Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd (MAXN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Maxeon Solar Technologies Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Gary Dvorchak of the Blueshirt Group. Sir, you may begin.

Thank you, operator.

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Maxeon's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call. With us today are Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Waters, Chief Strategy Officer, Peter Aschenbrenner; Chief Financial Officer, Joanne Solomon; and incoming CFO, Kai Strohbecke.

Let me cover a few housekeeping items before I turn the call over to Jeff.

As a reminder, a replay of this call will be available later today on the Investor Relations page of Maxeon's website. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties that are described in the safe harbor slide of today's presentation, today's press release, the 20-F and other SEC filings. Please see those documents for additional information regarding those factors that may affect these forward-looking statements.

To enhance this call, we have also posted a supplemental slide deck on the Events and Presentations page of Maxeon's Investor Relations website.

Finally, we want to point out that our full year 2020 results reflect a carve-out of Maxeon's results while it was still a part of SunPower. We began operating as an independent company on August 27.

With that, let me turn the call over to Maxeon's CEO, Jeff Waters. Jeff?

Thank you, Gary, and good day, everyone.

I'll start by covering some key accomplishments over the past few months as well as a few of the challenges we're facing. Peter will then explain a major new initiative that we expect will open substantial new market opportunities for us. And finally, Joanne will review our financial performance and outlook, and then we'll go to Q&A.

I'd like to make a couple of comments at the outset. Firstly, I want to thank you all for your patience as we prepare these results. This is our first close in audit as a stand-alone company. As well, given that we spun off midway through 2020, we needed to incorporate a portion of the year as part of SunPower as well as the process of separating our operations from them.

On the CFO transition, as you know, Joanne is retiring soon, and we're sad to see her go. We are excited, though, to be able to replace her with an equally talented and dynamic CFO, Kai Strohbecke. Kai joins us in Singapore from Micron Technology, where he held senior financial positions for their global operations. Kai is on the call with us today having just started a few weeks ago. The orderly CFO transition will continue over the next 2 months with Joanne leaving the company at the end of May.

Now let's discuss our financial performance. We delivered solid fourth quarter performance, our first full quarter as an independent company. We continue to recover from the COVID-induced disruptions earlier in the year as shipments and revenue grew sequentially from both the distributed generation, or DG, and large-scale businesses. Despite headwinds from the global supply chain challenges, we posted positive adjusted EBITDA.

Growth was balanced with sequential growth in both product lines as well as in all geographies. We entered 2021 with a strong balance sheet, carrying more than $200 million of cash, close to $1 billion of assets and low leverage.

As you know, we're very excited by the growth opportunities for Maxeon. We're hard at work developing and executing the 3 pillars of our strategy. One, our differentiated global brand channel; two, our panel technology; and three, a focused approach to the utility-scale market. Although we're only a few quarters old, I'm encouraged by the recent progress in each of the pillars and how they're positioning us to grow.

Leveraging our brand channel and panels, we successfully introduced the first step of our beyond-the-panel strategy in DG, specifically, the introduction of our Maxeon AC modules with factory-integrated microinverters. These products offer attractive end-customer benefits while streamlining the design and installation process for our installer partners.

Maxeon AC modules are now shipping into 17 European countries and Australia. Initial feedback from customers and distributors has been positive, and we plan to introduce AC versions of our performance line panels later this year. This is a key initiative for Maxeon, driving significant margin uplift on an equivalent megawatt sales basis. It's also a testament to the strength of our trained channel partners and their ability to translate our significant technology differentiation into compelling customer benefits across the many markets we serve. Early indications suggest that AC panel sales should make up as much as 10% of our DG sales outside of the U.S. in Q2 and grow to over 20% by Q4.

AC modules are the first step in our beyond-the-panel strategy. This strategy leverages our panels, channel and brand to sell more complete systems to our customers, including the ability to add storage in certain markets. Last week, we announced a leader for this effort, Ralph Elias, who will be joining our executive team after having a successful career in driving consumer solutions. He was most recently the Head of Samsung's Smart Home IoT effort. Ralph will be solidifying and executing our vision for how to build smarter energy services globally. We welcome Ralph to the team and look forward to his leadership in building this exciting new business. I'm confident that even a year from now with Ralph's leadership, the value of our brand and dealer channel will be even more well recognized by investors.

We've also made exciting progress in the technology pillar of our growth strategy. We achieved key milestones in our Max 7 development program. Specifically, we achieved our target solar cell efficiency development milestone. We are increasingly confident that our new cell architecture can maintain the 3-point efficiency lead that we've held for decades.

Secondly, and perhaps as importantly, we significantly beat our target with respect to cell reverse bias breakdown, a critical parameter for limiting module hotspots when shaded. In addition to being inherently safer than conventional panels, the ability of our Max 7 cell architecture to evenly distribute currently shaded will allow us to simplify module circuitry and utilize disruptive module packaging technology. Expect to hear more from us on this subject soon.

Let me now discuss Q1. Starting with DG. Our DG business is traditionally very seasonal. First half volumes are typically only 40% of annual total, with the first quarter being the lowest. With that in mind, relatively speaking, demand for both our IBC and Performance product lines is healthy in all of our key DG markets. That said, like the rest of the market, we are seeing supply chain cost pressure across the board. This is true for both our IBC products and even more so for the Performance Series products sourced from our HSPV joint venture.

In particular, the price of certain BOM materials, such as solar cells, glass and aluminum, has increased markedly, and the cost of logistics is also significantly higher than in previous quarters. Although we expect the supply chain to return to normal within the year, we are acting aggressively to mitigate these cost pressures. We expect some immediate relief by raising prices on current products where possible.

For the second half of the year, we expect relief from 2 primary initiatives. First, we've accelerated the ramp of our Max 6 product in Malaysia. This product is anticipated to ramp in Q3 and will replace our 10-year-old Max 2. We expect Max 6 to command a higher price premium at lower cost and higher resulting margins. We anticipate this initiative will bring significant improvement in the second half of this calendar year.

Second, we're streamlining our IBC supply chain and improving utilization in Malaysia by moving production there for all modules destined for the EU and Asia. This shifts production away from our Mexicali plant, bringing it up for a large-scale initiative that Peter will describe in a moment. This same initiative will also further utilize our Malaysia factory, bringing it to full utilization for the first time in its history. Our factory optimization will continue during the year. We expect to emerge from 2021 with a more capital and cost-efficient factory network.

For our Performance line, our HSPV JV has been impacted by exposure to fluctuations in the China supply chain, especially pricing for mono-PERC cells, which have been traditionally outsourced. In our Q3 earnings call, we discussed the impact of these cost challenges and our ability to serve the utility-scale market outside of China. Unfortunately, conditions did not improve in the first quarter, and we now anticipate that elevated costs for solar cells, glass and freight could persist into the second half of the year. In response, we took quick action to decrease our exposure to the large-scale market. Module pricing in most markets is still not compatible with an elevated supply chain costs, although we are starting to see a necessary but gradual increase in price expectations from customers.

Inside of China, pricing and costs are more aligned, and our HSPV joint venture can sell the Performance line more profitably. We, therefore, again released most of our Performance line allocation rights for large scale for the next few months. We still do not expect to meaningfully ramp up our large-scale sales until later this year.

As we've said in the past, we have the flexibility to offtake our Performance line allocation when we can sell it profitably. We can also be patient and allow the upstream supply chain to recover when necessary. We continue to expand our global large-scale sales pipeline, which now sits at over 38 gigawatts. We will begin to accelerate the conversion of that pipeline into orders when the upstream supply chain returns more to normal.

Given this dynamic, we are taking proactive steps to shore up some of the more systemic supply chain challenges we see in the supply of cells. We are working closely with the JV to pursue a plan for it to manufacture more of its own cells and to mitigate the exposure it currently has to sell supply costs. We expect this capability to be in place by Q4 of this year. It is intended to effectively leverage the technology advances of TCS with its new G12 wafer format, the world's largest solar wafer in production. We're also planning to take advantage of both internal and external developments to address the U.S. market with our Performance line panels. The U.S. market is the largest outside of China, and we're very well connected by virtue of our historical routes.

I'll now turn the call over to Peter to provide some detail on the exciting initiative.

Thanks, Jeff.

Earlier today, we announced a significant new initiative to scale up our engagement in the U.S. market. There are 3 primary catalysts for this initiative. First, we expect accelerated growth in the U.S. market, driven by the increasingly competitive cost of solar power and solid support for renewable energy deployment by the new administration. The U.S. market is somewhat unique in terms of its supply chain requirements, and as a result, ASPs are quite favorable compared with other global markets.

Secondly, the multi gigawatt ramp of Maxeon's advanced shingled cell technology in our China joint venture has validated the feasibility and operational characteristics of this latest technology.

Finally, the ongoing realignment of our global manufacturing footprint has freed up space in our existing factories and enables a rapid copy exact deployment of shingled cell technology into Maxeon's factories outside of China.

Now let me dive a little deeper into the market structure and demand side of the equation. As many of you know, our exclusive supply agreement with SunPower covers sales of our IBC products into their residential and light commercial channels business, but permits Maxeon to conduct direct sales into the U.S. large-scale power plant segment.

Since spinning off from SunPower, we have been engaging with large-scale customers in anticipation of being able to deliver cost-effective Performance line panels into the U.S. market. The response has been positive, and we currently have a large-scale U.S. sales pipeline of over 18 gigawatts, including several late-stage opportunities. We expect to announce 1 or more contracts in the near future and expand our U.S. sales force to continue our focus on this segment. We'll continue to work with SunPower to address the DG market, and expect that the addition of price-competitive Performance line products to their premium IBC product portfolio would enable broader market coverage.

In Maxeon's core DG markets outside the U.S., Performance line panels have become a significant part of our business, allowing our sales and installation partners to offer a better, best product portfolio and increasing our share of account. We would expect SunPower to see a similar effect in the U.S. DG market following the introduction of Performance line panels.

On the supply side, we intend to capitalize on the current realignment of our global factory footprint which has freed up space in our Malaysian cell fab 3 as well as at our Mexicali Modco. We plan to utilize the space in fab 3 to install around 1.8 gigawatts of solar cell capacity, and plan to install equivalent Modco capacity in Mexicali. The production ramp is planned for early 2022, subject to obtaining the necessary funding. By using proven manufacturing technology in existing factories with trained workforces, we can quickly implement a shingled module supply chain appropriate for the U.S. market.

As we announced in our recent press release, we also plan to pursue a Phase II expansion with a second Modco located in the U.S. We'll begin the analysis of suitable sites in the U.S. immediately. And assuming the availability of adequate manufacturing incentives and continued demand strength, we expect deployment of up to an additional 1.8 gigawatts of module capacity in the U.S. sometime in 2023.

Now I'll turn the call over to Joanne to review our financial performance. Joanne?

Thank you, Peter, and hello, everyone.

I will discuss the drivers and details of our fourth quarter performance and provide some forward-looking information.

As Jeff mentioned, we continued our recovery from COVID. Overall, revenue grew 19% sequentially. We saw strong demand recovery in our DG business where revenue was up 12% sequentially and comprised 68% of our total revenue. We benefited from record shipments in our European DG channels with our success in selling both IBC and Performance line panels in the region. Quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in our large-scale business was up 35%, primarily on projects in Asia.

Geographic revenue mix for Q4 was well balanced with approximately 30% from the Asia Pacific region, 30% from the Americas and 40% from Europe and Middle East. We saw significant sequential revenue growth in Europe and North America as well as the benefit of large-scale projects in Asia. Steady growth in Europe has made it our largest region and is a testament to the power of our brands, channels and panels.

IBC product revenues increased 21% sequentially, driven by strong DG market demand and recovery from COVID. Our newest and highest-margin product, Max 5, grew nearly 60% sequentially and is a sign of the potential for that product as well as Max 6, which will begin to ramp in the second half of 2021.

Performance line revenue grew on the large-scale projects in Asia. About 70% of IBC revenues and 60% of Performance line revenues went into our DG business. In total, IBC products represented 69% of our revenues and 52% of megawatts.

Revenue per watt in our IBC product line was stable versus the previous quarter at slightly under $0.50. Performance line revenue per watt was stable at $0.25. Our differentiated technology supported our defense of our selling prices in the period.

By the end of 2021, we'll be in a much healthier and more profitable position with the IBC products family. Max 2 will be obsoleted, the first deployment of Max 6 will be in place, and the upgrade of Max 5 to Max 6 will be well underway. This will give us a healthy 1 gigawatt of total IBC capacity split evenly between our fabs in Malaysia and the Philippines, with it all targeted to the premium DG market. This capacity will suffice until we bring in Max 7 towards the beginning of 2023.

Moving down to P&L. Our Q4 gross profit was $7 million or 3% of revenues. As a reminder, we have a long-term supply contract for polysilicon at prices significantly above prevailing market rates. Our Q4 results include losses of $21 million attributable to that contract. Without those losses, gross profit would have been $28 million or 11%. The sequential decline in gross margin reflected higher raw material costs and the impact of material shortages as well as the product mix impact of a sequential increase in large-scale products. Operating expenses increased sequentially to $33 million, in part due to the incremental costs related to the separation from SunPower.

For Q1, we are expecting operating expenses to increase to approximately $38 million on incremental separation and consulting costs before returning to a run rate of about low to mid-30s per quarter for the balance of the year. Note that this expected OpEx level includes cost savings from our G&A transition to Asia and the investment to ramp our global sales and our Asia R&D resources.

Our Q4 EBITDA adjusted solely for stock-based compensation was a profit of $27 million. As described in our earnings release, our adjusted EBITDA includes a $44 million benefit of a remeasurement gain on the stock borrowing facilities associated with our green convertible notes. Adjusted EBITDA was adversely impacted by $21 million of losses associated with the above-market polysilicon contract.

Now let us turn to liquidity and capital investment. We ended the quarter with $207 million of cash after making payments under the long-term polysilicon contracts, the final installment of $30 million to AUO related to our acquisition of their legacy interest in our Malaysia factory and $14 million of capital investment. Our preliminary Q1 cash balance is $130 million, reflecting approximately $10 million for capital investment, $18 million in interest and vendor financing payments and a seasonal working capital adjustment.

For the full year 2021, we are planning capital investment of approximately $90 million, principally for Max 6 manufacturing lines, factory optimization and R&D for Max 7. We will increase capital investment to a total of approximately $170 million once we secure funding for our previously mentioned expansion of Performance line manufacturing to serve the U.S. market. We are expecting strong returns of the planned incremental investment as it will optimize our existing factory footprint and we expect to benefit from increasing our exposure to the growing and profitable U.S. DG and large-scale markets.

Finally, let me discuss our expectations for the first quarter of 2021. Before I get to the numbers, I'd like to provide some context. This discussion incorporates a sequential decline in DG revenue largely consistent with historical seasonal patterns. The sequential decline in large-scale volumes is more pronounced, as Jeff discussed. Furthermore, higher material and solar cell costs as well as logistics costs are impacting profitability. Our preliminary Q1 results have megawatts of about 375 or a 43% sequential decline and revenues of about $160 million or a 35% sequential decline. These preliminary numbers are subject to change as we continue the closing process.

GAAP gross profit is expected to be a loss of $5 million to a loss of $15 million. This includes expected out-of-market polysilicon loss of $15 million.

Finally, some smaller items to support modeling the expected Q1 results. Interest, taxes and depreciation should approximate $19 million, and stock-based compensation should approximate $1 million. Please keep in mind that our adjusted EBITDA is also expected to be impacted by an $8 million benefit for the mark-to-market adjustment associated with the stock borrowing facilities.

Now I'll turn the call back to Jeff to summarize before we go to Q&A. Jeff?

Thanks, Joanne.

As I mentioned earlier, there are 3 core pillars of Maxeon that should have investors excited about our growth potential: First, our unique and globally trusted DG brand and sales channels; second, our decades-long panel technology leadership; and third, our ability to address the utility-scale market with a value-driven focus.

We anticipate that these core pillars will result in us building profitable growth in 3 ways: profitable growth as we sell more than just panels with our brand and channels; profitable growth as we introduce disruptive new panel technology that will expand margins in markets; and profitable growth as we address the U.S. market holistically with the focus and differentiation you'd expect from a U.S.-listed company.

This confidence is reflected in our long-term financial targets to which we remain committed. Over the next few years, we expect to get to our run rate operating model of over 20% annual revenue growth, over 15% gross margin and over 12% EBITDA margin.

As a company, we are only a few quarters old. We have plenty of work to do, but we have the right team and assets to make it happen. We look forward to you taking the journey with us.

Now let's go to the Q&A session. Operator, please proceed.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.

Appreciate all the disclosure here and the preliminary Q1 guide as well.

Just wanted to clarify, Joanne. It sounded like we should be thinking about the DG volumes being down commensurate with typical seasonality. That implies what down like 15% to 20% from Q4 to Q1. That's typically what we see? Or would it be any different for you, guys?

For our seasonal decline, I think that's directionally correct, maybe a little bit higher.

Okay. Fair enough. That's super helpful. And then I just wanted to dig into the expanded SunPower relationship a little bit. I know they've been exclusive with you on the IBC. It's expanding to the P-Series. P-Series for -- it sounds like residential, correct me if I'm wrong. I don't know if that extends to commercial as well.

But can you maybe elaborate a little bit around the P-Series and how it positions competitively versus other products in the market for U.S. resi? Obviously, IBC carries a nice premium and captures that segment of the market pretty well. But just wondering how P-Series sort of fits into the mix here.

Yes, sure, Brian. Thanks for the question. This is Jeff.

So one of the things that we've seen over the course of the last 2-plus years overseas, so outside of the U.S., is for our dealer channel partners in DG, and that includes both resi and light commercial, having that complementary portfolio, having the IBC products to capture the higher end of the premium market, but then also having the Performance Series product to go along with IBC, but to be able to attack more of the market or be able to go after maybe consumers that are more concerned about short-term returns on their panels and potentially are less caring about the warranties that we have and all the other benefits that our premium panels bring. It's really helpful to be able to serve both of those customers.

And what we've actually seen overseas, and we expect probably a similar dynamic for SunPower is overseas we see our channel partners, historically, they would go in with IBC. But then if the customer was saying that they needed a cheaper panel, they would then have to go to one of our competitors. Now by having the Performance line, along with IBC, we've now got the ability to keep it all in-house within the Maxeon family.

And what you'll see is channel partners, in some cases, depending on the customer, they'll go in with the kind of the better panel, which is the Performance Series, or they'll start with the best panel, but they'll potentially start with the best and do a down sell to the better P-series or they'll start with the P-series and do the upsell to IBC.

So we think for SunPower in the U.S., it's going to give them kind of a similar capability and dynamic. It's something that they're excited about. And it's going to allow them, I think, to be able to capture a bigger footprint with their dealer channel partners, much like we experienced overseas.

Awesome. That's super helpful color. I appreciate that, Jeff.

And then maybe last one for me, I'll pass it on, is on the gross margins here on a GAAP basis, you're guiding to negative gross margins for Q1. Talking about cost pressures being elevated probably into the second half. So is it fair to assume that we're going to stay fairly negative or close to negative on the gross margin levels here in the first half before maybe we see some recovery in the back half? Is that kind of the cadence? Or is there going to be a faster setback than that here?

Yes. I don't know that I'll speak as directly to the gross margin side of it, maybe cover some of the dynamics. And then certainly, Joanne, if you want to follow-up with any additional color. I think as we look at the supply chain, I think as you've heard, of course, it's being widely communicated from all the players in the industry, the supply chain costs are up significantly. And I think what we're seeing is -- just to give you some color. Glass, we're seeing in Q2, some recovery. So glass prices were 2x what they were before. There may be 150% of what they were here with what we're seeing in Q2. So we're starting to see some recovery with glass, and that's really coming as more capacities coming online, but also as some of the demand is dropping within China.

With logistics, we're also seeing a drop in the horizon. In particular, in Q3, we're expecting some recovery there. It will still be higher than what we were seeing pre-COVID because of all the same dynamics. But we're starting to see those come back. The 2 that I think are a little bit tougher to gauge are silver and aluminum and also polysilicon, where it's kind of still to be determined. And even with glass and with logistics, how quickly they snap back, I think, is still something that our supply chain teams are monitoring and talking with the supply chain partners on a daily basis. So probably too early to handicap that. But certainly for Q1, it's as Joanne described in the prepared comments.

Yes. I think the only thing I would add is, as Jeff mentioned, our year is very seasonal with the second half being especially strong. And I think that does play with the margins as well. So we expect -- we certainly expect margin improvement just on seasonality. As Jeff mentioned, we're watching the supply chain very closely. I would -- Q2 is kind of that transition quarter. If things start to improve in the supply chain, you'll start to see improvement in Q2, but the strength is expected in Q3, Q4 with the strong seasonal results.

Our next question comes from the line of Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James.

Three months ago, you talked about volumes in the first half of '21 being disproportionately going into the Chinese market, which, of course, is not consolidated in your financials. Is that still the case?

Yes, that -- yes, that is still the case. So for the first half, the dynamics we're seeing, we're still going to have the vast majority of that JV volume for utility scale. We'll be going into the China market. Now for DG, we're going to continue to see the growth for the offtake there with -- as the volume and demand grows as DG does seasonally from Q1 to Q2 and into the second half. But yes, we're expecting that for Q1 and Q2.

I would say, Q3, we're going to see that bleed into Q3. But I think in Q3, Q4 is where we're going to start to see that transition. As we look now, a business that's in Q4, that we're starting to bid on and also -- and some in Q3, but then I would say even more so as we get into early '22, there is starting to be more of an equilibrium between pricing expectations from the market and where the supply chain costs are.

So we see the recovery on the horizon. How quickly it happens within 2021, I think, is still something that we're monitoring closely.

Okay. When you talk about the U.S. market having, I think you said special attributes or special features vis-à-vis better pricing, is that a comment on the tariff protection that's currently in place, Section 201 and 301?

I think certainly, that's an element of it. And it does make it a unique market in that regard. I would say, though, that a lot of the customers within the U.S., it is true of some other territories as well. I think one of the compelling business value that we bring is being a U.S. publicly listed company, I think, does make us a little bit different from many others that supply into the market. I think there are a lot of attributes that come along by virtue of that, that make us appealing to the marketplace as well.

So given our history there, we see it as a very attractive market for us. And it's one of the reasons why we're so bullish on the U.S., both for DG and the expanded growth with SunPower, but also on the utility-scale side.

Okay. Last question for me. This is -- I have to touch on the COVID dynamic. All of Luzon, Philippines right now is in lockdown because of record pace of infections in the Philippines. How does that affect your workforce, your operations, your presence there?

Yes. Thank you for the question, Pavel. We have been very proud of the work that all of our operations teams have done across our global factories. And I can tell you that even through today, we've not had a single transmission of COVID within any of our factories, and that really comes through good tight screening of all employees coming in, social distancing that's been hardwired into the factories in every square inch of the factory.

And I think with that, because of the great track record that we have across all of our factories, we have been able to keep open and keep running. And we've, I would say, endured a number of surges. And you can think about some of the surges that have happened even most recently within Malaysia, there was another surge of COVID. Down in Mexico, certainly, there was a big peak, but we've been able to create a very safe working environment for our employees, and the governments recognize that. So we've really seen a little disruption.

Where more of the disruption has happened is around the supply chain side, as we've discussed. Getting containers into the port of Long Beach in California, as an example. Logistics costs, that's really where you see more of the disruption, but our factories are cranking.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen of ROTH Capital Partners.

I had some technical difficulties earlier so I may have missed some of the earlier call. So apologies if I -- I'm asking a question that's already been asked.

That said, first on P series, I was wondering if you could give us a sense for how much of your allocation you expect to take in Q1 and 2? And maybe also what you actually took Q4? I know the commentary earlier, you talked about not really ramping things up until back half.

But with your DG, and is it fair to say that you're taking 0 utility-scale P series? I was wondering if you could just quantify that in any way. If you're typically at that 60 -- if you're able to get 67%, are you -- what percentage of that number, I guess, we can calculate for Q4? But for Q1 and 2, do we see similar levels? And then do you think you'll take your full allocation in the back half?

Okay. Let me answer the front end of that. And then Joanne, maybe you can address some of the more specifics on the numbers.

So let's say first, one of the things that we really like about our strategy within the utility-scale side of things and with the JV, in general, is that we do have the access to the optic upwards to 67%, but we don't have to take it. So there's no take-or-pay element to this. So we can, I would say, pick and choose the kind of business that we want.

And I would say, as we look at it, we believe that as we get into back half. So as the supply chain costs coming out of China start to get more in sync with the rest of world pricing, that's when we think there's upside for us to need to take that full allocation. But I would say, until then, it's going to be predominantly coming out of our DG sales, which I'm sure Joanne will touch on here in a second.

But you'll start to see as the market starts to get back to normal again, right, typically, supply chain costs are going down and the rest of the world market is the more attractive version or the more attractive market for utility scale. Once that gets back in the year, then you'll see us taking more toward our uptick.

But Joanne, maybe you can fill in more color there.

Yes. I'd point the listeners to our supplemental information. We did include some data as it relates to Performance Series. In total for Q4, our P-Series revenue was $77 million. Our P-Series megawatts were $312 million. And to give you a flavor, about half of that went into to DG, a little bit more than half on a revenue basis, and then the balance went into the large scale.

Great. And as a follow-up, do you -- should we expect a similar level of megawatts in Q1 and 2 of this year and then have that ramp up nicely in the back half, assuming the costs come down?

Yes, I think that's right. I think it's the -- as it relates to DG, it will follow a normal seasonal pattern. We're seeing tremendous uptake in Europe for Performance Series panels. So we do see good things on the DG side. Large-scale is lumpier, and it's going to be based off of when we signed these contracts, which is we're not expecting much in the way of large-scale contracts here in Q1 and Q2 based on what we've already signed.

And maybe what I would add to that for just a little bit more color is, especially when you look at the results and the supplemental material, we do break it down by the different regions. As you see, we are seeing continued great growth, especially within DG, and I'll point you to Europe and to EMEA, in particular, where every quarter, even as we went through COVID, we just keep adding volume and volume, and that's a combination of that playbook of IBC from the high end of the premium market and the Performance Series and the kind of the more mainstream premium market. We expect that to continue.

And what the beauty of it, and this is -- I think what gets me excited as I think about the progress that we're going to make over 2021, the percentage of AC modules that we shipped -- I mean we talked about it in the prepared materials, but our AC modules are going to grow as a percentage of revenue outside of the U.S. pretty significantly over the course of '21. We're also then going to be doing a lot of good work with factory utilization. As Peter touched on, with some of the work that we're doing with bringing on the product for the U.S. with P series, that's also going to have a halo effect on the factory cost, which will help us with gross margins as we get to the latter half of the year.

And then we've also got the revitalization of the IBC portfolio, where we're effectively ramping down and obsoleting a 12-year-old product in 2 two, which we're effectively selling at cost today, and we're replacing it with Max 6 along with Max 5 at margins that are dramatically higher. So we're going to leave 2021 in a really good spot. Work to do between now and then, but it's coming along nicely.

Okay. In terms of shifting gears here, in terms of the expansion that you press released, can you talk about -- or can you give us some more color on your financing strategy for the U.S. expansion? What might the -- just give us some color in terms of timing and the magnitude of what that equity investment might be.

So I can give a little bit of color. We're obviously very excited about servicing the U.S. large-scale market. We want to get going. We want to start buying that equipment and getting into the factories as soon as possible so we can hit our goals for 2022. We've had conversations with several bankers. We are considering both debt and equity. It's premature to announce what our exact financing strategy is. We're weighing several things, including what is our existing capital structure will look like and what we wanted to look like going forward to make sure we have a flexible, agile capital structure.

Okay. Great. And one last one for me. I know you guys talked about margins a little bit already, and -- but we're kind of done with Q1. Effectively, now we're kind of in Q2. Would you expect -- and I know you haven't given guidance officially for Q2, but from a seasonality standpoint, there could be that bump up in DG, but it seems like the P-Series utility-scale is probably largely flat.

And so would it be fair to say, barring the DG kind of bump up in seasonality from a margin standpoint, we're probably in a similar spot in Q2 versus Q1? And then revenue, we'll see that little touch up there. Just wanted to see if you might be able to provide a little bit more color on the modeling for Q2 and if you feel comfortable giving some color in Q3, that would be fantastic.

Yes. Maybe I'll give a little bit of color, and Joanne, if you want to fill in more, please do. But I would say, as Joanne touched on earlier, because of the seasonality, with Q1 always traditionally our worst quarter, you would expect that you would see some movement in the positive direction as we go throughout the year. And certainly, that has a helpful effect on the margin side.

I think, especially as we get toward the end of the year, then you'll see some more -- even beyond the seasonality, you'll see things like the AC panels and the ramp up of Max 6 and continued growth in DG, adding more margins. Joanne, do you want to add any more color beyond what I just said?

I think it's fair. I mean, I think as the -- as Jeff mentioned in his prepared remarks, we're about a 40-60 split from seasonality. So a lot of the strength will be in the second half, with Q2 being more the transition in between the -- our low quarter in Q1.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Marshall Carver of Heikkinen Energy.

Yes. So you're increasing CapEx by $80 million this year. Does that incorporate the entirety of your CapEx for the expansion? Or will there be some spillover into 2022?

There'll be some spillover into 2022. The investment on the Performance Series side, it's being -- we would certainly have to build up some working capital as well in 2022, but the bulk of the capital investment will be in 2021.

Okay. And along those lines, if you elect to do the additional expansion in the U.S., how much more expensive or would it be a similar cost to build facilities here in the U.S.? Any...

Peter Aschenbrenner -- yes, sure. Thanks, Marshall. Peter Aschenbrenner, do you want to provide any color on that? Peter has been taking the lead with a lot of our work on the product for the U.S.

Sure. I think that the CapEx, the cost of the tools and installation would be marginally more expensive in the U.S., but not meaningfully so. The tools and all of the automation is similar to what we will be putting in Mexicali. So not a tremendous difference in terms of the CapEx cost.

All right. And on -- in terms of your 1Q OpEx, is that a good quarterly run rate to use? Or would that scale up as you increase volumes in the second half of the year?

So I'll take direction then, Joanne, you can -- let me give a direction. And then, Joanne, you can speak to the specifics.

The way you should think about our OpEx is we have transitioned since the spin-off from being -- from a G&A perspective, of being very U.S.-centric. And we have -- and we'll have completed that by the end of Q1, that transition of the G&A from the U.S. over to Asia. So you're going to see our G&A, as a percentage, go down. We are investing, from an OpEx perspective, though, into sales and R&D and sales just because of the mammoth opportunity that we feel we have out there when we get our salespeople working with channel partners in front of customers, so that will lead to great growth.

The other is on the R&D side, we are investing, in particular, into our Asia R&D. That will work very symbiotically with our Silicon Valley R&D. And the thought there is that, that's going to help us get new product, new technology to ramp and to scale into revenue more quickly than it has historically. So we're excited about both of those investments.

But Joanne can give you the exact color on the numbers, though.

Yes. To give you a flavor, Q1 is definitely a spike. There are some onetime costs relating to consulting, recruiting costs, and then transition costs as it relates to the separation from SunPower. So we do see the things tapering down in Q2, Q3, Q4. And then we expect a more normalized run rate of the low to mid-$30 million. Think of something around $33 million, but that's the range.

And as Jeff mentioned, you -- we would have expected to see a ramp down of OpEx as we migrated to Asia, but that's also being ramped back up to this $33 million level as we invest in R&D and sales. And then just as you model forward, sales will grow faster than R&D.

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo of Baird.

I just wanted to bring up the supply chain and ask you how -- if it's coming up in your talks with customers. So if customers are demanding more visibility around your supply chain and if you have parts of your supply chain in Western China, and then if so, maybe could you distinguish between your residential customers and commercial customers and utility customers?

I'd say with all of our customers, and this has been historically as well as current, there is always that question around our supply chain. And I think one of the reasons where we have such a great brand and reputation is that they know that working with us, and again, this goes back even to be a U.S.-listed company, that they can count on us doing the right thing in terms of working with our supply chain.

I think we've had some questions come up. But I think largely, we have given the confidence that we have in our supply chain and that it works in a very ethical -- and behaves very ethically, I would say we don't get concerns from our customers because of it. And so that's true across residential, light commercial, heavy commercial and all the way for utility scale.

Great. Could you just talk maybe a little bit more on your pipeline? There's kind of a big boost in it and just kind of give us more detail on deal what's driving the pipeline. And that's it for me.

Sure. I'll speak a little bit first, and Peter, maybe you can come in with some more color.

So I'd say, in general, the pipeline for rest of world is very robust, and that's even outside of outside of the U.S. And again, I think as we look at getting a little more normalizing between where our supply chain costs are in China and where the pricing expectations are overseas, you'll start to see us be able to fill more of that pipeline and turn it into bookings and contracts.

I'd say on the U.S. side, we've seen the same. And I think as we've started to go out and speak with some customers about our intentions, we've seen a good flow of opportunity that has us really bullish about the investment there. But Peter, if you wouldn't mind, you can add a little more color.

Sure. I think really, we saw acceleration in the growth of our pipeline starting Q3 last year, just after we formally introduced our P5 latest shingled panel. I'm talking about the large-scale utility power plant segment here. And the product was very well received. I think it's perceived as being a really competitive, high-performance product. And since then, our rest of world pipeline has grown steadily around 20 gigawatts currently.

As Jeff said, we're kind of holding back. So we have visibility into all these projects. We're working with our customers on timing, but we've held back, converting a lot of that into sales until we have better visibility on the supply chain cost. One of the things that our customers like about dealing with Maxeon is that they're -- they believe correctly that we're going to follow through on commitments we make when we sign purchase orders.

I think the more surprising growth has been in the U.S. and in a significantly shorter period of time, 2 quarters and a little bit more, without really aggressive outbound sales efforts, we've seen our pipeline grow to 18 gigawatts. And so the value proposition that we're bringing to the market in the U.S. between the product characteristics and the supply chain that we have in place, the credibility of Maxeon as a supplier, and I think interest in our ability to deliver kind of a known and clean supply chain, all that appears to be working quite well in terms of sales interest. And so we've seen extremely rapid growth, both in terms of early-stage opportunities and continuing to convert those into later-stage opportunities in the U.S.

(Operator Instructions) As there are no further questions, we will now conclude the call. Thank you all again. You may now disconnect.