M/I Homes Inc (MHO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the M/I Homes fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 M/I Homes 第四季和年終收益電話會議。（操作員指令）

This call is being recorded on Wednesday, January 29, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Phil Creek. Please go ahead.

該通話於 2025 年 1 月 29 日星期三錄製。現在我想將會議交給 Phil Creek。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us. Joining me on the call today is Bob Schottenstein, our CEO and President; and Derek Klutch, President of our mortgage company.

感謝您加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長兼總裁 Bob Schottenstein；以及我們抵押貸款公司的總裁德里克·克魯奇（Derek Klutch）。

First, to address regulation for our disclosure, we encourage you to ask any questions regarding issues that you consider material during this call because we are prohibited from discussing significant non-public items with you directly.

首先，為了滿足我們資訊揭露的規定，我們鼓勵您就本次電話會議中您認為重要的問題提出任何問題，因為我們被禁止直接與您討論重大的非公開事項。

And as to forward-looking statements, want to remind everyone that the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in today's press release also applies to any comments made during this call. Also be advised that the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

至於前瞻性陳述，請想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿中包含的關於前瞻性陳述的警告性語言也適用於本次電話會議期間發表的任何評論。另請注意，本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給鮑伯。

Thanks, Phil. Good morning and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝，菲爾。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

We had an outstanding year in 2024, highlighted by record homes delivered, record revenue, record income, and very strong returns. We are particularly proud of our performance, given the changing economic conditions and demand challenges we faced, particularly throughout the latter part of the year.

2024 年是我們出色的一年，亮點包括創紀錄的房屋交付量、創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的收入和非常強勁的回報。考慮到我們面臨的不斷變化的經濟狀況和需求挑戰，尤其是在今年下半年，我們對自己的表現感到特別自豪。

As everyone knows, mortgage rates began rising during the third and fourth quarters. At that time, we implemented mortgage rate buydowns to generate traffic and incent sales. Demand has become a bit more choppy during the fourth quarter, and the need for such rate buydowns became an even more important part of our business strategy.

眾所周知，抵押貸款利率在第三季和第四季開始上升。當時，我們實施了抵押貸款利率降低措施，以吸引流量和刺激銷售。第四季度，需求變得更加不穩定，這種利率下調的需要已成為我們業務策略中更為重要的一部分。

I will more fully discuss the impact of all of this in a few moments. First, I will review the highlights of our 2024 performance. For the full year, homes delivered increased 12% to a record 9,055 homes, generating a record $4.5 billion in revenue, a 12% increase over 2023.

稍後我將更全面地討論這一切的影響。首先，我將回顧我們2024年業績的亮點。全年交付房屋數量成長 12%，達到創紀錄的 9,055 套，創造了創紀錄的 45 億美元收入，比 2023 年成長 12%。

Gross margins for the year were 26.6% and 130 basis points better than 2023. Our pretax margin for the full year improved to 16.3% compared to 15.1% a year ago, thus resulting in record pretax income of $734 million, 21% better than 2023 and a return on equity of 21%.

全年毛利率為 26.6%，比 2023 年高出 130 個基點。我們全年的稅前利潤率從一年前的 15.1% 提高到 16.3%，從而實現創紀錄的 7.34 億美元的稅前收入，比 2023 年高出 21%，股本回報率為 21%。

For the full year, we sold 8,584 homes, 8% better than 2023. As Phil will review in more detail, our sales decelerated during the fourth quarter. Though some of the drop-off is attributable to seasonal factors, demand became choppier and more challenging in a number of our markets during the fourth quarter. And with rates rising, the cost of rate buydowns became more expensive.

全年我們售出 8,584 套房屋，比 2023 年增加 8%。正如菲爾將更詳細地回顧的那樣，我們的銷售在第四季度有所放緩。儘管部分下降可歸因於季節性因素，但第四季度我們多個市場的需求變得更加波動且更具挑戰性。隨著利率上升，利率回購的成本也變得更昂貴。

The impact of this cost is reflected in our fourth quarter gross margin of 24.6%, down 50 basis points from a year ago and sequentially down approximately 250 basis points from the third quarter. Nearly 50% of our buyers are now using the rate buy-down. As we begin 2025 and approach the start of the selling season, demand remains somewhat of a challenge. Accordingly, we will continue using rate buydowns to drive traffic and incent sales.

此成本的影響反映在我們第四季的毛利率為 24.6%，較去年同期下降 50 個基點，較第三季下降約 250 個基點。我們近 50% 的買家現在正在使用利率買斷。隨著我們進入 2025 年並即將迎來銷售旺季，需求仍面臨一定的挑戰。因此，我們將繼續使用價格降低來推動流量和刺激銷售。

It's important to note that the quality of buyers that we're seeing continues to be very strong with average credit scores approaching 750 in average down payments of nearly $90,000 or 18%.

值得注意的是，我們看到的買家品質仍然很高，平均信用評分接近 750，平均首付近 90,000 美元或 18%。

We ended 2024 with 220 communities. Our average community count increased by 7% over 2023. We are currently estimating a 5% average community count growth for 2025.

到 2024 年，我們已擁有 220 個社區。2023 年，我們的平均社區數量增加了 7%。我們目前估計 2025 年社區數量平均成長率為 5%。

Now I will provide some additional comments on our markets. Our division income contributions in 2024 were led by Dallas, Columbus, Tampa, Orlando, Chicago, and Raleigh. Our new contracts for the fourth quarter in our Southern region, which consists of 11 of our 17 markets, increased 8% and 1% in our northern region which consists of the 6 of the remaining 17 markets.

現在我將對我們的市場提供一些額外的評論。2024 年，我們部門的收入貢獻主要來自達拉斯、哥倫布、坦帕、奧蘭多、芝加哥和羅利。我們在第四季度在南方地區（占我們 17 個市場中的 11 個）的新合約成長了 8%，在北方地區（佔剩餘 17 個市場中的 6 個）的新合約成長了 1%。

For the year, new contracts increased 4% in our Southern region and 12% in our Northern region. Our deliveries increased 14% and over last year's fourth quarter in the Southern region, representing 56% of total deliveries. Northern region contributed an increase of 25% over last year's fourth quarter deliveries. For the year, homes delivered increased 5% in the Southern region and increased 22% in the northern region.

今年，我們南部地區的新合約增加了 4%，北部地區的新合約增加了 12%。與去年第四季相比，我們在南部地區的交付量增加了 14%，佔總交付量的 56%。北方地區的交付量比去年第四季成長了25%。今年，南部地區交付的房屋數量增加了 5%，北部地區交付的房屋數量增加了 22%。

Our owned and controlled lot position in the Southern region increased by 16% compared to a year ago and increased by 12% in the Northern region compared to 2023. We have an excellent land position. Company-wide, we own approximately 23,800 lots, which is just under a three-year supply. Of this total, 27% of our owned lots are in the Northern region with the balance or 73% located in the Southern region.

我們在南部地區擁有和控制的地塊數量與一年前相比增加了 16%，在北部地區與 2023 年相比增加了 12%。我們擁有優越的土地位置。我們全公司約有 23,800 個地塊，差不多夠三年的供應量。其中，我們擁有的土地有 27% 位於北部地區，其餘 73% 位於南部地區。

On top of the owned lots, we control via option contracts and additional 28,400 lots. So in total, we own and control over 52,000 single-family lots, up 14% from a year ago, and this equates to about a 5.5-year supply.

除了自有手數外，我們還透過選擇權合約和另外 28,400 手進行控制。因此，總體而言，我們擁有並控制超過 52,000 個單戶住宅地塊，比一年前增長了 14％，這相當於約 5.5 年的供應量。

Importantly, about 54% of our lots our controlled pursuant to option contracts, which gives us significant flexibility to react to changes in demand or individual market conditions. With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the year with an all-time record $2.9 billion of equity, which equates to a book value per share of $109.

重要的是，我們的約 54% 的批次是根據選擇權合約進行控制的，這使我們能夠靈活地應對需求或個別市場條件的變化。就我們的資產負債表而言，今年年底我們的股權達到了歷史最高的 29 億美元，相當於每股帳面價值 109 美元。

We also ended the year with zero borrowings under our $650 million unsecured revolving credit facility and over $800 million of cash. This resulted in a debt-to-capital ratio of 19% and down from 22% a year ago and a net debt-to-capital ratio of negative 5%.

截至年底，我們的 6.5 億美元無擔保循環信貸額度下的借款為零，且現金超過 8 億美元。這導致債務資本比率從一年前的22%下降至19%，淨債務資本比率為負5%。

As I conclude, let me just state that we're in the best financial condition in our company's history. We plan to continue addressing homebuyer affordability and demand through interest rate buydowns as we did throughout the latter half of 2024. We will likely experience some compression in our gross margins in 2025 when compared to annual gross margins in 2024.

最後，我只想說，我們公司目前的財務狀況是公司歷史上最好的。我們計劃繼續透過降低利率來解決購屋者的負擔能力和需求問題，就像我們在 2024 年下半年所做的那樣。與 2024 年的年毛利率相比，2025 年我們的毛利率可能會有所壓縮。

Despite the challenging and somewhat choppy market conditions, we believe that the homebuilding industry will continue to benefit over the long term from a continued undersupply of homes, positive consumer demographics and growing household formations. We feel very good about our business and are well positioned as we begin 2025.

儘管市場環境充滿挑戰且不穩定，但我們相信，由於住房供應持續不足、消費者人口結構向好以及家庭組建數量不斷增加，住宅建築業將從長期繼續受益。我們對我們的業務感到非常滿意，並且在 2025 年伊始我們就已做好了準備。

Now Phil will provide more specifics on our financial results.

現在菲爾將提供有關我們財務業績的更多具體資訊。

Thanks, Bob. Our new contracts were up 22% in October, up 24% in November, and down 9% in December or 11% improvement in the quarter compared to last year. Our sales pace was 2.7% in the fourth quarter compared to 2.5% last year and our cancellation rate for the fourth quarter was 14%.

謝謝，鮑伯。我們的新合約 10 月成長了 22%，11 月成長了 24%，12 月下降了 9%，與去年同期相比，本季改善了 11%。我們第四季的銷售速度為 2.7%，去年同期為 2.5%，第四季的取消率為 14%。

As to our buyer profile, 50% of our fourth quarter sales were the first-time buyers compared to 53% a year ago. In addition, 68% of our fourth quarter sales were inventory homes compared to 62% in last year's fourth quarter.

就我們的買家情況而言，第四季銷售額中有 50% 是首次購屋者，而一年前這一比例為 53%。此外，我們第四季的銷售額中有 68% 是庫存房，而去年第四季這一比例為 62%。

Our community count was 220 at the end of the year compared to 213 at the end of 2023. During the quarter, we opened 15 new communities while closing 12. For the year, we opened 72 new communities. We currently estimate that our average 2025 community count will be about 5% higher than 2024.

今年年底，我們的社區數量為 220 個，而 2023 年底則為 213 個。本季度，我們開設了 15 個新社區，同時關閉了 12 個。今年，我們開設了72個新社區。我們目前估計，2025 年的平均社區數量將比 2024 年高出約 5%。

We delivered 2,402 homes in the fourth quarter delivering 76% of our backlog compared to 59% a year ago. And about 30% of our fourth-quarter deliveries came from inventory homes that were sold and delivered in the quarter.

我們在第四季交付了 2,402 套房屋，佔積壓訂單的 76%，而去年同期為 59%。我們第四季交付的房屋中約有 30% 來自本季售出並交付的庫存房屋。

At year-end, we had 4,700 homes in the field versus 4,500 homes in the field a year ago. And revenue increased 24% in the fourth quarter to $1.2 billion. Our average closing price for the fourth quarter was $490,000, a 4% increase when compared to last year's $4.71.

截至年底，我們在職住房數量為 4,700 所，而一年前為 4,500 所。第四季營收成長24%，達到12億美元。我們第四季的平均收盤價為 49 萬美元，比去年的 4.71 美元上漲了 4%。

Our gross margin was 24.6% for the quarter, down 50 basis points year over year and down 250 basis points from our third quarter. This decrease is primarily due to mortgage interest rate buydown incentives. Our SG&A expenses increased by 16% in the fourth quarter due primarily to higher incentive compensation, due to our record results and also due to higher community count.

本季我們的毛利率為 24.6%，年減 50 個基點，較上季下降 250 個基點。下降的主要原因是抵押貸款利率降低激勵措施。我們的銷售、一般及行政開支在第四季度增加了 16%，這主要歸因於更高的激勵性薪酬、創紀錄的業績以及社區數量的增加。

As a percent of revenue, our SG&A expenses for the quarter declined 80 basis points to 11.0% when compared to last year's fourth quarter. Our pretax income percent for the quarter was 14.2%, the same as last year. And for the full year, our pretax income percentage was 16.3% versus 15.1% last year. Our return on equity was 21%. During the fourth quarter, we generated $183 million of EBITDA. And for the full year, we generated $767 million of EBITDA.

作為收入的百分比，與去年第四季相比，本季我們的銷售、一般及行政費用下降了 80 個基點，至 11.0%。我們本季的稅前收入百分比為 14.2%，與去年相同。就全年而言，我們的稅前收入百分比為 16.3%，而去年為 15.1%。我們的股本回報率為21%。第四季度，我們的 EBITDA 為 1.83 億美元。全年我們的 EBITDA 為 7.67 億美元。

Our effective tax rate was 22% in the fourth quarter, compared to 24% in last year's fourth quarter, and our annual effective rate for 2024 was 23%, and we expect 2025's effective tax rate to be around 23%. Our earnings per diluted share for the quarter increased 29% to $4.71 per share from $3.66 per share in last year's fourth quarter and increased 22% for the year to $19.71 per share from $16.21 per share last year.

我們第四季的有效稅率為 22%，去年第四季為 24%，我們 2024 年的年度有效稅率為 23%，我們預計 2025 年的有效稅率將在 23% 左右。本季我們的每股攤薄收益從去年第四季的每股 3.66 美元成長 29% 至每股 4.71 美元，全年每股收益從去年的每股 16.21 美元成長 22% 至每股 19.71 美元。

During the fourth quarter, we spent $50 million repurchasing our shares and for the year, spent $175 million. We currently have $107 million available under our repurchase authorization. And in the last three years, we have repurchased 12% of our outstanding shares.

第四季度，我們花了 5,000 萬美元回購股票，全年花了 1.75 億美元。我們的回購授權目前有 1.07 億美元可用。在過去三年中，我們回購了 12% 的流通股。

Now Derek Klutch will address our mortgage company results.

現在，德里克·克魯奇 (Derek Klutch) 將介紹我們的抵押貸款公司的業績。

Thanks, Phil. In the fourth quarter, our mortgage and title operations achieved pretax income of $10 million, up $5.4 million from 2023, with revenues of $28.5 million, up 45% over last year. This was primarily the result of increased pricing margins, a higher average loan amount and more loans closed. For the year, pretax income was $49.7 million with revenue of $116.2 million. Loan-to-value on our first mortgages for the quarter was 82% in 2024, the same as 2023's fourth quarter.

謝謝，菲爾。第四季度，我們的抵押貸款和產權業務實現稅前收入 1,000 萬美元，較 2023 年增加 540 萬美元，營收為 2,850 萬美元，較去年增長 45%。這主要是由於定價利潤率增加、平均貸款額增加以及貸款結清數增加所致。全年稅前收入為 4,970 萬美元，營收為 1.162 億美元。2024 年季度我們的首筆抵押貸款的貸款價值比為 82%，與 2023 年第四季相同。

We continue to see an increase in the use of government financing as 59% of the loans closed in the fourth quarter were conventional and 41% were FHA or VA compared to 66% and 34%, respectively, for 2023's same period.

我們繼續看到政府融資的使用增加，因為第四季度結清的貸款中有 59% 為傳統貸款，41% 為 FHA 或 VA，而 2023 年同期分別為 66% 和 34%。

Even with the increase in government financing, our borrower profile remains solid, with an average down payment of almost 18% and an average borrower credit score on mortgages originated by M/I Financial of 749 compared to 747 last year.

即使政府融資增加，我們的借款人狀況依然穩健，平均首付接近 18%，M/I Financial 發放的抵押貸款借款人平均信用評分為 749，而去年為 747。

Our average mortgage amount increased to $409,000 in 20,244th quarter compared to $383,000 in 2023. Loans originated in the quarter increased 34% and from $1,387 to $1,862 and the volume of loans sold increased by 24%. Our mortgage operation captured 91% of our business in the fourth quarter an increase from 88% in 2023's fourth quarter.

我們的平均抵押貸款金額從 2023 年的 383,000 美元增加到 20,244 季度的 409,000 美元。本季發放的貸款增加了 34%，從 1,387 美元增加到 1,862 美元，貸款銷售量增加了 24%。我們的抵押貸款業務在第四季度占我們業務的 91%，高於 2023 年第四季的 88%。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Phil.

現在我將把電話轉回給菲爾。

Thanks, Derek. As far as the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with a cash balance of $822 million and no borrowings under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Our credit facility matures in late 2026 and our public debt with interest rates below 5% matures in 2028 and 2030. Total homebuilding inventory at year-end was $3.1 billion, up 11% from the prior year and during 2024, we spent $473 million on land purchases and $646 million on land development for a total land spend of $1.1 billion. This was up from $850 million last year.

謝謝，德里克。就資產負債表而言，我們第四季末的現金餘額為 8.22 億美元，且無擔保循環信貸額度下沒有借款。我們的信貸額度將於 2026 年底到期，利率低於 5% 的公共債務將於 2028 年和 2030 年到期。年底的房屋建築總庫存為 31 億美元，比上年增長 11%，2024 年，我們在土地購買上花費了 4.73 億美元，在土地開發上花費了 6.46 億美元，總土地支出為 11 億美元。這一數字比去年的 8.5 億美元有所增加。

And at December 31, '24, we had $754 million of raw land and land under development and $886 million of finished unsold lots. We own 9,300 unsold finished lots. In 2024, we purchased 9,000 lots, of which 75% were raw compared to purchasing 7,900 lots last year. We have a strong land position at year-end, controlling 52,000 lots. We own 24,000 lots about a three-year supply and of the lots controlled 46% are owned.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有價值 7.54 億美元的原始土地和在開發土地，以及價值 8.86 億美元的已完工未售出地塊。我們擁有 9,300 塊未售出的成品地塊。2024年，我們採購了9,000手，其中75%是原礦，而去年我們購買了7,900手。截至年底，我們的土地儲備量達到 52,000 塊。我們擁有約可供應三年的 24,000 個地塊，其中 46% 為自有地塊。

At the end of the year, we had 706 completed inventory homes, about 3 per community, and 2,500 total inventory homes. And of the total inventory, 1,034 are in the Northern region and 1,468 are in the Southern region.

截至年底，我們已建成的庫存房屋有 706 套，大約每個社區有 3 套，總共有 2,500 套庫存房屋。總庫存中，北部地區有 1,034 間，南部地區有 1,468 間。

Last year end, we had 592 completed inventory homes and 2023 total inventory homes. This completes our presentation. We'll now open the call for any questions or comments. Thank you.

去年年底，我們已完工的庫存房屋有 592 套，總庫存房屋數量為 2023 套。我們的演示到此結束。我們現在開始接受任何問題或意見。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Alan Ratner, Zelman and Associate.

（操作員指示）艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner)、澤爾曼 (Zelman) 和同事。

Well, I appreciate the commentary and certainly the choppiness in the quarter, I think, is consistent with what we've heard from others. My first question, I'd love to drill in specifically on Texas and Florida. I think those are probably the areas that are most in focus and under some concern among investors, it's about, I think, 40% or so of your business.

嗯，我很欣賞您的評論，而且我認為本季的波動與我們從其他人那裡聽到的一致。我的第一個問題是，我想特別深入探討德州和佛羅裡達州。我認為這些可能是投資者最關注並且擔心的領域，我認為它們約佔你們業務的 40% 左右。

Can you talk a little bit about the trends you're seeing there just across the board? I mean, incentives, inventory levels and just kind of how you're approaching that market given what seems to be a softening supply-demand backdrop.

您能否談談您所看到的整體趨勢？我的意思是，激勵措施、庫存水平，以及在供需背景趨於疲軟的情況下你如何進入這個市場。

Yes. Great question. We feel better about Texas than we do Florida. We feel good about both. I will say that Tampa, in particular, appears to be a little bit more challenged than Orlando, Sarasota, and of course, we're relatively new in Fort Myers Staples.

是的。好問題。我們對德克薩斯州的感覺比佛羅裡達州更好。我們對兩者都感到滿意。我想說的是，坦帕似乎比奧蘭多、薩拉索塔面臨的挑戰更大一些，當然，我們在邁爾斯堡斯台普斯相對較新。

So I don't our business levels there are not significant enough to draw any real conclusions. But clearly, the demand situation for the last probably six months has been more challenging in Tampa than the other Florida markets.

因此我認為我們的業務水平還不足以得出任何真正的結論。但顯然，過去六個月坦帕的需求情況比佛羅裡達其他市場更具挑戰性。

Our Dallas operation continues to be very strong, and Houston is very strong as well. maybe a slight softening of demand, but nothing that we can't comfortably manage. I think Austin is getting better. Austin was clearly the most challenged market over the last couple of years. After it came off, it's sort of runaway highs.

我們在達拉斯的業務持續保持強勁，休士頓的業務也同樣強勁。需求可能會略微減弱，但這並非我們無法輕鬆應對的。我認為奧斯汀正在變得更好。奧斯汀顯然是過去幾年面臨最大挑戰的市場。它起飛之後，就有點像是失控的高潮。

And I'm talking more about the macro market, but it was the same for us. And San Antonio, I'd say, is steady, not on fire, but steady. We're expecting a good year in Texas, and we're expecting a good year in most of Florida, Tampa is the one that we're watching the most closely.

我比較談的是宏觀市場，但對我們來說也是一樣的。而我想說，聖安東尼奧很穩定，不是火熱，而是穩定。我們預計德州今年會是個好年頭，佛羅裡達州大部分地區今年也會是個好年頭，而坦帕是我們最密切關注的地區。

Clearly, we are using rate buy downs throughout the eight markets we have. It is, as you say, a big part of our business. We're confident that we have the right strategy. We're not doing anything a whole lot more now than we've been doing the last number of months.

顯然，我們在八個市場中都採用了利率買入策略。正如您所說，這是我們業務的重要組成部分。我們確信我們的策略是正確的。我們現在所做的並不比過去幾個月多。

There may be a few subdivisions where we're putting a little more on the gas than in others. But in general, we think it's very manageable. I don't think it's serious. And it's not inventory levels are up, but I don't think it's a situation to cause great concern.

也許在有些分區我們投入的天然氣比其他分區多一些。但總體而言，我們認為這是非常容易實現的。我認為這並不嚴重。雖然庫存水準沒有上升，但我不認為這種情況值得引起極大擔憂。

Great. And I appreciate the around the horn there and the commentary. It's helpful. Two additional questions, if I could squeeze them in. First of all, you guys, along with others, have pivoted towards more of a spec model in recent years.

偉大的。我很欣賞那裡的號角聲和評論。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我還有兩個問題要問。首先，近年來，你們和其他人一樣，已經轉向了更規範的模型。

Spec count, if I got those numbers correctly, it looks like your specs are up about 20% year-over-year, completed up 10% or 15%. Just given the choppiness in demand, are you altering that strategy? Have you kind of adjusted your spec start pace at all? Or do you still feel like the current trajectory you're on makes sense given the business?

規格計數，如果我正確獲得了這些數字，看起來您的規格同比增長了約 20％，完成了 10％ 或 15％ 的增長。考慮到需求的波動，您會改變這個策略嗎？您是否調整過您的規格起步速度？或者您仍然覺得，對於業務而言，您目前的發展軌跡是合理的？

We think it makes sense. Our goal this year is to maintain the pace that we've had across our communities, and we're going to grow community count this year. We have slightly with each passing quarter over the last couple of years, increased our spec level, increased our spec strategy. And I think right now, with probably a few minor variations. It's about where it needs to be.

我們認為這是有道理的。我們今年的目標是保持我們整個社區的發展步伐，並且今年我們將增加社區數量。在過去幾年裡，我們每季都會略微提高我們的規格水平，增強我們的規格策略。我認為現在可能只會有一些細微的變化。這取決於它需要​​去哪裡。

As an example, in Raleigh, we are virtually 100% spec. I think that's the only market where we're that high. But otherwise, it's pretty consistent across the other 17 markets. And it's a very important part of our business. As Phil outlined, it's close to two-thirds of our business right now and it will likely remain. So it may move up a little, it may move down a little, but that's about where we think it needs to be at this point.

例如，在羅利，我們幾乎 100% 符合規格。我認為這是我們唯一表現如此出色的市場。但除此之外，其他 17 個市場的情況相當一致。這是我們業務中非常重要的一部分。正如菲爾所概述的，它目前占我們業務的三分之二，並且很可能會繼續保持這一水平。因此它可能會稍微上升，也可能會稍微下降，但我們認為這大概就是它目前需要達到的水平。

The to-be-builts are a big part of our business, too. And I didn't mention this in my comments, but our Smart Series, which for us is our most affordable product line, primarily catering to first-time buyers. Some of the town homes, most are single-family detached. That's about 50% to 55% of our business. It is settled in there and remained at about that level. But the other way to look at that is about 40% to 45% of our business is to-be-builts. A meaningful portion of that is move up product.

待建專案也是我們業務的重要組成部分。我在我的評論中沒有提到這一點，但我們的智慧系列對我們來說是我們最實惠的產品線，主要迎合首次購買者。有些聯排別墅，大多數都是獨棟住宅。這約占我們業務的50%至55%。它在那裡定居並保持在那裡的水平。但從另一個角度來看，我們的業務中約有 40% 到 45% 是待建專案。其中很有意義的部分是提升產品。

Phil, did you want to add something?

菲爾，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

Yes. One thing Alan, I know you know this. As far as the cost effectiveness of mortgage rate buydowns lot easier to do those type of things within a 30, 45, 60-day window than it is to try to get longer than that. So again, putting a few more specs out there that way you can offer that more deep discount type financing. But again, you got to close than 30 or 45 days.

是的。有一件事艾倫，我知道你知道這一點。就抵押貸款利率降低的成本效益而言，在 30、45、60 天的期限內完成這些事情要比試圖在更長的期限內完成要容易得多。所以，再說一遍，透過提出更多的規格，您可以提供更大折扣的融資。但同樣，你必須在 30 或 45 天內完成。

And I don't think I'm saying anything out of school. But I recently had a conversation with another builder that asked me if we were offering long-term rate locks on to-be-builts. And on the one hand, it's no one's business other than our buyers.

我認為我沒有說任何不合學校規矩的話。但我最近與另一位建築商進行了交談，他詢問我是否為待建建築提供長期利率鎖定。一方面，這不關我們的買家以外的任何人的事。

But on the other hand, all of the mortgage rate buydowns that we have been using to generate traffic have been designed to assist the sale of homes that could close roughly within 60 days. So you need to have homes in the field specs ready to be delivered.

但另一方面，我們用來吸引流量的所有抵押貸款利率降低都是為了協助銷售大約可以在 60 天內完成交易的房屋。因此，您需要準備好符合現場規格的房屋以供交付。

And we are -- we said we opened about 75 new stores last year. We did plan on opening more stores this year. Every subdivision is a little bit different. We are doing a few more attached townhouses. The majority of our specs tends to be on the Smart Series more affordable, and that area kind of drives a few more specs -- so we do see our spec levels going up some. But again, that's something we control very closely, Alan.

我們說，去年我們開了大約 75 家新店。我們確實計劃今年開設更多商店。每個細分都略有不同。我們正在建造更多連棟別墅。我們的大部分規格往往集中在價格更實惠的智慧系列上，而該領域又推動了一些規格的增加 - 因此我們確實看到我們的規格水平有所上升。但是艾倫，這是我們嚴格控制的事情。

Great. I appreciate all of those comments there and everything makes sense. Last one, if I could squeeze in one more. I know you don't give gross margin guidance, but you alluded to margins being under some pressure given the rate buydowns and the incentives you're offering. I was just hoping maybe you can give a little bit of clarity on the margin pullback you saw this quarter, about 250 basis points sequentially.

偉大的。我很感謝那裡的所有評論，一切都很有道理。最後一個，如果我還能再擠一點的話。我知道您沒有提供毛利率指引，但您暗示，考慮到利率下調和您提供的激勵措施，利潤率會面臨一些壓力。我只是希望您能稍微解釋一下本季的利潤率回落情況，環比回落約 250 個基點。

Yeah, I think it's a great question, and it's the big unknown in our industry. what's going to happen to rates. Based on what I know today, or I believe today, and I think this is widely shared by a lot of our competitors, it's critically important to continue using rate buy downs to generate traffic to promote sales until it isn't. And we don't know when the isn't going to come.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題，這也是我們行業的最大未知數。利率將會發生什麼變化。根據我今天所了解的或我今天所相信的，而且我認為我們的許多競爭對手也普遍持有這種觀點，繼續使用價格買斷來產生流量以促進銷售至關重要，直到它不再有效為止。我們不知道它什麼時候才會到來。

Having said all that, the cost does move week-to-week, sometimes day-to-day. And as the 10-year moderate somewhat, the cost come down cost comes down, less impact on margins. In the third quarter, about a third of our sales utilized the rate buydown. It jumped up to 50% in the fourth quarter. My guess is going to sort of stay there.

話雖如此，成本確實每週都在變化，有時甚至每天都在變化。隨著 10 年期債券的利率有所緩和，成本下降，對利潤率的影響也隨之減少。第三季度，我們約有三分之一的銷售額利用了利率買斷。第四季度，這一數字躍升至50%。我的猜測是會維持這種狀態。

I think the fourth quarter is probably reflective if we had to guess. One of the reasons we don't give guidance is we don't know. It's an interesting situation five years ago, if our quarterly margins were 24.6% and the question would have been, do you think they can get much higher? Those are great margins.

我認為，如果我們必須猜測的話，第四季度可能會有所反映。我們不提供指導的原因之一是我們不知道。五年前的情況很有趣，如果我們的季度利潤率為 24.6%，那麼問題就是，你認為利潤率還能更高嗎？這些都是很大的利潤。

But on the other hand, when you're coming off 26%, 27%, and in a number of our divisions, we have margins approaching 30% and those -- I've said during previous calls, either your question or someone else is that these are very high margins, almost unprecedented, probably not long-term sustainable.

但另一方面，當我們的利潤率從26%、27%下降到接近30%時，在我們的一些部門中，我之前在電話會議中已經說過，無論是你的問題還是其他人的問題，這些都是非常高的利潤率，幾乎是史無前例的，可能不是長期可持續的。

But I will also say this a 24% to 25% margin business is an excellent business that can generate very solid returns. And we tend to overreact, both on good news and bad news. I think things are starting to settle in a little bit. We shall see.

但我還要說，利潤率 24% 至 25% 的業務是一項能夠產生非常可觀回報的優秀業務。而我們往往對好消息和壞消息都反應過度。我覺得事情開始有點平息了。我們將會看到。

But we feel really good about our business. I know the demand is a bit choppy. There's still -- there's tremendous uncertainty coming from almost every day, whether it's immigration or tariffs or inflation, our interest rates or you name it, it's the word cloud of the day.

但我們對我們的業務感到非常滿意。我知道需求有點不穩定。幾乎每天都存在著巨大的不確定性，無論是移民問題、關稅問題、通貨膨脹問題、我們的利率問題，或是其他什麼問題，這都是當今的詞雲。

And -- but against that backdrop, I do think that home building and home -- new home building and new home construction has very, very solid foundation of underlying metrics. And while there may be some noise quarter to quarter, we're poised to grow this company in 2025. And in 2026 and 2027, and we believe we can.

但在這種背景下，我確實認為住宅建設和新住宅建設以及新住宅建設具有非常非常堅實的基礎指標。儘管每季可能會出現一些噪音，但我們已準備好在 2025 年實現公司的成長。到 2026 年和 2027 年，我們相信我們可以。

And just one other comment, Alan, on the interest rate buydowns and so forth. I mean, really, every community and every customer is a little different. We try to be very targeted. Some customers, especially on the more affordable product, need help with closing costs to get it in the house.

艾倫，我還有另一條評論，關於利率回購等等。我的意思是，實際上每個社區和每個顧客都有點不同。我們盡力做到有的放矢。有些顧客，尤其是那些購買價格較便宜的產品的顧客，需要幫助支付成交費用才能將產品搬進家中。

So therefore, we have a certain amount priced in for financing and closing costs. And those people may not really be able to qualify or get the cheaper financing. But again, we're able to help them with closing costs and get them in the house.

因此，我們已經將一定金額的融資和成交成本計入了價格。而這些人可能實際上無法獲得資格或獲得更便宜的融資。但我們可以再次幫助他們支付成交費用並讓他們搬進新家。

So we try to be very targeted the mortgage rate buydowns in general, are fairly expensive, again, depends on how many specs you have and those type of things. But we try to be very targeted and just use that where we need to. But of course, it's really hard to predict what we're going to have to do this year.

因此，我們嘗試非常有針對性地降低抵押貸款利率，一般來說，這相當昂貴，同樣，這取決於您有多少規格以及諸如此類的事情。但我們盡量做到有的放矢，只在需要的地方使用。但當然，很難預測今年我們要做什麼。

One last point of optimism, selling season is really just getting started. And some selling seasons are better than others. And last year's was quite good. We're hopeful that this will be as well, but we'll know when we know. We're ready to go, we're ready to react.

最後一個樂觀的跡像是，銷售季節實際上才剛開始。有些銷售季節比其他季節更好。去年的表現相當不錯。我們也希望如此，但只有當我們知道時才會知道。我們已經準備好出發，準備好做出反應。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research Partners.

肯‧澤納（Ken Zener），海港研究夥伴。

Good morning, everybody. if I missed it, what was the number of homes in the field if you have that?

大家早安。如果我錯過了，那麼如果有的話，該領域中有多少所房屋？

I think it was 4,700, Phil, you gave homes in the field?

我認為是 4,700 人，菲爾，你在田野裡提供了住房嗎？

Yeah. It's about 3% up from last year, 4,700 versus 4,500.

是的。與去年相比，這一數字上漲了約 3%，從去年的 4,500 人增加到 4,700 人。

Excellent. Wonder if you might be able to provide a little context around -- I believe you said 31% of closings was intra-quarter order closing -- can you talk to the margin spread you guys are seeing where between the -- those units and the backlog given the propensity of mortgage buydowns to be affecting those units?

出色的。我想知道您是否可以提供一些背景資訊——我記得您說過 31% 的成交是季度內訂單成交——您能否談談您看到的這些單位與積壓訂單之間的利潤率差距，考慮到抵押貸款買斷傾向於影響這些單位？

That's a hard one. Some of our markets, our spec sale margins are either at or equal to our to-be-built margins, which I know sounds a little counterintuitive but that is the case. That has not always been the case. Typically, spec sale margins are 100 to 200 basis points less, at least we've seen over the years than to be built. I'd say that the average is probably somewhere around 100 to 150 basis points less across the whole system on specs.

這是一個難題。在我們的某些市場中，我們的規格銷售利潤率等於或等於我們的待建利潤率，我知道這聽起來有點違反直覺，但事實就是如此。但情況並不總是這樣的。通常情況下，規格銷售利潤率比建築利潤率低 100 到 200 個基點，至少我們多年來看到的是這樣的。我認為整個系統的規格平均值可能要低 100 到 150 個基點左右。

But a number of our markets, including sizable ones, our to-be-built margins and our spec margins are either the same or in some cases, the spec margins are a little higher. But if you put it through the blender and take it out, it's slightly lower, maybe 100 to 150 basis points. And of course, that's reflected in our full year margins because we had a pretty aggressive spec strategy throughout the year.

但在我們的許多市場（包括規模相當大的市場）中，我們的待建利潤率和規格利潤率要么相同，要么在某些情況下，規格利潤率略高一些。但如果你把它放入攪拌機然後取出，它會稍微低一些，大概是 100 到 150 個基點。當然，這反映在我們的全年利潤率上，因為我們全年都採取了相當積極的規格策略。

And frankly, the specs are in terms of strategy, the specs are critically, critically important right now because as I've just mentioned during the last question, Alan Ratner's question, the specs that can close within 60 days, and we need to have a good number of them ready to go in order to take advantage of attractive rate buydowns.

坦白說，規格是從戰略角度考慮的，規格現在至關重要，因為正如我在上一個問題（艾倫·拉特納的問題）中提到的那樣，規格可以在 60 天內完成，我們需要準備好大量的規格，以便利用有吸引力的利率買斷。

Right. And it's -- if you don't mind continuing on this topic a little bit because your Smart Series, which is -- you're kind of -- even though you have an ASP numbers finally bifurcated, between the Smart Series and your other units. Is that a function of you think that the Smart Series being more affordable, attracting more demand so that can actually give you somewhat better net pricing than the higher price point perhaps? Thank you very much.

正確的。而且 — — 如果您不介意繼續討論這個主題的話，因為您的智慧系列 — — 即使您的 ASP 數字最終被分為智慧系列和您的其他單位，您還是可以接受的。您是否認為智慧系列更實惠，吸引了更多需求，因此實際上可以為您提供比更高價格點更好的淨價格？非常感謝。

I don't think so. A lot of it depends -- this is not the answer you're looking for, so I apologize, but I've got to tell you the one.

我不這麼認為。這在很大程度上取決於——這不是您想要的答案，所以我很抱歉，但我必須告訴您答案。

Not at all. Don't worry.

一點也不。不用擔心。

It's community specific. Some of our Smart Series communities have lower-than-average margins. Many of them have right on the button margins and some have premium margins. And a lot of that hunts back to the quality of the community. We have some -- a number of move-up product communities throughout a number of our markets where our margins are very, very strong and then some where they're slightly below.

它是特定於社區的。我們的一些智慧系列社區的利潤率低於平均水平。他們中的許多人都有正確的利潤空間，有些還有溢價利潤。其中很大一部分歸結於社區的品質。我們在多個市場中建立了一些升級產品社區，這些市場的利潤率非常高，而有些市場的利潤率則略低。

It's really hard to draw a conclusion other than strength of a particular community. And look, we feel really -- we don't want to see our margins drop -- we feel really good about our margins when compared to the industry. They've held up high. I'm not going to say we have the highest returns, but we're up there.

除了特定社區的實力之外，很難得出其他結論。而且，我們真的感覺——我們不想看到我們的利潤率下降——與行業相比，我們的利潤率感覺非常好。他們一直保持高昂的鬥志。我不會說我們的報酬率最高，但確實也很高。

We're generally quarter in, quarter out in the upper tier, bringing over 16% to the bottom line this past year, I think, compared very favorably with the public builders. And I think that as we move through this year, we'll continue to perform at a competitively favorable level because I think we've got really good communities.

我們通常每個季度都處於較高水平，去年我們的盈利增長了 16% 以上，我認為，與公共建築商相比，這是非常有利的。我認為，隨著今年的發展，我們將繼續保持有利的競爭水平，因為我認為我們擁有非常好的社區。

And even though we're going to be opening very significant number of new communities this year with high hopes for them to perform well, a good number of our communities that we're operating out of now well over half, we've been running with for at least a year or so, and we have a good feel for how they're going to perform from both a sales and margin standpoint.

儘管我們今年將開設大量新社區，並寄予厚望，希望它們能有良好的表現，但目前我們運營的許多社區中，超過一半已經運營了至少一年左右，我們對它們在銷售和利潤方面的表現有很好的感覺。

One of the things we really like is not only a diversification of geography and markets we really like to have a product and price diversity. And as Bob said, in general, we have 40%, 50% of our business focused on the first-time buyer. And again, the average sale price tends to be more [$400] or whatever, we still like to have those communities well located as best we can.

我們真正喜歡的事情之一不僅是地理和市場的多樣化，我們真正喜歡的是產品和價格的多樣化。正如鮑伯所說，一般來說，我們的 40% 到 50% 的業務集中在首次購屋者身上。而且，儘管平均售價往往會更高（400 美元）或其他價格，但我們仍然希望這些社區的地理位置盡可能優越。

We give people a reason to buy not just price. If you look at the last six quarters, our ASPN backlog has basically gone from [$500 to $550]. So right now, we're kind of seeing our move-up product perform a little better than our entry double product. But again, that changes quarter-to-quarter sometime. We just like having that diversity in our business.

我們給人們購買的理由而不僅僅是價格。如果你回顧過去六個季度，我們的 ASPN 積壓訂單基本上已經從[500 至 550 美元]。所以現在，我們看到我們的升級產品的表現比我們的入門雙重產品要好一點。但同樣，這種情況有時會逐季度改變。我們只是喜歡我們的業務具有這種多樣性。

Some of our -- just to give a little bit more color. Some of our strongest margins in the company are in Dallas. There was a question about Texas, Orlando. There was a question about Florida. Charlotte, Columbus, Chicago. We've had a number of divisions that are running very strong margins even in this climate.

我們的一些——只是為了提供更多一點的色彩。我們公司利潤最豐厚的部分位於達拉斯。有一個問題關於德克薩斯州的奧蘭多。有一個關於佛羅裡達州的問題。夏洛特、哥倫布、芝加哥。即使在這種環境下，我們的多個部門仍保持著非常高的利潤率。

Buck Horne, Raymond James.

巴克霍恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

I wonder if you just go back to the Tampa market in particular. Just curious if you saw in particular, any noticeable demand shifts coming out of the hurricanes that kind of, I guess, transpired there right around that October time frame? Or did the hurricane shift demand and/or -- are you seeing any impact due to just rising insurance costs related to just Florida's cost of just the hardening of the insurance market and kind of how are you helping your buyers deal with that?

我想知道您是否只是回到坦帕市場。我只是好奇，您是否特別注意到，在十月左右發生的颶風是否導致了明顯的需求變化？或者颶風改變了需求和/或——您是否看到由於佛羅裡達州保險市場成本上升而導致的保險成本上升的影響，以及您如何幫助您的買家應對這一問題？

Do you live in Tampa, Buck, I think you might.

巴克，你住在坦帕嗎？

I do. I do live in Tampa. So we know the market well.

我願意。我確實住在坦帕。所以我們非常了解市場。

I suspect you do. You probably should answer your own question. Look, I think started.

我想你會的。你也許應該回答自己的問題。瞧，我認為開始了。

I'd like to hear what you think --

我想聽聽你的想法--

Right. I think things start -- Tampa has always been one of our best performing markets for a long time. We've been a top five builder in Tampa for many, many years. We have a very strong team there, and we have a lot of confidence in that team, excellent land position. I think things started to slow down a little bit before the hurricane. The hurricane didn't help at all. But just channel checks are telling us that we're not alone that, that market has slowed, maybe more so than -- clearly more so than Orlando -- noticeably.

正確的。我認為事情開始了——坦帕長期以來一直是我們表現最好的市場之一。多年來，我們一直是坦帕市排名前五的建築商。我們在那裡有一支非常強大的團隊，我們對那支團隊非常有信心，而且土地位置極佳。我認為颶風來臨之前事情就開始變慢了。颶風沒有起到任何幫助。但光是通路檢查就告訴我們，我們並不是唯一一個市場放緩的市場，或許比奧蘭多市場放緩得更明顯。

Sarasota seems to be a little better. That would suggest -- I mean, I know the hurricane hit different areas a little different as you know very well. But I think there's a softening there. I -- and it's hard to really pinpoint the exact reason. So I wish I could give you a better answer. We're taking a lot of steps now to try to address it. We're doing a little bit more there than we're doing in some of our markets to generate traffic and sales.

薩拉索塔似乎稍微好一點。這表明——我的意思是，我知道颶風襲擊不同地區的情況略有不同，正如你所知。但我認為那裡正在變得軟化。我——很難真正指出確切的原因。所以我希望我能給你一個更好的答案。我們現在正在採取很多措施來解決這個問題。我們在那裡做的比我們在某些​​市場做的要多一些，以吸引流量和銷售。

Yeah. Well, we hope it's temporary. We've noticed certainly that the rental demand in the Tampa market has certainly picked up quite a bit post hurricane. So maybe people are making temporary decisions, and it's just a kind of a temporary phenomenon before they decide to make a home decision.

是的。好吧，我們希望這只是暫時的。我們確實注意到，颶風過後坦帕市場的租賃需求確實大幅回升。所以也許人們正在做出臨時決定，這只是他們決定回家之前的暫時現象。

I think there's a lot of reasons to be bullish on Tampa. We got to get through this period. But to be bullish on Tampa, over the one, two, three, four, five-year period.

我認為有很多理由看好坦帕。我們必須渡過這個時期。但我們對坦帕未來一、二、三、四、五年的發展前景持樂觀態度。

So very bullish on Tampa. And then secondly, I guess I was just wondering if you have any comments or thoughts around just industry-wide labor availability is kind of these new immigration rules and new immigration enforcement gets rolled out. Just any high-level thoughts or how you would brace for any potential labor availability impact?

因此對坦帕非常看好。其次，我想知道您是否對這些新移民規則和新移民執法措施對全行業勞動力供應有什麼評論或想法。您有何高層次的想法或如何應對潛在的勞動力可用性影響？

Right now, we're okay. Right now, I believe our industry is okay. I was at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing meeting yesterday in Washington and surprise, surprise, that was a big topic with both manufacturers, suppliers as well as the builders. And I think everyone is okay. But again, I hate to keep using the word uncertainty.

目前，我們還好。目前，我認為我們的行業還不錯。昨天我參加了在華盛頓舉行的哈佛聯合住房中心會議，令人驚訝的是，這對製造商、供應商和建築商來說都是一個熱門話題。我認為大家都沒事。但我再次不想繼續使用不確定性這個詞。

I think there's uncertainty surrounding that. There's interesting stories of more subcontractors becoming available, particularly on the land development side in certain markets. I think that's more market to market. But -- and we're seeing a little bit of that, too, with more site contractors looking for work. We don't have a labor problem right now. I hope that we're able to continue to say that. I don't -- I just don't -- I think that's another.

我認為這方面存在不確定性。有趣的是，越來越多的分包商湧現，特別是在某些市場的土地開發方面。我認為這更多的是市場對市場的。但是——我們也看到了一些這樣的情況，越來越多的現場承包商正在尋找工作。我們現在沒有勞動力問題。我希望我們能夠繼續這麼說。我不——我只是不——我認為那是另一回事。

Got it. Agreed. And then just real quick, lastly, obviously, you guys are still putting up very strong margins in context of the industry. Returns are very solid. Profitability looks good.

知道了。同意。最後，很明顯，你們在行業背景下仍然保持著非常強勁的利潤率。回報非常可觀。獲利能力看起來不錯。

stock is obviously not reflecting that at these valuation levels. You're trading almost nearly maybe 1.1 times forward book value at these levels. Any thoughts on ability or flexibility to accelerate repurchases or extend the buyback authorization to kind of take advantage of this disconnect?

股票顯然沒有反映這些估價水準。在這些水準上，您的交易幾乎是預期帳面價值的 1.1 倍。對於加速回購或延長回購授權以利用這種脫節的能力或靈活性，您有什麼想法嗎？

We continue looking at that and discussing that with our Board every quarter. As I said before, we have bought back over 10% of the stock in the last couple of years. We did accelerate to $50 million a quarter starting in the second quarter of last year. The balance sheet is in very, very good shape. We did up land purchases a fair amount last year to get us positioned for future growth. We talked about we have 9,000 finished lots on the ground.

我們會繼續關注這個問題，並且每季都會與董事會討論這個問題。正如我之前所說，過去幾年我們已經回購了超過 10% 的股票。從去年第二季開始，我們的收入確實加速到每季 5,000 萬美元。資產負債表狀況非常非常好。我們去年購買了相當數量的土地，為未來的成長做好準備。我們說過，我們目前已經在地面上完成了 9,000 個地塊。

So we're really positioned well to grow if we need to tap on the brakes. Obviously, we can do that. But as far as stock repurchases, that's something we'll try to come up with a consistent program something we felt we needed to do. We've been doing that, but we'll continue to look at what we do there based on the economy and our business, et cetera.

因此，如果我們需要踩剎車的話，我們確實處於有利地位，能夠實現成長。顯然，我們可以做到這一點。但就股票回購而言，我們會嘗試制定一個一致的計劃，這是我們認為需要做的事情。我們一直在這樣做，但我們將繼續根據經濟和業務等情況審視我們在那裡所做的工作。

Yeah. I mean knowing what we know today, it's hard to see a change in our strategy going forward.

是的。我的意思是，根據我們今天所知道的情況，很難看到我們的未來策略改變。

(Operator Instructions) Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

（操作員指示）Jay McCanless，韋德布希。

So I wanted to drill down a little more on gross margin, if I could. And thank you for the color, that 25% is probably a little softer than 24%. But I guess if conditions stay the way they are right now, when might we see an inflection in the gross margin? Or should we expect, at least for the next couple of quarters that it might go down sequentially from the levels you guys saw in the fourth quarter?

因此，如果可以的話，我想更深入地了解毛利率。感謝您提供的顏色，25% 可能比 24% 稍微柔和一些。但我想，如果情況維持目前的狀態，什麼時候我們才能看到毛利率的轉捩點？或者我們應該預期，至少在接下來的幾個季度裡，它可能會從第四季的水平開始連續下降？

It's a hard question to answer. I think the fourth quarter is sort of reflective of where things are. Again, depending upon rate movement, and cost of buydowns, that's all going to have an impact because so much of the action occurs within the quarter. And it became, as I said, I think we first launched the buy downs either in July or August. I can't remember the exact time.

這是一個很難回答的問題。我認為第四季可以反映出現狀。再次，這取決於利率變動和買斷成本，這些都會產生影響，因為許多行動都發生在本季內。正如我所說，我認為我們是在 7 月或 8 月首次啟動買斷的。我記不清具體時間了。

It was the beginning to the middle of the third quarter. And the cost -- while the costs moved a bit, rates went a little down and they jumped back up again, the trend lines were all rising rates rather than declining though throughout the back half of the year, as you know, it just became more expensive. And not to be snarky, but not selling is not an option.

這是第三節開始到中段的時候。至於成本——雖然成本略有變動，但利率略有下降，然後又回升，趨勢線都是上升的，而不是下降的，儘管在整個下半年，如你所知，它變得更加昂貴了。並不是諷刺，但不賣不是一個選擇。

So we're going to do what we need to do. And I think things seem to be at least this week, leveling off, maybe even coming down a little bit in terms of cost. So next week, who knows? There's certainly a lot of action in Washington right now, and all of that is having an impact on the bond market. Hopefully, inflation is under control. It appears to be.

所以我們會做我們需要做的事情。我認為至少本週情況似乎趨於平穩，成本甚至可能略有下降。那麼下周呢，誰知道呢？華盛頓現在確實有很多行動，所有這些都對債券市場產生了影響。希望通貨膨脹能夠得到控制。看起來是的。

So I think what we saw in the fourth quarter is likely reflective of what we'll see on a go-forward basis could be a little better, maybe a little worse, although I don't think so. So we'll just have to see. But we've settled in on a good pace per community, and our goal is to maintain that pace. And so I think the fourth quarter is a good barometer. I wish I knew with -- Jay, I wish I knew with precision, but I don't think anybody does.

因此，我認為我們在第四季度看到的情況可能反映了我們未來將看到的情況，可能會好一點，也可能會差一點，儘管我不這麼認為。所以我們只能拭目以待。但我們已經確定了每個社區的良好步伐，我們的目標是保持這一步伐。因此我認為第四季是一個很好的晴雨表。我希望我知道——傑伊，我希望我知道準確，但我認為沒有人知道。

No, that's a great answer. Very helpful. And I just wanted to talk for a minute about the -- you had really strong 18% order growth in the South. But only 1% in the north. Maybe could you talk about that? Was it timing issues? We've heard some people talk about pretty heavy rainfall colder weather up north. Anything we should know there to explain that discrepancy between the two segments?

不，這是一個很好的答案。非常有幫助。我只想花一點時間談一下——你們在南方的訂單成長非常強勁，達到了 18%。但北部只有1％。也許你可以談論一下這個嗎？是時間問題嗎？我們聽到一些人談論北方降雨量較大且天氣寒冷。我們應該知道什麼來解釋這兩個部分之間的差異？

Well, Jay, it always depends on what comparable number you're looking at as far as how the fourth quarter was last year. If you look at last year, we only sold 1,600 houses. So we had a pretty low comparable going in as far as looking at the southern region being up 18%, again, with the fourth quarter sales last year not being so good, people talk about Florida being difficult.

嗯，傑伊，這總是取決於你所關注的與去年第四季相比的可比較數字。如果你看看去年，我們只賣了 1,600 棟房子。因此，就南部地區的銷售額成長 18% 而言，我們的可比性相當低，而且由於去年第四季的銷售情況不太好，人們都說佛羅裡達州的銷售情況很困難。

But from a sales standpoint, our fourth quarter this year compared pretty favorably in Florida the last year certain markets in Texas also performed well -- it was really just more of a weak fourth quarter last year than anything, Jay.

但從銷售角度來看，我們今年第四季在佛羅裡達州的表現相當不錯，而去年德州的某些市場也表現良好——傑伊，去年第四季的表現確實比較疲軟。

Got it. And then the last question I had, and Phil, correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I think you said -- actually, I got two more questions. I think you said 30% sold and closed during the fourth quarter on closings. I guess -- what do you guys think the upper end of that number could be? Could you potentially sell and close 40%? I mean, I'm trying to think of from a productive capacity standpoint, can you really pull off that many homes? Or what is a manageable range for sold and closed in a given quarter for M/I?

知道了。然後是我的最後一個問題，菲爾，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我想你說過——實際上，我還有兩個問題。我記得您說過，第四季有 30% 的房屋已經售出並成交。我想──你們認為這個數字的上限是多少？您有可能出售並成交 40% 嗎？我的意思是，我試著從生產能力的角度來思考，你真的能蓋那麼多房子嗎？或者，對於 M/I 來說，在特定季度內銷售和結算的可管理範圍是多少？

Jay, of course, the theoretical answer is that we want to close as many houses as we can. Good completed houses at a good margin. I mean, could that number be a 40% type number? The answer is yes. right now today, having about 2500 houses in the field as far as specs. And again, we track what stage those specs are at we talked about how many of them were finished, whatever, 600 or 700.

傑伊，當然，理論上的答案是我們想關閉盡可能多的房屋。已完工的優質房屋，利潤豐厚。我的意思是，這個數字可能是 40% 類型的數字嗎？答案是肯定的。目前，就規格而言，該領域約有 2500 棟房屋。再次，我們追蹤這些規格處於哪個階段，我們討論了其中有多少已經完成，不管是 600 還是 700。

But yes, it could get up to 40% or so. We have the financial wherewithal to obviously put specs out there. telling specs is different than to be built. We're trying very much to have the best margins we can on specs and not just throw them out there, lower margins. But yes, could it get higher than 30% to 40% or so Yes.

但是是的，它可能達到 40% 左右。我們顯然有足夠的財力來制定這些規格。講述規格與建構規格不同。我們正在盡力在規格上獲得盡可能高的利潤，而不是簡單地降低利潤。但是的，它能否高於 30% 到 40% 左右？

Also from a mortgage rate cost by down, as we talked before and you know, it's a lot more cost effective when you're trying to buy that rate down on somebody's closing in 45 days.

另外，正如我們之前談到的，從抵押貸款利率成本的下降來看，當您試圖在 45 天內降低某人的交易利率時，這會更具成本效益。

And then I guess the other question I had, it sounds like from a labor perspective, from a materials perspective, it seems like things are setting up well for the year. I guess could you talk about what you're seeing from land cost inflation? And also maybe what you're seeing from some competitors if they're still being as aggressive in the land market as they were maybe a quarter or two quarters ago?

然後我想我還有另一個問題，從勞動角度、從材料角度來看，今年的情況似乎進展順利。我想您可以談談您對土地成本通膨的看法嗎？另外，您是否看到一些競爭對手在土地市場上仍然像一個季度或兩個季度前一樣積極進取？

First of all, I think on sticks and bricks, things are good, stable. In some cases, we may pick up a little Suffice it to say, we're very focused on that, just like we're very focused on cycle time. 2024, we improved our cycle time by 11 days. I don't think we'll improve it by 11 days this year, but we might prove it by several. We haven't talked about that during this call.

首先，我認為就木棍和磚塊而言，情況是好的、穩定的。在某些情況下，我們可能會發現一些問題，可以說，我們非常關注這一點，就像我們非常關注週期時間一樣。 2024年，我們將週期時間縮短了11天。我認為今年我們不會將這一數字提高 11 天，但我們可能會透過幾天來證明這一點。我們在這次通話中沒有談論過這個問題。

But we don't ignore those things. And we're really focused on cost of materials and sticks and bricks trying to do everything we can to offset the margin pressures that mortgage rate buydowns have brought about. That's one thing.

但我們不會忽視這些事情。我們真正關注的是材料、木棍和磚塊的成本，盡一切努力抵消抵押貸款利率下降帶來的利潤壓力。這是一回事。

On the land side, I believe that land development costs, site work has stabilized for now. On land acquisition, I think it's still pretty competitive. It's not crazy, but I think it's more competitive than not.

在土地方面，我認為土地開發成本、現場工作目前已經穩定下來。在土地收購方面，我認為競爭還是相當激烈的。這並不瘋狂，但我認為競爭會更加激烈。

Look, we're trying to buy prime locations. No. Our strategy is not to go outside the core and buy pieces that maybe only one or two people want. That's not how we operate we try to stay within where we think the most action is. We've always been that way, and it's worked, and we're going to continue to do that.

你看，我們正在嘗試購買黃金地段。不。我們的策略是不去核心產品之外購買可能只有一兩個人想要的產品。這不是我們的運作方式，我們試圖停留在我們認為行動最多的地方。我們一直都是這樣做的，而且這種方法很有效，我們會繼續這樣做。

And I think on some of those pieces, there can be a lot of competition. We don't get every piece we seek to get, and we lose our fair share, but we get our fair share. So I think there I know you want a more specific answer. I think it's more competitive than not for the prime locations, which is what our business is primarily focused on.

我認為在其中一些領域可能會存在激烈的競爭。我們並沒有得到我們想要的每一份，我們失去了我們應得的份額，但我們得到了我們應得的份額。所以我想我知道你想要一個更具體的答案。我認為黃金地段的競爭比沒有黃金地段的競爭更激烈，而黃金地段正是我們的業務主要關注的領域。

Jay, we obviously track that very careful. We develop about 80% of our own stuff. Bob always talks about, we really try to focus on premier locations. We want to be in the better school districts, near the better shop, do the better transportation. We think in great times, those communities so great, but in tough times, they still sell some.

傑伊，我們顯然非常仔細地追蹤這一點。大約 80% 的產品是我們自己開發的。鮑伯總是說，我們確實努力專注於最佳地點。我們希望位於更好的學區，靠近更好的商店，擁有更好的交通。我們認為，在好時期，這些社區非常偉大，但在困難時期，他們仍然會出售一些東西。

If you look at the average lot cost in the last year as far as raw land developed costs, depending on the market, in general, the finished lot cost has gone up 10% to 15%, our finished lot cost.

如果您查看去年原始土地開發成本的平均地塊成本，根據市場情況，一般而言，成品地塊成本上漲了 10％ 至 15％，即我們的成品地塊成本。

Now when you look at our average sale price in backlog, as I talked a little bit ago, I feel like in the last eight quarters, our average sale price in backlog has gone from [$500 to $550]. You always market price -- we try to be very focused on pricing. Don't get too far out, locking prices in and those type of things. But I definitely agree. I mean, premier, well-located land has continued to go up.

現在，當你看到我們積壓訂單的平均售價時，正如我剛才所說，我覺得在過去的八個季度裡，我們積壓訂單的平均售價已經從[500 至 550 美元]。您總是市場價格——我們盡量關注定價。不要走得太遠，鎖定價格和諸如此類的事情。但我絕對同意。我的意思是，地理位置優越的優質土地的價格持續上漲。

We need to make sure we get paid for that. We focus every day, not only on margin, but on sales pace to make sure we're getting stuff through the pipe, but also getting paid for what we're doing and the risk we're taking.

我們需要確保能得到報酬。我們每天的關注點不僅在於利潤，還在於銷售速度，以確保我們的產品能夠順利銷售出去，同時也能因我們所做的事情和所承擔的風險而獲得報酬。

So again, we try to manage that best we can. We're hoping this year to get a little break on sticks and bricks. We are focused very hard on that, as Bob said, to try to offset some of these other margin pressures, but there's definitely challenges out there.

因此，我們再次盡力做到最好。我們希望今年在木棍和磚塊方面能有所突破。正如鮑伯所說，我們非常重視這一點，試圖抵消一些其他利潤壓力，但肯定存在挑戰。

That's great -- and just since you opened the door on pace, I guess, are you guys expecting to run at roughly same level of monthly absorption in '25 that we saw in '24?

這很好——既然你們已經打開了步伐，我想，你們是否預計 25 年的月吸收量將與 24 年大致相同？

We'd like to have a little better pace. We're sure worked on that. But again, that becomes kind of a factor of what do you want to do pricewise and what are you going to do margin wise, we are focused on trying to improve pace a little bit also.

我們希望節奏能稍微快一點。我們確實正在努力做到這一點。但是，這又變成了一個因素，即你想在價格方面做什麼以及你想在利潤方面做什麼，我們也專注於嘗試稍微提高速度。

But also, hopefully maintain where we are. With growing community count. Our goal is to grow the company. We've got base growth goals, and we've also have stretched growth goals and a lot of those are dependent upon worst case maintaining current pace.

但同時，我們也希望能夠維持現狀。隨著社區數量的不斷增長。我們的目標是發展公司。我們有基本成長目標，也有延伸成長目標，其中許多都取決於在最壞情況下維持當前速度的情況。

There are no question at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Phil Creek. Please go ahead.

目前沒有問題。我想將會議交還給菲爾·克里克先生。請繼續。

Thanks very much for joining us today, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

非常感謝您今天加入我們，我們將在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。