M/I Homes Inc (MHO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to M/I Homes fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded on Wednesday, January 31, 2024.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 M/I Homes 第四季和年終收益電話會議。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，此通話錄音時間為 2024 年 1 月 31 日星期三。

I would now like to turn over the conference to Phil Creek. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給 Phil Creek。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us. Joining me on the call today is Bob Schottenstein, our CEO and President; and Derek Klutch, the President of our Mortgage Company. First, to address Regulation Fair Disclosure, we encourage you to ask any questions regarding issues that you consider material during this call because we are prohibited from discussing significant nonpublic items with you directly. And as to forward-looking statements, I want to remind everyone that the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in today's press release also applies to any comments made during this call. Also, be advised that the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

感謝您加入我們。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長兼總裁 Bob Schottenstein；以及我們抵押貸款公司總裁德里克·克拉奇 (Derek Klutch)。首先，為了解決公平揭露法規問題，我們鼓勵您在本次電話會議中提出有關您認為重要的問題的任何問題，因為我們被禁止直接與您討論重要的非公開項目。至於前瞻性陳述，我想提醒大家，今天新聞稿中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言也適用於本次電話會議期間發表的任何評論。另請注意，該公司不承擔更新本次電話會議期間所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

這樣，我會將電話轉給鮑伯。

Thanks, Phil. Good morning and thank you for joining our call, as we highlight our fourth quarter and full-year 2023 results. We had an outstanding year in 2023, one of the best in our 47-year history. We are particularly pleased with our results given the significant headwinds the housing industry faced as we entered 2023 as well as a rising interest rate environment throughout most of the year, together with inflationary pressures and general uncertainty within the economy.

謝謝，菲爾。早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，我們將重點介紹我們的第四季和 2023 年全年業績。2023 年我們度過了出色的一年，是我們 47 年歷史上最好的一年之一。考慮到進入 2023 年房地產行業面臨的重大阻力，以及全年大部分時間的利率上升環境，以及通膨壓力和經濟中的普遍不確定性，我們對我們的業績感到特別滿意。

For the year, we had very strong income and returns. Pretax income equaled $607 million with a pretax return of 15%. Gross margins for the year came in at 25.3%, the same as last year. We were pleased to see our gross margins hold steady, notwithstanding the choppy market conditions and rising rates. Return on equity was a very solid 20.2%.

這一年，我們的營收和回報非常強勁。稅前收入為 6.07 億美元，稅前報酬率為 15%。全年毛利率為25.3%，與去年持平。我們很高興看到，儘管市場狀況動盪且利率不斷上升，但我們的毛利率仍保持穩定。股本回報率為 20.2%，非常穩定。

Strength of our communities and product offerings, along with our selective and very targeted use of below-market financing incentives, contributed to our strong fourth quarter and full-year sales performance. In the fourth quarter, we sold 1,588 homes, a 61% increase over the last year with significantly better per community absorptions. Clearly, as rates began to fall in the fourth quarter, we saw a pickup in both traffic and demand. Notably, our December sales were the best month of the fourth quarter.

我們的社區和產品供應的實力，以及我們選擇性且非常有針對性地使用低於市場的融資激勵措施，為我們強勁的第四季度和全年銷售業績做出了貢獻。第四季度，我們售出 1,588 套房屋，比去年增長 61%，每個社區的吸收量顯著提高。顯然，隨著第四季度費率開始下降，我們看到流量和需求都有所增加。值得注意的是，我們 12 月的銷售額是第四季最好的月份。

For the full year, we sold 7,977 homes, an increase of 20% over 2022. Our monthly sales pace during the year averaged 3.3 homes per community compared to a sales pace of 3.1 homes per community during 2022. And the quality of buyers that we're seeing continues to be strong with average credit scores of 747 and an average down payment above 18%. Our Smart Series, which is our most affordably priced product, continues to have a very positive impact not just on our sales but our overall performance. Smart Series sales comprised 53% of total company sales in the fourth quarter compared to 52% in the fourth quarter a year ago.

全年我們售出 7,977 套房屋，比 2022 年增加 20%。我們這一年的月銷售速度平均為每個社區 3.3 間房屋，而 2022 年每個社區的銷售速度為 3.1 套。我們看到的買家品質仍然很高，平均信用評分為 747，平均首付超過 18%。我們的智慧系列是我們價格最實惠的產品，它不僅對我們的銷售而且對我們的整體業績產生非常正面的影響。第四季智慧系列銷售額占公司總銷售額的 53%，去年同期為 52%。

And I'm pleased to report that the improvement in traffic and demand that we saw in the fourth quarter has continued as we begin this year, with our January sales exceeding last year. We are very optimistic about a good selling season.

我很高興地向大家報告，從今年開始，我們在第四季度看到的客流量和需求的改善仍在繼續，一月份的銷售額超過了去年。我們對良好的銷售季節非常樂觀。

We continue to see improvement in our construction cycle time. During the fourth quarter, our cycle time improved by an additional 10 days sequentially. Year over year, our cycle time has improved by more than 60 days. Improvement in cycle time remains a major area of focus for us. In terms of deliveries, given that we began 2023 with roughly 15% fewer homes in the field, we were very pleased to close 8,112 homes for the year, 3% less than 2022.

我們繼續看到施工週期的改善。第四季度，我們的週期時間又比上一季縮短了 10 天。與去年同期相比，我們的週期時間縮短了 60 天以上。縮短週期時間仍然是我們關注的主要領域。就交付量而言，鑑於我們從 2023 年開始，現場房屋數量減少了約 15%，我們很高興在這一年關閉了 8,112 套房屋，比 2022 年減少了 3%。

Now I will provide some additional comments on our markets. Our division income contributions in 2023 were led by Dallas, Tampa, Columbus, Orlando, Raleigh, Sarasota, and Charlotte; all had very strong years. New contracts for the fourth quarter in our southern region increased 44% and 89% in our northern region. For the year, new contracts increased 18% in our southern region and 22% in our northern region. Our deliveries decreased 17% over last year's fourth quarter in the southern region, comprising 1,171 deliveries or 58% of our total. Northern region contributed 848 deliveries, a decrease of 13% over last year's fourth quarter.

現在我將對我們的市場提供一些補充評論。2023 年我們部門收入貢獻最多的是達拉斯、坦帕、哥倫布、奧蘭多、羅利、薩拉索塔和夏洛特；他們都度過了非常美好的歲月。第四季南方地區新簽合約成長44%，北部地區成長89%。今年南部地區新簽合約成長18%，北部地區新簽合約成長22%。我們在南部地區的交付量比去年第四季下降了 17%，交付量為 1,171 架，佔總交付量的 58%。北部地區交車量為848輛，較去年第四季下降13%。

For the year, homes delivered, as I mentioned before, or rather homes delivered increased 3% in the southern region but decreased 12% in the northern region. Our owned and controlled lot position in the southern region increased by 12% compared to last year. Owned and controlled lots increased 3% in the northern region.

正如我之前提到的，今年交付的房屋，或者更確切地說，南部地區的房屋交付量增加了 3%，但北部地區的房屋交付量下降了 12%。與去年相比，我們在南部地區的自有及控股地塊持股增加了12%。北部地區擁有和控制的土地增加了 3%。

We have an excellent land position. Company wide, we own approximately 24,400 lots which is roughly a three-year supply. Of that total, 28% of the lots are in our northern region with the balance of 72% in the southern region. On top of our own lots, we control via option contracts an additional 21,300 lots. So in total, we own and control approximately 45,700 single-family lots which is up 9% from a year ago and equates to about a five-year supply. Most importantly, about 47% of our lots are controlled pursuant to option contracts. This gives us significant flexibility to react to changes in demand or individual market conditions.

我們擁有優越的土地位置。在整個公司範圍內，我們擁有大約 24,400 塊土地，大約可供三年使用。其中，28% 的土地位於北部地區，其餘 72% 位於南部地區。除了我們自己的手數之外，我們還透過選擇權合約控制另外 21,300 手。因此，我們總共擁有並控制約 45,700 個單戶住宅地塊，比一年前成長 9%，相當於約五年的供應量。最重要的是，我們大約 47% 的批次是根據選擇權合約控制的。這使我們能夠靈活地應對需求或個別市場條件的變化。

With respect to our balance sheet, we ended the year with an all-time record $2.5 billion of equity which equates to a book value of $91 per share. We also ended the year with $733 million of cash and zero borrowings under our $650 million unsecured revolving credit facility. This resulted in a debt-to-capital ratio of 22%, down from 25% a year ago, and a net debt-to-capital ratio of minus 2%.

就我們的資產負債表而言，我們年底的股本達到歷史最高紀錄 25 億美元，相當於每股帳面價值 91 美元。截至年底，我們的 6.5 億美元無擔保循環信貸額度下還擁有 7.33 億美元現金和零借款。這導致債務與資本比率從一年前的 25% 降至 22%，淨負債與資本比率為負 2%。

So I conclude, let me just state we are in the best financial condition in our history. We feel very good about our business and fully expect to deliver another year of strong results in 2024.

所以我得出結論，讓我聲明一下，我們正處於歷史上最好的財務狀況。我們對我們的業務感覺非常好，並完全期望在 2024 年再創強勁業績。

With that, I'll turn it over to Phil.

有了這個，我會把它交給菲爾。

Thanks, Bob. Our new contracts were up 35% in October, up 92% in November, and up 64% in December, for a 61% improvement in the quarter overall. Our sales pace was 2.5 in the fourth quarter compared to 1.8 in last year's fourth quarter, and our cancellation rate for the fourth quarter was 13%. As to our buyer profile, 53% of our fourth-quarter sales were to first-time buyers compared to 58% a year ago.

謝謝，鮑伯。我們的新合約 10 月成長了 35%，11 月成長了 92%，12 月成長了 64%，整個季度成長了 61%。我們第四季的銷售速度為 2.5，而去年第四季為 1.8，第四季的取消率為 13%。至於我們的買家概況，第四季 53% 的銷售額來自首次買家，而去年同期為 58%。

In addition, 62% of our fourth-quarter sales were inventory homes compared to 64% in last year's fourth quarter. Our community count was 213 at the end of 2023 compared to 196 at the end of '22. During the quarter, we opened 20 new communities while closing 11. And for the year, we opened 76 new communities. We currently estimate that our average 2024 community count will be about 10% higher than 2023.

此外，我們第四季銷售的 62% 是庫存房屋，而去年第四季這一比例為 64%。截至 2023 年底，我們的社區人數為 213 個，而 2022 年底為 196 個。本季度，我們開設了 20 個新社區，同時關閉了 11 個社區。今年，我們開設了 76 個新社區。我們目前估計 2024 年的平均社區數量將比 2023 年增加約 10%。

We delivered 2,019 homes in the fourth quarter, delivering 59% of our backlog compared to 53% a year ago. And as we stated in our third-quarter conference call, we entered the fourth quarter with 1,200 less homes in the field than a year ago. And at December 31, we had 4,400 homes in the field versus 4,500 homes in the field a year ago.

我們在第四季度交付了 2,019 套房屋，交付了積壓訂單的 59%，而去年同期為 53%。正如我們在第三季電話會議中所說，進入第四季後，我們的待售房屋數量比一年前減少了 1,200 套。截至 12 月 31 日，我們有 4,400 戶房屋在建，而一年前為 4,500 戶。

Revenue decreased 20% in the fourth quarter to $973 million. Our average closing price for the fourth quarter was $471,000, a 4% decrease when compared to last year's fourth quarter average closing price of $492,000. Our gross margins were 25.1% for the quarter, up 250 basis points year over year. And for the full year, our gross margins were flat at 25.3%. Our SG&A expenses increased by 4% in the fourth quarter due primarily to higher incentive compensation, increased real estate taxes on our inventory levels, and the cost of having more communities.

第四季營收下降 20% 至 9.73 億美元。我們第四季的平均收盤價為 471,000 美元，比去年第四季的平均收盤價 492,000 美元下降了 4%。本季我們的毛利率為 25.1%，年增 250 個基點。全年毛利率持平於 25.3%。第四季我們的 SG&A 費用增加了 4%，這主要是由於激勵薪資提高、庫存水平房地產稅增加以及擁有更多社區的成本。

Interest income increased to $8.3 million for the quarter due to our higher cash balances, and our pretax income was 15.1% versus 15.4% last year. And our return on equity remained strong at 20%. During the fourth quarter, we generated $153 million of EBITDA. And for the full year, we generated $648 million of EBITDA. We generated $552 million of cash flow from operations this year compared to generating $184 million last year.

由於現金餘額增加，本季利息收入增至 830 萬美元，稅前收入為 15.1%，而去年為 15.4%。我們的股本回報率仍保持在 20% 的強勁水平。第四季度，我們產生了 1.53 億美元的 EBITDA。全年我們產生了 6.48 億美元的 EBITDA。今年我們的營運現金流為 5.52 億美元，而去年為 1.84 億美元。

Our effective tax rate was 24% in the fourth quarter compared to 21% last year's fourth quarter, and our effective rate for the year was 23%. We expect 2024's effective tax rate to also be around 23%. Our earnings per diluted share for the quarter decreased to $3.66 per share from $4.65 per share in last year's fourth quarter and decreased 6% for the year to $16.21 from $17.24 last year. During the fourth quarter, we spent $25 million repurchasing our shares, and for the year, we spent $65 million. We currently have $128 million available under our repurchase authorization. And in the last three years, we have repurchased 9% of our outstanding shares.

我們第四季的有效稅率為 24%，去年第四季為 21%，全年有效稅率為 23%。我們預計 2024 年的有效稅率也將在 23% 左右。我們本季的攤薄每股收益從去年第四季的每股 4.65 美元下降到每股 3.66 美元，全年下降 6%，從去年的 17.24 美元下降到 16.21 美元。第四季度，我們花了 2,500 萬美元回購股票，全年花了 6,500 萬美元。目前，我們的回購授權下有 1.28 億美元可用。在過去三年中，我們回購了 9% 的流通股。

Now Derek Klutch will address our mortgage company results.

現在德里克·克拉奇將討論我們的抵押貸款公司的業績。

Thank you, Phil. In the fourth quarter, our mortgage and title operations achieved pretax income of $4.7 million, down $5 million from 2022 on revenue of $19.7 million, down 13% over last year primarily as a result of lower pricing margins, lower average loan amounts, and fewer loans closed. For the year, pretax income was $38.4 million, and revenue was $93.8 million.

謝謝你，菲爾。第四季度，我們的抵押貸款和產權業務實現稅前收入470 萬美元，比2022 年減少500 萬美元，收入為1,970 萬美元，比去年下降13%，這主要是由於定價利潤率較低、平均貸款金額較低以及貸款額減少所致。貸款關閉。全年稅前收入為 3,840 萬美元，營收為 9,380 萬美元。

Loan to value on our first mortgages for the quarter was 82% in 2023, the same as 2022's fourth quarter, 66% of loans closed in the fourth quarter were conventional, and 34% were FHA or VA. This compares to 79% and 21% respectively for 2022's same period. Our average mortgage amount decreased to $383,000 in 2023's fourth quarter compared to $392,000 in 2022.

2023 年本季第一筆抵押貸款的貸款價值率為 82%，與 2022 年第四季相同，第四季度結清的貸款中有 66% 是傳統貸款，34% 是 FHA 或 VA。相較之下，2022 年同期這一比例分別為 79% 及 21%。2023 年第四季度，我們的平均抵押貸款金額降至 383,000 美元，而 2022 年為 392,000 美元。

Loans originated in the quarter decreased 7% from 1,497 to 1,387, and the volume of loans sold increased by 9%. As mentioned earlier, the borrower profile remained solid with an average down payment of over 18% for the quarter and an average credit score on mortgages originated by M/I Financial of 747. Our mortgage operation captured 88% of the business in the quarter, an increase from 77% in 2022's fourth quarter. We maintained a separate mortgage repurchase facility that provides us with funding for our mortgage originations prior to the sale to investors. At December 31, we had a total of $166 million outstanding under this facility, which expires in October of this year. The facility is a typical 364-day mortgage repurchase line that we extend annually.

本季發放的貸款數量從 1,497 筆減少至 1,387 筆，減少了 7%，銷售貸款量增加了 9%。如前所述，借款人狀況依然穩健，本季平均首付超過 18%，M/I Financial 發起的抵押貸款平均信用評分為 747。我們的抵押貸款業務佔本季業務的 88%，高於 2022 年第四季的 77%。我們維持著單獨的抵押貸款回購機制，在出售給投資者之前為我們的抵押貸款發放提供資金。截至 12 月 31 日，我們在該貸款下的未償債務總額為 1.66 億美元，該貸款將於今年 10 月到期。該設施是典型的 364 天抵押貸款回購額度，我們每年都會延長。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Phil.

現在我將把電話轉回給菲爾。

Thanks, Derek. As far as the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with a cash balance of $733 million and no borrowings under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Our credit facility matures in late 2026, and our public debt with interest rates below 5% mature in 2028 and 2030. Our Total homebuilding inventory at year end was $2.8 billion, which was flat with the prior-year level. During 2023, we spent $344 million on land purchases and $512 million on land development for a total land spend of $856 million. This was up from $837 million in 2022.

謝謝，德里克。就資產負債表而言，第四季末我們的現金餘額為 7.33 億美元，無擔保循環信貸安排下沒有借款。我們的信貸安排將於 2026 年底到期，利率低於 5% 的公共債務將於 2028 年和 2030 年到期。截至年底，我們的住宅建築庫存總額為 28 億美元，與上年水準持平。2023 年，我們在土地購買上花費了 3.44 億美元，在土地開發上花費了 5.12 億美元，土地總支出為 8.56 億美元。這一數字高於 2022 年的 8.37 億美元。

At December 31, '23, we had $715 million of raw land and land under development and $721 million of finished unsold lots. We own 8,724 unsold finished lots. We have a very strong land position at year end, controlling 46,000 lots. We own 24,400 lots, which is about a three-year supply, and of the lots controlled, 53% are owned, which is about a 5.5-year supply.

截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有價值 7.15 億美元的未開發土地和正在開發的土地，以及價值 7.21 億美元的已完工未售土地。我們擁有 8,724 塊未售出的成品地塊。截至年底，我們擁有非常強大的土地地位，控制著 46,000 塊土地。我們擁有 24,400 塊地塊，供應量約為 3 年，而在所控制的地塊中，我們擁有 53%，供應量約為 5.5 年。

And at the end of the year, we had 592 completed inventory homes, about three per community, and 2,023 total inventory homes. Now the total inventory, 912, were in the northern region, and 1,111 is in the southern region. And at December 31, '22, we had 485 completed inventory homes and 1,827 total inventory homes.

到年底，我們有 592 套已竣工的庫存房屋，每個社區大約有 3 套，庫存房屋總數為 2,023 套。目前，北部地區庫存總量為912輛，南部地區庫存量為1,111輛。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 485 套已竣工庫存房屋和 1,827 套庫存房屋。

This completes our presentation. We'll now open the call for any questions or comments.

我們的演示到此結束。我們現在將打開電話詢問任何問題或意見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們現在進行問答環節。（操作員說明）Alan Ratner，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, guys, good morning. Congrats on a great year.

嘿，夥計們，早安。恭喜您度過了美好的一年。

Thanks, Alan.

謝謝，艾倫。

And thanks for all the detail.

感謝您提供的所有細節。

You must be celebrating your football's team performance.

您一定正在慶祝您的足球隊的表現。

I'm still riding high, Bob. I'm still riding high.

我仍然志存高遠，鮑伯。我依然志存高遠。

I expect nothing less.

我的期望絲毫不減。

Next year might look a little different, but we'll see. We'll worry about that then.

明年的情況可能會有所不同，但我們拭目以待。到時候我們就會擔心這個問題。

So a lot of great detail there. Your margins have been pretty stable in this 25% range for the last several quarters. As you think about '24, I know you're not going to give specific guidance, but how are you thinking about the moving pieces of margin, the outlook on material and labor inflation, land inflation in terms of what's going to be flowing through, and then ultimately directionally what your views are on pricing now given what seems like a pretty healthy start to the spring selling season, so far, any ability to push price? So if you could just talk about those three buckets, I think it will help us directionally.

那裡有很多很棒的細節。過去幾個季度，你們的利潤率一直穩定在 25% 的範圍內。當你想到 24 世紀時，我知道你不會給出具體的指導，但你如何考慮利潤的變化、物質和勞動力通脹的前景、土地通脹等方面的變化，然後最終從方向上看，鑑於春季銷售季節似乎有一個相當健康的開端，您對現在的定價有何看法，到目前為止，有能力推動價格嗎？所以如果你能談談這三個方面，我認為這會對我們有方向性的幫助。

Yeah. I think on the cost side, things have stabilized quite a bit, even on land development. A year ago, I was quite concerned, we were quite concerned about inflation on land development. And clearly there has been some, but that appears to be moderating somewhat as well, maybe not every single aspect, still probably a little bit of pressure on concrete. But on the cost side, I think we feel pretty good about where that stands in terms of moderating inflation and moderating increases.

是的。我認為在成本方面，情況已經穩定了很多，甚至在土地開發方面也是如此。一年前，我非常擔心，我們非常擔心土地開發的通貨膨脹。顯然有一些，但似乎也在某種程度上有所緩解，也許不是每一個方面，混凝土仍然可能有一點壓力。但在成本方面，我認為我們對通膨放緩和經濟成長放緩感到非常滿意。

A year ago, as we looked at what we thought was going to happen in 2023, we thought margins would be under considerable pressure given where rates were and the softening of demand. And as it turned out, even though we did have to spend money, as I mentioned, on a selective basis and some of it was very targeted for certain communities to provide a more marketable rate, we were really pleased and surprised, frankly, that our margins held steady at just over 25%, as you mentioned.

一年前，當我們考慮到 2023 年將會發生的情況時，我們認為考慮到利率水準和需求疲軟，利潤率將承受相當大的壓力。事實證明，正如我所提到的，儘管我們確實必須有選擇地花錢，而且其中一些錢是專門針對某些社區以提供更適銷對路的價格，但坦率地說，我們真的感到高興和驚訝正如您所提到的，我們的利潤率穩定在 25% 以上。

It's very, very hard to forecast margins. Everybody has an opinion. But sitting where we are now, as I look at demand and I look at traffic, website traffic, the way the year is starting out, what we're hearing in the field, even in markets that might have been a little weaker throughout the early parts of last year and now appear to be quite a bit stronger, we're hopeful that we can continue to maintain margins in this level. I don't know if they'll go up. We're super excited about all the new communities we're going to be opening, and it was reflected in the average selling price that Phil mentioned coming down slightly.

預測利潤率非常非常困難。每個人都有意見。但坐在我們現在的位置上，當我關注需求、流量、網站流量、今年開始的方式、我們在該領域聽到的消息時，即使是在整個季度可能有點疲軟的市場中去年年初，現在似乎要強一些，我們希望能夠繼續將利潤率維持在這個水準。不知道會不會漲我們對即將開設的所有新社區感到非常興奮，而菲爾提到的平均售價略有下降也反映了這一點。

We have a lot more affordable product offerings that we hope will provide bigger pace and strong margins coming out this year. But you don't know until you really know, if you're really honest about it. But I guess sitting here today, generally pretty optimistic about the state of housing, the state of demand, and our ability to continue to generate what I think are very solid returns.

我們提供了更多實惠的產品，希望今年能提供更快的速度和更高的利潤。但除非你真的知道，如果你真的誠實的話，你不會知道。但我想今天坐在這裡，總體上對住房狀況、需求狀況以及我們繼續產生我認為非常堅實的回報的能力相當樂觀。

We're not expecting much erosion, frankly. And maybe we'll be fortunate with a little bit of uptick because we don't see the pressure on the cost side maybe quite as much as we did a couple of years ago. And frankly, the other thing is, for the most part, the supply chain disruptions that we just couldn't stop talking about post COVID now seem to have pretty much shut cleared out and dissipated.

坦白說，我們預計不會有太大的侵蝕。也許我們會幸運地看到一點點上升，因為我們沒有看到成本方面的壓力可能像幾年前那麼大。坦白說，另一件事是，在很大程度上，我們在新冠疫情之後一直不停地談論的供應鏈中斷現在似乎已經基本消除並消失了。

That's all really helpful and encouraging to hear, so hopefully that momentum continues. And, yes, congrats on the maintaining margins that when --

聽到這些確實很有幫助和鼓舞人心，所以希望這種勢頭能夠繼續下去。是的，恭喜您維持了利潤，當--

Look, and I don't think we're -- I don't think we're alone in this which is also comforting. If you're the only one that's experiencing something, it always makes you wonder whether it's good or bad. But I think that there's a lot of momentum within the industry right now which is -- you sort of hear things and seeing what other builders have recently said as well, it resonates with us.

聽著，我不認為我們是唯一的人，這也令人欣慰。如果你是唯一經歷過某件事的人，它總是會讓你想知道它是好還是壞。但我認為，目前行業內有很大的動力——你聽到一些事情，看到其他建築商最近所說的話，這會引起我們的共鳴。

And Alan, just couple more things. Just to follow up on what Bob said. The stores we opened last year ended up performing better pace, better margin than we anticipated. And we talked about our current estimate of this year, having on average 10% more stores. Over half of those expected openings are in the first half of this year, which again will not only help us with sales, also with closings this year. So we're very excited about the new stores we're opening also.

艾倫，還有更多事情。只是為了跟進鮑伯所說的話。我們去年開設的商店的表現比我們預期的要好，利潤率也比我們預期的要好。我們談到了目前對今年的估計，平均增加 10% 的門市。超過一半的預計開業時間是在今年上半年，這不僅有助於我們的銷售，也有助於今年的關閉。因此，我們對即將開設的新店也感到非常興奮。

That's great. Thanks for that addition there, Phil. Second question around spec versus BTO. I mean, the Smart Series has obviously been a huge focus of yours for the last several years. I think, if I heard you correctly, the share of spec sales actually ticked a little bit lower this quarter year on year. And I guess I'm curious, as you think about the landscape today with cycle times normalizing, resale inventory is still incredibly low but maybe starting to tick up a little bit, does that change your thinking at all as far as the mix of your business at spec versus BTO? Are you starting to see consumers show more interest there?

那太棒了。感謝菲爾的補充。關於規範與 BTO 的第二個問題。我的意思是，智能係列顯然是過去幾年你們關注的重點。我想，如果我沒聽錯的話，本季規格銷售的份額實際上比去年同期略有下降。我想我很好奇，當您考慮當今的情況時，週期時間正常化，轉售庫存仍然非常低，但可能開始略有上升，就您的產品組合而言，這是否會改變您的想法符合規範的業務與BTO 的比較？您是否開始看到消費者對此表現出更大的興趣？

Yeah, great question. I'll let Phil give a little more of the detail. We've increased -- it's a subdivision business, so it's not necessarily the case in every subdivision. But on average, our plan is to have more specs than maybe we would have had three or four years ago. We've ramped up our specs for all the reasons that you mentioned.

是的，很好的問題。我會讓菲爾提供更多細節。我們增加了——這是一個細分業務，所以不一定每個細分都是這樣。但平均而言，我們的計劃是擁有比三、四年前更多的規格。出於您提到的所有原因，我們提高了規格。

And then the other thing is, in terms of mix with Smart Series and also townhomes, attached townhomes, which represent an increasing percentage of our business company wide, that will also result in more specs with these four-unit and six-unit buildings being the most common form of townhomes. So you start a building with one or two sales, you automatically have three or four specs out there.

另一件事是，就智慧系列和聯排別墅、附屬聯排別墅的混合而言，它們在我們公司範圍內所佔的比例越來越大，這也將導致這些四單元和六單元建築的更多規格最常見的聯排別墅形式。因此，當您開始建造一棟大樓並進行一兩次銷售時，您自然會擁有三到四個規格。

Phil, you want to add anything else to that?

菲爾，你還想補充什麼嗎？

Yeah. As far as spec levels, again, in general, depending on the month or whatever, we're selling 50% to 60% specs. One of the good news is that the gross margin on specs versus to be built is not very much in some markets. Matter of fact, it's like really, really close. So we do feel good about our spec levels.

是的。就規格等級而言，一般來說，根據月份或其他情況，我們銷售 50% 到 60% 的規格。好消息之一是，在某些市場中，規格的毛利率與待建造的毛利率並不高。事實上，這真的非常非常接近。所以我們對我們的規格水平確實感覺良好。

We are doing more attached townhouses. We're doing more smaller single-family detached. And by its nature, we're doing a few more specs. And those specs get up to the 2,200, 2,300, 2,400. But again, as our store count moves up, that's about 10 per store and then having two, three, four finished specs, again, seems like a good number to us.

我們正在做更多的聯排別墅。我們正在建造更多小型獨立屋。就其性質而言，我們正在製定更多規格。這些規格最高可達 2,200、2,300、2,400。但同樣，隨著我們商店數量的增加，每家商店大約有 10 家，然後有兩個、三個、四個成品規格，對我們來說，這似乎是一個不錯的數字。

Per community.

每個社區。

Per community. So we do feel good about our spec levels. We want to make sure that we have what we need.

每個社區。所以我們對我們的規格水平確實感覺良好。我們想確保我們擁有我們需要的東西。

Makes sense. All right. Well, appreciate it all, and best of luck in the new year.

說得通。好的。好吧，感謝這一切，祝新的一年好運。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊·麥卡利斯，韋德布希。

Phil, if you don't mind, what was the monthly order pace through 4Q? And maybe any color you can give us on January?

Phil，如果您不介意的話，請問第四季的每月訂單速度是多少？也許您可以在一月份為我們提供任何顏色？

I'll take the last part of that first and then Phil will give you the pace. It's somewhat surprising just -- Let me start over. What I mentioned was, is that the increase in demand and traffic that really sort of intensified during the fourth quarter and that resulted in December being our best month of the quarter, that has continued. And that increase in traffic and demand and -- well, technically January is not over, our January sales will exceed last year's. We're very pleased with the way the year's starting up and optimistic about the selling season.

我會先講最後一部分，然後菲爾會給你節奏。這有點令人驚訝——讓我重新開始。我提到的是，第四季度需求和流量的成長確實加劇，導致 12 月成為我們本季表現最好的月份，而且這種情況仍在持續。流量和需求的增加——嗯，從技術上講，一月還沒結束，我們一月份的銷售額將超過去年。我們對今年的開局感到非常滿意，並對銷售季節感到樂觀。

Phil can give you the details on pace.

菲爾可以為您提供有關速度的詳細資訊。

Yeah, sales pace, Jay, in the fourth quarter, it was 2.5. In the fourth quarter last year, it was 1.8. And again, in the third quarter, we were 3.4. So again, we have been improving pace and have a big focus on that, hope to continue improving that.

是的，傑伊，第四季的銷售速度是 2.5。去年第四季為1.8。第三季度，我們的得分再次達到 3.4。再說一次，我們一直在提高速度，並且非常關注這一點，希望繼續改進。

Great. And then could you talk about the community count because you all guided, I think, to like 225 maybe, and you came in at 213. Maybe what's going on there? And I know you said you're going to open 50% of the new stores in the first half of '24. I mean, is it going to be a pretty big step up in the total community count in the first quarter sequentially?

偉大的。然後你能談談社區數數嗎，因為我想，你們都被引導到喜歡 225 個，而你們進來的是 213 個。也許那裡發生了什麼事？我知道您說過您將在 24 年上半年開設 50% 的新店。我的意思是，第一季的社區總數是否會連續大幅增加？

Yeah, Jay, again, overall, we expect our community count this year to be on average up about 10%. Last year, we were a little short of where we thought we would be at year end primarily because about 10 stores were delayed. Most of them are just sliding into this year. We do expect over half the stores we're opening this year to be the first half. So if you look at the year in general, we ended the year with 213, we expect to get to that 225-type level by the middle of the year.

是的，Jay，總的來說，我們預計今年的社區數量平均成長約 10%。去年，我們的業績與我們預期的年底業績略有差距，主要是因為大約 10 家商店被推遲。他們中的大多數人剛剛進入今年。我們確實預計今年新開的商店中有一半以上是在上半年。因此，如果你從總體上看今年，我們年底的數量為 213，我們預計到年中將達到 225 的水平。

And again, the second half of the year gets a little more difficult because it does take a little longer to develop land and those type things, but we do feel comfortable saying, today, we think we'll be up 10% on average.

再說一次，今年下半年會變得更加困難，因為開發土地和類似的東西確實需要更長的時間，但我們確實可以放心地說，今天，我們認為我們的平均成長率將達到 10%。

Okay, right. And then, I guess, Alan already asked you the gross margin question, but just maybe what type of pricing power are you seeing currently, maybe what percentage of your communities during fourth quarter were you able to raise prices, raise base pricing?

好吧，對。然後，我想艾倫已經問過你毛利率問題，但也許你目前看到的是哪種類型的定價能力，也許你的社區在第四季度能夠提高價格、提高基本定價的百分比是多少？

I think pricing power is limited. If we can continue to stay at this 25% gross margin level this year, we're going to have a phenomenal year, and that's our goal. I don't know that I can (technical difficulty) with any kind of certainty whether we'll be able to grow margins. I think that the balance between demand and price right now in the market generally is really good. And like I said before, a year ago, I thought margins were going to fall off 100 or 200 basis points just because of the higher rates and so forth. And that didn't happen last year.

我認為定價能力是有限的。如果今年我們能夠繼續維持 25% 的毛利率水平，我們將迎來非凡的一年，這就是我們的目標。我不知道我是否能夠（技術上的困難）確定我們是否能夠增加利潤。我認為目前市場上的需求和價格之間的平衡總體來說非常好。正如我之前所說，一年前，我認為僅僅因為利率上升等原因，利潤率就會下降 100 或 200 個基點。去年這種情況並沒有發生。

We were really pleased that our margins held steady. I think that strong performance, I think, is a testament to our people and our product and our communities. But I think that, knowing what we know today, I'm not sure how much pricing power we'll see, but I think we'd be thrilled. And I think there's a good possibility that our margins will remain as we talked about with Alan in this 25% range.

我們非常高興我們的利潤率保持穩定。我認為，強勁的表現證明了我們的員工、我們的產品和我們的社區。但我認為，根據我們今天所了解的情況，我不確定我們會看到多少定價能力，但我認為我們會感到興奮。我認為，正如我們與艾倫討論的那樣，我們的利潤率很有可能保持在 25% 的範圍內。

Great. And I guess, from a competitive standpoint, I saw a lot of your larger competitors being aggressive on both base price discounts and incentives during the calendar fourth quarter of '23. I guess, what are you seeing now relative to what was going on a month ago? And do you feel like the pace of incentives may have to start picking up again if mortgage rates don't start coming down?

偉大的。我想，從競爭的角度來看，我看到許多較大的競爭對手在 2023 年第四季在基本價格折扣和激勵方面都表現得很積極。我想，與一個月前相比，現在看到了什麼？您是否認為如果抵押貸款利率不開始下降，激勵措施的步伐可能必須再次加快？

Well, I actually have a slightly contrary view on that. I think the -- First of all, it's very market specific. It's cliche, but every market's different. I think that in a number of instances, we're starting to see incentives (technical difficulty) ours have, and the slight decline in mortgage rates that we've seen over the last 90 days is made so that you don't have to spend as much where needed to provide a rate in either the low 6s or the high 5s. And you'd rather not spend anything on that, but that's what we have been doing. And the net-net of that has resulted in our 25.3% gross margins. If demand continues to stay like it does like it is now, I'd like to think that builder behavior will respond accordingly and not see as much of the need for incentivizing. That's how we're thinking about it.

嗯，實際上我對此有稍微相反的看法。我認為——首先，它是針對特定市場的。這是陳腔濫調，但每個市場都不同。我認為，在許多情況下，我們開始看到我們的激勵措施（技術難度），並且我們在過去 90 天內看到的抵押貸款利率略有下降，這樣您就不必在需要的地方花費盡可能多的錢來提供低6 分或高5 分的費率。你寧願不花任何錢在這上面，但這就是我們一直在做的事情。我們的毛利率達到了 25.3%。如果需求繼續像現在一樣，我認為建築商的行為將會做出相應的反應，並且不會看到那麼多的激勵需求。我們就是這麼想的。

Jay, also, as Bob mentioned, every subdivision is a little different because we're definitely in the subdivision business. If you look at the 213 communities we have going into this year, like we said, 76 of them opened in '23, now over 100 of them opened in '22. So how you open, what model you have, what the specification level is of those houses, all of those things, how many specs do you want. Again, I mean, we're not driven solely by volume. Obviously, we want to continue to grow and think we are positioned to grow.

傑伊，正如鮑勃所提到的，每個細分領域都有點不同，因為我們肯定從事細分業務。如果你看看我們今年進入的 213 個社區，就像我們所說的，其中 76 個是在 23 年開業的，現在有超過 100 個是在 22 年開業的。那麼你怎麼開，你有什麼型號，這些房子的規格等級是什麼，所有這些東西，你想要多少規格。我再說一遍，我們不只受銷量驅動。顯然，我們希望繼續成長，並認為我們有能力實現成長。

But again, when you have $3 billion, $4 billion, $5 billion of revenue, 15 basis points, 25 basis points mean a whole lot. So we really try to focus on every subdivision, not get too far ahead of ourselves, make sure we're focused on who the buyer is. So every subdivision is really a little different. We we don't do blanket things like let's do interest rate buydowns everywhere. And some customers need an interest rate buydown for the payment help, some customers need closing cost help. So again, we try to deal with it more on a rifle approach as opposed to just a shotgun across the board.

但同樣，當你有 30 億美元、40 億美元、50 億美元的收入時，15 個基點、25 個基點意味著很多。因此，我們確實努力專注於每一個細分領域，不要太超前，確保我們專注於買家是誰。所以每個細分確實有點不同。我們不會做一些籠統的事情，例如我們到處都進行利率購買。有些客戶需要利率購買來獲得付款幫助，有些客戶需要結算成本幫助。因此，我們再次嘗試更多地以步槍的方式來處理它，而不是僅僅用霰彈槍來應對。

Sure. Any notion of what you're going to spend on land acquisition and development this year?

當然。您知道今年您將在土地收購和開發上花費多少錢嗎？

Well, we definitely expect to spend more. We did spend a little more in '23 than '22. And the majority is continuing to be land development. Land development costs, as Bob says, is not going up the way it was. The good news is it's stabilizing, but we do want to continue to grow, have more stores. So we do expect to be spending more on land this year.

嗯，我們肯定希望花更多錢。我們在 23 年的支出確實比 22 年多了一點。其中大部分仍在繼續進行土地開發。正如鮑伯所說，土地開發成本並沒有像以前那樣上漲。好消息是它正在穩定，但我們確實希望繼續成長，並擁有更多商店。因此，我們確實預計今年將在土地上花費更多。

Look, I think we've said this before, our goal is to grow the business. We're very bullish about housing, and we're really bullish about our business. And our growth goals, 5% to 10% per year, hopefully closer to 10%, that remains our strategic outlook.

聽著，我想我們之前已經說過了，我們的目標是發展業務。我們非常看好房地產，也非常看好我們的業務。我們的成長目標是每年 5% 到 10%，希望接近 10%，這仍然是我們的策略展望。

Got you. And then just one other question because we've heard some builders talking about it, and this is relative to what you said, Bob, about gross margins being flat at this 25%-ish level. Land prices, we've heard, have been going up for some of the builders. Labor prices seem to be going up. I guess, what are the levers you're going to have to pull? Is it going to be maybe reduction in the other input costs that are coming in that keep your gross margin flat around this 25% level, Bob, especially with land prices seeing the move up?

明白你了。然後還有一個問題，因為我們聽到一些建築商談論這個問題，這與鮑勃您所說的毛利率保持在 25% 左右的水平有關。我們聽說，一些建築商的土地價格一直在上漲。勞動力價格似乎正在上漲。我想，你需要拉什麼槓桿？鮑勃，特別是在土地價格上漲的情況下，是否可能會減少其他投入成本，使您的毛利率保持在 25% 左右？

I guess, what are the levers you're going to have to push and pull to hold to at these levels especially if -- If you don't think you're going to get much pricing power this year, what are the things you're going to have to do to maintain it at this 25% level.

我想，你必須推動和拉動哪些槓桿才能保持在這些水平上，特別是如果——如果你認為今年不會獲得太多定價權，那麼你需要做哪些事情？我們必須設法將其維持在25%的水平。

Continue to produce really high-quality affordable product whether it's attached or detached and well-located communities,. You probably would like a more magical answer, but I think that's what it goes back to. Well-located communities will sell, and they will sell at really good margins. And if the majority of our communities check the box of being exceptionally well located, and we think they do, we think we can maintain our margins that way. That's what happened in 2023. We expect that to happen in 2024.

繼續生產真正高品質、價格實惠的產品，無論是附屬社區還是獨立社區以及位置優越的社區。你可能想要一個更神奇的答案，但我認為這就是它的根源。位置優越的社區會出售，而且會以非常好的利潤出售。如果我們的大多數社區都勾選了地理位置優越的方框，而且我們認為他們這樣做了，我們認為我們可以透過這種方式保持我們的利潤。這就是 2023 年發生的事。我們預計這將在 2024 年發生。

And that's -- I mean, definitely, we're all focused on that. Couple of details with that, Jay. Specifications of the product to make sure we're putting things in the homes that people really want, that they need, and they'll pay for, not overbuilding. That's very important to us.

那是——我的意思是，我們都非常關注這一點。傑伊，有幾個細節。產品規格確保我們在家中放置人們真正想要、需要的東西，並且他們願意付費，而不是過度建造。這對我們來說非常重要。

As we increase the mix of attached product in our company, probably approaching somewhere around 20% company wide, we get higher density and that bring -- even though the land they cost more, all those things come back into the average selling price. If -- I don't want to sound like a broken record, but if someone would have said a year ago, your average price is going to come down, will your margins stay the same? You might have go, I don't think so, but that's what happened.

隨著我們增加公司的附加產品組合，可能接近全公司範圍的20% 左右，我們獲得了更高的密度，這帶來了——儘管它們的土地成本更高，但所有這些東西都會回到平均售價中。如果——我不想聽起來像是打破了紀錄，但如果一年前有人說，你們的平均價格將會下降，你們的利潤率會保持不變嗎？你可能已經走了，我不這麼認為，但事實就是這樣。

And we may still see a slight relative reduction in average price because of the continued leaning into of slightly more attached product as well as -- We've just had homerun success with our Smart Series, and it's over half of our business, and it will continue to be.

我們可能仍然會看到平均價格略有相對下降，因為我們繼續傾向於稍微附加的產品以及——我們剛剛通過我們的智能係列取得了本壘打成功，它超過了我們業務的一半，而且它將會繼續如此。

And then a couple more things we are focused on as far as trying to improve returns and so forth, we talked about cycle time. We have made dramatic improvements. We still think there's some improvement there we can make. Also, sales pace, again, make sure we have a very focused product, who are the buyers that we provide, the products they want, best trained sales team, et cetera. But when you look at sales pace, cycle time, big impact on overall returns

然後，我們也專注於了一些努力提高回報等方面的事情，我們討論了週期時間。我們已經取得了巨大的進步。我們仍然認為我們可以做出一些改進。此外，銷售速度再次確保我們有一個非常專注的產品，我們提供的買家是誰，他們想要的產品，訓練有素的銷售團隊等等。但當你觀察銷售速度、週期時間時，你會發現對整體回報的巨大影響

Phil and I are playing off of each other here. Just on the cycle time, in many of our markets right now, our cycle time is approaching pre-COVID levels, which is where it needs to be, and we still have a little bit of room to run there in some other markets. But 60-day improvement on average year over year in 2023, I think, was heroic. That was our goal. I thought we thought it was a stretch goal, but we hit it. And as I said in my primary comments, cycle time remains a very, very intense area of focus for us, and that contributes to margins as well and returns.

菲爾和我在這裡互相較勁。就週期時間而言，目前在我們的許多市場中，我們的週期時間已接近新冠疫情前的水平，這正是它需要達到的水平，而且我們在其他一些市場仍然有一點運行空間。但我認為 2023 年平均年比改善 60 ​​天是非常了不起的。這就是我們的目標。我以為我們認為這是一個延伸目標，但我們實現了。正如我在主要評論中所說，週期時間仍然是我們非常非常關注的領域，這也有助於提高利潤和回報。

And you also know, Jay, I mean, we're just getting started in Nashville. We closed our first house in Nashville in the fourth quarter. We just opened for sale our second community in Nashville. So we're excited about that. Our new Fort Myers Naples division also getting additional stores opened for sales and closings. So we're excited about those two markets contributing to our results.

你也知道，傑伊，我的意思是，我們在納許維爾才剛開始。我們在第四季度關閉了納許維爾的第一棟房子。我們剛剛在納許維爾開放出售我們的第二個社區。所以我們對此感到興奮。我們新的邁爾斯堡那不勒斯分部也開設了更多商店進行銷售和關閉。因此，我們對這兩個市場對我們業績的貢獻感到興奮。

Got you. And then one more and I'll turn it over. When you think about an attached home versus a detached home, just a rough average, is there a gross margin differential on a per-foot basis between those two?

明白你了。然後再來一張，我會把它翻過來。當您考慮附屬住宅與獨立住宅時，僅考慮粗略平均值，這兩者之間每英尺的毛利率是否有差異？

No. The underwriting -- We haven't changed our approach in underwriting. Every community has underwritten to hit certain thresholds, and we're not doing attached product at lower margins. That's not the goal. If anything, hopefully with pace and so forth, that will be at least equal to if not better than what we get with single-family. We've had -- and I don't want to let this go unsaid either. We have a lot of move-up product that's very successful for us. And so we're not just -- we don't have all our eggs in one basket, but about half of our business is designed to be very affordable.

不。承保－我們沒有改變承保方式。每個社區都已承保達到一定的閾值，並且我們不會以較低的利潤生產附加產品。那不是目標。如果有什麼不同的話，希望隨著步伐等的加快，這將至少等於（如果不是更好）我們在單戶住宅中得到的結果。我們已經——而且我也不想讓這件事不說出來。我們有很多非常成功的升級產品。因此，我們不僅——我們沒有把所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子裡，而且我們大約一半的業務都被設計得非常實惠。

Got you. Okay. I'll jump back in the queue.

明白你了。好的。我會跳回到隊列中。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Creek, please proceed with your closing remarks.

（操作員說明） 目前沒有其他問題。Creek 先生，請繼續您的結束語。

Thank you for joining us. Look forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您加入我們。期待下個季度與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。