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Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Middleby Corporation first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event has been recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加 Middleby Corporation 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,此事件已被記錄。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Timothy FitzGerald, CEO. Please go ahead.
現在,我想將會議交給執行長蒂莫西·菲茨傑拉德先生。請繼續。
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for joining today's call. I'd like to begin by highlighting several key developments that underscore our commitment to driving shareholder value. As announced this morning, we've authorized an additional 7.5 million shares under our accelerated buyback program.
感謝您參加今天的電話會議。首先,我想強調幾個關鍵的發展,這些發展凸顯了我們致力於提高股東價值的承諾。正如今天上午宣布的那樣,我們已根據加速回購計劃授權額外回購 750 萬股。
We plan to deploy the vast majority of our free cash flow towards repurchasing shares, reflecting our confidence in the business. We believe our share -- our current share price does not fully capture the strength of our business.
我們計劃將絕大部分自由現金流用於回購股票,這反映了我們對業務的信心。我們相信我們的股票——我們目前的股價並不能完全反映我們業務的實力。
By prioritizing share repurchases, we aim to bridge that gap and deliver superior returns to shareholders while maintaining our strategic growth investments. This decision follows our February 2025 announcement to separate the food processing business into a stand-alone public company. A strategic move designed to unlock value and sharpen our focus.
透過優先回購股票,我們的目標是彌補這一差距,並在保持策略性成長投資的同時為股東帶來豐厚的回報。這項決定是在我們於 2025 年 2 月宣布將食品加工業務分拆為獨立上市公司之後做出的。旨在釋放價值並增強我們關注度的策略性舉措。
Middleby's consistent operational excellence, strong cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation provides a sound foundation for this enhanced buyback initiative. The total authorized shares for repurchase represent 21% of our outstanding equity.
Middleby 一貫的卓越營運、強勁的現金流量產生和嚴格的資本配置為此次加強回購計畫奠定了良好的基礎。授權回購股份總數占我們已發行股本的21%。
Now as it relates to the separation of our food processing group, we remain on track to complete the spin-off in early 2026. We are confident that creating a stand-alone food processing company will unlock significant shareholder value by enabling focused growth strategies and operational agility.
現在,就我們食品加工集團的分離而言,我們仍有望在 2026 年初完成分拆。我們相信,創建一家獨立的食品加工公司將透過實現有針對性的成長策略和營運彈性,釋放巨大的股東價值。
As outlined in our February call, the creation of two market-leading but separate businesses will ensure greater strategic and operational focus at each stand-alone entity, allowing each business to implement and optimize capital structure and capital allocation policy to best support growth opportunities and enabling Middleby food processing with its best-in-class growth and margin profile, to be valued in line with key food processing and industrial peers.
正如我們在二月份的電話會議上所概述的,創建兩個市場領先但獨立的業務將確保每個獨立實體更加註重戰略和運營,從而使每個業務能夠實施和優化資本結構和資本配置政策,以最好地支持增長機會,並使 Middleby 食品加工憑藉其最佳的增長和利潤率狀況,與主要食品加工和工業同行保持一致的估值。
We are excited about the prospects of food processing as this business is poised for long-term growth as we continue to execute on our strategy to be the supplier of choice with our full-line solutions enhancing the value delivered to our customers. And we see market expansion opportunities as we extend into attractive adjacent markets such as poultry, pet and snack foods, leveraging existing competencies.
我們對食品加工的前景感到興奮,因為隨著我們繼續執行我們的策略,即透過全系列解決方案成為首選供應商,並提升我們為客戶提供的價值,這項業務已準備好實現長期成長。隨著我們利用現有能力向家禽、寵物和零食等有吸引力的鄰近市場擴張,我們看到了市場擴張的機會。
In the coming quarters, we will provide more information on stand-alone financials, the leadership team and cost structures. We also plan to have a dedicated shareholder day in the fourth quarter to present further details on the strategic road map and growth outlook for the food processing business as an independent entity.
在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將提供更多有關獨立財務、領導團隊和成本結構的資訊。我們也計劃在第四季舉辦專門的股東日,進一步介紹食品加工業務作為獨立實體的策略路線圖和成長前景。
Now turning to tariffs. We are actively working to mitigate the cost impact of tariffs through targeted operational actions and pricing adjustments. Preliminary estimate of tariff-related costs is expected to increase our annual expenses by approximately $150 million to $200 million.
現在談談關稅。我們正在積極努力透過有針對性的營運行動和價格調整來減輕關稅的成本影響。初步估計,與關稅相關的成本預計將使我們的年度支出增加約 1.5 億至 2 億美元。
We are highly confident in our ability to navigate this new challenge. And while we see the negative impact in the next several quarters, we anticipate our ongoing actions will offset these cost impacts by end of the year.
我們對自己應對這項新挑戰的能力充滿信心。雖然我們在未來幾季將看到負面影響,但我們預計我們正在採取的行動將在年底前抵消這些成本影響。
While we address the cost side of the tariff equation, we are heavily focused on leveraging the strength of our manufacturing footprint. The strength we believe, provides us competitive advantage and unique opportunity to gain market share in a number of key product categories. We fully expect to not only manage the current market dynamics but emerge stronger.
在我們解決關稅方程式的成本方面時,我們非常注重利用我們的製造足跡的優勢。我們相信,這種實力為我們提供了競爭優勢和獨特的機會,使我們在許多關鍵產品類別中獲得市場份額。我們完全期望不僅能夠管理當前的市場動態,而且能夠變得更強大。
Before I turn it to Brian, I would also like to reemphasize the strategic investments we have outlined and invested in over the past several years to drive sustainable long-term growth. We have been consistent and intentional through market disruptions to execute against our stated key priorities to accelerate the development of market-leading innovations and to transform our go-to-market sales strategies.
在轉給布萊恩之前,我還想再次強調我們在過去幾年中為推動可持續的長期成長而製定和投資的策略投資。在市場動盪時期,我們始終堅持並有意執行我們既定的關鍵優先事項,以加速市場領先創新的發展並轉變我們的市場銷售策略。
We put these two strategic priorities in place several years ago, and we've been building an engine to drive sustainable long-term organic growth. Market conditions may be challenged, but we are better positioned than ever. Middleby is the established leader for the future trends of automation, ventless cooking, electrification, digital technologies and IoT connectivity in the kitchen.
幾年前,我們就制定了這兩個策略重點,並且一直在建立一個引擎來推動可持續的長期有機成長。市場條件可能面臨挑戰,但我們的地位比以往任何時候都要好。 Middleby 是廚房自動化、無排氣烹飪、電氣化、數位技術和物聯網連接未來趨勢的公認領導者。
This is the result of our execution of this strategy. And we have been strategic in our approach to identify and enter new complementary and attractive markets, including ice and beverage which has broadened our addressable market, providing an expanded runway for growth.
這是我們實施這項策略的成果。我們採取策略性的方法來確定和進入新的互補和有吸引力的市場,包括冰和飲料,這拓寬了我們的潛在市場,為成長提供了更廣闊的跑道。
We're excited about the many new game-changing innovations we have delivered, which James has discussed with enthusiasm on many of our past calls. We are proud that many of these products have been recognized with recent industry awards. We see these innovations gaining traction with customers and interest broadening in the marketplace.
我們對我們所推出的許多改變遊戲規則的創新感到非常興奮,詹姆斯在我們過去的許多電話會議中都曾熱情地討論過這些創新。我們很自豪其中的許多產品都獲得了最近的行業獎項。我們看到這些創新越來越受到客戶的青睞,市場興趣也越來越廣。
While the pipeline takes time to develop, the future is bright. Along with our acceleration of innovation, we have made major steps in transforming our go-to-market capabilities from investments in innovation centers, establishment of leading culinary teams, launch of unique digital sales tools and the creation of a dedicated sales team focused on marketing our industry-leading solutions we have made strategic and incremental investments to recreate how we do business. This is all providing our customers a better experience from Middleby.
雖然管道建設需要時間,但前景是光明的。隨著創新的加速,我們在轉變市場進入能力方面邁出了重要一步,包括投資創新中心、建立領先的烹飪團隊、推出獨特的數位銷售工具以及創建專注於行銷我們行業領先解決方案的專業銷售團隊,我們進行了戰略性和增量投資,以重塑我們的經營方式。這一切都是為了給我們的客戶更好的 Middleby 體驗。
We are at early stages of realizing benefits from these long-term growth strategies with recent wins and with more on the horizon. We're confident Middleby is better positioned than ever, and we are extending this leading position is the reason we're confident it'll be is a great investment.
我們正處於從這些長期成長策略中獲益的早期階段,最近取得了一些成果,未來還會取得更多成果。我們相信 Middleby 的地位比以往任何時候都要好,而且我們正在擴大這一領先地位,這就是我們相信這將是一項偉大投資的原因。
Bryan, I'll turn it over to you now for further comments on the quarter and outlook.
布萊恩,現在我將把話題交給你,請你對本季和前景發表進一步的評論。
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Tim. Looking back at Q1, we are pleased to have driven margins and generated strong cash flows. Operating cash flows of just over $141 million are our highest for a first quarter. Free cash flows were $107 million for the quarter and totaled $620 million for the trailing 12 months. Over the past two years, we have consistently demonstrated our ability to deliberately delever from 3 times to a modest 2 times today.
謝謝,蒂姆。回顧第一季度,我們很高興能夠提高利潤率並產生強勁的現金流。營業現金流略高於 1.41 億美元,是我們第一季的最高水準。本季自由現金流為 1.07 億美元,過去 12 個月的自由現金流總計 6.2 億美元。在過去兩年中,我們始終如一地展現出我們有能力有意識地將槓桿率從3倍降低到今天的2倍。
Our balance sheet remains strong and our cash flows are resilient. After year-to-date open market stock repurchases of nearly $50 million, we are now substantially accelerating our share repurchasing. From a reporting standpoint, I want to call out that we have made a small adjustment in our segment's composition as discussed in the footnotes in our press release.
我們的資產負債表依然強勁,現金流保持彈性。今年迄今為止,我們在公開市場回購了近 5,000 萬美元的股票,現在我們正在大幅加快股票回購步伐。從報告的角度來看,我想指出的是,正如新聞稿腳註中所述,我們對部門的組成進行了小幅調整。
We've moved one operating division from being part of the commercial segment into food processing. This change has an impact of around $10 million per quarter of revenue. We have restated all periods presented for this change.
我們已將一個營運部門從商業部門轉移到食品加工部門。這項變更對每季的營收影響約為 1,000 萬美元。我們已重申了這項變更的所有期間。
For Q1, we had growth in the residential segment, strong cost control actions and managing leverage led to higher operating income and net earnings. Regardless of market conditions, we have delivered robust cash flows and driven margin performance.
第一季度,我們的住宅業務實現了成長,強有力的成本控制措施和管理槓桿帶來了更高的營業收入和淨收益。無論市場狀況如何,我們都實現了強勁的現金流並提高了利潤率。
Our commercial foodservice business is seeing success, thanks to our investments in the ice and beverage platform, as well as chain wins with cooking and refrigeration brands. However, muted buying levels by our largest chain customers across a few of our brands are offsetting these wins.
由於我們在冰和飲料平台的投資以及烹飪和冷凍品牌的連鎖成功,我們的商業餐飲服務業務取得了成功。然而,我們幾個品牌的最大連鎖客戶購買水平較低,抵消了這些收益。
Nonetheless, margins expanded, benefiting from our continued cost control actions and favorable mix. Food processing, after a very strong fourth quarter and having seen some customer-driven delivery delays in Q1 did see a drop in revenues.
儘管如此,利潤率仍然擴大,得益於我們持續的成本控制措施和良好的產品組合。食品加工產業在第四季度表現非常強勁之後,由於第一季出現了一些客戶驅動的交貨延遲,其收入有所下降。
Given the lower volumes and some unfavorable mix, margins were challenged. However, we have near-term opportunities to engage directly with many customers at two very large trade shows in Q2, 1 focus on protein and one on bakery, which provide additional opportunities to improve the order trends. The residential segment growth was primarily attributable to outdoor products. Margins held in well given the product mix and production levels.
由於銷售量較低和一些不利的組合,利潤率受到挑戰。然而,我們近期有機會在第二季度的兩個大型貿易展會上與許多客戶直接接觸,一個重點關注蛋白質,一個重點關注烘焙食品,這為改善訂單趨勢提供了額外的機會。住宅部門的成長主要歸功於戶外產品。考慮到產品組合和生產水平,利潤率保持良好。
Looking forward, in commercial, we do acknowledge the challenging market conditions facing our largest chain customers and the resulting impacts on their buying decisions around our products. Nonetheless, we remain optimistic that over the year, we could see consistent sequential revenue increases as customers continue to adopt our leading technologies with rollouts and store build plants. Tariffs are impacting this business in a few ways.
展望未來,在商業方面,我們確實承認我們最大的連鎖客戶面臨嚴峻的市場條件,以及由此對他們圍繞我們產品的購買決策的影響。儘管如此,我們仍然樂觀地認為,隨著客戶繼續採用我們的領先技術(包括推廣和商店建設工廠),我們今年的收入將持續連續成長。關稅在某些方面影響這項業務。
Positively, we have a strong US manufacturing footprint compared to our competition and the geographies of our revenues and where we manufacture are generally aligned. Meanwhile, the level of Asian finished goods we import is negligible.
積極的一面是,與我們的競爭對手相比,我們在美國擁有強大的製造足跡,而且我們的收入所在地和製造地基本上一致。同時,我們進口的亞洲製成品數量卻微乎其微。
Conversely, the associated uncertainty contributes to a continuation of marketplace dynamics where the spending level by customers remains rather muted, although there are some areas where we are seeing rollouts advancing.
相反,相關的不確定性導致市場動態持續,儘管我們看到某些領域的推廣正在推進,但客戶的支出水平仍然相當低迷。
The biggest operational tariff challenge we face is around the cost of foreign source componentry mainly from China. We are implementing pricing actions to address this exposure as well as taking operational actions and continuing supply chain activities.
我們面臨的最大營運關稅挑戰是主要來自中國的外國零件成本。我們正在採取定價措施來應對此風險,同時採取營運措施並繼續供應鏈活動。
Our current view is that the margin pressures in Q2 may likely grow in the back half of the year. We expect to have offset these higher costs by the end of the year. Our long-term outlook for this segment remains unchanged. Our leading innovative solutions address our customers challenges. This will drive organic growth, strong margins and increasing cash flow.
我們目前的觀點是,第二季的利潤壓力可能會在今年下半年增加。我們預計到今年底就能抵銷這些增加的成本。我們對該領域的長期展望保持不變。我們領先的創新解決方案解決了客戶面臨的挑戰。這將推動有機成長、強勁利潤率和增加現金流。
For food processing, I do view Q1 as a bit of anomaly. We expect meaningfully higher revenue sequentially into Q2. Margins will also improve from Q1. These views are supported by the impacts of Q1 delayed deliveries, backlog levels and order activity.
對於食品加工而言,我確實認為第一季有點異常。我們預計第二季的營收將連續大幅成長。從第一季開始利潤率也將提高。這些觀點得到了第一季延遲交貨、積壓水平和訂單活動的影響的支持。
For the full year, areas of stronger performance include snack foods and some protein product lines. Uncertainty around trade and consumer behavior creates delays in converting an opportunity into an order and then into revenue. This may challenge us to deliver growth for the year.
就全年而言,表現較強的領域包括零食食品和一些蛋白質產品線。貿易和消費者行為的不確定性導致機會轉化為訂單進而轉化為收入的延遲。這可能會對我們今年實現成長構成挑戰。
But as with our typical pattern, margins should sequentially improve as we proceed through the year. The magnitude may be a little lower than in prior years, given revenue levels and tariff cost impacts. Looking beyond '25, we remain completely bullish on this segment.
但與我們的典型模式一樣,利潤率應該會隨著時間的推移而逐步提高。考慮到收入水準和關稅成本的影響,這一幅度可能比前幾年略低。展望25年後,我們仍對這領域充滿信心。
Our multi-billion dollar pipeline is as robust as ever. Our strengths will drive growth over the coming years. Our full-line solutions resonate with customers and provide strong returns on their investments. We are expanding our capabilities into growing markets of poultry, pet foods and snacks. We provide automated and innovative products across our portfolio. We remain very well positioned to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.
我們的數十億美元的管道一如既往地強勁。我們的優勢將推動未來幾年的成長。我們的全系列解決方案引起了客戶的共鳴並為他們的投資帶來了豐厚的回報。我們正在將我們的能力擴展到不斷增長的家禽、寵物食品和零食市場。我們在整個產品組合中提供自動化和創新的產品。我們仍處於非常有利的位置,可以利用未來的機會。
Lastly, residential may be the strongest performing segment this year. We are seeing stability and even potential growth in some of the premium indoor brands. Tariffs may have quite a negative impact on most outdoor products revenue. However, we continue to introduce new products across our brands and our geographies, a cautiously optimistic view these '25 revenues flat to the prior year.
最後,住宅可能是今年表現最強勁的部分。我們看到一些高端室內品牌的穩定性甚至潛在的成長。關稅可能會對大多數戶外產品的收入產生相當負面的影響。然而,我們繼續在我們的品牌和地區推出新產品,謹慎樂觀地認為25年的收入將與去年持平。
We are taking actions to maintain at least double-digit margins and realize that our views are highly dependent on consumer sentiment and spending so there certainly is some risk associated with this outlook.
我們正在採取行動維持至少兩位數的利潤率,並意識到我們的觀點高度依賴消費者情緒和支出,因此這種前景肯定存在一些風險。
But overall, we have full confidence in our long-term outlook. We expect cash flows to remain strong. We will continue to deliver value to shareholders through our innovation, operational excellence and significantly heightened share buyback levels.
但總體而言,我們對我們的長期前景充滿信心。我們預計現金流將保持強勁。我們將繼續透過創新、卓越營運和大幅提高的股票回購水準為股東創造價值。
We've consistently demonstrated our ability to manage our business effectively maintain a strong balance sheet and preserve margins under challenging market conditions. We are leaders in innovation. Our solutions address our customers' pressing business challenges. The current environment makes it a little hard to predict the next two to three quarters, but our confidence in the next two to three years remains high.
我們始終如一地證明,我們有能力有效地管理業務,在充滿挑戰的市場條件下維持強勁的資產負債表並保持利潤率。我們是創新領域的領導者。我們的解決方案解決了客戶緊迫的業務挑戰。目前的環境使得預測未來兩到三個季度有些困難,但我們對未來兩到三年的信心仍然很高。
Thank you, and we will now take your questions.
謝謝,我們現在將回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Walt Liptak, Seaport.
沃爾特·利普塔克,海港。
Walt Liptak - Analyst
Walt Liptak - Analyst
Hi, thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the 2025 sales guidance. You were previously at low single digit, and you just provide segment guidance. I wonder what you're thinking about for the company in total. And then within the three segments, where you're seeing the biggest change? Is it food processing where the outlook has changed the most? Or is it in the CFS segment.
你好,謝謝。大家早安。我想問一下 2025 年的銷售指導。您之前的收入處於低個位數,並且您僅提供細分指導。我想知道您對公司總體上有什麼想法。那麼在這三個部分中,您看到最大的改變在哪裡?食品加工產業的前景變化最大嗎?或它在 CFS 段中。
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Walt. It's Bryan. I'll take that one. Obviously, the full year outlook is going to be mostly driven by commercial, given it being the largest segment. So I think based on what we're seeing today, even though as we think it improves over the course of the year, that keeps the expectations on the full year, mostly aligned with how commercial will turn out.
謝謝,沃爾特。我是布萊恩。我要那個。顯然,由於商業是最大的細分市場,全年前景將主要受商業驅動。因此,我認為,根據我們今天看到的情況,儘管我們認為情況會在一年內有所改善,但對全年的預期仍然與商業結果基本一致。
A lot of the change in the outlook really is due to, I'll call it, the change in the macro and the change in the trade environment and what that is meant to uncertainty around consumer behavior, what that means to what our customers are seeing in the marketplace and their investment decisions.
我把前景的許多變化實際上歸因於宏觀經濟的變化和貿易環境的變化,以及這些變化對消費者行為的不確定性、對我們的客戶在市場上看到的情況及其投資決策的影響。
And so I do think that goes across to a certain extent, most of our segments. The dynamics are a little bit different in residential, where it's consumers making investment decisions as opposed to in commercial and food processing, right, where it is businesses making business decisions.
因此我確實認為這在一定程度上涵蓋了我們的大多數領域。住宅領域的動態略有不同,住宅領域的投資決策由消費者做出,而商業和食品加工領域的投資決策則由企業做出。
But I think as well discussed in the general marketplace, right, uncertainty creates challenging time for people to make the investments. And so that is what's caused our outlook to maybe be a little bit more muted today than it was the last time we discussed results.
但我認為,正如整個市場所討論的那樣,不確定性給人們的投資帶來了挑戰。因此,與上次討論結果相比,今天的前景可能更加低迷。
Walt Liptak - Analyst
Walt Liptak - Analyst
Okay. Great. And when you roll it all up, what are you thinking about for the revenue for 2025, especially in the back here (technical difficulty)
好的。偉大的。當你把所有這些加起來時,你對 2025 年的收入有什麼看法,尤其是後面這部分(技術難度)
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Like I said, things are going to -- should sequentially improve over the year, but I don't want to get explicitly pointed with a point estimate or a tight range for the year. But I think where we noted that growth is going to be a little bit challenged in at least two of the segments, right, that overall outlook is what would also be applied to the full company.
是的。就像我說過的,情況會——應該會在一年內逐步改善,但我不想明確地指出這一年的點估計或狹窄範圍。但我認為,正如我們指出的那樣,至少在兩個領域,成長將面臨一些挑戰,對吧,整體前景也將適用於整個公司。
Walt Liptak - Analyst
Walt Liptak - Analyst
Okay. Got it. Okay, thanks so much.
好的。知道了。好的,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc.
傑夫·哈蒙德,KeyBanc。
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Just wanted to start with the buyback decision. Just what informed that -- is it recognition like M&A is fewer and farther between or it's difficult or recognition on where the valuation of your company is versus deals or focus on ROC? Just more color there. Thanks.
嘿,早安。我只是想從回購決定開始。究竟是什麼告知了這一點——是像併購這樣的認可越來越少,還是很難或很難認識到你的公司估值與交易或關注 ROC 的關係?那裡顏色更豐富。謝謝。
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean, I would say it's a combination of a number of factors, and you sit on a couple of a moment. I think first and foremost, it's our view our valuation, something that we've been spending time on going through last year led to the spin.
是的。我的意思是,我想說這是多種因素的結合,你坐在那裡一會兒。我認為首先也是最重要的,是我們對我們的估值的看法,去年我們花了很多時間對此進行研究,這導致了這次分拆。
But as we kind of think about our business, and as I mentioned in the comments, it is we really do believe that is stronger than ever the last handful of years, we've come a long way with the strength of each of the portfolios, the amount of innovation, how we've transformed our go-to-market processes. So -- and that's kind of against this backdrop of some of the challenging dynamics.
但是,當我們思考我們的業務時,正如我在評論中提到的那樣,我們確實相信,過去幾年我們的業務比以往任何時候都更加強大,我們在每個產品組合的實力、創新的數量以及我們如何轉變我們的市場進入流程方面都取得了長足的進步。所以 — — 這是在一些充滿挑戰的動態背景下發生的。
So I mean, I think -- and at the same time, we've grown cash flows, profitability is still leading. So I think we believe inherently that the share price is not reflecting that. So I mean I think that's the number one factors, so we're the best investment in town. I think at the same time, our cash flows have grown, like we've compounded over a long period of time.
所以我的意思是,我認為——與此同時,我們的現金流增加了,盈利能力仍然領先。因此我認為我們從本質上相信股價並沒有反映這一點。所以我認為這是最重要的因素,所以我們是鎮上最好的投資。我認為同時,我們的現金流也在成長,就像我們在很長一段時間內複合成長一樣。
We've got a lot of cash flow to deploy, as Bryan mentioned in his comments, the balance sheet is also strong as we've delevered from 3 times to 2 times, which was also very intentional by the company we're in a much better place from a cash flow and balance sheet position.
我們有大量現金流可供部署,正如布萊恩在評論中提到的那樣,資產負債表也很強勁,因為我們已經將槓桿率從 3 倍降低到 2 倍,這也是公司有意為之,從現金流和資產負債表狀況來看,我們的處境要好得多。
So where do we want to deploy that cash, and that is to our best investment. And then as you kind of think about M&A, if you look at really where we focus the last couple of years, I think five out of the last six deals have been food processing. So we've been scaling that business, and that's really the segment that's got the most opportunities.
那麼,我們該把這些現金部署到哪裡呢?這才是我們最好的投資。然後,當您考慮併購時,如果您真正看看我們過去幾年關注的重點,我認為過去六筆交易中有五筆與食品加工有關。因此,我們一直在擴大該業務,而這確實是擁有最多機會的領域。
So I think as we've grown, there is differences in what are the opportunities in each of the three segments and some of the merit of why we've moved towards the separation because we do think that food processing going forward is still going to be has a lot of M&A opportunities where the other businesses are a bit more mature and even the investments that we've made in commercial and residential to a certain extent, have been largely technology focused, I would say, enhancing our organic growth initiatives.
因此,我認為隨著我們的成長,三個領域中的機會存在差異,我們之所以走向分離,部分原因是因為我們確實認為,未來食品加工仍將有很多併購機會,而其他業務則更加成熟,甚至我們在商業和住宅領域的投資在一定程度上也主要集中在技術上,我想說,這將增強我們的有機增長計劃。
So I think that's a number of those factors with the evolution of the business kind of led to that decision. So we're very excited about the buyback. So yeah, so hopefully, that gives you a little bit more perspective.
所以我認為,業務發展過程中的一系列因素導致了這個決定。因此我們對此次回購感到非常興奮。是的,希望這能帶給你更多的視角。
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
No, that's helpful. And then I guess with respect to tariffs and the tariff, I wanted to better understand, one, given your our US-centric footprint, where do you think there are the biggest opportunities for share gains and how quickly those can come through?
不,這很有幫助。然後我想就關稅和關稅問題而言,我想更了解,第一,考慮到我們以美國為中心的足跡,您認為哪裡是實現份額增長的最大機會,以及這些機會能多快實現?
And then conversely, I think the grills business has been a challenge, and I think most of that is sourced out of China. So what's kind of the risk in the short term and the long term strategy to kind of right the ship on the grill side?
相反,我認為烤架業務一直是一個挑戰,我認為大部分業務來自中國。那麼短期內的風險是什麼呢?長期來看,有什麼策略可以讓燒烤產業走上正軌呢?
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I'll start and then I'll kind of kick it around here. I mean I think even though we put out, I'll say, a big number and that's kind of more the gross number, we are confident we're going to offset. I mean, I think, certainly, operating initiatives, which include supply chain, which we're -- the strength of that capability is much more developed today than a few years ago. And I think those also the strength of the overall platform in our manufacturing.
是的。我先開始,然後我會在這裡討論一下。我的意思是,我認為即使我們得出的數字很大,而且這更像是一個總數,我們也有信心能夠抵消這一影響。我的意思是,我認為,當然,包括供應鏈在內的營運舉措——這種能力的強度今天比幾年前要發達得多。我認為這些也是我們製造業整體平台的優點。
But we are highly confident we're going to offset this number. A price increase is, I think, will -- is not a scary number to us. So I think we have a high degree of confidence that through the balance of this year, this will all be offset. So your other question we really are a US-centric manufacturer. So the tariffs really are an opportunity.
但我們非常有信心能夠抵銷這個數字。我認為,價格上漲對我們來說並不是一個可怕的數字。因此,我認為我們非常有信心,透過今年的平衡,所有這些都將被抵消。所以你的另一個問題是,我們確實是一家以美國為中心的製造商。因此,關稅確實是一個機會。
In some ways, we're a bit excited about the tariffs. So we actually don't want them all to go away. I mean, as you kind of look across different product categories, for example, light-duty and counter line cooking equipment, we're kind of the last man standing with brands like Star, Toastmaster, Wells, Holman, a lot of that business with our competitors has been shifted overseas. So we see that as an advantage. But speed could friers induction is an area we've been investing.
從某種程度上來說,我們對關稅感到有點興奮。所以我們其實並不希望它們全部消失。我的意思是,當你觀察不同的產品類別時,例如輕型和桌上型烹飪設備,我們可以說是與 Star、Toastmaster、Wells、Holman 等品牌抗衡的最後一人,我們與競爭對手的許多業務已經轉移到海外。因此我們認為這是一個優勢。但速度油炸機感應加熱是我們一直在投資的領域。
We're the only manufacturer of induction in the US of our coffee platform that we've invested in, we're largely competing with Swiss, German, Italian and we're the channel-based guys, undercounter refrigeration also on the residential side of the business. Most of our competition today is in China. So we're very well positioned. So there's actually quite a few categories, both commercial and residential that we think we're going to benefit from.
我們是美國唯一一家投資的咖啡平台電磁爐製造商,我們主要與瑞士、德國、義大利競爭,我們是基於通路的公司,台下冷凍設備也應用於住宅業務。我們今天的大多數競爭對手都在中國。因此我們的定位非常有利。因此,實際上我們認為有很多類別,包括商業和住宅類別,都將使我們受益。
So we very often kind of put the USA flag on our boxes, but that means a lot more today and hopefully next year as we go forward. On the outdoor, I'm first going to start with the premium. So we manufacture a premium outdoor in Greenwood, Mississippi. That's actually one of the initiatives over the last several years is to consolidate some of our outdoor premium lines, including Viking and Lynx there. So operationally, we're much stronger today and a lot of our competition is coming from overseas, China in particular.
因此,我們經常在包裝盒上印上美國國旗,但這在今天意味著更多,希望明年也能如此。在戶外,我首先要從優質產品開始。因此,我們在密西西比州格林伍德生產優質戶外產品。這實際上是我們過去幾年的舉措之一,旨在整合我們的一些戶外高端產品線,包括 Viking 和 Lynx。因此從營運角度來看,我們今天的實力更加強大,我們的許多競爭來自海外,尤其是中國。
So that's going to position us well there. And then on the other growth segments, we've got action plans in place. We're in a similar boat to our competitors. So I think we -- that the team has swung into action to counter some of those tariffs out there. I think it will have an immediate market dynamic, but I think we'll navigate it as well as anybody there.
因此這將使我們處於有利地位。針對其他成長領域,我們已經制定了行動計劃。我們與競爭對手的處境類似。所以我認為我們——團隊已經開始採取行動來應對其中的一些關稅。我認為它將立即產生市場活力,但我認為我們會像任何人一樣很好地駕馭它。
And certainly, some of the orders that may get delayed in a quarter or two, we think, will just create some pent-up demand for the latter part of the year.
當然,我們認為,一些可能會在一兩個季度內被推遲的訂單,只會在今年下半年產生一些被壓抑的需求。
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Jeff Hammond - Analyst
Okay. Appreciate the call, Tim.
好的。感謝您的來電,提姆。
Operator
Operator
Mig Dobre, Baird.
米格·多布雷,貝爾德。
Mig Dobre - Analyst
Mig Dobre - Analyst
Thanks, good morning. Maybe just some clarification around this tariffs figure, the $175 million at the midpoint. Is there a way to help us understand the allocation at segment level? What would the breakdown be between the three segments? And you talked about being able to offset these costs by year-end. So I'm kind of understanding this that into 2026, you expect this to be offset.
謝謝,早安。也許只是對這個關稅數字(中間值為 1.75 億美元)進行一些澄清。有沒有辦法幫助我們了解段層級的分配?這三個部分之間的細分情況是怎麼樣的?您談到了到年底能夠抵銷這些成本。所以我有點理解到2026年,你預計這種情況會被抵銷。
But how do we think about these costs flowing through in Q2, Q3, Q4? Presumably, it takes a little bit of time before you can actually get to where you fully offset these costs.
但是我們要如何看待第二季、第三季、第四季的這些成本呢?據推測,你需要花一點時間才能真正完全抵消這些成本。
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah. Mig, this is Steve. I'm happy to take a first pass at it. I think in terms of the allocation across the three segments, if you're -- maybe I'll just use percentages of the $175 million, I think the impact is I'll call it, weighted more towards commercial and towards residential and actually probably less on food processing. So if I had kind of round numbers, I'd probably say it's something like 70%-ish would be commercial. And 20% is residential and then 10%, food processing. It's somewhere in that neighborhood in terms of scale of the overall $175 million.
是的。米格,這是史蒂夫。我很高興能先嘗試看看。我認為,就三個部門的分配而言,如果你——也許我會只使用 1.75 億美元的百分比,我認為影響就是,更多地偏向商業和住宅,而實際上可能較少偏向食品加工。因此,如果我有一個大概的數字,我可能會說大約 70% 是商業性的。 20% 用於住宅,10% 用於食品加工。從整體規模來看,它處於這個水平,約為 1.75 億美元。
The big difference between, I would say, commercial and residential versus food processing is you don't have really any componentry being sourced from China or not as much in the food processing space. So that's how I would think about the allocation across the three segments. I think in terms of how we're mitigating it, we have talked a lot about the pricing actions that we would take.
我想說,商業和住宅與食品加工之間的最大區別在於,你實際上沒有任何零件來自中國,或者在食品加工領域沒有那麼多。這就是我對三個部分之間分配的看法。我認為就我們如何緩解這個問題而言,我們已經討論了很多我們將採取的定價行動。
In commercial, we've already announced a July 1 price increase that we're working through as we speak. We try to be very intentional around the timing of the increase to try to give as much clarity to our customers as possible.
在商業方面,我們已經宣布了 7 月 1 日起的價格上漲,目前我們正在努力實現這一目標。我們試著非常有意識地選擇漲價時間,以便盡可能為客戶提供清晰的資訊。
So we feel like we are able to drive the pricing through the back half of the year. I think we've proven that we can do this over the last several -- three, four, five years as we've gone through inflationary periods and be able to get pricing through the market. So that's our intention at this point.
因此,我們覺得我們能夠在下半年推動定價。我認為,過去幾年(三、四、五年)我們已經證明我們可以做到這一點,因為我們經歷了通貨膨脹時期,並且能夠透過市場定價。這就是我們目前的意圖。
I also think that we are better positioned today from a supply chain standpoint. Again, going through the last three, four, five years of supply chain disruption has actually, I think, enabled us to withstand this next period of disruption. We've actually moved a decent amount of sourcing of componentry into the US over the last five years.
我也認為,從供應鏈的角度來看,我們今天處於更有利的地位。再說一次,我認為,經歷過去三、四、五年的供應鏈中斷實際上使我們能夠抵禦下一輪中斷。事實上,在過去五年中,我們已經將相當數量的零件採購轉移到了美國。
So even though China remains a decent spend on componentry. It's actually less today than it was five years ago, I think, thanks to our supply chain team. I think other capabilities around like we have a facility in Nogales, Mexico that has become an in-sourcing capability for us.
因此,儘管中國在零件方面的支出仍然可觀。我認為,今天的數量實際上比五年前要少,這要歸功於我們的供應鏈團隊。我認為其他能力,例如我們在墨西哥諾加萊斯的工廠,已經成為我們的內部採購能力。
So even though there are tariffs, they're obviously coming in from Mexico into the US, obviously substantially less than China. So we have already been -- even before this latest round tariff has been moving in-house manufacturing from China to Mexico.
因此,儘管有關稅,但從墨西哥進口到美國的商品顯然比中國少得多。因此,甚至在最新一輪關稅實施之前,我們就已將內部製造從中國轉移到墨西哥。
So between pricing, supply chain and operational initiatives, I think that's why we're confident, Mig, that we can in the back half of this year, overcome and mitigate the tariff impact to have us more or less a cost neutral standpoint going into '26.
因此,在定價、供應鏈和營運舉措之間,我認為這就是為什麼我們有信心,Mig,我們可以在今年下半年克服和減輕關稅的影響,使我們在進入26年時或多或少地保持成本中性的立場。
Mig Dobre - Analyst
Mig Dobre - Analyst
That's helpful. And maybe this is parsing things too finely, but in CSS specifically, you've got, call it, 4%, I guess the cost headwind would be about 4% of sales, right? So as you think about these the things that you have to do to offset that -- what we how much that do you think is pricing versus all these other cost actions that you've sort of talked about.
這很有幫助。也許這樣分析太過細緻,但具體到 CSS 中,你得到的是,稱之為 4%,我猜成本阻力大約佔銷售額的 4%,對嗎?因此,當您考慮這些事情時,您必須做些事情來抵消這一點——您認為定價與您所談到的所有其他成本行動相比是多少。
And I'm asking the question because you did talk about the fact that you were able to put through pricing in prior years, and that was very clear, but the industry was in a very different spot, right? We've been reeling here with destocking weak demand this is not a great environment to be able to put through price increases. So how reliant are you specifically on pricing? And how confident are you that you're going to be able to actually get that.
我之所以問這個問題,是因為您確實談到了前幾年能夠制定定價的事實,這一點非常清楚,但當時的行業狀況非常不同,對嗎?我們一直受到去庫存和疲軟需求的困擾,這不是一個能夠提高價格的好環境。那麼您對定價的依賴程度具體有多高?您對於自己能否真正實現這個目標有多大信心?
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah. It's a very fair question, Mig. I think as we think about the impact of pricing just in terms of scale, I expect that the pricing we set forth on July 1 is going to be in the mid to high single-digit range. So a predominant part of the coverage is going to come from pricing. And obviously, the rest of it is going to come from the operational and supply chain initiatives.
是的。這是一個非常公平的問題,米格。我認為,當我們從規模的角度考慮定價的影響時,我預計我們在 7 月 1 日制定的定價將處於中高個位數範圍內。因此,保險覆蓋範圍的主要部分將來自定價。顯然,其餘部分將來自營運和供應鏈計劃。
I would say from a competitive landscape standpoint, from what we've seen so far, I think that puts us below the majority of our competitors. So even though it is another increase to your point on an already tough pricing spot. We actually think we're positioned better in a lower price point from our competitors.
我想說,從競爭格局的角度來看,從我們目前所看到的情況來看,我認為這使我們落後於大多數競爭對手。因此,儘管這又一次提高了你對已經很困難的定價點的看法。我們實際上認為,我們比競爭對手在更低的價格上處於更有利的地位。
I do believe that the way I think we can be effective in getting the pricing through goes back to being very transparent in our approach, which I think is something we were effective with going back several years ago. Our customers are not ignorant to, hey, there is this tariff impact. They know that they're going to have to absorb a majority of it or a portion of it. It goes back to being transparent with customers on where the increases are coming from.
我確實相信,我認為我們能夠有效地透過定價的方式可以追溯到我們的方法非常透明,我認為這是幾年前我們有效的做法。我們的客戶並非不知道,嘿,存在這種關稅影響。他們知道他們必須吸收其中的大部分或一部分。它又恢復了對顧客透明化,告知顧客漲價的來源。
And I think it's also transparent on, hey, if tariffs do go away, that we would adjust pricing accordingly to remain competitive in the marketplace. So I think if you take that approach, and again, we've already started these conversations with the majority of our big customers that we feel like we can get the pricing through.
而且我認為,如果關稅真的取消,我們也會相應地調整價格,以保持市場競爭力。所以我認為,如果你採取這種方法,而且我們已經開始與大多數大客戶進行這些對話,我們覺得我們可以獲得定價。
I actually do believe to round it out even though the pricing is tough in the market that we're in, it still favors us more than, I think, anybody because it puts more and more focus on we still have to solve for all the challenges the restaurants are facing with food costs, which are facing inflation again, labor continues to be a challenge, utility costs.
我確實相信,儘管我們所處的市場定價很嚴格,但我認為,這仍然對我們更有利,因為它越來越關注我們仍然必須解決餐館面臨的所有挑戰,包括食品成本、再次面臨通貨膨脹、勞動力仍然是一個挑戰、公用事業成本。
And that ultimately still comes back to us as a solution to help solve for all of those things. So that would be my positive spend on even if costs continue to go up, I think they look to us to help solve those challenges that the restaurants continue to face.
而這最終還是會回到我們身邊,作為幫助解決所有這些問題的解決方案。因此,即使成本繼續上升,這也是我的積極支出,我認為他們也希望我們能夠幫助解決餐廳繼續面臨的挑戰。
Mig Dobre - Analyst
Mig Dobre - Analyst
That's helpful. And if I may squeeze one last one. When we're thinking about the revenue outlook based on what you know today, I know that in Q2 typically, we see a little seasonal bump relative to Q1 for the revenue, and I'm wondering if that's still reasonable to expect?
這很有幫助。如果我可以再擠最後一個的話。當我們根據您今天所了解的情況考慮收入前景時,我知道通常情況下,第二季度的收入相對於第一季會出現一些季節性的成長,我想知道這種預期是否仍然合理?
And then relative to the second half, in your slides, you talk about the fact that new store openings for your customers are weighted to the second half of 2025. How reliant is your revenue on these new store openings? Or maybe put differently, how much risk do we have from store openings potentially getting pushed out into 2026 or some later date? Thank you.
然後相對於下半年,在您的幻燈片中,您談到了為客戶開設新店的時間集中在 2025 年下半年。您的收入對這些新店開設的依賴程度如何?或者換句話說,如果商店開業時間被推遲到 2026 年或更晚,我們會面臨多大的風險?謝謝。
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Mig, it's Steve again. So I think Bryan called out sequential improvement that we believe will be in place second quarter over first quarter. So I don't know if I'd quite call it seasonality, but I do believe that second quarter sequentially will be above first quarter for commercial.
米格,又是史蒂夫。因此,我認為布萊恩所說的連續改善將在第二季度比第一季有所體現。所以我不知道是否可以稱之為季節性,但我確實相信第二季的商業表現將連續高於第一季。
Yeah, new store openings, we've talked a fair bit about over the last several years. We get pretty regular updates from I'll call at least our top 25 chain customers in terms of new store openings by market, by country, et cetera.
是的,過去幾年我們談論過很多關於新店開幕的事情。我們會定期從至少前 25 家連鎖客戶處獲取有關按市場、按國家等劃分的新店開業情況的更新資訊。
If you look at that list today of the top 25 chains we do business with and there are new store opening plans for this year, yes, there has been pushouts or pushouts last year. I think you'll see some ebb and flow still this year.
如果您今天查看與我們有業務往來的 25 家頂級連鎖店名單,並且查看今年的新店開業計劃,您就會發現,去年確實出現了一些推遲開業或延期開業的情況。我認為今年你仍會看到一些起伏。
But for the most part, they would all have in their build plans, but the remaining three quarters of development this year are net higher than the same period in the back half of last year. So they continue to reiterate that. Do I think there's going to be some push out here or there?
但就大多數而言,它們都已列入建設計劃,但今年剩餘三個季度的開發量均高於去年下半年同期。因此他們繼續重申這一點。我是否認為這裡或那裡會有一些推動力?
Yes, I do. But I think by and large, the numbers they continue to give to us do reflect a year over year improvement in net development for the remaining three quarters of this year.
是的,我願意。但我認為,總的來說,他們繼續提供給我們的數字確實反映了今年剩餘三個季度淨發展的同比增長。
Mig Dobre - Analyst
Mig Dobre - Analyst
Great. Thank you so much.
偉大的。太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Tim Thein, Raymond James.
提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。
Tim Thein - Analyst
Tim Thein - Analyst
Thank you. I'll try and keep this tight here. I have two questions on commercial. The first being the mix benefit that you called out helping to support margins. I'm curious if that was a channel or product mix, obviously, the product mix can swing around on a quarter-to-quarter basis. But just curious if that's something that -- I guess the question is kind of the element of sustainability on that.
謝謝。我會盡力保持緊密。我有兩個關於商業的問題。首先是您提到的混合優勢有助於支撐利潤率。我很好奇那是個通路還是產品組合,顯然,產品組合可以按季度波動。但我只是好奇這是否是某種東西——我想問題在於它的可持續性因素。
And then I guess, Steve, just continuing on that last thread that you're talking about in terms of the new store openings. My sense is, at least from -- and obviously, I don't have the lens that you do in terms of the number of operation or operators, but it seems like more of that mix maybe is kind of oriented towards international markets.
然後我想,史蒂夫,繼續你關於新店開幕的最後一個話題。我的感覺是,至少從——顯然,我沒有像你那樣從運營或運營商的數量來看待問題,但似乎更多的組合可能面向國際市場。
I'm curious if that is a, if you're seeing that, B does that -- how Middleby is positioned to the extent that, that REIT is accurate that, i.e., more of the new store growth being outside North America? Thank you.
我很好奇,如果您看到了,B 會這樣做 - Middleby 的定位如何,REIT 是否準確,即更多的新店增長發生在北美以外?謝謝。
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
Bryan Mittelman - Chief Financial Officer
This is Bryan. I'll start with the mix and the margins in Q1 on commercial. It actually has contributed to both, I'll say, customer and product. We've noted that we have some businesses in the beverage platform that performed well because of the value they create for our customers as well as just as you go, I'll say, up and down the list of the different -- the many different brands we have and which segments of customers were buying that there was some positive mix in terms of which customer segments we're buying at higher levels this quarter.
這是布萊恩。我將從第一季的商業組合和利潤開始。我想說,它實際上對客戶和產品都有貢獻。我們注意到,我們在飲料平台上的一些業務表現良好,因為它們為我們的客戶創造了價值,而且正如您所說,在我們擁有的不同品牌的列表中,以及我們購買的客戶群體中,本季度我們在更高層次上購買的客戶群體方面存在一些積極的組合。
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
And Tim, this is Steve to answer your question about the international mix on new store openings, you are spot on. If you were to bucket the new store opening pipeline for this year, from a domestic versus international standpoint? It will -- it is definitely more heavily weighted. It's probably something like 75-25, maybe even 80-20 towards international markets. You certainly see a lot of growth with some of the bigger chains in markets.
蒂姆,我是史蒂夫,我將回答您關於新店開業的國際組合的問題,您說得對。如果您要對今年新開門店的計劃進行分類,是從國內還是國際的角度?它會——它肯定會更加重要。對於國際市場來說,這個比例可能大約是 75% 比 25% 甚至 80% 比 20%。你肯定會看到市場上一些較大的連鎖店取得了很大的成長。
Actually, Europe is doing well. places like India, Brazil, are markets where you continue to see these chains look for new franchisees and new markets to enter into. I think Middleby is incredibly well positioned. I think we've put a lot of investment into having the resources, both from a pre-sale and post-sale perspective, I mean, service, especially in international markets for these changes incredibly important. I think we've put a lot of time and resources and investment into Europe, into the UK, into India, into the Middle East, and I think that lines up very well with where we're seeing that growth take place from our biggest chain customers.
事實上,歐洲表現良好。在印度、巴西等地,你會看到這些連鎖店不斷尋找新的特許經營商和新的市場。我認為米德爾比處於非常有利的位置。我認為我們在資源方面投入了大量資金,無論是從售前還是售後的角度,我的意思是服務,特別是在國際市場上,這些變化非常重要。我認為我們在歐洲、英國、印度、中東投入了大量的時間、資源和投資,我認為這與我們最大的連鎖客戶的成長方向非常吻合。
Tim Thein - Analyst
Tim Thein - Analyst
Excellent. Thank you, Steve.
出色的。謝謝你,史蒂夫。
Operator
Operator
Tami Zakaria, JP Morgan.
摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thank you so much. So my first question is on the $150 million to $200 million impact you mentioned from tariffs, half of which is from China. Is that number based on the current 145% tariff rate. What I'm trying to understand is what the benefit or reversal could look like if that rate comes down to a more manageable level in the coming months.
嘿,早安。太感謝了。所以我的第一個問題是您提到的關稅造成的 1.5 億至 2 億美元的影響,其中一半來自中國。這個數字是根據目前 145% 的關稅稅率計算的嗎?我想了解的是,如果未來幾個月該利率降至更易於管理的水平,將會出現什麼樣的收益或逆轉。
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So it's -- the true gross number is maybe slightly higher than that. So I think the range we've kind of taken a view of a little bit of a haircut of what we think it might model out to. So I would say we've assumed it might be anywhere from 20% to 40% lower looking at all the different countries in China, in particular. So that kind of gave us the range of $150 million to $200 million.
是的。所以,實際總數可能略高於這個數字。所以我認為,我們對我們認為可能建模的範圍進行了一點削減。因此我想說,我們假設從所有不同國家來看,尤其是中國,這個數字可能會低 20% 到 40%。因此,我們的預算範圍是 1.5 億至 2 億美元。
Possibly, that range can't come down further depending on obviously how the negotiations with tariffs go. So that's kind of -- that is what we think is an adjusted gross number.
有可能,該範圍無法進一步下降,這顯然取決於關稅談判的進展。所以,我們認為這是一個調整後的總數。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Understood. Very helpful. And my second question is on the buyback. Are you expecting most of the free cash flow you're going to generate this year to go for buyback.
明白了。非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於回購的。您是否預計今年產生的大部分自由現金流將用於回購。
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean I think the term we use in there is vast. So I mean I think really we are thinking about using essentially the entirety of our cash flow this year certainly will take a lot of other factors into consideration, but we're pretty committed to deploying most of our cash flow to the buyback.
是的。我的意思是,我認為我們在那裡使用的術語是廣泛的。所以我的意思是,我認為我們真的在考慮使用今年基本上全部的現金流,當然也會考慮很多其他因素,但我們非常致力於將大部分現金流用於回購。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Got it. Super helpful. Thank you.
知道了。超有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.
Canaccord Genuity 的 Brian McNamara。
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. In commercial foodservice, I'm curious what competitive price increases that you have observed already in the marketplace in response to tariffs thus far and how those would compare to kind of the mid, high single digit that you're planning on taking July 1. I think you said you expect ours to be below, but I'm curious what you've observed already, if anything.
嘿,大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。在商業食品服務領域,我很好奇到目前為止,您已經觀察到市場因關稅而出現的競爭性價格上漲,以及這些價格上漲與您計劃在 7 月 1 日採取的中高個位數漲幅相比如何。我想您說過您預計我們的價格會低於這個數字,但我很好奇您已經觀察到了什麼,如果有的話。
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Steven Spittle - Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah, Brian, this is Steve. I mean, I'll preface my comments by obviously, there's a wide range of products and brands within Middleby. And we think competitors obviously crosses over a pretty wide landscape. I would just say, first and foremost, when the tariff news first broke, earlier this year. I think we've built a lot of goodwill from our customer standpoint.
是的,布萊恩,這是史蒂夫。我的意思是,我首先要說的是,Middleby 擁有各種各樣的產品和品牌。我們認為競爭對手顯然跨越了相當廣泛的領域。我首先想說的是,今年早些時候,當關稅消息首次爆出時。我認為從客戶的角度來看我們已經建立了許多良好的聲譽。
We took an approach of a little bit more of a wait and see that, a, we won't give you as much certainty as possible in uncertain times. And so that's why our (technical difficulty) going up July 1 is actually later than many. I think a lot of our competitors, I would say, rush to put something across the line without having a lot of data to support it. And I think that did not play well from a customer standpoint.
我們採取了一種觀望的態度,在不確定的時期,我們不會給你盡可能多的確定性。這就是為什麼我們的(技術難度)在 7 月 1 日上升實際上比許多人都要晚。我想說,我們的許多競爭對手都在沒有大量數據支援的情況下急於推出新產品。我認為從客戶的角度來看這並不是好事。
So I think we've taken the right approach of being a little bit more thoughtful in making sure we had as much data to support our increase as possible going back to being transparent to get the pricing through.
因此,我認為我們採取了正確的方法,即更加周到地確保我們擁有盡可能多的數據來支持我們的漲價,並重新保持透明以讓定價得以通過。
In terms of the competitive landscape, again, Brian, our increase is going to be just again in the mid-single-digit range. We have seen competitors anywhere from 10% to 25% in terms of increases. Tim called it out earlier. We've also seen a number of competitors that bring in product directly from China, either having to take massive increases in that 25%-plus range or simply saying, hey, they're getting out of those products.
就競爭格局而言,布萊恩,我們的增幅將再次達到中等個位數。我們發現競爭對手的漲幅在 10% 到 25% 之間。提姆早些時候就說過了。我們也看到許多直接從中國進口產品的競爭對手,要么不得不接受 25% 以上的大幅漲價,要么乾脆說,嘿,他們要退出這些產品。
So that's where we see, again, a pretty big opportunity in the countertop space, the cooking space, priors, ovens, et cetera. So we definitely feel like we have a competitive advantage both from the pricing standpoint and from, again, having the product coming out of the US and not bringing anything in from China.
因此,我們再次看到了檯面空間、烹飪空間、烤箱等領域的巨大機會。因此,我們確實覺得,無論從定價角度還是從產品來自美國而不是從中國進口的角度來看,我們都具有競爭優勢。
Operator
Operator
A Brian, I hope that answers your question.
A Brian,我希望這回答了你的問題。
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Yeah, sorry, on tariffs -- thank you for that, Steve. I'm curious, is there any nuance as it relates to China tariffs specifically. We've heard that like this the Section 232 steel tariffs, super seed or reciprocal tariffs from other companies. I know it sounds like your exposure is only on the component side. But is there anything investors should be kind of mindful of us as it relates to the nuances associated with the stack ability of kind of the reciprocals versus the steel as it relates to the componentry.
是的,抱歉,關於關稅——謝謝你,史蒂夫。我很好奇,這是否與中國關稅具體相關?我們聽說其他公司也採取了類似第 232 條鋼鐵關稅、超級種子關稅或互惠關稅。我知道這聽起來好像你的曝光僅限於組件方面。但是,投資者是否應該注意我們,因為它涉及與組件相關的倒數與鋼材的堆疊能力相關的細微差別。
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
I think we've reflected all those nuances, I think, in the range that we've given. So I guess that's kind of the first comment. There's a handful of strategies to minimize the impact, including different types of classifications, et cetera.
我認為我們已經在給出的範圍內反映了所有這些細微差別。所以我想這是第一則評論。有一些策略可以最大限度地減少影響,包括不同類型的分類等等。
And so I mean I think we have quite a few tools in the toolbox to mitigate the exposure that we see in China, including relocating out of China. But I mean, I think everything that relates to China, we've kind of embedded in all the comments I think that we've already got through here today.
所以我的意思是,我認為我們有相當多的工具來減輕我們在中國看到的風險,包括遷出中國。但我的意思是,我認為與中國有關的一切都已經融入我們今天在這裡發表的所有評論中。
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Great. And then finally, I was just wondering if you could provide an update on any new Open Kitchen rollout and maybe some of the new products featured at NAFEM that are gaining traction and that you're most excited about. I think a lot of the conversation focuses on tariffs when some of you got some exciting stuff going on in the base business.
偉大的。最後,我只是想知道您是否可以提供任何新的開放式廚房推出的最新消息,以及 NAFEM 上展示的一些越來越受歡迎且讓您最興奮的新產品。我認為,當你們中的一些人在基礎業務中看到一些令人興奮的事情時,很多談話都集中在關稅上。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah. So we continue to have good momentum on Open Kitchen. We do have a lot of good pipeline activity with Open Kitchen with some large chain customers. Obviously, I don't want to name names today, but we've got some good velocity behind us with activity, especially around really what I'll call the entire enterprise platform Open Kitchen, that's connectivity at the front of the house, the middle of the house and with the back of the house connectivity with the connected products.
是的。因此我們在開放式廚房方面繼續保持良好的勢頭。我們確實與一些大型連鎖客戶在 Open Kitchen 方面有許多良好的合作管道。顯然,我今天不想點名道姓,但我們的活動進展順利,特別是圍繞我稱之為整個企業平台的開放式廚房,即房屋前部、房屋中部以及房屋後部與連接產品的連接。
Additionally, we are seeing a second order benefit, and we saw this in 2024, where we are winning rollouts because of connectivity. And so we had tens of million dollars of rollouts in '24 because our products were connected to Open Kitchen and that ultimately tipped us over the competition relative to winning that change. So a lot of great momentum with Open Kitchen in the marketplace. And remind me your second question?
此外,我們還看到了二階效益,我們在 2024 年就看到了這一點,由於連結性,我們將贏得推廣。因此,我們在 2024 年投入了數千萬美元進行推廣,因為我們的產品與開放式廚房相連,這最終使我們在競爭中獲勝並贏得了這一變革。開放式廚房在市場上有著很大的發展動能。並提醒我你的第二個問題?
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Brian McNamara - Analyst
The new products you're excited about from NAFEM.
您對 NAFEM 的新產品感到興奮。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah. So I mean we're excited about our entire pipeline. And Tim is going to talk about the Sizzlin' 7 at NRA that we're debuting here. in a couple of weeks. And a lot of the new products are around beverage, beverage dispensing and we've got a lot of great pipeline support on those products.
是的。所以我的意思是,我們對我們的整個管道感到興奮。蒂姆將談論我們在 NRA 首次亮相的 Sizzlin' 7。幾週後。許多新產品都與飲料、飲料分配有關,我們為這些產品提供了大量出色的通路支援。
We have some new products in holding around holding chicken for extended periods of time. And obviously, everybody on the call knows how hot the chicken market is in the QSR space. Beyond that, the frying with the new torque fryer, we're super excited about because we believe that revolution as is the frying industry forever, we take oil life from five days over with the torque fryer.
我們有一些用於長時間保存雞的新產品。顯然,電話會議中的每個人都知道快餐業的雞肉市場有多火爆。除此之外,我們對使用新型扭矩炸鍋進行油炸感到非常興奮,因為我們相信這場革命將是油炸行業永遠的革命,使用扭矩炸鍋,我們可以將油的壽命延長五天。
A couple of other mentions. Obviously, we talk a lot about the Invoq combi oven. We are really starting to get traction on that. We're now rounding that out right after the [interracial] with the introduction of our gas versions of the Invoq combi oven so that will continue to help us drive sales with the Invoq combi.
還有一些其他的提及。顯然,我們談論了很多有關 Invoq 組合烤箱的事情。我們確實開始在這方面取得進展。在 [跨種族] 之後,我們立即推出了 Invoq 組合烤箱的燃氣版本,這將繼續幫助我們推動 Invoq 組合烤箱的銷售。
And then lastly, the imvection oven from Blodgett which offers a unique multi-cavity impingement and convection of an on-demand platform, and we see that really going into the casual dining market and having great success there. So just to wrap it up, very bullish on Open Kitchen and very bullish on our NPI.
最後,Blodgett 的對流烤箱提供了獨特的多腔衝擊和按需平台的對流,我們看到它真正進入了休閒餐飲市場並取得了巨大的成功。總而言之,我們非常看好開放式廚房,也非常看好我們的 NPI。
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Brian McNamara - Analyst
Very helpful. Thanks guys.
非常有幫助。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Timothy FitzGerald for any closing remarks.
謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給蒂莫西·菲茨傑拉德先生,請他作最後發言。
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Fitzgerald - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. No, thank you, everybody, for attending today's call. I was going to put an invite out, and I think James did a great job of covering all the terrific things that we've got going on with innovation. James referred to it there, but we're very proud to be taking kitchen innovation awards at the National Restaurant Show. That's the most of any manufacturer.
是的。不,謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我本來要發出邀請,我認為詹姆斯很好地介紹了我們在創新方面所取得的所有了不起的事情。詹姆斯在那裡提到了這一點,但我們非常自豪能夠在全國餐廳博覽會上獲得廚房創新獎。這是所有製造商中最高的。
And so I would encourage everybody to come and see it. And you'll -- James said but you'll see the latest in automation, kind of next-generation beverage, which is an exciting platform for us and everything digital, including IoT, as James mentioned there, which is a big growth initiative in a huge part of the future for Middleby. So it's May 17 through 20 in Chicago. So hopefully, the invite is out, and we will see many of you there. Thank you.
因此我鼓勵大家來看看。詹姆斯說,你會看到最新的自動化技術,即下一代飲料,這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的平台,以及一切數位化的東西,包括物聯網,正如詹姆斯提到的那樣,這是米德爾比未來很大一部分的重大增長計劃。所以芝加哥的時間是 5 月 17 日至 20 日。所以希望邀請已經發出,我們會在那裡見到你們。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending to this presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加本次演講。您現在可以斷開連線。