Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Loar Holdings Inc., third quarter 2024 earnings presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候，歡迎參加 Loar Holdings Inc. 2024 年第三季財報。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Ian McKillop, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係總監 Ian McKillop。謝謝。現在您就可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, and welcome to the Loar Holdings 2024 third quarter earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are Loar's Chief Executive Officer and Executive Co-Chairman, Dirkson Charles; Executive Co-Chairman, Brett Milgrim; Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer, Glenn D'Alessandro; as was myself, Ian McKillop, the Director of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，羅布。早安，歡迎參加 Loar Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。參加今天早上電話會議的有 Loar 的執行長兼執行聯席主席 Dirkson Charles；執行聯席主席 Brett Milgrim；財務主管兼財務長 Glenn D'Alessandro；我自己，投資人關係總監伊恩‧麥基洛普（Ian McKillop）也是如此。

Please visit our website at loargroup.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information. Before we begin, we at Loar would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward-looking statements.

請造訪我們的網站 loargroup.com 以取得補充投影片和通話重播資訊。在我們開始之前，Loar 想提醒您，本次電話會議所作的陳述並非歷史事實，而是前瞻性的陳述。

For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investor Relations section of our website or at sec.gov.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異的重要因素的更多信息，請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的最新文件，該文件可通過我們網站的投資者關係部分或 sec.gov 獲取。

We'd like to also advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted earnings per share, each of which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations.

我們也想提醒您，在通話過程中，我們將參考調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和調整後的每股盈餘，它們都是非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱收益報告中的表格和相關腳註，以了解最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標和適用的對帳。

To begin today, I will now turn the call over to Dirkson.

今天首先我將把發言權交給德克森。

Thanks, Ian. Good morning, everyone. Our partners, analysts and those of you who are on the call and hearing our story for the first time. I'm Dirkson Charles, Founder, CEO and Co-Chairman of Loar. So look, I just want to remind everybody how we like to do these calls.

謝謝，伊恩。大家早安。我們的合作夥伴、分析師以及第一次打電話聽到我們的故事的人。我是 Dirkson Charles，Loar 的創辦人、執行長兼聯合主席。所以看，我只是想提醒大家我們喜歡如何進行這些通話。

We truly believe that your time is valuable. And as a result, we'll keep our remarks as brief as possible to allow the analysts the majority of the hour we've allocated to ask questions to ensure that we focus on the things that matter to you.

我們確實相信您的時間非常寶貴。因此，我們將盡可能簡短地發言，以便分析師能夠利用我們分配的大部分時間來提問，確保我們專注於你們關心的事情。

So let's start by reminding you who we are. Loar is a family of companies with a very simple approach to creating shareholder value. First, we believe that providing our business units an entrepreneurial and collaborative environment to advance their brands, we will generate above-market growth rates.

首先讓我們來提醒一下你我們是誰。Loar 是一家家族企業，其創造股東價值的方法非常簡單。首先，我們相信，透過為我們的業務部門提供一個創業和協作環境來提升他們的品牌，我們將實現高於市場的成長率。

Since our inception in 2012 through the end of calendar year 2023, we have grown sales and adjusted EBITDA at a compound annual growth rate of 38% and 46%, respectively. We collaborate across business units by sharing best practices and ideas, while assisting each other when it comes to execution.

自 2012 年成立至 2023 年底，我們的銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的複合年增長率分別達到 38% 和 46%。我們透過分享最佳實踐和想法進行跨業務部門協作，同時在執行時互相協助。

We execute along four value streams. We identified pain points within the aerospace industry and look to solve those problems through organically launching new products, which we believe over the long-term will create 1 percentage to 3 percentage points of top line growth.

我們依照四個價值流執行。我們確定了航空航太產業的痛點，並希望透過有機推出新產品來解決這些問題，我們相信從長遠來看，這將創造 1% 到 3 個百分點的營收成長。

We focus on optimizing the way we manufacture, go-to-market and manage our companies to enhance productivity. And each year, we'll identify initiatives that will allow us to continually improve our performance with a focus on one or two major initiatives that will improve margins.

我們專注於優化製造、上市和管理公司的方式，以提高生產力。每年，我們都會確定一些能夠讓我們持續提高業績的舉措，並專注於一到兩項能夠提高利潤率的主要舉措。

We also, each year across our portfolio of companies will achieve more price than inflation. Again, the sum total of all of these actions is margin improvement, as we'll walk you through in a moment here. Most importantly, we are committing to developing and improving the talent of all our employees because our success is truly as a result of their dedication and commitment. So best part of this to online to all my mates, including our new brothers and sisters in Texas, a big thank you for your commitment and hard work.

我們旗下公司投資組合的價格每年都將高於通膨率。再次強調，所有這些舉措的最終目的就是提高利潤率，我們稍後會向您介紹這一點。最重要的是，我們致力於培養和提高所有員工的才能，因為我們的成功確實歸功於他們的奉獻和承諾。因此，最好的部分是在網路上向我所有的伙伴，包括我們在德克薩斯州的新兄弟姐妹們，表示衷心的感謝，感謝你們的承諾和辛勤工作。

I'll now turn the call over to Brett.

我現在將電話轉給布雷特。

Thanks, Dirkson. This is a chart everybody has seen in the past. It really shows how our portfolio of companies that we've acquired and grown are constructed across end markets, across aftermarket versus OE split, and of course, the heavily weighted nature of it being proprietary products that we own.

謝謝，德克森。這是過去每個人都曾見過的圖表。它確實展示了我們所收購和發展的公司組合是如何在終端市場、售後市場與 OE 分部之間構建的，當然還有我們擁有的專有產品所具有的巨大權重。

The key takeaway from this slide, I think is that we want to have a very balanced portfolio, be it around end market, be it around customers, be it around products or again, even the aftermarket and OEMs. However, and you've heard me say this in the past, while we are relatively agnostic and want to keep a balance across all those different categories, one thing that we are not agnostic about, we are incredibly disciplined about is our approach to acquisitions.

我認為，這張投影片的關鍵點是，我們希望擁有一個非常平衡的投資組合，無論是圍繞終端市場、圍繞客戶、圍繞產品，還是圍繞售後市場和原始設備製造商。然而，正如你們過去聽我說過的那樣，雖然我們相對而言比較中立，並且希望在所有不同類別中保持平衡，但有一件事我們並不是中立的，而是我們對收購方式非常嚴格。

As you see in these six or seven different boxes right here. One thing I want to highlight, as we talked about our Applied Avionics acquisition that we did recently is that it checks all these boxes. First and foremost, it's in aerospace and defense-focused business. We are not going to open the aperture as others have said, in so much as our acquisition focus. We want to maintain products in niche categories where we have a very strong market position and there's very high barriers to entry.

正如您在這六、七個不同的框框中看到的。當我們談論我們最近的 Applied Avionics 收購時，我想強調的一點是，它滿足了所有這些條件。首先，它專注於航空航天和國防業務。就我們的收購重點而言，我們不會像其他人所說的那樣打開光圈。我們希望保持在利基類別的產品，這些類別中我們擁有非常強大的市場地位，而且進入門檻非常高。

Those barriers to entry are created because we have proprietary content, where we are one of just a very, very few number of people on the planet who can make a particular product. We also want to have a balance between aftermarket and OEM but every category that we're in and every product that we sell has to have some aftermarket exposure to it.

這些進入障礙的產生是因為我們擁有專有內容，我們是地球上極少數能夠生產特定產品的人之一。我們也希望在售後市場和 OEM 之間取得平衡，但我們所涉及的每個類別和我們銷售的每種產品都必須有一定的售後市場曝光度。

And ultimately, we want to put this portfolio of companies together and these capabilities together so that we can create cross-selling opportunities across the group and maintain long-standing customer relationships where we can build strong relationships with customers, drive revenue and have outsized growth relative to the market.

最終，我們希望將這些公司組合和這些能力整合在一起，以便我們能夠在整個集團內創造交叉銷售機會並維持長期的客戶關係，從而與客戶建立牢固的關係，推動收入成長並實現相對於市場的超額成長。

Yeah. And as Brett mentioned, with the addition of Applied Avionics to the Loar family, we have further enhanced and diversified the proprietary nature of our product offering, Applied Avionics designs and manufactures Vivisun-ruggedized MIL-SPEC lighted pushbutton switches and indicators as well as the NEXSYS line of Avionics interface solutions, which integrate system-to-system functions like ARINC-429 converters and solid-state relays directly into the switch, enabling expanded solution capabilities behind the cockpit panel.

是的。正如 Brett 所提到的，隨著 Applied Avionics 加入 Loar 家族，我們進一步增強並豐富了我們產品的專有性，Applied Avionics 設計和製造 Vivisun 加固型 MIL-SPEC 發光按鈕開關和指示器以及 NEXSYS 系列航空電子介面解決方案，將系統到系統功能（如 ARINC-429 裝置後直接連接到裝置開關）。

Applied is an excellent complement to our existing portfolio of more than 15,000 products, whether it's sensors, water purification systems, deicing systems or human interface devices or one of the many other products we continue to believe that we have capabilities that are unique to serving our customers for Loar.

應用材料公司對我們現有的超過 15,000 種產品組合進行了很好的補充，無論是感測器、水淨化系統、除冰系統、人機介面設備還是其他眾多產品中的一種，我們始終相信我們擁有為 Loar 客戶提供服務的獨特能力。

I will now pass the call over to Glenn.

我現在將電話轉給格倫。

Thank you, Ian. Good morning, everyone. Let me start by discussing sales by our end markets. This comparison will be on a pro forma basis as if each of our businesses were owned as the first day of the earliest period presented. This market discussion includes the recent acquisition of Applied Avionics.

謝謝你，伊恩。大家早安。讓我先討論一下我們的終端市場的銷售情況。該比較將以備考為基礎，就好像我們的每項業務都是在所示最早期間的第一天擁有的。此次市場討論包括最近對 Applied Avionics 的收購。

We had record sales during the third quarter of '24. In total, our sales increased to $110 million, a 16% increase as compared to the prior year period. This increase was driven by strong performances in defense, commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket.

我們在24年第三季的銷售額創下了紀錄。整體而言，我們的銷售額增加至 1.1 億美元，比去年同期成長 16%。這一成長主要得益於國防、商業 OEM 和商業售後市場的強勁表現。

Commercial aftermarket sales increased 19% in Q3 as compared to the prior year period and are up 16% sequentially from Q2 '24. This is primarily driven by the continued strength in demand for commercial air travel. During Q3 '24, our commercial aftermarket bookings remained strong. Our total commercial OEM sales increased by 21% in Q3 '24 as compared to the prior year period.

第三季商業售後市場銷售額較去年同期成長 19%，較 24 年第二季較上季成長 16%。這主要是受商業航空旅行需求持續強勁的推動。24 年第三季度，我們的商業售後市場預訂量依然強勁。與去年同期相比，我們的 24 年第三季商業 OEM 總銷售額成長了 21%。

This increase was driven primarily by higher sales across a significant portion of the platforms we supply, including general aviation, wide-body and narrow-body aircraft as an improving supply chain has allowed us to deliver parts that were previously held because our customers were experiencing bottlenecks in other areas of their supply chain.

這一成長主要得益於我們所供應的大部分平台的銷售成長，包括通用航空、寬體和窄體飛機，因為不斷改善的供應鏈使我們能夠交付先前因客戶在其供應鏈的其他領域遇到瓶頸而擱置的零件。

Our defense sales increased 25% as compared to the prior year period. This was primarily due to strong demand across multiple platforms and an increase in market share as a result of new product launches. Defense sales will continue to be lumpy given the nature of ordering patterns of our end customers for our products.

我們的國防銷售額比去年同期成長了25%。這主要是由於多個平台的強勁需求以及新產品的推出導致的市場份額增加。考慮到最終客戶對我們產品的訂購模式的性質，國防銷售將繼續不穩定。

Let me recap our financial highlights for the third quarter of '24. Our net organic sales increased 17% over the prior period. Our gross profit for Q3 '24 increased 200 basis points as compared to the prior year period. This increase was primarily due to the execution of our strategic value drivers as well as operating leverage. This was partially offset by dilutive effects related to the move of one of our manufacturing facilities.

讓我回顧一下 2024 年第三季的財務亮點。我們的淨有機銷售額較上一季成長了 17%。與去年同期相比，我們 24 年第三季的毛利增加了 200 個基點。這一成長主要歸功於我們策略價值驅動因素以及經營槓桿的執行。這被我們一家製造工廠搬遷帶來的稀釋效應部分抵消了。

Our increase in net income of $6 million in Q3 '24 versus Q3 '23 is primarily due to higher operating income and lower interest expense as a result of paying down $285 million of indebtedness with the proceeds from the IPO and the refinancing of our credit agreement in May of '24. This was partially offset by higher interest as a result of the $360 million incremental term loan for the acquisition of Applied Avionics as well as higher income taxes.

與 2023 年第三季相比，我們在 2024 年第三季的淨收入增加了 600 萬美元，這主要是由於我們用 IPO 所得以及 2024 年 5 月的信用協議再融資償還了 2.85 億美元的債務，從而導致營業收入增加且利息支出減少。但因收購 Applied Avionics 而增加的 3.6 億美元定期貸款利息增加以及所得稅增加，部分抵消了這一增幅。

Adjusted EBITDA was up $9 million in Q3 '24 versus the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margins remained strong at 36.8% due to a favorable sales mix execution of our strategic value drivers and operating leverage. This was partially offset by the continued build-out of our infrastructure to support our reporting, governance and control needs as a newly public company.

24年第三季的調整後EBITDA較去年同期增加了900萬美元。由於我們策略價值驅動因素和經營槓桿的良好銷售組合執行，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率保持強勁，為 36.8%。作為一家新上市公司，我們不斷擴大基礎設施以支援我們的報告、治理和控制需求，從而部分抵消了這種影響。

Our adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to grow to 37.5% in calendar '25. This represents a 270 basis points margin growth since 2022. This chart shows we have been executing on our value drivers while acquiring two dilutive acquisitions and incurring infrastructure costs to support our needs as a public company.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計將在 25 年增長至 37.5%。這意味著自 2022 年以來利潤率成長了 270 個基點。這張圖表顯示，我們在執行價值驅動因素的同時，進行了兩次稀釋性收購，並承擔了基礎設施成本，以支持我們作為上市公司的需求。

Our full year market assumptions are as follows: commercial OEM, up high double digits, commercial aftermarket, up mid-double digits, defense up high double digits.

我們對全年市場做出以下假設：商業 OEM 成長高兩位數，商業售後市場成長中兩位數，防禦成長高兩位數。

Our '24 outlook is as follows: sales, $390 million to $394 million, adjusted EBITDA, $141 million to $143 million, adjusted EBITDA margin approximately 36%, net income, $19 million to $20 million; adjusted EPS, $0.35 per share to $0.37 per share.

我們對 24 年的展望如下：銷售額 3.9 億美元至 3.94 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 1.41 億美元至 1.43 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 36%，淨收入 1,900 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元；調整後每股收益從每股 0.35 美元降至每股 0.37 美元。

Our '24 assumptions used in calculating the '24 revised forecast are as follows: capital expenditures, approximately $9 million, down from $11 million. Full year interest expense of approximately $54 million. This is up from our previous forecast of $42 million due to the borrowing of $360 million for the acquisition of Applied Avionics in Q3.

我們在計算 24 年修訂預測時所使用的 24 年假設如下：資本支出約 900 萬美元，低於 1,100 萬美元。全年利息支出約5,400萬美元。這高於我們先前預測的 4,200 萬美元，原因是第三季借款 3.6 億美元收購 Applied Avionics。

Full year effective tax rate is approximately 30%. Depreciation and amortization is $43 million. This is up from the previous forecast of $40 million as a result of higher depreciation and amortization for the -- from the purchase of Applied Avionics in Q3. Non-cash stock-based compensation is approximately $11 million, up from $10 million, and our fully diluted shares are approximately $91 million.

全年有效稅率約為30%。折舊和攤提為 4,300 萬美元。這高於先前預測的 4,000 萬美元，原因是第三季收購 Applied Avionics 導致折舊和攤提費用增加。非現金股票薪酬約為 1,100 萬美元，高於 1,000 萬美元，而我們的全面攤薄股份約為 9,100 萬美元。

Let me turn the call back over to Dirkson to share our '25 outlook.

讓我把電話轉回給德克森，分享我們 25 年的展望。

Okay. This is the part of the call that I enjoy the most. Glenn just gave you our 13-week forecast which I always struggle with, right, because we're building this business for the long-term, long, long-term. I realize we have to, so we did.

好的。這是通話中我最喜歡的部分。格倫剛剛給了你我們 13 週的預測，而我總是對此感到困惑，對吧，因為我們正在為長期、長期、長期地打造這項業務。我知道我們必須這麼做，所以我們就這麼做了。

So let's talk about our initial guidance for 2025 and I'll repeat that, the initial guidance. Now we know most of our colleagues in the public environment will wait until we report earnings for the full year to share their outlook, but we felt we wanted to share how we are thinking about the business next year with you guys as soon as possible.

那麼，讓我們來談談我們對 2025 年的初步指導，我會重複初步指導。現在我們知道，大多數公共環境中的同事都會等到我們報告全年收益後再分享他們的展望，但我們覺得我們希望盡快與大家分享我們對明年業務的看法。

So given the fact that we have such strong visibility in our business, as a result of the proprietary content of our portfolio and record backlogs at the end of the third quarter. These characteristics, combined with the high demand for aircraft by airlines the challenges by the OEMs to produce new aircraft and you can pick your favorite poison and whether that's a strike or supply chain challenges. We continue to drive increased aftermarket demand. So for our part.

鑑於我們的業務具有如此強大的可見性，這是我們產品組合的專有內容和第三季末的創紀錄積壓訂單的結果。這些特點，加上航空公司對飛機的高需求，以及原始設備製造商在生產新飛機方面面臨的挑戰，您可以選擇自己喜歡的毒藥，無論是罷工還是供應鏈挑戰。我們持續推動售後市場需求的成長。就我們而言。

So just given the geopolitical visibility in the world, we see and we expect, on a pro forma basis, assuming we own all of our businesses since the beginning of 2024, that our end markets will be up as follows. So let's go through it.

因此，考慮到世界地緣政治的可見性，我們看到並預計，在形式上，假設我們自 2024 年初以來擁有所有業務，我們的終端市場將出現以下增長。讓我們來看一下。

Commercial OEM and aftermarket will be up high single digits versus 2024. Defense end market sales will be up high double digits versus 2024. These market assumptions, along with our continued execution of our value drivers will allow us to meet or exceed the following for calendar year 2025.

與 2024 年相比，商業 OEM 和售後市場將實現高個位數成長。與 2024 年相比，國防終端市場銷售額將實現兩位數的高成長。這些市場假設加上我們對價值驅動因素的持續執行將使我們能夠在 2025 日曆年達到或超過以下目標。

Net sales between $470 million to $480 million; adjusted EBITDA between $176 million and $180 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin will be approximately 37.5%, which I'd like to highlight is a 150 basis points improvement over 2024. Net income between $33 million and $37 million, adjusted EPS between $0.45 and $0.50 per share.

淨銷售額在 4.7 億美元至 4.8 億美元之間；調整後的 EBITDA 在 1.76 億美元至 1.8 億美元之間，而調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將約為 37.5%，我想強調的是，這比 2024 年提高了 150 個基點。淨收入在 3,300 萬美元至 3,700 萬美元之間，調整後每股收益在 0.45 美元至 0.50 美元之間。

In addition, we expect capital expenditures of approximately $14 million, interest expense of approximately $60 million, while our effective tax rate will be approximately 30%. Depreciation and amortization, approximately $51 million and our non-cash stock-based compensation will be approximately $15 million. All of this divided by a fully diluted share count of 93 million shares.

此外，我們預計資本支出約為 1,400 萬美元，利息支出約為 6,000 萬美元，而我們的有效稅率約為 30%。折舊和攤提約為 5,100 萬美元，我們的非現金股票薪酬約為 1500 萬美元。所有這些除以完全稀釋的股數 9,300 萬股。

So please note that all of the amounts I've just outlined for you relative to calendar 2025 performance assumes no additional acquisitions. However, as we have noted previously, our drumbeat is to complete one or two acquisitions each year, but we cannot predict the timing of such acquisition.

因此，請注意，我剛剛為您概述的相對於 2025 年日曆表現的所有金額均假設沒有額外的收購。然而，正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是每年完成一到兩次收購，但我們無法預測此類收購的時間。

One last metric, which is not on the slide that I want to share for 2025. We expect operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, to be greater than 125% of our net income, assuming no additional acquisitions. I'm going to say that one more time. We expect operating cash flow minus capital expenditures to be greater than 125% of our net income, assuming no additional acquisitions in calendar year 2025.

最後一個指標，它並不在我想分享的 2025 年投影片上。我們預計，經營現金流減去資本支出將超過淨收入的 125％（假設沒有額外的收購）。我要再說一次。假設 2025 年曆年沒有額外的收購，我們預期營運現金流減去資本支出將超過我們淨收入的 125％。

So with that, Rob, let's turn it over for questions.

那麼，羅布，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Jason Gursky, Citigroup.

（操作員指示）花旗集團 Jason Gursky。

Dirkson, can you maybe walk us through what you view to be the risks and opportunities around your guidance in 2025. You kind of went out of your way to suggest that this is your initial guidance and these are kind of the minimums that you expect to achieve. So I'm just kind of curious what you think the risks and opportunities are.

德克森，您能否向我們介紹一下您認為 2025 年指導方針中存在的風險和機會。您不遺餘力地表明這是您的初步指導，而且這是您希望實現的最低標準。所以我只是有點好奇您認為風險和機會是什麼。

Thanks for the question, Jason. And yeah, I could pick up on that correctly. So look, I know everyone is just getting to know us as a management team. This is just the third time we're reporting as a public company, but we don't like to share numbers with anyone, and we view all of the participants on the call as our partners that we believe we can't meet or exceed.

謝謝你的提問，傑森。是的，我能正確理解這一點。所以，我知道每個人都剛開始了解我們這個管理團隊。這只是我們作為上市公司第三次報告，但我們不想與任何人分享數字，我們將電話會議中的所有參與者視為我們的合作夥伴，我們認為我們無法達到或超越他們。

And I guess I'd say to you this way. I think our initial guidance that we came out with for EBITDA for the year was $132 million to $134 million. It came back the next quarter, and we said $134 million to $136 million. This guidance for 2024, and we'll get to 2025 in a second, at $143 million includes Applied Avionics, which I'll do some homework for folks who haven't done it yet.

我想我會這樣告訴你。我認為，我們最初對今年 EBITDA 給出的預期是 1.32 億至 1.34 億美元。到了下個季度，數字又回來了，我們說是 1.34 億到 1.36 億美元。這是 2024 年的指導價格，我們馬上就會看到 2025 年的價格，為 1.43 億美元，其中包括應用航空電子，我會為那些還沒有做功課的人做一些功課。

If you look at the pro forma financials, you'll see the first six months, sales were $22 million. We told everyone for the year, it would be $40 million. So therefore, the second half of the year is $18 million. So we've owned it for four months which is about $12 million of revenues and the 50% EBITDA margins at $6 million. If you take $143 million minus $6 million you had $137 million, we have just guided higher than the high end of what we told you previously. So that's our history to date.

如果你看一下預測財務報表，你會發現前六個月的銷售額為 2,200 萬美元。我們告訴大家，今年的收入將達到 4,000 萬美元。因此，下半年的收入是 1800 萬美元。我們持有該公司四個月的時間，營收約 1,200 萬美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 50%，為 600 萬美元。如果將 1.43 億美元減去 600 萬美元，則得到 1.37 億美元，我們所指導的金額高於我們之前告訴您的最高金額。這就是我們迄今為止的歷史。

And now let's talk about 2025. It is our initial guidance and as I said on the call. Most folks don't go this early, right? Normally, folks -- you only be hearing from us about 2025 until March of next year when we report earnings. We didn't think it was appropriate to wait that long to share with you guys. So what's in the guide?

現在我們來談談 2025 年。這是我們的初步指導，正如我在電話中所說的那樣。大多數人不會這麼早去，對吧？通常情況下，朋友們——直到明年 3 月我們報告收益時，您才會聽到我們關於 2025 年的消息。我們認為等待這麼長時間才與你們分享是不合適的。那麼指南裡有什麼內容呢？

Everybody knows that the commercial OEM stock part of the business is challenged. Between Boeing strikes and challenges within their supply chain, Airbus challenges within their supply chain, et cetera, Textron striking.

大家都知道，商業 OEM 庫存部分業務面臨挑戰。波音公司罷工及其供應鏈面臨的挑戰、空中巴士供應鏈面臨的挑戰等等，還有德事隆公司的罷工。

The way we think about the guide for 2025 is -- there is an impact to us. But as you guys know, Boeing sales to us $12 million roughly a year, half of that OEM. So you're talking $6 million, small impact. So I don't see a lot of risk to our numbers and our guide for 2025 on the OE commercial side.

我們對 2025 年指南的看法是——它對我們是有影響的。但正如你們所知，波音公司每年向我們的銷售額約為 1,200 萬美元，佔該 OEM 的一半。所以你說的 600 萬美元，影響很小。因此，我認為我們的 2025 年 OE 商業方面的數位和指南不會面臨太大風險。

On the aftermarket side, given it's November, and we're talking about the results through 2025, we are thinking about it cautiously. So I'd say this way, we're cautiously optimistic. So high single digits feels about right for us now given, as you guys know, our pricing leverage what we expect to happen with volumes given the OEM challenge producing aircraft. We do see strong volume, strong backlog on that side of the business. So I'm comfortable -- actually extremely comfortable on the commercial aftermarket.

在售後市場方面，考慮到現在是 11 月，我們正在討論到 2025 年的結果，因此我們正在謹慎考慮。因此我想說，我們對此持謹慎樂觀的態度。所以現在高個位數對我們來說是合適的，因為正如你們所知，考慮到 OEM 生產飛機的挑戰，我們的定價槓桿作用可以影響我們預期的產量。我們確實看到該業務的銷售量和積壓訂單量強勁。因此，我對商業售後市場感到非常滿意——實際上，非常滿意。

In terms of defense, which we share every time is choppy, the good news is, we're starting the year with solid, solid backlog. Even though we see deliveries picking up more in the second into the last half of 2025. So a little bit more choppy in the first quarter of 2025, feel really, really good about that.

在國防方面，我們每次分享都遇到困難，好消息是，我們以穩固的積壓訂單開始了新的一年。儘管我們預計 2025 年下半年交付量將進一步增加。因此，2025 年第一季的情況會稍微波動一些，但感覺真的非常好。

So other than some black swan event, we feel really, really good about what we're sharing with folks. Hopefully, I answered your question in there somewhere, Jason.

因此，除了一些黑天鵝事件外，我們對與大家分享的內容感到非常非常滿意。希望我能回答你的問題，傑森。

Yeah. No, I appreciate that. That's helpful. And then maybe just one quick follow-up. Glenn, for you on the cash flow guidance for 2025 and the 125% conversion free cash flow to net income. Can you maybe just walk through some of the drivers of that? And maybe talk a little bit about working capital and just kind of what the source of the high conversion relative to net income?

是的。不，我很感激。這很有幫助。然後可能只需要一次快速的跟進。格倫，為您介紹 2025 年的現金流指導以及 125% 的自由現金流轉化為淨收入。您能否簡單介紹一下其中的一些驅動因素？也許可以稍微談論一下營運資本以及相對於淨收入的高轉換率的來源是什麼？

Sure. Well, obviously, let's start with EBITDA right? We don't expect a significant use in working capital for 2025. And we expect inventory leveling out and receivables should be up because of the higher sales. We gave you the interest, so -- and capital expenditures. So nothing significant. And as Dirkson said, we will be -- we should be above 125%.

當然。嗯，顯然，我們從 EBITDA 開始，對吧？我們預計 2025 年營運資金的使用不會大幅增加。我們預計，由於銷售額增加，庫存將趨於平穩，應收帳款也將上升。我們給了你利息，所以──還有資本支出。因此沒有什麼重大意義。正如德克森所說，我們的成長率應該超過 125%。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, there are no further questions. I'd like to turn the floor back to Dirkson Charles for closing remarks.

（操作員指示）目前，沒有其他問題。我想請 Dirkson Charles 作最後發言。

You guys are easy today. No, thanks for taking the time hearing our story. Actually, Rob, I think I need to hold off.

你們今天很輕鬆。不，感謝您花時間聽我們的故事。實際上，羅布，我想我需要忍一下。

I was just going to say we just have some more analysts that just came into queue.

我剛才想說的是，我們剛剛又有一些分析師加入排隊。

And I guess, it's not that easy.

我想，事情沒那麼容易。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Yeah, it might have been my mistake but congratulations on a good quarter in providing the '25 guide. So maybe let's start off on the quarter, if that's okay. Just commercial aftermarket pro forma up 19% sequentially up 16%. What drove that versus peers maybe 1,000 bps below that? And how much did Applied contribute?

是的，這可能是我的錯誤，但祝賀您在提供'25 指南方面取得了良好的成績。因此，如果可以的話，我們可以從本季開始。商業售後市場預計成長19%，季增16%。與其他同行相比，可能低了 1,000 個基點，是什麼原因導致這一水準？應用材料公司貢獻了多少？

So we don't talk specifically about one business unit over another in terms of contribution because the numbers we're sharing is on a pro forma basis. So -- but it's really Sheila, it's across all the platforms. It's actually one of the first things we look at. And there isn't a platform that wasn't up quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year because even quarter-over-quarter, we were up 16% in commercial aftermarket.

因此，我們不會具體談論某個業務部門在貢獻方面相對於另一個業務部門的差異，因為我們分享的數字是形式上的。所以 — — 但它確實是 Sheila，它遍布所有平台。這實際上是我們首先要考慮的事情之一。而且沒有一個平台不是環比成長、環比成長的，因為即使是環比成長，我們的商業售後市場也成長了 16%。

So first, its market share. It's new product introduction and it's just good performance, executing on a value driver. So that's what's driving it. We really feel good about it, which is going back to Jason's question about the 9% into 2025.

首先是它的市場佔有率。這是新產品的推出，而且性能良好，能夠發揮價值驅動作用。這就是推動它的原因。我們對此確實感覺很好，這又回到了傑森關於 2025 年 9% 的問題。

We -- I think on the last call, I said it looks like blue skies and my teammates in the room here looked at me like, wow. But the commercial aftermarket really, really feels good to us, Sheila.

我們——我想在最後一次通話中，我說它看起來像藍天，房間裡的隊友們看著我，就像說，哇。但是商業售後市場確實讓我們感覺很好，希拉。

Understood. That makes sense. And then maybe just on the '25 guide. I just want to make sure we have it correctly here because 70% of your business is guided commercial OEM aftermarket guided to grow high single digits and then military which is 15%, let's say, growing high teens.

明白了。這很有道理。然後可能只是在’25 指南上。我只是想確保我們在這裡理解正確，因為你們 70% 的業務是在商業 OEM 售後市場指導下以高個位數增長，然後是軍事業務，即 15%，比方說，以高十幾歲的速度增長。

How do you think about that total mid-teens organic growth essentially that you have for '25? What are we missing?

您如何看待 25 年整體中段有機成長率？我們遺漏了什麼？

What are you missing?

您想念什麼？

Just the calculation. It just seems like most of your business is growing high single digits.

只是計算。看起來你們的大部分業務都以個位數高速成長。

That's correct. So high single digits I'll say this way 9%, 10%, high single, low double. And on the military side, it's really, really strong, if I could say it that way. So you're not missing anything other than the fact that we want to make sure, as we've learned from speaking to a number of our partners in this call that we don't push the envelope hard in terms of giving guidance.

沒錯。所以高個位數我會這樣說 9%，10%，高單數，低雙數。從軍事方面來看，如果我可以這樣說的話，它真的非常強大。因此，您不會錯過任何其他事實，除了我們想確保這一點之外，正如我們在這次電話會議中與許多合作夥伴交談時了解到的那樣，我們不會過度追求指導方面的極限。

So we're going to be up 14% in total year-over-year on a pro forma basis, but we feel really good about it. So -- your math is right. Oh, by the way, the non-aviation is actually down year-over-year. So that could be a piece of the missing math for you.

因此，以預期計算，我們的總銷售額將比去年同期成長 14%，但我們對此感到非常滿意。所以——你的計算是正確的。哦，順便說一下，非航空業實際上是同比下降的。所以這可能是你缺少的一塊數學知識。

Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense. Okay. Great. And then maybe just while I have you guys, for the quarter, as we think about the Q4 exit rate, the guidance implies 2024 exits with 36% margins in Q4 versus even about 30 bps above that year-to-date. What drives that Q-o-Q deceleration?

是的，這很有道理。這很有道理。好的。偉大的。然後也許就在我和你們討論這個季度的時候，當我們考慮第四季度的退出率時，該指引意味著 2024 年的退出率在第四季度為 36%，而今年迄今為止的利潤率甚至高出約 30 個基點。是什麼導致了季度環比成長放緩？

I hate using this word because I think it's a four-letter word, but there's some mix in there because defense is going to be a greater. You see it's growing faster. While we make good money, the margins on the commercial side of the business is higher. So that's a piece of it.

我不喜歡使用這個詞，因為我認為它是一個四個字母的詞，但其中有一些混合，因為防守將會更大。你看它成長得更快。雖然我們賺了很多錢，但商業方面的利潤更高。這就是其中的一部分。

We also -- as we discussed, we do have a small impact on the commercial OE side of the business. We got the same love letters that everybody got across the industry from Boeing and Textron when they were on strike, stop shipment, hold all that stuff moving to the right.

正如我們所討論的，我們確實對業務的商業 OE 方面產生了一點影響。我們收到了波音公司和德事隆罷工時發給整個產業的同樣的情書，停止出貨，阻止所有貨物向右移動。

And again, commercial is higher margin than defense. So we have -- I'll give you a number, approximately $3-ish million of revenues that has moved to the right because of those love letters we got from the OEMs. That's part of it.

再說一次，商業利潤比國防利潤高。所以我們有—我給你一個數字，大約有 300 萬美元的收入，由於我們從 OEM 收到的那些情書，這些收入已經向右移動。這是其中的一部分。

Plus the fourth quarter for us, I think it's a little bit different than most public companies in that, like I said earlier, 13 weeks is 13 weeks, and it really doesn't matter in the long-term. So we'll get the phone calls from our customers saying, can you move it into January because we want to manage our balance sheet and that -- and it's usually commercial aftermarket parts that happens with a lot. So we have factored some of that into how we think about the fourth quarter.

另外，對我們來說，第四季與大多數上市公司略有不同，就像我之前說的，13 週就是 13 週，從長期來看這並不重要。因此，我們會接到客戶的電話，問他們能否將其移至一月份，因為我們要管理我們的資產負債表，而且通常是商業售後零件方面的問題。因此，我們在考慮第四季度時已將其中的一些因素考慮在內。

Mr. Charles, I'll turn the floor back over to you for any further remarks.

查爾斯先生，我將把發言權交還給您，以便您發表進一步的評論。

Okay. I was going to say it's going to be an easy call until Sheila dialed in. But no, thanks, everyone, for taking the time to join us on the call. Look forward to speaking again, I guess, in late March, you have our guide for 2025. It's our initial guide, as we said.

好的。我本來想說這會是一次輕鬆的通話，但希拉撥通了電話。但是，感謝大家抽出時間參加我們的電話會議。我期待著再次交談，我想，在三月下旬，你就會有我們的 2025 年指南。正如我們所說，這是我們的初步指南。

And most importantly, I truly, truly want to thank all of my mates, all 1,500 now of them across the group because without you guys, none of this happens. So thanks to everyone participating, and thank you to our colleagues.

最重要的是，我真心實意要感謝我所有的夥伴，現在整個團隊共有 1,500 位夥伴，因為沒有你們，這一切都不會發生。感謝所有參與者，也感謝我們的同事。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路了。