使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Good morning, everyone. We are here once again to disclose our earnings for BrasilAgro. Today, we're going to talk about the closing of our period from March 31, 2025, the 9 months accumulated for our harvest year '24, '25.
大家早安。我們在此再次揭露 BrasilAgro 的收益。今天,我們將討論從 2025 年 3 月 31 日開始的結束時間,這是我們 24、25 收穫年累計的 9 個月。
Good morning, everyone. Today I have: Andre, our CEO; and Gustavo Lopez, our CFO. For those listening in English, we have the presentation available on the chat, in the English version, and at the end we'll also open up to Q&A.
大家早安。今天我邀請到的是:我們的執行長安德烈;以及我們的財務長 Gustavo Lopez。對於那些用英語收聽的人,我們在聊天中提供了英文版的演示文稿,最後我們還會開放問答環節。
I'll [pass on] to Andre and have a great call.
我會轉達給安德烈並進行愉快的通話。
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Ana Paula. Thank you, everyone, once again for being with us, listening to the results. I'm going to tell you how we've been performing in the third quarter. Everyone knows this is a year with a lot of volatility, especially volatility in the currency, and we're going to share a bit of the strategies in the company and how the company has been able to really deliver the expected results to our shareholders.
大家早安。謝謝你,安娜·保拉。再次感謝大家與我們一起聆聽結果。我將告訴您我們在第三季的表現如何。大家都知道今年是波動很大的一年,尤其是貨幣波動,我們將分享公司的一些策略以及公司如何真正為股東帶來預期的表現。
So the highlights, as we always start off with them, they're BRL870 million of net revenue in the first 9 months; BRL195 million in adjusted EBITDA, a year of a lot of volatility; and BRL76 million in net income. [Gustavo] will get into this soon.
因此,正如我們總是首先提到的那樣,前 9 個月的淨收入為 8.7 億巴西雷亞爾;調整後 EBITDA 為 1.95 億巴西雷亞爾,這是波動很大的一年;淨收入為 7,600 萬巴西雷亞爾。 [Gustavo] 很快就會進入這個主題。
Then after -- it's good to always remember a bit of the history. When we defined the budget back then, we had at that moment $1 of BRL4.90, BRL4.80. Then we were very aggressive because we would look at the focus news estimates, and they were talking about BRL5.20, BRL5.30. By the end of the year, and we thought it would not be possible to have such a difference in value, and we budgeted BRL5.30. The campaign we're working on, we considered a BRL5.30 a $1, in the beginning of the year. We had a challenge to reach BRL5.30, and then from BRL4.90 we reached BRL6.40 and went back to BRL5.70.
然後——永遠記住一點歷史是件好事。當我們當時確定預算時,當時 1 美元相當於 4.90 巴西雷亞爾、4.80 巴西雷亞爾。然後我們非常積極,因為我們會查看焦點新聞估計,他們談論的是 5.20 巴西雷亞爾、5.30 巴西雷亞爾。到了年底,我們認為不可能有這樣的價值差異,我們的預算是 5.30 巴西雷亞爾。我們正在進行的活動,在年初時我們認為 5.30 巴西雷亞爾兌換 1 美元。我們挑戰達到 5.30 巴西雷亞爾,然後從 4.90 巴西雷亞爾達到 6.40 巴西雷亞爾,最後回到 5.70 巴西雷亞爾。
So a lot of volatility in the company was really keeping their eye open to not hinder the results operationally in the company, and the company a little more up ahead will provide more details. But despite this currency volatility we went through during this period, we also had the new American management come along with all of the tariffs, and then it's also worth mentioning later that we really believe that marginally Brazil could be benefited from this discussion and is already benefited.
因此,公司內部的許多波動確實讓他們保持警惕,以免影響公司的營運業績,公司稍後會提供更多細節。但是,儘管我們在此期間經歷了貨幣波動,我們也遇到了新的美國管理層以及所有關稅,然後值得一提的是,我們確實相信巴西可以從這次討論中受益,而且已經受益了。
I'm going to give you some details. So for Soy, for example, we were also there. We had pricing reduction expectations due to the supply and demand, and we saw in the last few months that there was a recovery in the premiums, and then we're going to detail the strategy of the company a little more to capture this possibility even more with premiums that we expect up ahead. But for Corn, this is a crop that has been really standing out in Brazil. We've started to produce corn ethanol as well in Brazil, which has brought a lot of stability in the price of corn.
我將向你提供一些細節。以大豆為例,我們也參與其中。由於供需關係,我們預期價格會下降,但我們在過去幾個月看到溢價有所回升,然後我們將更詳細地介紹公司的策略,以便透過我們預期的溢價進一步把握這種可能性。但就玉米而言,這是巴西真正突出的一種作物。我們也開始在巴西生產玉米乙醇,這為玉米價格帶來了很大的穩定。
Then you have some markets that stand out. For example, some new units that are being opened, and this has helped us have stable prices, especially for Maranhão, and the unit there in Balsas where we've been able to anticipate the sales of corn, which is something we didn't have in the past. You would produce corn, it would go to the internal market, or the exports market depending on where this production was concentrated. But now we start seeing the possibility of blocking this in a bit better.
那麼你就會看到一些脫穎而出的市場。例如,一些新工廠的開業幫助我們保持價格穩定,特別是對於馬拉尼昂州和巴爾薩斯州的工廠來說,我們能夠預測玉米的銷售情況,這是我們過去沒有過的。你生產的玉米將進入國內市場或出口市場,這取決於生產集中在哪裡。但現在我們開始看到更好地阻止這種情況的可能性。
Cotton started to come out of there, went sideways a lot. Then later we'll discuss this. Then we also talked about the cycle of animal protein and cattle, and we have important recovery due to the price of cattle as well. And Ethanol also has an intrinsic connection with petroleum, and we've been really monitoring this.
棉花開始從那裡出來,橫向移動很多。稍後我們再討論這個問題。然後我們也討論了動物性蛋白質和牛的週期,並且由於牛的價格我們也獲得了重要的復甦。乙醇與石油之間也存在著內在聯繫,我們一直在密切監測這一點。
You guys have also been considering looking at the possibility of this reduction as well. This possibility of [production] compared to the previous harvest. This harvest, the sector had an expectation of 610 million to 620 million, and now it's being reviewed to 580 million tons, which is what really has been sustaining the price of the ethanol. And sugarcane is also at about [BRL17].
你們也一直在考慮這種減少的可能性。與去年的收成相比,這種生產可能性較大。今年的收成,該產業原本預期產量為 6.1 億至 6.2 億噸,現在預計產量為 5.8 億噸,這才是支撐乙醇價格的真正因素。甘蔗也大約[BRL17]。
Next, please. Well, I think that once again it's worth mentioning, we've been always monitoring the margins, contribution margins, and we are finishing the harvest for summer and we're already positioning ourselves for the next harvest. We've already locked in part of the inputs, especially the fertilizers, and a big challenge this year is that the game in soy was always currency and Chicago, and now you have this other component, which is the base -- which is the premium.
有請下一位。嗯,我認為再次值得一提的是,我們一直在監控利潤率、貢獻利潤率,我們正在完成夏季的收穫,我們已經為下一次收穫做好了準備。我們已經鎖定了部分投入,特別是化肥,今年的一大挑戰是,大豆市場的博弈始終是貨幣和芝加哥,而現在又有了另一個組成部分,即基礎——也就是溢價。
And that's where you have a disadvantage, which is a component you can't lock in way before to establish these exchange rate relationships. So, it's a big challenge still, and that's where it advances a bit in the commercialization. And the inputs on fertilizers, but you have a derivative, let's say, which is the contribution margin and the sales price that also are impacted. So, we see how to go up. It's going up, of course.
這就是你的劣勢所在,你無法在建立這些匯率關係之前鎖定某個組成部分。所以,這仍然是一個巨大的挑戰,這也是它在商業化方面取得進展的地方。還有肥料的投入,但你有一個衍生性商品,比如說貢獻利潤和銷售價格也會受到影響。那麼,我們看看如何上升。當然,它正在上漲。
But one important highlight is fertilizers have two moments for consumption in the world, when the Northern Hemisphere is planting and when the Southern Hemisphere is planting. So, we're leaving the peak of demand in the Northern Hemisphere. The Americans, US, and Europe, and the entire Northern Hemisphere have finished their plantation.
但一個重要的亮點是,世界上肥料的消費有兩個時刻,即北半球種植時和南半球種植時。因此,我們即將迎來北半球的需求高峰。美國人、美國、歐洲、整個北半球的種植都完成了。
Now in the month of May, most of this is happening in April, and this made prices accelerate a bit, and now we expect things to kind of move sideways due to the demand in the Southern Hemisphere, only recovering around September, October. So everything that's going on in petroleum -- imagine that nitrogen products will come down a bit as well.
現在是五月份,大部分情況發生在四月份,這導致價格略有上漲,現在我們預計由於南半球的需求,情況會有所橫向波動,大約在九月、十月才會恢復。因此,石油領域發生的一切——想像一下氮產品也會下降一點。
So here on this graph we also have our position. We closed 45% phosphate, 50% chloride, and we are also advancing discussions on defensives, which is a discussion that's a little more delayed, but we've been able to also pressure these negotiations a lot to have a reduction in the dollarized price. So, if we consider dollar by dollar, the price would be a lot tighter compared to the BRL5.30 last year.
因此,在這張圖上我們也看到了我們的位置。我們關閉了 45% 的磷酸鹽和 50% 的氯化物,並且我們還在推進有關防禦的討論,這是一個稍微延遲的討論,但我們也能夠對這些談判施加很大壓力,以降低美元化價格。因此,如果我們逐美元計算,與去年的 5.30 巴西雷亞爾相比,價格會緊張得多。
But if you look at the graph on the bottom, you also see the exchange ratios, and they're kind of operating in a linear manner. We already had some exchange ratios in phosphate products that were better. Then in urea, that's also quite similar. And if we look at the inflationary corrections in this period, these are products where we think there's not too much room for drops.
但如果你看一下底部的圖表,你也會看到兌換率,它們以線性方式運行。我們已經有一些更好的磷酸鹽產品交換率。那麼對於尿素來說,情況也相當相似。如果我們看一下這段時期的通膨調整,我們認為這些產品的下跌空間並不大。
And phosphate products, I think we're at this year that's not less trivial, which is the cost of capital, right? So, anticipating purchases considers having capital beforehand with a cost of capital that's very expensive. So no doubt at all, the company's cash is allocated with very high interest, and we pressure -- we have commercial pressure that should be better than what we allocate cash for or possible rates that producers would consider for debt taking. We think this is going to kind of strangle the market a bit until you have demand coming around. Big companies can't wait to buy, like, lunch to dinner, but we are here to really commit to have a good business and a better harvest as well.
至於磷酸鹽產品,我認為我們今年面臨的問題也同樣重要,那就是資本成本,對吧?因此,預期購買需要事先考慮資本,而資本成本非常昂貴。因此毫無疑問,公司的現金分配了非常高的利息,我們施加壓力——我們面臨的商業壓力應該比我們分配現金的利率或生產商考慮承擔債務的可能利率要好。我們認為這會在一定程度上抑制市場,直到需求回升。大公司迫不及待地想要購買午餐和晚餐,但我們在這裡是真心致力於擁有良好的業務和更好的收成。
Then a quick summary here of the production in the company. I want to highlight a few things. We need to talk about the good news and the bad news, but especially the highlights that have been taking place, right. The company in the last two years incorporated over 20,000 hectares of plantations, especially in Mato Grosso region, mostly three units in Mato Grosso, Panamby, and units that we leased, and that incremented the surface a lot.
然後這裡簡單總結一下公司的生產情況。我想強調幾點。我們需要談論好消息和壞消息,尤其是已經發生的亮點,對吧。該公司在過去兩年中新增了超過 20,000 公頃的種植園,特別是在馬托格羅索州,主要是馬托格羅索州、帕南比的三個單位以及我們租賃的單位,這大大增加了種植面積。
But of course, you know that our business model is always looking at nonmature areas and making them become more mature, which brings in a little bit of volatility to our results. But we had a lot of soy in the first year in this harvest in Mato Grosso in areas that sell pastures. We had areas that did really well. So we considered about four units, two in Mato Grosso and one in Maranhão -- sorry, in Piaui, one in Bahia that produced a little bit below what we had budgeted.
但當然,你知道我們的商業模式總是專注於不成熟的領域並使其變得更加成熟,這會為我們的業績帶來一點波動。但在馬托格羅索州出售牧場的地區,今年收穫的第一年,我們收穫了大量的大豆。我們有些領域確實表現得非常好。因此,我們考慮了四個單位,兩個在馬托格羅索州,一個在馬拉尼昂州——抱歉,在皮奧伊州,一個在巴伊亞州,其產量略低於我們的預算。
And in exchange of these 16 production units, the others are a little bit above. But it's important to highlight that the company in the previous harvest is 300,000 tons. And when we consider estimates for soy, we [consider what was] the reduction in the area, which is really connected to the corn, the off-season harvest, et cetera, and also the effects of the productivity.
而換來這16個生產單位,其他的就稍微多一點了。但要強調的是,該公司上一年的收成是30萬噸。當我們考慮大豆的估計數時,我們會考慮種植面積的減少,這實際上與玉米、淡季收穫等有關,也考慮了生產力的影響。
So -- and then, 28 due to the 4 units, Mato Grosso, which had a unit with a lot of rain problems in the Xingu Valley, significant excessive rain, a unit there with over 3,000 millimeters of rain, and that was the main issue in Mato Grosso. And then in Bahia, Bahia was spectacular until February. But then in February, we had a 35-day unexpected summer period and the later ones had a bigger impact for corn, this was adequate and adjusted accordingly.
那麼 — — 然後,由於 4 個單位,馬托格羅索州的降雨問題嚴重,其中一個單位位於 Xingu 山谷,降雨量嚴重過大,那裡的一個單位降雨量超過 3,000 毫米,這是馬托格羅索州的主要問題。然後在巴伊亞,直到二月,巴伊亞的景色都很壯觀。但隨後在二月份,我們遭遇了長達35天的意外夏季,後期的夏季對玉米的影響更大,這是可以接受的,並進行了相應的調整。
The contribution margin in our first exercise is really bad, but that was adapted. And in the corn harvest, you don't have much triggers to mess with, but then you have this off-season or second harvest corn, and that's where we're able to reduce the cotton off-season area as well. We increased the corn, which was an excellent decision, very precise when we looked at the contribution margin production and profitability of the crops.
我們第一次演習中的貢獻利潤率確實很差,但已經進行了調整。在玉米收穫時,你不會遇到太多的觸發因素,但是你會遇到反季節或第二次收穫的玉米,這時我們也可以減少棉花反季節的面積。我們增加了玉米的產量,這是一個非常好的決定,當我們考慮作物的貢獻邊際產量和獲利能力時,這個決定非常精確。
So the cost of capital is super important. And when we consider cotton, we're considering a crop with costs of about BRL12,000 to BRL14,000 depending on the unit. But it's a very important crop per capita allocation. And when you look at the ROIC, we were able to reduce this area significantly for the harvest of corn.
因此,資本成本非常重要。當我們考慮棉花時,我們考慮的是一種成本約為 12,000 巴西雷亞爾至 14,000 巴西雷亞爾(取決於單位)的作物。但這是人均分配的一個非常重要的作物。當你查看 ROIC 時,我們能夠大幅減少玉米收穫的面積。
In the next graph, I talked about the volatility in the year. And here, you can see the numbers we're closing with. Soy, we had a more aggressive budget, but when we look at the actual prices per sack, we'll be able to deliver 2% above in the reais per sack, of course, due to the dollar that was not locked in. Then the currency, once again, we've been locking this in ever since the beginning.
在下圖中,我討論了今年的波動性。在這裡,您可以看到我們即將結束的數字。對於大豆,我們的預算更為激進,但當我們查看每袋的實際價格時,我們將能夠將每袋雷亞爾的價格提高 2%,當然,這是因為美元沒有被鎖定。然後是貨幣,再一次,我們從一開始就鎖定了這一點。
So this started off in April, May from last year. And we had this rush of the dollar, and we had a lot being sold already. It's worth mentioning we had a budget of $1 that was BRL5.30. We were locking in the margins and the contribution cost. At that moment, you had $1 [screen] of BRL4.90. So we're locking in what we could do there, and then we were able to close soy at about BRL10.90.
這是從去年四月、五月開始的。我們面臨美元熱潮,許多商品已經售出。值得一提的是,我們的預算為 1 美元,即 5.30 巴西雷亞爾。我們鎖定了利潤和貢獻成本。那時,您有 1 美元 [螢幕],價值 4.90 巴西雷亞爾。因此,我們鎖定了我們能做的事情,然後我們能夠以約 10.90 巴西雷亞爾的價格收盤大豆。
It's better than what we see on the screen today. Currency is BRL5.40, worse than what it was now. In fact then we had to take on a stance to be able to lock in the prices. For ethanol we had good recovery. We were able to take on significant recovery when it comes to price levels; corn, as well. For corn, we locked in about 60% with prices that are almost on average in the company at about BRL8 or BRL9 more expensive. And for cotton, I think we're very fortunate in locking in the price -- of the pound per price. And so the harvest that we're ending at '24, '25, we have cotton of BRL77.30.
它比我們今天在螢幕上看到的要好。貨幣為BRL5.40,比現在更糟。事實上,我們必須採取某種立場才能鎖定價格。對於乙醇,我們取得了良好的復甦。在價格水準方面,我們能夠實現顯著的復甦;還有玉米。對於玉米,我們鎖定了約 60% 的價格,而該價格幾乎比公司平均價格高出約 8 巴西雷亞爾或 9 巴西雷亞爾。對於棉花,我認為我們很幸運能夠鎖定每磅的價格。因此,截至 24、25 年的收穫期,我們的棉花產量為 77.30 巴西雷亞爾。
Next harvest, we've also taken on some positions due to the currency. So you can see we've closed cotton at BRL69, but the currency at [BRL6.64]. So that allows us to have good value per sack. Another line that also impacts our results are the receivables from farms. So here we're also taking on our position. We just brought in details for '26, but they're also taking advantage of the volatility in the type of currency locking in, a bit more than 20% with the currency at BRL6.24.
下一次收穫時,我們也會根據貨幣採取一些立場。因此,你可以看到,棉花價格已收在 69 巴西雷亞爾,但[6.64巴西雷亞爾]。這樣,我們每袋產品就能獲得良好的價值。另一個影響我們績效的因素是農場應收帳款。因此,我們在此也表明我們的立場。我們剛剛介紹了 26 年的詳細信息,但他們也利用了貨幣鎖定類型的波動性,當貨幣匯率為 6.24 巴西雷亞爾時,波動率略高於 20%。
So this is a photograph of our harvest, and so the summary of these numbers are the numbers Gustavo will be presenting now. Thank you so much, everyone.
這是我們收穫的照片,這些數字的總結就是 Gustavo 現在將要展示的數字。非常感謝大家。
Gustavo Javier Lopez - Chief Administrative Officer, Director of Investor Relations, IR Contact Officer
Gustavo Javier Lopez - Chief Administrative Officer, Director of Investor Relations, IR Contact Officer
Well, thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone. We want to thank you all for your presence and monitoring -- and watching our presentation of the first nine months for '24, '25. To highlight here, the exercise -- and you can see on the left side here of the period for our financial year, you have a result of, as you can see, a net income where in the previous period, we had reached BRL5.9 million. On the right side, you can see that the main variations in this period from the BRL5.9 million expected, how did we reach the BRL76 million in this period of nine months of '25.
好吧,謝謝你,安德烈。大家早安。我們要感謝大家的出席和關注——並觀看我們對 2024 年、2025 年前九個月的演示。這裡要強調的是,您可以在我們財政年度期間的左側看到結果,如您所見,上一期間我們的淨收入已達到 590 萬巴西雷亞爾。在右側,您可以看到這段時期的主要變化,從預期的 590 萬巴西雷亞爾,到 2025 年九個月期間如何達到 7,600 萬巴西雷亞爾。
Our best prices, especially for sugarcane and corn caused a positive variation of about BRL47 million approximately as well as the bigger volumes sold of soy and sugarcane with a positive variation of BRL20.6 million. The price and volumes are a reflex that is increasing the net revenue -- operational net revenue. We believe is a variation of about 20%. There are BRL540 million in the same period, the previous year. Then the sale of the farm, Alto Taquari, and that's what we had already considered in the previous semester and that explains the positive variation.
我們的最優惠價格,尤其是甘蔗和玉米的價格,帶來了約 4,700 萬巴西雷亞爾的正向變化,同時大豆和甘蔗的銷量也大幅增加,帶來了 2,060 萬巴西雷亞爾的正向變化。價格和銷售是一種反映,它增加了淨收入——營運淨收入。我們認為變化幅度約為 20%。去年同期為5.4億雷亞爾。然後是農場 Alto Taquari 的出售,這是我們在上個學期已經考慮過的事情,這也解釋了積極的變化。
And on the other side we also see the financial results, considering the volatility that I mentioned, especially with the Chicago prices and real prices, all the way to the interest and the increment also of the SELIC rate. So they present a big variation when you compare from one year to the other.
另一方面,考慮到我提到的波動性,我們也看到了財務結果,特別是芝加哥價格和實際價格,一直到利息和 SELIC 利率的增加。因此,當你比較不同年份時,它們會呈現出很大的差異。
In the bottom right side here, considering the financial results, we can see how there is a reduction of the revenue and the financial investments and applications, which was proportional also to the volume and the cash. Last year we operated with a cash of about BRL330 million, this year BRL146 million, because there is also a bit of a big investment in these areas Andre mentioned that we incorporated gradually.
在右下角,考慮到財務結果,我們可以看到收入和金融投資及應用的減少,這也與數量和現金成正比。去年我們營運的現金約為 3.3 億雷亞爾,今年為 1.46 億雷亞爾,因為 Andre 提到的這些領域也有一些大的投資,所以我們逐步將其納入其中。
So then you have the update of the fair value for leases, which also impacts about BRL32 million. We had some new contracts and renewals, the increase in the SELIC rate also impacts this. This year also, as part of these leases, we have the obligation to deliver the sugarcane and a negative variation in the price, which had positively benefited these leases in this year, as we are having an increment in price, which has also helped to worsen this line a bit.
因此,您更新了租約的公允價值,也影響了約 3,200 萬巴西雷亞爾。我們有一些新合約和續約,SELIC 利率的增加也對此產生了影響。今年,作為這些租賃的一部分,我們有義務交付甘蔗,價格出現了負面變化,這對今年的租賃產生了積極的影響,因為價格上漲了,這也使這條線路的情況惡化。
Then, updating the fair value of the receivables, we have about [7.8 million] sacks of soy. To receive last year they had registered a positive result, about BRL31 million, because there was a price of soy from Chicago that was a lot higher, about $12.5, and the CDI was also about 10%. So in 2025, the results, which were at about [BRL4.7 million, had $1] that was a lot better, and a CDI of about [14.25]. So we can say that this also impacts it.
然後,更新應收帳款的公允價值,我們有大約 [780 萬] 袋大豆。去年,他們的收入取得了積極的成果,約為 3,100 萬巴西雷亞爾,因為芝加哥的大豆價格高得多,約為 12.5 美元,而且 CDI 也約為 10%。因此,到 2025 年,結果要好得多,約為 [470 萬巴西雷亞爾,1 美元],CDI 約為[14.25]所以我們可以說這也對其產生了影響。
And last year we also had some benefits in the financial results. Anyways, I just want to remind you that these are nonactual results, right? So what actually has a cash effect would be the first line, where you have the revenues from investments, and you have the derivatives of course, as long as they're actual, right? And the interest also on the financing, that is normally paid off during a certain period.
去年我們的財務表現也取得了一些進展。無論如何,我只是想提醒你,這些都是非實際結果,對嗎?那麼,真正具有現金效應的是第一行,即您擁有來自投資的收入,當然還有衍生品,只要它們是實際的,對嗎?融資利息通常在一定期間內還清。
So as you can see in the previous period, we have profit of BRL41.9 million, and this year we had a positive effect in commodities, and a negative impact of BRL31 million, which would be [BRL14] negative. As Andre mentioned, we had a type of currency of about BRL5.45, BRL5.48, and the $1 reached levels of BRL6.20, which is what we had considered also. And the increase of the interest also considered an average volume of about BRL650 million, and this increment in the SELIC rate of 13.5%, year over period, also generates a result that's greater.
因此,正如您所看到的,在上一期間,我們的利潤為 4,190 萬巴西雷亞爾,今年我們在商品方面產生了積極影響,同時也產生了 3,100 萬巴西雷亞爾的負面影響,這將是負值 [14]。正如安德烈所提到的,我們有一種貨幣,大約是 5.45 巴西雷亞爾、5.48 巴西雷亞爾,而 1 美元則達到了 6.20 巴西雷亞爾的水平,這也是我們所考慮的。而利息的成長也考慮了約 6.5 億巴西雷亞爾的平均金額,而 SELIC 利率年增 13.5%,也產生了更大的結果。
And finally, the last line, considers the currency variations, and considering the moment [someone pays this] of the financial results as well, this generated most of the results that impacted things differently when we compare one exercise with the other. So another line that I also want to highlight, the BRL195 million, considering the EBITDA, and the margin of 10%.
最後,最後一行考慮了貨幣變化,並考慮了[有人支付]財務結果的時刻,當我們將一項練習與另一項練習進行比較時,這產生了對事物產生不同影響的大多數結果。因此,我還想強調的另一點是,考慮到 EBITDA 和 10% 的利潤率,這個數字是 1.95 億巴西雷亞爾。
Last year this amount was about BRL16 million, and last year, remember, it was that year where we had a very high cost composition, and price of commodities that dropped also, on the value of the real that also gained a lot of value. But when you consider the central part here, with the adjusted EBITDA, you can explain why there's not this variation of BRL16.4 million, which is BRL295 million, and as we can see, who most contributed with the sugarcane operation, BRL48 million, soy BRL21 million, and especially the sale of the farm with the BRL103 million.
去年這個數字大約是 1,600 萬巴西雷亞爾,記住,去年我們的成本組成非常高,商品價格也下降了,而雷亞爾的價值也上漲了很多。但是當您考慮這裡的核心部分,透過調整後的 EBITDA,您可以解釋為什麼沒有 1640 萬雷亞爾的變化,而是 2.95 億雷亞爾,並且我們可以看到,貢獻最大的是甘蔗業務,4800 萬雷亞爾,大豆 2100 萬雷亞爾,尤其是農場出售,1.03 億雷亞爾。
On the next page, we have the gross results for each crop, and here it's important to mention that all of these crops, except for soy, are related to the stock we sold in the previous harvest, and when it comes to corn, we had mentioned when we compare one period with the other, there was a very significant reduction in the amount produced and commercialized.
在下一頁,我們列出了每種作物的總體結果,這裡需要重點指出的是,除大豆外,所有這些作物都與我們在前一季收穫時出售的庫存有關,至於玉米,我們曾提到,當我們將一個時期與另一個時期進行比較時,其產量和商業化程度都有了非常顯著的減少。
Because we understood it wouldn't be a good moment, and the margins didn't really keep up with this, but due to agricultural issues, we sometimes need this for preserving the soil quality, and the beans we also finished selling, sugarcane also we had already mentioned, 1.3 million tons for the sugarcane, that passes a lot better with the cost.
因為我們知道這不是一個好時機,利潤率也跟不上這個,但由於農業問題,我們有時需要這樣做來保持土壤質量,而且我們也賣完了豆子,還有我們已經提到的甘蔗,130 萬噸甘蔗,這樣成本就好多了。
We had also added on to part of our lease is being in tons of sugarcane, and the impact of pricing also impacts costs, but with margins of 33%, and our expectation for corn and for sugarcane is to keep the contribution margin. And for corn where we had a contribution margin that was negative, with the impact of price and the internal demand. And also considering the productivity, and we consider we have very positive margins in corn in the pre-second harvest.
我們還增加了部分租賃,其中包括大量甘蔗,定價的影響也會影響成本,但利潤率為 33%,我們對玉米和甘蔗的期望是保持貢獻利潤率。對於玉米,我們的貢獻利潤為負,受到價格和內部需求的影響。同時考慮到生產力,我們認為在第二次收穫之前,玉米的利潤率非常高。
Then cotton is also a crop we're incorporating, we're working to be able to consolidate this in the basket of products in the company. As Andre has also mentioned, I think our expectation for this harvest is generally when you consider the harvest, and the second harvest, they're very positive.
棉花也是我們正在納入的一種作物,我們正在努力將其整合到公司的產品籃子中。正如安德烈也提到的那樣,我認為我們對這次收成的期望總體上是,當你考慮到收成和第二次收成時,它們是非常積極的。
We have a lot of areas that are, in areas that are irrigated, which gives us more comfort and safety, but we understand that the margins here in this case are going to be very close to what we expect for the previous harvest. I think we also have some work to do with the commercialization and the way we take care of the quality of this product, to be able to have a balance in this sub-product.
我們有很多地區都有灌溉,這給我們帶來了更多的舒適和安全,但我們知道,在這種情況下,這裡的利潤將非常接近我們對上次收成的預期。我認為我們在商業化和產品品質方面還需要做一些工作,以便能夠在這個子產品中保持平衡。
And then the soy, I think which we left for last. During this quarter we had the main activity, it was about 150,000 tons, 160,000 tons, and the strategy of the company was to shift more of this product in the second semester, to be able to have an improvement in the premiums. But the challenge we had in some parts of Mato Grosso do Sul with the rain issue, made most of the production, which was impacted with cost due to lower productivity.
然後是大豆,我想這是我們最後討論的。本季度,我們的主要活動量約為 150,000 噸、160,000 噸,公司的策略是在第二季度轉移更多此類產品,以便能夠提高溢價。但我們在南馬托格羅索州部分地區遇到了降雨問題,這影響了大部分生產,並因生產率較低而產生了成本影響。
It was a very tight margin, but the expectation for the other 150,000 tons we have to commercialize is that these were all harvested with excellent quality, considering the farms that had really high productivity with costs per ton being a lot better than what we're presenting here, and the prices of course will be, because they didn't have discounts as we suffered, in this first quarter.
利潤非常微薄,但對於我們要商業化的另外 150,000 噸,我們預期這些收穫的玉米品質都非常好,因為農場的生產力確實很高,而且每噸成本比我們在這裡介紹的要好得多,價格當然也會如此,因為在第一季度,他們沒有像我們一樣享受折扣。
Well, on the next slide here, we can see our debt in the company at the moment, the total debt level as of March 31, with a cash of BRL105 million, BRL779 million of the adjusted net debt. And you can consider that the interest and the cost of our debt is a very low cost of debt. We were able to combine a series of instruments with different types of indexes that allow the company to have very low costs.
好吧,在下一張幻燈片中,我們可以看到我們公司目前的債務,截至 3 月 31 日的總債務水平,現金為 1.05 億巴西雷亞爾,調整後的淨債務為 7.79 億巴西雷亞爾。你可以認為我們的債務利息和成本是非常低的債務成本。我們能夠將一系列工具與不同類型的指數結合,使公司的成本非常低。
However, the SELIC rate is at about 14%, with a perspective of about 15%, and as Andre mentioned, also this is a concern we have, especially considering some crops where you have a return -- the contribution margin that's very good such as the cotton case, but you have a very high plantation cost. And when we consider that this should be performed through part of the financing costs, the returns are very low.
然而,SELIC 利率約為 14%,預期約為 15%,正如 Andre 所提到的,這也是我們擔心的問題,尤其是考慮到一些有回報的作物——貢獻利潤率非常好,例如棉花,但種植成本非常高。而當我們考慮到這要透過部分融資成本來實現時,回報率就非常低了。
So now we're going to have a exercise to rethink the budget and the way we're going to fund. So we were working with about BRL1 billion of working capital, and this year we had considered about 30%, but there was an expectation that we had a year ago was that the interest would be headed towards 9%, and the scenario changed completely, and that's going to lead to us having to rethink how we're going to work on this.
所以現在我們要重新考慮預算和融資方式。因此,我們擁有大約 10 億巴西雷亞爾的營運資金,今年我們考慮的比例約為 30%,但一年前我們預計利息將達到 9%,而現在情況完全改變了,這將導致我們不得不重新思考如何處理這個問題。
And so it's important to mention, this debt is very balanced if you consider this working capital, then we have BRL500 million, which are going to be maturing in two to five years. And about BRL37 million above five years. And another point that we always consider in our calculations, which has a cash effect are the receivables of the sale of the farms. And so, to receive this up ahead. And with this, we're really comfortable considering the company's leverage.
因此值得一提的是,如果考慮到營運資金,這筆債務非常平衡,我們有 5 億巴西雷亞爾,將在兩到五年內到期。五年內約3700萬巴西雷亞爾。我們在計算中始終考慮的另一點是具有現金效應的農場出售的應收帳款。因此,請提前了解這一點。有了這個,我們真的可以放心考慮公司的槓桿作用。
And I think here, we're wrapping up.
我想,我們到此就結束了。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Now we're going to start with our Q&A. Thank you, Andre and Gustavo. We have two live questions here.
現在我們開始問答環節。謝謝你,安德烈和古斯塔沃。這裡我們有兩個實際問題。
Pedro Fonseca, XP.
佩德羅·豐塞卡,XP。
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
I actually have two here. First, about the purchase of land. Andre has been talking about this quite a bit. And I even saw an article where you were talking about the regions of Maranhão and Piaui. And I wanted to understand a bit of, why the company considers this to be the most attractive regions. What's the profile of this land? What do you guys considered about pricing? Is this something we should expect to come in the short term? And so my first question is more about this purchase of land.
我這裡實際上有兩個。第一,關於土地購買。安德烈已經多次談論這個話題。我什至還看到一篇文章,您在其中討論了馬拉尼昂州和皮奧伊州地區。我想了解為什麼公司認為這是最具吸引力的地區。這片土地的概況如何?你們對於定價有什麼考量?這是我們應該在短期內期待發生的事情嗎?所以我的第一個問題是關於這次土地購買的事情。
And the second question is about the trade war issues, right? So what have you guys been able to capture as opportunities in the trade war or even as risks when you consider this from a cost perspective and what do you guys think are going to be considered for soy next year?
第二個問題是關於貿易戰問題,對嗎?那麼,從成本角度考慮,你們在貿易戰中抓住了哪些機遇,哪些風險?你們認為明年大豆的情況會如何?
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Pedro, as always, your questions are very intelligent and provocative. So the first one here, we could spend a long time answering, but just to take advantage of the -- what you mentioned on the article you read about what I said. There's a fundamental here -- issue, which is we always say the company needs to buy land when everyone wants to sell and sell land when everyone wants to buy. And we need to be a company that takes on this approach.
佩德羅,一如既往,你的問題非常聰明且富有啟發性。因此,對於這裡的第一個問題,我們可能需要花很長時間來回答,但只是為了利用——您在文章中提到的關於我所說的內容。這裡有一個根本問題,我們總是說,當每個人都想出售土地時,公司需要購買土地;當每個人都想買土地時,公司需要出售土地。我們需要成為一家採取這種方法的公司。
When I highlighted this region, Maranhão and Piaui, we were considering, I remember perfectly that the reporter was asking me, like, where do you see more opportunities? And that's due to everything we were talking about, high cost of capital, et cetera. And the opportunities always come out initially where you had more leverage in the last few years. So in regions like Maranhão and Piaui, these are regions that had important expansions, mostly with our own capital and some with third-party capital. This is where we have opportunities.
當我強調馬拉尼昂州和皮奧伊州這個地區時,我們正在考慮,我清楚地記得記者問我,你在哪裡看到了更多的機會?這是由於我們所談論的一切原因,高資本成本等等。機會總是在你過去幾年擁有更多籌碼的時候出現。因此,在馬拉尼昂州和皮奧伊州等地區,這些地區都經歷了重要的擴張,大部分是用我們自己的資本,有些是用第三方資本。這正是我們的機會所在。
We're not talking about -- we're talking about farmers that need to equate things. They were doing things really well. They had great margins. Then we know we are going to be in a commodity cycle. It's going to be a little tighter in the next few years due to the supply-demand. And it's important to highlight that this is a bet based on fundamental issues. So you could have a tough or drought period where you have a reversal in the supply and then you have an interesting curve for commodities once again. But when you consider the fundamentals, we had a transitional stock of soy that's high and for corn that's low. So focusing especially in the regions that had high leverage in their land.
我們不是在談論——我們在談論需要平衡事物的農民。他們所做的事情確實非常好。他們的利潤空間很大。那我們就知道我們將進入商品週期。由於供需關係,未來幾年市場將會更加緊張。需要強調的是,這是基於根本問題的賭注。因此,您可能會遇到困難或乾旱時期,供應出現逆轉,然後大宗商品的價格會再次出現有趣的曲線。但當你考慮基本面時,我們的大豆過渡庫存很高,而玉米的過渡庫存很低。因此,我們特別關注土地槓桿率較高的地區。
And we also talked about expansion in cattle raising areas. This is going to continue to happen in Brazil. Farmers learned that it's more worth it to have an agricultural acre than a cattle acre. But we've seen important recovery in cattle in the last 1.5 years.
我們也討論了擴大養牛區的問題。這種現像在巴西也將繼續發生。農民們認識到,擁有一英畝的農業用地比擁有一英畝的養牛用地更有價值。但在過去的一年半里,我們看到了牛產量的顯著恢復。
And we had a perfect storm in the last years before because you had low price of cattle and good commodities, and everyone was kind of stepping on the accelerator to transform cattle raising areas. But now we're going to balance this out. But we'll still see a lot of investments in this. And that's where we see opportunities.
而在前幾年,我們經歷了一場完美風暴,因為牛的價格低,商品品質好,每個人都在加強改造養牛區。但現在我們要平衡這一點。但我們仍會看到對此的大量投資。這就是我們看到的機會。
So, yes, there are many opportunities and we're working on these. It's difficult with the interest rates we have today because just the walk is growing a lot. And the projects, we were searching for returns that we expect for our cash or that we would be able to apply to this. So it's a moment where you have an inflection point and we start noticing some opportunities. And then once again, I mentioned, the companies that managed their cash position.
是的,有很多機會,我們正在努力抓住這些機會。在目前的利率水準下,這很困難,因為步行速度正在大幅成長。對於這些項目,我們正在尋找我們期望的現金回報或能夠應用於此的回報。所以這是一個轉捩點,我們開始注意到一些機會。然後我再次提到管理現金狀況的公司。
And then about the trade war, this is a chapter apart. I think we benefit from this. And here I'm just talking about how we must be balanced with the size of the benefit, right? You see, oh, Chinese just go and buy soy in Brazil. But that's not going to happen because soy has an intrinsic beauty. Soy is a commodity that in the last 15 or 20 years had half of its production in the Northern Hemisphere and half in the Southern Hemisphere.
關於貿易戰,這是另一個章節。我認為我們從中受益。這裡我只是在談論我們必須如何與利益的大小保持平衡,對嗎?你看,中國人就去巴西買大豆。但這種情況不會發生,因為大豆本身就具有美。大豆這種商品在過去的15到20年間,一半的產量產自北半球,另一半產自南半球。
This is wonderful for who's the customer of the commodity. Because imagine, I can supply my industry part of the year from the Northern Hemisphere and part of the year from the Southern Hemisphere. If I have the contrary and you imagine, well, Oh, now the trade war is going to send all of the Chinese -- all the soy from China is going to come from Brazil, then Chinese are going to definitely have to invest in stocking up there. We want, of course, to have everything set at once.
對於該商品的客戶來說,這真是太棒了。因為想像一下,我可以在一年中的一部分時間從北半球為我的行業提供供應,在另一部分時間從南半球提供供應。如果我持相反的觀點,那麼想像一下,好吧,現在貿易戰將使所有來自中國的大豆都來自巴西,那麼中國人肯定要投資在那裡儲存。當然,我們希望立即安排好一切。
And so the beauty of the soy complex around the world is that you have a balanced production between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. In the last few years, the Southern Hemisphere was standing out. Of course, we're producing more there in the Northern Hemisphere, but that's what happens.
因此,全球大豆產業的美妙之處在於北半球和南半球的產量保持平衡。過去幾年,南半球尤為突出。當然,我們在北半球的產量更多,但這就是發生的事情。
But in some way, we saw Chinese growing to like 105 million tons of imports and Brazil growing its exports from [55 to 70] So we benefited from this in the last few years. But there's no reason to think that you're going to take all of the production in the Southern Hemisphere because that would require a need to stock and have logistical structures set up during the rest of the six months of the year. That's not good for industry, and everyone knows this.
但在某種程度上,我們看到中國的進口量成長到 1.05 億噸,巴西的出口量從 [55% 增加到 70%],因此我們在過去幾年從中受益。但沒有理由認為你會把所有的生產都轉移到南半球,因為那需要在一年剩下的六個月裡進行庫存和建立物流結構。這對行業來說並不好,每個人都知道這一點。
And besides this, when you start thinking in the following way, we experienced, maybe in the last 15 years, differently than what we're going to experience in the last 10 or 15 years, is because of capital (technical difficulty). In the last 10 or 15 years, we had low interest rates. And in the next 10 or 15 years, we're going to have higher interest rates. That's The Economic World telling us that.
除此之外,當你開始這樣思考時,我們過去 15 年的經驗可能與過去 10 年或 15 年的經驗不同,這是因為資本(技術難度)。在過去的10年或15年裡,我們的利率很低。未來 10 年或 15 年內,我們的利率將會上升。這是《經濟世界》告訴我們的。
And this is a pushback when it comes to stocking up. When you have interest rates that are high, you have to work with smaller volumes, right? i think marginally in the soy, complexes exists. But I think that you may have a little more benefit when we're talking about beef, we're talking about pork, chicken, poultry, and cattle. And pork and poultry is just corn and soy, right? And so we're probably going to have an important lever due to the trade war abroad.
這對於庫存的增加來說是一個阻礙。當利率很高時,你必須處理較小的交易量,對嗎?我認為大豆中存在少量複合物。但我認為,當我們談論牛肉、豬肉、雞肉、家禽和牛時,你可能會獲得更多的好處。豬肉和家禽隻是玉米和大豆,對嗎?因此,由於國外的貿易戰,我們可能會擁有一個重要的槓桿。
The challenges that Brazil still continues to position itself in a very peaceful way, in a structured way. People say when you have a war among the big dogs, you really can't want to be part of this, right? So if we can keep a balanced position and a peaceful approach, we'll be able to benefit marginally from this, okay? Thank you, Pedro, for the question.
巴西仍然繼續以非常和平、有條理的方式應對這些挑戰。人們說,當大國之間發生戰爭時,你真的不想參與其中,對嗎?因此,如果我們能夠保持平衡的立場和和平的方式,我們可以從中獲得一點好處,好嗎?謝謝佩德羅提出的問題。
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
That's clear. Thank you for your answer.
這很清楚。謝謝你的回答。
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
And just one last point about the baseline, just to make sure things are not too crazy, we saw an important displacement in the base curve. So when we were looking in February, we were considering minus 30 for April. And that was a screen for the bases that we finished April with 40 positive. So our sensitivity, Pedro, is that it will be around 60 or 70, which should be the bases in this scenario. So it's not that kind of trade war you're going to remember. The first one we had with 240 points. Then you had a price of soy.
關於基線的最後一點,為了確保事情不會太瘋狂,我們看到基曲線上有一個重要的位移。因此,當我們在考慮二月時,我們考慮將四月的氣溫降低 30 度。這是我們四月對基地進行的篩檢,結果顯示有 40 個基地呈陽性。因此,佩德羅,我們的敏感度是大約為 60 或 70,這應該是這種情境下的基礎。所以這不是你記憶中的那種貿易戰。我們的第一個得分是 240 分。然後你就有了大豆的價格。
And I believe we'll get back to having positive bases. But everything was headed towards an excessive production of soy in Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere, that we would have to get back to the negative bases, as we were in the beginning. But this indicates that we'll have positive bases, even with a big supply in the Southern Hemisphere.
我相信我們會重新擁有正面的基礎。但一切都朝著南半球巴西大豆產量過剩的方向發展,我們將不得不回到負值水平,就像一開始那樣。但這表明,即使南半球有大量供應,我們也將擁有積極的基礎。
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
Very clear. Thank you. And just one last point here. What could we expect when it comes to the price of acquisition of the land? Is it possible to give us a number? Or is there still a lot of discussion left on this?
非常清楚。謝謝。這裡還有最後一點。對於土地徵用價格,我們可以期待什麼?可以給我們一個號碼嗎?或者關於這一點還有很多討論?
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, Pedro, as you all know, we love simple things that are easy to explain and complex to execute. We're looking at return rates on perpetuity about 9%, 10%. But on the other hand, we have guys that are even more intelligent with the calculations there. But then you can reach this. And I think there are some components that are going to help. I see [methanol], maybe, with the second harvest. We already had a lot of help from the off-season harvest. Not as much as the last two years, but with the core methanol and this expectation, this should probably get back to being a positive factor that also helps with the composition of the price of land.
好吧,佩德羅,眾所周知,我們喜歡簡單、易於解釋、難以執行的事物。我們預計永久年金的回報率約為 9% 至 10%。但另一方面,我們有一些計算能力更出色的人。但這樣你就可以達到這個目的。我認為有些因素會有所幫助。我認為第二次收穫時可能會有甲醇。淡季收穫已經為我們帶來了很多幫助。雖然不如前兩年那麼多,但有了核心甲醇和這種預期,這應該會重新成為一個積極因素,也有助於土地價格的組成。
And so I would say that I don't see land prices having new peaks, as we had in the last few years. But I also don't see this a very significant reduction if you harvest it nominally in regards to the sacks of soy. If you look at this nominally, you reduce the sacks of soy.
因此我想說,我認為土地價格不會像過去幾年那樣出現新的高峰。但如果你以名義上的大豆數量來計算的話,我也不認為這會是一個非常顯著的減少。如果從名義上看,大豆的數量就減少了。
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
Pedro Fonseca - Analyst
Thank you very much, Andre.
非常感謝,安德烈。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Guilherme, BTG.
吉列爾梅,BTG。
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
If I could just bring in two questions that are very quick on our side. Taking advantage of part of your previous answer about logistics. Brazil really has a logistic issue for grains, and part of this is the storage, right? I remember in the last Investor Day, you guys mentioned that you were interested in looking at this segment a little more. Is this something you're still looking at? Just to get a feel.
我可以快速提出兩個問題嗎?利用您之前關於物流的部分回答。巴西確實存在糧食物流問題,其中一部分是儲存問題,對嗎?我記得在上次投資者日上,你們提到有興趣進一步了解這個部分。您還在關注這個嗎?只是為了感受一下。
And then, shifting topics a bit, I want to understand what you guys expect for the sugarcane harvest, please.
然後,稍微轉換一下話題,我想了解你們對甘蔗收成的期望。
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Guilherme. Great. Two questions that are excellent. Logistics are always going to be on the table, a continental country with so many terrain differences. In the US, we plant soy in the lowlands, right? And so, you have a different structure for transportation that's more standardized, that generates important savings for transportation due to the fuel cost.
謝謝你,吉列爾梅。偉大的。兩個非常好的問題。對於一個地形差異很大的大陸國家來說,物流始終是個需要考慮的問題。在美國,我們在低地種植大豆,對嗎?因此,你們擁有一個更加標準化的不同運輸結構,這可以透過燃料成本為運輸帶來顯著的節省。
When you look at Brazil, Brazil is a country with higher lands, right? So, you have productions in higher and lower lands. And so, you have a terrain profile that's more expensive for logistics. So everyone's going to have to look at logistics one way or the other, because we can't change the terrain in the country, right? So we have to look at logistics, no doubt, always.
你看巴西,巴西是一個地勢較高的國家,對吧?因此,在高地和低地都有生產。因此,地形特徵對於物流來說更加昂貴。所以每個人都必須以某種方式看待物流,因為我們無法改變這個國家的地形,對嗎?因此,毫無疑問,我們必須始終關注物流。
And we'll continue to look at this and we're also considering, Guilherme, that when we consider storage, storage is, in our vision, you need to capture some gains, right? The main gain we have in storage is what we consider the internal freight, right? So that's where you have the harvest and the city today and when you have the storage. And when you consider the trading, you're going to consider this from the farm to the port, and then the difference is very small, right?
我們會繼續關注這個問題,我們也在考慮,Guilherme,當我們考慮儲存時,在我們的願景中,儲存是需要獲得一些收益的,對嗎?我們在倉儲方面的主要收益就是我們所認為的內部貨運,對嗎?這就是今天收穫的果實、城市和儲存的地方。當你考慮貿易時,你會考慮從農場到港口的整個過程,那麼差異就很小了,對嗎?
That's where you have the biggest difference in the storage plans, right? And you have qualitative aspects, the quality of the grains as well as I mentioned. We had a complex unit with 3 millimeters of rain, but I can't project results from a silo plant with a business plan that in the year like this, right? So, the biggest impact is due to this.
這就是儲存計畫中最大的差異,對嗎?而且還有品質方面的問題,如我所提到的,還有穀物的品質。我們有一個複雜的裝置,降雨量為 3 毫米,但我無法預測今年這樣的筒倉工廠的商業計劃的結果,對嗎?所以,最大的影響是由於這個。
And the trade-off of this, Guilherme, is the cost of capital. So if you ask what the trade-off is, it's the cost of capital. Although you -- of course, we had the storage, we covered this in the first harvest, Piaui, last year. We had other storages under discussion, as well, with the factories. But we have a big challenge now, which is the trade-off of the lines for this type of investment.
而吉列爾梅 (Guilherme) 的權衡就是資本成本。所以如果你問權衡是什麼,那就是資本成本。雖然你——當然,我們有儲存,我們在去年皮奧伊州的第一次收穫中就覆蓋了它。我們也與工廠討論了其他儲存問題。但我們現在面臨一個巨大的挑戰,那就是這種投資的線路權衡。
The last investment we had was at about funding with fixed rates about 8.5%. No doubt, 8.5%, I'm a natural builder, right, for silo plants. But with the interest rates we're seeing now, we have to reconsider this. This is a problem that's going to continue to exist. We have a harvest of 320 million and a capacity for a storage of a little less than 200 million. But the beauty is that you have 130 million, which is the second harvest. And you have this moment where both meet, and that's where we're definitely going to keep looking at this. So we should work to increase.
我們最近的投資是固定利率約 8.5% 的融資。毫無疑問,8.5%,對於筒倉植物來說,我是一個天生的建造者,對吧。但考慮到我們現在看到的利率,我們必須重新考慮這一點。這個問題將會持續存在。我們的收穫量為 3.2 億,而儲存能力則略低於 2 億。但美妙的是,你有1.3億,這是第二次收穫。現在,兩者相遇了,我們一定會繼續關注這一點。因此我們應該努力增加。
So also the qualitative aspect as well, and so -- then you have the sugarcane harvest. And we are like talking about this always, right? BrasilAgro here is kind of like, since we're not benefited from the others, in this one we are, right? So, when Bahia is frustrating us, then we -- Bahia is not capable of adjusting the soy in Brazil, So we have a big concentration of these areas in Bahia. And when you have a [frustration in the price], then Bahia you don't necessarily consider the natural price of soy.
因此,還有品質方面的問題,然後你就得到了甘蔗收成。我們總是在談論這個,對吧?BrasilAgro 的情況有點像,因為我們沒有從其他公司受益,所以在這個公司我們受益了,對嗎?因此,當巴伊亞州讓我們感到沮喪時,我們——巴伊亞州就沒有能力調整巴西的大豆,所以我們在巴伊亞州的這些地區集中了大量的大豆。當你對價格感到沮喪時,巴伊亞你不一定會考慮大豆的自然價格。
In sugarcane, it's the opposite. In sugarcane, when you have a frustration in the harvest, you switch the price of the sugarcane and the ethanol, then you have another point that's beautiful, which is the concentration of sugarcane in regions that are less reliant of the Midwest and the South. So we have a lot of sugarcane in Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Goiás, and we also have sugarcane in Sao Paulo, which is the Midwest here.
而甘蔗的情況則相反。對於甘蔗來說,當收成不佳時,甘蔗和乙醇的價格就會發生變化,這樣就會出現另一個美妙之處,那就是甘蔗集中在對中西部和南部依賴程度較低的地區。因此,我們在馬拉尼昂州、馬托格羅索州和戈亞斯州有很多甘蔗,我們在中西部的聖保羅也有甘蔗。
And so this is -- parenthesis here that I like highlighting. BrasilAgro, in this scenario, with the sugarcane and productivity in the Central region. And so, in the north of Parana and the Minas region, it's benefited due to the fact that this is concentrated in other regions. But our operation in Maranhão, which is almost 17,000 hectares of sugarcane has the capacity to irrigate, right? So you have, once again, this production that can also benefit us in this scenario.
這就是──我喜歡強調的括號。在這種情況下,BrasilAgro 擁有中部地區的甘蔗和生產力。因此,巴拉那州北部和米納斯地區受益匪淺,因為其他地區都集中了這一趨勢。但是我們在馬拉尼昂州的經營範圍有近 17,000 公頃的甘蔗田,有灌溉能力,對嗎?因此,您再次看到,這種產品在這種情況下也能使我們受益。
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
But when you look at this from the Brazil level, what are we expecting? Well, I'm going to say, Andre, what do you consider for production?
但當你從巴西的角度來看這個問題時,我們期待什麼呢?好吧,我想說,安德烈,你對生產有什麼考慮?
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, I have a proxy that's very good, which is our sugarcane production in the state of Sao Paulo. We already started, all of our units already started the sugarcane harvest. And we see that sugarcane in Sao Paulo is a little shorter, right? If you consider year-over-year, we see a reduction of productivity. There's a lot of rain now. We had the month of January and February, and then we had March and April. Now the trade-off is we have humidity in the soil, and so we can recover part of this lower productivity caused by the month of January and February.
嗯,我有一個很好的代理,那就是我們聖保羅州的甘蔗產量。我們已經開始了,我們所有的單位都已經開始收割甘蔗了。而且我們看到聖保羅的甘蔗比較矮一點,對吧?如果按年計算,我們會發現生產力有所下降。現在雨下得很大。我們經歷了一月和二月,然後是三月和四月。現在的權衡是土壤濕度,所以我們可以恢復一月和二月造成的部分生產力下降。
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
And why am I talking about recovering part of this? And so like, oh sugarcane is like grass, right? It's the best for growth, right? So you have waters, light, and salt, right? And so we're probably going to have winter that's a little more rainy. And so -- great we solved the water, so we're not going to have such a rupture.
我為什麼要談論恢復其中的一部分?那麼,甘蔗就像草一樣,對嗎?這對成長來說是最好的,對嗎?所以你有水、光和鹽,對嗎?因此,我們可能會迎來雨水更多的冬季。所以——太好了,我們解決了水的問題,所以我們不會再發生這樣的破裂。
Well the other factor is temperature, and so how is that going to behave in winter? Because if the temperature drops drastically, then the sugarcane, it's just the physiology of the plant, right? So even if you have humidity, it's going to help you a little bit, because you won't have so many issues in the end of the cycle, but you don't have as much growth in the sugarcane, right? So Andre consider all of this and give us a number.
那麼另一個因素是溫度,那麼冬天溫度會如何改變呢?因為如果溫度急劇下降,那麼對甘蔗來說,這只是植物的生理現象,對嗎?因此,即使有濕度,也會對你有一點幫助,因為你在週期結束時不會遇到那麼多問題,但甘蔗的生長就不會那麼多,對嗎?所以安德烈考慮了所有這些並給了我們一個數字。
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, everyone was expecting in the sector about 610 million, 620 million. And we believe that even if we are betting on harvest about 580 million, 590 million. So that's our vision for the sugarcane harvest. And 70% of our sugarcane is not in this region that's hindered, right.
嗯,每個人都預計該領域的收入約為 6.1 億、6.2 億。而我們相信,即使我們押注收穫約5.8億、5.9億。這就是我們對甘蔗收穫的願景。而且我們 70% 的甘蔗並不在這個受到阻礙的地區,對吧。
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
Guilherme Guttilla - Analyst
Okay. Perfect, Andre. Thank you.
好的。完美,安德烈。謝謝。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Bruno Tomazetto, Itau BBA.
布魯諾·托馬澤托 (Bruno Tomazetto),伊塔烏 BBA。
Bruno Tomazetto - Analyst
Bruno Tomazetto - Analyst
As you mentioned now to position yourself contrary to the cycle, and also being careful with the cash position in the company, I want to hear your mindset on -- so what has the reality been in the market such as if you lease to be able to plant this based on a producer with less efficiency, to deliver this free to operate, or even --? And at this moment, they're maybe a little more strangled to the capital, and how could you make this possible for producers? I think that's a modality that we explore a little less. I think this could be an interesting discussion.
正如你現在提到的,要讓自己處於逆週期的境地,同時要謹慎對待公司的現金狀況,我想聽聽你的想法——那麼,市場現狀如何呢?例如,如果你租賃一個效率較低的生產商,能夠種植這種作物,免費交付,甚至--?而目前,他們可能對資本的束縛更大了,你怎麼能讓製片人實現這一點?我認為這是我們較少探索的一種方式。我認為這可能是個有趣的討論。
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, Bruno, you have to come and have coffee here with us. You need to come visit our new office. But anyways, let's start. Just to give you a bit of a discussion, it's a great question here. No doubt at all, we're looking at this. We had some recent Board meetings, and we took some proposals here. But the challenge is, as Gustavo mentioned, we're going to have opportunities, and the expansion that we had in the last few years was very leveraged, and so when it comes to pricing, we need to accommodate the pricing.
好吧,布魯諾,你一定要過來和我們一起喝咖啡。你需要來參觀我們的新辦公室。但無論如何,讓我們開始吧。只是想和大家進行一點討論,這是一個很好的問題。毫無疑問,我們正在關注這個問題。我們最近召開了一些董事會會議,並提出了一些建議。但挑戰在於,正如古斯塔沃所提到的那樣,我們將面臨機遇,而且我們在過去幾年中的擴張非常具有槓桿作用,因此在定價方面,我們需要適應定價。
And I'd say that they had a slight setback, very slight setback, but that before the guy would spend like a month, he had 12 sacks of leasing, and then 3 months later, he had 18, and then he already had like 20 sacks leased. I'm not talking about where you have just soy and cotton, right? I'm talking about like harvest -- off-season harvest of soy and corn, and then you can't have 20 sacks, right? They're probably going to be just killing yourself for the landlord.
我想說的是,他們確實遇到了一點挫折,非常小的挫折,但在此之前,這傢伙花了一個月的時間,租了 12 袋,三個月後,租了 18 袋,然後他已經租了 20 袋。我說的並不是只有大豆和棉花,對吧?我說的是收穫——在淡季收穫大豆和玉米,然後你不可能有 20 袋,對吧?他們可能會為了房東而自殺。
But we had a slight recovery here, but it's important to mention what Gustavo said, right? We're going to -- but with that discipline. And our appetite is to not go over 50-50, right? Especially in a moment where you have a high cost of capital, it's important to have the 50-50 to be able to benefit from this. As Gustavo just mentioned, the company has --.
但是我們在這裡略有恢復,但提到古斯塔沃說的話很重要,對吧?我們會的 — — 但要遵守紀律。我們的胃口不會超過 50-50,對嗎?特別是在資本成本很高的時候,獲得 50-50 的利潤來從中獲益是很重要的。正如 Gustavo 剛才提到的,公司--.
We see everyone spending this at CDI plus 4, plus 5. And so, I think this is an important benefit, and I think this can also lead to some positionings, right, but with a lot of caution. This was done 2 or 3 years ago. You had to lease out a lot of areas to transform them, and now the reading is that you are searching for things that are more transformed to cover those, that paid for high fees, but we're kind of covering a different profile, right?
我們看到每個人都在 CDI 上花費 4 倍、5 倍。所以,我認為這是一個重要的好處,我認為這也可以帶來一些定位,對,但要非常謹慎。這是兩三年前完成的。你必須租賃很多區域來改造它們,現在的讀法是,你正在尋找可以進行更多改造的東西來覆蓋那些支付高額費用的地方,但我們覆蓋的範圍有點不同,對嗎?
And then we'll have the area where you have half-half, and you already have the mature area, the area that's going to be transformed. And so we're keeping our eyes open on this, and it's a very interesting question. Players that are capitalized will focus on this sector now. We know that we have space for everyone, so we do expect that we'll have growth in mature areas.
然後,我們將擁有一半一半的區域,並且已經擁有成熟的區域,即將轉變的區域。因此我們對此保持關注,這是一個非常有趣的問題。擁有資本的玩家現在將專注於這一領域。我們知道我們有足夠的空間容納每個人,因此我們確實期望在成熟的領域中成長。
Bruno Tomazetto - Analyst
Bruno Tomazetto - Analyst
Okay. Thank you. We'll definitely schedule that coffee.
好的。謝謝。我們一定會安排那杯咖啡。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Well, I have some other questions I'm going to read, but I think most of them we're already -- so I'm going to switch topics a bit. And to Gustavo, if you guys could please talk about the level of confidence of the management on the dividends and extraordinary impacts in the closing in '24 and '25.
好吧,我還有一些其他問題要讀,但我認為大多數問題我們已經——所以我要稍微轉換主題。而對於古斯塔沃,你們能否談談管理階層對 24 年和 25 年收盤時的股利和非凡影響的信心程度。
And about this situation with the dividends, could -- I'm also going to add on this other question from [Thiago Lima] the same question. It's probable that the company is getting to this new cycle of more acquisitions of farms and also a smaller distribution of dividends, considering to this. And I think we can explore this and then get into the dividends a bit as well.
關於股利的情況,我還要補充 [Thiago Lima] 提出的另一個問題,同樣的問題。考慮到這一點,該公司很可能正在進入一個農場收購增多、股息分配減少的新周期。我認為我們可以對此進行探索,然後稍微討論一下紅利。
Gustavo Javier Lopez - Chief Administrative Officer, Director of Investor Relations, IR Contact Officer
Gustavo Javier Lopez - Chief Administrative Officer, Director of Investor Relations, IR Contact Officer
Thank you for the question. You have to consider that in March 31, we had practically 100% of the costs and with the cash exit. And from now on, what we're going to see is practically BRL900 million of receivables for all of the crops with the sugarcane and -- over BRL200 million of soy and the off-season harvest as well.
謝謝你的提問。你必須考慮到,在 3 月 31 日,我們幾乎已經收回了 100% 的成本,並且已經以現金退出。從現在開始,我們將看到所有作物的應收帳款接近 9 億巴西雷亞爾,包括甘蔗、大豆和淡季收穫的應收帳款超過 2 億巴西雷亞爾。
What we can see is we had a discussion here with the financial committee as well to understand if it was worth it to maybe -- and positive impact as well in the premiums and if we could capture this difference considerably or maybe the renewal of some other loans also to carry on this difference. So these are very complicated moments here, but we understand that the impact of these BRL300 million that was -- you can imagine, with like BRL600 million or BRL700 million -- BRL150 million, and all of the, with the capital financed as well, you're going to end up working for the banks.
我們可以看到,我們也與財務委員會進行了討論,以了解這是否值得——以及對保費是否產生積極影響,以及我們是否可以大幅彌補這一差額,或者是否可以通過續簽一些其他貸款來彌補這一差額。所以現在的情況非常複雜,但我們明白這 3 億雷亞爾的影響——你可以想像,如果有 6 億雷亞爾或 7 億雷亞爾——1.5 億雷亞爾,以及所有這些,加上融資資本,你最終將為銀行工作。
And you have this big change and this happened in eight months, nine months. So normally you have the habit of speaking with chief economists and banks to establish an opinion and to maybe even consider this in the financial committee and our position as well. And to be honest, this is now changed completely.
你經歷瞭如此巨大的變化,這在八個月、九個月內就發生了。因此,通常你會習慣與首席經濟學家和銀行交談以形成意見,甚至可能在財務委員會和我們的立場上考慮這一點。說實話,現在情況已經完全改變了。
So we understand that it's a moment where we should rethink all of our investments and consider this and analyze the returns for each of these crops, as I mentioned. You can see the crops also have a contribution margin that is very attractive if you consider the reais per hectare. But when you see the returns due to the capital that they need to deploy this, then you start really understanding that it doesn't make that much sense.
因此,我們明白現在是我們應該重新考慮所有投資並考慮這一點並分析每種作物的回報的時候了,正如我所提到的。如果考慮每公頃雷亞爾的價值,您會發現農作物的貢獻利潤率非常有吸引力。但是,當你看到他們部署這項技術所需的資本所帶來的回報時,你就會開始真正理解這並沒有多大意義。
So I believe that when we speak about this after the shift and the expectations for the interest rate and considering that the situation is midterm, we're talking about two years and with this level of interest, so we're not concerned because we know we have all of this big stock of receivables from the sale of the fund. And we know that this will lead to possibility -- any possibility to continue to pay dividends.
因此,我相信,當我們在轉變之後談論這個問題以及對利率的預期時,考慮到情況是中期的,我們談論的是兩年的時間和這種利率水平,所以我們並不擔心,因為我們知道我們從出售基金中獲得了大量的應收賬款。我們知道這將帶來可能性——任何繼續支付股息的可能性。
But we understand that we'll have to reconsider part of this to understand the level of dividends that we're going to distribute. So at least a 25% mandatory we're going to pay, but I think that our mindset is how we're going to face this in this next period of October, November. And that's going to depend on a bit more of this.
但我們明白,我們必須重新考慮其中的一部分,以了解我們將要分配的股息水準。因此,我們至少要支付 25% 的強制性費用,但我認為,我們需要考慮的是如何在接下來的 10 月和 11 月期間應對這個問題。而這將取決於更多這一點。
So if you consider also all of the Trump measures as well, we have expectations that these are premiums that are going to be positive, but they could be even more positive even and this could change a lot of the scenario. I think we're in a moment with a lot of uncertainties. We still don't have all of the -- I think we're going to have to analyze this carefully and understand how to apply these resources.
因此,如果您也考慮川普的所有措施,我們預計這些溢價將為正值,但甚至可能更加正值,這可能會改變很多情況。我認為我們正處於一個充滿不確定性的時期。我們仍然沒有擁有所有東西——我認為我們必須仔細分析這一點並了解如何應用這些資源。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Gustavo. I think still on this topic with the allocation, we're going to have -- we have a question from [Rivaldo Batista] about the stock prices versus the value of our assets and if you consider the assessment of the land and the portfolio, it wouldn't it make sense to have a buy-back program for stock that is cheaper?
古斯塔沃。我認為,關於分配這個主題,我們仍然會有——[里瓦爾多·巴蒂斯塔] 向我們提出了一個問題,關於股票價格與資產價值的對比,如果考慮到土地和投資組合的評估,那麼制定一個更便宜的股票回購計劃不是很有意義嗎?
BrasilAgro has the cheapest land, of course, but Andre will talk about this a bit and what we consider as our vision to complement Gustavo's question and answer about the distribution of the proceeds in the year.
當然,BrasilAgro 擁有最便宜的土地,但安德烈將稍微談論這一點,並談談我們認為的願景,以補充古斯塔沃關於當年收益分配的問題和答案。
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, thank you all, everyone. This is just reinforcing that our stock price is very low and cheap, so you can buy it if you're going to make a lot of money off it in the mid- to long-term, I'm sure. No doubt, buy company stock.
好吧,謝謝大家。這只是進一步證明我們的股價非常低且便宜,所以我確信,如果你想在中長期內從中賺很多錢,你可以買它。毫無疑問,買公司股票。
If you look at a historical curve, a company of ours that has projects with returns of six or seven years, no one can look at it in a small vision. So my provocation is look at our historical series of dividends paid out and you'll be able to see how this changes a lot.
如果你看歷史曲線,我們公司有六、七年回報期的項目,沒有人能用狹隘的眼光來看它。因此,我的建議是,看看我們歷史上支付的股息系列,你會看到它發生了多大的變化。
And then a day ago, I was monitoring a report for the bank that was showing the profitability at BrasilAgro in the stock and the dividends paid and ever since our follow-on, it's one of the best profitabilities in the market. So look at our photographs in the company and this is the type of investors all that we like, the investors that really believe in the projects and they know the duration of these projects are long.
一天前,我正在監控銀行的一份報告,該報告顯示了 BrasilAgro 的股票盈利能力和支付的股息,自從我們跟進以來,它一直是市場上盈利能力最好的公司之一。所以看看我們公司的照片,這些都是我們喜歡的投資者類型,他們真正相信這些項目,並且知道這些項目的持續時間很長。
We're buying farms to sell in six, seven, eight years. So at this moment, we have to be very efficient, as Gustavo mentioned, with the capital allocation and we can't stop doing what we've always done, combining strategy of the company. So that's the center point. We're not going to lose off track when it comes to buying back stock specifically. This is something that I discussed. It's a little bell that rings whenever we see these kind of things going on.
我們購買農場,準備在六、七、八年後出售。因此,正如古斯塔沃所提到的那樣,目前我們必須非常有效率地進行資本配置,我們不能停止做我們一直在做的事情,也就是結合公司的策略。這就是中心點。具體到回購股票時,我們不會偏離軌道。這是我討論過的事情。每當我們看到這類事情發生時,它就像一口小鈴鐺。
We see this as a big challenge here also because we need to bring to our investors and it's worth mentioning that when we took on the direct management of the company in 2016, all of the investors were saying, hey, we like the company, we like the thesis, but we like management -- we like everything, but we don't like the liquidity of your stock. So, the only trade-off we see today and this is a concern because, of course, in some way the liquidity of all of the stock, not only BrasilAgro, it's really related to the interest rates.
我們認為這是一個巨大的挑戰,因為我們需要帶給投資者,值得一提的是,當我們在 2016 年直接管理公司時,所有的投資者都在說,嘿,我們喜歡這家公司,我們喜歡這個論點,但我們喜歡管理——我們喜歡一切,但我們不喜歡你們股票的流動性。因此,我們今天看到的唯一權衡是一個令人擔憂的問題,因為當然,在某種程度上,所有股票的流動性,不僅僅是巴西農業,都與利率有關。
So we have to be very cautious at this moment so that we don't impact the liquidity even more. That was already an issue for the company. It's not such an intense problem anymore. It's becoming a bigger problem due to the market situation and they can't act due to the market situation, right? And we are of course, looking at this so we don't cut down on liquidity. So that's the negative trade-off.
因此我們現在必須非常謹慎,以免對流動性造成進一步的影響。這對公司來說已經是一個問題了。這不再是一個嚴重的問題了。由於市場情況,這個問題變得越來越嚴重,而他們卻無法採取行動,對嗎?當然,我們正在考慮這個問題,以便不減少流動性。這就是負面權衡。
So does it make sense to buy back? Yes. But we don't have this concern which is a concern that really changed the company's vision in the last few years, right? So, this is the only point we add to the -- we weigh in because you can be sure that if this is the best decision, we'll present this to our Board.
那麼回購有意義嗎?是的。但我們並沒有這種擔憂,這種擔憂在過去幾年確實改變了公司的願景,對嗎?因此,這是我們唯一要補充的一點——我們之所以要參與,是因為你可以確信,如果這是最好的決定,我們就會將其提交給董事會。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
And so to wrap up here, we have a last question that we didn't cover which is [Reinaldo Verissimo], also an individual investor, in regards to the non-definitions in the Safra Plan and if they in some way impacted BrasilAgro negatively. A lot of people have talked about all-time high harvest on media and how this has been for the company when it comes to cost of capital?
最後總結一下,我們還有最後一個問題沒有涉及,那就是 [Reinaldo Verissimo],他也是一名個人投資者,關於 Safra 計劃中的未定義內容,以及它們是否以某種方式對 BrasilAgro 產生了負面影響。很多人都在談論媒體史上的最高收益,那麼就資本成本而言,這對公司有何影響?
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Andre Guillaumon - Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Well, I think the cost of capital is the point that Gustavo already mentioned but I'm going to now just think about the sector as a whole and not just BrasilAgro, right? But we know what's going on in the monetary situation in the country and we know that the Safra Plan has an amount of resources to balance out the interest rates. So what happened in the last few years, and especially in the last year, the Central Bank basically destined to this line BRL20 billion.
嗯,我認為資本成本是 Gustavo 已經提到的要點,但我現在要考慮整個行業,而不僅僅是 BrasilAgro,對嗎?但我們知道該國的貨幣狀況,也知道薩夫拉計劃擁有一定數量的資源來平衡利率。那麼過去幾年發生了什麼,特別是去年,中央銀行基本上為這條線路注入了 200 億巴西雷亞爾。
When you look at BRL20 billion, what is this? Interest for the small producers or those 7.5% to 8% and for the big producers, the 10.5% and CDI back there, when the government balanced this out, we're talking about a CDI at like 11%, 11.25%, I'm not sure exactly. It was around 11%. They had to balance this difference out and it was spread between 10.5% and a difference that was spread of [8.5% to 11%].
當你看到200億巴西雷亞爾時,這是什麼?對於小型生產者的利息為 7.5% 到 8%,對於大生產者的利息為 10.5%,而當政府平衡這些時,我們談論的 CDI 是 11%、11.25% 左右,我不太清楚具體數字。大約是 11%。他們必須平衡這個差異,並將其分佈在 10.5% 和[8.5% 至 11%]。
And so, that helped to give us that number we all know, the BRL400 billion that were used for the Safra Plan. So what happened in our vision? Due to the monetary tightening, we hope that the government and associations are working on this to try to increase the amount for trading this, but this is not going to be 8.5% to 14% because if you do that, 8.5% to 14% or 10.5% to 14%, the resources are not going to irrigate the system. So for sure, the government will increase this -- the interest rates and that are subsidized, but these resources adopted for subvention don't have such a negative impact.
因此,這有助於我們得出眾所周知的數字,即用於薩夫拉計劃的 4000 億巴西雷亞爾。那麼我們的願景中發生了什麼事?由於貨幣緊縮,我們希望政府和協會能夠努力提高交易額,但不會達到 8.5% 到 14% 的水平,因為如果這樣做,8.5% 到 14% 或 10.5% 到 14% 的水平,資源就不會用於灌溉系統。因此,政府肯定會提高利率,並提供補貼,但用於補貼的這些資源不會產生如此負面影響。
So this is our challenge and we want to bring in other components and that the government can understand the efficiency of the allocation of these resources and trying along with the associations and the work that [FPA] has been doing to have more of a budget for this. So in the case of the company, we have 30% of our resources coming from this and 70% come from our own capital.
所以這是我們的挑戰,我們希望引入其他組成部分,讓政府了解這些資源的分配效率,並與協會和 [FPA] 一直在做的工作一起努力,為此爭取更多的預算。所以就公司而言,我們有 30% 的資源來自此,70% 來自我們自己的資本。
So the 30%, how did this impact our results? Well, if we had BRL300 million and we had an interest rate of 10.5%, if this business goes to 11.5% or 12%, then you have 1.5% or 2% more. 1.5% or 2% more from BRL300 million would be an amount that's significant if you look at this year-over-year and we went from a line of maybe subsidized resources that had an expense of about BRL20 million to almost BRL45 million of current resources, right?
那麼這 30% 對我們的結果有何影響?好吧,如果我們有 3 億巴西雷亞爾,利率為 10.5%,如果這項業務的利率上升到 11.5% 或 12%,那麼您的利潤就會增加 1.5% 或 2%。如果全年比較的話,從 3 億雷亞爾增加 1.5% 或 2% 是一個相當可觀的數額,而且我們的支出從大約 2000 萬雷亞爾的補貼資源增加到了近 4500 萬雷亞爾的當前資源,對嗎?
So then you have long-term and here I'm just talking about the working capital. So this is the effect, but this effect is for everyone, right? So we have to be a lot better than the average. And this is an effect that is here for the entire supply chain, right? So just as it brings challenges, it also brings opportunities.
那你就有長期的,這裡我只談營運資金。所以這就是效果,但是這個效果是針對所有人的,對嗎?所以我們必須比平均好很多。這對整個供應鏈都有影響,對嗎?因此,它既帶來挑戰,也帶來機會。
And then also when you consider a bit of the question from Pedro on acquisition, et cetera. So we really have been very cautious about this and this is a moment where the company continues to grow, but keeps an eye open on cash, debt, and opportunities and capturing the best for the investors in the company.
然後,當您考慮佩德羅關於收購等問題時。因此,我們對此確實非常謹慎,目前公司正在繼續成長,但我們會密切關注現金、債務和機會,並為公司的投資者爭取最大的利益。
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Ana Paula Zerbinati - Investor Relations, Communications and Capital Market Head
Excellent. Thank you once again everyone for participating. Thank you, Gustavo and Andre for your participation. If you still have questions, me and my team at IR will be available to clarify any other questions, so feel free to contact us and send any other questions. Have a great day and see you next quarter.
出色的。再次感謝大家的參與。感謝 Gustavo 和 Andre 的參與。如果您還有疑問,我和 IR 的團隊將隨時為您解答任何其他問題,因此請隨時與我們聯繫並發送任何其他問題。祝您有愉快的一天,下個季度再見。
Editor
Editor
Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.
本記錄中的英文陳述是由現場翻譯人員宣讀的。翻譯由贊助此活動的公司提供。