利安德巴塞爾 (LYB) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the LyondellBasell Teleconference. At the request of LyondellBasell, this conference is being recorded for instant replay purposes. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到 LyondellBasell 電話會議。應 LyondellBasell 的要求，正在錄製本次會議以供即時重播。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Kinney, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 David Kinney 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Before we begin the discussion, I would like to point out that the slide presentation accompanies today's call and is available on our website at www.lyondellbasell.com/investorrelations. Today, we will be discussing our business results while making reference to some forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. We believe the forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions and the alternative measures are useful to investors.

謝謝你，運營商。在我們開始討論之前，我想指出幻燈片演示伴隨著今天的電話會議，可以在我們的網站 www.lyondellbasell.com/investorrelations 上找到。今天，我們將討論我們的業務成果，同時參考一些前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們認為前瞻性陳述是基於合理的假設，替代措施對投資者有用。

Nonetheless, the forward-looking statements are subject to significant risk and uncertainty. We encourage you to learn more about the factors that could lead our actual results to differ by reviewing the cautionary statements in the presentation slides and our regulatory filings, which are also available on our Investor Relations website. Comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results using non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and earnings per share, excluding identified items.

儘管如此，前瞻性陳述仍存在重大風險和不確定性。我們鼓勵您通過查看演示幻燈片和我們的監管文件中的警告聲明，了解更多可能導致我們的實際結果不同的因素，這些信息也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。對本次電話會議的評論將針對我們使用非 GAAP 財務指標的基本業務結果，例如 EBITDA 和每股收益，不包括已確定的項目。

Additional documents on our Investor website provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures, together with other disclosures, including the earnings release and our business results discussion. A recording of this call will be available by telephone beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time today until May 28 by calling (877) 660-6853 in the United States and (201) 612-7415 outside the United States. The access code for both numbers is 13735436.

我們投資者網站上的其他文件提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，以及其他披露，包括收益發布和我們的業務結果討論。從下午 1:00 開始，將通過電話提供此次通話的錄音。從今天東部時間到 5 月 28 日，美國境內請撥打 (877) 660-6853，美國境外請撥打 (201) 612-7415。這兩個號碼的接入碼都是 13735436。

Joining today's call will be Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell's Chief Executive Officer; our CFO, Michael McMurray; Ken Lane, our Executive Vice President of Global Olefins and Polyolefins; Kim Foley, our EVP of Intermediates and Derivatives and Refining; and Torkel Rhenman, our EVP of Advanced Polymer Solutions. During today's call, we will focus on first quarter results, current market dynamics and our near-term outlook.

LyondellBasell 的首席執行官 Peter Vanacker 將加入今天的電話會議；我們的首席財務官 Michael McMurray；我們的全球烯烴和聚烯烴執行副總裁 Ken Lane； Kim Foley，我們的中間體和衍生物以及煉油執行副總裁；和 Torkel Rhenman，我們的高級聚合物解決方案執行副總裁。在今天的電話會議中，我們將重點關注第一季度業績、當前市場動態和我們的近期展望。

With that being said, I would now like to turn the call over to Peter.

話雖如此，我現在想把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, David. Welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2023 results. We will begin on Slide #3 with our safety performance. Our workforce continues to deliver excellent safety performance for the start of 2023.

謝謝你，大衛。歡迎大家。感謝您今天加入我們討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。我們將從幻燈片 #3 開始介紹我們的安全性能。我們的員工在 2023 年初繼續提供出色的安全性能。

LyondellBasell's year-to-date incident rate for employees and contractors is 0.16, which continues to be below the rate seen in prior years. Safety will continue to be a fundamental part of our core values as we move forward with the implementation of our exciting new strategy.

LyondellBasell 年初至今的員工和承包商事故率為 0.16，繼續低於往年的水平。隨著我們實施激動人心的新戰略，安全將繼續成為我們核心價值觀的基本組成部分。

Let's turn to Slide #4 and review the new strategy that we launched last month at our Capital Markets Day. As you can see, much work was already underway. Our strategy is built around 3 pillars. We're convinced that the successful implementation of our new strategy will increase our normalized EBITDA by $3 billion to $10 billion by 2027.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 #4，回顧一下我們上個月在資本市場日推出的新策略。如您所見，許多工作已經在進行中。我們的戰略圍繞 3 個支柱構建。我們相信，到 2027 年，我們新戰略的成功實施將使我們的標準化 EBITDA 增加 30 億美元，達到 100 億美元。

This should ultimately result in a more profitable and sustainable growth engine for LyondellBasell. The 3 pillars for growing and upgrading our core, building a profitable circular and low-carbon solutions business, and finally, stepping up our performance and culture.

這最終應該會為 LyondellBasell 帶來更有利可圖和可持續的增長引擎。發展和升級我們的核心、建立盈利的循環和低碳解決方案業務以及最終提升我們的績效和文化的三大支柱。

And the grow in upgrading the core, we are focused on the areas of our portfolio where we have leading positions and competitive advantages that are aligned with our long-term goals. We will reinvest to grow and improve upon those advantaged positions by leveraging our leading technologies to generate returns at scale.

隨著核心業務升級的增長，我們專注於我們擁有領先地位和競爭優勢的投資組合領域，這些領域與我們的長期目標相一致。我們將通過利用我們領先的技術產生規模回報，再投資以發展和改善這些優勢地位。

In the second pillar, we are committed to building a profitable circular and low-carbon solutions business that would enable our leadership in circularity and address the massive customer demand for these products and solutions in a profitable way. We expect this business will generate at least $1 billion of incremental EBITDA by 2030.

在第二個支柱中，我們致力於建立一個盈利的循環和低碳解決方案業務，這將使我們在循環方面處於領先地位，並以盈利的方式滿足客戶對這些產品和解決方案的大量需求。我們預計該業務到 2030 年將產生至少 10 億美元的 EBITDA 增量。

The third pillar of our strategy is to step up our performance and culture. Our company has a well-earned reputation for strong operational excellence and cost leadership. Our goal is to build on these strengths to capture untapped value across the company through modest investments. We have established a value enhancement program that is prioritizing and delivering on these initiatives. Our value enhancement program is on track to deliver more than $750 million of recurring annual EBITDA by the end of 2025.

我們戰略的第三個支柱是提升我們的績效和文化。我們公司在強大的卓越運營和成本領先地位方面享有盛譽。我們的目標是在這些優勢的基礎上，通過適度的投資在整個公司範圍內獲取未開發的價值。我們已經建立了一個價值提升計劃，該計劃優先考慮並實施這些舉措。我們的價值提升計劃有望在 2025 年底之前實現超過 7.5 億美元的經常性年度 EBITDA。

These 3 pillars do not stand alone. The pillars of our strategy are interconnected and reinforce each other. For example, we step up our performance and culture to create value. We will reinvest that value in growing and upgrading our core. Returns from a larger and more profitable core will be allocated to build a more sustainable circular and low-carbon solutions business.

這 3 個支柱並不是孤立存在的。我們戰略的支柱相互關聯並相互加強。例如，我們提升績效和文化以創造價值。我們將把這些價值再投資於發展和升級我們的核心業務。來自更大和更有利可圖的核心的回報將被分配用於建立更可持續的循環和低碳解決方案業務。

And the cash generation from all these activities will continue to provide generous shareholder returns. Our strategy serves the needs of our customers, employees, investors and society. We did not wait until our Capital Markets Day in March to start executing this strategy.

所有這些活動產生的現金將繼續為股東提供豐厚的回報。我們的戰略服務於我們的客戶、員工、投資者和社會的需求。我們沒有等到 3 月的資本市場日才開始執行該策略。

Slide #4 highlights our actions across 3 pillars over the past year. As part of growing and upgrading the core, we announced in April 2022 that we would exit the refining business. We are now evaluating options to transform the facility to serve our long-term objectives, particularly around circular and low-carbon solutions. Last April, we divested our Australian polypropylene business and at our Capital Markets Day, we announced a strategic review for our ethylene oxide and derivatives business.

幻燈片 #4 強調了我們在過去一年中在 3 個支柱方面採取的行動。作為發展和升級核心業務的一部分，我們於 2022 年 4 月宣布退出煉油業務。我們現在正在評估改造設施的方案，以服務於我們的長期目標，特別是圍繞循環和低碳解決方案。去年 4 月，我們剝離了澳大利亞聚丙烯業務，並在資本市場日宣布對我們的環氧乙烷和衍生品業務進行戰略審查。

We are improving our focus with investments in businesses that fit with our long-term strategy. An example is the successful start-up of our new PO/TBA facility, the largest propylene oxide plant in the world over the past month. This project was an enormous undertaking across 2 Houston area facilities. During the height of construction, we had a workforce of more than 3,000 people.

我們正在通過投資符合我們長期戰略的業務來提高我們的關注度。一個例子是我們新的 PO/TBA 設施的成功啟動，這是過去一個月世界上最大的環氧丙烷工廠。該項目是跨越 2 個休斯頓地區設施的巨大工程。在施工高峰期，我們擁有超過 3,000 名員工。

This is the sixth PO/TBA plant built by LyondellBasell since inventing the technology in the 1960s. Our plant doubles the scale of our prior plants, improves yields, increases product recovery and incorporates hundreds of design improvements that save energy, reduce emissions and lower costs. The net result is that we believe propylene oxide from our PO/TBA technology has a lower carbon footprint relative to the most widely used PO technologies.

這是 LyondellBasell 自 1960 年代發明該技術以來建造的第六座 PO/TBA 工廠。我們的工廠將我們之前工廠的規模擴大了一倍，提高了產量，增加了產品回收率，並採用了數百項節能、減少排放和降低成本的設計改進。最終結果是，我們相信與最廣泛使用的 PO 技術相比，我們的 PO/TBA 技術產生的環氧丙烷具有更低的碳足跡。

And our cost of production is the lowest in the world. The new plant was producing on-spec products at rates of 70% or above within 1 month from start-up. I want to sincerely thank our team for all the hard work and dedication that went into this extremely successful launch of a new production capacity. The PO/TBA plant is just 1 example of how we are growing and upgrading our core businesses.

我們的生產成本是世界上最低的。新工廠在啟動後 1 個月內以 70% 或更高的速度生產符合規格的產品。我要衷心感謝我們的團隊為這次極其成功的新產能啟動所做的所有辛勤工作和奉獻精神。 PO/TBA 工廠只是我們發展和升級核心業務的一個例子。

Through our value enhancement program, our team is unlocking additional production volumes across our business portfolio through hundreds of initiatives to increase capacity and improve reliability. In the second half of last year, we established our circular and low-carbon solutions business unit to address the rapidly growing demand for circular and renewable products.

通過我們的價值提升計劃，我們的團隊正在通過數百項提高產能和提高可靠性的舉措，在我們的業務組合中釋放更多的產量。去年下半年，我們成立了循環和低碳解決方案業務部門，以滿足對循環和可再生產品快速增長的需求。

Since that time, we have staffed up the organization and announced multiple acquisitions, partnerships and other arrangements. Just this week, we announced that LyondellBasell will acquire the other half of our QCP mechanical recycling joint venture in Europe. This is another step forward in our work to achieve our sustainability goals.

從那時起，我們為該組織配備了人員，並宣布了多項收購、合作夥伴關係和其他安排。就在本週，我們宣布 LyondellBasell 將收購我們在歐洲的 QCP 機械回收合資企業的另一半。這是我們為實現可持續發展目標而努力的又一步。

We are securing recycled and renewable feedstocks and building regional hubs to leverage our technologies and provide powerful advantages for our comprehensive business model. Last December, we increased our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals to establish a leadership position within our industry by aligning with science-based climate guidance. As part of this, we set a goal to procure at least half of our global electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

我們正在確保回收和可再生原料的安全，並建立區域中心以利用我們的技術並為我們的綜合商業模式提供強大的優勢。去年 12 月，我們提高了溫室氣體減排目標，通過與基於科學的氣候指南保持一致，在我們的行業中確立了領導地位。作為其中的一部分，我們設定了一個目標，即到 2030 年從可再生能源中採購至少一半的全球電力。

In just 10 months, we've announced agreements that will achieve 70% of our renewable power target with approximately 1,100 megawatts of renewable generation capacity. The agreements will reduce LyondellBasell's greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.1 million tons, and that is nearly 15% of our 2020 Scope 2 emissions. We provide an in-depth look at our progress on sustainability with our newly published 2022 sustainability report. And as you know, that is available on our website.

在短短 10 個月內，我們宣布達成協議，將通過約 1,100 兆瓦的可再生能源發電容量實現我們 70% 的可再生能源目標。這些協議將使 LyondellBasell 的溫室氣體排放量減少約 110 萬噸，占我們 2020 年範圍 2 排放量的近 15%。我們通過新發布的 2022 年可持續發展報告深入了解我們在可持續發展方面取得的進展。如您所知，可以在我們的網站上找到。

This report highlights how we can create substantial enterprise value through leadership in sustainability, which is core to our strategy of creating solutions for everyday sustainable living. Our work to step up performance and culture is the third pillar of our strategy.

本報告強調了我們如何通過在可持續發展方面的領導地位創造可觀的企業價值，這是我們為日常可持續生活創造解決方案的戰略的核心。我們加強績效和文化的工作是我們戰略的第三個支柱。

In October, we streamlined our organizational structure to improve line of sight with clear accountabilities and improved alignment across our commercial and manufacturing functions. And at our Capital Markets Day, Torkel described the work that is underway to transform our Advanced Polymer Solutions segment. In addition, we are leveraging the structure of our value enhancement program to drive commercial excellence and improve our customer focus.

10 月，我們精簡了我們的組織結構，通過明確的問責制改進了視線，並改進了我們商業和製造職能部門的一致性。在我們的資本市場日，托克爾描述了為改造我們的高級聚合物解決方案部門正在進行的工作。此外，我們正在利用我們的價值提升計劃的結構來推動商業卓越並提高我們對客戶的關注度。

Altogether, the 3 pillars of LyondellBasell's strategy are working side by side to form a growth engine that captures value and delivers a more profitable and sustainable portfolio of businesses. Let's now turn to Slide #5 to discuss our financial performance. During the first quarter, LyondellBasell's business portfolio delivered solid results, reflecting moderately improving market conditions.

總之，LyondellBasell 戰略的三大支柱並肩合作，形成一個增長引擎，捕捉價值並提供更有利可圖和可持續的業務組合。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 #5 來討論我們的財務業績。第一季度，利安德巴塞爾的業務組合取得了穩健的業績，反映出市場狀況有所改善。

Earnings were $2.50 per share, more than 90% at best our fourth quarter results. EBITDA was $1.5 billion, and we generated nearly $500 million in cash from operating activities. We ended the quarter with $1.8 billion of cash on hand and $5.8 billion of available liquidity. Our company generated 12% return on invested capital over the past 12 months.

每股收益為 2.50 美元，充其量是我們第四季度業績的 90% 以上。 EBITDA 為 15 億美元，我們從經營活動中產生了近 5 億美元的現金。本季度結束時，我們手頭現金為 18 億美元，可用流動資金為 58 億美元。我們公司在過去 12 個月的投資資本回報率為 12%。

The strength of our investment-grade balance sheet and our disciplined approach to capital allocation enable us to confidently move forward with our strategy, while continuing to provide attractive returns to shareholders through all stages of the business cycle.

我們投資級資產負債表的實力和我們嚴格的資本配置方法使我們能夠自信地推進我們的戰略，同時在商業周期的所有階段繼續為股東提供有吸引力的回報。

With that, I will turn the call over to Michael first and then to each of our business leaders, who will describe our financial and segment results in more detail.

有了這個，我會先把電話轉給邁克爾，然後再轉給我們的每一位商業領袖，他們將更詳細地描述我們的財務和部門業績。

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6, and let me begin by describing how we are extending our track record of outstanding cash generation. In the first quarter, LyondellBasell generated nearly $500 million of cash from operating activities that contributed toward our total of $5.1 billion over the last 12 months. Our cash balance was $1.8 billion at the end of the first quarter. Over the last 4 quarters, our team efficiently converted 89% of our EBITDA into cash.

謝謝你，彼得，大家早上好。請翻到幻燈片 6，讓我首先介紹一下我們如何擴展我們的優秀現金生成記錄。第一季度，LyondellBasell 從經營活動中產生了近 5 億美元的現金，這些現金為我們在過去 12 個月的總收入貢獻了 51 億美元。第一季度末我們的現金餘額為 18 億美元。在過去的 4 個季度中，我們的團隊有效地將 89% 的 EBITDA 轉化為現金。

During the first quarter, our cash conversion dipped to 35% driven by increased sales volumes and additional inventory required to serve customers during upcoming maintenance. Nonetheless, we expect to continue converting approximately 80% of EBITDA to cash over the longer term, as we have done in the past. We remain committed to delivering strong returns to our shareholders. Over the last 12 months, we returned $3.5 billion in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

在第一季度，由於銷量增加以及在即將進行的維護期間為客戶提供服務所需的額外庫存，我們的現金轉換率下降至 35%。儘管如此，我們預計在長期內繼續將大約 80% 的 EBITDA 轉換為現金，就像我們過去所做的那樣。我們仍然致力於為股東提供豐厚的回報。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們以股息和股票回購的形式返還了 35 億美元。

Let's continue with Slide 7 and review the details of our cash generation and allocation during the first quarter. The LyondellBasell team remains focused on disciplined capital allocation to provide strong returns for our shareholders. During the past 4 quarters, we returned 107% of free cash flow to our shareholders. This is well above the annual target of 70% that I shared with you at our Capital Markets Day.

讓我們繼續幻燈片 7，回顧第一季度我們的現金產生和分配的細節。 LyondellBasell 團隊仍然專注於有紀律的資本分配，以為我們的股東提供豐厚的回報。在過去的 4 個季度中，我們向股東返還了 107% 的自由現金流。這遠高於我在資本市場日與大家分享的 70% 的年度目標。

During the first quarter, we returned approximately $460 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividends and share repurchases. First quarter capital expenditures were $352 million, approximately $120 million less than the fourth quarter. With a successful start-up of our world-scale PO/TBA plant, capital expenditures related to the construction of the plant will be replaced with growing cash generation.

第一季度，我們通過季度股息和股票回購向股東返還了約 4.6 億美元。第一季度資本支出為 3.52 億美元，比第四季度減少約 1.2 億美元。隨著我們世界級 PO/TBA 工廠的成功啟動，與工廠建設相關的資本支出將被不斷增長的現金產生所取代。

Our continued investments in maintenance and smaller growth projects remain within our plan of $1.6 billion for 2023. Now I'd like to provide an overview of the results for each of our segments on Slide 8. LyondellBasell's business portfolio delivered $1.5 billion of EBITDA during the first quarter. Our results reflect moderate margin and volume improvements across most segments due to improving global demand and lower energy costs.

我們對維護和較小增長項目的持續投資仍在我們 2023 年 16 億美元的計劃之內。現在我想在幻燈片 8 上概述我們每個部門的結果。LyondellBasell 的業務組合在 2023 年實現了 15 億美元的 EBITDA第一季度。由於全球需求改善和能源成本降低，我們的結果反映出大多數細分市場的利潤率和銷量都出現了適度改善。

Results in our olefins and polyolefins businesses benefited from higher asset utilization. Demand for fuels remained strong, and our oxyfuels and refining businesses continued to earn margins above historical averages. Please note that our first quarter segment results reflect the movement of our Catalloy and polybutylene businesses from the APS segment to the O&P Americas and O&P EAI segments, effective as of January 1.

我們的烯烴和聚烯烴業務的業績得益於更高的資產利用率。對燃料的需求依然強勁，我們的富氧燃燒和煉油業務的利潤率繼續高於歷史平均水平。請注意，我們第一季度的分部業績反映了我們的 Catalloy 和聚丁烯業務從 APS 分部轉移到 O&P Americas 和 O&P EAI 分部，自 1 月 1 日起生效。

We filed an 8-K on March 7 that provides summary historical financial information for the 3 prior years. During the quarter, we recognized $69 million in cost related to the exit from a refining business and a noncash goodwill impairment of $252 million related to our Advanced Polymer Solutions segment.

我們於 3 月 7 日提交了一份 8-K，其中提供了前 3 年的摘要歷史財務信息。本季度，我們確認了與退出煉油業務相關的 6900 萬美元成本，以及與我們的高級聚合物解決方案部門相關的非現金商譽減值 2.52 億美元。

As I mentioned last quarter, we expect to incur approximately $75 million of EBITDA impact as well as $55 million of depreciation related to the exit from our refining business during each quarter of 2023. As a follow-up to our 2023 plant maintenance guidance, we decided to pull forward some planned maintenance in our O&P Americas segment to the second quarter. We expect this will result in an additional impact of $90 million for a total estimated EBITDA headwind of $110 million for the segment during the second quarter of 2023.

正如我在上個季度提到的，我們預計 2023 年每個季度將產生約 7500 萬美元的 EBITDA 影響以及與退出煉油業務相關的 5500 萬美元折舊。作為我們 2023 年工廠維護指南的後續行動，我們決定將我們 O&P 美洲分部的一些計劃維護工作提前到第二季度。我們預計這將導致 2023 年第二季度該部門的 EBITDA 總逆風估計為 1.1 億美元，產生 9000 萬美元的額外影響。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ken.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給肯。

Thank you, Michael. Let's begin the segment discussions on Slide 9 with the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment. During the first quarter, O&P Americas EBITDA increased $157 million to $541 million. North American Olefins margins improved on lower feedstock costs, while polyethylene margins increased on higher pricing.

謝謝你，邁克爾。讓我們從我們的烯烴和聚烯烴美洲部分的表現開始幻燈片 9 的部分討論。第一季度，O&P Americas EBITDA 增加 1.57 億美元至 5.41 億美元。北美烯烴利潤率因原料成本降低而提高，而聚乙烯利潤率因價格上漲而增加。

In the second quarter, we expect slightly better seasonal demand leading to modest improvements in volume and margins. The recent start-up delays for new industry polyethylene capacity should tighten markets and benefit margins over the coming months. Costs for feedstocks and energy are expected to remain relatively low during the summer season. LyondellBasell will continue to manage operating rates in line with moderately improving demand.

在第二季度，我們預計季節性需求會略有好轉，從而導致銷量和利潤率適度改善。最近新行業聚乙烯產能的啟動延遲應該會在未來幾個月收緊市場並提高利潤率。在夏季，原料和能源的成本預計將保持在相對較低的水平。利安德巴塞爾將繼續根據適度改善的需求來管理開工率。

We expect to operate our O&P-Americas assets at a rate of approximately 85% in the second quarter. This is inclusive of the additional planned maintenance mentioned by Michael. In February, we announced a new long-term feedstock agreement with Nexus Circular. This will supply LyondellBasell's circular and low-carbon solutions business unit with 24,000 tons per year of recycled feedstock.

我們預計第二季度將以大約 85% 的速度運營我們的 O&P-Americas 資產。這包括邁克爾提到的額外計劃維護。 2 月，我們宣布與 Nexus Circular 達成新的長期原料協議。這將為 LyondellBasell 的循環和低碳解決方案業務部門提供每年 24,000 噸的回收原料。

Nexus Circular's new facility will convert mixed plastic waste into recycled liquid feedstock for our ethylene crackers, ultimately producing new plastics under the circular revived brand. This agreement is just 1 component of our rapid multifaceted strategy execution. We'll now turn to Slide 10 to review the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia and International segment.

Nexus Circular 的新設施將把混合塑料廢料轉化為我們乙烯裂解裝置的回收液體原料，最終以 circular revived 品牌生產新塑料。該協議只是我們快速執行多方面戰略的一個組成部分。我們現在將轉向幻燈片 10，回顧我們的烯烴和聚烯烴歐洲、亞洲和國際部門的表現。

In the first quarter, we increased operating rates after the restart of our integrated cracker in France. European margins benefited from lower energy costs, but weak demand for durable products persisted. As a result, O&P EAI first quarter EBITDA increased $225 million to $77 million. Looking ahead, we expect slightly better seasonal demand in the second quarter.

第一季度，我們在法國的綜合裂解裝置重啟後提高了開工率。歐洲的利潤率受益於較低的能源成本，但對耐用產品的需求持續疲軟。因此，O&P EAI 第一季度的 EBITDA 增加了 2.25 億美元，達到 7700 萬美元。展望未來，我們預計第二季度的季節性需求會略有好轉。

Our operating rates will reflect that improvement, targeting approximately 85% of capacity for the O&P EAI assets. While Europe remains a challenging environment, especially for durable goods, we are focusing on serving customers and optimizing our assets to deliver highest value. As we mentioned at our recent Capital Markets Day, our teams continue to make good progress developing our regional hub model for circular and low-carbon solutions.

我們的開工率將反映出這種改善，目標是 O&P EAI 資產產能的大約 85%。雖然歐洲仍然是一個充滿挑戰的環境，尤其是對耐用品而言，但我們專注於為客戶提供服務並優化我們的資產以提供最高價值。正如我們在最近的資本市場日提到的那樣，我們的團隊繼續在開發循環和低碳解決方案的區域中心模型方面取得良好進展。

Through a fit-for-purpose diverse mix of products and technologies, we will scale this up to become a leader in circular and renewable solutions. With that, let's turn to Slide 11 to discuss the hub model in more detail. The first of which will be located in Cologne, Germany. As Yvonne van der Laan described at our Capital Markets Day, our business model is built upon an integrated approach to plastic waste. This begins upstream with an advanced waste sorting through our joint venture with SourceOne Plastics and partnership with EEW Energy for Waste, both of which focus on recovering plastic waste that would otherwise be incinerated.

通過適合用途的多樣化產品和技術組合，我們將擴大規模，成為循環和可再生解決方案的領導者。有了這個，讓我們轉到幻燈片 11 來更詳細地討論集線器模型。其中第一個將位於德國科隆。正如 Yvonne van der Laan 在我們的資本市場日所描述的那樣，我們的商業模式建立在塑料廢物的綜合方法之上。這從上游開始，通過我們與 SourceOne Plastics 的合資企業以及與 EEW Energy for Waste 的合作夥伴關係進行先進的廢物分類，這兩家公司都專注於回收原本會被焚燒的塑料廢物。

From there, we can utilize our mechanical recycling footprint with our QCP and APK investments, which can be sold under the circular recover brand or move further down the value chain into compounding where we can leverage our APS segment and the newly acquired Mepol Group to create additional value. Alternatively, these waste sorting operations can take hard to recycle plastic waste to create feedstock for advanced recycling.

從那裡，我們可以利用我們的機械回收足跡與我們的 QCP 和 APK 投資，可以在循環回收品牌下出售，或者進一步向下移動價值鏈進入複合，我們可以利用我們的 APS 部門和新收購的 Mepol 集團創造附加值。或者，這些廢物分類操作可能很難回收塑料廢物以製造用於高級回收的原料。

Newly developed technologies such as our catalytic MoReTec process, allow for waste to be converted into pyrolysis oil. In addition to our MoReTec technology, which we hope to FID later this year, we are utilizing long-term feedstock agreements with suppliers like Nexus Circular. This pyrolysis oil from advanced recycling is the feedstock for our ethylene crackers.

新開發的技術，例如我們的催化 MoReTec 工藝，可以將廢物轉化為熱解油。除了我們希望在今年晚些時候進行 FID 的 MoReTec 技術外，我們還利用與 Nexus Circular 等供應商簽訂的長期原料協議。這種來自高級回收的熱解油是我們乙烯裂解裝置的原料。

Most importantly, it allows us to produce materials identical to virgin resins under our CirculenRevive brand. This generates meaningful value for our customers that use polyethylene and polypropylene in applications such as health care, where mechanically recycled plastic waste cannot be used.

最重要的是，它使我們能夠在我們的 CirculenRevive 品牌下生產與原生樹脂相同的材料。這為我們在醫療保健等應用中使用聚乙烯和聚丙烯的客戶創造了有意義的價值，在這些應用中不能使用機械回收的塑料廢料。

Lastly, renewable feedstocks are another sustainable option for ethylene crackers. Through suppliers such as Neste, we are able to process feedstocks from bio-based sources such as waste and residual oils and fats to produce CirculenRenew polymers with a low-carbon footprint. Advanced recycling and renewables are excellent feedstock sources for ethylene crackers. Both are similar to naphtha or heavier liquids, making LyondellBasell well positioned to capture this value with the feedstock flexibility of our existing assets.

最後，可再生原料是乙烯裂解裝置的另一種可持續選擇。通過 Neste 等供應商，我們能夠處理來自生物基來源的原料，例如廢油和殘油和脂肪，以生產具有低碳足蹟的 CirculenRenew 聚合物。先進的回收和可再生能源是乙烯裂解裝置的極佳原料來源。兩者都類似於石腦油或更重的液體，使 LyondellBasell 能夠很好地利用我們現有資產的原料靈活性來獲取這一價值。

All of this is already underway, and our hub model will allow us to scale globally and reach at least 2 million tons per year of recycled and renewable based products by 2030. Since 2019, we have sold nearly 200,000 tons of products. We are convinced that LyondellBasell is uniquely positioned to be the supplier of choice for our customers and brand owners who want to partner with us to lower their greenhouse gas footprint and make their products more circular. We see tremendous value across the entire value chain, and we will continue building on our momentum.

所有這一切都已經在進行中，我們的樞紐模型將使我們能夠在全球範圍內擴展，並在 2030 年之前達到每年至少 200 萬噸的回收和可再生產品。自 2019 年以來，我們已售出近 20 萬噸產品。我們相信，LyondellBasell 具有獨特的優勢，可以成為我們的客戶和品牌所有者的首選供應商，他們希望與我們合作，以降低他們的溫室氣體足跡，並使他們的產品更加循環。我們看到了整個價值鏈的巨大價值，我們將繼續保持我們的勢頭。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kim.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給金。

Thank you, Ken. Please turn to Slide 12 as we look at the Intermediates and Derivatives segment. EBITDA for the segment increased by $135 million in the first quarter to $426 million. Propylene oxide volumes increased with higher operating rates after planned downtime last quarter while margins decreased on continued weak demand for durable goods. Oxyfuel margins remained strong, supported by low inventories and steady demand for gasoline. Overall, we operated our assets at approximately 85% for the quarter.

謝謝你，肯。當我們查看中間體和衍生物部分時，請轉到幻燈片 12。第一季度該部門的 EBITDA 增加了 1.35 億美元，達到 4.26 億美元。在上個季度計劃停機後，環氧丙烷產量隨著開工率的提高而增加，而利潤率則因耐用品需求持續疲軟而下降。在低庫存和穩定的汽油需求的支持下，富氧燃燒的利潤率依然強勁。總體而言，本季度我們的資產運營率約為 85%。

As highlighted at our Capital Markets Day in March, we have successfully started up our new PO/TBA plant, which is the largest propylene oxide plant in the world. This start-up was many years in the making, and I am incredibly proud of what our team has accomplished. In line with the guidance from last quarter, a heavy planned maintenance schedule across our propylene oxide assets in 2023 will largely offset the benefits from this new volume during the first year of operations.

正如我們在三月份的資本市場日所強調的那樣，我們已經成功啟動了我們新的 PO/TBA 工廠，這是世界上最大的環氧丙烷工廠。這家初創公司籌備多年，我為我們團隊所取得的成就感到無比自豪。根據上一季度的指導，我們計劃在 2023 年對環氧丙烷資產進行大量維護計劃，這將在很大程度上抵消運營第一年這一新產量帶來的好處。

In 2023, we'll be focused on driving safety, quality and reliability as we fine-tune the operation of this new PO/TBA plant and ramp up cash generation in 2024. For the second quarter, we expect to run our global IND assets at approximately 80% of capacity in line with demand.

到 2023 年，我們將重點關注駕駛安全、質量和可靠性，因為我們將微調這個新的 PO/TBA 工廠的運營，並在 2024 年增加現金產生。第二季度，我們預計將運營我們的全球 IND 資產大約 80% 的容量滿足需求。

Our new PO/TBA capacity is included in the calculation of our I&D segment operating rates beginning with the second quarter. Now let's turn to Slide 13 and discuss the results of the refining segment. First quarter EBITDA of $315 million was fairly comparable with the prior quarter, which benefited from a $40 million in tailwinds from a LIFO inventory valuation. In the first quarter, the Maya 2-1-1 spread remained stable at about $49 per barrel.

從第二季度開始，我們新的 PO/TBA 產能包含在我們 I&D 部門開工率的計算中。現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 13 並討論精煉部分的結果。第一季度 3.15 億美元的 EBITDA 與上一季度相當，上一季度受益於 LIFO 庫存估值帶來的 4000 萬美元順風。第一季度，瑪雅 2-1-1 價差穩定在每桶 49 美元左右。

Industry inventories for fuels remain low following winter weather and significant maintenance, coupled with stable demand. We operated the refinery at approximately 85% of capacity with an average crude rate of 226,000 barrels per day. In the near term, we expect the Maya 2-1-1 spreads to moderate due to declining diesel spreads while remaining well above historical averages. We plan to operate the refinery at approximately 95% of capacity in the second quarter.

在冬季天氣和大量維護以及穩定的需求之後，燃料的行業庫存仍然很低。我們以大約 85% 的產能運營煉油廠，平均原油產量為每天 226,000 桶。在短期內，我們預計 Maya 2-1-1 價差將因柴油價差下降而緩和，同時仍遠高於歷史平均水平。我們計劃在第二季度以大約 95% 的產能運營煉油廠。

We remain committed to safe operation of these assets with a focus on high reliability to capitalize on current market conditions. As Peter mentioned earlier, we have started the evaluation of several projects to transform the site to fit with our circular and low-carbon solution strategy.

我們仍然致力於這些資產的安全運營，重點是高可靠性，以利用當前的市場條件。正如彼得之前提到的，我們已經開始評估幾個改造場地的項目，以適應我們的循環和低碳解決方案戰略。

With that, I will turn the call over to Torkel.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給托克爾。

Thank you, Kim. Now let's review the first quarter results on Slide 14. First quarter EBITDA increased $52 million to $26 million. Margins for the polypropylene compounding business improved as product sales prices captured a higher share of rising raw material prices. All of our business areas saw moderately higher demand. We expect demand will moderately improve across most APS businesses during the second quarter.

謝謝你，金。現在讓我們回顧幻燈片 14 上的第一季度業績。第一季度 EBITDA 增加 5200 萬美元至 2600 萬美元。由於產品銷售價格在原材料價格上漲中所佔份額增加，聚丙烯複合業務的利潤率有所提高。我們所有業務領域的需求都略有增加。我們預計第二季度大多數 APS 業務的需求將適度改善。

After spending time in this role, I've met with many customers who have told us how much they value our products and innovations. We're working every day to improve our service levels and meet our customers' needs to transform this business.

在擔任這個職位一段時間後，我遇到了許多客戶，他們告訴我們他們非常重視我們的產品和創新。我們每天都在努力提高我們的服務水平並滿足客戶對業務轉型的需求。

As we mentioned last quarter, we have reshaped APS by moving the Catalloy and polybutene businesses into the O&P Americas and O&P EAI segments, which will allow us to focus on what is core to APS, serving customers with tailored solutions. To further support the growing and shaping of APS' core, we announced in March that we have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Mepol Group.

正如我們上個季度提到的那樣，我們通過將 Catalloy 和聚丁烯業務轉移到 O&P Americas 和 O&P EAI 細分市場來重塑 APS，這將使我們能夠專注於 APS 的核心，為客戶提供量身定制的解決方案。為了進一步支持 APS 核心業務的發展和塑造，我們在 3 月份宣布，我們已達成收購 Mepol Group 的最終協議。

Mepol's expertise in sustainable compounding fits perfectly into our overall strategy to be a leading provider of sustainable solutions. We are confident that our APS platform has significant potential. While our team will have some autonomy to install a more customer-centric business model, we will also be highly accountable for delivering value from our initiatives.

Mepol 在可持續複合方面的專業知識完全符合我們成為可持續解決方案領先供應商的總體戰略。我們相信我們的 APS 平台具有巨大的潛力。雖然我們的團隊將擁有一定的自主權來建立更以客戶為中心的業務模式，但我們也將對從我們的計劃中創造價值負起高度責任。

With that, I will return the call back to Peter.

有了這個，我會把電話回給彼得。

Thank you, Torkel. Please turn to Slide 15, and I will discuss the results for the Technology segment on behalf of Jim Seward. First quarter EBITDA of $73 million reflected stable catalyst volumes and lower licensing revenue. In the second quarter, we expect that licensing revenue and catalyst volumes will be moderately better.

謝謝你，托克爾。請轉到幻燈片 15，我將代表 Jim Seward 討論技術部分的結果。第一季度 EBITDA 為 7300 萬美元，反映了穩定的催化劑銷量和較低的許可收入。在第二季度，我們預計許可收入和催化劑數量將略有好轉。

Nonetheless, we estimate that second quarter technology segment results will be similar to the first quarter. As Ken discussed, we believe that LyondellBasell's circular and low-carbon solutions business has a strategic advantage with our integrated hub solution. A key enabler to scale our hubs is LyondellBasell's proprietary MoReTec advanced catalytic-recycling technology.

儘管如此，我們估計第二季度技術部門的業績將與第一季度相似。正如 Ken 所討論的那樣，我們相信 LyondellBasell 的循環和低碳解決方案業務通過我們的集成樞紐解決方案具有戰略優勢。 LyondellBasell 專有的 MoReTec 高級催化回收技術是擴大我們的樞紐規模的關鍵推動因素。

Engineering work for our first commercial scale plant is underway. We hope to provide you with further updates and reach an investment decision for a commercial scale plant during the fourth quarter of this year.

我們的第一個商業規模工廠的工程工作正在進行中。我們希望在今年第四季度為您提供進一步的更新並做出商業規模工廠的投資決定。

Let me now summarize our first quarter and the outlook for our company with Slide 16. Our first quarter results illustrate how our teams capturing value through our new strategy with help from moderately improving market conditions.

現在讓我用幻燈片 16 總結我們的第一季度和我們公司的前景。我們的第一季度結果說明了我們的團隊如何在市場條件適度改善的幫助下通過我們的新戰略獲取價值。

LyondellBasell's foundational commitment to safety remains at the core of our culture and will continue to be a critical enabler for our future success. Our O&P businesses benefited from moderately improving demand. Our oxyfuels and refining businesses continue to see margins above historical averages, supported by low inventories and steady demand.

LyondellBasell 對安全的基本承諾仍然是我們文化的核心，並將繼續成為我們未來成功的關鍵推動力。我們的 O&P 業務受益於適度改善的需求。在低庫存和穩定需求的支持下，我們的富氧燃燒和煉油業務的利潤率繼續高於歷史平均水平。

During the first quarter, we returned approximately $460 million in dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating our commitment to shareholder returns. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we anticipate modest seasonal demand improvements. North American polyethylene margins should benefit from delays in industry capacity additions.

第一季度，我們返還了約 4.6 億美元的股息和股票回購，表明了我們對股東回報的承諾。展望第二季度，我們預計季節性需求會適度改善。北美聚乙烯利潤率應受益於行業產能增加的延遲。

In response, we're aligning our operating rates to match market demand. We remain watchful for market improvements in China as stronger economic activity could help drive recovery in global markets during the second half of the year.

作為回應，我們正在調整我們的開工率以適應市場需求。我們繼續關注中國市場的改善，因為更強勁的經濟活動可能有助於推動下半年全球市場的複蘇。

LyondellBasell is focused on serving rapidly growing demand for our valuable Circulen products from our circular and low-carbon solutions business. We're entering multiple arrangements to secure plastic waste feedstocks and build out the regional apps that will drive our advantage. And we are making progress on our climate targets.

LyondellBasell 專注於滿足我們循環和低碳解決方案業務對我們寶貴的 Circulen 產品快速增長的需求。我們正在進行多項安排，以確保塑料廢物原料的安全，並構建可推動我們優勢的區域應用程序。我們正在實現我們的氣候目標。

In less than 1 year since signing our first power purchase agreements, we achieved 70% of our target to procure at least half of global electricity from renewable sources by 2030. At our Capital Markets Day last month, I hope you sensed our excitement around our new forward strategy. Last week, we gathered 150 of our global leaders to provide feedback and align on implementation.

在簽署第一份購電協議後不到一年的時間裡，我們實現了 70% 的目標，即到 2030 年從可再生能源中採購至少一半的全球電力。在上個月的資本市場日，我希望您能感受到我們對我們的興奮新的前進戰略。上週，我們召集了 150 位全球領導者提供反饋並就實施達成一致。

The energy and enthusiasm around our initial progress is incredible from our frontline operators and manufacturing to engineers developing innovative solutions for our customers to 3 pillars of our strategy for providing focus and clarity for our progress to capture incremental value and deliver a more profitable and sustainable growth engine at LyondellBasell.

從我們的一線運營商和製造商到為我們的客戶開發創新解決方案的工程師，再到我們戰略的 3 個支柱，為我們的進展提供重點和清晰度以獲取增量價值並實現更有利可圖和可持續的增長，圍繞我們初步進展的能量和熱情是令人難以置信的LyondellBasell 的發動機。

We're now pleased to take your questions.

我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. This FID that you're targeting at the end of the year for the MoReTec technology, is it fair to assume that you're thinking about building this at the refinery site given you have all these hydrotreaters available that could be used to treat the pyrolysis oil, you could also use the hydrotreaters to make your own renewable feedstock rather than buying it from Neste and you will need a lot of hydrogen to do all this. Could this site become a hydrogen hub as well and get some DOE funding?

是的。您在年底針對 MoReTec 技術的 FID，假設您正在考慮在煉油廠建造它是否公平，因為您擁有所有這些可用於處理熱解的加氫處理器油，您還可以使用加氫處理器製造您自己的可再生原料，而不是從 Neste 購買，您將需要大量的氫氣來完成這一切。該站點是否也可以成為氫樞紐並獲得能源部的一些資金？

Steve, this is Peter. Thank you for your question. Of course, as usual, very good question. The first MoReTec industrial scale deployments that we are referring to the -- we plan to have an FID until the end of this year will be in the Cologne hub. But of course, we're also looking at the Houston hub, and I have alluded to that before, that we are looking at the refinery to also deploy an investment in terms of MoReTec, our own technology.

史蒂夫，這是彼得。謝謝你的問題。當然，像往常一樣，很好的問題。我們所指的第一個 MoReTec 工業規模部署——我們計劃在今年年底之前在科隆中心進行 FID。但當然，我們也在關注休斯頓樞紐，我之前曾提到過，我們正在關注煉油廠，以部署我們自己的技術 MoReTec 方面的投資。

So -- but the first one, to be very clear, will be in Cologne. And rightfully so, I mean, as you recognized, if we do a MoReTec investment in the Houston hub, we can leverage upon the hydrotreaters and hydrocrackers that we have there to upgrade a plastic oil and then feed the plastic oil through the pipeline to our Channelview cracker. So it's an ideal situation that we have there. So that's the focus that we currently have. It's all around our more advanced recycling technology.

所以 - 但非常明確的是，第一個將在科隆舉行。沒錯，我的意思是，正如你所認識到的，如果我們在休斯頓中心進行 MoReTec 投資，我們可以利用我們在那裡的加氫處理器和加氫裂化裝置來升級塑料油，然後通過管道將塑料油輸送到我們的Channelview 破解器。所以這是我們在那裡的理想情況。這就是我們目前的重點。這一切都圍繞著我們更先進的回收技術。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

What are the total cash costs for shutting down the refinery and remediating whatever needs to be remediated if there is something.

關閉煉油廠和修復任何需要修復的東西（如果有的話）的總現金成本是多少？

Jeff, it's Michael. Let me help you out with that. So I'll refer you back to an 8-K that we issued last year. But we anticipate a number of charges. So there's charges associated with the existing operating lease assets. So this would include like tanks and other infrastructure. There's asset decommissioning cost, so like things like tank cleaning and then personnel-related costs as well and then some miscellaneous charges.

傑夫，是邁克爾。讓我幫你解決這個問題。因此，我將向您推薦我們去年發布的 8-K。但我們預計會有一些指控。因此，存在與現有經營租賃資產相關的費用。所以這將包括像坦克和其他基礎設施。有資產退役成本，比如油罐清潔，然後是人員相關成本，然後是一些雜項費用。

So our total cost estimate -- and this is still a good estimate today. We had given a range of about $600 million to $900 million. It's unlikely and this is happening, that they're not going to be recognized all at once, so we've been incurring some cash and some noncash costs, now largely noncash this year, and they'll continue into 2024 as well. And you're seeing charges per quarter right now of about $85 million, similar to what we had seen in 2023 as well.

所以我們的總成本估算——今天這仍然是一個很好的估算。我們提供了大約 6 億至 9 億美元的資金。這不太可能而且正在發生，它們不會一下子得到認可，所以我們一直在產生一些現金和一些非現金成本，今年現在主要是非現金成本，它們也將持續到 2024 年。你現在看到每季度的費用約為 8500 萬美元，這也與我們在 2023 年看到的情況類似。

On the fourth quarter, we did raise our estimate on asset decommissioning costs slightly, and you've seen some incremental depreciation related to that. But that's within our $1 billion for estimate for the full year. And then don't forget, there will be a meaningful working capital release when we shut down the refinery -- it's on the order of about $700 million is what we're expecting.

在第四季度，我們確實略微提高了對資產退役成本的估計，你已經看到與此相關的一些增量折舊。但這在我們估計的全年 10 億美元之內。然後不要忘記，當我們關閉煉油廠時，將會有一筆有意義的營運資金釋放——我們期望的是大約 7 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mike Sison 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

Nice start to the year. In terms of fundamental polyethylene demand, where do you think we're running at here in the first quarter, heading into the second quarter and how do you think it holds up in the second half of the year?

開年不錯。就基本的聚乙烯需求而言，您認為我們在第一季度和第二季度的運行情況如何？您認為它在下半年的表現如何？

Yes, Mike, I'm going to give that to Ken to answer that question. The first thing that I want to say is our sales teams as well as the operations team, they have done an excellent job in navigating very well both in polyethylene as well as in polypropylene through challenging market environments. And the result is, of course, what you see then on the EBITDA in Q1. Ken?

是的，邁克，我要把它交給肯來回答這個問題。我想說的第一件事是我們的銷售團隊和運營團隊，他們在充滿挑戰的市場環境中出色地駕馭了聚乙烯和聚丙烯。結果當然就是您在第一季度的 EBITDA 上看到的結果。肯？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. We're seeing modest improvements from Q4. Q4 being very low, and we saw a lot of destocking, especially in Europe in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝，邁克。我們看到第四季度略有改善。第四季度非常低，我們看到大量去庫存，尤其是第四季度在歐洲。

So I'd say overall demand is going to modestly improve going into Q2. We typically see some seasonal improvement. We have begun to see some improvement in China. The consumer is sort of waking up there.

所以我想說進入第二季度整體需求將適度改善。我們通常會看到一些季節性的改善。我們已經開始看到中國有所改善。消費者正在那裡醒來。

So my expectation is that as we get into the second half of the year, that's probably going to be the biggest opportunity for improvement in the market, is going to be how quickly China comes back. I don't think in Europe and in the U.S., you're going to see anything different than the normal kind of Q2, Q3 peak and then a decline in Q4, which is normal for those markets. But we should see Asia performing stronger in the second half.

所以我的預期是，隨著我們進入今年下半年，這可能是市場改善的最大機會，將是中國回歸的速度。我不認為在歐洲和美國，你會看到與正常的第二季度、第三季度的峰值和第四季度的下降有什麼不同，這對這些市場來說是正常的。但我們應該看到亞洲在下半年表現更強勁。

And I'll hold that in the context, of course, if you just look at Eurozone GDP first quarter, that was practically no growth, okay, not a deep recession, but on the other hand side, I mean, 0.1% growth. And needless to say, as you will hear it all over the place is that this is especially in durable goods that the market continues to see a very conservative consumer behavior.

當然，我認為在這樣的背景下，如果你只看歐元區第一季度的 GDP，那幾乎沒有增長，好吧，不是深度衰退，但另一方面，我的意思是，增長 0.1%。不用說，你會到處聽到這樣的說法，尤其是在耐用品領域，市場繼續看到非常保守的消費者行為。

Our next question comes from the line of Duffy Fischer with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Duffy Fischer 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

I was just trying to figure out in your PO business, your non -- other than the new plant you're starting up, roughly, what are you running the rest of your fleet at? And then what do we need to see for PO to get healthier? Do we need to see some industry shutdowns? Or do we just need to see business come back to a normal level and the profitability levels per unit can kind of come back to where they were maybe 1 year, 1.5 years ago. But just what's your outlook there for the rest of the year, if you would produce?

我只是想弄清楚你的 PO 業務，你的非 - 除了你正在啟動的新工廠，大致上，你在運行其餘的機隊是什麼？那麼，為了讓 PO 變得更健康，我們需要看到什麼？我們是否需要看到一些行業停工？或者我們是否只需要看到業務恢復到正常水平，每單位的盈利水平可以回到 1 年、1.5 年前的水平。但是，如果你願意生產，你對今年餘下時間的前景如何？

Thank you, Duffy. Very good question. And that allows me again to repeat what a huge success that is to be able to start up that PO/TBA plants, I mean the largest that is in the entire industry, on time, safely and is now ramping up just like inset to demonstrate, I mean maximum capacity in that plant.

謝謝你，達菲。很好的問題。這讓我再次重申能夠啟動 PO/TBA 工廠是多麼巨大的成功，我的意思是整個行業中最大的工廠，準時、安全並且現在正像插圖一樣加速生產以證明，我的意思是該工廠的最大容量。

So really, I mean, an incredible -- and I must say, even when I compare that to my previous assignments and other companies, I've never seen it going that smooth. So really great job by the entire team, which gives you given Kim some time to answer the question.

所以真的，我的意思是，一個令人難以置信的 - 我必須說，即使我將它與我以前的任務和其他公司進行比較，我也從未見過它如此順利。整個團隊的工作非常出色，這讓你給了 Kim 一些時間來回答問題。

As it relates to the business environment, I think it's very similar to what you heard from Ken and Peter related to durable demand. The biggest outlets for propylene oxide are polyurethanes that go into insulation, they go into furniture, they go into the construction industry, paintings and coatings.

由於它與商業環境有關，我認為這與您從 Ken 和 Peter 那裡聽到的與持久需求相關的內容非常相似。環氧丙烷最大的出口是進入絕緣材料的聚氨酯，它們進入家具，進入建築行業、繪畫和塗料。

So until we see housing turn, you're going to -- the demand is going to be weak. And the question is what's going to happen with interest rates and how will that influence housing demand, not only in the U.S., but also some of the challenges that they have in Asia -- as far as their construction and real estate markets.

因此，在我們看到住房轉向之前，你會 - 需求將會疲軟。問題是利率會發生什麼變化，這將如何影響住房需求，不僅是美國的住房需求，還有他們在亞洲面臨的一些挑戰——就建築和房地產市場而言。

So as we look forward, we have some optimism, but I think it's heavily weighted on what happens with interest rates. To your other question as it relates to industry consolidation. Yes, we would love to see some consolidation from fourth quartile assets around the world, but those are decisions that each and every manufacturer has to look at and make as they assess their portfolio.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我們有一些樂觀情緒，但我認為它在很大程度上取決於利率的變化。關於您的其他問題，因為它與行業整合有關。是的，我們希望看到全球四分之一資產的一些合併，但這些是每個製造商在評估其投資組合時必須考慮和做出的決定。

And Duffy, that a part of the PO consumption is going into bedding into furniture. But there is also a part that is going about, I would say, 20% is going into automotive. And if you look at the automotive industry in terms of builds, the latest IHS numbers were, let's say, April expectation, close to 4% increase. So it's not all negative. But as long as we don't see that the construction market will start to pick up, then we expect that it will be moderate in terms of demand growth in PO, but we are ready for that.

而 Duffy，PO 消耗的一部分用於家具的床上用品。但也有一部分正在發生，我想說，20% 將進入汽車行業。如果你從建造的角度來看汽車行業，最新的 IHS 數據是，比方說，4 月份的預期，增長接近 4%。所以也不全是負面的。但只要我們看不到建築市場將開始回暖，那麼我們預計 PO 的需求增長將會溫和，但我們已經做好了準備。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I wanted to follow up on one of the earlier questions on demand and specifically around China in terms of what you're seeing in terms of on-the-ground demand and inventories for polyethylene and polypropylene. And you made a comment on, I mean, your prepared remarks around delays in polyethylene capacity in North America being helpful. I mean, at least on paper, there's capacity coming out in China at meaningful scale. Is there anything you could comment on there that's going perhaps per plant slower or faster than you expected?

我想就您在聚乙烯和聚丙烯的實際需求和庫存方面所看到的需求，特別是中國各地的需求問題，跟進一個問題。你發表了評論，我的意思是，你準備好的關於北美聚乙烯產能延遲的評論很有幫助。我的意思是，至少在紙面上，中國的產能規模很大。有什麼你可以評論的，每株植物的生長速度可能比你預期的要慢或快？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Josh. No, there's nothing that we see really meaningfully different in terms of the developments around China capacity additions. They seem to be coming on about the way that we had expected. So really nothing new there.

是的。謝謝你的問題，喬希。不，就圍繞中國產能增加的發展而言，我們沒有看到真正有意義的不同。他們似乎正在按照我們預期的方式進行。所以真的沒有什麼新鮮事。

But again, what we're starting to see is consumption is improving, converters and downstream customers are being a little bit more careful. They're not wanting to build inventory. So that's point of what we see in terms of, I'd say, the slow ramp-up.

但同樣，我們開始看到消費正在改善，加工商和下游客戶變得更加謹慎。他們不想建立庫存。所以這就是我們所看到的，我會說，緩慢的增長。

They're being very risk-averse, but the demand is beginning to come back a little bit as far as consumer goods. To the point that Peter made earlier, durables are less strong in terms of the recovery, but we still see good demand in food packaging and those sorts of markets.

他們非常規避風險，但就消費品而言，需求開始有所回升。就彼得早些時候提出的觀點而言，耐用品在復蘇方面不那麼強勁，但我們仍然看到食品包裝和此類市場的良好需求。

Can we say, Ken, I mean, if you look at just at March, export fee from the U.S., that went up as well?

我們可以說，肯，我的意思是，如果你只看 3 月份，美國的出口費用也上漲了？

Yes. So exports from North America have gone up in the month of March pretty significantly, if you look at the ACC data. So that's going to continue, I think, into the second quarter.

是的。因此，如果您查看 ACC 數據，北美的出口在 3 月份大幅增長。所以我認為這將持續到第二季度。

Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Peter, can you talk to the strength of the oxyfuel margins and how sustainable it might be beyond the seasonally stronger period we're about to enter?

彼得，你能談談富氧燃燒利潤率的優勢，以及它在我們即將進入的季節性強勁時期之外的可持續性嗎？

Yes. Thank you, David. Good question. We continue to believe, I mean, that the oxyfuel markets, if you look at it compared to the history, will continue to be strong. Maybe a little bit. But I will give it to you Kim, to elaborate a little bit more.

是的。謝謝你，大衛。好問題。我們繼續相信，我的意思是，如果與歷史相比，富氧燃燒市場將繼續保持強勁。也許一點點。但我會把它交給你 Kim，再詳細說明一下。

Thanks, Peter. So I think if you think about the big drivers for the profitability of oxyfuels, at your feedstock costs, so look at your butane costs versus your crude. Look at your cost of methanol, which right now in the U.S. is favorable with low natural gas, the relative price of crude, so the higher crude is, the more favorable it is, because it's the difference between the lower gas and the crude.

謝謝，彼得。所以我認為，如果你考慮到純氧燃料盈利能力的主要驅動因素，以你的原料成本，那麼看看你的丁烷成本與你的原油。看你甲醇的成本，現在在美國是有利的，天然氣低，原油的相對價格，所以原油越高越有利，因為它是天然氣和原油之間的差異。

And then the premium. And I think that's the question many people have is what's going to happen with all this new capacity as we come into the market with the -- what we call the oxyfuel for the ether premium. And we're pretty confident we have outlets for all of that material. And we think there'll be some seasonal moderation of margins as we go into the third and fourth quarter as butane pricing increases. But no concerns or plans that we haven't forecasted within our portfolio.

然後是溢價。而且我認為這是許多人的問題，即當我們進入市場時，所有這些新產能將會發生什麼——我們稱之為以太溢價的富氧燃料。我們非常有信心我們擁有所有這些材料的出口。我們認為，隨著丁烷價格上漲，我們進入第三和第四季度時利潤率會出現一些季節性放緩。但我們沒有在我們的投資組合中預測到的擔憂或計劃。

Yes. One needs to look like Kim said in the prepared remarks, I mean the new PO/TBA plant, even if we would operate at 90%, 95% of capacity, we have actually proactively scheduled 3 turnarounds at other plants. So at the end, net-net, there is not substantial more volume that comes into the market.

是的。需要像 Kim 在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我的意思是新的 PO/TBA 工廠，即使我們將以 90%、95% 的產能運行，我們實際上已經主動安排了其他工廠的 3 次周轉。所以最後，淨淨，沒有更多的數量進入市場。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

I had a question on your Cologne hub slide. First, there's mechanical recycling that's present in the diagram -- and as you know, there is a very well-developed mechanical recycling industry that already exists. Do you have any special sauce or advantage by owning the mechanical recycling assets and having them on that 1 site?

我對您的科隆樞紐幻燈片有疑問。首先，圖表中顯示了機械回收——如您所知，已經存在非常發達的機械回收行業。通過擁有機械回收資產並將它們放在那個 1 站點，您是否有任何特殊優勢或優勢？

Well, we do believe, and it's a very good question, I mean, Aleksey, and rightfully noted as well that this is -- as we said at the Capital Markets Day, this is the who breadth of different technologies that we are deploying globally, not just at the Cologne hub. And one of those technologies is actually the mechanical recycling technologies. And you saw from our announcement this morning that we have agreed to meet to buy out and now have full ownership over the QCP assets, which are assets in Galena in the Netherlands as well as the Tekova assets in Belgium. So these assets are on one hand side, industrial mechanical waste focus, and on the other hand side, was consumer waste focused.

好吧，我們確實相信，這是一個很好的問題，我的意思是，Aleksey，並且正確地指出這是 - 正如我們在資本市場日所說的那樣，這就是我們在全球部署的不同技術的廣度，不僅在科隆樞紐。其中一項技術實際上是機械回收技術。你從我們今天早上的公告中看到，我們已經同意開會買斷，現在擁有 QCP 資產的全部所有權，這些資產是荷蘭 Galena 的資產以及比利時的 Tekova 資產。因此，這些資產一方面以工業機械廢物為重點，另一方面以消費者廢物為重點。

So again, here, we have the breadth of technologies that we then can bring to the market. We do believe that we have differentiated technology not just on the mechanical of course, as you know, but also on the advanced recycling and intend to continue to deploy that.

因此，在這裡，我們擁有可以推向市場的廣泛技術。我們確實相信，我們不僅在機械方面擁有差異化技術，當然，正如您所知，而且在先進的回收方面也有差異化技術，並打算繼續部署它。

And just -- one thing I do want to add to that is when you look at the resins that we develop and the mechanical recycling capability that we have, being able to optimize those things. So if you think about some of our new resins coming out of the Hyperzone asset, they are very good to be able to increase the recycled content. So there is an advantage by optimizing your portfolio of virgin resins and recycle its content.

只是 - 我想補充的一件事是，當您查看我們開發的樹脂和我們擁有的機械回收能力時，能夠優化這些東西。因此，如果您考慮我們從 Hyperzone 資產中提取的一些新樹脂，它們非常適合增加回收含量。因此，通過優化您的原始樹脂組合併回收其內容物是有優勢的。

Yes, that's a very important point. And that's why, I mean, this approach, the synergies that we have, the optimization that is possible to maximize the value out of our waste.

是的，這是非常重要的一點。這就是為什麼，我的意思是，這種方法，我們所擁有的協同作用，以及可以最大限度地從我們的廢物中獲得價值的優化。

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vincent Andrews 與 Morgan Stanley 的對話。

I'm wondering if you can give us a bit of a bridge in EAI from 1Q into 2Q and a couple of questions within that. One would just be on the energy cost position of the plant footprint. I know you said it was $90 million better versus 4Q. Does that improve any further into the second quarter? And then also, you commented in the release about in the first quarter, I believe it was 70% naphtha as a feedstock. What was the reason why you were so rich in naphtha versus LPG? And what would you anticipate for the second quarter?

我想知道您是否可以在 EAI 中給我們一些從 1Q 到 2Q 的橋樑以及其中的幾個問題。一個只是關於工廠足蹟的能源成本位置。我知道你說過這比第四季度多了 9000 萬美元。這種情況會在第二季度進一步改善嗎？然後，您在第一季度的新聞稿中評論說，我相信這是 70% 的石腦油作為原料。石腦油比液化石油氣多的原因是什麼？您對第二季度有何預期？

I'll take that one, Vincent. Thanks for the question. So just to give you a feel, recall that we had in the fourth quarter, the -- our French cracker down. So that certainly has an impact on our energy mix and our feedstock mix as well. I think what was interesting in the first quarter is that propane was in the feedstock mix, which is atypical when you think about winter months, normally propane is not in the feedstock mix. And we have a lot of flexibility in that cracker in France. So as we were ramping that up, we started to optimize the portfolio through the quarter. So you'll see some more impact.

我要那個，文森特。謝謝你的問題。因此，為了給您一種感覺，請回想一下我們在第四季度的情況，即我們的法國餅乾。因此，這肯定會對我們的能源結構和原料結構產生影響。我認為第一季度有趣的是丙烷在原料混合物中，當你考慮冬季時，這是不典型的，通常丙烷不在原料混合物中。我們在法國的餅乾上有很大的靈活性。因此，隨著我們的增加，我們開始優化整個季度的投資組合。所以你會看到更多的影響。

The full quarter impact of having the bar cracker up and running in the second quarter, but I'd say it's marginal. We do have a good cost position in terms of energy costs in France. So I don't expect there to be a big difference in the second quarter versus first quarter, other than what you can see in the improving price of gas in Europe.

在第二季度啟動和運行條形餅乾的整個季度影響，但我認為這是微不足道的。就法國的能源成本而言，我們確實擁有良好的成本地位。因此，我預計第二季度與第一季度不會有太大差異，除了您可以看到歐洲天然氣價格上漲之外。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Skowronski with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Matthew Skowronski。

Ken, ethane prices have fallen quite a bit. Can you provide color on your outlook for feedstock costs for the rest of the year? And also, now that we're at the end of the month, where do you expect North American polyethylene prices to settle in April?

肯，乙烷價格下跌了不少。您能否為今年剩餘時間的原料成本前景提供顏色？而且，現在我們已經到了月底，您預計 4 月份北美聚乙烯價格將在哪裡結算？

Sure, Matthew. So we are in a really good position, as you can imagine, for North American feedstock advantage, the oil and gas ratio is very strong. Our outlook is that that's going to continue. We've seen good increases in production in North America in NGLs. And if you look at ethane and propane inventories, they're at high levels and production continues -- so I expect that we're going to see in the midterm continued strength in the advantage for North America.

當然，馬修。所以我們處於非常有利的位置，正如你可以想像的那樣，對於北美的原料優勢，油氣比非常強勁。我們的展望是這種情況將繼續下去。我們已經看到北美的 NGL 產量有了很好的增長。如果你看看乙烷和丙烷的庫存，它們處於高水平並且生產仍在繼續 - 所以我預計我們將在中期看到北美優勢的持續增強。

And like we said in the prepared statement, some of the delays in the production issues that are happening with the North American capacity that's coming on, should continue to lend support to polyethylene pricing. And -- we've got price increase announcements out there. And certainly, we're optimistic that we'll be able to secure for that.

就像我們在準備好的聲明中所說的那樣，北美產能正在發生的一些生產問題的延誤應該會繼續為聚乙烯定價提供支持。而且——我們已經發布了漲價公告。當然，我們樂觀地認為我們能夠確保這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Just to follow up on the prior question. Can you comment on the demand side of polyethylene? Do you think that destocking has run its course at this point? And if so, would you anticipate any restocking in coming months?

只是為了跟進先前的問題。您能否評論一下聚乙烯的需求面？您認為此時去庫存是否已告一段落？如果是這樣，您預計未來幾個月會有補貨嗎？

And then with regard to the new supply that's coming domestically, it seems that, as you alluded to, there's either delays or we've also heard that some units are having trouble running on specs sustainably. So welcome any color you have along those lines for the market or individual grades of resin.

然後關於國內即將到來的新供應，似乎，正如你提到的，要么有延遲，要么我們也聽說一些單位在可持續地運行規格方面遇到了麻煩。因此，歡迎使用市場上的任何顏色或個別等級的樹脂。

Ken?

肯？

Yes. Sure. So listen, I'll just continue. Nothing really more to add. We are seeing tightness in some market segments more than others, which is things like high-density polyethylene, you've probably heard the issues around some of the tightness in the markets there. We expect that's going to continue. But not a lot really to add. It's -- these things are a little bit hard to predict.

是的。當然。所以聽著，我會繼續。沒什麼可補充的了。我們看到某些細分市場比其他細分市場更緊俏，比如高密度聚乙烯，您可能已經聽說過有關市場緊縮的問題。我們預計這將繼續下去。但真正要補充的並不多。這是 - 這些事情有點難以預測。

And exports, like we had mentioned earlier, did creep up in March, and that's always going to be one of the key factors in terms of new capacity coming on with the feedstock advantage that we have here, a lot of that new capacity is going to go offshore.

就像我們之前提到的那樣，出口在 3 月份確實有所上升，這始終是新產能的關鍵因素之一，我們在這裡擁有原料優勢，很多新產能正在發展去海外。

And we're not faced with any of the supply chain issues like what we were seeing kind of early fourth quarter those issues are gone. So the ability to move product offshore is going to help sort of evacuate that volume fairly quickly.

而且我們沒有面臨任何供應鏈問題，就像我們在第四季度初看到的那樣，這些問題已經消失了。因此，將產品轉移到海外的能力將有助於相當快地疏散該數量。

Ken, we think destocking is largely done, but folks are buying cautiously, right?

肯，我們認為去庫存已基本完成，但人們正在謹慎購買，對嗎？

Yes, yes. I would say destocking, we don't really see that occurring anymore and people are being cautious in terms of their inventory levels.

是的是的。我想說的是去庫存，我們並沒有真正看到這種情況發生，人們對庫存水平持謹慎態度。

Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just a question on how you're thinking about the year and maybe next year as well. We appreciate the '27 $10 billion number. But if you just look into the rest of this year, you were able to do the $1.5 billion for Q1 on EBITDA. Usually in Q2 and Q3 a little bit better, and you're still talking about weak demand. So I'm assuming there's a little bit of improvement as we go through the middle of the year. That should put you on a pace of around $6 billion. Next year, you have, unfortunately, the refinery out, which maybe is a loss of $1 billion. How do you -- are some of those kind of ways of thinking about Lyondell accurate? And how do you kind of plan to plug that $1 billion hole for next year?

只是一個關於你如何看待今年和明年的問題。我們讚賞 27 年 100 億美元的數字。但如果你只看今年剩下的時間，你就能在 EBITDA 上為第一季度支付 15 億美元。通常在第二季度和第三季度會好一點，而你仍在談論需求疲軟。所以我假設我們在年中時會有所改善。那應該讓你的步伐達到 60 億美元左右。不幸的是，明年你有煉油廠，這可能會造成 10 億美元的損失。你如何 - 一些關於 Lyondell 的思考方式是否準確？你打算如何在明年填補這 10 億美元的缺口？

Arun, good question. Thank you very much. And of course, in the context of not giving guidance on a yearly basis, we alluded already, I mean, to the fact that we see maybe a little bit of movement in China but not substantially. So that will be a very important factor to look at if and it's a big if, during the second half of this year, demand growth would be there in China on a substantial basis.

阿倫，好問題。非常感謝。當然，在不提供年度指導的情況下，我的意思是，我們已經提到了這樣一個事實，即我們可能看到中國有一點點變化，但不是很大。因此，這將是一個非常重要的考慮因素，如果在今年下半年，中國的需求增長將大幅增長，那麼這將是一個很大的因素。

And the other point, we expect, that energy costs were going to be, let's say, relatively modest, of course, a big advantage that can leverage upon in the United States. Energy costs have gone down in Europe. But of course, we all know that they are still -- energy is still very expensive in Europe.

另一點，我們預計，能源成本將相對較低，當然，這是美國可以利用的一大優勢。歐洲的能源成本已經下降。但當然，我們都知道它們仍然——歐洲的能源仍然非常昂貴。

But we don't see immediately from today's perspective that energy costs in Europe would certainly return back means that like we had gas price above EUR 130, EUR 140 per megawatt hour that we have seen at the end of 2022. So China continues to be a big question mark. And then how will the inflation influence consumer behavior in Europe as well as in the United States.

但從今天的角度來看，我們不會立即看到歐洲的能源成本肯定會回升，這意味著就像我們在 2022 年底看到的每兆瓦時 130 歐元、140 歐元的天然氣價格一樣。所以中國繼續一個大大的問號。然後通貨膨脹將如何影響歐洲和美國的消費者行為。

So to put a bow around that, Peter, we think the second half should be better than the first half. That's broadly in line with what the analyst community is thinking as well. But as you said, China is the linchpin and uncertainty generally is high right now.

彼得，我們認為下半場應該比上半場好。這也與分析師社區的想法大體一致。但正如你所說，中國是關鍵，目前不確定性普遍很高。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Blair 與 TPH 的對話。

On natural gas, I think you've given sensitivity that every dollar per MMBtu is about $175 million of op costs. Did you realize all those benefits in Q1 from both lower U.S. as well as lower European gas prices? And I guess, should we expect any sort of incremental benefit heading into Q2?

在天然氣方面，我認為您已經意識到每 MMBtu 的每一美元大約是 1.75 億美元的運營成本。您是否從美國和歐洲較低的天然氣價格中意識到第一季度的所有這些好處？我想，我們是否應該期待進入第二季度的任何增量收益？

Michael?

邁克爾？

Sure. Happy to take that question. And we got some feedback from a few folks that they didn't like our rule of thumb. So I'll give you a bit more data this morning, which hopefully is helpful. But as you all know, energy prices last year surged significantly, both in Europe and the U.S. And so just looking at energy cost for last year versus 2021, up about $1.7 billion. If you benchmark last year versus 2020, up $3.3 billion. So we faced into some significant energy cost increases over the last couple of years.

當然。很高興回答這個問題。我們從一些人那裡得到了一些反饋，他們不喜歡我們的經驗法則。所以今天早上我會給你更多的數據，希望對你有幫助。但眾所周知，去年歐洲和美國的能源價格都大幅飆升。所以只看去年與 2021 年相比的能源成本，上漲了約 17 億美元。如果以去年和 2020 年為基準，增加 33 億美元。因此，在過去幾年中，我們面臨著能源成本顯著增加的問題。

But obviously, have seen relief that started in the fourth quarter and has followed through into the first quarter of this year and now is continuing into the second quarter. So -- what I would say is that if you looked at energy cost overall for the fourth quarter for the enterprise, about $1 billion overall. In the first quarter, down roughly $200 million. Our expectation as we move into Q2, that it's largely flattish, maybe a little bit of kind of full quarter effect.

但很明顯，從第四季度開始，一直持續到今年第一季度，現在一直持續到第二季度。所以 - 我要說的是，如果你看一下企業第四季度的整體能源成本，總共約為 10 億美元。第一季度，減少了大約 2 億美元。當我們進入第二季度時，我們的預期是基本持平，可能有點像整個季度的影響。

And then just from a modeling perspective, I'll give you a couple of more data points to be helpful both around North American average natural gas prices that we incurred and then Europe average natural gas prices. So for North America, average price in the fourth quarter was $5 -- roughly $5.30 per MMBtu. In the first quarter, the average was $3.10 -- roughly $3.10. And then for Europe, fourth quarter was $26.70, and in the first quarter was $16.60. So hopefully, those data points will help you all as you kind of think about the balance of the year from a modeling perspective.

然後從建模的角度來看，我會給你更多的數據點，以幫助我們了解北美平均天然氣價格和歐洲平均天然氣價格。因此，對於北美，第四季度的平均價格為 5 美元——大約每 MMBtu 5.30 美元。第一季度，平均價格為 3.10 美元——大約為 3.10 美元。然後在歐洲，第四季度為 26.70 美元，第一季度為 16.60 美元。因此，希望這些數據點能在您從建模的角度考慮今年的餘額時對您有所幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

I wanted to revisit a series of questions that you guys obviously got on polyethylene supply additions. I mean if I were to sort of dig deeper into the different grades of polyethylene, there seem to be fairly major divergences in those capacity adds. Meaning, if I take a look at LDPE, the capacity adds are fairly tepid versus HD and LL. So how do you see that sort of playing out in the near to medium term?

我想重新審視你們顯然對聚乙烯供應增加提出的一系列問題。我的意思是，如果我要更深入地研究不同等級的聚乙烯，這些產能增加似乎存在相當大的差異。意思是，如果我看一下 LDPE，與 HD 和 LL 相比，增加的容量相當不溫不火。那麼，您如何看待中短期內的這種情況？

Ken?

肯？

Thank you for the question, Hassan. I mean like I said before, we've seen this capacity coming for several years. There's not anything really new here -- you're exactly right, linear low and high-density capacity has really been differentially higher coming online than low density.

謝謝你的問題，哈桑。我的意思是就像我之前說過的，我們已經看到這種能力已經出現好幾年了。這裡並沒有什麼真正的新東西——你是完全正確的，線性低密度和高密度容量的上線確實比低密度高。

But it doesn't change our outlook. We know -- if you go back to the fourth quarter, we really did hit sort of the bottom of the cycle at that point. And now as growth begins to come back in the market, that's going to absorb that capacity. We will sometime in the next several years, get back to a more normalized level of earnings. So not really anything new to add to that. These are things that happen, and we just have to -- we have to work through that in the marketplace.

但這並沒有改變我們的看法。我們知道——如果你回到第四季度，我們確實在那個時候觸及了周期的底部。現在隨著市場開始恢復增長，這將吸收這種能力。我們將在未來幾年的某個時候，恢復到更正常的收入水平。因此，實際上並沒有什麼新內容可以添加到其中。這些都是發生的事情，我們只需要——我們必須在市場上解決這些問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Vanacker for any final comments.

女士們，先生們，我們的提問時間到此結束。最後請 Vanacker 先生髮言。

Thank you very much, everybody. As usual, excellent questions, very thoughtful questions. We, of course, look forward to sharing our progress in delivering LyondellBasell strategy and unlocking additional value over the coming months. I wish you all a great weekend, and as usual, stay safe. Thank you.

非常感謝大家。像往常一樣，優秀的問題，非常周到的問題。當然，我們期待在未來幾個月內分享我們在實施 LyondellBasell 戰略和釋放額外價值方面取得的進展。祝大家週末愉快，並像往常一樣注意安全。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。