M/I Homes Inc (MHO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining today's M/I Homes Fourth Quarter and Year Ending Earnings Conference Call. My name is Tia, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，下午好。感謝您參加今天的 M/I Homes 第四季度和年終收益電話會議。我叫 Tia，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to pass the call over to your host, Phil Creek with M/I Homes. Please proceed.

我現在想將電話轉給您的房東 Phil Creek 和 M/I Homes。請繼續。

Thank you, and thanks for joining us today on the call. In Columbus is Bob Schottenstein, our CEO and President; Susan Krohne, our SVP and Chief Legal Officer; Derek Klutch, President of our mortgage company; Ann Marie Hunker, VP, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller; and Mark Kirkendall, VP and Treasurer.

謝謝你，也感謝你今天加入我們的電話會議。我們的首席執行官兼總裁 Bob Schottenstein 在哥倫布市；我們的高級副總裁兼首席法務官 Susan Krohne；我們抵押貸款公司的總裁 Derek Klutch； Ann Marie Hunker，副總裁、首席會計官兼財務總監；副總裁兼財務主管 Mark Kirkendall。

First, to address Regulation Fair Disclosure, we encourage you to ask any questions regarding issues that you consider material during this call because we are prohibited from discussing significant nonpublic items with you directly. And as to forward-looking statements, I want to remind everyone that the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in today's press release also applies to any comments made during this call. Also be advised that the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during that call.

首先，為了解決監管公平披露問題，我們鼓勵您在本次電話會議期間就您認為重要的問題提出任何問題，因為我們被禁止直接與您討論重要的非公開項目。至於前瞻性陳述，我想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言也適用於本次電話會議期間發表的任何評論。另請注意，該公司不承擔更新該電話會議期間所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給鮑勃。

Thanks, Phil. Good afternoon and thank you for joining our call. We are pleased to report our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results, highlighted by record revenue, record income and very strong returns. We increased our revenue by 10% to a record $4.1 billion, increased pretax income by 25% to a record $635 million and improved our operating margin by 160 basis points to 15.4%.

謝謝，菲爾。下午好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。我們很高興地報告我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績，突出顯示創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的收入和非常強勁的回報。我們的收入增加了 10%，達到創紀錄的 41 億美元，稅前收入增加了 25%，達到創紀錄的 6.35 億美元，營業利潤率提高了 160 個基點，達到 15.4%。

In addition, we ended the year in the best financial condition in our 46-year history with a cash balance over $300 million, 0 borrowings under our $650 million credit facility and a debt-to-capital ratio of 25%. We were particularly pleased to deliver such strong operating and financial results in the face of challenging market conditions.

此外，我們以 46 年曆史上最好的財務狀況結束了這一年，現金餘額超過 3 億美元，我們的 6.5 億美元信貸額度下的借款為零，債務資本比率為 25%。面對充滿挑戰的市場條件，我們特別高興能夠取得如此強勁的經營和財務業績。

As has been well documented, the rapid rise in interest rates over the past 9 months has materially impacted demand for new homes and demand for existing homes. On the other hand, the demand for homes has not vanished. Instead, the higher rates have resulted in potential buyers taking a pause and moving to the sidelines. There remains very tangible homebuyer demographics, particularly among millennials and Gen Z individuals. And the prolonged undersupply of homes that has persisted for years all gives us great confidence in the long-term outlook for the housing market and our industry.

正如有據可查的那樣，過去 9 個月利率的快速上升對新房和現有房的需求產生了重大影響。另一方面，購房需求並未消失。相反，更高的利率導致潛在買家停下來轉而觀望。仍然有非常明確的購房者人口統計數據，尤其是在千禧一代和 Z 世代個人中。多年來持續存在的房屋長期供不應求，都讓我們對房地產市場和我們行業的長期前景充滿信心。

Our new contracts for the full year 2022 decreased by 27% compared to the record sales we posted in 2021. For the fourth quarter, our new contracts were down 44% compared to a year ago. However, as Phil will outline in a few minutes, we saw our sales and demand begin to improve during the latter part of the fourth quarter despite the higher rate environment.

與我們在 2021 年公佈的創紀錄銷售額相比，我們 2022 年全年的新合同減少了 27%。第四季度，我們的新合同與去年同期相比下降了 44%。然而，正如菲爾將在幾分鐘內概述的那樣，儘管利率環境較高，但我們看到我們的銷售和需求在第四季度後半段開始改善。

Moreover and importantly, the improvement and strength in buyer demand, traffic and sales has continued into 2023. Specifically, with noticeably stronger levels of traffic both in our models and online, we sold 633 homes in January. This is our best sales month since April of last year. And though down 18% from a year ago, this represents an approximate 60% sequential improvement over the average monthly sales we recorded during the last half of 2022.

此外，重要的是，買家需求、流量和銷售的改善和強勁一直持續到 2023 年。具體而言，由於我們的模型和在線流量水平明顯增強，我們在 1 月份售出了 633 套房屋。這是自去年 4 月以來我們最好的銷售月份。儘管比一年前下降了 18%，但這比我們在 2022 年下半年記錄的平均月銷售額環比提高了約 60%。

Clearly, we are encouraged by this recent material improvement in our traffic and sales, and similar commentary from select other builders adds to this encouragement. While there remains much uncertainty in the market and no one really knows whether this recent strengthening and improvement in demand and sales will continue, we do believe it underscores and confirms the underlying homebuyer demographics and desire for a new home.

顯然，最近我們的流量和銷售額有了實質性的改善，這讓我們感到鼓舞，而來自其他選定建築商的類似評論也增加了這種鼓勵。雖然市場仍然存在很多不確定性，而且沒有人真正知道最近這種需求和銷售的增強和改善是否會持續，但我們確實相信它強調並證實了潛在的購房者人口統計數據和對新房的渴望。

Now I'd like to provide some comments on our specific markets. We experienced strong performance from our divisions in 2022 with substantial income contributions across the board, led by Dallas, Tampa, Columbus, Orlando, Raleigh and Charlotte.

現在我想就我們的特定市場發表一些評論。在達拉斯、坦帕、哥倫布、奧蘭多、羅利和夏洛特的帶動下，我們的部門在 2022 年表現強勁，全面貢獻了可觀的收入。

In our Southern region, which consists of 11 markets in Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee, our deliveries increased 4% over last year's fourth quarter, comprising 1,413 deliveries or 59% of the total. Northern region, which consists of our other 6 markets located in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota, contributed 971 deliveries, which was an increase of 2% over last year's fourth quarter. For the year, homes delivered decreased 5% in the Southern region and were flat in the Northern region.

在我們的南部地區，包括德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州、北卡羅來納州和田納西州的 11 個市場，我們的交付量比去年第四季度增長了 4%，交付量為 1,413 次，佔總數的 59%。北部地區，包括我們位於俄亥俄州、印第安納州、伊利諾伊州、密歇根州和明尼蘇達州的其他 6 個市場，貢獻了 971 輛交付，比去年第四季度增長了 2%。今年，南部地區的房屋交付量下降了 5%，而北部地區則持平。

Our fourth quarter new contracts in the Southern region decreased by 41% and decreased by 48% in the Northern region. For the year, new contracts decreased 28% in the Southern region, 25% in the Northern region. Our owned and controlled lot position in the Southern region decreased by 8% compared to a year ago and increased by 3% in the Northern region when compared to 2021.

我們第四季度在南部地區的新合同下降了 41%，在北部地區下降了 48%。全年，南部地區新簽合同下降 28%，北部地區下降 25%。與 2021 年相比，我們在南部地區擁有和控制的地塊位置與一年前相比下降了 8%，在北部地區則增加了 3%。

Company-wide, we now own approximately 25,000 single-family lots or lot equivalents. Of this total, 32% are in the Northern region, 68% in the Southern region. This equates to roughly a 3-year supply of owned lots. On top of the owned lots, we control pursuant to option contracts an additional 17,100 lots.

在整個公司範圍內，我們現在擁有大約 25,000 個單戶住宅地塊或地塊等價物。其中，北部地區佔 32%，南部地區佔 68%。這相當於大約 3 年的自有地塊供應量。除了擁有的地塊之外，我們根據期權合約控制了另外 17,100 塊地塊。

So in total, we own and control roughly 42,000 single-family lots, which is down 4% from a year ago and equates to about a 5-year supply. Most importantly, about 41% of our lots are controlled under option contracts, thereby giving us significant and important flexibility to react to changes in market conditions.

因此，我們總共擁有並控制著大約 42,000 個單戶住宅地塊，比一年前下降了 4%，相當於大約 5 年的供應量。最重要的是，我們約有 41% 的手數受期權合約控制，從而使我們能夠靈活應對市場狀況的變化。

Before I turn the call over to Phil, let me just close with a few additional comments. We are very excited about our business as we look ahead to 2023. The new communities that we opened in 2022 are performing well, and the planned new community openings for 2023 should further contribute to the strength of our operation.

在我將電話轉給 Phil 之前，讓我以一些額外的評論作為結束。展望 2023 年，我們對我們的業務感到非常興奮。我們在 2022 年開設的新社區表現良好，計劃在 2023 年開設的新社區應該會進一步增強我們的運營實力。

Building upon the long-term success of our Orlando, Tampa and Sarasota operations, we recently announced our entry into the Fort Myers-Naples market. This will allow us to continue our growth along the Southwest Coast of Florida.

在奧蘭多、坦帕和薩拉索塔業務取得長期成功的基礎上，我們最近宣布進入邁爾斯堡-那不勒斯市場。這將使我們能夠繼續沿著佛羅里達州西南海岸發展。

As I mentioned at the beginning of my remarks, our financial condition is excellent, as strong as it's ever been with low debt levels, significant cash and a well-balanced land position. The operating strategy we have employed is very well suited to respond to current macroeconomic conditions. For all these reasons, we believe M/I Homes is very well positioned for 2023 and beyond.

正如我在發言開頭提到的，我們的財務狀況非常好，一如既往地強勁，債務水平低，現金充足，土地狀況良好。我們採用的經營策略非常適合應對當前的宏觀經濟狀況。出於所有這些原因，我們認為 M/I Homes 在 2023 年及以後處於非常有利的位置。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給菲爾。

Thanks, Bob. Our new contracts were down 45% in October, down 51% in November and down 35% in December for a 44% decline in the quarter compared to last year's fourth quarter. And our sales pace was 1.8 in the fourth quarter compared to 3.3 in last year's fourth quarter. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 30%. As to our buyer profile, about 58% of our fourth quarter sales were to first-time buyers compared to 53% a year ago. And 64% of our fourth quarter sales were inventory homes compared to 45% in last year's fourth quarter.

謝謝，鮑勃。我們的新合同在 10 月份下降了 45%，在 11 月份下降了 51%，在 12 月份下降了 35%，與去年第四季度相比，本季度下降了 44%。第四季度我們的銷售速度為 1.8，而去年第四季度為 3.3。我們本季度的取消率為 30%。至於我們的買家概況，我們第四季度約 58% 的銷售額是針對首次購買者的，而一年前這一比例為 53%。我們第四季度銷售額的 64% 是庫存房屋，而去年第四季度為 45%。

Our community count was 196 at the end of 2022 compared to 175 a year ago. During the quarter, we opened 25 new communities while closing 7. For the year, we opened 101 new communities compared to opening 72 in 2021. We currently estimate we will end 2023 with about 225 communities. We delivered an all-time quarterly record 2,384 homes in the fourth quarter, delivering 53% of our backlog compared to 43% a year ago. And revenue increased 16% in the fourth quarter of this year, reaching an all-time quarterly record $1.2 billion.

到 2022 年底，我們的社區數量為 196，而一年前為 175。在本季度，我們開設了 25 個新社區，同時關閉了 7 個。今年，我們開設了 101 個新社區，而 2021 年開設了 72 個。我們目前估計，到 2023 年底，我們將擁有大約 225 個社區。我們在第四季度交付了創紀錄的季度記錄 2,384 套房屋，交付了積壓訂單的 53%，而一年前為 43%。今年第四季度收入增長了 16%，達到 12 億美元的歷史季度記錄。

Our average closing price for the fourth quarter was $492,000, an 11% increase when compared to last year's fourth quarter average closing price of $443,000. And our backlog average sale price is $541,000, up 11% from a year ago.

我們第四季度的平均收盤價為 492,000 美元，與去年第四季度的平均收盤價 443,000 美元相比增長了 11%。我們積壓的平均售價為 541,000 美元，比一年前上漲 11%。

In the fourth quarter, we recorded a pretax charge of $18.4 million for impairments or $0.50 per diluted share. This charge consisted of $10.2 million of pre-acquisition land cost and $8.2 million of inventory valuation charges. Our gross margin exclusive of the impairment charge was 24.1% for the quarter, up 90 basis points year-over-year. And for the full year, our gross margins improved 140 basis points to 25.7% exclusive of the impairment charge.

在第四季度，我們記錄了 1840 萬美元的減值稅前費用或每股攤薄 0.50 美元。這筆費用包括 1020 萬美元的收購前土地成本和 820 萬美元的存貨估價費用。本季度扣除減值費用後的毛利率為 24.1%，同比增長 90 個基點。全年，我們的毛利率提高了 140 個基點，達到 25.7%，不包括減值費用。

Our fourth quarter and full year SG&A expenses as a percent of revenue were 9.1% and 9.8% of revenue, a 70 and 60 basis point improvement compared to the prior year, reflecting greater operating leverage and our lowest percentage ever. We constantly review our cost structure and due primarily to our lower year-end backlog, we reduced our head count by 8% in January of 2023.

我們第四季度和全年的 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比分別為 9.1% 和 9.8%，與去年同期相比分別提高了 70 和 60 個基點，反映出更高的運營槓桿和我們有史以來最低的百分比。我們不斷審查我們的成本結構，主要由於我們的年終積壓較少，我們在 2023 年 1 月將員工人數減少了 8%。

Interest expense decreased $400,000 for the quarter and increased slightly for the year. Interest incurred for the quarter was $9.2 million compared to $9.4 million a year ago. And for the year, interest incurred was $38 million versus $39 million last year.

本季度利息支出減少 400,000 美元，全年略有增加。本季度產生的利息為 920 萬美元，而一年前為 940 萬美元。這一年產生的利息為 3800 萬美元，而去年為 3900 萬美元。

We are pleased with our improved returns for the year. Our pretax income was 15.4% versus 13.6% last year, and our return on equity remained a strong 27%. During the fourth quarter, we generated $196 million of EBITDA compared to $155 million in last year's fourth quarter. And for the full year 2022, we generated $705 million of EBITDA, up 24% over the prior year, generated $184 million of cash flow from operations in 2022 compared to using $17 million in 2021.

我們對今年的回報率有所提高感到滿意。我們的稅前收入為 15.4%，而去年為 13.6%，股本回報率保持在 27% 的強勁水平。第四季度，我們產生了 1.96 億美元的 EBITDA，而去年第四季度為 1.55 億美元。在 2022 年全年，我們產生了 7.05 億美元的 EBITDA，比上一年增長 24%，2022 年產生了 1.84 億美元的運營現金流，而 2021 年使用了 1700 萬美元。

Our effective tax rate was 21% in the fourth quarter compared to 20% in last year's fourth quarter. Our annual effective rate for 2022 was 23% compared to 22% the year before. We expect 2023's effective tax rate to be around 24%.

我們第四季度的有效稅率為 21%，而去年第四季度為 20%。我們 2022 年的年有效率為 23%，而前一年為 22%。我們預計 2023 年的有效稅率約為 24%。

Our earnings per diluted share for the quarter increased 21% to $4.65 per share from $3.83 per share in last year's fourth quarter and increased 30% for the year to $17.24 per share from $13.28 per share last year. During 2022, we repurchased 1.2 million of our outstanding common shares for $55 million, leaving $93 million available under our current repurchase authorization. We did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter.

我們本季度的每股攤薄收益從去年第四季度的每股 3.83 美元增長 21% 至每股 4.65 美元，全年增長 30%，從去年的每股 13.28 美元增長至每股 17.24 美元。 2022 年，我們以 5500 萬美元的價格回購了 120 萬股流通在外的普通股，目前的回購授權還剩下 9300 萬美元。我們在第四季度沒有回購任何股票。

Now Derek Klutch will address our mortgage company results.

現在 Derek Klutch 將解決我們的抵押貸款公司的結果。

Thanks, Phil. In the fourth quarter, our mortgage and title operations achieved pretax income of $9.7 million, down $1.1 million from 2021 and revenue of $22.6 million, down 1% over last year. This was primarily a result of lower pricing margins and fewer loans closed and sold. For the year, pretax income was $39.3 million and revenue was $86.2 million.

謝謝，菲爾。第四季度，我們的抵押貸款和產權業務實現稅前收入 970 萬美元，比 2021 年下降 110 萬美元，收入為 2260 萬美元，比去年下降 1%。這主要是由於較低的定價利潤率以及關閉和出售的貸款較少。這一年，稅前收入為 3930 萬美元，收入為 8620 萬美元。

Loan-to-value on our first mortgages for the quarter was 82%, the same as 2021's fourth quarter. 79% of the loans closed in the fourth quarter were conventional and 21% were FHA or VA compared to 81% and 19%, respectively, for 2021's same period. Our average mortgage amount increased to $392,000 in 2022's fourth quarter compared to $360,000 in 2021. Loans originated in the quarter decreased 12% from $1,692 to $1,497, and the volume of loans sold decreased by 4%.

本季度我們第一筆抵押貸款的貸款價值比為 82%，與 2021 年第四季度相同。第四季度關閉的貸款中有 79% 是傳統貸款，21% 是 FHA 或 VA，而 2021 年同期分別為 81% 和 19%。我們的平均抵押貸款金額從 2021 年的 360,000 美元增加到 2022 年第四季度的 392,000 美元。本季度發放的貸款從 1,692 美元下降 12% 至 1,497 美元，售出貸款量下降 4%。

Our borrower profile remains solid with an average down payment of over 18% and for the quarter, the average borrower credit score on mortgages originated by M/I Financial was 7.46. Our mortgage operation captured 77% of our business in the quarter, a decrease from 83% in 2021's fourth quarter.

我們的借款人情況依然穩健，平均首付款超過 18%，本季度，M/I Financial 發起的抵押貸款的平均借款人信用評分為 7.46。我們的抵押貸款業務佔本季度業務的 77%，低於 2021 年第四季度的 83%。

Finally, we maintain 2 separate mortgage warehouse facilities that provide us with funding for our mortgage originations prior to the sale to investors. At December 31, we had a total of $246 million outstanding under these facilities, which expire in May and October this year. Both facilities are typical 364-day mortgage warehouse lines that we extend annually.

最後，我們維持 2 個獨立的抵押貸款倉庫設施，為我們在出售給投資者之前的抵押貸款發起提供資金。截至 12 月 31 日，我們在這些貸款下的未償貸款總額為 2.46 億美元，這些貸款將於今年 5 月和 10 月到期。這兩種設施都是我們每年延長的典型 364 天抵押貸款倉庫線。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Phil.

現在我會把電話轉回給 Phil。

Thanks, Derek. As far as the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with no borrowings under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Our total homebuilding inventory at year-end was $2.8 billion, an increase of $400 million above prior year levels. And we had 4,700 homes under construction at year-end, which includes our backlog and inventory homes. That is down 12% from 12/31/21's 5,300 houses.

謝謝，德里克。就資產負債表而言，我們在第四季度末沒有無擔保循環信貸額度下的借款。截至年底，我們的房屋建築總庫存為 28 億美元，比去年同期增加 4 億美元。截至年底，我們有 4,700 套房屋在建，其中包括積壓和庫存房屋。這比 21 年 12 月 31 日的 5,300 套房屋減少了 12%。

During 2022, we spent $341 million on land purchases and $496 million on land development for a total land spend of $837 million. This was down from $1.1 billion in 2021. In 2022, we purchased 8,000 lots compared to 2021's 17,000 lots. At 12/31/22, we had $625 million of raw land and land under development and $684 million of finished unsold lots. We own 8,500 unsold finished lots with an average cost of $80,000 per lot, and this average lot cost is 15% of our $541,000 backlog average sale price.

2022 年，我們在土地購買上花費了 3.41 億美元，在土地開發上花費了 4.96 億美元，土地總支出為 8.37 億美元。這低於 2021 年的 11 億美元。與 2021 年的 17,000 批相比，2022 年我們購買了 8,000 批。截至 22 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 6.25 億美元的未開發土地和開發中土地，以及 6.84 億美元的已完工未售出地塊。我們擁有 8,500 件未售出的成品拍品，每件平均成本為 80,000 美元，而這一平均拍品成本是我們 541,000 美元積壓訂單平均售價的 15%。

And at the end of the year, we had 485 completed inventory homes and 1,827 total inventory homes. Of the total inventory, 890 are in the North region and 937 are in the Southern region. And at 12/31/21, we had 99 completed inventory homes and 1,266 total inventory homes.

到年底，我們擁有 485 套已完工庫存房屋和 1,827 套庫存房屋。總庫存中，北部地區890家，南部地區937家。截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日，我們有 99 套已完工庫存房屋和 1,266 套庫存房屋。

This completes our presentation. We'll now open the call for any questions or comments.

這完成了我們的演示。我們現在將打開任何問題或評論的電話。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Jesse Lederman with Zelman & Associates.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Jesse Lederman。

Congrats on the strong results.

祝賀你取得了優異的成績。

Thanks, Jesse.

謝謝，傑西。

My first question pertains to the pricing side of the equation. You gave some good color on demand thus far into January and the step up from December. Can you talk a little bit about how your pricing philosophy is reacting to that demand? Or is the demand surging relative to December because of the pricing initiatives you've taken? In other words, has demand -- has pricing firmed up at all?

我的第一個問題與等式的定價方面有關。到目前為止，您在 1 月和從 12 月開始的升級中按需提供了一些不錯的顏色。你能談談你的定價理念是如何應對這種需求的嗎？還是由於您採取的定價措施，需求相對於 12 月激增？換句話說，需求——定價是否已經穩固？

First of all, I think there's no one thing. I think it's a combination of a number of things. I do think that there could be some group of buyers that are beginning to settle in with rates now hovering in that low to mid-6s.

首先，我認為沒有一件事。我認為這是多種因素的結合。我確實認為可能有一些買家開始安定下來，現在利率徘徊在 6 的低至中等水平。

Having said that, we have aggressively tried to generate traffic by selectively promoting bought-down interest rates not in every community or in every market, but in enough divisions that we can headline advertise it on our website. That has helped draw traffic and gotten people into the models.

話雖如此，我們已經積極嘗試通過有選擇地推廣買斷利率來產生流量，不是在每個社區或每個市場，而是在足夠多的部門，我們可以在我們的網站上刊登廣告。這有助於吸引流量並讓人們進入模型。

We have -- we do expect our margins to come down this year. We've historically said that this is a 21%, 22% business. And of course, we were running at 25% or 26% across the board for quite some time. It -- this is strictly intuition. It feels like things might be leveling off somewhat.

我們有 - 我們確實預計今年我們的利潤率會下降。我們過去曾說過，這是一個 21%、22% 的業務。當然，我們在很長一段時間內都以 25% 或 26% 的速度運行。它——這是嚴格的直覺。感覺事情可能會趨於平穩。

Every market is different. There appears to be more strength in certain of the Texas and Florida and Carolina markets than perhaps in some of the others. But as I said in my comments, even though 4 weeks is not a season make, it is a strong start to the year. We had averaged during the last 6 months of last year, you can do the math, about 390 sales a month from July through December, and we sold 633 in January. And some of our Midwestern markets posted very strong sales.

每個市場都是不同的。德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州和卡羅來納州的某些市場似乎比其他一些市場更強勁。但正如我在評論中所說，儘管 4 週不是一個賽季，但它是今年的一個良好開端。我們計算了去年最後 6 個月的平均值，從 7 月到 12 月，每個月的銷量約為 390 件，而我們在 1 月份售出了 633 件。我們的一些中西部市場銷售非常強勁。

And we saw a noticeable uptick in traffic, both website and foot traffic, beginning during the latter part, really, the second-or-so week of December through the rest of the month, and then it's picked up even more so in January and seems to be leveling off now at a level that produced 633 sales. It was down 18% from January of a year ago, but that was a runaway month in many respects where we were limiting sales in virtually every one of our communities, we all remember those days.

我們看到流量明顯增加，包括網站流量和人流量，從下半年開始，實際上是從 12 月的第二週左右到該月的剩餘時間，然後在 1 月和現在似乎穩定在產生 633 筆銷售額的水平。與一年前的 1 月相比下降了 18%，但從許多方面來看，那是一個失控的月份，我們幾乎限制了我們每個社區的銷售，我們都記得那些日子。

So -- and now across our near 200-or-so communities, I am happy to report that we're limiting sales in a couple of spots, but 90-plus percent of our communities, there's no limitation of any type. But it could be a little bit of a leveling off, but it's too soon to really know for sure. There's so much uncertainty. You know more about it probably than most. You follow all the macro data.

所以——現在在我們近 200 個左右的社區中，我很高興地報告我們正在限制幾個地方的銷售，但我們 90% 以上的社區沒有任何類型的限制。但這可能會有點趨於平穩，但現在確定還為時過早。有太多的不確定性。你可能比大多數人更了解它。你關注所有的宏觀數據。

And we'll see. I think we'll know when we know. But I do know this: we've got a great land position. We've got great communities. Our new communities that we opened in 2022 were performing very well. The strict underwriting, I think, has served us well and will continue to. The diversity of our product is an important ingredient in our company. We don't have all of our eggs in any one basket nor will we ever unless we have to, and we don't have to.

我們拭目以待。我想我們會知道什麼時候知道。但我確實知道這一點：我們擁有絕佳的地盤位置。我們有很棒的社區。我們在 2022 年開設的新社區表現非常好。我認為，嚴格的承保已經為我們提供了良好的服務，並將繼續如此。我們產品的多樣性是我們公司的重要組成部分。我們不會把所有的雞蛋都放在一個籃子裡，除非萬不得已，否則我們永遠不會，而且我們也不必這樣做。

We've got a very strong entry-level line of homes that we've talked about for many years called our Smart Series that continues to perform well. We've introduced some more affordable smart product in many of our markets. And we think we're getting better with managing online leads. We thought we were good a year ago. We're better today.

我們有一個非常強大的入門級住宅系列，我們已經討論了很多年，稱為我們的 Smart 系列，它繼續表現良好。我們在我們的許多市場推出了一些更實惠的智能產品。我們認為我們在管理在線線索方面做得更好。一年前我們認為我們很好。我們今天更好了。

And there's a lot of operational initiatives that are in place for this year from reducing cycle time, getting houses to the closing quicker, which could all help make this year look a little better than we might all have thought it was going to look here just even a month ago.

今年有很多運營計劃，包括縮短週期時間、更快地交房，這些都有助於讓今年看起來比我們想像的要好一些甚至一個月前。

That's all extremely helpful. Just a quick follow-up. When you said demand has kind of leveled off here, albeit at still high levels, especially relative to the second half of last year, how are you kind of reacting to that? Do you plan on continuing to push price because you want orders to continue to accelerate through the spring selling season to push price lower that is? Or are you kind of content with the...

這一切都非常有幫助。只是快速跟進。當你說這裡的需求有點趨於平穩時，儘管仍然處於高位，特別是相對於去年下半年，你對此有何反應？您是否計劃繼續推高價格，因為您希望訂單在春季銷售旺季繼續加速以推低價格？或者你是否滿足於...

Yes. Alan used to ask that question a lot. And the answer is it's a lot more art than science. Look, we try to get 2 to 3 on average. It's -- first of all, it's a subdivision business. Some communities you want more pace than 2 to 3. But whatever the desired pace is based upon the underwriting, we try to find that price point where we think we can hit that pace.

是的。艾倫經常問這個問題。答案是它更多的是藝術而不是科學。看，我們嘗試平均獲得 2 到 3 個。它是 - 首先，它是一個細分業務。有些社區你想要的速度超過 2 到 3。但無論所需的速度是基於承銷，我們都會嘗試找到我們認為可以達到該速度的價格點。

And we come into this year maybe a little bit more aggressive with our pricing to try to see if we can hit that. But I will tell you, we're very pleased with how January has ended up. Phil, you want to add something?

今年我們的定價可能會更激進一些，看看我們是否能達到這個目標。但我會告訴你，我們對 1 月份的結果感到非常滿意。菲爾，你想補充點什麼嗎？

Yes. One of the things also, as I said, we opened 100 new stores last year with about half of those opening in the second half when things started getting difficult. So not having to deal with any kind of big backlog and so forth. And we did focus on what's the right product, what's the right specification level. Let's get to the best price point we can, to be competitive and get decent pace in margin.

是的。其中一件事，正如我所說，我們去年開設了 100 家新店，其中大約一半是在下半年事情開始變得困難時開設的。因此不必處理任何類型的大量積壓等等。我們確實專注於什麼是正確的產品，什麼是正確的規格級別。讓我們盡可能地達到最好的價格點，以具有競爭力並獲得可觀的利潤率。

So with this many new stores as we had last year, plus opening a number of new stores this year, we think that gives us a pretty good opportunity also. So we're pretty excited about where we are.

因此，我們去年擁有這麼多新店，再加上今年開設了一些新店，我們認為這也給了我們一個很好的機會。所以我們對我們所處的位置感到非常興奮。

I appreciate that color. One more just on -- you mentioned 64% kind of your spec breakdown, and 64% are inventory homes versus 45% last year. Is that a conscious effort of yours to start specs maybe given the preference of the homebuyer and wanting a quicker close? And if so, can you talk about your plans for that moving forward? And do you see that moving even higher in the months ahead?

我很欣賞那種顏色。還有一個——你提到了 64% 的規格細分，64% 是庫存房屋，而去年這一比例為 45%。考慮到購房者的偏好並希望更快關閉，您是否有意識地開始製定規格？如果是這樣，你能談談你未來的計劃嗎？你認為未來幾個月會走得更高嗎？

Look, this goes back to what I said a minute ago. We're not an all-spec builder, and we're not an all-to-be-built builder. We never have been. We've always tried to have a mix. During -- as the demand ramped up at such a torrid pace through the better part of -- through all of 2021, frankly, and the first parts of '22, we increased our spec levels in every community to try to help us better manage deliveries and all of the subcontractor trade, pricing issues and so forth.

看，這又回到了我一分鐘前所說的話。我們不是全規格建造商，也不是全待建建造商。我們從來沒有。我們一直試圖混合。坦率地說，在 2021 年的大部分時間以及 22 年的前半部分，隨著需求以如此迅猛的速度增長，我們提高了每個社區的規格水平，以幫助我們更好地管理交付和所有分包商貿易、定價問題等。

On a go-forward basis, I think that percentage could move a little bit. My guess is that throughout the year, we'll be a little bit higher than 50% on the spec side and a little bit below 50% on the to-be-built side. There may be some intra-quarter volatility there.

在前進的基礎上，我認為這個百分比可能會有所變化。我的猜測是，全年我們將在規格方面略高於 50%，在待建方面略低於 50%。那裡可能存在一些季度內波動。

Where we were successful in buying up bought-down rates, the value of those bought-down rates was not only in drawing traffic, but you had -- those rates were only available with relatively quick closing. In other words, only on specs, we couldn't hold those rates for 6 or 7 or 8 months. So most of those bought-down rates had to close within 30, 60, maybe 90 days. So those were particularly suitable for specs.

在我們成功購買降價的地方，這些降價的價值不僅在於吸引流量，而且你有——這些價格只有在相對較快的收盤時才能獲得。換句話說，僅在規格上，我們不能將這些利率保持 6、7 或 8 個月。因此，大多數買斷利率必須在 30、60 甚至 90 天內關閉。所以那些特別適合規格。

Phil, I don't know if you want to add anything to those.

Phil，我不知道你是否想添加任何內容。

Yes. The last couple of years, we were kind of running specs in the 5, 6 per community with maybe 1 or 2 finished. And it happened for different reasons. With all supply chain issues, it kind of got to the point where you kind of had to get the house in the field by March or April to get it closed. Now we have seen a slight improvement in cycle time, and we're thinking we should get further improvement this year, which should help us. But it still takes a fair amount of time to get houses finished.

是的。在過去的幾年裡，我們在每個社區運行了 5、6 個規範，可能完成了 1 個或 2 個。它發生的原因各不相同。由於所有供應鏈問題，它有點到了你必須在三月或四月之前把房子送到現場才能關閉的地步。現在我們看到週期時間略有改善，我們認為今年應該進一步改善，這應該對我們有所幫助。但是完成房屋仍然需要相當長的時間。

Also, we're doing a few more attached townhouse communities. And by its nature, you get a few more specs there. And in general, the Smart Series, our most affordable offerings, we put a few more specs on the ground.

此外，我們正在做更多的附屬聯排別墅社區。從本質上講，您可以獲得更多規格。總的來說，Smart 系列是我們最實惠的產品，我們在實地增加了一些規格。

But interestingly, if you look at the last couple of quarters, margins really have not been very different at closing between specs and to-be-built. So we do want a good mix of business, and some customers do want to go through the selection process and go to our design center and personalize the home. Some people want to do that.

但有趣的是，如果你看看過去幾個季度，規格和待建之間的收盤利潤率確實沒有太大差異。所以我們確實想要一個很好的業務組合，一些客戶確實想通過選擇過程，然後去我們的設計中心對家進行個性化設計。有些人想這樣做。

So we try to have diversity in our price point. Our product offering, we think, that really helps us. But having a few more specs right now, we think that's really beneficial. We're managing it very closely. But like Bob said, I think you'll see us continue to have 7, 8, 9 specs per community as long as that's working.

所以我們試圖在我們的價格點上有多樣性。我們認為，我們提供的產品確實對我們有幫助。但是現在有更多的規格，我們認為這真的很有用。我們正在非常密切地管理它。但正如 Bob 所說，我想你會看到我們繼續為每個社區提供 7、8、9 個規範，只要它有效。

The next question comes from the line of Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

下一個問題來自 Jay McCanless 與 Wedbush 的對話。

I guess maybe on the cycle time question. So with the cycle time, what -- on your build order right now, where is that looking for completion time versus where it might have been a year ago?

我想也許是關於週期時間的問題。因此，對於週期時間，在您現在的構建訂單上，與一年前相比，尋找完成時間的位置在哪裡？

Great question. We expect to see cycle time improvement in almost all of our markets in 2023 versus 2022. We have started to see a little bit of that during the last part of 2022. It's different in every market because, frankly, some need to improve more than others.

很好的問題。與 2022 年相比，我們預計到 2023 年我們幾乎所有市場的周期時間都會有所改善。我們在 2022 年下半年開始看到了一點點。每個市場都不一樣，因為坦率地說，有些市場需要改善的不僅僅是其他的。

But my guess is that we'll see anywhere from 1 week to 4 weeks in all of our markets this year. And if the average is 2 or 3, that's -- we're going to try to get more. We're trying to get back to the pre-pandemic levels, and there's a lot of land mine. Some are on the land -- on the municipal side, some are on the supply chain side. Although a lot of that's really gotten -- it's not completely behind us, but a lot of it is.

但我的猜測是，今年我們所有的市場都會有 1 到 4 週的時間。如果平均值是 2 或 3，那就是——我們將嘗試獲得更多。我們正試圖回到大流行前的水平，而且有很多地雷。有些在土地上——在市政方面，有些在供應鏈方面。儘管其中很多已經真正實現了——它並沒有完全落後於我們，但其中很多已經實現了。

That's good to hear. What about any benefit from lumber prices coming in? And as part of that, is it likely that the gross margin in the front half of the year is going to be probably at the low end of that range that you talked about just because you're having to resell some of these canceled homes?

聽起來還不錯。木材價格的上漲有什麼好處？作為其中的一部分，今年上半年的毛利率是否可能會處於您談到的那個範圍的低端，只是因為您不得不轉售其中一些被取消的房屋？

Just a couple of things, Jay. When you look at the fourth quarter compared to the year ago from that, our fourth quarter sticks and bricks were down a couple of percent overall. We are expecting -- don't have it in our numbers or anything, but we are expecting costs to come down a little bit this year.

只是幾件事，傑伊。當你看第四季度與去年同期相比時，我們的第四季度整體下降了幾個百分點。我們期待 - 不要在我們的數字或任何東西中有它，但我們預計今年成本會有所下降。

When you look at lumber coming down, we really won't be getting any benefit of that towards -- until like second- and third-type quarter. As far as margins, our margins did come down from the fourth quarter versus the third. Bob mentioned before, we kind of believe the way the business kind of is, is 2021-'22. We kind of expect margins to be under pressure this year. But having said that, we still expect to have decent margins, but we do expect margins to be more under pressure.

當你看到木材下降時，我們真的不會從中獲得任何好處——直到像第二和第三類型的季度。就利潤率而言，我們的利潤率確實比第四季度和第三季度有所下降。鮑勃之前提到過，我們有點相信商業的方式是 2021-'22。我們預計今年的利潤率將面臨壓力。但話雖如此，我們仍然希望獲得可觀的利潤率，但我們確實預計利潤率會面臨更大的壓力。

And then in terms of getting those cancellations resold, has that -- any issues with that? Or has that been a pretty orderly process?

然後就讓這些取消轉售而言，這有什麼問題嗎？或者這是一個非常有序的過程？

It's actually been a pretty orderly process. I mean we manage the whole thing as far as what we have in the field. I said in my remarks, we had 4,700 homes in the field at the end of the year, down 12% from a year ago. Depending on the product price point, we may need to get the house in the field by April to get it closed this year. Some products are June, July. So that's just a process you manage overall, and every subdivision is a little bit different.

這實際上是一個非常有序的過程。我的意思是，就我們在該領域所擁有的而言，我們可以管理整個事情。我在發言中說過，到年底，我們在該領域擁有 4,700 套房屋，比一年前下降了 12%。根據產品價格點，我們可能需要在 4 月之前把房子拿到現場才能在今年關閉。有些產品是六月，七月。所以這只是你整體管理的一個過程，每個細分都有點不同。

Like Bob said, being able to improve cycle time by a couple of weeks really, really helps us. But we think we're doing a pretty good job at managing the whole flow of sales, construction. We do keep in every division a certain amount of permit-ready specs. So if we do have an uptick in sales, we can put a few more specs out there. That's just part of managing the business.

正如 Bob 所說，能夠將周期時間縮短幾週真的對我們很有幫助。但我們認為我們在管理整個銷售、施工流程方面做得很好。我們確實在每個部門都保留了一定數量的許可就緒規格。因此，如果我們的銷量確實有所上升，我們可以提供更多規格。這只是管理業務的一部分。

Right. What -- and then on the land side, are you seeing any -- maybe a little softer pricing? Or is pricing in any areas retreated? Just wondering if some of the lots you may have walked away from, you're getting to look at them at potentially a little bit better price.

正確的。什麼 - 然後在陸地方面，你看到任何 - 可能有點軟定價？還是某些地區的定價有所回落？只是想知道您是否可能已經離開了一些地段，您將以可能稍微優惠的價格查看它們。

That's very market- and submarket-dependent. What you're seeing -- well, let me start with this, when things get tough, a lot gets revealed, as they say in life. And one thing that gets particularly revealed in our business is whether or not A locations are really A locations. Because when things get difficult, you really find out what your A locations are because they still perform at a pretty darn good level.

這非常依賴於市場和子市場。你所看到的——嗯，讓我從這個開始，當事情變得艱難時，很多事情都會暴露出來，正如他們在生活中所說的那樣。在我們的業務中特別顯露的一件事是 A 地點是否真的是 A 地點。因為當事情變得困難時，你真的會發現你的 A 位置是什麼，因為它們的表現仍然非常好。

All those other deals that you saw were As or A-s or probably Cs. And so what you've seen, and you've seen this with us and I suspect from others, most of the stuff that people are walking away from are deals that really don't pencil well or at least its precede will not pencil well under current conditions. I think you may see a little relief on those because no one is going to buy it.

你看到的所有其他交易都是 As 或 A-s 或者可能是 Cs。所以你所看到的，你已經和我們一起看到了這一點，我懷疑從其他人那裡，人們正在離開的大多數東西都是真正不能很好地表達出來的交易，或者至少它的先行者不會很好地表達出來在當前條件下。我想你可能會看到一些鬆了一口氣，因為沒有人會買它。

And there's an anecdotal -- there's a small example here or there of some moderation or more terms. You don't have to close and -- you don't have to take it down over 3 years. You can take it down over 5 years, and there's no escalator. That to me is a relaxation of terms. So we're starting to see a few examples of that.

還有一個軼事——這里或那裡有一個關於一些節製或更多條款的小例子。你不必關閉並且 - 你不必在 3 年內將其關閉。你可以在 5 年內拆除它，而且沒有自動扶梯。這對我來說是一種放寬條件。所以我們開始看到一些這樣的例子。

But for the sites that we believe and our competitors believe raise, I think they'll be very competitive. But for the stuff that's the more -- normally, B kind of locations, I think that there may be some advantages there. But we'll just have to see how that plays out.

但對於我們相信和我們的競爭對手認為會提高的網站，我認為它們將非常有競爭力。但是對於更多的東西——通常是 B 類位置，我認為那裡可能有一些優勢。但我們只需要看看結果如何。

We have a great land position. we don't need to buy a whole lot. We're very well positioned this year, next and the following year. The vintage of almost everything we have on our books is a good vintage, by that I mean I like when we bought it.

我們擁有優越的土地地位。我們不需要買很多。我們在今年、明年和下一年都處於非常有利的位置。我們書上幾乎所有的東西都是好年份，我的意思是我喜歡我們買的時候。

And we'll watch and wait. And we've always been able to get -- to generate a good return paying retail, as they say. And so we don't have to go out and buy a whole lot now. But we're looking at things. And if there's bargains out there, we're going to jump all over them. Our financial condition is the strongest it's ever been. Our debt levels -- we have 0 borrowings on our bank line, and we're sitting on a lot of cash.

我們會拭目以待。正如他們所說，我們一直能夠獲得 - 產生良好的回報零售。所以我們現在不必出去買一大堆。但我們正在看事情。如果那裡有便宜貨，我們將跳過它們。我們的財務狀況是有史以來最好的。我們的債務水平——我們的銀行貸款為 0，而且我們坐擁大量現金。

We own 25,000 lots. And we always talk about we like to own a 2- to 3-year supply based on current run rate. And right now, we're a little bit above that. But we feel really good about those 25,000 lots. Of course, we have 17,000 behind that.

我們擁有 25,000 塊土地。我們總是說我們喜歡根據當前運行率擁有 2 到 3 年的供應。而現在，我們略高於此。但我們對這 25,000 件拍品感覺非常好。當然，我們後面還有 17,000。

We did, the last half of last year, dramatically cut back what we purchased. We were careful on how many developed lots we put on the ground. We did have, as I said, about $10 million of walkaway cost. A number of those deals wasn't a contract issue. It's just we don't think those deals are going to work under current terms. So we are renegotiating certain things, but we're really in good shape.

去年下半年，我們確實大幅削減了採購量。我們對我們在地面上放置了多少已開發地段很謹慎。正如我所說，我們確實有大約 1000 萬美元的無人值守成本。其中一些交易不是合同問題。只是我們認為這些交易在當前條款下不會奏效。所以我們正在重新談判某些事情，但我們確實處於良好狀態。

We don't have any land banking, a lot of difficult agreements to work through. When you look at the 17,000 lots we have off the books, the risk dollars are like $75 million. So that's not a big number. So we very much like the land position that we have. Don't feel like we need to do much of anything. But certain markets, we are looking. There's always issues here and there, but we feel really good about our land position.

我們沒有任何土地儲備，有很多困難的協議需要解決。當您查看我們賬外的 17,000 手時，風險資金約為 7500 萬美元。所以這不是一個大數字。所以我們非常喜歡我們擁有的土地位置。不要覺得我們需要做很多事情。但我們正在尋找某些市場。到處都有問題，但我們對自己的土地地位感覺非常好。

Got it. And then my last question is on Smart Series. Just maybe talk about where that is as a percentage of orders or closings now and what the goal might be for the next couple of years.

知道了。然後我的最後一個問題是關於智能係列的。也許只是談談現在訂單或關閉的百分比以及未來幾年的目標是什麼。

Yes. For sure. A year ago, I think we were in the low 40s. The most recent quarter, I think our Smart Series was in the low 50s. So it jumped up quite a bit. During these difficult times, we disproportionately sold even more than we thought, Smart Series homes. My guess is for this year, it will settle in at that 50% to 55%. And we're very comfortable with it being there.

是的。一定。一年前，我認為我們還不到 40 歲。最近一個季度，我認為我們的 Smart 系列處於 50 年代的低位。所以漲了不少。在這些困難時期，我們不成比例地賣出了比我們想像的還要多的 Smart 系列房屋。我的猜測是今年，它將穩定在 50% 到 55% 之間。我們對它的存在感到非常滿意。

We've put out some new Smart Series plans. We've got some new community openings this year that will be -- that are fresh off the shelf that we're really excited to get open in the -- during the first few months of the year in a number of our markets. We've got some narrower lots, Smart Series stuff coming on in select markets. So yes, it's a big part of our strategy on a go-forward basis.

我們推出了一些新的智能係列計劃。今年我們有一些新的社區開放，這些開放將是 - 這些都是現成的，我們真的很高興能夠在今年的頭幾個月在我們的一些市場開放。我們在特定市場推出了一些更窄的 Smart 系列產品。所以是的，這是我們未來戰略的重要組成部分。

It's not the only thing we do, but it's something that we think we've -- even though we were a little -- we wish we had started earlier, we launched it in 2016, and it's been a huge plus for the company.

這不是我們做的唯一事情，但這是我們認為我們已經做的事情——儘管我們還很小——我們希望我們早點開始，我們在 2016 年推出了它，這對公司來說是一個巨大的優勢。

(Operator Instructions) There are no additional questions at this time. I will pass it back to the management team for any further remarks.

（操作員說明）目前沒有其他問題。我會把它傳回給管理團隊，以徵求任何進一步的意見。

Thank you very much for joining us. Look forward to talking to you next quarter.

非常感謝您加入我們。期待下個季度與您交談。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝。您現在可以斷開線路。