麥當勞 (MCD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to McDonald's Fourth Quarter 2022 Investor Conference Call. At the request of McDonald's Corporation, this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎來到麥當勞 2022 年第四季度投資者電話會議。應麥當勞公司的要求，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mike Cieplak, Investor Relations Officer for McDonald's Corporation. Mr. Cieplak, you may begin.

我現在想將會議轉交給麥當勞公司投資者關係官 Mike Cieplak 先生。 Cieplak 先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Kempczinski; and Chief Financial Officer, Ian Borden.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我通話的有總裁兼首席執行官 Chris Kempczinski；和首席財務官 Ian Borden。

As a reminder, the forward-looking statements in our earnings release and 8-K filing also apply to our comments on the call today. Both of those documents are available on our website as are reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures mentioned on today's call, along with their corresponding GAAP measures.

提醒一下，我們的收益發布和 8-K 文件中的前瞻性陳述也適用於我們對今天電話會議的評論。這兩份文件以及今天電話會議中提到的任何非 GAAP 財務措施及其相應的 GAAP 措施的對賬都可以在我們的網站上找到。

Following prepared remarks this morning, we will take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being webcast and is also being recorded for replay via our website.

在今天早上準備好的發言之後，我們將回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）今天的電話會議正在網絡直播，同時也正在錄製以通過我們的網站進行重播。

And now I'll turn it over to Chris.

現在我將把它交給克里斯。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. When we gathered at this time last year, we expected 2022 to be a year of recovery from the pandemic, particularly in Europe. Little did we know that it would be another challenging year, and nobody could have predicted the extent to which the war in Europe would disrupt businesses around the world and the macroeconomic impact that would follow.

謝謝大家，早上好。去年這個時候我們聚在一起時，我們預計 2022 年將是從大流行中復甦的一年，尤其是在歐洲。我們幾乎不知道這將是又一個充滿挑戰的一年，沒有人能夠預測歐洲戰爭將在多大程度上擾亂世界各地的企業以及隨之而來的宏觀經濟影響。

Despite continued volatility in nearly every corner of the globe, McDonald's delivered exceptional growth throughout 2022. We achieved full year comp sales growth of 10.9%, delivered strong comp -- guest count performance with 5% growth globally and saw our momentum strengthen as the year progressed with double-digit comp sales growth across all segments in Q4. These results are a testament to the resilience of the McDonald's system and demonstrate that our Accelerating the Arches strategy, which we unveiled in the early days of the pandemic, is working. This strategy is anchored by 3 growth pillars also known as our M, C and Ds: maximize our marketing, commit to the core menu and double down on the 3Ds. Our 2022 performance demonstrated the continued potential of each growth pillar.

儘管全球幾乎每個角落都在持續波動，但麥當勞在整個 2022 年實現了非凡的增長。我們實現了全年 10.9% 的複合銷售額增長，實現了強勁的複合——全球客戶數量增長了 5%，並且我們的勢頭隨著這一年的增長而增強第 4 季度所有細分市場的 comp 銷售額都取得了兩位數的增長。這些結果證明了麥當勞系統的彈性，並表明我們在大流行初期公佈的加速拱門戰略正在發揮作用。該戰略以 3 個增長支柱為基礎，也稱為我們的 M、C 和 D：最大化我們的營銷、致力於核心菜單和雙倍下注 3D。我們 2022 年的業績證明了每個增長支柱的持續潛力。

You've heard me say, McDonald's is one of the world's greatest brands. In the last year, we've unlocked even more ways to elevate our marketing through creative excellence. Our scalable insights are helping us tap into our fans' love for McDonald's and create culturally relevant campaigns that resonate across markets and drive growth. That momentum continued into Q4. In October, our collaboration with Cactus Plant Flea Market in the U.S. brought together our adult fans' love and nostalgia for the Happy Meal with one of the most on-trend brand and culture. Customer excitement was palpable, and it's fair to say the program exceeded expectations. This program drove the highest weekly digital transactions ever seen in the U.S.

你聽我說過，麥當勞是世界上最偉大的品牌之一。在過去的一年裡，我們已經解鎖了更多的方式來通過卓越的創意來提升我們的營銷。我們可擴展的洞察力正在幫助我們挖掘粉絲對麥當勞的熱愛，並開展與文化相關的活動，以引起市場共鳴並推動增長。這種勢頭一直持續到第四季度。 10 月，我們與美國 Cactus Plant Flea Market 合作，將我們成年粉絲對開心樂園餐的熱愛和懷念與最流行的品牌和文化之一結合在一起。客戶的興奮之情顯而易見，可以說該計劃超出了預期。該計劃推動了美國有史以來最高的每週數字交易

To celebrate the FIFA World Cup, we launched our largest global marketing campaign ever with more than 75 markets participating worldwide. Want to go to McDonald's brought to life yet another fan truth. Whatever the culture or language and whatever the outcome of the game, we can all unite under the Golden Arches. Our aim was to support fans that were watching the FIFA World Cup at home through relevant and meaningful McDelivery promotions regardless of the time zone that their team was playing in. During this campaign, we saw double-digit increases in delivery sales across our top 10 markets.

為慶祝 FIFA 世界杯，我們發起了有史以來規模最大的全球營銷活動，全球有超過 75 個市場參與其中。想去麥當勞帶來了另一個粉絲真相。無論文化或語言如何，無論比賽結果如何，我們都可以在金色拱門下團結起來。我們的目標是通過相關且有意義的 McDelivery 促銷活動為在家觀看 FIFA 世界杯的球迷提供支持，無論他們的球隊所在的時區如何。在這次活動中，我們看到前 10 名球隊的外賣銷售額實現了兩位數的增長市場。

And just a couple of weeks ago, the U.K. launched their Raise Your Arches campaign, which has generated significant excitement with our customers. Even though the campaign never shows our food, never shows our restaurant and never mentions our brand name, it's nonetheless instantly recognizable as only McDonald's. Imagine that, a brand so powerful it requires no introduction. The campaign has been quickly picked up by over 30 other markets, demonstrating our system's ability to quickly scale compelling ideas across the globe.

就在幾週前，英國發起了他們的 Raise Your Arches 活動，這讓我們的客戶非常興奮。儘管該活動從不展示我們的食物，從不展示我們的餐廳，也從不提及我們的品牌名稱，但人們一眼就能認出它只是麥當勞。想像一下，一個如此強大的品牌不需要介紹。該活動已被 30 多個其他市場迅速採用，證明了我們的系統能夠在全球範圍內快速推廣引人注目的創意。

Throughout 2022, some of our most successful campaign platforms brought our customers closer to the core menu items they love. The strength of our brand goes beyond the Golden Arches themselves and includes our iconic products such as our world-famous french fries, the Big Mac or Chicken McNuggets and the McFlurry. Each of these products are billion-dollar brands. And in total, McDonald's possesses 10 of these billion-brand equities.

在整個 2022 年，我們一些最成功的活動平台讓我們的客戶更接近他們喜愛的核心菜單項。我們品牌的實力超越了金拱門本身，還包括我們的標誌性產品，例如舉世聞名的炸薯條、巨無霸或麥樂雞塊以及麥旋風。這些產品中的每一個都是價值數十億美元的品牌。麥當勞總共擁有這些十億品牌資產中的 10 個。

In an environment where our customers are looking for the simple and familiar, our core menu items have never been more relevant or beloved. Throughout the year, we continue to step up our game on the favorites that build our heritage. We're delivering hotter, juicier, more delicious burgers and building on the success of emerging equities like the McCrispy Chicken Sandwich. As a result, we are gaining market share in both chicken and beef.

在我們的客戶尋求簡單和熟悉的環境中，我們的核心菜單項從未如此相關或受到喜愛。全年，我們繼續加強我們對建立我們傳統的最愛的遊戲。我們正在提供更熱、更多汁、更美味的漢堡，並在 McCrispy 雞肉三明治等新興股票的成功基礎上再接再厲。因此，我們正在獲得雞肉和牛肉的市場份額。

When customers want to enjoy our classic favorites, they are increasingly looking for even more personalized and convenient ways to get their meals. Through our focus on digital, we are transforming from a brand that serve billions and billions all the same way to one that serves each of our billions of customers uniquely as individuals with customized products, offers and experiences. By doing this, we strengthen our customers' love and loyalty for McDonald's.

當顧客想要享用我們的經典美食時，他們越來越多地尋求更加個性化和便捷的用餐方式。通過我們對數字化的關注，我們正在從一個以相同方式為數十億人提供服務的品牌轉變為一個為數十億客戶提供定制產品、優惠和體驗的獨特個人服務的品牌。通過這樣做，我們加強了顧客對麥當勞的喜愛和忠誠度。

These investments are paying off. In the fourth quarter, digital represented over 35% of system-wide sales in our top 6 markets. In 2022, the McDonald's app was downloaded over 40 million times in the U.S., greater than the total downloads of the second, third and fourth brands combined.

這些投資正在取得回報。第四季度，數字業務占我們前 6 大市場全系統銷售額的 35% 以上。 2022年，麥當勞應用程序在美國的下載量超過4000萬次，超過了第二、第三和第四品牌的總下載量。

Through our loyalty program, which we've expanded to over 50 markets and counting, customers are feeling more connected to McDonald's, which in turn increases visits and frequency. As we closed the year, we had almost 50 million active loyalty users in our top 6 markets.

通過我們已經擴展到 50 多個市場並且還在不斷增加的忠誠度計劃，客戶感覺與麥當勞的聯繫更加緊密，這反過來又增加了訪問量和頻率。在我們結束這一年時，我們在前 6 大市場中擁有近 5000 萬活躍的忠誠度用戶。

The success of Accelerating the Arches has put McDonald's in an advantaged position. Since the start of the pandemic, we've grown system-wide sales nearly $20 billion despite closing over 800 restaurants in Russia. Our brand is clearly in the strongest position it's been in years, attributable in part to our best-in-class marketing engine. And service times and customer satisfaction are both improving, a testament to the dedication of our restaurant teams.

Accelerating the Arches 的成功讓麥當勞處於有利地位。自大流行開始以來，儘管我們關閉了俄羅斯的 800 多家餐廳，但我們的全系統銷售額增長了近 200 億美元。我們的品牌顯然處於多年來最強大的地位，部分歸因於我們一流的營銷引擎。服務時間和客戶滿意度都在提高，這證明了我們餐廳團隊的奉獻精神。

Our success is fueling even greater ambitions. While we feel good about our strategy and the growth potential in each of our MCD pillars, we've been asking ourselves 2 questions: is there anything we should add to Accelerating the Arches? And is there anything that could get in the way of the success of Accelerating the Arches?

我們的成功激發了更大的抱負。雖然我們對我們的戰略和每個 MCD 支柱的增長潛力感到滿意，但我們一直在問自己兩個問題：我們應該為加速拱門添加什麼？有什麼東西可以阻礙加速拱門的成功嗎？

The answers to these 2 questions led us to evolve our Accelerating the Arches strategy, which we announced a few weeks ago. We'll continue to double down on our MCDs while adding a fourth D, restaurant development, to our 3Ds growth pillar. Our strong comp and brand performance has given us the right to build new units at a faster rate than we have historically. We also announced accelerating the organization, an effort to modernize the way we work so that we're faster, more innovative and more efficient. Work is now underway to further build out these initiatives and quantify their contribution to our long-term financial algorithm. We'll share more details with all of you at an investor update in Chicago sometime in late 2023.

這兩個問題的答案促使我們改進了幾週前宣布的加速拱門戰略。我們將繼續加大 MCD 的投入，同時在我們的 3D 增長支柱中增加第四個 D，即餐廳開發。我們強大的競爭和品牌表現使我們有權以比以往更快的速度建造新單位。我們還宣布加速組織建設，努力使我們的工作方式現代化，以便我們更快、更創新、更高效。目前正在開展工作以進一步構建這些計劃並量化它們對我們長期財務算法的貢獻。我們將在 2023 年底的某個時候在芝加哥舉行的投資者更新中與大家分享更多細節。

To expand further on how Accelerating the Arches drove success in 2022, I'll now turn it over to Ian.

為了進一步說明加速拱門如何在 2022 年取得成功，我現在將其交給 Ian。

Thanks, Chris. By putting our customers at the center of Accelerating the Arches, we're driving top line momentum and broad-based global strength for our brand. Global comparable sales were up double digits for the fourth quarter, and we continue to gain share across most of our major markets. Our performance is a direct result of executing against our strategy, making it clear that we're operating from a position of strength and proving once again that our business remains resilient despite the dynamic macro environment.

謝謝，克里斯。通過將我們的客戶置於 Accelerating Arches 的中心，我們正在推動我們品牌的頂線勢頭和廣泛的全球實力。第四季度全球可比銷售額增長了兩位數，我們繼續在大多數主要市場中獲得份額。我們的業績是根據我們的戰略執行的直接結果，清楚地表明我們的經營處於強勢地位，並再次證明儘管宏觀環境充滿活力，我們的業務仍保持彈性。

In our International Operated Markets, we leveraged our digital channels and highlighted our core menu, delivering comp sales growth of nearly 13% for the quarter. As our big 5 International Operated Markets continued to recover from COVID throughout the year, we consistently created delicious feel-good moments for our customers, achieving strong performance across each of these markets.

在我們的國際運營市場中，我們利用我們的數字渠道並突出我們的核心菜單，實現了本季度近 13% 的銷售額增長。隨著我們的 5 大國際運營市場全年繼續從 COVID 中恢復過來，我們始終如一地為我們的客戶創造美妙的感覺良好的時刻，在每個市場上都取得了強勁的業績。

The U.K. continued their focus on chicken with an early fourth quarter launch of the McCrispy Chicken Sandwich. This emerging global equity builds on iconic core favorites like Chicken McNuggets and drove a meaningful lift to the chicken category. The U.K. market also leaned into the power of our brand with the popular Reindeer Ready holiday campaign returning for the sixth consecutive year. The fourth quarter also brought the return of McDonald's Monopoly to the Canadian market, but this time utilizing our app to elevate the experience. We leveraged learnings from recent U.K. and Australia activations where we combined the nostalgic peel-off game pieces with the option to digitally scan and track progress on our app, which helped accelerate top line momentum and sales through our digital channels.

英國繼續關注雞肉，第四季度初推出了 McCrispy 雞肉三明治。這種新興的全球股票建立在麥樂雞等標誌性核心熱門產品的基礎上，並推動了雞肉類別的顯著提升。英國市場也依靠我們品牌的力量，連續第六年回歸廣受歡迎的 Reindeer Ready 假期活動。第四季度麥當勞大富翁也重返加拿大市場，但這次利用我們的應用程序提升了體驗。我們利用最近英國和澳大利亞活動的經驗教訓，在這些活動中我們將懷舊的剝離式遊戲作品與數字掃描和跟踪應用程序進度的選項相結合，這有助於通過我們的數字渠道加速營收勢頭和銷售。

Fueling digital growth was also central to Germany's strong performance with the market's first MyMcDonald's-branded affordability campaign. This promotion featured daily offers alongside mobile order messaging to drive full digital platform engagement. It was followed by the launch of digital Monopoly in the market, which helped grow digital to over 60% of total sales. It's examples like this that once again highlight the power of the McDonald's system, allowing us to tap into proven successes in one market and then scale those ideas.

推動數字增長也是德國憑藉市場首個 MyMcDonald 品牌的可負擔性活動取得強勁表現的核心。此促銷活動包括每日優惠以及移動訂單消息，以推動全面的數字平台參與。隨後在市場上推出了數字大富翁，這有助於將數字銷售增長到總銷售額的 60% 以上。正是這樣的例子再次凸顯了麥當勞系統的力量，它讓我們能夠在一個市場中挖掘已經證明的成功，然後擴展這些想法。

In Australia, we continued to leverage the strength of our McCafé brand with an iced coffee promotion in the summer months. This campaign built upon our coffee leadership in the market as we continued to drive share gains. And we maintained our market leadership in France with always-on family messaging and a fully integrated chicken campaign, highlighting our iconic Chicken McNuggets paired with unique and trendy sauces.

在澳大利亞，我們繼續利用 McCafé 品牌的優勢，在夏季推出冰咖啡促銷活動。隨著我們繼續推動市場份額的增長，該活動建立在我們在市場上的咖啡領導地位之上。我們通過始終在線的家庭信息和完全整合的炸雞活動保持了我們在法國的市場領導地位，突出了我們標誌性的麥樂雞塊搭配獨特而時尚的醬汁。

Moving to the U.S. Comp sales were up over 10% for the quarter, a testament to our work together with franchisees over the last several years, which has created a strong foundation. The collective decisions to put brand at the center of our marketing, along with simplifying our menus, strengthening our digital business and recommitting to our core, have resonated with consumers and are continuing to drive growth. Strategic calendar planning from marketing to restaurant execution has enabled our teams to stay laser-focused on what truly matters most for our customers.

轉向美國本季度的 Comp 銷售額增長了 10% 以上，這證明了我們在過去幾年中與特許經營商的合作奠定了堅實的基礎。將品牌置於我們營銷中心的集體決定，以及簡化我們的菜單、加強我們的數字業務和重新致力於我們的核心，已經引起了消費者的共鳴，並將繼續推動增長。從市場營銷到餐廳執行的戰略日曆規劃使我們的團隊能夠專注於對客戶真正重要的事情。

Higher average check supported by strategic price increases as well as positive guest counts contributed to our performance this quarter. Memorable marketing campaigns, including our collaboration with Cactus Plant Flea Market, Boo Buckets and McRib brought nostalgia to our customers, fueling top line momentum with limited added complexity in our restaurants.

戰略性價格上漲以及積極的客人數量支持了更高的平均支票，這為我們本季度的業績做出了貢獻。令人難忘的營銷活動，包括我們與 Cactus Plant Flea Market、Boo Buckets 和 McRib 的合作，為我們的客戶帶來了懷舊之情，在我們餐廳的複雜性有限的情況下推動了收入增長勢頭。

Turning to our International Developmental Licensed Markets. Comp sales were up over 16% for the quarter with strong sales growth across all geographies in the segment. Japan achieved an impressive 29th consecutive quarter of positive comp sales with continued strength at the dinner daypart. A focus on driving digital affordability helped increase the frequency of our most loyal digital customers.

轉向我們的國際開發許可市場。本季度 Comp 銷售額增長超過 16%，該細分市場所有地區的銷售額增長強勁。日本連續第 29 個季度實現了令人印象深刻的積極銷售，並在晚餐時段持續走強。專注於提高數字支付能力有助於增加我們最忠誠的數字客戶的頻率。

Recovery in China, however, remained challenging as COVID-related government restrictions were still in place for a majority of the fourth quarter, resulting in some temporary closures and limited operations. While comp sales in China were negative, we focused on showcasing our strength in beef with the Big Mac best burger launch and continued to gain traffic share in a shrinking QSR market. And despite the ongoing operating challenges, we opened over 700 new restaurants last year, which is an all-time high.

然而，中國的複蘇仍然充滿挑戰，因為與 COVID 相關的政府限制在第四季度的大部分時間裡仍然存在，導致一些臨時關閉和有限的運營。儘管中國的同店銷售額為負，但我們專注於通過推出巨無霸最佳漢堡來展示我們在牛肉方面的實力，並繼續在萎縮的快餐市場中獲得流量份額。儘管面臨持續的運營挑戰，我們去年還是開設了 700 多家新餐廳，創歷史新高。

Turning to our P&L. Company-operated margins were just over 15% for the quarter, reflecting the continued pressure from elevated commodities, wages as well as higher energy costs. Foreign currency translation negatively impacted fourth quarter results by $0.16 per share with earnings per share of $2.59 for the quarter.

轉向我們的損益表。本季度公司運營利潤率略高於 15%，反映出商品價格上漲、工資上漲以及能源成本上漲帶來的持續壓力。外幣換算對第四季度業績產生了每股 0.16 美元的負面影響，本季度每股收益為 2.59 美元。

For the full year, adjusted operating margin was nearly 45%, reflecting higher restaurant margin dollars across all segments. Despite the significant P&L pressures that we've discussed, top line results generated restaurant margin dollars of over $13 billion for the year, an increase of nearly $1.5 billion in constant currency. Franchise restaurants, which now represent 95% of our global portfolio, contributed nearly 90% of our total restaurant margins, reflecting the stability of our business model.

全年，調整後的營業利潤率接近 45%，反映出所有部門的餐廳利潤率均有所提高。儘管我們已經討論過巨大的 P&L 壓力，但今年的最高業績為餐廳帶來了超過 130 億美元的利潤，按固定匯率計算增加了近 15 億美元。特許經營餐廳目前占我們全球投資組合的 95%，貢獻了我們餐廳總利潤的近 90%，反映了我們商業模式的穩定性。

Lastly, before I hand it back over to Chris, I want to touch briefly on our capital expenditures and free cash flow profile. Our CapEx spend for the year was approximately $1.9 billion, which included remaining reinvestment to substantially complete our Experience of the Future efforts in the U.S. market. Over the last few years, we've invested billions of dollars in modernizing our estate, and it's clear in our results that these investments are paying off. After reinvesting in the business, our free cash flow conversion was nearly 90% for the year.

最後，在我將其交還給克里斯之前，我想簡要談談我們的資本支出和自由現金流狀況。我們今年的資本支出約為 19 億美元，其中包括剩餘的再投資，以大幅完成我們在美國市場的未來體驗工作。在過去的幾年裡，我們投資了數十億美元來使我們的莊園現代化，從我們的結果中可以清楚地看出，這些投資正在取得回報。在對業務進行再投資後，我們當年的自由現金流轉換率接近 90%。

And with that, let me pass it back over to Chris.

然後，讓我把它傳回給克里斯。

Thanks, Ian. As we look ahead to 2023, macroeconomic uncertainties will persist, and we expect to continue to face headwinds. Our base case for a mild to moderate recession in the U.S., and one that will be a little deeper and longer in Europe, is unchanged from what we shared on our Q3 earnings call. We also expect inflationary costs to continue to pressure our margins, which Ian will discuss in greater detail.

謝謝，伊恩。展望 2023 年，宏觀經濟的不確定性將持續存在，我們預計將繼續面臨逆風。我們對美國溫和至中度衰退以及歐洲經濟衰退程度更深、持續時間更長的基本情況與我們在第三季度財報電話會議上分享的情況沒有變化。我們還預計通貨膨脹成本將繼續對我們的利潤率構成壓力，伊恩將對此進行更詳細的討論。

In this environment, we must maintain our disciplined approach to pricing. We need to balance passing through our pricing on our menus while maintaining our strong position on value with our customers. Our positive guest count performance in 2022 demonstrates our success so far in balancing these competing demands, and we need to remain judicious with pricing actions.

在這種環境下，我們必須保持嚴格的定價方式。我們需要平衡通過我們的菜單定價，同時保持我們在客戶價值方面的強勢地位。我們在 2022 年積極的客人數量表現表明我們迄今為止在平衡這些競爭需求方面取得了成功，我們需要在定價行動上保持審慎。

Ongoing communication with our franchisees regarding the magnitude and pace of pricing will remain essential. Our franchisees are focused on the long term. And time and again, that approach has been rewarded. As long as we continue to do the right things for the customer, we can always work through short-term challenges.

與我們的特許經營商就定價的幅度和速度進行持續溝通仍然至關重要。我們的加盟商著眼於長遠。一次又一次，這種方法得到了回報。只要我們繼續為客戶做正確的事，我們總能克服短期挑戰。

McDonald's understands that customers' perception on value is made up of more than just the price of our food. It's also about the experience we provide. Our modernization efforts have had a significant impact on improving our customers' experience, and this is also improving how our customers think of our brand. Now that we are nearly fully modernized, our attention has turned to being laser-focused on our operations and running great restaurants.

麥當勞明白顧客對價值的看法不僅僅取決於我們食品的價格。這也與我們提供的體驗有關。我們的現代化努力對改善客戶體驗產生了重大影響，這也改善了客戶對我們品牌的看法。現在我們幾乎完全現代化了，我們的注意力已經轉向專注於我們的運營和經營一流的餐廳。

In 2022, we have reengaged most of our system on maintaining operational excellence in our restaurants through our Performance and Customer Excellence program, also known as PACE. This restaurant assessment and consulting tool, which is currently deployed in 30 markets, was suspended during COVID. Along with providing new tools, this represents a new way of working for our field teams that helps markets target organizational and restaurant support for key growth drivers. This renewed focus will help protect McDonald's brand standards for an outstanding customer experience every single day.

2022 年，我們通過我們的績效和客戶卓越計劃（也稱為 PACE）重新啟用了大部分系統，以保持我們餐廳的卓越運營。目前部署在 30 個市場的這一餐廳評估和諮詢工具在 COVID 期間被暫停。除了提供新工具外，這還代表了我們現場團隊的一種新工作方式，可幫助市場針對組織和餐廳支持關鍵增長動力。這種重新關注將有助於保護麥當勞的品牌標準，以確保每天都能提供出色的客戶體驗。

Restarting PACE in 2022 led to strong operational improvements in several key markets as a result of a more dedicated consulting and coaching time to support lower-performing restaurants. For example, the U.K. saw improved customer satisfaction, speed of service and overall experience for these restaurants. In Spain, restaurants that had the lowest customer satisfaction scores in the drive-thru improved to be at the same level as top-performing restaurants by the end of 2022. Additionally, as a result of this program, France saw increases of 30% in customer satisfaction scores at locations with the lowest scores.

在 2022 年重啟 PACE 後，由於投入了更多專門的諮詢和指導時間來支持業績不佳的餐廳，因此在幾個關鍵市場實現了強勁的運營改進。例如，英國的這些餐廳的客戶滿意度、服務速度和整體體驗都有所提高。在西班牙，到 2022 年底，在得來速餐廳中顧客滿意度得分最低的餐廳將提高到與表現最好的餐廳相同的水平。此外，由於該計劃，法國的顧客滿意度增加了 30%得分最低的地點的客戶滿意度得分。

PACE clearly drives operational improvements, which provides a better customer experience that in turn drives business performance. This month, the U.S. also restarted PACE, and we expect to see similar operational benefits in our largest market in 2023.

PACE 顯然會推動運營改進，從而提供更好的客戶體驗，進而推動業務績效。本月，美國也重啟了 PACE，我們預計 2023 年我們最大的市場將看到類似的運營收益。

I'll now turn it back to Ian to talk in more detail about our 2023 outlook.

我現在把它轉回 Ian，更詳細地談談我們 2023 年的展望。

As Chris just discussed and as I talked about last quarter, we continue to operate in an extremely dynamic environment. Looking ahead to this year, we anticipate macro-related pressures will continue to weigh on both our consumers and our business. With significant inflationary headwinds across commodities, labor and utilities, our company-operated margin percent will be hampered in the near term, and we expect full year 2023 company-operated margin percent will be slightly lower than our quarter 4 results.

正如克里斯剛才討論的以及我上個季度談到的那樣，我們繼續在一個極其動態的環境中運營。展望今年，我們預計與宏觀相關的壓力將繼續對我們的消費者和我們的業務造成壓力。由於大宗商品、勞動力和公用事業面臨嚴重的通脹逆風，我們的公司運營利潤率在短期內將受到阻礙，我們預計 2023 年全年公司運營利潤率將略低於我們第四季度的業績。

This elevated cost environment is also impacting restaurant cash flow for our franchisees, particularly in our European markets. As we've previously mentioned, our financial strength and scale gives us the ability to provide temporary and targeted support, ultimately keeping our entire system aligned on proactively investing to drive long-term growth. We estimate that these efforts will have an impact of between $100 million to $150 million in 2023.

這種成本上升的環境也影響了我們加盟商的餐廳現金流，尤其是在我們的歐洲市場。正如我們之前提到的，我們的財務實力和規模使我們能夠提供臨時和有針對性的支持，最終使我們的整個系統保持一致，積極投資以推動長期增長。我們估計這些努力將在 2023 年產生 1 億至 1.5 億美元的影響。

Turning to G&A. The digital and technology investments that we've made over the past few years have been strong contributors to our top line growth. Moving forward, focusing on our evolution of Accelerating the Arches and, in particular, accelerating the organization will enable us to work more efficiently and effectively, harnessing our scale and reallocating resources to drive growth in the future. In 2023, we expect G&A to be between 2.2% and 2.3% of system-wide sales.

轉向 G&A。我們在過去幾年中進行的數字和技術投資為我們的收入增長做出了巨大貢獻。展望未來，專注於我們加速拱門的發展，特別是加速組織將使我們能夠更高效地工作，利用我們的規模和重新分配資源來推動未來的增長。到 2023 年，我們預計 G&A 將佔全系統銷售額的 2.2% 至 2.3%。

Despite the cost pressures throughout the P&L in 2023, we anticipate an operating margin of about 45% driven primarily by strong top line growth and franchise margin performance. We're projecting interest expense this year to increase between 10% and 12% compared to 2022, primarily due to higher average rates on our debt balances. And we expect our effective tax rate for the year to be between 20% and 22%. We anticipate currency translation will negatively impact earnings per share between $0.07 and $0.09 in the first quarter. As of now, we expect currency translation to be a slight tailwind for the full year. But as you have seen, currency rates have been fluctuating quite a bit recently. So we'll continue to keep you posted on the anticipated impact to our results.

儘管 2023 年整個損益表都面臨成本壓力，但我們預計營業利潤率約為 45%，主要受強勁的收入增長和特許經營利潤率表現的推動。與 2022 年相比，我們預計今年的利息支出將增加 10% 至 12%，這主要是由於我們的債務餘額平均利率較高。我們預計今年的有效稅率將在 20% 至 22% 之間。我們預計貨幣換算將對第一季度每股收益產生 0.07 美元至 0.09 美元的負面影響。截至目前，我們預計貨幣換算將對全年產生輕微的推動作用。但正如您所見，最近匯率波動很大。因此，我們將繼續讓您了解對我們結果的預期影響。

Transitioning to capital expenditures. We plan to spend between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion this year, about half of which will be dedicated to new unit openings. Globally, we plan to open about 1,900 restaurants with more than 400 of these openings in our U.S. and IOM segments, where we continue to see strong returns. The remaining 1,500-or-so new restaurants, including about 900 in China, will be across our IDL markets. As a reminder, our strategic partners provide the capital for these restaurant openings. Overall, we anticipate almost 4% unit growth from the about 1,500 net restaurant additions in 2023. We expect this will contribute, along with restaurants opened in 2022, nearly 1.5% to system-wide sales growth.

過渡到資本支出。我們計劃今年支出 22 億美元至 24 億美元，其中約一半將用於開設新單位。在全球範圍內，我們計劃開設約 1,900 家餐廳，其中 400 多家位於我們的美國和 IOM 細分市場，我們繼續在這些領域看到強勁的回報。其餘約 1,500 家新餐廳，包括約 900 家在中國，將遍布我們的 IDL 市場。提醒一下，我們的戰略合作夥伴為這些餐廳的開業提供了資金。總體而言，我們預計到 2023 年將淨增加約 1,500 家餐廳，單位數量將增長近 4%。我們預計這將與 2022 年開業的餐廳一起為全系統銷售額增長貢獻近 1.5%。

As Chris mentioned, work is underway on our fourth D, restaurant development, within Accelerating the Arches. We'll have more details to share later this year, but we're excited about the opportunity to accelerate the pace of our new unit openings moving forward.

正如 Chris 所提到的，我們的第四個 D（餐廳開發）的工作正在進行中，在 Accelerating the Arches 中。我們將在今年晚些時候分享更多細節，但我們很高興有機會加快我們新單位開業的步伐。

And finally, we expect to generate strong cash flow in 2023, enabling us once again to convert more than 90% of our net income to free cash flow. Going forward, our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: first, to invest in new units and opportunities to grow the business, along with reinvesting in existing restaurants; second, to continue growing our dividend; and third, to repurchase shares.

最後，我們預計 2023 年將產生強勁的現金流，使我們能夠再次將 90% 以上的淨收入轉化為自由現金流。展望未來，我們的資本配置重點保持不變：首先，投資於新單位和發展業務的機會，同時再投資於現有餐廳；第二，繼續增加我們的紅利；第三，回購股份。

It's times like these that highlight the strength and scale of our McDonald's system. Although 2023 will bring short-term pressures, I'm confident that the resilience of our business and our strategy will continue to deliver long-term growth for our system and our shareholders. Now let me turn it back over to Chris to close.

正是這樣的時代凸顯了我們麥當勞系統的實力和規模。儘管 2023 年會帶來短期壓力，但我相信我們的業務和戰略的韌性將繼續為我們的系統和股東帶來長期增長。現在讓我把它轉回給克里斯結束。

The McDonald's global system is executing at a high level, and I'm optimistic that our Accelerating the Arches strategy offers us a long runway of growth despite the headwinds that we've discussed on this call. The McDonald's brand is in great shape, and yet there's so much more we can do.

麥當勞的全球系統正在高水平執行，儘管我們在本次電話會議上討論了不利因素，但我樂觀地認為我們的加速拱門戰略為我們提供了一條漫長的增長道路。麥當勞品牌狀況良好，但我們能做的還有很多。

In my travels throughout our global system, I sometimes like to ask our people, what exactly does McDonald's Corporation sell? As you might imagine, this usually prompts a lot of puzzled looks, and a brave soul or 2 will raise their hand and say, "Well, we sell great-tasting food or we sell burgers and fries." Of course, that's technically true. But as a largely franchised business, ultimately, McDonald's Corporation is in the business of selling a brand so that others can sell burgers and fries. And while some may see it as a trivial distinction, I see it as fundamental. As goes the McDonald's brand, so goes the health and economic value of our company and system.

在我遍及全球系統的旅行中，有時我喜歡問我們的員工，麥當勞公司到底賣什麼？正如您可能想像的那樣，這通常會引起很多疑惑的表情，一兩個勇敢的人會舉手說，“好吧，我們賣的是美味的食物，或者我們賣的是漢堡和薯條。”當然，這在技術上是正確的。但作為一家主要特許經營的企業，麥當勞公司最終從事的是銷售品牌的業務，以便其他人可以銷售漢堡和薯條。雖然有些人可能認為這是微不足道的區別，但我認為這是根本。正如麥當勞品牌一樣，我們公司和系統的健康和經濟價值也是如此。

Our Accelerating the Arches strategy is designed to build our brand to make McDonald's more relevant to more people more often. Our MCD growth pillars are driving system-wide sales, and the recently announced Accelerating the Organization initiative will help us unlock further growth by enabling our system to be even faster, more innovative and more efficient. Through Accelerating the Organization, we'll sharpen our priorities and increase our investments against our biggest opportunities.

我們的 Accelerating the Arches 戰略旨在打造我們的品牌，讓麥當勞更頻繁地與更多人產生關聯。我們的 MCD 增長支柱正在推動全系統的銷售，最近宣布的加速組織計劃將使我們的系統變得更快、更具創新性和效率，從而幫助我們實現進一步增長。通過 Accelerating the Organization，我們將明確我們的優先事項並增加我們對最大機會的投資。

I want to congratulate the McDonald's system on a terrific 2022 and thank all 3 legs of the stool, our franchisees, our suppliers and our company employees, for their dedication and passion for our business. A global pandemic, record-breaking inflation, a war in Europe, the McDonald's system continues to execute and deliver no matter the challenge, and I'm excited to continue our success into 2023.

我要祝賀麥當勞系統在 2022 年表現出色，並感謝凳子的所有 3 條腿、我們的加盟商、我們的供應商和我們公司的員工，感謝他們對我們業務的奉獻和熱情。全球大流行、破紀錄的通貨膨脹、歐洲的戰爭，無論面臨何種挑戰，麥當勞系統都在繼續執行和交付，我很高興能在 2023 年繼續取得成功。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mike to begin the Q&A.

有了這個，我會把它交給邁克開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from David Palmer with Evercore.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

A big-picture question tied into some of the stuff you were talking about in the U.S. It's been fascinating to see how McDonald's traffic in the U.S. has largely declined, most years at least, even as you've added about $1 million in sales per unit. And your customer satisfaction scores and the external stuff that we see, it's been stubbornly and surprisingly low. It's almost like the consumer is being more honest with his or her spending rather than these surveys. So I'm wondering, in your work, where do you see the customer satisfaction opportunity in the U.S., whether that's in convenience and speed or food or other? And do you think the U.S. will have a different same-store traffic outcome over the next year or decade based on some of the stuff that you're doing?

一個與你在美國談論的一些事情相關的大問題。看到麥當勞在美國的客流量如何大幅下降，至少在大多數年份是這樣，即使你增加了大約 100 萬美元的銷售額，這一直很有趣單元。你的客戶滿意度得分和我們看到的外部因素，一直很低，而且出奇地低。這幾乎就像消費者對他或她的支出比這些調查更誠實。所以我想知道，在您的工作中，您如何看待美國的客戶滿意度機會，無論是在便利和速度方面，還是在食品或其他方面？您是否認為根據您正在做的一些事情，美國在未來一年或十年內會有不同的同店客流量結果？

David, it's Chris. Thanks for the question. Well, I think starting with, we've talked about it on a number of calls over the last several years that guest count is a very imprecise measure, and it's imprecise because of what we've seen with delivery, but also what we've seen with digital, where we're now getting multiple orders. And so while it's important for us to always be attentive to guest count, I think also recognize that the complexion of how customers are experiencing the restaurant has changed. So from that vantage point, we look at things from a relative perspective. And we feel very good about our relative performance on that as evidenced by our strong traffic growth that we had in the U.S. this year.

大衛，是克里斯。謝謝你的問題。好吧，我認為首先，我們在過去幾年的許多電話中都談到過，客人數量是一個非常不精確的衡量標準，它不精確是因為我們在交付方面看到的，但也因為我們'我們已經看到了數字，我們現在收到了多個訂單。因此，雖然始終關注客人數量對我們來說很重要，但我認為也認識到顧客體驗餐廳的方式已經發生了變化。因此，從這個有利的角度來看，我們從相對的角度來看事情。我們對我們在這方面的相對錶現感到非常滿意，今年我們在美國的強勁流量增長就證明了這一點。

I think your larger question about the health of the brand, there are lots of different surveys. Ultimately for us, we have our own internal surveys, and customer satisfaction with McDonald's is strong. I think our brand clearly is resonating. As you've seen in our marketing communication, the fact that we have a modernized restaurant estate, I think, has been huge for us in terms of improving customer perception of the brand. And so I feel very good about that.

我認為你關於品牌健康的更大問題，有很多不同的調查。最終對我們來說，我們有自己的內部調查，客戶對麥當勞的滿意度很高。我認為我們的品牌顯然引起了共鳴。正如您在我們的營銷傳播中看到的那樣，我認為，我們擁有現代化的餐廳莊園這一事實在提高客戶對品牌的認知方面對我們來說意義重大。所以我對此感覺很好。

But for us, going forward, the opportunity for us to continue to make our brands more and more beloved is going to be on this digital opportunity. And as I mentioned in the opening comments there, digital gives us such an unlock to get more tailored in the experience, the offer and products that we're delivering to our customers. So I think for us, if we can get there on digital, that's going to be a big opportunity.

但對我們來說，展望未來，我們有機會繼續讓我們的品牌越來越受歡迎，這將是這個數字機會。正如我在那裡的開場評論中提到的那樣，數字化為我們提供了這樣一種解鎖方式，可以讓我們在向客戶提供的體驗、產品和產品中更加量身定制。所以我認為對我們來說，如果我們能夠通過數字方式實現這一目標，那將是一個巨大的機會。

And we've made a lot of progress. As you heard in the opening comments, about 35%, I think it's 36% in Q4, were digital transactions. And by the way, half of those digital transactions are known digital transactions, where we know the customer. Imagine if that number -- I'll just use as one outlier, close to 90% of our transactions in China are digital transactions. And imagine if most of those are known transactions, you could start to imagine what that can mean for the brand in the long term. So I'm optimistic about where we're at.

我們已經取得了很大的進步。正如你在開場評論中聽到的那樣，大約 35%，我認為第四季度是 36%，是數字交易。順便說一句，這些數字交易中有一半是已知的數字交易，我們了解客戶。想像一下，如果這個數字——我將僅作為一個異常值使用，我們在中國的近 90% 的交易都是數字交易。想像一下，如果其中大部分是已知交易，您可以開始想像這對品牌的長期意義。所以我對我們所處的位置感到樂觀。

Our next question is from David Tarantino with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Tarantino 和 Baird。

I had a question about the investments you're making in the franchisee system. I think, Ian, you mentioned it was $100 million to $150 million for this year. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate on why that was necessary given the strength you're seeing in the top line or the franchisees presumably are seeing in the top line and also some signs that maybe the cost environment has not been as bad as feared. And then maybe as part of that question, if you could just comment on where franchisee-level cash flows are today versus maybe where they were a year ago, that would be helpful.

我對您在加盟商系統中所做的投資有疑問。我想，伊恩，你提到今年是 1 億到 1.5 億美元。我只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明為什麼這是必要的，因為你在頂線看到了實力，或者特許經營商大概在頂線看到了，還有一些跡象表明成本環境可能沒有那麼糟糕害怕。然後也許作為該問題的一部分，如果您可以評論今天的加盟商級現金流量與一年前的現金流量，那將是有幫助的。

Great. David, thanks for the question. Well, I think as you've heard us and particularly me speak to, I think particularly in Europe, we're seeing some quite strong headwinds due to the levels of inflation on things like commodity costs, energy prices and, of course, labor. And I think the pace and scale of inflation mean that those headwinds are creating relatively significant levels of short-term impact to our margins and then, of course, to our franchisee cash flows.

偉大的。大衛，謝謝你的提問。好吧，我認為正如你聽到我們，特別是我所說的那樣，我認為特別是在歐洲，由於商品成本、能源價格，當然還有勞動力等方面的通貨膨脹水平，我們看到了一些相當強勁的逆風.而且我認為通貨膨脹的速度和規模意味著這些不利因素正在對我們的利潤率產生相對顯著的短期影響，當然也會對我們的加盟商現金流產生影響。

And I think one of the competitive advantages that we have as a global franchisor with our size, our scale and our brand strength is that we're able to provide that temporary and targeted support for our franchisees, which we always, of course, direct to where it's most needed. I mean, I would use the U.K. as a bit of an example in Europe. I mean, I think, obviously, we've seen significant levels of food inflation, significant levels of energy inflation. Even though energy maybe hasn't gotten to the peak of where some were predicting because Europe's had a warm or milder winter so far, I mean, it's still significantly above where it was 12 to 18 months ago. And I think, again, just the pace and scale of that impact is creating quite a bit of pressure on margins and cash flow, as I said.

而且我認為，我們作為全球特許經營商擁有的競爭優勢之一，我們的規模、我們的規模和我們的品牌實力是我們能夠為我們的特許經營商提供臨時和有針對性的支持，當然，我們總是直接到最需要的地方。我的意思是，我會用英國作為歐洲的一個例子。我的意思是，我認為，很明顯，我們已經看到了嚴重的食品通脹和嚴重的能源通脹。儘管能源可能還沒有達到一些人預測的峰值，因為到目前為止歐洲的冬天溫暖或溫和，但我的意思是，它仍然明顯高於 12 到 18 個月前的水平。我再次認為，正如我所說，這種影響的速度和規模正在對利潤率和現金流造成相當大的壓力。

And our size and scale, as I said, just allows us -- puts us in a position to provide that support, direct it to where it's most needed. I think, honestly, that's nothing new for McDonald's. I mean, it occurs from time to time around the world when conditions warrant. It's just a little bit more significant now just due to the broader nature and scale of some of those short-term impacts that we're seeing. And like if you remember, during COVID, we did provide support to our system. It was critically important because it allowed all of our system to stay focused on our plans and was really fundamental to the accelerated momentum that we saw through and then coming out of the pandemic.

正如我所說，我們的規模和規模讓我們能夠提供這種支持，將其引導到最需要的地方。我認為，老實說，這對麥當勞來說並不是什麼新鮮事。我的意思是，當條件允許時，它會不時在世界各地發生。由於我們所看到的一些短期影響的更廣泛的性質和規模，它現在變得更重要了一點。如果您還記得，在 COVID 期間，我們確實為我們的系統提供了支持。這非常重要，因為它使我們所有的系統都能夠專注於我們的計劃，並且對於我們看到並從大流行中走出來的加速勢頭確實至關重要。

This is a very similar situation. I mean, our system is highly aligned. It's confident, and it's focused on our strategic plans and is continuing to proactively invest against the opportunity areas that we have. So I think it's this that's really going to help us stay focused on the category-leading momentum we have and make sure that we -- as we get out of these headwinds, we're in the strongest possible position.

這是一個非常相似的情況。我的意思是，我們的系統高度一致。它充滿信心，專注於我們的戰略計劃，並繼續積極投資於我們擁有的機會領域。所以我認為這真的會幫助我們專注於我們擁有的類別領先勢頭，並確保我們 - 當我們擺脫這些逆風時，我們處於最強大的位置。

Our next question is from Eric Gonzalez with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Eric Gonzalez。

Maybe if I can ask one about unit growth, if I can. I'm not sure you already finished '22 on a gross basis, but I'm guessing based on the year-end CapEx number that it was maybe slightly below your expectations. And then this year, you're expecting development to be a bigger focus and an uptick in unit openings to about 1,900. So maybe if you can comment on where you're starting to see maybe some improvement in the construction and permit timing and also what you're seeing in terms of build-out costs, perhaps directionally new unit economics given those higher costs and presumably the lower margins that you're signaling with your guidance.

如果可以的話，也許我可以問一個關於單位增長的問題。我不確定你是否已經完成了 22 年的總收入，但我猜測根據年底的資本支出數字，它可能略低於你的預期。然後今年，您預計開發將成為更大的焦點，並且單元開放數量將增加到約 1,900 個。因此，如果您可以評論您開始看到的建設和許可時間方面的一些改進，以及您在擴建成本方面看到的情況，也許是定向新的單位經濟，因為這些成本更高，而且可能是降低您在指導下發出的信號的利潤率。

Eric, yes, thanks for that. I think for sure, in '22, we had some impact just from that -- coming out of COVID, some of the impacts on just getting permits approved. I mean, as you've heard us talk about in our outlook for '23, we think we're going to open on a gross basis about 1,900 locations, about 1,500 on a net basis. If you look specifically at the U.S. and IOM segments, we're planning about 400 openings there, and that's up about 25% from where we landed on in 2022. So I think that's a sign of the confidence we have and the opportunity that we've got in those segments to begin to start accelerating openings as we've talked about adding that fourth D, development.

埃里克，是的，謝謝你。我認為可以肯定的是，在 22 年，我們就從中產生了一些影響——來自 COVID，一些影響只是獲得許可的批准。我的意思是，正如您在 23 年的展望中聽到我們所說的那樣，我們認為我們將在總計上開設約 1,900 個地點，在淨基礎上約 1,500 個。如果你具體看看美國和 IOM 細分市場，我們計劃在那裡開設大約 400 個職位空缺，這比我們 2022 年的目標增加了約 25%。所以我認為這表明我們有信心，也表明我們有機會在我們談到添加第四個 D（開發）時，這些細分市場開始加速開放。

For sure, I think there's certainly some inflation on the construction and development costs like we're seeing across almost every sector today. But we also know we've got opportunity, I think, to be more efficient and effective in our investments that we're making in some of the restaurant formats and how we can get more efficient and effective as we bring those formats up. And so feel really good about the returns that we're continuing to generate, particularly in the U.S. and our IOM segments, and feel confident in the opportunity we've got to add more units as we go forward.

可以肯定的是，我認為建築和開發成本肯定存在一些通貨膨脹，就像我們今天在幾乎每個行業都看到的那樣。但我認為，我們也知道我們有機會提高我們在某些餐廳模式中進行的投資的效率和效果，以及我們如何在提升這些模式時提高效率和效果。因此，對我們繼續產生的回報感到非常滿意，特別是在美國和我們的 IOM 細分市場，並且對我們在前進過程中必須增加更多單位的機會充滿信心。

Yes. I would just add a couple of things. I mean, think about the U.S. for a moment. We haven't added new units in the U.S. in 8 years. I mean, 2014 was the last year that we actually grew restaurants in the U.S. So we've had 8 years where we have been focused largely on a remodel program. And in that same period of time, I think everybody would agree, our U.S. business is in a significantly better shape today than it was back then.

是的。我只想補充幾件事。我的意思是，想一想美國。我們已經 8 年沒有在美國增加新單位了。我的意思是，2014 年是我們實際上在美國開設餐廳的最後一年。所以我們有 8 年的時間主要專注於改造計劃。在同一時期，我想每個人都會同意，我們的美國業務今天的狀況比當時要好得多。

And so you look at our 3-year stack, our 3-year stack in the U.S. is 25%. Our global 3-year stack is also around 25%. We've grown the business to a great degree. And what we haven't done is we haven't kept up with the new unit pace, particularly in our owned markets, U.S. and IOM. And so we're spending the time right now to get a very granular look at where we would build, at what pace and what types of restaurants. And that's the -- what we plan on sharing with you at the end of 2023.

所以你看看我們 3 年的堆棧，我們在美國的 3 年堆棧是 25%。我們的全球 3 年堆棧也約為 25%。我們已經在很大程度上發展了業務。我們沒有做的是我們沒有跟上新單位的步伐，特別是在我們自己的市場，美國和 IOM。因此，我們現在花時間非常詳細地了解我們將在哪裡建造、以什麼速度建造以及建造什麼類型的餐廳。這就是我們計劃在 2023 年底與您分享的內容。

Our next question is from Jeff Bernstein with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的傑夫伯恩斯坦。

Great. Just a question on the U.S. and Europe, clearly strong double-digit comp performance. I'm just wondering as you kind of look beneath the top line, any sign of slowing macro impact in the consumer or perhaps any concern of consumer pushback on the outsized menu pricing? Or maybe just looking more broadly, any color on McDonald's versus the industry in terms of market share in key markets since we know everyone is being more aggressive on price? Any kind of color you could provide would be great.

偉大的。只是一個關於美國和歐洲的問題，顯然兩位數的強勁表現。我只是想知道，當你看到頂線下方時，是否有任何跡象表明對消費者的宏觀影響正在放緩，或者消費者是否擔心超大菜單定價？或者也許只是從更廣泛的角度來看，麥當勞在主要市場的市場份額方面與行業相比有什麼顏色，因為我們知道每個人都在價格上更具侵略性？你能提供的任何一種顏色都會很棒。

I think overall, we're still seeing the consumer is resilient, and it plays to our strengths as a system in terms of being well positioned on value. We lead in every market around the world on affordability and value for money. And so that puts McDonald's in a strong position.

我認為總的來說，我們仍然看到消費者是有彈性的，並且它在價值定位方面發揮了我們作為一個系統的優勢。我們在全球每個市場的可負擔性和物有所值方面都處於領先地位。因此，麥當勞處於強勢地位。

We've talked about on prior calls, there is a little bit of a decrease in units per transaction that we're seeing. We're seeing a little bit of trade-down. But I got to say, these are probably on the margin that we're seeing this. Overall, the consumer, whether it's in Europe or the U.S., is actually holding up better than what we would have probably expected or maybe what I would have expected a year ago or 6 months ago.

我們在之前的電話中談到過，我們看到的每筆交易的單位數量有所減少。我們看到了一些折價交易。但我必須說，這些可能只是我們看到的邊緣。總的來說，無論是在歐洲還是在美國，消費者的表現實際上比我們可能預期的要好，或者比我一年前或 6 個月前的預期要好。

So I think the question is as we go into 2023, there is going to continue to be inflation. The environment is going to continue to be challenging, I think, from a macro standpoint. And so do you reach a point where maybe it does start to materialize around the consumer? Certainly, consumer sentiment out there remains depressed in many markets. But we're not seeing it right now. I think this goes back to what I said in the opening, though. We have to be very judicious. And our franchisees have been great about the pace of pricing, where we're just making sure that we're keeping the customer engaged and coming into our restaurants as we're working through the menu pricing. And we're today still seeing flow through on pricing in line with our historical numbers. So not seeing any big resistance right now.

所以我認為問題是當我們進入 2023 年時，通貨膨脹將繼續存在。我認為，從宏觀的角度來看，環境將繼續充滿挑戰。那麼你是否達到了它可能開始在消費者周圍具體化的地步？當然，許多市場的消費者情緒仍然低迷。但我們現在還沒有看到。不過，我認為這可以追溯到我在開場白中所說的。我們必須非常明智。我們的特許經營商對定價的速度一直很滿意，我們只是確保在我們通過菜單定價工作時讓顧客參與進來並進入我們的餐廳。我們今天仍然看到與我們的歷史數據一致的定價流程。所以現在沒有看到任何大的阻力。

Maybe I'll just hook on to that a little bit because I think as Chris touched on, I mean, we're laser-focused on those 2 consumer-facing metrics and value for money and making sure we've got those affordable choices across our menu. And I think as Chris said, we're in a leadership position across the majority of our top markets in both of those metrics. And we know that even though those metrics have probably come down a little bit over the last 12 months or so on the back of higher pricing, the gap to the competitive set that we have has remained consistent. And so as Chris talked about, I think we've had a good discipline around pricing and making sure we keep that strong value for money in place.

也許我會稍微強調一下，因為我認為正如克里斯談到的那樣，我的意思是，我們非常專注於這兩個面向消費者的指標和物有所值，並確保我們有這些負擔得起的選擇在我們的菜單上。我認為正如克里斯所說，我們在這兩個指標中的大多數頂級市場都處於領先地位。而且我們知道，儘管在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡，由於價格上漲，這些指標可能有所下降，但我們與競爭對手的差距一直保持一致。正如克里斯所說，我認為我們在定價方面有很好的紀律，並確保我們保持物有所值。

I think the other thing that's important to highlight is we know that we're continuing to gain share across all of those key markets. And so another kind of proof point of, I think, how we're navigating and continue to resonate with consumers. I mean, I think at the end of the day, value for money is about the experience we deliver over the price we charge. And I think it goes back to what Chris touched on earlier that we've made a lot of investments over the last couple of years in the experience.

我認為另一件需要強調的重要事情是我們知道我們將繼續在所有這些關鍵市場中獲得份額。因此，我認為，另一種證據表明我們如何導航並繼續與消費者產生共鳴。我的意思是，我認為歸根結底，物有所值是關於我們提供的體驗超過我們收取的價格。我認為這可以追溯到克里斯早些時候提到的，我們在過去幾年中對經驗進行了大量投資。

We've got a fully modernized estate. I think we've upped our game in terms of our marketing creativity and execution. We've invested a lot in our digital capabilities and interaction with consumers. And I think all of those strengths are coming together now. And I think our focus as we head into 2023 is really on making sure that each and every time consumers choose to come into one of our restaurants, we deliver them a great experience and continue to ensure that we earn those visits each and every time.

我們有一個完全現代化的莊園。我認為我們在營銷創意和執行力方面已經提升了水平。我們在數字能力和與消費者的互動方面投入了大量資金。我認為所有這些優勢現在都在匯聚在一起。而且我認為我們進入 2023 年的重點實際上是確保每次消費者選擇進入我們的餐廳之一時，我們都會為他們提供出色的體驗，並繼續確保我們每次都能贏得這些訪問。

Our next question is from Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布賴恩港。

Maybe I'll just ask about the kind of 45% operating margin outlook for the year and the components of that. Do you think that as a result of kind of the Accelerating the Organization strategy that there will be some savings in G&A over time? Or is this just perhaps a reallocation? Would you expect to continue to see some leverage on the franchise margin side, for example? I guess I'm just trying to think through some of the drivers of that.

也許我會問一下今年 45% 的營業利潤率前景及其組成部分。您認為隨著時間的推移，加速組織戰略會節省一些 G&A 費用嗎？或者這只是重新分配？例如，您是否希望繼續在特許經營利潤方面看到一些影響力？我想我只是想通過一些驅動因素來思考。

Brian, yes, thanks for the question. Well, let me talk about, I guess, a couple of the pieces. I mean, when you think about operating margin, for sure, there are a couple of specific pressures that we're working through that we believe are short term in nature. Obviously, we've got that pressure on our company-operated margins from the inflationary pressures that we're working through. And so that's an impact. Obviously, we've got the incremental support we're providing to franchisees, which is an impact focused on 2023. So we'll have both of those pressures to work through this year.

布賴恩，是的，謝謝你的提問。好吧，讓我談談，我想，一些作品。我的意思是，當你考慮營業利潤率時，可以肯定的是，我們正在努力應對一些特定的壓力，我們認為這些壓力本質上是短期的。顯然，我們正在應對的通貨膨脹壓力給公司運營的利潤率帶來了壓力。這就是影響。顯然，我們已經獲得了為特許經營商提供的增量支持，這是對 2023 年的影響。因此，今年我們將面臨這兩種壓力。

I think in regards to G&A and ATO, I mean, as you heard in my opening comments, we expect G&A for the year to be between 2.2% and 2.3%. Any kind of outcomes -- and just a reminder on ATO is it's really focused on our ways of working, which the output is how do we get more efficient, how do we reallocate resource against innovation and growth and how do we make sure we're moving faster as an organization. So any of the outputs of ATO are kind of included in our 2023 guidance for G&A.

我認為關於 G&A 和 ATO，我的意思是，正如你在我的開場評論中聽到的那樣，我們預計今年的 G&A 將在 2.2% 到 2.3% 之間。任何一種結果——提醒 ATO，它真正關注的是我們的工作方式，結果是我們如何提高效率，我們如何重新分配資源以應對創新和增長，以及我們如何確保我們”作為一個組織，我們正在更快地前進。因此，ATO 的任何產出都包含在我們的 2023 年 G&A 指南中。

I think certainly, the best way to work through any kind of short-term pressures is to continue to make sure we're driving strong top line momentum, which I think our quarter 4 results reflect, and that's certainly our focus for 2023. And as we get through these short-term pressures, certainly believe that, that strong top line momentum will mean that we're beginning to drive greater leverage and operating margin and anything that's kind of dependent on sales as we go forward like G&A. And so I think we certainly expect to see that beyond '23.

我認為當然，應對任何短期壓力的最佳方法是繼續確保我們正在推動強勁的營收勢頭，我認為我們的第四季度業績反映了這一點，這當然是我們 2023 年的重點。而且當我們度過這些短期壓力時，當然相信，強勁的頂線勢頭將意味著我們開始推動更高的槓桿率和營業利潤率以及任何在我們前進時依賴於銷售的東西，比如 G&A。因此，我認為我們當然希望在 23 年後看到這一點。

Our next question is from Lauren Silberman with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Lauren Silberman。

So obviously, very strong U.S. comps. Can you talk about specifically what you saw with traffic and average check in the quarter and performance across dayparts, if there's anything notable there? And then just as it relates to share gains, what are you seeing with the lower-income consumer versus the high-income consumer?

很明顯，非常強大的美國公司。如果有什麼值得注意的地方，您能否具體談談您在該季度的流量和平均檢查以及跨時段的性能方面看到的情況？然後，就股票收益而言，您對低收入消費者與高收入消費者的看法如何？

Yes. So focusing just on the U.S., I think what we saw from a performance standpoint was very balanced growth across the dayparts. So nothing particularly noteworthy there. Late night for us continues to be the opportunity just because of some changes that we've made around operating hours due to the staffing environment. But around kind of our core dayparts, that's been very strong.

是的。因此，僅關注美國，我認為從業績的角度來看，我們在各個時段的增長非常均衡。所以那裡沒有什麼特別值得注意的。深夜對我們來說仍然是一個機會，因為由於人員配置環境，我們在營業時間周圍做了一些改變。但是圍繞我們的核心時段，這非常強大。

We're also seeing strong growth on our core menu, particularly on chicken, where we've been gaining share -- quite a bit of share on chicken. We've gained about 1 point of share on chicken in the last year. And then if you think about beef, we're also continuing to grow our share in beef despite having a very strong presence in that already. So nice balanced growth with the U.S. Digital and delivery, of course, are driving outsized growth. So digital, if you look at digital transactions, up close to 40% in the U.S., which is above obviously the 25% -- or the 10%, rather, growth that we saw in Q4.

我們也看到我們的核心菜單有強勁增長，特別是雞肉，我們一直在增加份額——相當多的雞肉份額。去年，我們在雞肉方面的份額增加了大約 1 個百分點。然後，如果您考慮牛肉，儘管我們已經在牛肉方面擁有非常強大的影響力，但我們還在繼續增加我們在牛肉方面的份額。當然，美國數字和交付的良好平衡增長正在推動超額增長。所以數字化，如果你看一下數字交易，在美國接近 40%，這顯然高於我們在第四季度看到的 25% 或 10% 的增長。

And then on the low-income consumer, I'd say the only thing that is probably noteworthy there is while the units per transaction is maybe down slightly, we're seeing a little bit of an uptick in frequency of visits. And so I think that's maybe something where the customer is coming in, being a little bit more cautious about how much they're ordering. They're probably spending to an absolute dollar amount, but we're seeing a little bit of an improvement around frequency with that low-income consumer.

然後關於低收入消費者，我想說的唯一可能值得注意的是雖然每筆交易的單位可能略有下降，但我們看到訪問頻率略有上升。所以我認為這可能是客戶進來的地方，對他們訂購的數量更加謹慎。他們可能花費了絕對數額的美元，但我們看到低收入消費者的消費頻率有所改善。

Maybe just I'll hook on a couple of additional kind of pieces of texture. I mean, I think if you look at the full year in the U.S., we were up about 10% from an average pricing standpoint. And as Chris talked about a little bit earlier, a couple of partial offsets to that. One is we continue to kind of see this reversion of order channels more to the kind of pre-COVID behavior. So of course, while delivery is still elevated, it's come back a little bit as customers kind of revert to more typical ordering channels.

也許只是我會勾上一些額外的紋理。我的意思是，我認為如果你看一下美國的全年，從平均定價的角度來看，我們上漲了大約 10%。正如 Chris 之前談到的那樣，有一些部分抵消了這一點。一是我們繼續看到訂單渠道更多地轉向 COVID 前的行為。因此，當然，雖然交付量仍然很高，但隨著客戶恢復到更典型的訂購渠道，它會有所回升。

And then as Chris also touched on, you've got that -- maybe that more value-conscious, discerning kind of choice making that consumers are making. I think 2 things that are really important. I mean, value for money and affordability, which we've already talked to, we know we're in a really strong leadership position in the U.S. business. And I think the second thing is that on a comp basis, we continue to gain share. And I think those are both strong proof points of the fact that we're well positioned and the fact that we are in a position to ensure that we are affordable and accessible for our consumers despite their individual circumstances as we go forward.

然後正如克里斯也談到的那樣，你已經明白了——也許消費者正在做出更注重價值、更挑剔的選擇。我認為有兩件事非常重要。我的意思是，我們已經討論過物有所值和負擔能力，我們知道我們在美國業務中處於非常強大的領導地位。我認為第二件事是，在補償的基礎上，我們繼續獲得份額。而且我認為這些都是強有力的證據，證明我們處於有利地位，而且我們能夠確保我們的消費者在我們前進的過程中，無論他們的個人情況如何，都能負擔得起和接觸到我們。

Our next question is from Dennis Geiger with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Dennis Geiger。

Chris, following all the momentum in 2022 and really in recent years, could you talk a bit more about the biggest opportunities that you see as it relates to continuing to drive that guest count momentum in '23 and perhaps beyond? I don't know if it's the same in the U.S. as key global markets, but just curious how you'd kind of think about or rank order some of the opportunities that you've spoken to on the call.

克里斯，繼 2022 年和最近幾年的所有勢頭之後，您能否多談談您看到的最大機會，因為它與繼續推動 23 年乃至以後的客人數量勢頭有關？我不知道它在美國是否與全球主要市場相同，但只是好奇你會如何思考或排列你在電話中談到的一些機會。

Yes. It really just goes back to the pillars that we have in our strategy. It's marketing, core menu and now the 4Ds. I think each of those still has quite a bit of runway of growth. I'm encouraged by what we're doing from a brand standpoint, but there's a lot more we can and will be doing on that to continue to strengthen our brand and marketing excellence. And we're still not as good as we could be around lifting and shifting great ideas around the world. And so we're going to get better at that through this Accelerating the Organization effort.

是的。它真的只是回到我們戰略中的支柱。它是營銷、核心菜單，現在是 4D。我認為它們中的每一個都有相當大的增長空間。從品牌的角度來看，我們正在做的事情讓我感到鼓舞，但我們可以而且將會做更多的事情來繼續加強我們的品牌和營銷卓越。而且我們在提升和改變世界各地的偉大創意方面仍然沒有達到應有的水平。因此，我們將通過加速組織工作在這方面做得更好。

On core menu, chicken for us is a big opportunity as is coffee. I think on burgers, we're very well developed. But chicken and coffee, in particular, offer us, I think, a good growth opportunity. And we're going to be focused on that with some very specific products as opposed to having that maybe be something in the past that was a little bit more left to individual markets to kind of chart their course.

在核心菜單上，雞肉對我們來說是一個很大的機會，咖啡也是。我認為在漢堡方面，我們非常發達。但我認為，尤其是雞肉和咖啡，為我們提供了一個很好的增長機會。我們將專注於一些非常具體的產品，而不是過去可能更多地留給個別市場來規劃他們的路線。

And then on the 4Ds, I think all of those for us have growth. So it's not a different playbook than what we're talking about with Accelerating the Arches. It's very much the same playbook. And what we're adding into the U.S. this year, as I mentioned in my comments in the opening, is on the operational side with PACE restarting. I've been very encouraged to see how PACE has been driving customer satisfaction when we put that in, and we're seeing improvement around service time. So you take all of the top line-driving initiatives related to the MCDs and you overlay on top of that improved operations or improved execution at the restaurant, and that gives me confidence in the outlook.

然後在 4D 上，我認為所有這些對我們來說都有增長。因此，這與我們正在談論的加速拱門並無不同。這是非常相同的劇本。正如我在開場評論中提到的，我們今年在美國增加的內容是在 PACE 重啟的運營方面。當我們將 PACE 放入其中時，看到 PACE 如何提高客戶滿意度，我感到非常鼓舞，並且我們看到了服務時間方面的改進。因此，您採取了與 MCD 相關的所有頂級線路驅動計劃，並疊加在餐廳改進的運營或改進的執行之上，這讓我對前景充滿信心。

Our next question is from Sara Senatore with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Sara Senatore。

I wanted to sort of just ask about this -- some of these initiatives in the context of McDonald's history, which is to say, when -- you mentioned, Chris, that it's been since -- 2014 since you had unit growth in the U.S. As I recall, unit growth had picked up a few years before then, but same-store sales slowed. And so there has -- historically, it seems like there's maybe a trade-off there. So that was one sort of piece that I wanted to ask about and how you think about that balance.

我想問問這個——其中一些舉措是在麥當勞歷史背景下進行的，也就是說，克里斯，你提到的是從 2014 年以來你在美國的單位增長。我記得，在那之前的幾年裡，銷量增長有所回升，但同店銷售額放緩了。因此，從歷史上看，似乎可能存在權衡取捨。所以這是我想問的一類作品，以及你如何看待這種平衡。

And then related, Chris, when you joined, there was an initiative, I think, around reducing some of the management layers and really streamlining and making the lines of communication clear between the markets and the headquarters. I guess, what's happened since then? Or it feels like it's maybe a renewed initiative to do that. So if you could just compare perhaps where you were to what you're doing now and where the reinvestments might be this time versus the last time.

然後相關的是，克里斯，當你加入時，我認為有一項舉措是圍繞減少一些管理層，真正精簡和明確市場與總部之間的溝通渠道。我想，從那以後發生了什麼？或者感覺這可能是一項新的舉措。因此，如果您可以比較一下您現在的位置和您現在正在做的事情，以及這次再投資與上次的再投資。

Sure. I think on your first point around unit growth versus comp growth, we have to walk and chew gum. It's not one or the other. It's the 2 of them in combination. And I think the big difference is when you want to be growing units is when you've got strong comp sales because that reflects the underlying health of the business. I'm always very leery when I see someone out there putting a strong unit growth number without strong underlying comp sales because that's historically not been a good recipe in our industry.

當然。我認為關於單位增長與薪酬增長的第一點，我們必須邊走邊嚼口香糖。這不是一個或另一個。是他們2個的組合。而且我認為最大的不同是，當你想要增加單位時，就是當你有強勁的銷售時，因為這反映了業務的潛在健康狀況。當我看到有人在沒有強勁的基礎銷售的情況下給出強勁的單位增長數字時，我總是非常謹慎，因為從歷史上看，這在我們的行業中並不是一個好的秘訣。

And so for us, I think we've got, as you've seen in our results, strong comp sales. I feel very good about the outlook. And so that now gives to me permission to put on top of that some unit growth. But we need to be very smart about where and how we do that. And I think sometimes in the past, we were looking at just putting units and looking at an absolute number and not maybe looking at the quality of the site. And so that's why we want to take some time this year to make sure we feel confident about the exact number, the pacing, the quality of the site so that when we do roll that out that we've got the ability to continue to drive both comp sales as well as unit growth.

因此，對於我們來說，正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣，我認為我們已經獲得了強勁的銷售。我對前景感覺很好。所以現在允許我在一些單位增長之上。但是我們需要非常聰明地知道我們在哪里以及如何做。而且我認為過去有時我們只考慮放置單位並查看絕對數量，而不是查看網站的質量。因此，這就是為什麼我們想在今年花一些時間來確保我們對網站的確切數量、節奏和質量充滿信心，這樣當我們推出它時，我們就有能力繼續推動comp 銷售額和單位增長。

And then your question about the organization, there's maybe some similarities with differences. I think if you go back to what was done in -- I think it was 2016 or thereabouts, I mean, that was savings that largely came about through refranchising a big chunk of our restaurants. And so that was -- as we took McOpCo percentage down and we moved more of that to the franchise side, that gave us some benefits from a G&A standpoint. There were some changes that happened in terms of delayering at the senior level, but what that effort was not about is ways of working. That was much more kind of, what I would say, are just business model approaches as opposed to ways of working. And what I've seen in my time in this job and also what I've seen in the U.S. when I was in that role is that we have a lot of opportunities to get faster, more innovative, more efficient. And it's because we have historically been very decentralized in some areas where we reinvent the wheel way too often.

然後是關於組織的問題，可能有一些相似之處和不同之處。我想如果你回顧一下所做的事情——我想那是在 2016 年左右，我的意思是，這主要是通過重新授權我們的大部分餐廳來實現的。這就是——當我們降低 McOpCo 的百分比並將更多的百分比轉移到特許經營方面時，從 G&A 的角度來看，這給了我們一些好處。在高層的延遲方面發生了一些變化，但這些努力與工作方式無關。我想說的是，這更像是一種商業模式方法，而不是工作方式。我在這份工作中所看到的以及我在美國擔任該職位時所看到的是，我們有很多機會變得更快、更具創新性、更有效率。這是因為從歷史上看，我們在某些領域非常分散，我們經常重新發明輪子。

And I think the other thing that we've seen is we haven't been as sharp around our global priorities. And so there's been proliferation of priorities that sometimes happen at the market level. I would just give you an example. As we're going through this ATO exercise and learning about where we have the opportunities, we're uncovering all sorts of interesting things, like, for example, one market that has 300 priorities. Well, of course, you can't have 300 priorities, and you can't resource 300 priorities. And so as we discover and learn these things, this is all going to be about making us better.

而且我認為我們看到的另一件事是我們在全球優先事項上沒有那麼敏銳。因此，市場層面有時會出現優先事項的激增。我只想給你舉個例子。當我們進行這項 ATO 練習並了解我們在哪裡有機會時，我們會發現各種有趣的事情，例如，一個有 300 個優先事項的市場。嗯，當然，你不能有 300 個優先級，你也不能為 300 個優先級分配資源。因此，當我們發現和學習這些東西時，這一切都是為了讓我們變得更好。

So the difference of today versus what we did maybe back in 2016, I think that was much more of a structural change related to our franchising model with some delayering at the senior level. This is much more fundamental about changing ways of working that I think ultimately are going to make us better both on the top line but I think are also going to give us efficiencies that flow through, as Ian was talking about with G&A leverage.

因此，今天與我們在 2016 年所做的不同，我認為這更多是與我們的特許經營模式相關的結構性變化，在高層有一些延遲。這對於改變工作方式更為根本，我認為這最終將使我們在頂線都變得更好，但我認為也會給我們帶來效率，正如 Ian 在談論 G&A 槓桿時所說的那樣。

Our next question is from Jon Tower with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Jon Tower。

Just curious, I know we've spoken quite a bit about some of the cost inflation and stuff like that running through the business across the globe in '23. Curious if you can give us an indication on your thoughts regarding pricing versus the inflation expectations for the full year and how you're working with your franchisees across the globe to address that.

只是好奇，我知道我們已經談了很多關於 23 世紀全球業務中的一些成本膨脹和類似的事情。想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對定價與全年通貨膨脹預期的看法，以及您如何與全球特許經營商合作解決這個問題。

And then second, if you could talk about the quarter-to-date industry data, particularly in the U.S., it's been quite strong to start the year. Curious to know if some of the strength that McDonald's saw in the fourth quarter has carried over into the first quarter.

其次，如果你能談談季度至今的行業數據，尤其是在美國，今年年初的數據非常強勁。很想知道麥當勞在第四季度看到的一些實力是否延續到了第一季度。

Jon, let me start on that one. And maybe just to give a bit of texture to my answer, I'll talk about it in a couple of pieces. I'll start with the U.S. and then talk a little bit about IOM but maybe with a focus on Europe. I mean, I think in the U.S., we would say we're past the inflation peak and kind of heading on that downward slope. But certainly, we had high inflation, mid-teens in '22 from a food and paper perspective. I think in '23, we think our food and paper inflation is going to be kind of mid- to high single digits. So still obviously very elevated from where it's been for a long time. And so in combination with that, you've also got energy prices that are up and interest rates and things like that, that are impacting us.

喬恩，讓我從那個開始。也許只是為了讓我的回答更有條理，我將分兩部分來討論。我將從美國開始，然後談談國際移民組織，但可能會重點關注歐洲。我的意思是，我認為在美國，我們會說我們已經過了通貨膨脹的高峰期，並且正在走下坡路。但可以肯定的是，從食品和紙張的角度來看，22 世紀 22 年代我們的通貨膨脹率很高。我認為在 23 年，我們認為我們的食品和紙張通脹將達到中高個位數。因此，與很長一段時間以來的水平相比，顯然仍然非常高。因此，與此相結合，您還會看到能源價格上漲，利率和類似的事情正在影響我們。

I think if you move to IOM with a focus on Europe, I think we're still working through the peak period of inflation. I don't think -- we think inflation will -- in Europe will start to ease probably until mid-2023. In fact, we'll see some markets in Europe with higher levels of inflation in '23 than we saw in 2022. And so I would say on an IOM basis for '23, we probably expect food and paper inflation to be kind of in that mid-teens, not substantially lower than what we saw in '22. So I think that gives you an indication of the level of the inflationary pressure.

我認為，如果你轉向關注歐洲的國際移民組織，我認為我們仍在努力度過通貨膨脹的高峰期。我認為——我們認為歐洲的通脹可能要到 2023 年年中才會開始緩解。事實上，我們會看到歐洲一些市場在 23 年的通脹水平高於我們在 2022 年看到的水平。所以我想說，在 23 年的 IOM 基礎上，我們可能預計食品和紙張通脹將在某種程度上十幾歲，並不比我們在 22 年看到的低很多。所以我認為這可以表明通貨膨脹壓力的水平。

Of course, energy prices in Europe, maybe while they haven't hit the peak, as I was talking about earlier because we've had a warmer winter in Europe so far, I mean, the underlying tensions aren't fully resolved yet. And inflation levels and energy prices are certainly up significantly where they were 12 months or so ago. And so I think from a pricing perspective, what we're trying to do is be very disciplined and be very consumer-led in our thinking.

當然，歐洲的能源價格可能還沒有達到峰值，正如我之前所說的那樣，因為到目前為止我們在歐洲度過了一個溫暖的冬天，我的意思是，潛在的緊張局勢尚未完全解決。通貨膨脹水平和能源價格肯定比 12 個月左右前大幅上漲。所以我認為從定價的角度來看，我們正在努力做的是非常有紀律，並且在我們的思維中非常以消費者為主導。

You may have heard me talk in the third quarter call just a little bit about the investments we've made over the last couple of years to really improve the tools, the data and the analytics that our advisers use to provide recommendations to the business. Of course, as always, our franchisees make their own pricing decisions. But I think as Chris talked about, we feel good that we're being very disciplined around the pricing we're taking. We're using a long-term mindset, knowing that what we want to continue to do is drive strong top line momentum so that we have that momentum through these pressures and then, of course, out of the pressures and begin to kind of recover margins and gain leverage as we go forward. And we think our system has done a really good job on that because when we look at our value for money and affordability scores, we continue to maintain those leadership positions.

你可能已經聽過我在第三季度的電話會議上談到了過去幾年我們為真正改進我們的顧問用來向企業提供建議的工具、數據和分析所做的投資。當然，一如既往，我們的加盟商會自行做出定價決定。但我認為正如克里斯所說，我們對我們在定價方面非常自律感到很好。我們正在使用一種長期的心態，知道我們想要繼續做的是推動強勁的頂線勢頭，以便我們在這些壓力下擁有這種勢頭，然後，當然，擺脫壓力並開始恢復隨著我們前進，利潤率和槓桿作用。我們認為我們的系統在這方面做得非常好，因為當我們查看我們的物有所值和負擔能力得分時，我們繼續保持這些領先地位。

And so I think '23 is kind of a moment in time where we're seeing kind of the peaks of those pressures but feel really good as we get out of '23 that the momentum that we're going to continue to drive will keep us in a really strong position to start gaining leverage again.

所以我認為 23 年是一個我們看到這些壓力達到頂峰的時刻，但當我們離開 23 年時感覺非常好，我們將繼續推動的勢頭將保持下去我們處於非常有利的地位，可以再次開始獲得影響力。

Yes. I just would add. I mean, I've seen some of the industry reports on the momentum heading into 2023, and we feel good about how our business is performing. But I think Ian touched on one thing. Just keep in mind, we've got Omicron, that's a tailwind. We've got good weather not just in Europe, but there's favorable weather in the U.S. So there are some things there that are helping, I think, industry-wide, but we feel very good about the momentum we're starting the year off with.

是的。我只是想補充一下。我的意思是，我已經看到了一些關於進入 2023 年的勢頭的行業報告，我們對我們的業務表現感到滿意。但我認為 Ian 談到了一件事。請記住，我們有 Omicron，這是順風。不僅歐洲的天氣很好，美國的天氣也很好。所以我認為，有些事情對整個行業都有幫助，但我們對今年開始的勢頭感覺非常好和。

Our next question is from Andrew Charles with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Charles 和 Cowen。

Chris, you expressed the same macro concerns in Europe as last quarter. But within IOM, strong 4Q comps, the U.K., France and Germany were called out as really standout performers. And so you spoke about a few country-specific operating highlights. But can you talk about the degree that Europe is benefiting from trade-down from higher-priced dining and how you're positioning the business to sharpen the focus on value in 2023 while recognizing franchisee profitability in Europe is seeing the greatest challenge?

克里斯，你表達了與上個季度相同的歐洲宏觀擔憂。但在 IOM 中，強大的 4Q comps、英國、法國和德國被稱為真正傑出的表現者。因此，您談到了一些針對特定國家/地區的運營亮點。但是，您能否談談歐洲從高價餐飲交易中受益的程度，以及您如何定位業務以在 2023 年更加關注價值，同時認識到歐洲特許經營商的盈利能力面臨最大挑戰？

And if I could just squeeze in one quick housekeeping question. How will the $100 million to $150 million of 2023 franchise release show up in the income statement? And if you anticipate that to be front half- or back half-weighted or spread evenly throughout the year, that would be helpful.

如果我可以插入一個快速的內務問題。 2023 年特許經營權發行的 1 億至 1.5 億美元將如何顯示在損益表中？而且，如果您預計全年將前半部分或後半部分加權或均勻分佈，那將很有幫助。

Why don't I have Ian cover the housekeeping item, and then I'll get to your broader question about Europe and the consumer.

為什麼我不讓 Ian 介紹家政項目，然後我會回答你關於歐洲和消費者的更廣泛的問題。

Yes. Andrew, so just on the $100 million to $150 million, that obviously is directed to support franchisees. And so it would show up through our franchisee revenue in the income statement as we work through that. I'll give it back to Chris for the rest.

是的。安德魯，所以就 1 億到 1.5 億美元，這顯然是為了支持特許經營商。因此，當我們處理這些問題時，它將通過我們的特許經營商收入顯示在損益表中。剩下的我會把它還給克里斯。

Yes. And to the question about trade-down and the benefits of that, we're seeing good balanced growth in Europe and in our IOM markets. So I wouldn't say that we are disproportionately benefiting from some sort of trade-down. To the degree that we have visibility kind of at the different strata of the consumer, we're continuing to see that hold up well across sort of all consumer segments.

是的。關於降價交易及其好處的問題，我們看到歐洲和我們的 IOM 市場實現了良好的平衡增長。所以我不會說我們從某種折價交易中不成比例地受益。就我們在不同消費者階層中的可見度而言，我們將繼續看到這種情況在所有消費者群體中都有很好的表現。

I have time for one last question from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

我有時間聽取摩根大通的約翰·伊万科 (John Ivankoe) 的最後一個問題。

The question is on CapEx and just overall capital needs of the business. Certainly, appreciate the guide for fiscal '23 at $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion, but that includes new units on 400 IOM and U.S. units. So I guess there's a couple of different parts to this. Do you think -- is that 400 number kind of the right number to think about in these developed markets going forward? Or could that number necessarily increase, I guess, is the first part?

問題在於資本支出以及企業的整體資本需求。當然，請欣賞 23 財年 22 億美元至 24 億美元的指南，但這包括 400 個 IOM 和美國單位的新單位。所以我想這有幾個不同的部分。您認為 - 400 個數字是否是在這些發達市場中考慮的正確數字？或者這個數字是否一定會增加，我猜，是第一部分？

Secondly, you did mention the completion of EOTF in the U.S. largely in '22. And I'm wondering if there's another large project, specifically, I guess, in the IOM markets, that may kind of take up for existing unit CapEx.

其次，您確實提到了 EOTF 在美國的完成，主要是在 22 年。我想知道是否還有另一個大型項目，特別是在 IOM 市場，可能會佔用現有單位的資本支出。

And finally, in the release, and I think this has been a really important thing for McDonald's 90% cash conversion, I mean, I suppose you mean of earnings, of your net earnings, I mean, is that the right ratio that you expect to hit on an annual basis going forward? Maybe getting a little bit of a preview of what you will talk about in -- later this year at your analyst meeting.

最後，在發布中，我認為這對於麥當勞 90% 的現金轉換來說是一件非常重要的事情，我的意思是，我想你的意思是收益，你的淨收益，我的意思是，是你期望的正確比率今後每年都要打嗎？也許可以預覽一下你將在今年晚些時候的分析師會議上談論的內容。

John, thanks for all that. So I think on the 400 openings, as Chris said, we'll have more to say on that later in the year. But I think what we've done well over the last couple of years is really build demand for the brand by investing in the brand, I think in doing a good job to resonate with consumers. And so certainly feel there's opportunity ahead. I think from a quantification standpoint, we'll talk about that, as I said, more later in the year.

約翰，謝謝你所做的一切。所以我認為，正如克里斯所說，關於 400 個職位空缺，我們將在今年晚些時候就此發表更多意見。但我認為我們在過去幾年中做得很好的是通過投資品牌來建立對品牌的需求，我認為做好與消費者產生共鳴的工作。所以肯定覺得前面有機會。我認為從量化的角度來看，正如我所說，我們將在今年晚些時候更多地討論這個問題。

On '23, the $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion of CapEx, about half of that is going to go towards new unit growth. I would say one of the things as we worked through COVID and dealt with kind of consumer shifts in behavior was we certainly understood there was an opportunity for us to deal -- obviously, we've got a lot more ordering channels coming into the restaurants. I think that's certainly -- and with the demand and volume that we've created, has created some challenges just in managing the capacity and the volume of customers we're dealing with in some of our restaurants across our owned markets.

23 年，22 億美元至 24 億美元的資本支出，其中約一半將用於新單位的增長。我想說的是，在我們應對 COVID 並應對消費者行為轉變的過程中，我們當然知道我們有機會應對——顯然，我們有更多的訂購渠道進入餐廳.我認為這肯定是 - 並且隨著我們創造的需求和數量，僅在管理我們在我們自有市場的一些餐廳中處理的客戶容量和數量方面就產生了一些挑戰。

And so some of that reinvestment CapEx is just going to us kind of working through these new ordering channels like delivery and digital and just enabling our restaurants to be better set up to deal with the volume of business that they're handling and to make sure that they can continue to grow volume by having more capacity available as we go forward. And so some of that capital is going there.

因此，一些再投資資本支出只是通過這些新的訂購渠道，如交付和數字，讓我們能夠更好地處理他們正在處理的業務量，並確保隨著我們前進，他們可以通過提供更多可用容量來繼續增加容量。因此，其中一些資本流向了那裡。

I think on the 90%, I think you should feel good that that's something that we feel will be in place going forward, as we've talked about a 93% in terms of converting our net income to free cash flow.

我認為在 90% 上，我認為你應該感覺良好，因為我們已經談到將淨收入轉化為自由現金流方面的 93%。

Okay. Thank you, Chris. Thanks, Ian. Thanks, everyone, for joining. Have a great day.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯。謝謝，伊恩。謝謝大家的加入。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes McDonald's Corporation investor call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

麥當勞公司投資者電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。