Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Manulife Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results conference call.

    感謝您的耐心等待。這裡是會議接線生。歡迎參加宏利金融集團2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。

  • The conference is being recorded.

    會議正在錄影。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Hung Ko, Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給全球財務及投資者關係主管洪高先生。請繼續。

  • Hung Ko - Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

    Hung Ko - Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Welcome to Manulife’s earnings conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial and operating results. Our earnings materials, including the webcast slides for today's call, are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at manulife.com.

    謝謝。歡迎參加宏利金融的獲利電話會議,我們將討論2025年第四季和全年的財務和營運表現。我們的收益資料,包括今天電話會議的網路直播幻燈片,可在我們網站 manulife.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

  • Before we start, please refer to slide 2 for a caution on forward-looking statements and slide 41 for a note on the non-GAAP and other financial measures used in this presentation. Please note that certain material factors or assumptions are applied in making forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from what is stated.

    在開始之前,請參閱第 2 頁投影片,以了解有關前瞻性陳述的注意事項,並參閱第 41 頁投影片,以了解有關本簡報中使用的非 GAAP 和其他財務指標的說明。請注意,在做出前瞻性陳述時,會應用某些重要因素或假設,實際結果可能與所述內容有重大差異。

  • Turning to slide 4, we'll begin today's presentation with Phil Witherington, our President and Chief Executive Officer, who will provide highlights of our full-year 2025 results and the progress made toward our new and elevated strategic priorities.

    接下來請看第 4 張投影片,我們將從總裁兼執行長 Phil Witherington 的演講開始,他將重點介紹我們 2025 年全年業績以及我們在實現新的、更高的策略重點方面取得的進展。

  • Colin Simpson, our Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the company's financial and operating results in more detail.

    我們的財務長科林辛普森將更詳細地討論公司的財務和營運表現。

  • After the prepared remarks, we move to the live Q&A portion of the call.

    在準備好的演講結束後,我們將進入電話會議的現場問答環節。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Phil.

    接下來,我想把電話交給菲爾。

  • Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Hung, and thank you everyone for joining us today.

    謝謝洪,也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。

  • 2025 was a defining year for Manulife. We delivered strong financial results, announced our refreshed enterprise strategy to shape Manulife's next chapter of growth, and are laser-focused on executing against our vision through targeted strategic investments. While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains, we're confident that the diversified nature of our business positions us well to navigate the current environment and capitalize on the opportunities ahead. So, let's start with our 2025 financial results which we announced yesterday.

    2025年是宏利金融具有里程碑意義的一年。我們取得了強勁的財務業績,宣布了更新後的企業策略,以塑造宏利金融的下一個成長篇章,並將透過有針對性的策略投資,全力以赴地實現我們的願景。儘管宏觀經濟和地緣政治仍存在不確定性,但我們相信,我們業務的多元化性質使我們能夠很好地應對當前環境並抓住未來的機會。那麼,讓我們先從昨天公佈的2025年財務業績開始。

  • We delivered strong topline results with new business CSM growth exceeding 20% in each insurance segment, contributing to a double-digit growth in our CSM balance and supporting our future earnings potential. Despite experiencing net outflows in the second half of 2025, Global WAM continues to deliver strong margins and core earnings growth. The strong results in Global WAM, combined with the double-digit earnings growth in Asia, contributed to our record core earnings this year. Together with the benefit of continued share buybacks, we delivered 8% Core EPS growth. We also continued to generate attractive returns with Core ROE expanding 30 basis points from the prior year, and we're tracking well towards our 2027 target of 18%-plus.

    我們取得了強勁的營收業績,每個保險領域的新業務客戶成功率成長超過 20%,從而實現了客戶成功率餘額的兩位數成長,並為我們未來的獲利潛力提供了支持。儘管在 2025 年下半年出現淨資金流出,Global WAM 仍持續保持強勁的利潤率和核心獲利成長。全球 WAM 業務的強勁表現,加上亞洲地區兩位數的獲利成長,促成了我們今年創紀錄的核心獲利。加上持續的股票回購,我們的核心每股收益成長了 8%。我們也持續獲得可觀的回報,核心 ROE 比前一年成長了 30 個基點,我們正朝著 2027 年 18% 以上的目標穩步邁進。

  • Moving to our balance sheet, we generated $6.4 billion of remittances this year and returned nearly $5.5 billion of capital to shareholders. Our LICAT ratio of 136% and leverage ratio of 23.9% provide significant financial flexibility; and I'm pleased to share that we announced a 10% increase in our quarterly common share dividend.

    從資產負債表來看,我們今年產生了 64 億美元的匯款,並向股東返還了近 55 億美元的資本。我們的LICAT比率為136%,槓桿比率為23.9%,這為我們提供了相當大的財務彈性;我很高興地宣布,我們將季度普通股股息提高10%。

  • In addition, we have received OSFI approval for a new NCIB program, which will allow us to repurchase up to 42 million shares or approximately 2.5% of issued and outstanding common shares, highlighting our continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders. We plan to commence buybacks under this new program in late February, subject to approval by the Toronto Stock Exchange.

    此外,我們已獲得加拿大金融機構監管辦公室 (OSFI) 的批准,推出一項新的 NCIB 計劃,該計劃將允許我們回購至多 4,200 萬股,約佔已發行和流通普通股的 2.5%,這凸顯了我們持續致力於向股東返還資本的承諾。我們計劃在2月下旬開始根據這項新計畫進行股票回購,但需獲得多倫多證券交易所的批准。

  • Moving on to slide 7.

    接下來是第7張投影片。

  • In November, we introduced our refreshed enterprise strategy, which builds on our strengths, is growth-focused, and is anchored in our ambition to be the number one choice for customers. There is tremendous enthusiasm across the company as we execute on our new and elevated strategic priorities, which provide logical continuity as we progress in our new chapter with refreshed ambition. As a result, we've already made meaningful progress in 2025.

    11 月,我們推出了更新的企業策略,該策略以我們的優勢為基礎,以成長為重點,並以成為客戶首選為目標。公司上下都充滿熱情地執行我們新的、更高層次的策略重點,這為我們以煥然一新的雄心壯志開啟新篇章提供了合乎邏輯的延續性。因此,我們在 2025 年已經取得了實質進展。

  • Starting with our winning team and culture, our world-class talent is one of our greatest strengths; and this year marked our sixth consecutive year of top quartile employee engagement. I'm encouraged by the energy and commitment of our colleagues around the world, who've embraced our ambition to be the number one choice for customers. Together, we will continue to bring focused execution and innovation to the work ahead. And, as we drive high-quality sustainable growth, we will maintain a balanced, diversified business model. This year, we've made strategic investments, both organically and inorganically, to further strengthen our portfolio.

    從我們優秀的團隊和企業文化開始,我們世界一流的人才就是我們最大的優勢之一;今年是我們連續第六年員工敬業度位居前四分之一。世界各地的同事們展現出的活力和奉獻精神令我深受鼓舞,他們與我們攜手並進,共同致力於成為客戶的首選。我們將攜手並進,繼續以專注的執行力和創新精神投入未來的工作。而且,在推動高品質永續成長的同時,我們將保持平衡、多元化的商業模式。今年,我們透過內部成長和外部收購等策略性投資,進一步加強了我們的投資組合。

  • We acquired Comvest Credit Partners, announced a joint venture to enter the India life insurance market, and entered into an agreement to acquire Schroders Indonesia, with the latter two subject to regulatory approval. We also became the first international life insurer to establish an office in the Dubai International Financial Center, dedicated to advising on and arranging life insurance solutions for high-net-worth customers. And, we've expanded our customer solutions, including a new indexed universal life offering in the U.S., while in Canada, we launched a simplified specialized lending suite of products in Manulife Bank.

    我們收購了 Comvest Credit Partners,宣布成立合資企業進軍印度人壽保險市場,並達成協議收購 Schroders Indonesia,後兩項收購均需獲得監管部門批准。我們也成為第一家在杜拜國際金融中心設立辦事處的國際人壽保險公司,致力於為高淨值客戶提供人壽保險解決方案的諮詢和安排服務。此外,我們也擴展了客戶解決方案,包括在美國推出新的指數型萬能壽險產品;同時,在加拿大,我們在宏利銀行推出了一套簡化的專業貸款產品。

  • As Colin will highlight, the benefit of a diversified portfolio was evident in our fourth quarter results and I expect our diversification to serve us well amidst rising global uncertainty.

    正如科林將要強調的那樣,多元化投資組合的好處在我們第四季的業績中顯而易見,我預計在全球不確定性日益加劇的情況下,我們的多元化將對我們大有裨益。

  • Onto slide 8 and our focus on being the most trusted partner in health, wealth, and financial well-being. We took meaningful steps to further empower our customers this year, including a significant milestone in our ambition to be the health partner of choice in Asia. Through a strategic collaboration in Hong Kong with Bupa International, we will offer greater choice and sustainable healthcare solutions that empower individuals and communities to live healthier and more fulfilling lives.

    接下來是第 8 張投影片,我們將重點放在如何成為健康、財富和財務福祉領域最值得信賴的合作夥伴。今年,我們採取了切實有效的措施來進一步賦能我們的客戶,其中包括在成為亞洲首選健康合作夥伴的目標上取得了重大里程碑式的進展。透過與香港保柏國際的策略合作,我們將提供更多選擇和永續的醫療保健解決方案,使個人和社區能夠過上更健康、更充實的生活。

  • In Canada, we became the first insurer to offer access to GRAIL's Galleri multi-cancer early detection test, supporting earlier detection and longevity for our customers. And, in the U.S., we're providing additional resources and offerings to eligible U.S. customers to proactively manage their health and wellness. These actions deliver measurable benefits for customers while generating value for Manulife and we're proud to be a leader in this space.

    在加拿大,我們成為第一家提供 GRAIL Galleri 多癌種早期檢測測試的保險公司,幫助我們的客戶更早發現癌症並延長壽命。而且,在美國,我們正在為符合條件的美國客戶提供額外的資源和產品,以主動管理他們的健康和福祉。這些舉措為客戶帶來了可衡量的利益,同時也為宏利創造了價值,我們很自豪能成為這一領域的領導者。

  • We also continued to invest to make it easier for customers to buy, and advisors to sell, our solutions. We renewed our bancassurance partnership with China Bank in the Philippines, extending the exclusive partnership to 2039. In Singapore, we leveraged our digital capabilities to enhance our Manulife iFUNDS platform. Through using a single platform and leveraging AI-powered analytics, advisors can deliver more personalized and insightful financial guidance. And, in the U.S., we expanded our wholesaling team to accelerate our penetration into the high-net-worth and mass-affluent markets. By expanding our reach and scaling our digital and AI capabilities, we can more effectively reach our customers and enhance their experience.

    我們也持續投資,讓客戶更容易購買我們的解決方案,也讓顧問更容易銷售我們的解決方案。我們與中國銀行在菲律賓續簽了銀行保險合作關係,將獨家合作關係延長至 2039 年。在新加坡,我們利用自身的數位化能力來增強我們的宏利iFUNDS平台。透過使用單一平台並利用人工智慧驅動的分析,顧問可以提供更個人化、更有洞察力的財務指導。在美國,我們擴大了批發團隊,以加快我們向高淨值和大眾富裕市場的滲透。透過擴大我們的覆蓋範圍並提升我們的數位化和人工智慧能力,我們可以更有效地觸及我們的客戶並提升他們的體驗。

  • Finally, over to slide 9.

    最後,請看第9張投影片。

  • Becoming an AI-powered organization is core to delivering on our ambitions, and, while we've been an early adopter of AI and built the underlying infrastructure necessary to support our vision, it's very important that we sustain our leadership position. We're investing with discipline and a clear focus on areas where AI can be deployed at scale, and further improve our efficiency, enhance our customer and colleague experiences, and support sustainable growth.

    成為人工智慧驅動型組織是實現我們雄心壯志的核心,雖然我們一直是人工智慧的早期採用者,並建立了支持我們願景所需的基礎架構,但保持我們的領先地位至關重要。我們秉持嚴謹的態度進行投資,明確聚焦於人工智慧可以大規模部署的領域,以進一步提高效率,提升客戶和同事的體驗,並支持永續成長。

  • In 2025, we ranked first among global life insurers for AI maturity by Evident, and achieved 30% of the $1-billion-plus of AI enterprise value generation by 2027. To drive measurable outcomes, we're concentrating on core focus areas where AI can make the greatest difference for Manulife, and we're already deploying initiatives across businesses and geographies to continue to drive value.

    2025 年,我們在 Evident 的人工智慧成熟度排名中位列全球人壽保險公司第一,到 2027 年,我們實現了 10 億美元以上人工智慧企業價值創造的 30%。為了取得可衡量的成果,我們專注於人工智慧能夠為宏利帶來最大改變的核心領域,並且我們已經在各個業務部門和地區部署相關舉措,以繼續創造價值。

  • Across the organization, we're deploying virtual assistants that create efficiencies while equipping employees and advisors with deeper insights, more personalized outreach, and instant product guidance -- strengthening the quality and consistency of customer interactions.

    在整個組織中,我們正在部署虛擬助手,以提高效率,同時為員工和顧問提供更深入的見解、更個人化的溝通和即時的產品指導,從而增強客戶互動的品質和一致性。

  • In underwriting, AI is accelerating decision making by automating data analysis, enabling faster and more accurate assessments while maintaining strong risk discipline; and, we're prioritizing AI solutions that remove manual transactions, driving measurable improvements in efficiency and operational outcomes.

    在核保方面,人工智慧透過自動化數據分析來加速決策,從而實現更快、更準確的評估,同時保持嚴格的風險控制;並且,我們正在優先考慮能夠消除人工交易的人工智慧解決方案,從而在效率和營運成果方面取得可衡量的改進。

  • Within distribution, AI is enhancing client engagement through tailored sales support, leading to improved sales close ratios and outcomes. We're strengthening our internal productivity by equipping our global technology teams with modern engineering tools, helping us build better solutions, and faster. And we're also exploring how AI can help close the advice access gap and support more meaningful ongoing investor engagement at scale.

    在分銷領域,人工智慧透過量身定制的銷售支援來增強客戶互動,從而提高銷售成交率和績效。我們正在透過為全球技術團隊配備現代化的工程工具來增強內部生產力,幫助我們更快地建立更好的解決方案。我們也正在探索人工智慧如何幫助縮小諮詢服務取得的差距,並大規模地支持更有意義的持續投資者參與。

  • Moving forward, we're progressing towards a proprietary Agentic AI platform that will make it easier to manage and coordinate AI tools across the company, allowing us to scale AI even faster and more consistently while ensuring a robust governance process. Overall, these are high-impact areas that reduce friction, support long-term growth, and will enable us to deliver on our 2027 and medium-term targets.

    展望未來,我們將朝著專有的 Agentic AI 平台邁進,這將使管理和協調公司內部的 AI 工具變得更加容易,使我們能夠更快、更穩定地擴展 AI,同時確保強大的治理流程。總體而言,這些都是影響深遠的領域,可以減少摩擦,支持長期成長,並使我們能夠實現 2027 年和中期目標。

  • In closing, I am thrilled with the progress we've made in 2025. We've delivered strong financial results and are already making meaningful strides against our refreshed strategy. As we begin 2026, we're executing from a position of strength with clear momentum and confidence in our ability to achieve our 2027 targets, while generating high-quality sustainable growth for all our stakeholders for the long-term.

    最後,我對我們在 2025 年的進展感到非常興奮。我們取得了強勁的財務業績,並且在落實更新後的策略方面已經取得了實質進展。2026 年伊始,我們憑藉著強勁的勢頭和十足的信心,朝著 2027 年的目標穩步邁進,同時為所有利害關係人創造高品質的永續長期成長。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to Colin to discuss our results in more detail. Colin.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給科林,讓他更詳細地討論我們的研究結果。科林。

  • Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

    Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Phil, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,菲爾,大家早安。

  • 2025 was a fantastic year for Manulife as we delivered another year of strong financial and operational performance. Let me take a moment to walk you through the quarter's results before we open the line for Q&A.

    2025 年對宏利來說是輝煌的一年,我們又一年取得了強勁的財務和營運表現。在正式開始問答環節之前,請容許我花一點時間向大家介紹本季的業績。

  • Let's begin with our top-line results on slide 11.

    讓我們先來看看第 11 頁的主要結果。

  • We generated strong growth in new business CSM, reflecting more favorable business mix and margin improvements. This marked our sixth consecutive quarter in which new business CSM growth exceeded 20%, a testament to the strength of our balanced and globally diverse business profile. APE sales for the quarter were largely in line with the prior year.

    我們在新業務 CSM 方面實現了強勁成長,這反映了更有利的業務組合和利潤率的提高。這標誌著我們連續第六個季度新業務客戶成功率成長超過 20%,證明了我們均衡且全球多元化的業務格局的實力。本季APE銷售額與上年同期基本持平。

  • Global WAM saw net outflows of $9.5 billion, reflecting several large Retirement plan redemptions in the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, in Canada, as well as net outflows in our North American Retail business. This was partially offset by strong Institutional flows, including contributions from CQS and Comvest. The redemptions in our U.S. Retirement business reflect seasonally higher planned redemptions and higher participant withdrawals as market strength has given rise to higher customer balances. Our Retail business saw continued pressure on North American intermediary and Canada wealth, though I’d highlight our U.S. Retail business performed well relative to peers in what was a challenging quarter for active fund managers in the industry.

    全球 WAM 淨流出 95 億美元,反映出美國幾項大型退休計畫的贖回,以及在較小程度上加拿大的贖回,還有我們北美零售業務的淨流出。強勁的機構資金流入部分抵消了這一影響,其中包括 CQS 和 Comvest 的資金投入。我們美國退休業務的贖回反映了季節性較高的計劃贖回和較高的參與者提款,因為市場強勁導致客戶餘額增加。我們的零售業務在北美中介機構和加拿大財富管理領域持續面臨壓力,不過我要強調的是,在業內主動型基金經理面臨挑戰的這一季度,我們的美國零售業務相對於同業表現良好。

  • Moving on to slide 12.

    接下來是第12張投影片。

  • I'd like to highlight some of the key earnings drivers, comparing them to the same period last year. We continued to see strong growth in our insurance businesses in Asia and Canada, driving a higher insurance service result. We generated positive overall insurance experience this quarter, including a release of P&C provisions from prior year events, as well as strong gains in Canada.

    我想重點介紹一些主要的獲利驅動因素,並與去年同期進行比較。我們在亞洲和加拿大的保險業務持續強勁成長,從而推動了保險服務業績的提升。本季度我們取得了積極的整體保險業績,包括釋放了上一年事件產生的財產和意外傷害準備金,以及在加拿大取得了強勁的增長。

  • Though positive, total insurance experience was less favorable than the prior year, largely reflecting unfavorable U.S. life claims experience. Our investment results decreased a modest 5%, mainly driven by lower investment spreads. In the bottom half of the table, you will see that Global WAM reported solid pre-tax core earnings growth of 8% this quarter, supported by strong AUMA growth and margin expansion, though this was partially offset by the transition to eMPF in Hong Kong.

    儘管總體而言是積極的,但保險業的整體業績不如上一年,這主要反映了美國人壽保險理賠業績不佳。我們的投資績效小幅下降了 5%,主要原因是投資利差降低。在表格的下半部分,您可以看到,Global WAM 本季度稅前核心盈利實現了 8% 的穩健增長,這得益於 AUMA 的強勁增長和利潤率的擴張,儘管香港向 eMPF 過渡在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。

  • Turning to slide 13.

    翻到第13張幻燈片。

  • Core EPS increased 9% from the prior quarter, as we continued to grow core earnings and actively buy back shares. We reported $1.5 billion of net income this quarter, which reflects unfavorable market experience, largely driven by a charge of $232 million in our ALDA portfolio, primarily due to lower-than-expected returns from infrastructure, private equity, and real estate. We also reported a $162 million loss from hedge accounting ineffectiveness, primarily due to swap spread widening in Canada and, to a lesser extent, derivatives without hedge accounting.

    由於我們持續提高核心獲利並積極回購股票,核心每股盈餘較上一季成長了 9%。本季我們報告淨收入為 15 億美元,這反映了不利的市場環境,主要是由於 ALDA 投資組合中 2.32 億美元的支出,這主要是由於基礎設施、私募股權和房地產的回報低於預期。我們還報告稱,由於套期會計無效,造成了 1.62 億美元的損失,這主要是由於加拿大掉期利差擴大,其次是由於沒有套期會計的衍生性商品交易。

  • Moving to the segment results, we'll start with Asia on slide 14.

    接下來來看細分市場的結果,我們將從第 14 頁的亞洲開始。

  • APE sales decreased by a modest 3% from the prior year as double-digit growth in Japan and Asia Other was more than offset by lower sales in Hong Kong. While we expected some moderation in Hong Kong, given a strong prior year comparative, we also saw anticipated pressure in the broker channel in the fourth quarter as distributors transitioned to new regulations. Even so, we remain confident in the outlook supported by the strength of our proprietary distribution channels. Despite softer volume, Asia's new business CSM and new business value delivered strong double-digit growth on the back of a more favorable business mix. As such, NBV margin expanded by 5.5 percentage points from the prior year to 41.2%. These top-line results demonstrate both the strength and diversity of our business in Asia.

    由於日本和亞洲其他地區的兩位數成長被香港地區銷售額的下降所抵消,APE 銷售額較上年小幅下降了 3%。儘管我們預期香港市場將因去年同期強勁的基數而有所緩和,但我們也預見到第四季度經紀管道將面臨預期的壓力,因為分銷商正在過渡到新的監管規定。即便如此,憑藉我們強大的自主分銷管道,我們對前景依然充滿信心。儘管業務量有所下降,但得益於更有利的業務組合,亞洲新業務客戶成功率和新業務價值實現了強勁的兩位數成長。因此,NBV利潤率比前一年成長了5.5個百分點,達到41.2%。這些主要業績反映了我們在亞洲業務的實力和多樣性。

  • In fact, when you look at our full year new business CSM growth, we saw greater than 20% growth in multiple markets including Hong Kong, Japan, mainland China, and Singapore. Asia core earnings in the quarter were even stronger, increasing 24% year-over-year as we benefited from continued business growth and the net favorable impact of the basis change last quarter.

    事實上,從我們全年的新業務客戶成功經理 (CSM) 成長情況來看,我們在包括香港、日本、中國大陸和新加坡在內的多個市場實現了超過 20% 的成長。本季亞洲核心獲利表現更為強勁,年增 24%,這得益於業務的持續成長以及上季基數變化帶來的淨有利影響。

  • Over to Global WAM on slide 15.

    接下來請看第 15 張投影片,了解全球 WAM。

  • We maintained our growth momentum in Global WAM, delivering a solid 7% year-over-year increase in core earnings. This was supported by a higher average AUMA, the addition of Comvest Credit Partners, and sustained expense discipline. This was partially offset by lower earnings as a result of our transition to the new eMPF platform in Hong Kong in November. Net outflows were elevated this quarter, reaching $9.5 billion as I noted earlier. Our gross flows this quarter, up 15% from the prior year to $50 billion, continued to be strong, supported by growth across each business line. And our core EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points from the prior year to 29.2% -- a strong result given the eMPF transition.

    我們在Global WAM保持了成長勢頭,核心收益比去年同期成長了7%。這得益於更高的平均資產管理規模、Comvest Credit Partners 的加入以及持續的費用控制。由於我們在 11 月於香港過渡到新的 eMPF 平台,收益有所下降,部分抵消了上述影響。正如我之前提到的,本季淨流出額較高,達到 95 億美元。本季總營收較上年同期成長 15%,達到 500 億美元,在各業務線成長的支持下,持續保持強勁勢頭。我們的核心 EBITDA 利潤率較上年增長 60 個基點至 29.2%——考慮到 eMPF 的過渡,這是一個強勁的成績。

  • Next, let's head over to Canada on slide 16, where we delivered solid growth in new business metrics and core earnings.

    接下來,讓我們來看看第 16 張投影片中的加拿大市場,我們在那裡實現了新業務指標和核心收益的穩健成長。

  • APE sales and new business value increased by 2% and 4%, respectively, from the prior year, reflecting strong growth in Individual Insurance and Annuity sales, partially offset by lower large-case sales in Group insurance. New business CSM maintained strong momentum and continued to deliver double-digit year-over-year growth, supported by higher sales volumes in Individual Insurance. Core earnings increased by 6% year-over-year, driven in part by favorable insurance experience in Individual Insurance, higher investment spreads and business growth in Group Insurance. These tailwinds were partially offset by less favorable insurance experience in Group Insurance.

    與前一年相比,年度保費收入和新業務價值分別增長了 2% 和 4%,反映出個人保險和年金銷售的強勁增長,但部分被團體保險大額保費收入的下降所抵消。新業務 CSM 保持強勁勢頭,在個人保險銷售量增加的支持下,繼續實現兩位數的同比增長。核心收益年增 6%,部分原因是個人保險業務的良好績效、更高的投資利差以及團體保險業務的成長。這些利多因素被團體保險領域較不利的保險經驗部分抵銷。

  • Lastly, our U.S. segment's results on slide 17.

    最後,第 17 頁是我們美國業務部門的業績。

  • In the U.S., we saw continued broad-based demand for our suite of products, resulting in a 9% increase in APE sales versus the prior year quarter. Together with product mix changes, we saw very strong growth in new business CSM of 34%. Core earnings decreased 22% year-on-year, primarily due to lower investment spreads and unfavorable life insurance claims experience, compared with favorable experience in the prior year.

    在美國,我們看到市場對我們的全套產品需求持續廣泛成長,導致 APE 銷售額比去年同期成長了 9%。隨著產品組合的變化,新業務客戶成功率 (CSM) 實現了 34% 的強勁成長。核心收益較去年同期下降 22%,主要原因是投資利差降低和人壽保險理賠不利,而前一年則狀況良好。

  • Moving on to cash generation and capital allocation on slide 18.

    接下來,請看第 18 頁關於現金流量產生和資本配置的內容。

  • In 2025, we generated remittances of $6.4 billion, exceeding our $6-billion expectation, positioning us firmly to meet our cumulative 2027 target of $22 billion-plus. Over the past three years, remittances have averaged over 85% of our core earnings. And while this has been positively impacted by inforce reinsurance activities and favorable market movements, we continue to expect 60% to 70% of core earnings to materialize as cash remittances on a go-forward basis, a testament to our capital-efficient and cash-generative businesses.

    2025 年,我們實現了 64 億美元的匯款,超過了 60 億美元的預期,這使我們能夠穩步實現 2027 年累計超過 220 億美元的目標。過去三年,匯款平均占我們核心收益的 85% 以上。儘管持續再保險活動和有利的市場趨勢對此產生了積極影響,但我們仍然預計未來 60% 至 70% 的核心收益將以現金匯款的形式實現,這證明了我們資本效率高、現金創造能力強的業務。

  • As Phil mentioned earlier, we will initiate a new share buyback program in late February 2026 to repurchase up to 2.5% of our outstanding common shares. In addition, our Board has approved a 10% increase in our quarterly common share dividend. Together, these actions reflect our continued commitment to shareholder value creation.

    正如菲爾之前提到的,我們將於 2026 年 2 月下旬啟動一項新的股票回購計劃,回購最多 2.5% 的已發行普通股。此外,董事會已批准將季度普通股股息提高 10%。這些措施共同體現了我們對創造股東價值的持續承諾。

  • Let's now move to our balance sheet on slide 19.

    現在讓我們來看看第 19 頁的資產負債表。

  • We grew our adjusted book value per share by 6% from the prior year to $38.27, even after returning significant capital to shareholders, as well as the impact of a strengthening Canadian dollar that reduced the growth rate by 3%. We ended the year with a strong LICAT ratio of 136%, which was $24 billion above the Supervisory Target Ratio. Our financial leverage ratio of 23.9% remained well below our medium term target of 25%. These robust metrics underpin the strength and resilience of our capital position and balance sheet.

    即使在向股東返還大量資本,以及加元走強導致增長率下降 3% 的情況下,我們調整後的每股帳面價值仍比上年增長了 6%,達到 38.27 美元。我們以強勁的LICAT比率(136%)結束了這一年,比監管目標比率高出240億美元。我們的財務槓桿率為 23.9%,遠低於其中期目標 25%。這些穩健的指標支撐著我們雄厚的資本實力和穩健的資產負債表。

  • Moving to slide 20, which summarizes how we are progressing toward our targets.

    接下來是第 20 張投影片,其中總結了我們實現目標的進展。

  • Our 2025 results reflect disciplined execution and momentum across the business, with meaningful progress towards achieving our Investor Day core ROE, remittances and efficiency targets. You can see the three year progress of our core ROE expansion in the appendix of the presentation. While our core EPS growth was slightly below our target, due in part to headwinds in our U.S. segment this year, we achieved or are tracking well towards the remainder of our targets. And by executing our refreshed strategy, I'm confident in our ability to achieve our 2027 and medium-term targets going forward.

    我們 2025 年的業績反映了公司各部門嚴謹的執行力和強勁的發展勢頭,在實現投資者日核心 ROE、匯款和效率目標方面取得了實質進展。您可以在簡報的附錄中看到我們核心 ROE 擴張的三年進展。儘管由於今年美國業務面臨一些不利因素,我們的核心每股盈餘成長略低於預期目標,但我們已經實現或正在穩步實現其餘目標。透過執行我們更新後的策略,我有信心我們能夠實現 2027 年及以後的中期目標。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. Before we move to the Q&A session, I would like to remind each participant to adhere to a limit of two questions, including follow-ups, and to re-queue if they have additional questions. Operator, we will now open the call to questions.

    我們的發言稿到此結束。在進入問答環節之前,我想提醒每位參與者,提問次數(包括後續問題)不得超過兩個,如有其他問題,請重新排隊。接線員,現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • John Aiken, Jefferies.

    約翰艾肯,傑富瑞集團。

  • John Aiken - Equity Analyst

    John Aiken - Equity Analyst

  • Colin, point of clarification in terms of your commentary on the Hong Kong sales are down because of the broker pressure and regulatory changes. Is this a step function, or can we see the sales levels maybe move back further to a certain -- back up to a run rate level in 2026?

    Colin,關於你之前評論的香港銷售下降是由於經紀商壓力和監管變化造成的,我需要澄清一點。這是一個階躍函數,還是我們可以看到銷售水平可能會進一步回落到某個特定水平——在 2026 年恢復到之前的運行水平?

  • Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

  • Morning, John, it's Steve Finch here.

    早安,約翰,我是史蒂夫芬奇。

  • So, for Hong Kong sales, maybe I'll take a step back first. For the full year, we're very happy with the Hong Kong performance. We saw strong sales for the full year, up 21%, NBV up 31%, NB CSM up 21%, and strong core earnings up 26%; so, really good results.

    所以,對於香港的銷售,我或許會先退一步。我們對香港全年的業績非常滿意。全年銷售額強勁成長 21%,NBV 成長 31%,NB CSM 成長 21%,核心收益也強勁成長 26%;因此,業績非常好。

  • What we're seeing in the quarter is, as Colin mentioned in his opening both tough year-over-year comparative -- we had very strong results in Q4 prior year. But isolated to softness that we're seeing in the broker channel, and, in particular, the MCV broker channel. The distributors there -- they're adjusting to some regulatory changes; and that, you know, this is not unusual from what we see in different markets in Asia: with regulatory changes coming in, some adjustment period, and then a resumption of growth. We benefit from a diversified distribution strategy in Asia, and we saw continued growth in Q4 in both our agency and banca channel. So, as we look to the future, we're confident; you know, the underlying customer demand is still there; you know, the fundamentals are strong, so we expect that, you know, the brokers will adjust and we'll see sales increase over time.

    正如科林在開場白中提到的,本季我們看到的情況是,同比數據非常艱難——去年第四季我們的業績非常強勁。但這種疲軟態勢僅限於經紀商渠道,尤其是 MCV 經紀商渠道。那裡的經銷商正在適應一些監管變化;你知道,這在亞洲不同的市場中並不罕見:監管變化到來,經過一段時間的調整,然後恢復成長。我們在亞洲採取了多元化的分銷策略,並在第四季度實現了代理通路和銀行通路的持續成長。所以,展望未來,我們充滿信心;你知道,潛在的客戶需求仍然存在;你知道,基本面很強勁,所以我們預計,你知道,經紀人會做出調整,隨著時間的推移,我們將看到銷售額增長。

  • Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And John, this is Phil, if I can just add one thing. Consistently on this call in recent years, I've said that we have appetite for the broker channel, but we can see quarters where there'll be variability in volume. Particularly, if there are changes in the regulatory environment, which we have seen over the past six months and because of competitive factors and the competitive environment. The environment is competitive in the broker channel. I think the really important point is that our core channels of agency, as well as banca, delivered strong growth in the fourth quarter, as Steve said.

    約翰,這位是菲爾,我只想補充一點。近年來,我在電話會議上一直強調,我們對經紀管道有需求,但我們也看到,某些季度的交易量會有波動。尤其是如果監管環境發生變化,就像我們在過去六個月裡看到的那樣,而且由於競爭因素和競爭環境的影響。經紀通路競爭激烈。我認為真正重要的是,正如史蒂夫所說,我們的核心管道——代理商和銀行保險——在第四季度實現了強勁增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom MacKinnon, BMO Capital Markets.

    Tom MacKinnon,BMO資本市場。

  • Tom MacKinnon - Equity Analyst

    Tom MacKinnon - Equity Analyst

  • Just to follow-up with respect to that and then one other question. If I look at the NBV margin, in Hong Kong it's 52.4% in fourth quarter '25 and 39.7% in the fourth quarter ‘24, so substantially increased. Is this due to mix? Is the agency and the banca channel certainly more profitable than broker channel? And, if so, why focus more on that MCV broker channel if the others provide better like new business value and better CSM -- new business CSM growth and better NBV margin?

    關於這一點,我還有後續問題,另外還有一個問題。如果我看一下 NBV 利潤率,香港在 2025 年第四季為 52.4%,在 2024 年第四季為 39.7%,因此大幅成長。這是由於混音造成的嗎?代理商通路和銀行通路的利潤一定比經紀人通路高嗎?如果是這樣,為什麼還要更專注於 MCV 經紀管道,而其他管道卻能提供更好的新業務價值和更高的客戶成功率(CSM)——新業務 CSM 成長和更高的 NBV 利潤率?

  • Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

  • Yeah, thanks Tom. It's Steve.

    是啊,謝謝你,湯姆。是史蒂夫。

  • You noted an important point there. We saw the margin in Hong Kong NBV margin year-over-year increase over 12%, and it is a mix. We saw with the MCV broker sales dropping, that is a lower margin channel, certainly. We see it as attractive. We regularly adjust our overall focus on volume versus margin and optimize there, but the core of our business continues to be domestic agency where we've got strong margins and continue to have a strong growth. So, yeah, we're happy with that mix overall. We did see also a product mix shift. We've been emphasizing and meeting the customer needs around health and protection, and we saw an increase in our health and protection sales which also contributed to the margin expansion.

    你指出了一個重要的觀點。我們看到香港 NBV 利潤率年增超過 12%,而且情況比較複雜。我們看到 MCV 經紀商的銷售額下降,這無疑是一個利潤率較低的管道。我們認為它很有吸引力。我們會定期調整整體業務重心,以銷售與利潤為導向,並進行最佳化,但我們業務的核心仍然是國內代理業務,因為我們在該領域擁有強勁的利潤率,並且持續保持強勁增長。所以,總的來說,我們對這個組合很滿意。我們也觀察到了產品組合的變化。我們一直重視並滿足客戶在健康和防護方面的需求,我們的健康和防護產品銷售有所成長,這也促進了利潤率的提高。

  • Tom MacKinnon - Equity Analyst

    Tom MacKinnon - Equity Analyst

  • All right, and a question perhaps for Paul.

    好的,或許可以問保羅一個問題。

  • I mean, we're just into the Comvest close here, but I think you've noted an impact from eMPF in terms of what it would be post-tax to GWAM earnings. What about Comvest? I know you've talked about overall accretion, but, I mean, you use a lot of cash to make this acquisition. How should we be looking at the GWAM segment going forward in light of the incremental earnings from Comvest?

    我的意思是,我們現在剛到 Comvest 收盤的時候,但我認為你已經注意到 eMPF 對 GWAM 稅後收益的影響了。Comvest怎麼樣?我知道你們談到了整體成長,但是,我的意思是,你們用了大量的現金來進行這次收購。鑑於 Comvest 帶來的增量效益,我們該如何看待 GWAM 板塊的未來發展?

  • Paul Lorentz - President and Chief Executive Officer, Global Wealth and Asset Management

    Paul Lorentz - President and Chief Executive Officer, Global Wealth and Asset Management

  • Yeah, thanks Tom. It's Paul here. So just in terms of outlook, as you mentioned, we're quite pleased with -- maybe I'll start with the eMPF. Just in terms of the rationale or change there, we're about halfway, even though we've converted, I would say about half of the impact that we provided guidance is reflected in the current quarter and that's still an accurate guidance to go forward.

    是啊,謝謝你,湯姆。我是保羅。所以就前景而言,正如您所提到的,我們相當滿意——也許我會從 eMPF 開始。就理由或變化而言,我們已經完成了大約一半,儘管我們已經進行了轉換,但我認為我們提供的指導意見的影響大約有一半已經反映在本季度,而且這仍然是對未來業績的準確指導。

  • As relates to Comvest, we don't disclose the metrics separately at this point, but what I would say is it was a positive contributor marginally, because it closed late in the year, to gross flows, to net flows, and core earnings; and it is tracking in line with what we would’ve expected early. We’re quite excited about it, in terms of what we're seeing, in terms of customer and demand: the category itself is expected to double. And just to give you a little bit of a proof point of why we're so optimistic: if we look at CQS, which closed a year and a half ago, which is an alternative credit, our AUM is up 40% since deal closed and it's driving a lot of positive top-line, and we expect to see similar excitement around the Comvest product suite, just because of the demand. So it's early, but we're quite optimistic and quite happy with how it's proceeding so far.

    至於 Comvest,我們目前不單獨披露相關指標,但我想說的是,由於其在年底才完成交割,因此對總流入、淨流入和核心收益都做出了略微積極的貢獻;而且其表現與我們年初的預期一致。就我們所看到的,就客戶和需求而言,我們對此感到非常興奮:預計該品類本身將翻倍。為了讓您稍微了解我們為何如此樂觀:以一年半前完成的另類信貸產品 CQS 為例,自交易完成以來,我們的資產管理規模增長了 40%,並推動了營收的大幅增長,我們預計 Comvest 產品系列也會帶來類似的增長,這完全是因為市場需求旺盛。現在下結論還為時過早,但我們相當樂觀,對目前的進展也相當滿意。

  • Tom MacKinnon - Equity Analyst

    Tom MacKinnon - Equity Analyst

  • Just to squeeze one in here, the 2.5% NCIB. You got a pretty good track record. I think it's over 3% you purchased in 2025. Colin, is there anything you can say about what your intentions would be with respect to this NCIB given that you've generally historically purchased the bulk of these NCIBs?

    順便提一下,2.5% 的 NCIB。你的過往業績相當不錯。我認為你2025年購買的超過3%的股份。科林,鑑於你歷來都是這些 NCIB 的主要購買者,你能否透露一下你對這批 NCIB 的意圖?

  • Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks for the question, Tom. Let me jump in on that one. It's Phil.

    謝謝你的提問,湯姆。我也想參與討論。是菲爾。

  • You're right, our last NCIB program was 3% and we completed that in full. This year we've announced 2.5% and, you know, it's hard to predict the future. But where we stand now, our intention is to complete the program in full and if anything changes there, I'm happy to update on future calls. From our perspective, our capital deployment strategy is balanced and NCIB remains an appropriate use of capital. But, at this level 2.5%, it's not something that constrains our ability to invest organically in our businesses, which is really important in the context of the refreshed strategy that we laid out three months ago.

    你說得對,我們上一次的 NCIB 專案佔比 3%,我們全部完成了。今年我們宣布的成長率為 2.5%,但你知道,未來很難預測。但就目前而言,我們的目標是全面完成該計劃,如果情況有任何變化,我很樂意在以後的電話會議上告知大家。從我們的角度來看,我們的資本部署策略是平衡的,NCIB 仍然是適當的資本使用方式。但是,在 2.5% 的水平上,這並不會限制我們對業務進行有機投資的能力,這在我們三個月前製定的更新策略的背景下非常重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

    道格楊,德斯賈丁資本市場。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Maybe just going to the U.S. division. It feels like, and correct me if I'm wrong, that you've had unfavorable mortality experience for three to four quarters or for sure unfavorable claims experience or experience in general for about three to four quarters in a row. I'm just hoping you can unpack what you're seeing this quarter. I think it's mortality, is there a particular product line? We have heard a little bit more about competition on mortality side in the U.S. market. So, just trying to kind of gauge, kind of what you're seeing and what to expect going forward.

    或許就去美國分部吧。感覺上,如果我錯了請糾正我,你們的死亡率記錄已經連續三到四個季度不佳,或者理賠記錄或整體業績也肯定連續三到四個季度不佳。我只是希望你能分析一下本季你所看到的情況。我認為這是死亡率的問題,是否有特定的產品線?我們已經了解到一些關於美國市場死亡率方面競爭的資訊。所以,我只是想大致了解一下你目前看到的情況以及未來可能的發展趨勢。

  • Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

    Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

  • Hi, Doug, it's Brooks Tingle. Thanks for the question.

    嗨,道格,我是布魯克斯·廷格爾。謝謝你的提問。

  • And I guess let's start with a quick reminder that we operate at the very high end of the market in the U.S., quite large policies. Now, that's a very attractive segment of the market, and you see that reflected in our new business value metrics. It does result in some variability quarter-to-quarter and even year-to-year from a mortality perspective. And you'll recall that Q2 of '25 represented a particularly unusual level of variability, but we're pleased that Q3 showed significant normalization improvement from there, and Q4 still further improvement from there. And I'd actually characterize where we finished Q4 is within sort of a normal range of variability and I'll probably leave it at that.

    我想先提醒大家一下,我們在美國市場屬於高端市場,保單金額相當大。現在,這是一個非常有吸引力的市場區隔領域,這也反映在我們新的業務價值指標中。從死亡率的角度來看,這確實會導致季度之間甚至年度之間出現一些波動。您可能還記得,2025 年第二季的波動性特別異常,但我們很高興第三季從那時起出現了明顯的正常化改善,第四季又從那時起進一步改善。實際上,我認為我們第四季的最終結果處於正常的波動範圍內,我就說到這裡吧。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • So, you're not seeing a particular trend here that would, in the end, result in some form of actuarial or reserve increase that's required for these businesses? I guess that's where I'm trying to go.

    所以,您沒有看到任何特定的趨勢,最終會導致這些企業需要增加某種形式的精算或準備金嗎?我想這就是我想要達到的目標。

  • Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

    Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

  • Hi, it's Stephanie here.

    大家好,我是史蒂芬妮。

  • I think Brooks covered it well. What we saw this quarter is sequentially improved claims experience, and I really view this as normal variability due to slightly elevated severity. And we'll see variability from time to time, given we are in the large-case business. I don't view this as a trend. In fact, same quarter last year, we had -- and for the full year of 2024, we saw claims gains through P&L in this business.

    我覺得布魯克斯解釋得很好。本季我們看到理賠情況較上季改善,我認為這是由於病情嚴重程度略有上升而導致的正常波動。鑑於我們從事的是大型項目,因此我們會不時看到一些波動。我不認為這是一種趨勢。事實上,去年同期,我們實現了——並且到 2024 年全年,我們看到該業務的損益表索賠金額有所增長。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Okay, and then second question maybe for Colin or for Phil: I guess my question is, can you achieve an 18%-plus core ROE target by 2027 with the level of excess capital that you have and you're under levered as well or do those things need to kind of normalize? And I assume you're going to say yes, but maybe if you can map out how you get from 16.5% to 18%-plus in the next two years? Just to give a sense of what those drivers could be. And then maybe we can kind of tie in, like, why not be more aggressive on the NCIB given the amount of capital or cash that you're generating and the amount of excess capital you currently sit on?

    好的,第二個問題可能問 Colin 或 Phil:我想問的是,以你們目前的超額資本水準和較低的槓桿率,你們能否在 2027 年實現 18% 以上的核心 ROE 目標?還是說這些情況需要逐步恢復正常?我猜你會答應,但或許你可以規劃如何在未來兩年內將成長率從 16.5% 提高到 18% 以上?只是為了讓大家了解這些驅動因素可能是什麼樣的。然後,或許我們可以這樣聯繫起來:鑑於你正在產生的資本或現金數量以及你目前擁有的超額資本數量,為什麼不更積極地進行正常市場發行人收購計劃 (NCIB) 呢?

  • Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So, Doug, this is Phil.

    道格,這位是菲爾。

  • I will hand over to Colin, but I do want to say, yes, we do remain confident that we can get to the 18%-plus core ROE target and there are various reasons underpinning that, but I'll let Colin walk through it.

    我將把發言權交給科林,但我確實想說,是的,我們仍然有信心實現 18% 以上的核心 ROE 目標,這背後有很多原因,但我還是讓科林來詳細解釋吧。

  • Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

    Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the important point to note is we've mapped out a number of scenarios to get us to the 18%. We're confident that we're going to get there. We were at 18.1% last quarter, 17.1% this quarter, so the trajectory is good. We live in a fluid environment, and we will use share buybacks not as the primary driver to get to the 18% ROE but as a lever to pull in order for us to get there.

    我認為需要注意的重要一點是,我們已經制定了多種方案來實現 18% 的目標。我們有信心能夠實現目標。上季我們達到了 18.1%,本季達到了 17.1%,所以發展勢頭良好。我們生活在一個瞬息萬變的環境中,我們將股票回購視為實現 18% 淨資產收益率的主要驅動力,而不是實現這一目標的槓桿。

  • You mentioned excess capital being a drag on our ability to grow ROE. That's certainly the case. We have got around about $10 billion above our upper operating limit, but that becomes a competitive strength in either difficult times or in a whole range of scenarios, so we're in no hurry to deplete what is a very favorable capital position.

    您曾提過,過剩資本會拖累我們提高淨值收益率的能力。情況的確如此。我們目前比營運上限多出約 100 億美元,但這在困難時期或各種情況下都會成為我們的競爭優勢,因此我們並不急於消耗這筆非常有利的資本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

    Gabriel Dechaine,國家銀行金融公司。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Actually, just to follow-up on that mortality issue in the U.S.. So you're confident this isn't some trend. I guess one way to confirm your view more or less is: is there any impact from what's happening in this business mortality-wise on your appetite for LTC dispositions, because that business would be as a hedge to higher mortality?

    實際上,我只是想跟進美國的死亡率問題。所以你確信這不是某種趨勢。我想,要大致確認你的觀點,一個方法是:目前這個行業的死亡率情況是否會對你對長期照護資產處置的興趣產生任何影響,因為這項業務可以作為對沖較高死亡率的工具?

  • Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We're here, Gabriel.

    我們到了,加布里埃爾。

  • Just I think it's probably best for Brooks to take a start on that and maybe Naveed will comment from an LTC perspective.

    我認為最好還是由布魯克斯來著手處理這件事,也許納維德會從長期照護的角度發表意見。

  • Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

    Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

  • Yeah, I would just say that certainly, we don't view this as a long-term trend. We look at it very carefully. There's variability for sure. If you look at our Q4 results, from a core earnings impact, you see a little bit more -- it looks a little bit like an outsized impact because we actually had a gain the prior Q4, which again reflects that variability. But if you look at sort of post-COVID, the range of tailwind and headwind from mortality in the life segment in the U.S., it's been within a reasonably tight range and the Q4 result was in that range. So, we're pleased to see it normalizing, though there'll always be some amount of variability. Again, I would point to that: while there is that variability associated with operating at the high end of the market, the value metrics are very strong. You saw that last year and we're very confident about our ability to continue to grow that business.

    是的,我只想說,我們當然不認為這是長期趨勢。我們會非常仔細地研究它。當然,其中存在差異。如果你看我們第四季度的業績,從核心收益的影響來看,你會發現影響更大一些——看起來影響有點過大,因為我們上一季第四季度實際上實現了增長,這也再次反映了這種波動性。但如果你看看後新冠疫情時代,美國生命階段死亡率帶來的利好和不利因素的範圍一直處於一個相當狹窄的範圍內,而第四季度的結果也在這個範圍內。所以,我們很高興看到它趨於正常化,儘管總是會有一定程度的波動。我再次強調:雖然在高端市場營運存在一定的波動性,但其價值指標非常強勁。去年你們也看到了這一點,我們對繼續發展這項業務的能力非常有信心。

  • Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

    Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

  • Naveed here, I would just add that, given that we don't feel the mortality is a sort of long-term trend. It's not really affecting how we're thinking about LTC transactions. As you know we've done two significant transactions with different counterparties, at around book value, which provides sort of external validation of our assumptions on LTC; and we're continuing to focus on evaluating opportunistic transactions that drive shareholder value -- that won't go away.

    我是納維德,我只想補充一點,鑑於我們認為死亡率不是長期趨勢。這並沒有真正影響我們對LTC交易的看法。如您所知,我們已經與不同的交易對手進行了兩筆重大交易,交易價格接近賬面價值,這為我們對 LTC 的假設提供了某種外部驗證;我們將繼續專注於評估能夠提升股東價值的機會性交易——這一點不會改變。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Okay, and I guess just to continue down that path with regards to legacy book dispositions. Hey, quickly, is the mortality issue tied to a legacy block? But, the real question is: when I look at the transactions that you've announced in the past and how you've neutralized the earnings per share impact from the disposition is buying back stock. Is that dynamic much more challenging now, i.e., makes dispositions a lot more difficult to do and make them EPS neutral because, you're -- it's a different discussion when your stocks at 2 times book versus, just over 1 time when the first deal was announced a couple of years back? Or I guess another -- are you committed to making dispositions earnings per share neutral?

    好的,我想就繼續沿著這條路走下去,處理遺留書籍的問題。請問,這個死亡率問題是否與某個遺留模組有關?但真正的問題是:當我回顧你們過去宣布的交易,以及你們如何透過回購股票來抵銷處置對每股盈餘的影響時,我感到困惑。現在這種動態是否更具挑戰性,也就是說,處置資產變得更加困難,並且難以使其對每股收益保持中性,因為——當你的股票市淨率是幾年前宣布第一筆交易時的 2 倍時,情況就不同了,當時的市淨率剛好超過 1 倍?或者我猜還有另一種可能——您是否致力於使資產處置對每股收益產生中性影響?

  • Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

    Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

  • So Gabrielle, thanks. It's Brooks. I'll turn to Naveed on the broader question of legacy dispositions or not, but I will say on the claims. We've seen, really in Q2 '25 and a little bit beyond, it's not anything notable as it relates to a particular block. Incidents, the number of claims, is actually favorable. It's really, again, because we write these large policies, a confluence in a quarter of a small number of large cases that drive -- that drove that result. So, there, it's not early duration business -- this is generally business written 20-plus years ago, so nothing really abnormal there. It just works out to variability quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year.

    加布里埃爾,謝謝你。是布魯克斯。關於遺產處置的更廣泛問題,我會請教納維德,但我會就這些說法發表看法。我們已經看到,在 2025 年第二季及之後的一段時間裡,就特定區塊而言,並沒有什麼值得注意的地方。事故數量,也就是索賠數量,實際上是有利的。再次強調,正是因為我們制定了這些大型政策,才導致了少數幾個重大案例的匯合,從而產生了這樣的結果。所以,這不是早期業務——這通常是 20 多年前寫的業務,所以沒有什麼不正常的。結果就是季度之間、年度之間的波動。

  • Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

    Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

  • I would just add that, on our legacy businesses, I feel really good about how we're managing them organically. You've seen our success in obtaining premium rate increases on LTC, that contractually allowed -- we've continually beat our assumptions on that. We're investing significant amounts on fraud, waste, and abuse. We connect regularly with the market in terms of opportunistic transactions. There is interest in the market and we continue to follow-up with them; and I don't think we're constrained with respect to what we can do there.

    我還要補充一點,對於我們的傳統業務,我對我們目前的有機管理方式感到非常滿意。您已經看到了我們在獲得長期照護保險保費上漲方面的成功,在合約允許的範圍內——我們在這方面不斷超越預期。我們在打擊詐欺、浪費和濫用行為方面投入了大量資金。我們經常與市場進行機會性交易。市場對此很感興趣,我們將繼續與他們保持聯繫;我認為我們在這方面不會受到任何限制。

  • Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

    Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I think Gabe, just to pile on there.

    是的,我覺得是 Gabe,我也同意。

  • You talked about the book value multiple and the shares. I mean that that is not a constraint for us to grow our earnings per share. We'll look at each deal on an individual basis and then make any according capital allocation decision based on that deal on its own merits. So, I wouldn't read anything into how the current share price is affecting our ability to do future deals.

    你談到了帳面價值倍數和股票。我的意思是,這不會限制我們提高每股盈餘。我們將逐一檢視每筆交易,然後根據該交易本身的優點做出相應的資本分配決定。所以,我不認為目前的股價會對我們未來進行交易的能力產生任何影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Ward, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可沃德。

  • Michael Ward - Analyst

    Michael Ward - Analyst

  • I was curious about the Japan business actually. One of your global kind of peers has run into a little bit of a hiccup in terms of just distribution in Japan. So I'm just wondering what you see in this kind of high-net-worth market for insurance and wealth products in Japan and if you see any disruption or change -- anything changing there in terms of the market structure?

    其實我對日本市場很有興趣。你們的全球同行之一在日本的分銷方面遇到了一些小問題。所以我想知道您對日本高淨值人士的保險和財富產品市場有何看法,以及您是否看到任何顛覆或變化——市場結構方面是否有任何變化?

  • Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

  • Yes, I'm well aware of what's been reported by one of our peers in Japan, and it's not directly applicable to Manulife. One thing I'd point out is we're very experienced in running a multi-channel distribution model in many countries in Asia, including Japan. And over time, we've built and continue to build strong controls and compliance programs. Whenever there are isolated issues, we address them very swiftly.

    是的,我非常清楚我們日本的一位同行所報道的內容,但這與宏利金融沒有直接關係。我想指出的一點是,我們在亞洲許多國家(包括日本)經營多通路分銷模式方面擁有非常豐富的經驗。隨著時間的推移,我們已經建立並將繼續建立強大的控制和合規計劃。如果出現個別問題,我們會迅速解決。

  • And then to your point around the Japan market, what we're seeing is some strong success in the Japan market. You see from our numbers: double-digit growth this year. We’ve been executing on a strategy to capitalize on customer needs and some of those needs are driven by interest rates that are structurally higher than they have been in the past; an aging society with long longevity, so a big need for retirement planning. We've expanded the product portfolio to meet more of these customer needs, in terms of unit-linked product, whole-life product; and that's been driving our success, and we're optimistic as we look forward in Japan.

    至於您提到的日本市場,我們在日本市場確實取得了一些顯著的成功。從我們的數據可以看出:今年實現了兩位數的成長。我們一直在執行一項策略,以充分利用客戶的需求,而其中一些需求是由利率結構性地高於以往水準所驅動的;人口老化和預期壽命延長,因此對退休規劃的需求很大。我們擴大了產品組合,以滿足更多客戶的需求,包括投資連結型產品和全生命週期產品;這推動了我們的成功,我們對未來在日本的發展充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Holden, CIBC.

    Paul Holden,加拿大帝國商業銀行。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • I want to ask a couple follow-up questions related to topics that have already been discussed. So, first one is around Asia sales and I guess Hong Kong particularly. You give us a number of different measures or metrics to follow and I think we've all been conditioned to follow APE sales because of IFRS 4 accounting.

    我想就之前討論過的話題提幾個後續問題。首先,是關於亞洲銷售,特別是香港地區的銷售。您為我們提供了許多不同的衡量標準或指標,我認為由於 IFRS 4 會計準則,我們都習慣於關注 APE 銷售額。

  • But now maybe there's an argument that shouldn't be the number one metric to follow. Maybe it should be new CSM growth because that's what's really going to drive future earnings. So, point A is like: do you agree with that if you were to focus on one metric that should be the most important one? And then second part of the question: like does that influence or to what degree does that influence how you think about sales mix?

    但現在或許有種說法認為,這不應該是首要衡量標準。或許應該專注於新的客戶成功管理 (CSM) 成長,因為這才是真正能夠推動未來獲利成長的因素。所以,A點是:如果你要專注於一個最重要的指標,你是否同意這個觀點?問題的第二部分是:這是否會影響你對銷售組合的看法,或者在多大程度上會影響你對銷售組合的看法?

  • Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

  • Yeah, thanks, Paul. It's Steve here.

    謝謝你,保羅。我是史蒂夫。

  • And you hit on an important point. I mean, the way we think about this under IFRS 17 when we see sales variability, it does not translate into core earnings variability as the CSM amortizes into income. So, we are focused on generating the most value for shareholders; NBV and NB CSM -- we report both. They're both a good indicator of the value that we're generating for different reasons, so we focus on both of those. And we drive maximum dollar magnitude, with an important guiding light of the company's medium-term ROE target of 18%-plus. So, we optimize for dollar value while meeting that -- meeting or exceeding that hurdle rate and that's what we're looking to optimize.

    你指出了一個重點。我的意思是,根據 IFRS 17 的規定,當我們看到銷售額波動時,它並不會轉化為核心收益波動,因為 CSM 會攤提到收入中。因此,我們專注於為股東創造最大價值;NBV 和 NB CSM——我們都會報告。兩者都是衡量我們所創造價值的良好指標,原因各不相同,所以我們兩者都關注。我們追求最大的美元收益,並以公司中期 ROE 目標 18% 以上為重要的指導原則。因此,我們在滿足該目標的同時,以美元價值為目標進行最佳化——達到或超過該門檻收益率,這就是我們想要優化的目標。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • Okay, so if I measure this quarter on that basis, then it was a really good result for Asia sales.

    好的,如果我以此為標準來衡量本季的業績,那麼亞洲地區的銷售業績確實非常好。

  • Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President and Chief Executive Officer of Manulife Asia

  • Yes, as Colin noted, NBV up, for the segment, of 10% and NB CSM up 19%, helping drive year-over-year CSM was up organically 11%, total 19%, and a little over USD2 billion.

    是的,正如 Colin 指出的那樣,該板塊的 NBV 增長了 10%,NB CSM 增長了 19%,推動了 CSM 同比增長 11%(有機增長),總計增長 19%,略高於 20 億美元。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • Yeah, okay, good.

    好的,沒問題。

  • And then my second question again to follow-up to prior discussions is on the U.S. core insurance experience. So, the questions were a little bit more focused on the short-term, but if I think about the U.S. segment over the long-term, negative experience or unfavorable experiences kind of being the issue or concern for investors for a long, long period of time for different reasons.

    然後,我的第二個問題仍然是對先前討論的跟進,是關於美國核心保險經驗的問題。所以,這些問題更集中在短期方面,但如果從長遠來看美國市場,由於各種原因,負面經歷或不利經歷可能會在很長一段時間內成為投資者關注的問題或擔憂。

  • So given the refreshed strategy and the renewed focus on wanting to grow the U.S., I think it'd be helpful to give people more comfort around the experience there and how you're growing. So, I don't know if there's any actions you can take to kind of get that experience to more neutral or positive, or again how you're thinking about that. Because I think addressing that issue again would give people a lot more comfort around this renewed growth emphasis on U.S., so just thoughts, comments there.

    鑑於公司調整了策略,並重新聚焦於發展美國市場,我認為讓人們對在美國的體驗以及公司的發展方式感到更加放心,將會很有幫助。所以,我不知道你是否可以採取任何措施來使這種體驗變得更加中立或積極,或者說,你對此有什麼看法。因為我認為再次討論這個問題會讓人們對美國重新重視經濟成長更有信心,所以以上僅是我的一些想法和評論。

  • Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Philip Witherington - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey Paul, this is Phil.

    嘿,保羅,我是菲爾。

  • It's an excellent question and thank you for asking it. In our strategy refresh, one of the things that we emphasized was the importance of having a diversified portfolio. And when I think about that, of course diversification is a risk mitigant, but, in particular for the U.S., there are many things that the U.S. business, John Hancock, contributes to Manulife that we value a great deal -- including the earnings generation, including the capital generation and the stability of our capital generation. And one of the things that we changed, as part of the strategy refresh, is actually having a clearer appetite to invest in that business, so that we can sustain for the long-term earnings and capital generation.

    這是一個很好的問題,謝謝你的提問。在我們的策略調整中,我們強調的一點是擁有多元化投資組合的重要性。當我思考這個問題時,當然多元化是一種風險緩解措施,但尤其對於美國而言,美國業務 John Hancock 為宏利金融做出的貢獻有很多我們非常重視的——包括盈利能力、資本積累以及我們資本積累的穩定性。作為策略調整的一部分,我們改變的一件事是,我們更明確地表達了對該業務的投資意願,以便我們能夠維持長期的收益和資本創造。

  • Now, when we're talking about investing in the business, it's not about going back to where we've been before. It's actually growing in product lines that we have demonstrated tremendous value and success in recent years. And the drivers of adverse experience that you've referenced are quite different lines of business. The short-term matter that we've discussed on this call, of some mortality variability, we do believe that's short-term variability, but I think it would be helpful to hear from Brooks, some of the specific initiatives that we're taking in the U.S., and build that confidence that they're profitable, they're sustainable, and, from a risk perspective, within our appetite.

    現在,當我們談論投資企業時,這並不是要回到我們以前走過的路。事實上,近年來我們在產品線方面取得了巨大的價值和成功,而且這種趨勢還在不斷發展中。你提到的那些導致不良體驗的因素,屬於完全不同的業務領域。我們這次電話會議討論的短期問題,即死亡率的波動,我們確實認為這是短期波動,但我認為聽聽布魯克斯介紹一下我們在美國採取的一些具體舉措會很有幫助,這樣可以增強人們對這些舉措的信心,證明它們是有利可圖的、可持續的,並且從風險角度來看,在我們可接受的範圍內。

  • Brooks, over to you.

    布魯克斯,該你了。

  • Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

    Brooks Tingle - President and Chief Executive Officer - John Hancock

  • Sure, thanks, Phil, and thanks, Paul.

    當然,謝謝你,菲爾,也謝謝你,保羅。

  • Just quickly on policyholder experience, you look at it and certainly over a very long period of time, yes, whether it's mortality, persistency, or LTC experience, lots of attention there. But we've taken a whole range of options with respect to the U.S. segment to optimize shareholder value and that's really resulted in, I think a winnowing of a lot of that policyholder experience variability: LTC experience in Q4 was benign; the life claims experience, as I've said, was really represented a particularly unusual level of variability in Q2 -- now normalizing. So, we actually feel quite a bit better about policyholder experience in the U.S. But to pick up on Phil's point, I feel really great about our ability to contribute to strong and profitable growth for Manulife via our new business franchise in the U.S. and I won't go on too long about this, but I think everyone knows we've got a strong brand; we have an innovative and broad product suite; we have top relationships with independent distribution. And I'd point out a couple of the fastest growing segments in the U.S. economy are the so-called wellness economy and longevity economy, and we remain the only carrier in the US that offers such services to their policyholders, early cancer screenings, things like that, very strong consumer appeal. And you see that reflected in our new business value metrics for last year.

    簡單來說,關於保單持有人體驗,從長遠來看,無論是死亡率、保單持續率或長期照護經驗,都需要很多關注。但是,針對美國業務,我們採取了一系列措施來優化股東價值,我認為這確實減少了保單持有人體驗的波動性:第四季度長期護理保險體驗良好;正如我所說,第二季度人壽保險理賠體驗的波動性確實非常不尋常——現在正在恢復正常。所以,我們對美國保單持有人的體驗確實感覺好多了。但正如菲爾所說,我非常有信心,我們能夠透過在美國的新業務特許經營,為宏利帶來強勁且有利可圖的成長。我不會在這方面贅述太多,但我想大家都知道,我們擁有強大的品牌;我們擁有創新且廣泛的產品組合;我們與獨立經銷商建立了頂級的合作關係。我想指出,美國經濟中成長最快的兩個領域是所謂的健康經濟和長壽經濟,而我們仍然是美國唯一一家向保單持有人提供此類服務的保險公司,例如早期癌症篩檢等等,這些服務對消費者俱有很強的吸引力。這一點也體現在我們去年的新業務價值指標。

  • Similar to the discussion you had with Steve, our APE was up nicely last year, 24% for the full year, but new business CSM up 42%. So, lots of other initiatives, in the interest of time I won't get into, backing a quite ambitious growth plan for the U.S.. And we feel very good about the risk and expected policyholder experience profile of that business we're putting on the books.

    與你和史蒂夫的討論類似,我們去年的 APE 成長良好,全年成長了 24%,但新業務 CSM 成長了 42%。所以,為了節省時間,我就不一一贅述了,還有許多其他措施支持美國一項相當雄心勃勃的成長計畫。我們對即將納入保單範圍的業務的風險和預期保單持有人體驗狀況感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Darko Mihelic.

    達爾科·米赫利奇。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • I just had a modeling question, maybe looking for a range here. I actually want to be switching gears here and look to Canada for a moment. When I look at 2024 in Canada, you had a 43% increase in Group sales -- this year it's down 24%. So, when I think about 2025, you had 12% growth in your expected earnings on the short-term business, and now that we've had a very big decline in sales, I wonder if you can give me an idea of what we could expect with respect to that important line item? I don't think we should think about a decline, but maybe you can give me a sort of a range or some sort of an outlook on expected earnings on short-term business for 2026.

    我有一個建模方面的問題,可能是想了解範圍。我其實想換個話題,暫時把目光轉向加拿大。當我展望 2024 年加拿大市場時,你們的集團銷售額成長了 43%——而今年卻下降了 24%。所以,當我展望 2025 年時,你們短期業務的預期收益成長了 12%,而現在我們的銷售額大幅下降,我想知道你們能否告訴我,對於這個重要的項目,我們可以期待些什麼?我認為我們不應該考慮下滑,但或許您可以給我一個關於2026年短期業務預期收益的範圍或展望。

  • Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

    Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

  • Hi, Darko, it's Naveed here.

    嗨,Darko,我是Naveed。

  • So what you saw in 2024 was a very large case that we sold -- a jumbo case. So, as in this business, it’s a normal large-case variability. You have small- and medium-sized cases that generally have a consistent trend year-over-year that you get these large cases that jump around year-over-year. What we look at in addition to sales is our persistency and our sort of overall inforce premium and that continues on a good trajectory. And so, I think you can -- our recent sort of trends on PAA profits is something that should continue going forward.

    所以,你們在 2024 年看到的是我們賣出的一個非常大的箱子——一個巨型箱子。所以,就像在這個行業一樣,這是正常的大案例波動。小型和中型案件通常逐年保持穩定的趨勢,而大型案件則逐年波動。除了銷售額之外,我們還會關注保單續保率和整體有效保費,而這兩個指標目前都保持著良好的成長動能。所以,我認為你可以——我們最近在PAA利潤方面取得的這種趨勢應該會繼續下去。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • But at a similar pace, or should we at least expect a slowdown of the pace?

    但速度會不變嗎?或者我們至少應該預期速度會放緩?

  • Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

    Naveed Irshad - President & CEO, Manulife Canada; Global Head, Inforce Management and Group Reinsurance

  • Yeah, no, at a similar pace because again our persistency remains very strong.

    是的,速度差不多,因為我們的堅持依然非常堅定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

    馬裡奧門東卡,道明證券。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • There have been a lot of healthy discussions there on the liability side of the balance sheet. Could we flip over to the asset side? There's growing concern among investors around private equity, private debt, and that obviously draws my attention to Manulife's large private placement debt the 52 -- almost $52 billion. You talk about how credit experience has evolved in that asset category, and what proportion of that would you would label as higher risk or sort of topical areas in that specific line that $51.8 billion of private placement debt.

    在那裡就資產負債表的負債方進行了很多有益的討論。我們能否轉到資產端進行分析?投資人對私募股權、私募債務的擔憂日益加劇,這顯然引起了我對宏利金融巨額私募債務(520億美元)的關注。您談到了該資產類別中的信貸經驗是如何演變的,以及您會將其中多少比例的 518 億美元私募債務歸類為高風險或熱點領域。

  • Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

  • Hi Mario, it's Trevor. Thanks for the question.

    嗨,馬裡奧,我是特雷弗。謝謝你的提問。

  • So, as you noted, there are a wide range of definitions as to what you include in private credit, in private debt, and private placements. We have, for example, successfully participated in the investment grade private placement market for many years. We like the diversification and the spreads, the covenants that you get relative to public markets.

    正如你所指出的,對於私人信貸、私人債務和私人配售的定義有很多種。例如,我們多年來一直成功參與投資等級私募市場。我們喜歡這種多元化投資方式和價差,以及相對於公開市場而言所享有的優惠條件。

  • Just breaking down the [$52 billion] (corrected by company after the call) that you mentioned, our investment grade portfolio is around $45 billion and our below investment grade private credit portfolio, which to your point, I would consider to be higher risk, that's around $4 billion to $4.5 billion. It's about 1% of our general account assets. It is focused on middle-market loans to private equity sponsored companies, but it's also quite diverse by issuer sector and sponsors, so there's no real concentrations there. And we do manage, underwrite and rate most of those assets in-house.

    就您所提及的[520億美元](電話會議後公司更正)而言,我們的投資等級投資組合約為450億美元,而我們低於投資等級的私人信貸投資組合(正如您所說,我認為風險更高)約為40億至45億美元。這大約占我們一般帳戶資產的1%。它專注於向私募股權支持的公司提供中端市場貸款,但其發行人行業和發起人也相當多元化,因此沒有真正的集中度。而且,我們大部分的資產都是自主管理、核保和評等。

  • And as I suggested, I would see this as being at the lower end of the risk spectrum, and about 90% of those assets are actually priced by an external vendor each quarter; and we've also executed multiple third-party sales from that portfolio, which I think also validates the asset valuations.

    正如我所建議的,我認為這屬於風險較低的範疇,而且其中約 90% 的資產實際上每個季度都由外部供應商定價;我們還從該投資組合中執行了多次第三方銷售,我認為這也驗證了資產估值的合理性。

  • To your point about performance, I think our investment grade private placement portfolio has actually done the same or better than our public portfolio, so we have no concerns with that part of the portfolio. And on the private credit portfolio, performance has also been strong even with COVID and relatively recent rate increases, and our credit experience is still comfortably within our underwriting loss assumption. So, really quite happy with both parts of the strategy.

    關於您提到的績效問題,我認為我們的投資等級私募投資組合實際上表現與我們的公開投資組合持平或更好,因此我們對這部分投資組合沒有任何擔憂。而在私人信貸組合方面,即使受到新冠疫情和近期利率上漲的影響,業績也依然強勁,我們的信貸經驗仍然完全在承保損失假設範圍內。所以,我對策略的這兩個部分都非常滿意。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • Okay, and then looking down a little bit on that portfolio composition, private equity, the $18 billion there. Can you talk about the ALDA-related charges this quarter and the extent to which private equity played a role or any other segment played a role?

    好的,然後稍微看一下投資組合構成,私募股權,那裡有 180 億美元。您能否談談本季與ALDA相關的費用,以及私募股權或其他任何領域在其中發揮的作用?

  • Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

  • Sure. Thanks for the follow-up. So, yes, in terms of ALDA performance this quarter, as I think we disclosed, the ALDA returns did improve. Both real estate and private equity were actually better than Q3. The area that was actually worse was infrastructure, which, over the long-term, has actually been very strong for us.

    當然。謝謝你的後續跟進。所以,是的,就本季ALDA的表現而言,正如我們之前所揭露的那樣,ALDA的回報率確實有所提高。房地產和私募股權的表現其實都比第三季好。實際上情況更糟的是基礎設施,但從長遠來看,這方面對我們來說其實非常有利。

  • Private equity: it did underperform, but to your point, it is a large portfolio and so we would expect to see some variability from quarter-to-quarter. Obviously, given some of the broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty, there's going to be a little bit of noise there. But, at the same time, I think strong public markets, the likelihood of short-term rate declines as well as, I think, improving M&A and IPO activity on the middle market, private equity, section of the market -- I think is -- I think all of those make us cautiously optimistic of an improvement in 2026.

    私募股權:它的表現確實不如預期,但正如您所說,這是一個龐大的投資組合,因此我們預計季度之間會出現一些波動。顯然,考慮到一些更廣泛的經濟和地緣政治不確定性,這方面肯定會有一些波動。但同時,我認為強勁的公開市場、短期利率下降的可能性,以及我認為中端市場、私募股權市場併購和IPO活動的改善——我認為——我認為所有這些因素都讓我們對2026年的改善持謹慎樂觀態度。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • So I'll be quick here. So, if you buy the notion that sponsors are going to be active as in: returning capital to investors, IPOing, all the things you referred to. Is that supportive of ALDA performance, like the private equity performance, or, yeah, how would you describe that?

    那我就長話短說了。所以,如果你認同發起人會積極參與,例如:向投資者返還資金、進行首次公開發行(IPO)以及你提到的所有事情。這是否對ALDA的業績,例如私募股權的業績,起到支撐作用?或者,你會如何描述這種情況?

  • Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

  • I think it would be positive. I'd be looking forward to more of the IPO and M&A activity. I think it'll improve liquidity. It'll improve price discovery and I think it will improve go-forward returns.

    我認為這會是件好事。我期待看到更多IPO和併購活動。我認為這將改善流動性。這有助於提高價格發現率,我認為也會提高未來的收益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Darko Mihelic, RBC Capital Markets.

    Darko Mihelic,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow-up on the ALDA question there, a slightly different angle though. I am curious on how you're capable of growing the ALDA portfolio but not having the sensitivity to ALDA go up, and, in fact, the sensitivity is going down? So, if I just look at it, it's up -- I don't know $7.5 billion over the last two years, but your sensitivity is actually down a little bit. So, what is it that you're doing there to -- what is -- what am I missing in the sort of mark calculation?

    我只是想就 ALDA 的問題做個後續說明,不過角度稍微不一樣。我很好奇,你們是如何做到在增加ALDA投資組合的同時,還能保證對ALDA的敏感度不會上升,甚至反而下降的?所以,如果我只看數據的話,它上升了——我不知道,過去兩年上升了75億美元,但你的敏感度實際上略有下降。所以,你在那裡做什麼——是什麼——我在分數計算中遺漏了什麼?

  • Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Global Chief Investment Officer

  • Hi, Darko, it's Trevor. Thanks for the question. So, it's actually not that complicated. So we do have on the balance sheet, I think $62 billion, $63 billion of ALDA in total, but it backs a different group of liabilities, some of which are guaranteed, which is shareholder risk, and some of which is participating or adjustable, which is policyholder risk. So, basically we expect the ALDA backing the guaranteed liabilities to be flat and slowly decline as those liabilities age and if we do more reinsurance transactions. At the same time, the ALDA backing the adjustable and participating liabilities, where investment experience is passed back to the policyholders, will grow as those businesses grow. So, basically what you're seeing is that the overall ALDA portfolio that you see on the balance sheet may continue to grow, but not the income exposure for shareholders, and that's why you're seeing it slowly decline.

    嗨,Darko,我是Trevor。謝謝你的提問。所以,其實沒有那麼複雜。所以,我們的資產負債表上確實有 620 億美元到 630 億美元的 ALDA,但它支持著另一組負債,其中一些是擔保的,這是股東風險;另一些是參與型或可調整型的,這是保單持有人風險。因此,我們基本上預計,為擔保負債提供支援的 ALDA 將保持平穩,並隨著這些負債的到期和我們進行更多再保險交易而緩慢下降。同時,為可調整和參與型負債提供支援的 ALDA(投資經驗回饋給保單持有人)也會隨著這些企業的成長而成長。所以,基本上你看到的是,資產負債表上顯示的ALDA整體投資組合可能會繼續增長,但股東的收入敞口不會繼續增長,這就是為什麼你看到它正在緩慢下降的原因。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • Okay, I figured it was something like that, but that's great.

    好吧,我猜大概是這樣,那太好了。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Hung Ko for any closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給洪高先生,請他作總結發言。

  • Hung Ko - Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

    Hung Ko - Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

  • Thank you operator. We'll be available after the call if there are any follow-up questions. Have a good day everyone.

    謝謝接線生。通話結束後,如有任何後續問題,我們將隨時為您解答。祝大家今天過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This brings to a close today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。

  • Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

    感謝您的參與,祝您有個愉快的一天。