LiveWire Group Inc (LVWR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley-Davidson 2024 fourth-quarter investor and analyst conference call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Sean Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加哈雷戴維森 2024 年第四季投資者和分析師電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我想將會議移交給肖恩柯林斯。謝謝。先生，請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website.

謝謝。早安.我是哈雷戴維森投資者關係總監肖恩·柯林斯。您可以在哈雷戴維森投資者關係網站上存取支援今天電話會議的幻燈片。

As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and in our latest filings with the SEC.

正如您所料，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天的收益報告中和向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件中指出的事項。

Joining me for this morning's call are Harley-Davidson, Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz; also Chief Financial Officer, Jonathan Root; and we have LiveWire's Chief Executive Officer, Karim Donnez.

參加今天早上電話會議的還有哈雷戴維森首席執行官 Jochen Zeitz；還有首席財務官喬納森·魯特 (Jonathan Root)；還有 LiveWire 的首席執行官 Karim Donnez。

With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

現在，讓我將話題轉交給我們的執行長 Jochen Zeitz。約亨？

Thank you, Shawn. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. In the fourth year of our hardware strategy, we saw our performance being significantly impacted by continued cyclical headwinds for discretionary products, including the high interest rate environment affecting consumer confidence and creating affordability issues for our customers.

謝謝你，肖恩。大家早安，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。在我們實施硬體策略的第四年，我們發現我們的業績受到非必需品持續週期性逆風的嚴重影響，包括高利率環境影響消費者信心並給客戶帶來負擔能力問題。

While we were unable to achieve our original guidance of '24, given the overall environment, we continue to make progress in the execution of the key elements of our strategic plan, that we believe will set the business up best for future profitable growth when the market turns.

雖然我們未能實現最初對 24 年的預期，但考慮到整體環境，我們在執行戰略計劃的關鍵要素方面繼續取得進展，我們相信，當市場轉向時，這將為業務未來的盈利增長奠定最佳基礎。

That said, in the fourth quarter, the macroenvironment contributed to a decline of 15% in global retail sales. Our seasonally lowest quarter of the year, with North America posting a 13% decline and our other international regions declining a combined 17%.

儘管如此，第四季宏觀環境導致全球零售額下降15%。這是我們今年季度業績最低的一個季度，其中北美地區下降了 13%，其他國際地區合計下降了 17%。

For the full year, we ended '24 with a global retail sales decline of 7%. In the face of industry headwinds, the launch of our new model year '24 Street Glide and Road Glide Touring motorcycles contributed to near 5% growth in the US Touring segment and drove Harley-Davidson share to almost 75%, an increase of 3.5% since 2023.

就全年而言，我們24年的全球零售額下降了7%。面對業界逆風，我們推出的新款 24 款 Street Glide 和 Road Glide Touring 摩托車推動美國旅行車市場成長近 5%，並推動哈雷戴維森的份額達到近 75%，自 2023 年以來增長了 3.5%。

It's worth noting that over the year, Harley-Davidson was the only manufacturer to gain meaningful Touring segment market share in the US with our share of the overall 601+CC market being slightly up based on the segment that we completed.

值得注意的是，在過去一年中，哈雷戴維森是唯一一家在美國旅行摩托車細分市場中獲得有意義份額的製造商，並且根據我們完成的細分市場，我們在整個 601+CC 市場中的份額略有上升。

Nearly 12 months after the launch of our model year '24 Touring motorcycles, we continue to receive very positive feedback from customers, media and dealers. In December, Cycle World voted the CVO Road Glide ST, the best cruise of '24.

在我們的 24 款旅行摩托車推出近 12 個月後，我們繼續收到來自客戶、媒體和經銷商的非常正面的回饋。12 月，《Cycle World》將 CVO Road Glide ST 評為 '24 年度最佳巡航機車。

Also in December, Motorcycle.com voted the Street Glide as the best bike of '24. The launch of these Touring motorcycles was one of the primary product strategies within our profit-focused pillar of Hardwire. And our volume and financial results would have been dramatically impacted negatively without them.

此外，在 12 月，Motorcycle.com 將 Street Glide 評選為 '24 年度最佳摩托車。這些旅行摩托車的推出是我們以利潤為中心的 Hardwire 支柱下的主要產品策略之一。如果沒有他們，我們的銷售和財務表現就會受到極大的負面影響。

Through the fourth quarter, we continued to trim inventory by reducing the motorcycle production wholesale significantly, ending the year slightly below '23 year-end levels. We believe this has set us up well for further significant inventory reduction, especially in the first half of the year that Jonathan will walk you through in a little bit.

在整個第四季度，我們繼續大幅減少摩托車生產批發以削減庫存，年底庫存略低於 23 年年底水準。我們相信，這為進一步大幅減少庫存奠定了基礎，特別是在今年上半年，喬納森稍後會向大家詳細介紹。

Providing more detail on our delivery against our Hardwire pillars for the year. Tying to profit focus, we've continued to emphasize our core products while investing in key product segments for the future. These actions are underpinned by our belief that focusing on our most profitable categories and geographies, emphasizing innovation and evolving the customer experience with our dealers, we continue to yield benefits to the business that set the business up for long-term value creation.

提供有關我們今年針對 Hardwire 支柱的交付情況的更多詳細資訊。圍繞著利潤重點，我們繼續強調我們的核心產品，同時投資未來的關鍵產品領域。這些行動基於我們的信念：專注於我們最賺錢的類別和地區，強調創新並不斷改進我們經銷商的客戶體驗，我們將繼續為企業帶來利益，為企業的長期價值創造奠定基礎。

'24 can be seen as the year of two halves. Retail sales of the Touring segment was up 18% in the first half of the year, led by the redesigned Touring platform in North America. And despite a decline of 4% for overall retail sales in North America for the full year, retail sales of the Touring segment finished the year up more than 8%. As mentioned earlier, we've taken share within Touring with Harley-Davidson achieving 74.5% market share in the Touring segment in the US, the highest number since 2019.

'24 可以看作是兩個半的一年。在北美重新設計的 Touring 平台的帶動下，Touring 車型的零售額在上半年成長了 18%。儘管全年北美整體零售額下降了 4%，但旅行車細分市場的零售額卻增加了 8% 以上。如前所述，我們在旅行車領域佔據了份額，哈雷戴維森在美國旅行車領域的市佔率為 74.5%，這是自 2019 年以來的最高數字。

Touring is the heart of Harley-Davidson and our mission of the timeless pursuit of adventure. Remember, back in 2020, there was no plan for Touring nor for any other core product segment. We quickly took the decision to change that, with Touring becoming part of the first pillar of our Hardwire strategic plan.

旅行是哈雷戴維森的核心，也是我們永恆追求冒險的使命。請記住，在 2020 年，還沒有針對旅行或任何其他核心產品領域的計劃。我們很快就決定改變這種狀況，巡迴演出成為我們 Hardwire 策​​略計畫的第一大支柱。

Through '24, we continue to invest in our strongest and most profitable motorcycle segments. And we are planning for more impactful and new products to hit the market every year from here on that were originated as part of our strategy.

到2024年，我們將繼續投資於我們最強大和最賺錢的摩托車領域。我們計劃從現在開始每年推出更多具有影響力的新產品進入市場，這些都是我們策略的一部分。

It's important to recognize that the decisions we've taken as part of our Hardwire strategy have allowed us to reestablish our profitability while ensuring we have the right product pipeline for years to come. Without the Hardwire priorities, we would currently be faced with a portfolio of uncompetitive products with a vast majority of our motorcycles achieving negative operating income margins with the motor company likely having little to no profitability.

重要的是要認識到，作為 Hardwire 策​​略的一部分，我們所做的決策使我們能夠重建獲利能力，同時確保我們在未來幾年擁有正確的產品線。如果沒有 Hardwire 的優先考慮，我們目前將面臨缺乏競爭力的產品組合，其中絕大多數摩托車的營業收入利潤率為負，摩托車公司可能幾乎沒有盈利能力。

Selective expansion redefinition underpins our desire to win in attractive markets and motorcycle segments, where we are focused on building our leadership. We are investing and have ambitions for our entry-level motorcycle offering in select markets and the small Cruiser segment starting next year.

選擇性擴張的重新定義鞏固了我們在有吸引力的市場和摩托車領域中獲勝的願望，我們專注於建立我們的領導地位。我們正在投資並計劃從明年開始在特定市場和小型巡洋艦市場推出入門級摩托車。

Adventure Touring was also a new segment for the company, aligned to this strategic initiative. We believe this segment has future growth potential for us, and we are committed to continue to innovate with the platform. A proof point being the recently launched Pan America ST that will be landing dealerships shortly, ahead of its debut in the Marvel Studios' Thunderbolts film, premiering May 2.

探險旅遊也是公司的一個新業務領域，與此策略舉措一致。我們相信這一領域具有未來的成長潛力，我們致力於繼續利用該平台進行創新。一個證明點是最近推出的 Pan America ST，它將在 5 月 2 日首映的漫威影業《雷霆特工隊》電影中首次亮相之前，很快就登陸經銷商處。

Turning to growth beyond bikes, we are committed to creating products, services and experiences that inspire our customers to discover adventure and live the Harley-Davidson Lifestyle. '24, so build-out of capabilities for our custom-build apparel, ensuring that our dealers are able to access the best in customer power from Harley-Davidson.

除了摩托車之外，我們還致力於創造新產品、新服務和新體驗，激勵我們的客戶探索冒險，享受哈雷戴維森的生活方式。 '24，從而增強我們訂製服裝的能力，確保我們的經銷商能夠從哈雷戴維森獲得最好的客戶支援。

Looking ahead, we expect for these capabilities to reach our international network this year. Leveraging the power of the Harley-Davidson brand in '24, we are also proud to partner with Champion for the second time in the company's history. Looking forward, we will continue to look for brand collaborations that will connect with our customers and communities, while at the same time expanding on our licensing opportunities globally as a brand.

展望未來，我們預計這些功能將在今年涵蓋我們的國際網路。借助24年哈雷戴維森品牌的實力，我們也非常榮幸能夠在公司歷史上第二次與冠軍合作。展望未來，我們將繼續尋求能夠與我們的客戶和社群建立聯繫的品牌合作，同時擴大我們作為品牌在全球範圍內的授權機會。

Creating integrated customer experiences ensures our customers have a seamless experience with our brand. '24, we've continued our digital investments, adding more impactful features and benefits on new models, combined with an all-new digital experience on hd.com, focused on improving engagement, lead capture and ultimately with the intention of driving more traffic to our dealers. These efforts led to a 177% increase in the number of engagements with motorcycle paces for the model year '25 launch.

創造全面的客戶體驗可確保我們的客戶獲得無縫的品牌體驗。 '24，我們繼續在數位領域進行投資，在新車型上增加了更多有影響力的功能和優勢，並結合hd.com上的全新數位體驗，專注於提高參與度、潛在客戶獲取，最終旨在為我們的經銷商帶來更多流量。這些努力使得 25 年車型的發表會上與摩托車車隊的接觸次數增加了 177%。

Turning to the physical experience that is integral to the brand. We've continued to invest in our experiences and offering by strengthening our events across the globe and better aligning our efforts with those of our dealers. '24, we held our second annual homecoming event in Milwaukee with over 60,000 riders, fans, and motor enthusiasts joining us to celebrate the Harley Davidson brand. We are looking forward to homecoming '25 this July with an incredible talent lineup.

轉向對品牌至關重要的實體體驗。我們透過加強全球活動以及更好地協調我們的努力與經銷商的努力，持續投資於我們的經驗和產品。 '24，我們在密爾瓦基舉辦了第二屆年度返校活動，超過 60,000 名騎手、粉絲和摩托車愛好者參加了此次活動，共同慶祝哈雷戴維森品牌。我們期待今年 7 月與一群才華橫溢的藝術家一起參加 '25 回家活動。

The Harley-Davidson Riding Academy, or HDRA, is an important initiative for the company. Operating in 225 dealerships across 43 states, making it the largest rider training network in the US and the only nationwide rider licensing program sponsored by a motorcycle manufacturer. '24, we were proud to hit 1 million riders trained celebrating the 25th anniversary this year.

哈雷戴維森騎行學院（HDRA）是該公司的重要舉措。在 43 個州的 225 家經銷店開展業務，是全美最大的騎手培訓網絡，也是唯一由摩托車製造商贊助的全國性騎手授權計劃。 '24，今年正值慶祝25週年，我們很榮幸能夠達到100萬名訓練有素的騎手。

Promoting rider education and training for both experience and new riders is an important part of the overall riding ecosystem. Harley-Davidson, we are committed to building ridership and deepening our connection with customers, ultimately reinforcing our position as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world.

促進對有經驗的騎手和新騎手的教育和培訓是整個騎行生態系統的重要組成部分。哈雷戴維森，我們致力於擴大客戶群並加深與客戶的聯繫，最終鞏固我們作為全球最受歡迎摩托車品牌的地位。

Turning to cost productivity. As we covered with Q3 earnings, we've taken further steps to tighten OpEx across the organization without negatively impacting demand driving initiatives for our core segment. One example of this is difficult choices we've made in headcount. Comparing end of Q4 '24 to the end of Q4 '23, salaried head count is down by 7%. While '24 includes employee severance expense, this run rate favorability will display itself more fully in '25.

轉向成本生產力。正如我們在第三季收益中所述，我們已採取進一步措施，在整個組織內收緊營運支出，同時不會對核心部門的需求驅動計畫產生負面影響。其中一個例子就是我們在員工人數上所做的艱難選擇。與 2023 年第四季末相比，2024 年第四季末受薪員工數量下降了 7%。雖然 24 年包括員工遣散費，但這種運作率的有利因素將在 25 年得到更充分的體現。

In addition, Jonathan will cover our cost productivity performance for the year and we continue to execute very well in that area. Since announcing that focus, we achieved $257 million in productivity savings.

此外，喬納森將負責我們今年的成本生產力表現，我們在該領域繼續表現優異。自宣布這一重點以來，我們已實現了 2.57 億美元的生產力節約。

Cost productivity continued to be a positive contributor to cash flow. We remain pleased with the cash flow generation of Harley-Davidson delivering operating cash flow of well over $1 billion in '24, nearly a 40% increase from prior year. '25, we plan to display further cost progress across the P&L.

成本生產力持續對現金流產生正面影響。我們對哈雷戴維森的現金流產生感到滿意，24年的營運現金流遠超 10 億美元，比前一年增長近 40%。 '25，我們計劃在損益表中展示進一步的成本進展。

We believe OpEx productivity will allow us to run with flat to slightly down OpEx even after an increased focus on marketing continued product investments. Additionally, we expect our cost productivity target to deliver approximately $100 million of additional savings in '25.

我們相信，即使在更注重行銷並持續進行產品投資之後，營運成本生產力也能讓我們的營運成本持平或略有下降。此外，我們預計我們的成本生產力目標將在25年帶來約1億美元的額外節省。

I would like to now comment on our new model year launch. The '25 model year campaign, we revealed all new and refreshed motorcycles for this year's lineup with products released sitting squarely within our product focus and selective expansion strategic focus. Harley-Davidson cruiser motorcycle lineup includes six new models with significantly improved performance in technology.

我現在想對我們新車型的年度發布會進行評論。在 25 車型年活動中，我們展示了今年系列的所有新款和改進的摩托車，發布的產品完全符合我們的產品重點和選擇性擴展戰略重點。哈雷戴維森巡洋艦摩托車系列包括六款新車型，技術性能顯著提升。

Additionally, for '25, we updated the powerful Sportster S model. For its 26th year, we introduced the collection of limited production CVO motorcycles that includes four models.

此外，針對'25 年，我們更新了強大的 Sportster S 車型。在 26 週年之際，我們推出了包含四種型號的限量生產 CVO 摩托車系列。

Lastly, new for this year are the Street Glide Ultra, a fully equipped long-haul Touring model complementing our new Touring lineup as well as the previously mentioned Pan America's 1250 ST Venture Sport motorcycle. Both incredible machines with video suggesting that the Harley-Davidson Street Glide Ultra might be the most capable American tourer in the market.

最後，今年的新產品是 Street Glide Ultra，這是一款配備齊全的長途旅行車型，補充了我們的新旅行系列以及前面提到的 Pan America 的 1250 ST Venture Sport 摩托車。這兩款令人難以置信的機器的影片表明哈雷戴維森 Street Glide Ultra 可能是市場上最強大的美國旅行車。

We also continue to be excited about the adventure sport category and its application to racing. January, we celebrated Joan Pedrero's extraordinary performance in the Africa Eco Race where he secured first place in the 1,000 CC plus category. This win is a groundbreaking moment that showcases the Harley-Davidson Pan America capability and versatility in a class of its own.

我們也繼續對冒險運動類別及其在賽車中的應用感到興奮。一月份，我們慶祝了瓊·佩德雷羅 (Joan Pedrero) 在非洲生態賽中的出色表現，他在 1,000 CC 以上級別比賽中奪得第一名。這場勝利是一個開創性的時刻，展現了哈雷戴維森泛美公司獨一無二的能力和多功能性。

Additionally, we were pleased to see Team Saddlemen Harley-Davidson rider Cory West take the 24 Super Hooligan Championship on his race prepared Pan America 1250, showing the versatility of the platform.

此外，我們很高興看到 Team Saddlemen Harley-Davidson 車手 Cory West 駕駛他駕駛的 Pan America 1250 贏得了第 24 屆 Super Hooligan 錦標賽，展示了該平台的多功能性。

Performance in racing continued to be key differentiators across our product portfolio, and we'll continue to expand on our rating efforts in the US and beyond. To support our model year launch, we've adapted our marketing approach specifically to drive dealership traffic and improve alignment on key messages within our dealer channel rather than spending significant funds on teasing and pushing the global launch as we did before.

賽車性能仍然是我們產品組合的關鍵差異化因素，我們將繼續擴大我們在美國及其他地區的評級工作。為了支持我們今年的車型發布，我們專門調整了行銷方式，以推動經銷商流量並改善經銷商通路內關鍵資訊的一致性，而不是像以前一樣花費大量資金進行預告和推動全球發布。

For this reason, we launched the marketing development fund, a new initiative designed to drive leads, foot traffic and customer transactions and conversions in our network. Driven by a desire to complement dealer marketing spend adding additional financial support from the motor company, we believe the marketing development fund will not only strengthen collaboration between the motor company and the dealer network, but also for the effective change management to drive growth.

為此，我們推出了行銷發展基金，這是一項旨在推動我們網路中的銷售線索、客流量以及客戶交易和轉換的新舉措。為了補充經銷商的行銷支出並獲得汽車公司的額外資金支持，我們相信行銷發展基金不僅可以加強汽車公司和經銷商網路之間的合作，而且還可以透過有效的變革管理來推動成長。

This commitment by Harley-Davidson represents the single largest marketing investment on behalf of the company on a per unit and absolute basis in our history. While it has only just been launched, we've seen strong uptake through the network. As we have said previously, the health of the dealer network remains critical.

哈雷戴維森的這項承諾代表了公司歷史上單位數量和絕對數量的最大單筆行銷投資。雖然它才剛剛推出，但我們已經看到網路的強勁成長。正如我們之前所說，經銷商網路的健康仍然至關重要。

We've taken many steps through our '24 to support the network through this challenging environment, and we're taking further actions into '25 to continue our support for the network. Jonathan will provide more detail on guidance.

我們在24年採取了許多措施來支持網路度過這一充滿挑戰的環境，我們將在25年採取進一步行動，繼續為網路提供支援。喬納森將提供更多指導細節。

We are realistic and cautious not having reliable signals yet in either direction as we start the year. Hence, our guidance to flat retail sales for the year, positive performance skewed towards the second half.

我們是現實的和謹慎的，在新年伊始，我們尚未收到任何方向的可靠訊號。因此，我們預計今年零售額將持平，下半年將出現正面表現。

I know that the decisions we've made and the bold actions we have taken as part of our Hardwire strategy are continuing to strengthen our foundation for the future. The industry has faced many headwinds over the past couple of years, impacting at all levels from OEM to dealer to customer, but we believe we are best positioned to take advantage of any uptick in consumption.

我知道，我們所做的決定和作為 Hardwire 策​​略的一部分所採取的大膽行動將繼續加強我們未來的基礎。過去幾年，該行業面臨許多阻力，影響到從原始設備製造商到經銷商到客戶的各個層面，但我們相信，我們最有能力利用消費的成長。

Additionally, we will continue to explore any and all opportunities for transformational change, and we are committed to achieving our Hardwire profit targets over time soon as we are seeing tailwinds in consumption of discretionary products in the 2-wheel and overall power sports industry.

此外，我們將繼續探索一切轉型變革的機會，並且隨著我們看到兩輪車和整體動力運動行業非必需產品消費的順風，我們致力於很快實現 Hardwire 的利潤目標。

Assuming a slightly improved outlook in '26, we expect to deliver solid improvement in margin performance. The actions that we've taken in '24, coupled with expectations for '25, in '26, we expect to balance retail, production and wholesale. We now expect that this will allow us to deliver double-digit margin in '26, climbing to our 15% target in the years following due to a combination of factors, including expected slight volume growth supported through exciting product portfolio launches every year.

假設26年的前景略有改善，我們預期利潤率表現將大幅改善。我們在24年採取的行動，加上對25年和26年的預期，我們預計將能夠平衡零售、生產和批發。我們現在預計，這將使我們在26年實現兩位數的利潤率，並在接下來的幾年裡攀升至15％的目標，這得益於多種因素，包括每年令人興奮的產品組合推出所支持的預期輕微銷量增長。

Lastly, tariffs are on everybody's mind. Not having a clear view of what is to come, when and for how long, we've not yet incorporated any new tariffs in our outlook. We believe we have and are continuing to take all possible actions to mitigate the impact of tariffs and will continue to take precautionary measures where possible. That said, with neither production in Canada or Mexico and 100% of our bikes in our core product segments are manufactured in the US.

最後，每個人都關心關稅問題。由於不清楚接下來會發生什麼、什麼時候發生以及持續多久，我們尚未在展望中納入任何新的關稅。我們相信我們已經並將繼續採取一切可能的行動來減輕關稅的影響，並將在可能的情況下繼續採取預防措施。話雖如此，但我們的核心產品領域中的自行車 100% 均在美國製造，加拿大和墨西哥均不生產。

Those motorcycles manufactured in our US plants and in partnership with our skilled union workforce account for the vast majority of our profits in the US business and most of our sourcing also being US-centric. We'll provide more detail once we have a more complete tariff picture. Any discriminatory tariffs against Harley Davidson, the great American icon, returning in Europe, we plan to fight aggressively with all means available and call for reciprocal treatment for all motorcycles imported into the US.

我們在美國工廠生產的摩托車以及與我們熟練的工會勞動力合作生產的摩托車佔了我們在美國業務的絕大部分利潤，而且我們的大部分採購也以美國為中心。一旦我們獲得更完整的關稅情況，我們將提供更多細節。我們計劃採取一切手段積極反擊針對美國偉大標誌哈雷戴維森在歐洲徵收的任何歧視性關稅，並呼籲對進口到美國的所有摩托車實行互惠待遇。

Thank you, and I'll now hand it over to Karim for more detail on LiveWire.

謝謝，現在我將把話題交給 Karim，讓他提供更多有關 LiveWire 的詳細資訊。

Thanks, Jochen. Good morning, everyone. LiveWire concluded '24 with an operating loss of $110 million and 612 revenue units, both within the range of our revised guidance. In the electric motorcycle segment. LiveWire global retail performance grew by 46% year over year with LiveWire maintaining its leadership position with a 65% market share in the US 50-plus horsepower on road EV segment.

謝謝，約亨。大家早安。LiveWire 24 年度的營運虧損為 1.1 億美元，收入單位為 612 個，均在我們修訂後的指引範圍內。在電動摩托車領域。LiveWire 全球零售業績年增 46%，在美國 50 匹馬力以上公路電動車領域保持 65% 的市場份額，保持領先地位。

Turning to our StaCyc segment. Despite the decrease in StaCyc total unit sales driven largely by reduced sales to third-party distributors, the US market saw significant growth. StaCyc recorded a 21% increase in US dealer sales and a 20% increase in US online sales. Strategic initially implemented during the year enabled the company to achieve a cash burn below target for '24. We expect these efforts to reduce 2025 total cash used by operating and investing activities by about 40%, which we expect to be $60 million or less.

轉向我們的 StaCyc 部門。儘管 StaCyc 的總銷量下降主要是由於對第三方分銷商的銷售額減少，但美國市場仍實現了顯著增長。StaCyc 的美國經銷商銷售額成長了 21%，美國線上銷售額成長了 20%。年內最初實施的策略使公司24年的現金消耗低於目標。我們預計，這些措施將使 2025 年營運和投資活動所用現金總額減少約 40%，即 6,000 萬美元或更少。

Looking ahead to '25, LiveWire entered the year with four models in the market, including three built on our S2 platform and as announced at EICMA in Q4, plans for an electric maxi-scooter in the first half of '26 with a primary focus on the European market. The company's commitment to innovation and market expansion would be evident by planned new products on both the electric motorcycles and StaCyc segments designed to appeal to a broader global customer base. We believe these initiatives position the company to enter new market segments and enhance its competitive edge.

展望 25 年，LiveWire 在年初已在市場上推出了四款車型，其中三款基於我們的 S2 平台打造，並且正如在第四季度的 EICMA 上宣布的那樣，計劃在 26 年上半年推出一款電動大型踏板車，主要關注歐洲市場。該公司致力於創新和市場擴張的承諾從計劃推出的電動摩托車和 StaCyc 領域的新產品中可見一斑，這些產品旨在吸引更廣泛的全球客戶群。我們相信這些舉措將使公司進入新的細分市場並增強其競爭優勢。

Now I'll hand it over to John.

現在我將它交給約翰。

Thank you, Karim, and good morning to all. I plan to start on page 4 of the presentation, where I will briefly summarize the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. Subsequently, I will go into further detail on each business segment. Let me start with consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. Consolidated revenue in Q4 was down 35%, driven mainly by HDMC revenue being down 47% and partially offset by HDFS revenue growth of 4%.

謝謝你，卡里姆，大家早安。我計劃從簡報的第 4 頁開始，簡要總結 2024 年第四季和全年的財務表現。隨後，我將對每個業務部門進行更詳細的介紹。首先，我來介紹一下 2024 年第四季的綜合財務表現。第四季綜合營收下降 35%，主要原因是 HDMC 營收下降 47%，但 HDFS 營收成長 4% 部分抵銷了這一下降。

Consolidated operating loss in Q4 was $193 million, which compares to an operating loss of $21 million in Q4 of 2023. This was driven by an operating loss of $214 million at HDMC while HDFS operating income of $46 million was unfavorable by $12 million relative to a year ago. The operating loss at LiveWire was $26 million, which was in line with our expectations and $9 million favorable relative to a year ago.

第四季綜合營業虧損為 1.93 億美元，而 2023 年第四季的營業虧損為 2,100 萬美元。這是由於 HDMC 的營業虧損為 2.14 億美元，而 HDFS 的營業收入為 4,600 萬美元，較去年同期減少 1,200 萬美元。LiveWire 的營業虧損為 2,600 萬美元，符合我們的預期，比去年同期減少了 900 萬美元。

As a reminder, we expected the fourth quarter to be a reduced quarter from a profit standpoint at the Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment. This is a result of the intentional reduced wholesale shipments in Q4 as part of preparation for the new model year product launch in January of this year and our commitment to not grow the dealer inventory year over year.

提醒一下，我們預計從哈雷戴維森摩托車公司部門的利潤角度來看第四季將會下降。這是因為，為了準備今年 1 月推出的新車型，我們有意減少第四季的批發出貨量，並承諾不讓經銷商庫存逐年增加。

Again, I plan to go into further detail on each business segment's profit and loss drivers in the next section. In Q4, earnings per share was a loss of $0.93 and which is down from a profit of $0.18 in Q4 of 2023.

再次，我計劃在下一節中進一步詳細介紹每個業務部門的獲利和虧損驅動因素。第四季每股收益虧損 0.93 美元，低於 2023 年第四季的利潤 0.18 美元。

Turning to full-year 2024 financial results on page 5. Consolidated revenue of $5.2 billion was 11% lower compared to last year, while consolidated operating income of $417 million was 47% lower than last year.

請參閱第 5 頁的 2024 年全年財務表現。綜合收入為 52 億美元，較去年下降 11%，綜合營業收入為 4.17 億美元，較去年下降 47%。

Full-year 2024 consolidated revenue performance was as follows: at HDMC revenue decreased by 15%, at HDFS; revenue increased by 9%; and at LiveWire, revenue declined by 31%. The full-year 2024 consolidated operating income of $417 million compares to $779 million of consolidated operating income in 2023.

2024 年全年綜合收入表現如下：HDMC 收入下降 15%，HDFS 收入下降；收入增加9%； LiveWire 的收入下降了 31%。2024 年全年綜合營業收入為 4.17 億美元，而 2023 年綜合營業收入為 7.79 億美元。

Business segment performance was as follows: at HDMC, operating income of $278 million was 58% lower than prior year; at HDFS, operating income of $248 million was 6% higher than prior year; and at LiveWire, an operating loss of $110 million was 6% favorable to prior year. For the full-year 2024 earnings per share was $3.44 and compares to $4.97 in 2023.

業務部門表現如下：HDMC 的營業收入為 2.78 億美元，比上年下降 58%； HDFS 的營業收入為 2.48 億美元，比上年增長 6%； LiveWire 的營業虧損為 1.1 億美元，較上年同期下降 6%。2024 年全年每股收益為 3.44 美元，而 2023 年為 4.97 美元。

Now turning to page 6, an HDMC retail performance. As Jochen already mentioned, in Q4, global retail sales of new motorcycles were down 15% versus the prior year. This is a continuation of the trend of the began at the start of Q3 and continued to play out through the second half of 2024, where we saw an increasingly difficult global market environment in our and other big-ticket discretionary sectors. Macroeconomic uncertainty, continued inflationary pressures, and the pressure of high interest rates affected both our industry and our customers, especially in our core markets.

現在翻到第 6 頁，HDMC 零售表現。正如 Jochen 所提到的，第四季全球新摩托車零售量較前一年下降了 15%。這是從第三季初開始的趨勢的延續，並持續到 2024 年下半年，我們看到我們和其他高價非必需品產業的全球市場環境日益艱難。宏觀經濟的不確定性、持續的通膨壓力以及高利率壓力影響了我們的產業和客戶，尤其是在我們的核心市場。

In North America, Q4 retail sales declined by 13%, while international retail sales, excluding Canada, declined by 17% year over year. In EMEA, Q4 retail sales declined by 7%, driven by weakness in Germany and the surrounding region. EMEA continued to be adversely impacted by overall macroeconomic conditions. For the full-year 2024, EMEA retail sales were down 11%, where a majority of the retail weakness was in noncore motorcycles. The Touring category was up 10% on the year.

北美地區第四季零售額較去年同期下降13%，除加拿大以外的國際零售額較去年同期下降17%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，受德國及週邊地區經濟疲軟影響，第四季零售額下降 7%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續受到整體宏觀經濟狀況的不利影響。2024 年全年，EMEA 地區零售額下降 11%，其中大部分零售疲軟發生在非核心摩托車上。旅行類別較去年同期成長了 10%。

In Asia Pacific, Q4 retail sales declined by 26% as the region has remained weak since the second half of 2023. The Q4 retail sales decline was driven by weakness in Japan and China with Australia and New Zealand turning in a positive Q4.

在亞太地區，第四季度零售額下降了 26%，因為該地區自 2023 年下半年以來一直保持疲軟。第四季零售額下降是由於日本和中國的疲軟，而澳洲和紐西蘭第四季零售額則出現正成長。

For the full-year 2024, Asia Pacific retail sales were down 18%, with market characteristics broadly consistent with that seen in Q4. The softness was most acute in Japan and China, whereas both Australia and New Zealand as well as India, were up modestly.

2024年全年，亞太地區零售額下降18%，市場特徵與第四季大致一致。日本和中國的疲軟最為明顯，而澳洲、紐西蘭和印度均小幅上漲。

In Latin America, Q4 retail sales declined by 7% and where both Brazil, our largest Latin American market and Mexico were down, while other Latin American countries were up year over year in Q4. For the full-year 2024, Latin American retail sales were flat, where Brazil was down marginally and Mexico was up marginally.

在拉丁美洲，第四季零售額下降了 7%，其中我們最大的拉丁美洲市場巴西和墨西哥均下滑，而其他拉丁美洲國家第四季則較去年同期成長。2024 年全年，拉丁美洲零售額持平，其中巴西小幅下降，墨西哥小幅上漲。

For the full-year 2024, global retail sales of new motorcycles were down 7% versus the prior year, where North America retail sales declined by 4% and international retail sales declined by 13%.

2024年全年，全球新摩托車零售額較前一年下降7%，其中北美零售額下降4%，國際零售額下降13%。

Dealer inventory at the end of Q4 was down by 19% sequentially relative to the end of Q3 as we executed on our plan to reduce inventory levels in the second half of 2024, both domestically and internationally. Dealer inventory globally was at a level below where we ended the prior year. Specifically, Harley-Davidson Dealer inventory levels were down over 4% year over year.

由於我們執行了 2024 年下半年降低國內外庫存水準的計劃，第四季末的經銷商庫存較第三季末環比下降了 19%。全球經銷商庫存水準低於去年年底的水準。具體而言，哈雷戴維森經銷商的庫存水準年減了 4% 以上。

We continue to prioritize support for our dealers as we start 2025 and the upcoming spring riding season and work to balance dealer inventory at healthy at appropriate levels. We are investing in our grassroots marketing activations, which we expect will reap benefits in improved dealer and motor company profitability beginning in 2025 and lasting beyond.

在 2025 年和即將到來的春季騎行季節到來之際，我們將繼續優先為我們的經銷商提供支持，並努力在適當的水平上平衡經銷商庫存。我們正在投資基層行銷活動，預計從 2025 年開始並持續到以後，這將帶來經銷商和汽車公司獲利能力的提高。

Also, as Jochen mentioned, we are pleased with the initial reaction to the redesigned Softail motorcycles. We will talk further about our expectations for both retail and wholesale motorcycles for the full year of 2025 in just a few minutes.

此外，正如 Jochen 所提到的，我們對重新設計的 Softail 摩托車的初步反應感到非常滿意。我們將在幾分鐘內進一步討論我們對 2025 年全年摩托車零售和批發的期望。

Now turning to page 7 and HDMC revenue performance. In Q4, HDMC revenue decreased by 47%, coming in at $420 million, which was driven largely by a 53% decrease in wholesale units shipped.

現在翻到第 7 頁，看看 HDMC 的營收表現。第四季，HDMC 營收下降 47%，至 4.2 億美元，主要因批發出貨量下降 53%。

Looking closer at the key drivers for Q4, 43 points of decline was as a result of decreased wholesale volume at HDMC where motorcycle shipments were down meaningfully when compared with retail sale of motorcycles. Specifically, we shipped less than half the motorcycles we did in Q4 prior year. We delivered 14,000 motorcycles in Q4 '24 relative to 30,000 in Q4 of 2023.

仔細觀察第四季度的主要驅動因素，43 個點的下降是由於 HDMC 的批發量下降，與摩托車零售量相比，摩托車出貨量大幅下降。具體來說，我們出貨的摩托車數量還不到去年第四季的一半。我們在 2024 年第四季交付了 14,000 輛摩托車，而 2023 年第四季交付了 30,000 輛。

In Q4, our wholesale shipment decrease was even more pronounced than the typical impact as we work to reduce dealer inventory levels by year-end. 5 points of growth came from pricing, which includes the net impact of pricing actions on 2024 model year motorcycles and overall sales incentives.

在第四季度，由於我們努力在年底前降低經銷商的庫存水平，我們的批發出貨量下降幅度比典型影響更為明顯。 5 個點的成長來自定價，其中包括定價行動對 2024 年摩托車和整體銷售激勵的淨影響。

9 points of decline came from mix as we were more focused on Touring shipments in the first half of the year, and we rounded out the rest of the motorcycle portfolio shipments in the second half of the year. And finally, foreign exchange was largely flat in Q4. For the full year of 2024, HDMC revenue decreased by 15%, coming in at $4.1 billion.

9 個百分點的下降來自於混合車型的出貨量，因為我們在上半年更加註重旅行車的出貨量，而在下半年我們完成了其餘摩托車組合的出貨量。最後，第四季外匯匯率基本持平。2024 年全年，HDMC 營收下降 15%，至 41 億美元。

Looking more closely at the key drivers for full year 2024, 15 points of decline, which came from decreased wholesale volume at HDMC which was driven by an overall decrease in wholesale motorcycle unit shipments as we prioritize appropriate inventory levels and driving improved financial outcomes for our dealer partners. 1 point of decline, which came from pricing, net of incentives, reflecting difficult year-over-year comparisons in the first half and actions to help support retail in the 2024 calendar year for the remaining 2023 model dealer inventory.

更仔細地觀察 2024 年全年的關鍵驅動因素，下降 15 個百分點，原因是 HDMC 的批發量下降，這是由於我們優先考慮適當的庫存水平並為我們的經銷商合作夥伴帶來更好的財務業績，導致摩托車批發單位出貨量整體下降。 1 個百分點的下降來自於扣除激勵措施後的定價，反映了上半年同比困難以及為支持 2024 日曆年剩餘的 2023 年款經銷商庫存零售而採取的行動。

Mix contributed a little more than 1 point of growth as we continue to prioritize our most profitable models and markets especially in the first half of 2024. And finally, foreign exchange, which resulted in an $18 million headwind or less than 50 basis points of decline as the dollar strengthened for the full year.

由於我們繼續優先考慮最賺錢的模式和市場，尤其是在 2024 年上半年，Mix 貢獻了略高於 1 個百分點的成長。最後是外匯，由於美元全年走強，導致外匯損失 1,800 萬美元，降幅不到 50 個基點。

Now turning to page 8 and HDMC margin performance. In Q4, HDMC gross profit came in at a loss of $3 million compared to a gross profit of $181 million or 22.9% gross margin in Q4 of 2023. Again, Q4 is typically our lowest gross margin quarter of the year. The year-over-year decrease was driven by the negative impact from significantly lower volumes, unfavorable mix, unfavorable foreign exchange, including hedging, and negative operating leverage. There were some positives in the quarter, including favorable net pricing and lower raw material and supply chain management costs.

現在轉到第 8 頁和 HDMC 利潤表現。第四季度，HDMC 毛利虧損 300 萬美元，而 2023 年第四季的毛利為 1.81 億美元，毛利率為 22.9%。再次，第四季通常是我們一年中毛利率最低的季度。年比下降主要是由於銷售大幅下降、產品組合不利、外匯不利（包括對沖）以及負經營槓桿造成的負面影響。本季度有一些積極因素，包括有利的淨定價以及較低的原材料和供應鏈管理成本。

In Q4, operating expenses totaled $210 million which was $15 million lower compared to prior year or 7% lower as we continue to maintain the overall cost discipline and increase our efforts to manage OpEx productivity at HDMC. In Q4, HDMC had an operating loss of $214 million, which compares to an operating loss of $44 million in the prior year period.

第四季度，營運費用總計 2.1 億美元，比上年減少 1,500 萬美元，降幅為 7%，這得益於我們繼續保持總體成本控制，並加強管理 HDMC 的營運支出生產力。第四季度，HDMC 的營業虧損為 2.14 億美元，而去年同期的營業虧損為 4,400 萬美元。

Turning our attention to full-year 2024 margins. For the full year 2024, HDMC gross margin was 28%, which compares to 32.3% in the prior year. The decrease of 430 basis points was driven by the negative impact from lower volumes, unfavorable net pricing, unfavorable mix, which was largely driven by increased costs related to all new Touring motorcycles and A&L more than offsetting favorable family mix.

將注意力轉向 2024 年全年利潤率。2024 年全年，HDMC 毛利率為 28%，而前一年為 32.3%。430 個基點的下降是由於銷量下降、淨定價不利、產品組合不利造成的負面影響，這主要是由於與所有新旅行摩托車和 A&L 相關的成本增加超過了抵消有利的家庭產品組合的影響。

Additionally, we experienced a benefit in the first half of the year from shipping higher-margin CVO products in 2024, which reversed in the second half as we lapped the introduction of our Touring CVOs in 2023.

此外，2024 年上半年，我們因出貨利潤率較高的 CVO 產品而獲益，但隨著 2023 年 Touring CVO 的推出，下半年的情況出現逆轉。

Our Hardwire II profit focus has produced a meaningful mix margin expansion since 2020, but was muted in 2024 as we invested behind our core product segments and lapped higher comparison periods. Unfavorable foreign exchange, including hedging and negative operating leverage. These impacts were partially offset by the positive impact from lower raw material costs and lower logistics expenses as we executed well against our cost productivity targets, which helped offset the 2% rate of inflation fee during the full year of 2024.

自 2020 年以來，我們對 Hardwire II 利潤的關注產生了有意義的混合利潤率擴張，但由於我們在核心產品領域進行投資並超過了較高的比較期，因此在 2024 年利潤率有所下降。不利的外匯，包括對沖和負的經營槓桿。由於我們很好地實現了成本生產力目標，這些影響被原材料成本降低和物流費用降低帶來的正面影響部分抵消，這有助於抵消 2024 年全年 2% 的通貨膨脹率。

Lastly, for the full year of 2024, operating expenses came in at $877 million which were lower by $28 million as we maintained overall cost discipline due to actions that we began to take in late Q2 of 2024. Full year 2024 HDMC operating income was $278 million, which was $383 million lower than prior year due to the factors mentioned previously. For the full year 2024, HDMC operating margin was 6.7%, which compares to 13.6% for the full year 2023.

最後，2024 年全年的營運費用為 8.77 億美元，下降了 2,800 萬美元，因為我們在 2024 年第二季末開始採取的行動保持了整體成本紀律。2024 年全年 HDMC 營業收入為 2.78 億美元，由於前面提到的因素，比上年下降 3.83 億美元。2024 年全年，HDMC 營業利益率為 6.7%，而 2023 年全年為 13.6%。

Before we turn to the next slide, as I did in October, let me give a brief update on our productivity cost program. One of the initiatives identified as part of the hardline strategy, where we were expecting to drive $400 million of improvement in productivity by 2025.

在我們翻到下一張投影片之前，就像我在十月所做的那樣，讓我簡要介紹一下我們的生產力成本計劃。這項措施是強硬策略的一部分，我們預計到 2025 年將帶來 4 億美元的生產力提升。

As a reminder, we are now excluding the impact of leverage while holding our previously communicated multiyear target of $400 million. Excluding the impact of leverage, we delivered approximately $24 million in 2022 and $123 million in 2023. In 2024, we delivered a further $110 million for the full year. This is a total of $257 million to date.

提醒一下，我們現在排除了槓桿的影響，同時保持我們之前公佈的 4 億美元的多年目標。不包括槓桿的影響，我們在 2022 年的營收約為 2,400 萬美元，2023 年的營收約為 1.23 億美元。2024 年，我們將全年再實現 1.1 億美元收入。截至目前，總額已達 2.57 億美元。

We expect to achieve another $100 million in 2025 and again in 2026, exceeding our hardwire dollar target by over 10%, but doing so one year later than anticipated.

我們預計在 2025 年和 2026 年將再實現 1 億美元收入，超出我們的實際目標 10% 以上，但比預期晚了一年。

Now turning to slide 9 and 10 in the Financial Services segment. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Q4 revenue came in at $257 million, an increase of $11 million or 4% compared to last year. The Q4 increase was driven by lower retail finance receivables at higher average yields as the portfolio continued to reset over time with higher interest rates driving higher interest income.

現在轉到金融服務部分的第 9 張和第 10 張投影片。哈雷戴維森金融服務公司第四季營收 2.57 億美元，較去年同期增加 1,100 萬美元，增幅為 4%。第四季的成長主要是由於零售金融應收帳款減少而平均收益率上升，因為隨著投資組合不斷重置，更高的利率推動了更高的利息收入。

HDFS' operating income was $46 million, down 20% compared to the prior year. The Q4 decline was driven by a higher provision for credit losses and higher borrowing costs, which were partially offset by higher interest income.

HDFS 的營業收入為 4,600 萬美元，較上年下降 20%。第四季的下滑主要是因為信貸損失準備金增加及借貸成本上升，但利息收入增加部分抵銷了這些影響。

Operating expenses were largely flat. The provision for credit loss expense was $16 million higher, primarily as a result of an unfavorable reserve change and slightly higher realized credit losses. The reserve change was $13 million unfavorable as compared to Q4 of 2023, primarily on an increase in the retail reserve rate to ensure we are well positioned for subsequent periods.

營業費用基本持平。信用損失準備金費用增加了 1,600 萬美元，主要原因是準備金變化不利以及已實現信用損失略有增加。與 2023 年第四季相比，儲備金變化不利 1,300 萬美元，主要是因為零售儲備金率增加，以確保我們為後續期間做好充分準備。

Total interest expense was up $6 million or up 7% versus the prior year. The increase was driven by a higher cost of funds as lower interest rate debt matured and was replaced with current market rate debt.

總利息支出比前一年增加了 600 萬美元，增幅為 7%。由於低利率債務到期並被當前市場利率債務取代，導致資金成本上升，推動了這一增長。

For the full year of 2024, HDFS revenue was $1 billion, up 9% from prior year. While HDFS operating income was $248 million, up 6% from prior year. The full year 2024 operating income margin was 24%.

2024 年全年，HDFS 營收為 10 億美元，比上年成長 9%。HDFS 營業收入為 2.48 億美元，較上年增長 6%。2024年全年營業收入利潤率為24%。

Now turning to slide 11. At the end of 2024, HDFS' annualized retail credit loss ratio was 3.3%, which compares to an annualized retail credit loss ratio of 3% at the end of 2023. The increase in retail credit losses was driven by several factors connected to the macroeconomic environment and related to customer and industry dynamics. Across the portfolio, we have seen that more loans have become delinquent as customers have been impacted by higher bike payments and general inflationary pressures. The average loss increased due to higher loan balances and continuing normalization of used bike prices, which have led to lower recovery values at auction.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片。截至 2024 年底，HDFS 的年化零售信貸損失率為 3.3%，而 2023 年底的年化零售信貸損失率為 3%。零售信貸損失的增加是由與宏觀經濟環境以及客戶和行業動態相關的幾個因素所推動的。在整個投資組合中，我們發現更多的貸款出現拖欠，因為客戶受到了更高的自行車付款和普遍的通膨壓力的影響。由於貸款餘額增加和二手自行車價格持續正常化，導致拍賣時的回收價值下降，平均損失增加。

That said, we believe we have begun to see stabilization in used values after many quarters of decline, following a rapid value escalation in the period immediately following COVID.

儘管如此，我們相信，在經歷了新冠疫情爆發後立即出現的快速價值上漲之後，二手車價值在經歷了多個季度的下滑之後，已經開始趨於穩定。

The retail allowance for credit losses for Q4 2024 ticked up to 5.7%. This is up from 5.5% in Q3 2024 and up from 5.4% at year-end of '23. This reflects our best estimate of the current and future retail lending environment. Total retail loan originations in Q4 were down 16%, while commercial financing activities were down 5% to $1 billion. Total quarter end net financing receivables, including both retail loans and commercial financing was $7.3 billion, a 3% decline versus prior year-end.

2024 年第四季的零售信貸損失準備金小幅上升至 5.7%。這一數字高於 2024 年第三季的 5.5% 和 23 年底的 5.4%。這反映了我們對當前和未來零售貸款環境的最佳估計。第四季零售貸款發放總額下降 16%，商業融資活動下降 5% 至 10 億美元。季末淨融資應收帳款總額（包括零售貸款和商業融資）為 73 億美元，較上年末下降 3%。

Now turning to slide 13. For the LiveWire segment, electric motorcycles revenue decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the prior year period due to lower unit sales of EV motorcycles in the quarter.

現在翻到第 13 張投影片。對 LiveWire 部門而言，2024 年第四季電動摩托車的營收與去年同期相比有所下降，原因是本季電動摩托車的單位銷售量下降。

At StaCyc, the electric balanced by business. Revenue was up modestly compared to the prior year. Selling, administrative and engineering expenses were down $9 million or down 31% in Q4 compared to prior year. Fourth-quarter LiveWire operating loss of $26 million, $9 million less than a year ago, was in line with our expectations as LiveWire continued to invest in new motorcycle models and continues to action initiatives to reduce the overall cost of sales per EV motorcycles.

在 StaCyc，電力由業務來平衡。與上年度相比，收入略有增加。第四季銷售、管理和工程費用與去年同期相比下降了 900 萬美元，降幅為 31%。LiveWire 在第四季營業虧損為 2,600 萬美元，比一年前減少了 900 萬美元，這符合我們的預期，因為 LiveWire 繼續投資新的摩托車車型，並繼續採取措施降低每輛電動摩托車的總銷售成本。

For the full-year 2024 results of the LiveWire segment, revenue was $26 million, down 31% from the prior year. For the full year 2024 period, LiveWire sold 612 of electric motorcycles which compares to 660 electric motorcycles in 2023. For the period, LiveWire operating loss was $110 million, which was in line with our expectations.

LiveWire 部門 2024 年全年業績顯示，營收為 2,600 萬美元，較上年下降 31%。2024 年全年，LiveWire 銷售了 612 輛電動摩托車，而 2023 年則銷售了 660 輛電動摩托車。本期間，LiveWire 的營業虧損為 1.1 億美元，符合我們的預期。

Now turning to slide 14. Wrapping up with consolidated Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s financial results, we delivered $1.1 billion of operating cash flow in 2024 and which was an increase of $309 million and up from $755 million in 2023. The increase in operating cash flow was influenced by a favorable change in wholesale finance receivables and by positive changes in working capital as we continue to focus on cost productivity and tight inventory management, including over a 20% reduction in finished goods inventory. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.6 billion, which was $56 million higher than a year ago. This consolidated cash number includes $64 million at LiveWire.

現在翻到第 14 張投影片。總結哈雷戴維森公司的綜合財務業績，我們在 2024 年實現了 11 億美元的營運現金流，比 2023 年的 7.55 億美元增加了 3.09 億美元。營運現金流的增加受到批發融資應收帳款的有利變化和營運資本的積極變化的影響，因為我們繼續專注於成本生產率和嚴格的庫存管理，包括將成品庫存減少 20% 以上。總現金和現金等價物最終達到 16 億美元，比一年前高出 5,600 萬美元。這一合併現金數字包括 LiveWire 的 6,400 萬美元。

Additionally, as part of our capital allocation strategy and in line with our commitment to return capital to our shareholders, in Q4, we bought back 3 million shares of our stock at a cost of $100 million.

此外，作為我們資本配置策略的一部分，並按照我們向股東返還資本的承諾，在第四季度，我們以 1 億美元的成本回購了 300 萬股股票。

This brings our total amount of shares bought back in full year of 2024 to 12.5 million shares of Harley-Davidson common stock at a total value of $450 million, which is 9% of shares outstanding at the beginning of 2024. Since the company announced a $1 billion share repurchase plan on July 25, 2024, we have repurchased 7.1 million shares at a cost of $250 million.

這意味著我們在 2024 年全年回購的股份總數將達到 1,250 萬股哈雷戴維森普通股，總價值為 4.5 億美元，佔 2,024 年初流通股的 9%。自公司於 2024 年 7 月 25 日宣布 10 億美元的股票回購計畫以來，我們已回購了 710 萬股，耗資 2.5 億美元。

Now turning to slide 16. As we look to our financial outlook for '25, we remain pleased with our leading market share position in the US new model year '25 launch, including an important new entrant in the Pan American family, all coupled with our still new and redesigned Touring lineup. Yet as Jochen already mentioned, we are mindful of overall macroeconomic uncertainties and greater softness in high-ticket consumer discretionary spend, particularly after the second half of '24 slowdown.

現在翻到第 16 張投影片。展望25年的財務前景，我們仍然對我們在25年美國新車型推出中的領先市場份額感到滿意，其中包括泛美家族中的一個重要新成員，以及我們仍然全新和重新設計的旅行系列。然而，正如約亨已經提到的那樣，我們注意到整體宏觀經濟的不確定性以及高價位消費者可自由支配支出的進一步疲軟，特別是在 2024 年下半年經濟放緩之後。

At HDMC, we expect retail units to be flat in 2025 with positive performance skewed towards the second half, as Jochen mentioned. We expect wholesale units to be flat to down 5% in 2025 as we continue to be mindful of dealer inventory management. We expect global inventory levels to come down by more than 10% by the end of 2025.

正如 Jochen 所說，在 HDMC，我們預計零售單位在 2025 年將保持平穩，並且下半年將出現積極的表現。由於我們將繼續關注經銷商的庫存管理，我們預計到 2025 年批發單位數量將持平或下降 5%。我們預計到 2025 年底全球庫存水準將下降 10% 以上。

The impact of this will be most evident in the first half where we expect a reduction of more than 30%. As a result, we expect HDMC revenue to be flat to down 5%. We expect revenue to align with the timing of wholesale shipments and year-over-year revenue comparisons will exhibit a different seasonal cadence versus prior year as we are not building dealer inventory for all new Touring as was done in 2024. We expect operating income margin to come in between 7% and 8%.

其影響將在上半年最為明顯，我們預計降幅將超過 30%。因此，我們預計 HDMC 收入將持平或下降 5%。我們預計收入將與批發出貨的時間保持一致，並且與去年相比，同比收入將呈現出不同的季節性節奏，因為我們不會像 2024 年那樣為所有新 Touring 建立經銷商庫存。我們預計營業收入利潤率將在7%至8%之間。

The drivers of our margin performance expectations include slightly negative operating leverage due to lower volumes, FX headwind from unfavorable shifts in foreign currencies, mix, which we expect to be slightly unfavorable due to higher overall portfolio makeup of new Softails, pricing up as we continue to fine-tune our pricing strategy and operating expense down due to the full year benefit of lower head count and anticipated warranty savings.

我們對利潤率業績預期的驅動因素包括：由於銷售較低導致的輕微負營業槓桿、外幣不利變動帶來的外匯逆風、由於新款 Softail 的整體投資組合構成較高而預計略微不利的組合、由於我們繼續調整定價策略而導致的價格上漲以及由於全年員工人數減少和預期節省而導致的營業費用保固下降。

In addition, at the earnings per share level, we expect EPS to be flat to down 5% relative to $3.44 reported in 2024. The drivers of this include tax rate, which was unusually low in 2024 due to onetime impacts from tax credits and reduced withholding taxes on earnings we expect to be repatriated.

此外，在每股盈餘水準上，我們預期每股盈餘將相對於 2024 年的 3.44 美元持平或下降 5%。造成這一現象的驅動因素包括稅率，由於稅收抵免的一次性影響以及我們預計將匯回的收益的預扣稅減少，2024 年的稅率異常低。

Interest income down year over year as we lap higher short-term interest rates, other income, lower pension income, and lapping gains on changes in LiveWire warrant value in 2024, and EPS will benefit from lower weighted average shares outstanding as well. At HDFS, we expect operating income to be down 10% to 15% in 2025.

由於我們考慮了更高的短期利率、其他收入、較低的退休金收入以及 2024 年 LiveWire 認股權證價值變化帶來的收益，利息收入同比下降，並且每股收益也將受益於較低的加權平均流通股數。在 HDFS，我們預計 2025 年營業收入將下降 10% 至 15%。

This forecast is based on higher borrowing costs year over year as we refinance a portion of the portfolio in a higher interest rate environment, a stable loss rate as consumers settle into the existing macroeconomic backdrop where lower tier credit continue to experience some stress, but offset with recent levels of higher prime mix originations and lower assets as we reduced dealer inventory and wholesale levels, driving lower commercial balances, and as retail levels decreased due to lower origination volumes in recent years.

這項預測基於以下因素：由於我們在較高利率環境下對部分投資組合進行再融資，因此借貸成本同比上升；由於消費者適應現有宏觀經濟背景，損失率保持穩定，而較低層級的信貸繼續承受一定壓力，但由於我們減少了經銷商庫存和批發水平，導致商業餘額下降，且由於近年來貸款發放量下降，零售水準下降，

At LiveWire, LiveWire is forecasting unit sales of between 1,000 to 1,500 units and an operating loss in the range of $70 million to $80 million. Actions were taken in 2024 to reduce 2025 total cash used by operating and investing activities.

LiveWire 預測其銷量將在 1,000 至 1,500 台之間，營業虧損將在 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元之間。我們於 2024 年採取行動，減少 2025 年經營投資活動所用現金總額。

For 2025, we expect this will be a reduction of approximately 40% and the spend of $60 million or less. And lastly, for total HDI, we expect capital investments in the range of $225 million to $250 million. This is the same forecast as in 2024 and 2023 where we plan to continue to invest in product development and capability management.

到 2025 年，我們預計這一數字將減少約 40%，支出將達到 6,000 萬美元或更少。最後，就 HDI 總額而言，我們預計資本投資在 2.25 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間。這與 2024 年和 2023 年的預測相同，我們計劃繼續投資於產品開發和能力管理。

Our investment focus remains driven by core product innovation investments in manufacturing to automate and reduce costs as part of our productivity journey as well as planned investments for LiveWire.

我們的投資重​​點仍然是製造業的核心產品創新投資，以實現自動化和降低成本，這是我們生產力之旅的一部分，也是對 LiveWire 的計劃投資。

As a reminder, our capital allocation priorities remain to fund profitable growth of the Hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures, paying dividends and continuing to execute discretionary share repurchases.

提醒一下，我們的資本配置重點仍然是資助 Hardwire 計劃的獲利成長，其中包括資本支出、支付股息和繼續執行自由裁量股票回購。

As covered previously, in the three-year period from 2022 through '24, we returned $1.4 billion in capital to our shareholders, including $1.1 billion of shares repurchased. As we begin 2025, we are planning to buy back $350 million of our common shares, demonstrating our ongoing commitment to delivering $1 billion in share repurchases as announced in July.

如前所述，從 2022 年到 2024 年的三年期間，我們向股東返還了 14 億美元的資本，其中包括 11 億美元的回購股票。2025 年伊始，我們計劃回購價值 3.5 億美元的普通股，以履行我們在 7 月宣布的 10 億美元股票回購的持續承諾。

And with that, we will open it up to Q&A.

接下來，我們將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Megan Clap, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普 (Megan Clap)。

Jonathan, have a lot of helpful detail there. So thank you. I appreciate it. Wanted to just follow up on your commentary around the first quarter in particular and just how to think about the cadence of the year overall. I think you mentioned you're expecting an inventory reduction of more than 30% in the first quarter.

喬納森，那裡有很多有用的細節。所以謝謝你。我很感激。只是想跟進您對第一季的評論，以及如何看待今年的整體節奏。我記得您提到預計第一季庫存減少 30% 以上。

And from a revenue comparison perspective, you're not going to be building dealer inventory for Touring as you did in '24. So maybe a hard comparison on Touring plus still taking some shipments out of the channel. So can you just maybe put a finer point on what that means for your expectations for the first quarter?

從收入比較的角度來看，您不會像 24 年那樣為 Touring 建立經銷商庫存。因此，也許在巡迴賽上會進行嚴格的比較，而且還會從渠道中運出一些貨物。那麼您能否更詳細地說明一下這對您對第一季的期望意味著什麼？

Sure. So we'll probably talk more, I think, in sort of front half and back half of the year rather than get into quarters specifically. But Megan, your questions I think a really good one that we feel is important to make sure that you do have an understanding on. But as we look at where dealer inventory globally kind of lands across 2025. We expect to end the year down 10% or a little bit over from a total dealer inventory perspective.

當然。因此，我認為，我們可能會更多地談論上半年和下半年，而不是具體討論各個季度的情況。但是梅根，我認為你的問題非常好，我們認為確保你理解這一點很重要。但當我們觀察 2025 年全球經銷商庫存的情況。從經銷商總庫存角度來看，我們預計今年年底的庫存將下降 10% 或略高一些。

As we think about what that looks like across the quarters, again, front half would be down a little over 30%. And so obviously, as we flow through that and think about some of the dealer impacts related to that, we have dealers who run the year down probably about call it, a 35-ish percent average across the entire year. But obviously, it kind of trails off because of the actions that we took in 2024 to bring down inventory in Q4. So with that, you see a more pronounced decrease in inventory in the front half than the back half. So 30% plus and then 10% plus kind of year-end.

當我們思考各個季度的情況時，我們會發現前半部分將下降 30% 多一點。顯然，當我們回顧這個過程並思考與此相關的一些經銷商的影響時，我們的經銷商可能將全年銷售額平均下降了 35% 左右。但顯然，由於我們在 2024 年採取了降低第四季庫存的行動，這一趨勢有所減弱。因此，你會發現前半年的庫存下降比後半年更明顯。因此，年末會成長 30% 以上，然後成長 10% 以上。

As we think about the wholesale related impacts to that, it does mean that front half of the year wholesale will be down versus where we were in 2024. So front half probably down in the double-digit kind of double-digit range from a percentage standpoint. And then as we move towards the back half of the year, up quite a bit in the back half in order to make sure that we end the year appropriately positioned from an inventory standpoint.

當我們考慮與批發相關的影響時，這確實意味著今年上半年的批發量將比 2024 年下降。因此從百分比的角度來看，前半部可能下降到兩位數左右。然後，隨著我們進入下半年，我們將在下半年大幅增加庫存，以確保我們在年底從庫存的角度獲得適當的定位。

Joe Altobello, from Raymond James.

雷蒙德詹姆斯公司的喬·阿爾托貝洛。

I guess I try to squeeze in a couple of questions if I could. I guess, first on the quarter where was the big margin surprise because revenue was in line, shipments were maybe slightly below expectations. So first question is where the big margin surprise was in Q4?

如果可以的話，我想嘗試提出幾個問題。我想，首先，本季的利潤率驚喜很大，因為收入符合預期，出貨量可能略低於預期。那麼第一個問題是第四季最大的利潤驚喜在哪裡？

And then maybe to follow up on that, the retail outlook for flat in '25, maybe your thinking there, given that you're lapping a Touring refresh this year.

然後也許可以跟進一下，25 年的零售前景持平，也許您是這樣想的，因為您今年正在對 Touring 進行更新。

All right. Thanks, Joe. I can start with -- I'll start with the sort of margin piece from a Q4 perspective. And then between Jochen and I will cover the retail piece. So on the Q4 margin, we have a margin walk that I think was page 8 of the deck.

好的。謝謝，喬。我可以先從──我先從第四季的角度討論一下利潤部分。然後我和 Jochen 會討論零售部分。因此，在第四季度的利潤率上，我們有一個利潤率調整，我認為這是簡報的第 8 頁。

And as you take a look at that from a full-year perspective, you can see the impacts associated with volume as well as sort of manufacturing and other related expense. So we're pretty pleased in terms of some of the positives that we delivered on. I think you heard Jochen's commentary and my commentary around productivity and the productivity that we drove in 2024, I think that overall was a good news.

從全年的角度來看，您可以看到與產量以及製造和其他相關費用相關的影響。因此，我們對所取得的一些正面成果感到非常滿意。我想你聽到了約亨的評論和我關於生產力以及我們在 2024 年推動的生產力的評論，我認為這總體來說是一個好消息。

But as we think about some of the things from a 2024 perspective, obviously, we were a little bit off from an overall retail perspective. We made the commitment that we would manage retail and wholesale in alignment with each other throughout the year.

但是，當我們從 2024 年的角度思考一些事情時，顯然我們從整體零售角度來看有些偏差。我們承諾全年將協調管理零售和批發。

So as we got to the back part of 2024, there were a number of down days that we used to manage inventory and make sure that we are managing production in the right way. We also had a little bit of cost associated with retooling for new Softail and kind of getting everything aligned from a overall line rate design perspective within there. And then obviously, the volume that I just talked about, that hits from an absorption or deleverage perspective.

因此，當我們進入 2024 年後半段時，我們利用了一些停工日來管理庫存並確保以正確的方式管理生產。我們也花了一些成本來重新裝備新的 Softail 並從整體線路速率設計角度對所有內容進行調整。然後顯然，我剛才談到的交易量是從吸收或去槓桿的角度產生的。

So as we add up those elements, that kind of creates the challenge in terms of the overall mix from an operating income margin standpoint. And then Jochen, do you want to take Joe's question from a retail outlook standpoint?

因此，當我們把這些因素加在一起時，從營業利潤率的角度來看，這對整體組合帶來了挑戰。然後 Jochen，你想從零售前景的角度來回答 Joe 的問題嗎？

Sure. I think if you look at the first and the second half of last year, we had a stronger performance in the first half versus the second half not just because -- only because of the Touring launch, but in general, we've seen a drop-off in the second half, which is pretty much in line with what other industries or related industries have seen.

當然。我認為，如果你看看去年上半年和下半年，我們上半年的表現要強於下半年，這不僅僅是因為——僅僅是因為 Touring 的推出，但總體而言，我們看到下半年出現了下滑，這與其他行業或相關行業的情況基本一致。

So therefore, we expect a better performance in the second half versus the first half. We also think from a macroeconomic point of view, it's probably going to be more choppy in the first half than the second half. You mentioned the Touring launch.

因此，我們預計下半年的表現會比上半年更好。我們也認為，從宏觀經濟的角度來看，上半年的經濟狀況可能比下半年更加動盪。您提到了巡演的推出。

I think what's important to note is that we have beyond Touring a lot of innovation in our product lineup, which is reflected in our guidance.

我認為值得注意的是，除了旅遊之外，我們的產品陣容還有很多創新，這反映在我們的指導中。

And then that the Touring product that we've launched is still very new to many of our customers. We have 1.6 million Touring riders just across the United States with last year's sales of new Touring bikes, we still have a customer base of the 95% that haven't looked or purchased our product. This means that's 1.5 million that can potentially upgrade to the new product platform.

我們推出的 Touring 產品對於許多客戶來說仍然很新。光在美國就有 160 萬名旅行車騎手，加上去年新旅行車的銷量，仍有 95% 的客戶群從未看過或購買過我們的產品。這意味著有 150 萬人可能升級到新的產品平台。

And if you look at previous launches that we're not as comprehensive in terms of remodel as our Touring launch now is that benefit came over several years, not just the first year.

如果你看一下以前的發表會，你會發現我們在改造方面並不像現在的 Touring 發表會那麼全面，這種好處是幾年才顯現出來的，而不僅僅是第一年。

And data shows that 30% of our customers are very aware of our new Touring product features, but that makes 70% that are not fully aware yet. So there's definitely a lot of potential for -- in the coming years to convince customers and some are just holding off and don't want to buy the first generation and want to familiarize themselves more.

數據顯示，30% 的客戶非常了解我們新的 Touring 產品功能，但 70% 的客戶尚未完全了解。因此，在未來幾年裡，肯定有很大的潛力說服客戶，有些客戶只是在推遲購買，不想購買第一代產品，而想進一步熟悉它。

So we still think Touring has opportunity for growth in the future for sure. And this platform should run for many years, given that it's all new compared to our Rushmore products in the past. But in terms of comps, certainly, we believe the first half is going to be slower than the second half.

所以我們仍然認為 Touring 未來肯定還有成長的機會。而且這個平台應該可以運行很多年，因為與我們過去的 Rushmore 產品相比，它是全新的。但就同類產品而言，我們當然認為上半年的成長速度將比下半年慢。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So maybe help with the sort of margin bridge. You're guiding revenues to be flat to down modestly, but operating margin to be up. And it looks like on the OpEx front, it sounds like that's going to basically track revenue, so maybe pretty flat as a percentage of sales. So I assume we were to model gross margins to be up pretty materially in 2025. Now you gave us a lot of the negatives, right? FX is going to be a negative.

所以也許有助於彌補某種保證金差距。您預計收入將持平或略有下降，但營業利潤率將上升。從營運支出來看，這聽起來基本上會追蹤收入，因此佔銷售額的百分比可能相當平穩。因此，我假設我們預測到 2025 年毛利率將大幅上升。現在你給了我們很多負面訊息，對嗎？FX 將會產生負面影響。

It sounds like mix is going to be a negative. I guess how do we get to that motor company margin growth that you're guiding to?

聽起來混合會產生負面影響。我想問我們如何才能達到您所期望的汽車公司利潤率成長？

All right, James. So I can start. So I think as we go through and we take a look from an overall volume perspective, obviously, as you talked about, we're pretty flat. So as we think about walking off of 6.7% for 2024, we end up with a relatively flat guide from a volume perspective.

好的，詹姆斯。那我可以開始了。因此，我認為，當我們從整體數量角度來看時，顯然，正如你所說的那樣，我們相當平穩。因此，當我們考慮 2024 年的 6.7% 成長率時，從交易量角度來看，我們最終會得到一個相對平穩的指導。

From a pricing standpoint, we expect a little bit of favorability that's in there as we look at the actions that we've taken across the portfolio. There's a little bit of a negative impact in 2025 from FX, so probably a little bit greater than the negative impact that you saw in the '23 to '24 walk. A little bit of a challenge from a mix standpoint because we have the new Softails that are hitting. Obviously, the Touring are higher margin motorcycle. So there's a little bit of a mix dynamic in there.

從定價的角度來看，當我們審視我們在整個投資組合中採取的行動時，我們預計會出現一些有利因素。2025 年 FX 會產生一些負面影響，所以可能比 23 年至 24 年步行期間看到的負面影響更大。從混合角度來說，這是一個小小的挑戰，因為我們有新的 Softail 車款。顯然，旅行車屬於利潤較高的摩托車。因此這裡面有一點混合動態。

We don't think that we're going to see sort of the same level of unfavorability from manufacturing and other. And then we think we have a little bit of favorability that falls in there from an OpEx perspective. Those are for the reasons that Jochen talked about in his remarks. And so with that, you kind of add up to the 7% to 8% guide that we provided.

我們認為，我們不會看到製造業和其他領域出現同樣程度的不利影響。然後我們認為，從營運支出 (OpEx) 的角度來看，我們有一點有利因素。這就是約亨在演講中談到的原因。這樣，您就可以達到我們提供的 7% 到 8% 的指導。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓法利（Robin Farley）。

I wanted to just clarify, with your guidance for motorcycle revenue flat to down 5%. I think you said price would be positive for the year. So does that imply percent of units down a bit more than that flat to 5%.

我想澄清一下，您預測摩托車收入將持平或下降 5%。我認為您說過今年的價格將保持正成長。那麼這是否意味著單位數量百分比的下降幅度會略大於持平至 5%？

And then just on retail, I know you gave some color sort of first half versus second half. But assuming that if you're trying to clear inventory, you're shipping below your retail expectations, what should we kind of think about us as the rough range of your retail expectation for the year?

然後就零售而言，我知道您給了上半年和下半年的一些對比。但假設你試圖清理庫存，而你的出貨量低於你的零售預期，那麼我們該如何看待你今年的零售預期大致範圍？

Just so we can kind of -- as we move through the year, kind of see how it's tracking versus your guidance and maybe kind of adjust our expectations accordingly.

這樣，隨著時間的流逝，我們就可以看看它與您的指導相比的跟踪情況，並可能相應地調整我們的預期。

Okay. Thank you, Robin. So I'll start with -- I think from a wholesale perspective, we probably think flat to down a little bit. So as we look at that, that's a little bit of the volume -- there will be a little bit of volume challenge in there that is offset by the pricing piece that I talked about.

好的。謝謝你，羅賓。因此，我首先認為——從批發角度來看，我們可能會認為持平或略有下降。所以當我們看一下這一點時，這就是一小部分的數量——其中會有一點數量挑戰，但這會被我談到的定價部分所抵消。

And then I think relative to your question on retail, overall, for right now from the commentary that we talked about, we think of retail as being flat in 2025. So certainly, a little bit difficult to predict as we think about macroeconomic situation and where we are. But overall, we are thinking about an environment globally that gets us to flat retail wholesale, maybe off a little bit and then pricing a little bit favorable. And hopefully, that answers your question around how we manage through that.

然後我認為相對於您關於零售業的問題，總體而言，就目前我們討論的評論而言，我們認為零售業在 2025 年將持平。因此，當我們考慮到宏觀經濟情勢和我們所處的位置時，當然有點難以預測。但總體而言，我們正在考慮全球環境，使我們的零售批發持平，也許稍微下降一點，然後定價稍微有利一些。希望這能回答您關於我們如何解決這個問題的問題。

Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

懷特曼（Fred Wightman），沃爾夫研究公司。

I was hoping you could just give us a sense for where the mix of current versus noncurrent product dealers have on lots today stands. If we look back last year, you called out some incremental dealer support to clear through noncurrent. I think there was a $40 million number initially and then you upsized that down the road. So are you assuming incremental dealer support year-over-year? Does that wind up being favorable? How do you sort of think about that?

我希望您能讓我們了解一下目前經銷商在地段上現有產品和非現有產品的組合情況。如果我們回顧去年，您呼籲一些增量經銷商支援來清除非當前問題。我認為最初的數字是 4,000 萬美元，後來你又增加了這個數字。那麼您是否假設經銷商的支援會逐年增加？這最終會有好處嗎？您對此有什麼看法？

All right. Thank you, Fred. So I'll start. And I think in terms of the mix, we obviously have just started shipping in 2025 model year motorcycles. So literally, just hitting within the last week or so.

好的。謝謝你，弗雷德。那我就開始了。我認為就產品組合而言，我們顯然剛開始推出 2025 年摩托車。所以從字面上看，這只是在過去一周左右發生的事情。

So as we look at dealer inventory in terms of what's out there, we've covered the fact that we're down a little bit from where we ended [2020]. It's kind of same period a year ago. As we look at what -- how we're managing through inventory in 2025, we've covered sort of the conservatism that we expect in the first half of the year, how we're shipping pretty carefully from that standpoint. So we think that dealers are pretty well positioned from an overall inventory perspective. The other thing that is a tremendous difference in 2025 calendar year versus 2024 calendar year is -- the way that I would define it this kind of quality of inventory, right?

因此，當我們查看經銷商庫存時，我們已經了解到庫存量較上一季略有下降[2020]。這與去年同期差不多。當我們研究 2025 年如何管理庫存時，我們已經涵蓋了我們預計上半年的保守主義，以及從這個角度來看我們如何非常謹慎地運輸。因此我們認為，從整體庫存角度來看，經銷商的地位相當有利。2025 日曆年與 2024 日曆年的另一個巨大差異是——我如何定義這種庫存質量，對嗎？

So as we think about the mix of Touring bikes that dealers have on their floor, they have redesigned the redesigned Touring bikes that are out there. Jochen talked about market receptivity and market reaction to those which were positive in 2024. So overall, with that, we think the health of the dealer inventory is better.

因此，當我們考慮經銷商處所售旅行自行車的組合時，他們已經重新設計了現有的旅行自行車。Jochen 談到了市場接受度和市場反應，其中 2024 年表現積極。因此總體而言，我們認為經銷商庫存的健康狀況較好。

We think the quality of the dealer inventory is better. The piece that I think we are doing that's a little bit different in 2025 versus 2024 is being more surgical in where we look for dealer support.

我們認為經銷商庫存的品質更好。我認為，2025 年與 2024 年我們所做的有點不同，即我們在尋求經銷商支援方面更有針對性。

So rather than sort of applying support across a family like we did a year ago, we actually now kind of look at specific models within that family and provide the support a little bit more carefully from that standpoint. Again, something that we think we're able to do because of the mix of dealer inventory that's out there in the network.

因此，我們並不是像一年前那樣向整個家庭提供支持，而是實際上根據家庭內部的具體模式，從這個角度更加謹慎地提供支持。再說一次，我們認為我們能夠做到這一點，因為網路中存在混合經銷商庫存。

Just to add one point, also, please look at pricing, how we've strategically priced our products going into '25 versus '24. So I think that is an important factor and has been received very positively.

另外再補充一點，請看一下定價，看看我們在 2025 年和 2024 年的產品定價策略是什麼。所以我認為這是一個重要因素，而且得到了非常積極的迴響。

Alex Perry, Bank of America.

美國銀行的亞歷克斯·佩里。

I actually wanted to ask about LiveWire. So thinking about LiveWire more longer term, how do you think about managing that business and sort of managing the operating losses there I guess, if demand and adoption of electric does not materialize meaningfully over the next few years, how are you thinking about LiveWire longer term would be great.

我實際上想問有關 LiveWire 的問題。所以從長遠角度考慮 LiveWire，您如何看待管理這項業務以及如何管理在那裡的營運損失，如果未來幾年對電動車的需求和採用沒有實現有意義的實現，您如何看待 LiveWire 的長期發展。

Yes, Alex, good question. I think we are continuously evaluating from a Harley-Davidson perspective, how to achieve the best performance for Harley Davidson and for LiveWire. And we are obviously considering mid- and long-term perspectives in this evaluation. Beyond what we've said today, there's little to nothing that I want to comment on, but the first significant step Karim has already mentioned, we are reducing our operating losses from $110 million last year to $70 million to $80 million and cash burn by at least 40%, 40% or more to $60 million. So the team has taken under Karim's leadership a lot of significant actions to downsize the organization, refocus the product portfolio and ensure that the cash burn and the operating losses are being reduced.

是的，亞歷克斯，好問題。我認為我們正在從哈雷戴維森的角度不斷評估如何使哈雷戴維森和 LiveWire 實現最佳性能。我們在這次評估中顯然考慮了中期和長期觀點。除了我們今天所說的內容之外，我幾乎沒有什麼想評論的，但卡里姆已經提到的第一個重要步驟是，我們將把營運虧損從去年的 1.1 億美元減少到 7,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元，並將現金消耗減少至少 40%、40% 或更多，至 6,000 萬美元。因此，在 Karim 的領導下，團隊採取了許多重大舉措，縮減組織規模，重新調整產品組合，確保減少現金消耗和營運損失。

So that is an indication of how we are streamlining the business in light of the new realities. Beyond that, I can't really comment, but rest assured that we are continuously evaluating the development of LiveWire from a Harley-Davidson perspective as well, the benefits it brings versus the costs that we incur by being invested in that business.

這表明了我們如何根據新的現實精簡業務。除此之外，我無法發表評論，但請放心，我們也在從哈雷戴維森的角度不斷評估 LiveWire 的發展，以及它帶來的好處與我們投資該業務所產生的成本。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

麥格雷戈（David MacGregor），長弓研究公司（Longbow Research）。

This is Joe Nolan on for David. Just briefly, I wanted to touch on your outlook for some of your international end markets. If you could provide any detail there.

這是喬諾蘭 (Joe Nolan) 代替大衛。我想簡單談談您對一些國際終端市場的展望。如果您可以提供任何詳細資訊。

Okay. Joe, so I think as we sort of take a look at where we are from an international perspective, probably looking back is a little bit of an important perspective in terms of trying to look forward. So as we think about 2024, there were some markets in international that were positive, some markets that were a little bit down. So as we think China and Japan improved a little bit of a challenge as we look back. Australia and New Zealand exhibited some nice strength in the Asia Pacific region.

好的。喬，所以我認為，當我們從國際視角審視我們所處的位置時，回顧過去可能是展望未來的一個重要視角。因此，當我們展望 2024 年時，國際上有些市場表現積極，有些市場略有下滑。因此，當我們回顧時，我們認為中國和日本在挑戰方面有所進步。澳洲和紐西蘭在亞太地區表現出不俗的實力。

As we think about Europe, Germany and the surrounding markets there, a little bit challenged. There were a couple of specific markets that we've had some strength for a while. Spain, Portugal, Italy, in particular, over time have been solid and performing really nicely. As we move forward and really take a look at where we think 2025 is going overall, globally, we kind of view as pretty flat. So as we think about international markets in 2025, pretty flat.

當我們考慮歐洲、德國和周邊市場時，我們面臨一些挑戰。有幾個特定市場我們已經有一段時間佔據優勢。尤其是西班牙、葡萄牙和義大利，長期以來一直表現穩定，非常出色。隨著我們繼續前進並真正審視 2025 年全球整體發展情況，我們認為這一趨勢相當平穩。因此，當我們考慮 2025 年的國際市場時，我們會發現它相當平穩。

So in the prior periods, Joe, we've kind of walked through and covered what we've seen from Asia Pacific and the way that, that market has performed over time. We feel like we feel like that, for example, is overall slight growth in 2025. But for the most part again, we're guiding to a flat global environment from a retail standpoint.

因此，喬，在之前的時期中，我們已經回顧並介紹了亞太地區的情況以及該市場隨著時間的推移的表現。例如，我們感覺到 2025 年整體會略有成長。但從零售的角度來看，大多數情況下我們仍引導著一個平穩的全球環境。

Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc.

諾亞·扎茨金（Noah Zatzkin），KeyBanc。

Maybe just a couple on HDFS. I guess, first, how are you feeling about the health of the book. And then in light of SOFR declining, I know you guys have variable rate debt, but what are kind of the big moving pieces on the expense or the income side that's driving the decline in the guide? And then is there some expected credit loss baked in their conservatism? I'm just trying to better understand that.

也許只是 HDFS 上的幾個。我想，首先，您對這本書的健康狀況有何感想。然後，鑑於 SOFR 下降，我知道你們擁有浮動利率債務，但在費用或收入方面，哪些重大變動因素導致了指南的下降？那麼，他們的保守主義是否包含一些預期的信用損失呢？我只是想更好地理解這一點。

Okay. Great. Thank you, Noah. So as we look at HDFS, I think overall health of the book, a couple of things. So as we think through some of the some of the sort of historical originations.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，諾亞。因此，當我們看一下 HDFS 時，我認為這本書的整體健康狀況有幾件事。因此，當我們思考某些歷史起源時。

There's a little bit of pressure as we think about some of the variability in motorcycle values over time. So as we look towards the final quarter of 2024 and forward, we feel like if you remember, there is a tremendous rise up in used values in the period following COVID. There's a little bit of normalization. As we go through and we look at statistics and kind of performance over the last few months, we feel like there's probably stability in where used values are. So that's a positive.

當我們考慮到摩托車價值隨時間的變化時，我們會感到一點壓力。因此，當我們展望 2024 年最後一個季度及未來時，如果您還記得的話，我們感覺在 COVID 之後的時期內，二手價值會大幅上升。有一點點正常化。當我們回顧並查看過去幾個月的統計數據和表現時，我們感覺使用價值可能會比較穩定。這是積極的。

From a consumer perspective, again, with recent originations, we've been originating at very, very high credit quality. So the overall kind of mix of the portfolio is looking pretty strong and pretty healthy.

從消費者的角度來看，最近我們的貸款發放品質非常非常高。因此，投資組合的整體組合看起來非常強勁且健康。

So I think that's a positive. When we kind of look at things in an absolute dollar perspective, we feel good from a percentage standpoint, some things pop out a little bit. So as we work with our dealer network to really bring down wholesale inventory levels, you see that reflected negatively in HDFS results.

所以我認為這是積極的。當我們從絕對美元角度看待事物時，從百分比的角度看我們會感覺良好，有些事情會稍微突出一些。因此，當我們與經銷商網路合作以真正降低批發庫存水準時，您會發現這對 HDFS 的結果產生了負面影響。

So that's a big part of what you're seeing on a year-over-year basis relative to what we guide is wholesale asset levels from a year-over-year standpoint that come down. We also recognize that as we've had a little bit of a challenged sales environment in comparison to where we were in kind of the year or years immediately following COVID. That puts a little bit of pressure on asset levels as those customers continue to pay down their loans. So overall, I would say that we're pretty pleased with the health of the book. We feel like it's being managed in a way that's pretty positive.

因此，與我們預期的相比，從同比角度來看，批發資產水準下降了很大一部分。我們也意識到，與新冠疫情爆發後的一年或幾年相比，我們面臨的銷售環境有些挑戰。由於這些客戶繼續償還貸款，這給資產水平帶來了一點壓力。總的來說，我想說我們對這本書的健康狀況非常滿意。我們感覺它的管理方式非常正面。

Percentages can throw things off a little bit just because of numerator denominator effect. And then when we think about Fed rate, as we look at the parts of our portfolio that are actually tied to a variable rate, that's the wholesale business. So our dealers will continue to see savings in wholesale rate between units that aren't being delivered at the same level and where Fed rates are going, but that does put a little bit of pressure on HDFS.

由於分子分母效應，百分比可能會使事情稍微偏離。然後，當我們考慮聯準會利率時，我們會發現我們的投資組合中實際上與浮動利率掛鉤的部分就是批發業務。因此，我們的經銷商將繼續看到，交付水準不同的單位與聯準會利率之間的批發利率有所節省，但這確實給 HDFS 帶來了一點壓力。

So for the most part, it's a story of kind of assets, the story of some benefit that accrues to the dealers rather than the HDFS business. And then the other piece that we always consistently work to manage is that as we bring on any new debt that's at a higher debt level than where we were three, four years ago.

因此，在很大程度上，這是一個關於資產的故事，是一個關於經銷商而非 HDFS 業務獲​​得某種利益的故事。我們始終努力管理的另一個問題是，當我們承擔任何新債務時，其債務水平都會比三、四年前的水平更高。

So we just have a little bit of sort of short-term normalization around that. But overall, continue to be very pleased with that business.

因此，我們只是對此進行了一點短期正常化。但總體而言，我對這項業務仍然非常滿意。

Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO Capital Markets.

特里斯坦·托馬斯·馬丁 (BMO 資本市場)。

Two kind of housekeeping questions. I believe you mentioned growing to HDMC operating income margin target in the future. Is that still 15%? And then just quickly following up on Noah's question. Was there any CECL accounting change embedded in the HDFS guidance?

兩種管理問題。我相信您提到了未來 HDMC 營業收入利潤率目標的成長。那還是15%嗎？然後快速回答一下諾亞的問題。HDFS 指南中是否存在任何 CECL 會計變更？

Yes, Tristan, as I've mentioned, we continue to believe the 15% target is achievable. And if we assume '26 balanced retail production and wholesale business or shipments and then think about achieving a double-digit margin in '26 if we can achieve that with this year's outlook, the 15% target is still achievable. But obviously, that requires us get a slight volume growth that is support and that we believe is actually -- is going to be supported through exciting new products that we are launching. I've mentioned in my opening remarks that we are also entering -- having an entry-level motorcycle in select markets, starting off next year and the small Cruiser segment in following years. So supported with product launches, we believe the 50% is possible.

是的，特里斯坦，正如我所提到的，我們仍然相信 15% 的目標是可以實現的。如果我們假設 26 年零售生產和批發業務或出貨量實現平衡，然後考慮在 26 年實現兩位數的利潤率，如果我們能夠按照今年的前景實現這一目標，那麼 15% 的目標仍然是可以實現的。但顯然，這需要我們獲得輕微的銷售成長作為支持，而我們相信這實際上將透過我們即將推出的令人興奮的新產品來支持。我在開場白中提到，我們也將進入這一領域——從明年開始，我們將在特定市場推出入門級摩托車，並在接下來的幾年中推出小型巡洋艦市場。因此，在產品發布的支持下，我們相信 50% 是可能的。

But it's hard to give you a time line on that other than the double-digit operating profit that we believe is achievable, assuming that we achieved this year's levels. So yes, we feel comfortable. I think we are positioned well. But obviously, we need some tailwinds and slightly improved retail environment and power sports industry, which we haven't seen now for two years in a row. So I think that has to happen.

但除了我們認為可以實現的兩位數營業利潤（假設我們達到了今年的水平）之外，很難給你一個時間表。是的，我們感覺很舒服。我認為我們處於有利地位。但顯然，我們需要一些順風和略微改善的零售環境和強勁的運動產業，而這是我們連續兩年都沒有看到的。所以我認為這必然會發生。

We need some tailwinds overall, not significant, but certainly not a depressed market as we've seen in all of powersports, RVs, Marine, pretty much anything that's discretionary. So that will have to happen for us to achieve those 15% operating margin.

總體而言，我們需要一些順風，雖然不是很明顯，但肯定不是低迷的市場，正如我們在動力運動、房車、船舶以及幾乎所有非必需品領域看到的那樣。所以我們必須這樣做才能達到 15% 的營業利益率。

And then really quickly, just on Tristan's side, CECL change question. So from an HDFS perspective, we did adjust reserves up a little bit as we think about, again, to your point, CECL lifetime loss valuation, we did add a small amount to make sure that we are covered from that standpoint.

然後很快，就在特里斯坦這邊，CECL 改變了問題。因此，從 HDFS 的角度來看，我們確實對儲備進行了一點調整，因為我們再次考慮到您的觀點，即 CECL 終身損失估值，我們確實增加了少量儲備，以確保從這個角度來看我們得到保障。

Brandon Rollé, DA Davidson.

布蘭登‧羅萊 (Brandon Rollé)，地方檢察官戴維森 (DA Davidson)。

Just a quick one on LiveWire. How far away are we from seeing a profit on the LiveWire business? It's been a headwind to earnings for years now. And I guess I'm wondering, clients are wondering, is there anything that would change your mind about continuing down this path with LiveWire? And how committed are you to this business?

關於 LiveWire 我只是簡單介紹一下。我們距離 LiveWire 業務獲利還有多遠？多年來，這一直是企業獲利的阻力。我想知道，顧客也想知道，有什麼事情會改變您繼續使用 LiveWire 這個想法嗎？您對這項事業有多投入？

Well. I'll let Karim, take part with the outlook, and then I'm going to comment from a Harley perspective.

出色地。我先讓卡里姆 (Karim) 參與討論，然後我將從哈雷的角度發表評論。

Yes. Thank you, Jochen. Thanks, Brandon. Look, from the LiveWire perspective, as you saw, we are reducing our expenses quite significantly year-over-year. We do work on accelerating our path to profitability.

是的。謝謝你，約亨。謝謝，布蘭登。從 LiveWire 的角度來看，正如您所看到的，我們的開支逐年大幅削減。我們確實致力於加快實現盈利。

We have an internal program very aggressive on reducing our BOM cost. We do see actually an opportunity to have contribution margin positive by the end of the year between all of the work we've done on BOM costs on conversion costs, et cetera. That will be the first step before we actually break even the business.

我們有一個非常積極的內部計劃來降低 BOM 成本。我們確實看到了一個機會，即透過我們在物料清單成本、轉換成本等方面所做的所有工作，在年底前實現貢獻利潤率的正增長。這是我們真正實現收支平衡之前的第一步。

Obviously, it was mentioned before, I think, by Alex that it's a demand adoption challenge right now, but there are segments and markets where EV is having some traction, especially if you look at Europe, the max-scooters, the other type of mobility segment, which we announced back at ECMA. And we really believe that we're working towards where the market is going when EV bring additional value. And -- so we'll keep working on this. We do have a plan to accelerate our path to profitability. You start seeing some very significant improvement this year, and you should expect to continue seeing some improvements.

顯然，我認為亞歷克斯之前提到過，現在面臨的是需求採用方面的挑戰，但在某些領域和市場，電動車還是有一定的吸引力，尤其是如果你看看歐洲，例如最大踏板車，另一種類型的移動領域，我們在 ECMA 上宣布了這一點。我們確實相信，當電動車帶來附加價值時，我們正在努力順應市場的發展方向。所以——我們會繼續努力。我們確實有一個計劃來加速我們的獲利之路。今年你會開始看到一些非常顯著的改善，你應該期待繼續看到一些改善。

For the second part of your question, I'll let Jochen comment.

對於你問題的第二部分，我將讓約亨發表評論。

Yes, Brandon, as I said, we are evaluating the business performance of LiveWire very carefully. There are a lot of benefits that LiveWire bring beyond electrification to Harley as well. But obviously, we are not achieving the targets that we've set out for many different reasons, EV adoption being -- a slower pace of EV adoption, obviously being a contributing factor. So we will watch this very carefully. LiveWire needs to perform, and we've invested a significant amount of money, and that performance needs to happen.

是的，布蘭登，正如我所說，我們正在非常仔細地評估 LiveWire 的業務表現。除了電氣化之外，LiveWire 還為哈雷帶來了許多好處。但顯然，由於各種原因，我們未能實現既定目標，其中電動車的採用速度較慢顯然是一個因素。因此我們將密切關注此事。LiveWire 需要發揮其性能，我們已經投入了大量資金，而且它必須發揮其性能。

Otherwise, we'll obviously have to look at some optionalities here. But we are committed to the business at this point, but we need to see improvements in the business performance. Based on Karim and what he has mentioned, I think using the losses continuously and really focusing hard on reducing the cash flow is critical and then adoption and sales obviously need to show up. And this year, we'll need to prove that.

否則，我們顯然必須在這裡考慮一些可選方案。但我們目前致力於業務，但我們需要看到業務績效的改善。根據 Karim 以及他所提到的內容，我認為持續利用損失並真正集中精力減少現金流是至關重要的，然後顯然需要實現採用和銷售。今年，我們需要證明這一點。

Jaime Katz, Morningstar.

晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

I just want to stay on that electric topic. I guess I'm thinking about this new product that you guys are launching. And given the strain or lack of support, from a retail perspective or demand, I guess, what was the strategic purpose of rolling out a new product where there's low demand in the segment? And I guess, where does the incremental investment lie with that? And what does the profit margin opportunity look like for that new unit?

我只是想繼續討論電氣話題。我想我是在考慮你們即將推出的這款新產品。並且考慮到壓力或缺乏支持，從零售角度或需求來看，我想，在需求較低的細分市場中推出新產品的策略目的是什麼？我想問一下，增量投資在哪裡呢？那麼新部門的利潤率機會是什麼樣的呢？

Just trying to think about that profit progression.

只是想思考一下利潤的成長。

Just to clarify, are you talking about the Alpinista launch that we just had on the S2 platform?

只需澄清一下，您說的是我們剛剛在 S2 平台上推出的 Alpinista 嗎？

The maxi-scooter that I assume is going into the P&L of LiveWire.

我認為這款大型踏板摩托車將進入 LiveWire 的損益表。

Yes, it is correct. Okay. Thank you for clarifying. So that scooter is expected to hit market in 2026. We are right now working diligently on the development of it.

是的，正確。好的。感謝您的澄清。因此該踏板車預計將於 2026 年上市。我們現在正努力地開發它。

There is a strategic rationale for it, which is pretty strong for us. It does leverage 2 key things. The first one is the S2 platform, which is fully developed in market right now and know-how and expertise of our second largest shareholder, KYMCO, who are already in this market segment.

這其中有其戰略依據，對我們來說非常有力。它確實利用了兩個關鍵因素。第一個是S2平台，目前已在市場上充分開發，並且擁有我們第二大股東KYMCO的專業知識和經驗，而KYMCO已經進入了這個細分市場。

So when you take the combination of the 2, we feel like we have everything it takes to come and have a value proposition for this specific segment that would be extremely compelling, not only in terms of performance, but in terms of market positioning as well. There is a push and there is actually growth in this maxi-scooter segment, EV right now in Europe, in particular.

因此，當將兩者結合起來時，我們覺得我們已經具備了一切條件，可以為這一特定領域提出極具吸引力的價值主張，不僅在性能方面，而且在市場定位方面也是如此。目前，大型踏板車市場，尤其是在歐洲，尤其是在電動車市場，正面臨推動，而且實際上正在成長。

So we are clearly targeting this segment next year.

所以我們明年的目標顯然是這一領域。

If I just may add from a Harley-Davidson perspective, the LiveWire has not invested into a new platform, but it's using the existing S2 platform to launch line extensions. And that is one of the major reasons why we are also operating with a smaller engineering team at this point, not investing into a new platform or bigger platform, which was originally planned. which is the reason why we -- why LiveWire is able to reduce the operating loss significantly to between $70 million and $80 million and the cash burn as well. And therefore, the focus right now is really getting BOM costs out, reducing cost of sales and reducing the loss per bike. But as I said, we will have to watch -- we are watching this very carefully with a mid- to long-term perspective in mind and look at the risk and rewards going forward to decide how the business is going to be positioned in the future.

我從哈雷戴維森的角度補充一點，LiveWire 並未投資新平台，而是使用現有的 S2 平台來推出產品線擴展。這也是我們目前採用較小工程團隊運作、而非按原計劃投資新平台或更大平台的主要原因之一。這就是為什麼 LiveWire 能夠將營業虧損大幅減少至 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元之間，現金消耗也減少的原因。因此，目前的重點是真正降低 BOM 成本、降低銷售成本並減少每輛自行車的損失。但正如我所說的，我們必須觀察——我們正在從中長期的角度密切關注這個問題，並考慮未來的風險和回報，以決定未來的業務定位。

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。