利安德巴塞爾 (LYB) 2003 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Millennium Chemicals third quarter 2003 results and outlook conference call. At this time all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. And the floor will be open for questions following the presentation. At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Mickey Foster. Sir, the floor is yours.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon. And thank you for participating in Millennium Chemicals' analyst conference call and welcome to those participants on the Internet. Today, we will cover results for the third quarter of 2003, and our outlook. Speakers include Jack Lushefski, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and myself, Mickey Foster, VP of Corporate and Investor Relations. Bob Lee, our President and CEO is also here for the question and answer portion of the call.

  • As we announced in the invitation to this conference call you can view the slides and listen to our presentation live by accessing our web site, www.MillenniumChem.com, and clicking on the Investor Relations icon. The slides available to our Internet participants are meant as an enhancement tool and they contain information which is either in our press release, or which we will discuss during this presentation. Here are two instructions for our Internet participants. First, in addition to asking questions on the conference call, as you have traditionally done, you can ask questions by clicking on the send question button located on the left-hand portion of your screen, and we will respond to them live during the Q&A portion of the conference call.

  • Second, the slides will automatically move forward during the presentation on your screen. Before we start, our lawyers asked me to preface with a Safe Harbor legal statement. The statements made on this conference call relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Our forward-looking statements are present expectations and actual events and results may differ materially due to the impact of factors such as industry cyclicality, general economic conditions, production capacity, competitive products and prices, and other risks and uncertainties detailed in the company's SEC filings. Please note we disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

  • In addition, any nonGAAP financial measure discussed in this presentation will be reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measure either in the presentation itself or in the information to be posted with our presentation materials on our web site. Jack will begin and will cover the financials, and then I will cover TiO2, acetyl specialty and Equistar. Then we will be glad to answer your questions. Jack?

  • John Lushefski,: Thanks, Mickey. Millennium reported a consolidated operating loss of $5 million for the third quarter of 2003 which was 35 million less than the 30 million reported for the third quarter of 2002. And 29 million less than that reported for the second quarter of 2003. Our operating loss for the third quarter included a charge of 15 million for reorganization and office closure charges related to the company's cost reduction program announced in July. Operating income was lower than the third quarter levels last year for our titanium dioxide, acetyls, and specialty chemicals business segment. As compared to the second quarter of 2003, acetyls operating income improved in both titanium dioxide and specialty chemicals were down.

  • Mickey will discuss individual business segment performance in greater detail when I complete my comments. Let's now move forward and discuss bottom line performance for the third quarter and year to date. Let's start with Millennium's adjusted profit and loss summary slide which provides abbreviated statements of operations to arrive at adjusted net loss or income after exclusion of certain items. Table five in our press release provides a reconciliation from reported GAAP earnings to adjusted GAAP for these same items on an after-tax basis. Operating prospects for the third quarter of 2003 was $10 million, down 20 million from the third quarter of last year and down 15 million from what was earned in the second quarter of 2003.

  • Third quarter net interest expense was 23 million, up one million from the expense levels in the third quarter of last year, and equal to the second quarter of 2003. Average net debt levels during the third quarter of the year were about 92 million higher than average net debt levels during the third quarter of last year. Our share of Equistar's operations on an after-interest basis, generated a loss of 12 million in the third quarter of 2003, compared to earnings of 6 million in the third quarter of 2002. Income tax benefit recognized year to date 2003 was about 35%. The benefit was slightly less than the third quarter of 2003, which was adjusted to reflect the appropriate year to date benefit.

  • Benefits for the full year of 2003 is expected to approximate the year to date benefit percentage of 35. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was 20 million, or 31 cents per share versus a net gain of 5 million or 8 cents per share for the third quarter of last year. Moving to slide five, this slide provides a reconciliation from our reported GAAP net loss, to the adjusted GAAP loss I provided and discussed on the previous slide. Reorganization expenses related to the cost reduction program outlined in our July 21, 2003 press release, and income from the collection of a note receivable previously written off or highlighted as reconciling items for the third quarter of 2003. Moving to slide six, this slide provides the same reconciliation from reported GAAP to adjusted GAAP for the first nine months of 2003.

  • A cumulative effect of accounting change for asset retirement obligations, reorganization expenses related to the cost reduction program, and the collection of the note receivable, and our share of Equistar's loss in the sale of assets and debt prepayment costs are added here, as reconciling items. Let's move to a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. Net debt at the end of the quarter was $1.205 billion, a balance that is 9 million higher than our net debt balance at the beginning of the quarter and 88 million higher than our net debt balance at the beginning of the year. Cash on hand increased by 3 million during the quarter, and by 33 million since the beginning of the year. Slide eight details our change in net debt for both the third quarter of 2003 and year to date, September 30, 2003.

  • Tax payments during the quarter include 19 million relating to the 1989 to 1992 audit years, which were substantially resolved with the Internal Revenue Service. Cash used for capital spending remained at a very low rate as we continue to conserve cash by limiting capital to important safety, environmental, and short pay back discretionary projects. Trade working capital, defined as accounts receivable, plus inventories, less accounts payable, increased during the quarter and were the use, 36 million in cash. This primarily relates to roller accounts payable balance at the end of the quarter, versus the beginning of the quarter, due to a reduction in capital projects and timing of vendor payments. Cash generated from the movements of other assets and liabilities, results for the reduction in prepaid assets and the increase in accrued expenses and other liabilities due to timing of accruals and payments for items within these accounts.

  • Net debt increased during the quarter by 9 million. It did not receive distribution from Equistar in the quarter. Moving to our debt statistics, EBITDA to net interest coverage as defined in our credit agreement for the trailing 12 months of September, was about 2.17 times, and our net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio was a little over six times. The company was not in compliance with these financial covenants, under its bank credit agreement as of the end of September.

  • As a result, the company obtained waivers to the provisions of these financial covenants, which will expire on December 31, 2003. The company is currently seeking an amendment to the credit agreement to revise these financial covenants, and expects to be able to obtain this amendment before the end of the year. The effectiveness of the amendment would be contingent on Millennium obtaining at least 110 million of long-term financing prior to the expiration of the current waiver. The company expects that it will be able to obtain the requisite financing on or before December 31, 2003. I will close with the slide showing the history of capital spending and an estimate of that figure for 2003.

  • Our employees have worked very hard to control capital expenditures without sacrificing safety, environmental compliance, or plant reliability. For the first nine months of 2003, capital spending was 29 million, compared to 43 million during the corresponding period in 2002. We will continue to control capital spending and full year spending is expected to be approximately 50 million in 2003. Now, I will turn it over to Mickey who will discuss some details about performance in our business segments and at Equistar.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Jack. The Titanium Dioxide segment reported third quarter operating income of $7 million. Compared to 21 million in the third quarter of 2002, and 23 million in the second quarter of 2003. The sequential decline in the second quarter of 2003, to the third quarter of 2003 was due to higher manufacturing costs per metric ton due to planned slowdowns and unscheduled operating disruptions and lower global average TiO2 pricing. Looking at pricing, in local currencies, average third quarter prices increased 4% from the third quarter of 2002, and decreased 2% from the second quarter of 2003. In U.S. dollar terms, the third quarter worldwide average selling prices increased 8% from the third quarter of 2002, and decreased 2% from the second quarter of 2003. Next, looking at sales volumes, third quarter 2003 TiO2 sales volume of 149,000 metric tons represented a decrease of 8% from the third quarter of 2002, and was up 2% from the second quarter of 2003. Turning next to operating rate, the third quarter 2003 TiO2 operating rate was 84% of annual nameplate capacity of 690,000 metric tons, compared to 90% in the third quarter of 2002, and 96% in the second quarter of 2003.

  • Operating profit in the TiO2 business segment is expected to be slightly down in the fourth quarter of 2003, compared to the third quarter of 2003, as production rates will continue to be low, as required for normal seasonal slow demand conditions, and to manage inventory levels. Pricing as measured in average U.S. dollars per metric ton is expected to remain relatively flat. Now, turning to acetyls. The acetyl segment reported third quarter operating income of $6 million compared to 8 million in the third quarter of 2002, and 5 million in the second quarter, 2003.

  • In the aggregate, the weighted average U.S. dollar price for VAM and acetic acid in the third quarter of 2003 increased 16%, compared to the third quarter of 2002 and decreased 7% from the second quarter of 2003. Aggregate volume of VAM and acetic acid in the third quarter of 2003, increased 10% from the third quarter of 2002, and increased 23% from the second quarter of 2003. Now, looking at our outlook for acetyls. Operating profit in the acetyls business segment for the fourth quarter of 2003 is expected to be higher than the third quarter of 2003, reflecting lower average opening inventory costs, and stable market conditions. Now, turning to the specialty chemicals.

  • The specialty chemical segment reported third quarter operating loss of 1 million compared to 2 million in both the third quarter of 2002 and the second quarter of 2003. Sales volume increased 3% from the third quarter of 2002 and was down 10% from the second quarter of 2003. Average selling prices decreased 7% compared to the third quarter of 2002, and increased 6% from the second quarter of 2003. Looking at our outlook in specialty chemical, results for specialty chemicals business segment in the fourth quarter of 2003 are expected to be similar to the third quarter of 2003.

  • Fragrance and flavor chemical markets remain competitive, with continued price pressure in most markets. Crude sulfate turpentine supply and demand balance remains tight and higher cost alternative feed stock will be used as required. In addition, supply chain improvements are reducing overall inventory levels resulting in lower fourth quarter plant operating rates. Now turning to Equistar. Millennium's 29.5% stake in Equistar generated a post-interest loss on investment of $12 million in the third quarter of 2003, compared to earnings of 6 million in the third quarter of 2002, and a 14 million dollar loss in the second quarter of 2003.

  • Equistar benefited from increased sales volumes of ethylene and derivative products in the third quarter of 2003, which were approximately 435 million pounds or 21% higher than the second quarter of 2003. This volume improvement was generally offset by lower third quarter 2003 product margins. Looking at our outlook for Equistar. To date in the fourth quarter, 2003 sales volume for the key ethylene products are keeping equivalent pace with late third quarter 2003 rates. Pricing initiatives in polyethylene and several of the key derivatives have been successful. An ethylene production from liquid raw materials continue to have an advantage versus natural gas-based production economics.

  • At the beginning of October, Equistar began a seven-week maintenance turnaround on one of its large liquid raw material based ethylene plants. To compensate for this activity, Equistar will produce a greater than normal percentage of its ethylene from natural gas-based raw materials. Based on current costs and co-product prices, this activity is estimated to negatively impact quarterly earnings by 5 to 10 million dollars. The cash expenditures for turnaround activities will be approximately 50 million. There are signs of improvement in the global economy. However, they are not yet sufficient to provide a clear trend line. In the near term, any improvements are being overshadowed by volatility in raw material and energy prices.

  • This now concludes the formal part of our presentation. And thanks for your attention. Now we would be glad to open it up for questions.

  • Operator

  • Thank you, the floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please press the number one followed by four on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. Questions will be taken in the order they are received and we do ask that while your posing your question, to please pick up your handset to provide optimum sound quality. Please hold while I poll for questions. Thank you. Your first question is coming from Michael Judd of Greenwich Consultants. Sir your line is live.

  • Michael Judd - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Hello, Mike.

  • Michael Judd - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you guys could comment about Equistar's various debt covenants and whether you feel comfortable about those, in the fourth quarter?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • They are actually in the process of working through an amendment to their debt agreement, even as we speak. Essentially that process should complete before the end of the year.

  • Michael Judd - Analyst

  • All right. Thanks. I will get back in queue.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Your next question is coming from Bob goldberg from new Vernon associates.

  • Bob Goldberg - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Hello, Bob.

  • Bob Goldberg - Analyst

  • Can you talk a little bit about inventory levels? They did come down a little bit in the third quarter from the second quarter. But they still remain, I imagine, on the high side. Talk about your ability to bring those down and what the plans are going into next year?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Jack, you want to talk about the recent October -- they've been coming down.

  • John Lushefski,: Yeah, we can talk about it. It actually declined during the third quarter by a few thousand tons, and it actually declined again in October by more than that. So we've actually had several months now where we've produced less than we sold and that was fairly significant in October. In November, that could also be the case. We may build a little bit of inventory in December, which is generally our slowest month of the year, but right now, we're anticipating going into next year with probably a little bit more than two months of inventory that we have now and it will probably be a similar level to that at the end of the year.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • But we are clearly below second quarter levels, Bob.

  • Bob Goldberg - Analyst

  • And where would be more desirable level going into -- I mean if you're going into the spring season, presumably you wouldn't really want to have two months of inventory if you're trying to raise price.

  • John Lushefski,: The industry is probably below -- it's definitely below two months.

  • Bob Goldberg - Analyst

  • Right.

  • John Lushefski,: So we would like to get below that two month level and we're just trying to balance that off with how much we slow production at the plants. Obviously, that process is difficult, and we've paid for that in earnings over the third quarter and we will continue to do so in the fourth quarter. So it is completely a balancing act. Our desire was to bring inventory down from where they were at the end of June. And they're down from that level, and they will be down from that level when we go into next year.

  • Bob Goldberg - Analyst

  • The industry you said is at 86%, so you're what, five points or something below that?

  • John Lushefski,: We operated at 84% in the third quarter. And our operating rate will probably be very similar to that in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, possible a little bit higher.

  • Bob Goldberg - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you, your next question is coming from Christopher Miller from J.P. Morgan.

  • Christopher Miller - Analyst

  • Good morning or good afternoon I should say at this point. I wanted to follow-up a little bit on the TiO2 business, in terms of kind of what you're seeing, I guess I was a little surprised at your outlook for the fourth quarter, from what you've indicate so far. Talk a little bit about where you think you are in terms of market share and maybe regaining some of the customers that you kind of walked away from over the last year on price issues?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Bob.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Chris, let me take that. This is Bob Lee. Our estimation is that we lost some market share from last year. We believe without using price, just being competitive on some things that are being thrown our way, we've turned that trend. And are picking it up without using price as the lever to do it. We would expect that to continue modestly into next year. It can be accelerated, Chris, if the market gets a little hotter than we've anticipated. We will balance how we handle our market share with how hot the market is. But we're certainly clearly seeing some robustness relative to the first half in the TiO2 business. We believe that the first half was down 6-8% for the industry as a whole. We believe it is going to end up the whole year down in the 3-5% range. So the second half has been rebounding. We saw the turn in the July time frame, and we're finally participating in it.

  • John Lushefski,: And I think just, sort of recent condition, our sales volumes in the month of October were probably the best for the year. And things are looking good, I think if you look at probably the monthly third quarter average, relative to what October was, it was clearly up double digits. The earnings are clearly being impacted, though, by running at relatively low operating rates to keep inventories in check.

  • Christopher Miller - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. And one other thing, when we look at it it looks like [inaudible] talking about methanol prices decreasing pretty substantially next year. What sort of impact do you see that having on your business?

  • John Lushefski,: It is going to be minimal. Methanol is a small part of our acetyl business segment. Our major product is VAM and second to that is acid. So even if they decline it would have a small impact on our segment operating profits for next year.

  • Christopher Miller - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

  • John Lushefski,: Yup, Chris.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Your next question is coming from Bill Young from Credit Suisse First Boston.

  • Bill Young - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. A couple of quick questions. You said, Jack, I believe, that you expected to get this, was it 110 million of financing done by the end of the year. Is that correct?

  • John Lushefski,: Yes.

  • Bill Young - Analyst

  • And I realize you can't be ultra specific, but could you just give us an idea of the type of financing you expect to get?

  • John Lushefski,: We're looking at all options.

  • Bill Young - Analyst

  • I'm sorry?

  • John Lushefski,: I really can't, Bill. As we indicated in our 8-K on Monday, it is going to be some type of long-term financing and we really don't want to signal anything past that. We're looking at all of our options, and talking about those with our bankers, and very soon, we will be out with some sort of announcement as to which way we are going, that will probably be done within the next two weeks or so.

  • Bill Young - Analyst

  • Okay. And the second question, if you had been running at a, whatever you want to call, typical operating rate, where your Ti02 sales volumes were the same as your production volumes, given today's pricing and energy and other raw material cost, what would that have equated to, rough guess, for your third quarter operating income, which was obviously pretty depressed?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • We believe that the differential in operating rate probably cost us, Bill, in the neighborhood of $12 million.

  • Bill Young - Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. Thanks for the good guess there.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Your next question is coming from PJ Juvekar of Smith Barney.

  • PJ Juvekar - Analyst

  • Hi there. I have a question about your inventories. You said the industry inventories are below two months. And you are higher than that. And you're trying to reduce that. I was just wondering why are your inventories higher than the industry average?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • You want me to take that?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Go ahead, Bob.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • This is Bob. What happened was during the second quarter, there was a late reaction to reality. We had a situation where our plants ran at record production, record quality, record first past prime, had a phenomenal quarter, including dealing with a complicated production wheel, and we had no coating season. The business was late to react to it. So we ended that second quarter with high inventories. And in the turmoil of the changes that happened in July, one of the outcomes of that was to relook at the business, relook at the situation we were in with our customers, because part of it was the industry itself driven, but part of it was also the fact that we were making ourselves very noncompetitive in the marketplace. So we have addressed it by trying to be more competitive, number one. And number two, ramping back the production rate to improve our cash flow. And it is, as Mickey mentioned, it is starting to work.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • It is related to 20,000 tons that we built in the second quarter of this year and we've been trying to take that back over the course of time, but if you adjust it for that tonnage, we would be very close to where the industry is today.

  • PJ Juvekar - Analyst

  • Right. So now you're focusing back on inventories. Second question is, you said, Bob, in your press release here, that you're trying to gain market share back.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

  • PJ Juvekar - Analyst

  • How did you lose that market share? And do you really think the xxacetyl product is that differentiator that you could could gain market share back?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • It is not dramatically differentiated but it is differentiated. The new product slate that we now have introduced is, we call it technically enhanced. The fact is it allows our customers to operate their facilities in a cheaper fashion. They can use a higher performance product from us, and quite frankly, use a little bit less of it, and get the same performance characteristics, so it allows them to improve their cost structure, and makes us then a beneficial supplier. The reason we got into this situation is last fall, optimism got the company in trouble. The company at that time was looking at record low inventories, had two price initiatives that were in place in almost every geography, and Millennium it seems took the position that we were going to lead and press and be the point of the spear on executing and implementing both of those outstanding price initiatives. And quite frankly, we had some customers that threatened us, begged us, talked to us, and walked. They booked contracts with other folks that were competitive, and in some cases booked annual contracts, so we actually lost a year with some of those customers. They didn't move everything, but they certainly punished us.

  • John Lushefski,: PJ, as you know, in most of the big customers have two or three suppliers and it is a matter of how much of that business you're going to get, what percentage, and in a number of cases, our percentage was slightly reduced, and the other one or two suppliers percentage was slightly increased. It is a little bit more rare where we leave a customer entirely. That happens but not often. It is more a case of being trimmed backed your allocation of the customer needs.

  • PJ Juvekar - Analyst

  • And just one last good question, Bob, do you think by the end of 4 Q your inventories would be in line with where you want them to be.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • By the end of what period?

  • PJ Juvekar - Analyst

  • End of fourth quarter.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • They will still be probably slightly higher than I would like but quite frankly we're looking at it weekly because as we're in the process of negotiating with various customers on their next year's contract, that will dictate how much inventory we're comfortable with carrying into next year, because that will sort of give us a hint of how well we will do in the coating season. So it will probably be slightly higher than we would like. But it will be lower than certainly where we were.

  • PJ Juvekar - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you, your next question comes from Kunal Banerjee from Goldman Sachs.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • Yeah, good afternoon. Just two questions. First, on TiO2, I was actually a little taken aback to see that you were able to phase in your new products this quickly. I mean to have them take off 40% of your sales, that's pretty remarkable. Was this going from zero percent in the second quarter to 40% in the third quarter? And does that imply some sort of a phasing in that you got spec'd in at customers? Could you just talk a little bit about that?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. This is Bob Lee. We've defined new products as products that we've introduced with new technology in the past three years. What we found, several years ago, when we bought the Tibras assets in Brazil and the RoamPolaunk[ph] assets in France, and we had our own, obviously, production, we had three separate product slates. So this was five years ago. And we looked at it and thought well, we can take the best of each and sort of come up with a commercial plan around that, or if we are going to put our customers through the trauma of change, why don't we come up with the best period. So our research folks worked hard over the past several years developing a best in class. And we put our customers through this over the past, mostly over the past year and a half. But we phased these in. We got them certified with various customers. Approved with the customers. The customers went through the painful process of reformulating. And it's been largely over the past 18 months, but it's intensified this year, and has ramped up several percentage points a quarter. It just didn't all of a sudden happen to be 40%. It is a bit of a hockey stick, but it didn't happen overnight.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • Okay. So just for perspective, what was the ratio back in the second quarter?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • It would have been sort of mid to high 30s.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • Okay. And then Jack, just one question on the accounting treatment. I noticed back in the first quarter when Equistar sold the polypropylene assets, you booked a loss on the asset sale, your share of that and the reconciliation from reported GAAP to adjusted GAAP. I didn't notice a similar treatment on the R&D facility writeoff. So I was wondering what the difference is there.

  • John Lushefski,: It is very gray. And we actually considered whether or not we should put that impairment charge and highlight it as a particular item. We thought the sale transaction was a little bit more unusual than impairment charges. I think companies like Equistar, ourselves have small writeoffs ever quarter for some type of asset impairment. And clearly, the item was disclosed and if someone felt that was a one-time item and maybe it could be construed to be unusual, to take it out, but we decided not exclude it.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • The reason I bring that up is because I think Linde is accounting or at least the implication is that folks are accounting for it definitely on the Linde side of things. All right. Thank you.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Kamul, a clarification. I've been told that our percentage of new product sales in the second quarter was closer to 25%.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • Okay. So it was a pretty significant jump.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • In the third quarter, it was a significant jump, yes.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • All right.

  • John Lushefski,: And, Kumal, the accounting is the same for us and Equistar. It is simply a matter of who identified it as an unusual item, to take out of recurring income.

  • Kunal Banerjee - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Your next question is coming from Don Carson from Merrill Lynch.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. Just to beat a dead horse here, just a clarification on TiO2 inventory, when you talk about two months, is that global or is that U.S.? My understanding is U.S. industry inventories were at 35 days at the end of September.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • We were talking global.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Okay. How would your U.S. inventories be?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • How would our U.S. inventories be?

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Right. Relative to that industry number of 35 days.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • We are higher.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Higher than 60, though?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • No, our U.S. inventories are probably lower than global inventories. With global we're moving product around, particularly in Asia, where most of the product is exported out of Australia and into areas in the Pacific rim.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Okay. So U.S. situation is generally better then?

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Our U.S. situation is generally better than our global situation.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Okay. And of that 84% operating rate, what was that relative U.S. versus ex-U.S.?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • We were fairly consistent with where we've managed the plants. The only thing that we kept running fairly hard was our Australian operation because the Asia market remains steady and we actually had inventory concerns there.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Okay. Follow-up on acetyls, you didn't talk about pricing, all you talked about is stable operating conditions. Does that imply you're not expecting a price increase in the fourth quarter?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • We're working it pretty hard. When we said stable marketing condition, we're implying feed stock, we're implying that price would remain relatively stable, but --

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • I think probably flat to up. Would be my guess for pricing in acetyls.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • And then strategic question, Bob. You talked before about revisiting your Equistar relationship with Linde and being more involved in the management of that business. Can you give us an update on how that has progressed? And what if any changes you've been able to implement there?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • No details. I think we've had a lot of steady conversation with Dan and his team. And quite frankly, we find them to be very phenomenal operators. We think they're doing a great job managing the assets. Our issues with them are strategic. And we discussed those thoroughly. And they're working with us on a creative basis to figure out ways to accelerate cash out of that operation. It's in their best interest as well.

  • John Lushefski,: And I think, Don, they've stepped up their cost reduction activities. They've done a lot of things recently and are continuing to do things into 2004 that are going to reduce their cost probably by greater percentages than has been done in recent history. And I'm not sure that's the result of our thinking, but certainly they're doing that, and we're glad to see that happen. It is certainly consistent with our thinking.

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • Consistent with our thinking.

  • Don Carson - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. And as a reminder, if you do have a question, please press the number one, followed by four on your touchtone phone at this time. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Tuan Faum from Banc of America securities.

  • Tuwong Fong - Analyst

  • Hi there. Just a quick question on the capex. It looks like, well year to date you've spent 30, and that would imply about 20 million for the fourth quarter. Just wondering what kind of activities you have planned. And then also if you could maybe comment on perhaps '04 capital spending levels.

  • John Lushefski,: Sure. There's nothing significant between now and the end of the year. It is a series of small projects and we're using the 50, we wanted to be at 50 or below, and certainly the pace we're on now it may end up being a little bit below 50 but we want to be conservative and make sure we could hit the target. With respect to next year, our plan is going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million or so as a starting point for 2004.

  • Tuwong Fong - Analyst

  • Okay. And I guess secondarily, I don't know if you have any update on asset sales, I saw something come across that was talking about the flavors and fragrances segment, just wondering if you had any thoughts on that?

  • Robert E Lee - President & Chief Executive Officer

  • It is nothing to add other than the fact it is under strategic review and remains under review, and we'll have an answer hopefully sometime shortly.

  • Tuwong Fong - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • There appears to be no further questions from the phone line.

  • Mickey Foster - Vice President Corporate & Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you very much. If you were unable to hear the entire call, play back will be available until Wednesday, November 19 by calling 973-341-3080, reservation number 4300414. And you can access the speech and slides on the Internet later today, www.MillenniumChem.com. Thanks for listening. And if you have any questions, please give us a call. Thank you. Bye.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.