Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Medpace Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call may be recorded.

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Kevin Brady, Medpace's Executive Director of Finance. You may begin.

Good morning, and thank you for joining Medpace's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Also on the call today is our President and CEO, August Troendle; and our CFO and COO of Laboratory Operations, Jesse Geiger.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our remarks and responses to your questions during this teleconference may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent assumptions with known and unknown risk and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations, including the impact of the changes to the revenue recognition standards. These factors are discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Please note that we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements in the future even if estimates change. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of today's forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date after today.

During this call, we will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not superior to or a replacement for the comparable GAAP measures, but we believe these measures help investors gain a more complete understanding of results. A reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the earnings press release and earnings call presentation slides provided in connection with today's call. The slides are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.medpace.com.

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Jesse Geiger.

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. As August mentioned in our earnings release, the business environment remained steady in the third quarter and cancellations have continued at normal levels within our historical range. Net new business awards entering backlog in the third quarter increased 25.4% from the prior year to $285.4 million, resulting in a 1.32 net book-to-bill. Ending backlog as of September 30 was $1.2 billion, an increase of 19.9% from the prior year.

Revenue was $216.2 million in the third quarter of 2019, which represents year-over-year growth of 20.6% on a reported basis and 21% on a constant currency organic basis. As anticipated, revenue growth on a sequential basis slowed in Q3. This reflects the anticipated air pocket we projected for the second half of 2019 as a result of higher cancellations in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019. Third quarter reimbursed out-of-pocket expenses of $71 million were relatively consistent with Q1 and Q2 and represented 32.8% of revenue.

In the third quarter, Medpace Investors, LLC, which is a related party of Medpace, completed a tender offer and purchased approximately 229,000 vested stock options from Medpace employees. Medpace was not a party to this transaction. There were no changes to the terms of the stock options, and the same stock options that were previously held by employees and tendered are still outstanding and now held by Medpace Investors, LLC. Since the tender was initiated by an economic interest holder of the company, GAAP requires Medpace to account for this as if the employee stock options were settled and new stock options were issued to Medpace Investors, LLC at the fair value as of the transaction date. This resulted in the recognition of an additional $5.1 million of GAAP stock-based compensation expense recorded in selling, general and administrative expenses in the third quarter.

EBITDA of $34.8 million decreased 6.4% compared to $37.1 million in the third quarter of 2018. On a constant currency basis, third quarter EBITDA decreased 8% compared to the prior year. EBITDA margin for the quarter was 16.1% compared to 20.7% in the prior year period. The decrease was primarily attributable to higher employee-related costs partially offset by higher revenue.

In the third quarter of 2019, GAAP net income was $24 million compared to GAAP net income of $19.3 million in the prior year period. Adjusted net income of $27 million in the third quarter increased 8% compared to $25 million in the prior year. Adjusted net income growth was primarily driven by revenue growth partially offset by higher employee-related costs and reimbursed out-of-pocket expenses.

GAAP net income per diluted share for the quarter was $0.63 compared to $0.52 in the prior year period. Third quarter 2019 adjusted net income per diluted share of $0.71 grew 6% versus third quarter 2018 adjusted net income per diluted share of $0.67. And we did not purchase any shares in the third quarter.

Regarding customer concentration, our top 5 and top 10 customers represent roughly 20% and 30%, respectively, of our total year-to-date revenue.

In the third quarter, we generated $64.3 million in cash flow from operating activities, and our net days sales outstanding decreased compared to the second quarter from negative 6.6 days to negative 12.5 days. And we ended the quarter with $79.3 million of cash.

Moving now to our updated guidance for 2019. Total revenue remains unchanged in the range of $840 million to $860 million for the full year 2019, representing growth of 19.2% to 22.1%. Our 2019 EBITDA also remains unchanged in the range of $144 million to $150 million compared to EBITDA of $140.9 million in 2018.

We anticipate our 2019 effective tax rate to be in the range of 20% to 21% compared to our previous guidance of 20% to 22%. We have assumed 37.6 million fully diluted shares for 2019, no stock repurchases in our guidance and exchange rates as of September 30, 2019.

Due to the change in tax guidance, we now forecast 2019 GAAP net income in the range of $94.9 million to $99.7 million and GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $2.51 to $2.64. On an adjusted basis, we forecast 2019 adjusted net income in the range of $107.2 million to $112 million and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.85 to $2.97.

With that, I will turn the call back over to the operator so we can take your questions.

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Dave Windley from Jefferies.

August, as per usual, I'd be interested in your characterization of the demand environment. And obviously, Jesse has also -- already said the cancellations were fairly normal. Just interested in, I guess, both general RFP flows and then also your experience from a win rate standpoint.

Dave, it's horrible. Things are really going bad. Don't shout real fast. Clearly -- yes, clearly. No, things have been really pretty stable. We saw a very strong period a year ago. It dropped off a little bit, and it's just been kind of sailing along at a reasonably nice run rate. And RFP flow has been reasonably stable. It may have ticked down numerically just slightly, but it is -- in the latest quarter, but it's still pretty strong. I think things are going along. Our win rate has remained in a comfortable range. It's dropped off a little bit in this quarter from some of the highest we hit in the last couple of quarters but is in a nice historical range. And so I think things are clear sailing.

Okay. Great. From a -- Jesse, maybe this one is for you and I'll yield the floor. But the guidance, as I look at what the midpoints of your guidance imply for the fourth quarter, suggest that, one, the burn rate drops off again, so that would be 2 quarters of fairly significant reduction in burn rate. And then your EBITDA margin would pop back up from this lower level, which after your explanation on the stock-based comp, I guess, is fairly apparent, fairly obvious. But if you could talk about maybe the air pocket impact and how your backlog conversion and progression looks and if that is a persistent effect beyond fourth quarter.

Sure. Thanks, Dave. So first, to address the cost item, you're right, it's the tender offer, which really elevated the SG&A expense in the third quarter. We do anticipate SG&A expenses to be more in line on a percentage of revenue basis with other quarters outside of Q3, kind of around that 11-or-so percent of revenue. I think if you normalize for the tender, that's about where it actually was in Q3 as well.

And then on the revenue side, yes, I mean we have seen some of the impact of the earlier cancellations in the third quarter. We do expect that to continue to have an impact for the next couple of quarters, again, in the fourth quarter and into the early part of next year. So it does result in a burn rate reduction that you noticed in the third quarter, and you're right, at kind of guidance midpoint that implies another step-down in the conversion rate in the fourth quarter. But the new projects -- that is somewhat being offset a little bit by good business environment and new projects that are progressing nicely. But we do think there'll be a couple quarter effect from what we're now seeing as the flow-through of those cancellations from a couple of quarters ago. And that definitely is...

It is revenue. I don't know how much the burn rate drop is related to that. I'm sure it is partially, but you also have to look at the burn rate, spiked to an unusually high -- historically high range. And I think it's returning back towards more the median of our longer-term average. So I don't look at a -- I don't expect it to go back to above 19% conversion rate. That's just not our historical experience. So I think that it's -- you've got some normalization to the mean.

Right. I think my interest was -- given that momentum in the first half of the year was to understand specifically what like stopped that momentum short, and the cancellations really do answer that question, I think. So...

Yes. I think -- right, the cancellations may have, in fact, accelerated some of that outside of the normal range. But I just -- I don't want to give you an impression that we're dipping down and we're going to come back up to 19%.

19% or 20%, yes.

Our next question is from Sandy Draper from SunTrust.

I guess, Jesse, just a clarification to make sure I get it. All of that excess stock comp was in SG&A. Correct? None of it was up in cost of goods?

Correct. All in SG&A.

Okay. Great. And either, I'm not sure, August or Jesse. On the hiring front, even with a sort of slowdown, you added looks like about another 200 people sort of consistent sequentially with what you've been adding. I guess the philosophy here is just continuing to hire ahead of the strong bookings and expectation of growing the revenue next year. Just trying to get some thoughts around the pace of hiring, how hard it is. And then is it pretty much, unless something changes dramatically for the better or worse, you're just going to consistently hire as much as you can and figure the business comes along to potentially support that?

Yes. Sandy, I think we're along our target of hiring about 20% a year. And I think we are going forward with that. You say a slowdown, we really haven't had much of a slowdown. Revenue growth dipped because of those cancellations. But there's some movement of people between projects, et cetera, a little bit less efficiency. But things are still growing nicely and along kind of a 20% rate that we do expect to drop off at some point. But right now, we had targeted 20% growth this year, and we're continuing with that rapid rate of growth.

Our next question is from John Kreger from William Blair.

August or Jesse, it seems like -- I think you've had 5 quarters now of backlog growth rate around 20%. Would it be reasonable to assume over the next year or 2 that's about where the company's kind of top line growth will trend? Or is there anything else that you see in the backlog that would cause the number to perhaps be much lower than that?

I don't think that's a reasonable expectation going forward far into the future. I think that's where our current roll-off is. But we do see -- I suspect in the next -- in this next year with the election cycle and uncertainty around that, we will have some softening. And I do not believe that a 20% growth is a long-term expectation. Jesse, do you want to add to that?

No. That's -- I wouldn't say anything else.

That's helpful. August, anything else you'd kind of call out in the industry in terms of sort of what's hot and then what's maybe cooling off? It seems like you continue to see a little bit of shift in the therapeutic concentration.

No. Look, I think that Oncology has remained very strong. And a lot of -- I think you see the other areas of other -- kind of some other rare diseases that don't -- aren't easily fittable in one of the buckets we have. But I think things have been reasonably consistent across the therapeutic areas with -- outside strength in Oncology.

Great. And then lastly, Jesse, any change in the bad debt accruals that you had in the quarter?

No. And we had no bad debt in the third quarter.

Our next question is from Erin Wright from Crédit Suisse.

In terms of the competitive landscape here, are you seeing any sort of changes in the pricing environment? Is it fairly rational in your view? And are you seeing any new players dipping into the smaller biopharma category? I'm just curious if you're seeing any changes out there from a competitive standpoint.

Thanks, Erin. No. It remains pretty consistent. Nothing that we're noticing unusual, and no new competitors. It's a pretty consistent group that we are up against on a regular basis.

Okay. Great. And then also could you give us an update on the central lab business? I haven't heard you talk about it in a while. And I guess is that still an area of further investment for you? Or how have the trends been, I guess, across the central lab business for you?

Sure. Yes, the lab offering -- it's growing. Lab activity is growing along --- right along with the -- with kind of the overall company rates. We have made investments there this year in expanding some of our facilities that we have in different locations. And very consistent with other parts of the business where we're expanding for growth in both people and the labs, a little more CapEx heavy, so there's some investment in new platforms and some real estate to continue that growth. But it's moving along nicely, along with the rest of the organization.

Our next question is from Donald Hooker from KeyBanc.

So with regards to the hiring activity, are you guys using any contract labor at this point? Or is it all FTEs?

A little bit of contract labor. Probably it's up a little bit from what it has been over the past couple of years, but still fairly minimal relative to the overall employee costs. And any of those contractor costs, just to clarify, are not included in our headcount numbers that we quote.

Got you. Would that be maybe a little bit of a headwind to expenses? Or is it too minimal to have any real effect?

I think it's so small that it's not -- on a relative basis, that it's not really having an impact.

Okay. Super. And then I guess the other question you're going to be getting a lot and you have been getting a lot in terms of the balance sheet, what's the current thinking there in terms of an appropriate debt ratio for Medpace now that you're building cash reserves?

Yes. I mean longer term, we're certainly comfortable with 1 turn or 2 of leverage on the balance sheet. Right now, we're in a net cash position. Our capital allocation priorities are to continue to focus on organic investment. The capital spending will be a little bit heavier. It ticked up in the third quarter. It will be -- should be continuing for the next couple of quarters as we build out some of the real estate. But then beyond that, we'll look toward share repurchases opportunistically at some point. And then longer term, we may consider a dividend. But as far as how much of our operating cash funds that versus what we have taken advantage of an opportunity and put a little bit of leverage on the balance sheet, we're certainly comfortable with that up to 1 turn or 2.

Okay. Super. And then the last one for me, I guess in the past as we're trying to sort of -- growing your employee base so rapidly and your revenues as well, how do we think about margins next year kind of pre-EBITDA? I think in the past, you've talked about kind of a long-term target of 17% to 17.5%. I just want to make sure I have that right, sort of a normalized EBITDA margin that we should expect for Medpace. Is that fair?

Yes. I mean I think we will give more clarity on EBITDA guidance and margin guidance in February. But I guess the comment -- I'll make 2 comments today on the cost going into next year. As August mentioned earlier, we're continuing to hire aggressively. We do expect that -- or anticipate that there could be some impact of top line softening next year related to the election. But we do plan to hire -- certainly start the year hiring, continuing to hire aggressively in light of our organic growth model and our training mentality. So we'll continue to add heads at a pretty aggressive pace entering the year.

And then the other comment I'd make is we do have, as a reminder, the new building coming online here at the corporate headquarters. That will be a $6 million additional cost for the year starting in the second quarter at about $2 million a quarter. But we'll come back in February with more refined EBITDA and even the margin guidance. But I just wanted to point out those 2 influences as we head into the year.

Our next question is from Stephen Baxter from Wolfe Research.

Just wanted to make 100% clear on the discussion on the stock comp charge. Can you confirm that the $5 million charge was not excluded from your adjusted earnings in the quarter? I don't see anything for it in the reconciliation. But I just want to make 100% sure I'm not messing up.

Steve, that's correct. We've not made any add-backs or adjustments for the tender offer stock comp or any stock comp.

Okay. Great. So it sounds to me like the charge wasn't assumed in your prior guidance but you've been able to digest it within the existing range. So I guess, first, can you confirm that? And then by definition, would it be reasonable to think that EBITDA guidance would have gone higher absent that charge?

Yes. I mean it was -- there was a lot of considerations as we think about the potential impact on the tender as far as what the level of participation would be and what the stock price would be on the settlement date. But no, we did not assume $5.1 million of additional stock comp in our guidance. And so we're either -- we're higher in that range or guidance could have been potentially higher had we not had the charge.

Okay. And then I wanted to come back to the share repurchase question in a slightly different way. When you were last active on share repurchase in 2017, your leverage was already over 1 turn. So now you've been in a net cash position for 2 quarters. I was hoping that you could more contrast, I guess, your previous outlook and what drove you to get active in the market the last time in 2017 against your current process. And hopefully, some insight about what you need to see before getting more active. I get that you're talking about some additional capital spending. But year-to-date cash flow is significantly in excess of your CapEx. So trying to understand whether you're signaling that there's going to be some material step-up in a very -- from a very low level of CapEx that we're seeing currently.

The stock price is in the 30s.

So we're not going to get into specific price points on share repurchases. If you look at our prior trading activity, we had been more and continue to be of the view that it's better to be more opportunistic rather than programmatic about just buying shares because we have cash. And so we will look for opportunities in the future as we have in the past.

Now the stock -- the CapEx will be stepping up a little bit. It won't be that material. It's up in the third quarter to $6.2 million. We anticipate something around that range or a little bit higher in the fourth quarter. And that could bleed in -- some of that could bleed into next year, early half of the year as we fit out the building. But it's not going to be that much of a material impact on our cash.

Okay. Fair enough. And then one last one on your customer concentration. I wanted to ask about the large and midsize client base. Obviously, the small biopharma revenue is up over 30% this year, but the remainder is tracking down a little bit. I guess as you look at what you have currently in backlog, is it reasonable to think that on a dollar basis at least, that you can see large pharma, midsize pharma stabilize a bit as we look into the next couple of years? Or do you think that, that's going to kind of be a little bit of a melting ice cube as you allocate more resources towards the small biopharma opportunity?

I think more of a melting ice cube. Our focus is on small biopharma, and that's where a lot of the continued opportunities are and where we're winning business.

(Operator Instructions) And our next question is from Dave Windley from Jefferies.

Just coming back for a couple of more clarifications. Jesse, you said on the costs from the building, I think you said $6 million. In the past, I've heard $8 million. I wanted to make sure I heard that right on your operating costs for the new corporate building for 2020.

It's an $8 million annual cost of $2 million per quarter. The building will be available in April. So it starts in the second quarter. $6 million for 2020, $8 million for 2021.

Right. Okay. So is that a quarter later than you had planned to open it before?

It's looked a little bit, but it's reasonably on track.

Okay. Okay, fine. And then second, on -- from a therapeutic mix standpoint, August, I'm curious how you think about -- Oncology has grown for you, it's grown for everybody. How do you think about the diversification within oncology project portfolio that you have? Is there -- are there mechanism of action, concentrations -- platform concentrations where you need to be wary of, say, negative results from a particular project that would have ripple effects in a class of drugs?

I don't think so. We're pretty diversified in Oncology. And you talk about some of the very high level of spending on PD-1 inhibitors. We just don't have that kind of concentration. I think a lot of that really is large pharma driven and we're not involved. Now we do have a number of studies that involve other agents in synergy and in combination with those agents. But it's just not an overwhelming part of our Oncology business and it is pretty broad. So immuno-oncology is a large part of it, but it's pretty diverse there.

Our next question is from Donald Hooker from KeyBanc.

Great. One last quick one to follow up in terms of capital spending. I know you guys have talked about you're growing faster and obviously adding capacity. On the capital spending side, there's been some lumpiness there. How do we think about capital spending going forward in terms of your lab space and facilities?

Yes. So we -- this year's capital spending includes some growth capital in each of our lab locations, so that sets us up. The lab tends to be a little bit lumpier on some of the spending. That gives us some runway going into the next couple of years. But it's going to be continued spending but not -- it's a smaller part of the business so it doesn't have that big of an impact on the overall capital spending.

At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Kevin Brady for closing remarks.

Thank you for joining us today on this call and for your continued interest in Medpace. We look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter 2019 earnings call.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.