MDC Holdings Inc (MDC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome. Please hold for Mr. Derek Kimmerle, VP and Chief Accounting Officer. Please go ahead.

你好，歡迎光臨。請等候副總裁兼首席會計官 Derek Kimmerle 先生。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to M.D.C. Holdings 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today, I have Larry Mizel, our Executive Chairman; David Mandarich, Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Martin, Chief Financial Officer. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay. For information on how to access the replay, please visit our website at mdcholdings.com.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，早上好，歡迎參加 M.D.C. Holdings 2023 年第三季收益電話會議。今天與我一起通話的是我們的執行主席 Larry Mizel； David Mandarich，執行長；以及財務長鮑勃馬丁（Bob Martin）。 （操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音，可供重播。有關如何訪問重播的信息，請訪問我們的網站 mdcholdings.com。

Before turning the call over to Larry and David, it should be noted that certain statements made during this conference call including, those related to M.D.C.'s business, financial condition, results of operation, cash flows, strategies and prospects, and responses to questions may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在將電話轉給拉里和戴維之前，應注意，本次電話會議中所作的某些聲明，包括與 M.D.C. 的業務、財務狀況、經營成果、現金流、戰略和前景以及對問題的答復相關的聲明，可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所界定的前瞻性陳述。

These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the company's actual results, performance, or achievements to be materially different from the results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These and other factors that could impact the company's actual performance are set forth in the company's third quarter 2023 Form 10-Q, which is expected to be filed with the SEC today.

這些陳述涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致公司的實際結果、績效或成就與前瞻性陳述表達或暗示的結果、績效或成就有重大差異。這些以及其他可能影響公司實際業績的因素均列於公司 2023 年第三季 10-Q 表中，預計該表將於今天向美國證券交易委員會提交。

It should also be noted that SEC Regulation G requires that certain information accompany the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Any information required by Regulation G is posted on our website with our webcast slides.

還應注意，美國證券交易委員會 G 條例要求在使用非 GAAP 財務指標時必須附上某些資訊。規則 G 所要求的任何資訊都會與網路廣播投影片一起發佈在我們的網站上。

And now, I will turn the call over to Mr. Mizel for his opening remarks.

現在，我將請米澤爾先生致開幕詞。

Thank you for joining us today as we go over our results for the third quarter of 2023 and provide an update on our company's outlook. M.D.C. generated strong profitability in the third quarter, posting net income of $107 million, or $1.40 per diluted share. We closed 1,968 homes at an average sales price of 552,000, resulting in home sales revenues of $1.1 billion.

感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧 2023 年第三季的業績並提供有關公司前景的最新資訊。 M.D.C. 第三季獲利強勁，淨收入達 1.07 億美元，即每股收益 1.40 美元。我們以平均 552,000 美元的價格成交了 1,968 套房屋，房屋銷售收入達 11 億美元。

We expanded our gross margin from the home sales by 280 basis points on a sequential basis to 19.2%. We also ended the quarter with $1.8 billion in cash and marketable securities, which gives us financial strength to make significant investments in our business and pay our industry-leading dividend of $2.20 per share on an annualized basis.

我們的房屋銷售毛利率較上月擴大了 280 個基點，達到 19.2%。我們還在本季結束時持有 18 億美元現金和有價證券，這為我們提供了財務實力，可以對我們的業務進行大量投資，並按年支付每股 2.20 美元的行業領先股息。

We continue to experience solid demand trends in the third quarter despite the rise in mortgage rates, as we generated a net absorption pace of 2.4 homes per community per month. The lack of existing homes supply, coupled with our ability to offer financial incentives has attracted more buyers to the new home market and has resulted in market share gains for the publicly traded homebuilders. We believe this dynamic will remain in place for the foreseeable future and have a number of sales tools at our disposal, to drive traffic to our communities and address affordability concerns.

儘管抵押貸款利率上升，但我們在第三季度繼續經歷強勁的需求趨勢，因為我們的淨吸收速度為每個社區每月 2.4 套房屋。現有房屋供應的不足，加上我們提供財務激勵的能力，吸引了更多買家進入新房市場，並導致上市房屋建築商的市場份額增加。我們相信這種動態在可預見的未來仍將存在，我們擁有多種銷售工具，可以吸引流量到我們的社區並解決負擔能力問題。

From a macro perspective, we continue to see positive data points that bode well for our industry. GDP continues to grow at a healthy rate defying expectations of an economic slowdown. The latest Non-Farm Payroll report showed that U.S. employers added 336,000 jobs in September, well above economic expectations and home prices remain resilient nationally, according to the Case-Shiller Index, which was up 1% year-over-year in its most recent reading and up 6% since their low in January.

從宏觀角度來看，我們繼續看到對我們的行業有利的正面數據點。國內生產毛額繼續以健康的速度成長，打破了經濟放緩的預期。最新的非農業就業報告顯示，美國9月新增就業人數33.6萬個，遠高於經濟預期，全國房價仍保持強勁。凱斯-席勒指數顯示，該指數最新讀數較上年同期上漲1%，較1月的低點上漲了6%。

While these positive economic trends may compel the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer, they provide a solid foundation for our industry and gives consumers the ability and confidence to move forward with their home purchases. In light of this positive economic background, M.D.C. has been focused on investing in our homebuilding operations in an effort to grow our local market presence.

雖然這些積極的經濟趨勢可能迫使聯準會在較長時間內維持較高利率，但它們為我們的行業提供了堅實的基礎，並使消費者有能力和信心繼續購買房屋。鑑於這種積極的經濟背景，M.D.C. 一直致力於投資我們的住宅建築業務，以努力擴大我們在當地市場的份額。

Land acquisition activity was up sharply in the third quarter and we expect to continue this trend in the fourth quarter. Our focus continues, to be on the more affordable segments of the market, which is where we expect to see the strongest demand in the foreseeable future.

第三季土地收購活動急劇上升，我們預期第四季這一趨勢仍將延續。我們的重點仍是市場上價格較實惠的部分，我們預計在可預見的未來這些部分的需求將最為強勁。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape, with a quarter-end debt-to-capital ratio of 31.2% and more cash and marketable securities than our senior notes outstanding. We also have a favorable debt profile, with no senior notes due until 2030, and our weighted average cost of the debt, on those senior notes of 4.3%. Thanks to an easing of supply chain constraints and a shift to more spec home production, our inventory turns have improved and our cash balance has grown. Maintaining a strong balance sheet has always been a core principle of our company and this remains true today, with a favorable industry outlook and attractive product portfolio, and a strong balance sheet, M.D.C. is well-positioned to finish 2023 on a strong note and carry this momentum into the New Year.

我們的資產負債表依然狀況良好，季末的負債資本比率為 31.2%，且現金和有價證券多於未償還的優先票據。我們的債務狀況也很好，2030 年之前沒有優先票據到期，這些優先票據的加權平均債務成本為 4.3%。由於供應鏈限制的緩解和向更多規格國內生產的轉變，我們的庫存週轉率有所改善，現金餘額也有所增加。保持強勁的資產負債表一直是我們公司的核心原則，今天仍然如此，憑藉良好的行業前景和有吸引力的產品組合以及強勁的資產負債表，M.D.C. 完全有能力以強勁的業績結束 2023 年，並將這一勢頭帶入新的一年。

We had over 2,700 homes in backlog at the end of the third quarter and another 2,681 homes completed or under construction, which puts us in a great position to hit our delivery goals for the fourth quarter. Our homebuilding operations are located in some of the fastest-growing markets in the country and we plan to grow our presence in these markets, through our ongoing land acquisition efforts.

截至第三季末，我們有超過 2,700 套房屋積壓，另有 2,681 套房屋已完工或在建，這為我們實現第四季度的交付目標提供了有利條件。我們的住宅建築業務位於國內一些成長最快的市場，我們計劃透過持續的土地收購努力擴大我們在這些市場的影響力。

We are excited about the new community openings. We have plans for the coming quarters and look forward to them as we draw closer to next year's spring selling season. We made progress on a number of fronts in the third quarter and I am proud of how our team have executed through the first 9 months of this year.

我們對新社區的開放感到非常興奮。我們已經制定了未來幾季的計劃，隨著明年春季銷售季節的臨近，我們對這些計劃充滿期待。我們在第三季在許多方面取得了進展，我為我們團隊在今年前 9 個月的表現感到自豪。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David, who will provide more detail on our operations this quarter.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給戴維，他將提供有關我們本季營運的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Larry. Order trends were consistent across our homebuilding platform during the third quarter. As the absorption pace in the West Mountain and East regions, all came in at 2.4 -- net sales per community per month. The gross order trends followed a typical seasonal pattern with July coming out as our best month, followed by a slowdown in August and a rebound in September.

謝謝，拉里。第三季度，我們整個住宅建築平台的訂單趨勢保持一致。西山區和東部地區的吸收速度均為每個社區每月淨銷售額 2.4。總訂單趨勢遵循典型的季節性模式，其中七月份表現最好，八月放緩，九月反彈。

We continue to favor a more spec-driven operating model during these times as it allows us to better utilize financing incentives, lowers the probability of cancellations and caters to the needs of the first-time homebuyer.

在當前時期，我們繼續青睞更規格驅動的營運模式，因為它使我們能夠更好地利用融資激勵，降低取消的可能性，並滿足首次購房者的需求。

During the third quarter, nearly 80% of our gross sales were for spec homes. We plan on maintaining a healthy level of spec home production through the end of the year, to ensure we have a sufficient inventory for the spring selling season. Our gross margins from home sales, excluding impairments was 19.7 for the third quarter, demonstrating our ability to generate healthy margins in a rising mortgage rate environment.

第三季度，我們總銷售額的近 80% 是樣品屋。我們計劃在年底前維持健康的樣品屋生產水平，以確保在春季銷售季節有足夠的庫存。我們第三季的房屋銷售毛利率（不包括減損損失）為 19.7%，這表明我們有能力在抵押貸款利率上升的環境下創造健康的利潤率。

As of the end of the third quarter, the average gross margin on homes and backlog were similar to the homes that we closed in the third quarter, though, we expect that homes sold and closed in the fourth quarter will likely carry higher incentives. Financing incentives continue to be the most effective tool in addressing buyers affordability concerns and serve as a very competitive advantage over the existing home market.

截至第三季末，房屋和積壓訂單的平均毛利率與我們在第三季成交的房屋相似，但我們預計第四季度銷售和成交的房屋可能會帶來更高的誘因。融資獎勵仍然是解決買家負擔能力問題的最有效工具，並且在現有房屋市場上具有強大的競爭優勢。

We continue to see healthy traffic in our communities and in our website. A sign that buyers remain motivated to own a home, provided they can find something that fits their budget. Through rate buy downs and closing cost assistance, we can lower the monthly payment and upfront costs for our home buyers.

我們持續看到社區和網站的流量保持健康。這表明，只要買家能找到適合自己預算的房子，他們仍然有購買房屋的動機。透過降低利率和協助結算成本，我們可以降低購屋者的每月還款額和前期成本。

Overall, I am pleased with our company's performance this quarter and our outlook as we head into the end of the year. New home demand is proven to be resilient in the face of rising interest rates, thanks to the adjustments we've made to our sales process and our business model.

總體而言，我對公司本季的業績以及年底的前景感到滿意。由於我們對銷售流程和商業模式所做的調整，事實證明，面對利率上升，新房需求仍具有韌性。

The time to build and deliver a home is down considerably from the beginning of the year, allowing us to turn our inventory faster and more efficiently. We also believe the inherent competitive advantage we and other public homebuilders have over smaller builders is strong due to the high cost of capital. As a result, we are very optimistic about the near and long-term outlook for the company.

與年初相比，建造和交付房屋的時間大大縮短，使我們能夠更快、更有效率地週轉庫存。我們也認為，由於資本成本高，我們和其他公共房屋建築商相對於小型建築商具有強大的固有競爭優勢。因此，我們對該公司的近期和長期前景非常樂觀。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to Bob, who will provide more detail on our financial results this quarter.

說到這裡，我想把麥克風交給鮑勃，他將提供有關本季財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. During the third quarter, we generated net income of $107.3 million or $1.40 per diluted share, representing a 26% decrease from the third quarter of 2022. Pre-tax income from our homebuilding operations for the quarter was $127.4 million, which represented a 24% decrease from the third quarter of 2022.

謝謝，大衛，大家早安。第三季度，我們實現淨收入 1.073 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.40 美元，較 2022 年第三季下降 26%。本季我們住宅建築業務的稅前收入為 1.274 億美元，較 2022 年第三季下降 24%。

This decrease was primarily due to a decline in home sale revenues as a result of lower closing volume, as well as a 350 basis point decrease in gross margin, from home sales year-over-year. Despite the decline in home sale revenues, we did benefit from a 70 basis point improvement year-over-year in our total SG&A expense as a percentage of home sale revenues.

下降的主要原因是房屋銷售成交量下降導致房屋銷售收入下降，以及毛利率較去年同期下降 350 個基點。儘管房屋銷售收入有所下降，但我們的總銷售、一般及行政開支佔房屋銷售收入的百分比同比改善了 70 個基點，這為我們帶來了收益。

Our financial services pre-tax income for the quarter was $12.4 million, which represented a 29% decrease from the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower closing volume within our homebuilding operations as well as the impact of special financing programs offered during the quarter.

本季我們的金融服務稅前收入為 1,240 萬美元，較去年同期下降 29%。下降主要是由於我們的房屋建築業務的成交量下降以及本季提供的特殊融資計劃的影響。

Both our homebuilding and financial services pre-tax income benefited from increased interest income during the quarter. On a consolidated basis, we recognized $22.9 million of interest income during the third quarter compared with only $2.9 million in the third quarter of 2022.

本季度，我們的房屋建築和金融服務稅前收入均受益於利息收入的增加。從合併基礎來看，我們在第三季確認了 2,290 萬美元的利息收入，而 2022 年第三季僅為 290 萬美元。

Our income tax expense of $32.5 million for the third quarter represented an effective tax rate of approximately 23%, a slight increase from 22.3% in the prior-year quarter. We continue to expect our effective tax rate for the full year to be roughly 23%. This estimate does not include any discrete items or any potential changes in tax rates or policies.

我們第三季的所得稅費用為 3,250 萬美元，有效稅率約為 23%，略高於去年同期的 22.3%。我們繼續預計全年有效稅率約為23%。此估算不包括任何單一項目或任何潛在的稅率或政策變更。

We delivered 1,968 homes during the quarter, which was in line with our previously estimated range for the quarter of 1,850 to 2,000 closings. Homes closed during the quarter had a construction build time of approximately 200 days, which was a significant improvement on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. We expect build times to continue to trend down, based on the projected build times of our homes under construction.

我們在本季交付了 1,968 套房屋，與我們先前估計的 1,850 至 2,000 套成交量一致。本季成交的房屋建造時間約為 200 天，與去年同期和上一季相比都有顯著改善。根據我們在建房屋的預計建造時間，我們預計建造時間將繼續呈下降趨勢。

As a result of the cycle time improvements, we converted 41% of our homes in beginning inventory, excluding model homes into home closings in the third quarter. In addition, with our increased focus on spec production 26% of our closings were both sold and closed within the quarter. We currently anticipate deliveries for the 2023 fourth quarter of between 2,200 and 2,400 homes, which at the midpoint would bring our full year closings to over 8,100 homes.

由於週期時間的改善，我們在第三季將期初庫存中 41% 的房屋（不包括樣品屋）轉換為房屋交割。此外，隨著我們更加重視規格生產，26% 的成交量在本季度內均已售出並完成結算。我們目前預計 2023 年第四季的交付量將在 2,200 至 2,400 套之間，這樣以中位數計算，全年交付量將超過 8,100 套。

The average selling price of homes delivered during the quarter decreased 6% year-over-year to $552,000. The decrease was driven by an increased incentives, changes in base pricing and a shift in the mix of closings from Colorado, to Arizona. We expect the Arizona price of homes delivered in the 2023 fourth quarter to be between $545,000 and $555,000.

本季交付的房屋平均售價年減 6% 至 552,000 美元。下降的原因在於激勵措施增加、基本定價變化以及成交地點從科羅拉多州轉移到亞利桑那州。我們預計 2023 年第四季交付亞利桑那州的房屋價格將在 545,000 美元至 555,000 美元之間。

Gross margin from home sales for the quarter was 19.2% compared to 22.7% in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding inventory impairments, gross margin from home sales for the quarter was 19.7% compared to 24.7% in the prior-year quarter. This decrease was largely driven by an increase in incentives year-over-year, changes in base pricing and to a lesser extent, higher construction costs year-over-year.

本季房屋銷售毛利率為 19.2%，而 2022 年第三季為 22.7%。不包括庫存減值，本季房屋銷售毛利率為 19.7%，去年同期為 24.7%。這一下降主要是由於激勵措施較去年同期增加、基本價格變動以及（在較小程度上）建築成本較去年同期上漲所致。

On a sequential basis, gross margin from home sales for the quarter improved by 280 basis points. Excluding inventory impairments, gross margin from home sales improved 210 basis points from the second quarter of 2023. This improvement was the result of lower construction costs, along with lower incentive levels.

與上一季相比，本季房屋銷售毛利率提高了 280 個基點。不包括庫存減值，房屋銷售毛利率較 2023 年第二季提高了 210 個基點。這項改善是由於建築成本降低以及激勵程度降低。

As David mentioned, we do expect incentive levels to increase on homes sold and closed in the fourth quarter, due to the most recent move higher in mortgage interest rates. As a result, we are currently expecting gross margin from home sales for the 2023 fourth quarter of between 18% and 19.5%, assuming no impairments or warranty adjustments.

正如大衛所提到的，由於最近抵押貸款利率的上升，我們確實預計第四季度售出和成交的房屋的激勵水平將會增加。因此，我們目前預計 2023 年第四季房屋銷售毛利率在 18% 至 19.5% 之間（假設沒有減損或保固調整）。

Our total dollar SG&A expense for the 2023 third quarter was $101.3 million, which represented a decrease of $40.1 million from the prior year quarter. This decrease was primarily driven by our general administrative expenses due to a decrease in stock-based compensation expense and to a lesser extent, decreased salary and bonus expenses.

我們 2023 年第三季的總銷售、一般及行政支出為 1.013 億美元，比去年同期減少 4,010 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於股票薪酬費用減少導致的一般管理費用，以及在較小程度上工資和獎金費用的減少。

In the prior year quarter, we recognized $50 million of expense related to equity awards granted during the quarter. Equity awards granted during the current year quarter were performance-based and as such, no expense will be recognized until the performance metrics are profitable achievement.

去年同期，我們確認了與該季度授予的股權獎勵相關的 5,000 萬美元費用。本季度授予的股權獎勵是基於績效的，因此，在績效指標實現盈利之前不會確認任何費用。

The decreases in commissions and selling and marketing expenses were the results of the decrease in home closings year-over-year. We currently estimate that our general and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be between $50 million and 55 million.

佣金和銷售及行銷費用的減少是由於房屋成交量同比下降。我們目前估計，2023 年第四季的一般及行政開支將在 5,000 萬美元至 5,500 萬美元之間。

The dollar value of our net orders increased 532% year-over-year to $965 million, driven by an increase in gross orders and cancellation activity that has returned to more normal levels. Gross orders for the third quarter of 2023 were 2,227, which is a 42% increase from the prior-year quarter.

我們的淨訂單美元價值年增 532%，達到 9.65 億美元，這得益於總訂單量的增加和取消活動已恢復到更正常水平。 2023 年第三季的總訂單量為 2,227 份，較去年同期成長 42%。

Our cancellation rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 24% of gross orders. This compares to more elevated levels during the prior year quarter, as we work through our backlog of build-to-order homes. The average sales price of our net orders for the third quarter of 2023 was $570,000. On a sequential basis, this represented a 2% increase from the second quarter of 2023. This increase was a result of base price increases taken during both the second and third quarters of this year in the majority of our communities. Our active subdivision count was at 235 at the end of the quarter, up 7% from 220 a year ago.

我們 2023 年第三季的取消率為總訂單量的 24%。相比之下，去年同期的水平更高，因為我們正在處理積壓的按訂單建造的房屋。我們 2023 年第三季的淨訂單平均銷售價格為 57 萬美元。按季度計算，這比 2023 年第二季度增長了 2%。這一增長是由於今年第二季和第三季我們大多數社區的基本價格均有所上漲。截至本季末，我們的活躍細分數量為 235 個，比一年前 (220 個) 成長了 7%。

Looking at the graph on the right, the number of soon-to-be active communities continues to exceed the number of soon-to-be inactive communities at September 30, 2023. During the third quarter, we acquired 1,190 lots, resulting in a total land acquisition spend of $159 million and incurred $83 million of land development costs. This represented a significant increase in land acquisition from the first half of this year.

查看右側的圖表，截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，即將活躍的社群數量繼續超過即將不活躍的社群數量。在第三季度，我們收購了 1,190 塊土地，總土地收購支出為 1.59 億美元，並產生了 8,300 萬美元的土地開發成本。這意味著今年上半年土地收購量大幅增加。

As Larry mentioned, we expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter, as indicated by our land approval activity during the quarter. During the third quarter, we approved 2,347 lots for acquisition, which was our highest level since the first quarter of 2022. More importantly, exceeded the number of homes closed during the quarter, which allowed us to increase our controlled lot supply on sequential basis.

正如拉里所提到的，我們預計這一趨勢將在第四季度繼續，這從我們本季的土地審批活動可以看出。第三季度，我們批准了 2,347 個地塊的收購，這是自 2022 年第一季以來的最高水準。更重要的是，超過了本季成交的房屋數量，這使我們能夠連續增加受控地塊的供應。

We ended the quarter with 22,353 lots controlled. Additionally, we had 6,448 lots in various stages of due diligence, that still require approval by our asset management committee prior to being reflected within our controlled lot count. We ended the quarter with nearly $1.8 billion of cash and short-term investments, total liquidity of over $2.9 billion and no senior note maturities until January 2030.

截至本季末，我們已控制 22,353 個地塊。此外，我們還有 6,448 個地塊處於盡職調查的不同階段，仍需獲得資產管理委員會的批准才能反映在我們控制的地塊數量中。截至本季末，我們擁有近 18 億美元的現金和短期投資，總流動資金超過 29 億美元，直到 2030 年 1 月都沒有優先票據到期。

Our debt to capital ratio at the end of the quarter was 31.2% and our cash and short-term investments continue to exceed our homebuilding debt as of quarter end. We started 2,383 homes during the third quarter of 2023 representing a 162% increase over the prior year quarter. As a result, excluding model homes, we ended the quarter with 5,266 homes in inventory. This included 2,681 spec homes, 89% of which have been curated by our Home Gallery Design professionals. In addition, our inventory of completed spec homes remains low representing less than 5% of our homes in inventory at the end of the third quarter. With our pivot to building more spec homes along with the overall improvement in supply chain conditions. We've seen a meaningful improvement in our ability to turn our inventory.

本季末我們的債務資本比率為 31.2%，截至季度末，我們的現金和短期投資繼續超過我們的房屋建築債務。 2023 年第三季度，我們開工興建 2,383 棟房屋，比去年同期成長 162%。因此，不包括樣品房，本季末我們的庫存房屋數量為 5,266 套。其中包括 2,681 套樣品房，其中 89% 由我們的家居畫廊設計專業人士精心挑選。此外，我們已完工樣品屋的庫存仍然很低，截至第三季末，庫存房屋佔不到 5%。隨著我們轉向建造更多樣品屋以及供應鏈條件的全面改善。我們的庫存週轉能力有了顯著提升。

On a trailing 12 months basis. Our work in process inventory turnover improved 13% year-over-year to 2.1x our home cost of sales. We expect to drive further improvements in this metric in the near-term as we continue to leverage our curated spec production model.

基於過去 12 個月。我們的在製品庫存週轉率年增 13%，達到房屋銷售成本的 2.1 倍。隨著我們繼續利用我們精心策劃的規格生產模型，我們預計在短期內推動這項指標的進一步改善。

In summary, our current backlog and inventory of curated spec homes puts us in position for a strong end to 2023 and provides us the opportunity for year-over-year increases in home sale revenues and pre-tax income to start 2024.

總而言之，我們目前的積壓和精選樣品屋庫存使我們在 2023 年結束時能夠取得強勁業績，並為我們提供了在 2024 年初實現房屋銷售收入和稅前收入同比增長的機會。

While the most recent increases in mortgage interest rates will likely remain a headwind in the near term, our ability to buy down home-buyers mortgage interest rate and offer closing cost assistance remained very effective incentives to address affordability concerns. In terms of capital allocation, we remain committed to our industry-leading dividend and reinvesting in and growing our homebuilding operations.

雖然最近抵押貸款利率的上漲在短期內可能仍會是一個阻力，但我們降低購房者抵押貸款利率和提供成交成本援助的能力仍然是解決負擔能力問題的非常有效的激勵措施。在資本配置方面，我們仍然致力於業界領先的股息以及對我們的住宅建築業務的再投資和發展。

While we made significant progress with our land acquisition and approval activity during the third quarter, growing our land pipeline remains a top priority to position us for growth in future periods.

雖然我們在第三季的土地收購和審批活動取得了重大進展，但擴大我們的土地儲備仍然是我們未來成長的首要任務。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call back over to the operator to start our Q&A session.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，開始我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Stephen Kim from Evercore.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate all the color. I just wanted to get just as a housekeeping item, Bob, can you reiterate what you said for the number of specs you had at the end of the quarter? And how many of those were finished?

欣賞所有的色彩。我只是想作為一個整理事項，鮑勃，你可以重申一下你所說的本季末的規格數量嗎？其中有多少完成了？

I believe the number was about 2,681 for total specs. And the number that was finished, I think, was right around 250 as of the end of the quarter.

我認為總規格數量約為 2,681。我認為，截至本季末，完成的數量約為 250。

Okay. Got you. All right. And if we have that. Okay. So you're still -- you're running at about 11 -- a little over 11 specs per community, but not much more than one finished spec per community. So that's -- is this a level that you're -- do you feel like you've sort of arrived at kind of an optimal level of specs? Or do you actually want to take that higher as you get into the spring selling season?

好的。明白了。好的。如果我們有的話。好的。因此，您仍然 - 運行大約 11 個 - 每個社區略多於 11 個規範，但每個社區不超過一個完成的規範。那麼，這是您所處的水平嗎？您是否覺得您已經達到了某種最佳規格等級？或者您是否真的想在進入春季銷售季節時提高這一價格？

Yes, I think your math is right. It's about 11 per active community. Once you include those communities that are just starting up and not yet active, it's probably closer to, call it, 9.5%.

是的，我認為你的數學是正確的。每個活躍社區大約有 11 個。一旦算上那些剛起步、尚未活躍的社區，這個數字可能更接近 9.5%。

All that said, I do think it could rise a little bit more, between the end of the third quarter and the start of the year as we prepare for the spring selling season. We're also working on making sure that we have good sufficient inventory that is within, call it, 60 days to 90 days of close for the spring selling season as well. So that is ongoing.

儘管如此，我確實認為，在我們為春季銷售旺季做準備之際，第三季末和年初之間價格可能會略有上漲。我們也致力於確保在春季銷售季節有充足的庫存，也就是在 60 天到 90 天內完成銷售。這仍在進行中。

Yes, that's great. Remind us, where do you stand now in terms of the gross margins on your specs versus build-to-order?

是的，太棒了。提醒我們一下，就規格和按訂單生產的毛利率而言，您現在處於什麼位置？

I think, overall for this specs, built-to-order is about 200 basis points higher. That said, the curated specs are actually closer to dirt margins to the build-to-order margins. And what's influencing it in the quarter right now is that we still had quite a few unintentional specs, so specs that resulted from cancellations still going through the numbers.

我認為，總體而言，對於這個規格，按訂單生產大約高出 200 個基點。也就是說，精心策劃的規格實際上更接近於按訂單生產利潤的微小利潤。目前對本季產生影響的因素是，我們仍然有相當多的意外規格，因此因取消而導致的規格仍然會影響數字。

And I think you said your curated spec percentage has gone up to be quite a high, like 89%, or something.

我記得您說過，您的精選規格百分比已經上升到相當高，例如 89% 左右。

Correct. Of the -- that 2,681 total, 89% are curated.

正確的。在總數 2,681 件中，89% 是經過精選的。

Okay. And those margins are closer to build-to-order, that's encouraging. Okay, lastly, just incentives, you touched on incentives, as you -- talked about 3Q. But as we look into what's happening, sort of at the end of the quarter and into October, I was curious as to if you could give us a sense for, you know, what you're seeing, either in terms of a change in your posture towards incentives, or because customers interest in finance incentives, particularly buy downs, relative to what you maybe saw for the 3Q as a whole?

好的。這些利潤率更接近訂單生產，這是令人鼓舞的。好的，最後，只是激勵措施，正如您在第三季度談到的那樣，您提到了激勵措施。但是，當我們研究本季末和十月份發生的情況時，我很好奇，您是否可以告訴我們，您看到的情況是，您對激勵措施的態度發生了變化，還是因為客戶對財務激勵措施（尤其是買斷）的興趣，相對於整個第三季度的情況？

I think it definitely increased a bit the overall cost of offering those special financing incentives, those buy downs, towards the end of Q3, given that we've seen some movement in rates. The rates seem to settle down a little bit during Q2, only to come up again.

我認為，鑑於利率已經出現一些變動，在第三季末提供這些特殊融資激勵措施和買斷措施的總體成本肯定會增加。利率似乎在第二季度有所下降，但隨後又再次上升。

So anytime we see that, I think it's normal to see an increase in the incentives offered, especially in this case for the special financing incentives. So as David mentioned, we do expect a higher level of incentives to come through in Q4, because of that many of the units that are getting that special financing will close in the fourth quarter.

因此，每當我們看到這種情況時，我認為增加提供的激勵措施是正常的，尤其是在這種情況下的特殊融資激勵措施。正如大衛所提到的，我們確實預計第四季會有更高水準的激勵措施，因為許多獲得特殊融資的單位將在第四季度關閉。

Okay, that's helpful and right. Because they're basically standing units. Okay, quick movements. Great.

好的，這很有幫助而且正確。因為他們基本上是常備部隊。好的，動作快點。偉大的。

And our next question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

This is Andrew Azzi on for Mike. Congrats on the quarters -- on the quarter, guys. I just wanted to ask, maybe if you can break out the components that drove the gross margin be and maybe what was the biggest driver in the respective impact?

我是安德魯‧阿齊 (Andrew Azzi)，代替麥克 (Mike)。大家好，恭喜本季的成績－本季的成績。我只是想問一下，您是否可以列出影響毛利率的因素，以及各自影響中最大的驅動因素是什麼？

Well, I think overall, just the closings, that we're running through, they had a lesser level of incentive, in part that's due to interest rates being a bit more stable towards that the middle part of the year, so a lesser cost from financing incentives, although that turned a little bit as Steve Kim and I were, just discussing towards the end of the quarter. So that's one thing.

嗯，我認為總體而言，就我們正在進行的收盤而言，他們的激勵水平較低，部分原因是由於利率在年中稍微穩定一些，因此融資激勵的成本較低，儘管正如我和史蒂夫·金在本季度末討論的那樣，這種情況發生了一點轉變。這是一回事。

I think, we also had some hiccups with relation to things like, for example, lumber, due to our build-to-order strategy that we were executing on for much of the prior years, and we still had some of the older lumber costs going through our numbers. And that really started to come down in a more meaningful way during Q3.

我認為，我們在木材等方面也遇到了一些問題，因為我們在前幾年大部分時間都在執行按訂單生產策略，所以我們的數據中仍有一些較舊的木材成本。在第三季度，這種情況開始以更有意義的方式下降。

Got it. That's helpful. And then in terms of 4Q's gross 4Q's gross margin guidance, what kind of gets you to the bottom and top of the range that you guys provided?

知道了。這很有幫助。那麼就第四季的毛利率指引而言，是什麼讓你們達到了你們提供的範圍的底線和最高點？

Well, you know, I think it'll depend on what we see in market conditions during Q4, that relates not only to the overall psyche of the consumer, the health of the consumer, but also what interest rates do during the fourth quarter.

嗯，你知道，我認為這將取決於我們在第四季度看到的市場狀況，這不僅與消費者的整體心理、消費者的健康狀況有關，還與第四季度的利率走勢有關。

I imagine if for whatever reason, you saw continued increase in mortgage interest rates that, would result in more incentives in order to get that rate down to a level of affordability, for the consumer. If you saw stability or even a move down, maybe there is an opportunity to be towards the higher end of the range.

我想，如果出於某種原因，你看到抵押貸款利率持續上漲，那麼就會產生更多的激勵措施，以便將利率降至消費者可承受的水平。如果您看到穩定，甚至下降，也許就有機會接近範圍的高端。

And our next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

If I look back to a year ago, year and a half ago, when rates initially began to rise, you guys were, you know, one of the more aggressive builders in kind of slowing the pace of land buying down, you took actions to obviously make sure that you wouldn't, kind of get stuck with land being purchased at the peak prices and whatnot. And, while I hear a little bit of near term cautiousness in your guidance, at least as far as margin is concerned and the potential need for higher incentives, given this more recent move in rates.

如果我回顧一年前或一年半前，當利率開始上漲時，你們是放慢土地購買速度的更積極的建築商之一，你們採取行動顯然是為了確保你們不會陷入以最高價格購買土地的困境。雖然我聽到您的指導中有一些近期的謹慎態度，但至少就保證金和可能需要更高的激勵措施而言，考慮到最近利率的變動。

It seems like you're taking the opposite course in terms of actually accelerating land activity and keeping the start pace of specs quite high. So I was just, you know, wondering if you could talk through a little bit, why you feel more confident in the market's ability to kind of withstand the headwind now that seems to be unfolding, whereas, some other builders might be taking a bit more of a cautious tone compared to a year and a half ago, when you were seemingly very conservative in the face of initially rising rates?

就實際加速土地活動和維持較高規格的啟動速度而言，你們似乎採取了相反的做法。所以我只是想知道您是否可以稍微談談，為什麼您對市場抵禦目前似乎正在出現的逆風的能力更有信心，而其他一些建築商可能會比一年半前採取更加謹慎的態度，而當時您在最初面臨利率上升時似乎非常保守？

Perfect. It's a great question. And as we were operating a year ago, naturally, it was very daunting. We had a cancellation rate, I believe, close to 80%. And that was the result of a very sharp increase in interest rates, I think, some 300 basis points over the course of 6 months, whereas this year, even though rates continue to increase, it's a more modest increased 100 basis points, 150 basis points during the course of the year.

完美的。這是一個很好的問題。由於我們一年前就開始營運了，所以自然是非常艱鉅的。我認為我們的取消率接近 80%。這是由於利率急劇上升造成的，我認為，在六個月內上升了約 300 個基點，而今年，儘管利率繼續上升，但年內上升幅度較為溫和，為 100 個基點到 150 個基點。

So, I think the consumer is not being shocked as much this year, which is encouraging. We continue to see good activity each month, which is helpful. We see good traffic, good conversions, the traffic is quality traffic. And we really still across all of our markets don't see a ton of supply out there, in terms of inventory that is available for consumers to buy. So, we think that all adds-up to a pretty healthy spring selling season.

因此，我認為今年消費者不會受到太大的衝擊，這是令人鼓舞的。我們每個月都會看到良好的活動，這很有幫助。我們看到了良好的流量、良好的轉化，這些流量都是優質流量。但就可供消費者購買的庫存而言，我們在所有市場上仍然沒有看到大量的供應。所以，我們認為，這一切都預示著春季銷售旺季將十分紅火。

If we have another healthy spring selling season, then of course, we'll need to replace that land. So even though the level of land activity has moved up quite a bit from Q1 or Q2, Q1 and Q2 were really not really significant periods of land acquisition activity at all. So we're almost getting back to more of in Q3, just a normal run rate for land acquisition, and then future periods for land acquisition will really be based upon the continued good solid activity that we see in the market.

如果我們迎來另一個健康的春季銷售季節，那麼當然，我們需要更換那塊土地。因此，儘管土地活動水準較第一季或第二季大幅上升，但第一季和第二季實際上並不是土地收購活動的重要時期。因此，我們在第三季幾乎恢復到正常的土地收購運作率，而未來的土地收購將真正基於我們在市場上看到的持續良好而穩固的活動。

Great. I appreciate the thoughts there, Bob. Second question just thinking through, you know, the sensitivity I guess you guys have on a price versus volume side. You mentioned an expectation for a tick-up in incentives in the fourth quarter. I think a lot of your peers are saying the same thing. The big difference between you guys though and them is your margins are a bit thinner. So presumably a little bit less cushion to absorb and you know, a more meaningful increase in incentives here with margins kind of in the high teens. So how do you think about that trade-off? At what point from -- either from an absorption standpoint or sales standpoint, you know, would you get much more aggressive on incentives? And at what point would you sit back and say, we're not going to discount anymore, because our margins are at a point where we don't want to go below that?

偉大的。我很欣賞你的想法，鮑伯。第二個問題只是思考了一下，我猜你們對價格與數量方面的敏感度。您提到了對第四季度激勵措施將增加的預期。我想你的很多同齡人也這麼說。但你們和他們之間的最大差異在於你們的利潤率略低。因此，大概需要吸收的緩衝會少一點，而且激勵措施會更有意義地增加，利潤率會達到十幾歲左右。那麼您如何看待這種權衡？從吸收角度或銷售角度來看，什麼時候您會對激勵措施採取更積極的措施？那麼在什麼情況下你會坐下來說，我們不會再打折了，因為我們的利潤率已經到了我們不想低於這個水平了？

Well I think in Q4, you have the impact of seasonality, so we have to take that into account. There's only so many buyers out there buying as we approach the holiday season, but we want to be competitive. So we are looking at our competition, how many there are selling, and what price it takes to sell. There is another end to the equation. Certainly, the margin is one thing.

嗯，我認為在第四季度，你會受到季節性的影響，所以我們必須考慮到這一點。接近假期，購買的買家數量有限，但我們希望保持競爭力。因此，我們正在關注我們的競爭對手，有多少銷售，以及銷售價格是多少。這個等式還有另一端。當然，利潤是一回事。

But the velocity with the inventory turns certainly is important as well. So, we want to strike a balance. We don't want to go down to next to nothing kind of sales, because we know that is something that is demoralizing to our teams, to our sales teams, certainly. So that wouldn't be appropriate as well. So if we see that we're keeping up with really a good seasonal pace, I think that's a good guide for us.

但庫存週轉速度當然也很重要。因此，我們想要取得平衡。我們不想讓銷售額降至幾乎為零，因為我們知道，這肯定會使我們的團隊，尤其是我們的銷售團隊士氣低落。所以這也不合適。因此，如果我們發現我們確實跟上了良好的季節性節奏，我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的指導。

Although there's no absolutes, we got to look at it subdivision by subdivision, and making sure, we're remaining competitive. I guess, I would also add, just given our land supply, being amongst the lowest in the industry, that's really something that insulates us as well. Not having so much pressure on us to monetize land at any given point in time.

雖然沒有絕對的事情，但我們必須逐一細分地進行研究，並確保我們保持競爭力。我想，我還要補充一點，考慮到我們的土地供應量在產業中屬於最低的，這確實對我們有一定的保護作用。在任何時候，我們都不會面臨那麼大的壓力去將土地貨幣化。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

First one, just want to understand what you're seeing on the land front, specifically given some of the tightening and lending to the private builders and developers. Are you all actually finding any finish lots come to market? Just a general update on kind of land pricing, and really trying to understand when you're underwriting a deal today, what level are you able to underwrite, to from a gross margin perspective? Should we be thinking something in kind of the high teens?

首先，我想了解您在土地方面看到的情況，特別是考慮到對私人建築商和開發商的一些緊縮政策和貸款。你們實際上發現有任何成品地塊進入市場嗎？只是對土地定價進行一般性更新，並真正試圖了解當您今天承銷交易時，從毛利率的角度來看您能夠承銷到什麼水平？我們是否應該思考一些十幾歲的事情？

Yes, I guess, I'll start off by saying, we were -- fortunate that the majority of what we bought and what we approved were finished lot deals during the quarter. In fact, I think it was -- close to 80%. So, we have seen some finished lot deals. It is competitive out there for deals, generally speaking. So I imagine there won't be nearly as many in the future.

是的，我想，首先我要說的是，我們很幸運，因為本季度我們購買的和批准的大部分都是已完成的批次交易。事實上，我認為接近 80%。因此，我們已經看到一些已完成的交易。整體來說，交易競爭很激烈。因此我想未來這樣的情況不會再發生了。

From an underwriting standpoint, the 2020 rule still applies in terms of margin and IRR. Although I would say for something that truly is finished, where you're taking all that development risk off the table, and you can actually start building houses immediately, you would go into the high teams for that kind of deal potentially. So, all depends on the deal. But right now, most of the deals that we've done during the quarter are ones that can add closings in sales relatively quickly.

從核保的角度來看，2020 年的規則在保證金和 IRR 方面仍然適用。但我想說，對於真正完工的項目，當你消除了所有的開發風險，你可以立即開始建造房屋時，你可能會為了這種交易而進入高層團隊。因此，一切都取決於交易。但目前，我們在本季完成的大多數交易都能夠相對快速地增加銷售額。

Got you, got you. Understood. This is a little bit near term focus, but could you give an update on kind of October demand trends and then maybe perhaps go across, some of your metros or regions just, given the recent rate move, which areas have been relatively outperforming or underperforming would be helpful.

明白了，明白了。明白了。這是近期的焦點，但您能否更新十月份的需求趨勢，然後也許可以介紹一下一些大都市或地區，考慮到最近的利率變動，哪些地區表現相對優異或表現不佳，這會很有幫助。

So for October, I think October has been healthy. Considering seasonality, it's really in line with normal seasonal patterns. And we think it's moving along very well. So that's October. In terms of regional focus, it's interesting to see a 2.4 absorption rate for every one of our regions for the third quarter, and I think it speaks to the resilience of all the markets.

因此就十月而言，我認為十月是健康的。考慮到季節性，它確實符合正常的季節模式。我們認為一切進展順利。這就是十月。就區域重點而言，有趣的是，第三季我們每個地區的吸收率都達到了 2.4，我認為這說明了所有市場的彈性。

There are markets out there where we know the consumer base maybe is a bit more credit challenge. I think you see some of that in Phoenix, you see some of that in Orlando, for example, Las Vegas. So those are areas that typically have a sensitivity to affordability.

我們知道，在某些市場中，消費者群體可能面臨更多的信貸挑戰。我想您可以在鳳凰城看到一些這樣的情況，您也可以在奧蘭多、拉斯維加斯看到一些這樣的情況。因此這些地區通常對負擔能力較為敏感。

That said, I think we've been able to manage through it with our special financing programs, and offering closing costs and those kinds of programs. So, I don't know that there's any one location that strikes me as particularly impacted or disproportionately impacted.

話雖如此，我認為我們能夠透過特殊融資計劃、提供成交成本和諸如此類的計劃來解決這個問題。所以，我不知道是否有任何一個地方給我留下了特別大或不成比例的影響。

And we will proceed with a question from Ken Zener from Seaport.

我們將繼續討論 Seaport 的 Ken Zener 提出的問題。

So, you guys like in the interest income I take it, the $20 million this quarter. Is that a fair rate, just to think about going forward, all else being equal?

所以，你們喜歡我所認為的利息收入，本季是 2000 萬美元。在其他所有條件相同的情況下，這只是一個公平的利率嗎？

Bob?

鮑伯？

For now, certainly, it ties to where interest rates move more broadly speaking, and of course, we're hoping to invest some of our capital into additional homebuilding assets to bring those cash balances down maybe just a smidge. So those are the 2 factors. But right now, it seems like we're going to continue to earn a healthy rate.

就目前而言，這當然與更廣泛的利率變動有關，當然，我們希望將部分資金投資於額外的房屋建築資產，以降低這些現金餘額，也許只是一點點。這就是兩個因素。但現在看來，我們仍能繼續保持健康的獲利水準。

Yes, a good rate. Yes, finally. So, you have a more spec bias. Things are more seasonal, is what that you're seeing. Yet your starts exceeded your orders in 3Q. Could you talk about that decision as it relates to, the fourth quarter or and then perhaps more broadly, you're thinking about that strategy?

是的，價格不錯。是的，終於。因此，你的投機偏見更加嚴重。您所看到的是，事物變得更具季節性。但第三季你們的開工量超過了訂單量。您能否談談該決定與第四季度的關係，或者更廣泛地說，您正在考慮這一策略？

Yes, the starts during Q3 were just shy of 2,400. So that did easily exceed our net orders. And I think we're thinking about spring selling season and making sure that we have the right amount of inventory for spring selling season. And with rates being where they are still at recent highs, decades highs, at this point.

是的，第三季的開工數略低於 2,400。因此這確實輕鬆超出了我們的淨訂單量。我認為我們正在考慮春季銷售季節，並確保我們在春季銷售季節擁有足夠數量的庫存。目前利率仍處於近期高位，甚至是數十年來的高點。

We know it's still going to be pretty important for our consumers to be able to know what their interest rate is, at the time they buy their houses, at least for the majority of consumers. And I think that means specs. So, we want to have that inventory in place to end the year. So that's why you see the differential.

我們知道，對於我們的消費者來說，在他們買房子時了解他們的利率仍然非常重要，至少對大多數消費者來說是如此。我認為這意味著規格。因此，我們希望在年底前擁有這些庫存。這就是你看到差異的原因。

Do you -- and I have a couple of follow-up questions here? Because that does make sense. Do you think -- and others can chime in, given the perspective about the interest rate, your shift to back, which makes sense? Was that something that was experienced, let's say, in the late 70s, David. And yes, that's my first question. I have a couple here for you. So I apologize.

您和我這裡有幾個後續問題嗎？因為這確實有道理。您是否認為－其他人也可以同意，從利率的角度來看，您轉向支持的做法是否合理？那是 70 年代末經歷過的事情嗎，大衛？是的，這是我的第一個問題。我這裡有一些給你。所以我很抱歉。

Well, actually, if you've got to the Jimmy Carter years, Larry, and I experienced mortgage rates that were 17 to 18. And, you know, at that time, we did forward commitments that were 13.5. So, so this is -- this seems like a pretty good market compared to -- when Carter was President.

嗯，實際上，如果你回顧吉米卡特執政時期，拉里和我經歷過的抵押貸款利率是 17 到 18。而且，你知道，當時我們的遠期承諾是 13.5。所以，與卡特擔任總統時期相比，這似乎是一個相當不錯的市場。

Well, related to that, one of the things, you know, the dollar bottomed in -- I believe, October '78. But, home prices were exceeding inflation then and, you know, there's obviously a variety of housing price metrics out there, as you consider them in the low single digits. One of the differences now is that prices are appreciating on a real basis. Do you have any eye, contacts for how that influenced -- influences buyers, because I know it was one of the big carriers in the past to explain. Sure, you had to pay a lot of mortgage, but prices were appreciating faster than that. So it's kind of a moot point I -- in my opinion?

嗯，與此相關，你知道的一件事是，美元觸底——我相信是在 1978 年 10 月。但是，當時的房價超過了通貨膨脹率，而且，你知道，顯然存在各種各樣的房價指標，因為你認為它們都處於個位數的低點。現在的一個不同是價格正在實際上漲。您是否有任何眼光、聯絡人了解這對買家有何影響，因為我知道這是過去大型承運商之一需要解釋的。當然，你必須支付大量的抵押貸款，但價格上漲的速度卻比這更快。所以在我看來這是一個沒有實際意義的問題？

What happened in the late 70s was a lot of lot. What's happening today, there was actually a shortage of houses and -- so not only….

70 年代末發生了很多事。今天發生的情況是，實際上存在住房短缺，而且——所以不僅…

On the news side, it's tied to capital or on the…

從新聞方面來看，它與資本或…有關。

On new side yes and new side and we're in a different time today. Because if you think about, we're competing -- we're competing for home sales with other builders. But what's interesting is we have so many people that are on the sidelines, because they have a mortgage rate under 4.

是的，在新的一面，在新的一面，我們今天處於不同的時代。因為如果你想想，我們正在與其他建築商競爭房屋銷售。但有趣的是，我們有這麼多人處於觀望狀態，因為他們的抵押貸款利率低於 4。

And so, you got a lot of -- lot of people have existing houses, they're living in home. So -- and as you well know, the new home builders are now picking up a bigger percentage of home sales that, that was kind of filled by the resales.

所以，很多人──很多人都有現成的房子，他們住在家裡。所以 — — 正如你們所知道的，新房建築商現在佔據了房屋銷售的更大比例，而這一比例是由轉售填補的。

Yes, it's -- I think there's a lot of parallels, some of them are good. And unfortunately, some of them are bad. I'm going to circle back now to the start question. This will be my last one. Because even if you're holding, well, your inventory units -- let's get this right. We're down 15% year-over-year, so about 5,300 if you back out bottles and such. And if you start what you have orders for? Do you think your orders are going to be up sequentially? That would be very odd, I guess.

是的，我認為有很多相似之處，其中一些是很好的。不幸的是，其中一些是壞的。我現在要回到開始的問題。這將是我的最後一次。因為即使您持有庫存單位，我們也要把這件事做好。與去年同期相比，我們的產量下降了 15%，所以，如果算上瓶子等的話，產量大約是 5,300。如果您開始執行您所接到的命令呢？您認為您的訂單量會持續增加嗎？我想那會很奇怪。

But given -- yes. So anyways, your inventory units are poised to be up nicely year-over-year, call it, you know, 4,500, maybe even 5,000 units. And if inventory using your 20, 10, 10 example. If you close out at about 5,000 units based upon your start decision that would imply up to 10,000 units next year. Could you talk to why that logic plan your 20, 10, 10 would not be appropriate? Or what would be wrong with that simplistic approach to your inventory as a forward indicator next year?

但鑑於--是的。所以無論如何，您的庫存單位將比去年同期大幅增加，大概是 4,500 個，甚至 5,000 個單位。如果庫存使用您的 20、10、10 範例。如果根據您的開始決定，您最終的產量約為 5,000 個單位，那麼這意味著明年的產量將達到 10,000 個單位。可以談談為什麼你的 20、10、10 邏輯計畫不合適嗎？或者說，以庫存作為明年的前瞻性指標這種簡單的方法有什麼問題嗎？

It's a loaded question for sure. With a lot of facts, but I think I know where you're going with it. And that we -- really, if you look at inventory -- right, yes, when you roll it over to our starting inventory, I think we calculate over time, it's been a 2:1 ratio closings versus that starting inventory excluding models. So, if we do end up in that north of 5,000 number to end the year, then it gives us the opportunity for a higher unit volume year in 2024. Of course, that depends on making sure that the cycle times are continuing to improve. They don't revert back. We have all the land necessary. And I think we've done a lot of good activity to get there. So your line of thinking certainly makes sense, when backed up by cycle times that are improving and inventory that's turning faster, more generally speaking.

這確實是一個引導性問題。雖然有很多事實，但我想我知道你要說什麼。而且我們 - 真的，如果你看一下庫存 - 是的，當你將其結轉到我們的起始庫存時，我認為我們會隨著時間的推移進行計算，它的收盤價與起始庫存（不包括模型）的比例是 2：1。因此，如果我們到年底的產量確實達到 5,000 以上，那麼我們就有機會在 2024 年實現更高的產量。當然，這取決於確保週期時間持續改善。他們不會再復原。我們擁有所有必要的土地。我認為我們為實現這一目標已經做了很多有益的活動。因此，從更普遍的角度來說，當週期時間不斷改善且庫存週轉速度不斷加快時，您的想法肯定是有道理的。

Yes, I just think it's the -- I mean, builders don't know about the back half of '23. But you certainly know about -- I mean, '24. But you certainly know the front half of '24. And that inventory unit is pretty impressive what the implications are.

是的，我只是認為——我的意思是，建築商不知​​道 23 年下半年的情況。但你肯定知道——我的意思是，'24。但你肯定知道 24 年的前半部。這個庫存單位的含義是相當令人印象深刻的。

And I will proceed with a question from Alex Barrón from Housing Research Center.

我將繼續回答住房研究中心的 Alex Barrón 提出的問題。

Yes. I was curious if you guys happen to have the statistics for what your average buyer, it looks like in terms of average income, average [cycle], average down payment and what the average interest rate is either in your recent closings during your backlog?

是的。我很好奇，你們是否有關於普通買家的統計數據，例如平均收入、平均[週期]、平均首付以及最近積壓交易中的平均利率是多少？

I think the average cycle was 744, the average down payment. I guess that backwards, the average LTV was 82% and the most recent interest rate. So for those closings that occurred in Q3, we were at about 6% for our mortgage company. I'm not sure if income number handy.

我認為平均週期是744，平均首付。我猜反過來說，平均 LTV 是 82%，最新的利率也是這樣。因此，對於第三季度發生的成交，我們的抵押貸款公司的比率約為 6%。我不確定收入數字是否有用。

Okay. Maybe we can touch base offline yes, because the income would be interesting to know just to see relatively speaking because it's one thing to think the average household is buying a home, it's another if it's the upper quintile buying a home these days. So, I'd just be curious to know what you're averaging household income that's buying actually, as okay?

好的。是的，也許我們可以進行線下聯繫，因為了解收入情況相對來說很有趣，因為認為普通家庭購買房屋是一回事，但如果是上層五分之一的人現在購買房屋則是另一回事。所以，我只是好奇想知道你們的平均家庭收入實際上可以購買多少東西，好嗎？

Yes that average debt income -- just for one, one point of reference was about 42%. So that is in line with what it's been in prior periods.

是的，平均債務收入——僅舉一個參考點，約為 42%。這與前期的情況一致。

Got it. And in terms of rate by down or forward commitment roughly, what are you guys advertising and how many of the people buying are actually going for a rate by down rather than some other type of incentives?

知道了。就利率下降或遠期承諾而言，你們宣傳的是什麼？購買者中有多少人實際上是選擇按利率下降而不是其他類型的激勵措施？

Right now we're at 5.75% on government and 5.99% on conventional and I would say the vast majority of the buyers are using rate to some degree or closing costs incentives, to either get their payment down, or to get their initial cost to close down as you can tell from the 6% average in Q3. Not everybody is getting all the way down to 5.75% or 5.99%.

目前，政府貸款利率為 5.75%，傳統貸款利率為 5.99%，我想說，絕大多數買家都在一定程度上利用了利率或成交成本激勵措施，以降低付款或降低初始成交成本，正如你從第三季度 6% 的平均值中看到的那樣。並不是每個人的利率都會降到 5.75% 或 5.99%。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bob Martin for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給鮑勃馬丁 (Bob Martin) 來做結束語。

Thank you to everyone for being on the call, and we look forward to speaking with you again after the release of our Q4 earnings.

感謝大家參加電話會議，我們期待在發布第四季度收益後再次與您交談。

And the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

目前會議已經結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。