MillerKnoll Inc (MLKN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good evening, and welcome to MillerKnoll quarterly earnings conference call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

晚上好，歡迎參加 MillerKnoll 季度財報電話會議。謹此提醒，此通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Wendy Watson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Wendy Watson。請繼續。

Good evening, and welcome to our second quarter fiscal 2025 conference call. On with me are Andi Owen, Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Stutz, Chief Financial Officer. Joining them for the Q&A session are John Michael, President of Americas contract; and Debbie Propst, Vice President of Global Retail.

晚上好，歡迎參加我們的 2025 財年第二季電話會議。和我一起的是執行長安迪歐文 (Andi Owen)；和財務長傑夫·斯圖茨(Jeff Stutz)。與他們一起參加問答環節的還有美洲合約總裁約翰·邁克爾 (John Michael)；和全球零售副總裁 Debbie Propst。

We issued our earnings press release for the quarter ended November 30, 2024, after market closed today, and it is available on our Investor Relations website at millerknoll.com.com. A replay of the call will be available on our website within 24 hours.

今天收盤後，我們發布了截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日的季度收益新聞稿，可在我們的投資者關係網站 millerknoll.com.com 上取得。我們的網站將在 24 小時內提供通話重播。

Before I turn the call over to Andi, please remember our safe harbor regarding forward-looking information. During the call, management may discuss information that is forward-looking and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results to be different than those expressed or implied. Please evaluate the forward-looking information in the context of these factors, which are detailed in today's press release.

在我將電話轉給安迪之前，請記住我們有關前瞻性資訊的安全港。在電話會議期間，管理層可能會討論前瞻性訊息，並涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素，這可能導致實際結果與明示或暗示的結果不同。請在這些因素的背景下評估前瞻性信息，這些因素在今天的新聞稿中進行了詳細介紹。

The forward-looking statements are made as of today's date, and except as may be required by law, we assume no obligation to update or supplement these statements. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial metrics, and our press release includes the relevant non-GAAP reconciliations.

這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新或補充這些陳述的義務。我們也會參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，我們的新聞稿包括相關的非 GAAP 調整表。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andi.

這樣，我就把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, Wendy. Good evening, everyone. Thank you so much for joining us tonight. As you may hear from my voice, I'm recovering from a little bit of a respiratory infection, so please bear with me.

謝謝，溫迪。大家晚上好。非常感謝您今晚加入我們。你可能從我的聲音中聽出，我正在從一點呼吸道感染中恢復過來，所以請耐心聽我說。

I'm very pleased to report MillerKnoll delivered strong performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025. We continue to be optimistic for the year ahead. Based on momentum we're seeing in several of our businesses, along with leading indicators, which vary by segment, strengthening our overall demand picture.

我很高興地報告 MillerKnoll 在 2025 財年第二季取得了強勁的業績。我們對未來一年繼續保持樂觀。根據我們在多項業務中看到的勢頭，以及因細分市場而異的領先指標，加強了我們的整體需求狀況。

While orders are trending nicely ahead of last year, they've recovered at a slower pace than we expected at this point in the year. This is reflected in our guidance for the balance of the year that Jeff will discuss later in the call.

儘管訂單趨勢好於去年，但其復甦速度比我們今年此時的預期要慢。這反映在我們對今年剩餘時間的指導中，傑夫將在稍後的電話會議中討論。

Moving on to some highlights and trends by segment. America's contract continues to be a key growth driver from MillerKnoll, with sales and orders up year-over-year in the second quarter, our third consecutive period of order growth. And looking forward, leading indicators in this segment such as project funnel additions, customer mockup requests and pricing activity are all up year-over-year.

接下來按細分市場介紹一些亮點和趨勢。美國合約仍然是 MillerKnoll 的主要成長動力，第二季的銷售額和訂單年增，這是我們連續第三個季度的訂單成長。展望未來，該細分市場的領先指標，例如專案漏斗添加、客戶模型請求和定價活動均逐年上升。

Within the International & Specialty segment, we continue to see strong order growth in the Middle East and parts of Asia. We're thrilled to see the excitement that is building for our brands internationally.

在國際和專業領域，我們繼續看到中東和亞洲部分地區的訂單強勁成長。我們很高興看到我們的品牌在國際上的發展令人興奮。

One of our key competitive advantages is the power of our collective of brands alongside our global scale and reach. As I mentioned last quarter, in September, we opened our MillerKnoll flagship in London, and to date, we have more than doubled client appointments compared to the same period last year. We have some great initiatives that are building momentum in this segment as well. For example, with the opening of a new fulfillment center in Belgium, we now have the ability to offer our full complement of textiles in Europe, making it more efficient to utilize them across our portfolio of European brands.

我們的主要競爭優勢之一是我們的品牌集體的力量以及我們的全球規模和影響力。正如我在上個季度提到的，9 月份，我們在倫敦開設了 MillerKnoll 旗艦店，迄今為止，我們的客戶預約數量比去年同期增加了一倍多。我們也有一些偉大的舉措正在為這一領域注入動力。例如，隨著在比利時開設新的履行中心，我們現在有能力在歐洲提供全套紡織品，從而更有效地在我們的歐洲品牌組合中利用它們。

Turning to our retail segment. We saw mid-single-digit year-over-year increase in orders during a very important 12-day Black Friday holiday cyber promotional period. This period runs from the Friday before Thanksgiving through GivingTuesday and fell in both our second and third fiscal quarters this year. Additionally, we're pleased with several positive trends in the business, including strength of the complementary concierge design services we offer our customers, new product launches performing above expectations and a very positive response to our promotions with all product categories performing better than prior year and the holiday cyber promotional period. This gives us confidence to continue to invest in new stores, and our product assortment.

轉向我們的零售部門。在非常重要的 12 天黑色星期五假期網路促銷期間，我們看到訂單比去年同期出現中個位數成長。這段期間從感恩節前的星期五到捐贈星期二，在我們今年的第二和第三財政季度都有所下降。此外，我們對業務的幾個積極趨勢感到滿意，包括我們為客戶提供的互補禮賓設計服務的實力、超出預期的新產品發布以及對我們促銷活動的非常積極的反應，所有產品類別的表現都比去年好以及假期網路促銷期。這讓我們有信心繼續投資新店和我們的產品種類。

In early 2025, we plan to open designs in Reach studios in Palm Springs, California and Las Vegas, Nevada as well as the Herman Miller store in Fairfax, Virginia. We're also very excited to introduce an expanded product assortment in spring 2020, with new product launches above 100% compared to spring 2024.

2025 年初，我們計劃在加州棕櫚泉和內華達州拉斯維加斯的 Reach 工作室以及弗吉尼亞州費爾法克斯的 Herman Miller 商店開設設計。我們也非常高興能夠在 2020 年春季推出擴大的產品種類，與 2024 年春季相比，新產品推出率超過 100%。

Moving to supply chain and a topic of tariffs. We're paying very close attention to the tariff proposal. We've managed through similar tariff policy changes in the past and are looking to a number of options to mitigate if needed. These could include identifying alternative sources of supply, options for advanced purchasing of imported goods and materials and possible future price adjustments in response to tariff-driven cost increases.

轉向供應鍊和關稅話題。我們非常密切地關注關稅提案。我們過去曾經歷過類似的關稅政策變化，並正在尋求多種選擇來緩解需要時的影響。這些可能包括確定替代供應來源、提前採購進口商品和材料的選擇以及未來可能的價格調整，以應對關稅驅動的成本上漲。

We know from experience that our global manufacturing footprint and supply chain agility is an advantage. And we will determine which combination of these responses is appropriate as more details on tariff actions become available.

我們從經驗中知道，我們的全球製造足跡和供應鏈敏捷性是一項優勢。隨著關稅行動的更多細節公佈，我們將確定這些應對措施的哪種組合是合適的。

We're also closely watching other proposals from any administration. They could have a positive impact on our business and that of our customers.

我們也正在密切關注任何政府的其他提案。它們可能會對我們的業務和客戶的業務產生積極影響。

The extension of the 2017 tax cuts, and in particular, the reinstatement of bonus depreciation could result in higher free cash flow for us and for many of our customers. We made impressive strides in sustainability this quarter. We announced the elimination of added PFAS from our North American product portfolio by May of 2025 and globally by May of 2027. Our products currently meet or exceed global PFAS regulations but we aim to go beyond minimum safety standards.

2017 年減稅政策的延長，特別是紅利折舊的恢復，可能會為我們和我們的許多客戶帶來更高的自由現金流。本季我們在永續發展方面取得了令人印象深刻的進步。我們宣佈在 2025 年 5 月在北美產品組合中消除添加的 PFAS，並於 2027 年 5 月在全球產品組合中消除添加的 PFAS。我們的產品目前符合或超過全球 PFAS 法規，但我們的目標是超越最低安全標準。

We also continue to roll out more sustainable product options. Herman Miller launched a refreshed version of the popular Mirra 2 chai, made with more recycled content and a lower carbon footprint. As a design innovation leader, we support our customers through both research and insights team. With more and more industries recognizing the need to return to and personally connect within workspaces, this team is constantly evaluating these to create spaces that support relationship-based work.

我們也持續推出更永續的產品選擇。Herman Miller 推出了廣受歡迎的 Mirra 2 柴的更新版本，採用更多回收材料製成，碳足跡更低。作為設計創新的領導者，我們透過研究和洞察團隊為客戶提供支援。隨著越來越多的行業認識到需要返回工作空間並在工作空間內進行個人聯繫，團隊不斷評估這些空間，以創建支持基於關係的工作的空間。

Through our Design with Impact program, we have the tools to help customers do that.

透過我們的影響力設計計劃，我們擁有幫助客戶實現這一目標的工具。

To close, while macroeconomic improvement is progressing more slowly than we had expected at the start of our fiscal year, we're encouraged by many of the trends we're seeing across our businesses, and the building momentum we continue to expect in the second half of the year. Our diverse business channels and global collective of brands continue to be a strong competitive advantage, and we have cash flow and balance sheet strength that will allow us to capitalize on opportunities and drive continued momentum.

最後，雖然宏觀經濟改善的進展速度比我們在本財年開始時的預期要慢，但我們在我們的業務中看到的許多趨勢以及我們在第二個財年繼續預期的增長勢頭令我們感到鼓舞半年。我們多元化的業務管道和全球品牌集合仍然是強大的競爭優勢，我們擁有現金流和資產負債表實力，這將使我們能夠抓住機會並推動持續發展勢頭。

And finally, December always brings a chance to reflect on the year and where we're headed next. I want to thank our associates across MillerKnoll for all that we've accomplished in calendar year 2024. This past year has been about coming together to inspire our customers and clients, collaborating with our colleagues and partners and supporting one another. I appreciate every moment we've worked together, and I'm proud of the milestones we've achieved.

最後，十二月總是帶來反思這一年以及我們下一步的發展方向的機會。我要感謝 MillerKnoll 的同事在 2024 年所取得的一切成就。過去的一年是我們齊心協力激勵我們的客戶、與我們的同事和合作夥伴合作並相互支持的一年。我感謝我們一起工作的每一刻，我為我們所取得的里程碑感到自豪。

I'll now turn it over to Jeff to discuss our results in more detail and share our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2025.

我現在將把它交給傑夫，更詳細地討論我們的結果，並分享我們對 2025 財年剩餘時間的展望。

Terrific. Thanks, Andi, and good evening, everyone. As Andi just mentioned, we're pleased with our second quarter results. And despite what has remained a challenging environment from a demand perspective, we continue to be optimistic that the table is set for improved activity in each of our business segments moving forward.

了不起。謝謝安迪，大家晚上好。正如安迪剛才所提到的，我們對第二季的業績感到滿意。儘管從需求角度來看，環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們每個業務部門的活動都將得到改善。

Consistent with our expectations, consolidated net sales for the second quarter were $970 million, representing a 2.2% increase year-over-year on a reported basis and a 2.4% organic increase. Second quarter consolidated orders of $922 million were down 2.3% as reported and 1.9% lower on an organic basis.

與我們的預期一致，第二季合併淨銷售額為 9.7 億美元，按報告計算年增 2.2%，有機成長 2.4%。據報告，第二季綜合訂單為 9.22 億美元，下降 2.3%，有機訂單下降 1.9%。

Now one important reminder as you digest our numbers is that order entry levels this quarter were impacted by that timing shift that Andi mentioned in the Thanksgiving and subsequent cyber promotional period within our retail business. Whereas last fiscal year, this entire two-week promotional period landed within the second quarter, this year, it is equally split between Q2 and Q3.

現在，當您消化我們的數據時，一個重要的提醒是，本季度的訂單輸入水平受到安迪在感恩節和隨後的零售業務網絡促銷期間提到的時間變化的影響。上一財年，整個為期兩週的促銷期都在第二季進行，而今年，則平均分配在第二季和第三季。

We are pleased to have maintained the gross margin expansion that we delivered in 2024 while strategically managing operating expenses and positioning ourselves for profitable growth. In the quarter, our consolidated gross margin was 38.8%, which was down just slightly to last year, mainly due to product and channel mix.

我們很高興能夠維持 2024 年實現的毛利率擴張，同時策略性地管理營運費用並為獲利成長做好準備。本季度，我們的綜合毛利率為 38.8%，較去年略有下降，主要是因為產品和通路組合所致。

Turning to second quarter cash flows and the balance sheet. We generated $55 million in cash flow from operations and we repurchased approximately 1 million shares for a total investment of $23 million in the second quarter. And through the first six months of the fiscal year, we've returned approximately $93 million to our shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. We finished the quarter with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio as defined in our lending agreement of 2.94 turns.

轉向第二季現金流和資產負債表。第二季度，我們從營運中產生了 5,500 萬美元的現金流，並回購了約 100 萬股股票，總投資額為 2,300 萬美元。在本財年的前六個月，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 9,300 萬美元。本季結束時，我們的貸款協議中定義的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.94 倍。

And with that, I'm going to move to our performance by segment. Within our Americas Contract segment, net sales for the quarter were $504 million, up 6.2% organically from the same quarter a year ago. While new orders of $457 million in the quarter were lower than we expected, they were up nicely, coming in 4.9% over last year on an organic basis, marking as Andi highlighted, our third consecutive quarter of order growth in the Americas segment.

接下來，我將按細分市場來討論我們的表現。在我們的美洲合約部門，本季淨銷售額為 5.04 億美元，比去年同期有機成長 6.2%。雖然本季 4.57 億美元的新訂單低於我們的預期，但成長良好，有機成長 4.9%，正如 Andi 所強調的那樣，這標誌著我們在美洲市場的訂單連續第三個季度成長。

Order growth trends improved as the quarter progressed, and overall funnel, funnel additions, customer mockup requests and pricing activity all continue to remain well ahead of last year, strengthening our confidence in a supportive demand environment entering the second half of the fiscal year.

隨著本季的進展，訂單成長趨勢有所改善，整體漏斗、漏斗增加、客戶模式請求和定價活動均繼續遠遠領先於去年，這增強了我們對進入本財年下半年的支持性需求環境的信心。

Second quarter operating margin in the Americas segment was 9.4% compared to 7.4% in the prior year. And on an adjusted basis, operating margin was a strong 10.2% in the quarter, up 80 basis points compared to last year, primarily due to leverage on fixed overhead costs from higher net sales and benefit from incremental price increases.

美洲業務第二季營業利益率為 9.4%，而去年同期為 7.4%。經調整後，本季營業利潤率高達 10.2%，比去年增長 80 個基點，主要是由於淨銷售額增加帶來的固定管理成本以及增量價格上漲的好處。

In the International Contract and Specialty segment, net sales in the second quarter were $246 million, up 2.1% on a reported basis and up just over 1% on an organic basis year-over-year. Orders during the quarter were $219 million, a year-over-year decrease of 6.5% on a reported basis and down just over 7% organically.

在國際合約和特種業務領域，第二季淨銷售額為 2.46 億美元，按報告計算成長 2.1%，以有機基礎年增略高於 1%。本季訂單量為 2.19 億美元，按報告數據年減 6.5%，自然下降略高於 7%。

Order growth in the APMEA region continues to be strong, but was offset by lower orders in other regions and softness in textiles and with luxury clients at HOLLY HUNT during the quarter.

APMEA 地區的訂單成長持續強勁，但被其他地區的訂單減少以及本季紡織品和奢侈品客戶 HOLLY HUNT 的疲軟所抵消。

The operating margin in the International and Specialty segment continues to be strong as we are maintaining the benefits of past actions to reduce expenses. In the second quarter, operating margin was 9.7% on a reported basis compared to 9.9% last year. And adjusted operating margin was 10.5%, which is down 80 basis points year-over-year primarily from deleverage on lower sales in some of our specialty businesses.

國際和特種業務部門的營業利潤率持續保持強勁，因為我們維持了過去削減開支行動的好處。以報告計算，第二季營業利潤率為 9.7%，而去年為 9.9%。調整後營業利潤率為 10.5%，年減 80 個基點，主要是因為我們一些專業業務銷售下降而進行的去槓桿化。

Turning to our retail segment. We reported net sales in the second quarter of $220 million. And relative to the same quarter last year, this is a reported decrease of 5.3% and down 4% on an organic basis. New orders in the quarter were $246 million, down 9.6% to last year on a reported basis and down 8.4% organically compared to the last year.

轉向我們的零售部門。我們報告第二季淨銷售額為 2.2 億美元。據報道，與去年同期相比，下降了 5.3%，有機下降了 4%。本季新訂單為 2.46 億美元，報告數據較去年下降 9.6%，有機較去年下降 8.4%。

As I mentioned, it's important to note that this organic sales and order decrease was expected given the shift in the timing of this year's holiday promotional period versus a year ago. And after adjusting for this shift, both sales and orders in the second quarter would be up low single digits to last year. And thus far in December, the improvement in year-over-year order rates has only increased. Operating margin in the retail segment was 4% in the second quarter compared to 6.3% a year ago. And on an adjusted basis, operating margin was 4.2%, which is 290 basis points lower than the prior year, driven by reduced leverage on seasonal marketing spend for the holiday promotional period.

正如我所提到的，值得注意的是，考慮到今年假期促銷期的時間安排與一年前相比，這種有機銷售和訂單的減少是預料之中的。在對這一轉變進行調整後，第二季的銷售額和訂單都將比去年低個位數成長。12 月到目前為止，訂單率年增率只增不減。第二季零售業務的營業利潤率為 4%，而去年同期為 6.3%。調整後的營業利潤率為 4.2%，比上年下降 290 個基點，這是由於假日促銷期間季節性行銷支出槓桿減少所致。

Now I'll turn to our near-term guidance and outlook. As Andi mentioned in her opening remarks, most of the leading indicators in our Americas Contract business are pointing to improved market conditions. Additionally, important external indicators, including the Architectural Billings Index, CEO and dealer sentiment measures and luxury home sales are showing improvement. And as I just mentioned, we're very encouraged by the December month-to-date trends in our Global Retail segment.

現在我將談談我們的近期指導和展望。正如安迪在開場白中提到的那樣，我們美洲合約業務的大多數領先指標都表明市場狀況有所改善。此外，重要的外部指標，包括建築比林斯指數、首席執行官和經銷商情緒指標以及豪宅銷售都顯示出改善。正如我剛才提到的，我們對全球零售部門 12 月至今的趨勢感到非常鼓舞。

We believe both the internal and external indicators support our expectation of improving demand in most of our markets in the second half of the fiscal year. While we expect our fiscal third quarter to be impacted by typical seasonal softness in our Americas and international contract businesses as the calendar year comes to a close and by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday, our full year guide reflects our confidence that our business is poised for growth.

我們認為，內部和外部指標都支持我們對本財年下半年大多數市場需求改善的期望。雖然我們預計第三財季將受到美洲和國際合約業務典型季節性疲軟的影響，因為隨著日曆年的結束以及中國農曆新年假期的到來，我們的全年指南反映了我們對我們業務的信心正準備增長。

And with that being said, given the fact that order rates during the second quarter developed slower than we initially expected, we have narrowed our full year adjusted earnings per share range to between $2.11 and $2.17, lowering the midpoint to accommodate our expectation of a softer third quarter. This updated guidance continues to reflect our expectation of full year sales and EPS growth over fiscal 2024.

話雖如此，鑑於第二季度訂單率的發展速度慢於我們最初的預期，我們已將全年調整後每股收益範圍縮小至2.11 美元至2.17 美元之間，降低了中點以適應我們對經濟疲軟的預期。此更新後的指引繼續反映了我們對 2024 財年全年銷售額和每股收益成長的預期。

For the third quarter specifically, we expect net sales to range between $903 million and $943 million. Adjusted diluted earnings are expected to range between $0.41 and $0.47 per share. Our Q3 guidance takes the third quarter's typical seasonal slowdown into consideration along with the shift in the holiday promotional period for our retail business, which we estimate shifted approximately $12 million in net sales and $27 million in orders from our fiscal second quarter into the third quarter. For all other details related to our guidance, please refer to our press release.

具體來說，我們預計第三季的淨銷售額將在 9.03 億美元至 9.43 億美元之間。調整後攤薄收益預計在每股 0.41 美元至 0.47 美元之間。我們的第三季指引考慮了第三季典型的季節性放緩以及我們零售業務假日促銷期的轉變，我們估計第二財季到第三季的淨銷售額和訂單量分別約為1,200 萬美元和2,700 萬美元。有關我們指南的所有其他詳細信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

Now with that overview of our financial performance and the outlook for the remainder of the year, we'll turn the call over to the operator, and we'll take your questions.

現在，我們概述了我們的財務表現和今年剩餘時間的前景，我們將把電話轉給接線員，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Greg Burns, Sidoti.

（操作員說明）Greg Burns，Sidoti。

I appreciate that the tariff question or issue is kind of still up in the air. No one knows exactly how that's going to shape up. But when you look at your business, can you maybe just give us a little bit more color on where you might have the most exposure, whether it's specific product lines or with maybe manufacturing that's coming out of Mexico? Or just any additional color you might give us on how we should think about the potential impact on the business and the business' profitability going forward?

我知道關稅問題仍懸而未決。沒有人確切知道這將如何發展。但是，當您審視您的業務時，您能否向我們介紹您可能曝光最多的領域，無論是特定的產品線還是來自墨西哥的製造業？或者您可以向我們提供任何其他信息，告訴我們應該如何考慮對業務和業務未來盈利能力的潛在影響？

Sure, Greg. This is Jeff. I'll keep my comments fairly high level, but I will highlight the fact that -- and as you well know and remember, we've been through this one round previously in 2018. So as Andi highlighted in her comments, we do have a playbook of actions to take. And maybe before I get into the exposures, I'll just reiterate those.

當然，格雷格。這是傑夫。我將保持我的評論相當高的水平，但我會強調這樣一個事實——正如你們所知並記住的那樣，我們在 2018 年之前已經經歷過這一輪。因此，正如安迪在她的評論中所強調的那樣，我們確實有一個可以採取的行動手冊。也許在我開始討論之前，我會重申這些。

We've got opportunities, and we've taken action to identify alternative sources of supply. Now we can't do that everywhere, but we're certainly doing it where we can. We're buying in advance component parts that we think are very low risk in advance of any tariff impacts. And we also have potential pricing actions that we will consider, depending on the level of the kind of details that come out here after the first of the year.

我們有機會，並且已採取行動尋找替代供應來源。現在我們不能在所有地方都這樣做，但我們肯定會在力所能及的地方這樣做。我們正在提前購買我們認為在受到關稅影響之前風險非常低的零件。我們還將考慮潛在的定價行動，具體取決於今年第一天之後發布的詳細資訊的水平。

Additionally, we've got options around duty drawback and applying for exclusions, which we had some success in the last round as well as transfer pricing strategies that we think can help limit the impact. So that's the -- if you will, the playbook, and we'll pick the combination of those things as necessary.

此外，我們還有關於關稅退稅和申請排除的選擇，我們在上一輪中取得了一些成功，以及我們認為可以幫助限制影響的轉讓定價策略。如果你願意的話，這就是劇本，我們將根據需要選擇這些內容的組合。

But in terms of exposures, not a lot of exposure to Mexico on our business. But the two big regions of the world would be China and Canada, and the Canada exposure really came to us through the Knoll acquisition. As you know, we've got manufacturing in Toronto for some of our wood case goods. So those are the two areas that we will be watching most closely as we move forward.

但就風險敞口而言，我們的業務在墨西哥的風險敞口並不多。但世界上的兩大地區是中國和加拿大，而加拿大的業務確實是透過收購 Knoll 來到我們這裡的。如您所知，我們在多倫多生產一些木箱商品。因此，這些是我們在前進過程中將最密切關注的兩個領域。

And I would say just to add on to that, Greg, based on our last round of experience with tariffs, we spent a lot of time and effort making sure that we rationalize our manufacturing and our supply chain so that we mostly build for region and region now. So we are a lot less exposed to places like China than we have been in the past. But to Jeff's point, we have a playbook ready depending on what those tariffs end up being.

我想說的是，格雷格，根據我們上一輪關稅方面的經驗，我們花了很多時間和精力來確保我們的製造和供應鏈合理化，以便我們主要為地區和地區生產。因此，與過去相比，我們對中國等國家的接觸要少得多。但就傑夫而言，我們已經準備好了一本劇本，這取決於這些關稅的最終結果。

Okay. Great. And then in terms of maybe the slower order development you saw on the Americas or maybe more broadly, maybe it was elsewhere also. But can you just talk about that a little bit more. I think on the last call, you mentioned that kind of book to ship times were extending, maybe there's longer sales cycles.

好的。偉大的。然後，就您在美洲或更廣泛的範圍內看到的訂單發展速度可能較慢而言，也許其他地方也是如此。但你能再多談談這一點嗎？我想在上次電話中，您提到這類書的出貨時間正在延長，也許銷售週期更長。

Is that part of maybe what you're still seeing this quarter?

這可能是您本季仍然看到的一部分嗎？

I don't think the book to ship has changed too much, Greg. But I think this last quarter was unique for us in that we really saw in all of our businesses. And I think a little bit throughout the country, a little bit of a slowdown preelection. And so I think when you look at how the quarter started off, it really was related to that. Post election, we started to see things pick up.

格雷格，我認為要發行的書沒有太大變化。但我認為上個季度對我們來說是獨一無二的，因為我們在所有業務中都看到了這一點。我認為全國範圍內，選舉前都有一點放緩。所以我認為，當你看看本季的開始情況時，你會發現它確實與此相關。選舉後，我們開始看到事情好轉。

So I don't think it's something to be concerned about or repeatable.

所以我不認為這是值得擔心或重複的事情。

And then John, I don't know if you want to add to just order to ship but nothing has really changed there in our last call, I don't think.

然後，約翰，我不知道您是否想添加僅發貨訂單，但我認為在我們上次通話中沒有任何真正改變。

No. I think it's pretty similar. Customers are still planning for planning in advance perhaps more than they did pre-COVID for some longer lead times with everything that goes into a construction project, but it's been pretty steady and consistent throughout the quarter.

不。我覺得很相似。客戶仍在提前計劃，也許比新冠疫情爆發前的情況還要多，因為建設項目的所有準備工作都需要更長的交付時間，但整個季度的情況相當穩定和一致。

Okay. And then internationally, the orders, I guess, were down a little bit more than we were expecting. Can you just talk about the demand dynamics there? It sounds like it's different across different markets. But also, I just was wondering in terms of maybe some of the integration in terms of Knoll and the dealer network and some of the growth investments you've been making internationally.

好的。然後在國際上，我想訂單的下降幅度比我們預期的要多一些。您能談談那裡的需求動態嗎？聽起來不同市場的情況有所不同。而且，我只是想知道諾爾和經銷商網路方面的一些整合以及你們在國際上進行的一些成長投資。

Where are you at with those? And how are those impacting the business right now?

你在哪裡？這些目前對業務有何影響？

Yes. I think we continue to increase our dealer distribution internationally across the board, Greg. We continue to add a full-line MillerKnoll dealers. We've had great success with that so far. I think when you look at the international business in general compared to the Americas Contract business, it tends to be a much more project-based business.

是的。我認為我們將繼續全面增加我們的國際經銷商分銷，格雷格。我們繼續增加全線 MillerKnoll 經銷商。到目前為止，我們在這方面取得了巨大成功。我認為，當你把國際業務與美洲合約業務相比時，你會發現它往往是一個更基於專案的業務。

And therefore, to use a technical term, it's a little lumpier than what we see in Americas Contract.

因此，用技術術語來說，它比我們在美洲合約中看到的要複雜一些。

We're still seeing strong demand. We're still seeing a very active funnel. I think there's a certain amount of uncertainty with everything that's going on in Europe right now, macroeconomically and politically and we ride those waves out, but I think the nature of the business is that it tends to be a little lumpier.

我們仍然看到強勁的需求。我們仍然看到一個非常活躍的漏斗。我認為目前歐洲發生的一切，無論是宏觀經濟還是政治，都存在著一定程度的不確定性，我們會安然度過這些浪潮，但我認為業務的本質是它往往會有點不穩定。

Jeff, would you add anything?

傑夫，你能補充點什麼嗎？

No, I think that's spot on.

不，我認為這是正確的。

Reuben Garner, The Benchmark Company.

魯本·加納，基準公司。

Thank you. Good evening, everybody. Let's see. So our dealer survey the last few months has been pretty positive, especially the two readings post the election. I was wondering if you could kind of comment on any feedback you've gotten from your customers?

謝謝。大家晚上好。讓我們來看看。因此，我們過去幾個月對經銷商的調查非常積極，尤其是選舉後的兩個讀數。我想知道您是否可以對從客戶那裡得到的任何反饋發表評論？

I know you said it was softer before the election and maybe started to pick up since then, but any kind of feedback on what things are looking like as we get closer to 2025.

我知道你說過大選前經濟狀況較為疲軟，自那時起可能開始回升，但隨著 2025 年的臨近，有關情況的任何反饋都會出現。

Sure, Reuben, this is John. I would say dealer sentiment as it shows in your survey is definitely continues to improve. There's a fair amount of market activity really across the board. And if you think about the leading indicators that we track to try and anticipate what demand will be going forward, they are all pointing in the right direction. Things like additions to our 12-month funnel, we're up over 64% this quarter over the same time last year.

當然，魯本，這是約翰。我想說，正如您的調查所顯示的那樣，經銷商情緒肯定會持續改善。確實有相當多的市場活動。如果您考慮我們追蹤的領先指標，以嘗試預測未來的需求，它們都指向正確的方向。例如我們 12 個月通路的新增內容，本季我們比去年同期成長了 64% 以上。

Mockup activity, those things that happen right before customers make decisions are up almost 30%. So all in all, all the indicators we're tracking are healthy, and that's consistent with what we're hearing from the dealer network as well.

模型活動，即在客戶做出決定之前發生的事情增加了近 30%。總而言之，我們追蹤的所有指標都是健康的，這也與我們從經銷商網路聽到的情況一致。

Okay. Great. And then Jeff, some clarifications on the guidance. I think that if I'm doing the math right, the third quarter kind of implies a little bit more of the same that we saw in the first half in terms of year-over-year, a little bit of margin -- or flattish to maybe a little bit of margin pressure at the operating incline.

好的。偉大的。然後傑夫對指南進行了一些澄清。我認為，如果我計算正確的話，第三季的情況與我們在上半年看到的同比情況有所相同，有一點利潤——或者說持平。

The fourth quarter, depending on what your revenue number assumes, it looks like it implies a pretty big surge in margins. Am I doing that right? Is there something that's going to drive that? Or is that another kind of expectation that this acceleration is going to come in the form of a big move in the top line in the fourth quarter?

第四季度，根據您的收入數據假設，看起來這意味著利潤率將出現相當大的飆升。我這樣做對嗎？有什麼東西可以驅動它嗎？或者這是另一種預期，即這種加速將以第四季度營收大幅波動的形式出現？

Yes, Reuben, I think it's -- our expectation would be more the latter than the former. We would expect -- with -- as you saw even this quarter and in our Q3 guide, you can see that we are sensitive to shifts in the top line in terms of leverage. And so that's the big reason we're seeing a slight tick down in margins in Q3 because we've got lower revenue. And to some degree, you've got some channel mix that's moving around and some of our higher gross margin businesses.

是的，魯本，我認為我們的期望更多是後者而不是前者。我們預計，正如您在本季和我們的第三季指南中看到的那樣，您可以看到我們對槓桿方面的收入變化很敏感。因此，這就是我們在第三季度看到利潤率略有下降的重要原因，因為我們的收入較低。在某種程度上，你已經有了一些正在變化的通路組合以及我們的一些毛利率較高的業務。

But our expectation, based on what you heard from John, the fairly positive indicators that we're seeing internally relative to our retail business would tell us that we should expect an acceleration in revenue. So I don't think it's a massive surge in margin that we're expecting. It's more -- would be more typical improved leverage on higher sales, but it's more of a top line story in our view.

但根據您從約翰那裡聽到的情況，我們的預期是，我們內部看到的與零售業務相關的相當積極的指標將告訴我們，我們應該預期收入會加速成長。因此，我認為利潤率不會出現我們預期的大幅成長。這更可能是更典型的提高槓桿率以提高銷售額，但在我們看來，這更像是一個重要的故事。

And can you tell us what that top line assumption is so that if we think it's trending differently than that, we can adjust?

您能否告訴我們頂線假設是什麼，以便如果我們認為趨勢與此不同，我們可以進行調整？

Well, Reuben, we haven't provided a full year revenue guide. So I'm not going to quantify it for you. But what I can tell you is that the gross margin expectation would be modestly improved from the second quarter. And we're going to do everything we can -- and just real quick, Reuben, by the way, we're going to do, of course, everything we can to manage those operating expenses prudently so that we don't expect -- beyond variability on higher sales, we don't expect a significant uptick in OpEx.

好吧，魯本，我們還沒有提供全年收入指南。所以我不會為你量化它。但我可以告訴你的是，毛利率預期將較第二季略有改善。我們將盡一切努力——魯本，順便說一句，我們將盡一切努力謹慎管理這些營運費用，這樣我們就不會期望—— - 除了銷售額增加的變化之外，我們預計營運支出不會顯著上升。

Okay. And just to clarify, you said the fourth quarter gross margin would be modestly better than what -- I think you said second quarter, but I don't think that's what you meant.

好的。澄清一下，您說第四季度的毛利率會比第二季度的毛利率稍微好一些，但我認為這不是您的意思。

That is what I meant. Yes. Yes. I think you'd expect it to be modestly better because we would expect better revenue.

這就是我的意思。是的。是的。我認為你會期望它會稍微好一些，因為我們期望有更好的收入。

Got it. Okay. All right. I'll jump back in queue. Thank you, guys.

知道了。好的。好的。我會插回隊列。謝謝你們，夥計們。

Brian Gordon, Water Tower Research.

布萊恩‧戈登，水塔研究中心。

In your discussions with customers and partners. Have there been any kind of meaningful directional trends in terms of what you're hearing in terms of like work from home or hybrid policies? And how are you thinking that could potentially affect the business over the next couple of quarters?

在與客戶和合作夥伴的討論中。就您所聽到的在家工作或混合政策等方面是否存在任何有意義的方向性趨勢？您認為這可能會對未來幾季的業務產生怎樣的影響？

Actually, John, why don't you start?

事實上，約翰，你為什麼不開始呢？

Sure. This is John. I'd be happy to take that. I think what's been consistent for the last few quarters is conversations we're having with executives at companies, they're looking for ways, right, to get their people -- attract their people back to the office. And they're seeking ways to connect in person in the ways that technology doesn't facilitate nearly as well, whether that's informal connection, learning and mentoring, problem-solving, right, all the things that are just a lot harder to do virtually than they are in person.

當然。這是約翰。我很樂意接受。我認為過去幾季我們與公司高層的對話一直是一致的，他們正在尋找方法，正確的，讓他們的員工——吸引他們的員工回到辦公室。他們正在尋求以科技無法提供的方式進行面對面的聯繫，無論是非正式的聯繫、學習和指導、解決問題，對的，所有這些在虛擬世界中更難做到的事情比他們本人更重要。

And in that regard, they're beginning to engage a larger section of their employees to help with that planning so that there's some ownership in terms of how the space develops and people's desire to want to participate and use it. And obviously, I think common in our industry is everybody wants the ability to adapt and flex over time. So we all know that the work environment is going to change over time and people want to make sure they've got space that allows them to do that.

在這方面，他們開始讓更多的員工參與規劃，以便在空間的發展以及人們參與和使用它的願望方面擁有一定的所有權。顯然，我認為我們行業的共同點是每個人都希望能夠隨著時間的推移進行調整和靈活調整。所以我們都知道，工作環境會隨著時間的推移而變化，人們希望確保他們有足夠的空間來做到這一點。

So I would say that in general, the conversations with customers are robust, they're very targeted and focused in terms of how they engage their associates and get them back in the office, particularly to focus on those things that are not as effective from a virtual perspective.

因此，我想說，總的來說，與客戶的對話是強有力的，他們非常有針對性，並且專注於如何與員工互動並讓他們回到辦公室，特別是關注那些從虛擬視角。

I think the conversation in has really shifted to getting people back in the office, not so much if, but when and how quickly. And I think another encouraging sign for us is to see how much our large projects have increased over the last several quarters, which typically means that people are looking to actually really revitalize their environment versus just a small area here and there. So we're encouraged by both of those things.

我認為，討論的焦點已經真正轉向讓人們回到辦公室，而不是是否，而是何時以及多快。我認為對我們來說另一個令人鼓舞的跡像是看到我們的大型項目在過去幾個季度中增加了多少，這通常意味著人們正在尋求真正真正振興他們的環境，而不是只是在這裡和那裡的一個小區域。所以我們對這兩件事感到鼓舞。

That definitely makes sense. And I was actually going to follow up with that question. Last quarter, you guys had noted that those larger orders, the greater than $5 million category was up quite strongly. I was wondering if you could kind of give us a little bit of color on how that segment of the business has been performing over the last quarter.

這絕對是有道理的。我實際上打算跟進這個問題。上個季度，你們已經注意到那些較大的訂單，超過 500 萬美元的類別成長相當強勁。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下該業務部門在上個季度的表現。

Yes, Brian, Jeff here. Same we were really encouraged. That was the highest category of growth for us. Again, this quarter was projects above $5 million. So that trend has continued.

是的，布萊恩，傑夫在這裡。同樣，我們真的很受鼓舞。這對我們來說是最高的成長類別。同樣，本季的項目超過 500 萬美元。所以這種趨勢一直持續著。

Great. Excellent. Thank you very much

偉大的。出色的。非常感謝

Alex Fuhrman, Craig Hallum Capital Group.

亞歷克斯·福爾曼，克雷格·哈勒姆資本集團。

It was nice to see that orders for retail were up during the really important Thanksgiving weekend and beyond period. I'm curious how we should think about that given that the retail business has been down year-over-year for a little while now. Is this potentially the beginning of turning a corner and starting to get retail back to growth? Or was this just a matter of a well-executed promotional strategy around Thanksgiving?

很高興看到零售訂單在非常重要的感恩節週末及之後增加。我很好奇我們應該如何看待這個問題，因為零售業務已經逐年下滑一段時間了。這是否可能是扭轉局面並開始讓零售業恢復成長的開始？或者這只是感恩節前後促銷策略執行得當的問題？

Yes. Alex, I think it's both. But Debbie's here. So I'd like to have the answer with some details.

是的。亞歷克斯，我認為兩者都是。但黛比在這裡。所以我想得到一些細節的答案。

Alex, thanks for the question. So I think it's your latter point. I think we well executed our promotional period. However, is that combined with many of the initiatives we have been working towards driving momentum as they deliver. So just a few examples of those are newness continues to grow and is performing better than ever.

亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。所以我認為這是你的後一點。我認為我們很好地執行了促銷期。然而，這與我們一直在努力推動勢頭的許多舉措相結合。因此，僅舉幾個例子，新穎性不斷增長，並且表現比以往任何時候都更好。

Our marketing capabilities have been honed over the last few years with new tools like our customer data platform and then the add of data attribution.

在過去的幾年裡，我們的行銷能力透過客戶數據平台等新工具以及數據歸因的添加得到了磨練。

So we're seeing significant results from that. I'll just give you one data in our return on ad spend for the quarter was up 5% last year, while cost to acquire customers was up 15% because of the election noise. So we're seeing really nice marketing economics. Our selling initiatives, such as our design services is our small business outreach, those things are driving average order values, 10% above last year. And then we have more initiatives across these three factors in the pipeline in addition to new stores in the last quarter.

所以我們看到了顯著的成果。我只提供一個數據，去年該季度的廣告支出回報率增加了 5%，而由於選舉的影響，獲取客戶的成本增加了 15%。所以我們看到了非常好的行銷經濟學。我們的銷售舉措，例如我們的設計服務和我們的小型企業外展，這些東西正在推動平均訂單價值，比去年高出 10%。除了上個季度的新店之外，我們也針對這三個因素制定了更多措施。

So we do expect continued momentum, and we expect to see growth beyond what's happening in the macroeconomic trends.

因此，我們確實預期經濟成長動能將持續，且成長將超越宏觀經濟趨勢。

Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you very much

好的，這真的很有幫助。非常感謝

As there are no further questions, we turn the floor back to President and CEO, Andi Owen for any closing remarks.

由於沒有其他問題，我們將請總裁兼執行長安迪歐文 (Andi Owen) 發表結束語。

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us on the call. I hope everyone has a lovely holiday season. We appreciate your continued support of MillerKnoll, and we look forward to updating you on our next quarterly conference call. Thank you.

再次感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我希望每個人都有一個愉快的假期。我們感謝您對 MillerKnoll 的持續支持，並期待在下一次季度電話會議上向您通報最新情況。謝謝。

Thank you for joining our call today. This now concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。