Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call and webcast. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Cheniere Energy 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁蘭迪·巴蒂亞 (Randy Bhatia)。先生，請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com. Joining me this morning are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO; Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Zach Davis, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cheniere 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天電話會議的幻燈片演示和網路直播可在 cheniere.com 上找到。今天早上與我一起參加的還有 Cheniere 總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco； Anatol Feygin，執行副總裁兼首席商務官；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Zach Davis。

Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide two of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒所有聽眾，我們的評論，包括對您的問題的回答，可能包含前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與這些陳述中描述的結果有重大差異。我們簡報的第二張投影片討論了這些前瞻性陳述及其相關風險。

In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix of the slide presentation.

此外，我們可能會引用某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如合併調整後 EBITDA 和可分配現金流量。在投影片簡報的附錄中可以找到這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳。

As part of our discussion of Cheniere's results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners LP or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc.

作為我們對 Cheniere 業績討論的一部分，今天的電話會議還可能包括 Cheniere Energy Partners LP 或 CQP 的部分財務資訊和績效。我們無意將 CQP 的結果與 Cheniere Energy, Inc. 的結果區分開來。

The call agenda is shown on slide three. Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights. Anatol will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach will review our financial results and 2025 guidance. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A.

通話議程請見第三張投影片。傑克將首先介紹營運和財務亮點。隨後，Anatol 將提供有關液化天然氣市場的最新情況，Zach 將回顧我們的財務表現和 2025 年指引。準備好發言後，我們將開始問答環節。

I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO.

現在我將電話轉給 Cheniere 總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco。

Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our outstanding results from the fourth quarter and full year 2024 and discuss our vision for what I expect to be an exciting and rewarding year for Cheniere in 2025.

謝謝你，蘭迪。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧第四季度和 2024 年全年的出色業績，並討論我們對 2025 年 Cheniere 令人興奮和收穫頗豐的一年的願景。

In 2024, we once again generated excellent results across the key strategic priorities of the company, driven by our uncompromising ambition to consistently deliver sustainable long-term value to our stakeholders. These results underpinned by Cheniere's safety-first culture operational excellence, customer focus and financial discipline, further distinguish Cheniere in the market and reinforce a reputation as best in class across our entire platform.

2024 年，我們再次在公司的關鍵策略重點上取得了優異的成績，這得益於我們始終如一地為利害關係人提供可持續的長期價值的堅定決心。這些業績以切尼爾安全第一的文化、卓越的營運、客戶關注和財務紀律為基礎，進一步使切尼爾在市場上脫穎而出，鞏固了其在整個平台上的一流聲譽。

We take these successes in 2025 with the wind at our backs as a global market call for new LNG capacity is ringing loud and clear. Energy security in general and natural gas, in particular, have been prioritized over the last several years, accelerated by geopolitical conflicts in multiple theaters that have refocused government on the long-term importance of natural gas. Throughout these conflicts, the criticality of a long-term energy supply portfolio that is diverse, secure and perhaps most of all, reliable has been laid there, and Cheniere's LNG stands as an ideal and powerful solution.

隨著全球市場對新的液化天然氣產能的需求日益強烈，我們將在 2025 年順風順水地取得這些成功。過去幾年來，能源安全，尤其是天然氣安全一直受到重視，而多個戰場的地緣政治衝突也加速了這一進程，使政府重新關注天然氣的長期重要性。在這些衝突中，多樣化、安全、或許最重要的是可靠的長期能源供應組合的重要性已經凸顯，而切尼爾的液化天然氣就是理想而有力的解決方案。

The United States has a significant opportunity to provide that reliable and secure energy supply the world over, and we now have a more constructive backdrop for the development and operation of large-scale energy infrastructure in this country. We are engaged with the new administration in Washington and are optimistic for a more clear, transparent and predictable permitting and regulatory regime. So we can continue to safely build and operate more LNG capacity the world so clearly needs for decades to come.

美國擁有向全世界提供可靠、安全的能源供應的重要機會，而且我們現在擁有在該國開發和運營大型能源基礎設施的更具建設性的背景。我們與華盛頓的新政府保持密切聯繫，並對更清晰、透明和可預測的許可和監管制度充滿信心。因此，我們可以繼續安全地建造和營運未來幾十年世界亟需的更多液化天然氣產能。

Please turn to slide five, where I'll highlight our key accomplishments and results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 as well as introduce our financial guidance for 2025. In the fourth quarter, we generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, bringing our total for the full year to $6.155 billion.

請翻到第五張投影片，我將重點介紹我們在 2024 年第四季和全年的主要成就和業績，並介紹我們 2025 年的財務指導。第四季度，我們的綜合調整後 EBITDA 約為 16 億美元，全年總額達 61.55 億美元。

We generated distributable cash flow of approximately $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter and approximately $3.73 billion for the full year. Net income in the fourth quarter totaled approximately $1 billion and approximately $3.3 billion for the year. Full year EBITDA landed in the middle of our recently increased guidance range and $155 million above the high end of the original range provided a year ago.

我們在第四季產生了約 11 億美元的可分配現金流，全年產生了約 37.3 億美元的可分配現金流。第四季淨收入總計約 10 億美元，全年淨收入約 33 億美元。全年 EBITDA 處於我們最近增加的指導範圍的中間位置，比一年前提供的原始範圍的高點高出 1.55 億美元。

On DCF, we delivered results above the most recent range and $300 million above the high end of the original range. These outstanding financial results are once again enabled by the relentless focus on performance that I'm proud to share with my 1,700 Cheniere colleagues around the world. We produced a record amount of LNG in 2024, approximately 45 million tons, which is over 10% of the global LNG supply in the year.

在直流現金流折現法 (DCF) 上，我們的結果高於最新範圍，並且比原始範圍的高端高出 3 億美元。這些出色的財務表現再次得益於對業績的不懈關注，我很自豪地與全球 1,700 名 Cheniere 同事分享這一業績。2024年，我們的液化天然氣產量創下了歷史新高，約4,500萬噸，佔當年全球液化天然氣供應量的10%以上。

And we did so while successfully completing turnarounds at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi and most importantly, we once again delivered a top quintile safety performance. In 2024, SPL achieved 11 million labor hours and Corpus Christi achieved 7 million labor hours without a single lost time incident. All of our stakeholders should take as much pride in these results as I do as the Cheniere production teams continue to set the safety and reliability standard in our industry.

我們在薩賓帕斯和科珀斯克里斯蒂成功完成扭轉局面的同時，最重要的是，我們再次實現了最高五分之一的安全表現。2024 年，SPL 實現了 1,100 萬個工時，Corpus Christi 實現了 700 萬個工時，沒有發生一起工時損失事故。我們所有的利害關係人應該像我一樣對這些成果感到自豪，因為切尼爾生產團隊將繼續為我們行業樹立安全和可靠性標準。

During 2024, Zach and his team continued to make excellent progress on our comprehensive capital allocation plan, deploying over $1.5 billion towards our Stage 3 project, paying down $800 million of long-term debt and buying back almost 14 million shares for approximately $2.25 billion. In addition, we increased the dividend by 15% to $2 per share annualized and announced another $4 billion share repurchase authorization last summer, well ahead of schedule.

2024 年，扎克和他的團隊繼續在我們的綜合資本配置計劃上取得出色進展，向我們的第三階段項目部署了超過 15 億美元，償還了 8 億美元的長期債務，並以約 22.5 億美元的價格回購了近 1400 萬股股票。此外，我們將股息提高了 15%，達到每股年化股息 2 美元，並在去年夏天宣布了另外 40 億美元的股票回購授權，這遠遠提前於計劃。

Looking ahead to the full year 2025, I'm pleased to introduce our 2025 financial guidance of $6.5 billion to $7 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion in distributable cash flow and $3.25 to $3.35 in per unit distributions at CQP. These ranges reinforced at 2024 was a trough year for EBITDA and DCF as we expect year-over-year growth in 2025 as Corpus Christi Stage 3 begins to enter operations. The guidance range contemplates the first three trains of Corpus Christi Stage 3 start-up production this year. Zach will have more to say on guidance in a few minutes, but we are committed to delivering results within these ranges for 2025.

展望 2025 年全年，我很高興地介紹我們 2025 年的財務指導，即合併調整後 EBITDA 為 65 億美元至 70 億美元，可分配現金流為 41 億美元至 46 億美元，CQP 每單位分配為 3.25 美元至 3.35 美元。這些範圍在 2024 年得到加強，因為這是 EBITDA 和 DCF 的低谷年，因為我們預計隨著 Corpus Christi 第三階段開始投入運營，2025 年將實現同比增長。該指導範圍考慮了今年科珀斯克里斯蒂第三階段的前三列列車的啟動生產。扎克將在幾分鐘內就指導方針發表更多看法，但我們致力於在 2025 年實現這些範圍內的成果。

We made significant progress on our growth during 2024 as demonstrated from our progress on our Corpus Christi Stage 3 project. Bechtel continues to execute construction and commissioning on an accelerated schedule. At year-end, total completion stood at 77.2% with the construction across the entire project at over 42% complete. We were proud to achieve first LNG back in December, an important milestone that helps reinforce our forecast time line for Train 1 to reach substantial completion by the end of the first quarter. I'll discuss Stage 3 more on the next slide.

從 Corpus Christi 第三階段專案的進展就可以看出，我們在 2024 年的成長方面取得了重大進展。貝克泰爾公司繼續按加快進度執行建設和調試工作。截至年底，總完成度達77.2%，整個工程建設完成度超過42%。我們很自豪在 12 月實現了第一批液化天然氣的生產，這是一個重要的里程碑，有助於鞏固我們預測的時間表，即第 1 號生產線將在第一季末基本完工。我將在下一張投影片中進一步討論第 3 階段。

With regard to Corpus Christi Trains 8 and 9, the project is nearing the final regulatory approvals required in order to reach FID, and we remain on track to reach FID on this brownfield expansion this year. We recently placed orders for the long lead time items to ensure we can continue our construction efforts without delays upon receipt of the remaining necessary permits.

關於科珀斯克里斯蒂 8 號和 9 號列車，該項目即將獲得最終投資決定所需的最終監管部門批准，我們仍有望在今年獲得該棕地擴建項目的最終投資決定。我們最近訂購了一些交貨週期較長的物品，以確保在收到剩餘的必要許可證後，我們能夠毫不拖延地繼續我們的施工工作。

Please turn to slide six, where I'll provide more in-depth look at our progress on Corpus Christi Stage 3. We're working closely together with Bechtel to move Stage 3 into operations. Train 1 commissioning continues to progress to plan, and I'm pleased to share that this week, we completed production of our first full cargo of LNG from the Stage 3 project.

請翻到第六張投影片，我將更深入地介紹我們在 Corpus Christi 第三階段的進展。我們正在與 Bechtel 密切合作，推動第三階段投入營運。一號生產線的調試繼續按計劃進行，我很高興地告訴大家，本週，我們完成了第三階段專案第一批液化天然氣的生產。

Over 5,000 personnel are working to safely advance the project towards completion, and we are beginning to turn a significant number of systems over to commissioning and start-up teams on Train 2. In addition, all equipment and materials on trains one through seven have been procured and delivered at this point, mitigating Stage 3 risks of import tariffs. We continue to target the first three trains to ramp up production by year-end of this year, and all seven trains to be substantially complete by the end of 2026.

超過 5,000 名人員正在努力安全地推進專案直至完工，我們開始將大量系統移交給 Train 2 的調試和啟動團隊。此外，目前一至七號列車上的所有設備和材料均已完成採購和交付，從而緩解了第三階段的進口關稅風險。我們的目標仍然是使前三條生產線在今年年底前達到產量，並使所有七條生產線在 2026 年底前基本完成。

Please turn to slide seven, where I'll highlight our strategic priorities for 2025. First and foremost, we expect to reinforce our track record of best-in-class operations in 2025. We will continue to operate our business the right way, the safe way especially as we construct and commission Corpus Christi Stage 3. Our hard-earned reputation in the market as a safe and reliable operator is a significant competitive advantage, one which will serve all of us well for the long term and it is vital we maintain that advantage.

請翻到第七張投影片，我將在這裡重點介紹我們 2025 年的策略重點。首先，我們希望在 2025 年鞏固我們一流營運的記錄。我們將繼續以正確、安全的方式經營我們的業務，特別是在我們建造和調試 Corpus Christi 第三階段時。我們作為安全可靠的營運商在市場上贏得了來之不易的聲譽，這是一項重要的競爭優勢，這將使我們所有人長期受益，而且保持這一優勢至關重要。

Second, we are committed to getting Corpus Christi mid-scale Trains 8 and 9 to FID. As I just mentioned, we look forward to receiving the remaining regulatory permits in the near future and are taking the steps necessary in preparation for an FID later this year. During 2024 we locked in approximately $0.5 billion of long lead time equipment and other costs under limited notices to proceed with Bechtel related to Trains 8 and 9, helping to ensure the project can maximize efficiencies on both cost and schedule.

其次，我們致力於讓科珀斯克里斯蒂中型列車 8 號和 9 號達到 FID 標準。正如我剛才提到的，我們期待在不久的將來實現剩餘的監管許可，並且正在採取必要的措施，為今年稍後的最終投資決定做準備。2024 年，我們在有限通知期內鎖定了約 5 億美元的長期交付週期設備和其他成本，以推進與 Bechtel 相關的 8 號和 9 號列車項目，幫助確保項目能夠最大限度地提高成本和進度效率。

Finally, we intend to strategically pursue permits to ensure the long-term growth optionality of our Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi footprints. As I said at the beginning of my remarks, we are actively engaged with the new administration and are very encouraged by the early action and stated policy goals prioritizing a clear, transparent and durable permitting process.

最後，我們打算策略性地尋求許可證，以確保我們在薩賓帕斯和科珀斯克里斯蒂的足跡的長期成長選擇性。正如我在演講開始時所說，我們積極參與新政府的工作，並對早期行動和既定政策目標感到非常鼓舞，這些目標優先考慮清晰、透明和持久的許可程序。

Given that improvement in the permitting environment for LNG projects here in the US which is a stark contrast from just a few months ago, we have an opportunity and a strategic imperative to secure permits for significant growth at both Sabine and Corpus in order to derisk the permitting requirements of future project development with line of sight to a total capacity of over 90 million tonnes per annum.

鑑於美國液化天然氣項目許可環境的改善與幾個月前形成鮮明對比，我們有機會和策略需要獲得薩賓和科珀斯天然氣項目大幅增長的許可，以降低未來項目開發的許可要求，使總產能達到每年9000萬噸以上。

We will, of course, always adhere to our disciplined capital investment parameters so that any incremental capacity is likely to be built under a phased approach while optimizing our brownfield advantages at both facilities. But while we have this window, we intend to aggressively pursue permits at both sites and give ourselves a path to potentially more than double our current operating capacity once permits and accretive economics online. I look forward to updating you all on these efforts in the coming quarters as they develop.

當然，我們將始終堅持嚴格的資本投資參數，以便任何增量產能都可能分階段建設，同時優化我們兩個設施的棕地優勢。但是，儘管我們有這個機會，我們打算積極爭取在兩個地點獲得許可證，並且一旦獲得許可證和增值經濟上線，我們就可以使我們目前的運營能力增加一倍以上。我期待在未來幾季向大家通報這些工作的進展。

With that, I'll now hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.

說完這些，我現在將話題交給阿納托爾 (Anatol) 來討論液化天然氣市場。再次感謝大家對 Cheniere 的持續支持。

Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to a discussion of the markets, I'd like to acknowledge the constructive progress made in recent weeks towards restoring peace between Russia and Ukraine. While it remains a fluid situation and the peaceful solution in the near term is not a given, we're encouraged by the ongoing talks and hope resolution can be achieved soon. The Russia-Ukraine conflict over the last three years has had a tremendous impact on global energy markets, not only altering supply-demand balances but also serving as a powerful reminder of the criticality of a secure and reliable energy supply portfolio.

謝謝，傑克，大家早安。在我們討論市場之前，我想先承認俄羅斯和烏克蘭在最近幾週恢復和平方面取得了建設性進展。儘管局勢仍不明朗，短期內也無法實現和平解決，但正在進行的談判令我們感到鼓舞，並希望能夠盡快達成解決方案。過去三年的俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突對全球能源市場產生了巨大影響，不僅改變了供需平衡，而且有力地提醒人們安全可靠的能源供應組合的重要性。

It has once again highlighted the vital role of natural gas plays in the everyday lives of people and economies around the world. The resolution to the year's long war would likely result in the restoration of incremental Russian gas volumes into Europe over time. We believe this would aid a rebalancing in the gas market and help support a more affordable and stable pricing environment conducive to long-term natural gas and LNG demand growth.

這再次凸顯了天然氣在世界各地人民日常生活和經濟中所扮演的重要角色。這場長達一年的戰爭的解決方案很可能會導致俄羅斯逐漸恢復到歐洲輸送天然氣。我們相信這將有助於天然氣市場的重新平衡，並有助於支持更實惠、更穩定的價格環境，有利於長期天然氣和液化天然氣需求成長。

Now please turn to slide nine. We'll start with a look back at '24. The market remained relatively tight throughout last year due to limited growth in supply capacity coupled with strong demand outside of Europe and continued geopolitical tensions throughout the year. Global LNG trade grew by less than 4 million tons year-on-year as project delays, Russian sanctions and a lull in new projects coming online, a limited supply growth.

現在請翻到第九張投影片。我們先來回顧一下 24 年。由於供應能力成長有限，加上歐洲以外地區需求強勁，全年地緣政治緊張局勢持續，導致去年全年市場仍相對緊張。由於項目延遲、俄羅斯制裁以及新項目上線放緩，供應增長有限，全球液化天然氣貿易量年增不到 400 萬噸。

While new projects started up in Russia, the US, Mexico and the Congo, these projects contributed very little volume to the market due to starting up late in the year or in the case of Russia, sanctions preventing cargoes from reaching markets. As a result, the increased LNG consumption in Asia as well as other markets such as Egypt and Brazil were satisfied at the expense of Europe for most of the year. These conditions continue to support spot prices, which remained elevated, albeit thankfully lower than the unprecedented levels of '22 as the post prices rebalancing gradually continued.

雖然俄羅斯、美國、墨西哥和剛果都啟動了新項目，但由於啟動時間較晚，或俄羅斯受到製裁阻礙貨物進入市場，這些項目對市場的貢獻很小。結果，在一年中的大部分時間裡，亞洲以及埃及和巴西等其他市場的液化天然氣消費量成長都是以犧牲歐洲為代價來滿足的。這些條件繼續支撐現貨價格，現貨價格仍維持在高位，但幸運的是，由於價格重新平衡後逐漸持續，現貨價格低於22年的前所未有的水平。

TTF monthly settlement prices averaged around $10.90 an MMBtu in '24, over 20% lower than the '23 average of about $13.70 an M. Similarly, the settlement price for JKM averaged $11.80 in MMBtu in '24, over 25% lower versus '23. Average Henry Hub settlement price was 17% lower in '24 compared to '23. However, starting in late '24, cold weather in Europe, coupled with the expiry of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine at the end of '24 caused the rebound in European spot prices with a narrowing and later reversal of the JKM TTF spread in order to attract cargoes into Europe.

1924 年 TTF 每月結算價格平均約為每百萬英熱單位 10.90 美元，比 1923 年約每百萬英熱單位 13.70 美元的平均價格低 20% 以上。2024 年亨利中心平均結算價格比 2023 年低 17%。然而，自24年末開始，歐洲寒冷天氣加上俄羅斯與烏克蘭天然氣過境協議於24年底到期，導致歐洲現貨價格反彈，JKM TTF價差收窄並隨後逆轉，以吸引貨物進入歐洲。

Let's turn to the next page and address this in further detail. In '24 Europe's imports declined 19% year-over-year, down over approximately 22 million tons due to sluggish growth in the industrial sector, lower gas-fired power generation and competing demand for volume outside the region. However, Europe's fundamentals improved in the second half of the year as regional balances reversed course, especially in the fourth quarter when Europe turned tighter and mid winter weather and the expiry date for Russian natural gas flows through Ukraine eared.

讓我們翻到下一頁並更詳細地討論這個問題。2024年，歐洲進口量較去年同期下降19%，下降約2,200萬噸，原因是工業部門成長緩慢、燃氣發電量下降以及該地區以外的需求競爭。然而，隨著區域平衡的逆轉，歐洲的基本面在下半年有所改善，尤其是在第四季度，歐洲變得更加緊張，冬季天氣加劇，俄羅斯天然氣通過烏克蘭的到期日臨近。

While gas-fired generation fell 10% year-on-year, a drop in renewables output in the fourth quarter, along with persistent cold temperatures resulted in more gas-fired generation, which rose 15% year-on-year during the fourth quarter. This accelerated gas withdrawals from underground storage, bringing inventory levels below the pre-war 5-year average and roughly 17 bcm below the comparable period last year. This decline is equivalent to approximately 180 cargoes of LNG and is likely the reason we saw a swift call on cargoes into Europe towards the end of the year and the beginning of '25.

雖然燃氣發電量較去年同期下降了 10%，但第四季再生能源產量下降，加上持續的寒冷天氣，導致燃氣發電量增加，第四季燃氣發電量比去年同期增加了 15%。這加速了地下儲存的天然氣開採，導致庫存水準低於戰前五年的平均水平，比去年同期低約 170 億立方公尺。這一降幅相當於約 180 批液化天然氣貨物，這可能是我們在年底和 25 年初看到歐洲貨物需求迅速增加的原因。

We believe this call is likely to continue through most of this year as LNG will be critical in mitigating the loss of Russian gas in Europe and helping replenish inventories for next winter in the absence of other incremental supply alternatives.

我們認為這種呼聲可能會持續到今年大部分時間，因為在沒有其他增量供應替代品的情況下，液化天然氣對於減輕歐洲俄羅斯天然氣的損失以及幫助補充明年冬季的庫存至關重要。

While Europe has had a tale of two halves in '24, Asia consistently experienced growth across its markets for most of the year. Asia added over 20 million tons of LNG imports up 8% year-on-year to 283 million tons. China was the most significant contributor to this growth, increasing 10% to 78 million tons not quite back to its prewar peak, but very close. China's growth in LNG imports came as the country's overall gas demand grew roughly 8% across all major sectors including transportation, which reached an estimated 15 million to 16 million tonnes in '24.

儘管歐洲在2024年經歷了兩個半月的起伏，但亞洲市場在全年大部分時間都保持著持續成長。亞洲新增液化天然氣進口量超過2,000萬噸，較去年成長8%，達2.83億噸。中國是這一增長的最大貢獻者，增長了 10%，達到 7800 萬噸，雖然沒有完全恢復到戰前的峰值，但非常接近了。中國液化天然氣進口量成長之際，該國包括交通運輸在內的所有主要產業的整體天然氣需求成長了約8%，2024年預計達到1,500萬至1,600萬噸。

Additionally, as is the case across most of the region, China experienced Heatwaves this past summer, which helped boost power generation from its growing gas fleet which added 19 gigawatts of capacity in '24. This builds on the 10.3 gigawatts that were added in '23 for a current total of 145 gigawatts of installed gas power generation capacity.

此外，與該地區大部分地區的情況一樣，中國今年夏天經歷了熱浪，這有助於促進其不斷增長的天然氣發電量，2024年其天然氣發電量增加了19千兆瓦。這是在 1923 年新增的 10.3 千兆瓦的基礎上，目前天然氣發電裝置總容量達到 145 千兆瓦。

In addition to CCGT capacity, the country installed an incremental 24 million tons per annum of regas capacity, an increase of 20% and an additional 141 Bcf or 4 Bcm of underground storage capacity for an estimated total of 953 Bcf or 27 Bcm as of the end of '24, all aligned with the country's goal to reach peak coal consumption this year, peak carbon emissions by 2030 and grow natural gas to 15% of primary energy.

除了聯合循環燃氣渦輪機產能外，該國還增加了每年2400萬噸的再氣化產能，增幅為20%，並增加了1410億立方英尺或40億立方米的地下儲存容量，截至24年底，預計總量為9530億立方英尺或270億立方米，所有這些都符合該國今年的消費重達峰值

As we've noted on previous calls, we believe that the Asia Pacific region will continue to support LNG demand growth for decades to come, and '24 provides added conviction to that thesis. The region accounted for nearly 45% of gas demand growth in '24, which represents an all-time high globally, growing at a rate of 2.8% year-on-year representing incremental demand of approximately 11 Bcf a day.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們相信亞太地區將在未來幾十年繼續支持液化天然氣需求成長，而‘24’為這一論點提供了更強的信心。該地區佔24年天然氣需求成長的近45%，創下全球歷史新高，年增2.8%，每天的需求增量約110億立方英尺。

Let's move to the next slide. The global gas market has gained significant flexibility with the growth in LNG trade, which plays a key role in balancing the global gas market, evidenced by the avoidance of a severe energy crisis in Europe into '24, and we believe it is likely to remain a key contributor to global energy supply security for decades to come.

我們來看下一張投影片。隨著液化天然氣貿易的成長，全球天然氣市場獲得了顯著的靈活性，這對平衡全球天然氣市場起著關鍵作用，證據是歐洲避免了2024年嚴重的能源危機，我們相信，未來幾十年液化天然氣很可能仍是全球能源供應安全的主要貢獻者。

Throughout 2024, there were numerous and at times compounding factors that impacted the supply and demand of LNG and contributed to sustained elevated pricing in the short end of the curve last year. These include extreme weather events and shortfalls on the supply side. Amid few counterbalancing elements last year, these factors coincided to create major trade deficits in some markets.

在整個 2024 年，有許多因素（有時是複合因素）影響液化天然氣的供需，並導致去年短端價格持續走高。其中包括極端天氣事件和供應方面的短缺。儘管去年存在一些平衡因素，但這些因素共同作用，導致一些市場出現了巨大的貿易逆差。

As I mentioned earlier, the start of new projects in '24 did little to offset the supply deficits resulting from other project delays, system outages and resource maturation just to name a few. Depleting gas resources for LNG in legacy supply areas such as Egypt, Algeria, Trinidad and even Australia have far outweighed gains in other areas such as Argentina, where domestic gas production growth helped reduce the country's imports of LNG last year.

正如我之前提到的，24 年新專案的啟動對於彌補其他專案延遲、系統中斷和資源成熟等造成的供應短缺幾乎沒有作用。埃及、阿爾及利亞、特立尼達島甚至澳洲等傳統供應地區的液化天然氣資源枯竭，遠遠超過了阿根廷等其他地區的成長，去年阿根廷國內天然氣產量的成長幫助減少了液化天然氣的進口量。

And in fact, Australia has taken Train 2 at Northwest Shelf offline due to insufficient resources. We believe examples like these are structurally supportive of demand for LNG supply in the future while the energy security provided by destination flexible LNG further reinforces the prospect of LNG demand growth in general.

事實上，由於資源不足，澳洲已停止了西北大陸棚二號生產線的建設。我們認為，這些例子在結構上支撐了未來液化天然氣供應的需求，而目的地靈活液化天然氣所提供的能源安全進一步加強了液化天然氣需求成長的前景。

The expected growth in the LNG market will require an additional estimated 203 MTPA of LNG supplies in the coming decade. A new supply from Cheniere, both under construction and in development, will not only help meet this demand but also should help ensure improved availability, deliverability and affordability of gas supply globally while offsetting some of the legacy resource depletion and ensuring greater energy security to markets worldwide.

預計未來十年液化天然氣市場將會成長，需要額外增加約 2.03 億噸/年的液化天然氣供應。切尼爾天然氣管道的建造和開發新供應不僅有助於滿足這一需求，而且還將有助於確保提高全球天然氣供應的可用性、可交付性和可負擔性，同時抵消一些遺留的資源枯竭，並確保全球市場的能源安全。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給扎克，來審查我們的財務結果和指導。

Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to review our outstanding fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and key financial accomplishments and to discuss our financial guidance for 2025.

謝謝，阿納托爾，大家早安。我很高興今天能在這裡回顧我們出色的第四季度和 2024 年全年業績和關鍵財務成就，並討論我們 2025 年的財務指導。

Turn to slide 13, please. For the fourth quarter and full year 2024, we generated net income of approximately $977 million and $3.25 billion. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion and $6.155 billion and distributable cash flow of approximately $1 billion and $3.73 billion, respectively. With these results, we have now reported positive net income for the second full fiscal year.

請翻到第 13 張投影片。2024年第四季和全年，我們實現淨收入約9.77億美元和32.5億美元。合併調整後 EBITDA 分別約為 16 億美元和 61.55 億美元，可分配現金流量分別約為 10 億美元和 37.3 億美元。憑藉這些成果，我們現在已經報告了第二個完整財政年度的正淨收入。

Compared to 2023, our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results reflect the moderation of international gas prices as well as a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts and lower contributions from optimization activities, upstream and downstream of our facilities as the extreme market volatility continues to subside since 2022 and 2023. These impacts were partially offset by higher volumes of LNG delivered from our two sites during the year.

與 2023 年相比，我們的第四季度和 2024 年全年業績反映了國際天然氣價格的緩和，以及我們根據長期合約銷售的液化天然氣比例增加，以及由於極端市場波動自 2022 年和 2023 年以來持續消退，我們設施上游和下游的優化活動貢獻減少。這些影響被我們今年兩個站點運送的液化天然氣數量增加部分抵消。

During the fourth quarter and full year, we recognized in income 615 and 2,349 TBtu of physical LNG, which included 605 and 2,325 TBtu from our projects and 10 and 24 TBTU sourced from third parties, respectively. Approximately 92% and 96% of our LNG volumes recognized in the respective periods were sold in relation to term SPA or IPM agreements. While we have many significant achievements to highlight from 2024, I'm particularly proud of the execution on our 2020 Vision capital allocation plan throughout the year.

在第四季度和全年，我們確認了 615 和 2,349 TBtu 實物液化天然氣收入，其中包括來自我們專案的 605 和 2,325 TBtu 以及來自第三方的 10 和 24 TBTU。我們在相應期間確認的液化天然氣銷量中，約有 92% 和 96% 是根據定期 SPA 或 IPM 協議出售的。雖然我們在 2024 年取得了許多重大成就，但我對全年執行 2020 年願景資本配置計畫特別感到自豪。

In 2024, we deployed approximately $5.4 billion towards the key pillars of the plan, shareholder returns, accretive growth and balance sheet management. As of year-end, we have allocated nearly $14 billion of our $20 billion target by 2026 that we intend to surpass as we continue to reduce our share count and enhance our capital returns while retaining financial flexibility to fund accretive growth across our platform, all of which should position us to achieve our target of generating over $20 per share of run rate distributable cash flow for our shareholders.

2024 年，我們將向該計劃的關鍵支柱、股東回報、增值成長和資產負債表管理投入約 54 億美元。截至年底，我們已分配了近 140 億美元，而我們的 2026 年目標為 200 億美元，我們打算超越這一目標，因為我們將繼續減少股份數量並提高資本回報率，同時保持財務靈活性以資助整個平台的增值增長，所有這些都應使我們能夠實現為股東創造每股超過 20 美元的可分配現金流的目標。

During 2024, we repurchased approximately 13.8 million shares for approximately $2.3 billion. Having repurchased over 10% of our outstanding shares since announcing our 2020 Vision plan in September 2022, we are already over halfway to our stated initial target of 200 million shares outstanding. This progress led us to increase our share repurchase authorization last year by $4 billion through 2027, which we are currently working through opportunistically.

2024 年，我們以約 23 億美元回購了約 1,380 萬股。自 2022 年 9 月宣布 2020 年願景計畫以來，我們已回購了超過 10% 的流通股，目前我們已完成最初設定的 2 億股流通股目標的一半以上。這項進展促使我們在去年將股票回購授權增加了 40 億美元，直至 2027 年，目前我們正在伺機實施這項計畫。

We also declared $1.87 per common share in dividends for 2024 and paid over $400 million in dividends during the year. As previously announced with our June capital allocation update, we increased our quarterly dividend by approximately 15% to $2 annualized and intend to follow through with our guidance of 10% dividend growth annually through the end of this decade. We remain committed to our targeted payout ratio of approximately 20% over time, which will enable us to retain the financial flexibility essential to our comprehensive and balanced long-term capital allocation plan. and disciplined self-funded growth objectives.

我們也宣布 2024 年每股普通股的股息為 1.87 美元，並在當年支付了超過 4 億美元的股息。正如我們之前在 6 月資本配置更新中所宣布的那樣，我們將季度股息提高了約 15%，達到年化 2 美元，並打算在本世紀末之前實現每年 10% 的股息成長率。我們將繼續致力於實現約 20% 的目標派息率，這將使我們能夠保持全面均衡的長期資本配置計劃所需的財務靈活性。並嚴格自籌資金的成長目標。

During the fourth quarter and full year, we repaid $350 million and $800 million of outstanding long-term indebtedness respectively. During the year, we fully repaid the SBL 2024 notes and addressed our 2025 maturities across the complex, with only $300 million of principal remaining on the SBL 2025 notes which we plan to repay with cash on hand at maturity in March. During the year, we also issued the inaugural investment-grade bond at Cheniere Energy, Inc. following our blueprint for strategic refinancing, extending our maturity profile and reducing interest expense, all while desecuring and desubordinating our balance sheet.

第四季和全年，我們分別償還了3.5億美元和8億美元的未償長期債務。年內，我們全額償還了 SBL 2024 票據，並償還了整個綜合大樓的 2025 到期票據，SBL 2025 票據僅剩下 3 億美元的本金，我們計劃在 3 月份到期時用手頭的現金償還。本年度，我們還根據策略再融資藍圖為切尼爾能源公司 (Cheniere Energy, Inc.) 發行了首支投資等級債券，延長了我們的期限，降低了利息支出，同時解除了我們資產負債表的抵押和從屬關係。

Looking ahead, you can expect more of this while in the near term, we will continue to focus our debt paydown within the CQP complex in preparation for financing the SPL expansion project. The rating agencies continue to recognize our progress on balance sheet management through our corporate structure in 2024.

展望未來，您可以期待更多這樣的情況，而在短期內，我們將繼續專注於 CQP 綜合體內的債務償還，為 SPL 擴建項目提供融資做準備。2024年，評級機構繼續認可我們透過公司結構在資產負債表管理方面所取得的進展。

Last year, we received our 22nd credit rating upgrade since 2021 and are now investment grade at every Cheniere issuer by all three rating agencies. The continued recognition from the ratings agencies reflects our capital discipline, proven project execution and operational excellence and having developed and structured these projects to have robust credit metrics over the long term.

去年，我們獲得了自 2021 年以來第 22 次信用評級上調，目前，三家評級機構都將我們的每家 Cheniere 發行人評為投資級。評級機構的持續認可反映了我們的資本紀律、經過驗證的專案執行和卓越的運營，以及我們開發和建立這些專案以在長期內擁有強勁的信用指標。

During the fourth quarter and full year, we funded approximately $220 million and $1.5 billion of CapEx on Stage 3, bringing total spend on the project to over $4.5 billion. We also deployed approximately $400 million in 2024 towards future growth and debottlenecking, including procurement for certain equipment for mid-scale Trains 8 and 9 and continued development capital to progress the SBL expansion project.

在第四季和全年，我們為第三階段投入了約 2.2 億美元和 15 億美元的資本支出，使該項目的總支出超過 45 億美元。我們還在 2024 年部署了約 4 億美元用於未來成長和消除瓶頸，包括採購中型列車 8 號和 9 號的某些設備，以及持續的開發資本以推進 SBL 擴建項目。

To date, we have funded over $300 million of the approximately $0.5 billion of costs that Jack mentioned, we locked in for mid-scale Trains 8 and 9 and related infrastructure. With approximately $3 billion in consolidated cash, an ample undrawn revolver and term loan liquidity throughout the Cheniere complex, we expect to continue equity funding in the Stage 3 CapEx while remaining active on our opportunistic buyback program as we continue to manage our cash balances efficiently.

到目前為止，我們已經為傑克提到的約 5 億美元成本中的 3 億美元提供了資金，用於中型列車 8 號和 9 號線及相關基礎設施。憑藉約 30 億美元的綜合現金、充足的未提取循環信用額度和整個 Cheniere 綜合設施的定期貸款流動性，我們預計將繼續在第三階段資本支出中進行股權融資，同時繼續積極實施我們的機會性回購計劃，並繼續有效地管理我們的現金餘額。

Turning now to slide 14, where I will discuss our 2025 guidance and outlook for the year. Today, we are introducing our full year 2025 guidance ranges of $6.5 billion to $7 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion in distributable cash flow and the $3.25 to $3.35 per common unit of distributions from CQP.

現在翻到第 14 張投影片，我將討論我們對 2025 年的指導和展望。今天，我們推出了 2025 年全年指引範圍，即合併調整後 EBITDA 65 億美元至 70 億美元、可分配現金流 41 億美元至 46 億美元以及 CQP 每股普通單位分配 3.25 美元至 3.35 美元。

From 2024 actuals to the midpoint of 2025 guidance, 2025 is up 10%, 17% and 2%, respectively, solidifying 2024 as a trough year with Stage 3 startup driving higher financial performance expectations this year. Consistent with what we discussed on the 3Q call, these changes reflect our production forecast of 47 million to 48 million tons of LNG in 2025, which contemplates our existing 9 train platform, plus our outlook for production from the first three trains at Corpus Christi Stage 3 this year.

從 2024 年的實際情況到 2025 年指引的中點，2025 年分別上漲了 10%、17% 和 2%，鞏固了 2024 年作為低谷年的地位，第三階段的啟動推動了今年更高的財務業績預期。與我們在第三季電話會議上討論的內容一致，這些變化反映了我們對 2025 年液化天然氣產量 4700 萬至 4800 萬噸的預測，該預測考慮了我們現有的 9 條生產線平台，以及我們對今年科珀斯克里斯蒂第三階段前三條生產線的產量預測。

Achieving first LNG in December and first cargo already this month, together with the commissioning of Train 1 tracking on schedule, reinforces our conviction in our forecast of 47 million to 48 million tons of LNG production consistent with the October call. As such, our team has continued to forward sell some of our uncontracted volumes opportunistically. And today, we forecast approximately 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes of unsold capacity for the remainder of 2025.

12 月實現首批液化天然氣生產，本月已完成首批貨物運輸，加上 1 號生產線按計劃投入運行，進一步堅定了我們對於液化天然氣產量 4,700 萬至 4,800 萬噸的預測信心，與 10 月份的預測一致。因此，我們的團隊繼續趁機轉售部分未簽約的交易量。今天，我們預測 2025 年剩餘時間內未售出的產能約為 150 萬至 200 萬噸。

Of the approximately 3 million to 4 million tons of spot capacity for 2025 guided to on the last call, the Cheniere team has now locked in almost 2 million tons at attractive market netbacks up from over 1 million tons as of the last call. Given that exposure, we forecast that a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $75 million to $100 million for the full year. However, most of the remaining open volumes will be contingent on the timing and ramp-up of the first three trains of Stage 3.

在上次調用中預計的2025年現貨產能約為300萬至400萬噸中，切尼爾團隊目前已以頗具吸引力的市場淨回值鎖定了近200萬噸，高於上次調用時的100多萬噸。考慮到這一風險，我們預測市場利潤率每變化 1 美元，就會對全年 EBITDA 造成約 7,500 萬至 1 億美元的影響。不過，剩餘的開放運量大部分將取決於第三階段前三列火車的時間安排和增程。

Looking at curves today, netbacks, while volatile, are hovering around $8 to $9 for the balance of 2025. So the timing of our Stage 3 trains coming online and the resulting incremental marketing volumes could drive significant variability in our expected earnings for 2025. As with the commissioning of our first 9 trains, we hope to improve the commissioning process for each subsequent train by employing lessons learned.

從今天的曲線來看，淨回值雖然波動較大，但在 2025 年的剩餘時間內仍徘徊在 8 至 9 美元左右。因此，我們的第三階段列車上線的時間以及由此產生的增量行銷量可能會導致我們 2025 年預期收益發生很大變化。與我們前 9 列火車的調試一樣，我們希望透過吸取經驗教訓來改進後續每列火車的調試過程。

We continue to expect the remaining mid-scale trains at Stage 3 to reach substantial completion in 2026. At which point, we have several million tons of new long-term contracts starting in 2026 and 2027, keeping our platform over 90% contracted with creditworthy counterparties and take-or-pay style cash flows and averaging approximately 95% contracted through the mid-2030s.

我們繼續預計第三階段剩餘的中型列車將於 2026 年基本完工。屆時，我們將有數百萬噸的新長期合同，從 2026 年和 2027 年開始，使我們的平台 90% 以上的合同都是與信譽良好的交易對手簽訂的，並且採用照付不議的方式現金流，到 2030 年代中期，平均約 95% 良好的合同都是與信譽的合同對手的簽訂。

As always, our results could be impacted by the timing of certain cargoes around year-end. And as noted on prior calls, our DCF could be affected by changes in the tax code, particularly as it relates to any coming tax reform, the IRS transition items and the final rules of the corporate alternative minimum tax. These changes can impact the timing and amount of our cash tax payments this year and going forward. but should be immaterial on an NPV basis and not impact our ability to generate over $20 billion of available cash through 2026.

像往常一樣，我們的業績可能會受到年底某些貨物運輸時間的影響。正如在先前的電話會議中所指出的，我們的 DCF 可能會受到稅法變化的影響，特別是與任何即將到來的稅收改革、美國國稅局過渡項目和企業替代最低稅的最終規則有關的變化。這些變化可能會影響我們今年及以後現金納稅的時間和金額。但從淨現值角度來看應該不重要，並且不會影響我們在 2026 年之前產生超過 200 億美元可用現金的能力。

As Jack noted, in 2025, we are focused on bringing Stage 3 online safely while supporting this year's financial results, progressing trains 8 and 9 to FID while Bechtel remains on site constructing and commissioning Stage 3 and to take advantage of a constructive permitting window to provide line of sight to a total of over 90 million tons of permitted capacity across both sites, which will help solidify optionality for future brownfield growth long term.

正如傑克所說，2025 年，我們專注於安全將第三階段投入使用，同時支持今年的財務業績，推進 8 號和 9 號列車的 FID，同時 Bechtel 仍在現場建造和調試第三階段，並利用建設性許可窗口為兩個站點提供總計超過 9000 萬噸的許可容量，這將有助於長期鞏固未來棕地增長的性。

2025 is already off to a great start, and we are pleased to see the meaningful progress at Stage 3, keeping that project ahead of schedule, which will help us deliver on EBITDA growth in 2025. We're encouraged by strong and improving fundamentals across our industry, but we also take comfort in the strength and resiliency for a highly contracted platform that has been demonstrated through multiple cycles making us a trusted long-term partner to all of our stakeholders.

2025 年已經有了一個良好的開端，我們很高興看到第三階段取得了有意義的進展，使該專案提前完成，這將有助於我們在 2025 年實現 EBITDA 成長。我們對整個行業強勁且不斷改善的基本面感到鼓舞，但我們也對高度收縮的平台的實力和彈性感到欣慰，該平台已通過多個週期得到證明，使我們成為所有利益相關者值得信賴的長期合作夥伴。

As we remain focused on maintaining our track record of reliability, safety and operational excellence, we will continue to serve as responsible, transparent stewards of capital in order to grow our leading infrastructure platform and enhance the long-term compounding value delivered to our stakeholders while delivering on our commitments by supplying our customers with reliable, affordable and cleaner burning LNG.

我們將繼續專注於維護我們的可靠性、安全性和卓越營運記錄，並將繼續作為負責任、透明的資本管理者，以發展我們領先的基礎設施平台，提高為利益相關者帶來的長期複合價值，同時履行我們的承諾，為我們的客戶提供可靠、實惠和更清潔的燃燒液化天然氣。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。感謝您的時間和對 Cheniere 的關注。接線員，我們已經準備好接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First, it's great to see the seamless execution the tailwinds behind your business. Going back to the comments on the recent geopolitical developments related to Russia and Ukraine, has this altered your view on the path forward for US LNG in particular? Have you seen any effects on your commercial discussions for a long-term contract, especially with European customers and understanding that there's quite a bit going on over there between geopolitical developments, the weather, the depleting inventories and so on. So I would love to hear your thoughts here.

早晨。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我們很高興看到貴公司業務背後的順風優勢得以無縫執行。回顧對最近與俄羅斯和烏克蘭有關的地緣政治發展的評論，這是否改變了您對美國液化天然氣未來發展的看法？您是否發現這對您與歐洲客戶的長期合約商業談判有任何影響，並且您了解到那裡發生了很多事情，包括地緣政治發展、天氣、庫存消耗等等。所以我很想聽聽你的想法。

Theresa, thank you very much. This is Jack. I'll start, and I'll turn it over to Anatol, and he can talk more specifically about his interactions with our customers. But first, we pray for World Peace. I mean that we've -- it has been very concerning these last three years of what's going on just more broadly around the world, not only in the Ukraine. So we pray that we can settle things down and get back to basics and let people live and enjoy their lives. So as you know, we have a very highly contracted business model.

特蕾莎，非常感謝。這是傑克。我先開始，然後把麥克風交給阿納托爾，他可以更具體地談談他與我們客戶的互動。但首先，我們祈禱世界和平。我的意思是，我們——過去三年來，世界各地發生的事情不僅在烏克蘭，而且在其他國家，都令人擔憂。因此，我們祈禱一切能夠安定下來，回歸本源，讓人們過上好日子，享受生活。如你所知，我們的商業模式非常契約化。

So we have anticipated a very volatile commodity market going forward and it's no different than what we've seen in the past. So whether it was COVID in 2020 or the Ukraine Russian war in '23 and beyond, we expect there to be a lot of volatility in a commodity-driven market. But more specifically on our engagements with our customers, I think what's been extremely highlighted by this war is that energy security, energy diversity is necessary for any country's stability and growth.

因此，我們預計未來大宗商品市場將會出現非常不穩定的情況，與我們過去看到的情況沒有什麼不同。因此，無論是 2020 年的新冠疫情，還是 2023 年及以後的烏克蘭-俄羅斯戰爭，我們預計大宗商品驅動的市場將會出現很大波動。但更具體地說，就我們與客戶的互動而言，我認為這場戰爭極為凸顯的是，能源安全、能源多樣性對於任何國家的穩定和發展都是必要的。

So with that, Anatol, do you have any more to add?

那麼，阿納托爾，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Teresa. It is a backdrop of volatility and uncertainty. It is a market where Europe's call for additional LNG as inventories were depleted was heard loud and clear by the market. US sent a record amount of volume to Europe, 86% of our cargoes in January went to Europe and is helping resolve the current situation. But inventories, as you know, are still order of magnitude 25% lower than they were last year.

是的。謝謝，傑克。謝謝，特蕾莎。這是一個充滿波動性和不確定性的背景。由於庫存耗盡，歐洲對額外液化天然氣的需求得到了市場的響亮回應。美國向歐洲發送了創紀錄數量的貨物，1月份我們86％的貨物都運往了歐洲，這有助於解決當前的局勢。但如你所知，庫存仍比去年低 25%。

You have multiple conflicting events playing out. As we commented and Jack further commented, hopefully, there's good progress on Peace and the hot wars starts to ebb. On top of that, we have a very favorable geopolitical environment, both on the US side where we have good support from the administration to continue our growth ambitions as well as from Europe, which, on the one hand, aims to end the conflict.

有多個相互衝突的事件正在發生。正如我們和傑克進一步評論的那樣，希望和平能夠取得良好進展，熱戰開始消退。除此之外，我們擁有非常有利的地緣政治環境，一方面，我們得到美國政府的大力支持，以繼續實現我們的成長目標；另一方面，我們得到歐洲的支持，歐洲一方面致力於結束衝突。

But on the other hand, as soon as next week, we'll likely announce cessation of all Russian energy imports into Europe. All this results in a backdrop where the reliable and certain product that we offer with full destination flexibility it's just hard to see how there's a better solution to navigate the uncertainties that are on the comp. So we have a number of good tailwinds and hope that will be true for Europe at large.

但另一方面，最早下週我們可能會宣布停止從俄羅斯進口所有能源到歐洲。所有這些都導致​​這樣的一種背景：我們提供的具有完全目的地靈活性的可靠、確定的產品很難看出有更好的解決方案來應對公司面臨的不確定性。因此，我們面臨許多有利的順風條件，並希望這對整個歐洲也是如此。

Got it. And turning to the other side of the world. As the Trump administration targets the US's trade deficits with international trading partners, including top LNG importers in Asia, there seems to be more willingness to shore up gas supply with US LNG volumes. What do you make of this? Do you think this is largely a political rhetoric or would you expect an acceleration in commercial development from here complementing the structural demand growth from that area of the world.

知道了。並轉向世界的另一端。由於川普政府瞄準了美國與包括亞洲最大液化天然氣進口國在內的國際貿易夥伴的貿易逆差，這些國家似乎更願意利用美國液化天然氣來支持天然氣供應。您對此有何看法？您認為這主要是政治言論嗎？

No, Theresa, this is very similar to what happened during President Trump's first term when in November of 2017. I was invited to join the President and Secretary Ross on a trip through Asia and that resulted in the first long-term energy contract between China and Cheniere. And I would expect that he's very focused on making the US energy dominant. And I feel pretty confident he will follow through and help us all get more products sold and grow our business here domestically.

不，特蕾莎，這與 2017 年 11 月川普總統第一任期發生的情況非常相似。我受邀與總統和羅斯部長一起出訪亞洲，並促成了中國和切尼爾能源公司之間的第一份長期能源合約。我認為他非常專注於讓美國佔據能源主導地位。我非常有信心，他會堅持到底，幫助我們銷售更多產品，並在國內發展我們的業務。

Yes, Theresa, just to add to Jack's comments, we have this tremendous pull from Asia for gas in general and LNG. Unlike other LNG suppliers, the US does not do government-to-government transactions. That said, governments are very important in these discussions. And ultimately, there are commercial deals, Jack mentioned the one we executed with PetroChina in 2018, we've clearly shown the world the benefit of this destination flexibility, reliability and it's no accident that we've had a number of repeat engagements with China and other customers in Asia, and we expect that to continue to be the case, having proved this concept and having executed and further built our relationships through these various cycles. So hard to say that these are not tailwinds for us.

是的，特蕾莎，我補充傑克的評論，亞洲對天然氣和液化天然氣有著巨大的吸引力。與其他液化天然氣供應商不同，美國不進行政府間交易。儘管如此，政府在這些討論中非常重要。最終，還有商業交易，傑克提到了我們在 2018 年與中油執行的交易，我們已經向世界清楚地展示了這個目的地靈活性、可靠性的好處，而且我們與中國和亞洲其他客戶進行了多次重複合作並非偶然，我們希望這種情況繼續下去，我們已經證明了這個概念，並且在這些不同的周期中執行並進一步建立了我們的關係。所以很難說這些對我們來說不是順風。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Justin Jenkins, Raymond James.

賈斯汀詹金斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Thanks. Good morning everyone. I guess maybe if I tack on to Theresa's question, and Jack, you mentioned this in your remarks, but maybe some more details on how the early days of the Trump administration have been versus your expectations on the regulatory and permitting backdrop and maybe also how that potential for new capacity has played into contracting discussions as well.

謝謝。大家早安。我想也許我可以接著回答 Theresa 的問題，還有 Jack，你們在評論中提到了這一點，但也許我可以更詳細地介紹一下特朗普政府初期的情況與你對監管和許可背景的預期，以及新產能的潛力如何影響合同討論。

Justin, it's been refreshing quite honestly. So when we produced first LNG at Stage 3 in December, the first e-mail that came across my desk was from the then nominated Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright. And then the second e-mail came from the former Secretary of Energy, Dan Valette, who was with -- during President Trump's first administration. So it helps. These are very complicated, very capital-intensive projects. There's a lot of different moving parts at any given time to put together, having regulatory certainty is very important. It's not everything that makes the project go, but it's very, very important in our time line. So the focus and communications have been very strong and very clear.

賈斯汀，說實話，這令人耳目一新。因此，當我們在 12 月在第三階段生產第一批液化天然氣時，我辦公桌上收到的第一封電子郵件來自當時被提名的能源部長克里斯賴特 (Chris Wright)。第二封電子郵件來自前能源部長丹·瓦萊特（Dan Valette），他在川普總統第一屆政府期間任職。所以它有幫助。這些都是非常複雜、資本密集的項目。在任何特定時間都有許多不同的活動部件需要組合在一起，擁有監管確定性非常重要。這並非專案得以順利進行的全部因素，但在我們的時間表上卻非常非常重要。因此，重點和溝通非常強烈且非常清晰。

Great. I guess if I follow up on guidance here, it looks like 1 million to 2 million tons of Stage 3 volumes incorporated in the EBITDA guidance. Is that mostly just Train 1 and maybe some of train do getting into EBITDA for the year? Or how are you framing that volume sensitivity in 2025?

偉大的。我想，如果我遵循這裡的指導，看起來 EBITDA 指導中包含了 100 萬到 200 萬噸的第三階段產量。這主要是因為只有 1 號列車，也許其中一部分列車會進入當年的 EBITDA 嗎？或者您如何建立 2025 年的成交量敏感度？

Sure. Just to summarize for everybody, we've guided to 47 million to 48 million tons of LNG this year, which would be the most by a few million tons that we've ever done. That's based on the foundation of the first 9 trains at 45 million tons and then Stage 3 coming online, getting us to 47 million to 48 million. I'd say a little less than 1 million tonnes is expected to be commissioning and that gets you to like over to 46 million to 47 million tons.

當然。總結一下，我們今年的液化天然氣產量預計為 4,700 萬至 4,800 萬噸，比以往多出數百萬噸。這是以前 9 列火車 4500 萬噸的基礎之上，然後第三階段的上線，將使運力達到 4700 萬至 4800 萬噸。我認為預計將投入使用的產能略低於 100 萬噸，這樣產量將達到 4,600 萬至 4,700 萬噸。

To get to the high end of that range, basically, we're going to need three trains up and running and pretty much fully there by -- early in the fourth quarter of the year. And then to get to the low end of the range, basically that would mean only two trains hit substantial completion this year. Right now, we feel very good that we're in the middle of that range. and things are progressing well. But that's really the toggle between that 1 million to 2 million tons of P&L operational production.

為了達到這個範圍的高端，基本上，我們需要三列火車投入運行，並在今年第四季初全面投入運行。然後，到達該範圍的低端，基本上意味著今年只有兩列火車能夠基本完成。現在，我們處於這個範圍的中間，感覺非常好。一切進展順利。但這實際上是 100 萬噸和 200 萬噸損益營運產量之間的切換。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

[Bert Santibe], Wolfe Research.

[Bert Santibe]，沃爾夫研究。

Hi, good morning. Can you please talk to the optimization you've already seen year-to-date, whether it's shipping optimization with Asia-Europe spreads looking tight in certain periods or procurement from gas basis volatility.

嗨，早安。您能否談談今年迄今已經看到的優化情況，無論是航運優化（某些時期亞歐價差看起來很緊），還是針對天然氣基礎波動的採購。

Sure. We won't get into all the details of optimization. And as you know, as we think about guidance, and this is the initial guidance we've given for 2025. We don't lag into most of the optimization in the early guidance. So that will come with time as we continue to lock it in. And the optimization comes from upstream of the plant through our lifting margin and then downstream in the plant as we optimize with some third-party sourcing and moving cargoes around and taking advantage of at times the arbitrage between JKM and TTF and then obviously subchartering.

當然。我們不會深入討論優化的所有細節。如您所知，當我們考慮指導時，這是我們為 2025 年給予的初步指導。我們在早期指導的大部分優化方面並沒有落後。因此，隨著我們繼續鎖定它，這將隨著時間的推移而到來。並且優化來自於工廠上游，透過我們的提升利潤率，然後是工廠下游，因為我們透過一些第三方採購和運輸貨物進行優化，有時利用 JKM 和 TTF 之間的套利，然後顯然是轉租。

As one would expect with subchartering our shipping rates much lower year-over-year. In addition to that, with Stage 3 coming online, our length in our subchartering like portfolio or chartering book is less. So I'd imagine that will be less of a driver of the optimization this year. But it's fair to say we've already locked in over $100 million of optimization. But to get to the upside of our guidance range, we're keen to try to lock in a couple of hundred more.

正如人們所預料的那樣，透過轉租，我們的運費比去年同期下降了很多。除此之外，隨著第三階段的上線，我們的轉租業務（如投資組合或租船簿）的長度會縮短。因此我想這對今年的優化影響不會太大。但公平地說，我們已經鎖定了超過 1 億美元的優化資金。但為了達到我們指導範圍的上限，我們希望嘗試鎖定另外幾百個。

Thanks for that. And what are you seeing as far as pricing for long-term SBAs recently? And has there been any notable upward pressure as costs for new builds are rising?

謝謝。您最近看到長期 SBA 的定價情況如何？隨著新建築成本的上升，是否出現了明顯的上行壓力？

Yes. So it is a competitive market, as you can imagine. We have a number of projects that, of course, have FID-ed over the '22, '23 period. But as we've said on previous calls that the cost side of the equation is obvious to everyone, and we are at or above the top end of our historical range of 200 million to 250 million. For Cheniere's projects, we are confident that we can leverage our reliability and operational performance, having never missed a foundation customer cargo and extract a premium from that market.

是的。你可以想像，這是一個競爭激烈的市場。當然，我們有許多項目已經在2022年和2023年期間獲得了最終投資決定。但正如我們在先前的電話會議上所說的那樣，等式的成本方面對每個人來說都是顯而易見的，而且我們處於或超過了 2 億至 2.5 億的歷史最高水平。對於切尼爾的項目，我們有信心利用我們的可靠性和營運績效，從未錯過基礎客戶的貨物，並從該市場中獲得溢價。

So that's why we're comfortable saying we're at or above the top end of that range. That is up meaningfully from where we were, let's say, three or four years ago, but I would say, it's fair to say that it is not commensurate with the cost pressures that we've seen in the market. And as Zach will remind you, in order to move forward for us, we need to meet all of our investment parameters and we have to use every brownfield advantage in our book to get to that hurdle.

因此，我們可以放心地說，我們已處於或超過了該範圍的上限。這比三、四年前的水平有顯著上升，但公平地說，這與我們在市場上看到的成本壓力不成比例。正如扎克提醒您的那樣，為了向前發展，我們需要滿足所有投資參數，並且必須利用我們帳簿上的每個棕地優勢來克服這一障礙。

And just to add to that brownfield advantage, I mean, we already have Bechtel on site at Corpus and we're keen to FID, mid-scale eight to nine this year, which will just be two added trains. and we have some plans to unlock more debottlenecking there to get closer to 60 million tons as a total portfolio. And then we did speak to the idea that we're going to take advantage of this constructive permitting window to get over 90 million tons. But there's definitely flexibility there to do it in phases.

為了增加棕地優勢，我的意思是，我們已經在 Corpus 現場安裝了 Bechtel，我們熱衷於今年完成 FID，中期規模為 8 到 9 輛，也就是增加兩列火車。我們有一些計劃來突破那裡的瓶頸，使總投資組合更接近 6000 萬噸。然後我們確實談到了我們將利用這個建設性的許可窗口來獲得超過 9000 萬噸的想法。但分階段進行肯定具有彈性。

And there's a pretty good line of sight of first phases at both sites to get at least a large-scale train or so. That is very brownfield, meaning no tanks, no pipelines, no births. And that's going to allow us to be cost competitive and allows even these SBA levels that are better than they had been, but maybe haven't inflated as much as things like labor have work themselves out and put us in a really good position to continue to grow well beyond 60 million tons in the coming years.

並且，這兩個站點的第一階段工程都相當順利，至少可以容納一列大型火車。那裡是典型的棕地，沒有儲罐，沒有管道，也沒有生機。這將使我們在成本上具有競爭力，甚至使這些 SBA 水平比以前更好，但可能還沒有像勞動力等因素那樣膨脹，並使我們處於一個非常有利的位置，在未來幾年繼續增長到 6000 萬噸以上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeremy Tonet, J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Good Morning. Anatol, thank you for all the helpful commentary. Just want to go back to that a bit, if I could, on the macro side. It seems like the concern on Russian gas coming back into the marketplace and LNG supply in general coming and you've touched on this a number of times in the call. But just wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more, I guess, with regards to how you see this transpiring over time. in our minds, lower or even stable LNG prices have been helpful to incentivizing demand, particularly in Asia which seems to be the long-term growth avenue here. I'm just wondering if you could share some more thoughts along these lines.

早安.阿納托爾，感謝您所有有益的評論。如果可以的話，我只想從宏觀角度回顧這一點。人們似乎擔心俄羅斯天然氣重返市場以及液化天然氣供應總體情況如何，您在電話會議中已經多次談到這個問題。但我只是想知道您是否可以再詳細闡述一下，關於您如何看待這種情況隨著時間的推移而發生。在我們看來，較低甚至穩定的液化天然氣價格有助於刺激需求，特別是在亞洲，這似乎是這裡的長期成長途徑。我只是想知道您是否可以分享更多類似的想法。

Thanks, Jeremy. And again, as we've commented, we yearn for peace and we yearn for more moderate and stable economics of our product. We can control, to a large extent, safety and reliability, but market will dictate the economics. And as you know, the gas market, for example, globally grew by almost 3% last year, but of course, LNG market didn't grow or grew 4 million tons of over 400 million tonne base. So the market needs more LNG needs that dispatched and it needs to refill a number of markets that have been, in essence, starved of this product. And we hope that, that starts to play out over the coming years.

謝謝，傑里米。正如我們所評論的，我們渴望和平，我們渴望我們的產品經濟更加溫和、穩定。在很大程度上，我們可以控制安全性和可靠性，但市場將決定經濟。眾所周知，去年全球天然氣市場成長了近 3％，但液化天然氣市場當然沒有成長，在超過 4 億噸的基數中只增加了 400 萬噸。因此，市場需要調度更多的液化天然氣，並需要補充一些本質上缺乏這種產品的市場。我們希望，這一點能夠在未來幾年內實現。

We've tried out the number in the past of over 600 million tons, and this is a historical number of non-coincident demand by markets. And the one thing that has of course, played out over the last few years is the tremendous investment I mentioned specifically China, but you've seen this investment in gas generation, regas infrastructure, pipeline storage globally, over 400 million tons of regas capacity will be added to the current over 1,000 million tonnes by 2030. And those are just things under construction.

我們過去嘗試過6億多噸這個數字，這是市場需求非同步的歷史數字。當然，過去幾年已經顯現出來的一件事就是我特別提到的中國進行的巨額投資，但你已經看到全球在天然氣生產、再氣化基礎設施、管道儲存方面的投資，到 2030 年，再氣化產能將在目前的 10 億噸以上的基礎上增加 4 億噸以上。這些都還只是正在建設中的事情。

So how does Europe play out? Who knows, right? You have this policy directive that's going to come out that says no more Russian gas into Europe. On the other hand, again, we hope that piece is restored and flows are restored. I will lean on our friends at Equinor, who are the largest suppliers of gas to the continent these days. in an estimate that once flows are resumed, they'll be well below the prewar levels but could get up to the range of 30 to 35 Bcm, including a little bit on Nord Stream 2 through Europe -- sorry, through Ukraine, but highly, highly unlikely, and we agree with this through Poland.

那麼歐洲將會如何發展呢？誰知道呢，對吧？你們即將推出一項政策指令，規定不再向歐洲輸送俄羅斯天然氣。另一方面，我們再次希望該部分能夠恢復，流程能夠恢復。我將依靠我們在 Equinor 的朋友，他們目前是非洲大陸最大的天然氣供應商。據估計，一旦恢復供氣，天然氣流量將遠低於戰前的水平，但可能會達到300億至350億立方米，其中包括通過歐洲的北溪二號管道輸送的少量天然氣——對不起，是通過烏克蘭輸送，但可能性極小，我們同意通過波蘭輸送天然氣的說法。

So we think it's another relief valve. We think it's great for the market. The prices you've seen over the last few months into Europe are the highest that we've seen since the start of '23. So once you take out the extreme highs of '22 right after the war, very elevated, and they had the desired response. They drew a record amount of LNG into Europe, but inventories are still 25 percentage-points below a year ago, and every percentage point is about 10 cargoes.

因此我們認為它是另一個安全閥。我們認為這對市場非常有利。過去幾個月歐洲的價格是23年以來最高的。因此，一旦你消除了戰後 22 年的極高水平，他們就會得到預期的反應。它們向歐洲輸送了創紀錄數量的液化天然氣，但庫存仍比一年前低 25 個百分點，每個百分點約相當於 10 船貨物。

So you don't have any flow through Ukraine now. You're at a huge deficit. Europe will continue to need LNG. And if I can quote Equinor one more time, its estimate is an additional 350 cargoes of LNG. So again, what's the answer? Diverse flexible portfolio that reliably shows up and serves the load that desperately needs gas.

所以現在沒有任何流量經過烏克蘭。你的赤字巨大。歐洲將繼續需要液化天然氣。如果我可以再引用一次 Equinor 的話，它的估計是另外 350 批液化天然氣。那麼，答案又是什麼呢？多樣化、靈活的產品組合能夠可靠地滿足急需天然氣的負載。

Got it. That's very helpful there. And then if I could just turn to Zack quick here on capital allocation. Just wondering, we've seen others in midstream maybe deemphasize the buyback side, but it seems like Cheniere's continued to kind of plow forward on that side and the share count reduction that's been talked about. At the same time, if we think about future growth and we look at Corpus, the 2.5 years from FID to first LNG, no one has exceeded that speed to market. We see material contracts as signed as you've discussed in the past, the permitting window, as you've described in just very attractive brownfield economics here. And so just wondering how you think about balancing these sides. It seems like some more growth could be coming into the plan sooner given these factors. Just wondering if you could share your thoughts on this.

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後，如果我可以在這裡快速向扎克詢問資本配置問題。只是想知道，我們看到其他中游公司可能不再強調回購方面，但 Cheniere 似乎繼續在這方面向前邁進，並減少人們所談論的股票數量。同時，如果我們考慮未來的成長，並看看 Corpus，從 FID 到第一批液化天然氣花了 2.5 年的時間，沒有人能超過這個上市速度。我們看到了簽署的重要合同，正如您過去討論過的，許可窗口，正如您在這裡非常有吸引力的棕地經濟學中所描述的。我只是想知道您如何考慮平衡這些方面。考慮到這些因素，似乎計劃很快就會實現更多的成長。只是想知道您是否可以分享對此的想法。

Sure. Thanks for all that. And I'd say we're also targeting substantial completion of the first train inside of three years not just first LNG in 2.5, which we're pretty excited about. I think it comes back to the fact that I'm not sure we have many peers in our business that have the cash flow or operation maturity level that we have. So we're in a position now where we're going to have a relatively big CapEx year, right.

當然。謝謝你們。我想說，我們還計劃在三年內基本完成第一列火車的建設，而不僅僅是在 2.5 年內完成第一批液化天然氣的建設，我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為這歸結於一個事實，即我不確定我們業務中是否有許多同行擁有我們這樣的現金流或營運成熟度水平。所以我們現在所處的狀況是，今年我們的資本支出將會相對較大，對吧。

We're not yet on the home stretch of Stage 3, but we're going to have like $1.5 billion of unlevered CapEx there, and we plan to FID mid-scale 8 or 9, that could be around $800 million of CapEx this year. So we're talking about well over $2 billion. At the same time, we have over $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and we have an over $3 billion term loan still available to us to draw as we see fit in the coming years.

我們尚未進入第三階段的最後衝刺，但我們將在那裡投入約 15 億美元的無槓桿資本支出，並且我們計劃對中型 8 或 9 進行 FID，這意味著今年的資本支出可能會達到約 8 億美元。所以我們談論的是超過20億美元。同時，我們的資產負債表上有超過 30 億美元的現金，而且我們還有超過 30 億美元的定期貸款可供我們在未來幾年內提​​取。

So what you can expect is more of the same. Basically, this past year, we deployed $5.4 billion on capital allocation and DCF was 3.7%, and we brought our cash balances down from mid-$4 billion going into last year to low 3s. We're going to continue to work that down by $1 billion or $2 billion in the next year or so. and eventually draw on that term loan.

因此，你可以期待更多相同的事情。基本上，去年我們在資本配置上部署了 54 億美元，DCF 為 3.7%，我們將現金餘額從去年的 40 億美元中段降至 30 億美元的出頭。我們將在未來一年左右繼續將這一數字削減 10 億美元或 20 億美元。並最終利用該定期貸款。

So you can expect us to fund all this CapEx and still have more than enough capital to do more of the same as it relates to the buyback. We'll grow the dividend by 10% as we guided to -- and we'll pay down a healthy amount of debt again as we get ready for SPL expansion in the coming years. But the $2.25 billion of buybacks in one year, that shouldn't be an anomaly. It will just come down to how opportunistic we can be.

因此，您可以期待我們為所有這些資本支出提供資金，並且仍有足夠的資本來做更多與回購相關的工作。我們將按照預期將股息提高 10%——並且我們將再次償還大量債務，為未來幾年的 SPL 擴張做好準備。但一年內 22.5 億美元的回購並不應該是異常現象。這只取決於我們能有多善於抓住機會。

Got it, that's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

明白了，很有幫助。我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Craig Shere, Tuohy Brothers.

克雷格‧謝爾 (Craig Shere)、陶西兄弟 (Tuohy Brothers)。

Morning, thanks for getting me in. Zach, maybe I can pick up on Jeremy's question some others. So we have some stubbornly high C-corp cash balances on the balance sheet even after everything you've discussed buybacks, growth CapEx funding, reducing debt. So what do you see as a catalyst for ultimately bringing the C corp cash balance down to a more sustainable, perhaps $1 billion? Is it maybe bringing the CQP distribution down to the base after you finally FID Stage 5 or what should we be looking for here?

早上好，感謝您讓我進來。札克，​​也許我可以回答傑瑞米的其他問題。因此，即使在您討論了回購、成長資本支出融資和減少債務等所有內容之後，我們的資產負債表上仍然有一些頑固的高 C 公司現金餘額。那麼您認為什麼可以最終使 C 公司現金餘額降至更可持續的水平（例如 10 億美元）？在您最終完成 FID 第 5 階段後，是否會將 CQP 分佈降至基數，或者我們應該在這裡尋找什麼？

I think it's just going to be methodical as it was from 4.5% down to 3%, and you'll see it come down even more so this year as we have over $2 billion of planned CapEx that we'd like to do without slowing down whatsoever the rest of capital allocation. I think folks can take comfort that I like to say that to say that the buyback program could be opportunistic is an understatement. Basically, in Q1 last year, when we actually had a lot of pressure on the stock, we bought back over 50% of that number for the year.

我認為這將是有條不紊的，因為它從 4.5% 下降到了 3%，而且你會看到今年它會下降得更多，因為我們計劃的資本支出超過 20 億美元，我們希望在不減慢其餘資本配置速度的情況下完成這些計劃。我想大家可以感到安慰，我想說的是，說回購計畫可能是機會主義的，這是一種輕描淡寫的說法。基本上，去年第一季度，當我們的股票面臨很大壓力時，我們全年回購了超過 50％ 的股票。

If you just look at this coming -- the quarter that we're in today, we probably bought back more in the first two weeks of February than we did all of January. So you can see that, that will continue to plug away. But with the CapEx coming for Stage 3, mid-scale 8 and 9, and we'll continue to develop Sabine expansion and be in a position next year to start doing meaningful LNTPs. We're well placed to almost have very similar capital allocation year-over-year, where it will be demonstrably higher than even the $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion of DCF we just guided to.

如果你看看今天這個季度的情況，你會發現我們在二月前兩週回購的商品可能比整個一月份的還多。所以你可以看到，這種情況會持續下去。但隨著第 3 階段、中型 8 和 9 的資本支出到來，我們將繼續開發 Sabine 擴張，並準備在明年開始進行有意義的 LNTP。我們處於有利地位，幾乎可以實現逐年非常相似的資本配置，甚至明顯高於我們剛剛指導的 41 億美元至 46 億美元的 DCF。

Great. That's been the growth kind of segues into my second question. And that's the prospective 90-plus MTPA enterprise platform Jack alluded to in the opening comments. Presumably, that assumes at least another 10 MTPA permitted Corpus Christi after the nine major trains. Am I doing that math right? And what ultimately could that location hold?

偉大的。這就引出了我的第二個問題。這就是傑克在開場白中提到的未來的 90 多個 MTPA 企業平台。據推測，這意味著在 9 列主要列車之後，科珀斯克里斯蒂 (Corpus Christi) 的運輸量至少還會增加 10 MTPA。我做的數學題目對嗎？那麼，那個位置最終會容納什麼呢？

So as you know, Craig, we recently acquired 500 acres of property contiguous to our Corpus Christi site. There was a birth included in that purchase. The birth isn't LNG ready, but it gives us water access. So on that site, we could probably, on a clean sheet of paper, have somewhere around 20 million tons of additional LNG production in addition to the 9 Stage three trains and the three big trains.

如你所知，克雷格，我們最近收購了毗鄰科珀斯克里斯蒂基地的 500 英畝土地。該購買中包括一次生育。該出生地尚未準備好使用液化天然氣，但它為我們提供了供水管道。因此，在該地點，除了 9 條第三階段列車和 3 條大型列車之外，我們可能還可以在一張白紙上額外生產約 2000 萬噸液化天然氣。

That's why we just say over 90 million tons. But the idea that we're not well placed with brownfield growth at Sabine and Corpus is just not even close to true. So we're going to give ourselves this window to get that optionality. And then we might just hit a bunch of singles and doubles and grow by a few trains in phases as economics align. But it'll always come back to those economics and the fact that we can FID projects, thanks to this brownfield advantage at 6 times to 7 times CapEx to EBITDA.

這就是為什麼我們只說9000多萬噸。但是，認為我們不適合在薩賓和科珀斯進行棕地開發的想法根本不是事實。所以我們將給自己這個視窗來獲取這種可選性。然後，我們可能會推出一批單程和雙程列車，並隨著經濟狀況的發展，分階段增加幾趟列車。但它總是回歸到那些經濟學和我們可以對專案進行 FID 的事實，這要歸功於這種棕地優勢，即資本支出與 EBITDA 之比為 6 到 7 倍。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Yeah, hey, thanks for taking my question. I may have missed it earlier, but do you have an equity to debt funding target maybe not for Stage 3 in isolation as you continue to fund with equity, but Stage 3 in combination with the mid-scale expansions.

是的，嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。我可能之前錯過了，但您是否有一個股權轉債務融資目標？ 也許不是針對第三階段，因為您繼續用股權融資，而是將第三階段與中型擴張相結合。

Sure. Basically, as we think about FID of a project, it comes back to these economics that we want to earn a 10% unlevered return, which we back into being around 7x CapEx to EBITDA before leverage. And then adding leverage, bringing trains on early, taking advantage of margins that are over 250 are all upside to our shareholders that we don't bake in to justify FID of a project. So that's how we plan to FID future projects.

當然。基本上，當我們考慮一個專案的 FID 時，就會回到這些經濟因素上，即我們希望獲得 10% 的無槓桿回報，我們將其調整為槓桿前的資本支出與 EBITDA 之比約為 7 倍。然後增加槓桿，提早開通火車，利用超過 250% 的利潤率，這些都對我們的股東有利，但我們不會將這些利益考慮在內以證明項目的 FID 是合理的。這就是我們對未來專案進行 FID 的計劃。

But as it relates to Stage 3 and mid-scale 8 or 9 and obviously, the cash balance that we have and the undrawn term loan, we plan to just use that term loan to fund a portion of the remainder of Stage 3 and mid-scale 8 or 9 without having to raise incremental debt. It's the same as following through with debt pay down. We just don't do debt pay down, and we're equity funding a bit here and being very efficient with our cash and interest costs overall in the interim.

但由於它與第 3 階段和第 8 或第 9 階段中期有關，顯然，我們擁有的現金餘額和未提取的定期貸款，我們計劃僅使用該定期貸款來資助第 3 階段和第 8 或第 9 階段中期的剩餘部分，而無需增加增量債務。這與償還債務是一樣的。我們只是不償還債務，而是在這裡進行一些股權融資，並且在此期間我們總體上非常有效率地利用現金和利息成本。

But as we think about the Sabine expansion one day that will be inside an MLP, that's with a lower distribution distributing out over $2 billion this year. We plan to continue to distribute that out. We plan to stay investment grade and still have billions of dollars of debt raised to fund that project in the interim. So 50-50 is the plan. We don't have to do more than that. It aligns with all the other parameters of staying around under 4 times leverage even during construction going forward.

但是，當我們想到有一天 Sabine 擴張將會在 MLP 內部進行時，今年的分配額會較低，超過 20 億美元。我們計劃繼續分發該內容。我們計劃保持投資級別，並在此期間籌集數十億美元的債務來資助該項目。所以計劃是 50-50。我們不需要做更多。它與所有其他參數一致，即使在未來的建設過程中，槓桿率也將保持在 4 倍以下。

Okay, great, that was the only question for me. The rest of my questions have been answered. Thanks.

好的，太好了，這是我唯一的問題。我其餘的問題都已回覆。謝謝。

Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

Hi. As you are ramping Corpus Stage 3, your first foray into modular, can you speak to any learnings that you've had positive or negative around ramp-up time, ability to run over nameplate or anything else that you think is important?

你好。當您首次嘗試模組化，並推進 Corpus 第 3 階段時，您能否談談在加速時間、碾過銘牌的能力或其他您認為重要的事情方面獲得的積極或消極的認識？

On the question, you threw me for a curve, Jean Ann, did you say our first foray into modular?

關於這個問題，你讓我很為難，Jean Ann，你是說我們第一次嘗試模組化嗎？

I did, yeah.

是的，是的。

We stick build. So as you know, the only difference between the way we do it with Bechtel and the way somebody does it modularly is if you're betting against American workers' productivity. And we tend to bet on America and not on Italian workers, but --

我們堅持建設。所以如你所知，我們對待 Bechtel 的方式和某些人採用模組化方式對待的方式之間的唯一區別在於，你是否押注美國工人的生產力。我們傾向於押注美國而不是義大利工人，但是--

That's fair. I guess, maybe I'll revise instead of using the phrase modular to just the smaller size.

這很公平。我想，也許我會修改一下，而不是使用短語“模組化”，而只是表示尺寸更小。

The smaller size. Okay. So we're -- it's gone very well. I was very pleased with Bechtel and my staff on first LNG before the end of last year. we're down now on Train 1 to a very small construction work group, basically doing control tuning and some cleanup work. I would expect us with next month to go operational with that train well ahead of schedule. And then Train 2 is going extremely well.

尺寸較小。好的。所以，我們 — — 一切進展順利。我對 Bechtel 和我的員工在去年年底前完成的第一批液化天然氣感到非常滿意。我們現在在 1 號列車上有一個非常小的施工工作小組，主要負責控制調整和一些清理工作。我希望下個月這列火車能夠提前投入營運。2 號列車運行非常順利。

We're fully staffed from a construction perspective on an accelerated schedule where we've turned over 20% of the systems to commissioning. A lot of the systems that we had to bring online for Train 1 are already active, like the fee gas pipelines, the AGRU, the acid gas removal units to flare the LNG rundown line. So I would -- my expectation is that Train 2, 3, 4 just come on faster than what we experienced here with Train 1.

從施工角度來看，我們已按照加速的進度配備了充足的人員，其中 20％ 的系統已投入調試。我們為第 1 號列車上線的許多系統均已投入運行，例如進料氣體管道、AGRU、用於燃燒 LNG 消耗管線的酸性氣體去除裝置。因此我期望 2 號、3 號、4 號列車的速度能比 1 號列車更快。

That's great. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, as you're contracting Sabine Pass expansion, can you just give us your latest thinking about the minimum contract percentage of the portfolio that you would want to pursue?

那太棒了。謝謝。然後作為後續問題，由於您正在簽訂薩賓帕斯擴建合同，您能否向我們提供您對想要追求的投資組合最低合同百分比的最新想法？

Yeah. Thanks, Jean Ann. It's Anatol. So as you know, we've had very good success on the SBL expansion, where you've essentially contracted Train 7 and have done now our second offtake agreement for Train 8. We're very comfortable with those agreements and our partners there.

是的。謝謝，Jean Ann。是阿納托爾。如您所知，我們在 SBL 擴建方面取得了非常大的成功，您基本上已經簽訂了 7 號生產線的承包協議，現在又簽訂了 8 號生產線的第二份承購協議。我們對這些協議和我們的合作夥伴非常滿意。

And as Zack already mentioned, we'll look to see how we phase the expansion and make the math work in terms of generating the types of returns that we require of ourselves. So a very healthy position. And as we've covered throughout this call, there are some very robust tailwinds to the Cheniere platform and to US LNG as we work to be the key provider of these destination flexible solutions to the LNG consumers.

正如扎克已經提到的，我們將研究如何分階段擴張，並在產生我們所需的回報類型方面進行計算。因此這是一個非常健康的立場。正如我們在整個電話會議中提到的那樣，我們致力於成為液化天然氣消費者目的地靈活解決方案的主要供應商，而切尼爾平台和美國液化天然氣面臨著非常強勁的順風優勢。

And don't get us wrong. We take advantage of the torque by debottlenecking the facility, having open capacity, bringing trains on early before the contracts contractually begin. But we are a contracted infrastructure company. And we build at 6 times to 7 times CapEx to EBITDA, and we make it through years just fine like 2020 and do a hell of a lot better in years like 2022 and basically every year since. So we're kind of building this to last, and we know we're getting the right risk-adjusted returns by staying around 90% on a portfolio basis.

請不要誤會我們的意思。我們透過消除設施瓶頸、擁有開放容量以及在合約開始前提前啟動列車來充分利用扭力。但我們是一家承包基礎設施公司。我們的資本支出與 EBITDA 之比是 6 到 7 倍，我們順利度過了 2020 年這樣的年份，並且在 2022 年以及此後的每一年都表現得更好。因此，我們正在努力使這項策略持久，我們知道，透過將投資組合保持在 90% 左右，我們將獲得正確的風險調整回報。

We don't do this for the benefit of the banks. We do this for the standard that we've held the company to and how we compare everything to just buying back more stock and letting shareholders just down more of Sabina and Corpus that way.

我們這樣做不是為了銀行的利益。我們這樣做是為了確保公司遵守的標準，並將一切與回購更多股票並讓股東以這種方式持有更多 Sabina 和 Corpus 股票進行比較。

Great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

偉大的。謝謝。我就把它留在那裡。

John Mackay with Goldman Sachs

高盛的 John Mackay

Hey guys, thanks for the time. Just a quick one for me. I think previously, you talked about Sabine potentially being a 2026 FID. I understand we've kind of moving towards maybe less of 20 all at once and maybe a kind of one train at first with the brownfield economics. Can you sort of maybe walk us through what your process on timing could look like there?

嘿夥計們，感謝你們抽出時間。對我來說這只是一個快速步驟。我記得之前您曾談到 Sabine 有可能成為 2026 年 FID。我知道，我們可能正朝著少於 20 家企業的方向發展，並且可能首先採用棕地經濟的方式，採用一列列車。您能否向我們介紹一下您的時間安排流程是怎麼樣的？

I would say it's at the earliest, late '26, maybe even -- or more likely '27 because what's most important right now is this permitting window and understanding the art of the possible at both of our sites to get to 90-plus million tons over time. So we're going to work on that permitting process and make sure that we tee ourselves up not just for a super brownfield Phase I but for the ability to get to 15 million to 20 million tons over time. And if that forces us to FID in '27, so be it because it's most important that we have that optionality long term.

我認為最早可能在 26 年末，甚至可能是 27 年，因為現在最重要的是這個許可窗口，以及了解我們兩個站點隨著時間的推移達到 9000 多萬噸的可能性。因此，我們將致力於審批程序，確保我們不僅為超級棕地第一階段做好準備，而且能夠隨著時間的推移達到 1500 萬至 2000 萬噸的產量。如果這迫使我們在 27 年做出 FID，那就這樣吧，因為最重要的是我們擁有長期的選擇。

With that said, we're already spending money on the development of Sabine expansion, and I could see us starting LNTPs next year on Sabine expansion. So money is going to go out the door and we're going to start locking in costs and timeline. in a positive way to allow that project to be as successful as every other project we've done to date.

話雖如此，我們已經在 Sabine 擴張的開發上投入了資金，我可以預見我們明年將在 Sabine 擴張上啟動 LNTP。所以資金就要流出，我們要開始鎖定成本和時間表。以積極的方式使該項目像我們迄今為止完成的所有其他項目一樣成功。

Makes sense. Thank you.

有道理。謝謝。

That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給我們的演講者，讓他們發表任何補充或結束語。

This is Jack. I just want to thank everybody for all of your support. And we look forward to seeing you in the very near future.

這是傑克。我只想感謝大家的支持。我們期待在不久的將來見到您。

And once again that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議又結束了。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。