LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Rebecca, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the LXP Industrial Trust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn the call over to Heather Gentry, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Welcome to LXP Industrial Trust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. The earnings release was distributed this morning and both the release and quarterly supplemental are available on our website at www.lxp.com in the Investors section and will be furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K.

Certain statements made during this conference call regarding future events and expected results may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. LXP believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions.

However, certain factors and risks, including those included in today's earnings press release and those described in reports that LXP files with the SEC from time to time could cause LXP's actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements.

Except as required by law, LXP does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. In the earnings press release and quarterly supplemental disclosure package, LXP has reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Any references in these documents to adjusted company FFO refer to adjusted company funds from operations available to all equity holders and unitholders on a fully diluted basis. Operating performance measures of an individual investment are not intended to be viewed as presenting a numerical measure of LXP's historical or future financial performance, financial position or cash flows.

On today's call, Will Eglin, Chairman and CEO; and Nathan Brunner, CFO, will provide a recent business update and commentary on fourth quarter results. Brendan Mullinix, CIO; and James Dudley, Executive Vice President and Director of Asset Management, will be available for the Q&A portion of this call.

I will now turn the call over to Will.

Thank you, Heather. Good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter marked the conclusion of a successful year, driven by meaningful achievements in leasing, healthy occupancy gains, strategic property sales and continued progress strengthening our balance sheet.

We delivered on our key operating objectives in 2025, notably reducing leverage from 5.9 times to 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA and increasing occupancy 350 basis points to 97.1%. Additionally, we leased nearly 5 million square feet in 2025 with attractive mark-to-market outcomes of approximately 28% on a cash basis, excluding fixed rate renewals.

We were encouraged to see market fundamentals continue to improve during the fourth quarter with our target markets driving over 66% of the overall US net absorption of about 54 million square feet. Larger users made up the bulk of the demand, favoring facilities exceeding 500,000 square feet that were built within the last five years.

Several of our target markets, including Phoenix, Indianapolis, Fort Worth, and Houston led this demand. Reflective of an improving leasing market, in the fourth quarter, we leased over 2 million square feet at attractive base and cash-based rental increases of approximately 27% and 23%, respectively, excluding fixed rate renewals.

We've also made good progress on our 2026 expirations. To date, we have addressed roughly 3 million square feet or 41% of our total 2026 rollover, achieving an average cash rental increase of approximately 28%, excluding two fixed rate renewals. On the sales front, we exited five non-target markets in 2025 and continue to prioritize investing in our 12 target markets, which currently account for 87% of our gross book value.

Total disposition volume for the year was $389 million, including $116 million from non-target market sales in the fourth quarter with an average cash capitalization rate of 5.7% on stabilized assets sold during 2025. This volume included the sale of our Indianapolis and Ocala development properties to a user buyer in September at an implied capitalization rate of approximately 5% and a 20% premium to our cost basis.

The capital generated from asset sales was primarily deployed to strengthen our balance sheet by reducing high coupon debt. Additionally, we acquired one property in Atlanta for a 1031 exchange requirement in September and repurchased approximately 277,000 shares at an average price of $49.47 in December 2025 and January 2026.

At year-end, we held approximately $170 million in cash on our balance sheet. While cash balances are currently weighing on earnings, we believe liquidity is valuable as we head into a period where we can create significant value in our land bank. Strengthening our balance sheet was one of our primary objectives in 2025.

We successfully accomplished this goal and entered 2026 in a strong financial position. Our capital allocation priorities will now primarily focus on disciplined investment and external growth opportunities, mainly in our land bank and executing opportunistic share repurchases provided they don't impact the balance sheet progress we made in 2025.

Acquisition activity is expected to be limited to 1031 exchanges, which may happen from time to time as we exit nontarget markets. Through our development program, we have developed 15 facilities since 2019 at a 7.1% weighted average stabilized yield on first-generation leases and generated sale proceeds of $91 million in excess of our cost basis. At year-end, our development program was 98% leased or sold.

We have continued to closely monitor market fundamentals where we own development land, evaluating both build-to-suit and speculative development opportunities. In the West Valley of Phoenix, where we own a 315-acre land site, we have observed an acceleration in leasing activity for facilities over 1 million square feet. 18 months ago, there were 10 1 million square foot buildings available in the West Valley.

Since then, eight of these buildings have leased or sold to users and the remaining two are in advanced stages of negotiations. Consequently, there will be no 1 million square foot facilities available in the West Valley and nothing is currently under construction.

In addition, construction costs are roughly $20 per square foot lower than they were at the market peak. With this favorable backdrop, we will be breaking ground on a 1 million square foot spec project on our Phoenix land site. Project completion is anticipated for the first half of 2027 with an estimated budget of $120 million and a stabilized cash yield within a range of 7% to 7.5%.

In summary, we successfully executed our core strategic initiatives in 2025, including enhancing our balance sheet, addressing vacancy at our three big box development properties, increasing portfolio occupancy and achieving attractive leasing outcomes.

In 2026, our priorities will center on strategic capital deployment, specifically pursuing disciplined growth opportunities and making opportunistic share repurchases, leasing our remaining vacancies and generating robust mark-to-market outcomes.

Our high-quality portfolio, consisting primarily of Class A assets in the Sunbelt and Lower Midwest is well positioned to benefit from improving market fundamentals and the positive momentum associated with advanced manufacturing investments.

I'll now turn the call over to Nathan, who will provide a more detailed overview of our financials, leasing activities and balance sheet.

Thanks, Will. Adjusted company FFO in the fourth quarter was $0.79 per diluted common share or approximately $47 million. For the full year, we produced adjusted company FFO of $3.15 per diluted common share or $187 million.

This morning, we announced our 2026 adjusted company FFO guidance range of $3.22 to $3.37 per common share, which represents 4.6% growth at the midpoint. This guidance assumes the proceeds from the properties sold in the fourth quarter will be redeployed into the development project in Phoenix.

Although these asset sales and capital redeployment are a drag to 2026 FFO, that will be a source of earnings growth in future years. Our guidance does not assume any other dispositions or investment activity.

Our portfolio occupancy increased to 97.1% at year-end compared to 93.6% at year-end 2024, primarily reflecting the successful outcomes for the three big box development properties in 2025. Turning to the same-store portfolio. Full year same-store NOI growth was 2.9% and flat in the fourth quarter when compared to the same time period in 2024.

Consistent with our commentary on our last earnings call, our fourth quarter same-store NOI growth reflects lower occupancy in the same-store portfolio of 97.3% as of year-end 2025 versus 99.5% in 2024. We are estimating 2026 same-store NOI growth to be within a range of 1.5% to 2.5%.

At the midpoint of 2%, the components of same-store growth include a positive contribution of 3.25% from contractual rental escalators and lease renewals, offset by a 1.25% impact associated with lower occupancy and higher rent concessions in the form of free rent. Our 2026 guidance range assumes average occupancy for the same-store pool of 96% to 97% versus average occupancy for the same pool of properties of just over 97% in 2025. The low end of our adjusted company FFO and same-store guidance assumes $500,000 of credit loss.

G&A was approximately $11 million in the quarter, with full year 2025 G&A of $40 million within our expected range. We expect 2026 G&A to be within a range of $39 million to $41 million, broadly in line with 2025.

Turning to leasing. Our current mark-to-market on leases expiring through 2030 and second-generation vacancy is compelling with in-place rents approximately 16% below market based on brokers' estimates. As a reminder, this mark-to-market metric is inclusive of fixed rate renewals.

With respect to 2025 expirations, during the fourth quarter, we secured a new 10-year lease with 3.5% annual rental bumps at our 380,000 square foot facility in the Indianapolis market. The lease expired in July, but the previous tenant held over through the end of September.

The new lease yielded a 34% increase in rent over the prior rent. The positive contribution of this new lease to same-store NOI growth will be recognized beginning in the second half of 2026, reflecting concessions associated with the 10-year lease term.

At year-end, the tenant at our 160,000 square foot facility in Phoenix moved out. This is a modern building with highway frontage, and we expect the re-leasing of the building to produce a 40% to 50% rental increase.

Moving on to 2026 expirations. We signed two leases during the quarter, including our 650,000 square foot facility in Cleveland and 769,000 square foot facility in St. Louis. Both were subject to fixed rate renewals with 2.5% and 1.5% annual escalators, respectively.

The extension of these leases is positive for occupancy and uninterrupted cash flow, particularly given the absence of leasing concessions. Additionally, we renewed our 194,000 square foot facility in Cincinnati and a 70,000 square foot facility in the Greenville-Spartanburg market, generating cash rent spreads of approximately 15% and 7%, respectively.

For the first half of 2026, we have two known move-outs, including 121,000 square feet at our multi-tenant facility in Greenville Spartanburg that expired at the end of January and a 230,000 square foot facility in Tampa scheduled to expire this month. The Tampa facility is in an infill location within the sought-after Sable Business Park. There are no other properties of this size available in the market currently.

Given the older vintage of the facility, we will be undertaking some renovations, including the addition of rail capabilities, which we expect to result in a rent increase of 10% to 20% over the existing rent. We have assumed in our same-store growth guidance that this property remains vacant for 2026.

Our 600,000 square feet of redevelopment projects in Orlando and Richmond are progressing well. Completion of the Richmond project is expected in the second quarter, while Orlando is now slated for the third quarter. Both properties are anticipated to produce yields on cost in the low teens.

Our balance sheet is in terrific shape with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 4.9 times at year-end. Reflecting this strength, S&P Global Ratings revised LXP's outlook to positive in the fourth quarter. Over the course of the year, we repaid approximately $220 million of debt, which included $140 million of our 6.75% senior notes due 2028 pursuant to a cash tender offer in the fourth quarter.

Subsequent to quarter end, we recast our $600 million revolving credit facility and $250 million term loan, extending the initial maturities to January 2030 and January 2029, respectively. The new debt facilities extend our debt maturity profile and reduce interest costs, further advancing the progress we made on the balance sheet in 2025.

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Will.

Thanks, Nathan. In closing, we're pleased with the success we had in 2025 and are focused on building on our momentum in 2026. While it has been several years since we've seen attractive development opportunities that make sense for LXP, we're excited to capitalize on improving market dynamics by pursuing disciplined external growth opportunities. At the same time, we remain focused on leasing and producing favorable mark-to-market outcomes that drive enhanced value for shareholders.

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator.

(Operator Instructions) Jim Kammert, Evercore.

Will, interesting on your planned development here in Phoenix, the Reams and Olive. I'm just curious, obviously, it sounds like the market definitely improved. Do you have a quiet list of prospects that you're talking to already? I mean this is a big project.

It is a large project, Jim, and the supply-demand equation there is really favorable for us as is the lower construction costs. So it wouldn't be surprising to me if there was interest in the facility before it's finished. And there are prospects hunting for that size space now, and there really aren't any choices.

So we think it's an extremely good setup for us and almost the best one that I've seen candidly. Interesting. And you're using about 65 acres, if I interpret your presentation materials. So you're left with like net 240, so there could be more in the future development?

Yeah.

Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Maybe for Nathan, I just wanted to ask about the full year same-store NOI growth, the 2.9%. It was unchanged in the quarter. For the full year, though, it came in a touch below your prior forecast, 3% to 3.5%, which was revised lower last quarter from 3% to 4%. I'm just curious in terms of the trends later in the year, what drove that miss versus your budget, if you could talk about that a little bit.

Yeah. Thanks, Todd. So actually, our year-end same-store occupancy of 97.3% was actually within the range of expectations that the 3% to 3.5% range was set on. The difference between the final result of the 2.9% and the low end of guidance of 3% was about $200,000. That variance was primarily driven by marginally higher property expense leakage across about half a dozen properties.

Some of them -- two or three of them are vacant properties where we're carrying the full OpEx burden and two or three of them are leased properties that have property expense caps in the leases where we had some unbudgeted expenses that ultimately went through the caps.

Okay. That's helpful. Is that expense leakage, is that -- you didn't mention that when you talked about the same-store forecast for '26. Is that expected to continue to weigh on '26 to some extent? And then you did mention that concessions are acting as a little bit of an offset to the base rent and escalators in '26.

Are concessions a little bit greater than previously anticipated? And can you maybe speak to the environment for concessions more broadly?

Sure. I'll take the first piece, and then I'll hand it to James to talk about concessions and the environment. On the first piece, we certainly updated our budgeting for the property expenses that we experienced in Q4 and reflected that in the guidance that we put out this morning.

So on the concession piece, I would just say that the market is changing pretty rapidly. And if you look at what happened in anything that was done in the first half of last year and really into the third quarter, there are some pretty high-level concessions just because the supply-demand outlook was a little bit softer than it is now.

Over the last six months, we've had a massive amount of space get taken down. We've had vacancy rates in most of our markets start to either flatten and in many cases, start to decline. So I do think the concessions will continue to be a part of the story, but I do think we're in an environment where some of the concessions that were given 12 months ago will start to recede and soften a bit, and we'll get into a situation that's a little bit more landlord favorable.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just lastly, I wanted to ask about transaction activity and capital allocation a little bit. It sounds like acquisitions going forward will be driven by dispositions. And just wanted to get your thoughts on what that might look like and the potential to exit more nontarget markets in '26. And maybe you can speak to how that activity might stack up versus additional stock buybacks.

Sure. Well, as you can see, we've been methodically working our way through that portfolio of assets outside of our 12 target markets and taking our time and being sure that we're maximizing value and match funding those proceeds to enhance shareholder value. So often, there's an asset management project involved as a gating item before maximizing value.

And I would say there's a couple of hundred million of assets in that portfolio where there are negotiations underway that could lead to a very good outcome. So none of that is in our guidance, but it could create some great outcomes that would give us some capital to redeploy as the year progresses.

We have to be careful about managing tax gain as we do that. But we're in a good position of liquidity to begin with. So buyback has been appealing after we address the need to bring our leverage down. But in terms of new development, we think the shareholder value is more interesting from that perspective than buyback at the moment, but there has been room for some buyback activity.

Vince Tibone, Green Street.

I wanted to follow up a bit more on the cash same-store NOI guide. I believe you said, Nathan, it's going to be about 3.25% contribution from both contractual bumps and spreads. And I believe contractual bumps are just south of 3%. So it doesn't seem like spreads are going to be much of a contributor.

So maybe you can just talk about -- I'm guessing fixed rate renewals are going to drag that figure down you cited from the 28% spreads on '26 rollovers you already mentioned. But I guess how can we think about spreads with the fixed renewals or contribution to spreads in '26. Because it seems to be pretty minimal given that data point I just cited.

Yeah, Vince, I'll go first and just -- I just want to clarify the 3.25%, and then I'll hand it to James to talk about the '26 spreads. But the 3.25% positive contribution is the contractual rent escalators, which you right are about 2.8% on average across the portfolio.

And the second component is just the renewal rent spreads. So that's the positive contribution. And then the 1.25% we talked about in prepared remarks reflects the lower average occupancy across the portfolio, which actually captures a combination of new leases on vacant spaces we have today or move-outs that we might experience offset by the drag from vacancy.

So it actually captures some of the rent spread activity around new leases. So it's a little bit of a bucketing as to whether it goes into the first category or the second category, but that first category is just the renewals. James, do you want to talk about the '26 spreads?

Yeah, I can. So yes, we had two really large fixed rate renewal options that did put a pretty good drag on it. So we've got the 28% cash for 2025, which included quite a bit of the 2026 that was done. And if you put those back in, it's about a 14.5% mark-to-market. So that shows you the delta between the two when you include the fixed rate renewal options.

The good news is we're pretty much through those at this point for 2026. We have two small ones at the end of the year, which we expect to renew, but we've gotten past those now. So hopefully, we'll start to see some higher mark-to-market numbers holding with more ability to fully mark those rents to market.

That's really helpful color. And then just curious how you thought about the average occupancy guide in terms of retention you're assuming for some of the larger expirations in the back half of the year, but also just if you could touch on some of the activity on some of the vacancies that you've had for a bit longer that I think when we spoke at NAREIT, you were having some activity on. So just curious how you're budgeting those. And if you can just talk broadly or quickly on some of the activity in some of the existing vacancies in the portfolio.

Sure. For retention, I mean, we're feeling pretty good about it at this point. We've already chopped a lot of that wood and gotten through the big potential vacancies with renewals. I mean two of them were the fixed rate renewal options that I just mentioned. So we feel pretty good about our retention numbers for the balance of 2026.

And then looking to 2027, we feel like we're going to have a nice retention there as well. We've got a number of big leases rolling, but we feel like we'll retain those tenants and should be back to more of a typical LXP clip at that high retention rate with 2025 being an anomaly.

On the vacancy side, we continue to have activity across our vacancies. It's just -- it continues to be a real challenge to get deals done, lots of RFP traffic, lots of tenant tours, lots of interest, and it's really just getting them across the finish line. I think that we will make some good progress this year on the vacancy that we have.

And as a reminder, there's a really good opportunity there to mark those rents up in the mid-30s if we can get those deals done.

Nikita Bely, JPMorgan.

Any comments -- I know you just did a bigger spec development, but anything on the build-to-suit front. Some of the companies in the net lease space, seemingly they're increasingly getting to the industrial BTS deals. Does that pose more competition for you guys down the line? And I don't know if that's something that you'd consider given this large expected spec deals going on right now?

Yeah, sure. Why don't I take that? This is Brendan. Yeah, I think the build-to-suit space remains interesting to us and it's probably looking -- the supply dynamic is making it look more encouraging, particularly in our land bank. So there may be more competition from some of those other players.

But since we do have a land bank, that puts us in a more favorable position than many of those guys looking to finance build-to-suit. So the dynamic you see is as supply comes out of the market of existing specfilled space that we remove that competition.

So we've been pretty actively responding to build-to-suit over the last couple of years, in fact, in our land bank. But in many cases, some of those deals didn't make, but the ones that did proceed, we were competing against existing supply. So that factor is encouraging for us, and we've been responding.

And in particular, in Columbus, which has tightened significantly in Phoenix, we've been responding to build-to-suit inquiries as well. So we'll look at both. As those fundamentals have improved, we will consider spec, but we absolutely will continue responding to build-to-suit.

Was there an option to do a build-to-suit maybe for the land site in Phoenix and maybe wait a little bit longer? I mean was there any urgency to do a spec deal versus doing a build-to-suit maybe at some point down the line if you were able to get someone locked up?

Well, as we looked at it, the supply dynamics, the lack of competing supply made that very compelling. And then the other piece of it is that we're strategically taking advantage of what I think will probably turn out to be a particularly attractive construction pricing window here before competing supply starts starting. So it's really twofold. It's not just supply/demand, but it's also very attractive construction pricing. And the combination of that was very compelling for us to start on a spec basis.

Like Will said, I would not be surprised if we could potentially have an early conversion and maybe it turns into a build-to-suit. But both options continue to look good there, and we'll continue to respond to build-to-suit at that site. And to get back to Jim's comment earlier, actually, like this initial site is going to be approximately 75 acres. We've planned a little over 5 million square feet at our site in Phoenix. So there's a lot of runway beyond the building that we're starting.

Got it. Can I ask maybe more modeling question. What's your bad debt assumption for '26 that you guys have in guidance? And how does that compare to '25?

Nikita, so we continue to have a very good track record on credit loss. We didn't have any credit loss in 2025. In the guidance, we included $500,000 in the low end only. We looked at some of the stress that's happening in certain sectors and a matter of prudence and bringing ourselves in line with some of the peers, we decided to make a little bit of credit loss in the low end.

All right. Thanks, guys.

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call back over to Will Eglin for closing remarks.

We appreciate everyone joining our call this morning, and we look forward to updating you on our progress over the balance of the year. Thanks again for joining us today.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.