Marcus & Millichap Inc (MMI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Marcus & Millichap's third-quarter 2024 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Marcus & Millichap 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Jacques Cornet with ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹 ICR 的 Jacques Cornet。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Marcus & Millichap's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With us today are: President and Chief Executive Officer, Hessam Nadji; and Chief Financial Officer, Steve DeGennaro.

謝謝你，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加 Marcus & Millichap 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有： 總裁兼執行長 Hessam Nadji；和首席財務官史蒂夫德根納羅。

Before I turn the call over to management, please remember that our prepared remarks and the responses to questions may contain forward-looking statements. Words such as may, will, expect, believe, estimate, anticipate, goal and variations of these words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

在我將電話轉交給管理層之前，請記住，我們準備好的評論和對問題的答覆可能包含前瞻性陳述。諸如「可能」、「將」、「期望」、「相信」、「估計」、「預期」、「目標」等詞語以及這些詞語的變體和類似表達方式旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

Actual results can differ materially from those implied by such forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, general economic conditions and commercial real estate market conditions, the company's ability to retain and attract transaction professionals; the company's ability to retain its business philosophy and partnership culture amid competitive pressures, the company's ability to integrate new agents and sustain its growth and other factors discussed in the company's public filings, including its annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 28, 2024.

由於多種因素，實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述所暗示的結果有重大差異，包括但不限於總體經濟狀況和商業房地產市場狀況、公司保留和吸引交易專業人士的能力；本公司在競爭壓力下保留其經營理念和合作夥伴文化的能力、公司整合新代理商和維持成長的能力以及公司公開文件中討論的其他因素，包括向證券和證券交易委員會提交的10-K 表格年度報告交易委員會於 2024 年 2 月 28 日。

Although the company believes the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can make no assurance that its expectations will be attained. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

儘管該公司認為此類前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是基於合理的假設，但它不能保證其預期能夠實現。本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

In addition, certain financial information presented on this call represents non-GAAP financial measures. The company's earnings release, which was issued this morning and is available on the company's website, represents a reconciliation to the appropriate GAAP measures and explains why the company believes such non-GAAP measures are useful to investors. The conference call is being webcast. The webcast link is available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.marcusmillichap.com, along with the slide presentation you may reference during the prepared remarks.

此外，本次電話會議中提供的某些財務資訊代表非公認會計準則財務指標。該公司今天早上發布並可在公司網站上查閱的收益報告代表了對適當公認會計準則衡量標準的調整，並解釋了為什麼該公司認為此類非公認會計準則衡量標準對投資者有用。電話會議正在網路直播。網路廣播連結可在公司網站 www.marcusmillichap.com 的投資者關係部分獲取，同時還提供您可以在準備發言時參考的幻燈片簡報。

With that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to CEO, Hessam Nadji.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給執行長 Hessam Nadji。

Thank you, Jacques. On behalf of the entire Marcus & Millichap team, good morning, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. MMI's results showed modest improvement in the third quarter, setting the stage for a measured but sustainable recovery in the transaction and financing markets. We believe that the underpinnings of a recovery cycle include the return of capital to the market as prices adjust, the Federal Reserve's shift towards lowering interest rates, MMI's record exclusive listing inventory and notable improvement in our pipeline.

謝謝你，雅克。我代表整個 Marcus & Millichap 團隊，早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。MMI 的業績顯示第三季略有改善，為交易和融資市場穩步但可持續的復甦奠定了基礎。我們認為，復甦週期的基礎包括隨著價格調整資本回流市場、聯準會轉向降低利率、MMI 創紀錄的獨家上市庫存以及我們的管道的顯著改善。

Revenue for the third quarter was $169 million, up 4% compared to last year, with adjusted EBITDA at breakeven and a net loss of $5.4 million. In addition to another sequential improvement, this is the first quarter with year-over-year revenue growth since the onset of the market disruption 2 years ago. Our EPS remains challenged by costs related to investments in talent, technology and business development. We believe these initiatives and our strategy to remain on offense during the downturn will provide leverage in the recovery and strengthen our long-term competitiveness. The expensing of capital deployed for talent retention and acquisition is particularly important as revenue production among the leading producers we have added and retained has been greatly hampered in the downturn. We expect these top professionals to contribute significantly to the company's revenue growth in the recovery, enhance leverage and support market share gains.

第三季營收為1.69億美元，較去年成長4%，調整後的EBITDA達到損益平衡，淨虧損540萬美元。除了另一個環比改善之外，這是自兩年前市場混亂開始以來第一個收入同比增長的季度。我們的每股盈餘仍受到人才、技術和業務發展投資相關成本的挑戰。我們相信，這些舉措以及我們在經濟低迷時期保持進攻的策略將為經濟復甦提供槓桿，並增強我們的長期競爭力。用於人才保留和收購的資本支出尤其重要，因為我們增加和保留的領先生產商的收入生產在經濟低迷時期受到極大阻礙。我們預計這些頂尖專業人士將為公司在復甦中的收入成長做出重大貢獻，提高槓桿率並支持市場份額的成長。

The third quarter brought more conviction that capital is moving off the sidelines driven by 4 key catalysts:

第三季讓人們更加確信，在四個關鍵催化劑的推動下，資本正在退出場外：

First, price adjustments across various property types have made current valuations more attractive relative to replacement costs and the market peak in March 2022. It appears that investor psychology is finally shifting toward missing out on buying opportunities while more sellers are coming to terms with realistic pricing. The momentum of institutional capital returning to the market, which we noted last quarter, continued to build during the third quarter. At the same time, private investors still grappled with tight lending requirements by banks and credit unions. Our results for the quarter correlate with this trend as Private Client revenue declined 4.3% year-over-year, while middle market and larger transaction revenue increased 4% and 23.5%, respectively.

首先，各種房產類型的價格調整使得當前估值相對於重置成本和 2022 年 3 月的市場高峰更具吸引力。投資人的心理似乎最終轉向錯失買進機會，而更多賣家也開始接受現實的定價。我們上季度注意到的機構資本重返市場的勢頭在第三季度繼續增強。與此同時，私人投資者仍在努力應對銀行和信用合作社嚴格的貸款要求。我們本季的業績與此趨勢相關，私人客戶收入較去年同期下降 4.3%，而中型市場和大型交易收入分別成長 4% 和 23.5%。

Second, the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut decisively signaled the beginning of an easing cycle followed by yesterday's 0.25 point reduction. The Fed will likely move more gradually on further rate cuts due to a still strong economy and expectations that the election outcome may bring more inflationary policies.

其次，聯準會降息50個基點決定性地標誌著寬鬆週期的開始，隨後昨天又降息了0.25個基點。由於經濟依然強勁以及對選舉結果可能帶來更多通膨政策的預期，聯準會可能會更加逐步地進一步降息。

Third, the supply-demand dynamics are generally healthy across most property types with a few exceptions due to overbuilding. Construction starts are expected to decline significantly in 2025 and 2026, which will reduce new supply. This will be particularly positive for multifamily and industrial properties, which has seen the most construction in recent years.

第三，大多數房地產類型的供需動態總體上是健康的，但由於過度建設而出現了一些例外。預計 2025 年和 2026 年開工量將大幅下降，這將減少新增供應。這對於近年來建造最多的多戶住宅和工業地產尤其有利。

And lastly, a combination of pent-up demand from postponed transactions after 2 years of a dysfunctional market and increasing distressed situations are driving more transactions.

最後，市場功能失調兩年後推遲交易而被壓抑的需求以及日益惡化的困境正在推動更多交易。

During the quarter, the company closed over 1,300 brokerage transactions totaling $8.5 billion in volume. Shopping centers, industrial, self-storage and institutional apartments serviced by our IPA division saw the most improvement. Single-tenant retail and smaller apartment sales remain hampered due to restrictive lending and persistent bid-ask spreads. Financing revenue was up 19.3% and transactions increased by 15% with total financing volume up 12% for the quarter. We closed over 300 financing transactions and secured capital for our clients through 150 separate lenders in 1 quarter. These numbers highlight improved financing capacity by nonbank lenders and the impact of our strategic initiatives.

本季度，該公司完成了 1,300 多筆經紀交易，交易總額達 85 億美元。由我們的 IPA 部門提供服務的購物中心、工業、自助倉儲和機構公寓的改善最為明顯。由於貸款限制和持續的買賣價差，單一租戶零售和小型公寓銷售仍然受到阻礙。本季融資收入成長 19.3%，交易量成長 15%，總融資量成長 12%。我們在 1 季內透過 150 個獨立貸方完成了 300 多筆融資交易並為客戶提供了資金保障。這些數字突顯了非銀行貸款機構融資能力的提高以及我們策略性舉措的影響。

Middle market and larger transactions not only enhanced our brokerage revenue, but also boosted our financing revenue. In addition, our Loan Sales division continued to gain momentum, driven by increasing trade activity on both performing and distressed loans. Over the past 5 years, we've positioned our MMCC and IPA Capital Markets originators as leading finance intermediaries across all investor categories and deal sizes. The experienced talent, infrastructure expansion and lender relationships we've added contributed to the improvements in the quarter and will drive future growth in our financing business. Moreover, this strategy is creating value for our sales professionals as they increasingly team up with our originators to win business.

中端市場和大額交易不僅增加了我們的經紀收入，也增加了我們的融資收入。此外，在不良貸款和不良貸款貿易活動增加的推動下，我們的貸款銷售部門繼續保持成長勢頭。在過去 5 年裡，我們將 MMCC 和 IPA 資本市場發起人定位為所有投資者類別和交易規模的領先金融中介機構。我們增加的經驗豐富的人才、基礎設施擴張和貸方關係為本季的改善做出了貢獻，並將推動我們融資業務的未來成長。此外，這項策略正在為我們的銷售專業人員創造價值，因為他們越來越多地與我們的創辦人合作贏得業務。

We continue to add experienced professionals across the firm, which helps mitigate the challenges we still face in growing the newer agent cadre. The market volatility of the past several years has kept our new agent fallout rate elevated, spurring expanded channels for attracting and training new talent to reverse this trend. This includes a significantly larger internship program and the deployment of regional recruiters focused on increasing our candidate pool. We remain dedicated to a dual strategy of experienced talent acquisition and development as well as organic hiring and training as both are pivotal to the company's future. Looking forward, perhaps the biggest challenge we face is the volatility in long-term interest rates, which have the most impact on commercial real estate trading and finance volumes.

我們繼續在公司範圍內增加經驗豐富的專業人員，這有助於減輕我們在培養新代理幹部方面仍然面臨的挑戰。過去幾年的市場波動使我們的新代理商流失率不斷上升，從而刺激了擴大吸引和培訓新人才的管道以扭轉這一趨勢。這包括大幅擴大實習計劃以及部署區域招聘人員以增加我們的候選人庫。我們仍然致力於實施經驗豐富的人才獲取和發展以及有機招聘和培訓的雙重策略，因為兩者對公司的未來都至關重要。展望未來，我們面臨的最大挑戰也許是長期利率的波動，對商業房地產交易和融資量影響最大。

Since the Fed's rate reductions began, the 10-year treasury yield has moved 70 basis points to 4.3% currently. Interest rate volatility over the last 2.5 years severely impacted our sales force's productivity due to the frequent repricing of listings and transactions under contract. We anticipate a productivity improvement when rates settle as the Fed's easing cycle unfolds. At the macro level, inflation has decelerated toward the Fed's target, while job growth and retail sales have moderated, but are still positive. This supports a soft landing scenario for the U.S. economy, pointing to a solidly positive picture for commercial real estate demand across the board. The election outcome is generally viewed as positive for business, taxes and the economy, although much remains to be seen related to actual policy implementation over time.

自聯準會開始降息以來，10年期公債殖利率已上漲70個基點，目前為4.3%。由於合約項下的掛牌和交易頻繁地重新定價，過去 2.5 年的利率波動嚴重影響了我們銷售人員的生產力。我們預計，隨著聯準會寬鬆週期的展開，利率穩定下來，生產力將會提高。在宏觀層面，通膨已放緩至聯準會目標，就業成長和零售銷售放緩，但仍呈正值。這支持了美國經濟的軟著陸情景，為商業房地產需求的全面發展指明了堅實的積極前景。人們普遍認為選舉結果對商業、稅收和經濟是正面的，儘管隨著時間的推移，與實際政策實施有關的事情仍有待觀察。

Regardless of the policy dynamics, commercial real estate is poised to attract more capital, maintain, if not improve, fundamentals and begin a new cycle driven by more realistic pricing and compelling yields. Real estate values have come a long way in recalibrating to higher interest rates, but the path to increase sales and financing availability will face speed bumps along the way. Our strategy to continually enhance our platform, help our existing sales force maximize productivity and further attract top talent positions us very well for solid growth and increased market share.

無論政策動態如何，商業房地產都將吸引更多資本，維持（如果不是改善的話）基本面，並開始一個由更現實的定價和令人信服的收益率驅動的新周期。房地產價值在適應更高利率方面已經取得了長足的進步，但增加銷售和融資可用性的道路將面臨減速。我們的策略是不斷增強我們的平台，幫助我們現有的銷售團隊最大限度地提高生產力，並進一步吸引頂尖人才，使我們能夠實現穩健成長和增加市場份額。

On the capital allocation front, we have the benefit of a strong balance sheet and maintained a dual approach of returning capital to shareholders while driving business growth at the same time. We continue to strategically deploy capital by investing in proprietary technology and client services such as our Auction division and Loan Sales division, both of which are taking off nicely while pursuing strategic acquisition targets. Our ongoing investments in business development, direct client engagement, industry event participation, branding and all the other activities we undertake every quarter to market the firm underscore our commitment to staying on offense and positioning the company for dominance in the market recovery.

在資本配置方面，我們受益於強勁的資產負債表，並保持向股東返還資本的雙重方式，同時推動業務成長。我們繼續透過投資專有技術和客戶服務（例如拍賣部門和貸款銷售部門）來策略性地部署資本，這兩個部門在追求策略性收購目標的同時都取得了良好的發展。我們對業務開發、直接客戶參與、行業活動參與、品牌推廣以及我們每個季度為公司營銷而進行的所有其他活動的持續投資，強調了我們致力於保持進攻性並使公司在市場復甦中佔據主導地位的承諾。

With that, I will turn the call over to Steve for additional insights into the quarter. Steve?

這樣，我將把電話轉給史蒂夫，以獲取有關本季度的更多見解。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Hessam. As mentioned, total revenue for the quarter was $169 million, up 4% compared to $162 million in the prior year quarter. For the 9-month period, revenue was $456 million compared to $480 million last year. Revenue from real estate brokerage commissions for the third quarter was $142 million, accounting for 84% of total revenue compared to $140 million last year, an increase of 2% year-over-year. Brokerage revenue was generated from total sales volume of $8.5 billion across 1,331 transactions, up 15% and down 2%, respectively, compared to last year. Year-to-date, revenue from real estate brokerage commission was $387 million, accounting for 85% of total revenue compared to $415 million last year, which was 87% of total revenue.

謝謝你，赫薩姆。如前所述，本季總營收為 1.69 億美元，比去年同期的 1.62 億美元成長 4%。這 9 個月期間的收入為 4.56 億美元，而去年為 4.8 億美元。第三季房地產經紀佣金收入為1.42億美元，佔總營收的84%，去年同期為1.4億美元，較去年同期成長2%。經紀收入來自 1,331 筆交易的總銷售額 85 億美元，與去年相比分別成長 15% 和下降 2%。年初至今，房地產經紀佣金收入為3.87億美元，佔總收入的85%，而去年為4.15億美元，佔總收入的87%。

Year-to-date, total sales volume was $21.4 billion across 3,705 transactions, down 3% and 9%, respectively. The year-to-date results reflect a more challenging first half of the year, followed by an improved Q3. The average transaction size during the third quarter was approximately $6.4 million, up 17% from $5.5 million a year ago, resulting from a sizable increase in middle market and larger transactions.

年初至今，總銷售額為 214 億美元，涉及 3,705 筆交易，分別下降 3% 和 9%。年初至今的業績反映了上半年更具挑戰性，隨後第三季有所改善。第三季的平均交易規模約為 640 萬美元，比去年同期的 550 萬美元增長 17%，這是由於中間市場和較大交易的大幅增長。

Within brokerage, Private Client contributed 62% of brokerage revenue or $87.5 million for the quarter. This compares to 65% and $91.5 million last year. Transactions in this segment decreased 9% in dollar volume and 6% in transaction count compared to last year. Year-to-date, Private Client contributed 63% of brokerage revenue or $245 million versus 67% and $278 million last year. Our middle market and larger transaction segments together accounted for 35% of brokerage revenue or $49 million during the third quarter. This is an increase from 31% and $43 million last year. These segments saw a combined increase of 36% in dollar volume and 23% in the number of transactions. Year-to-date, the middle market and larger transaction segments represented 33% of brokerage revenue or $126 million compared to 29% and $122 million last year.

在經紀業務中，私人客戶貢獻了本季經紀業務收入的 62%，即 8,750 萬美元。相較之下，去年這一比例為 65%，為 9,150 萬美元。與去年相比，該細分市場的交易金額下降了 9%，交易數量下降了 6%。今年迄今為止，私人客戶貢獻了經紀收入的 63%，即 2.45 億美元，而去年這一比例為 67%，即 2.78 億美元。第三季度，我們的中間市場和較大的交易領域合計佔經紀收入的 35%，即 4,900 萬美元。這比去年的 4,300 萬美元增加了 31%。這些細分市場的美元交易量和交易數量總計增加了 36% 和 23%。今年迄今為止，中間市場和較大的交易領域佔經紀收入的 33%，即 1.26 億美元，而去年這一比例為 29%，即 1.22 億美元。

Revenue in our Financing segment, including MMCC, grew 19% to $21 million during the third quarter compared to $17 million last year. We closed 318 financing transactions totaling $2.1 billion in volume compared to 276 transactions for $1.9 billion in volume in the prior year. Financing revenue for the 9 months was $53 million compared to $51 million last year. We closed 824 transactions year-to-date, totaling $5.6 billion in volume compared to 839 transactions for $5.3 billion in volume last year. Fees from refinancing accounted for 42% of loan originations in the quarter compared to 44% last year, while year-to-date refinancing fees were 41% of loan originations compared to 51% last year. Other revenue comprised primarily of leasing, consulting and advisory fees was $6 million during the third quarter, up 20% compared to $5 million last year. Year-to-date, other revenue was $15.8 million this year, up 17% compared to $13.5 million last year.

我們的融資部門（包括 MMCC）第三季的營收成長了 19%，達到 2,100 萬美元，而去年為 1,700 萬美元。我們完成了 318 筆融資交易，總金額為 21 億美元，而去年則完成了 276 筆交易，總金額為 19 億美元。前 9 個月的融資收入為 5,300 萬美元，而去年為 5,100 萬美元。今年迄今為止，我們完成了 824 筆交易，總交易額為 56 億美元，而去年則完成了 839 筆交易，總交易額為 53 億美元。再融資費用佔本季貸款發放的 42%，而去年為 44%，而年初至今的再融資費用佔貸款發放的 41%，而去年為 51%。第三季主要由租賃、諮詢和諮詢費組成的其他收入為 600 萬美元，比去年的 500 萬美元增加了 20%。年初至今，其他收入為 1,580 萬美元，比去年的 1,350 萬美元成長 17%。

Turning to expenses. Total operating expenses for the third quarter were $180 million, 1% higher than last year, while on a year-to-date basis, total operating expenses of $496 million were 5% lower compared to the same period a year ago. The year-to-date reduction in expenses was principally driven by lower variable expenses directly attributable to revenue and cost containment efforts. Breaking down the expense components further, cost of services was $105 million or 62.2% of total revenue compared to 64.6% in the third quarter last year, an improvement of 240 basis points. Year-to-date, cost of services was $280 million or 61.3% of total revenue, an improvement of 150 basis points over the same period last year. Decreases as a percentage of revenue for both the quarter and year-to-date periods are primarily due to a slower ramp-up of revenue in the first half of the year, resulting in our senior professionals hitting higher thresholds later in the year.

轉向開支。第三季總營運費用為 1.8 億美元，比去年同期成長 1%，而年初至今，總營運費用為 4.96 億美元，比去年同期下降 5%。年初至今費用的減少主要是因為收入和成本控制工作直接導致變動費用降低所致。進一步細分費用構成，服務成本為 1.05 億美元，佔總收入的 62.2%，與去年第三季的 64.6% 相比，提高了 240 個基點。年初至今，服務成本為 2.8 億美元，佔總營收的 61.3%，比去年同期提高了 150 個基點。本季和年初至今佔營收百分比的下降主要是由於上半年營收成長放緩，導致我們的高階專業人員在今年稍後達到更高的門檻。

SG&A during the quarter was $71 million, up 2% year-over-year. On a year-to-date basis, SG&A was $205 million, 3% lower compared to last year. The year-to-date changes are primarily due to a reduction in marketing support tied to prior year revenue and continued balancing of key investments with prudent expense reductions. For the third quarter, we reported a net loss of $5.4 million or $0.14 per share compared to a net loss of $9.2 million or $0.24 per share last year. For the 9-month period, the net loss was $20.9 million or $0.54 per share compared to a net loss of $23.8 million or $0.61 per share in the same period of the prior year.

本季的銷售及管理費用 (SG&A) 為 7,100 萬美元，較去年同期成長 2%。年初至今，SG&A 為 2.05 億美元，比去年下降 3%。年初至今的變化主要是由於與上一年收入相關的行銷支援減少，以及關鍵投資與審慎開支削減的持續平衡。第三季度，我們報告淨虧損 540 萬美元，即每股 0.14 美元，而去年的淨虧損為 920 萬美元，即每股 0.24 美元。在這 9 個月期間，淨虧損為 2,090 萬美元，即每股 0.54 美元，而上年同期淨虧損為 2,380 萬美元，即每股 0.61 美元。

For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA improved to breakeven compared to a loss of $6.6 million in the prior year. For the 9-month period, adjusted EBITDA was negative $8.7 million compared to negative $15.1 million in the prior year. The year-over-year improvement is an encouraging sign that we've moved past the market's low point. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 15%. Our current expectation of the rate for the full year is 13% to 16%.

本季調整後 EBITDA 改善至損益平衡，而前一年則虧損 660 萬美元。在這 9 個月期間，調整後 EBITDA 為負 870 萬美元，而前一年為負 1,510 萬美元。同比改善是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，表明我們已經度過了市場的低點。本季的有效稅率為 15%。我們目前對全年成長率的預期為13%至16%。

Turning to the balance sheet. We continue to be well capitalized with no debt and $349 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, which is an increase of $13 million over the prior quarter. Subsequent to quarter end, we returned $10 million in capital to shareholders through a dividend paid in October. Since initiating our dividend and share repurchase programs over 2 years ago, we have returned more than $170 million in capital to shareholders. During the quarter, we evaluated a number of acquisition investment opportunities and remain active in pursuing external growth channels.

轉向資產負債表。我們的資本充足，沒有債務，現金、現金等價物和有價證券為 3.49 億美元，比上一季增加了 1,300 萬美元。季度末後，我們透過 10 月支付的股息向股東返還了 1,000 萬美元的資本。自兩年多前啟動股利和股票回購計畫以來，我們已向股東返還超過 1.7 億美元的資本。本季度，我們評估了許多收購投資機會，並繼續積極尋求外部成長管道。

As Hessam mentioned, we are dedicated to maintaining a balanced long-term capital allocation strategy. This encompasses investing in technology, attracting and retaining top sales talent, prudently pursuing strategic acquisitions and returning capital to shareholders. Looking ahead, we clearly have seen the start of a market recovery. However, interest rate volatility and restrictive lending continue to pose challenges. Given these dynamics, our outlook remains cautiously optimistic, including sequential revenue growth in Q4. Cost of services as a percentage of revenue for the fourth quarter should follow the usual pattern of increasing sequentially. SG&A for the quarter should be relatively consistent with Q3 in absolute dollar terms and a favorable improvement over Q4 of last year. And as I mentioned, the full year tax rate is currently expected to be in the 13% to 16% range.

正如赫薩姆所提到的，我們致力於維持平衡的長期資本配置策略。這包括投資技術、吸引和留住頂尖銷售人才、審慎地進行策略性收購以及向股東返還資本。展望未來，我們顯然已經看到市場復甦的開始。然而，利率波動和限制性貸款繼續構成挑戰。鑑於這些動態，我們的前景仍然謹慎樂觀，包括第四季度的營收季增。第四季服務成本佔收入的百分比應遵循通常的連續成長模式。以絕對美元計算，本季的銷售及管理費用 (SG&A) 應與第三季相對一致，並且比去年第四季有良好的改善。正如我所提到的，目前全年稅率預計在 13% 至 16% 範圍內。

With that, operator, we can now open the call for Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，我們現在可以開始問答電話了。

(Operator Instructions) Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Blaine Heck，富國銀行。

Hessam, can you talk a little bit more about the financing environment for commercial real estate deals, especially for the Private Client markets? I guess, have you seen any increase in availability of debt capital at reasonable rates from regional banks or credit unions that would kind of suggest that transaction volume could pick up in that segment?

Hessam，您能否多談談商業房地產交易的融資環境，特別是私人客戶市場的融資環境？我想，您是否看到區域銀行或信用合作社以合理的利率提供的債務資本增加，這表明該領域的交易量可能會增加？

And then, maybe also just provide some color on how that compares with what you're seeing in the middle market and larger segments.

然後，也許還可以提供一些顏色，說明與您在中型市場和更大細分市場中看到的情況相比如何。

Sure. Blaine, the answer to your question is, yes, gradually, we're seeing a little bit of easing by banks and credit unions coming back into the market. And the hindrance is more about the fact that the normal cycle of sales and refis or financings that would traditionally free up more lending capacity just hasn't been operating as normal. Therefore, they just have less capacity to lend in addition to being more conservative, obviously, having adjusted underwriting criteria and really moving forward with a lot more caution than in a normal market environment. Those are the things that really make obtaining financing for smaller transactions more challenging.

當然。布萊恩，你的問題的答案是，是的，我們逐漸看到銀行和信用合作社的一些寬鬆政策重新回到市場。阻礙更多的是這樣一個事實：傳統上可以釋放更多貸款能力的銷售和再融資或融資的正常週期並未正常運作。因此，他們除了更保守之外，放款能力也較弱，顯然，他們調整了承保標準，並且比正常市場環境下更加謹慎行事。這些確實使小型交易的融資變得更具挑戰性。

It's not to say that there isn't financing. There certainly is. I mean we did 150 finance transactions with -- or transactions with 150 separate lenders just in the quarter. It just takes a lot longer to shop for a loan. It takes a lot longer to get the lender, buyer and seller aligned on all the different metrics and valuations and loan to values and moving forward.

這並不是說沒有融資。當然有。我的意思是，僅在本季度，我們就與 150 家獨立貸方進行了 150 筆金融交易。只是購買貸款需要更長的時間。讓貸方、買家和賣家在所有不同的指標和估值以及貸款價值方面保持一致並向前推進需要更長的時間。

More important than the timing of that is the question of what's going to be the catalyst for more transactions to occur. For us, we're seeing much better alignment on the bid-ask spread and more motivation by sellers that really haven't been desperate to bring properties to market starting to shift. And that's probably even more important than the restrictive finance environment. But as far as what has kept the Private Client market to perform better, say, in the third quarter or even in the second quarter, it's the combination of restrictive lending and the bid-ask spread.

比時機更重要的是什麼將成為更多交易發生的催化劑。對我們來說，我們看到買賣價差有了更好的一致性，而且賣家的積極性也有所提高，而實際上並不急於將房產推向市場的賣家開始發生轉變。這可能比限制性的金融環境更重要。但就私人客戶市場在第三季甚至第二季表現較好的原因而言，是限制性貸款和買賣價差的結合。

On the middle market and larger transactions, the catalyst is really the fact that the type of investors that are executing larger transactions are less reliant on bank and credit union financing. They are more driven by the replacement cost question and the pricing adjustment from peak in 2022, particularly institutional investors who've been out of the market for 18 to 24 months and are now aggressively looking to put capital back in the market, and are seeing enough of a price adjustment to care less about the financing component because they have the purchase power of all cash or very low leverage types of transactions.

在中間市場和大型交易中，催化劑實際上是執行大型交易的投資者類型對銀行和信用合作社融資的依賴程度較低。他們更多地受到重置成本問題和 2022 年高峰後的定價調整的推動，尤其是已經退出市場 18 至 24 個月、現在正在積極尋求將資金重新投入市場的機構投資者，並且看到足夠的價格調整而不太關心融資部分，因為他們擁有所有現金或槓桿率非常低的交易類型的購買力。

A number of our institutional clients that I personally talked with over the past quarter will literally tell me that they are looking to buy the right assets at the right prices, not too worried about financing because they plan to put financing on projects later if they have to. And they see this window of opportunity to act on the price adjustments as more important than figuring out the finance component.

上個季度我親自交談過的許多機構客戶都會告訴我，他們希望以合適的價格購買合適的資產，不太擔心融資問題，因為如果有的話，他們計劃稍後為項目融資。他們認為，對價格調整採取行動的機會之窗比弄清楚財務部分更重要。

I hope that answers your question.

我希望這能回答你的問題。

Yes, absolutely. That's great color. Related to that, and I know this is a very difficult question to answer, but you noted that trading and financing volumes will likely take time to reach long-term averages. I guess, can you just expand on that a little bit? I guess, given kind of what you're seeing in the market today, do you think we can get back to a long-term average run rate sometime in 2025? Or do you see the choppiness in the market as likely to push that normalization into '26 or beyond that?

是的，絕對是。那顏色真棒。與此相關，我知道這是一個非常難以回答的問題，但您指出，交易和融資量可能需要一段時間才能達到長期平均水平。我想，你能稍微擴充一下嗎？我想，考慮到您今天在市場上看到的情況，您認為我們可以在 2025 年的某個時候恢復到長期平均運行率嗎？或者您認為市場的波動可能會將這種正常化推至 26 年或更久？

Sure. By our analysis and estimations, the market in 2024 is somewhere between 35% to 40% below the 5- to 10-year previous averages, which is probably the closest proxy for "a normal transaction marketplace." And so the market has room to run to catch up to its long-term average for sure. And I do believe very confidently that we will get there. The market will get there. There's no reason that it wouldn't. In fact, if anything, commercial real estate today is in much better shape than it's been in previous cycles because as an industry at a macro level, we haven't really overbuilt the product type or I should say, the investment class. And we have all the different intrinsic economic benefits of a solid U.S. economy to indicate that demand for various property types is going to be very strong going into the next couple of years.

當然。根據我們的分析和估計，2024 年的市場將比 5 到 10 年之前的平均水平低 35% 到 40%，這可能是最接近「正常交易市場」的代表。因此，市場肯定有追趕其長期平均水準的空間。我確實非常有信心我們會實現這一目標。市場將會到達那裡。沒有理由不這樣做。事實上，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是今天的商業房地產比之前的周期要好得多，因為作為一個宏觀層面的行業，我們並沒有真正過度建設產品類型，或者我應該說，投資類別。我們擁有穩健的美國經濟所帶來的所有不同的內在經濟效益，這表明未來幾年對各種房地產類型的需求將非常強勁。

But I do believe it will be very different than the 2021 recovery from the pandemic year. And that's the most recent recovery reference that most people ask me about, mainly because the conditions coming out of the pandemic and going into '21 and '22 were very different than they are today. We were really benefiting from record stimulus and almost free money in a way that made the issue of underwriting, really getting the bid-ask spread equation removed as an obstacle, functioning in a very different way than those things are currently. We're already looking at a higher interest rate environment even after a few more reductions by the Fed just because of the fact that the economy is in much better shape. And we're not in the kind of environment we were that was stimulus-driven as much as it was in 2021.

但我確實相信，這將與 2021 年大流行年的復甦有很大不同。這是大多數人問我的最新復甦參考，主要是因為疫情結束後以及進入 21 和 22 年的情況與今天有很大不同。我們確實受益於創紀錄的刺激措施和幾乎免費的資金，這在某種程度上解決了承銷問題，真正消除了買賣價差方程式作為障礙，其運作方式與目前的方式截然不同。即使在聯準會再次降息之後，我們已經在考慮更高的利率環境，因為經濟狀況要好得多。我們所處的環境不再像 2021 年那樣受刺激驅動。

So there is the reason why I believe it will be more of a gradual recovery, yet a solid recovery may not all happen in 2025. It's unlikely that we catch up to long-term averages in 1 year. But we've been surprised before. There is a lot of pent-up demand with a lot of our clients who were not comfortable transacting over the last 2 years that have become more comfortable. There's more distress at the local level on a situational basis. The kind of institutional distress of massive discounted portfolio sales is not happening, because lenders are not in a position to discount huge portfolios, mark-to-market and take those losses. Therefore, they've been much more willing to work with lenders to work out maturing loans that were underwater and buy them more time. And so, we could see some burst. At the end of the day, I think there's going to be some choppiness to the recovery curve, but we will definitely regain those averages at some point.

因此，我相信這將是一個漸進式的復甦，但堅實的復甦可能不會在 2025 年全部發生。我們不太可能在一年內趕上長期平均水平。但我們之前就感到驚訝過。我們的許多客戶在過去兩年中對交易感到不舒服，但現在變得更加舒服，有大量被壓抑的需求。根據具體情況，地方層級的困境更多。大規模折扣投資組合銷售所帶來的機構困境並沒有發生，因為貸款人無法對龐大的投資組合進行折扣、以市價計價並承擔這些損失。因此，他們更願意與貸方合作，解決水下到期的貸款問題，為他們贏得更多時間。因此，我們可以看到一些爆發。最終，我認為復甦曲線將會出現一些波動，但我們肯定會在某個時候恢復這些平均值。

Great. That's helpful. And I guess just following up on that with respect to that run rate level, just to clarify, as you mentioned, you guys had very strong years in '21 and '22 with EBITDA in the $150 million to $200 million range, but it sounds like the average kind of normalized level that you're expecting from this recovery might be a little lower given the different circumstances. Is that fair?

偉大的。這很有幫助。我想只是跟進一下運行率水平，只是為了澄清，正如您所提到的，你們在 21 和 22 年經歷了非常強勁的年份，EBITDA 在 1.5 億至 2 億美元範圍內，但這聽起來考慮到不同的情況，您對這次復甦的預期平均標準化水平可能會稍低一些。這樣公平嗎？

From a pure market factor perspective? Yes. From the perspective of our strategy with having many more experienced professionals added to our company with a number of boutique firms that we've acquired and brought into our culture very successfully from the standpoint of our ongoing evolution of training and development for our sales force. There are many things above and beyond the market factor that we are aggressively pursuing both internally and through external growth that really fall into the control -- the controllable aspect of our business plan? That shouldn't be underestimated either.

從純粹的市場因素角度來看？是的。從我們策略的角度來看，從我們不斷發展的銷售隊伍培訓和發展的角度來看，我們已經收購了許多精品公司，並非常成功地將更多經驗豐富的專業人士加入到我們的公司，並將它們帶入我們的文化。有很多超出市場因素的事情，我們正在內部和透過外部成長積極追求，這些事情確實屬於我們的控制範圍——我們的業務計劃的可控方面？這也不應該被低估。

Absolutely. Really helpful. And then just on the election and potential impacts, are there any potential changes to laws or regulations specific to commercial real estate that you're keeping a close eye on that you think could impact the sector positively or negatively?

絕對地。真的很有幫助。然後，就選舉和潛在影響而言，您正在密切關注的特定於商業房地產的法律或法規是否有任何潛在的變化，您認為可能會對該行業產生積極或消極的影響？

Well, through every cycle, we hear about questions around the 1031 Exchange Tax, the deferred tax provision. There hasn't been too many cycles where that hasn't come up or carried interest. There is a lot of questions around the expirations of the provisions that were part of the 2017 Tax Reduction and Jobs Act. And all those questions led to a lot of uncertainty over the past few months as I travel around the country. And obviously, the outcome of the election at least reduces some of that angst that it is more leaning toward the extension of those provisions, if not maybe improving some of them if some of the campaign promises are to be delivered on.

嗯，在每個週期中，我們都會聽到有關 1031 外匯稅（遞延稅項）的問題。沒有太多的周期沒有出現或引起人們的興趣。2017 年減稅和就業法案中的條款是否到期存在許多疑問。在過去的幾個月裡，當我在全國各地旅行時，所有這些問題給我帶來了很多不確定性。顯然，選舉的結果至少減少了一些人們的焦慮，因為它更傾向於延長這些條款，如果不能兌現一些競選承諾的話，可能會改善其中一些條款。

But it is so hard to predict, Blaine, as you well know, what will actually come to fruition versus what is intended or what is advertised. I mean that's very, very hard to predict. Overall, though, the sentiment that I'm certainly picking up and we're picking up throughout my travels prior to the election was that this outcome would be more favorable toward real estate and economic growth. And it happened as many of our forecasters had predicted it would.

但是，布萊恩，正如你所知，很難預測實際上會實現什麼與預期或廣告上的結果。我的意思是，這非常非常難以預測。不過，總的來說，我肯定會感覺到，而且我們在選舉前的整個旅行中也感覺到這一結果將更有利於房地產和經濟成長。正如我們許多預測者所預測的那樣，它發生了。

Great. That's helpful.

偉大的。這很有幫助。

Let me also add that in California, Blaine, as you well know, and we've spoken about before, Prop. 33, which was a proposal for taking the current rent control laws to an extreme did not pass by a wide margin. It's the third time in several years that a group had intended to really disrupt the multifamily market in California. That's just one example. The regional example of some of the other local legislative concerns around rent control that have been popping up and it did not pass. The industry did a lot to educate the market around the fact that rent control actually exacerbates the problem of supply shortage and affordability. It doesn't help it, because it chokes off investment and new supply. So that's another positive factor on that front that's noteworthy.

我還要補充一點，在加州布萊恩，正如您所知道的，我們之前已經談過，第 33 號提案是一項將現行租金管制法發揮到極致的提案，但並未獲得廣泛通過。這是幾年來第三次有組織打算真正擾亂加州的多戶住宅市場。這只是一個例子。其他一些地方立法對租金管制的擔憂不斷出現，但並未獲得通過。該行業做了很多工作來教育市場，讓他們明白租金管制實際上加劇了供應短缺和負擔能力的問題。這無濟於事，因為它阻礙了投資和新的供應。這是這方面另一個值得注意的正面因素。

Great color. And lastly, just shifting gears, can you give an update on the opportunity set that you guys see in front of you with respect to M&A? Maybe just some color on the types of businesses you're looking at? Whether it be on the financing or transaction side? Any specific areas of the business that you think would be beneficial to add or expand and thoughts on whether we should continue to expect smaller one-off deals or if there might be any larger transactions you'd consider?

顏色很棒。最後，只是換個話題，您能否介紹一下你們面前的併購機會集的最新情況？也許只是您正在尋找的企業類型的一些顏色？無論是融資方面還是交易方面？您認為增加或擴展業務的任何特定領域是有益的，並考慮我們是否應該繼續期待較小的一次性交易，或者您是否會考慮進行任何較大的交易？

Sure. In this particular quarter, most of our discussions were around teams and boutiques that would be a nice fit into our brokerage operation in markets where we have certain product type that is low on coverage or has no coverage. But in general, as we've discussed before, we have a strong appetite for complementary businesses such as appraisal valuation consultation. We've had some conversations with some entities of scale around that.

當然。在這個特定的季度，我們的大部分討論都是圍繞著團隊和精品店展開的，這些團隊和精品店非常適合我們在某些​​產品類型覆蓋率低或沒有覆蓋率的市場中的經紀業務。但總的來說，正如我們之前討論的，我們對評估評估諮詢等互補業務有很強的興趣。我們已經與一些規模較大的實體圍繞這個問題進行了一些對話。

We've had a couple of explorations around investment management. And both of those verticals appear to be very complementary to different parts of our business. And it's the synergies with the existing business. It's the expanded service capabilities for the same client base, particularly the Private Client, obviously, given that it makes up the vast majority of our business that drives what we look for and the conversations that we have started. There are some other interesting synergistic ideas that we're working on. But in the quarter, the particular period was more around individual agents, teams and boutique firms on the brokerage side.

我們圍繞著投資管理進行了一些探索。這兩個垂直領域似乎與我們業務的不同部分非常互補。這是與現有業務的綜效。顯然，這是針對同一客戶群（特別是私人客戶）的擴展服務能力，因為它構成了我們業務的絕大多數，推動了我們正在尋找的內容和我們已經開始的對話。我們正在研究一些其他有趣的協同想法。但在本季度，特定時期更圍繞著經紀方面的個人代理人、團隊和精品公司。

Steve, anything to add to that?

史蒂夫，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I would just reiterate the fact that we continue to be very selective and opportunistic in this area. We've expressed over the last several quarters, I guess, somewhat -- some level of frustration with the degree of bid-ask spread. Those numbers have come in a little bit. We'll still remain disciplined in how we look at and evaluate these firms, but there seems to be some movement there. And again, I would reiterate that we have been active on the team front, the boutique firm front, filling out by -- in particular geographies and particular property types.

是的。我只想重申一個事實，即我們在這一領域仍然非常有選擇性和機會主義。我想，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們對買賣價差的程度表達了某種程度的沮喪。這些數字有所增加。我們仍將在如何看待和評估這些公司方面保持自律，但似乎出現了一些變化。我再次重申，我們在團隊方面、精品公司方面一直很活躍，特別是在特定地區和特定財產類型方面。

Blaine, just kind of a reminder of conversations we've had around the market or the available pool being very fragmented because if we're driven by synergies for the Private Client, driven by synergies by our existing brokerage sales force, that fundamentally points to a pretty fragmented market. Therefore, the companies, the service providers that we could bring in, tuck-in are also not huge in size. So our reality has been multiple smaller targets in that part of the business.

布萊恩，這只是提醒我們圍繞市場或可用資金池進行的對話非常分散，因為如果我們受到私人客戶協同效應的推動，受到我們現有經紀銷售人員協同效應的推動，那麼從根本上來說，這表明一個相當分散的市場。因此，我們可以引進的公司、服務提供者的規模也不是很大。因此，我們的現實是該業務部分有多個較小的目標。

On other complementary potential ideas around larger deals or our IPA strategy, obviously, investment management fits that part of the business a little tighter just because of property size and price point correlation to IPA's larger deal profile and the kinds of clients that IPA targets.

顯然，在圍繞大型交易或我們的 IPA 策略的其他互補潛在想法上，投資管理更適合這部分業務，因為房地產規模和價格點與 IPA 較大交易概況以及 IPA 目標客戶類型的相關性。

There is no further questions in the queue. I would like to hand the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給管理階層進行閉幕致詞。

Thank you, operator, and many thanks to everybody who joined this call. We look forward to keeping in touch with you, seeing you on the road and our next earnings call.

謝謝接線員，也非常感謝所有加入本次通話的人。我們期待與您保持聯繫，期待在路上見到您，並期待我們的下一次財報電話會議。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。