LSB Industries Inc (LXU) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the LSB Industries Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位來賓，歡迎參加LSB Industries 2025年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kristy Carver, Senior Vice President and Treasurer. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我榮幸地向大家介紹主持人，高級副總裁兼財務主管克里斯蒂·卡弗。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Mark Behrman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Cheryl Maguire, our Chief Financial Officer; and Damien Renwick, our Chief Commercial Officer.

各位早安。今天和我一起出席的有：董事長兼執行長馬克·貝曼；財務長謝麗爾·馬奎爾；以及首席商務官達米安·倫威克。

Please note that today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current intent, expectations and projections. They are not guarantees of future performance and a variety of factors could cause the actual results to differ materially. For more information about the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied by forward-looking statements, please see the risk factors set forth in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K.

請注意，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於公司目前的意圖、預期和預測。它們並非對未來績效的保證，多種因素可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所預測或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱公司最新年度報告（10-K 表格）中列出的風險因素。

On the call, we will reference non-GAAP results. Please see the press release posted yesterday in the Investors section of our website, lsbindustries.com, for further information regarding forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP results to GAAP results.

在電話會議上，我們將提及非GAAP財務表現。有關前瞻性陳述以及非GAAP財務表現與GAAP財務表現的調節表，請參閱我們網站lsbindustries.com「投資者關係」專欄昨日發布的新聞稿。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mark.

現在，我想把電話交給馬克。

Thank you, Kristy, and good morning, everyone. As a company, we pride ourselves on safety first. And while our teams continue to focus on safe operations, as evidenced by our first nine months of the injury-free performance, it is with great sadness that I have to report that in early October, a contractor working on our Pryor facility was fatally injured. Our hearts go out to his family and colleagues. This is a tragic reminder about why we put safety first and the importance of the need to remain focused on safety in everything we do. I am confident that our team will learn from this tragedy as we work together to ensure that everyone on our sites remains safe every day.

謝謝Kristy，大家早安。作為一家公司，我們始終將安全放在首位。我們的團隊一直致力於安全運營，正如我們前九個月零事故記錄所證明的那樣，但令人悲痛的是，我不得不報告，10月初，一位在我們Pryor工廠工作的承包商不幸遇難。我們向他的家人和同事致以最深切的慰問。這起悲劇再次提醒我們，為什麼我們要把安全放在第一位，以及在所有工作中始終專注於安全的重要性。我相信，我們的團隊將從這場悲劇中吸取教訓，共同努力，確保我們所有工作場所的每位員工每天都能安全無虞。

With respect to third quarter financial results, market conditions remain constructive in both our industrial and fertilizer businesses. After increased CapEx spending in 2024 and through the first half of 2025, where we elected to execute on several growth projects, we are back to generating free cash flow. We expect to finish the year having generated solid free cash flow, and we're well positioned to keep investing in our strategic priorities. We recognize that there's more work to do and we see opportunities to continue to enhance our performance across the business.

就第三季財務表現而言，我們的工業和化肥業務市場環境依然良好。在2024年及2025年上半年增加資本支出（用於實施多個成長項目）後，我們已恢復自由現金流。我們預計全年自由現金流將保持穩健，並有能力繼續投資我們的策略重點領域。我們意識到仍有許多工作要做，並看到了進一步提升公司整體績效的機會。

Now I'll turn over the call to Damien to review current market dynamics and pricing trends. Damien?

現在我將把通話交給達米安，讓他分析一下當前的市場動態和價格趨勢。達米安？

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Turning to page 5. During the third quarter, we completed our transition out of high-density AN for fertilizers and into AN solution for explosives. This moves us towards our stated goal of optimizing our sales mix. As a result, we are now supplying 100% of our AN solution contractual obligations to our customers.

謝謝馬克，大家早安。請翻到第5頁。第三季度，我們完成了從高密度硝酸銨肥料產品向炸藥用硝酸銨溶液產品的過渡。這使我們朝著優化銷售組合的既定目標邁進。因此，我們現在能夠100%履行對客戶的硝酸銨溶液合約義務。

We continue to see strength in our industrial markets. Demand for AN for explosives is robust, particularly in the mining sector where strong gold and copper prices are boosting activity worldwide. Demand is also benefiting from quarrying aggregate production for infrastructure upgrade and expansion activity. We are seeing continued increases in domestic production of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate, or MDI, as a result of tariffs and antidumping duties on imported MDI. As a result, our nitric acid sales remain strong.

我們的工業市場持續保持強勁勢頭。炸藥用硝酸銨（AN）的需求十分旺盛，尤其是在採礦業，強勁的金價和銅價提振了全球採礦活動。此外，基礎設施升級和擴建所需的採石場骨材產量也促進了硝酸銨的需求。由於對進口二苯基甲烷二異氰酸酯（MDI）徵收關稅和反傾銷稅，國內MDI產量持續成長。因此，我們的硝酸銷售依然強勁。

Turning to page 6. Pricing for UAN averaged $336 per ton on a NOLA basis in Q3, up 65% over Q3 2024. Prices continue to be supported by steady exports, lower imports and strong demand leading to below average inventory levels throughout the US. We expect these favorable dynamics to continue in the near term and position us well as we head into 2026.

翻至第6頁。第三季度，尿素硝銨溶液（UAN）在NOLA地區的平均價格為每噸336美元，較2024年第三季上漲65%。穩定的出口、較低的進口以及強勁的需求持續支撐著價格，導緻美國各地庫存水準低於平均水準。我們預計這些有利因素將在短期內持續，並為我們邁入2026年奠定良好基礎。

Urea prices moderated somewhat during the quarter driven by the resumption of Chinese exports. However, with the results of the latest India urea tender now known, Chinese participation was minimal and it appears that future exports will once again be restricted, supporting tight supply and higher prices.

受中國恢復出口的推動，尿素價格在本季有所回落。然而，隨著最新一輪印度尿素招標結果的公佈，中國參與度極低，未來出口似乎將再次受到限制，這將導致供應緊張和價格上漲。

The ammonia market is healthy and pricing remains at attractive levels. Tampa ammonia increased by $60 to $650 per metric ton for the November settlement. Tampa ammonia has now increased by almost $260 per ton or 65% since hitting its 2025 low of $392 per ton in June.

氨市場行情良好，價格仍處於合理水準。 11月坦帕氨結算價上漲60美元，至每噸650美元。自6月觸及2025年低點每噸392美元以來，坦帕氨價格已累計上漲近260美元，漲幅達65%。

The market continues to be dictated by ongoing unplanned supply disruptions from the Middle East, the higher cost of production in Europe and continued delays in the start-up of new production capacity in the US. Increased natural gas curtailments and other issues in Trinidad are also maintaining the pressure on global supply. In the US, we expect to see a typical fall ammonia application season, subject to seasonal weather outcomes.

市場持續受到中東地區計畫外供應中斷、歐洲生產成本上升以及美國新產能投產延遲等因素的影響。特立尼達天然氣減產加劇及其他問題也持續給全球供應帶來壓力。在美國，我們預計秋季氨氣施用季將與往年同期持平，具體情況將視季節性天氣而定。

Now I'll turn the call over to Cheryl to discuss our third quarter financial results and our outlook.

現在我將把電話交給 Cheryl，讓她來討論我們第三季的財務表現和展望。

Thanks, Damien, and good morning. On page 7, you'll see a summary of our third quarter 2025 financial results. Solid third quarter volumes and net sales reflect the progress we are making on our reliability journey along with the absence of no planned turnaround activity during the quarter.

謝謝達米安，早安。在第7頁，您可以看到我們2025年第三季的財務表現摘要。第三季穩健的銷售量和淨銷售額反映了我們在提高可靠性方面的進展，同時也得益於本季沒有計畫內的檢修活動。

Page 8 bridges our third quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $17 million to our third quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $40 million. Higher pricing and increased sales volumes were somewhat offset by higher natural gas and other costs. Costs were higher in the third quarter, primarily related to the transition out of the HDAN business, along with higher maintenance and operating costs.

第 8 頁將我們 2024 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 1700 萬美元與 2025 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 4000 萬美元進行了銜接。更高的價格和銷售成長在一定程度上被更高的天然氣和其他成本所抵消。第三季成本較高，主要與 HDAN 業務的退出以及更高的維護和營運成本有關。

On page 9, you can see that our balance sheet remains solid with approximately $150 million in cash and net leverage at approximately 2 times. After several quarters of heavy investment, we are back to generating free cash flow with approximately $20 million of free cash flow generated year-to-date and approximately $36 million in the third quarter. And we expect to continue to build on that in the fourth quarter.

如第9頁所示，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，擁有約1.5億美元的現金，淨槓桿約2倍。經過幾季的大量投資，我們已恢復自由現金流，年初至今已產生約2,000萬美元的自由現金流，第三季約3,600萬美元。我們預計第四季將繼續保持這一成長勢頭。

Turning to the fourth quarter outlook. Tampa ammonia settled at $650 per metric ton for November, up from $590 per ton for October, and NOLA UAN has averaged above $300 per ton so far this quarter. Additionally, Henry Hub natural gas cost is averaging approximately $3.45 per MMBtu but is expected to trend higher as we approach seasonally cooler temperatures.

展望第四季度，坦帕氨價格11月穩定在每噸650美元，高於10月的每噸590美元；新奧爾良UAN氨價格本季迄今平均高於每噸300美元。此外，亨利樞紐天然氣價格平均約為每百萬英熱單位3.45美元，但隨著季節性氣溫下降，預計價格將走高。

With the transition of our HDAN business into industrial grade AN, approximately 35% of our natural gas costs are passed through in our selling price to customers. This provides improved visibility into our earnings profile. Overall, we'd expect the fourth quarter of 2025 to be higher than the prior year fourth quarter due to higher selling prices and higher production, somewhat offset by higher variable and other costs.

隨著我們的高密度硝酸銨（HDAN）業務轉型為工業級硝酸銨（AN），約35%的天然氣成本已轉嫁到客戶的銷售價格中。這提高了我們獲利狀況的透明度。整體而言，我們預計2025年第四季的業績將高於去年同期，這主要得益於更高的銷售價格和產量，但部分會被更高的變動成本和其他成本所抵銷。

And now I'll turn it back over to Mark.

現在我把麥克風交還給馬克。

Thank you, Cheryl. Page 10 is an overview of our low carbon project at our El Dorado facility. We continue to expect the technical review of our permit to be completed in the first quarter of next year with operations to then begin by the end of 2026. We're excited about this opportunity as we expect to generate approximately $15 million in annual EBITDA from the project, with the majority of it beginning in 2027. Our El Dorado CCS project is a good example of how our industry can decarbonize and provide customers with low-carbon ammonia and derivative products in a cost-effective manner.

謝謝Cheryl。第10頁概述了我們在El Dorado工廠的低碳專案。我們仍然預計許可證的技術審查將於明年第一季完成，隨後將於2026年底開始營運。我們對這個機會感到非常興奮，因為我們預計該計畫每年將產生約1500萬美元的EBITDA，其中大部分將於2027年開始產生。我們的El Dorado CCS專案很好地展示了我們行業如何以經濟高效的方式實現脫碳並為客戶提供低碳氨及其衍生產品。

We have made strong progress in the first nine months of 2025 driven by increased production volumes of ammonia, UAN and AN and expect to end the year in line with our total sales volume targets set out at the beginning of the year. We've also continued to successfully shift our sales mix towards more contractual industrial sales, which allows us to pass through natural gas cost to our customers and provides us with greater earnings stability and visibility. At the same time, we've reduced our outstanding debt, continue to maintain a healthy cash balance while we evaluate several growth opportunities and continue to invest in the reliability and efficiency of our plants.

2025年前九個月，在氨、尿素硝銨溶液（UAN）和硝酸銨（AN）產量成長的推動下，我們取得了顯著進展，預計全年總銷量將達到年初設定的目標。同時，我們持續成功地調整銷售結構，更多地轉向合約型工業銷售，這使我們能夠將天然氣成本轉嫁給客戶，並為我們帶來更高的獲利穩定性和可預測性。此外，我們降低了未償債務，在評估多個成長機會的同時，繼續保持健康的現金餘額，並持續投資於提升工廠的可靠性和效率。

I remain extremely optimistic about the future of our company, both for the remainder of the year and looking ahead to 2026. The market outlook remains robust, and we are well positioned to continue to improve our operational and financial performance while delivering sustainable growth and profitability.

我對公司的未來依然充滿信心，無論是今年剩餘還是展望2026年。市場前景依然強勁，我們已做好充分準備，在實現永續成長和獲利的同時，持續提升營運和財務表現。

Before we open it up for questions, I'd like to mention that we will be participating in the NYSE Industrials Virtual Conference on November 18 and 19. We look forward to speaking with some of you at this event.

在正式開始提問環節之前，我想先提一下，我們將參加11月18日和19日舉行的紐約證券交易所工業虛擬會議。我們期待在這次會議中與各位交流。

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now be happy to take your questions. Thanks.

我們的發言到此結束，現在我們很樂意回答各位的問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

（操作說明）盧卡斯·博蒙特，瑞銀集團。

So I just wanted to sort of start on the ammonia market. I mean it's been tight sort of with the limited supply and the ammonia contracts continue to kind of move higher. I mean sort of depending on what we assume there for December, it looks like pricing could be up $130 sequentially, if not more into the fourth quarter. So I guess just kind of what's your view on the market there generally to begin with. And then assuming we see sort of a large kind of increase somewhere in that range, how should we think about that flowing through to your fourth quarter pricing?

所以我想先談談氨市場。我的意思是，由於供應有限，市場一直很緊張，氨合約價格也持續上漲。根據我們對12月份的預期，價格環比可能會上漲130美元，甚至在第四季還會上漲更多。所以我想先了解您對氨市場的整體看法。假設我們看到價格在這個範圍內大幅上漲，我們該如何看待這種漲幅對第四季定價的影響？

Lucas, so at a high level, it is a tight supply and demand market globally. On top of that, clearly, we've got some issues going on in Trinidad that are affecting the market today and could have long-term effects on the market. I think also, while it's a little early, we feel like we're going to have a really healthy fall ammonia application season. So I think everything is really setting up to have good demand certainly in the United States and globally. A bit tighter supply, and that's why you're seeing pricing move up.

盧卡斯，總的來說，全球市場供需緊張。此外，顯然特立尼達島目前存在一些問題，這些問題正在影響市場，並可能對市場產生長期影響。我認為，雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但我們預計今年秋季氨肥施用季將會非常火爆。因此，我認為一切跡像都表明，美國乃至全球的需求都將十分旺盛。供應略顯緊張，這就是價格上漲的原因。

But I'll let Damien give a little bit more color on the market itself.

不過，我還是讓達米安來更詳細地介紹市場本身吧。

Yes. Lucas, again, like Mark said, this is a story about lack of supply more than anything else. You've got issues in the Middle East with the Ma'aden plant in Saudi Arabia having a very extended outage for a significant volume of tons, other issues as well. And then you've got the news coming out of Trinidad with production coming out of the market for who knows how long. And the market is just reacting to that.

是的。盧卡斯，就像馬克說的那樣，這歸根結底還是供應短缺的問題。中東方面，沙烏地阿拉伯的麥德龍工廠停產時間過長，大量原油無法生產，還有其他一些問題。此外，特立尼達也傳來消息，原油產量將長期處於停產狀態，且停產時間長短未知。市場對此做出了反應。

So how long does that continue for? Well, look, it will continue for as long as that supply is out of the market. And then the wild card is when does the new capacity come online in the US Gulf. And there's indications that some of that could be up later this year or early next year. But who knows? The proof will be in the pudding when that happens.

那麼這種情況會持續多久呢？嗯，只要市場上的供應充足，這種情況就會持續下去。而最大的變數在於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新產能何時投入使用。有跡象表明，部分產能可能會在今年稍後或明年年初投入使用。但誰也說不準。一切都要等到那時才能見分曉。

And I think just to add on to that, I mean, while it has been well known that, that production is coming online and we can have some more supply in the marketplace, I think the wild card now is Trinidad and what happens there and could that offset all or just partial some of that new supply coming on.

而且我認為，需要補充的是，雖然眾所周知，生產即將上線，市場上的供應量也會增加，但我認為現在最大的變數是特立尼達，那裡的情況會如何，能否抵消全部或部分新增供應。

Yes. And Lucas, in terms of how that pulls through in the financial results, as you know, we are tied to Tampa ammonia. And so you will see that pull through in our pricing for the fourth quarter.

是的。盧卡斯，至於這會對財務表現產生怎樣的影響，正如你所知，我們與坦帕氨氣息息息相關。因此，你會看到第四季的定價會受到這種影響。

Right. And then I guess just thinking about UAN as we're kind of headed into the spring here. So I mean, we've sort of been seeing some sort of softness in pricing there a bit as urea has sort of come off and we're out at a kind of high period of seasonal demand so far. So I mean, it seems like that's probably going to continue to soften here a bit through the fourth quarter. But last year, we had pretty strong price increases and tight local supply-demand conditions as we sort of got into the spring. So I was just wondering if you guys could talk us through how you see that set up the 2026 there.

好的。然後我想說的是，隨著春季的臨近，尿素硝銨溶液（UAN）的價格走勢也出現了一些疲軟，因為尿素需求有所下降，而目前正值季節性需求高峰期。所以我覺得，這種疲軟的趨勢可能會持續到第四季。但去年春天，尿素硝銨溶液的價格上漲幅度相當大，而且本地供需關係也較緊張。所以我想請教各位，你們如何看待2026年的市場狀況？

Well, look, Lucas, I think we're a little more optimistic on UAN. We're well sold forward. Are prices softening at the moment? I mean, yes, sure, urea has softened a little bit. But I think that's set up for a recovery shortly as that market tightens as Chinese exports exit their short entry in the last few months.

嗯，盧卡斯，我覺得我們對尿素硝酸銨溶液（UAN）的前景比較樂觀。我們已經做了許多遠期合約。目前價格有走軟嗎？我的意思是，是的，尿素價格確實有所下降。但我認為，隨著中國出口在過去幾個月結束空頭頭寸，市場供應趨緊，尿素價格很快就會反彈。

And then the UAN market, I think, producers are pretty comfortable here in the US. We all came out of last season with very little inventory and there's been turnarounds, et cetera, in the last few months. And I think that tight supply is set up to continue. And we're confident that prices will be pretty healthy heading into Q1 and then into Q2 into the application season.

至於尿素硝銨溶液（UAN）市場，我認為美國生產商目前的情況相當樂觀。上個季度結束時，我們的庫存都非常低，而且過去幾個月也出現了一些調整等等情況。我認為供應緊張的局面還會持續下去。我們有信心，進入第一季和第二季施用季後，價格將保持健康水準。

Right. And just wanted to ask one on the volume side. So there's a bit of noise this year sort of with the shift in the turnaround timing and kind of just the impact on sort of volume and the product mix between 3Q and 4Q. It seemed that was probably like flowing through to sort of costs in a few different ways as well. So I was just wondering if you could kind of help us understand sort of the impact that you saw there in the third quarter and how you see the set up for the fourth quarter on the sort of the volume and the cost side due to that.

好的。我還想問一個關於銷量方面的問題。今年由於週轉時間的變化，第三季到第四季之間銷售和產品組合都受到了一些波動。這似乎也從幾個方面影響了成本。所以我想請您幫我們分析一下您在第三季觀察到的影響，以及您認為這些影響將如何影響第四季的銷售和成本。

Yes. So I mean, if we're thinking about the third quarter, we did have some mix changes flowing through with the transition of HDAN into AN solution for the industrial markets. We did see some higher costs related to that. I believe that's what you're alluding to.

是的。我的意思是，如果我們回顧第三季度，隨著HDAN向工業市場AN解決方案的過渡，我們的產品組合確實發生了一些變化。我們也看到一些相關的成本上升。我想這就是您所指的。

Part of that is, look, we're switching railcars and with that comes higher maintenance costs as we move and change out the fleet. We've got to restore the other cars to original state, which does lead to some higher maintenance costs. And you do see that pull through in the third quarter.

部分原因是，我們正在更換鐵路貨車，隨之而來的是更高的維護成本，因為我們需要遷移和更換車隊。我們必須將其他貨車恢復到原始狀態，這確實會導致更高的維護成本。而這些成本確實會在第三季顯現出來。

As we're thinking about the fourth quarter, I think we would expect to see our ammonium nitrate, nitric acid volumes kind of in line with the third quarter. Ammonia as well and UAN, I would suspect, would be a bit higher in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter.

展望第四季度，我認為硝酸銨和硝酸的銷售量應該與第三季基本持平。氨和尿素硝銨溶液（UAN）的銷量，我估計第四季會比第三季略高一些。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Wong, RBC.

（操作員說明）Andrew Wong，RBC。

With the stronger industrial demand which appears to be continuing, how does that impact your negotiating position for contracts and the margins you're able to secure?

鑑於工業需求持續走強，這會對您在合約談判中的地位以及您能夠獲得的利潤率產生怎樣的影響？

That's a tough question, that one, Andrew. Look, I think it's really going to depend on when those particular contracts expire and what's happening at the time. I mean, at any one time, we do have contracts rolling off, but they are typically smaller than some of our more substantial ones which are under longer-term duration. So again, it would just come down to the specific situation. I think at the moment, prices are healthy and the broader happenings with Tampa ammonia and natural gas makes the environment well set up to maintain or even increase prices if and when contracts expire.

安德魯，這確實是個棘手的問題。你看，我認為這主要取決於這些特定合約何時到期以及屆時的具體情況。我的意思是，任何時候我們都會有一些合約到期，但它們的規模通常比一些期限更長、金額更大的合約要小。所以，最終還是要看具體情況。我認為目前價格狀況良好，坦帕氨氣和天然氣的整體情況也為維持甚至推高價格創造了有利條件，即使合約到期，價格也可能上漲。

Yes. I would just say that healthy overall nitrogen prices certainly help negotiating new contracts or renewal of new contracts when they come up for sale.

是的。我只想說，健康的氮肥價格總體上肯定有助於新合約的談判或續約。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just in terms of growth for LSB, just given that stronger industrial backdrop, is that a path that we can expect to see LSB take in terms of spending on more upgrade capacity? And if you were to take that path, do you maybe need to have some sort of backstop on like longer-term contracts to guarantee a certain return on those projects?

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。那麼就LSB的成長而言，鑑於更強勁的產業環境，我們是否可以預期LSB會增加對升級產能的投資？如果選擇這條路，是否需要簽訂一些長期合約之類的保障措施，以確保這些項目獲得一定的回報？

Yes. Andrew, we're constantly looking at ways that we can increase our production capacity. So we did a urea expansion up at our Pryor facility. There is a second urea expansion that is in the early stages of evaluation. And that might not necessarily just go to UAN. We could enter the DEF market, which would be an industrial product. So I think we're evaluating whether we want to do that or not.

是的，安德魯，我們一直在尋找提高產能的方法。我們在普賴爾工廠擴建了一條尿素生產線。目前還有一條尿素生產線擴建計畫正在早期評估階段。而這條生產線的產品不一定只用於生產尿素硝銨溶液（UAN）。我們可能會進入柴油引擎廢氣處理液（DEF）市場，這是一種工業產品。所以，我們正在評估是否要這樣做。

At El Dorado, we've talked in the past about an ammonia expansion there, and that ammonia expansion would probably add in the neighborhood of 100,000 tons. So we are down the pathway to evaluate and really do our engineering studies to see if that really makes sense for us. Would we backstop that? I think at 100,000 tons, we're probably pretty comfortable. If we did a big expansion, I think we would want to backstop it as is a lot of our risk aversion for trying to lock in some returns for the investment of capital. So I think we're not prepared yet to talk about the expansion. I think we'll wait until we get through our engineering studies. And then if it makes sense and the Board supports it, then we'll certainly announce it.

在埃爾多拉多，我們之前討論過氨氣產能擴建，預計新增產能約10萬噸。目前我們正在進行評估，並進行工程研究，以確定該專案是否真的適合我們。我們會為此提供資金支持嗎？我認為10萬噸的產能，我們應該比較放心。如果進行大規模擴建，我們肯定會尋求資金支持，因為我們非常注重規避風險，希望鎖定投資回報。所以，我認為我們目前還不宜討論擴建事宜。我們會等到工程研究完成後再做決定。如果擴建方案可行，董事會也支持，我們當然會正式宣布。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

Two, if I may. First, on the industrial market side of your business, can you just give a baseline for your seasonality going into next year with the current mix of contracts? And then how do you think about extending the amount of preselling if there is any sort of fly up in ammonium nitrate prices?

第二個問題，如果可以的話。首先，就貴公司工業市場業務而言，您能否根據目前的合約組合，大致估算一下明年季節性波動的情況？其次，如果硝酸銨價格有任何上漲，您打算如何考慮擴大預售規模？

And secondly, with El Dorado, what's your current thoughts around changing your offtake structure or signing more offtake agreements as the project gets closer to completion?

其次，關於 El Dorado 項目，隨著項目接近完成，您目前對改變承購結構或簽署更多承購協議有什麼想法？

Well, Damien, I'll let you handle the first one.

達米安，第一個問題就交給你處理吧。

Yes. Okay. So seasonality, Laurence, most of the offtake through the year is fairly ratable. We do see some seasonality in our AN industrial business for explosives. And that's simply related to weather. I mean, we've got sales up into the northern parts of the US and into Canada. And when it gets cold, it becomes more difficult for those miners to blast. And so that does mitigate some of that demand. But we're well set up to manage that with our current infrastructure and arrangements with our customers.

是的，好的。勞倫斯，關於季節性，我們全年大部分的銷售量都比較穩定。不過，我們的工業炸藥業務確實存在一些季節性波動，這主要與天氣有關。我的意思是，我們的產品銷往美國北部和加拿大。天氣轉冷時，礦工爆破作業就會變得更加困難，因此這確實會抑制部分需求。但憑藉我們現有的基礎設施和與客戶的合作安排，我們完全有能力應對這種情況。

As far as the project at El Dorado, Laurence, are you referring to the carbon capture and sequestration project? Or are you referring to if we were to expand our ammonia production capacity?

勞倫斯，關於埃爾多拉多項目，您指的是碳捕獲和封存項目嗎？還是指我們擴大氨生產能力的項目？

Sticking to the CCS project.

堅持推進CCS項目。

Yes. So the CCS project, we've already got a negotiated per ton of CO2 sequestered rate with our partner, Lapis Energy. So that's already locked in. And as you know, we're generating the CO2 today. We're just venting it in the air. So the project here is to capture it, dehydrate it, compress it and then sequester it in a well that is actually already drilled on our property.

是的。關於碳捕集與封存（CCS）項目，我們已經和合作夥伴Lapis Energy就每噸二氧化碳封存的價格達成了協議，價格已經確定。如您所知，我們目前正在產生二氧化碳，只是將其排放到空氣中。所以這個計畫的目標是捕獲這些二氧化碳，對其進行脫水、壓縮，然後將其封存在我們土地上已經鑽好的井中。

So the real gating item here is just the permit, the Class VI permit from the EPA to allow Lapis to really sequester the CO2. Obviously, once we get that, we need to build a compression facility. But again, there are lots of those around the world and so that's not complicated technology. So whether we sign additional AN solution contracts or nitric acid customer contracts for those products at a premium, the team is working on that and certainly engaged in conversations with customers.

所以真正的瓶頸在於許可證，也就是美國環保署頒發的六級許可證，它允許Lapis公司真正封存二氧化碳。顯然，一旦我們拿到許可證，就需要建造一座壓縮設施。但話說回來，世界各地有許多這樣的設施，所以這項技術並不複雜。至於我們是否會以溢價與客戶簽訂額外的硝酸溶液合同或硝酸合同，團隊正在努力，並且一直在與客戶進行洽談。

The other thing that we could do, and we spent a fair amount of time looking at, is you could sell in the interim the environmental attribute. And there's a value to that as well. So I think we're looking at all avenues to monetize the low-carbon ammonia and the environmental attribute that is associated with that.

我們還可以做另一件事，我們也花了不少時間研究，那就是暫時出售其環境屬性。這同樣具有價值。所以我認為我們正在探索所有途徑，將低碳氨及其相關的環境屬性貨幣化。

(Operator Instructions) Rob McGuire, Granite Research.

（操作說明）羅伯·麥奎爾，花崗岩研究公司。

Could you please talk about UAN volumes? It looks like they're down around from 150,000 to about 135,000 year-over-year.

請問您能談談UAN的交易量嗎？看起來比去年同期下降了大約13.5萬筆，比去年同期減少了15萬筆左右。

Yes, Rob. So we did have a bit of miss on our UAN production in the third quarter. I would say we didn't quite meet our expectations. We would expect to be in line with our expectations in the fourth quarter.

是的，羅布。第三季我們的尿素硝酸銨溶液（UAN）產量確實略有下降。可以說，我們沒有完全達到預期。我們預計第四季能夠達到預期。

Okay. Great. And then can you talk -- what's your revenue mix of ag versus industrial now that your HDAN is being sold as ANS into the mining markets?

好的，太好了。那麼您能否談談—既然您的HDAN產品現在以ANS的名義銷往礦業市場，那麼您的農業收入與工業收入的比例是多少？

Hard to look at it on a revenue basis, Rob, because revenue is really going to be driven by what the pricing looks like at any given time. I think it's probably better to look at it from a volume or a tons perspective. And so I think from the industrial side, we're probably 40% to 45% with the balance being on the ag market side.

羅布，很難從收入的角度來分析這個問題，因為收入很大程度取決於當時的定價。我認為從銷量或噸位來看可能更好。所以，我認為工業市場佔比大概在40%到45%，其餘部分在農業市場。

And then you talked about the proposed antidumping duties on imported MDI. Can you just give us a little more color around the dynamics around that topic?

然後您談到了擬議對進口MDI徵收反傾銷稅的問題。您能否再詳細介紹一下圍繞這一主題的動態？

Yes. Rob, so that evaluation is currently working its way through all the typical formal proceedings here in the US. I think there's a preliminary determination that's out there and we're awaiting the formal determination. And that will then officially put in place the antidumping duties on Chinese MDI.

是的，羅布，目前這項評估正在美國按部就班地進行，走完所有常規的正式程序。我想已經有初步裁定公佈了，我們正在等待正式裁定。正式裁定公佈後，將正式對中國MDI徵收反傾銷稅。

And so the effect of that is we're seeing domestic producers ramp up their MDI production as much as possible. And nitric acid is a raw material into that production chain, which is pretty complex, so I won't try and explain it to you. But yes, so we're seeing some pull-through there and certainly efforts to increase production where possible.

因此，我們看到國內生產商正在盡可能地提高MDI的產量。硝酸是這條生產鏈中的一種原料，這條生產鏈相當複雜，我就不贅述了。但確實，我們看到這方面有所進展，而且各方都在努力盡可能地提高產量。

Wonderful. And then just one last question. Can you give us an update on your value creation initiatives? Mark, you told us about what may be up and coming, but just of what's left, where you're at in terms of your progress?

太好了。最後一個問題。您能為我們介紹一下您的價值創造計畫的最新進展嗎？馬克，您之前提到了一些即將推出的項目，但對於剩餘的項目，您目前的進展如何？

Oh boy, we have a lot left. So I would say on our reliability and maintenance efforts, we've still got a fair amount of opportunity out there. So maybe we're somewhere between 25% and 50% complete with that. But I think I really do believe we have a lot of opportunity to not only improve our reliability and therefore the production tons, but do it in a much more efficient manner, so lower cost. And so we're focused on both of those.

哎呀，我們還有很多工作要做。就可靠性和維護工作而言，我們還有相當大的進步空間。或許我們目前只完成了25%到50%的工作。但我相信，我們不僅有很大的機會提高可靠性，進而提高產量，還能以更有效率的方式降低成本。因此，我們正專注於這兩方面。

When it comes to profit optimization. I think we outlined that there was probably $20 million or so that we expect to come from that. And we're somewhere, again, between 40% and 50% when it comes to that.

就利潤優化而言，我認為我們之前已經概述過，預計能從中獲得約2000萬美元的收入。而就這部分而言，我們的完成度大概在40%到50%之間。

As far as some of the other initiatives that we have, I think the greatest thing about all of this is we're like kids in a candy store here. I mean, every day, we're trying to solve for issues or improve the overall profitability of the company. And you sort of peel that onion back and then you find two other things that you can work on to really create value. So I think it's a never-ending process, to be honest. But I think we'll give a lot more color, Rob, on our fourth quarter conference call, our year-end conference call of exactly where we are and what we expect to achieve in 2026.

至於我們其他的一些舉措，我認為最棒的一點是，我們就像進了糖果店的孩子一樣。我的意思是，我們每天都在努力解決問題，或提高公司的整體獲利能力。就像剝洋蔥一樣，一層層往下看，你又會發現兩三件可以著手做、真正創造價值的事情。所以說實話，我認為這是一個永無止境的過程。不過，羅布，我想我們會在第四季財報電話會議和年終電話會議上更詳細地介紹我們目前的狀況以及我們對2026年目標的預期。

Mr. Behrman, we have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

貝曼先生，我們目前沒有其他問題了。我想把發言權交還給您，請您做總結陳詞。

Great. Well, as always, thank you, everyone on the call, for their interest and great questions. As you can tell, we're really excited about the business and where the markets are today. And so stay tuned. Thanks so much.

太好了。一如既往，感謝所有參與電話會議的朋友們，感謝你們的關注和提出的精彩問題。正如你們所見，我們對公司業務以及當前的市場狀況感到非常興奮。敬請期待。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。