Live Nation Entertainment Inc (LYV) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. My name is Erica, and I will be your conference operator on today's call. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Live Nation Entertainment's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

今天是個好日子。我叫艾莉卡，我將擔任今天電話會議的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Live Nation Entertainment 2020 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

Before we begin, Live Nation has asked me to remind you that this afternoon's call will contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, including statements related to the company's anticipated financial performance, business prospects, new developments and similar matters. Please refer to Live Nation's SEC filings, including the risk factors and cautionary statements included in the company's most recent filings on Form 10-K, 10-Q and S-K for a description of risks and uncertainties that could impact the actual results.

在我們開始之前，Live Nation 請我提醒您，今天下午的電話會議將包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果有所不同，包括與公司預期財務業績、業務前景相關的陳述、新進展及類似事項。請參閱 Live Nation 向 SEC 提交的文件，包括該公司最新提交的 10-K、10-Q 和 S-K 表中包含的風險因素和警示性聲明，以了解可能影響實際結果的風險和不確定性的描述。

Live Nation will also refer to some non-GAAP measures on this call. In accordance with the SEC Regulation G, Live Nation has provided a full reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures in their earnings release. The release reconciliation and other financial or statistical information to be discussed

Live Nation 也將在本次電話會議上提及一些非 GAAP 衡量標準。根據 SEC G 條例，Live Nation 在其收益報告中提供了與最具可比性的 GAAP 衡量標準的全面對帳。發布調節表和其他待討論的財務或統計信息

on this call can be found under the Financial Information section on Live Nation's website at investors.livenationentertainment.com.

有關本次電話會議的詳細信息，請參見 Live Nation 網站 Investors.livenationentertainment.com 的財務資訊部分。

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Michael Rapino, President and Chief Executive Officer of Live Nation Entertainment. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我很高興將會議交給 Live Nation Entertainment 總裁兼執行長 Michael Rapino。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Over the past 3 months, our top priority has been strengthening our financial position to ensure that we have the liquidity and flexibility to get through an extended period with no live events. Our expectation that live events will return at scale is the summer of 2021, with ticket sales ramping up in the quarters leading up to these shows. Importantly, we remain confident that fans will return to live events when it is safe to do so.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。在過去的三個月裡，我們的首要任務是加強我們的財務狀況，以確保我們有流動性和靈活性來度過長時間沒有現場活動的情況。我們預計現場活動將在 2021 年夏季大規模回歸，演出前幾季的門票銷售量將會增加。重要的是，我們仍然相信粉絲們會在安全的情況下重返現場活動。

Our strongest indicator of demand is that fans are holding on to their tickets even when given the option of a refund. Through the end of the second quarter, 86% of concert fans are keeping their tickets for rescheduled shows, demonstrating a continued desire to attend concerts in the future despite the current uncertainty. Our expectation for robust outdoor summer season in 2021 are also reinforced by the 2/3 of fans keeping their tickets for canceled festivals so they can go to next year's show, along with the strong early ticket sales for the festivals in the U.K. next summer, for example, Download and the Isle of Wight, are pacing well ahead of last year. Between the tickets held by fans for the rescheduled shows and these festival on-sales, we have already sold 19 million tickets to more than 4,000 concerts and festivals scheduled for 2021, creating a strong baseload of demand that is pacing well ahead of this point last year. At the same time, surveys continue to show that concerts remain fans' highest priority social event when it is safe to gather, with almost 90% of fans globally planning on attending concerts again.

我們最有力的需求指標是，即使可以選擇退款，粉絲們仍然保留他們的門票。截至第二季末，86% 的音樂會粉絲保留了重新安排的演出門票，這表明儘管當前存在不確定性，但他們仍然渴望在未來參加音樂會。 2/3 的粉絲保留已取消音樂節的門票，以便可以參加明年的演出，而且明年夏天英國音樂節的早期門票銷售強勁，這也增強了我們對 2021 年戶外夏季旺季的預期。例如，Download 和Isle of Wight 的進度遠遠領先去年。在粉絲持有的重新安排的演出門票和這些音樂節預售門票之間，我們已經售出了2021 年計劃舉行的4,000 多場音樂會和音樂節的1,900 萬張門票，創造了強勁的基本需求，遠遠超過了去年的這一點年。同時，調查繼續顯示，在安全聚集的情況下，音樂會仍然是歌迷最優先考慮的社交活動，全球近 90% 的歌迷計劃再次參加音樂會。

Understanding that it will be some time before we put on concerts at scale, we are innovating to find new and creative ways to help artists keep fans connected in the meantime. Virtual concerts have proven to be a huge demand with fans. So we established a Live From Home platform to provide a convenient place for fans of all types to find performances from their favorite artists. In the second quarter, we had 67 million fans and over 18,000 concerts and festivals globally. Among our highlights, this past weekend, we streamed 150 performances from our Virtual Lollapalooza Festival. Given the tremendous popularity of these shows, we are seeing the potential for live streaming to become an additional long-term component of our concert business, allowing fans in other cities or those who can't attend to enjoy the concert as well. At the same time, recognizing fans want to get back to attending concerts in person as soon as possible, we've launched socially distant shows when and where permitted, included in New Zealand, France, Denmark, Spain, Germany, Finland and as well as cities across the U.S.

我們知道大規模舉辦音樂會還需要一段時間，因此我們正在創新，尋找新的、有創意的方法來幫助藝術家同時與粉絲保持聯繫。事實證明，虛擬音樂會是粉絲的巨大需求。因此，我們建立了一個 Live From Home 平台，為各類粉絲提供一個方便的地方，讓他們可以找到自己喜歡的藝術家的表演。第二季度，我們在全球擁有 6700 萬粉絲和超過 18,000 場音樂會和節日。在我們的亮點中，上週末我們直播了虛擬 Lollapalooza 音樂節的 150 場表演。鑑於這些演出的巨大受歡迎，我們看到直播有潛力成為我們音樂會業務的另一個長期組成部分，讓其他城市的歌迷或無法參加音樂會的人也能欣賞音樂會。同時，我們意識到歌迷希望盡快回到現場參加音樂會，我們在允許的時間和地點推出了遠離社交的演出，包括紐西蘭、法國、丹麥、西班牙、德國、芬蘭等和美國各地的城市一樣

While this is a challenging time for everyone, the live events business in particular, there are a few things that I am confident about. We are well positioned to weather this crisis and we will get through this. When it is safe to return, we will have an abundance of fans and artists ready to join live music again. And Live Nation will do everything in its power to meet our responsibilities to artists, fans, our employees and everyone else affected by the shutdown by bringing back as much live music as fast as possible when it's responsible to do so.

雖然這對每個人來說都是一個充滿挑戰的時期，尤其是現場活動業務，但我對一些事情充滿信心。我們已經做好了應對這場危機的準備，並且一定會度過難關。當安全返回時，我們將有大量的粉絲和藝術家準備好再次加入現場音樂。 Live Nation 將盡其所能，履行我們對藝術家、粉絲、員工和其他受關閉影響的人的責任，在有責任的情況下盡快恢復盡可能多的現場音樂。

With that, I will turn the call over to Joe for more detail on our results.

這樣，我會將電話轉給喬，以了解有關我們結果的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. As Michael mentioned, our top priority during this time has been strengthening our financial position, and we are confident that our actions taking to cut costs and increase liquidity will provide us with the runway we need until the time is right to bring shows back. We have now reduced costs for this year by over $800 million and reduced our cash usage by $1.4 billion relative to our pre-COVID plans. With these reductions, we have lowered the estimate on our operational cash burn rate to $125 million per month and our gross burn rate to $185 million per month on average for the second quarter through the end of the year. At the same time, we raised an additional $1.2 billion providing us with a $1.8 billion of free cash at the end of the second quarter, along with over $950 million of available debt capacity, totaling over $2.7 billion in readily available liquidity. And last week, we amended our credit agreement to suspend our maintenance covenant to a more favorable liquidity metric to Q4 of 2021, providing us with added flexibility until business returns.

謝謝邁克爾，大家下午好。正如邁克爾所提到的，我們這段時間的首要任務是加強我們的財務狀況，我們相信，我們採取的削減成本和增加流動性的行動將為我們提供所需的跑道，直到時機成熟時才能恢復演出。與新冠疫情之前的計劃相比，我們今年的成本已減少 8 億多美元，現金使用量減少了 14 億美元。透過這些削減，我們將第二季到年底的平均營運現金消耗率估計降低至每月 1.25 億美元，將毛消耗率降低至每月 1.85 億美元。同時，我們額外籌集了 12 億美元，在第二季末為我們提供了 18 億美元的自由現金，以及超過 9.5 億美元的可用債務能力，總計超過 27 億美元的可用流動性。上週，我們修改了信貸協議，將我們的維護契約暫停為 2021 年第四季更有利的流動性指標，從而為我們提供了更大的靈活性，直到業務恢復。

Turning to our Q2 results, starting with AOI. Our AOI for the quarter was a loss of $432 million driven primarily by operational fixed costs of $334 million, inclusive of approximately $60 million in benefits from various government payroll funding programs. So with our cost initiatives, we expect operational fixed costs to average approximately $125 million per month for the second quarter through the end of the year. We then had negative $98 million in contribution margin, largely driven by onetime events in Ticketmaster and our concerts business. For Ticketmaster, recording refunds for 11 million tickets across 42,000 shows generated a loss of approximately $79 million for our portion of the service fees. In our concerts business, writing off some costs associated with concerts that have been canceled or rescheduled for 2021, generated an expense of approximately $87 million, about 2/3 of which is a write-off of advertising expenses given the calendar year shift in show timing. Partially offsetting these expenses, we had $68 million of contribution margin generated by business operations and insurance recoveries for events impacted by the pandemic.

轉向我們第二季的結果，從 AOI 開始。本季我們的 AOI 虧損 4.32 億美元，主要是由於 3.34 億美元的營運固定成本造成的，其中包括來自各種政府工資融資計劃的約 6000 萬美元的福利。因此，透過我們的成本計劃，我們預計第二季到年底的營運固定成本平均每月約為 1.25 億美元。然後，我們的邊際收益為負 9,800 萬美元，這主要是由 Ticketmaster 的一次性活動和我們的音樂會業務推動的。對於 Ticketmaster 來說，記錄了 42,000 場演出中 1100 萬張門票的退款，導致我們的服務費部分損失了約 7900 萬美元。在我們的音樂會業務中，沖銷與2021 年取消或重新安排的音樂會相關的一些成本，產生了約8700 萬美元的費用，其中約2/3 是考慮到演出日曆年變化而沖銷的廣告費用定時。我們透過業務營運和受疫情影響的事件的保險追償產生了 6800 萬美元的邊際貢獻，部分抵消了這些費用。

Looking at free cash, we ended the first quarter with approximately $820 million in free cash, added $1.2 billion in cash from additional debt during the second quarter and then ended the quarter with $1.8 billion of free cash. This implies $250 million in cash used during the quarter. As part of this, we had a timing benefit to free cash of $415 million, which will flip back out in Q3 and Q4. Of this timing benefit, $225 million is accrued but not yet paid ticket refunds, and $190 million is working capital timing. This puts our total effective cash burn at $665 million for the quarter. The largest onetime impact was the payment of Ticketmaster refunds, which totaled $110 million for our portion of service fees refunded to fans during the quarter.

就自由現金而言，我們在第一季末擁有約 8.2 億美元的自由現金，第二季因額外債務增加了 12 億美元現金，本季末擁有 18 億美元的自由現金。這意味著本季使用了 2.5 億美元的現金。作為其中的一部分，我們獲得了 4.15 億美元自由現金的時機收益，該收益將在第三季和第四季回升。在這種計時收益中，2.25 億美元是應計但尚未支付的機票退款，1.9 億美元是營運資金計時。這使得本季我們的有效現金消耗總額達到 6.65 億美元。最大的一次性影響是 Ticketmaster 退款的支付，本季我們向粉絲退還的服務費部分總計 1.1 億美元。

We then had our operational cash burn. Starting with our $334 million in operational fixed costs then adding back $54 million of noncash benefits, our operational cash burn totaled $388 million for the quarter. In addition, we had $217 million of ongoing nonoperational cash burn items, including capital expenditures, acquisition activity, net advances and interest payments. These items ran slightly higher for the quarter due to contractually obligated payments for past acquisitions. So we expect this nonoperational component to our cash burn to average approximately $60 million per month for the second quarter through the end of the year. Finally, we had $50 million of inflows from operations and improved cash management.

然後我們就開始燒錢。從 3.34 億美元的營運固定成本開始，再加上 5,400 萬美元的非現金收益，本季我們的營運現金消耗總計 3.88 億美元。此外，我們還有 2.17 億美元的持續非營運現金消耗項目，包括資本支出、收購活動、淨預付款和利息支付。由於過去收購的合約義務付款，這些項目在本季度略有上漲。因此，我們預計從第二季到今年年底，我們的現金消耗中的非營運部分平均每月約為 6,000 萬美元。最後，我們從營運中獲得了 5000 萬美元的流入，並改善了現金管理。

Lastly, let me give you an update on ticket refunds and how's that impacted our deferred revenue. Ticket refunds first. The global refund rate for Live Nation concerts that are rescheduled and are in or have gone through a refund window is 14% through the end of Q2. Festivals have generally canceled this year's events. But for festivals where fans can retain their tickets for next year's show, as Michael mentioned, about 2/3 of them are keeping their tickets. Across both concerts and festivals, we refunded $218 million for rescheduled shows since March. In addition, we have refunded $477 million for canceled shows over this period. Of this $695 million total, $230 million was funds held by third-party venues and $465 million from the Live Nation-held funds. We still have some shows in the process of rescheduling or are rescheduled but not yet offering refunds. If we apply the same fan behavior and mix on these events, we forecast approximately $270 million in additional fan refunds, of which about $180 million will be from Live Nation-held funds. Given this estimate, we have shifted these funds from deferred revenue to accrued but not yet paid ticket refunds.

最後，讓我向您介紹機票退款的最新情況以及這對我們的遞延收入有何影響。先退票。截至第二季末，重新安排且處於或已通過退款窗口的 Live Nation 音樂會的全球退款率為 14%。節日普遍取消了今年的活動。但對於粉絲可以保留明年演出門票的音樂節，正如邁克爾提到的，大約 2/3 的人會保留門票。自 3 月以來，我們在音樂會和音樂節中為重新安排的演出退款了 2.18 億美元。此外，我們也為在此期間取消的演出退款了 4.77 億美元。在這 6.95 億美元總額中，2.3 億美元是第三方場所持有的資金，4.65 億美元來自 Live Nation 持有的資金。我們仍有一些演出正在重新安排或已重新安排但尚未提供退款。如果我們對這些活動應用相同的粉絲行為和組合，我們預計粉絲額外退款約為 2.7 億美元，其中約 1.8 億美元將來自 Live Nation 持有的資金。根據這項估計，我們已將這些資金從遞延收入轉為應計但尚未支付的機票退款。

Now to look at how these refunds flow through our event-related deferred revenue. At the end of the first quarter, our deferred revenue for events over the next 12 months is $2 billion. At the end of the second quarter, deferred revenue for events in the next 12 months was $941 million. Of this approximately $1 billion decrease, $405 million was due to a shift from short-term deferred revenue to long-term deferred revenue as a number of concerts were shifted into the second half of 2021. As a result, we had $486 million of long-term deferred revenue at the end of the second quarter, of which we estimate approximately $400 million will shift back to short-term deferred revenue over the course of the year. The Live Nation concert ticket refunds recorded in the quarter then accounted for $465 million, and estimated additional future refunds from Live Nation-held cash totals $180 million. We then had ticket sales in the quarter that generated roughly $30 million of new deferred revenue.

現在來看看這些退款如何流經我們與活動相關的遞延收入。截至第一季末，我們未來 12 個月的活動遞延營收為 20 億美元。截至第二季末，未來 12 個月的活動遞延收入為 9.41 億美元。在這約 10 億美元的減少中，4.05 億美元是由於許多音樂會被轉移到 2021 年下半年，從短期遞延收入轉向長期遞延收入。因此，我們有 4.86 億美元的長期遞延收入。 -第二季末的長期遞延收入，我們估計其中約4 億美元將在年內轉回短期遞延收入。該季度記錄的 Live Nation 音樂會門票退款金額為 4.65 億美元，預計未來 Live Nation 持有現金的額外退款總額為 1.8 億美元。然後，我們在該季度的門票銷售產生了大約 3000 萬美元的新遞延收入。

Looking at the rest of the year, our forecast for event-related deferred revenue at the end of the year prior to additional ticket sales and based on our projected refund rates is approximately $1.3 billion. Given all the uncertainty in the market and timing of shows, we cannot give you any further guidance beyond these burn rates and refund levels we just gave you.

展望今年剩餘時間，根據我們預計的退款率，在增加門票銷售之前，我們預計年底與活動相關的遞延收入約為 13 億美元。考慮到市場和演出時間的所有不確定性，除了我們剛剛向您提供的燒錢率和退款水平之外，我們無法為您提供任何進一步的指導。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Kathy.

然後，我會將電話轉給凱西。

Thanks, Joe, and good afternoon, everyone. I will review our second quarter and 6-month results and provide updates on our balance sheet. All of our results for this quarter and the first 6 months of the year have been significantly impacted by the shutdown of our shows since mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is driving all of the variances for both periods in total and across all segments.

謝謝喬，大家下午好。我將審查我們的第二季和 6 個月業績，並提供資產負債表的最新資訊。我們本季和今年前 6 個月的所有業績都受到了自 3 月中旬以來因 COVID-19 大流行而關閉的演出的重大影響，這導致了這兩個時期的總和和跨越所有細分市場。

For the quarter, our revenue was $74 million compared to $3.2 billion last year, down 98%. AOI was a loss of $432 million for the quarter compared to earnings of $319 million in 2019. Our operating loss was $588 million compared to $172 million in operating income last year. And net loss for the quarter was $568 million compared to net income of $103 million in 2019.

本季我們的營收為 7,400 萬美元，與去年的 32 億美元相比，下降了 98%。 AOI 本季虧損 4.32 億美元，而 2019 年的獲利為 3.19 億美元。我們的營運虧損為 5.88 億美元，而去年的營運收入為 1.72 億美元。該季度淨虧損為 5.68 億美元，而 2019 年淨利為 1.03 億美元。

For the first 6 months, we generated $1.4 billion in revenue compared to $4.9 billion last year, down 71%. Most of this revenue in 2020 was driven by our show activity in the first 2.5 months of the year prior to the shutdown. AOI was a loss of $452 million for the first 6 months compared to income of $435 million in 2019. Our operating loss was $761 million compared to $148 million in operating income last year. And net loss for the first 6 months was $752 million compared to net income of $51 million in 2019.

前 6 個月，我們創造了 14 億美元的收入，與去年的 49 億美元相比，下降了 71%。 2020 年的大部分收入是由停擺前一年前 2.5 個月的展會活動推動的。 AOI 前 6 個月虧損 4.52 億美元，而 2019 年的營收為 4.35 億美元。我們的營運虧損為 7.61 億美元，而去年的營運收入為 1.48 億美元。前 6 個月的淨虧損為 7.52 億美元，而 2019 年淨利為 5,100 萬美元。

Now on to our balance sheet. As of June 30, we had total cash of $3.3 billion, which includes a free cash balance of $1.8 billion. Our total cash includes $941 million of current event-related deferred revenue as well as $486 million of long-term deferred revenue for events that have been rescheduled more than 1 year out as of June 30. This is part of our operating cash and therefore provides us additional liquidity. As Joe outlined, we estimate that our actions to conserve cash eliminates or defers approximately $1.4 billion in cash outflows for 2020, which includes the cash portion of our approximately $800 million in cost savings, along with a reduction in capital expenditures, lower acquisition activity and reduced concert and ticketing advances.

現在來看我們的資產負債表。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的現金總額為 33 億美元，其中自由現金餘額為 18 億美元。我們的現金總額包括9.41 億美元的當前活動相關遞延收入，以及4.86 億美元的長期遞延收入，這些收入用於截至6 月30 日已重新安排超過一年的活動。這是我們營運現金的一部分，因此提供了我們額外的流動性。正如喬所概述的那樣，我們估計，我們節省現金的行動將消除或推遲2020 年約14 億美元的現金流出，其中包括約8 億美元成本節約中的現金部分，以及資本支出的減少、收購活動的減少和減少音樂會和預售票費。

In May 2020, we issued $1.2 billion principal amount of 6.5% senior secured notes due 2027. As of the end of the quarter, our total debt was $4.9 billion with a weighted average cost of 4.4%. We also have $966 million of available debt capacity between our revolvers and undrawn term loan A. Last week, we completed an amendment to our credit agreement, which amends and further suspends our net leverage covenant until December 31, 2021, if we choose, replacing it with a minimum liquidity test of $500 million, which is measured against our free cash, available debt capacity and up to $250 million of our event-related deferred revenue. We believe that our free cash, together with our undrawn debt capacity, gives us sufficient liquidity to maintain critical operations until shows return.

2020 年 5 月，我們發行了本金 12 億美元、利率 6.5%、2027 年到期的優先擔保票據。截至本季末，我們的總債務為 49 億美元，加權平均成本為 4.4%。我們的循環貸款和未提取的定期貸款A 之間還有9.66 億美元的可用債務能力。上週，我們完成了對信貸協議的修訂，修訂並進一步暫停我們的淨槓桿契約，直至2021 年12 月31 日（如果我們選擇的話）其流動性測試最低為 5 億美元，這是根據我們的自由現金、可用債務能力和最多 2.5 億美元的與活動相關的遞延收入來衡量的。我們相信，我們的自由現金加上未動用的債務能力，為我們提供了足夠的流動性來維持關鍵業務，直到出現回報。

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $55 million, giving us a total for the 6 months of $129 million. We are now estimating our full year spend to be approximately $215 million, down from our initial estimate for the year of $375 million. Of the remaining $86 million in capital expenditures for the year, approximately $30 million is for capitalized labor for updates to our ticketing systems, with the remainder largely venue-related and long-term projects.

本季的資本支出為 5,500 萬美元，這 6 個月的資本支出總額為 1.29 億美元。我們現在估計全年支出約為 2.15 億美元，低於我們最初估計的 3.75 億美元。在今年剩餘的 8,600 萬美元資本支出中，約 3,000 萬美元用於更新我們的票務系統的資本化勞動力，其餘的則主要用於與場館相關的長期項目。

With that, we'll open up for questions. Operator?

至此，我們將開放提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Brandon Ross with LightShed Partners.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 LightShed Partners 的 Brandon Ross 線路。

A couple of questions. First, can you tell us how you're approaching on-sales for 2021? Should we expect a similar cadence to the typical years? Or are you guys going to take more of a wait-and-see approach given everything that's going on? And I assume in your cash burn guidance that you gave, there's no top line in there at all and you're assuming no on-sales in 2021. Then I have a follow-up.

有幾個問題。首先，您能告訴我們 2021 年的銷售情況如何嗎？我們是否應該期待與典型年份類似的節奏？或者考慮到正在發生的一切，你們會採取更多觀望的態度嗎？我假設在您提供的現金消耗指南中根本沒有任何頂線，並且您假設 2021 年不會進行銷售。然後我有一個後續行動。

This is Joe. I'll start these. In terms of the on-sales timing, as we indicated, we expect to be returning to scale with next summer particularly focused on the amphitheaters and festivals first. So I think that we would expect the usual timing of those on-sales, which would typically be for amphitheaters around the end of the year. So we don't expect for the full year the same. We expect it to be more back-half-loaded. But we do expect the on-sales to be somewhere around a few towards the end of the year and the bulk of them as we get into the first quarter of the year.

這是喬。我會開始這些。就銷售時間而言，正如我們所指出的，我們預計將在明年夏天恢復規模，特別是首先關注露天劇場和節日。因此，我認為我們預計這些銷售的通常時間是在年底左右的圓形劇場。因此，我們預計全年不會出現同樣的情況。我們預計它會更加後半載。但我們確實預計，到今年年底，銷售量將約為一些，而進入今年第一季時，銷售量將達到大部分。

Second question in terms of the cash burn. The cash burn is with, I'll call it, relatively limited inflows more similar to what we have in Q2. So we did have some inflows but not obviously at scale or substantial. The cash burn numbers we gave you are assuming the status quo through Q4. And as we move further into it and we have better visibility on Q4, if there is some ramp-ups in activity which would give us both increased contribution margin as well as increased costs, we'll guide you to that as we get closer. But we thought that the more prudent and simple thing to do at this point is to give you the status quo. And then as we're -- as we have more going on, we'll increase both sides from there.

第二個問題是關於現金消耗的。我稱之為現金消耗，資金流入相對有限，與第二季的情況更相似。因此，我們確實有一些資金流入，但規模並不明顯，也不是實質的。我們向您提供的現金消耗數據是假設第四季度的現狀。隨著我們進一步深入，我們對第四季度有了更好的了解，如果活動有所增加，這將使我們的邊際收益增加，同時成本也會增加，我們將在臨近時引導您實現這一點。但我們認為此時更謹慎、更簡單的做法就是維持現狀。然後，隨著我們有更多的事情發生，我們將從那裡增加雙方。

Got it. And then it was widely reported, I guess, in the regs that you tried to adjust artist terms for festivals and were met with pushback. Can you talk about what happened there and what was the outcome? And as you contract for '21 shows, have you been able to share your risk with artists at all? And how have contracts been structured differently for '21 shows and maybe going forward from there?

知道了。然後，我想，在法規中廣泛報道稱，您試圖調整音樂節的藝術家條款，但遭到了抵制。您能談談那裡發生了什麼以及結果如何嗎？當您簽訂 21 年演出合約時，您是否能夠與藝術家分擔風險？ 21 屆演出的合約結構有何不同？也許今後還會繼續？

Sorry, Brandon. I had a -- I think that was my mic. Yes. The press got ahold of a kind of a work in progress, which was too bad because it wasn't meant to be that. We, for a living, are negotiating deals with agents and managers. That's the business model. Their job is to look for competition, and our job is to bid on these shows in different terms for different artists and different times. So the process is always fluid. We're obviously trying to do our side of the negotiation and the agents do in their side. This got -- look -- this looked, I guess as it got reported, it was just a mid-statement. That wasn't meant to be anything more than that. But what we really wanted to accomplish is -- I would just step back and say the industry overall has been amazing dealing with restructuring '20 into '21. The agents, the managers and all the artists all have been very cooperative that -- understand that if you had a show this year and you wanted to reschedule next year, some compromise in the terms would have to be met. And the biggest risk we all had on the promoting side that we wanted to make sure that we could incorporate was the refunds.

對不起，布蘭登。我有一個——我想那是我的麥克風。是的。媒體得到了一種正在進行中的作品，這太糟糕了，因為它本來就不是這樣的。為了謀生，我們正在與經紀人和經理談判交易。這就是商業模式。他們的工作是尋找競爭，而我們的工作是針對不同的藝術家和不同的時間以不同的條件競標這些節目。所以這個過程總是流暢的。顯然，我們正在努力在談判中做我們這邊的事，而代理人則站在他們這邊。這——看——這看起來，我想正如所報導的那樣，這只是一個中期聲明。這並不意味著更多。但我們真正想要實現的是——我只想退一步說，整個產業在將「20」重組為「21」方面做得非常出色。經紀人、經理人和所有藝術家都非常合作——了解如果你今年有一場演出並且想要明年重新安排，則必須在條款上做出一些妥協。我們在促銷方面面臨的最大風險是退款，我們希望確保能夠納入其中。

Now the refunds, as we've seen, have been surprisingly really strong on the concert side. And we didn't know what we were going to head into when we started renegotiating. But we do know on festivals, refund rates are much higher because it's a bigger cash outlet but it's also just a bigger time commitment. They don't tend to be as local as your average concert. So we wanted to make sure going into '21, if you were a headline artist that was going to play a certain festival this year and we wanted -- and you still wanted to play it next year, the 2 things we wanted to make sure that we were protected in and that we both shared some of the risk was a refund reduction and insurance. Those are the 2 principles. If you take all of the drama from the press leak aside, those are the 2 things we wanted to make sure that we weren't stuck paying the same price in '20 if we had a 31% refund rate on the festival.

現在，正如我們所看到的，音樂會方面的退款非常強勁。當我們開始重新談判時，我們並不知道該做什麼。但我們確實知道，在節日期間，退款率要高得多，因為這是一個更大的現金出口，但也需要更多的時間投入。他們不像普通音樂會那樣具有本地特色。因此，我們想確保進入 21 年，如果您是今年要參加某個音樂節的頭條藝術家，並且我們希望您明年仍然想參加，那麼我們想確保的兩件事我們受到了保護，並且我們共同分擔了一些風險，即退款減少和保險。這是兩個原則。如果你把媒體洩露的所有戲劇性事件放在一邊，我們想要確保的是，如果我們在電影節上有 31% 的退款率，我們就不會在 20 年支付相同的價格。

Now if those tickets also backed through and that festival ended up at the same place it was in '20, then we should all share the upside. And every agent and artists and manager have been incredibly accommodating to all the promoters in the business who are all looking for some help in terms of rescheduling next year's shows and taking and refunding insurance and making sure we are clear on those 2 terms. So that was the net result of it all. The rest was a wish list of things as we head into any negotiation. We'd all like to win but those are the 2 points that made sense that were most important for our business and for the festival P&Ls.

現在，如果這些門票也能通過，而那個音樂節最終在 20 世紀的同一地點結束，那麼我們都應該分享好處。每位經紀人、藝術家和經理都對業界的所有發起人都非常包容，他們都在重新安排明年的演出、收取和退還保險方面尋求幫助，並確保我們清楚這兩個條款。這就是這一切的最終結果。剩下的就是我們開始談判時的願望清單。我們都想贏，但對於我們的業務和節日損益而言，這兩點是最重要的。

What about for shows that are in '21 that were not pushed from 2020? Are those contracts being structured differently than historical deals?

對於 21 年未從 2020 年推出的節目呢？這些合約的結構是否與歷史交易不同？

Well, I would say that the -- what the industry did in general overall is every show you basically had, you had the chance to cancel it, right? Every show basically was canceled in some sense, not to our doing. So everyone was in the same boat. You were all starting with a clean slate. So I would say to you, if you had a tour that was on sale and it wasn't doing well, you and the artist decided to pull it down and not go forward with it regardless of COVID. So any tour that you rescheduled, you have the opportunity to look at that deal and at that show and then the number of dates, et cetera, and negotiate with the agent, manager and the artists on what was the best go-forward strategy. So anything -- we talk about 2021 is going to be a spectacular year in the sense of the stuff that did get pushed, you can guarantee was all of the stuff that was selling well and high demand. So that stuff is all going to -- those shows will still be continuing next year. We didn't have anything really on sale for '21 ahead of our '20 season of any substance. We -- 95% of what we were dealing with was 2020 rescheduled to '21 shows.

嗯，我想說的是——整個行業總體上所做的就是你基本上舉辦的每場演出，你都有機會取消它，對吧？從某種意義上說，每場演出基本上都被取消了，而不是我們造成的。所以每個人都在同一條船上。你們都是從零開始的。所以我想對你說，如果你有一場巡演正在促銷，但表現不佳，你和藝術家決定取消它，無論新冠疫情如何，都不會繼續進行。因此，您重新安排的任何巡演，您都有機會查看該交易、該演出、日期數量等，並與經紀人、經理和藝術家協商最佳的前進策略。所以，我們所說的 2021 年將是引人注目的一年，就那些確實被推動的東西而言，你可以保證所有的東西都賣得很好，需求也很大。所以這些事情都會發生——這些節目明年仍將繼續。在 20 賽季之前，我們沒有任何真正的 21 賽季促銷活動。我們處理的 95% 的事情都被重新安排到了 2020 年的 21 場演出。

Your next question is from David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的大衛卡諾夫斯基。

When you look at planning the 2021 concert season, can you talk about how it might look coming back in terms of venues? Joe mentioned before, focused on maybe the amphitheater footprint initially. So how much can you lean into your amps? And can you book artists there that might have otherwise played in an arena or a stadium?

當您考慮規劃 2021 年音樂會季節時，您能談談場地方面的回歸情況嗎？喬之前提到過，最初關注的可能是圓形劇場的足跡。那麼您可以在多大程度上利用您的擴大機呢？您可以在那裡預訂原本可能在競技場或體育場演出的藝術家嗎？

I'll start and then Joe will jump in. I mean first, think about our business. It's 50% international, 50% America. So a lot of what we're doing is -- were going to happen outside of America versus here. The summer season in international is the heartbeat of their business festivals, from small outdoor shows to larger festivals. So Europe will already continue what they do well. Most of their business will be outdoors. The summer season here, we do have the advantage of our 50 amphitheaters, and we think those are going to be at high utilization next summer as well as our boutique festivals. So yes, we would be looking right now -- think that the business has a strong amphitheater festival, outdoor business in Europe and into America. And then most of your touring, indoor stuff will start to ramp up in the fall and to winter.

我先開始，然後喬介入。我的意思是，先考慮我們的業務。 50%是國際化，50%是美國化。因此，我們正在做的很多事情將在美國以外的地方進行，而不是在美國本土進行。從小型戶外表演到大型節日，國際夏季是商業節慶的中心。因此，歐洲將繼續他們擅長的事情。他們的大部分業務將在戶外進行。這裡的夏季，我們確實擁有 50 個露天劇場的優勢，我們認為明年夏天這些劇場以及我們的精品節將得到很高的利用率。所以，是的，我們現在就會關注——認為該業務在歐洲和美洲擁有強大的露天劇場節慶、戶外業務。然後你的大部分巡演、室內活動將在秋季和冬季開始增加。

Yes. I agree. The only thing I'd add is that I think this is a place where our having -- our managing a large number of buildings really is going to come to our advantage. So the fact that we have these 50 amphitheaters, we can manage the process with the buildings. And we have all of that activity outdoor, the same for the festivals, where we have the leases on the land, and we can operate them. And then even the 100-plus clubs and theaters that we have, as one would expect, that some of the lower volume of number of people gathering will happen sooner than some of the large gathering indoor because we have those buildings, because we can manage the processes with them. I think that will let us ramp up faster than otherwise we'd be able to.

是的。我同意。我唯一要補充的是，我認為我們管理大量建築物確實會為我們帶來優勢。事實上，我們有 50 個圓形劇場，我們可以用建築物來管理這個過程。我們所有的活動都是在戶外進行的，節日也是如此，我們有土地租賃權，我們可以經營它們。然後，即使是我們擁有的 100 多個俱樂部和劇院，正如人們所期望的那樣，一些人數較少的聚會也會比一些大型室內聚會發生得更快，因為我​​們擁有這些建築物，因為我們可以管理與他們的流程。我認為這將使我們比其他方式更快發展。

Okay. And then I think earlier, you did mention some international regions with concerts being done with limited capacity. I mean are there other countries or markets where you operate where you think you can get to some level of scale prior to summer 2021 at this point?

好的。我想早些時候，您確實提到了一些國際地區的音樂會在容量有限的情況下舉行。我的意思是，您認為在 2021 年夏季之前，您經營的其他國家或市場是否可以達到一定規模？

Yes. I mean we're definitely -- if we all see that news, the U.S. looks like the one that will be the longest. But the other markets, whether it's Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Germany, Finland, some of those markets, they all seem to be moving along on a good forward path. They've had a very structured plan in place on when small shows can start. They seem to be moving towards those time lines. So although we're talking about a spring return to business outdoors, we do absolutely -- have been operating in 40 different countries, expect certain markets especially from theater up into clubs and into arenas to be happening in some of those markets before the spring.

是的。我的意思是，如果我們都看到這個消息，美國看起來肯定是最長的。但其他市場，無論是澳洲、紐西蘭、丹麥、德國、芬蘭，或是其中一些市場，它們似乎都沿著良好的道路前進。他們對於小型演出何時開始製定了一個非常結構化的計劃。他們似乎正在朝著這些時間線前進。因此，儘管我們正在談論春季戶外業務的回歸，但我們確實在 40 個不同的國家/地區開展業務，預計某些市場，特別是從劇院到俱樂部和競技場，將在春季之前在其中一些市場出現。

Your next question is from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ben Swinburne。

Michael, can you talk a little bit more about artists' appetite to get back on the road in this environment? I know a lot either postponing releasing new music or at least some have. Others, I'm sure, are trying to be sensitive to the economic pressures that their fans are seeing. What are you hearing from artists that you have relationships with around getting back on the road sooner rather than later? And maybe a similar question for you on their decision process on canceling versus postponing. I think there have been some who have decided to cancel in order to help their fans get their money back faster. I don't know if that was something you thought would grow as the year progressed. And then I just had a follow-up on the deferred revenue point.

邁克爾，你能多談談藝術家在這種環境下重回正軌的願望嗎？我知道很多，要么推遲發布新音樂，要么至少有些推遲。我確信，其他人正在努力對粉絲所面臨的經濟壓力保持敏感。您從與您有關係的藝術家那裡聽到了什麼關於儘早重返道路的消息？也許您也有類似的問題，關於他們取消還是推遲的決策過程。我認為有些人決定取消，以幫助他們的粉絲更快地拿回錢。我不知道你是否認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況會有所增長。然後我剛剛對遞延收入點進行了跟進。

Yes. I think it was -- our last earnings call, we were kind of showing you some statistics to make sure that everyone understood that touring had not had a structural change. There was a debate back then whether fans would gather when they got out of this. I think if anything, we learned in 3 months. We got to figure out how they don't gather short term so we can have a better business faster. So I would just say to you that we have been really, really -- we're going to play long on this one. So we have artists with lots of ideas on shows they could do now. We won't be doing DJ sets in the Hamptons anytime soon. We're going to play long and play safe.

是的。我認為這是——我們上次的財報電話會議，我們向大家展示了一些統計數據，以確保每個人都明白巡迴演出並沒有結構性變化。當時有一場爭論，粉絲們走出困境後是否會聚集在一起。我想如果有的話，我們在三個月內就學到了。我們必須弄清楚他們為什麼不能短期聚集，這樣我們才能更快擁有更好的業務。所以我只想對你們說，我們真的、真的——我們將在這件事上長期努力。因此，我們的藝術家對他們現在可以做的展覽有很多想法。我們短期內不會在漢普頓舉辦 DJ 演出。我們會打得長久且安全。

So the artists -- you nailed it. I was talking to an artist this morning. I think as you've read elsewhere, I think you're going to see a creative boom. I saw the record labels this week also down slightly because they need new releases and touring to happen to keep the machine moving. So yes, I think '21, you have artists that are -- all just keep calling me daily saying, "When can I go? When is it going to be safe? When are we going to go? I'm dying to go. I got new music. I want to drop music." So I think this is why we believe long term, regardless of what quarter we exactly scale at, the business will be stronger than ever with the creative push by all these artists who need to get on the road to drive their new music. So '21, '22, we can debate what quarter exactly ramps, but we believe '21 into '22 will be record years with artists on the road who are pent up. They need to get on the road economically, and they're now powered by creative backlog, and they're all waiting. I talked to an artist this morning. They were going to release in November. They're going to wait until March now so they can coincide with a tour scheduled later in the year in '21. So huge demand. We are very gifted in this industry in that we have an incredible supply chain of ongoing creative geniuses who make their living connecting with fans on the road. So that will continue. And we know now from all of the craziness we've seen across America that fans are going to gather. We just got to make sure we can do it safely.

所以藝術家們——你們做到了。今天早上我正在和一位藝術家交談。我認為正如您在其他地方讀到的那樣，我認為您將會看到創意的繁榮。我看到唱片公司本周也略有下降，因為他們需要新專輯和巡迴演出來保持機器運轉。所以，是的，我認為 21 歲的藝術家們每天都會打電話給我說，“我什麼時候可以去？什麼時候會安全？我們什麼時候去？我很想去.我有新音樂。我想放棄音樂。”因此，我認為這就是為什麼我們相信，從長遠來看，無論我們具體在哪個季度擴大規模，在所有這些需要上路推動新音樂的藝術家的創意推動下，業務將比以往任何時候都更強大。因此，“21 年”、“22 年”，我們可以討論具體是哪個季度出現增長，但我們相信“21 年”到“22 年”將是創紀錄的年份，藝術家們都在路上被壓抑。他們需要經濟地上路，現在他們由積壓的創意提供動力，他們都在等待。今天早上我和一位藝術家交談過。他們原定於 11 月發布。他們現在要等到三月份，這樣他們就可以與今年稍後安排的 21 年巡演一致。如此龐大的需求。我們在這個行業中非常有天賦，因為我們擁有一個令人難以置信的供應鏈，由持續不斷的創意天才組成，他們靠在路上與粉絲聯繫為生。所以這將繼續下去。現在，從我們在美國各地看到的所有瘋狂事件中我們知道，粉絲們將會聚集在一起。我們只需要確保我們能夠安全地做到這一點。

As far as canceling and postponing, one of the things we decided really early on was to make sure that we offered refunds on postponed events also. We didn't want our deferred -- we didn't want deferred revenue to have any false narrative to it. And we still -- we are leading the industry. There are many companies that are not giving refunds. I think even ones who've got government money. But we believe that you need to offer the fans refunds for postponed and canceled shows, and we've done that. So we believe our actual number. When we talk about fans holding on, it's real. We make it very easy for you to get a refund right now at Ticketmaster if you go look at our site versus others. We even see a concert sold at Ticketmaster versus other ticket sites, the take rate is higher at Ticketmaster because it's very easy to get a refund. So I believe that the refund numbers are true. They're not suppressed in any manner on our business because we're offering both options. And if you see an artist that canceled versus postponed, it wouldn't be because he wants his fan to get money back. We've offered both those options for any tour. We have -- it may just be an artist that wasn't going to go on -- was going to go on the road, probably an older artist that is looking at it saying, "Maybe I'm not going to run back and try to figure out if May is going to happen right now. I'll take a year off." So you've seen some of those ones if they've said, "I'll just wait." If you're a younger artist tied to more record releases, you're probably really still waiting and ready to go up probably a little earlier given your demo.

至於取消和推遲，我們很早就決定的事情之一是確保我們也為推遲的活動提供退款。我們不希望我們的遞延收入——我們不希望遞延收入有任何虛假的敘述。我們仍然引領著這個行業。有很多公司不予退款。我想即使是那些有政府資金的人也是如此。但我們認為，您需要為推遲和取消的演出向粉絲提供退款，我們已經做到了。所以我們相信我們的實際數字。當我們談論粉絲堅持下去時，這是真實的。如果您造訪我們的網站而不是其他網站，我們可以讓您立即在 Ticketmaster 輕鬆獲得退款。我們甚至看到一場音樂會在 Ticketmaster 上出售，與其他售票網站相比，Ticketmaster 的上座率更高，因為很容易獲得退款。所以我相信退款號碼是真的。他們不會以任何方式壓制我們的業務，因為我們提供這兩種選擇。如果你看到藝人取消演出而不是推遲演出，那並不是因為他希望粉絲拿回錢。我們為任何旅行都提供了這兩種選擇。我們——可能只是一位不會繼續走下去的藝術家——將繼續上路，可能是一位年長的藝術家正在看著它說，「也許我不會跑回來，然後試著弄清楚五月是否會立即發生。我會休息一年。”因此，如果他們說：“我會等待”，那麼您已經看到了其中一些。如果您是一位年輕的藝術家，與更多的唱片發行相關，那麼您可能真的還在等待，並準備好在您的演示中提前一點。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just on the deferred revenue, thank you for all the detail. I may be confused. Deferred revenue for events, I think at the end of the quarter, was about $940 million. And I think you said you thought it would be $1.3 billion at the end of the year. It's obviously the higher number, which is sort of counterintuitive given there is some refund activity expected. And I think, Joe, you said that did not include any benefit from on-sales. So what's the reconciling item? Or did I just maybe mishear you?

知道了。這很有幫助。關於遞延收入，謝謝您提供的所有細節。我可能很困惑。我認為截至本季末，活動的遞延收入約為 9.4 億美元。我想你說過你認為今年年底會達到 13 億美元。這顯然是更高的數字，考慮到預計會有一些退款活動，這有點違反直覺。我想，喬，你說過這不包括銷售帶來的任何好處。那什麼是協調專案呢？還是我只是聽錯了你的話？

Yes. So you heard the numbers right, Ben. Two things. One is we -- as part of that $941 million, that includes $180 million of what we've modeled out as additional refunds that we expect to happen. Because we were able to model it, we needed to shift that out of deferred revenue. So if our model were perfect, then that would have already been taken out. And the second is when we use the term deferred revenue, it is with regards to deferred revenue for events taking place over the next 12 months. That's never been an important nuance in the past because deferred revenue for things over a year ago has tended to be pretty small. But in this case, because we deferred a lot of shows into the second half of 2021, we have about $400 million of long-term deferred revenue that will flip into deferred revenue over the next 6 months. So your $900 million plus $400 million equals the $1.3 billion, rough numbers.

是的。所以你沒聽錯數字，本。兩件事情。其中之一是我們——作為 9.41 億美元的一部分，其中包括我們預計將發生的額外退款中的 1.8 億美元。因為我們能夠對其進行建模，所以我們需要將其從遞延收入中轉移出來。因此，如果我們的模型是完美的，那麼它就已經被刪除了。第二個是當我們使用遞延收入這個術語時，它指的是未來 12 個月內發生的事件的遞延收入。這在過去從來都不是一個重要的細微差別，因為一年多前的遞延收入往往很小。但在這種情況下，因為我們將許多演出推遲到 2021 年下半年，所以我們有大約 4 億美元的長期遞延收入，這些收入將在未來 6 個月內轉化為遞延收入。所以你的 9 億美元加上 4 億美元等於 13 億美元，粗略數字。

Yes. We'll all be experts on this by the end of the year hopefully.

是的。希望到今年年底我們都能成為這方面的專家。

We'll -- and then we'll start selling more tickets to confuse your deferred. So we look forward to that day.

我們將—然後我們將開始出售更多門票來迷惑您的延期票。所以我們期待那一天的到來。

(Operator Instructions) And you do have a question in queue from Khoa Ngo with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）您確實有一個來自 Jefferies 的 Khoa Ngo 問題正在排隊。

If we can just focus a little bit on M&A opportunities, and obviously, there's a lot of distress out there so I want to be sensitive and cognizant of -- with the question. So I'm just wondering what you're seeing in terms of opportunities to consolidate and what your general appetite is to pursue those opportunities.

如果我們能稍微關註一下併購機會，顯然，那裡存在著許多困難，所以我想對這個問題保持敏感和認識。所以我只是想知道您在整合機會方面看到了什麼以及您追求這些機會的整體意願是什麼。

Well, I think we mentioned it last time. I think we look on a global basis as we continue to look to build our global market share. And we believe that over the next 24 months, there'll be ongoing opportunities for us to expand our global footprint. In foreign and international markets, we've been looking to get into and build some businesses around. So yes, we do think that over time, this will provide us some opportunity in international markets.

嗯，我想我們上次有提到過。我認為，當我們繼續尋求建立我們的全球市場份額時，我們會放眼全球。我們相信，在接下來的 24 個月裡，我們將持續有機會擴大我們的全球足跡。在國外和國際市場上，我們一直在尋求進入並圍繞這些市場建立一些業務。所以，是的，我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這將為我們在國際市場上提供一些機會。

Understood. And if I can just pivot a little bit towards your cost cuts. You've clearly made a lot of progress. I believe the numbers were around $500 million pre-1Q, and then 1Q was about $600 million. Now you're at $800 million. I'm just wondering, of that $800 million, how much of that do you think is more structural, more permanent going forward.

明白了。如果我能稍微轉向一下你們的成本削減。顯然你已經取得了很大的進步。我相信第一季前的數字約為 5 億美元，然後第一季約為 6 億美元。現在你的資產是8億美元。我只是想知道，在這 8 億美元中，您認為其中有多少是更具結構性、更持久的未來。

Yes. I don't think we're going to give you an exact number, but there is no question that as we've been going through this process, we've been looking at our fundamental cost structure. And we do expect that we will come out of this with some different organizational structures, a bit leaner, a bit tighter in terms of how we do some things. So we will have some savings. How much of that, right? You expect to see more of that. And 2021 is a year that you're ramping back up. And then as you're continuing to grow, getting into 2022 and beyond, you're then reinvesting some portion of that. But over the next quarter or 2, we'll give more definitive numbers on that.

是的。我認為我們不會給你一個確切的數字，但毫無疑問，在我們經歷這個過程的過程中，我們一直在研究我們的基本成本結構。我們確實希望我們能夠透過一些不同的組織結構來擺脫這個困境，在我們做某些事情的方式上更精簡、更嚴格。這樣我們就會有一些積蓄。有多少，對嗎？你期望看到更多這樣的事。 2021 年是你加速復原的一年。然後，當你繼續成長，進入 2022 年及以後，你就會再投資其中的一部分。但在接下來的一、兩個季度，我們將給出更明確的數字。

Understood.

明白了。

But to give you color, I would add the only gift to when you slow down to this level that you have not had since we launched this company 15 years ago is you build up your own bureaucracy and your own rust 15 years in. And we haven't had the luxury or opportunity to sit back division by division and look under every rock and challenge ourselves on how are we going to go to market differently, what are some new products we need to go to market with and how we're going to operate more efficiently on a global basis. So I would say the part that does motivate me daily is Joe and I and our teams probably have never felt so energized around what Live Nation 3.0 will look like heading into 2021. And that's -- our main obsession isn't just to sit still but to come out of this looking and feeling differently, which obviously will add efficiencies to our ongoing cost structure as well.

但為了讓你更添色彩，我想補充一點，當你放慢腳步，達到自15 年前我們成立這家公司以來從未有過的水平時，你會得到的唯一禮物就是你在15 年內建立了自己的官僚機構和自己的鏽跡。還沒有奢侈或機會坐下來逐個部門，審視每一塊岩石並挑戰自己，我們將如何以不同的方式進入市場，我們需要哪些新產品進入市場，以及我們如何將在全球範圍內更有效地運作。所以我想說，每天真正激勵我的是喬和我，我們的團隊可能從未對 Live Nation 3.0 進入 2021 年的樣子感到如此充滿活力。那就是——我們的主要痴迷不僅僅是坐以待斃但要以不同的方式看待和感覺，這顯然也會提高我們持續的成本結構的效率。

Your final question comes from Stephen Glagola with Cowen.

你的最後一個問題來自史蒂芬·格拉戈拉和考恩。

If we look at the Phase 3 openings across the U.S. and internationally, concerts that are still being put on in various international countries and cities, for the most part, are at pretty reduced capacities. What gives you confidence that the governments will allow live events to return to scale in the summer of '21? And can you maybe define -- like when you say back to scale, is that 75% capacity, 50% capacity in your amps and festivals or full capacity, if that's the expectation? That would be great.

如果我們看看美國和國際上第三階段的開幕，就會發現仍在各國和城市舉辦的音樂會在大多數情況下的容量都相當減少。是什麼讓您相信政府將允許現場活動在 21 年夏天恢復規模？你能否定義一下——就像當你說回比例時，是你的擴音器和音樂節的 75% 容量、50% 容量還是滿容量（如果這是期望的話）？那太好了。

And then you talked on the press release like the potential revenue opportunity -- or sorry, streaming, excuse me, as being an additional long-term component of the concert business. Can you maybe speak to that as a potential additional revenue opportunity? And any other adjacent products or services that you guys may be able to offer during this difficult time to bring in some incremental revenue?

然後你在新聞稿中談到了潛在的收入機會——或者抱歉，串流媒體，對不起，作為音樂會業務的另一個長期組成部分。您能否將其視為潛在的額外收入機會？在這個困難時期，你們可以提供任何其他相關產品或服務來帶來一些增量收入嗎？

All right. Let me -- go ahead.

好的。讓我——繼續。

I'll start on streaming and then work backwards. Yes. I think we have a natural advantage in the streaming business in the sense we have studios called these events and 300 festivals and 10,000 theater and club shows alone. We've been great at the physical execution, but they do provide incredible digital opportunities that we haven't focused enough on. So I think we're deep at work in our biz dev department, and I think you'll see some new products from us in the new year that we think are complements to our core business but great additions. We also have such a huge sponsorship base when you have 900 sponsors. Adding live from home this year alone has been a big part of helping deliver some benchmarks as well as driving concerts. And some of the reduced capacity, although not perfect on their own, they've been great tools to provide sponsors with some value. So I think you're right. You're going to see us launch some new products that we think will be a great complement to our core business.

我將從串流媒體開始，然後倒退。是的。我認為我們在串流媒體業務中具有天然優勢，因為我們擁有稱為這些活動的工作室以及 300 個節日和 10,000 個劇院和俱樂部演出。我們在實體執行方面一直表現出色，但它們確實提供了令人難以置信的數位機會，而我們對此還沒有給予足夠的重視。因此，我認為我們的業務開發部門正在深入工作，我認為您會在新的一年看到我們的一些新產品，我們認為這些新產品是對我們核心業務的補充，也是重要的補充。當你有900個贊助商時，我們也有如此龐大的贊助基礎。僅今年一年就增加了在家現場直播，這在幫助實現一些基準以及推動音樂會方面發揮了重要作用。一些減少的容量雖然本身並不完美，但它們一直是為贊助商提供一些價值的絕佳工具。所以我認為你是對的。您將看到我們推出一些新產品，我們認為這些產品將是我們核心業務的一個很好的補充。

As far as the confidence on getting back to business, Joe, you and I were just discussing that. So you could take the lead.

至於回到正題的信心，喬，你和我剛剛討論過。所以你可以帶頭。

Sure. So first of all, to answer your question on what do you mean by scale, that scale, our normal business model in the summer, we'd be doing several thousand concerts a quarter and for tens of millions of fans. So we're not going to try to predict right now the exactness. Is it 70%? Is it 90%? What percent of last year is it? But it's in that type of volume. So why do we think it's going to happen? A couple of things. First of all, I think the efforts on the vaccine front are moving faster than anybody predicted 3 or 4 months ago. If you listen to the experts, the Dr. Faucis of the world and what are they saying in terms of their expectations where you have multiple, different vaccines with multiple, different approaches and their belief that something is going to happen by the end of the year is one of the vectors that gives you some comfort. The other is the progress being made on the treatments. We've obviously, as a medical community, learned a huge amount over the past 4 months in terms of the basic treatment, in terms of the -- perhaps the potential of antibody treatments, the use of other drugs, remdesivir and others, in terms of helping to reduce the mortality rate of it.

當然。首先，要回答你的問題，即規模是什麼意思，規模，我們夏季的正常商業模式，我們每季都會為數千萬粉絲舉辦數千場音樂會。所以我們現在不會嘗試預測其準確性。是70%嗎？是90%嗎？去年的百分比是多少？但它是在那種類型的體積中。那為什麼我們認為它會發生呢？有幾件事。首先，我認為疫苗的努力比三、四個月前任何人的預測都要快。如果你聽聽專家們的意見，世界各地的福西斯博士，他們的期望是什麼，他們的期望是，你有多種不同的疫苗，有多種不同的方法，他們相信到年底將會發生一些事。年是給你一些安慰的向量之一。另一個是治療的進展。顯然，作為一個醫學界，我們在過去 4 個月在基本治療方面學到了大量知識，在抗體治療的潛力、其他藥物（瑞德西韋等）的使用方面，有助於降低其死亡率。

So overall, in terms of -- as we've talked, we'll let the facts and the science lead us. We've been pleasantly surprised thus far on the progress of vaccines. Probably some of the testing and tracing has been slower but still now is ramping up, so between the testing, the tracing, the treatment also providing opportunities. So amongst those, I think we believe sitting here today that the facts would say that by the beginning of the year, you're able to put on the tickets on sale with comfort, you're going to be able to do the shows next summer. And then for the reasons that we've talked about, we have a high degree of comfort that the demand is going to be there, 86% of the people keeping their tickets to the shows, 2/3 of the people keeping their tickets for festivals that were canceled this year -- that have canceled but still saying they want to go to the show next year instead of getting their refund. So in total, over 19 million tickets for 4,000 shows that have already been sold, which, that alone, what we've already sold for 2021, would make us one of the largest promoters in the world. So all those factors together, I think, is what gives us the comfort.

總的來說，正如我們所說，我們將讓事實和科學引導我們。到目前為止，我們對疫苗的進展感到驚訝。可能一些測試和追蹤速度較慢，但現在仍在加速，因此在測試、追蹤和治療之間也提供了機會。因此，我認為今天坐在這裡的我們相信，事實表明，到今年年初，您可以放心地出售門票，您將能夠參加接下來的演出夏天。然後，由於我們已經討論過的原因，我們對需求的存在感到非常放心，86% 的人保留演出門票，2/3 的人保留演出門票今年被取消的音樂節——雖然已經取消，但仍然表示他們想參加明年的演出，而不是退款。因此，總共已售出 4,000 場演出的超過 1,900 萬張門票，僅憑這一點，我們在 2021 年已售出的門票就足以使我們成為世界上最大的主辦方之一。我認為，所有這些因素加在一起，就是帶給我們安慰的原因。

And pardon the long-winded questions, but if I can just slip one more in. Just on -- can you just discuss the viability of independent venue owners in this environment? If venues do close down or go bankrupt, how do you anticipate that impacting the Live Nation concerts business and also Ticketmaster as things reopen?

請原諒我提出了一些冗長的問題，但如果我能再插一句。請繼續——您能討論一下獨立場館所有者在這種環境下的生存能力嗎？如果場館確實關閉或破產，您預計這會對 Live Nation 音樂會業務以及 Ticketmaster 重新開放後產生怎樣的影響？

Yes. We're -- I would just say to you on the Ticketmaster front, it's a global business with a very, very diverse portfolio, less on the small venue side on a macro level. So it would have limited effect there. Ticketmaster, at the end of the day, has a very large sports business on a global basis in big venues, which is a big part of its business and then large concerts. So I don't think you'll see it there -- any effect there. I would say that it looks like in most of the countries, maybe the U.S. now, there's ongoing stimulus programs in effect and -- that seem to be coming to life for the live business in general, whether it's the employees, whether it's the venues, small or big. So I would assume some of them will have a continued, ongoing support through government programs to keep them afloat through this time. I mean listen, we're all in the same boat. We're all looking to figure out how to get through the downtime and reduce costs. And I think they're banding together, and hopefully, they'll find their support systems also.

是的。我們——我只想在 Ticketmaster 方面對你們說，這是一家全球性企業，擁有非常非常多樣化的產品組合，宏觀層面上的小場館方面較少。因此，它在那裡的影響有限。歸根結底，Ticketmaster 在全球大型場館擁有非常龐大的體育業務，這是其業務的重要組成部分，然後是大型音樂會。所以我認為你不會在那裡看到它——任何效果。我想說的是，在大多數國家，也許現在在美國，都在實施持續有效的刺激計劃，而且這些計劃似乎正在為整個現場業務帶來活力，無論是員工還是場地，小或大。因此，我認為他們中的一些人將透過政府計劃獲得持續不斷的支持，以維持他們在這段時間的生存。我的意思是聽著，我們都在同一條船上。我們都在尋找如何度過停機時間並降低成本的方法。我認為他們正在團結在一起，希望他們也能找到他們的支持系統。

And there are no further questions in the queue at this time.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。