Open Lending Corp (LPRO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to Open Lending's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) On the call today are Chuck Jehl, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Cecilia Camarillo, Chief Accounting Officer.

下午好，歡迎參加 Open Lending 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天參加電話會議的是財務長、營運長兼臨時執行長 Chuck Jehl；和首席會計官塞西莉亞·卡馬裡洛。

Earlier today, the company posted its second quarter 2024 earnings release and supplemental slides to its Investor Relations website. In the release, you will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures discussed on this call.

今天早些時候，該公司在其投資者關係網站上發布了 2024 年第二季財報和補充幻燈片。在新聞稿中，您將找到非公認會計原則財務指標與本次電話會議中討論的最具可比性的公認會計原則財務指標的調節表。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call may contain estimated and other forward-looking statements that represent the company's view as of today, August 8, 2024. Open Lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances. Please refer to today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC for more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied with such statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議可能包含代表本公司截至今天（2024 年 8 月 8 日）的觀點的估計和其他前瞻性陳述。Open Lending 不承擔更新這些聲明以反映未來事件或情況的義務。請參閱今天的收益報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解有關可能導致實際結果與此類聲明中明示或暗示的結果不同的因素的更多資​​訊。

And now, I will pass the call over to Mr. Chuck Jehl. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我會把電話轉給 Chuck Jehl 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Open Lending's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們 Open Lending 的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

I am pleased to report that in the second quarter of 2024, we were near or above the high end of our guidance range for certified loans, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA, excluding a negative change in estimate associated with our profit share. For the quarter, we certified nearly 29,000 loans, which represents approximately 3% sequential growth compared to Q1 2024, and we delivered total revenue of $26.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $9.9 million.

我很高興地報告，在 2024 年第二季度，我們的認證貸款、收入和調整後 EBITDA 的指導範圍接近或高於上限，不包括與我們的利潤份額相關的預估負變化。本季度，我們認證了近 29,000 筆貸款，與 2024 年第一季相比，季增約 3%，總營收為 2,670 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 990 萬美元。

As I mentioned, our results for the second quarter of 2024 were negatively impacted by a $6.7 million profit share change in estimate. It is important to note that this downward revision is primarily due to elevated delinquencies and defaults associated with vintages originated in 2021 and 2022, the time of peak vehicle values. Lower performance from these vintages represents an industry-wide headwind and is not unique to Open Lending or our lending customers.

正如我所提到的，我們 2024 年第二季的業績受到 670 萬美元利潤份額預估變動的負面影響。值得注意的是，這項向下修正主要是由於與 2021 年和 2022 年（車輛價值高峰期）年份相關的拖欠和違約增加所致。這些年份的較低表現代表了整個行業的逆風，這並不是開放式貸款或我們的貸款客戶所獨有的。

As it relates to our more recent vintages, we are encouraged by the early performance of these certified loans due to actions we have taken to tighten our underwriting standards. The initial data reflects a decrease in 60-plus day delinquency rates from a peak of over 2% during the middle of 2022 to a range of 1% to 1.5% currently. With three consecutive quarters of delinquency rate improvement within our portfolio, we are optimistic about a return to normalcy as it relates to delinquencies.

由於這與我們最近的年份有關，由於我們採取了收緊承保標準的行動，這些認證貸款的早期表現令我們感到鼓舞。初步數據顯示，60 多天的拖欠率已從 2022 年中期超過 2% 的峰值下降至目前的 1% 至 1.5%。隨著我們投資組合的拖欠率連續三個季度有所改善，我們對拖欠率恢復正常持樂觀態度。

As you may recall, the actions we took over the past 18 to 24 months principally include: increased insurance premiums to appropriately price for the risk we take; implemented a newly enhanced Lenders Protection Proprietary Scorecard, which has further improved our ability to predict probability of default and price risk, the new scorecard has now decisioned over 1.8 million applications; raised our minimum score cutoff to tighten our credit aperture; and initiated targeted price optimization by leveraging our new enhanced scorecard and historical performance data to increase prices on lower-performing segments of our business.

您可能還記得，我們​​在過去 18 至 24 個月內採取的行動主要包括： 增加保險費，以適當定價我們所承擔的風險；實施了新增強的貸款人保護專有記分卡，進一步提高了我們預測違約機率和價格風險的能力，新記分卡現已對超過 180 萬份申請做出決定；提高我們的最低分數截止點以收緊我們的信貸口徑；並利用我們新的增強型記分卡和歷史績效數據啟動有針對性的價格優化，以提高績效較低的業務部門的價格。

In this period of challenging macroeconomic conditions, we are committed to protecting the profitability of all stakeholders in our ecosystem by appropriately pricing for the risk and selectively saying no to loans that put unnecessary risk on Open Lending, our insurance carrier partners, or our lenders. As we continue to navigate past these lower-performing advantages, we anticipate that Open Lending's profit share revenue performance should be less volatile.

在這個宏觀經濟情勢充滿挑戰的時期，我們致力於透過適當的風險定價來保護我們生態系統中所有利害關係人的獲利能力，並有選擇地拒絕那些給開放式借貸、我們的保險公司合作夥伴或我們的貸方帶來不必要風險的貸款。隨著我們繼續克服這些表現不佳的優勢，我們預期開放式借貸的利潤分享收入表現的波動性應該會較小。

Turning to market conditions, we continue to be encouraged by the trends we are seeing in the automotive industry, specifically improvement in inventory levels, retail sales volumes, and affordability, all of which have shown modest year-over-year improvement. However, our core credit union customers continue to be challenged with elevated loan-to-share ratios, low share or deposit growth, and low loan growth.

談到市場狀況，我們繼續對汽車行業的趨勢感到鼓舞，特別是庫存水平、零售量和承受能力的改善，所有這些都顯示出同比的小幅改善。然而，我們的核心信用合作社客戶繼續面臨貸股比升高、股份或存款成長低以及貸款成長低的挑戰。

First, on the automotive industry, new vehicle inventory levels continue to improve and are up 52% year over year, while used vehicle inventory levels have stabilized at approximately 2.2 million units. Both new and used inventory levels remain 20% to 25% below pre-COVID levels, leaving room for continued recovery.

首先，在汽車產業，新車庫存水準持續改善，年增52%，而二手車庫存水準穩定在220萬輛左右。新庫存和二手庫存水準仍比新冠疫情前水準低 20% 至 25%，為持續復甦留下了空間。

Used retail sales volumes are up 4.1% year-over-year, which as a reminder, makes up approximately 85% of Open Lending certified loan volumes historically. That said, new retail sales volumes have decreased 7.6% year-over-year.

二手零售額年增 4.1%，值得注意的是，該數字約佔歷史上公開借貸認證貸款量的 85%。儘管如此，新零售額較去年同期下降7.6%。

June showed some weakness in new auto retail sales compared to May. We believe June retail numbers for both new and used sales were negatively impacted by the CDK dealer management system software outage.

6月汽車新零售較5月略有疲軟。我們認為 6 月的新舊銷售零售數據均受到 CDK 經銷商管理系統軟體故障的負面影響。

Affordability improved on a year-over-year basis, primarily driven by declining auto prices. Both new and used auto prices realized a year-over-year decline, with new transaction prices down 0.6% and used list prices down by approximately 7%.

負擔能力較去年有所改善，主要是因為汽車價格下降。新車和二手車價格均較去年同期下降，新車交易價格下降0.6%，二手車標價下降約7%。

However, average auto loan interest rates remain near recent highs with new vehicle loans at nearly 9% and used vehicle loans at over 14%. These rates continue to significantly impact consumer affordability.

然而，平均汽車貸款利率仍接近近期高位，新車貸款利率接近 9%，二手車貸款利率超過 14%。這些利率持續顯著影響消費者的承受能力。

Lastly, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a measure of wholesale used vehicle prices, is down nearly 9% from a year ago and down for the fourth month in a row in 2024. However, per Cox Automotive, the index is projected to be down only approximately 2% at the end of 2024 compared to 2023.

最後，曼海姆二手車價值指數（衡量二手車批發價格的指標）較去年同期下降近 9%，為 2024 年連續第四個月下降。然而，根據 Cox Automotive 的數據，預計該指數到 2024 年底將僅比 2023 年下降約 2%。

Now let's turn to our core credit union customers. Preliminary Q2 2024 data from Callahan & Associates, a leading third-party data provider within the credit union industry, suggest that industry average loan-to-share ratio, a measure of lending capacity, has declined from its recent peak to approximately 84%. To put this in perspective, historically the industry average has never exceeded 86%. So it is encouraging to see the industry loan-to-share ratio beginning to decline.

現在讓我們轉向我們的核心信用合作社客戶。信用合作社行業領先的第三方數據提供商 Callahan & Associates 的 2024 年第二季初步數據表明，行業平均貸款股比（衡量貸款能力的指標）已從近期高峰下降至約 84%。從歷史上看，行業平均從未超過86%。因此，看到產業貸款股比開始下降是令人鼓舞的。

On loan growth, loans across asset classes in the credit union industry grew at 3.8% year over year. Notably, this is the lowest level of loan growth since 2013, indicating our customers continue to face a challenging lending environment.

在貸款成長方面，信用合作社產業各資產類別的貸款年增 3.8%。值得注意的是，這是自 2013 年以來貸款成長的最低水平，表明我們的客戶繼續面臨充滿挑戰的貸款環境。

On share or deposit growth, we are encouraged by the third consecutive quarter of improvement. Share growth of 2.9% was nearly 170 basis points higher than the lows seen in Q3 of 2023. To put this in perspective, prior to 2023, credit union share growth had never been below 3%.

在股票或存款成長方面，我們對連續第三個季度的改善感到鼓舞。市佔率成長 2.9%，比 2023 年第三季的低點高出近 170 個基點。從這個角度來看，2023 年之前，信用合作社的份額成長從未低於 3%。

As we look ahead, we are encouraged by both the improvement in the auto industry and the positive signs that credit unions are well into the recovery process. As we have seen in prior cycles, we anticipate that credit unions will once again have healthy loan-to-share ratios and increase their lending activity to fulfill their mission to serve their members. We continue to believe there is significant pent-up demand among consumers for the transportation they need to carry on with their lives.

展望未來，我們對汽車產業的改善和信用合作社正在順利進入復甦進程的積極跡象感到鼓舞。正如我們在先前的周期中所看到的，我們預計信用合作社將再次擁有健康的貸款股比，並增加貸款活動，以履行其為會員服務的使命。我們仍然相信，消費者對生活所需的交通有大量被壓抑的需求。

Recent third-party research showed that over 70% of consumers had a stated intent to purchase a vehicle, but almost one-third of consumers were putting off the purchase due to high interest rates and affordability.

最近的第三方研究表明，超過 70% 的消費者有購買車輛的明確意圖，但近三分之一的消費者由於高利率和負擔能力而推遲購買。

Additionally, senior lending officers have chosen to shift their focus towards prime and super-prime consumers, as demonstrated by the Retail Vehicle Registration data. Since interest rate increases began, the retail vehicle registration data shows a 12% growth for borrowers with a 750-plus credit score, while the near and non-prime borrowers we serve have experienced a 12% decline.

此外，零售車輛登記數據表明，高級貸款官員已選擇將重點轉向優質和超級消費者。自升息開始以來，零售車輛登記數據顯示，信用評分超過 750 分的借款人增加了 12%，而我們服務的準借款人和非優質借款人則下降了 12%。

As inventory levels continue to improve, vehicle prices continue to moderate, and with the Federal Reserve interest rate cut more likely, we believe we are not far from seeing a more meaningful increase in vehicle sales activity. While we have been paying close attention to the challenges facing the auto lending industry, we have also taken thoughtful steps to maximize our eventual capture of the pent-up demand when market conditions inevitably recover.

隨著庫存水準持續改善，汽車價格持續溫和，加上聯準會降息的可能性更大，我們相信，我們距離看到汽車銷售活動更有意義的成長已經不遠了。在我們一直密切關注汽車貸款行業面臨的挑戰的同時，我們也採取了深思熟慮的措施，以便在市場狀況不可避免地復甦時，最大限度地最終抓住被壓抑的需求。

We aligned our sales and account management team's incentives to drive new customer acquisitions and certified loan growth from both new and existing customers. We are already seeing positive results from this aligned strategy. In the second quarter of 2024, we signed 13 new credit union customers Year-to-date through the end of the second quarter, we have signed 24 new customers, including one new bank. I am pleased to report that of the 13 new customers signed in the second quarter of 2024, four of them were larger customers and in aggregate have almost $7 billion in combined total assets.

我們調整了銷售和客戶管理團隊的激勵措施，以推動新客戶的獲取以及新客戶和現有客戶的認證貸款成長。我們已經看到這項一致策略的正面成果。2024 年第二季度，我們簽署了 13 位新的信用合作社客戶 年初至今，截至第二季末，我們已簽署了 24 位新客戶，其中包括一家新銀行。我很高興地報告，在 2024 年第二季簽署的 13 個新客戶中，其中 4 個是較大客戶，總資產總計近 70 億美元。

As a further testament to our enhanced go-to-market strategy and our sales and account management team members' execution, we have already signed 10 new customers in the third quarter. We continue to believe the Lenders Protection Program can help all lenders serving near and non-prime borrowers to minimize lenders' risk and optimize their yield.

我們在第三季已經簽約了 10 位新客戶，這進一步證明了我們強化的進入市場策略以及我們的銷售和客戶管理團隊成員的執行力。我們仍然相信，貸款人保護計劃可以幫助所有為接近借款人和非優質借款人提供服務的貸款人最大限度地降低貸款人的風險並優化其收益率。

We have also focused on further strengthening our partnerships with credit union leadership. We recently announced that Dan Berger, former president and CEO of the National Association of Federally Insured Credit Unions, or NAFCU, had joined Open Lending as strategic advisor. The partnership is off to a solid start as we are further driving customer engagement and expansion of relationships with credit unions across the country.

我們也致力於進一步加強與信用合作社領導層的合作夥伴關係。我們最近宣布，全國聯邦保險信用合作社協會 (NAFCU) 前總裁兼執行長 Dan Berger 已加入 Open Lending 擔任策略顧問。隨著我們進一步推動客戶參與並擴大與全國各地信用合作社的關係，這種合作夥伴關係已經有了一個很好的開始。

Turning now to our product and technology, we are actively working on developing solutions that improve the experience of our lender customers and their borrowers. We are focused on assisting and providing solutions to our lenders to help mitigate day-to-day operating challenges, including Increasing lenders' ability to automate decisioning, which allows our lenders to speed up the decision process, increasing their probability of capturing the loan. Exploring solutions that automate proof of income processing and other tools to minimize dealer and borrower friction. Assisting lenders with capital markets' efforts to provide lending capacity throughout economic cycles by accessing alternative sources of capital and evaluating opportunities to improve the value of our lenders' protection product by expanding insurance coverages.

現在轉向我們的產品和技術，我們正在積極開發解決方案，以改善貸方客戶及其借款人的體驗。我們專注於協助貸方並為其提供解決方案，以幫助緩解日常營運挑戰，包括提高貸方自動化決策的能力，這使我們的貸方能夠加快決策過程，提高他們獲得貸款的可能性。探索自動化收入證明處理的解決方案和其他工具，以最大限度地減少經銷商和借款人的摩擦。透過取得替代資本來源，協助資本市場的貸款人在整個經濟週期中提供貸款能力，並評估透過擴大保險範圍來提高貸款人保護產品價值的機會。

As I previously noted, we have taken multiple credit and pricing actions with the expectation of optimizing results for our lenders, our insurance carrier partners, and ultimately Open Lending. Looking ahead, we will continue to leverage the capabilities of our enhanced proprietary scorecard to implement targeted opportunities to drive improved performance and results.

正如我之前指出的，我們採取了多項信貸和定價行動，期望為我們的貸方、保險公司合作夥伴以及最終的開放式借貸優化結果。展望未來，我們將繼續利用增強型專有記分卡的功能來實施有針對性的機會，以推動績效和成果的提升。

Now turning to our insurance carriers, We're excited to add Securian Financial Group as an insurance partner for our Lenders Protection Program during the second quarter of 2024. With high financial strength ratings and a long history and familiarity with credit unions and other lending institution customers, Securian Financial is a great addition to our program and helps us expand our premium capacity in anticipation of our return to growth.

現在轉向我們的保險公司，我們很高興在 2024 年第二季將 Securian Financial Group 加入為我們貸款人保護計畫的保險合作夥伴。Securian Financial 擁有較高的財務實力評級、悠久的歷史以及對信用合作社和其他貸款機構客戶的熟悉，是我們計劃的重要補充，有助於我們擴大保費能力，以預期我們恢復成長。

While we have been focused on enhancing our product and operations to position us for future growth, we have also taken measures to control and reduce costs. We are taking a measured approach as it relates to our cost structure and are focused on only adding incremental costs that drive near-term revenue growth. Our expectation is we will be well positioned to expand our profit margins as the business grows again by leveraging our existing cost structure.

雖然我們一直專注於增強我們的產品和運營，為未來的成長做好準備，但我們也採取了措施來控制和降低成本。我們正在採取一種審慎的方法，因為它與我們的成本結構相關，並專注於僅增加推動近期收入成長的增量成本。我們的期望是，隨著業務的再次成長，我們將能夠透過利用現有的成本結構來擴大利潤率。

Before I turn the call over to Cecilia to go over our second-quarter 2024 results in more detail, I wanted to personally thank our entire team at Open Lending for your continued support and dedication to our company and for delivering these positive results despite continued challenging market conditions. I am encouraged by the early signs of improvement in market conditions and remain confident in the long-term opportunities ahead of us. The underserved, near and non-prime consumers need us and our lender partners now more than ever.

在我打電話給塞西莉亞，詳細介紹我們2024 年第二季的業績之前，我想親自感謝Open Lending 的整個團隊，感謝你們對我們公司的持續支持和奉獻，並在面臨持續挑戰的情況下取得了這些正面的成果市場狀況。我對市場狀況改善的早期跡象感到鼓舞，並對我們面前的長期機會保持信心。服務不足的消費者、近端消費者和非優質消費者現在比以往任何時候都更需要我們和我們的貸款合作夥伴。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Cecilia. Cecilia?

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給塞西莉亞。塞西莉亞？

Thanks, Chuck. During the second quarter of 2024, we facilitated 28,963 certified loans compared to 34,354 certified loans in the second quarter of 2023. Total revenue for the second quarter of 2024 was $26.7 million, which includes an ASC 606 negative change in estimate related to historic vintages associated with our profit share of $6.7 million, compared to $38.2 million in revenue in the second quarter of 2023, which included a negative change in estimate of $1.2 million.

謝謝，查克。2024 年第二季度，我們促成了 28,963 筆認證貸款，而 2023 年第二季為 34,354 筆認證貸款。2024 年第二季的總營收為2,670 萬美元，其中包括與歷史年份相關的ASC 606 預估負變化，與我們的利潤份額相關的670 萬美元，而2023 年第二季的營收為3,820 萬美元，其中包括預估負變動 120 萬美元。

To break down total revenues in the second-quarter 2024, program fee revenues were $14.8 million, profit share revenues were $9.3 million, net of the previously mentioned negative change in estimate, and claims administration fees and other revenue were $2.6 million.

以 2024 年第二季的總收入細分，項目費收入為 1,480 萬美元，利潤分成收入為 930 萬美元，扣除先前提到的預估負面變化，索賠管理費和其他收入為 260 萬美元。

As a reminder, profit share revenue comprises the expected earned premiums less the expected claims to be paid over the life of the contracts and less expenses attributable to the program. The net profit share to us is 72% and the monthly receipts from our insurance carriers reduce our contract asset. Profit share revenue in the second quarter of 2024 associated with new originations with $16 million or $552 per certified loan as compared to $19 million or $553 per certified loan in the second quarter of 2023.

提醒一下，利潤分成收入包括預期賺取的保費減去合約有效期內預計支付的索賠，再減去該計劃的費用。我們的淨利潤份額為 72%，每月來自保險公司的收入減少了我們的合約資產。2024 年第二季與新發放相關的利潤分成收入為 1,600 萬美元或每筆認證貸款 552 美元，而 2023 年第二季為 1,900 萬美元或每筆認證貸款 553 美元。

The $6.7 million negative profit share change in estimate recorded in the current quarter is associated with cumulative total profit share revenue previously recognized of approximately $394 million for periods dating back to January 2019 the ASC 606 implementation date and represents over 411,000 insured in-force loans in the portfolio. The cumulative profit share change in estimates since 2019 is a negative 2.2 million.

本季記錄的670 萬美元的利潤份額負變化與先前確認的自2019 年1 月（ASC 606 實施日期）以來累計利潤份額收入總額約為3.94 億美元有關，代表了超過411,000 筆已受保的有效貸款。自2019年以來，預計的累計利潤份額變化為負220萬。

Operating expenses were $17 million in the second quarter of 2024 compared to $16.3 million in the second quarter of 2023. Operating income was $4 million in the second quarter of 2024 compared to operating income of $15.7 million in the second quarter of 2023.

2024 年第二季的營運費用為 1,700 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季的營運費用為 1,630 萬美元。2024 年第二季的營業收入為 400 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季的營業收入為 1,570 萬美元。

Net income for the second quarter of 2024 was $2.9 million compared to a net income of $11.4 million in the second quarter of 2023. Basic and diluted net income per share was $0.02 in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to $0.09 in the second quarter of 2023.

2024 年第二季的淨利為 290 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季的淨利為 1,140 萬美元。2024 年第二季的基本和稀釋每股淨利潤為 0.02 美元，而 2023 年第二季為 0.09 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2024 was $9.9 million as compared to $20.7 million in the second quarter of 2023. Excluding profit share revenue change in estimate, we generated $16.6 million in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2024. There's a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release.

2024 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 990 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季為 2,070 萬美元。不計入預估的利潤分享收入變化，我們在 2024 年第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1,660 萬美元。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿後面找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

We exited the quarter with $382.8 million in total assets, of which $248 million was in unrestricted cash, $33.7 million in contract assets, and $66.3 million in net deferred tax assets. We had $166 million in total liabilities, of which $143.3 million was outstanding debt.

本季結束時，我們的總資產為 3.828 億美元，其中 2.48 億美元為非限制性現金，3,370 萬美元為合約資產，6,630 萬美元為淨遞延稅資產。我們的總負債為 1.66 億美元，其中 1.433 億美元為未償債務。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Chuck to discuss our guidance for the third quarter. Chuck?

我現在想把電話轉回給查克，討論我們對第三季的指導。查克？

Thanks, Cecilia. Now moving to our third-quarter 2024 guidance. The following factors were considered in our third-quarter 2024 guidance: continued elevated interest rates and modestly improving inflationary environment and its corresponding impact on the US consumer; uncertain macroeconomic conditions with rising unemployment rate and slower new job growth; lower-than-pre-COVID auto inventory levels and higher than historical vehicle prices continue to present affordability challenges for consumers; new and used retail sales volume that remain lower than pre-COVID levels despite year-over-year improvement; near historic high loan-to-share ratios combined with historically low share growth that continues to limit credit unions' lending capacity; and recent credit tightening actions that Open Lending has taken and the corresponding impact on volume. Additionally, we accounted for normal course of seasonality that we see between the second and third quarter.

謝謝，塞西莉亞。現在轉向我們的 2024 年第三季指引。我們在 2024 年第三季指引中考慮了以下因素：利率持續上升和通膨環境適度改善及其對美國消費者的相應影響；宏觀經濟情勢不確定，失業率上升，新就業成長放緩；低於新冠肺炎疫情前的汽車庫存水準和高於歷史水準的汽車價格持續對消費者的負擔能力造成挑戰；儘管年比有所改善，但新零售和二手零售銷售仍低於新冠疫情前的水平；貸款與股票比率接近歷史最高水平，加上股票成長處於歷史低位，繼續限制信用合作社的貸款能力；以及最近公開借貸採取的信貸緊縮行動以及對交易量的相應影響。此外，我們也考慮了第二季和第三季之間的正常季節性過程。

Accordingly, our guidance for the third quarter of 2024 is as follows. Total certified loans to be between $25,000 and $28,000, total revenue to be between $28 million and $31 million, and adjusted EBITDA to be between $11 million and $14 million.

因此，我們對 2024 年第三季的指導如下。經認證的貸款總額在25,000美元至28,000美元之間，總收入在2800萬美元至3100萬美元之間，調整後的EBITDA在1100萬美元至1400萬美元之間。

We have a strong balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities and generate positive cash flow which provides us with the financial flexibility to make targeted investments to accelerate revenue growth and position us well to capture pent-up demand as market conditions continue to improve. Additionally, we continue to focus on optimizing our profitability by both accelerating revenue and controlling costs.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表，沒有短期債務到期，並產生正現金流，這為我們提供了財務靈活性，可以進行有針對性的投資，以加速收入增長，並使我們能夠在市場狀況持續改善時抓住被壓抑的需求。此外，我們繼續致力於透過增加收入和控製成本來優化獲利能力。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining us today, and we will now take your questions.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們，我們現在將回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Kyle Peterson, Needham and Company.

（操作員說明）Kyle Peterson，Needham and Company。

I want to start off on the CDK impact. I know you guys mentioned it sounds like there was an impact. I just wanted to see if there's any way you guys could quantify that. And if that has kind of self-corrected into July, like kind of, I guess, was there some, just some push out or just any more color there would be really helpful.

我想從 CDK 的影響開始。我知道你們提到聽起來好像有影響。我只是想看看你們是否有任何方法可以量化這一點。如果這種情況在七月能夠自我糾正，我想，是否有一些，只是一些推出或只是更多的顏色，那將會非常有幫助。

Yeah, hey Kyle, it's Chuck. As we've kind of watched, you know, the CDK outage and kind of that unfold, you know, based on the data we've seen, you know, the outage impacted new auto vehicle sales more, and that was in our prepared comments. It really limited impact on used auto, and as we said in the prepared comments, we're historically about 85% used, so we didn't see a big impact in our Q2 volume related to that, and don't expect any impact going forward. Maybe on the new front, but not on used, since it was mainly impacting new.

是的，嘿凱爾，我是查克。正如我們所觀察到的，CDK 中斷以及這種情況的展開，根據我們所看到的數據，中斷對新車銷售的影響更大，這是我們準備好的評論。這對二手車的影響確實有限，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，歷史上我們的二手車使用率約為85%，因此我們沒有看到與此相關的第二季度銷量產生重大影響，並且預計不會產生任何影響繼續前進。也許是在新方面，但不是在舊方面，因為它主要影響新方面。

Okay. That's helpful, and then I guess just a follow-up on the outlook in the 3Q guide, I guess. Have you guys factored in a Fed rate cut in September in the guide? And I guess could you just remind us how changes in Fed funds or the shape of the yield curve would impact you guys specifically on the refi side of things?

好的。這很有幫助，然後我想這只是第三季指南中前景的後續行動。你們在指南中考慮到聯準會九月降息了嗎？我想您能否提醒我們聯邦基金或殖利率曲線形狀的變化將如何影響你們，特別是在再融資方面？

Yeah, as we think about the Q3 guide, and the prepared comments in our inputs there, continued elevated interest rates is what we've put in there, in a modestly improving inflationary environment, Kyle. So we're hopeful just like everybody that the Fed's going to take action in September and begin lowering rates.

是的，當我們考慮第三季指南以及我們投入的準備好的評論時，在通膨環境適度改善的情況下，我們已經提出了持續升高的利率，凱爾。因此，我們和所有人一樣希望聯準會將在 9 月採取行動並開始降息。

I guess the dot plot is calling for 25 basis point reduction in September, and I think the market's maybe anticipating two 25 basis point reductions. And Open Lending and our -- the consumers we serve would welcome that and it could be a good opportunity for us as we move forward, as we think about our refi channel and volumes going forward. But in the guidance we put out, it continued elevated rates to answer your question.

我猜點陣圖要求 9 月降息 25 個基點，我認為市場可能預計會有兩次 25 個基點的降息。開放式貸款和我們服務的消費者會對此表示歡迎，隨著我們考慮未來的再融資管道和數量，這對我們來說可能是一個很好的機會。但在我們發布的指導中，它繼續提高了回答您問題的比率。

That's helpful. Thank you, guys.

這很有幫助。謝謝你們，夥計們。

James Fawcett, Morgan Stanley.

詹姆斯‧福塞特，摩根士丹利。

Hi, everyone. It's Michael on for James. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to ask on the profit share side, is there any [make-hold] period with profit share, specifically with any of your financial partners? And if so, for how long and by how much?

大家好。麥可替補詹姆斯。感謝您提出我們的問題。我只是想問一下利潤分成方面，是否有利潤分成的[暫停]期，特別是與您的任何財務合作夥伴？如果是的話，持續多久以及多少？

Yeah, I mean, if you think about the make-hold on the profit share, there's a period Open Lending -- we don't write checks if the profit share were to go, say, negative for a period of time due to high claims and defaults, but there's basically a recapture of that that comes back to the carriers with us. I hope I answered your question, but yeah.

是的，我的意思是，如果你考慮一下利潤分成的暫停，就會有一段時期的公開借貸——如果利潤分成在一段時間內由於高利率而變為負值，我們不會開支票。和違約，但基本上我們會重新收回這些索賠和違約金。我希望我回答了你的問題，但是的。

Yeah, no, that's helpful. Maybe just on the refi side, sort of take your comments just in terms of what you embedded into the outlook, but I guess how are you sort of thinking about refi over the near to medium term, particularly given where historical mix was sort of in the '21, '22 timeframe, sort of conscious of -- somewhat constrained credit union lending demand, which seems to be stabilizing/improving. Thanks.

是的，不，這很有幫助。也許只是在再融資方面，只是根據您嵌入前景的內容來發表您的評論，但我想您對中短期內的再融資有何看法，特別是考慮到歷史組合在某種程度上在“21” 、「22」的時間範圍內，信用合作社的貸款需求在某種程度上受到了限制，而這似乎正在穩定/改善。謝謝。

Yeah, no, thank you. Yeah, I mean, for Q2 of 24, refi was 3% of our volume. And as you pointed out, in '22, I think it was -- February '22 might have been the peak at like 40%-plus of our volume. And that was prior to the Fed begin raising rates that we've seen over the last, call it 18 months.

是的，不，謝謝。是的，我的意思是，在 24 個季度的第二季度，再融資占我們交易量的 3%。正如您所指出的，在 22 年，我認為 22 年 2 月可能是我們交易量的 40% 以上的峰值。那是在聯準會開始升息之前，我們過去已經看到，稱之為 18 個月。

As we kind of look forward, I think the most important thing to remember, our credit union customers -- core customer -- 75% of our volume historically, Still improving signs of loan-to-share ratios, as we said, are improving there. Share growth's beginning to build. All those are great signs that we've seen through past cycles where the health of the credit union and they begin lending again. The rates coming down is great for our business long-term and even in the short-term, but we also have to have healthy lending capacity at our credit union customers.

當我們展望未來時，我認為最重要的是要記住，我們的信用合作社客戶——核心客戶——歷史上占我們交易量的75%，正如我們所說，貸款與股票比率的跡象仍在改善那裡。分享成長開始建立。所有這些都是很好的跡象，表明我們在過去的周期中看到了信用合作社的健康狀況以及它們再次開始放貸的情況。利率下降對我們的業務長期甚至短期都有好處，但我們也必須為信用合作社客戶提供健康的貸款能力。

Appreciate that.

很欣賞這一點。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

文森特·凱恩蒂克，BTIG。

First question on the profit share and just kind of digging into that $6.7 billion adjustment. I'm just wondering if you can maybe talk about, since there's been a couple of negative adjustments for the past couple of quarters already, sort of what's baked into estimates now, and I guess what would cause profit share adjustments downwards from here. It does seem like there was a big adjustment this quarter. Thank you.

第一個問題是關於利潤分成，並深入探討了 67 億美元的調整。我只是想知道你是否可以談談，因為過去幾個季度已經出現了一些負面調整，現在的估計中包含了哪些內容，我猜是什麼會導致利潤份額調整從這裡開始向下。看來這個季度確實有很大的調整。謝謝。

Yeah. Hey, Vincent. Good to talk to you again. If you think about -- kind of the stress we put on the portfolio, we think about it more as a loss ratio approach, and there's three components to profit share. Obviously, severity of loss, which is driven by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. You've got default frequency, which is claims, and then you've also got prepay speed. So all of that goes in the equation.

是的。嘿，文森特。很高興再次與你交談。如果你考慮我們對投資組合施加的壓力，我們更多地將其視為一種損失率方法，並且利潤分成由三個組成部分組成。顯然，損失的嚴重程度是由曼海姆二手車價值指數所驅動的。您有預設頻率，即索賠，然後您還有預付款速度。所以所有這些都在等式中。

And the vintage we put on in the second quarter, we had about a 60% ultimate loss ratio on the newer vintages, and feel good about that, and feel like it's adequate stress. The $6.7 million that we booked in the second quarter, as we put in the prepared comments, it was all mainly or primarily associated with '21 and '22 vintages. And that's across the industry. Anybody in auto lending has -- those are lower-performing vintages. At the time, they were at the peak of the Manheim and the used vehicle values.

我們在第二季推出的年份中，較新年份的最終損失率約為 60%，我們對此感覺良好，感覺壓力足夠了。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們在第二季度預訂的 670 萬美元全部主要或主要與 '21 和 '22 年份相關。這在整個行業都是如此。汽車貸款領域的任何人都經歷過——這些都是表現較差的年份。當時，他們正處於曼海姆和二手車價值的頂峰。

We believe that we're working through those, the typical claim period for a claim or default is 18 to 24 months out. And we're getting to that point and past on those worth performing advantages. So that's -- we hire claims in default and then the Manheim moved down a little more than we thought in the second quarter.

我們相信我們正在解決這些問題，索賠或違約的典型索賠期為 18 至 24 個月。我們已經到了這一點，並超越了那些值得發揮的優勢。所以，我們僱用了違約索賠人，然後曼海姆第二季的下降幅度比我們想像的要大一些。

But if you also in the prepared comments, Cox is forecasting Manheim to only be down about 2% for the year. And as of June, it was down 9%. So the Manheim is -- and actually went up on the July print about 3%, I believe, to [201]. So that Manheim is, we believe, is stabilizing out, and vehicle values are stable, and that's going to be good for our business.

但如果你也在準備好的評論中，考克斯預測曼海姆今年只會下跌約 2%。截至 6 月，下降了 9%。所以曼海姆指數實際上在 7 月的印刷品上上漲了 3% 左右，我相信，[201]。因此，我們相信曼海姆正在穩定下來，車輛價值也穩定，這對我們的業務有利。

Okay, thank you. And just following up on that then.

好的，謝謝。然後繼續跟進。

Yeah, and real quick, and we believe, as we work through these vintages that in our prepared comments, that our profit share will be less volatile. And Cecilia's points about the cumulative effect, we can't lose sight that when we adopted this pronouncement in 2019, we've had $394 million in total profit share revenue. And yeah, we've had some really good years there during the pandemic and the stimulus to where we had really positive adjustments. And we've had a few negative adjustments here lately based on those lower-performing vintages. But still, all in, it's material at 2.2 million negatives. So just don't want to lose sight of that.

是的，很快，我們相信，當我們在準備好的評論中討論這些年份時，我們的利潤份額的波動性將會較小。塞西莉亞關於累積效應的觀點，我們不能忘記，當我們在 2019 年採用這項聲明時，我們的利潤分成總額已達到 3.94 億美元。是的，在大流行期間，我們在那裡度過了一些非常美好的時光，並且在刺激措施下，我們進行了非常積極的調整。最近，我們根據那些表現不佳的年份進行了一些負面調整。但總的來說，220 萬張底片還是很重要的。所以只是不想忽視這一點。

Right, that's helpful. And to your point about, so these 2021 and 2022 vintages, you worked through them over 18 to 24 months. So would it be correct to think that maybe by the end of this year, or maybe by early 2025, after we get through 24 months, that we would have already gotten past the issues of these vintages?

對了，這很有幫助。就您而言，您花了 18 到 24 個月的時間來釀造這些 2021 和 2022 年份的葡萄酒。那麼，也許到今年年底，或者也許到 2025 年初，經過 24 個月後，我們就已經解決了這些年份的問題，這樣的想法是否正確？

That's correct. They're mostly -- yeah, those will be behind it. That's right.

這是正確的。他們大多是——是的，那些人將在背後支持。這是正確的。

Okay, great. And then just one more for me, switching to the certification volume, just sort of wondering if you can differentiate what you're expecting in terms of the OEM certification volume versus the bank and credit union volume. It looks like the bank and credit union grew a little bit this quarter, OEM shrunk a little bit this quarter. So just kind of wondering if you can expand on sort of what you're seeing with your outlook going forward. Thank you.

好的，太好了。然後對我來說還有一個，切換到認證量，只是想知道您是否可以區分您對 OEM 認證量與銀行和信用合作社認證量的期望。看起來銀行和信用合作社本季略有成長，OEM 本季略有萎縮。因此，我想知道您是否可以擴展您所看到的未來​​展望。謝謝。

Yeah, I'd say, if you think about the guide that we put out there, I'd say a similar mix to Q2 between the credit unions and the OEMs that you saw in the second quarter.

是的，我想說，如果你考慮我們在那裡發布的指南，我會說你在第二季度看到的信用合作社和原始設備製造商之間的組合與第二季度類似。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. Thanks very much.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。非常感謝。

John Davis, Raymond James.

約翰戴維斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hi, this is Taylor from JD. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe if I can just follow up on the last question. It looks like OEM certs declined year over year for the first time in a while this quarter. So just any color you could provide there on what drove the year over year decline would be great.

大家好，我是京東的泰勒。感謝您提出問題。也許我可以跟進最後一個問題。看起來本季 OEM 證書一段時間以來首次出現同比下降。因此，您可以提供任何有關導致同比下降的原因的顏色都很棒。

Yeah, on the OEMs, on the second quarter, '24 to '23, I'd say it's just maybe the environment itself and a little bit of mix there between the customers. But the OEM incentives are coming back. We put in some credit tightening across some of our tiers and did a premium increase to appropriately price for the risk. And so some of that's probably baking in there on the tightening actions that we took.

是的，對於原始設備製造商來說，在第二季度，24 至 23 年，我想說這可能只是環境本身以及客戶之間的一些混合。但 OEM 激勵措施正在回歸。我們在某些​​層級實施了一些信貸緊縮，並提高了溢價以適當地定價風險。因此，其中一些可能是由於我們採取的緊縮措施而產生的。

Because as we think about it, we want to put good loans on the books and -- for our partners, lender partners, our carriers, as well as Open Lending. So part of that could just be the tightening actions that we took.

因為正如我們所思考的那樣，我們希望為我們的合作夥伴、貸方合作夥伴、我們的營運商以及開放貸款提供良好的貸款。因此，部分原因可能是我們採取的緊縮行動。

Great. Thanks for the call.

偉大的。感謝您的來電。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, I will now hand the conference over to Chuck Jehl for his closing comments.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，由於沒有其他問題了，我現在將會議交給查克·傑爾 (Chuck Jehl) 作總結發言。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining us today and appreciate your interest and support. And I'd like to again thank all of the employees, the entire team at Open Lending for your hard work and dedication and all you do for our company. Thanks and have a great day.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們，並感謝你們的興趣和支持。我想再次感謝 Open Lending 的所有員工、整個團隊的辛勤工作和奉獻精神以及你們為我們公司所做的一切。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference of Open Learning Corporation has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

謝謝。開放學習公司的會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。