因素。如需進一步了解可能導致實際結果與該等前瞻性陳述所述結果不同的風險與不確定性,請閱讀本公司向 SEC 提交的文件。

  • Please recognize that except as required by law, they undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements. They may refer to some non-GAAP financial measures in today's discussion. For reconciliation from non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please reference their press release and supplemental tables, which are available on Mach's website and their 10-Q, which will also be available on their website when filed.

    請理解,除法律要求外,本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述之義務,且您不應對該等陳述過度依賴。他們在今日討論中可能會提及部分非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。如需將非 GAAP 財務衡量指標調節至最直接可比的 GAAP 指標,請參閱其新聞稿與補充表格(可於 Mach 官網取得)以及其 10-Q;10-Q 於提交後亦將在其網站提供。

  • Today's speakers are Tom Ward, CEO; and Kevin White, CFO. Tom will give an introduction and overview. Kevin will discuss Mach's financial results, and then the call will be open for questions.

    今日發言人為執行長 Tom Ward 與財務長 Kevin White。Tom 將進行引言與概覽。Kevin 將討論 Mach 的財務結果,之後將開放提問。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Tom Ward. Tom.

    接下來,我將把電話會議交給 Tom Ward 先生。Tom。

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Daryl. Welcome to Mach Natural Resources first-quarter earnings update. Each quarter, we reiterate the company's four strategic pillars that have guided us since our founding in 2017. The first pillar I will discuss is disciplined execution. We bought only free cash-flowing assets at discounts to the producing properties PV-10.

    謝謝你,Daryl。歡迎參加 Mach Natural Resources 第一季財報更新。每一季,我們都會重申自 2017 年成立以來引導我們的公司四大策略支柱。我首先要談的第一個支柱是嚴謹的執行。我們只在以低於產出資產 PV-10 的折價水準,收購能產生自由現金流的資產。

  • This allowed us to purchase producing assets without paying for any upside even though, over time, we have proven significant upside exists. Each year, Mach publishes every well we've drilled and the overall IRR based on the year's price for oil and gas. We've averaged approximately 50% rates of return on drilling program since our program started in 2018. Said another way, we've invested more than $1.3 billion of properties that others would give no value to and returned excellent results. You can see that on page 9 of our investor presentation, that our free cash flow breakeven pricing is best-in-class for both oil and natural gas.

    這使我們得以在不為任何上行潛力付費的情況下收購產出資產,儘管隨著時間推移,我們已證明確實存在顯著的上行空間。每年,Mach 都會公布我們鑽探的每一口井,以及以當年度油氣價格計算的整體 IRR。自 2018 年計畫啟動以來,我們的鑽探計畫平均報酬率約為 50%。換句話說,我們已投資超過 13 億美元於其他人可能不會賦予價值的資產,並取得優異成果。您可在我們投資人簡報第 9 頁看到,我們的自由現金流損益兩平價格在原油與天然氣兩方面皆屬同業最佳。

  • It is rare, if not unheard of, to be a leader in both. It would be difficult to duplicate what we have built. In 2017, we had a strong opinion that the market was entering a time of distress. We focused on buying free cash flow at valuations, most sellers would not even consider at first. We called it the stages of grief.

    能同時在兩者領先相當罕見,甚至可說前所未聞。要複製我們所建立的成果將非常困難。2017 年,我們堅信市場正進入困境時期。我們專注於以多數賣方起初甚至不會考慮的估值,收購自由現金流。我們稱之為「悲傷的階段」。

  • Ultimately, we did not deal with management teams, but their lenders. Either through forced sales or the 363 bankruptcy process, we did not anticipate the COVID event, but we did anticipate investor rejection of our industry from the poor results of the previous decade, chasing growth with high debt levels. The result was that our initial unitholders prospered by receiving more than twice their investment through distributions and still owning a company with an enterprise value of more than $3 billion. The purchases we have made continue to bear fruit through their cash flow streams, midstream systems, land that is held by production and continued drilling on properties we did not have to pay for. Even our purchases since the IPO have been contributing to our drilling program, one would have thought that post the 2022 run up in prices that it would be hard to purchase any valuable drilling locations without paying for upside.

    最終,我們打交道的不是管理團隊,而是他們的放款人。無論是透過被迫出售或 363 破產程序,我們並未預見 COVID 事件,但我們確實預見投資人會因前十年在高負債下追逐成長而導致的糟糕結果,而拒絕我們的產業。結果是,我們最初的單位持有人透過分配獲得超過其投資兩倍的回報,且仍持有一家企業價值超過 30 億美元的公司。我們所進行的收購持續透過其現金流、管線中游系統、由生產所持有的土地,以及在我們無需為上行潛力付費的資產上持續鑽探而結出成果。即便是 IPO 之後的收購也一直在為我們的鑽探計畫做出貢獻;原本以為在 2022 年價格大幅上漲之後,要在不為上行潛力付費的情況下買到任何有價值的鑽探區位會很困難。

  • However, as we review our potential 2026 locations, we're drilling on acquisitions from XTO Paloma, Cheyenne, Flycatcher, Sabinal, and IKAV, which were all made post December 2023. The second pillar to discuss is disciplined reinvestment rate. We maintain a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of operating cash flow to optimize distributions to shareholders. We did not establish Mach to grow our production through drilling. Our drilling program is set to stabilize our production.

    然而,當我們檢視 2026 年的潛在區位時,我們正在 XTO Paloma、Cheyenne、Flycatcher、Sabinal 與 IKAV 的收購資產上鑽探,而這些收購皆發生於 2023 年 12 月之後。第二個支柱是嚴謹的再投資率。我們將再投資率維持在營運現金流的 50% 以下,以最佳化對股東的分配。我們成立 Mach 並非為了透過鑽探來擴大產量。我們的鑽探計畫旨在穩定產量。

  • As I mentioned, our inventory is best-in-class for both oil and natural gas reinvestment. In 2026, move down in natural gas is being offset by a move up in oil prices. Mach has a unique ability to react to these commodity price changes by pivoting from one commodity to another to maximize rates of return.

    如我所提,我們在原油與天然氣的再投資庫存皆屬同業最佳。2026 年天然氣價格下行,正由油價上行所抵銷。Mach 具備獨特能力,能因應這些商品價格變動,於不同商品之間轉換,以最大化報酬率。

  • Therefore, we have prioritized our drilling schedule to take advantage of these price changes. Starting May 1, we moved in our first rig to start drilling for oil in the Oswego formation in Kingfisher County, Oklahoma. This is an area that's well known to us. We've drilled more than 250 Oswego locations since 2021 with very good results. In the presentation, we're showing that a $75 flat oil, the changes in 2025 Oswego rates returned from 39% to 90%.

    因此,我們已優先安排鑽探時程,以把握這些價格變動。自 5 月 1 日起,我們投入第一座鑽機,開始在奧克拉荷馬州 Kingfisher 郡的 Oswego 地層鑽探原油。這是我們非常熟悉的區域。自 2021 年以來,我們已鑽探超過 250 個 Oswego 井位,成果相當良好。在簡報中,我們顯示在每桶 75 美元的平坦油價假設下,2025 年 Oswego 的報酬率由 39% 提升至 90%。

  • $85 flat oil prices move the program returns to 145%. We let pricing dictate where we spend capital. We will also move in a rig to drill Southern Oklahoma Ardmore Basin assets that we acquired from Cheyenne and Flycatcher purchases in 2024. The third oil-weighted rig will be moving into the Red Fork sand of Western Oklahoma. The majority of Red Fork locations were acquired by our limited leasing program and trades with others from our Cimarex acquisition in 2021.

    若油價為每桶 85 美元的平坦價格,該計畫報酬率將提升至 145%。我們讓價格決定資本支出方向。我們也將投入一座鑽機,在南奧克拉荷馬 Ardmore 盆地鑽探我們於 2024 年自 Cheyenne 與 Flycatcher 收購的資產。第三座偏重原油的鑽機將進入西奧克拉荷馬的 Red Fork 砂岩層。Red Fork 的大多數井位係透過我們有限的租賃計畫,以及自 2021 年 Cimarex 收購案所取得資產與他方進行交換而獲得。

  • This shift in drilling will amount to adding 3 oil-weighted rigs by postponing the deep Anadarko dry gas program. We may also delay the completion of our San Juan Mancos program until 2027 to add another oil rig in the Clear Fork formation from the Sabinal acquisition. By making these changes, we can keep our reinvestment level below 50% of operating cash flow in 2026 even though we remain optimistic about the long-term potential of our natural gas assets in the Deep Anadarko Basin and San Juan Basin. We now have 5 wells with more than 90 days of production in the Deep Anadarko. These 5 wells have averaged 90-day cumulative production of more than 12 million cubic feet of gas per day, while our 15 bcf gas type curve is projected to be 10.6 million cubic feet of gas per day.

    透過延後深層 Anadarko 乾氣計畫,此次鑽探轉向將相當於新增 3 座偏重原油的鑽機。我們也可能將 San Juan Mancos 計畫的完井延後至 2027 年,以便在 Clear Fork 地層(來自 Sabinal 收購案)再增加一座原油鑽機。透過這些調整,即使我們仍對深層 Anadarko 盆地與 San Juan 盆地天然氣資產的長期潛力保持樂觀,我們仍可在 2026 年將再投資水準維持在營運現金流的 50% 以下。目前我們在深層 Anadarko 已有 5 口井累積生產超過 90 天。這 5 口井的 90 天累積平均產量超過每日 1,200 萬立方英尺天然氣,而我們 150 億立方英尺(15 bcf)的天然氣型態曲線預估為每日 1,060 萬立方英尺天然氣。

  • In the San Juan, we've begun our 2026 drilling program where we have 1 rig working, drilling Mancos Shale wells. The San Juan Mancos is fast becoming known as a world-class natural gas asset with potential for meeting the growing demand that we expect to see in the Western markets over the next 5 years. We have 575,000 acres that are held by production that can be developed at any time the market allows. Currently, we will drill 7 wells during the summer's drilling window. We continue to believe that we will be substantially lower than historical drilling costs as we bring in new service providers from the Mid-Con and work with existing service providers in the San Juan to work with our dedicated staff.

    在 San Juan,我們已啟動 2026 年鑽探計畫,目前有 1 座鑽機在作業,鑽探 Mancos 頁岩井。San Juan Mancos 正迅速被視為世界級天然氣資產,具備滿足我們預期未來 5 年西部市場成長需求的潛力。我們有 575,000 英畝由生產所持有(held by production)的土地,可在市場允許時隨時開發。目前,我們將在夏季鑽探窗口期間鑽探 7 口井。隨著我們引進來自 Mid-Con 的新服務供應商,並與 San Juan 現有服務供應商及我們的專職團隊合作,我們仍相信鑽探成本將顯著低於歷史水準。

  • Our San Juan drilling program in 2025 was exceptional. We drilled 5 wells that came online last fall and have produced more than 14 Bcf of gas and continue to produce over 60 million cubic feet of gas a day. These wells have been compared to the best set of wells drilled in the US. The San Juan gives us long-term natural gas optionality. When we acquired IKAV, we inherited a volume production contract that runs through 2030.

    我們在 2025 年的聖胡安(San Juan)鑽井計畫表現卓越。我們鑽了 5 口井,於去年秋季投產,已累計生產超過 14 Bcf 的天然氣,且目前仍持續以每日超過 6,000 萬立方英尺的速度產氣。這批井被拿來與美國境內鑽出的最佳井組相提並論。聖胡安為我們提供長期的天然氣選擇權。當我們收購 IKAV 時,也承接了一份產量交付合約,期限至 2030 年。

  • Even with our limited drilling program, we can keep our production in the San Juan flat of approximately 300 million cubic feet of gas per day. We currently have approximately 65% of the volumes from the San Juan producing on this contract at a price of $1.72. If basis continues to be low, we have an effective hedge and a basis move slower that will benefit from our drilling program and time as production payment amortizes. This is one of the larger volumes of natural gas that has access to the growing Western markets as they develop. Mach has 3 million acres of land that are not going anywhere.

    即使我們的鑽井計畫規模有限,我們仍可將聖胡安的產量維持在約每日 3 億立方英尺天然氣的持平水準。目前,聖胡安約 65% 的產量是在這份合約下生產,價格為 1.72 美元。若基差持續偏低,我們等同擁有有效避險,而基差變動較慢將使我們的鑽井計畫受益,並隨著產量付款(production payment)攤銷而逐步改善。這是較大規模、可進入西部成長型市場(隨其發展)的天然氣供應量之一。Mach 擁有 300 萬英畝土地,這些資產不會消失。

  • We have time because our assets are held by production with few lease expiration dates. This large inventory of investment opportunities was the result of acquisitions made over time since 2018, and gives us maximum flexibility to choose where and when to drill to deliver the best-in-class results. Our third pillar to discuss today is to maintain financial strength. This pillar is designed to keep our leverage in check. Historically, we have kept our leverage at or below 1x.

    我們有時間,因為我們的資產多數以生產維持租約(held by production),租約到期日很少。這一大批投資機會庫存,來自我們自 2018 年以來逐步完成的收購,並讓我們具備最大彈性,可選擇在何處、何時鑽井,以交出同級最佳的成果。今天要談的第三個支柱,是維持財務實力。此支柱旨在將我們的槓桿控制在合理範圍。歷史上,我們一直將槓桿維持在 1 倍或以下。

  • The IKAV and Sabinal acquisitions last September have moved our leverage up to approximately 1.3x. Our goal is to move that ratio back to our desired level before we make any more acquisitions that require substantial debt. Therefore, our acquisition strategy is currently on hold unless we find an acquisition that's accretive to our cash available cash go for distribution, using equity to lower our debt levels. In the meantime, we can continue with our drilling program and let time move on as our leverage ratio down. We continue to have interest by sellers to exchange production for equity where we might be able to lower leverage by increasing our cash available for distribution to maintain the status quo.

    去年 9 月完成的 IKAV 與 Sabinal 收購,使我們的槓桿上升至約 1.3 倍。我們的目標是在進行任何需要大量舉債的進一步收購之前,先把該比率拉回到我們期望的水準。因此,除非我們找到能提升可供分配現金(cash available for distribution)的收購案,並以股權降低負債水準,否則我們目前暫停收購策略。同時,我們可以持續推進鑽井計畫,並讓時間推移,使槓桿比率逐步下降。我們仍持續收到賣方的興趣,希望以產量交換股權;在此情況下,我們或許能透過提高可供分配現金來降低槓桿,並維持現狀。

  • Our goal is to not move away from our current method of distribution unless we feel it is necessary. In that case, we can always use some of our distribution for debt reduction. It is safe to say that our debt levels are very manageable, but are a pebble in my shoe that I'd prefer to move away from and get back to 1x leverage.

    我們的目標是,除非我們認為有必要,否則不偏離目前的分配方式。若有需要,我們也可以隨時將部分分配用於減債。可以說,我們的負債水準非常可控,但就像鞋裡的一顆小石子,我更希望把它拿掉,回到 1 倍槓桿。

  • Our final pillar continues to be the most important, maximize distribution to equity holders. This pillar is the culmination of all we work for. Since inception, our goal is to find and acquire cash-flowing assets at distressed prices, reinvest less than 50% of our operating cash flow, keep our leverage low and maximize this pillar. We have been and continue to be successful. The evidence is in our industry-leading distribution.

    我們最後一個支柱仍是最重要的:將對股權持有人的分配最大化。此支柱是我們所有努力的最終成果。自成立以來,我們的目標是以困境價格尋找並收購能產生現金流的資產,將少於 50% 的營運現金流再投資,維持低槓桿,並將此支柱最大化。我們過去做到了,現在也持續成功。證據就在於我們領先同業的分配水準。

  • You can see this in 2 ways. Our company has had a cash return on capital invested of more than 20% every year since our inception. We have averaged 35% CROCI over the last 5 years. I believe we're in rare air here. Only a few tech companies can match our CROCI. We have also averaged 15% yield since the beginning of 2024, both are industry leading. I'll now turn the call over to Kevin to discuss the first quarter financial results.

    你可以從兩個面向看到這點。自成立以來,我們公司每年的投入資本現金報酬率(CROCI)都超過 20%。過去 5 年我們的平均 CROCI 為 35%。我認為這是非常罕見的水準。只有少數科技公司能與我們的 CROCI 匹敵。自 2024 年初以來,我們的平均殖利率也達到 15%,兩者皆為同業領先。接下來我把電話交給 Kevin,請他說明第一季財務結果。

  • Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

    Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Tom. For the quarter, our production of 158,000 BOE per day was 16% oil, 70% natural gas, and 14% NGLs. Our average realized prices were $69.73 per barrel of oil, that's a 20% increase from fourth quarter, $2.74 per Mcf of gas and $23.75 per barrel of NGLs. Of the $366 million total oil and gas revenues, the relative contribution for oil was 42%, 45% for gas, and 13% for NGLs. On the expense side, worth pointing out our lease operating expense was $101 million or only $7.12 per BOE.

    謝謝,Tom。本季我們的產量為每日 158,000 BOE,其中 16% 為原油、70% 為天然氣、14% 為 NGL(天然氣液)。我們的平均實現價格為:原油每桶 69.73 美元,較第四季上升 20%;天然氣每 Mcf 2.74 美元;NGL 每桶 23.75 美元。在總計 3.66 億美元的油氣營收中,原油貢獻占 42%,天然氣占 45%,NGL 占 13%。費用方面,值得一提的是我們的租賃營運費用(LOE)為 1.01 億美元,或每 BOE 僅 7.12 美元。

  • Cash G&A was approximately $5 million or only $0.37 per BOE. We ended the quarter with $53 million in cash and $305 million of availability under the credit facility. Total revenues, including our hedges and midstream activities totaled $286 million, adjusted EBITDA was $195 million, and we generated $170 million of operating cash flow, spent $75 million in development CapEx, which represents 40% of our operating cash flow after interest. And in the quarter, we generated $107 million of cash available for distribution, resulting in a distribution of $0.64 per unit, which will be paid on June 4 to holders of record on May 21.

    現金 G&A 約為 500 萬美元,或每 BOE 僅 0.37 美元。本季末我們持有 5,300 萬美元現金,且在信貸額度下尚有 3.05 億美元可用額度。總營收(包含避險與中游業務)合計為 2.86 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.95 億美元;我們產生 1.70 億美元的營運現金流,並投入 7,500 萬美元的開發資本支出(CapEx),相當於扣除利息後營運現金流的 40%。本季我們產生 1.07 億美元可供分配現金,對應每單位分配 0.64 美元,將於 6 月 4 日支付給 5 月 21 日登記在冊的持有人。

  • And with that, Daryl, we'll turn it back to you to open the line for questions.

    以上,Daryl,我們把電話交回給你,開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bert Donnes, William Blair.

    (接線員指示)Bert Donnes,William Blair。

  • Bertrand Donnes - Analyst

    Bertrand Donnes - Analyst

  • Wanted to see if your shift back to the kind of oilier Oswego drilling program. How quickly can that move the needle? Are you maybe at 16% oil now? Can that get to 20% to 25% oil over the next few years? Or does maybe the productivity from your gas assets kind of just offset that with higher volumes, but at the same mix?

    想請教你們轉回較偏重原油的 Oswego 鑽井計畫。這能多快產生明顯影響?你們目前原油占比大概是 16%?未來幾年能提升到 20% 到 25% 的原油占比嗎?還是說你們天然氣資產的生產力可能以更高的產量抵銷,使組合比例大致維持不變?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, not really. So it basically keeps our oil production from declining by moving to the oil side of the business. So we might grow 1% or so a year. But really, it's maintaining oil production rather than continue to see a decline.

    不,並不是那樣。基本上,轉向原油端的業務,是為了讓我們的原油產量不再下滑。因此我們可能每年成長約 1% 左右。但重點其實是維持原油產量,而不是繼續看到下滑。

  • Bertrand Donnes - Analyst

    Bertrand Donnes - Analyst

  • That's perfect. That makes sense. And then the second one, your low CapEx requirements continue to impress. I just want to maybe understand, is there inflation built into that or maybe built into your LOE, just with some of the cost changes we're seeing as a result of the Iranian conflict that maybe some of that spending may move, or do you have some of that locked in with your vendors and maybe over certain durations?

    非常好。這很合理。第二個問題,你們的低 CapEx 需求持續令人印象深刻。我想了解一下:這裡面是否已反映通膨,或反映在你們的 LOE 裡?考量到我們看到一些成本變動,可能與伊朗衝突相關,是否會使部分支出上移?或者你們是否與供應商鎖定了部分價格,並涵蓋一定期間?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We don't have anything really locked in. We can move rigs at really 30- to 45-day intervals. So we really can move back and forth from different areas as needed for higher rates of return. We are seeing some oilfield inflation. Thus, I think why it's important to move quickly before inflation hits.

    我們其實沒有把什麼真正鎖定。我們可以以大約 30 到 45 天的間隔調動鑽機。因此,我們確實可以依需要在不同區域之間來回調整,以追求更高的報酬率。我們確實看到一些油田通膨。因此我認為在通膨真正衝擊之前快速行動很重要。

  • As always, the oilfield services job is to get our rates return down to 20%, and we want to drill wells that still have. In fact, the lowest we have on the 430 curve of the oil wells we'll be drilling this year, as of the 430 curve was 80%. So it's really just chasing the best areas and spending CapEx as the -- as our operating cash flow allows us to. I think the goal of the company is that we'll allow growth if it happens, like if prices move up, but not spending more than 50% of our operating cash flow. So it's not that we're restricting growth.

    一如既往,油田服務業的工作就是把我們的報酬率壓到 20%,而我們希望鑽的井仍然能有(更高的報酬)。事實上,以 430 曲線來看,我們今年要鑽的原油井中,最低的一口井在 430 曲線下的報酬率也有 80%。所以這真的就是追逐最佳區域,並在——在我們的營運現金流允許的情況下投入 CapEx。我認為公司的目標是:如果成長自然發生——例如價格上升——我們會允許成長,但不會把超過 50% 的營運現金流拿去投入。所以並不是我們在限制成長。

  • It's our high rates of return allows us to grow by spending less, and that's just what we anticipate continuing to do. But remember, that's really because of all the assets we bought during the darker days. They continue to throw off free cash flow. Anytime you're making acquisitions at $20 oil, it just pays big dividends in years later. We'll reap those benefits for decades.

    我們的高報酬率讓我們能以更少的支出來成長,而這正是我們預期會持續做的事。但請記得,這其實是因為我們在景氣低迷的日子裡買進了那些資產。它們持續產生自由現金流。只要你在每桶20美元的油價時進行併購,幾年後就會帶來很大的回報。我們將在未來數十年收穫這些效益。

  • Bertrand Donnes - Analyst

    Bertrand Donnes - Analyst

  • That makes sense. It sounds like you're staying flexible.

    這很合理。聽起來你們會保持彈性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Scalia, Stephens.

    Michael Scalia,Stephens。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • I just wanted to see, with the new plans, maintained your guidance, do you anticipate putting out any new guidance with the shift in the drilling plans and it sounds like you might change your completion plans in the San Juan Basin. I guess when would you make that decision if you do decide to hold off on completing those wells?

    我想確認一下,在新計畫之下、你們維持既有指引的情況下,隨著鑽井計畫的調整,而且聽起來你們可能會改變在聖胡安盆地的完井計畫,你們是否預期會發布任何新的指引?我想問的是,如果你們決定暫緩完成那些井,你們大概會在什麼時候做出這個決定?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Sorry. I think, do you have the question? I don't think I caught everything. We're going to delay. We're planning on delaying the Mancos. Go ahead, Kevin.

    是的。抱歉。我想,你的問題是什麼?我覺得我沒有全部聽清楚。我們會延後。我們計畫延後Mancos。Kevin,你繼續。

  • Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

    Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, sure. Just to Mike, just to answer your question around guidance. We think the CapEx guidance is -- as you noted, as we shift to oil, we may actually see an acceleration of production versus spending the CapEx on the gas drilling, particularly in the Mancos. So we'll look to revise guidance as we get moved to the oil program, probably mid-year if and when it's appropriate. But it does just as we look at the model, those cycle times on these wells are shorter than some of our deep gas drilling.

    好的,當然。Mike,針對你關於指引的問題。我們認為資本支出(CapEx)指引——如你所說,當我們轉向石油時,相較於把資本支出花在天然氣鑽井上(特別是Mancos),我們的產量可能反而會加速。因此,當我們轉到石油方案後,我們會視情況在適當時點修正指引,可能在年中、如果且當它合適的時候。但就我們看模型而言,這些井的週期時間比我們一些深層天然氣鑽井要短。

  • So it should actually help this year's cash generation.

    所以這其實應該會有助於今年的現金創造。

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And it's not that hard of a decision. I mean, usually, I would want to -- once we spend the capital to drill a well to not leave it as a DUC, but whenever we can move to a Clear Fork location that today's prices is going to have a 100% rate of return. It's just really difficult not to defer the gas whenever basis today to San Juan is low, and we think it will improve. But still, we don't want to just guess going into the winter. So we'll probably move that until after the first of the year, then it will really depend on the Mancos weather provides as to when we can move, when we can frack.

    而且這不是一個很難的決定。我的意思是,通常我會希望——一旦我們花了資本把井鑽好,就不要把它留成DUC(已鑽未完井),但只要我們能轉去Clear Fork的井位,而以今天的價格能有100%的報酬率,在目前聖胡安的基差偏低、且我們認為會改善的情況下,要不延後天然氣真的很難。但即便如此,我們也不想在進入冬季時只是用猜的。所以我們大概會把它延到明年年初之後,接著就很看Mancos那邊的天候條件,決定我們何時能移動、何時能壓裂(frack)。

  • We can't do anything in the New Mexico side until April, I believe. But we can on Colorado side as long as we're on the Southern Ute Tribe, weather permitting. Sorry, Mike , if I didn't catch all your questions, just please ask again.

    我記得在新墨西哥那一側,直到四月我們都做不了任何事。但在科羅拉多那一側,只要我們在Southern Ute Tribe(南尤特部落)那邊、且天候允許,就可以進行。抱歉,Mike,如果我沒有聽到你所有的問題,請再問一次。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • No, that addresses it. I guess it sounds like even with the shift, there's no change to the CapEx is going to remain the same. We probably anticipate some minor shift in the mix of production is what it sounds like in certainly leave some upside for cash flow with the higher oil mix.

    不,這已經回答了。我想聽起來即使有這個轉向,資本支出不會改變,CapEx會維持不變。聽起來我們可能會看到產量組合有些小幅調整,而且較高的油品占比也會讓現金流有一些上行空間。

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, that's correct.

    是的,沒錯。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • Wanted to follow up on the Mancos. The 5 wells that you completed last year, looks like based on what you have in your presentation and what you said, Tom, they're performing extremely well. I think IKAV completed a couple of those, and you guys completed, I think, 3 of them. I wanted to see if you did, in fact, cut back on the proppant on the wells that you completed? I know you had said you felt like they were being overstimulated, and you could save some money there and want to see if those results played out the way you thought?

    我想追問一下Mancos。你們去年完成的5口井,從你們簡報上的資料以及你剛才說的,Tom,看起來它們表現非常好。我想IKAV完成了其中幾口,而你們完成了大概3口。我想確認你們是否確實在你們完成的井上減少了支撐劑(proppant)用量?我知道你之前說你覺得它們被過度刺激(overstimulated),你們可以在那裡省一些錢,也想看看結果是否如你所預期地呈現?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We did not change the amount of proppant that IKAV was using. Now IKAV did use and we will use less proppant than kind of the industry was earlier. I think that's moving towards what we're going to do. But our -- if you look at San Juan in general, there were proppant sizes up to 3,000 pounds a foot that we were using closer to 2,000 pounds, and I think it was totally adequate. So that we were able to save some money even last year just through a little -- a few other different methods, but not in the proppant size.

    我們沒有改變IKAV所使用的支撐劑用量。不過,IKAV使用的、以及我們將使用的支撐劑用量,確實比先前業界普遍做法要少。我想這正朝向我們將要採取的方向。但如果你看整體聖胡安,以前我們用到每英尺3,000磅的支撐劑用量,而我們更接近每英尺2,000磅,我認為完全足夠。因此,即使在去年,我們也能透過一些——幾個其他不同的方法省下一些錢,但不是在支撐劑用量上。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. So that line of sight --

    好的。所以那個可見度(line of sight)--

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think we saved -- I think we're saving about $1 million per location. Yes, $1.5 million per location just from our changes we made, but it was not in proppant.

    我想我們省下——我想我們每個井位大約省了100萬美元。是的,透過我們做的改變,每個井位省了150萬美元,但不是在支撐劑上。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • Got you. So you still feel good about that $15 million target that you talked about.

    了解。所以你們對你提到的1,500萬美元目標仍然有信心。

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I feel good about something lower, but we'll see. Yes, I feel good about $15 million. There's no reason to spend $15 million drilling in these wells.

    是的,我對更低的數字也有信心,但我們再看看。是的,我對1,500萬美元有信心。沒有理由在這些井上花1,500萬美元去鑽。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Grampp, Northland Capital Markets.

    Jeff Grampp,Northland Capital Markets。

  • Jeff Grampp - Analyst

    Jeff Grampp - Analyst

  • Tom, I have a question for you on the distribution strategy. It seems like, in recent history, you've kind of been comfortable maintaining the 100% payout with current leverage kind of mid-one times, but the pebble in your shoe comment makes it seem like perhaps you're maybe reconsidering that to retain some cash for debt pay down. Is that a fair comment, or how do you think about payout ratio over the next few quarters?

    Tom,我想問你關於配息策略的問題。看起來在最近一段時間,你們在槓桿大約1倍出頭的情況下,似乎一直很能接受維持100%配發;但你提到「鞋子裡的小石子」那句話,聽起來好像你們可能在重新思考,是否要保留一些現金來償還債務。這樣理解公平嗎?或者你們如何看待未來幾季的配發比率?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I hope not. I do think that over time, it takes care of itself. If you were to look at our model, actually, debt-to-EBITDA goes down as oil prices have moved. If oil prices move higher or gas goes to where I think it will, it naturally takes care of it by itself. So we always -- so the reason private credit really likes us so well is because we have so much free cash flow.

    是的,我希望不是。我確實認為,隨著時間推移,它會自行解決。如果你看我們的模型,實際上,隨著油價上移,我們的淨負債/EBITDA是下降的。如果油價再走高,或天然氣回到我認為會到的水準,它自然就會自己把問題解決。所以我們一直——私募信貸之所以這麼喜歡我們,是因為我們有非常多的自由現金流。

  • And so does if you have a 19% yield, then you may get a 10% for a while as you pay down the debt it's not the worst thing. But I'm a holder just like the rest of the unitholders, and I like having Christmas 4 times a year.

    而且如果你有19%的殖利率,那麼在你償還債務的期間,殖利率可能有一段時間變成10%,這也不是最糟的事。但我跟其他單位持有人一樣也是持有人,我喜歡一年過四次聖誕節。

  • Jeff Grampp - Analyst

    Jeff Grampp - Analyst

  • Fair enough. That sounds good. For my follow-up, it kind of sounds like the bias based on today's commodity price dynamic is to defer those gas completions and add that Clear Fork rig. But I just wanted to dive into that a bit more. When are you guys kind of targeting potentially adding that Clear Fork rig?

    說得也是。聽起來不錯。我接著想追問,依照今天的商品價格動態,你們的偏好似乎是延後那些天然氣完井,並新增那台Clear Fork鑽機。但我想再深入一點。你們大概目標在什麼時候可能新增那台Clear Fork鑽機?

  • And is it as simple as looking at gas and oil prices over the next few months in the strip in making that decision?

    而這個決策是否就只是看未來幾個月遠期曲線(strip)上的天然氣與油價來做判斷?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, fairly well made it so that it was just like yesterday. But it was -- yes, so the Clear Fork is clearly a superior rate of return at today's prices than completing the Mancos. And we could start that July 1, and have a 30-day turnaround. So more than likely, unless something changes really dramatically between now and a month from now, will delay the Mancos and bring on a Clear Fork rig.

    是的,基本上我們昨天就幾乎已經做出決定了。不過——是的,以今天的價格來看,Clear Fork的報酬率顯然優於完成Mancos。而我們可以在7月1日開始,並在30天內完成轉換。所以很可能,除非從現在到一個月後之間出現非常劇烈的變化,否則我們會延後Mancos,並啟用一台Clear Fork鑽機。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carson Coronado, Raymond James.

    Carson Coronado,Raymond James。

  • Carson Coronado - Analyst

    Carson Coronado - Analyst

  • I just wanted to see if you were trying to continue to focus M&A in the current basins you operate in, or is there a willingness to step into new basins, and does the current commodity price environment make it harder to get deals done with bid-ask spreads potentially widening?

    我只是想了解一下,你們是否仍打算持續把併購(M&A)重點放在目前營運的盆地,還是願意跨入新的盆地?另外,在目前的商品價格環境下,是否會因為可能出現買賣價差擴大而讓交易更難成交?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I don't think it's any harder to get deals done, especially the ones that we have a niche in, which is really staying away from asset-backed security projects where they can fund. So larger deals were not so good at areas of where you pay for a lot of upside. Not so good like the Marcellus or Haynesville or now even the San Juan. The areas we are pretty good at is finding assets that are $100 million to $300 million in size that others aren't chasing that we can see some distress for whatever reason. It might be that gas goes to Waha, where and ABS really can't go in and hedge very well over a period of time and they can't compete with us.

    不,我不認為交易會更難做,尤其是我們有利基的那些案子;我們的利基其實是避開那些可以用資產擔保證券(ABS)專案來融資的標的。所以大型交易在那種你要為很多上行空間付費的區域就不太好。像是 Marcellus、Haynesville,甚至現在的 San Juan,都不太好。我們比較擅長的,是去找規模在 1 億到 3 億美元、別人不追的資產,而且我們能因為某些原因看出它們有壓力(distress)。可能是天然氣價格走到 Waha;在那種情況下,ABS 其實很難在一段時間內做得很好地避險,他們也就無法跟我們競爭。

  • There's always a way to find things that work. Our issue right now is that we have too much debt to really take on more debt. So that we want to move down our debt levels so that we can get back into making those $100 million to $300 million type acquisitions. We can be more aggressive not on having to pay for upside, but more aggressive in size if the seller would want to take equity. But that's the only way we could really compete at any size.

    總是有辦法找到可行的案子。我們現在的問題是負債太多,實在很難再承擔更多負債。所以我們想先把負債水位降下來,這樣才能回到做那種 1 億到 3 億美元的收購。如果賣方願意收股權,我們可以在規模上更積極;不是在為上行空間付費這件事上更激進,而是在交易規模上更積極。但那是我們在任何規模上真正能競爭的唯一方式。

  • Jeff Grampp - Analyst

    Jeff Grampp - Analyst

  • Great. And I also had a follow-up question on maintenance CapEx. So the low decline rate definitely helps keeping the reinvestment rate under 50%. But what would be a reasonable maintenance CapEx estimate for us to use?

    了解。我還有一個關於維持性資本支出(maintenance CapEx)的追問。低遞減率確實有助於把再投資率維持在 50% 以下。但對我們來說,合理的維持性 CapEx 估計值應該用多少?

  • Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

    Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I think looking at our existing CapEx guidance really. Depending if we're measuring that based on volume, then when we're drilling gas wells, there's more volume that come into the system. And if we're drilling oil wells, the equivalent volume is a little bit lower. But again, as you mentioned, our base decline rate is probably among the lowest, if not the lowest, among the independents, and that gives us the ability to essentially stay the same size grow a little bit or shrink a little bit, but based on just half of our operating cash flow after interest.

    好的。我認為主要就看我們現有的 CapEx 指引。如果我們用產量來衡量,那麼當我們鑽天然氣井時,會有更多的產量進入系統。而如果我們鑽油井,折算的當量產量會稍微低一些。但如你所提,我們的基礎遞減率大概是獨立業者中最低、或至少是最低之一,這讓我們基本上可以維持同等規模、略微成長或略微縮小,而所需資金大致只要用到我們營運現金流在扣除利息後的一半。

  • So I'd largely equate our guidance CapEx with being kind of maintenance CapEx. It's now a little bit more productive than maintainence CapEx.

    所以我大致會把我們指引的 CapEx 視為某種維持性 CapEx。現在它其實比純粹的維持性 CapEx 還要更有生產力一點。

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, that's right. Our drilling program is designed to keep our production flattish that could be up to down to -- up 3% or 4%, down 3% or 4% depending on what prices are, but you really won't see a tremendous growth from drilling and then that allows us to distribute back more to unitholders.

    是的,沒錯。我們的鑽井計畫是設計來讓產量大致持平,可能上到 3% 或 4%,也可能下到 3% 或 4%,取決於價格,但你不會看到因為鑽井而出現很大的成長;而這也讓我們能把更多分配回給單位持有人。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ron Sanchez.

    Ron Sanchez。

  • Ron Sanchez

    Ron Sanchez

  • I was just wondering, what would be your average breakeven price on natural gas? I mean -- yeah, that's all.

    我只是想問一下,你們天然氣的平均損益兩平價格大概是多少?我是說——對,就這樣。

  • Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

    Kevin White - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. It's basically around $1.72, and we've just today posted a new investor presentation, and we have a slide on that on slide 9, where we show our breakeven for both gas drilling and oil drilling. And it's among the best of the peers. For us, as Tom has mentioned many times before, we -- those are good numbers that we're able to achieve with good cost control, but we're generally just chasing the highest internal rate of return in our portfolio.

    當然。基本上大約是 1.72 美元;而且我們今天剛發布了一份新的投資人簡報,在第 9 頁有一張投影片,展示我們在天然氣鑽井與油井鑽井的損益兩平點。這在同業中算是最好的之一。對我們而言,如 Tom 之前多次提到的——這些數字之所以能做到,是因為良好的成本控管;但我們通常只是追求投資組合中最高的內部報酬率(IRR)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Derrick Whitfield, Texas Capital.

    Derrick Whitfield,Texas Capital。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • Going back to your 4Q commentary on divestitures, does the current higher price crude environment seen today, does that change your view on the need to pursue some of the monetizations you were talking about during 4Q?

    回到你們在第四季(4Q)對資產處分的評論:以目前看到的較高油價環境來看,這是否改變你們對於需要推進一些你們在 4Q 提到的資產變現(monetizations)的看法?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Derrick, we were talking about maybe having a partner in the Deep Anadarko. I don't know if that's going to happen or not. We did go out to a few parties. The gas prices have been lower. I'm not sure that we would get paid enough to give up any production that's already flowing now.

    是的,Derrick,我們當時談到可能在 Deep Anadarko 找個合作夥伴。我不確定那是否會發生。我們確實接觸了幾個對象。天然氣價格一直比較低。我不確定我們是否能拿到足夠的對價,去放棄任何目前已經在流動(產出)的產量。

  • And I'm not really a seller at today's gas prices. So it is -- it becomes harder to do until prices move. We really weren't looking at selling any oil projects. But it was really more around could we sell some non-EBITDA generating assets like leases in order to pay down some debt. And I doubt that happens, but we'll know more next quarter.

    而且以今天的天然氣價格,我其實不太想賣。所以——在價格上來之前,這件事會變得更難做。我們其實沒有在考慮出售任何油類專案。更多是在想:我們能不能賣一些不產生 EBITDA 的資產(例如租約)來償還一些債務。我不太認為會發生,但我們下個季度會更清楚。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • That makes sense. Maybe just with respect to the Permian, while not as economic as your Oswego, are there levers there you're considering to increase production in the current environment?

    了解。再談一下二疊紀(Permian):雖然它的經濟性不如你們的 Oswego,但在目前環境下,你們是否在考慮有哪些槓桿可以用來提高那邊的產量?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. The Clear Fork is in Robertson County on the shelf. So we're having a rig there, depending on what our operating cash flow looks like and how much we -- how close we can get to 50%, we could keep a rig there for the rest of the year. We'll see how it all looks. But right now, we are going to have a rig there, moving down from Oklahoma in -- by the first of the year. So that is in the Permian and those wells are right at 100% rates of return.

    是的。Clear Fork 位於棚區(shelf)的 Robertson County。所以我們會在那邊放一座鑽機;視我們的營運現金流狀況,以及我們能把再投資率拉近 50% 到什麼程度,我們可能會讓那座鑽機在那裡一路運作到今年年底。我們會再看看整體情況。但目前,我們會在那邊配置一座鑽機,並在——到明年年初前,從奧克拉荷馬移過去。所以那是在二疊紀,而那些井的報酬率大約就在 100% 左右。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • That's great. I'm sorry, I didn't pick that up, Tom. I'm just joining the call late. But maybe one more, if I could, on service costs. I know you commented a little bit earlier on it, but just -- could you speak to what you're seeing in the Anadarko at present? And what your expectations would be if oil prices remain elevated as they are today?

    太好了。抱歉,Tom,我剛剛沒聽清楚。我比較晚才加入電話會議。但如果可以的話,我再問一個關於服務成本(service costs)的问题。我知道你稍早有稍微提到,但——你能談談你們目前在 Anadarko 看到的情況嗎?以及如果油價維持在今天這樣的高檔,你們的預期會是什麼?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. If oil prices stay where they are, it would take a fairly high gas price to make us move back to drilling gas wells. Last year, that happened as oil prices fell, but today, even at the Cal strip, 27 strip is $72, that's good enough for us to keep rigs working. So the flexibility of the moving between oil and gas is good. We have a tremendous backlog of oil locations as you're seeing now.

    可以。如果油價維持在目前水準,我們需要相當高的天然氣價格才會讓我們回去鑽天然氣井。去年油價下跌時曾出現那種情況;但今天,即便看 Cal strip,27 strip 是 72 美元,這對我們來說已足夠讓鑽機持續運作。所以在油與氣之間切換的彈性是好的。如你現在看到的,我們有非常可觀的油井井位庫存(backlog)。

  • We can move in several rigs and drill different locations across Western Oklahoma and in the Permian. So it's really just price dependent, but the -- it's really astounding that we were able to put together 2 million acres without having to pay for it in one of the most oil and natural gas rich basins in the world, in the Anadarko Basin. So that is another like our production, that will pay dividends to us for decades.

    我們可以調進好幾座鑽機,在奧克拉荷馬西部以及二疊紀的不同區塊鑽不同的井位。所以這真的就是取決於價格;但——很驚人的是,我們能在世界上最富含石油與天然氣的盆地之一——Anadarko 盆地——整合出 200 萬英畝的土地,而且幾乎不需要為此付費。所以這就像我們的產量一樣,將在未來數十年為我們帶來回報。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • Great. And Tom, just on the service cost, like what was your expectations to be in Anadarko if we remain in this higher oil price environment?

    了解。Tom,再回到服務成本:如果我們維持在這種較高油價環境下,你對 Anadarko 的服務成本預期會是什麼?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, we're seeing. You say service cost?

    是的,我們看到了。你是說服務成本?

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • Yes, service cost. My apologies.

    是的,服務成本。抱歉。

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We're seeing bits are going up, steel is going up, labor costs from -- are going up, fuel surcharges are going up. So we are starting to see the effects of inflation. We know from 2022, that comes fairly quickly. So it'll all have to be put into the calculation for how much we can drill depending on what prices were paying. So we're still using our current AFEs.

    我們看到鑽頭在漲、鋼材在漲、勞動成本也在漲、燃料附加費也在漲。所以我們開始看到通膨的影響。我們從 2022 年知道,那會來得相當快。因此,這些都必須納入計算,取決於我們支付的價格,我們能鑽多少井。所以我們仍在使用目前的 AFE。

  • We change AFE every month, depending on where prices are. We price out for every well series of wells we do. So we're very quick to react to both oil and gas prices and service costs.

    我們每個月都會依價格狀況調整 AFE。我們對每一口井、每一批我們要做的井列都會重新估價。所以我們對油氣價格與服務成本的變化反應非常迅速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

    Charles Meade,Johnson Rice。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • I got dropped from the call for some reason, too. But, Tom, you mentioned four oily plays here today. The Oswego, which you gave us a lot of detail on, but also the Ardmore, which I guess is really more the location rather than the play, the Ardmore, the Red Fork and also the Clear Fork. So can not to get down into all the details, but can you give us an idea how those plays rank in your appetite for more drilling? And how much running room you have on those?

    我也不知道為什麼,剛剛通話也被斷線了。不過,Tom,你今天提到這裡有四個偏油的區塊(plays)。Oswego 你給了我們很多細節,但還有 Ardmore(我猜那其實更像是地點而不是 play)、Ardmore、Red Fork,以及 Clear Fork。所以不想鑽進所有細節,但你能否讓我們了解一下,這些 play 在你們更積極鑽井的意願排序上大概如何?以及你們在這些 play 上還有多少可延伸的開發空間(running room)?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. The Sycamore, it's a Mississippian member of the SCOOP in the, what we call the Ardmore Basin. It's Sholem Alechem Field, basically in Stephens County, Southern Oklahoma. That's going to have very, very high rates of return at today's oil price, and they're fairly deep expensive wells, but very good. Continental has most of that area and maybe a private company, Citadel.

    當然。Sycamore 是 SCOOP 的密西西比紀(Mississippian)層段之一,位於我們所稱的 Ardmore 盆地。基本上是在奧克拉荷馬州南部 Stephens County 的 Sholem Alechem 油田。以今天的油價來看,那裡的報酬率會非常、非常高;井深較深、成本較高,但品質很好。那一帶大多是 Continental 持有,可能還有一家私人公司 Citadel。

  • But it's good. We only have three locations to drill. So then we look to have the consistent operating the next best is the Oswego, and that's more consistent and we have dozens, if not hundreds of locations left to drill in the Oswego. And we could even move from the Stephens County after we complete those wells to 2 rigs in the Oswego if oil prices remain elevated. Then the Clear Fork was -- we picked up from Sabinal would be number 3.

    但那確實不錯。我們只有三個可鑽的位置(locations)。接著我們看下一個最適合、且營運更具一致性的就是 Oswego;它更穩定,而且我們在 Oswego 還有數十個、甚至上百個位置可鑽。如果油價維持在高檔,我們在完成 Stephens County 的那些井之後,甚至可以把兩座鑽機轉到 Oswego。再來第三名是 Clear Fork——我們是從 Sabinal 取得的。

  • And that, as I mentioned, I have a rig going there in July. And then lastly, because of just a little more gas as the Western Oklahoma Red Fork, and that if gas prices will move up, it could move up in the hit parade. But today, that would be our fourth. I think even there, the Red Fork is going to be about 80% rates of return.

    如我提到的,我在 7 月會有一座鑽機到那裡作業。最後一個是西奧克拉荷馬的 Red Fork,因為那裡氣的比重稍微高一些;如果天然氣價格上來,它在排行榜上可能會往前移。但以今天來看,它會是我們的第四名。我認為即便如此,Red Fork 的報酬率也大約會有 80%。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Got it. That's great detail what I was looking for. My follow-up is on San Juan Basin, I guess, supply-demand in marketing. When you bought that asset from IKAV, in that earlier presentation, you gave us a lot of detail about where that gas can go and what the options are. But the prices are pretty tough out there right now.

    了解。這正是我想要的很棒細節。我的追問是關於 San Juan 盆地,我想是行銷端的供需。你們從 IKAV 買下那項資產時,在先前的簡報裡,你們給了我們很多細節,說明那些天然氣可以往哪裡走、有哪些選項。但目前那邊的價格相當艱困。

  • And you think a lot of gas wants to get to the Gulf Coast, but you've got the Permian and Waha between you and the Gulf Coast, if you wanted to go that way. So that's, I guess, a long intro to say what are the dynamics that we can watch from our seats on -- that would signify or could be precursors to more favorable pricing in that basin?

    而且你會覺得很多天然氣想要到墨西哥灣沿岸,但如果你想走那條路,Permian 和 Waha 會在你與墨西哥灣沿岸之間。所以我想鋪陳這麼長,是想問:我們坐在這裡可以觀察哪些動態——哪些訊號代表或可能是該盆地價格轉為更有利的前兆?

  • Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tom Ward - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I mean, at the time we bought the IKAV assets last summer, going in and closed in September, I wouldn't have thought that our basis, our hedge was a benefit. So basically, we have 65% that we bought on a long-term contract from that BP has that expires in 2030. That effectively is $1.72. And then -- but since that time, really due to weather, winter, not coming to the West, basically we almost stand alone in having the low basis of public companies with the San Juan.

    是的。我的意思是,當我們去年夏天買下 IKAV 資產、9 月完成交割時,我原本不會想到我們的基差(basis)避險會變成一項優勢。基本上,我們買下的產量中有 65% 是透過 BP 的長期合約,合約到 2030 年到期。那等同於 1.72 美元。然後——但從那之後,主要因為天氣因素,冬季沒有來到西部,基本上在 San Juan 的上市公司裡,我們幾乎是少數擁有低基差的。

  • So the -- that now has hovered around $1 of what we receive now. But I do think that's coming back. So -- but to answer your question, it's really more pipe getting out going West, having a larger LNG facility in Mexico, getting gas. I think the Asian sales point will be wanting more Western gas coming across LNG to Asia. And that all happens over time.

    所以——我們現在實際收到的價格,基差大概徘徊在 1 美元左右。但我確實認為那會回升。所以——回到你的問題,關鍵其實是更多管線把氣往西送、墨西哥有更大型的 LNG 設施,把天然氣輸送出去。我認為亞洲的銷售端會希望有更多西部天然氣透過 LNG 跨海到亞洲。而這些都需要時間逐步發生。

  • And so it's really a pretty good for us now that we didn't have to pay for that gas, and we bought it at $1.72 or less. And so as it amortizes out over time, that gives us time to not only have the LNG market expanding, which I believe it's going to. There's a new pipe going across the Navajo Nation, I believe, or will be FID'd. And then along with that, getting gas to the data center build-outs in Southern California, especially the Phoenix market, which seems to be expanding. There's some interest in even getting our gas up to the West into more of the, I guess, the upper western markets and even into the Pacific Northwest.

    因此,對我們來說現在其實相當不錯,因為我們不必為那部分天然氣付出額外成本,我們買進的等效價格是 1.72 美元或更低。而且隨著時間推移逐步攤銷,這也給了我們時間,讓 LNG 市場擴張——我相信它會擴張。我相信會有一條穿越納瓦霍族保留地的新管線,或將會做出 FID(最終投資決策)。此外,還包括把天然氣供應到南加州資料中心的建置需求,尤其是鳳凰城市場,似乎正在擴張。甚至也有人對把我們的天然氣往西送到更上游的西部市場、乃至太平洋西北地區感興趣。

  • So there will be an expansion of gas coming out of the West and really between Hilcorp and us in San Juan, we control the vast majority of it. So it's a good place to be as long as you're patient. It's a five-year program.

    所以西部外送天然氣將會擴張;而在 San Juan,基本上 Hilcorp 和我們掌控了其中絕大部分。因此,只要你有耐心,這是一個很好的位置。這是一個五年期的計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you so much. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And with that, that does bring our call to a close. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

    非常感謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。也因此,我們的電話會議就到這裡告一段落。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛斷電話,祝您今天剩下的時間愉快。