Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2026 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Aaron Howald. Please go ahead.

各位早安，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者 Aaron Howald。請開始。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining LP Building Solutions to discuss our financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and our updated guidance for the second quarter and the remainder of the year. Hosting the call with me this morning are Jason Ringblom and Alan Haughie, who are LP's Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, respectively. After prepared remarks, we will take a round of questions. During today's call, we will be referencing a presentation that has been posted to LP's IR website, which is investor.lpcorp.com.

謝謝您，接線員，各位早安。感謝各位加入 LP Building Solutions，一同討論我們 2026 年第一季的財務結果，以及我們對第二季與今年剩餘期間的最新指引。今天早上與我一同主持電話會議的有 Jason Ringblom 與 Alan Haughie，分別為 LP 的執行長與財務長。在準備好的發言之後，我們將進行一輪問答。今天的電話會議中，我們將引用一份已張貼於 LP 投資人關係網站的簡報，網址為 investor.lpcorp.com。

Our 8-K filing, earnings press release and other materials are also available there. Finally, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics, as described on slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation. The appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. Rather than reading those materials, I will incorporate them by reference. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jason.

我們的 8-K 申報文件、財報新聞稿及其他資料也可在該網站取得。最後，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標，如財報簡報第 2 與第 3 頁所述。簡報附錄亦包含對帳表，並由今天早上的 8-K 申報文件進一步補充。我將不逐字宣讀這些資料，而是以引用方式納入。接下來我把電話交給 Jason。

Thanks, Aaron. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to LP's earnings call for the first quarter of 2026. We appreciate you joining us. I'm proud to say that in the first quarter, LP navigated the challenges of a complex market exceptionally well. Against an increasingly volatile macro backdrop and despite significant impact from winter storms and the conflict in Iran, we delivered on our guidance.

謝謝，Aaron。各位早安，歡迎參加 LP 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。感謝各位加入。我很自豪地說，在第一季，LP 在複雜市場中極為出色地應對各項挑戰。在宏觀環境愈加波動之下，且儘管冬季風暴與伊朗衝突帶來顯著影響，我們仍達成了指引目標。

Price realization, both in Siding and OSB exceeded our expectations, partially offsetting lower volumes and contributing to EBITDA performance above the high end of our guided range. I'll discuss our results for the quarter at a high level before describing what we are seeing in the various markets that we serve.

無論在 Siding 或 OSB，我們的價格實現均超出預期，部分抵銷了較低的出貨量，並推動 EBITDA 表現高於我們指引區間的上緣。我將先從較高層次說明本季結果，接著再談我們在所服務的各個市場中所觀察到的情況。

One highlight that we are incredibly proud of is our safety performance in the quarter. LP team members in North America worked over 1.5 million hours with a world-class total incident rate of only 0.26. I also want to recognize our newest Siding mill in Sagola, Michigan, for achieving two years without a recordable injury.

本季我們非常引以為傲的一項亮點，是我們的安全表現。LP 北美團隊成員共工作超過 150 萬小時，總事故率僅 0.26，達到世界級水準。我也要表揚我們位於密西根州 Sagola 的最新 Siding 工廠，達成連續兩年零可記錄傷害。

Our goal will always be zero injuries, but I want to personally thank every LP team member, who contributes to our award-winning safety culture. From a macroeconomic perspective, given the trajectory with which the housing market weakened over the course of 2025, we expect that the first quarter would be a challenging comparable.

我們的目標永遠是零傷害，但我也想親自感謝每一位 LP 團隊成員，正是你們共同打造了我們屢獲獎項的安全文化。從宏觀經濟角度來看，鑑於 2025 年住房市場走弱的趨勢，我們預期第一季將是一個具挑戰性的可比季度。

Accordingly, as you can see on page 5 of the presentation, our net sales were down compared to the prior year quarter, driven largely by softer OSB demand and lower commodity prices, which fell below EBITDA breakeven for Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year. OSB price softness accounted for a $66 million reduction in net sales and EBITDA. By contrast, the pricing power of SmartSide helped offset lower sales volume, moderating revenue declines.

因此，如各位在簡報第 5 頁所見，我們的淨銷售額較去年同期下降，主要原因是 OSB 需求轉弱與大宗商品價格下跌；該價格在去年第四季與今年第一季均低於 EBITDA 損益兩平水準。OSB 價格疲弱使淨銷售額與 EBITDA 減少 6,600 萬美元。相較之下，SmartSide 的定價能力有助於抵銷較低的銷售量，緩和營收下滑。

LP delivered EBITDA in the quarter of $82 million, representing an $80 million decline year-over-year, primarily from $66 million in lower OSB prices, which I mentioned earlier. Siding EBITDA was only $5 million lower despite 10% lower net sales, with the remaining roughly $9 million attributable to other factors, including South America, and higher corporate unallocated expenses.

LP 本季 EBITDA 為 8,200 萬美元，年減 8,000 萬美元，主要來自我先前提到的 OSB 價格下跌 6,600 萬美元。Siding EBITDA 僅減少 500 萬美元，儘管淨銷售額下降 10%；其餘約 900 萬美元則歸因於其他因素，包括南美業務，以及較高的公司層級未分攤費用。

For the quarter, LP delivered $0.38 in adjusted earnings per share and returned $21 million to shareholders via dividends. I'm pleased to share that we saw minimal impact from crude oil price volatility in the first quarter. This reflects both near-term agility of our supply chain and operations teams as well as the longer-term algorithmic structure of many of our strategic supply contracts.

本季 LP 調整後每股盈餘為 0.38 美元，並透過股利向股東回饋 2,100 萬美元。我很高興分享，第一季原油價格波動對我們的影響極小。這反映了我們供應鏈與營運團隊的短期敏捷性，以及我們許多策略性供應合約在較長期上採用的演算法式結構。

We did see modest increases in freight rates, which was not surprising given how quickly diesel prices respond to crude oil supply disruptions. Overall, however, other inflationary impacts were minimal in the quarter. Alan will share some sensitivity analysis later to help model the direct and indirect impacts of crude oil price volatility on our raw material costs in the second quarter and beyond.

我們確實看到運費率小幅上升，考量柴油價格對原油供應中斷的反應速度，這並不令人意外。不過整體而言，本季其他通膨影響相對有限。稍後 Alan 將分享一些敏感度分析，協助各位在第二季及之後，建模原油價格波動對我們原物料成本的直接與間接影響。

Next, I will go a layer deeper and spend a few minutes describing how the quarter unfolded across the three market segments that the Siding business serves, each representing roughly one-third of Siding volume. I will start with off-site construction, which includes both sheds and manufactured housing.

接下來，我將再深入一層，用幾分鐘說明本季在 Siding 業務所服務的三個市場區隔中的表現；每個區隔約占 Siding 出貨量的三分之一。我將先從場外施工（off-site construction）開始，該區隔包含棚屋（sheds）與組合式住宅（manufactured housing）。

While currently largely consisting of shed volume, opportunities are plentiful, to grow market share and manufacture of housing as well. As discussed on our prior call, prebuys in advance of our annual price increase resulted in elevated channel inventories. This was not exclusively a shed phenomenon, but the impact was disproportionately felt in this segment.

雖然目前主要仍以棚屋出貨量為主，但在提升市占與住宅製造方面也有大量機會。如同我們在上次電話會議所討論的，因應我們年度漲價前的提前備貨（prebuys）導致通路庫存偏高。這並非僅限於棚屋的現象，但此區隔受到的影響相對更為明顯。

In February, we anticipated that this would be a drag on first quarter volumes, while expecting channel inventory to normalize in Q2. I'm pleased to say that this has played out more or less as we expected, while shed volumes were off significantly in the first quarter, sell-through rates held up quite well and channel inventory is now back within seasonally normal ranges.

在 2 月時，我們預期這將拖累第一季出貨量，同時預期通路庫存會在第二季回歸正常。我很高興地說，實際情況大致符合我們的預期：雖然第一季棚屋出貨量顯著下滑，但終端銷售速度（sell-through rates）維持得相當不錯，通路庫存目前也已回到季節性正常區間。

Another one-third of LP Siding volume goes into the repair and remodeling market, with pre-finished ExpertFinish, being our fastest-growing product line within this segment. In the first quarter, ExpertFinish accounted for 12% of our Siding volume and 18% of Siding revenue. We believe that ExpertFinish has a long runway for growth and continued share gains, and we are investing accordingly to support that demand.

LP Siding 另有三分之一的出貨量進入修繕與翻新（repair and remodeling）市場，其中預塗裝的 ExpertFinish 是該區隔內成長最快的產品線。第一季，ExpertFinish 占我們 Siding 出貨量的 12%，並貢獻 Siding 營收的 18%。我們相信 ExpertFinish 仍有很長的成長跑道並可持續提升市占，因此我們正相應加大投資以支援需求。

Our newest ExpertFinish line in Green Bay, Wisconsin, which adds approximately 50 million square feet or 25% to annual capacity is now ramping up and making excellent progress. We also plan to add a further 20 million square feet of capacity at our Bath New York facility later this year.

我們位於威斯康辛州 Green Bay 的最新 ExpertFinish 產線，新增約 5,000 萬平方英尺（約占年產能 25%），目前正逐步爬坡並取得非常良好的進展。我們也計畫在今年稍晚於紐約州 Bath 廠再增加 2,000 萬平方英尺的產能。

And finally, in late April, we acquired a piece of land in North Branch, Minnesota, where we intend to build additional ExpertFinish capacity to support growing demand over time. The final one-third of LP Siding is used in new residential construction. One of our most significant growth opportunities is with the national homebuilders, where we remain relatively underpenetrated. We believe we are uniquely well positioned to build mutually beneficial partnerships with these homebuilders by leveraging SmartSide's labor-saving value proposition together with our integrated portfolio of OSB in Siding. So far, in 2026, we have secured two new builder partnerships, and we continue to actively pursue additional opportunities.

最後，在 4 月下旬，我們在明尼蘇達州 North Branch 收購了一塊土地，計畫興建更多 ExpertFinish 產能，以長期支援持續成長的需求。LP Siding 最後三分之一的用途則是新建住宅施工。我們最重要的成長機會之一來自全國性住宅建商（national homebuilders），而我們在該領域的滲透率仍相對偏低。我們相信，透過 SmartSide 具備節省工時的價值主張，加上我們整合的 OSB 與 Siding 產品組合，我們具備獨特優勢，能與這些建商建立互利的合作夥伴關係。到目前為止，在 2026 年我們已取得兩個新的建商合作案，並持續積極尋求更多機會。

Just to give you a sense of scale for the business we recently secured with the nation's largest homebuilders as well as the magnitude of the opportunity ahead, I'll share some specifics. We currently expect to supply about 100 million square feet of SmartSide in total to 15 of the top 25 US homebuilders.

為了讓各位了解我們近期與全美最大住宅建商所取得業務的規模，以及未來機會的量級，我將分享一些具體數字。我們目前預期將向全美前 25 大住宅建商中的 15 家，合計供應約 1 億平方英尺的 SmartSide。

We estimate that this represents a high single-digit share of the total exteriors market for these builders and a similar high single-digit percentage of our overall SmartSite volume. Again, we believe that the unique value proposition we can offer these homebuilders gives us significant opportunities for additional growth in the years to come.

我們估計，這約占這些建商外牆（exteriors）市場總量的高個位數市占，亦約占我們整體 SmartSide 出貨量的高個位數百分比。再次強調，我們相信我們能為這些建商提供的獨特價值主張，將在未來數年帶來顯著的額外成長機會。

Finally, before I turn the call over to Alan, I want to recognize Dusty McCoy and Ozey Horton, both whom retired last week from LP's Board of Directors. Personally, and on behalf of the entire LP team, I want to thank Dusty and Ozey for their insights, their thoughtful counsel and their contributions to LP's culture and strategic transformation.

最後，在我把電話交給 Alan 之前，我想表揚 Dusty McCoy 與 Ozey Horton；兩位上週已自 LP 董事會退休。我個人以及代表整個 LP 團隊，感謝 Dusty 與 Ozey 的洞見、周到的建議，以及他們對 LP 文化與策略轉型的貢獻。

With that, let me turn the call over to Alan for a more thorough review of LP's financial results and our updated guidance.

接下來，讓我把電話交給 Alan，請他更全面地回顧 LP 的財務結果以及我們更新後的指引。

Thank you, Jason. I'd also like to add my thanks and congratulations to the whole LP team for a very strong quarter for safety. And to Dustin and Ozey for their service on LP's Board of Directors, I know I have certainly benefited from their wisdom and guidance over the last seven years.

謝謝你，Jason。我也想補充，對整個 LP 團隊在本季安全方面的優異表現致上感謝與祝賀。也感謝 Dustin 與 Ozey 在 LP 董事會的服務；我知道在過去七年裡，我確實從他們的智慧與指導中受益良多。

Okay. The first quarter performance for Siding is shown on page 8 of the presentation. In line with expectations, unit volumes were down by 18% year-over-year. And as discussed on the last earnings call, in addition to a slowing market, we exited the fourth quarter with increased channel inventory following the announcement of our January price increases disproportionate amount of that inventory was held by distributors serving our shared customers where elevated inventory led to volume declines both sequentially and year-over-year.

好的。Siding 第一季的表現如簡報第 8 頁所示。符合預期，單位出貨量年減 18%。並且如同上次財報電話會議所討論的，除了市場放緩之外，我們在第四季結束時，因宣布 1 月調價而使通路庫存增加；其中不成比例的一部分庫存由服務我們共同客戶的經銷商持有，而偏高的庫存導致出貨量無論較前一季或較去年同期皆出現下滑。

ExpertFinish, on the other hand, continues to be the best-performing product category within Siding, which in this market means volumes are flat. The 9% increase in selling prices partly mitigated the decline in volume with prime prices increasing by 8% and ExpertFinish prices increasing by 10%.

另一方面，ExpertFinish 仍然是 Siding 之中表現最佳的產品類別；在目前這個市場環境下，這代表出貨量持平。售價上調 9% 在一定程度上抵銷了出貨量下滑，其中 Prime 價格上漲 8%，ExpertFinish 價格上漲 10%。

Now there are a few moving parts within all of this, so let me briefly unpack it. The largest single contributor to the reported 9% price increase is naturally our January 1 list price increase, which averaged 4 to 5 points. The remainder, let's call it 4.5 points is roughly 2.5 points from favorable mix and around 2 points from rebate refinements. Now the mix dynamics are the result of lower volume of shared products within the prime product category and relatively strong volumes for ExpertFinish, including the two-toned natural subcategory, which we launched in the second quarter of 2025.

在這些因素之中有幾個變動項，我簡要拆解說明。已揭露的 9% 價格上漲中，最大的單一貢獻來源自然是我們 1 月 1 日的牌價調漲，平均約貢獻 4 到 5 個百分點。其餘部分，我們稱之為約 4.5 個百分點，約有 2.5 個百分點來自有利的產品組合，另約 2 個百分點來自回饋（rebate）機制的精修。至於組合變化，主要是 Prime 產品類別中共用產品的出貨量較低，而 ExpertFinish 的出貨量相對強勁，其中也包含我們在 2025 年第二季推出的雙色自然（two-toned natural）子類別。

And what I refer to as rebate refinements include the final recognition of lower-than-expected rebate payments relating to the fourth quarter of last year as well as modestly lower rebate accrual rates in 2026, and both factors are, of course, volume related. As we look towards the second quarter, we expect list price realization to remain steady, of course, while mix and rebate impacts will probably normalize somewhat.

而我所稱的回饋精修，包含對去年第四季回饋金支付低於預期的最終認列，以及 2026 年回饋提列率小幅降低；當然，這兩項因素都與出貨量相關。展望第二季，我們預期牌價落實（list price realization）將維持穩定，而產品組合與回饋的影響可能會在某種程度上回歸常態。

So price and volume combined for a revenue reduction of $42 million, but an EBITDA hit of only $8 million. The $2 million reduction in selling and marketing cost is merely timing, and while inflationary costs have been mailed so far, I'll discuss this subject further in a moment. The other bar includes the non-recurrence of the EBITDA benefit of last year's OSB production at Siding mills, more than offset by some inventory build in anticipation of maintenance outages later in the year.

因此，價格與出貨量合計使營收減少 4,200 萬美元，但 EBITDA 僅減少 800 萬美元。銷售與行銷成本減少 200 萬美元僅屬時點因素；而通膨成本迄今為止已被控制住，我稍後會再進一步說明。另一個柱狀項目包含去年 Siding 廠 OSB 生產所帶來的 EBITDA 利益今年不再重現，但被部分庫存增加所抵銷；該庫存增加是為了因應今年稍晚的維修停機。

The resulting EBITDA margin of 28% for Siding was, of course, helped by the rebate and inventory dynamics I mentioned earlier and would be closer to last year's 26% without these factors. But in the long run, the roughly 50% incremental EBITDA on volume, albeit on a decline this quarter, shows the significant leverage that this business will deliver as and when growth resumes.

Siding 的 EBITDA 利潤率因此達到 28%，這當然受我先前提到的回饋與庫存動態所助；若沒有這些因素，利潤率會更接近去年的 26%。但從長期來看，本季雖然出貨量下滑，出貨量變動所帶來約 50% 的增量 EBITDA，顯示一旦成長恢復，這項業務將展現顯著的營運槓桿。

For OSB on page 9, prices once again the dominant element. In 2025, OSB prices were their highest in the first quarter, fell significantly in the second and have been mired net EBITDA breakeven for the past several months. As a result, prices are 28% lower than the first quarter of last year, resulting in $66 million less revenue and EBITDA.

第 9 頁的 OSB 方面，價格再次是主導因素。2025 年 OSB 價格在第一季達到全年高點，第二季大幅下滑，且過去數月一直徘徊在 EBITDA 損益兩平附近。因此，價格較去年第一季低 28%，導致營收與 EBITDA 各減少 6,600 萬美元。

Lower OSB volumes for both commodity and Structural Solutions reduced sales and EBITDA by a further $30 million and $10 million, respectively. Now, the operations team did an outstanding job of controlling what they can, operating efficiently, minimizing costs and prioritizing safety. As a result, mill overhead and SG&A contributed $5 million in year-over-year savings and the $3 million negative shown in the Siding waterfall from lower OSB transfers is offset here with income.

OSB 的商品級與 Structural Solutions 出貨量較低，使銷售額與 EBITDA 分別再減少 3,000 萬美元與 1,000 萬美元。營運團隊在可控範圍內表現出色：高效率運轉、將成本降到最低並優先確保安全。因此，工廠間接費用與 SG&A 帶來年對年 500 萬美元的節省；此外，Siding 瀑布圖中因 OSB 內部移轉量下降所呈現的 300 萬美元負面影響，在此處以收入的形式被抵銷。

All of this results in a $12 million EBITDA loss, better than our guidance amidst a very challenging demand and price environment. Cash flow on page 10 shows net operating cash outflow of $38 million compared to an inflow of $64 million last year, reflecting the $80 million reduction in total EBITDA and a somewhat larger-than-usual buildup of log inventory. Cash ended the quarter at $164 million, and we have $900 million in liquidity, including our undrawn revolver.

綜合以上，EBITDA 虧損 1,200 萬美元；在需求與價格環境極具挑戰的情況下，表現優於我們的指引。第 10 頁的現金流顯示，營運現金淨流出 3,800 萬美元，去年同期則為淨流入 6,400 萬美元，反映總 EBITDA 減少 8,000 萬美元，以及原木庫存的增加幅度略高於往常。季末現金為 1.64 億美元；我們的流動性為 9 億美元，其中包含尚未動用的循環信貸額度（revolver）。

Now before I conclude with our updated guidance, let me address the impact of crude oil prices on LP's raw material and freight costs, as shown on page 11. Starting with freight. Roughly speaking, we estimate that each $10 per barrel increase in crude oil corresponds to a $0.03 per mile increase in LP's variable freight costs on a blended basis, assuming current rail trip mix and refinery margins. LP experienced total freight usage of the order of 30 million miles in 2025.

在我以更新後的指引作結之前，先說明原油價格對 LP 原物料與運輸成本的影響，如第 11 頁所示。先從運輸談起。概略而言，我們估計在目前鐵路運輸行程組合與煉油利差假設下，原油每桶上漲 10 美元，LP 的變動運輸成本（以加權平均計）每英里約增加 0.03 美元。LP 在 2025 年的總運輸里程約為 3,000 萬英里。

So the full year freight cost impact of each $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices, all else equal, would be an annual impact of about $1 million. In OSB, freight is generally passed through while Siding is priced on a delivered basis, so that the EBITDA impact to LP would be mitigated by that dynamic.

因此，在其他條件不變下，原油每桶上漲 10 美元對全年運輸成本的影響約為每年 100 萬美元。在 OSB 業務中，運費通常會轉嫁；而 Siding 則以到岸交付（delivered）方式定價，因此對 LP 的 EBITDA 影響會因這種定價動態而被部分緩解。

I should also add that LP Siding is lighter and more durable than some competing alternatives, which allows us to ship by rail and transport much more volume on a truck than these competitors can. For raw materials, excluding logs, many of our inputs have crude oil as feedstock including resins, primate and paint. And of course, the delivered cost of these materials include some freight.

我也要補充，LP Siding 相較部分競品替代方案更輕且更耐用，使我們能以鐵路運輸，並且在卡車上運送的量也遠高於這些競爭對手。至於原物料（不含原木），我們許多投入品以原油為上游原料，包括樹脂、底漆（primer）與塗料；當然，這些材料的到岸成本也包含部分運費。

For raw materials across LP's North American business, we estimate that the total annual cost impact of each $10 per barrel increase in crude oil is of the order of $1.5 million to $2 million per quarter or $6 million to $8 million per year, all else equal. And this would be split roughly 75/25 between Siding and OSB given Sidings more raw material-intensive recipe.

就 LP 北美業務的原物料而言，我們估計在其他條件不變下，原油每桶上漲 10 美元對總年度成本的影響約為每季 150 萬至 200 萬美元，或每年 600 萬至 800 萬美元。由於 Siding 的配方更偏原物料密集，該影響約有 75/25 會分攤在 Siding 與 OSB 之間。

LP can experience a slight cost impact for logs when higher diesel prices impact harvesting and delivery costs, but compared to the freight and raw material costs, the log cost impact is small enough to be immaterial for modeling purposes.

當柴油價格上升推高採伐與運送成本時，LP 的原木成本可能會受到些微影響；但相較於運輸與其他原物料成本，原木成本的影響小到在建模上可視為不具重大性。

Now bear in mind that these are estimates of annual impact. Many of our raw material supply contracts have trailing algorithm at adjusted prices with varying update cycles, so the specific timing of these various impacts is more variable. We saw minimal impact in the first quarter. But if prices stay elevated, we will trend towards these annual run rate over the next two quarters or so.

請記住，這些都是年度影響的估算。我們許多原物料供應合約採用落後期（trailing）的演算法調價機制，且更新週期不一，因此各項影響的具體發生時點會更具變動性。我們在第一季看到的影響很小；但若價格維持在高檔，我們將在接下來約兩個季度逐步趨近上述年度運行率（run rate）。

Our raw material cost estimates are incorporated in our updated guidance, as shown on slide 12, unlike our approach to OSB guidance, we will explicitly avoid any attempt to predict future crude oil prices. Frankly, we're less concerned about the cost impact of higher crude oil prices than we are about the broader macroeconomic and demand impacts and the general volatility driving them.

我們的原物料成本估算已納入更新後的指引（見第 12 頁）。不同於我們對 OSB 指引的做法，我們將明確避免嘗試預測未來原油價格。坦白說，相較於原油上漲帶來的成本影響，我們更關注更廣泛的總體經濟與需求面影響，以及驅動這些影響的一般性波動。

You will recall that our full year guidance was predicated on housing starts being flat year-over-year. Mathematically flat starts would require a rebound in the second half. Now we made no attempt to predict the timing or trajectory of that rebound but expected that improving consumer confidence, moderating interest rates and seasonal increases in OSB pricing demand would be the bell weathers that would signal its approach. And as you are all aware, especially following the conflict in Iran, not only are those market indicators not improving, but they continue to erode.

各位會記得，我們的全年指引是以住宅開工（housing starts）年對年持平為前提。從數學上來看，要達到持平，意味著下半年必須反彈。我們並未嘗試預測反彈的時點或路徑，但預期消費者信心改善、利率趨緩，以及 OSB 價格需求的季節性上升，將是提示反彈接近的領先指標（bellwethers）。而各位也都知道，特別是在伊朗衝突之後，這些市場指標不僅沒有改善，反而持續惡化。

Now while our order files in Siding give us a good bit of visibility into the second quarter, high input costs fall in consumer confidence and increasing interest rates are magnifying uncertainty about demand in the back half of the year. As a result, we feel it's prudent to temper our expectations for the second half.

目前 Siding 的訂單檔讓我們對第二季有相當程度的能見度；但投入成本高企、消費者信心下滑與利率上升，正在放大對下半年需求的不確定性。因此，我們認為審慎起見，應下修對下半年的期待。

Current lower levels of market activity, we anticipate signing volume declines year-over-year in the second quarter of about 10%, with sequential improvements through year-end. Within this, ExpertFinish is expected to continue to outperform prime products as we gain share relative to competing prefinished alternatives, we therefore expect full year export finished volume growth in the mid-single digits range.

在目前較低的市場活動水準下，我們預期第二季 Siding 出貨量年對年下滑約 10%，並在年底前逐季改善。在此之中，隨著我們相對於競爭的預塗裝（prefinished）替代品持續取得市占，ExpertFinish 預期將持續優於 Prime 產品；因此，我們預期全年 ExpertFinish 出貨量成長落在中個位數百分比區間。

List prices should remain very steady, of course, but the very strong price/mix effect of the first quarter is expected to moderate as shed mix increases now that the channel inventory of shed products has normalized.

牌價當然應會維持非常穩定，但第一季非常強勁的價格/組合效應預期將趨於溫和，因為隨著通路端 shed 產品庫存已正常化，shed 產品的組合占比正在提高。

As a result of these volume and price dynamics, we currently expect Siding revenue in the second quarter between $435 million and $445 million and EBITDA between $115 million and $120 million. For the full year, Siding revenue and EBITDA are now expected to be between $1.64 billion and $1.66 billion with EBITDA between $410 million and $425 million.

基於上述出貨量與價格動態，我們目前預期第二季 Siding 營收介於 4.35 億至 4.45 億美元，EBITDA 介於 1.15 億至 1.20 億美元。就全年而言，Siding 營收與 EBITDA 現預期分別介於 16.4 億至 16.6 億美元，以及 4.10 億至 4.25 億美元。

For OSB, we're applying our normal methodology, assuming prices remain flat for last Friday's printed level. Unfortunately, Friday's print included a significant drop in the Southeast and Southwest regions, bringing OSB prices back under EBITDA breakeven levels. As a result, we now expect OSB EBITDA in the second quarter to be a loss of about $10 million.

OSB 方面，我們採用一貫的方法，假設價格維持在上週五公布（printed）的水準不變。不幸的是，週五的報價在美國東南與西南地區出現顯著下跌，使 OSB 價格回落至 EBITDA 損益兩平以下。因此，我們目前預期第二季 OSB EBITDA 約虧損 1,000 萬美元。

Now we don't plan to really plug doggedly ahead should these prices persist in an oversupplied market. But again, for modeling purposes, extrapolating current prices forward, the third and fourth quarters will deliver similar results as reflected in the revised full year guidance.

當然，若在供給過剩的市場中這些價格持續不振，我們不打算仍一味地硬撐前行。但同樣地，為了建模之用，若將目前價格向前外推，第三與第四季將呈現類似結果，如修訂後的全年指引所反映。

And finally, while our modeling approach has generally been to assume that LP South America and unallocated corporate expenses net to zero, the economic situation in Chile is similarly depressed and uncertain at the moment the softer results in South America are reflected in the total adjusted EBITDA guidance.

最後，雖然我們的建模方法一般是假設 LP 南美業務與未分攤的公司費用相互抵銷、淨額為零，但智利目前的經濟情勢同樣低迷且充滿不確定性，因此南美較疲弱的表現已反映在整體調整後 EBITDA 指引之中。

So in conclusion, the housing market and general consumer sentiment aren't showing the hope for signs of recovery yet, and this is most acutely felt in OSB demand and prices. But we remain confident in the SmartSide value proposition and in the long runability of our Siding business to gain share in all the segments we serve.

總結來說，房市與整體消費者信心尚未顯示出復甦的希望跡象，而這在 OSB 需求與價格上感受最為明顯。但我們仍對 SmartSide 的價值主張充滿信心，也相信從長期來看，我們的 Siding 業務具備在所服務的各個細分市場持續提升市占的能力。

And with that, we'll be happy to take a round of questions.

接下來，我們很樂意開始進行提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

George Staphos，美國銀行證券。

I wanted to ask a point of clarification if maybe it's a two-parter for my first question. Alan, I just want to make sure your guidance does not include any assumption on oil pricing per se, correct? So if so, can you tell us what the change in oil was relative to your fourth quarter so that we could somewhat calibrate to your adjustment in guidance relative to the cost?

我想先釐清一點，可能是我第一個問題的兩個部分。Alan，我只是想確認一下，你們的指引本身並未納入任何對油價的假設，對嗎？如果是這樣，你能否告訴我們油價相較於你們第四季的變動幅度，好讓我們能在某種程度上把你們相對於成本的指引調整做校準？

And the second part of that question is, is there a way to give us (inaudible) a change in oil, how much hits percentage-wise on cost of manufacturing in Siding, and how much hits on the freight side?

第二部分是，有沒有辦法提供我們（聽不清楚）油價變動中，有多少會以百分比的方式反映在 Siding 的製造成本上，又有多少會反映在運輸（freight）端？

Well, Alan is most of the heavy lifting on this. I'm going to let Aaron attempt to answer that question with the level of detail that we're willing to share.

嗯，這部分主要是 Alan 做了大量工作。我先讓 Aaron 來嘗試回答，在我們願意分享的細節範圍內回覆這個問題。

Of course, the question --

當然，這個問題——

So in reverse order, the cost of manufacturing through the raw materials is a much larger impact than freight. The full annualized impact of freight is relatively small, as Alan detailed, and we have more miles of transport for OSB just given the volume. So you can you can basically anticipate most of the costs hitting on the raw material side and in the manufacturing side. Within that, about 75% of the impact to cost of manufacturing will land in Siding just because of the more raw material intensive recipes of Siding relative to OSB.

我先倒過來回答：透過原物料所反映在製造成本上的影響，遠大於運輸成本。運輸的全年化影響相對較小，如同 Alan 所說；而且就 OSB 而言，因為量更大，我們的運輸里程也更多。所以你基本上可以預期，大部分成本會落在原物料端與製造端。在這之中，大約 75% 的製造成本影響會落在 Siding，主要是因為相較於 OSB，Siding 的配方更偏原物料密集。

And the last thing I'll say is our guidance makes our best attempt to reflect our current understanding of what the actual annualized impact will be, meaning that we have baked in what we have seen near term in terms of those material inputs and also our understanding of the various dynamics of the contracts themselves, the supply contracts that is with regard to their pricing algorithms and methodologies, and that's about as specific as we're going to get on that rather than diving too deep into nuts and bolts of those individual contracts.

最後我想補充的是，我們的指引是盡最大努力反映我們目前對實際全年化影響的理解；也就是說，我們已把近期在材料投入方面所看到的情況納入，同時也納入我們對各項合約本身（也就是供應合約）不同動態的理解，包括其定價演算法與方法論。我們大概就具體到這個程度，不會再深入到各個單一合約的細部條款。

So short answer, yes. The guidance for margin does reflect of what we're seeing in the market, and what we anticipate seeing in the back half of the year. And if prices go significantly higher or lower, you've got the sensitivities to give it some Kentucky windage.

所以簡短回答：是的。毛利率指引確實反映了我們在市場上看到的情況，以及我們預期在下半年會看到的狀況。如果價格大幅上升或下降，你們可以用敏感度來做一些大致的估算（Kentucky windage）。

Okay. The second question is on the 100 million square feet of Siding across the 15 of the top 25 builders. Is that the '26 actual volume that you expect, or is that a run rate? And what was the base in '25, if you could share that?

好的。第二個問題是關於在前 25 大建商中的 15 家，Siding 達到 1 億平方英尺。這是你們預期 2026 年的實際量，還是一個運行率（run rate）？另外，如果可以分享的話，2025 年的基期是多少？

Yes, I'll touch on that, George. The 100 million feet that we specified is, in fact, where we think we'll land in '26. Obviously, with the wins that we've communicated in recent calls, the prior year volumes were lower. What I would say about the programs, we're not going to give specific names, but each one of these meets a material threshold for us and add several thousand homes to our portfolio.

好的，George，我來回應。我們所提到的 1 億英尺，確實是我們認為 2026 年會落在的水準。當然，隨著我們在近期電話會議中所提到的那些得標（wins），前一年的量是比較低的。至於這些專案，我們不會提供具體名稱，但每一個對我們而言都達到一定的重要門檻，並且會為我們的組合新增數千戶住宅。

And in both cases, these programs that we talked about really provide us access to new markets where we're underpenetrated, specifically in the Southeast and Southwest markets. And because of that, it's allowing builders and contractors to really experience the benefits of using SmartSide and in many cases, for the first time with respect to installers.

而且在這兩種情況下，我們談到的這些專案確實讓我們得以進入我們滲透率較低的新市場，特別是在美國東南部與西南部市場。也因此，讓建商與承包商能真正體驗使用 SmartSide 的好處；在許多案例中，對安裝工班而言也是第一次接觸。

Jason, I get that, is there any way to size is that one-third increase, a 25% increase, a 2% increase. Any granular would be helpful?

Jason，我理解你的意思，但有沒有辦法量化一下？這是三分之一的成長、25% 的成長，還是 2% 的成長？任何更細的資訊都會有幫助。

Yes, I would say it's above 10%.

有的，我會說超過 10%。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

One quick one, I believe the gap between vinyl and engineered was has narrowed. Vinyl seeing increases due to oil. I think there's been a price increase announced for May, 3% to 8% of most products. So where does the price spread currently stand between vinyl and engineered wood? And how does that compare to, let's say, three or six months ago?

我有個簡短的問題。我相信乙烯基（vinyl）與工程木（engineered）的價差已經縮小。乙烯基因油價而上漲，我想也已宣布 5 月要調價，多數產品上調 3% 到 8%。那麼目前乙烯基與工程木之間的價差大概是多少？相較於三個月或六個月前又如何？

And have you seen any switching to engineer wood or let's say, even not switching itself where indications of interest to switch to engineered wood as a result of this narrowing spread.

另外，你們是否看到有轉換到工程木的情況？或者即便尚未真正轉換，但因為價差縮小而出現對轉用工程木的興趣跡象？

Mike, I'll touch on that. I mean, as you noted, we're hearing from our customers that there are some manufacturers going up on the vinyl side. That just makes SmartSide more attractive with regard to that specific comparison. So that's something we're keeping a close eye on. But I do think most of that has taken place over the course of the last 30 days, essentially.

Mike，我來回應。如你所說，我們從客戶那邊聽到，乙烯基端確實有一些製造商在調漲。就這個特定比較而言，這會讓 SmartSide 更具吸引力。因此我們正密切關注。不過我認為這些變化大多是在過去 30 天內發生的。

So we haven't felt anything material in our order file as it relates to some of the changes in pricing dynamics in the market.

因此，就市場定價動態的一些變化而言，我們在訂單檔（order file）上尚未感受到任何實質性的影響。

Got you. But in terms of your customers themselves, not in the oral just yet, but indications that there could be some increasing orders or better demand should this spread continue to narrow?

了解。但就你們的客戶本身而言，雖然訂單上可能還沒有反映，但是否有跡象顯示，如果這個價差持續縮小，訂單可能會增加或需求會更好？

Yes. I think anytime that spread narrows, it presents an opportunity, and we're positioned well to capitalize on that. So we like the narrowing of that spread, and we'll take advantage of it where we can.

是的。我認為只要價差縮小，就會帶來機會，而我們也具備良好條件去把握。因此我們樂見價差縮小，並會在可行之處加以利用。

And just one quick follow-up. Where does that spread currently stand relative to three months ago, six months ago?

再追問一個：目前的價差相較於三個月前、六個月前大概如何？

I mean, it's tough to really put your finger on that. I mean what we're hearing is price increases in the neighborhood of 6% to 12% depending on who it is. So I mean, the spread has narrowed by that much.

老實說很難精準指出。我們聽到的是，調價幅度大約在 6% 到 12% 的區間，視廠商而定。所以價差大概就是縮小了這樣的幅度。

Got you. One last one, I'll turn it over. Just any update just on the potential conversion at Milwaukee?

了解。最後一個問題我就交棒了。關於密爾瓦基（Milwaukee）可能的轉換，有沒有任何更新？

Yes. I can touch on that, Mike. As of today, we have roughly speaking, about 400 million to 500 million feet of capacity to support our growth on the prime side. We've explained our options for expansion on prior calls, so I won't get into that. But what I will say is that the engineering work continues on a couple of different paths, including Maniwaki. So nothing new there to share, but I would expect we'll be in a position to share some more information in the coming quarters.

有的，Mike，我可以說明。截至今天，概略而言，我們在主要（prime）端約有 4 億到 5 億英尺的產能可支援成長。我們在先前的電話會議已說明過擴產選項，所以我不再重複。不過我要說的是，工程作業仍在沿著幾條不同路徑持續推進，包括 Maniwaki。因此目前沒有新的內容可分享，但我預期在接下來幾個季度，我們會有更多資訊可以對外說明。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

(inaudible) on for Matt today. So first off, I guess, just staying on capacity. So I guess, even if volumes come in softer than expected, our understanding is that the Green Bay line would still support margin expansion given its higher efficiency. Do you guys have a sense of the magnitude of the potential margin benefit if this were the case? And then how is that contemplated in the guidance?

今天我代替 Matt（聽不清楚）提問。首先，還是關於產能。即使出貨量比預期更疲弱，我們的理解是 Green Bay 產線因效率更高，仍可支撐毛利率擴張。你們是否能估計在這種情況下，潛在的毛利率效益幅度？另外，這在指引中是如何納入考量的？

Yes. Thanks, (inaudible). Good question. It is contemplated, but the margin benefit really accrues to us more when the facility is fully ramped up early in its ramp up, which is where we are now. That effect is less pronounced, both by virtue of lower efficiency in the early days of operations and a smaller amount of volume as it goes through.

是的，謝謝，（聽不清楚）。好問題。這確實已納入考量，但毛利率效益在該設施完全爬坡到位時才會更明顯；而在爬坡初期——也就是我們現在所處的階段——這個效果就沒那麼顯著，原因一方面是營運初期效率較低，另一方面是通過的量也較少。

So I think very roughly speaking, if you think about the margin improvement for ExpertFinishes being on a similar trajectory than it was last year. I think that puts you in the right ballpark. And then as we get more volume through that facility, we'll really be able to see the effect of that efficiency and get more specific about its actual effect in subsequent quarters.

所以非常粗略地說，如果你把 ExpertFinishes 的毛利率改善想成與去年類似的軌跡，我認為就會落在差不多的範圍。接著，隨著更多量通過該設施，我們就能更清楚看到效率帶來的影響，並在後續季度更具體說明其實際效果。

We'll certainly bleed about it as and when it happens.

我們當然會在發生時、以及適當時點對外說明。

Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And then, I guess, second, so back to the new construction opportunity, when we think about the Siding volume of the 15 of the top 25 builders, where can this high single-digit number get to as we think of maybe a more normalized starts environment? And then just so I think more broadly, longer term for your new construction strategy, how are you growing in that channel?

好的，謝謝。這很有幫助。第二個問題回到新建市場機會：當我們思考前 25 大建商中的 15 家所帶來的 Siding 出貨量時，在更正常化的開工環境下，這個高個位數（high single-digit）的數字可以提升到什麼程度？另外更廣泛、從長期來看，你們的新建通路策略是如何在這個通路成長的？

Is it more thinking about growing wallet share? Is it building up the number of builder partnerships?

你們是更著重於提高單一客戶的採購占比（wallet share）？還是增加建商合作夥伴的數量？

Yes, I appreciate the question. What I would say is in the new construction segment, specifically with the top 25 builders, we still have a relatively small share position in the high single digits as we noted earlier. So there's a ton of opportunity there.

是的，感謝這個問題。我想說的是，在新建案這個區塊，特別是針對前 25 大建商，如同我們先前提到的，我們目前的市占仍相對偏小，大約在高個位數。因此那裡有非常多的機會。

At the end of the day, we're trying to be very disciplined or strategic in terms of where we leverage these enterprise programs. It's really about getting access to markets where we're historically underpenetrated building a stocking dealer base around those programs and then obviously, building our business around some of those wins.

歸根結底，我們在運用這些企業級方案（enterprise programs）時，會非常自律且具策略性，重點在於進入我們過去滲透率較低的市場，並圍繞這些方案建立備貨型經銷商（stocking dealer）基礎，然後當然也會以其中一些得標/勝出案為基礎來擴大我們的業務。

So it's something we're excited about and really leveraging as we go forward. In terms of the growth opportunity, I mean, at high single digits, the opportunity is very significant for us, and that will be a focus going forward.

所以這是我們感到興奮、並且會在未來持續加以運用的事情。就成長機會而言，我的意思是，以高個位數的市占來看，對我們而言機會非常顯著，而這也將是未來的重點。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO Capital Markets。

Maybe just coming back to the full year Siding guidance. It just backing into the numbers, it feels like the guide is $32 million below kind of what you all had talked about as we look at the midpoint of guidance, but Q1 was kind of a solid beat about $18 million higher, but it almost feels like a $50 million swing for the remaining three quarters. Can you sort of highlight maybe two or three key points that would help us sort of think about the key pieces here?

我想再回到全年 Siding（外牆板）指引。把數字倒推回去看，感覺以指引中位數來看，比你們先前談到的水準低了 3,200 萬美元左右；但第一季算是明顯超預期，大約高出 1,800 萬美元。可是在接下來三個季度，幾乎像是出現了 5,000 萬美元的擺動。你們能否點出兩到三個關鍵點，幫助我們理解這裡的主要構成？

Yes, sure, Ketan, the drop in guidance -- were you referring to EBIT, the line cut out a bit. Were you referring to the EBITDA impact?

好的，當然可以，Ketan。指引下修——你指的是 EBIT 嗎？剛剛線路有點斷斷續續。你指的是對 EBITDA 的影響嗎？

I was sorry. Yes, I was.

抱歉，是的，我指的是。

Yes. So yes, you're right. It's about a $50 million drop from the midpoint. High level, you've got to assume that the majority of this reduction is volume related, let's call it, $70 million worth of volume, which comes through at a 50% variable margin. So that accounts for about $35 million.

好的。是的，你說得對。以中位數來看，大約下修 5,000 萬美元。從高層次來看，你必須假設這次下修的大部分與銷量有關，我們先稱之為約 7,000 萬美元的量，並以 50% 的變動毛利率（variable margin）流入，因此大約對應 3,500 萬美元。

And to sort of triangulate into one of the other questions, there's then about $15 million roughly, $15 million to $20 million of impact from oil in the back half of the year, concentrated more in the second half than it is in the second quarter. So that $50 million is roughly $35 million from volume, $50 million from oil-based costs.

再把它和另一個問題做交叉驗證，另外大約還有 1,500 萬美元左右、約 1,500 萬到 2,000 萬美元的影響，來自下半年油價相關成本，且影響更集中在下半年，而不是第二季。所以這 5,000 萬美元大致是：3,500 萬美元來自銷量，另外 1,500 萬美元來自油基成本（oil-based costs）。

I see perfect. This is very helpful. And then, Jason, you talked about expanding the dealer network. You -- there's a recent partnership as well with (inaudible) here out on the East Coast. Can you talk about sort of how you are thinking about your existing distribution partnerships?

了解，太好了。這非常有幫助。然後 Jason，你提到擴大經銷商網路。你們最近也在東岸與（聽不清）有合作夥伴關係。你能談談你們如何看待既有的通路合作夥伴嗎？

Obviously, I'm not asking you to name them, but just in terms of how you are thinking about them of these relationships? And where do you think you've got opportunity to sort of penetrate more?

我當然不是要你點名，但就你們如何看待這些合作關係而言，你們認為在哪些地方還有機會進一步提高滲透率？

Appreciate the question, Ketan. So I think about our distribution network, I think I've mentioned on prior calls that we have really good access to market through our traditional two-step distributors. And those folks typically in most markets, we have two distributors and some, there might be some overlap where we have three.

感謝提問，Ketan。我看待我們的通路網路時，我想我在之前的電話會議提過，我們透過傳統的兩階分銷商（two-step distributors）其實能很好地觸達市場。而這些夥伴在多數市場中，我們通常有兩家分銷商；有些市場可能會有重疊，會有三家。

So those two steppers provide supply to many of the pro dealers and one steppers. So that is where our access to market, I would say, could be improved in some regions and really is the focal point of our enterprise program strategy to really build out that pull-through demand in those markets where we're underpenetrated.

這些兩階分銷商會供貨給許多專業經銷商（pro dealers）以及一階分銷商（one steppers）。因此我會說，我們在某些區域的市場觸達仍有改善空間，而這也正是我們企業級方案策略的核心：在我們滲透率較低的市場，真正把拉動式需求（pull-through demand）建立起來。

So we can build our stocking dealer network with those pro dealers, one steppers, et cetera, to grow our business with contractors and builders beyond those programs.

因此我們可以與這些專業經銷商、一階分銷商等一起建立備貨型經銷商網路，並在那些方案之外，進一步與承包商與建商擴大我們的業務。

(inaudible).

（聽不清）。

I wanted to think about the cross-selling to builders. Clearly, it seems like success winning share with builders. I'm curious if you could parse out how much of that is success cross-selling OSB and Siding, or is this pure guiding wins?

我想談談對建商的交叉銷售。很明顯，看起來你們在建商端贏得市占是成功的。我好奇的是，你們能否拆解一下：其中有多少是成功把 OSB 與 Siding 交叉銷售出去？還是這純粹是導板（guiding）方面的得標？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Steven. What I would say is it's both. I think at the end of the day, I do believe that the integration of our two businesses that occurred roughly a year ago here at LP is allowing us to be, I would say, more creative, more flexible, more responsive when it comes to addressing the needs of our customers. These programs aren't cookie cutter in nature.

是的，謝謝你的問題，Steven。我會說兩者都有。我認為歸根結底，大約一年前在 LP 內部完成的兩項業務整合，讓我們在回應客戶需求時能更有創意、更有彈性、也更即時。這些方案並不是制式化（cookie cutter）的。

They're really tailored in a way to meet the needs of each respective customers. So again, we're in the early stages, but we have, I believe, one of the most robust portfolios of products or solutions in the industry, and we're in a unique position to leverage that to drive value for all of those targets in the marketplace.

它們確實是以能滿足各個客戶的需求為前提來量身打造的。所以再次強調，我們仍在早期階段，但我相信我們擁有業界最強健的產品或解決方案組合之一，而我們也處在一個獨特的位置，可以運用這些能力，為市場上所有這些目標客群創造價值。

Okay. That's great. And then looking at Siding, seems like the implied second half margin a bit lower than the first half. Can you parse out how much of that is more builder series from these builder wins or higher ExpertFinish volume, which I know is a mix negative for margin, even though it's on an upward trajectory on itself. So maybe you could talk through the second half dynamics of Siding margin.

好的，很好。接著看 Siding，似乎隱含的下半年毛利率比上半年低一些。你能否拆解一下：其中有多少是因為這些建商得標帶來更多 builder series（建商系列）？或是 ExpertFinish 的量更高——我知道即使它本身在上升軌道，但在產品組合上對毛利率是負面影響。能否談談下半年 Siding 毛利率的動態？

Yes, Steven, I'd say both of those factors are relatively small compared to the overall volume decline and the raw material price increases that Alan mentioned earlier.

是的，Steven，我會說這兩個因素相對都不大，和整體銷量下滑以及 Alan 先前提到的原物料價格上漲相比，影響都比較小。

Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

Sean Steuart，TD Cowen。

A couple of questions. The $200 million earmarked for strategic growth CapEx was consistent quarter-over-quarter. Can you remind us how much of that is ExpertFinish growth? And how much, if any, would be earmarked for Maniwaki work as you are presuming you advance that project. Is any of that total earmarked for that project?

兩個問題。標記為策略性成長資本支出（strategic growth CapEx）的 2 億美元，與上一季相比維持一致。你能提醒我們其中有多少是用於 ExpertFinish 的成長？另外，若你們預期推進 Maniwaki 專案，有多少（如果有的話）會配置給 Maniwaki 的工作？這個總額中是否有任何部分是為該專案預留的？

Yes. There's close to $100 million in here for ExpertFinish expansion. Not all of it, the new mill, some of it New York continuation of completion the New York facility, New York upgrade. So about $100 million there. And there is $20 million to $30 million on the next major Siding mill. So call it, $130 million of Siding capacity expansion euro it is ExpertFinish.

是的。這裡面接近 1 億美元是用於 ExpertFinish 擴產。不全都是新廠，其中一部分是紐約廠的延續性投入，用於完成紐約設施、以及紐約升級。所以那邊大約 1 億美元。另外，下一座主要的 Siding 工廠也有 2,000 萬到 3,000 萬美元。也就是說，大約 1.3 億美元屬於 Siding 產能擴張，其中包含 ExpertFinish。

Okay. And then, Alan, you touched on the log inventory build in Q1, which, I guess, is Canada and the Northern US, that seems to be a bit larger than normal. Can you go into some of the factors there? And how we should think about the unwind through the remainder of the year?

了解。然後 Alan，你提到第一季原木庫存增加，我猜是在加拿大與美國北部，這看起來比正常水準大一些。你能談談背後的一些因素嗎？以及我們應該如何看待今年剩餘期間的回轉/消化？

Yes. The unwind will be just the normal course of consumption. We did do some forward logging as oil prices rose. So very pleased with the efforts of the team there to get ahead of some of the freight costs because obviously, once we get the spring breakup, there's very little we can do. So we got a little bit ahead of that.

是的。回轉會就是正常的消耗節奏。我們確實在油價上升時做了一些提前伐採（forward logging）。所以我們對團隊的努力非常滿意，能夠提前因應部分運輸成本，因為很明顯，一旦進入春季解凍期（spring breakup），我們能做的就非常有限。所以我們在那之前稍微提前了一點。

And the majority of the remainder is very much in anticipation of citing maintenance projects that will that mean to mean that we need to get a little bit ahead on finished goods as well. So it's actually a good piece of cost mitigation that really triggered it.

而其餘的大部分則是因應 Siding 的維護專案，我們預期那會意味著我們也需要在成品端稍微提前準備一些庫存。所以這其實是一個很好的成本緩解（cost mitigation）措施，而這正是觸發庫存增加的原因。

(inaudible).

（聽不清）。

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

Kurt Yinger，D.A. Davidson。

Just wanted to sort of unpack the full year guiding sales outlook? I mean, my math kind of high single-digit decline in volume. I think maybe a couple of points of that would have been the destock in Q1. And I guess, how does kind of that underlying mid-single-digit volume decline compared to what you're expecting from the overall market, and I guess, what should we infer from that in terms of market share expectations?

我想把全年銷售指引展望拆解一下？按我的計算，銷量大概是高個位數下滑。我想其中可能有幾個百分點是第一季去庫存（destock）的影響。那麼，這種底層的中個位數銷量下滑，和你們對整體市場的預期相比如何？以及我們應該從中推論出什麼樣的市占預期？

It's an interesting one. You've got -- the really high level, like we think we're going to perform relatively well as in growth in both off-site and ExpertFinish. This is fundamentally gaining market share. And then the rest of the market -- the rest of the product lines, everything else that's not off-site and ExpertFinish is going to be down high teens. And that's where you see the greatest impact of the, let's call it, the market reaction, our reaction to the underlying weak market.

這是個有意思的問題。你看——非常高層次地說，我們認為在 off-site（場外/預製）與 ExpertFinish 兩個方面，我們會表現得相對不錯、會有成長。這基本上就是在取得市占。然後市場的其餘部分——也就是除了 off-site 與 ExpertFinish 之外的其他產品線——都會下滑到高十幾個百分點。你看到的最大影響就在這裡，我們姑且稱之為市場反應，以及我們對疲弱市場基本面的反應。

So assume offsite and ExpertFinish are going to have modest growth and high teens decline in everything else. That's kind of the shape that we see a merger.

所以假設 off-site 與 ExpertFinish 會有溫和成長，而其他所有項目會下滑高十幾個百分點。這就是我們看到的整體輪廓。

Got it. And I guess on ExpertFinish, the flattish volumes in Q1 and the mid-single-digit outlook for the year, is that a function at all of just kind of the capacity constraints that you've seen? Or how do we unpack that deceleration versus what we saw last year?

了解。那在 ExpertFinish 方面，第一季銷量持平，以及全年中個位數的展望，這是否在某種程度上是因為你們看到的產能限制？或者我們該如何拆解這種相較去年所見的成長放緩？

Yes, Curt, I'll take that one. So we are still dealing with a little bit of the ExpertFinish allocation hangover, if you want to call it that. we came off allocation, what was it in February-ish, something like that. And now that we have visibility into channel inventories, we have noticed that they're a little bit higher than where we would like them to be, which is an uncommon when he come off of a managed order file. So we do believe the first half is going to be maybe a little bit weaker than the second half just due to our channel partners bleeding down inventories to more normal levels.

是的，Curt，我來回答這題。所以我們仍在處理一點 ExpertFinish 配額分配的「後遺症」，如果你要這麼說的話。我們是在大概 2 月左右結束配額分配的，差不多那個時間。現在我們對通路庫存有了能見度後，注意到庫存水位比我們希望的略高一些；這在從受控訂單檔（managed order file）退出後並不罕見。因此，我們確實認為上半年可能會比下半年稍弱一些，主要是因為通路夥伴需要把庫存消化回較正常的水位。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

Mark Weintraub，Seaport Research Partners。

Just wanted to follow up on the last question. And Alan, you mentioned it's for primed and for some of the other businesses, some growth, but down in the mid- to high teens and some of the other businesses, is that because customers in part are moving from the businesses where you see yourself being down high- to mid-teens into the areas where you are flat or growing, or are there two different dynamics going on here.

我想跟進上一個問題。Alan，你提到 Prime 以及其他一些業務有成長，但在中到高十幾%的下滑區間的那些其他業務，是不是部分原因在於客戶正從你們預期會下滑高到中十幾%的業務，轉移到你們持平或成長的領域？還是說這裡其實有兩種不同的動態在發生？

Mark, I'll take that one. I think the biggest dynamic we're dealing right now -- well, we're mostly through it, was just related to the shed segment, and how much inventory carried over into the new year. I would say we're 85% of the way through that. There's still a little bit of excess inventory there. We have really good visibility into our order file into Q2.

Mark，我來回答。我認為我們目前面對的最大動態——其實大多已經走過了——主要與 Shed（棚屋）細分市場有關，以及有多少庫存在新年度結轉過來。我會說我們大概已經處理了 85%。那裡仍有一點過剩庫存。我們對進入第二季（Q2）的訂單檔有非常好的能見度。

But beyond that, there's just a tremendous amount of uncertainty looking out into the back half of the year. So we feel good about what we're doing in the new construction segment. I feel like we can outpace housing starts in that segment. And then in repair/remodel. We touched on ExpertFinish being up mid-single digits, and that will be reflective of, we think, a better performance than the R&R segment as a whole.

但除此之外，展望今年下半年仍有非常大的不確定性。所以我們對新建（new construction）細分市場正在做的事情感到有信心。我覺得在那個細分市場，我們可以跑贏住宅開工（housing starts）。而在維修/翻新（repair/remodel）方面，我們提到 ExpertFinish 會有中個位數成長，我們認為這將反映出其表現會優於整體 R&R 細分市場。

Okay. So it sounds like it's really shed is where the relative performance is going to be, you think, soft this year versus your historical algorithms against overall market? SP-4 Growth. Is that fair?

好的。聽起來相對表現上，你們認為今年會比較偏弱、相較於你們歷史上對整體市場的演算法（algorithms）而言，主要是在 Shed 這一塊？SP-4 Growth。這樣理解公平嗎？

Yes, I agree with that. I mean we pay close attention to sell-through rates in that segment. So we get data from our distributors, and we're pleased to see that those sell-through rates have held up quite well. So it is really just an inventory dynamic that is playing out in '26.

是的，我同意。我們非常密切關注該細分市場的終端銷售（sell-through）速度。我們會從經銷商那裡取得數據，也很高興看到 sell-through 速度維持得相當不錯。所以這真的只是 2026 年正在發酵的一個庫存動態。

Okay. Great. And then one last real quick one kind of related to all this, too. The [Manawaukeee], can you remind us, is that particularly well positioned if the growth in prime continues to be prime continues to be a main focus or not necessarily?

好的，很好。最後再很快問一個也跟這些相關的問題。[Manawaukeee]，你能提醒我們一下嗎？如果 Prime 的成長持續、而且 Prime 仍然是主要重點的話，那個（資產/廠區）是否特別有利的位置？還是不一定？

Yes. Maniwaki is certainly an option for us. If we went that direction, it would be the largest OSB plant that we've converted to Siding, it would end up being our largest prime sitting facility. But again, we're still in the process of assessing all of our options and are pursuing parallel paths in some cases.

是的，Maniwaki 對我們來說當然是一個選項。如果我們走那條路，它會是我們轉換成 Siding 的最大 OSB 工廠，最後也會成為我們最大的 Prime Siding 設施。不過同樣地，我們仍在評估所有選項的過程中，在某些情況下也同時推進多條平行路徑。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

Susan Maklari，高盛。

My first question is on the Siding side of the business. Can you talk a bit about how you're thinking of price elasticity. And how within that growth that you're expecting in mid-single digits and ExpertFinish, is that reflecting -- how much of that is the underlying strength of the consumer relative to your share gains and some of those new products that you're introducing that also seem to be gaining momentum?

我的第一個問題是關於 Siding 業務。你們能談談你們如何看待價格彈性（price elasticity）嗎？另外，在你們預期的中個位數成長與 ExpertFinish 的成長之中，這反映了多少是消費者基本面相對強勁、相對於你們的市占提升，以及你們正在推出且似乎也在累積動能的新產品所帶來的貢獻？

Thanks for the question, Susan I'll talk a little bit about price elasticity. I mean, if you look back at our history, we typically go up have a price increase one time annually. There may be a few times in our history, COVID being one where we had a second price increase. But we really monitor both raw materials, along with the broader competitive dynamics in our space to determine where we need to position pricing. As it pertains to the current environment, I would say we're taking a wait-and-see approach, kind of no different than we did with our approach to tariffs last year.

謝謝你的問題，Susan。我先談一下價格彈性。若回顧我們的歷史，我們通常每年只調價一次。歷史上也有少數幾次，例如 COVID 期間，我們做了第二次調價。但我們確實會同時監控原物料，以及我們所處領域更廣泛的競爭動態，以決定我們需要如何定位 Siding 的價格。就目前環境而言，我會說我們採取觀望（wait-and-see）的做法，這跟我們去年面對關稅時的策略其實差不多。

We don't want to make a knee-jerk decision due to what could be short-term circumstances that we're dealing with right now just in terms of raw material pricing. But our focus is going to be on playing the long game and being as consistent and predictable as possible for our customers amidst all the factors impacting our pricing decisions for Siding. But we're pleased with what we've realized in terms of the annual price increase that Alan spoke to earlier, and right now, we're just holding steady.

我們不想因為目前原物料價格等短期情況而做出倉促（knee-jerk）的決定。我們的重點會放在長期策略（playing the long game），在所有影響 Siding 定價決策的因素之下，盡可能對客戶保持一致性與可預測性。不過，我們對 Alan 先前提到的年度調價所實現的成果感到滿意，而目前我們就是維持不變。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe shifting gears to OSB. Can you talk about your plans for production there? And do you still expect that the industry will see capacity come online this year, or has the housing backdrop perhaps changed those plans? And could we see the being shift in terms of OSB supply as we move through the balance of 2026.

好的，這很有幫助。接著把焦點轉到 OSB。你們能談談那邊的生產計畫嗎？你們是否仍預期今年產業會有新增產能上線？還是住宅市場背景可能已改變那些計畫？另外，隨著 2026 年剩餘時間推進，我們是否可能看到 OSB 供給面出現轉變？

Yes, Susan, I would say you're just as good as mine in terms of new capacity coming online. I mean, I can speak to, obviously, one of our competitors taking out a plant or plants coming offline kind of as we speak right now in Western Canada. As it relates to OSB here at LP, I would just say our strategy really hasn't changed. And as we noted in our opening comments, we're proud of the way our team is navigating the current OSB environment, just focused on operating with discipline and agility, and I think over time, we've proven our ability to manage or control costs and continue to improve OEE or efficiency in the business. So it's a cyclical business, but I'm confident that we'll be ready to take advantage of the next upward cycle whenever demand improves.

是的，Susan，我會說在新增產能上線這件事上，你跟我一樣都只能猜。我可以談的是，顯然我們的一家競爭對手在加拿大西部，正如我們現在所看到的，正在關停一座或多座工廠。至於 LP 這邊的 OSB，我只能說我們的策略其實沒有改變。正如我們在開場評論中提到的，我們為團隊在目前 OSB 環境中的應對方式感到自豪：專注於以紀律與敏捷性來營運。我認為長期來看，我們已證明自己有能力管理或控制成本，並持續提升 OEE（整體設備效率）或營運效率。這是一個循環性（cyclical）的業務，但我有信心，只要需求改善、下一個上行循環到來，我們就能準備好把握機會。

Adam Baumgarten, Vertical Research Partners.

Adam Baumgarten，Vertical Research Partners。

Can we get some color on how Siding sell-through trended throughout 1Q and into 2Q so far? Any major change in trend?

能否補充一些 Siding 終端銷售（sell-through）在第一季（1Q）以及目前進入第二季（2Q）的趨勢顏色？趨勢上有任何重大變化嗎？

Yes. So I'll touch on that, Adam. I appreciate the question. We get data from our distributors on sell-through rates. We talked a lot about the inventory build from Q4 to Q1, and that Q1 was going to look a little bit weaker just due to the amount of inventory that we felt was held up at the two-step level.

可以。我來回應，Adam，謝謝你的問題。我們會從經銷商取得 sell-through 速度的數據。我們談了很多第四季到第一季的庫存增加，以及第一季之所以看起來會比較弱，主要是因為我們認為在 two-step（兩級通路）層級有相當多庫存被卡住。

That ended up being largely true, and most of that inventory, as I mentioned earlier, has been depleted. Sell-through rates have more or less mirrored what we saw this time last year is down slightly as it relates to the underlying market conditions in the new residential construction segment. But no concerning trends at this point as it relates to sell-through rates, seeing the normal seasonal uptick in those rates, and hopefully, that will continue.

結果大致如我們所預期，而我先前提到的那批庫存大多已經消化掉了。Sell-through 速度大致與去年同期相仿；就新建住宅（new residential construction）細分市場的基本市場狀況而言，略有下滑。但就 sell-through 速度來看，目前沒有令人擔憂的趨勢；我們也看到正常的季節性回升，希望這個趨勢能持續。

Okay. Great. And then just when we were chatting at the builder show, I think there was some commentary around being pleasantly surprised about the interest about ExpertFinish on some of the builders. Did that play any role in the new partnerships that you guys mentioned?

好的，很好。然後我們在建商展（builder show）聊天時，我記得你們提到對一些建商對 ExpertFinish 的興趣感到驚喜。這是否在你們提到的新合作夥伴關係中扮演了任何角色？

Yes. Adam, what I would say is it's playing more of a role than ever, but it's still a relatively small percentage of the business that's ending up going -- are bundled in these programs. But it is -- it's a macro trend there that's in our favor. Labor is tight, and it's expensive. Builders are focused on job site cycle times, and I think all of that plays into our favor as it relates to ExpertFinish and the new ExpertFinish naturals two-tone line.

是的。Adam，我會說它扮演的角色比以往更大，但最終納入這些方案、以套裝（bundled）方式進行的業務占比仍然相對不高。不過，這確實是一個對我們有利的宏觀趨勢。勞動力吃緊，而且成本高。建商關注工地週期時間（job site cycle times），我認為這些都對 ExpertFinish 以及新的 ExpertFinish Naturals 雙色（two-tone）產品線有利。

So we do believe that will be a trend that continues. And it's obviously why we're investing more in Green Bay (inaudible) and North Branch, Minnesota going forward.

所以我們確實相信這會是一個會持續的趨勢。而這也顯然是為什麼我們未來會在 Green Bay（聽不清）以及明尼蘇達州 North Branch 加大投資。

And I am showing no further questions from our phone lines. I'd now like to turn the conference back over to Aaron Howald for any closing remarks.

我這邊顯示電話線上沒有其他問題了。現在我想把會議交回給 Aaron Howald，請他做結語。

Okay. Thanks, everyone. With no further questions, we'll bringing the call to a close there. And as usual, be available for follow-ups. Stay safe, and we'll look forward to connecting again in the next quarter.

好的，謝謝各位。既然沒有其他問題，我們就結束今天的電話會議。一如往常，我們會提供後續追問的聯繫。請大家注意安全，我們期待在下個季度再與各位交流。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

感謝各位參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。各位現在可以掛線。祝大家有美好的一天。