Lulu's Fashion Lounge Holdings Inc (LVLU) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Lulu's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and we have allocated 1 hour for prepared remarks and Q&A. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Naomi Beckman-Straus, General Counsel at Lulu's. Thank you. You may begin.

    下午好,歡迎來到 Lulu 的第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中,我們分配了 1 小時用於準備好的評論和問答。現在,我想將會議轉交給 Lulu's 的總法律顧問 Naomi Beckman-Straus。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Naomi Beckman-Straus - General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

    Naomi Beckman-Straus - General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Lulu's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 results.

    大家下午好,感謝您加入我們討論 Lulu 的第四季度和 2022 財年業績。

  • Before we begin, we would like to remind you that this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements made on this call that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements regarding leadership transition, management's expectations, plans, strategies, goals and objectives and their implementation, our future expectations regarding financial results, references to the year ending December 31, 2023, market opportunities, product launches and other initiatives and our growth. These statements, which are subject to various risks uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these statements.

    在我們開始之前,我們想提醒您,本次電話會議將包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議上做出的與歷史事實無關的所有陳述都應是考慮的前瞻性陳述,包括但不限於關於領導層交接、管理層的期望、計劃、戰略、目標和目標及其實施的陳述、我們對財務業績的未來預期、對截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年度的參考、市場機會、產品發布和其他舉措以及我們的成長。這些陳述受各種風險不確定性、假設和其他重要因素的影響,可能導致我們的實際結果、業績或成就與這些陳述明示或暗示的結果、業績或成就存在重大差異。

  • These risks, uncertainties and assumptions are detailed in this afternoon's press release as well as our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 1, 2023, filed with the SEC on March 14, 2023, all of which can be found on our website at investors.lulus.com. Any such forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of the date of this call. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or information, except as required by law.

    這些風險、不確定性和假設在今天下午的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了詳細說明,包括我們於 2023 年 3 月 14 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2023 年 1 月 1 日止財政年度的 10-K 表格年度報告,所有這些都可以在我們的網站 investors.lulus.com 上找到。任何此類前瞻性陳述均代表管理層截至本次電話會議之日的估計。雖然我們可能會選擇在未來某個時候更新此類前瞻性陳述,但我們不承擔修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述或信息的義務,除非法律要求。

  • During our call today, we will also reference certain non-GAAP financial information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and net debt. We use non-GAAP measures in some of our financial discussions as we believe they more accurately represent the true operational performance and underlying results of our business. The presentation of this non-GAAP financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for or superior to the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP. Our non-GAAP measures may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures as well as the description, limitations and rationale for using each measure can be found in this afternoon's press release and in our SEC filings.

    在我們今天的電話會議中,我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 財務信息,包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和淨債務。我們在一些財務討論中使用非 GAAP 指標,因為我們相信它們更準確地代表了我們業務的真實運營績效和基本結果。本非 GAAP 財務信息的列報不應被孤立地考慮,也不能替代或優於根據 GAAP 編制和列報的財務信息。我們的非 GAAP 措施可能不同於其他公司使用的非 GAAP 措施。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 措施的調節以及使用每項措施的描述、限制和理由可以在今天下午的新聞稿和我們的 SEC 文件中找到。

  • Joining me on the call today are Executive Chairman of the Board, David McCreight; our CEO, Crystal Landsem; President and CIO, Mark Vos; and our CFO, Tiffany Smith. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for your questions.

    今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會執行主席大衛·麥克雷特 (David McCreight);我們的首席執行官 Crystal Landsem;總裁兼首席信息官 Mark Vos;以及我們的首席財務官 Tiffany Smith。在我們準備好的評論之後,我們將開始徵集您的問題。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給大衛。

  • David W. McCreight - Executive Chairman of the Board

    David W. McCreight - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Naomi, and good afternoon, everyone. I want to begin by thanking the Lulu's crew, who continue to do a tremendous job executing on our strategy and pleasing our millions of brand fans. I am delighted to pass the baton to Crystal Landsem, who officially assumed the role of CEO on March 6, 2023.

    謝謝你,Naomi,大家下午好。首先,我要感謝 Lulu 的工作人員,他們繼續出色地執行我們的戰略並取悅我們數百萬的品牌粉絲。我很高興將接力棒傳遞給 Crystal Landsem,她於 2023 年 3 月 6 日正式擔任首席執行官一職。

  • Crystal has been a wonderful partner who has a deep understanding of our business and customer, embodies our core values and has consistently demonstrated her leadership as we've scaled and grown the company these last few years together. As we've communicated in November, I've transitioned to the Executive Chairman role after a rewarding few years as Lulu's CEO. This transition has been part of a long-term plan since I joined the company, and I am thrilled to leave the business in the capable hands of this excellent management team.

    Crystal 一直是一位出色的合作夥伴,她對我們的業務和客戶有著深刻的了解,體現了我們的核心價值觀,並且在過去幾年我們一起擴大和發展公司的過程中始終如一地展示了她的領導能力。正如我們在 11 月份所傳達的那樣,在擔任 Lulu 的首席執行官幾年後,我已經轉任執行主席一職。自從我加入公司以來,這種轉變一直是長期計劃的一部分,我很高興能將業務交到這個優秀的管理團隊的能手手中。

  • Their commitment to the brand and Lulu's customer is inspiring. Over the next few seasons, I'm confident Crystal and team will continue to make great strides in building on Lulu's strong brand equity and evolving our go-to-market strategy for the future. I can't wait to see what Lulu's does next.

    他們對品牌和 Lulu 客戶的承諾令人鼓舞。在接下來的幾個賽季中,我相信 Crystal 和團隊將繼續在建立 Lulu 強大的品牌資產和發展我們未來的上市戰略方面取得長足進步。我迫不及待地想看看露露接下來會做什麼。

  • I'll turn it over to Crystal so you can now hear directly from her as CEO. Crystal?

    我會把它交給 Crystal,這樣你現在就可以直接聽到她作為 CEO 的消息。水晶?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm honored and thrilled to have assumed the role as CEO. It's been an incredible 7 years so far at Lulu's, and I'm very much looking forward to leading this exceptional and dedicated team as we continue to execute our long-term growth plans. I'd like to start with some full year highlights following our first full year as a public company, followed by our key priorities for 2023.

    謝謝你,大衛,大家下午好。我很榮幸也很高興能夠擔任首席執行官一職。到目前為止,在 Lulu's 度過了令人難以置信的 7 年,我非常期待在我們繼續執行長期發展計劃的過程中領導這支傑出而敬業的團隊。在我們作為上市公司的第一個完整年度之後,我想先介紹一些全年亮點,然後是我們 2023 年的主要優先事項。

  • 2022 net revenue of $440 million was up $64 million or 17% year-over-year from $376 million in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA of $29.1 million, an 11.4% 3-year CAGR despite no incurring public company expenses and developing infrastructure to position Lulu's for long-term growth. Active customers grew 17% over last year, with an all-time record of repeat customers engaging with our brand.

    2022 年的淨收入為 4.4 億美元,比 2021 年的 3.76 億美元增長了 6400 萬美元,同比增長 17%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 2910 萬美元,3 年復合年增長率為 11.4%,儘管沒有產生上市公司費用,也沒有開發基礎設施來定位 Lulu's長期增長。活躍客戶比去年增長了 17%,與我們品牌互動的回頭客創歷史新高。

  • We implemented automation and robotics in our distribution center network, driving operational efficiencies, cost savings and increased employee morale by vastly reducing travel distances to pick, pack and ship orders, also resulting in an improved customer experience by reducing the time between order and shipment.

    我們在我們的配送中心網絡中實施了自動化和機器人技術,通過大大減少揀選、包裝和運送訂單的行程距離來提高運營效率、節約成本並提高員工士氣,同時通過縮短訂購和發貨之間的時間來改善客戶體驗。

  • Roughly 83% of our units sold without markdown pricing, right in line with pre-pandemic years. And those units sold on markdown sold on average at a higher, more profitable net merchandise margin than pre-pandemic periods. We completed the move of our creative studio to a location adjacent to our Southern California buying office. And already, we're seeing the benefits of that move through strong new product conversion, which we expect to continue in the future.

    我們大約 83% 的單位在沒有降價的情況下售出,與大流行前的年份一致。與大流行前時期相比,那些以降價出售的單位平均以更高、更有利可圖的淨商品利潤率出售。我們完成了將創意工作室搬到南加州採購辦公室附近的地點。而且,我們已經看到通過強大的新產品轉換帶來的好處,我們希望在未來繼續這樣做。

  • We continue testing and expanding more into brand awareness marketing while maintaining first order contribution margin profitability and year-over-year active customer growth. Our marketing initiatives remain efficient and impactful. At its core, Lulu's continues to be a profitable, data-driven growth concept with a customer-led assortment, and we believe the runway is long. We believe we have significant opportunity to grow our brand fan community and occupy more space in her closet. Our consumer insights and customer feedback tells us she is seeking opportunities to experience our brand beyond our digital platform, and we believe there is consumer demand outside the U.S.

    我們繼續測試並更多地擴展到品牌知名度營銷,同時保持一階貢獻利潤率和同比活躍客戶增長。我們的營銷計劃仍然有效且有影響力。 Lulu's 的核心仍然是一個盈利的、數據驅動的增長概念,以客戶為主導的分類,我們相信跑道很長。我們相信我們有很大的機會發展我們的品牌粉絲社區並在她的衣櫥裡佔據更多空間。我們的消費者洞察和客戶反饋告訴我們,她正在尋找機會在我們的數字平台之外體驗我們的品牌,我們相信美國以外也有消費者需求。

  • In addition to capturing more wallet share in the digital space, we see an opportunity to broaden our distribution channels across both digital and physical platforms, increase our international penetration and pursue incremental wholesale opportunities. Consistent with everything we do at Lulu's, we will follow a data-driven, test-and-learn, capital-light strategy when pursuing these opportunities, which is further supported by our strong balance sheet.

    除了在數字領域獲得更多錢包份額外,我們還看到了一個機會,可以擴大我們在數字和實體平台上的分銷渠道,提高我們的國際滲透率,並尋求增量批發機會。與我們在 Lulu's 所做的一切一致,我們在追求這些機會時將遵循數據驅動、測試和學習、輕資本戰略,我們強大的資產負債表進一步支持了這一戰略。

  • We have benefited from robotics and automation investments and see opportunity to further increase operational efficiencies through continued investments across our distribution facilities. Above all, we believe our business model is resilient and adaptable. Let me remind you of the unique characteristics, which enable us to execute through these uncertain times for the consumer and achieve our goals for long-term profitable growth.

    我們從機器人技術和自動化投資中受益,並看到了通過對我們的配送設施進行持續投資來進一步提高運營效率的機會。最重要的是,我們相信我們的商業模式具有彈性和適應性。讓我提醒您一些獨特的特徵,這些特徵使我們能夠為消費者度過這些不確定的時期,並實現我們的長期盈利增長目標。

  • First and foremost, we are not a fast fashion retailer. We are a lifestyle brand whose loyal customers appreciate the durability, uniqueness and quality of our assortment relative to the price. As a reminder, over 90% of the items we sell are Lulu's branded. Further, and unlike many in the apparel industry, shifting demand does not necessarily mean obsolete inventory and excessive markdowns. Roughly half of our inventory can be carried from 1 season to the next and much of the remaining half is often brought back as a reorder product the following year. Also, our data-driven product development reduces fashion risk so we're able to respond appropriately from an inventory perspective when preferences do change.

    首先,我們不是快時尚零售商。我們是一個生活方式品牌,其忠實客戶欣賞我們產品系列相對於價格的耐用性、獨特性和質量。提醒一下,我們銷售的 90% 以上的商品都是 Lulu 的品牌。此外,與服裝行業的許多人不同,需求變化並不一定意味著庫存過時和過度降價。我們大約有一半的庫存可以從一個季節轉移到下一個季節,剩下的一半通常會在第二年作為再訂購產品帶回。此外,我們的數據驅動產品開發降低了時尚風險,因此當偏好發生變化時,我們能夠從庫存角度做出適當的反應。

  • Second, we have a nimble and largely variable cost structure in the largest components of our operating expenses, specifically in marketing, staffing and product costs for the future. So we're in a position to adjust a large part of our cost structure on an as-needed basis in order to preserve profitability.

    其次,我們在運營費用的最大組成部分中擁有靈活且變化很大的成本結構,特別是在未來的營銷、人員配置和產品成本方面。因此,我們能夠根據需要調整大部分成本結構,以保持盈利能力。

  • Third, we believe we have one of the fastest inventory turns in the industry. Our data-driven merchandising process allows for optimization of inventory turns. So even in the most challenging macroeconomic environments, we're able to stay nimble and take a brand-friendly surgical approach to our inventory management.

    第三,我們相信我們擁有業內最快的庫存周轉率之一。我們的數據驅動銷售流程可以優化庫存周轉率。因此,即使在最具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境中,我們也能夠保持靈活,並採用品牌友好的手術方法來管理我們的庫存。

  • Fourth, we have a capital-light model, which typically generates positive cash flow from operations. Thanks to our bespoke internal technology platforms and our highly skilled operations teams, we're able to react to demand patterns quickly, enabling us to expand or contract our distribution networks just in time with minimal impact to the business or the balance sheet versus needing to invest in large-scale operations ahead of unknown growth trajectories.

    第四,我們有一個輕資本模式,通常從運營中產生正現金流。得益於我們定制的內部技術平台和我們高技能的運營團隊,我們能夠快速響應需求模式,使我們能夠及時擴展或收縮我們的分銷網絡,同時將對業務或資產負債表的影響降到最低,而不是需要在未知的增長軌蹟之前投資於大規模運營。

  • And finally, we have a solid balance sheet without any term loan debt, bolstered by strategic investments, resulting in further operational efficiencies as well as an agile business model with a nimble cost structure. With significant liquidity available, we believe we are well positioned to navigate the evolving business conditions and continue to invest in future growth and capitalize on our brand's potential.

    最後,在戰略投資的支持下,我們擁有穩健的資產負債表,沒有任何定期貸款債務,從而進一步提高運營效率以及具有靈活成本結構的敏捷業務模型。憑藉可觀的流動性,我們相信我們有能力駕馭不斷變化的商業環境,並繼續投資於未來的增長並利用我們品牌的潛力。

  • Moving on to the fourth quarter. We generated revenues of $91 million and produced a modest adjusted EBITDA deficit of about $1 million. I'm proud of our team's ability to manage through such a dynamic and evolving environment. As a reminder, unlike many consumer brands, Q4 is our smallest quarter from a revenue perspective, while fixed expense levels remain fairly consistent throughout the year. Our LTM active customer count continues to grow, increasing 17% from last year to 3.2 million. Average order value declined modestly by 2% in the fourth quarter.

    繼續第四季度。我們創造了 9100 萬美元的收入,並產生了約 100 萬美元的適度調整後 EBITDA 赤字。我為我們的團隊在這樣一個充滿活力和不斷發展的環境中進行管理的能力感到自豪。提醒一下,與許多消費品牌不同,從收入的角度來看,第四季度是我們收入最少的一個季度,而固定費用水平全年保持相當穩定。我們的 LTM 活躍客戶數量繼續增長,比去年增長 17% 至 320 萬。第四季度平均訂單價值小幅下降 2%。

  • That being said, like others in the industry, we witnessed inconsistent consumer behavior during the quarter, characterized by volatile traffic trends and conversion. We attribute this to macro pressures leading our customer to be more discerning with her spending. Similar to our peers, we responded to this by shifting marketing spend to product discounts. Our assortment resonated with our customer during Q4, and she thought items that could be worn for many occasions. We are particularly pleased with the gains we experienced in some of our non-dress categories. These gains reinforce our conviction in the opportunity to occupy more space in her closet beyond the core occasion wear categories.

    話雖這麼說,與業內其他人一樣,我們在本季度目睹了不一致的消費者行為,其特點是流量趨勢和轉化率不穩定。我們將此歸因於宏觀壓力導致我們的客戶對她的支出更加挑剔。與我們的同行類似,我們通過將營銷支出轉移到產品折扣上來對此做出回應。我們的產品組合在第四季度引起了客戶的共鳴,她認為這些產品可以在多種場合穿著。我們對我們在一些非服裝類別中獲得的收益感到特別高興。這些收益加強了我們的信念,即有機會在她的衣櫥中佔據核心場合服裝類別之外的更多空間。

  • For 2023, based on the uncertain macro consumer environment, combined with the return to pre-pandemic wedding event cycles, we are targeting revenues of $410 million to $430 million. Driven by the combination of maintaining flexibility on product pricing to meet customer demand in the near term that is likely to temporarily soften merchandise margins, as well as maintaining investments in order to catalyze future growth and expansion of our brand across both digital and physical distribution channels, we estimate our adjusted EBITDA will be between $23.1 million and $25.6 million.

    對於 2023 年,基於不確定的宏觀消費環境,再加上回歸大流行前的婚禮活動週期,我們的目標收入為 4.1 億至 4.3 億美元。受保持產品定價靈活性以滿足短期內可能暫時軟化商品利潤率的客戶需求以及維持投資以促進我們品牌在數字和實體分銷渠道中的未來增長和擴張的雙重推動,我們估計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2310 萬美元至 2560 萬美元之間。

  • As we announced last week, Tiffany Smith, our former VP of Finance, assumed the role of CFO on March 6, 2023, and she will provide more details about Q4 and 2023 guidance. I am thrilled to have Tiffany take over this role given her intimate knowledge of Lulu's financials, her holistic and strategic approach to financial decision-making and her genuine love for our customer. As expected, the leadership transition has been seamless given that Tiffany, Mark and I have all collaborated in developing the long-term strategy building for Lulu's.

    正如我們上周宣布的那樣,我們的前財務副總裁蒂芙尼史密斯將於 2023 年 3 月 6 日擔任首席財務官一職,她將提供有關第四季度和 2023 年指導的更多詳細信息。鑑於蒂芙尼對 Lulu 的財務狀況瞭如指掌、她對財務決策制定的整體戰略方法以及對我們客戶的真誠熱愛,我很高興讓蒂芙尼接任這一職務。正如預期的那樣,鑑於蒂芙尼、馬克和我都合作制定了露露的長期戰略建設,領導層的交接是無縫的。

  • We expect to maintain the same focus and vision for the company that we've previously communicated, including growing brand awareness and attracting new customers, retaining, enhancing and broadening our existing customer relationships through physical and digital channels, pursuing further product category expansion and developing international markets.

    我們希望保持我們之前傳達的公司的相同重點和願景,包括提高品牌知名度和吸引新客戶,通過物理和數字渠道保留、加強和擴大我們現有的客戶關係,進一步擴大產品類別和發展國際市場。

  • Before I turn it over to Mark to provide an update on operational and marketing efforts, I'd like to express my gratitude to our team and their relentless dedication to building our brands and creating value for our shareholders in this very dynamic ever-changing environment.

    在我將其轉交給馬克提供運營和營銷工作的最新情況之前,我想對我們的團隊表示感謝,感謝他們在這個瞬息萬變的環境中不懈地致力於打造我們的品牌並為我們的股東創造價值.

  • And now I'd like to turn the call over to Mark Vos, our President and Chief Information Officer. Mark?

    現在我想把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席信息官 Mark Vos。標記?

  • Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

    Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

  • Thank you, Crystal. In Q4, we continued to invest in our operations to expand the foundations for growth and drive further operational efficiencies. We have finished testing and setting up our fulfillment and returns processing capacity in our Southern California facility, so we can go live as soon as this incremental capacity is needed. We are also on track with the introduction of robotics into our Northern California fulfillment center in the first half of this year.

    謝謝你,水晶。在第四季度,我們繼續投資於我們的運營,以擴大增長的基礎並進一步提高運營效率。我們已經在南加州工廠完成測試和設置我們的履行和退貨處理能力,因此我們可以在需要這種增量能力時立即投入使用。我們也在今年上半年將機器人技術引入我們的北加州運營中心。

  • After the successful implementation of robotics in our Eastern Pennsylvania facility, we have seen a variable fulfillment labor productivity gain of over 20% in that facility, and we aim to accomplish similar results in the Northern California fulfillment center.

    在我們賓夕法尼亞州東部的工廠成功實施機器人技術後,我們發現該工廠的履行勞動生產率提高了 20% 以上,我們的目標是在北加州的履行中心取得類似的成果。

  • Now some color around our customers. We are proud of our large and diverse community of loyal customers that are passionate about the Lulu's brand. At the end of Q4, we had 3.2 million active customers compared to 2.76 million active customers at the end of Q4 in 2021, a 17% increase year-over-year, reflecting double-digit gains among new and repeat customers. In Q4 2022 compared to Q4 2021, we saw flat to positive year-over-year customer count growth in most of the middle to lower household income segments, who are drawn to our accessible luxury positioning.

    現在我們的客戶周圍有些顏色。我們為我們龐大而多元化的忠誠客戶社區感到自豪,他們對 Lulu's 品牌充滿熱情。與 2021 年第四季度末的 276 萬活躍客戶相比,截至第四季度末,我們擁有 320 萬活躍客戶,同比增長 17%,反映了新客戶和回頭客的兩位數增長。與 2021 年第四季度相比,在 2022 年第四季度,我們看到大多數中低收入家庭的客戶數量同比持平或正增長,他們被我們的輕奢定位所吸引。

  • Customers in our loyalty program maintained higher AOV and higher order frequency, and we continue to focus on expanding the number of customers joining and staying in the program by adding loyalty benefits over time. As a reminder, the loyalty program is focused on customer engagement, not discounting. We also see continued growth in our mobile app revenue, primarily driven by continued increases in downloads and usage, combined with a higher conversion rate than mobile app. In 2023, we will continue to invest in our mobile app with features our customers are requesting, and to further support our marketing efforts.

    我們忠誠度計劃中的客戶保持了更高的 AOV 和更高的訂單頻率,並且我們繼續專注於通過增加忠誠度福利來增加加入和留在計劃中的客戶數量。提醒一下,忠誠度計劃的重點是客戶參與,而不是折扣。我們還看到我們的移動應用程序收入持續增長,這主要是由於下載量和使用量的持續增加,以及比移動應用程序更高的轉化率。 2023 年,我們將繼續投資於具有客戶要求的功能的移動應用程序,並進一步支持我們的營銷工作。

  • In previous calls, we have mentioned that, just like other retailers and brands have seen, return rates remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic years. Some adjustments to our return policy will be made for heavy and excessive returners, and we remain committed to our customers by providing a safe, frictionless conversion path with our existing 10-day free return period.

    在之前的電話中,我們已經提到,就像其他零售商和品牌所看到的那樣,與大流行前幾年相比,退貨率仍然很高。我們將針對重度和過度退貨者對退貨政策進行一些調整,我們將通過現有的 10 天免費退貨期提供安全、無摩擦的轉換路徑,繼續致力於為客戶服務。

  • Switching gears to marketing. Our cost of customer acquisition in Q4 2022 was slightly higher than Q3 2022 but comparable with previous quarters and years, and we also maintained first quarter contribution margin profitability. Q4, in general, is a very competitive and expensive quarter for marketing, and we remain focus on contribution margin positive marketing investments. We were pleased to see meaningful improvements in impressions, earned media value generation, traffic and conversions in the affiliate, social and influencer marketing channels, which were also great supporting drivers of our national cadence.

    轉向營銷。我們在 2022 年第四季度的客戶獲取成本略高於 2022 年第三季度,但與之前的季度和年度相當,我們還保持了第一季度的邊際貢獻盈利能力。總的來說,第四季度是一個競爭非常激烈且成本高昂的營銷季度,我們仍然專注於邊際收益積極的營銷投資。我們很高興看到聯盟、社交和有影響力的營銷渠道在印象、贏得媒體價值生成、流量和轉化方面有了有意義的改善,這也是我們全國節奏的重要支持驅動力。

  • I am proud of the marketing, logistics, customer service and technology teams who in this dynamic environment continue to deliver first-order contribution margin profitable marketing results, authentic customer experiences with Lulu's brand hug and expanded the foundations of our continued growth.

    我為營銷、物流、客戶服務和技術團隊感到自豪,他們在這個充滿活力的環境中繼續提供一流的邊際貢獻利潤率營銷成果,通過 Lulu 的品牌擁抱提供真實的客戶體驗,並擴大了我們持續增長的基礎。

  • With that, I will hand the call over to Tiffany Smith, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the quarter in more financial detail.

    有了這個,我將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官蒂芙尼史密斯,以更詳細地討論本季度的財務細節。

  • Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

    Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

  • Thanks, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me start out by saying how excited I am to be taking on the CFO role. I look forward to engaging with you and working closely with Crystal, Mark and David to continue to execute our long-term growth strategies.

    謝謝,馬克,大家下午好。首先讓我說一下我對擔任首席財務官一職感到多麼興奮。我期待著與您合作,並與 Crystal、Mark 和 David 密切合作,繼續執行我們的長期增長戰略。

  • Moving on to the fourth quarter. While we were not immune to the macro and industry-wide challenges, as Mark spoke about earlier, we are pleased that we continue to post gains across many of our key consumer-related metrics. We benefited in Q4 from the combination of new customers acquired and continued loyalty from our existing customer base. However, our net revenues decreased 6% to $91 million. Total orders fell by 3%, and average order value fell 1% to $119.

    繼續第四季度。正如馬克之前所說,雖然我們無法倖免於宏觀和全行業的挑戰,但我們很高興我們繼續在許多與消費者相關的關鍵指標上取得進展。我們在第四季度受益於獲得的新客戶和現有客戶群的持續忠誠度。然而,我們的淨收入下降了 6% 至 9100 萬美元。總訂單下降 3%,平均訂單價值下降 1% 至 119 美元。

  • Return levels moderated slightly in Q4 when compared to the prior year as well as sequentially quarter-over-quarter. Gross margins for the fourth quarter declined by about 760 basis points to 37.3%, driven primarily by 2 key factors: higher discounting and continued higher outbound and return shipping costs, both compared to the same period in the prior year.

    與去年同期和環比相比,第四季度的回報水平略有下降。第四季度的毛利率下降了約 760 個基點至 37.3%,主要受兩個關鍵因素的驅動:與去年同期相比,更高的折扣以及持續更高的出境和退貨運費。

  • The impact of higher markdowns and discounts to gross merchandise margin compared to last year was roughly 490 basis points. Our customers gravitated towards lower price point items during the quarter compared to Q4 2021, which benefited from a higher concentration of events-related products with higher merchandise margins.

    與去年相比,更高的降價和折扣對商品毛利率的影響約為 490 個基點。與 2021 年第四季度相比,我們的客戶在本季度傾向於購買價格較低的商品,這得益於活動相關產品的集中度更高,商品利潤率更高。

  • Als, as a reminder, in Q4 2021, we were turning inventory so quickly that there was very little room or need for promotional activity as our inventory turns were around 9x on an LTM basis. Higher shipping costs impacted gross margins by about 260 basis points. Also worth noting is our gain in the quarter in the higher-margin Lulu's branded product sales as a percentage of total unit sales coming in over 90% of our Q4 demand, reinforcing our customers' preference for our Lulu's branded products.

    另外,提醒一下,在 2021 年第四季度,我們的庫存周轉速度如此之快,以至於幾乎沒有促銷活動的空間或需求,因為我們的庫存周轉率約為 LTM 的 9 倍。較高的運輸成本影響了毛利率約 260 個基點。同樣值得注意的是,我們本季度利潤率較高的 Lulu 品牌產品銷售額佔總單位銷售額的百分比超過了我們第四季度需求的 90%,這加強了客戶對我們 Lulu 品牌產品的偏好。

  • Moving down the P&L to give some insights into expense line items. Q4 selling and marketing expenses were $16.5 million, down about $1 million from the same period in the prior year. This was primarily due to shifting some performance marketing spend into discounts, a component of net revenue, to support higher promotional levels during the quarter, which was a more effective lever to engage and convert our customers. As we've done many times in the past, we reallocated performance marketing spend to promotional discounts, which can be a more productive use of capital in periods where digital marketing costs are inflated or overly competitive.

    向下移動損益表以深入了解費用項目。第四季度銷售和營銷費用為 1650 萬美元,比去年同期減少約 100 萬美元。這主要是由於將一些績效營銷支出轉為折扣,這是淨收入的一個組成部分,以支持本季度更高的促銷水平,這是吸引和轉化客戶的更有效槓桿。正如我們過去多次所做的那樣,我們將績效營銷支出重新分配給促銷折扣,這在數字營銷成本膨脹或競爭過度的時期可以更有效地利用資本。

  • When viewing promotional discounts and marketing spend in the aggregate, the increase in spend as a percentage of gross demand for the quarter was 40 basis points compared to pre-pandemic Q4 period averages. In spite of the macro headwinds, we continue to invest in marketing activities as we strive to broaden our customer base and grow brand awareness. As Mark highlighted earlier, we remain first order contribution margin profitable during the quarter, even with elevated promotions and shipping costs, a testament to the effectiveness and resilience of our business model. To us, this reinforces the success of our disciplined and data-driven marketing approach.

    在總體上查看促銷折扣和營銷支出時,與大流行前第四季度的平均水平相比,本季度支出佔總需求的百分比增加了 40 個基點。儘管存在宏觀逆風,我們在努力擴大客戶群和提高品牌知名度的同時,繼續投資於營銷活動。正如 Mark 之前強調的那樣,即使促銷和運輸成本增加,我們在本季度仍然保持了第一筆訂單邊際利潤,這證明了我們商業模式的有效性和彈性。對我們來說,這加強了我們有紀律和數據驅動的營銷方法的成功。

  • General and administrative expenses fell by $6.8 million to $23.5 million, driven by lower stock-based compensation expenses compared to the same period in 2021. Excluding stock-based compensation expense, general and administrative expenses declined by $1 million despite a full quarter of public company expenses compared to a partial quarter of public company expenses in Q4 '21. Interest expense declined by $1.3 million to $409,000, the result of paying off our long-term debt last year with proceeds from the IPO.

    一般和行政費用下降 680 萬美元至 2350 萬美元,這是由於與 2021 年同期相比較低的股票薪酬費用。不包括基於股票的薪酬費用,儘管上市公司整整一個季度,一般和行政費用下降了 100 萬美元支出與 21 年第四季度上市公司支出的部分季度相比。利息支出減少 130 萬美元至 409,000 美元,這是去年我們用 IPO 的收益償還長期債務的結果。

  • For the quarter, we reported a loss per share of $0.14, which is an improvement of $4.55 compared to a loss per share of $4.69 in the fourth quarter of 2021. And finally, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was a loss of $972,000 compared to positive adjusted EBITDA of $6.4 million in the same period in 2021. Our Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 1.1% compared to a positive 6.6% in the same period in 2021.

    本季度,我們報告每股虧損 0.14 美元,與 2021 年第四季度的每股虧損 4.69 美元相比改善了 4.55 美元。最後,第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為虧損 972,000 美元,相比之下2021 年同期調整後的 EBITDA 為 640 萬美元。我們第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為負 1.1%,而 2021 年同期為正 6.6%。

  • Moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow statement. We believe our balance sheet remains strong and positions us well to execute our long-term growth plans and manage through near-term macro uncertainty. Similar to the past several quarters, one key change compared to last year worth noting is we adopted the accounting lease standards under ASC 842 at the beginning of fiscal 2022, resulting in offsetting assets and liabilities reflected on the balance sheet this year that were not reported on the 2021 balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash of $10.2 million and a balance of $25 million drawn on our revolver, resulting in net debt of roughly $14.8 million.

    轉到資產負債表和現金流量表。我們相信我們的資產負債表依然強勁,使我們能夠很好地執行我們的長期增長計劃並應對近期的宏觀不確定性。與過去幾個季度類似,與去年相比值得注意的一個關鍵變化是我們在 2022 財年初採用了 ASC 842 下的會計租賃標準,導致抵消了今年資產負債表上未報告的資產和負債在 2021 年的資產負債表上。本季度結束時,我們的現金為 1020 萬美元,我們的左輪手槍餘額為 2500 萬美元,導致淨債務約為 1480 萬美元。

  • In light of recent disruptions in the banking industry, it is important to highlight that we maintain our corporate banking relationship with Bank of America. Our inventory balance at quarter end was $43 million, up $21 million from the same period last year. The majority of this growth was planned and intentional to better support our fast-turning model. As a reminder, in Q4 2021, we were turning over 9x on an LTM basis and had indicated our need to chase into more inventory not only to better serve our customers, but to also insulate us from supply chain risk, specifically from China.

    鑑於最近銀行業的混亂,重要的是要強調我們與美國銀行保持我們的企業銀行業務關係。我們在季度末的庫存餘額為 4300 萬美元,比去年同期增加 2100 萬美元。這種增長的大部分是有計劃和有意的,以更好地支持我們快速轉變的模式。提醒一下,在 2021 年第四季度,我們的 LTM 周轉率達到了 9 倍,這表明我們需要追逐更多庫存,這不僅是為了更好地為我們的客戶服務,也是為了使我們免受供應鏈風險,特別是來自中國的風險。

  • Year-ending inventory levels were down $6.2 million or 13% from Q3 2022 levels as consistent with our seasonal fluctuations. We anticipate our year-over-year inventory growth comparisons will normalize and be more in line with revenue growth beginning in Q2 2023. On an annual basis, we feel a year-ending inventory balance of $43 million in a year with $440 million in net revenue is a solid way to end the year and prepare for the upcoming busy season in late Q1 and Q2. We remain a very quick inventory turning brand with what we believe are industry-leading turns.

    與我們的季節性波動一致,年終庫存水平比 2022 年第三季度水平下降了 620 萬美元或 13%。我們預計,從 2023 年第二季度開始,我們的同比庫存增長比較將正常化,並與收入增長更加一致。按年計算,我們認為年終庫存餘額為 4300 萬美元,淨收入為 4.4 億美元收入是結束今年並為即將到來的第一季度末和第二季度的旺季做準備的可靠方式。我們仍然是一個非常快速的庫存周轉品牌,我們認為這是行業領先的周轉。

  • As always, we aim to be disciplined in our inventory management approach, and we'll continue to relentlessly pursue further optimization of inventory levels that balances the customer experience and minimizes markdown risk. As a reminder, our data-driven buying model results in roughly 70% of our buyers being proven sellers with lower markdown risk. New styles during the quarter resonated particularly well, which gives us conviction in the strength of our reorder pipeline.

    一如既往,我們的目標是在我們的庫存管理方法中遵守紀律,我們將繼續不懈地追求進一步優化庫存水平,以平衡客戶體驗並將降價風險降至最低。提醒一下,我們的數據驅動購買模型導致大約 70% 的買家成為降價風險較低的可靠賣家。本季度的新款式反響特別好,這讓我們對我們的再訂購管道的實力充滿信心。

  • We are a fresh fashion concept, not fast fashion, which means our inventory mostly consists of products that are relevant across seasons and in many cases, for multiple years. So we're less exposed to inventory obsolescence and the ensuing markdown risk. Nothing speaks to this more than our average number of units sold on markdown, which in a normal non-pandemic year, were consistently between 16.5% to 17%. 2022 was no exception to that, with roughly 16.6% of units sold with markdown pricing. Said differently, approximately 83% of units were sold without markdown pricing. Also worth noting, our gross merchandise margin for products sold on markdown have increased over time, with 2022 being roughly 10 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic years. We continue to operate a highly capital-efficient business that positions us to generate positive cash flow.

    我們是一個新鮮的時尚概念,而不是快時尚,這意味著我們的庫存主要包括跨季節相關的產品,在許多情況下,可以使用多年。因此,我們較少受到庫存過時和隨之而來的降價風險的影響。沒有什麼比我們在正常的非大流行年份中降價銷售的平均單位數量更能說明這一點的了,該數字始終在 16.5% 至 17% 之間。 2022 年也不例外,大約 16.6% 的單位以降價銷售。換句話說,大約 83% 的單位是在沒有降價的情況下售出的。同樣值得注意的是,我們以降價銷售的產品的商品毛利率隨著時間的推移而增加,2022 年比大流行前年份高出約 10 個百分點。我們繼續經營資本效率高的業務,使我們能夠產生正現金流。

  • Moving on to guidance. We are expecting 2023 full year net revenues between $410 million and $430 million. As you think about modeling revenue for our business, in a normalized year, our net revenue is typically highest in our second and third fiscal quarters due to demand seasonality for event dressing, with Q4 typically representing the lowest net revenue and profit quarter of our fiscal year.

    繼續指導。我們預計 2023 年全年淨收入在 4.1 億美元至 4.3 億美元之間。當您考慮為我們的業務建模收入時,在標準化的一年中,由於活動著裝的需求季節性,我們的淨收入通常在第二和第三財政季度最高,而第四季度通常代表我們財政的最低淨收入和利潤季度年。

  • We are not a gifting destination and typically do not participate proportionately in holiday peak season sales volume like other retailers in our space. As it relates to 2023 half 1 comparisons, Q1 and Q2 last year reflected 62% and 27% year-over-year net revenue growth, respectively, as those quarters benefited from pent-up demand as our customer refreshed her wardrobe to return to her social calendar as COVID-related constraints eased, including wedding-related events, which are expected to decline in 2023.

    我們不是送禮目的地,通常不會像我們領域的其他零售商那樣按比例參與假日旺季銷售量。關於 2023 年上半年的比較,去年第一季度和第二季度的淨收入分別同比增長 62% 和 27%,因為這兩個季度受益於被壓抑的需求,因為我們的客戶更新了她的衣櫥以返回她的身邊隨著 COVID 相關限制的放鬆,包括與婚禮相關的活動,社交日曆預計將在 2023 年減少。

  • Recent revenue trends in the first 9 weeks of the quarter are pacing to negative mid- to high teens when compared to our 62% comps in Q1 '22, with the declines primarily attributed to the general macroeconomic environment as well as the previously cited decline in wedding-related events.

    與我們在 22 年第一季度的 62% comps 相比,本季度前 9 週的近期收入趨勢正在走向負中高青少年,下降主要歸因於總體宏觀經濟環境以及之前提到的下降與婚禮有關的活動。

  • For modeling purposes, our guidance contemplates that we expect to turn to positive comps in the second half of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $23.1 million and $25.6 million. This equates to an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 5.6% and 6%. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance captures incremental investments in support of longer-term initiatives. Our guidance targets are for the full year 2023. To set expectations for modeling purposes, our quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin rates have similar seasonality fluctuations as our net revenues, and will likely fluctuate above or below our full year guidance rate depending on the quarter.

    出於建模目的,我們的指導預期我們預計將在 2023 年下半年轉為正收益。調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 2310 萬美元至 2560 萬美元之間。這相當於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 5.6% 到 6% 之間。我們調整後的 EBITDA 指南捕捉了支持長期計劃的增量投資。我們的指導目標是 2023 年全年。為建模目的設定預期,我們的季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率與我們的淨收入具有類似的季節性波動,並且可能會根據季度的不同在我們的全年指導率之上或之下波動。

  • As a result of paying down our long-term debt following the IPO, we continue to expect modest levels of interest expense for 2023 at approximately $1.1 million, in line with 2022, driven by a lower outstanding balance on our revolving line of credit, offset by higher interest rates. We currently have $25 million drawn on our $50 million revolver. Our guidance contemplates that we will begin paying down the revolver in Q1 2023 and to be net debt free by the end of 2023.

    由於在 IPO 後償還了我們的長期債務,我們繼續預計 2023 年的利息支出將保持適度水平,約為 110 萬美元,與 2022 年持平,這是由於我們的循環信貸額度的未償餘額減少,抵消了通過更高的利率。我們目前從 5000 萬美元的左輪手槍中提取了 2500 萬美元。我們的指導預期我們將在 2023 年第一季度開始償還左輪手槍貸款,並在 2023 年底之前實現無淨債務。

  • Stock-based compensation expense for the quarter was down $5.8 million from Q4 2021, primarily due to IPO-related stock-based compensation expense accelerations in the prior year. Stock-based compensation expense is expected to be approximately $16 million to $19 million in 2023, which captures $1.2 million in accelerated expenses in Q1 associated with David McCreight voluntarily forfeiting his unvested stock options and the conversion of certain potential performance-based bonuses from cash to equity-based for 2023 tied to net revenue and adjusted EBITDA financial criteria. For 2023, we expect a weighted average fully diluted share count of approximately 40.6 million shares.

    本季度基於股票的薪酬支出比 2021 年第四季度減少了 580 萬美元,這主要是由於上一年與 IPO 相關的基於股票的薪酬支出加速增長。到 2023 年,基於股票的薪酬支出預計約為 1600 萬至 1900 萬美元,其中包括 120 萬美元的第一季度加速支出,與 David McCreight 自願放棄其未歸屬的股票期權以及將某些潛在的基於績效的獎金從現金轉換為基於股權的 2023 年與淨收入和調整後的 EBITDA 財務標準掛鉤。到 2023 年,我們預計加權平均完全攤薄股數約為 4060 萬股。

  • Moving on to capital expenditures. We expect to invest between $5 million and $6 million. We're focused on setting the stage for future growth opportunities, enhancing the customer experience and driving further operating efficiencies. For 2023, we will continue to invest in distribution center automation and robotics capabilities, which are expected to drive further labor efficiencies.

    轉向資本支出。我們預計投資 500 萬至 600 萬美元。我們專注於為未來的增長機會奠定基礎,提升客戶體驗並進一步提高運營效率。到 2023 年,我們將繼續投資於配送中心自動化和機器人技術能力,這有望進一步提高勞動效率。

  • And with that, I'll pass it back to Crystal for closing remarks.

    然後,我將把它傳回給 Crystal 作結束語。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Tiffany. We'd like to take a moment to thank each of you, Lulu's crew, our brand fans, shareholders and Board for their continued support as we continue to work towards executing on our strategy and delighting our customers.

    謝謝你,蒂芙尼。我們想花點時間感謝你們每個人、Lulu 的工作人員、我們的品牌粉絲、股東和董事會,感謝他們在我們繼續努力執行我們的戰略和取悅我們的客戶時的持續支持。

  • With that, we'll turn it over to questions now.

    有了這個,我們現在將其轉為問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自布魯克羅奇與高盛的合作。

  • Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

    Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

  • Crystal, I was wondering if you could talk to your confidence in driving the reacceleration of revenue growth in the second half following what appears to be a tough 1H, what assumptions are contemplated in that improved outlook?

    Crystal,我想知道在 1H 似乎艱難之後,你是否可以談談你對推動下半年收入增長重新加速的信心,在改善的前景中考慮了哪些假設?

  • And then for Tiffany, can you talk a little bit more about the puts and takes within your margin outlook for the year? What assumptions do you have for promotionality and shipping expense, among others?

    然後對於蒂芙尼,你能多談談你今年利潤率展望中的看跌期權和收益嗎?您對促銷和運費等有哪些假設?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Brooke, for us and the way that our business runs, we're typically -- as we talked about, not so large in Q4, also not so large in Q1, but we continue to get momentum going into Q2, 3 and 4. And we think that this year is going to be very similar to that. Our guidance is contemplating the macro level not really getting any better, but more a normalization of markdowns and discounts and a more normalized promotional cadence for us. We think it was outsized last year in the second half. So from our perspective, it's more of business as usual with the normalization back to what we expect to be business as usual for us in the second half.

    Brooke,對於我們和我們的業務運營方式來說,我們通常——正如我們所說的那樣,在第四季度沒有那麼大,在第一季度也沒有那麼大,但我們在第二、第三和第四季度繼續保持勢頭。我們認為今年將與那年非常相似。我們的指導是考慮宏觀層面並沒有真正好轉,而是降價和折扣的正常化以及我們的促銷節奏更加正常化。我們認為去年下半年的規模過大。因此,從我們的角度來看,隨著正常化回到我們期望在下半年對我們照常營業的情況,它更多的是照常營業。

  • Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

    Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

  • Sure. And Brooke, just to follow on to your second point of the question. This is Tiffany. Nice to meet you. Basically, in terms of puts and takes anticipated this year in terms of margin, overall, we're anticipating gross margins to be relatively flat for the year with, I would say, our merch margin, probably under the most pressure in the first half of the year, given we're going up against a fairly non-promotional period in half 1 of last year with some improvement on that in the second half in terms of merch margin.

    當然。 Brooke,請繼續回答問題的第二點。這是蒂芙尼。很高興見到你。基本上,就今年預期的利潤率而言,總體而言,我們預計今年的毛利率將相對持平,我想說的是,我們的商品利潤率可能在上半年承受最大壓力考慮到去年上半年我們正處於一個相當非促銷期,下半年在商品利潤方面有所改善。

  • As that flows through to gross margin, shipping cost is a key lever there where we have experienced cost pressures. We're working very actively, our teams are, in terms of managing the shipping costs this year, making modifications and tweaks where we can with regard to carrier diversification to help us to mitigate sort of those cost increases and pressures that we felt last year. And should those continue into this year, we feel like we've got good plans in place to mitigate those.

    由於這會影響毛利率,運輸成本是我們經歷成本壓力的關鍵槓桿。我們正在非常積極地工作,我們的團隊在管理今年的運輸成本方面,在承運人多元化方面進行了我們可以做的修改和調整,以幫助我們減輕去年我們感受到的成本增加和壓力.如果這些情況持續到今年,我們覺得我們已經制定了良好的計劃來緩解這些問題。

  • Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

    Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

  • Could I just ask 1 more? I think a couple of times in the script, you mentioned plans for physical channels, and perhaps wholesale. Can you talk a little bit more about that pivot into physical channels that you're planning for the year?

    我可以再問 1 個嗎?我想在劇本中有幾次,你提到了實體渠道的計劃,也許還有批發。你能多談談你今年計劃轉向實體渠道嗎?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • I wouldn't necessarily call it a pivot, Brooke. What I would say is it's more of investing in what we had spoken about 1 year, 1.5 years ago when we originally went public is that we're going to be wherever our customer is and where she wants to engage with us. And we've got continued feedback from her that she prefers or would also like to engage with us in an in-person experience. And while we're not ready to talk about the details of that, we will be over the next couple of quarters providing updates around our investments and how strategically they will be doing so. But I guess the direct answer is we will be investing in more in-person experiences, and the way that manifests will be talk for our next quarterly call.

    我不一定會稱其為支點,布魯克。我要說的是,更多的是投資於我們在 1 年,1.5 年前我們最初上市時所說的內容,即我們將在客戶所在的任何地方以及她想與我們互動的地方。我們從她那裡得到了持續的反饋,她更喜歡或者也願意與我們進行面對面的體驗。雖然我們還沒有準備好談論這方面的細節,但我們將在接下來的幾個季度中提供有關我們投資的最新信息以及他們將如何從戰略上這樣做。但我想直接的答案是我們將投資於更多的親身體驗,而體現的方式將是我們下一個季度電話會議的談話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next comes from the line of Janine Stitcher with BTIG.

    我們的下一個來自 BTIG 的 Janine Stitcher 系列。

  • Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst

    Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst

  • Hoping you can elaborate a little bit more on what you're seeing in Q1 to date in terms of the sales trends, how much is being driven by active customer growth in orders versus what you're seeing on AOVs. And then within that, would like to hear more about the promotionality that you're seeing in the environment? What does it look like as the quarter progressed in Q4, and then what you're seeing within the broader environment in Q1 to date.

    希望您能更詳細地說明您在第一季度看到的銷售趨勢,有多少是由活躍的客戶訂單增長和您在 AOV 上看到的驅動的。然後,想听聽更多關於您在環境中看到的促銷活動的信息嗎?第四季度的季度進展情況如何,以及迄今為止您在第一季度更廣泛的環境中看到的情況。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you for the question. So as noted during my prepared remarks, we are comping against very high 62% comp in Q1 of last year, which is really setting up for a challenging quarter. We anticipated this in our guidance in the 9 to 10 weeks in so far, I had cited the 15%, roughly mid-teens negative comp is in line with what we expected. So that's more or less contemplated in. I would say, as far as what's driving the negative comp overall, it's macro -- it's continued macroeconomic pressures that have not yet fully subsided. With that said, we are very confident in terms of our overall strategies to move forward. We have an extremely nimble cost structure that allows us to pull back a lot of variable cost structure where we can really pull back and make adjustments as needed.

    是的。感謝你的提問。因此,正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣,我們正在與去年第一季度非常高的 62% 相比,這確實為一個充滿挑戰的季度做好了準備。到目前為止,我們在 9 到 10 週的指導中預計到了這一點,我引用了 15%,大約是中等的負值符合我們的預期。所以這或多或少是考慮到的。我想說,就推動整體負面影響的因素而言,它是宏觀的——持續的宏觀經濟壓力尚未完全消退。話雖如此,我們對前進的整體戰略非常有信心。我們有一個非常靈活的成本結構,使我們能夠撤回許多可變成本結構,我們可以真正撤回並根據需要進行調整。

  • Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst

    Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst

  • Great. And then just on the broader promotional environment, what you're seeing quarter-to-date?

    偉大的。然後就更廣泛的促銷環境而言,您在本季度看到了什麼?

  • Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

    Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

  • I can speak to the promotional environment. We basically see a continuation of Q4. And in that sense, it's not getting less, so to say, and that is also -- we play -- or need to play a role in that. Everybody is loud and doing all kinds of offers. And we also need to make sure that we are heard every now and then. We do that in various ways. It's not just one single type of promo. We have a diverse set of promos that we execute against.

    我可以談談促銷環境。我們基本上看到第四季度的延續。從這個意義上說,它並沒有減少,可以這麼說,這也是——我們扮演——或者需要在其中扮演角色。每個人都很大聲,並提供各種優惠。我們還需要確保時不時地聽到我們的聲音。我們以各種方式做到這一點。這不僅僅是一種單一類型的促銷。我們執行各種促銷活動。

  • They have different goals, different outcomes, whether that is engagement or reengagement of certain customer groups, whether that is focused on increasing sell-through in particular categories or whether that is simply rewarding customers or driving downloads on our app, right? So there's a wide variety of that. And so we use that as surgically as possible across -- not always, I would say, but specifically now to make sure that we're hitting all the things that we have set out to do. Janine, welcome to the coverage. Look forward to working with you.

    他們有不同的目標,不同的結果,無論是對某些客戶群體的參與還是重新參與,無論是專注於增加特定類別的銷售率,還是僅僅是獎勵客戶或推動我們應用程序的下載,對吧?所以有各種各樣的。因此,我們盡可能以外科手術的方式使用它——我想說的是,並非總是如此,但現在特別是為了確保我們正在實現我們計劃要做的所有事情。珍妮,歡迎來到報導。期待與您合作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line from Mark Altschwager with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Altschwager 與 Baird 的對話。

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • I guess just first, I was hoping to clarify on some of the adjusted EBITDA commentary. I think you said you expect the year to follow typical seasonality, which would be lower profitability maybe in Q4. But just given the more intense sales and gross margin pressure you're pointing to in Q1, is that still the case or maybe just any more granularity on how we should be thinking about that adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter?

    我想首先,我希望澄清一些調整後的 EBITDA 評論。我想你說過你預計今年會遵循典型的季節性,這可能會在第四季度出現較低的盈利能力。但是,鑑於您在第一季度指出的銷售和毛利率壓力更大,情況是否仍然如此,或者我們應該如何考慮第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率,或者只是更細化?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Mark, for the question. So I think that's a good call out and worthy of highlighting for the group because we do typically highlight our lowest profitability and lowest sales quarter of the year is in a normal year Q4. I would say Q1 is giving Q4 a little run for their money this year just in terms of the promotional environment that we're in and the negative sales comps that we're having a comp against the 62% comp from Q1 of last year and 27% in Q2. That's up Q1, I would say this year to be a little more challenged. And so we may see that distinction between Q4 being our lowest profit, lowest sales month. But sort of moderated a little bit with Q1, and you may look at those to be a little bit more similar this year than what they've been in prior years.

    是的。謝謝,馬克,提出這個問題。所以我認為這是一個很好的呼籲,值得為集團強調,因為我們通常會強調我們最低的盈利能力和最低的銷售季度是在正常的第四季度。我想說的是,就我們所處的促銷環境以及我們與去年第一季度的 62% 相比的負銷售業績而言,今年第一季度給第四季度帶來了一點收益第二季度為 27%。這是第一季度,我想說今年的挑戰要大一些。因此,我們可能會看到第四季度是我們利潤最低、銷售額最低的月份之間的區別。但是在第一季度有點緩和,你可能會看到今年的情況比往年更相似。

  • We still expect to see Q2 being our peak season into Q3 still maintain that as far as what you've seen historically there.

    我們仍然希望看到第二季度成為我們進入第三季度的旺季,就您在那裡看到的歷史情況而言,仍然保持這種狀態。

  • Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

    Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

  • Mark, that's not dissimilar than what we have always had where Q1 was just ahead of Q4. So it's not as dramatic a shift as it may seem and that the big shoulders of the business flow through are Q2 and Q3.

    馬克,這與我們一直以來的第一季度略高於第四季度的情況沒有什麼不同。因此,它並不像看起來那麼顯著,而且業務流程的主要任務是第二季度和第三季度。

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then I wanted to follow up on AOV. I was hoping you could give a bit more color on the trend you're seeing there. It's one of the bigger quarter-over-quarter changes that we've seen. I'm just curious how we should think about that for 2023. Is this 119-ish level a good way to be thinking about the trend as consumer behavior adjusts?

    好的。然後我想跟進 AOV。我希望你能給你在那裡看到的趨勢多一點色彩。這是我們所看到的較大的季度環比變化之一。我只是好奇我們應該如何考慮 2023 年的情況。隨著消費者行為的調整,這個 119 左右的水平是否是思考趨勢的好方法?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Good question. AOVs just generally speaking, year-over-year context, I would say think of Q1 being relatively flat with some single-digit year-over-year growth in the sequential quarters. Bigger gains coming really in the back half as we start to comp the impacts of higher markdowns and discounts.

    是的。好問題。 AOV 一般而言,與去年同期相比,我想說第一季度相對持平,連續幾個季度同比增長了一些個位數。隨著我們開始計算更高的降價和折扣的影響,更大的收益實際上會在後半部分出現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jonna Kim with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jonna Kim 和 Cowen 的對話。

  • Jungwon Kim - Associate

    Jungwon Kim - Associate

  • Just curious about your non-dress strategy this year as you're lapping strong demand from dresses last year. And then as we think about return rates, what are some key puts and takes that we should consider in our model as you're lapping a lot of demand for dresses from last year, that would be helpful.

    只是好奇你今年的非服裝策略,因為你去年對連衣裙的需求很大。然後,當我們考慮退貨率時,我們應該在我們的模型中考慮哪些關鍵的投入和投入,因為去年你對連衣裙的需求很大,這會很有幫助。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So we have seen great progress across a lot of our event and our non-event apparel. And what's most interesting for us right now is our new customer conversions have been increasing over pre-pandemic years in our non-dress categories. So while we're still doing a really great job with our events and our dress business in general, just the performance of our other categories and product classes specific to non-event apparel is reiterating our thesis that we can take more share for wallet. Now barring the macro environment, we still believe that we have confidence that going forward, we're making the right investments in the right area.

    是的。因此,我們在許多活動和非活動服裝方面都取得了巨大進步。現在對我們來說最有趣的是,在我們的非服裝類別中,我們的新客戶轉化率在大流行前幾年一直在增加。因此,雖然我們在活動和我們的服裝業務方面仍然做得非常好,但我們其他類別和非活動服裝特定產品類別的表現重申了我們的論點,即我們可以在錢包中佔據更多份額。現在排除宏觀環境,我們仍然相信我們有信心向前邁進,我們正在正確的領域進行正確的投資。

  • I think the great thing about our buying model is our customer is driving the assortment. So we're able to flex and pivot wherever she's wanting to drive us. And right now, we're seeing success in many of our, I should say, non-bridal or non-wedding event-related product classes, specifically in dresses, rompers and jumpsuits, but also in our other non-event classes.

    我認為我們的購買模式的好處在於我們的客戶在推動產品的分類。因此,我們可以在她想帶我們去的任何地方靈活調整。現在,我應該說,我們在許多非新娘或非婚禮活動相關的產品類別中都取得了成功,特別是在連衣裙、連身褲和連身褲方面,但在我們的其他非活動類別中也是如此。

  • Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

    Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

  • And I'll jump in on the return rate question. And so I just want to point out, return rates are driven not only by product classes, but also the impact of promotions and markdowns can have meaningful impact on our return rates. And so we've modeled a modest decrease in return rates for the year, which is really driven by, I'd say, the first half of the year, year-over-year, lower -- slightly lower return rates just due to increased expectations that we are being more promotional in half 1 relative to last year.

    我將跳入返回率問題。所以我只想指出,退貨率不僅受產品類別的影響,而且促銷和降價的影響也會對我們的退貨率產生有意義的影響。因此,我們模擬了今年退貨率的適度下降,我想說,這實際上是受今年上半年的影響,與去年同期相比,退貨率略低,只是由於與去年相比,我們對 1 年上半年的促銷活動的期望更高。

  • Also want to just point out, very high level, we're making some policy changes to be rolled out in the coming weeks with regard to return rates, really aimed at preserving our customer-centric free 10-day return period, which is really important to us because we want her to maintain her ability to have products coming into her at-home dressing room and be able to try out different sizes and styles but we do want to roll out some changes to help kind of curb the excessive return behavior.

    還想指出,非常高的水平,我們將在未來幾週內推出一些關於退貨率的政策變化,真正旨在保留我們以客戶為中心的 10 天免費退貨期,這確實是對我們很重要,因為我們希望她能夠保持讓產品進入她在家更衣室的能力,並能夠嘗試不同的尺碼和款式,但我們確實想推出一些改變,以幫助遏製過度退貨行為.

  • We haven't explicitly modeled in decreases in return rates as a result of those policy changes. But just trying to keep things conservative, we are expecting a slight decrease in our return rates for the year.

    由於這些政策變化,我們沒有明確地模擬退貨率的下降。但為了保守起見,我們預計今年的退貨率會略有下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Noah Zatzkin。

  • Noah Seth Zatzkin - Research Analyst

    Noah Seth Zatzkin - Research Analyst

  • Just a couple. I was hoping you could speak to your test and reorder model and kind of the benefits of that model as you navigate an uncertain macro.

    只是一對。我希望你能談談你的測試和重新排序模型,以及當你在不確定的宏觀環境中導航時該模型的好處。

  • And then second, just hoping you could provide some color on inventory composition, your level of comfortability there and just your approach to bringing that in line by Q2.

    其次,只是希望你能提供一些關於庫存構成的顏色,你在那裡的舒適程度,以及你在第二季度之前實現這一目標的方法。

  • Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

    Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

  • I'll take the first part with regard to the benefits of our test-and-learn approach. It's particularly impactful in an environment that we're in right now. So in a difficult environment like this, we lean heavily into our ability to flex up and flex down. We've proven this over the years. We've had to do it in terms of COVID -- the COVID year, and then the years ensuing after COVID where demand return, we're able to really lean into our nimble approach.

    我將在第一部分介紹我們的測試和學習方法的好處。它在我們現在所處的環境中特別有影響力。因此,在這樣一個困難的環境中,我們嚴重依賴於我們的能力來彎曲和彎曲。多年來我們已經證明了這一點。我們必鬚根據 COVID 來做到這一點——COVID 年,然後是 COVID 之後需求恢復的幾年,我們才能真正依靠我們靈活的方法。

  • But the other thing that I think is really critical is with regard to the -- our reorder pipeline in terms of how we build that out. It really gives us a low-risk way to move into new products that she is voting for by buying those. When we introduce those new styles, we're able to use our data-driven approach to essentially decide on what we want to enter into the reorder funnel.

    但我認為真正關鍵的另一件事是關於我們如何構建它的重新訂購管道。它確實為我們提供了一種低風險的方式來進入她通過購買投票支持的新產品。當我們引入這些新樣式時,我們能夠使用我們的數據驅動方法從根本上決定我們想要進入再訂購渠道的內容。

  • So we think that, that -- having that ability to do that and the fact that our whole merchandise model is based on this, really sets us up nicely to have lower risk all around our inventory and then lower gross margin risk in the future just because we don't expect to see the same levels of markdowns as inventory becomes obsolete that you may see with other retail models.

    所以我們認為,擁有這樣做的能力以及我們的整個商品模型都基於此的事實,真的讓我們很好地降低了我們庫存的風險,然後在未來降低毛利率風險因為我們不希望看到與其他零售模式相同的降價幅度,因為庫存變得過時了。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • As it relates to our inventory positioning, I'd say we're pleased with how we ended the year. And as we signaled on previous calls, we have been trying to strategically slow our inventory turns to better meet customer demand, have better size and stock ratios and generally just navigate the challenges in China and the supply chain risk that we feel we're maybe disproportionately exposed to.

    由於它與我們的庫存定位有關,我想說我們對今年結束的方式感到滿意。正如我們在之前的電話會議上表示的那樣,我們一直在努力從戰略上減緩我們的庫存周轉,以更好地滿足客戶需求,擁有更好的規模和庫存比率,並且通常只是應對中國的挑戰和我們認為我們可能面臨的供應鏈風險不成比例地暴露於。

  • And candidly, we're not that concerned about it. We don't lose a lot of sleep at night over our inventory. Most of it was strategic. We are heavy in some areas, but those areas are reorder products that are tested and tried and true. So in that sense, we feel pretty good about our inventory levels. Candidly, we might be 1 or 2 weeks of supply heavier than we would normally be in what we feel an optimized environment, but that's not something that really concerns us in terms of obsolescence or markdown risk just based on the inventory model Tiffany just reviewed.

    坦率地說,我們並不那麼關心它。我們晚上不會因為庫存而失眠。其中大部分是戰略性的。我們在某些領域很重,但這些領域是重新訂購的產品,這些產品已經過測試和嘗試並且是真實的。所以從這個意義上說,我們對我們的庫存水平感覺很好。坦率地說,在我們認為優化的環境中,我們的供應量可能比正常情況下多 1 或 2 週,但僅根據蒂芙尼剛剛審查的庫存模型,就過時或降價風險而言,這並不是我們真正擔心的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Randy Konik with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Randy Konik 與 Jefferies 的合作。

  • Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe with all the different moving pieces this year in 2023 as it relates to impacting your margin structure, maybe just give us a reminder on how you think about what sustainable long-term kind of normalized gross margin and EBITDA margins would look like, that would be super helpful in this time of just some volatility here with the margin structure. So if you could do that, that would be great.

    也許今年 2023 年所有不同的變化都與影響您的利潤率結構有關,也許只是提醒我們您如何看待可持續的長期正常化毛利率和 EBITDA 利潤率是什麼樣的,那會在保證金結構出現一些波動的時候非常有幫助。所以,如果你能做到這一點,那就太好了。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Yes, thanks for the question, Randy. So we haven't actually invested in one of -- a lot in a lot of our cost of goods and management over pricing, where we've not pushed our vendors to optimize our own margin flow-through, which has been such a dynamic environment over these last 3 years. So what we can say is we started hiring internally 4 teams to do just that. So longer term, we feel there's a meaningful benefit to our margin profile as we start to invest in taking more control over our supply chain. So we're looking forward to updating you all over the next few quarters as that progresses.

    是的,謝謝你的問題,蘭迪。所以我們實際上並沒有投資其中一個 - 很多我們的商品成本和定價管理,我們沒有推動我們的供應商優化我們自己的利潤流轉,這一直是動態的過去 3 年的環境。所以我們可以說的是,我們開始在內部招聘 4 個團隊來做到這一點。因此,從長遠來看,我們認為隨著我們開始投資以更好地控制我們的供應鏈,我們的利潤率將獲得有意義的好處。因此,我們期待在接下來的幾個季度中為您提供最新進展。

  • Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

  • And is there any kind of levels you want to point out to that you think that the gross margin should kind of be normalizing at or the EBITDA margins?

    您是否想指出任何一種水平,您認為毛利率應該在 EBITDA 利潤率或 EBITDA 利潤率上正常化?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • I would say we should be able to perform better than our pre-COVID levels and continue to grow based on that as a baseline. I think Tiffany have spoken about our markdowns being at historical lows for the first half of last year, and I think there's a lot of noise between 2020 through 2022. So I would look at improvements over pre-pandemic years, yes.

    我想說我們應該能夠比 COVID 之前的水平表現得更好,並以此為基準繼續增長。我認為蒂芙尼已經談到我們的降價在去年上半年處於歷史低點,而且我認為 2020 年到 2022 年之間有很多噪音。所以我會看看大流行前幾年的改進,是的。

  • Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

  • Got you. Okay. May last question...

    明白了好的。最後一個問題...

  • Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

    Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

  • Randy, it's David here. Randy, it is a model that we still believe is going to scale, and there's things that we've built into the structure that will help the flow-through as we continue to scale top line and grow our customers and stay close to this approach. So we go to market with that.

    蘭迪,我是大衛。蘭迪,這是一個我們仍然相信會擴展的模型,我們在結構中內置了一些東西,這些東西將有助於在我們繼續擴大收入和發展客戶並保持接近這種方法的過程中實現流動.所以我們帶著那個去市場。

  • Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

    Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Mark, I just want to ask you about marketing. You gave some perspective on the call. We all know about different changes that have gone on from the Apple privacy standpoint and so on and so forth. When you think about the next few years of allocating marketing dollars, maybe give us some perspective on how you think about -- how you go about changing the allocation of those marketing dollars in the next 3 years or so versus how you deployed them in the last 3 years. How do you kind of think about that in doing the same or different things to kind of get that cost of acquisition to be moving lower going forward?

    是的。馬克,我只想問你關於營銷的問題。你對電話發表了一些看法。我們都知道從 Apple 隱私保護等方面發生的不同變化。當你考慮未來幾年的營銷資金分配時,也許可以給我們一些關於你如何思考的觀點——你如何在未來 3 年左右改變這些營銷資金的分配,而不是你如何部署它們過去 3 年。您如何看待通過做相同或不同的事情來降低未來的購置成本?

  • Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

    Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

  • Great question. Yes. So we have taken the position -- so you're right. So if you look at the past 3 years and certainly historically from a marketing perspective, we have leaned heavily, let's say, from a direct response performance marketing perspective, and we've done really well with that and still do, obviously. Not so much because of privacy or other technology reasons, but more from the perspective that we feel that for the long run, the longer term, switching dollars from that performance marketing towards brand awareness will help us grow faster as well as have benefits as it relates to the efficiency also of the performance marketing.

    很好的問題。是的。所以我們已經採取了立場 - 所以你是對的。因此,如果你回顧過去 3 年,當然從營銷的角度來看歷史,我們已經嚴重依賴,比方說,從直接響應績效營銷的角度來看,我們在這方面做得非常好,而且顯然仍然如此。與其說是因為隱私或其他技術原因,不如說是從我們認為從長遠來看,從績效營銷轉向品牌知名度的資金將幫助我們更快地成長並帶來好處也關係到績效營銷的效率。

  • And so what -- the path that we have put ourselves on is to in a very measured, controlled way to start switching away dollars from the performance marketing side into the brand awareness side. And we have seen, thus far, that we have been able to do so that without raising our overall marketing expense, if you will, to make those shifts deeper into the awareness side. So we feel that we're on a good trajectory, and that is what also the trajectory that we would like to continue to pursue to achieve that one of the key growth levers that we feel in our business that our business has, and that is increasing our brand awareness because that is relatively low, and it presents us with a huge growth opportunity in the future.

    那麼——我們所走的道路是以一種非常有節制、可控的方式開始將資金從績效營銷方面轉移到品牌知名度方面。到目前為止,我們已經看到,如果您願意的話,我們已經能夠在不增加整體營銷費用的情況下做到這一點,從而使這些轉變更深入到意識方面。因此,我們覺得我們正處於良好的軌道上,這也是我們希望繼續追求的軌道,以實現我們在業務中感受到的關鍵增長槓桿之一,即提高我們的品牌知名度,因為它相對較低,這為我們提供了未來巨大的增長機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Edward Yruma 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

  • Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I guess, first, what is the assumed growth or lack of, of new customers in the '23 guide? And I know you indicated that you saw some extraordinary growth in kind of the lower and middle-income cohort. I guess, do you believe that that's kind of pressuring results today? Are you seeing some of the same repeat behavior in some of your historical cohorts?

    我想,首先,'23 指南中假定的新客戶增長或缺乏是什麼?我知道你曾表示你看到中低收入群體出現了一些非凡的增長。我想,您認為今天的結果是有壓力的嗎?您是否在某些歷史同類群組中看到了一些相同的重複行為?

  • And then as a follow-up, just so I'm clear, how much incentive comp build back is baked into the SG&A number for '23?

    然後作為後續行動,我很清楚,23 年的 SG&A 數字中包含了多少激勵補償?

  • Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

    Mark Vos - President & Chief Information Officer

  • I'll take the first part. What we've seen play out over the last couple of quarters and have also projected that forward is the -- basically the slower order frequency or a reduction in order frequency with our customers, she's more either discerning or wants to spend less frequently or is waiting for some deal because like I said, there's lots of promotions out there. So there's also other choices, of course, that can be made. Whatever the mixture there is, is certainly the fact what we see mostly impacting the order frequency. And then on the other hand, due to promotions, we've also then seen obviously the lower AOVs come out as a result of that. And so when you think about it, so it's not necessarily a reduction in active customers, but it's more the frequency of purchases that we've seen primarily within.

    我先講第一部分。我們在過去幾個季度看到的結果,也預測未來是 - 基本上是訂單頻率變慢或與我們的客戶的訂單頻率減少,她要么更有眼光,要么想減少消費,要么是等待一些交易,因為就像我說的,那裡有很多促銷活動。因此,當然還有其他選擇。無論混合情況如何,我們看到的最主要影響訂單頻率的事實肯定是這樣的。另一方面,由於促銷活動,我們也明顯看到 AOV 較低因此而出現。所以當你考慮它時,它不一定是活躍客戶的減少,而是我們主要看到的購買頻率。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • It's more a signal of the macro environment versus anything else.

    與其他任何事物相比,它更像是宏觀環境的信號。

  • Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

    Tiffany R. Smith - CFO

  • And then I'll jump in and on the -- you had a question about stock compensation, feel free to chime in if I misheard it, but just to give you some year-over-year perspective on that we're going from '22 into '23, at the low end, I would say, I provided a range of $16 million to $19 million in terms of stock comp expectations for '23. And I'm going with a range for this year for probably, I would say, one main reason. One main reason is that we're -- we've put into place a lightly restructured performance bonus plan for our employees this year that's shifting away from a cash-based bonus to a stock-based bonus.

    然後我會跳進去 - 你有一個關於股票薪酬的問題,如果我聽錯了,請隨時插話,但只是為了給你一些關於我們將從' 22 到 23 年,在低端,我會說,我提供了 1600 萬美元到 1900 萬美元的範圍,就 23 年的股票補償預期而言。我想說的是,我今年可能會選擇一個範圍,這是一個主要原因。一個主要原因是我們 - 我們今年為我們的員工製定了一項經過輕微重組的績效獎金計劃,該計劃正在從基於現金的獎金轉變為基於股票的獎金。

  • This is entirely for executives tied to key metrics revenue and adjusted EBITDA. And for other bonus eligibles, we'll have similar performance -- financial performance-based tie-ins. So there's going to be some flex there in terms of how high we go in terms of that range. So that's why I provided you with a range there. But otherwise, in absence of that plan, I would say, our stock comp year-over-year would remain relatively flat from '22 to '23, with one exception that was highlighted around some acceleration related to David's options that were forfeited, that's getting accelerated into Q1. However, most of that would have been normally recognized throughout the course of the year. That's sort of just being more front loaded into the year, I would say. Let me know if that answers your question.

    這完全適用於與關鍵指標收入和調整後的 EBITDA 掛鉤的高管。對於其他有資格獲得獎金的人,我們將有類似的表現——基於財務表現的搭配。因此,就我們在該範圍內走多高而言,那裡會有一些彈性。所以這就是為什麼我在那里為你提供了一個範圍。但除此之外,如果沒有該計劃,我會說,從 22 年到 23 年,我們的股票同比將保持相對平穩,但有一個例外是與大衛被沒收的期權相關的一些加速,那就是加速進入第一季度。然而,其中大部分通常會在一年中得到確認。我會說,這只是在今年更早地加載。讓我知道這是否回答了您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is [Alice Shao] on for Lorraine. Congrats, Tiffany. On the full year adjusted EBITDA guidance, can you just elaborate on which investments in key growth initiatives you're referring to there that will cause the pressure? And then do you have any flexibility on those expenses as you kind of observe how sales trends play out?

    我是洛林的 [Alice Shao]。恭喜,蒂芙尼。關於全年調整後的 EBITDA 指引,您能否詳細說明您所指的關鍵增長計劃中的哪些投資會造成壓力?然後,當您觀察銷售趨勢如何發揮作用時,您對這些費用有任何靈活性嗎?

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Thank you so much. It's a great question, and happy to answer this. So just in terms of the -- I'll kind of start from your second question, first. There is a lot of variability in terms of our cost structure, where we are able to make quick adjustments as needed as sales come in better or worse than what we've anticipated. We have levers there that we're able to pull.

    太感謝了。這是一個很好的問題,很高興回答這個問題。所以就-我會先從你的第二個問題開始。我們的成本結構存在很多可變性,我們能夠根據需要快速調整銷售情況好於或差於我們的預期。我們在那裡有我們能夠拉動的槓桿。

  • And in regards to the overall adjusted EBITDA and the investments that are resulting in some of the fixed cost deleveraging this year, I can't provide you a lot of specifics, but I would just say for us as a company, it remains really critical to be committed to growing for the long term, which includes employee-related costs, payroll costs, things like that, where it's very important to continue to have our key strategic initiatives, the original ones that were laid out with our IPO moving forward.

    關於整體調整後的 EBITDA 和今年導致部分固定成本去槓桿化的投資,我無法提供很多細節,但我只想說,作為一家公司,這仍然非常關鍵致力於長期增長,其中包括與員工相關的成本、工資成本等,在這些方面,繼續實施我們的關鍵戰略計劃非常重要,這些計劃是在我們 IPO 推進時制定的。

  • And so we're not making any sort of changes to our strategy.

    因此,我們不會對我們的戰略進行任何形式的改變。

  • We're fully bought into who we are and where we're going. And so we're wanting to maintain those investments, keep initiatives moving forward so that we're not positioned in a spot where we come out of this downturn in the economy, and we're not poised for growth. So we're really committed to remaining poised for what's in the future and the ultimate turnaround in the economy.

    我們完全相信我們是誰,我們要去哪裡。因此,我們希望維持這些投資,繼續推進計劃,這樣我們就不會處於擺脫經濟低迷的境地,也不會為增長做好準備。因此,我們真正致力於為未來和經濟的最終好轉做好準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer question (sic) [session]. And I'll now turn the call back over to Crystal for closing remarks.

    我們已經到了問答問題 (sic) [會話] 的結尾。我現在將把電話轉回給 Crystal 以作結束語。

  • Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

    Crystal Landsem - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, everybody. We appreciate your time and continued support and looking forward to our next call. Have a great rest of your night.

    謝謝大家。感謝您的寶貴時間和一如既往的支持,並期待我們的下一次來電。好好休息一晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的會議到此結束,此時你們可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。