馬斯科 (MAS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Masco Corporation's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator for today's call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到 Masco Corporation 2023 年第一季度電話會議。我叫米歇爾，我將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄製以供重播。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to David Chaika, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 David Chaika。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Michelle, and good morning. Welcome to Masco Corporation's 2023 First Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Keith Allman, President and CEO of Masco; and John Sznewajs, Masco's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，米歇爾，早上好。歡迎來到 Masco Corporation 的 2023 年第一季度電話會議。今天和我在一起的有 Masco 總裁兼首席執行官 Keith Allman； Masco 的副總裁兼首席財務官 John Sznewajs。

Our first quarter earnings release and the presentation slides are available on our website under Investor Relations. Following our remarks, we will open the call for analyst questions. Please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up. If we can't take your question now, please call me directly at (313) 792-5500.

我們的第一季度收益發布和演示幻燈片可在我們網站的投資者關係下獲取。在我們發表評論之後，我們將開始徵集分析師問題。請將自己限制在一個問題和一個跟進中。如果我們現在不能回答您的問題，請直接致電 (313) 792-5500 與我聯繫。

Our statements today will include our views about our future performance, which constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. We've described these risks and uncertainties in our risk factors and other disclosures in our Form 10-K and our Form 10-Q that we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our statements will also include non-GAAP financial metrics. Our references to operating profit and earnings per share will be as adjusted, unless otherwise noted. We reconcile these adjusted metrics to GAAP in our earnings release and presentation slides, which are available on our website under Investor Relations.

我們今天的聲明將包括我們對未來業績的看法，構成前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中的風險因素和其他披露中描述了這些風險和不確定性。我們的報表還將包括非 GAAP 財務指標。除非另有說明，否則我們對營業利潤和每股收益的參考將進行調整。我們在收益發布和演示幻燈片中將這些調整後的指標與 GAAP 進行了核對，這些幻燈片可在我們網站的投資者關係下獲取。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Keith.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給基思。

Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Please turn to Slide 5.

謝謝你，戴夫。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。請轉到幻燈片 5。

I'm pleased with the start of our year and want to thank our employees and supplier partners for executing well in an environment that remains challenging. We are focused on winning in the recovery by continuing to engage with our customers, launch new products and expand the breadth of our brands. At the same time, managing our costs in these uncertain economic times.

我對今年的開始感到滿意，並感謝我們的員工和供應商合作夥伴在充滿挑戰的環境中表現出色。我們專注於通過繼續與客戶互動、推出新產品和擴大品牌範圍來贏得複蘇。同時，在這些不確定的經濟時期管理我們的成本。

In this period of volatile macroeconomics and slowing demand, our top line decreased 10% in the first quarter against a strong 12% comp. Volume was down 14%, partially offset by pricing actions of 6%. While operating profit declined in the quarter, primarily due to the lower volume, higher input costs and continued investments for future growth, our strong execution delivered a decremental margin of approximately 20%. Our earnings per share for the quarter was $0.87.

在這段宏觀經濟動盪和需求放緩的時期，我們的收入在第一季度下降了 10%，而 comp 為 12%。銷量下降 14%，部分被 6% 的定價行為所抵消。雖然本季度的營業利潤有所下降，這主要是由於銷量下降、投入成本上升以及對未來增長的持續投資，但我們強有力的執行力使利潤率下降了約 20%。我們本季度的每股收益為 0.87 美元。

Turning to our segments. Plumbing sales declined 8% in local currency, with North American and International Plumbing declining 10% and 3%, respectively. Both our North American and International Plumbing businesses continue to further strengthen their industry-leading brands, customer service and new product development. In North American plumbing, Delta Faucet launched new products at the Kitchen and Bath Industry Show, such as the Delta ShowerSense Digital Shower and the Delta Steam Shower, each offering consumers a more customizable shower experience. In our Spa business, Watkins Wellness launched a complete redesign of its top-selling HotSprings Highlife offering. These spas' have exciting new features to enhance the consumer experience that we believe will help Watkins outperform the competition even in a challenging market.

轉向我們的細分市場。以當地貨幣計算，管道銷售額下降了 8%，其中北美和國際管道分別下降了 10% 和 3%。我們的北美和國際管道業務都在繼續進一步加強其行業領先的品牌、客戶服務和新產品開發。北美水暖領域，Delta Faucet在廚衛展上推出了Delta ShowerSense Digital Shower和Delta Steam Shower等新品，為消費者帶來更個性化的淋浴體驗。在我們的水療業務中，Watkins Wellness 對其最暢銷的 HotSprings Highlife 產品進行了全面重新設計。這些水療中心具有令人興奮的新功能，可提升消費者體驗，我們相信這將幫助 Watkins 即使在充滿挑戰的市場中也能勝過競爭對手。

In our International Plumbing business, Hansgrohe launched new products at ISH, the world's leading plumbing trade show, including a new product portfolio of sanitary ceramics and bathroom furniture paired with their premium faucets and showers. Additionally, they introduced the next generation of their in-wall iBox [valve] which allows installers to connect any type of plumbing fixture without the need for major construction work. Hansgrohe also displayed their focus on the environment with a concept study of a bathroom that consumes 90% less water and energy, highlighting their commitment to the development of innovative and sustainable products.

在我們的國際管道業務中，漢斯格雅在世界領先的管道貿易展 ISH 上推出了新產品，包括衛生陶瓷和浴室家具的新產品組合，以及優質水龍頭和花灑。此外，他們還推出了下一代入牆式 iBox [閥門]，安裝人員無需進行重大施工即可連接任何類型的衛生潔具。漢斯格雅還展示了他們對環境的關注，對浴室的用水和能源消耗減少了 90% 的概念研究，突顯了他們對開發創新和可持續產品的承諾。

With our strong brands, geographic diversity and innovative products, our Plumbing segment is well positioned to continue to gain global market share.

憑藉我們強大的品牌、地域多樣性和創新產品，我們的管道部門處於有利地位，可以繼續獲得全球市場份額。

Turning to our Decorative Architectural segment. Sales declined 10% in the quarter against a strong 17% comp. PRO paint declined mid-single digits against a tremendous comp of over 50% in the quarter of 2022. And DIY paint sales declined high single digits. In the quarter, Behr continued to launch new products and services and received recognition for their industry-leading customer satisfaction.

轉向我們的裝飾建築部分。本季度銷售額下降了 10%，而 17% 的強勁增長。 PRO 塗料在 2022 年第四季度下降了中等個位數，而銷售額下降了 50% 以上。DIY 塗料銷售額下降了高個位數。本季度，Behr 繼續推出新產品和服務，並因其行業領先的客戶滿意度而獲得認可。

We gained shelf space with our adjacent paint categories such as Aerosols, interior stains, Caulk and Sealants and Applicators as these programs expanded into additional stores. We launched BEHR DYNASTY exterior for the summer painting season, expanding the lineup of our #1 rated Dynasty paint line. And we continue to invest in people and capabilities to better serve the PRO [Painter] by adding additional sales reps, increasing job site delivery capabilities and expanding our loyalty programs.

隨著這些項目擴展到更多商店，我們獲得了相鄰塗料類別的貨架空間，例如氣溶膠、室內著色劑、填縫劑和密封劑以及塗抹器。我們在夏季繪畫季推出了 BEHR DYNASTY 外觀，擴大了我們排名第一的 Dynasty 油漆系列的陣容。我們繼續投資於人員和能力，通過增加額外的銷售代表、提高工作現場交付能力和擴大我們的忠誠度計劃來更好地為 PRO [Painter] 服務。

Lastly, in a recent third-party paint satisfaction study, Behr earned the #1 rating in the exterior paint category and the #2 rating in interior paint, demonstrating the strength of the Behr brand, quality of our products and our exceptional service performance.

最後，在最近的第三方油漆滿意度研究中，Behr 在外牆塗料類別中獲得第一名，在室內塗料類別中獲得第二名，這證明了 Behr 品牌的實力、我們產品的質量和我們卓越的服務性能。

Turning to capital allocation. With our strong free cash flow and balance sheet, we returned $121 million to the shareholders through dividends and share repurchases as we bought back 1.1 million shares for $56 million in the quarter.

轉向資本配置。憑藉我們強勁的自由現金流和資產負債表，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 1.21 億美元，因為我們在本季度以 5600 萬美元回購了 110 萬股股票。

Now turning to our outlook for the remainder of 2023. While we delivered solid first quarter results, we remain cautious and continue to expect softening demand trends in 2023 as our markets adjust to increasing interest rates, persistent inflation and tighter consumer spending. In this uncertain environment, we are focused on adjusting our costs and minimizing the impact on margins from lower volumes. We have enacted select hiring freezes and have reduced staffing with headcount down approximately 5% year-over-year. We announced the closure of 1 of our plumbing manufacturing facilities, and we have delayed the opening of our new spa plant as we continue to balance investing to win in the recovery with cost reductions.

現在轉向我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。雖然我們在第一季度取得了穩健的業績，但我們仍持謹慎態度，並繼續預計 2023 年需求趨勢將趨於疲軟，因為我們的市場正在適應利率上升、持續通脹和消費者支出趨緊的情況。在這種不確定的環境中，我們專注於調整成本並儘量減少銷量下降對利潤率的影響。我們已經實施了部分招聘凍結，並減少了員工人數，同比減少約 5%。我們宣布關閉我們的 1 個管道製造設施，並且我們推遲了新 spa 工廠的開放，因為我們繼續平衡投資以贏得複蘇與降低成本。

With the actions we are taking to address this dynamic environment, our continued strong capital deployment and the uncertain macroeconomics, we continue to anticipate earnings per share for 2023 to be in the range of $3.10 to $3.40 per share.

憑藉我們為應對這一動態環境而採取的行動、我們持續強勁的資本部署和不確定的宏觀經濟，我們繼續預計 2023 年的每股收益將在每股 3.10 美元至 3.40 美元之間。

While near-term market conditions remain challenging, we believe the long-term fundamentals of our repair and remodel markets are strong. Those cyclical factors such as home price appreciation and existing home turnover will likely remain a headwind for 2023. We believe structural factors, such as consumers staying in their homes longer, the age of housing stock and high home equity levels will drive increased repair and remodel activity in the years to follow.

雖然近期市場狀況仍然充滿挑戰，但我們相信我們的維修和改造市場的長期基本面是強勁的。房價上漲和現房周轉率等周期性因素可能在 2023 年仍然是不利因素。我們認為結構性因素，例如消費者在家中停留的時間更長、住房存量的年齡和高房屋淨值水平將推動維修和改造的增加隨後幾年的活動。

I'd like to remind you of the strength of Masco and the power of our focused business model. Our portfolio of low-ticket repair and remodel products with market-leading brands and product in geographic diversification provides growth and stability through cycles. We arguably have the strongest portfolio of brands in the building products industry. With Delta and Hansgrohe in the Plumbing industry, and Behr and KILZ in paints and fibers. Our products are found everywhere consumers want to shop. We are able to leverage consumer and customer insights across all channels. This drives powerful innovation as evidenced by our 25% vitality index and leading customer satisfaction as evidenced by numerous customer satisfaction and service awards.

我想提醒您 Masco 的實力和我們專注的商業模式的力量。我們的低價維修和改造產品組合具有市場領先的品牌和地域多元化的產品，可通過週期提供增長和穩定性。我們可以說擁有建築產品行業最強大的品牌組合。 Delta 和 Hansgrohe 從事管道行業，Behr 和 KILZ 從事油漆和纖維行業。我們的產品遍布消費者想要購物的任何地方。我們能夠跨所有渠道利用消費者和客戶的洞察力。這推動了強大的創新，我們 25% 的活力指數證明了這一點，而領先的客戶滿意度也得到了無數客戶滿意度和服務獎項的證明。

And through the execution of our Masco operating system, we look to drive operating margin expansion through cost productivity and volume leverage. As demonstrated in the first quarter, we will continue to invest in our brands, capabilities and people to outperform the competition in both the near and long term. With favorable fundamentals for our portfolio of low-ticket repair and remodel-oriented products and our continued focus on executing our growth strategy, together with our strong free cash flow and capital deployment, we are positioned to drive shareholder value creation for the long term.

通過執行我們的 Masco 操作系統，我們希望通過成本生產率和產量槓桿來推動營業利潤率的增長。正如第一季度所展示的那樣，我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌、能力和人才，以在短期和長期內超越競爭對手。憑藉我們的低價維修和改造產品組合的良好基本面，以及我們對執行增長戰略的持續關注，以及我們強大的自由現金流和資本配置，我們有能力長期推動股東價值創造。

Before I turn the call over to John, I wanted to take a moment to thank him for his over 27 years of service to Masco. He has been an invaluable partner, not only to me but the entire organization, our Board and the investment community, during his tenure with the company. He will be missed and we wish John all the best in his future endeavors. John will be leaving us at the end of May, and we are in the process of selecting his successor. We have strong internal candidates and have engaged a search firm to assist in conducting a thorough external search as well.

在我將電話轉給 John 之前，我想花點時間感謝他為 Masco 服務超過 27 年。在他任職公司期間，他不僅對我，而且對整個組織、我們的董事會和投資界都是寶貴的合作夥伴。我們會想念他，我們希望約翰在未來的努力中一切順利。約翰將於 5 月底離開我們，我們正在挑選他的繼任者。我們擁有強大的內部候選人，並聘請了一家獵頭公司來協助進行徹底的外部獵頭。

While we complete this process, Dave Chaika, Masco's Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations, has been appointed as our Interim CFO. Dave has over 20 years' experience with the company, starting in our M&A department and progressively adding additional responsibilities, including treasury, risk management, financial planning and analysis and Investor Relations. Additionally, prior to Masco, Dave was a Vice President in the commercial banking industry and an officer of U.S. Navy.

在我們完成這一過程的同時，Masco 副總裁兼財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 Dave Chaika 已被任命為我們的臨時首席財務官。 Dave 在公司擁有超過 20 年的經驗，從我們的併購部門開始，逐步增加額外的職責，包括財務、風險管理、財務規劃和分析以及投資者關係。此外，在 Masco 之前，Dave 是商業銀行業的副總裁和美國海軍的一名軍官。

Now for the final time, I'll turn the call over to John to go over our first quarter results and 2023 outlook in more detail. John?

現在最後一次，我將把電話轉給約翰，讓他更詳細地回顧我們第一季度的業績和 2023 年的展望。約翰？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. As Dave mentioned, my comments today will focus on adjusted performance, excluding the impact of rationalization and other one-time items. Turning to slide 7. Sales in the quarter decreased 10%, and excluding currency, decreased 9%. Lower volume has decreased sales by 14%, partially offset by net selling prices of 6%.

謝謝你，基思，大家早上好。正如 Dave 提到的，我今天的評論將集中在調整後的業績上，不包括合理化和其他一次性項目的影響。轉到幻燈片 7。本季度銷售額下降 10%，不包括貨幣，下降 9%。較低的銷量使銷售額下降了 14%，部分被 6% 的淨售價所抵消。

North American sales decreased 10% in the local currency, international sales decreased 3%. Despite lower volume, our strong execution in the quarter resulted in our gross margin expanding 150 basis points to 33.6%. This is the first time in 7 quarters that we've expanded gross margins as we are now recovering the significant cost inflation we have absorbed over the past 2 years.

以當地貨幣計算，北美銷售額下降 10%，國際銷售額下降 3%。儘管銷量較低，但我們在本季度的強勁執行力使我們的毛利率擴大了 150 個基點，達到 33.6%。這是 7 個季度以來我們首次擴大毛利率，因為我們現在正在恢復過去 2 年吸收的顯著成本通脹。

Our SG&A as a percentage of sales was 17.8% due to higher brand and marketing investments such as trade shows and sales meetings to support our growth strategy of investing in our brands, service and innovation. Operating profit in the first quarter was $312 million, and operating margin was 15.8%. Operating profit was impacted by lower volumes, higher input costs and growth investments partially offset by higher net selling prices. Lastly, our EPS in the quarter was $0.87.

我們的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比為 17.8%，這是由於更高的品牌和營銷投資，例如貿易展覽和銷售會議，以支持我們投資品牌、服務和創新的增長戰略。第一季度營業利潤為 3.12 億美元，營業利潤率為 15.8%。營業利潤受到銷量下降、投入成本上升和增長投資的影響，部分被較高的淨售價所抵消。最後，我們本季度的每股收益為 0.87 美元。

Turning to Slide 8. Plumbing sales in the quarter decreased 10% against the 9% [comp], and excluding currency, decreased 8%. Lower volume decreased sales by 12% partially offset by net selling prices, which increased sales by 5%. North American plumbing sales decreased 10% in local currency. This was driven by continued lower demand that we started to experience in the third quarter of last year. This lower demand was fairly broad-based across product categories and channels.

轉到幻燈片 8。本季度的管道銷售額下降了 10%，相對於 9% [comp]，不包括貨幣，下降了 8%。較低的銷量減少了 12% 的銷售額，部分被淨售價所抵消，淨售價增加了 5%。以當地貨幣計算，北美管道銷售額下降了 10%。這是由於我們在去年第三季度開始經歷的需求持續下降所推動的。這種較低的需求在產品類別和渠道中具有相當廣泛的基礎。

Our Spa business which is approximately 15% of the segment declined over 20% that has now worked through the significant backlog generated from the spike in demand for its products. International plumbing sales decreased 3% in local currency, against an 18% comp as demand softened in many European markets and China. For plumbing overall, changes in channel inventory positions during the quarter did not significantly impact our results.

我們的水療業務約佔該細分市場的 15%，下降了 20% 以上，現在已經解決了對其產品需求激增產生的大量積壓問題。由於許多歐洲市場和中國的需求疲軟，國際管道銷售額以當地貨幣計算下降了 3%，而同期為 18%。對於整體管道而言，本季度渠道庫存狀況的變化並未對我們的業績產生重大影響。

Segment operating profit in the first quarter was $202 million, with an operating margin of 16.5%. Operating profit was impacted by lower volumes, higher brand and marketing investments, partially offset by higher net selling prices. This resulted in a decremental margin of 19%. While input costs have declined from their peak levels, particularly container costs, overall input costs remain elevated.

第一季度的部門營業利潤為 2.02 億美元，營業利潤率為 16.5%。營業利潤受到銷量下降、品牌和營銷投資增加的影響，但部分被較高的淨售價所抵消。這導致了 19% 的遞減利潤率。雖然投入成本已從峰值水平下降，尤其是集裝箱成本，但總體投入成本仍處於高位。

Turning to Slide 9. Decorative Architectural sales decreased 10% for the first quarter against a strong 17% comp. Paint sales declined high single digits with PRO paint sales decreasing mid-single digits against a robust comp of over 50% in the first quarter of 2022. DIY paint sales declining high single digits. Keith mentioned, we gained shelf space, their adjacent product offerings such as Aerosols, interior stains, Caulks and Sealants and Applicators. For PRO paint, we are investing along with our partner and our joint capabilities to continue to grow share in this large and growing market.

轉到幻燈片 9。裝飾建築銷售額在第一季度下降了 10%，而同期銷售額為 17%。塗料銷售額下降了高個位數，而 PRO 塗料銷售額下降了中等個位數，而 2022 年第一季度的強勁銷售額超過 50%。DIY 塗料銷售額下降了高個位數。 Keith 提到，我們獲得了貨架空間，他們的相鄰產品供應，如氣溶膠、室內污漬、填縫劑和密封劑以及塗抹器。對於 PRO 塗料，我們正在與我們的合作夥伴和我們的聯合能力一起投資，以繼續擴大在這個不斷增長的龐大市場中的份額。

Lastly, our operating profit was $133 million, operating margin was 17.6%. Operating profit was impacted by lower volumes and higher input costs, partially offset by higher net selling prices. While we have seen modest sequential relief in [certain paint] input costs, other input costs continue to experience upward pressure such as TiO2, labor and transportation costs the overall [input basket remains elevated].

最後，我們的營業利潤為 1.33 億美元，營業利潤率為 17.6%。營業利潤受到銷量下降和投入成本上升的影響，但部分被較高的淨售價所抵消。雖然我們看到 [某些塗料] 投入成本略有連續緩解，但其他投入成本繼續承受上行壓力，例如 TiO2、勞動力和運輸成本，總體 [投入籃子仍然高企]。

Turning to Slide 10. Our balance sheet remains strong with net debt to EBITDA at 2.2x at the end of the quarter. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion of balance sheet liquidity. Working capital as a percent of sales declined 100 basis points to 19.1% in a net 13 day reduction. With an improvement in working capital, net cash from operating activities was $33 million, an improvement of $260 million compared to prior year. With expected lower volumes and less supply chain disruptions this year, we anticipate working capital as a percent of sales to continue to improve to be approximately 16.5% at year-end.

轉到幻燈片 10。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，本季度末淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 2.2 倍。本季度末，我們的資產負債表流動性約為 13 億美元。營運資金佔銷售額的百分比在 13 天的淨下降中下降了 100 個基點至 19.1%。隨著營運資金的改善，經營活動產生的現金淨額為 3300 萬美元，比上年增加 2.6 億美元。由於預計今年銷量下降和供應鏈中斷較少，我們預計營運資金佔銷售額的百分比將在年底繼續提高至約 16.5%。

During the first quarter, we repurchased 1.1 million shares for $56 million, returned $65 million to shareholders through dividends. As we discussed on our fourth quarter call, we anticipate deploying approximately $500 million towards share repurchases or acquisitions for the full year, with activity likely more weighted to the second half of the year. Lastly, we have retired the $200 million remaining on our term loan that matures today by borrowing on our revolver. We will likely repay outstanding borrowings [by our] revolver during the third quarter.

第一季度，我們以 5600 萬美元回購了 110 萬股股票，通過股息向股東返還了 6500 萬美元。正如我們在第四季度電話會議上討論的那樣，我們預計全年將部署約 5 億美元用於股票回購或收購，活動可能更多地集中在今年下半年。最後，我們通過循環借貸償還了今天到期的定期貸款中剩餘的 2 億美元。我們可能會在第三季度 [通過我們的] 循環償還未償還的借款。

Now let's turn to Slide 11 and review our outlook for the year. We had a better than planned start to the year. However, we believe the delayed impact of rising rates tighter credit and lower consumer spending in the face of persistent inflation have yet to fully play out in the economy. With these uncertain times as the backdrop, we are maintaining our full year outlook at this time.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 11 並回顧我們今年的展望。我們今年的開局好於計劃。然而，我們認為，面對持續的通脹，利率上升、信貸緊縮和消費者支出減少的延遲影響尚未在經濟中完全顯現。在這些不確定時期的背景下，我們目前維持全年展望。

For Masco overall, we are planning for volumes to be down in the low double-digit range, partially offset by low single-digit pricing. Based on this assumption, we expect 2023 sales to decline approximately 10% with operating margins of approximately 15%. At this time, currency is projected to have a minimal impact on our 2023 results.

對於 Masco 整體而言，我們計劃將銷量下降到兩位數的低水平，部分被低個位數的定價所抵消。基於這一假設，我們預計 2023 年銷售額將下降約 10%，營業利潤率約為 15%。目前，預計貨幣對我們 2023 年業績的影響微乎其微。

Our SG&A as a percentage of sales trended below normal levels during the pandemic. However, as we continue to invest in our business for future growth, while maintaining cost discipline, we expect this percentage to increase back to a more normalized pre-pandemic level to be around 17.5% for 2023. As always, we will take appropriate actions to address our cost as the year develops based on market conditions.

在大流行期間，我們的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比低於正常水平。然而，隨著我們繼續投資於我們的業務以實現未來增長，同時保持成本紀律，我們預計這一百分比將在 2023 年恢復到更正常的大流行前水平，即 17.5% 左右。我們將一如既往地採取適當的行動根據市場情況，隨著年度的發展解決我們的成本問題。

In our Plumbing segment, we expect 2023 sales to decline in the range of 10% to 14%. We anticipate the full year Plumbing margins will be roughly flat with 2022 segment margins at approximately 16%. Lower volumes and plant setup costs will impact margins with favorable selling price increases partially offsetting these headwinds.

在我們的管道部門，我們預計 2023 年的銷售額將下降 10% 至 14%。我們預計全年管道利潤率將大致持平，2022 年分部利潤率約為 16%。較低的產量和工廠設置成本將影響利潤率，而有利的銷售價格上漲部分抵消了這些不利因素。

In our Decorative Architectural segment, we expect 2023 sales to decline in the range of 5% to 10%. Looking specifically at paint for 2023, we currently anticipate our DIY paint to decrease high single digits and our PRO paint business to decrease mid-single digits is recycled over 25% PRO paint growth in 2022. We anticipate full year decorative architectural margin to be approximately 16%. This is largely due to our significant pricing actions in this segment and typically only recover the dollar amount of inflation. As a result, all else equal, operating profit dollars remain neutral from cost recovery pricing actions, the results in margin compression.

在我們的裝飾建築部門，我們預計 2023 年的銷售額將下降 5% 至 10%。特別關注 2023 年的塗料，我們目前預計我們的 DIY 塗料將減少高個位數，而我們的 PRO 塗料業務將減少中個位數，到 2022 年，PRO 塗料的回收量將增長 25% 以上。我們預計全年裝飾建築利潤率約為16%。這主要是由於我們在這一領域的重大定價行動，通常只能恢復美元數額的通貨膨脹。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，營業利潤美元與成本回收定價行動保持中立，導致利潤率壓縮。

We are also planning an increased investment in people and capabilities in 2023 to drive future growth in our PRO paint business to have a greater impact in the coming quarters.

我們還計劃在 2023 年增加對人員和能力的投資，以推動我們 PRO 塗料業務的未來增長，從而在未來幾個季度產生更大的影響。

Finally, as Keith mentioned earlier, our 2023 EPS estimate remains $3.10 to $3.40. This assumes a 226 million average diluted share count for the year and a 24% effective tax rate. Additional modeling assumptions for 2023 can be found on Slide 14 in our earnings deck.

最後，正如 Keith 之前提到的，我們對 2023 年每股收益的估計仍為 3.10 美元至 3.40 美元。這假設全年平均稀釋後的股票數量為 2.26 億股，有效稅率為 24%。 2023 年的其他建模假設可以在我們收益平台的幻燈片 14 中找到。

Before I conclude, I want to take a moment to thank Keith for his 10 years of partnership, our Board and the entire Masco team for everything over the last 27 years. Leaving Masco is bitter sweet for me. I look forward to keeping in touch with my friends and colleagues here and watching the company's continued growth and success. Dave is a very capable executive. We have worked together for more than 20 years, and I know the finance team won't miss a beat under a steady leadership in his new role as interim CFO. And I'm proud of everything that we have accomplished together at Masco and wish the team the best of luck in the future.

在結束之前，我想花點時間感謝 Keith 10 年的合作夥伴關係、我們的董事會和整個 Masco 團隊在過去 27 年裡所做的一切。離開馬斯科對我來說是苦樂參半。我期待與這裡的朋友和同事保持聯繫，並見證公司的持續發展和成功。戴夫是一位非常能幹的主管。我們已經合作了 20 多年，我知道在他作為臨時首席財務官的新角色的穩健領導下，財務團隊不會錯過任何機會。我為我們在 Masco 共同完成的一切感到自豪，並祝愿團隊在未來好運。

With that, I'd like to open the call for Q&A. Operator?

有了這個，我想打開問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from Matthew Bouley at Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

I just want to pass along my best wishes to John. So just on the overall margin outlook, given your first quarter margins came in ahead of the full year guide, previously, you guys had spoken to sequential margin improvement across the business. And so now the guide mathematically implies lower margins for the balance of the year. So my question is, is that just conservatism? Is there still a path to sequential margin improvement in either segment? Or is there something out there that could still take margins lower?

我只想向約翰轉達我最良好的祝愿。因此，就整體利潤率前景而言，鑑於你們第一季度的利潤率高於全年指南，之前你們曾談到整個業務的連續利潤率改善。因此，現在該指南在數學上意味著今年剩餘時間的利潤率較低。所以我的問題是，這只是保守主義嗎？在這兩個細分市場中是否仍有途徑實現連續利潤率改善？還是有什麼東西仍然可以降低利潤率？

Hey Matt, Matthew -- this is Keith. I'll start off and John, maybe you could add some detail. I think when we -- when you think about margin and our performance vis-a-vis, the outlook, it's really driven by volume. And as we've talked in the past, volume -- incremental volumes, decremental volumes are in around that 30%, 30% to 35% range. So that is a fundamental driver of what's happening to our margins.

嗨，馬特，馬修——我是基思。我先開始了，約翰，也許你可以添加一些細節。我認為當我們 - 當你考慮利潤率和我們相對於前景的表現時，它實際上是由數量驅動的。正如我們過去所說的那樣，成交量——增量成交量，遞減成交量在 30%、30% 到 35% 左右。因此，這是我們利潤率發生變化的根本驅動因素。

Additionally, as I talked in my prepared remarks, we endeavor to strike a balance here of managing our costs in these uncertain times. And we've demonstrated our ability to do that thus far, and we'll continue to do that. But it's also important that we continue to invest in our business. So you'll see continued investments in marketing and advertising. For example, this quarter, we had 2 significant trade shows, which when added up, our material investments for us that haven't happened in many years. We're getting together more as an organization in terms of sales meetings to continue to drive. So there's additional investments on top of the headwind that we plan on experiencing from lower volumes.

此外，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，在這些不確定的時期，我們努力在管理成本方面取得平衡。到目前為止，我們已經展示了我們做到這一點的能力，我們將繼續這樣做。但我們繼續投資於我們的業務也很重要。所以你會看到在營銷和廣告方面的持續投資。例如，本季度，我們舉辦了 2 場重要的貿易展，加起來就是我們多年未發生的物質投資。我們在銷售會議方面作為一個組織聚集在一起，以繼續推動。因此，除了我們計劃從較低的交易量中經歷的逆風之外，還有額外的投資。

And then there's pricing actions that counter that. And we'll take -- we have taken pricing, and we'll see those anniversary here mainly in the second quarter and then a little bit into the third quarter. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of an idea of what's driving our thoughts on the margins as we look to the year.

然後是反其道而行之的定價行為。我們會採取 - 我們已經採取了定價，我們將主要在第二季度和第三季度看到這些週年紀念日。因此，希望這能讓您了解是什麼在我們展望這一年時推動我們對利潤率的想法。

And Matt, maybe just add a little bit of color -- further color to Keith's comments. Our prior statement was really that we would see sequential year-over-year improvement every quarter as we go through the year. And so -- and what we intended to convey was that Q1 of this year would be better than Q1 of last year, et cetera, et cetera, as the year rolled out. And so as we look at our margins going forward, the back half of the year margins get a little -- the comps get a little bit easier because we -- margins decline, particularly in the fourth quarter. And so we think we can get there for each of the subsequent quarters from here. But yes, it will be lower than where we're at here in the Q1.

Matt，也許只是添加一點色彩——為Keith 的評論添加更多色彩。我們之前的聲明實際上是，隨著我們度過這一年，我們每個季度都會看到連續的同比改善。因此 - 我們打算傳達的是，隨著今年的推出，今年的第一季度會比去年的第一季度好，等等，等等。因此，當我們展望未來的利潤率時，今年下半年的利潤率有所下降——因為我們——利潤率下降了，尤其是在第四季度。因此，我們認為我們可以從這里為後續的每個季度實現目標。但是，是的，它將低於我們在第一季度的水平。

Got you. Okay. Yes. So second question, you mentioned in Decorative that there were some shelf space wins in your adjacent categories. I'm just curious if you can kind of put a little finer detail on that. Any color around kind of load in? Or was there a margin impact from that in the Decorative business?

明白了好的。是的。那麼第二個問題，你在裝飾品中提到在你的相鄰類別中有一些貨架空間獲勝。我只是想知道您是否可以提供更詳細的信息。負載周圍有任何顏色嗎？或者對裝飾業務的利潤率有影響嗎？

Well, I'm going to get into the specifics on the [load end of] The margin on [knees] is very good. I think it's a good business for us. We've been working with our partner, the Home Depot, and Caulks and Sealants, Applicators, Stains, some of the products that we've talked about and as evidenced by the fact that we're rolling it out to additional stores, it's working. And it's really attributed to the Behr brand and the team out at Behr and their execution. So good business for us. It's building. Clearly, the main portion of our business, obviously, is in the liquids. But this is good, and it's been a strategic effort for the team, and it's successful.

好吧，我將詳細介紹 [load end of] [knees] 的餘量非常好。我認為這對我們來說是一件好事。我們一直在與我們的合作夥伴 Home Depot、填縫劑和密封劑、塗抹器、染色劑以及我們討論過的一些產品合作，並且我們正在將其推廣到更多商店這一事實證明了這一點在職的。這真的歸功於 Behr 品牌和 Behr 團隊以及他們的執行力。對我們來說太好了。正在建設中。顯然，我們業務的主要部分顯然是液體。但這很好，這對團隊來說是一項戰略努力，而且很成功。

Your next question will come from John Lovallo at UBS.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

Maybe just dovetailing off of Matt's question there. I mean 15.8% margin in the first quarter, 2Q and 3Q are generally well above the first quarter and the full year outlook is 15%. I mean I know we're only through the first quarter, but maybe if you could help us frame the sort of the upside and downside case there. I mean, let's say that demand stays relatively flat from where it is today, I mean, where could those margins actually shake out?

也許只是與 Matt 的問題相吻合。我的意思是第一季度 15.8% 的利潤率，第二季度和第三季度普遍遠高於第一季度，全年展望為 15%。我的意思是我知道我們才剛剛度過第一季度，但也許你能幫助我們構建那種有利和不利的情況。我的意思是，假設需求與今天相比保持相對平穩，我的意思是，這些利潤率實際上會在哪里波動？

Yes, John, maybe I'll start and Keith feel free to chime in. So John, as kind of Keith alluded to answering Matt's question, we did deliver some strong performance in Q1 and obviously the 6% price helped and Keith also just referenced, a lot of that pricing benefit starts to subside as you go through the year. I mean, we also had some benefit in Q2 because that's been a lot of the pricing got initiated, but that benefit will really subside pretty significantly as you go into the back half of the year. So with that benefit going away, that will have some impact on margins.

是的，約翰，也許我會開始，基思隨時插話。所以約翰，就像基思在回答馬特的問題時提到的那樣，我們在第一季度確實取得了一些強勁的表現，顯然 6% 的價格有所幫助，基思也剛剛提到，隨著這一年的過去，很多定價優勢開始消退。我的意思是，我們在第二季度也有一些好處，因為已經啟動了很多定價，但隨著你進入今年下半年，這種好處將真正顯著消退。因此，隨著這種好處的消失，這將對利潤率產生一些影響。

As Keith also mentioned, we do expect volumes to be pressured this year. If you think about the strong comps we're up against here in the first half of the year, volumes were softer in the back half of the year last year. So we continue to expect that down. So with overall, our 10% guide to the top line being down, I think that weighs on it.

正如 Keith 還提到的，我們確實預計今年的銷量會受到壓力。如果你想想我們在今年上半年在這裡遇到的強大競爭，那麼去年下半年的銷量就比較疲軟。所以我們繼續期望它下降。因此，總的來說，我們對頂線的 10% 指南下降了，我認為這會對其產生影響。

And then we've got some additional investments that we're making. Keith mentioned the fact that we're continuing to invest in programs and initiatives across the entire portfolio, but very specifically in the PRO paint initiative. We kind of -- the last kind of headwind we've got and we've got a couple of facilities that are starting up in the back half of the year that will create some expense headwind to us. So that -- all those things are kind of pressuring margins.

然後我們正在進行一些額外的投資。 Keith 提到我們將繼續投資於整個產品組合的計劃和計劃，但特別是在 PRO 油漆計劃中。我們有點——我們遇到的最後一種逆風，我們有幾個設施將在今年下半年啟動，這將給我們帶來一些開支逆風。所以——所有這些都對利潤率構成壓力。

Now to your question, if volumes remain flat for me or could there be some upside to that, yes, there could be. I expect there to be. If volumes remain flat, but that's not the model that we're forecasting at this point. Keith, I don't know if there's any...

現在回答你的問題，如果銷量對我來說持平，或者會有一些好處，是的，可能會有。我希望會有。如果銷量保持平穩，但這不是我們目前預測的模型。基思，我不知道有沒有...

Just [create] a little bit. I think the declining volume is the pressure on the margins where we could see some potential upside if we didn't see that volume decline. We had nice execution in the quarter. Our drop-down or decrementals is typically in that 30% range. And we've done a pretty good job of that in Q1. And if we can continue to do that, that would be some potential upside.

只是[創造]一點點。我認為銷量下降是對利潤率的壓力，如果我們沒有看到銷量下降，我們可能會看到一些潛在的上行空間。我們在本季度執行得很好。我們的下拉或遞減通常在 30% 的範圍內。我們在第一季度做得很好。如果我們能繼續這樣做，那將是一些潛在的好處。

There's always an opportunity for commodity costs to come down, really when we look at where they were in this first quarter, we haven't seen that deflation. They remain elevated. So we think we have our guidance in the right place given the uncertainty in the macro economics, and we're going to continue to invest in our brands while driving and watching -- driving productivity and watching our costs.

大宗商品成本總是有下降的機會，真的，當我們看看他們在第一季度的位置時，我們還沒有看到通貨緊縮。他們保持高位。因此，鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們認為我們的指導是正確的，我們將在推動和觀察的同時繼續投資於我們的品牌——提高生產力並觀察我們的成本。

Okay. That's helpful, guys. And then maybe more of a high-level strategy question here. If we think about the PRO paint effort at Home Depot. I mean, what do you see as sort of the biggest challenges to growth there? Is it -- is there a sufficient dedicated sales force? Are there enough specialty products needed to complete bigger jobs? How -- where do we get -- how do we get to the point where it's very competitive with Sherwin Or PPG. I mean what are sort of the missing elements in your view?

好的。這很有幫助，伙計們。然後可能更多的是這裡的高級策略問題。如果我們想想 Home Depot 的 PRO 油漆工作。我的意思是，您認為那裡的增長面臨的最大挑戰是什麼？是——是否有足夠的專職銷售人員？是否有足夠的專業產品來完成更大的工作？我們如何 - 我們從哪裡得到 - 我們如何達到與 Sherwin 或 PPG 競爭激烈的地步。我的意思是您認為缺少哪些元素？

I would tell you, I think we are competitive as evidenced by, I think, 45% 2-year stack of growth in Pro. You don't get that without being competitive. I like where our product offering is. Now there are certainly tweaks we can continue to make to the offering, but we've got the right price points, and we have a very strong brand. So it's really about execution. And when we look at what's happened to the customer base over the last couple of years when we've had this extraordinary growth is that we've been able to, because of our supply chain prowess, get our paint in the hands of more painters.

我會告訴你，我認為我們具有競爭力，我認為 Pro 的 2 年增長率為 45%。如果沒有競爭力，你就無法做到這一點。我喜歡我們提供的產品。現在我們當然可以繼續對產品進行調整，但我們有合適的價格點，而且我們有一個非常強大的品牌。所以這真的是關於執行。當我們審視過去幾年客戶群發生的變化時，當我們取得這種非凡的增長時，我們已經能夠，因為我們的供應鏈實力，讓更多的油漆工掌握我們的油漆.

And what we're seeing and have significant data with regard to Net Promoter Scores and customer satisfaction and how they view both our product and the total service offering with our partner, the Home Depot, it's very strong. So the challenge is continuing to execute to continue to deliver on our brand promise and continue to have the right price and the right service proposition and delivering. So I think we're competitive and it's certainly have tough competitors, but I think as evidenced by what the team has been able to do, we're looking forward to the challenge.

我們所看到的和關於淨推薦值和客戶滿意度的重要數據，以及他們如何看待我們的產品和我們的合作夥伴家得寶提供的整體服務，非常強大。因此，挑戰在於繼續執行以繼續兌現我們的品牌承諾，並繼續提供合適的價格和正確的服務主張並交付。所以我認為我們很有競爭力，而且肯定有強硬的競爭對手，但我認為正如團隊能夠做的那樣，我們期待著挑戰。

And John, I also point out to you, maybe just add -- sorry to cut you to add to Keith's comments, is you can take a look of the business. We've grown this to a $900 million business. It's in a market that size, call it, [$9 billion, $10 billion]. So what I like about how we're positioned and everything that Keith just said, we think we've got a great runway in front of us for future growth. Because of our relatively small presence in the overall market, [a $900 million] business, we've got a lot of opportunity to continue to grow this over the coming years with the not only the quality of the product, the initiatives, the people, the strength of the combination of Behr and everything that the team has done, along with our channel partner, the Home Depot. It's a very powerful combination of the 2 companies, and so we think that gives us a lot of opportunities for growth going forward.

約翰，我還向你指出，也許只是補充 - 抱歉打斷你添加到基思的評論中，你可以看一下業務。我們已經將其發展成為一項價值 9 億美元的業務。它在一個如此規模的市場中，稱之為 [90 億美元，100 億美元]。所以我喜歡我們的定位以及基思剛才所說的一切，我們認為我們面前有一條很棒的跑道，可以實現未來的增長。由於我們在整個市場中的存在相對較小，[9 億美元] 業務，我們有很多機會在未來幾年繼續發展，不僅是產品質量，舉措，人員，貝洱結合的力量和團隊所做的一切，以及我們的渠道合作夥伴家得寶。這是兩家公司非常強大的組合，因此我們認為這為我們提供了很多未來增長的機會。

Yes. I probably should have said even more competitive as opposed to just being competitive. So I appreciate that, Thank you, guys.

是的。我可能應該說更具競爭力，而不是僅僅具有競爭力。所以我很感激，謝謝你們，伙計們。

Your next question will come from Mike Dahl at RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Keith, I think in part of your opening remarks about kind of caution that you're trying to express in the guide and recognizing there's some uncertainty in how the economic environment played out on the lagged effect of some stuff that we're all seeing out there. And more specifically, you're a month into the quarter, your comments seem maybe a little more hedging around second half. Can you give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing at the start of 2Q and whether you've seen -- notwithstanding the comps, whether you're seeing any evidence of a significant change in customer behavior across your businesses?

基思，我認為在你的開場白中，你試圖在指南中表達某種謹慎，並認識到經濟環境如何對我們都看到的某些東西的滯後效應產生一些不確定性那裡。更具體地說，你已經進入本季度一個月了，你的評論似乎在下半年左右更加對沖。您能否給我們更多關於您在第二季度開始時所看到的情況的顏色，以及您是否已經看到 - 儘管有補償，您是否看到任何證據表明您的業務中客戶行為發生了重大變化？

Mike, sure, Mike. As you know, I'm a little bit reticent to talk about in quarter and where that looked month-to-month as there's a lot of variability there if a prior period had fewer days or if there was a load in for a new product launch or those sorts of things. So we tend to stick to the quarter. I will tell you that we did see a little bit of softening through the quarter and that coming out in April, it's fairly consistent with how we exited the quarter. So it's not that we're trying to signal what we're seeing in terms of something different than really what came out of the quarter is pretty consistent. It's more of understanding that we're in volatile times and that we're 1 quarter in.

邁克，當然，邁克。如您所知，我不太願意談論每個季度和每個月的情況，因為如果前一個時期的天數較少，或者如果有新產品的負載，那裡會有很多變化啟動或諸如此類的事情。所以我們傾向於堅持這個季度。我會告訴你，我們確實在整個季度看到了一些疲軟，並且在 4 月份出現，這與我們退出該季度的方式相當一致。因此，這並不是說我們試圖用不同的方式來表明我們所看到的與本季度真正出現的情況非常一致。更多的是理解我們正處於動盪時期，而且我們已經進入了 1 個季度。

And we'll -- as we'll learn a lot in the second quarter, and we'll look at the guide, and we'll look at -- have a more informed opinion. It's just an extremely volatile period right now. That's what we're saying. Nothing at all about any sort of in-quarter how we entered the quarter, or how we're doing at the beginning of this quarter.

我們將——因為我們將在第二季度學到很多東西，我們將查看指南，我們將查看——有更明智的意見。現在只是一個極度動蕩的時期。這就是我們所說的。關於我們如何進入本季度，或者我們在本季度初的表現如何，一無所知。

Okay. That's fair. That makes sense. And then the second question, just back on price/cost, I think, clear enough in terms of some of the price commentary where you get the carryover that then fades. I would think that costs follow a somewhat similar trajectory in terms of highest in the first half of the year on inflation and then maybe lower in the back half. But can you just give us a little more sense of from a pure price/cost standpoint, how you expect the year to progress as we go out over 2Q through 4Q?

好的。這還算公平。這就說得通了。然後是第二個問題，回到價格/成本，我認為，就一些價格評論而言，你得到結轉然後消失的足夠清楚。我認為成本遵循某種類似的軌跡，即今年上半年通貨膨脹率最高，然後可能在下半年下降。但是，您能否從純價格/成本的角度給我們更多的了解，隨著我們從第二季度到第四季度，您預計今年會如何發展？

I think we've done a pretty good job of recovering. We'll anniversary some significant price that we gave in mostly in the second quarter. I think the -- we've taken some pockets of further price increases in our Plumbing business where we need it. And we'll continue to evaluate it. But I think the fundamental message is there's an anniversary of the significant price increases that we gave last year that will come into the second half. And really, the dependency as it relates to margin is on the volume.

我認為我們在恢復方面做得很好。我們將紀念我們主要在第二季度給出的一些重大價格。我認為 - 我們已經在我們需要的管道業務中採取了一些進一步提價的措施。我們將繼續對其進行評估。但我認為基本信息是我們去年大幅提價的周年紀念日將進入下半年。實際上，與保證金相關的依賴性在於交易量。

And Mike, I guess what I would add to Keith's comments are, while inflation may have moderated from the peak maybe in the second quarter of last year, inflation, [its moderated], it's been sticky, it's kind of moderated at a higher level than we had expected. And so that's your way into how you think about higher price/cost cadence for the year. I mean, yes, while it's going to be better than this time last year, it's still [ultimately] when you look at [copper] , still hovering around $4 a pound. Some of our paint costs, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, well, we've seen a little bit of moderation [as] stated at kind of elevated levels. We're still seeing some pressure in some inputs, especially in things like TiO2.

邁克，我想我要補充基思的評論是，雖然通貨膨脹可能已經從去年第二季度的峰值開始緩和，通貨膨脹，[緩和]，它一直很粘，在更高的水平上有所緩和超出我們的預期。這就是您如何考慮今年更高價格/成本節奏的方式。我的意思是，是的，雖然它會比去年這個時候好，但當你看[銅]時，它仍然[最終]仍然徘徊在每磅 4 美元左右。我們的一些油漆成本，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的，好吧，我們已經看到了一點點節制 [as] 在某種程度上有所提高。我們仍然看到一些輸入存在一些壓力，尤其是在 TiO2 之類的東西中。

So I would say that's going to be an impact. And overall, we're calling for kind of flat inflation down here in 2022, which is probably higher, but it is higher than what we thought about at the beginning of the year. So because of inputs remaining high, other costs like labor continues to be sticky, pallets, transportation continue to be high. As Keith said, [we all we've been going with] price selectively here in the first part, it's going to be -- we're still seeing fairly sticky inflation.

所以我想說這會產生影響。總的來說，我們呼籲 2022 年的通貨膨脹率持平，這可能會更高，但高於我們年初的預期。因此，由於投入仍然很高，勞動力、托盤、運輸等其他成本繼續居高不下。正如基思所說，[我們一直在努力]在第一部分有選擇地定價，這將是——我們仍然看到相當粘性的通貨膨脹。

Your next question comes from Michael Rehaut at JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

John, it's been a pleasure working with you and best of luck in the future. First question, I wanted to zero in a little bit on the Paint segment. I guess both of my questions are kind of center on that. First, if you could talk any bit about the competitive backdrop. We've heard a lot about Sherwin-Williams potentially getting more aggressive. And I'm wondering specifically, when you talk about investments in the segment over the coming quarters, where those investments will be concentrated in terms of either personnel or potentially other types of marketing or even promotions or brand spend, if any of that is in response to possibly the overall competitive backdrop becoming a little more fierce.

約翰，很高興與你合作，祝你未來好運。第一個問題，我想將 Paint 部分歸零。我想我的兩個問題都集中在這個問題上。首先，如果你能談談競爭背景的話。我們聽說過很多關於宣偉可能變得更具侵略性的消息。我特別想知道，當你談到未來幾個季度對該細分市場的投資時，這些投資將集中在人員或潛在其他類型的營銷，甚至促銷或品牌支出方面，如果有的話對可能整體競爭背景變得更加激烈一些的反應。

Thanks, Mike. Certainly, we have very solid competition in paint, and that makes us better, and we're going to continue to drive our investments, particularly in the Pro, but also in the aisle and in DIY, we're extremely strong. We've fared quite well in the last 2 year stack, as I mentioned, 45% growth when you talk about the Pro. And we're going to continue to invest in that. We think we have a good proposition for the segment of the PRO painters that we're going after. And that investment really isn't so much a competitive response as it is a strategic plan that we've set out since this business was $50 million, not too long ago, and we've grown it up to, as John said, about $900 million. So we're going to continue to invest in that.

謝謝，邁克。當然，我們在油漆方面的競爭非常激烈，這讓我們變得更好，我們將繼續推動我們的投資，特別是在 Pro 方面，但在過道和 DIY 方面，我們非常強大。正如我提到的，我們在過去 2 年的堆棧中表現相當不錯，當你談論 Pro 時增長了 45%。我們將繼續投資於此。我們認為我們對我們追求的 PRO 畫家部分有一個很好的建議。這筆投資與其說是一種競爭性反應，不如說是我們制定的一項戰略計劃，因為不久前這項業務是 5000 萬美元，而且我們已經將其發展到，正如約翰所說，大約9億美元。所以我們將繼續投資於此。

I'm not going to get into the specifics of our plans going forward, but we're going to continue to invest in it to continue to develop our service capabilities and to continue with what we already have in terms of strong Net Promoter Scores and to grow those. What we've done today are things like buy online, pick up in store, ordering, expanding our delivery options where we do more job site delivery, certainly expanding and developing our outside Pro sales for both, Behr and at the Home Depot, enhancing our loyalty programs. There's a number of things that we've done and we'll continue to do. So it's a competitive business, but we're faring well, and we're going to continue to invest in it and expect to continue to gain share.

我不打算詳細介紹我們未來的計劃，但我們將繼續對其進行投資，以繼續發展我們的服務能力，並繼續保持我們在強大的淨推薦值和種植那些。我們今天所做的是在線購買、店內提貨、訂購、擴展我們的交付選項，我們在其中進行更多的工作現場交付，當然擴大和發展我們在 Behr 和 Home Depot 的外部專業銷售，增強我們的忠誠度計劃。我們已經做了很多事情，我們將繼續做。所以這是一項競爭激烈的業務，但我們進展順利，我們將繼續投資並期望繼續獲得份額。

Mike, maybe to address specifically 1 component of your question related to promotions -- promotional activity. There -- I'd say, overall, the level of promotion in the industry has been fairly moderate and perhaps similar to last year. And we continue to think we offer our price competitive market, and we have a product and we think that there will be selective promotions, but we don't see it elevating or escalating over the coming weeks, months, whatever.

邁克，也許可以專門解決與促銷相關的問題的 1 個組成部分——促銷活動。在那裡 - 我想說，總體而言，該行業的促銷水平相當溫和，可能與去年相似。而且我們繼續認為我們提供價格有競爭力的市場，我們有一個產品，我們認為會有選擇性促銷，但我們認為它在未來幾週、幾個月內不會提升或升級。

To the extent our channel partner decides to pursue promotions, that's their decision. But ultimately, we will support them in that, if that's the direction they choose to go, but that's their decision, not our decision.

在某種程度上，我們的渠道合作夥伴決定進行促銷，這是他們的決定。但最終，如果這是他們選擇的方向，我們將支持他們，但這是他們的決定，而不是我們的決定。

Right. That's very helpful. And I appreciate the color on the promotions as well. I guess, secondly, maybe just kind of taking a longer-term view on the segment from a margin standpoint. Your guidance for margins this year would be lower than what you've seen in quite several years. And I'm just trying to triangulate how much of that decline, let's say, from a longer-term average of 18%, 19%. Just pulling up here, it's actually right on the nose, 19% from 2012 to 2021.

正確的。這很有幫助。我也很欣賞促銷活動的顏色。我想，其次，也許只是從利潤率的角度對該細分市場採取更長期的看法。您今年對利潤率的指導將低於您多年來看到的水平。我只是想從 18%、19% 的長期平均值中得出這種下降的幅度。只是拉到這裡，它實際上就在鼻子上，從 2012 年到 2021 年為 19%。

How much of that might be the dollar matching of cost inflation that drives some margin contraction versus anything that you might consider structural. In other words, either -- and I'm not -- I don't know this, but I'm just asking, for example, if the Paint business has maybe a little bit of a lower margin profile, given that it's smaller than DIY and has higher investments or at least in the near term? Or if there's anything that's changed in terms of how we should think about the margins over the next 3 to 5 years?

其中有多少可能是成本通脹與導致利潤率收縮的美元匹配與您可能認為的結構性因素相匹配。換句話說，或者——我不是——我不知道這一點，但我只是想問，例如，油漆業務的利潤率是否可能略低，因為它規模較小比 DIY 投資更高或至少在短期內？或者在我們應該如何考慮未來 3 到 5 年的利潤率方面是否有任何變化？

Michael, I'll take a start at this, and Keith, feel free to chime in. So if you take a look at the differential that you cited, and you consider the price/cost relationship that we've got, as we've said before, it results in margin compression. And if you consider the amount of price we put in, we put in the double-digit pricing over the course of the last couple of years. And if you think about a 10% price increase would lead to about 180 to 200 basis point margin contraction, that accounts for the vast majority of that margin compression, Mike, that you cited.

Michael，我將從這裡開始，Keith，請隨意插話。因此，如果你看看你引用的差異，並考慮我們所擁有的價格/成本關係，因為我們'我之前說過，它會導致利潤率壓縮。如果你考慮我們投入的價格，我們在過去幾年中投入了兩位數的價格。如果你認為 10% 的價格上漲會導致大約 180 到 200 個基點的利潤率收縮，這佔了你引用的利潤率壓縮的絕大部分，邁克。

There are some -- some of the investments would be a headwind that we had because you bring on a new sales force, there's always cost ahead of sales generation. And so that will be a little bit of a headwind to it. So those would probably be the significant things. There's not a -- there's a little bit of a margin differential in Pro because of some of the investments that we've made in things like people, job site delivery and other capabilities, the loyalty program that Keith cited a couple of minutes ago. So that will be a little bit of a headwind and create a little bit of margin headwind. But the bulk of it is going to be the price recovery relationship that we've got. Keith, I don't know if there's anything else?

有一些 - 有些投資會成為我們的逆風，因為你帶來了一支新的銷售隊伍，在銷售產生之前總是有成本。因此，這會對它造成一點不利影響。所以這些可能是重要的事情。由於我們在人員、工作現場交付和其他能力方面進行的一些投資，以及幾分鐘前基思引用的忠誠度計劃，Pro 中沒有一點利潤差異。因此，這將是一點逆風，並產生一點利潤率逆風。但其中大部分將是我們所擁有的價格恢復關係。基思，我不知道還有什麼事嗎？

I think we had a The volume decline, the price/cost recovery dynamic and the continued investment in Pro.

我認為我們經歷了銷量下降、價格/成本恢復動態以及對 Pro 的持續投資。

Your next question comes from Adam Baumgarten of Zelman.

你的下一個問題來自 Zelman 的 Adam Baumgarten。

Just on the decremental margin piece. I believe last quarter, you were talking about overall decremental margins maybe being in that low 20% range, and you are around 20% for the first quarter. Is that still kind of how you're thinking about the balance of the year? Or has that changed at all?

就在遞減保證金部分。我相信上個季度，你在談論整體遞減利潤率可能在 20% 的低範圍內，而第一季度你在 20% 左右。這仍然是你對今年餘下時間的看法嗎？還是根本改變了？

Adam, as Keith mentioned on the call or in his prepared remarks, we're working hard to keep our cost control and keep our decremental and focus on our decremental margins, keeping around that 20% level. Obviously, things could change if volumes were to deteriorate more significantly than we were forecasting, that could have an impact on it. But we're working hard to keep our decrementals around 20% this year.

亞當，正如基思在電話會議上或他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們正在努力保持成本控制並保持遞減，並專注於遞減利潤率，保持在 20% 左右的水平。顯然，如果銷量比我們預測的更嚴重地惡化，情況可能會發生變化，這可能會對它產生影響。但我們正在努力將今年的遞減量保持在 20% 左右。

Okay. Got it. And then just on the price increases in Plumbing, I think it was 10 days or so ago, maybe a week in Delta, Brizo and Peerless, just wondering how that's being accepted by the market, just given that we're not hearing a lot of price increases, broadly speaking, out there in building products?

好的。知道了。然後就 Plumbing 的價格上漲而言，我認為是 10 天左右之前，Delta、Brizo 和 Peerless 可能是一個星期，只是想知道市場是如何接受的，因為我們聽到的不多從廣義上講，建築產品的價格上漲是多少？

I think it's understandable when you look at the massive inflation that we've experienced. And we were a little bit behind in getting that pricing in place, and it's -- no 1 is ever happy to hear about price increases, but the channel understands what we've all been through and also what the competition has done. So I think it's going quite well.

當你看看我們經歷過的大規模通貨膨脹時，我認為這是可以理解的。我們在定價方面有點落後，而且 - 沒有人樂於聽到價格上漲，但渠道了解我們所經歷的一切以及競爭對手所做的事情。所以我認為它進行得很好。

Your next question will come from Susan Maklari at Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

And let me add my best wishes to John. My first question is speaking about the cost environment. You've obviously set a fairly cautious tone there as you're looking at the next couple of quarters. But what are you watching specifically within the business to determine if you need to take additional actions? Or what would make you more confident to add incremental investments?

讓我向約翰致以最良好的祝愿。我的第一個問題是關於成本環境。在展望接下來的幾個季度時，您顯然已經設置了相當謹慎的基調。但是，您在企業內部具體觀察了什麼，以確定是否需要採取額外的行動？或者什麼會讓你更有信心增加增量投資？

Susan, I think there's an external and an internal view that we look at, the usual suspects in terms of external data in terms of home prices and home equity increasing existing home sales, better-than-expected GDP in U.S., Europe, China, consumer confidence, those are the externals that we look at, but really our action would be more fundamentally triggered by what we see in terms of POS and incoming order rates. So that's really what we would key on to say, hey, it's time to maybe look at a different investment rhythm based on what the market is seeing. And that's -- I think that's the key, there's flexibility. And having activation points that we look at and having those plans on the shelf. And of course, we have those.

蘇珊，我認為我們在觀察外部和內部觀點，通常懷疑外部數據如房價和房屋淨值增加現有房屋銷售，美國、歐洲、中國的 GDP 好於預期，消費者信心，這些是我們關注的外部因素，但實際上我們的行動將更根本地由我們在 POS 和新訂單率方面看到的情況觸發。所以這真的是我們要說的重點，嘿，是時候根據市場所看到的情況來考慮不同的投資節奏了。那就是——我認為這是關鍵，有靈活性。並擁有我們查看的激活點並將這些計劃放在架子上。當然，我們有這些。

Okay. And then when we think about the quarter, there were obviously some events that came through late in March, as it really, the banking environment and the consumer lending in there. Have you seen any change in the tone from both retailers as well as the dealers on the Plumbing and the Paint side in terms of their willingness to take inventories into the season or any change in how they're thinking about the outlook and the approach to demand?

好的。然後當我們考慮這個季度時，顯然有一些事件發生在 3 月下旬，實際上，銀行環境和那裡的消費者貸款。您是否看到零售商以及管道和油漆方面的經銷商在他們願意將庫存帶入季節方面的基調有任何變化，或者他們對前景和方法的看法有任何變化要求？

No, really not at all. In terms of inventory position, we actually -- I think it was small. I wouldn't say it was material, but we had a little restocking in our Plumbing segment where some of our bigger wholesalers put in a little bit more inventory. Certainly, we want to be ready for spring selling season. And I think when our business leaders look across the channel inventory, I'd say we think we're in pretty good positioned for the level of demand that we're seeing at this point. So no real hesitation in anticipation of some sort of event or turn down as it relates to inventory.

不，真的一點也不。就庫存狀況而言，我們實際上 - 我認為它很小。我不會說這很重要，但我們在我們的管道部門進行了一些補貨，我們的一些較大的批發商增加了一些庫存。當然，我們希望為春季銷售旺季做好準備。而且我認為，當我們的業務領導者查看整個渠道庫存時，我會說我們認為我們在目前所看到的需求水平上處於非常有利的位置。因此，對於與庫存相關的某種事件或拒絕的預期，沒有真正的猶豫。

What I would also say, Susan, is that even Probably did cause us to add a little bit more caution to our stance and our outlook going forward only because there's going to be -- there could be some ripple effect through the economy that is unanticipated or unforeseen. And so that's kind of the way we digested that event.

蘇珊，我還要說的是，即使可能確實讓我們對我們的立場和我們的前景更加謹慎，只是因為將會 - 可能會對經濟產生一些意想不到的連鎖反應或不可預見的。這就是我們消化該事件的方式。

Your next question will come from Keith Hughes at Truist.

您的下一個問題將來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

Questions in Plumbing. You called out the Spa business in size, and it's declined in the quarter. Are there any other subproduct categories or channels that are outsized and affecting the volume decline in the quarter?

管道問題。您提到了 Spa 業務的規模，但該業務在本季度有所下降。是否有任何其他子產品類別或渠道規模過大並影響了本季度的銷量下降？

Could you say that again? You broke up just a little bit, Keith. The last part of your question, are there any other channels...

你能再說一遍嗎？你分手了一點點，基思。您問題的最後一部分，還有其他渠道嗎...

Yes. Any of the Plumbing channels or products that are outsized in terms of their decline in the fall in the business in the first quarter?

是的。任何水暖渠道或產品在第一季度業務下滑方面表現突出？

But for Spas, it's been pretty consistent and broad-based, Keith. When we look at product categories from bathing to accessories to fixtures, taps and showers, pretty consistent retail to trade. I would say that maybe trade held up a little bit better earlier on in the quarter as we were working through some of the backlogs and some of the bigger projects, but it's been pretty consistent. But you're exactly right. We have experienced some 20% decline in the quarter in spas. Now that's after a 3-year run of some 50% growth. So it's been a real strong period of growth. And I think the new launches in Spas and the total new refresh of our best-selling line of Spas it's just fabulous. I think that's going to really help us compete in this challenging environment. But it's been pretty consistent but for the Spa business as it relates to decline.

但對於 Spas，它一直非常一致且基礎廣泛，Keith。當我們查看從沐浴到配件再到固定裝置、水龍頭和淋浴器的產品類別時，從零售到貿易都非常一致。我想說的是，由於我們正在處理一些積壓的訂單和一些更大的項目，所以本季度早些時候貿易可能會好一點，但它一直非常穩定。但你完全正確。水療中心在本季度下降了約 20%。現在，這是在連續 3 年增長約 50% 之後。所以這是一個真正強勁的增長時期。而且我認為 Spas 的新推出以及我們最暢銷的 Spas 系列的全新更新真是太棒了。我認為這將真正幫助我們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中競爭。但它一直非常穩定，但對於 Spa 業務而言，因為它與衰退有關。

And second question on that, even if we x out the Spa, it's still a pretty notable unit decline across the rest of Plumbing in an industry that's not really known for a lot of cyclicality even in the tough periods. What are you hearing in the channel of why the business has fallen off pretty notably in units?

第二個問題是，即使我們排除了水療中心，它仍然是整個管道行業的一個非常顯著的單位下降，即使在艱難時期，這個行業的周期性也並不為人所知。您在頻道中聽到了什麼關於為什麼業務在單位方面顯著下降的原因？

Yes. I mean, Keith, we've seen some degradation in volume. That said, I would kind of point you to the fact that we were up against a pretty significant comp in the beginning -- from first quarter last year, a 9% comp is quite strong for this segment. And so I think that plays into some of the volume decline that we saw in the year, just up against the big number from the first quarter of last year.

是的。我的意思是，基思，我們已經看到音量有所下降。就是說，我會向您指出一個事實，即我們在一開始就遇到了一個相當重要的競爭——從去年第一季度開始，這個細分市場的 9% 競爭相當強勁。因此，我認為這在一定程度上影響了我們今年看到的銷量下降，與去年第一季度的大數字相比。

Your next question will come from Stephen Kim at Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

John, we're going to miss you. But best of luck. I wanted to follow up a little bit on your margin commentary. I think basically, just to really be crystal clear, I think that you talked about the margins on a year-over-year basis, that delta year-over-year improving sequentially through the year. So that seems to imply a 2Q operating margin better than 17.2%. And want to just make sure that I'm understanding what you're saying. And also, will this year-over-year progression kind of hold true across both segments?

約翰，我們會想念你的。但祝你好運。我想跟進一下您的保證金評論。我想基本上，為了真正清楚，我認為你談到了同比利潤率，該增量同比逐年提高。所以這似乎意味著第二季度的營業利潤率好於 17.2%。並且只想確保我理解你在說什麼。而且，這種逐年增長的情況是否適用於這兩個細分市場？

We didn't give commentary specifically by the cadence by segment. I would say that your commentary about the company in total, Stephen, is right. I mean so what we said is year-over-year sequentially, we improved Q2 could be a bit of -- might be a bit of a challenge for us. But as we go into the back half of the year, things that -- the ability to expand margins sequentially gets better because on a year-over-year basis, just because of the softer margins we posted in the back half of last year.

我們沒有按段的節奏具體給出評論。斯蒂芬，我想說你對公司的總體評論是正確的。我的意思是，我們所說的是逐年遞增，我們改進的第二季度可能有點 - 對我們來說可能有點挑戰。但隨著我們進入今年下半年，由於我們在去年下半年發布的利潤率較軟，因此逐年擴大利潤率的能力會變得更好。

So you're saying that you may not have a better year-over-year comparison in 2Q versus 1Q?

所以你是說你可能沒有更好的第二季度與第一季度的同比比較？

Yes, quarter hasn't played out, but that could be the case.

是的，季度尚未結束，但情況可能如此。

Okay. Second, I guess, would be the -- is there anything about your outlook, which envisions a longer duration of a challenging environment? So are we talking about maybe some things extending into fourth quarter, maybe longer than you had previously thought or anything about the duration that is worth commenting on?

好的。其次，我想，您的前景是否有任何內容，即設想一個充滿挑戰的環境會持續更長的時間？那麼我們是在談論可能延續到第四季度的一些事情，可能比你之前想像的要長，或者任何值得評論的持續時間？

There's a lot of volatility that remains to be seen. Our current thinking is that we'll go to growth as we exit this year and enter into next year. But that certainly remains to be seen.

還有很多波動有待觀察。我們目前的想法是，隨著我們今年退出並進入明年，我們將實現增長。但這當然還有待觀察。

Next question will come from Tim Wojs at Baird.

下一個問題將來自 Baird 的 Tim Wojs。

Hey everybody, good morning, and John, good luck on everything. Maybe just on the Plumbing side, if you can maybe just give us an update on kind of what you're seeing on the supply chain. I know Keith, you talked about that kind of getting better in the second quarter and having pretty good visibility on that kind of going to the back half of the year? And just kind of an update on what's going on there.

大家好，早上好，約翰，祝你一切順利。也許只是在管道方面，如果您可以向我們提供有關您在供應鏈上看到的情況的最新信息。我知道基思，你談到了第二季度的這種情況，並且對今年下半年的這種情況有很好的了解？只是關於那裡發生的事情的更新。

Yes, Tim, I would say that we've executed better than expected in the first quarter, frankly, is the supply chain has come around, there's still some work to do. We have pockets of tightness with some of the supply base. But all in all, I'd say it's getting better as the volumes have eased a little bit. Our delivery rates are improving productivity, et cetera. So I would say, all in, while it's not perfect, it's getting better.

是的，蒂姆，我會說我們在第一季度的執行情況好於預期，坦率地說，供應鏈已經恢復，還有一些工作要做。我們與一些供應基地關係緊張。但總而言之，我想說情況正在好轉，因為數量有所減少。我們的交付率正在提高生產力等。所以我想說，總而言之，雖然它並不完美，但它正在變得更好。

Okay. Okay. Good. And then just maybe on the Plumbing business within the International business, I mean, any change to how you're thinking about that business over the course of the year? And the reason I ask is it performed better than I would have thought, and I think Q1 was actually the most difficult comparison. So maybe just how you're thinking about that business, both kind of cyclically in Europe and then kind of competitively with some of your competitors there.

好的。好的。好的。然後可能只是國際業務中的管道業務，我的意思是，在這一年中，您對該業務的看法有何變化？我問的原因是它的表現比我想像的要好，我認為 Q1 實際上是最難比較的。因此，也許您是如何看待這項業務的，既在歐洲有周期性，又在與那裡的一些競爭對手競爭。

There's -- there really hasn't been a change in how we're thinking about the International business, but I will tell you that the way we are thinking about it is that we expect it to have more volume pressure as we look through to the end of the year than what we've experienced so far. It's held up really nicely. And I think declined 3% against a strong 18% comp. So in this kind of environment, that's really strong. When we think about how we're looking at that for the full year is to be down overall high single digits. So we are experiencing -- are not experiencing -- we are expecting a little tougher top line environment there than what we've experienced so far. But that's not a change in our thinking.

我們對國際業務的看法確實沒有改變，但我會告訴你，我們考慮它的方式是我們預計它會在我們審視時承受更大的銷量壓力今年年底比我們迄今為止所經歷的還要多。它支撐得非常好。而且我認為與強勁的 18% 相比下降了 3%。所以在這種環境下，那真的很強。當我們考慮我們如何看待全年時，總體上會下降個位數。所以我們正在經歷——沒有經歷——我們預計那裡的頂線環境會比我們迄今為止所經歷的更艱難。但這並沒有改變我們的想法。

Tim, you had asked in terms of the competition. We're doing very well relative to competition in Europe, and we are most definitely taking share. Hansgrohe team is doing an outstanding job.

蒂姆，你問過競爭方面的問題。相對於歐洲的競爭，我們做得很好，而且我們肯定會分享。漢斯格雅團隊表現出色。

Next question will come from Truman Patterson at Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

John, it's been great working with you over the years, and good luck in the future. I'm hoping that you all can discuss the sequential ramp in Plumbing op margins quarter-over-quarter, a pretty nice ramp. Do you think that some of the operational inefficiencies over the past couple of years, there's been labor transportation, some supply chain stuff that have weight on those margins are kind of largely behind you at this point? And then is there any way you might be able to quantify some of the costs that might be embedded in the back half of the year? I think you mentioned some brand and marketing investments, plant investments, et cetera.

約翰，這些年來與你的合作非常愉快，祝你未來好運。我希望你們都能討論 Plumbing op 利潤率季度環比的連續上升，這是一個非常好的上升。你是否認為過去幾年的一些運營效率低下，勞動力運輸，一些對這些利潤有影響的供應鏈東西在這一點上基本上落後於你？那麼有沒有什麼方法可以量化下半年可能產生的一些成本？我想你提到了一些品牌和營銷投資、工廠投資等等。

So the team has done a good job of getting our efficiencies in order. As you well know, in a period of declining volume, that is an ongoing effort as we work to balance depending on where the volumes go, our variable costs and how our shifts run. So it's -- the work is never done when you're in a volatile environment like this. But I would say that the significant amount of our inefficiencies that we've experienced associated with the last couple of years are fixed and behind us and the team got after honestly a little quicker than I thought they would. So that was a nice positive in the quarter.

因此，團隊在提高效率方面做得很好。眾所周知，在銷量下降的時期，這是一項持續的努力，因為我們努力根據銷量的去向、我們的可變成本以及我們的輪班方式來平衡。所以它是——當你處於這樣一個多變的環境中時，工作永遠不會完成。但我要說的是，我們在過去幾年中遇到的大量低效率問題已經得到解決，並且在我們身後，而且團隊確實比我想像的要快一點。所以這在本季度是一個很好的積極因素。

In terms of the specific spend that we'll have -- we have a new plant start-up, there will be some start-up costs in our European plant that we're moving -- continuing to move forward with. So that would be a little bit of a headwind. And then the reduced volume and the drop down of that is the main driver.

就我們將擁有的具體支出而言——我們有一家新工廠啟動，我們正在搬遷的歐洲工廠將有一些啟動成本——繼續向前推進。所以這會有點不利。然後減少的數量和下降的數量是主要驅動因素。

Okay. Perfect. And then, John, I believe you said that the overall inflation bucket this year should be flattish, a little bit higher than what you were expecting 3 months ago. But is there any way you might be able to kind of break it out by segment? I believe last quarter, you were expecting Plumbing raw materials to be down like low single digits and [deck] are closer to flattish. Any way you can help us think through that?

好的。完美的。然後，約翰，我相信你說過今年的整體通脹桶應該持平，比你 3 個月前的預期高一點。但是有什麼方法可以將其按細分細分嗎？我相信上個季度，您預計管道原材料會像低個位數一樣下降，並且 [deck] 接近持平。你有什麼辦法可以幫助我們思考這個問題嗎？

Yes. I'd say on that, we're seeing continued -- I guess, moderated but still high levels of copper prices. Copper hasn't come down like we thought. So it's still hanging in there $4. We thought it might retrace a little bit more. The other thing I would tell you is on the paint Input side. Those are turning a little bit higher than we would have expected at this point as well with tiO2 facing upward pressure. And so I think on both ends -- in both segments, I should say, Truman, we're seeing things being stickier perhaps on the Plumbing side than we would initially have forecasted 3 months ago, a little bit more upward pressure on some of the inputs like TiO2 on the paint side.

是的。我想說的是，我們看到繼續——我想，銅價有所緩和但仍然處於高位。銅並沒有像我們想像的那樣下跌。所以它仍然掛在那裡 4 美元。我們認為它可能會回撤更多一點。我要告訴你的另一件事是在繪畫輸入方面。這些比我們目前預期的要高一點，二氧化鈦面臨上行壓力。所以我認為在兩端 - 在這兩個部分，我應該說，杜魯門，我們看到管道方面的事情可能比我們 3 個月前最初預測的更棘手，一些上行壓力更大塗料側的 TiO2 之類的輸入。

Pefect. Thank you all, good luck in the upcoming quarter.

完美。謝謝大家，祝下個季度好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your final question will come from Phil Ng at Jefferies.

您的最後一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

John, congrats, and thanks for all the help and as well as you, Dave, appreciate all the help, and congrats on the new role. I guess my question for you, Keith, perhaps appreciating you're largely in R&R, there's been a fair amount of excitement on new construction to spring selling season, not necessarily the perfect read-through, but it sounds like your guidance is at least factoring a step down in demand perhaps in the back half of this year. Curious if your view and channel partners' outlook on demand this year has changed much in the -- call it, the last few months? And how do you kind of see the year progressing on the demand side?

John，恭喜並感謝您提供的所有幫助，Dave，感謝您提供的所有幫助，並祝賀您擔任新角色。我想我的問題是，基思，也許是因為你主要在 R&R 中，對春季銷售季節的新建築有相當多的興奮，不一定是完美的通讀，但聽起來你的指導至少是考慮到今年下半年需求可能會下降。想知道您的觀點和渠道合作夥伴對今年的需求前景是否在最近幾個月發生了很大變化？您如何看待今年需求方面的進展？

It really hasn't changed much. And when you look at our full year guide compared to how Q1 fared, it's pretty consistent across both segments. So I'd say not a lot of change, really. And again, we're 1 quarter in.

它真的沒有太大變化。當您將我們的全年指南與第一季度的表現進行比較時，您會發現這兩個細分市場的表現非常一致。所以我想說變化不大，真的。再一次，我們進入了 1 個季度。

Okay. Helpful. And then from a mix standpoint, anything you want to call out? I mean, at least we're hearing maybe the high end of the market is holding up a little better. But curious if you're seeing any nuances on mix and what kind of impact that could have on margins, especially in the more mixed macro backdrop in the back half of the year potentially?

好的。有幫助。然後從混音的角度來看，你想說什麼？我的意思是，至少我們聽說高端市場可能表現得更好一些。但好奇的是，您是否看到混合方面的任何細微差別以及可能對利潤率產生什麼樣的影響，尤其是在今年下半年可能更加複雜的宏觀背景下？

There we haven't seen anything material, Phil. A slight but not material, maybe a little bit of trade down in Europe in Plumbing. But beyond that, net for the company, we haven't really seen any significant mix impact or trade down, and our guide doesn't really reflect that either.

我們還沒有看到任何實質性的東西，菲爾。輕微但不重要，可能在歐洲的管道行業有一點貿易下降。但除此之外，對於公司而言，我們還沒有真正看到任何重大的混合影響或交易下降，我們的指南也沒有真正反映這一點。

Thank you all for joining us on the call this morning and for your continued interest in Masco. This concludes today's call.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議，感謝大家對 Masco 的持續關注。今天的電話會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for this morning. We would like to thank everyone for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天上午的電話會議到此結束。我們要感謝大家的參與，並請您斷開線路。