Macerich Co (MAC) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Macerich Company Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

Today's call is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Jean Wood, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead, ma'am.

Good morning.

Thank you for joining us on our Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Call.

During the course of this call, we will be making certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking within the meaning of the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks uncertainties and other factors.

We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of forward-looking statements.

Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the earnings release and supplemental filed on Form 8-K with the SEC posted in the Investor section of the company's website at macerich.com.

Joining us today are Tom O'Hern, Chief Executive Officer; Scott Kingsmore, Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer; and Doug Healey, Executive Vice President, Leasing.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.

Thank you, Jean, and thank all of you for joining us today.

It was a solid quarter with generally good operating results.

Sales per foot were up 13.2% to $800 per square foot, that's our 12th consecutive quarter of sales growth.

Occupancy was 93.8%, down from 95.1% a year ago, mostly due to first half 2019 bankruptcies.

Average rents were up 3.5%.

We continue to experience very good leasing volumes with year-to-date leasing activity up 29% compared to last year.

The leasing environment continues to improve with strong activity across multiple categories.

We are nearing completion of our extensive 2019 financing plan, which in total will generate nearly $600 million of liquidity.

As we continue to explore noncore dispositions, we have an agreement to sell our 50% interest in Tysons VITA, the residential tower at Tysons corner for $82.5 million.

That transaction is anticipated to close near year-end.

FFO per share was $0.88, exceeding First Call and Bloomberg consensus estimates.

As you are all very well aware, Forever 21 has filed for bankruptcy.

We have 28 locations with them.

We've been in weekly conversations and negotiations with them.

Four of their stores will close later this year or early next year, and one of those stores is not owned by us, Vintage Faire.

There will be rent concessions on many of the other stores.

We expect the total impact on an annual basis of the closures and concessions to be approximately $0.08 per share on an annual basis.

We felt the effect by about $0.01 a share in the third quarter and will feel the effect by about another $0.01 a share in the fourth quarter.

The 2 large-format stores they plan to close are already re-leased.

On the redevelopment front, our pipeline continues to progress well.

On September 19, Macerich and PREIT opened Fashion District Philadelphia.

The property features unique and exciting mix of full price flagship outlet retail, restaurants, entertainment and co-working uses.

Tenants such as Century 21, Burlington, Nike, H&M, City Winery, ULTA, Hollister and American Eagle, have all reported extremely strong traffic and sales volumes that exceed their expectations.

Another 150,000 square feet is expected to open by holiday 2019, including an entertainment cluster, featuring an AMC theater, which is downtown Philadelphia's first theater in 35 years, Round One and Wonderspaces.

Within the past quarter, we have executed leases with several very noteworthy tenants, including Primark, which will open a 2-level flagship, Industrious, Sephora, Kate Spade, AX Armani and DSW shoes.

We're very pleased by the opening and the leasing momentum from this unique downtown destination.

We have leases executed for 80% of the center with another 14% of the space committed on an active negotiation.

We continue to make excellent progress on the repositioning of the recaptured Sears locations.

Construction is underway at 4 of these locations at which new tenants will open in 2020.

The entitlement process continues at the 2 larger mixed-use projects, Los Cerritos Center and Washington Square.

Both of those assets are in our top 10.

Our thinking on these 2 densification projects continues to evolve, including likely delivering mixed-use elements through long-term ground leases for the nonretail components, including hotel and multifamily residential.

We now estimate the aggregate redevelopment investment at these locations of $130 million to $160 million over the next several years.

Pre-leasing of these redevelopments continues to progress well, including a recent signing of a new entertainment concept from Harkins Theaters at Chandler Fashion Center.

The diversity and uniqueness of the tenancies for these former Sears locations is broad and compelling, including sporting goods, entertainment, fitness, food and beverage, medical, hotel, multifamily residential and potentially coworking.

This array of uses will provide a diverse cash flow stream and will greatly elevate the productivity and customer traffic compared to the former department store use.

For more details, please see our 8-K filing this morning.

At Scottsdale Fashion Square, we're nearing completion of a multifaceted redevelopment.

Industrious is now 100% occupied within the former Barney's department store location.

As we continue to expand our partnership with Industrious at Broadway Plaza, Fashion District Philadelphia and Country Club Plaza, we are very encouraged by the synergies we've observed in Scottsdale from coworking in a retail environment.

The new Apple flagship at Scottsdale continues to be a magnet of customer energy and for additional leasing activity within the east wing of the property.

Follow-on leasing of digitally native brands, luxury brands and other retail has exceeded our expectation.

By spring of 2020, the full collection of high-end and lifestyle restaurants will be fully opened, and we anticipate that both Equinox and Caesars Republic Hotel will open during 2021.

With sales now exceeding $1,500 per square foot and total property sales in 2020, up 38% and growing, Scottsdale Fashion Square is clearly firing on all cylinders.

In Carson, California, the Carson Reclamation Authority continues its horizontal site work to support Los Angeles Premium Outlets.

Our 50-50 JV with Simon Property Group expects to commence vertical construction of Phase I in 2020.

Pre-leasing interest for the project, including flagship and anchor Retail is very strong.

As we've mentioned, and Doug will provide more details on this in a few minutes, the leasing environment has never offered a greater diversity and breadth of uses.

Uses include coworking, fitness, beauty and health, digitally native and emerging brands, entertainment, food and beverage, hotel and multifamily.

These are clearly the future for the best situated retail real estate like ours.

I have firm conviction that despite the current disruption in the retail environment, this is ultimately creating a healthier and more diverse portfolio.

And now I'd like to turn it over to Scott.

Thank you, Tom.

The third quarter reflected good financial results exceeding Street expectations.

Here are some highlights for the quarter.

FFO was $0.88 per share, which was $0.01 ahead of Bloomberg and first call consensus of $0.87 per share.

This represents an $0.11 decline from FFO in the third quarter of 2018 of $0.99 per share, given primarily to the following factors.

First, a higher interest expense of $2.7 million.

Secondly, higher leasing expenses of $5.6 million, driven by the new lease accounting standard.

Third, lower lease termination income of $3.3 million.

Fourth, reduced land sale gains of $4.2 million, driven by 2 land sales that occurred in the third quarter of last year.

And lost anchor rents from Sears, which was approximately $2 million.

These factors were then offset by savings in corporate overhead of $2.5 million.

Same-center growth and net operating income was up 0.9% for the year and 0.2% for the quarter.

The year-to-date growth is on the high end of our 0.5% to 1% same-center NOI guidance for 2019.

The deceleration in third quarter growth is consistent with our expectation as we previously communicated, given the full quarter impact of bankruptcies in the third quarter and also given strong comp-center growth that we're bumping up against in the third quarter of '18.

Margins continue to show improvement.

The EBITDA margin for the quarter improved by 40 basis points from the third quarter of 2018, up to 63.8%.

EBITDA margin year-to-date was up approximately 1%.

And on a trailing 12-month basis, EBITDA margin stands at 64.4%.

This is a mall sector-leading margin improvement of over 5% since 2014, which is very noteworthy considering the top line pressures in our business over the last few years.

With respect to 2019 earnings guidance at this time, we are affirming our guide -- reaffirming our guidance for both FFO per share diluted and for same-center net operating income.

And we direct you to our 8-K supplemental filing from this morning.

Regarding our financing activity.

The following summarizes the current status for our '19 plan.

Leaning into the quarter, we had closed 4 deals totaling over $850 million.

In July, our Fashion District Philadelphia joint venture closed an accordion amendment to its existing unsecured term loan facility, which resulted in a $51 million of additional funding at LIBOR plus 2%.

In September, we closed on a $190 million CMBS loan on the previously unencumbered Tysons tower.

This 10-year loan bears fixed interest at 3.33%, and it's full term interest only.

Our joint venture on One Westside anticipates closing a syndicated nonrecourse bank construction loan in the fourth quarter, which is expected to have very attractive terms.

When closed, this financing will -- or this loan will finance the partnership's remaining incremental costs to deliver the redevelopment of this creative office campus to Google.

And then lastly, we have agreed to terms on a $555 million CMBS financing on the recently redeveloped Kings Plaza in Brooklyn.

This will generate over $125 million of excess loan proceeds versus the existing debt.

This 10-year loan will bear fixed interest rates at 3.67%, is full term interest-only and is expected to close within the fourth quarter.

This financing is anticipated to provide $10 million of ongoing annual cash flow savings relative to the existing mortgage that will be prepaid.

Collectively, these financings represent an ambitious 8 loan financing plan for 2019, which is nearly complete and that is expected to exceed $2 billion in total volume and to generate approximately $576 million of incremental liquidity to the company.

Looking forward over the next several years, we do anticipate annual incremental cash flow from financings of $250 million to $400 million per year.

Today, we have over $700 million of capacity on our $1.5 billion revolving line of credit.

That's a summary of our 2019 financing plan.

And now I'll turn it over to Doug to discuss the leasing and operating environment.

Thanks, Scott.

In the third quarter, sales and occupancy remains strong and the leasing momentum continued.

Portfolio sales ended the third quarter at $800 per square foot, that represented a 13.2% increase from $707 per square foot on a year-over-year basis.

Economic sales per square foot, which are weighted based on NOI, were $922 per square foot, that's up 12.6% from $819 per square foot a year ago.

Quarter end occupancy was 93.8%, down 1.3% from the end of the third quarter 2018, and down 0.3% from the end of the second quarter of 2019.

Trailing 12-month leasing spreads were 8.3% compared to 9.4% at the end of the second quarter 2019.

Average rent for the portfolio was $61.16, that's up 3.5% from $59.09 one year ago.

Consistent with the second quarter, leasing volumes remained extremely strong in the third quarter.

During the third quarter, 239 leases were signed for just over 1 million square feet, bringing the year-to-date total to about 2.6 million square feet.

This represents 29% more leases and 25% more square feet than at this point last year.

And this excludes Fashion District of Philadelphia, which we'll discuss in a moment.

Leases of note include Tiffany at Village at Corte Madera, Rodd and Gunn at Broadway Plaza, Five Below at Freehold, Jo Malone at Scottsdale Fashion Square and Carters at Arrowhead, FlatIron and Freehold.

The large format of food and beverage spaces remain active.

As Tom mentioned, we signed a 65,000 square-foot entertainment concept by Harkins Theater for the second level of Sears at Chandler.

And we also signed a lease with Saratoga Hospital to replace 57,000 square feet of the former Sears at Wilton Mall.

In the food and beverage category, we signed leases with Bourbon & Bones at SanTan, Urban Plates and Yard Bird at North Bridge and Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurants at Chandler.

We signed multiple leases with digitally native and emerging brands, including Casper, Tommy John and Stance at Scottsdale Fashion Square, ROMAN and Gilly Hicks at Tysons Corner, Alton Lane at North Bridge and Amazon 4-Star at The Village at Corte Madera.

And further to Tom's comments on Fashion District Philadelphia regarding its grand opening, it was another stellar quarter for FDP in terms of leasing.

In the third quarter, we signed 16 leases for 83,000 square feet, including a lease with Industrious for 47,000 square feet and the momentum continues.

In the last 3 weeks alone, we signed leases with industry-leading retailers, including Primark in 47,000 square feet, Sephora in 7,500 square feet, Kate Spade in 3,500 square feet and DSW in 15,000 square feet.

Also in the third quarter, we opened 65 tenants totaling 206,000 square feet.

Retailers of note include H&M at Danbury Fair, SunLife Organics at Scottsdale Fashion, Five Below at Fresno, Abercrombie Kids at Arrowhead and Stonewood, Vans at Fashion Outlets of Niagara Falls, J. McLaughlin at Biltmore and Altar'd State at Washington Square.

In the emerging brands category, we opened Casper at Tysons Corner Center and Warby Parker at Village at Corte Madera.

Also in the third quarter, we opened 7 locations totaling 46,000 square feet with YM, a fashion retail chain out of Toronto, Canada.

As most will recall, earlier this year, Charlotte Russe filed Chapter 11, and ultimately liquidated in March, leaving us with 26 locations, totaling 160,000 square feet.

YM bought the rights to the Charlotte Russe name and ultimately signed leases with us at 18 of our 26 vacant Charlotte Russe locations.

And as I mentioned, 7 of those locations opened in the third quarter, the remaining 11 will open between fourth quarter 2019 and first quarter 2020.

Of the 8 Charlotte Russe locations that YM didn't take, 5 have already been leased to other retailers.

So at the end of the day, we've leased 23 of the 26 Charlotte Russe locations, leaving only 3 of the 26 locations, or only 18,000 square feet of the 160,000 square feet unaccounted for.

And this all happened within 6 months of Charlotte Russe liquidating.

The point of this really is to highlight yet another example of our ability to react quickly and efficiently to some of the headwinds our industry is currently facing.

And in most cases, improving the quality of our real estate along the way.

So in conclusion, the leasing environment remains strong and our metrics are solid.

We continue to demonstrate our ability to take advantage of the current disruption in the retail environment by uncovering and securing new, exciting and cutting-edge uses across multi-faceted categories.

And in doing so, we continue to create properties that are among the most desirable in our industry and will be for a long time to come.

And with that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open up the call for Q&A.

Thank you, sir.

(Operator Instructions)

We'll take the first question today from Jim Sullivan, BTIG.

A couple of questions, Tom, on the trend of the metrics here.

Sales productivity growth has been very impressive for a while.

On the other hand, when we look at leasing spreads, they're a little bit weaker here than what we have seen.

And as a result, the occupancy cost as a percentage of sales has been easing slightly, and this has been going on for several quarters.

So I wonder if you can kind of help us understand as the tenant mix is changing, and we oftentimes mention Tesla, we mention Apple.

The productivity or the occupancy cost has tended to slide somewhat.

So as you look forward, given the changing tenant mix, is there a occupancy cost number that we should be thinking about, or that you think about as kind of the level where this is going to settle?

And to put that in the context, we've seen the occupancy costs come down from about 13% to a little below 12% of total sales.

Well, you added a lot of different metrics in there, Jim.

In terms of spreads, yes, spreads have been compressing a little bit.

Whenever you have a lot of space that comes back.

It's kind of a balancing act between occupancy and rate.

In this year, for example, we've had about 600,000 square feet of nonanchor space that has been rejected through bankruptcy.

So I suspect that rate has suffered a little bit as a result of pushing for occupancy in filling that space.

In terms of the occupancy cost as a percentage of sales.

I think a normalized level is between 12% and 13%.

I'd like to see, frankly, see us push a little bit higher than that as we sign new leases, but the reality is, sales have been outpacing rent bumps for a while now and so that's tended to keep the occupancy costs a bit on the low side.

A second question for me, and that -- and thank you for the information on Forever 21 impact going forward.

Is the $0.08 per share number that you provided as the impact -- the full year impact in 2020, is that net of the re-leasing of the 2 boxes that you mentioned?

No.

No.

That's the full impact, Jim, of the concessions and the closures, without any mitigation from new leases being sent.

So it could be less than that.

And of the $0.08, I don't know if you have this.

But they're -- the 3 stores that are on the closing list, and then there are other concessions that you mentioned.

And I wonder if you can kind of advise us what percentage of the $0.08 is attributable to the closings as opposed to the concessions.

Yes.

Jim, it's roughly 25% of that number.

25% is attributable?

Yes.

Let me expand a couple of thoughts.

So it's $0.08, it's roughly $0.02 in terms of closures and the estimated balance of that is potential concessions.

Again, this is an evolving situation.

This is as we see it today.

But just to frame the outcome, it's $0.08 on annualized basis and we expect roughly a $0.02 impact in 2019.

And then finally on that, one of your peers detailed when talking about the concessions they provided to Forever 21 that under the concession agreement, they have the right, i.e., the other landlord has the right to recover the space from Forever 21 after 1 year of the concession period.

Is that something that is a feature in your concessions or not?

It's a case-by-case basis, location by location, Jim.

So we have some of those, but it's not in every single location.

We do have a right to recapture some of those stores.

Next, we'll hear from Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

I guess just to be real clear.

So the $0.01 hit, I guess, happened in Q4 or Q3, that same amount carries and then kind of the incremental $0.06, I guess, will carry over into next year?

I mean meaning, you've already got $1.5 million of kind of rent reductions already running through the third quarter numbers, just to be clear, is that correct?

That's right, Steve.

Okay.

And then, I guess, Tom, just a bigger picture on kind of the dividend and capital and capital needs.

As you kind of look forward over the next couple of years.

I realize you've been very successful in refinancing mortgages and pulling capital out to fund your needs.

What do the capital needs look like over the next maybe 2 to 4 years?

And what is the Board's thought on the current dividend policy?

Steve, the capital requirements are going to range $150 million to $200 million per year over the next 3 years or so.

And there's a deck that we provided, an investor deck, that shows sources of liquidity to cover that.

As you are probably aware, as I mentioned earlier, we just declared a dividend of $0.75 a share a quarter, and our Board is very comfortable with that dividend level.

So as I said on last call, I'll mention here, we have no intention of cutting the dividend.

Next up is Craig Schmidt, Bank of America.

I was wondering if you could walk me through the difference between second quarter and third quarter Sears development pipeline, particularly focusing on the total cost pro-rata?

Yes.

Craig, the biggest difference there -- you do note cost reduction is, as we look at densification, historically, when we've done hotel deals they've been on a ground lease but we're expanding that approach.

And in the 2 cases, where we expect to do some multifamily residential development rather than to participate with the multifamily developer, we are instead going to ground lease the land to the developer, let them develop.

And we will receive annual ground rent payments including rent escalations.

So that's the biggest change.

Prior to this quarter, we had been considering participating in the development of the multifamily.

Okay.

And then the future phases, I guess, the footnotes is that it looks like there could be something happening in addition to what you're working on at Los Cerritos and Washington Square?

Yes.

Craig.

At both centers, there are some additional land opportunities that we could develop most likely with mixed-use.

Right now, we're getting the projects entitled for this initial phase.

And anything else we do is going to be much further down the road.

So at this point, we think it's prudent to pull it off the pipeline but there is some additional opportunity down the road.

Our next question comes from Christy McElroy, Citi.

Just following up on the agreement to tell -- to sell Tysons VITA.

I believe you're also in the process to sell JV interest in a high-quality mall.

Is that still something that you're pursuing?

And then just kind of going back to Steve's question on the dividend.

I think one of the reasons for keeping the dividend at an elevated level you mentioned last quarter, was not to have to do a special resulting from taxable gains on asset sales.

So is that still the case?

Yes.

As we look at it today, Christy, we are currently -- in addition to our agreement to sell the residential tower.

We're also in discussions on other possible JV transactions.

Could potentially be a mall, could be some of our other noncore assets and those negotiations are pending, so I'm not going to get specific as to which assets they are or any of the other details.

But we would expect some of those other transactions to be closing most likely in the first quarter and in all likelihood, that'll generate some significant tax gains.

So yes, we've got to be mindful of that going forward as well because our preference would be to retain as much capital resulting from those transactions rather than pay out a special dividend.

So it is a policy...

And would it be nonretail -- would these be nonretail assets?

Or are you still looking to sell a mall?

Interest in a mall?

It could be both.

It could be both.

It could be a mall, and it could be noncore, nonretail.

Okay.

And then just maybe you could provide an update on your short-term leasing.

I think you'd expected that activity to pick up to address sort of near-term space backfill?

And does that impact of that short-term leasing flow through your re-leasing spreads?

Christy, no.

The short term leasing, the temporary leasing does not flow through the leasing spreads.

By definition, those spreads are for deals that are greater than 12 months.

But that activity obviously continues.

If you look at our occupancy, it's still at a heightened level relative to temporary occupancy in the fullness of time.

And I think it's 6.4% at the end of the quarter.

So we'll continue to see that.

I would think tick down as we convert some of those uses to more full rent-paying permanent uses.

Our next question today comes from Alexander Goldfarb, Sandler O'Neill.

So 2 questions.

First, on the mortgage activity, maybe because you guys have, obviously, been active with Kings Plaza and some other stuff.

We all saw the SoNo Mall underwriting.

So maybe you can just give us an update on the mortgage market today, how it may have changed in underwriting?

I'm sure it's probably by asset quality.

But maybe you could just give us an update there.

And then, Scott, on that point on Kings Plaza.

I think you said there was $10 million of savings.

If I look in the supplemental, the existing loan looks to be the same rate as the new loan.

So maybe you can just -- maybe I misheard the $10 million in savings or maybe you can just clarify that.

Yes.

Sure.

I'll touch on the latter point, Alexander.

The Kings Plaza deal.

Yes, it's a very similar coupon rate, but it is full term interest-only, whereas the existing debt is 30-year amortizing.

So incrementally, that will generate $10 million of annual cash flow savings.

We deliberately took an interest-only deal here.

We obviously could have realized a tighter coupon, if we had done amortizing.

But I guess, to your first point, the markets were very receptive to this particular financing.

It's a very sizable financing being executed in the CMBS market on a single-asset basis.

The bidding was very deep and very thorough, and we did get some balance sheet interest too.

But given the size of the financing at $555 million, obviously, it's difficult and challenging to pull together a club of that size.

But we do see strong demand for a quality mall debt financing both in the balance sheet arena as well as CMBS.

So the -- that level of interest hasn't changed or abated at all this year.

Okay.

But if you look at some of your less -- lower-tier malls, you think you'll get the same interest?

Are those -- you'll probably have to resize those as those mature?

Well, generally, we don't have a lot of those, but there are some that are coming up.

And I think in those instances, we'll end up getting a little bit more creative.

I do think we'll have credit sources for those to take those out.

I do think they will end up with perhaps a little more structure and some more conservative underwriting.

Fortunately, for us, though, those are more exceptions rather than the norm.

But yes, I do think there'll be credit sources to take those out.

Okay.

And then the second question is on Sears.

Obviously, they remain in the headlines on the viability of the Remainco.

You guys still have some Sears that are open.

Can you just update us how many of those are yours versus Seritage or JV with Seritage versus Sears owned outright?

Yes.

Sure.

We've got 2 that are within the Seritage JV, which are Freehold and Danbury.

We have 3 that are wholly owned, and that's Green Acres Mall, Stonewood and Victor Valley here in Southern California.

Additionally, there are 2 nonowned Sears, which happened to be owned -- wholly owned by Seritage, that are on our portfolio.

But obviously, we don't have control of those boxes.

So 7 in total continue to operate.

Jeremy Metz from BMO Capital Markets has the next question.

Tom, just following up on Christy's question, you mentioned again some transactions in the works here beyond Tysons deal that you announced today.

I guess, any sort of rough guidelines you can give in terms of potential gross proceeds you could be looking at?

Are we talking about a similar level to what you targeted earlier this year?

And then, I guess, the follow-up here would be, you seem to have pretty similar comments throughout the year on a joint venture of the top-20 assets, it hasn't quite happened yet.

You did, obviously, Tysons residential.

And it seems like there's more type of that activity being considered.

So I guess, what sort of confidence should we take on these latest considerations actually happening?

Or should we just take more of a wait-and-see approach from here?

Well, obviously, we're in negotiation on multiple assets here, and it wouldn't be judicious to get into a lot of detail, it would be adverse to our negotiating position on those.

But we're looking at multiple assets including a top 20 mall and some other noncore assets.

So we delivered on VITA here, and we'll give you more details as we can on the others.

In terms of confidence level here, it's a negotiation.

So it's kind of hard to predict.

But it is something we've done many times in our history.

And don't be surprised if you see it happening either in the fourth quarter or the first quarter.

And so would it be wrong to think even to kind of put a rough parameter that the same amount of gross proceeds that were out there earlier this year could be achieved?

Or should we be thinking a lot less than that?

Anything rough?

Well, I'd say the range is on the low side of 100 to the high side of 400.

Got it.

I appreciate that.

That's helpful.

And then in your opening, you talked about the improving environment here.

You talked about some of the good leasing volumes and the tenant sales shrink that you've seen.

As we think about some of this translating into same-store NOI from here, you had the muted level of growth in 2019 you have some of the headwinds that we talked about already in Forever 21 and some others.

So would those outweigh some of the positive lead leasing activity and keep growth more or less muted?

Or how should we think about that?

Well, we're not quite ready to give guidance yet.

You did point out, there's some headwinds.

I think the impact of Forever 21, for example, will be adverse to same-center by about 130 basis points.

The leasing environment has gotten better.

We'll give guidance in January.

We're not ready to do that right now, though.

Next up is Linda Tsai Jefferies.

Yes.

In terms of your comment about moving quickly to release vacant spaces, you talked about how only 3 spaces remain for Charlotte Russe.

Can you discuss what you're doing on the leasing side and maybe what you've changed in terms of processes to react quicker?

And then how are you thinking about those 3 remaining spaces, are those in kind of like less desirable centers?

Linda, it's Doug.

With regard to Charlotte Russe specifically, I did mention it was a big package with YM out of Canada.

And then the other 5 were with other various retailers such as Five Below and a couple of other ones.

With regard to the 3 that remain unleased, we're still sourcing demand.

I think the point of those comments really were to show the ability to react quickly, albeit, not covering all the rent.

These deals are short-term in nature.

We have right to the space.

I think the positives were no cap -- very little to no capital invested and very, very little downtime.

And then in terms of the $250 million to $400 million in debt financing proceeds you're expecting annually.

Does that assume steady-state leverage?

And then if so, what's driving the gross asset value up.

As far as steady-state leverage, I'll just refer back to Tom's comments in terms of what our pipeline looks like and opportunities look like for dispositions of retail or nonretail assets.

In terms of being able to refinance and extract incremental value out of properties with rolling debt.

Really, that's a debt-for-debt transaction, Linda.

Any excess proceeds we take out are merely going to repay our line of credit.

So really, it boils down to our ability to raise some equity through a disposition program.

Well, the other side of that, Scott, as well, is we do expect growing EBITDA as a result of bringing online some of our major redevelopment projects like Fashion District Philadelphia as well as Scottsdale Fashion Square.

That's going to make a difference if the leverage metric you're looking at happens to be debt to EBITDA.

Our next question comes from Vince Tibone, Green Street Advisors.

I just have one, a more quick one on Forever 21.

You mentioned the $0.08 annualized impact on FFO from them.

But what would be the annualized impact on same-store?

I'm just trying to get a sense of any of that lost income will be treated at anchor rent and then not hit the same-store metric?

Yes.

Vince, I would expect the majority of that will hit same center.

And could you just provide like, so what does $0.08 translate to on a basis point impact to NOI?

Are you able to just kind of provide that color?

Yes.

I just mentioned that a moment ago, it's about 130 basis points of impact to same center.

Derek Johnston from Deutsche Bank is up next.

Gosh, a lot's been covered.

Maybe a watch list update given the fallout that we've had in the past few years and even this year.

Is there anything on there that's got you worried?

Does Francesca's ever come up?

And how does the watch list compare to what you're expecting for 2020?

Well, we don't get into the specific names that are on that watch list.

But in terms of the length of the watch list, it's much shorter than it has been.

I mean we've gone through a pretty significant period here starting in 2016, where a lot of names that were on that watch list in the beginning of 2016 have gone into bankruptcy in '16, '17, '18 and the beginning of this year.

So it's a much shorter list.

There's always going to be names on there, but it's much more manageable than it was even a year ago.

Okay, great.

And I guess, just a bigger picture one, right?

So everyone talks about retail disruption and including you guys today in the opening remarks.

I mean, how do you view the current state of retail today and how are the malls going to fit into it?

And when we look at valuations and investor sentiment, where are the pundits getting it wrong right now?

And really, how are you guys really planning to take advantage of this evolving landscape and drive shareholder value?

It's Doug.

Contrary to what you might read or hear in the media, there is significant demand for our shopping centers.

If you could point to my opening remarks, the tenant executions and the store openings are just a small subset of what actually is going on out there.

And I think as our town centers really evolve, it becomes less about traditional apparel and shoes and jewelry and more about everything to everybody.

So as the town centers expand, so do the uses and categories that we're able to choose from.

And if you look at some of the categories that are very active and that we're dealing with right now, you're looking at large-format and restaurants and fitness and theater, entertainment, experiential, DNVBs, the international retailers and then as Tom mentioned, coworking.

So as our centers expand so do the categories, and the depth of activity in those categories is extremely significant.

And just to supplement that, Doug.

If you look at some live examples, take Industrious, for example, we have added them to Scottsdale Fashion Square.

We've got a few other deals with them.

They bring roughly 400 consumers, the right demographic to our malls every day to shop, to dine.

It adds energy, it adds traffic.

Another tenant that we're doing multiple deals with is Lifetime, high-end fitness.

They have, on average, 5,000 members, many, many trips a week, and that's going to add additional traffic and volume to our centers.

So we're really evolving more towards town centers away from just being malls and lots of different uses, less apparel, more entertainment, more food and beverage.

And it's going to continue to evolve in a very positive way.

Our next question is from Haendel St.

Juste, Mizuho.

So Barney's is closing all of the stores, I think, except for one in Boston.

So I'm curious what your plan is for your Barney's Boston, Santa Monica Place, and maybe what potential impact that might have on next year's FFO or same-store NOI.

Yes.

Bill, I'll turn over the leasing backfill to Doug, but these are -- we had 2 boxes.

We had one in Chicago at Fashion Outlets and one in Santa Monica.

These were small-format stores.

They were not anchor boxes, so they're very inconsequential not even really worth getting into and very, very immaterial in terms of financial impact.

But Doug, I'll let you comment on what some of the backfill plans are?

Yes.

At Santa Monica Place, nothing is finalized yet, so I can't really speak specifically to the tenant backfill.

But I can tell you there is significant interest in both the space and its entirety or in a couple of instances, cutting it up into 2 or 3 separate spaces.

Okay.

Fair enough.

And then, Tom, maybe one for you.

You mentioned Industrious quite a few times on this call.

I guess, I'm curious, how comfortable are you, or maybe what level of exposure you're comfortable with co-working as a concept in light of WeWork's, troubled, would call them here.

It sounds like it's something you're contemplating across a number of malls?

And then maybe is that something you're contemplating as well for some of your former Sears boxes?

And if so, can you share a bit more?

Yes.

Well, we've done a few deals with Industrious.

They're a great operator.

They have a different business model than WeWork in terms of how they run their business.

We like what they've done in terms of the synergies and the benefits of Scottsdale Fashion Square.

And we think that use is going to be around for quite some time.

When you look at the locations they pick and they're great locations.

We've got another one that's in the works at Broadway Plaza, that's about 4 blocks from a BART station there and huge demand.

So we think in the right locations it makes sense, and it's very synergistic with other mall uses.

And the Sears boxes, is there a plan to backfill or is that something that you're not comfortable discussing it?

I'm sorry, I didn't follow that question, Haendel.

Curious about if that's part of the plan for some of your former Sears boxes.

Just curious on the redevelopment plans in former Sears boxes.

There's some potential Haendel at one of them.

It's possible at one of the Sears boxes, but I don't think that's going to be a predominant share.

It's just going to be an opportunity we have for a portion of the site.

There's been pretty good demand for that space.

I'm not sure we've got an availability for them, frankly.

And next up, we'll hear from Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

I guess I was just wondering on Fashion District now being open, I think, the contribution to 2019 is relatively small, but considering your spend and the expected return, I think, the expected quarterly NOI contribution is about $3.7 million.

So just wondering if you could go through when you expect to reach that level of NOI contribution, how long that build up could take?

Yes.

Caitlin, I think by the time we get to 2021, that's our first stabilized year.

We'll provide you some more definitive guidance next quarter when we give you our 2020 guidance.

In terms of not only the NOI contribution but also the FFO contributions.

Bear in mind, we'll be taking the cost and putting them into service too, so we'll no longer be capitalizing interest on those.

So we'll give you a good idea of what the contribution is.

So I do think it's going to be a significant contribution to the bottom line now.

But '21 is our first stabilized year.

And we'll now go to Tammy Fique, Wells Fargo Securities.

Just wondering, are you still expecting a 175 to 200 basis points drag this year from bankruptcies on 2019 same-store growth?

And then, I guess, as you think about next year, would you think that would be directionally higher or lower?

Yes.

Sure, Tammy.

This is Scott.

Good morning.

I look forward to meeting you at some point.

Yes, I would say it's about 200 basis points, and we gave a range of 175 to 200 last quarter.

And I'd say it's elevated a bit because of what we've discussed about the one retailer, I'm going to stop mentioning their name.

As far as the impact on '20, again, we'll provide you some more definitive guidance in the next quarter.

Directionally, I think it would be less though.

Okay, great.

And then just curious, Charlotte Russe spaces.

The rents that YM is paying, are those higher or lower relative to what Charlotte Russe was paying.

If you could just give us some parameters around that?

It's Doug.

With YM, we'll be capturing just over half of what Charlotte Russe was paying us.

But again, the notion there is no downtime.

We got recapture rights.

So it's a short-term opportunity.

And within the next 2 to 3 years, we'll have the opportunity to re-let that space, if not sooner.

Up next is Ki Bin Kim, SunTrust.

Can we just go back to the sources and uses topic.

It is obviously, I think, a very important one for your stock and your company.

Can you just recap for me, what percent of your assets are still unencumbered?

And you mentioned that you were looking at selling -- or selling a stake in some noncore -- sorry, nonmall.

How many of those are actually left?

I'm just trying to get a -- just a-big-picture sense of the different levers you can pull.

We'll let Scott comment on the malls that are unencumbered.

But we've got 5 or 6 nonretail assets in the portfolio that could, at any point in time, be candidates for sale.

Obviously, we just mentioned one of them, VITA, the apartment tower at Tysons.

There's also an office tower there.

There's an office tower at Scottsdale.

And at some point, it'll make sense for us to potentially create a liquidity event on the Westside One project where we own 25% of what will be the Google headquarters, but that's probably down the road not near term.

But once they open, that's certainly a candidate for disposition as well.

And Ki Bin, in terms of unencumbered assets, those are -- included retail as well as nonretail.

Bear in mind that we did close on financing of Tysons Tower this last quarter.

So that's an example of nonretail.

I'd say in total, we probably have roughly 15-plus assets or so that are unencumbered.

Generally, those are in the lower quartile of our portfolio.

But it's a pretty easy match if you look at our supplement.

I mean, historically, a good source of liquidity has been refinancing of our top-20 assets where, typically, by the time we're at the end of a 10-year long-term, loan-to-value is probably in the high 30%, low 40% range, and we typically finance at 55% to 60%.

So it's very normal for us to have excess loan proceeds as we do our refinancings every year.

And Kings Plaza is a great example of that, Ki Bin.

Obviously, we bought the asset from Vornado 7 years ago.

Had an interim financing in place.

And just after that period of time, including our redevelopment of the Sears box, we're pulling out an incremental proceed of $125 million.

So that's just one example of the ability to extract additional liquidity out of some of these very, very high-quality assets.

And you think you have that level of liquidity from these assets.

From, I guess, other near-term maturities.

If I look at your 2020 maturities, secured debt maturities, you have Danbury Plaza[Fair], Fashion Outlets of Niagara.

I think that's about it.

You think you're able to extract incremental financing from those as well?

I think we're going to be able to extract incremental liquidity out of our assets and the range that I provided earlier, and that's going to come from existing debt rollover.

It's going to come from other sources too, including construction financing.

I just mentioned our Westside loan that we anticipate to close in the fourth quarter, which will fully cover any remaining costs to be incurred for developing that Google Campus.

So all of that goes into the mix.

But yes, I do think we'll be able to hit those targets that I mentioned in my opening remarks.

And we'll go to Michael Mueller, JPMorgan.

I was wondering, can you walk through how we should think about the co-working transactions in terms of lease structures and economics?

I'm not really going to get into economics of individual deals, Mike, but I will tell you, the way we've structured the co-working deals, they're percentage-rent deals.

Okay.

And what about duration in terms of lease term?

Duration are, I think, generally 15 years.

And everyone, that does conclude our question-and-answer session.

I'll hand back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Thank you, Lisa.

Well, thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to seeing many of you in a couple of weeks out here in Los Angeles for NAREIT.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference.

Thank you all for your participation today.

You may now disconnect.