Lear Corp (LEA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone and welcome to the Lear Corporation third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安，歡迎參加李爾公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。所有參與者將處於只聽模式。（操作員指令）

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Tim Brumbaugh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

今天的演講結束後，將有機會提問。另請注意，今天的活動正在記錄。現在，我想把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Tim Brumbaugh。請繼續。

Thanks, Jamie. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us for Lear's third quarter, 2024 earnings call. Presenting today are Ray Scott, Lear's President and CEO and Jason Cardew, Senior Vice President and CFO. Other members of Lear's senior management team have also joined us on the call. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. You can find a copy of the presentation that accompanies these remarks at ir.lear.com.

謝謝，傑米。大家早安，謝謝您參加 Lear 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天出席的有李爾公司總裁兼執行長雷‧史考特 (Ray Scott) 和高級副總裁兼財務長傑森‧卡杜 (Jason Cardew)。李爾公司其他高階管理團隊的成員也參加了這次電話會議。在準備好的發言之後，我們將開始問答環節。您可以在 ir.lear.com 上找到隨這些評論一起發布的簡報的副本。

Before Ray begins, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that as we conduct this call, we will be making forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding Lear's expectations for the future as detailed in our safe harbor statement on slide 2, our actual results could differ materially from those forward-looking statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10-Q and other periodic reports.

在Ray 開始之前，我想藉此機會提醒您，在我們進行此電話會議時，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，以幫助您了解Lear 對未來的期望，如幻燈片2 上的安全港聲明中所述由於我們最新的 10-Q 和其他定期報告中討論的許多因素，我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

I also want to remind you that during today's presentation, we will refer to non-GAAP financial metrics. You are directed to the slides in the appendix of our presentation for the reconciliation of non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The agenda for today's call on slide 3.

我還想提醒大家，在今天的示範中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們簡報附錄中的投影片，以了解非 GAAP 項目與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表。今天的會議議程在第 3 頁的幻燈片上。

First, Ray will review highlights from the quarter and provide a business update. Jason will then review our third-quarter financial results and provide an update on our full year financial guidance. Finally, Ray will offer some concluding remarks. Following the formal presentation, we'd be happy to take your questions. I'd like to invite Ray to begin.

首先，雷將回顧本季的亮點並提供業務最新情況。然後，傑森將回顧我們的第三季財務業績並提供全年財務指導的最新資訊。最後，Ray 將做一些總結性發言。正式演講結束後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。我想請雷開始。

Thanks Tim. Please turn to slide 5 which highlights key financial metrics for the third quarter of 2024. We've delivered $5.6 billion of revenue in the third quarter despite a very challenging production environment. Core operating earnings were $257 million or 4.6% of net sales. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.89, an increase of 1% driven by the benefit of our share repurchase program.

謝謝蒂姆。請翻到投影片 5，其中重點介紹了 2024 年第三季的關鍵財務指標。儘管生產環境非常嚴峻，但我們在第三季仍實現了 56 億美元的收入。核心營業利潤為 2.57 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 4.6%。調整後每股收益為 2.89 美元，成長 1%，這得益於我們的股票回購計畫的收益。

Operating cash flow was $183 million in the third quarter and free cash flow was $51 million.

第三季營運現金流為1.83億美元，自由現金流為5,100萬美元。

Slide 6 summarizes key business and financial highlights from the quarter. Total company revenue outperformed the market by 3 percentage points with sales in both segments beating the industry. 5 percentage points in these systems and 3 percentage points in seating. Revenue outperformed industry production in each of our major regions.

投影片 6 總結了本季的主要業務和財務亮點。公司總收入比市場高出 3 個百分點，兩個部門的銷售額都超過行業。這些系統中增加了 5 個百分點，座位中增加了 3 個百分點。我們每個主要地區的收入都超過了行業產出。

During the quarter, we repurchased $209 million of shares and paid $43 million in dividends. We continue to repurchase additional shares throughout our quiet period. Achieving the full year $325 million target communicated in our second quarter earnings call. Adjusted earnings per share grew by 1% in the third quarter driven by the benefits of our share repurchase program, despite the decline in the industry production. In China, our strong relationship with the domestic automakers led to significant new business awards in the quarter.

本季度，我們回購了價值 2.09 億美元的股票，並支付了 4,300 萬美元的股息。我們在整個靜默期內繼續回購額外股份。實現我們在第二季財報電話會議上宣布的 3.25 億美元的全年目標。儘管行業產量有所下降，但受股票回購計畫效益的推動，第三季調整後每股收益成長了 1%。在中國，我們與國內汽車製造商的牢固關係為我們帶來了本季重要的新業務獎項。

In Seating, we won several new awards with BYD, Xiaomi, and Seres. The new programs combined are expected to generate average annual sales of over $100 million. In these systems, we will be supplying wiring for the for several upcoming platforms to the Dongfeng Group.

在座椅領域，我們與比亞迪、小米、賽力斯共同獲得多個新獎項。這些新項目預計將產生超過 1 億美元的年平均銷售額。在這些系統中，我們將為東風集團即將推出的幾個平台提供線路。

Our first ComfortFlex module launched in July with Volvo by combining heat, ventilation, and massage components into a more efficient solution. We reduce the thermal comfort part numbers shipped to the just in time assembly plant by 50% and our system enhanced the end customer experience by improving pressure and sensation to the occupant by 30%. Interest for our ComfortFlex solutions continues to grow. During the quarter, we were awarded our second program with a premium European OEM.

我們的第一個 ComfortFlex 模組於 7 月與沃爾沃合作推出，它將加熱、通風和按摩組件結合成更有效率的解決方案。我們將運送到準時裝配廠的熱舒適部件數量減少了 50%，並且我們的系統透過將乘客的壓力和感覺提高 30% 來增強最終客戶體驗。對我們的 ComfortFlex 解決方案的興趣持續增長。在本季度，我們獲得了與歐洲優質 OEM 合作的第二個項目。

We will provide the heat and pneumatics as well as other components in a ComfortFlex module. For Hyundai, we will be providing steering wheel heat combined with hands on detection sensors. Our innovative products continue to earn recognition from key industry groups, the zone control module, our E-Systems team developed was named an automotive News PACE Award Finalist. Its highly configurable software increases the ability to scale.

我們將提供 ComfortFlex 模組中的熱量和氣動裝置以及其他組件。對於現代汽車，我們將提供結合方向盤加熱和手部檢測感測器的功能。我們的創新產品繼續贏得主要行業團體的認可，我們的 E-Systems 團隊開發的區域控制模組被評為汽車新聞 PACE 獎決賽入圍者。其高度可配置的軟體增強了擴展能力。

The unique design improves the flexibility to adapt to changes in the wire harness connectors enabling increased automation for manufacturing. The first generation models are expected to launch in 2025 with plans for broader adoption.

獨特的設計提高了適應線束連接器變化的靈活性，從而提高了製造的自動化程度。第一代車型預計將於 2025 年推出，並計劃更廣泛的採用。

Lair continues to lead the JD Power US seed quality and satisfaction study with eight top awards, more than double the awards of any other seat supplier. They swept the premium car category and won an additional top three finish in the premium SUV category. These awards once again solidify our leadership and quality.

Lair 繼續在 JD Power 美國種子品質和滿意度研究中保持領先，榮獲八項最高獎項，是其他座椅供應商所獲獎項的兩倍多。他們橫掃了豪華轎車類別，並在豪華 SUV 類別中獲得前三名。這些獎項再次鞏固了我們的領導地位和品質。

Turning to slide 7, I will provide an update on the initiatives we are pursuing to achieve long term sustainable revenue and earnings growth through innovation in both our products and our processes. Our customers are reassessing their power train strategies to align with customer demand while meeting regulatory requirements. Our product portfolio is largely powertrain agnostic allowing us to win new business for any new vehicle. Chinese domestic automakers continue to gain market share.

轉到第 7 張投影片，我將介紹我們為透過產品和流程創新實現長期可持續收入和盈利增長而採取的舉措的最新情況。我們的客戶正在重新評估他們的動力傳動系統策略，以符合客戶需求並滿足監管要求。我們的產品組合基本上與動力系統無關，這使我們能夠為任何新車型贏得新業務。中國本土汽車製造商的市佔率持續上升。

Leveraging our relationships with key customers to win new business has been a priority for both seating and E-Systems. Our new business wins with BYD, Xiaomi, Seres, and the Dongfeng Group are a result of this effort. New programs with Leap Motor, Neo, and Xiaomi were key contributors to our backlog this quarter. We are seeing additional opportunities as these automakers are looking to grow globally.

利用與關鍵客戶的關係來贏得新業務一直是座椅和 E-Systems 的首要任務。我們與比亞迪、小米、賽力斯和東風集團等達成的新業務就是這些努力的成果。與 Leap Motor、Neo 和小米合作的新項目是我們本季積壓訂單的主要貢獻者。隨著這些汽車製造商尋求全球發展，我們看到了更多的機會。

Our focus on innovation and automation through idea by layer is driving growth opportunities for our products, while further reducing our manufacturing costs. The internal design and superior execution of our new capital deployment in our facilities allow us to bring products to market quicker while reducing the cost. The efficiency actions we have taken along with the investments in automation and restructuring, have us on track to reach our head count targets for the year.

我們專注於透過逐層構思進行創新和自動化，這為我們的產品帶來了成長機會，同時進一步降低了我們的製造成本。我們設施中新資本部署的內部設計和卓越執行使我們能夠更快地將產品推向市場並降低成本。我們採取的效率行動以及在自動化和重組方面的投資使我們有望實現今年的員工人數目標。

E-Systems has already achieved its 6% reduction target and seating is on pace to meet or exceed its 8% target. Much of the improvement is coming from our most labor-intensive products such as cut and sold, wiring and other component facilities. Well, largely in Mexico as well as from our footprint actions in Europe. In seating, the interest from our customers for our ComfortFlex and ComfortMax seat price continues to grow.

E-Systems 已經實現了其 6% 的減排目標，而座椅部門也有望達到或超過其 8% 的目標。大部分的改進來自於我們最勞力密集的產品，例如裁剪和銷售、配線和其他組件設施。嗯，主要是在墨西哥，以及我們在歐洲的足跡行動。在座椅方面，客戶對我們的 ComfortFlex 和 ComfortMax 座椅價格的興趣持續增長。

The launch of the first ComfortFlex module in additional business ones, illustrates the progress we have made. Our list of opportunities for ComfortFlex, ComfortMax, and FlexaAir has grown to 62 projects with 22 OEMs, an increase of 40% since the end of 2023. These projects will enable us to achieve our $1 billion revenue target for thermal comfort by 2027. LearVUE is our AI-based proprietary vision system technology.

第一款 ComfortFlex 模組在其他業務中的推出顯示了我們所取得的進展。我們針對 ComfortFlex、ComfortMax 和 FlexaAir 的機會名單已增至 62 個項目，涉及 22 個 OEM，自 2023 年底以來增長了 40%。這些項目將使我們在 2027 年前實現 10 億美元的熱舒適收入目標。LearVUE 是我們基於人工智慧的專有視覺系統技術。

Leveraging the software capabilities we have acquired over the last several years, LearVUE enables us to use low cost off the shelf cameras to develop vision system solutions for many applications across both businesses. Our first application for LearVUE enhances our trim defect detection to improve consistency and quality in our just in time plants. We have identified additional opportunities to utilize LearVUE such as for wire connection detection and other end of line testing application.

利用我們在過去幾年中獲得的軟體功能，LearVUE 使我們能夠使用低成本的現成相機為兩家公司的許多應用開發視覺系統解決方案。我們對 LearVUE 的首次應用增強了我們的裝飾缺陷檢測能力，從而提高了準時工廠的一致性和品質。我們已經發現了利用 LearVUE 的其他機會，例如用於線路連接檢測和其他線路末端測試應用。

We continue to expand the use of Thagora automated leather cutting technology and are extending the use of Palantir cloud-based operating systems, Foundry for digital reporting.

我們繼續擴大 Thagora 自動皮革切割技術的使用，並擴展 Palantir 基於雲端的作業系統 Foundry 的使用，用於數位報告。

Our teams continue to develop new use cases for the Foundry software to improve real time decision making on the plant floor. In these systems, our focused product portfolio has helped improve margins over the last two years. The growth of the connection systems capabilities we acquired through M&M has been a key driver of that improvement. We continue to expand our vertical integration opportunities and extend our footprint to serve the European market.

我們的團隊繼續為 Foundry 軟體開發新的用例，以改善工廠車間的即時決策。在這些系統中，我們重點關注的產品組合在過去兩年中幫助提高了利潤率。我們透過 M&M 獲得的連接系統能力的成長是這項改進的主要驅動力。我們繼續擴大我們的垂直整​​合機會並擴展我們的業務範圍以服務歐洲市場。

The new innovations we are developing in our core products such as our PACE Award climate zone control module will continue to drive growth in these systems. The flexibility we are designing into our products allows us to increase the use of automation, further improving the cost structure. To offset labor inflation, we continue to aggressively shift our wiring operations to new lower cost manufacturing locations. We are leveraging our footprint in North Africa to supply the European markets.

我們在核心產品中開發的新創新，例如我們的 PACE 獎氣候區控制模組，將繼續推動這些系統的發展。我們在產品設計中體現的靈活性使我們能夠提高自動化的使用，從而進一步改善成本結構。為了抵​​消勞動力通膨，我們繼續積極地將我們的佈線業務轉移到新的成本更低的製造地點。我們正在利用我們在北非的業務來供應歐洲市場。

In North America, we are moving more wire operations to Honduras. Today, our head count is about 60% in Mexico and about 40% in Honduras. We expect the shift to 40% in Mexico and 60% in Honduras over the next couple of years. Our focus on process innovation combined with restructuring our footprints and reduced excess capacity has us well positioned for any production environment.

在北美，我們正在將更多的電線業務轉移到宏都拉斯。今天，我們的員工約有 60% 在墨西哥，約有 40% 在宏都拉斯。我們預計未來幾年墨西哥的轉變將達到 40%，洪都拉斯的轉變將達到 60%。我們注重流程創新，同時重組我們的足跡並減少過剩產能，這使得我們能夠很好地適應任何生產環境。

Slide 8 -- excuse me, slide 8 highlights Lear's growth with Chinese domestic automakers. Lear has 30 years of automotive experience in China. Over that time, Leir has strengthened its local presence, built strong relationships with key customers and has become the clear leader in luxury seating.

第 8 張投影片——抱歉，第 8 張投影片重點介紹了李爾與中國國內汽車製造商共同成長的過程。李爾在中國擁有30年汽車產業經驗。在此期間，Leir 加強了其在當地的影響力，與主要客戶建立了牢固的關係，並成為了豪華座椅領域的領導者。

We continue to grow with key established customers such as BDY, Geely, Jan, and the Dongfeng Group, and see additional opportunities with the emerging automakers such as Xiaomi, Neo, Leap Motors, and Next Thing.

我們繼續與 BDY、吉利、Jan 和東風集團等主要老客戶共同成長，並與小米、Neo、零跑車和 Next Thing 等新興汽車製造商一起看到更多合作機會。

The new business wins with BYD are consistent with our target of supplying approximately 30% of their seats in the next few years.

與比亞迪達成的新業務與我們未來幾年為其供應約30%座椅的目標一致。

The portion of our total revenue from Chinese domestics grew from about 20% in 2021 to roughly 30% in 2024. During that time, our total revenue in China grew from about $4 billion to approximately $5 billion. Despite the significant shift in market share from the multinational automakers to Chinese domestic OEMs.

我們來自中國國內市場的總收入份額從 2021 年的約 20% 增長到 2024 年的約 30%。在此期間，我們在中國的總收入從約 40 億美元成長至約 50 億美元。儘管市場份額已從跨國汽車製造商顯著轉移到中國本土汽車製造商。

By 2027 we expect our revenue to grow on average 6% annually to approximately $6 billion. As a result, the portion of our revenue coming from Chinese domestic automakers is expected to approach 50%.

到 2027 年，我們預計我們的收入將以年平均 6% 的速度成長，達到約 60 億美元。因此，來自中國本土汽車製造商的收入份額預計將接近50%。

China continues to be an important market for Lear and our relationship with the key domestic automakers is driving consistent growth. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Jason for the financial review.

中國仍然是李爾的重要市場，我們與國內主要汽車製造商的關係正在推動持續成長。現在我想將電話轉給傑森進行財務審查。

Thanks, Ray. Slide 10 shows vehicle production and key exchange rates for the third quarter. Global production decreased 5% compared to the same period last year and was down 6% on a Lear sales rated basis. Production volumes decreased by 5% in North America, 6% in Europe, and 3% in China. From a currency standpoint, the US dollar weakened against both the EUR4.1 and R&B.

謝謝，雷。幻燈片 10 顯示了第三季的汽車產量和主要匯率。全球產量與去年同期相比下降了 5%，以李爾汽車銷售計算則下降了 6%。北美產量下降了5%，歐洲下降了6%，中國下降了3%。從貨幣角度來看，美元兌歐元和英鎊都走弱。

Slide 11 highlights Lear’s growth over market. In the third quarter revenue, outperformed the industry in both seating and E-Systems as well as in each of our major markets. Total company growth over market was 3% percentage points with seeding at 3% in these systems at 5%. Growth of the market was particularly strong in North America at 7 percentage points, reflecting favorable backlog and platform mix in both segments.

投影片 11 重點介紹了 Lear 在市場上的成長。第三季的收入，無論是座椅、電子系統或我們每個主要市場，都超過了行業平均水平。整體而言，公司市場成長率為 3% 個百分點，其中這些系統的種子資金為 3%，成長率為 5%。北美市場的成長尤其強勁，達到 7 個百分點，反映出兩個領域良好的積壓訂單和平台組合。

Lear benefited from higher bins on General Motors full size trucks and SUV as well as conclusive wins on the Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer. UE systems business on the General Motors Altium platform including the Honda Prologue and Accurate ZDX as well as higher volumes on the General Motors of Auto and Canyon and Ford super duty contributed to the strong growth in the region.

由於通用汽車全尺寸卡車和 SUV 車型的更高銷量，以及 Jeep Wagoneer 和 Grand Wagoneer 車型的決定性勝利，Lear 車型也從中獲益匪淺。通用汽車 Altium 平台上的 UE 系統業務（包括本田 Prologue 和 Accurate ZDX）以及通用汽車 Auto、Canyon 和福特超級跑車的銷量增加促進了該地區的強勁增長。

In Europe sales outperformed industry production by 2 percentage points driven by new Comfort programs including the BMW 5 series and seeing as well as new business with BMW and Renault in E-Systems. Lower volumes in several s BMW and VW programs negatively impact the seeding platform mix in Europe.

在歐洲，銷售額比行業產量高出 2 個百分點，這得益於包括寶馬 5 系在內的新型舒適型項目以及與寶馬和雷諾在 E-Systems 領域的新業務。BMW和大眾多個專案產量下降對歐洲的種子平台組合產生了負面影響。

In China. Revenue outperformed the market by 1% point driven by new business on the Xiaomi TSU-7 and two lead motor programs in seating and the Xang Mona in E-Systems lower volumes and several GM programs and seeding on programs in these systems offset a portion of the outperformance in China.

在中國。收入超過市場1 個百分點，主要得益於小米TSU-7 的新業務、座椅中的兩個主要電機項目以及E-Systems 中的Xang Mona 的銷量下降以及幾個通用汽車項目以及這些系統項目的播種，抵消了部分在中國的優異表現。

We continue to grow our share with key Chinese automakers such as BYD and Xiaomi, which will further improve our customer mix in China going forward. When you include revenue from our non-consolidated joint ventures, our China growth over market improves by 5 points to 6% for the quarter.

我們繼續擴大與比亞迪和小米等中國主要汽車製造商的份額，這將進一步改善我們未來在中國的客戶結構。如果算上我們非合併合資企業的收入，本季我們中國市場的成長率將提高 5 個百分點，達到 6%。

Turning to slide 12. I'll highlight our financial results for the third quarter of 2024. Our sales declined 3% year over year to $5.6 billion excluding the impact of foreign exchange and commodities sales were also down 3% reflecting lower volumes on their platforms, partially offset by the addition of new business in both of our business segments for operating earnings were $257 million compared to $267 million last year.

翻到第 12 張投影片。我將重點介紹我們 2024 年第三季的財務表現。除外匯和商品銷售的影響外，我們的銷售額年減3% 至56 億美元，也下降了3%，反映了其平台銷售的下降，但部分抵銷了我們兩個業務部門新增業務帶來的經營利潤2.57 億美元，去年同期為 2.67 億美元。

Despite lower sales, operating margins were flat year over year at 4.6% driven by positive net performance. And our margin to create a backlog adjusted earnings per share were $0.89 as compared to EUR a year ago, reflecting the benefit of our share repurchase program.

儘管銷售額下降，但由於淨業績良好，營業利潤率與去年同期持平，為 4.6%。與一年前相比，我們的積壓訂單調整後每股盈餘利潤率為 0.89 美元，反映了我們的股票回購計畫帶來的好處。

Third quarter operating cash flow was $183 million compared to $404 million last year primarily due to the impact of Lear's fiscal calendar on the timing of customer collections slide 13 explains the variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the seating segment.

第三季營運現金流為1.83 億美元，而去年同期為4.04 億美元，這主要由於李爾公司的財政日曆對客戶收款時間的影響，第13 頁解釋了座椅部門的銷售額和調整後營運利潤率的差異。

Sales for the third quarter were $4.1 billion. A decrease of $173 million or 4% from 2023 excluding the impact of foreign exchange and commodities sales were down 3% due to lower BNDS on their platforms partially offset by the addition of new business. Adjusted earnings were $262 million down $13 million or 5% from 2023, with adjusted operating’s margins, of 6.4% operating margins were flat compared to last year. As the impact from lower production on key layer platforms was offset by positive net performance in the line of our margin accredited block.

第三季的銷售額為 41 億美元。不包括外匯和大宗商品的影響，與 2023 年相比減少 1.73 億美元或 4%，由於其平台上的 BNDS 較低，但新業務的增加部分抵消了這一下降 3%。調整後收益為 2.62 億美元，較 2023 年下降 1,300 萬美元（即 5%），調整後營業利潤率為 6.4%，與去年持平。由於關鍵層平台產量下降的影響被我們保證金認可區塊的正淨表現所抵消。

Slide 14 explains the variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the ESV segment sales for the third quarter were $1.5 billion. A decrease of $23 million or 2% from 2023 excluding the impact of foreign exchange and commodities sales were down 1% driven primarily by lower volumes on their platforms, partially offset by our strong backlog. Adjusted earnings were adjusted $74 million or 5% of sales compared to $79 million and 5.3% of sales in 2023.

幻燈片 14 解釋了 ESV 部門銷售額和調整後營業利潤率的差異，第三季的銷售額為 15 億美元。與2023 年相比，不包括外匯和大宗商品銷售的影響，下降了2300 萬美元或2%，下降了1%，主要原因是其平台交易量下降，但我們強勁的積壓訂單部分抵消了這一影響。調整後收益為 7,400 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5%，而 2023 年為 7,900 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.3%。

The decline in margins reflected lower volumes in their platforms partially offset by a margin of creative backlog and strong net operating performance.

利潤率的下降反映了其平台銷量的下降，但創意積壓利潤率和強勁的淨營運業績部分抵消了這一下降。

Now shifting to our 2024 outlook, slide 15 provides global vehicle production volume and currency assumptions that form the basis of our full year outlook. We've updated our global production assumptions which are based on several sources including internal estimates, customer production schedules, and S&P forecasts.

現在轉向我們的 2024 年展望，第 15 張幻燈片提供了全球汽車產量和貨幣假設，這些假設構成了我們全年展望的基礎。我們更新了全球生產假設，該假設基於內部估計、客戶生產計劃和標準普爾預測等多種來源。

Our production assumptions are lower than the latest S&P forecasts across our key regions, reflecting our most recent customer production schedules and our expectations regarding near term market conditions. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we assume that global industry production will be down 4% compared to 2023 and nearly 4.5% on a Lear sales weighted basis.

我們對主要地區生產的假設低於標準普爾的最新預測，反映了我們最新的客戶生產計劃以及我們對近期市場狀況的預期。在我們的指導範圍的中點，我們假設全球產業產量將比 2023 年下降 4%，以李爾銷售加權計算將下降近 4.5%。

This is lower than our prior guidance assumption of a 3% decrease in production volumes. From a currency perspective, we are maintaining an average euro exchange rate of $1.485 per EUR and an average Chinese RMB exchange rate of 7.2. R&B to the dollar. Slide 16 provides detail on our outlook for 2024. Key changes to the midpoint of our guidance include the following. Our revenue is now expected to be approximately $23 billion. Core operating earnings are expected to be approximately $1.07 billion.

這低於我們先前預測的產量下降 3% 的水平。從貨幣角度來看，我們維持歐元平均匯率為1歐元兌1.485美元，人民幣平均匯率為7.2。 R&B 對美元而言。幻燈片 16 詳細介紹了我們對 2024 年的展望。我們指導中點的關鍵變化包括以下內容。我們現在預計收入約為 230 億美元。核心營業利潤預計約 10.7 億美元。

We are reducing our outlook for capital expenditures by $75 million primarily as a result of slower customer ramp up on various new vehicles and to continue aggressively managing capacity utilization. Operating cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.14 billion.

我們將資本支出預期下調 7,500 萬美元，主要原因是客戶對各種新車的追加速度放緩，並且為了繼續積極管理產能利用率。預計營運現金流約11.4億美元。

The midpoint of our full year free cash flow guidance remains at $560 million with the benefit of lower capital expenditures, offsetting the impact of lower earnings. Slide 17 compares our current outlook to our prior outlook for sales and core operating earnings. We're forecasting the mid-point of our 2024 sales outlook to be down $400 million from our July outlook primarily reflecting the impact of reductions in vehicle production volumes. The midpoint of our core operating earnings outlook is expected to be down $50 million from our prior outlook.

由於資本支出減少，我們全年自由現金流預期的中點仍為 5.6 億美元，抵銷了收益下降的影響。幻燈片 17 將我們目前的銷售和核心營業利潤展望與先前的展望進行了比較。我們預測 2024 年銷售前景的中位數將比 7 月的預測下降 4 億美元，這主要反映了汽車產量下降的影響。我們的核心營業利潤預期中位數預計比先前的預期低 5,000 萬美元。

The reduction in our core operating and earnings outlook reflects the impact of lower volumes partially offset by improvements in net performance.

我們核心營運和獲利前景的下調反映了銷售下降的影響，但淨業績的改善部分抵消了這一影響。

Slide 18 provides detail on the drivers of net performance. Our consistent investment in operational efficiency is position there as the most competitive supplier in terms of both quality and cost. Over the past three years, we have generated an average of 40 basis points of margin growth per year feeding and 50 basis points per year in E-Systems through net performance.

投影片 18 詳細介紹了網路效能的驅動因素。我們持續對營運效率進行投資，使我們成為品質和成本方面最具競爭力的供應商。在過去三年中，我們透過淨績效實現了平均每年 40 個基點的利潤成長，E-Systems 實現了每年 50 個基點的利潤成長。

In 2024, we expect 30 basis points in net performance and seating and 40 basis points in these systems driven by investments in advanced manufacturing and restructuring as well as from commercial recoveries. This performance is expected to improve operating earnings by approximately $100 million helping to partially offset the negative impact of lower industry volumes. Through strategic acquisition acquisitions of automation capabilities. We have transformed our manufacturing processes resulting in improved quality and efficiency.

到 2024 年，我們預計淨績效和席位將增加 30 個基點，這些系統將增加 40 個基點，這得益於對先進製造業和重組的投資以及商業復甦。預計這一業績將使營業收入提高約 1 億美元，有助於部分抵消行業銷量下降帶來的負面影響。透過策略收購獲得自動化能力。我們改變了製造流程，從而提高了品質和效率。

Deployment of these capabilities will allow us to accelerate our efforts and continue offsetting wage inflation while supporting margin expansion in both segments. Our plans to reduce head count by 8% in seating and 6% of these systems as compared to the end of 2023 remain on track. These restructuring actions will help to align capacity with demand while shifting our footprint to regions with lower labor costs including North Africa and Central America.

部署這些能力將使我們能夠加快努力並繼續抵消薪資通膨，同時支持兩個部門的利潤率擴大。與 2023 年底相比，我們的計畫是將座位數量減少 8%，將系統數量減少 6%，這項計畫仍在按計畫進行。這些重組措施將有助於使產能與需求保持一致，同時將我們的業務轉移到北非和中美洲等勞動成本較低的地區。

Our strong competitive position and the value proposition we bring to our customers helps us with commercial negotiations to address changes in production volumes, inflation, and other matters. We've continued to focus on negotiating commercial agreements that ensure sustainable financial returns.

我們強大的競爭地位和為客戶帶來的價值主張有助於我們進行商業談判，以應對生產量變化、通貨膨脹和其他問題。我們繼續專注於談判確保可持續財務回報的商業協議。

Moving to slide 19, we highlight our commitment to continue to return capital to shareholders. In the third quarter, we accelerated share repurchases buying back $209 million worth of stock. We continued to repurchase shares in our quiet period and achieved our target for the year of $325 million with capacity for further repurchases in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date, we have reduced our share count by more than 4.5% which will help drive EPFS growth going forward.

第 19 頁，我們強調了我們繼續向股東返還資本的承諾。第三季度，我們加快了股票回購，回購了價值 2.09 億美元的股票。我們在靜默期內繼續回購股票，並實現了全年 3.25 億美元的目標，並且第四季度還具有進一步回購的能力。今年迄今為止，我們已減少股份數量超過 4.5%，這將有助於推動 EPFS 未來的成長。

Since initiating the share repurchase program in 2011, we have repurchased $5.5 billion worth of shares and returned over 85% of free cash flow to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. Our current share repurchase authorization has approximately $1.2 billion remaining which allows us to repurchase shares through December 31, 2026.

自 2011 年啟動股票回購計畫以來，我們已回購了價值 55 億美元的股票，並透過回購和股息向股東返還了 85% 以上的自由現金流。我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘約 12 億美元，這使我們能夠在 2026 年 12 月 31 日之前回購股票。

Now turning to slide 20 this slide highlights the key factors that will impact our financial outlook for 2025 and beyond. In recent years, the automotive industry has faced a variety of challenges including a global pandemic, a semiconductor, huge fluctuations in commodity prices, and FX rates and elevated wage inflation.

現在轉到第 20 張投影片，投影片重點介紹了影響我們 2025 年及以後財務前景的關鍵因素。近年來，汽車產業面臨各種挑戰，包括全球疫情、半導體、大宗商品價格的大幅波動、外匯匯率和薪資通膨上升。

To navigate these headwinds, we introduced Lear Forward, a strategic initiative focused on improving capacity utilization through footprint optimization and increasing flexibility across the two business segments. In addition, we streamlined our portfolio to prioritize investments in products that leverage our core capabilities and strengths in engineering and manufacturing.

為了應對這些不利因素，我們推出了 Lear Forward，這是一項策略性計劃，旨在透過優化佔地面積來提高產能利用率並提高兩個業務部門的靈活性。此外，我們精簡了產品組合，優先投資那些能夠發揮我們在工程和製造方面的核心能力和優勢的產品。

Currently, macro conditions including vehicle affordability, the regulatory environment and wage inflation continue to weigh on the automotive industry. The unprecedented transition to electric vehicles has caused near term uncertainty around vehicle production.

目前，汽車購買力、監管環境、薪資上漲等宏觀條件持續對汽車產業造成壓力。前所未有的電動車轉型已導致汽車生產的短期不確定性。

As customers assess their power train strategies, we have seen a delay in sourcing activity particularly in North America and Europe. Consistent with our historical track record, we are taking actions such as improving our operating performance, optimizing our footprint through restructuring actions and resolving commercial negotiations with our customers. We continue to make significant progress through our idea by leader initiatives including aggressive steps to accelerate the deployment of automation, these performance improvement actions coupled with growth opportunities through innovative products conquest wins and customer diversification have positioned both businesses for sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. Now I'll turn it back to Ray for some closing thoughts.

當客戶評估他們的動力傳動系統策略時，我們發現採購活動有所延遲，尤其是在北美和歐洲。與我們的歷史記錄一致，我們正在採取行動，例如改善我們的營運業績，透過重組行動優化我們的足跡以及解決與客戶的商業談判。我們繼續透過領導者創意計畫取得重大進展，包括積極採取措施加速自動化部署，這些績效改進行動加上透過創新產品征服勝利和客戶多樣化帶來的成長機會，使兩項業務都實現了持續的收入成長和利潤率擴大。現在我將話題轉回給 Ray，請他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Jason. Please turn to slide 22. We have been positioning itself for long term success in any industry environment through our continued focus on what we can control and the execution of our strategic initiatives. In seeing we are accelerating the deployment of our thermal comfort systems products, our ComfortFlex module solutions are entering the market and we are continuing to win new business for future applications.

謝謝，傑森。請翻到第 22 張投影片。我們始終專注於我們能夠控制的事情並執行我們的策略舉措，以在任何行業環境中取得長期成功。我們正在加速部署我們的熱舒適系統產品，我們的ComfortFlex模組解決方案正在進入市場，我們正在繼續為未來的應用贏得新業務。

In these systems, we are winning new business across all powertrains resulting in strong growth. We continue to diversify our customer base in both seating and e systems and the relationships we have built with Chinese domestic automakers is driving new business opportunities for both businesses and we are starting to see increased opportunities to grow with the Japanese OEMS.

在這些系統中，我們在所有動力系統方面贏得了新業務，從而實現了強勁成長。我們繼續在座椅和電子系統領域實現客戶群多元化，我們與中國國內汽車製造商建立的關係為兩家企業帶來了新的商機，我們也開始看到與日本 OEM 共同成長的機會。

The investments we are making in advanced manufacturing and capacity optimization is improving our cost structure and allows us to be the most competitive supplier in our key products. During the quarter, we accelerated the pace of our share repurchases to take advantage of the current share price. As a result, we repurchased our target of $325 million worth of shares, reducing the share count by over 4.5% since the beginning of the year, driving earnings per share growth, we remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases. And now we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們在先進製造和產能優化方面所做的投資正在改善我們的成本結構，並使我們成為主要產品中最具競爭力的供應商。在本季度，我們加快了股票回購的步伐，以利用當前股價。因此，我們回購了價值 3.25 億美元的股票，自今年初以來股票數量減少了 4.5% 以上，推動了每股收益的成長，我們仍然致力於透過股息和股票回饋股東多餘的現金。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions), Joe Spak,

女士們、先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員指令），Joe Spak，

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I guess just to start, with the implied fourth quarter guide looks like you've taken a pretty punitive view on fourth quarter production. And I'm wondering if that's something you're seeing specific to your customers or platforms, some conservatism and then what are your sort of early indications here for 2025?

謝謝。大家早安。我想首先，從隱含的第四季指南來看，你對第四季的生產採取了相當嚴厲的看法。我想知道您是否認為您的客戶或平台存在某種保守主義，您對 2025 年的早期預測是什麼？

Because you've previously talked about, you know, the backlog was being impacted by slower uptake. It feels like in the quarter since then, things have gotten worse. Now, you're saying, you know, some sourcing activity is being delayed. I know there was a chance that you said that existing programs could be extended or higher volume on existing programs could occur. But, you know, just how do we sort of put all these pieces together as we start thinking about next year?

因為您之前已經談過，您知道，積壓問題受到了成長放緩的影響。感覺從那時起的一個季度裡，情況變得更糟了。現在，您說一些採購活動被推遲了。我知道您說過現有程序可能會延長，或者現有程序的數量可能會增加。但是，你知道，當我們開始考慮明年的時候，我們怎麼能把所有這些部分整合在一起呢？

Yeah, lots of process there, Joe start with the fourth quarter and I think that in both our businesses, our interaction with our customers is, you know, given us a pretty clear line of sight on what VME are going to look like through the balance of the year. And, and it, the fourth quarter did deteriorate pretty significantly even from what we were seeing in sort of mid, mid third quarter as we updated our view on the year during a conference at that point.

是的，有很多流程，Joe 從第四季度開始，我認為在我們的兩個業務中，我們與客戶的互動讓我們清楚地了解 VME 在未來會是什麼樣子。而且，正如我們在當時的一次會議上更新對今年的看法時所說，第四季度的情況確實比第三季中期的情況惡化了相當多。

And so we are seeing the fourth quarter about 5.5% lower than IHS or almost 8% lower on a Lear sales weighted basis and 11% lower in Europe specifically, I think Europe is probably where the biggest disconnect lies between what IHS or S&P is projecting and what we're seeing from our customers, seeing and hearing. Europe, we have down year over year, about 19% in the fourth quarter, North America down 9% and China down 7.6%. And so that's what we factored in. I don't think it's, I would refer to it as conservative. I believe it's balanced. You know, there are some platforms doing better than others, but that's how we're seeing the market overall.

因此，我們看到第四季的銷售額比IHS 低5.5%，或者以李爾銷售額加權計算，下降近8%，歐洲的銷售額下降11%，我認為歐洲可能是IHS 或標準普爾預測之間差距最大的地區以及我們從客戶那裡看到的、聽到的。歐洲第四季較去年同期下降約 19%，北美下降 9%，中國下降 7.6%。這就是我們所考慮的因素。我不這麼認為，我會稱之為保守。我相信它是平衡的。你知道，有些平台比其他平台做得更好，但這就是我們對整個市場的看法。

In terms of 2025, I'm sure we'll get this question a number of times and I think it's, you know, we'll reserve most of our comments regarding what's going, you know, our revenue is going to look like next year and what our view is on industry volumes until we get to our fourth quarter earnings call, but I can spend a few minutes talking a little bit more about the source and environment which we refer to in the prepared remarks and sort of what we're seeing in that regard.

就 2025 年而言，我相信我們會多次被問到這個問題，我認為，你知道，我們將保留大部分關於我們的收入情況的評論，你知道，接下來今年的情況以及我們對行業銷量的看法，直到我們召開第四季度財報電話會議，但我可以花幾分鐘時間再談談我們在準備好的評論中提到的來源和環境，以及我們重新審視這方面。

Not signaling out one customer, but so to speak in generalities, the 2024 new business sourcing that we expected at the start of the year has progressed much more slowly. So programs that we expected to complete the sourcing process have been considerably lower than what we would see in a typical year. And so what we're seeing, I think is the impact of our customers rethinking their powertrain strategies trying to design costs out of their battery systems, in particular on EVs and we're seeing a lot of what we would call RFIs as opposed to RFQS. And so that has led to a little bit slower, longer flow process than we would ordinarily expect to see.

並不是特別指出某個客戶，而是籠統地說，我們在年初預期的 2024 年新業務採購進度要慢得多。因此，我們預計完成採購流程的項目數量將比典型年份低得多。因此，我認為我們看到的是我們的客戶重新考慮他們的動力系統策略，試圖從電池系統的設計中節省成本，特別是在電動車上，我們看到了很多我們稱之為RFI 的東西，而不是詢價。因此，這導致流程比我們通常預期的要慢一些，時間也長一些。

Give a little insight, the RFIs request for information and what we're seeing is there's a lot of different scenarios planning within the multinationals on. Like Jason explained for cost or efficiency or what really bandwidth looks like. So as opposed to a request for quote which leads to an award. We're seeing a lot more in the pipeline, a request for information that then they're modeling inside for different evaluations and building their models for what the vehicle costs and what the architecture would look like. We have seen acceleration in RFIS or less several quarters.

請提供一些見解，RFI 請求提供信息，而我們看到的是跨國公司內部有很多不同的情景規劃。就像 Jason 解釋成本或效率或實際頻寬是什麼樣子的。因此，這與導致授予獎項的報價請求相反。我們看到管道中有更多的資訊請求，然後他們在內部建模以進行不同的評估，並根據車輛成本和架構建立模型。我們已經看到 RFIS 在幾個季度內加速發展。

And I think, you know, that that's prudent and I think it will lead to a more competitive offering with our key customers as new programs launch. And so I don't, I don't think it's a bad thing. I think it's a good thing, but it will have an impact most likely in our year backlog that we would report in the fourth quarter earnings call. But as we're thinking about our performance in both business segments, our win rate on business that's been sourced is consistent with what we've seen in prior years.

而且我認為這是明智之舉，而且我認為隨著新項目的推出，這將使我們為主要客戶提供更具競爭力的產品。所以我不認為這是一件壞事。我認為這是一件好事，但它很可能會對我們在第四季度財報電話會議上報告的年度積壓訂單產生影響。但當我們考慮兩個業務部門的表現時，我們發現，我們已獲得的業務的成功率與前幾年的一致。

And I think that's a key point. And our competitive position in both business segments has improved dramatically over the last 12 months. I'll start with seating because the investments we've made in product and process innovation, more specifically what we've done around thermal comfort and modularity and the advanced manufacturing processes that really facilitate what we're trying to accomplish in automation and reduce our capital costs going forward. We've extended the competitive advantage that we already had in seating coming into the year.

我認為這是關鍵點。在過去的 12 個月中，我們在兩個業務領域的競爭地位都得到了顯著提升。我先從座椅開始，因為我們在產品和工藝創新方面的投資，更具體地說，我們在熱舒適性和模組化以及先進製造工藝方面所做的投資，這些都真正促進了我們在自動化和減少我們未來的資本成本。我們進一步擴大了今年座椅領域已有的競爭優勢。

We've extended that advantage and I think there's a couple of important data points that really reinforce this one, the overall seeding business quota. And so far this year, again, we've won it consistent with our historical wind rate. Our quote pipeline at the end of the year is higher than it was at the start of the year. So the population of new business opportunities available to us is growing.

我們已經擴大了這一優勢，我認為有幾個重要的數據點可以真正強化這一點，即整體種子業務配額。今年到目前為止，我們再次取得了與歷史風速一致的勝利。我們年底的報價管道比年初高。因此，我們面臨的新商機數量正在不斷增加。

AN important subset of that, in particular, our conquest opportunities are at a record level. We're not going to win everything in that population, but we have over $3 billion of conquest awards that we're being asked to quote by our customers. And I think that's a recognition by our customers that we have created a point of differentiation on quality on cost and of course on innovation. So I think those two factors taken together just the overall win rate and then our conquest opportunity and the size of the pipeline really gives us confidence and a clear path to meeting or exceeding the market share target of 29% in just seeing over the next several years.

其中一個重要方面是，我們的征服機會達到了創紀錄的水平。我們不可能贏得該人群中的所有訂單，但我們的客戶要求我們提供超過 30 億美元的訂單報價。我認為這是客戶對我們在品質、成本和創新方面創造差異點的認可。因此，我認為，將這兩個因素結合起來，整體勝率、我們的征服機會和管道規模確實給了我們信心，並讓我們有明確的途徑在未來幾年內達到或超過 29% 的市場份額目標。年。

In these systems, we're seeing an increased interest from both important existing customers and new customers. And we have two of the largest conquest opportunities in our history potentially to be sourced over the next 3 to 6 months. Again, we may not win both of those. But the fact that we're being asked to quote programs that we didn't previously have access to is a really important development, our quality performance, our consistent execution in these systems, our leading manufacturing cost footprint, the position we have already in Honduras, the strong position we have in North Africa and then leveraging the relationships we have with the Chinese Domestic, particularly on the seating side, that's really what's leading to that kind of increased population of conquest growth opportunities in the system.

在這些系統中，我們看到重要的現有客戶和新客戶的興趣日益濃厚。我們歷史上有兩個最大的征服機會，可能在未來 3 到 6 個月內實現。再說了，我們可能無法兩全其美。但事實上，我們被要求對以前沒有機會接觸到的程序進行報價，這是一個非常重要的發展，我們的品質表現，我們在這些系統中的一致執行，我們領先的製造成本足跡，我們已經在宏都拉斯，我們在北非擁有的強勢地位，以及我們與中國國內的關係，特別是在座位方面，才是真正導致系統中征服人口成長機會增加的原因。

So I think both businesses are really poised to generate significant growth over the midterm and long term, the near term, it's going to be really impacted by just the pace of some of the programs in the pipeline that are launching. And I think similar to what we saw this year with our backlog, it came down meaningfully from what we released in February to kind of where we ended up.

因此，我認為這兩項業務都有望在中期和長期實現顯著成長，但從短期來看，這將受到正在籌備中的一些專案啟動速度的真正影響。我認為，與我們今年看到的積壓情況類似，與 2 月發布的數量相比，積壓數量有顯著下降。

You know, at this point, I think our initial backlog for 2024 was $1.2 billion. We see that around $885 million now. And as we look out next year, we see a similar phenomenon in terms of just lower volumes and delayed launches on many of the programs that comprise that backlog and we'll provide a lot more detail, of course, on the fourth quarter earnings call.

你知道，目前，我認為我們 2024 年的初始積壓訂單為 12 億美元。我們現在看到這個數字約為 8.85 億美元。展望明年，我們將看到類似的現象，即許多積壓項目的數量減少和發布延遲，當然，我們將在第四季度財報電話會議上提供更多詳細資訊。

Yeah, that's an incredible amount of detail already. So thanks for that. If I could assess one other quick one here, if I look at slide 8 on your China progress, which has obviously been pretty good, it does seem like you're assuming like maybe like a 2% annual decline in China for the multinationals. So, and I think we've seen greater declines to date. So are you expecting that to moderate over the period or is there supplanted by maybe some share gains there.

是的，這已經是令人難以置信的大量細節了。非常感謝。如果我可以在這裡再快速評估一下，如果我看第 8 張投影片上關於你們在中國的進展，這顯然已經相當不錯了，你似乎確實假設跨國公司在中國的年增長率可能為 2%。因此，我認為迄今為止我們已經看到了更大的下降。那麼，您是否預計這一趨勢會在一段時間內有所緩和，或者可能會被一些股價上漲所取代？

Yeah, we're expecting the share shift to continue, but at a more moderate pace than what we've seen over the last certainly the last 12 months, 24 months. We're building a plan in this timeframe that has about 10 points of additional share shift from our traditional customers to the Chinese domestic. So we're trying to be, we're obviously cognizant of what's happening in that market. We're repositioning our efforts really around growing with Chinese domestics. But there are platforms with traditional customers that are continuing to perform quite well. And while we've seen some pullback recently with the luxury grants, German OEMs, generally speaking, those platforms are still performing quite well, particularly on the higher end of that market.

是的，我們預計份額變化將會持續，但速度將比過去 12 個月或 24 個月的水平更為溫和。我們正在製定一個時間框架計劃，將大約 10 個百分點的份額從我們的傳統客戶轉移到中國國內客戶。因此，我們正在努力，我們顯然清楚該市場正在發生什麼。我們正在重新定位我們的努力方向，真正實現與中國國內客戶的共同成長。但有些擁有傳統客戶的平台仍然表現良好。雖然我們最近看到豪華車補貼有所回落，但總體而言，德國原始設備製造商的平台表現仍然相當良好，特別是在高端市場。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

Good morning, guys. A first question, Ray, it's interesting, you were talking about how the bidding processes, it seems like it's slipping or slow this year relative to expectations in past years.

大家早安。第一個問題，雷，這很有趣，你談到了競標過程，相對於過去幾年的預期，今年的競標過程似乎有所下滑或放緩。

I mean, there's a lot going on there. One thing we've also heard is that in the bidding process, in the RFI, or in the RFI process, not the RFQ side, is that there's a lot of discussion about a plan A bid sort of normal course, including China and Taiwan content and then a plan B bid or information with ex-China and ex--Taiwan content.

我的意思是那裡發生了很多事情。我們也聽說，在投標過程中，在 RFI 中，或者在 RFI 過程中，而不是在 RFQ 方面，有很多關於計劃 A 投標的討論，這是一種正常的進程，包括中國和台灣內容，然後是B 計劃出價或包含中國以外和台灣以外內容的資訊。

And obviously, there's many reasons why the automakers might be requesting that, considering that the proposed auto tech, auto tech ban here in the US and many other reasons. Are you hearing that, and is that really jamming up the process, on bidding as well?

顯然，汽車製造商提出這項要求的原因有很多，例如考慮到美國提議的汽車技術禁令以及許多其他原因。您聽說了嗎？

I think what we've seen, it may be around some of the electronic components in that you have a dual design or dual source solution in the event that you have backups. And so we have seen that. We're very familiar with that. And so we've been working on that for a long period of time. So I don't think that's anything new. I think with the RFIs that we're seeing, they're more around different architectures, different architectural designs, different battery layouts and designs within the battery for efficiency.

我認為，我們所看到的可能是圍繞著某些電子元件，如果有備份，您將擁有雙重設計或雙源解決方案。我們已經看到了這一點。我們對此非常熟悉。我們為此已經努力了很長一段時間。所以我不認為這有什麼新鮮事。我認為，就我們看到的 RFI 而言，它們更涉及不同的架構、不同的架構設計、不同的電池佈局以及電池內部的效率設計。

And those are taking a little bit longer time as they're assessing different types of use cases within the vehicle based on to design and the platform that they're, they're looking to source. And so I think on the Seating side it's been somewhat helpful because it gives us an opportunity. And we were ran it Frank’s here and we've talked about it, John, is that we're in now with the modular concept, with our capabilities around automation has been something that has been very unique to offer a solution that is somewhat not traditional and more innovative and it helps lower their overall cost.

這些需要更長的時間，因為他們正在根據設計和他們正在尋找的平台來評估車輛內不同類型的用例。因此我認為從座位方面來說這有一定幫助，因為它給了我們一個機會。我們由 Frank 負責，我們已經討論過這個問題，John，我們現在採用模組化概念，我們在自動化方面的能力非常獨特，可以提供解決方案在某種程度上來說不是傳統的，而是更具創新性的，它有助於降低總體成本。

And so on e-system side, it's more around the architecture and what they're looking at and how they're looking at future designs and how they're looking at the battery. And the Seating side has been extremely helpful because it's kind of opened the door to a non-traditional sourcing model. Right now we've had some very constructive positive meetings on how we can drive the modular solution to really drive out efficiency and really create a better cost better seat system.

因此在電子系統方面，更多的是圍繞架構、他們正在關注什麼、他們如何看待未來的設計以及他們如何看待電池。座位方面非常有幫助，因為它打開了非傳統採購模式的大門。目前，我們已經進行了一些非常有建設性的積極會議，討論如何推動模組化解決方案真正提高效率並真正創造出更具成本效益的座椅系統。

And that's why when we hint to the success we're having now with the Japanese OEs, they've really opened up. I was just in Japan several weeks ago talking to key customers there on our innovation, on the manufacturing side, they're looking for it. And then obviously it's been very helpful with the Chinese domestics.

這就是為什麼當我們暗示我們目前與日本原始設備製造商合作所取得的成功時，他們真的敞開了心扉。幾週前我剛在日本與那裡的重要客戶談論我們的創新，在製造方面，他們正在尋找它。顯然這對中國國內市場非常有幫助。

It's been the thing that's opened the door is our innovation. And so I think the way we've separate ourselves, particularly in Seating with innovation, with the modular design and automation, is allowing us to get into these RFIs differently, because they're not looking at a traditional statement or requirement. Let's just keep plug and hugging on a very similar fashion.

打開大門的正是我們的創新。因此，我認為我們將自己與客戶區分開來的方式，特別是在座椅創新、模組化設計和自動化方面，使我們能夠以不同的方式處理這些 RFI，因為他們不關注傳統的聲明或要求。讓我們繼續以非常相似的方式進行插入和擁抱。

They're open to these ideas and we've had some very, very constructive, positive meetings that I think are going to lead to some good awards. But this leads us to one word that I don't like is patience. Unfortunately, you have to have patience because these bids are going through their systems and trying to figure it out.

他們對這些想法持開放態度，而且我們進行了一些非常有建設性、積極的會議，我認為這些會議將會帶來一些不錯的獎項。但這讓我們想到一個我不喜歡的詞，那就是耐心。不幸的是，你必須要有耐心，因為這些出價正在通過他們的系統並試圖找出答案。

So we'll have patience. We know we have superior designs that are going to drive what they're looking for. And like Jason alluded to, we see a big buildup of RFQs coming really in the second, third quarter of next year that we're positioning ourselves, I think, in a very strong position to win.

所以我們要有耐心。我們知道我們擁有卓越的設計，能夠滿足他們的需求。正如傑森所提到的，我們預計明年第二季和第三季的 RFQ 將大幅增加，我認為我們將處於非常有利的獲勝位置。

That's very helpful. That just leads to kind of the second question around automation in your comments of moving more labor from Mexico down Honduras over the next few years. I mean, obviously, there's always the chase on LCC can only go so far.

這非常有幫助。這正好引出了您在評論中提到的關於自動化的第二個問題，即在未來幾年內將更多的勞動力從墨西哥轉移到洪都拉斯。我的意思是，顯然，對 LCC 的追逐只能到此為止。

So at some point, you really need to lean heavily on automation, and you're doing that. I'm just curious, if you think about both businesses, how far you can go on automation and how low you can get labor as a percent of total costs. At some point you're going to have to automate more and more over time, but how far can that ultimately go? What's the asymptotic limit?

所以在某種程度上，你確實需要嚴重依賴自動化，而你正在這樣做。我只是好奇，如果你考慮這兩項業務，你能在自動化方面走多遠，以及勞動力在總成本中的百分比能有多低。在某種程度上，隨著時間的推移，你將必須實現越來越多的自動化，但最終能達到什麼程度？漸近極限是多少？

Yeah, it is a combination of both. And I think it's both what we've look at as far as cut and sew and wiring. And as we're even moving, and I do agree with you, labor arbitrage is something that will run its course. And so we do it in parallel.

是的，兩者兼具。我認為這是我們在剪裁、縫紉和佈線方面所關注的。隨著我們的不斷前進，我確實同意你的觀點，勞動力套利將會自然而然地發生。因此我們同時進行此操作。

And I think, our, our vision is obviously lay out. I mean, everything that we look at in respect to what we're doing is how do we get to the optimum scenario of lights out? And it's -- what's great about what we've done with these acquisitions, and we talked about it previously, we're manufacturing our own capital. There's certain things that are commoditized that we don't need to go after like we discussed with camera -- cameras and cobots and robots, those are commoditized to a point where we can get those very efficiently.

我認為，我們的願景顯然已經實現。我的意思是，我們在做所有事情時考慮的是如何才能達到熄燈的最佳效果？而且 — — 我們透過這些收購所做的一切很棒，正如我們之前談論過的，我們正在製造自己的資本。有些東西已經商品化了，我們不需要去追求，就像我們討論過的相機一樣——相機、協作機器人和機器人，它們已經商品化到我們可以非常有效率地獲得它們的程度。

It's the software algorithms, when I talk about LearVUE, we're writing our own software. The WIP automation software company that we purchased gave us in house capabilities with AI algorithms, software's that allow us to differentiate on the floor, not just from an efficiency standpoint, but what we're seeing is the benefits with quality, throughput, ergonomics, everything. It hits them all, and we're keeping that all in house. Why we acquired these companies is we're not using that and selling it to any of our competitors. It’s very, very distinctly designed for our internal use.

這是一個軟體演算法，當我談到 LearVUE 時，我們正在編寫自己的軟體。我們收購的WIP 自動化軟體公司為我們提供了AI 演算法的內部功能，這些軟體讓我們能夠在車間實現差異化，不僅僅是從效率的角度，而且我們看到的是品質、產量、人體工學方面的好處，一切。它襲擊了他們所有人，並且我們將其全部保留在屋內。我們收購這些公司的原因是我們不會利用它們並將其出售給任何競爭對手。它是專為我們的內部使用而設計的。

And I think what's great, too, is we're seeing a serious reduction in capital cost because as we manufacture our own capital for our own use, we're seeing a 30%, 40% reduction in capital and the cost of capital to is to deploy.

我認為同樣令人高興的是，我們看到資本成本大幅下降，因為當我們為自己生產資本時，我們看到資本和資本成本減少了 30% 到 40%。

And I think we're going to continue to see that. So to your original question, yeah, the goal is to continue to automate the areas that we are very labor intensive and that we can become much more efficient, and we're doing that. But the benefits that we're seeing with capital costs going down, the efficiencies, the way we differentiate ourselves.

我認為我們將繼續看到這種情況。對於你最初的問題，是的，我們的目標是繼續實現勞動力密集領域的自動化，從而提高效率，我們正在這樣做。但我們看到的好處是資本成本下降，效率提高，我們的方式與眾不同。

The reason the customers, I think, are very attractive to how we're laying out these RFIs is because it's unique to Lear. We're not buying off-the-shelf stuff. We're buying things that we manufacture, that we produce that are unique to our own designs and our own manufacturing needs.

我認為，顧客之所以對我們佈置這些 RFI 的方式非常感興趣，是因為它是 Lear 獨有的。我們不購買現成的東西。我們購買我們製造的、根據我們自己的設計和製造需求生產的獨特產品。

And so like I said, patience is a word I have a tough time because it's all about go fast, go fast, go fast, but as you're walking the customers through it and they have an appreciation for it, and they see it, they really understand how we're differentiating ourselves and what the benefits they can get across the board with quality, throughput, even job satisfaction from our employee perspective, has been incredible. So but our target is to in parallel work both of them.

所以就像我說的，耐心這個詞對我來說很難，因為它是關於快速，快速，快速，但當你帶領顧客完成它時，他們會對此表示讚賞，他們會看到它他們真正了解我們如何與眾不同，以及他們從品質、產量，甚至從員工角度的工作滿意度等方面所能獲得的益處是令人難以置信的。但我們的目標是同時進行這兩項工作。

Okay. One, just a quick one for Jason, it just looks like there's a little bit more pressure on net income on the implied in the fourth quarter than there is in core operating income actually like a fair amount more pressure. Is there something going on in the balance between core operating earnings and equity income in the fourth quarter where equity income is getting hit much harder by your assumptions?

好的。首先，傑森簡單問一下，看起來第四季的隱含淨收入壓力比核心營業收入大一些，實際上壓力要大得多。第四季核心營業利潤和股權收益之間的平衡是否有問題？

Yeah. Let me just take a quick look here. I mean our equity earnings are expected to be down about $2 million in the fourth quarter. I think we probably have a little bit of breathing room in that number. There isn't anything meaningful that's happened with the non-consolidated joint ventures, maybe a bit of conservatism in the assumption around NAC earnings in the fourth quarter.

是的。讓我快速看一下這裡。我的意思是，我們第四季的股權收益預計將下降約 200 萬美元。我認為我們可能對該數字還有一點喘息空間。非合併合資企業並沒有發生任何有意義的事情，也許對第四季度 NAC 盈利的假設有些保守。

Okay. We can follow up later. Thank you so much.

好的。我們可以稍後跟進。太感謝了。

Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks very much for taking the questions. First, I'm hoping you can help us to better understand what to expect for growth over market in both Seating and E-Systems over the next two to three years, the company spoke today around some sourcing headwinds, but you've also seen better momentum within China. So maybe you can help us better contextualize what that all means for growth over market in the intermediate term.

是的，早安。非常感謝您回答這些問題。首先，我希望你能幫助我們更了解未來兩到三年座椅和電子系統市場的成長預期，該公司今天談到了一些採購方面的阻力，但你也看到了中國國內發展勢頭較好。所以也許您可以幫助我們更好地理解這對於中期市場成長意味著什麼。

Yeah. I think that we've been positively surprised by the growth over market performance this year. I mean our growth on existing platforms has held up better than we had expected when we started the year. But as we look out over the next 12 months, it's really challenging, given all the uncertainty that we described in the prepared remarks in the near term with regards to customer demand, in particular platforms and in segments.

是的。我認為，今年的市場表現成長令我們感到驚訝。我的意思是，我們在現有平台上的成長比我們今年年初預期的要好。但展望未來 12 個月，這確實充滿挑戰，因為考慮到我們在準備好的評論中所描述的近期與客戶需求（特別是平台和細分市場）相關的所有不確定性。

Longer term, we still have a high degree of confidence in our 4 points of growth over market and Seating and 6 points in e-system's driven by what we described in terms of our conquest opportunities available to us that we're participating in both business segments. So I think that's at this stage, we're not ready to guide to a growth over market number 4 for next year. But longer term, the plans that we have and the win rates that we've seen on business source this year in the pipeline we see in front of us would support continuing to achieve those long-term growth objectives.

從長遠來看，我們仍然對市場和座椅業務成長 4 個百分點、電子系統業務成長 6 個百分點充滿信心，這得益於我們在這兩個業務領域參與的征服機會。所以我認為，現階段我們還沒準備好預測明年第四季的市場成長率。但從長遠來看，我們制定的計劃以及今年在業務來源方面取得的成功率將支持我們繼續實現這些長期成長目標。

Got it. And my next question was a follow up, Jason to just some of the comments you made in regard to Joe's question on backlog heading into next year. You said you're expecting a similar phenomenon 2025 versus '24. I'm hoping to better understand what you mean by that.

知道了。我的下一個問題是跟進，傑森，只是針對你對喬關於明年積壓問題的一些評論。您說您預計 2025 年會出現與 24 年類似的現象。我希望能更好地理解你的意思。

I mean, did you and you think you'll see backlog revised down by something like the 25% to 30% you're seeing this year. And I think it was $800 million at the start of the year or did you mean you think net backlog heading into '25 is still going to be in the $800 million or so range like what you're now expecting for '24? Thanks.

我的意思是，您是否認為積壓訂單量會像今年一樣下調 25％ 到 30％ 左右？我認為今年年初的數字是 8 億美元，還是您的意思是您認為 25 年的淨積壓訂單仍將在 8 億美元左右的範圍內，就像您現在對 24 年的預期一樣？謝謝。

Yeah. So Mark, again, we're not ready to provide a pinpoint number, but we are seeing a meaningful reduction in the $800 million backlog that we had initially anticipated for next year, and that's really driven by the assumptions around some of the key platforms in our backlog, in particular, with -- we have the RAM charger and RAM REV programs and our assumption around the timing of those launches and the volumes in that first year was much higher and much sooner when we establish the backlog. So that will probably be the single biggest factor that's changed.

是的。所以馬克，我們還沒有準備好提供一個確切的數字，但我們看到，我們最初預計明年的 8 億美元積壓訂單有了顯著減少，而這實際上是由一些關鍵平台的假設所驅動的在我們在的積壓訂單中，特別是——我們有RAM 充電器和RAM REV 程序，並且我們對這些產品的發佈時間和第一年的銷售的假設在我們建立積壓訂單時要高得多而且要早得多。所以這可能是改變的最大因素。

And then in terms of the similar phenomenon that I was referring to, programs like with Volvo and EX90 and Polestar 3 and some of the GM EV platforms, we're now expecting lower volumes on those platforms than our initial backlog assumed. So we do expect to see that $800 million backlog move down in a not insignificant way. I don't -- again, I don't want to put a pinpoint number on it, so we're still working through it, but it will come down.

然後就我所指的類似現象而言，像沃爾沃 EX90 和 Polestar 3 以及一些通用汽車電動汽車平台的項目，我們現在預計這些平台的銷量將低於我們最初的積壓假設。因此，我們確實預期 8 億美元的積壓訂單將大幅減少。我不想—再說一遍，我不想給出一個確切的數字，所以我們仍在努力，但它會下降的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的科林·蘭根。

Thanks for taking my questions. Just earlier, it was asked, I just didn't get a clear answer or maybe I missed it. I apologize if I did. So, if we talk about the Q4 margin, I think it's something like 4.2% at the midpoint of your current guide. You're, 4.8% for the year. How should we think about getting margins back on track into 2025? What's sort of unique about Q4 or should we consider the risk into '25?

感謝您回答我的問題。剛才有人問過，但我沒有得到明確的答案，或者也許我錯過了。如果我這樣做了，我深感抱歉。因此，如果我們談論第四季度的利潤率，我認為它應該是當前指導價中間值的 4.2% 左右。今年的成長率為 4.8%。我們該如何考慮在 2025 年讓利潤率重回正軌？Q4 有何獨特之處？

Yeah. It might be helpful just to explain sort of the sequential bridge from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. There's two things going on. One, we've assumed lower revenue is about $125 million sequential reduction in sales from Q3 to Q4. And so you have, call it, $20 million, $25 million of variable margin associated with that. And so that's the biggest driver of the margin sequentially.

是的。解釋一下從第三季到第四季的連續橋樑可能會有所幫助。有兩件事正在發生。首先，我們假設營收下降意味著第三季到第四季的銷售額連續減少約 1.25 億美元。因此，您有與之相關的 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元的可變保證金。因此，這是利潤率連續成長的最大驅動因素。

And then historically, the fourth quarter was kind of our strongest quarter from a commercial negotiation, commercial settlement standpoint. And this year is a bit unique in that we've had settlements that have happened throughout the year. And what happened in the third quarter is we completed a couple of key negotiations in Seating that pulled ahead about $15 million that we had anticipated in the fourth quarter -- into the third quarter.

從歷史上看，從商業談判、商業結算的角度來看，第四季是我們表現最強勁的一個季度。今年比較特殊，因為我們全年都在進行和解。第三季度，我們完成了有關 Seating 的幾項關鍵談判，使我們在第三季度的預期收入比第四季度提前了約 1500 萬美元。

And so there's some out-of-period benefit in the third quarter about $15 million of items that we completed in the third quarter that really related to the first half of the year that sells in the third quarter, and we had anticipated that happening in the fourth quarter. So you may recall, we had guided Seatings to 6% margins in the third quarter, and that would have been 6.4% in the fourth quarter in our prior guidance. It's now reversed. So we had -- we improved to 6.4% on the back of that negotiation in the third quarter, and now we're back down to 6% in the fourth quarter.

因此，第三季有一些期外收益，大約 1500 萬美元，這些收益來自我們在第三季完成的項目，這些項目實際上與第三季銷售的上半年有關，我們曾預期這種情況會發生第四季。您可能還記得，我們​​曾預期 Seatings 第三季的利潤率為 6%，而根據先前的預期，第四季的利潤率為 6.4%。現在情況已經逆轉。因此，我們在第三季度透過談判將成長率提高到了 6.4%，而在第四季又回落到了 6%。

E-Systems we're expecting consistent margins in Q3 and Q4 of 5%. Your number overall is right, at 4.2% is what the operating margin would be in the fourth quarter. As we think about 2025, because of the sort of choppiness of these commercial negotiations and I think the inventory correction that's happened with some of our largest customers in the fourth quarter. [Stellantis] has talked very publicly about that, other customers have talked about it. I think GM talked about in the earnings call, maybe lower full-size truck and SUV volumes in the fourth quarter and the third quarter, things like that.

E-Systems 我們預計第三季和第四季的利潤率將穩定在 5% 左右。您的數字總體上是正確的，第四季度的營業利潤率為 4.2%。當我們考慮 2025 年時，由於這些商業談判的不穩定，以及我認為第四季度我們一些最大客戶出現的庫存調整。 [Stellantis] 已經公開談論過這個問題，其他客戶也談論過這個問題。我認為通用汽車在財報電話會議上談到了第四季度和第三季度全尺寸卡車和 SUV 銷量可能下降之類的事情。

What would lead you to -- I think, use the full year results as the launching point for looking at 2025 instead of the fourth quarter for the second half of the year. So as we go -- as we move into next year, I would say the run rate of Seating is 6.5% and the run rate of E-Systems is 5% or just above 5%. It's the right way to think about where you start heading into '25.

什麼會讓你——我認為，以全年業績作為展望 2025 年的起點，而不是以下半年的第四季作為起點。因此，隨著我們進入明年，我會說 Seating 的運行率為 6.5%，E-Systems 的運行率為 5% 或略高於 5%。這是思考 25 年你將從何處著手的正確方法。

That's very helpful. As we think about '25 to the big factors into this year have been labor cost inflation. And then also, I think it looks like have about 1% negative customer mix. It does seem like you're still under indexed in China. Should we be -- how should we be thinking about those two big factors as we go into next year's labor inflation, easing a bit. So it's not as much of an issue.

這非常有幫助。當我們思考 25 到今年的最大因素是勞動成本通膨。而且我認為看起來有大約 1% 的負面客戶組合。看起來你在中國仍然未被納入指數。當我們進入明年的勞動通膨階段時，我們該如何看待這兩個大因素？所以這不是什麼大問題。

Yeah. We are seeing an easing of wage inflation, a modest reduction from what we experienced this year. We don't see it going back down to sort of that 2021, '22, level, but we do expect it to be less of a headwind next year than what we experienced this year. So that's -- we get a bit of a head start on our net performance targets in both businesses next year as a result of that.

是的。我們看到薪資通膨正在緩解，與今年相比略有下降。我們預計它不會回落至 2021 年或 2022 年的水平，但我們確實預計明年的阻力會比今年小。因此，我們明年將在兩項業務的淨業績目標實現上略有領先。

In terms of trying to call the volume on our car lines for next year at this point, I think it's premature. There's just a lot of moving parts. Think about the election and everything else in front of us. So we'll save that for the fourth quarter earnings call, Colin.

就目前的情況來看，試圖預測我們明年的汽車產量還為時過早。有很多活動部件。想想選舉和我們面前的一切。因此，我們將把它留到第四季財報電話會議上，科林。

Okay. Alright. Thanks for taking my questions.

好的。好吧。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的詹姆斯·皮卡里洛（James Picariello）。

Hi, everybody. Regarding Lear's China revenue mix, so back to slide 8, thanks for this level of detail, by the way, again. If we look back to last year, you had roughly $4.9 billion in sales in China with about 60% of that consolidated, and the disfigured JVs, is there a similar consolidated versus JV breakout for your 2027 target? And then can you just provide any color on the margin profile differences of your current domestic OEM relationships compared to the legacy business? Thanks.

大家好。關於李爾公司在中國的收入結構，請回到第 8 頁，再次感謝您提供如此詳細的資訊。如果我們回顧去年，你們在中國的銷售額約為49 億美元，其中約60% 是合併銷售額，而合資企業受損，你們2027 年的目標中，合併銷售額和合資企業的銷售額是否有類似的突破？那麼，您能否詳細說明一下目前國內 OEM 關係與傳統業務相比的利潤率差異？謝謝。

Yeah. I'll take the first part and then Ray can take the second part of that in terms of the relationships. So we provided a number that includes consolidated and non-consolidated for 2027, and that's because it's a little bit of a moving target. I mean we're in discussions in certain JV relationships that we have right now where that could change, and we may end up with some non-consolidated business that today that becomes consolidated in the future. And not to make a commitment on that.

是的。我將負責第一部分，然後 Ray 可以根據關係負責第二部分。因此，我們提供了 2027 年包括合併和非合併在內的數字，這是因為它是一個移動的目標。我的意思是，我們正在討論現在的某些合資關係，這種情況可能會發生變化，我們最終可能會得到一些今天的非合併業務，但將來會合併。並且不對此作出承諾。

But that's the reason we chose to present it this way. We don't know is the short answer, what that split looks like in 2027 because of what we're trying to achieve in terms of taking more control of certain joint ventures in the region, in terms of the customer relationships.

但這就是我們選擇以這種方式呈現的原因。簡而言之，我們不知道 2027 年的拆分情況會是怎樣，因為我們試圖在客戶關係方面對該地區的某些合資企業進行更多的控制。

Yeah. It's -- first of all, the team that we have on the ground in China is outstanding. They have incredible relationships with the key domestic Chinese players. And I think -- obviously, I think it's evident by the growth that we've seen in the inroads we've been able to obtain. I think with BYD, for example, having 30% market share of their seat business from which really was an in-house captive player as far as Seating and our ability to expand that quickly.

是的。首先，我們在中國擁有一支出色的團隊。他們與中國國內的主要參與者保持著良好的關係。而且我認為——顯然，我認為從我們所取得的進展來看，這一點是顯而易見的。以比亞迪為例，它在座椅業務中佔有 30% 的市場份額，就座椅而言，它實際上是比亞迪內部的專屬參與者，我們具有快速擴張的能力。

The Xiaomi, the new technology that we're bringing in that vehicle over a relatively quick period of time has been incredible. I mean, tonight, Rob going to dinner with one of our key partners and customers within China.

小米，我們在相對較短的時間內在該車上引入的新技術令人難以置信。我的意思是，今晚 Rob 要和我們在中國的一位重要合作夥伴和客戶共進晚餐。

So we continue to, I think, build outstanding relationships. But relationships are one thing, and it's part of it. But I think the technology and innovation we've been able to bring forward is really differentiate ourselves. I think it's one of the reasons why we've been so successful.

因此我認為，我們將繼續建立良好的關係。但關係是一回事，它是其中的一部分。但我認為，我們所能夠帶來的技術和創新確實使我們與眾不同。我認為這是我們如此成功的原因之一。

And one of the reasons I think we have so much confidence in our ability to not just expand and grow with the domestics in China. But the relationships as they grow and build outside of China with new facilities that we've been continuing those relationships. And so I think there's going to be continued -- without question, continued growth not just within China, with the domestic Chinese but outside of China.

我認為，原因之一是我們對自己的能力充滿信心，不僅能與中國國內企業共同擴張成長。但隨著他們在中國境外發展並建立新設施，我們一直在維持這些關係。因此我認為，毫無疑問，不僅在中國國內，而且在中國境外，成長仍將持續。

And so the relationship is one part of it, but I think it's having the technology and innovation to back it up is the key ingredient, and we've been able to do that. I couldn't be more happy with the team and their success in what we're achieving with the domestic Chinese. It's really helping us.

因此，關係是其中的一部分，但我認為，擁有技術和創新作為後盾才是關鍵因素，而我們已經做到了這一點。我對我們團隊以及他們在中國國內所取得的成功感到非常高興。它確實在幫助我們。

And I think when we think about growth, just to take a moment, I know the world is shifting. There's a lot of industry challenges. Everyone is looking at market share declines. But like Jason talked about, we're very confident in continuing with the multinationals with Conquest wins.

我認為，當我們思考成長時，只要花一點時間，我就知道世界正在改變。產業面臨很多挑戰。每個人都在關注市場佔有率的下降。但就像傑森所說的那樣，我們非常有信心繼續與跨國公司合作並取得勝利。

We have some big, big opportunities in front of us in both Seating and E-Systems that we've been giving a lot of feedback that it's a business that is very open and able for us to win. So we can continue to grow with the multinationals. I'm convinced of it. I think the domestic Chinese, we position ourselves very well. So I think we're going to grow without question with the domestic Chinese.

我們在座椅和電子系統領域都面臨著巨大的機遇，我們一直在給予大量回饋，認為這是一項非常開放且能夠讓我們獲勝的業務。因此我們可以繼續與跨國公司共同成長。我確信如此。我認為在中國國內，我們自己的定位非常好。因此我認為我們將會和中國國內市場一起毫無疑問地共同成長。

And like I mentioned, the Japanese, which has been a close door for so long for us. I mean, we won business in certain regions, certain areas, certain components, that door is open. And so as market shifts are changing, doors are opening in different ways. So we have, I think, a strong continuation of conquest wins on both E-Systems and Seating. And I love our position with the domestic Chinese and we'll continue to grow with them. And this new opportunity with the Japanese is real. And so I like our growth opportunities longer term. There's no question about it.

正如我所提到的那樣，日本對於我們來說已經很久沒有進過大門了。我的意思是，我們在某些​​地區、某些領域、某些零件贏得了業務，那扇門是敞開的。隨著市場的變化，大門也以不同的方式打開。因此，我認為，我們在 E-Systems 和 Seating 領域將繼續保持強勁勝利。我熱愛我們在中國國內的地位，我們將繼續與他們共同成長。與日本合作的這個新機會是真實存在的。因此，我喜歡我們長期的成長機會。毫無疑問。

Appreciate that color. Really helpful. So just on buybacks, you had targeted $325 million for the year. You've essentially achieved that a full quarter early here. Just how should we be thinking about the rest of the year? Thanks.

欣賞那種顏色。真的很有幫助。因此，僅在回購方面，您今年的目標就是 3.25 億美元。您基本上已經提前整整一個季​​度實現了這一目標。我們究竟該如何看待今年剩餘的時間呢？謝謝。

Yeah, James. We have the capacity based on our free cash flow outlook for the year to do more in the fourth quarter. I think, $50 million to $100 million is a reasonable target as we look at our plans for the quarter. So I would expect something in that range.

是的，詹姆斯。根據我們今年的自由現金流前景，我們有能力在第四季取得更多成果。我認為，從我們本季的計畫來看，5,000 萬到 1 億美元是一個合理的目標。因此我期望在這個範圍內。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Hey guys. Good morning. It's Williams talking on for Adam Jonas. I think tariffs are a very topical conversation right now, especially with the election. I think it would be useful if you guys could talk about how you're going about managing any potential tariffs, especially I think with Mexico because I know you have a lot of footprint there. And if you guys don't want to give commentary, that's fine, but I think it's very helpful. Thanks.

嘿，大家好。早安.這是威廉斯代替亞當喬納斯發表的演講。我認為關稅現在是一個非常熱門的話題，特別是在選舉期間。我認為，如果你們能談談如何管理任何潛在的關稅將會很有幫助，特別是與墨西哥，因為我知道你們在那裡有很多業務。如果你們不想發表評論，那也沒關係，但我認為這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah, I think with regards to Mexico, the disruption of the auto industry overall would just be significant. I think there's a very low likelihood of that happening. I think we have some time before US MCA is going to be renegotiated. But at the same time, we do have the benefit of shifting footprint from Mexico to Honduras, so we're not just dependent on that region for low-cost labor. But I would say that, that our view at this point is that that change in the tariff regimen in their scheme in Mexico is unlikely.

是的，我認為就墨西哥而言，整個汽車產業受到的衝擊將是巨大的。我認為發生這種情況的可能性非常小。我認為在美國 MCA 重新談判之前我們還有一些時間。但同時，我們確實受益於將業務範圍從墨西哥轉移到洪都拉斯，因此我們不僅僅依賴該地區的低成本勞動力。但我想說，我們目前的觀點是，墨西哥計畫中的關稅制度不太可能改變。

Got it. That's all very helpful. I think on the EV side, I think OEMs you see GM with their targets at their investor day, OEM is hyper focusing on getting to that gross margin positive on EVs. Have you guys seen anything new in terms of price downs, discontenting, anything that impacts you guys, as OEM try to get to that grows margin positive?

知道了。這一切都非常有幫助。我認為在電動車方面，我認為原始設備製造商在投資者日看到通用汽車設定的目標，即原始設備製造商高度專注於實現電動車的毛利率為正。當 OEM 試圖增加利潤時，你們有沒有看到價格下降、不滿等任何對你們有影響的新情況？

Well, I think like I mentioned earlier, what -- it has opened the door for opportunities which we pride ourselves on and cost technology optimization to continue to drive, be the most efficient, all the things that I think we're very good at operational excellence.

嗯，我想就像我之前提到的那樣，它為我們引以為豪的機會打開了大門，並且讓我們能夠繼續推動技術優化，提高效率，我認為我們非常擅長所有事情卓越運營。

But it's also opened this opportunity that we talked about earlier on modularity, seat designs, how we look at proliferation, how we can actually drive cost out. So when we're getting in these RFIs, it's kind of changing the way you can look at redesigning our key components. And so I think it's very helpful given the investments we've made around efficiencies within our manufacturing plants. The investments we've made around product and the vertical integration and nature of our products and how we can combine components, redesign components.

但它也為我們之前談到的模組化、座椅設計、如何看待擴散、如何真正降低成本等問題帶來了機會。因此，當我們收到這些 RFI 時，它會改變您重新設計關鍵組件的方式。因此，我認為，考慮到我們在製造工廠效率方面所做的投資，這非常有幫助。我們在產品、產品的垂直整合和性質方面所做的投資以及如何組合組件、重新設計組件。

So it has, I think, accelerated like I would say timing is everything, and we couldn't be in a better time because they are looking at moving away from what is considered traditional statement requirement, how they've been doing things, so really looking at things differently. That's how we won the ford module.

所以我認為它已經加速了，就像我說的時機就是一切一樣，我們處在一個再好不過的時代，因為他們正在考慮擺脫傳統的聲明要求，他們一直在做事，所以真正以不同的眼光看待事物。這就是我們贏得福特模組的方式。

We've talked about the 62 different programs that we're in development on. I think a lot of that is because of the environment we're in and the need for the customer to think differently. And so it's enlightening. Like I said, it takes some time. You have to have some patience.

我們討論了正在開發的 62 個不同的項目。我認為這在很大程度上是因為我們所處的環境以及客戶需要以不同的方式思考。因此，這很有啟發。正如我說過的，這需要一些時間。你必須要有耐心。

But you keep working it, and we are looking at how we can help them. But we haven't seen any significant changes in respect of major launches of new productivity agreements and those types of things. That's been pretty much status quo.

但你要繼續努力，我們正在研究如何幫助他們。但我們還沒有看到在推出新的生產力協議等方面有任何重大變化。這幾乎就是現狀。

Got it. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

知道了。謝謝大家。非常感謝。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的丹‧利維 (Dan Levy)。

Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in here at the end. This is Trevor Young on for Dan today. Just wanted to first start with a follow up on a comment you made earlier around your expectation for 10 more points of share shift in China to the domestic OEMs, if you could give a sense of if that was through the -- if that's for the time frame to the 2027 period, you gave your estimate through.

你好。謝謝你最後把我擠到這裡。今天由特雷弗楊 (Trevor Young) 取代丹。首先，我想跟進一下你之前對中國國內 OEM 份額轉移 10 個百分點的預期，如果你能說明一下，如果這是通過——如果這是針對時間範圍到2027 年期間，你給出了你的估計。

And then if that -- if there were to be a faster than expected share shift towards the domestics, do you believe you need to ramp up additional capacity in China to serve them, the domestic OEMs or would you be able to leverage your existing footprint?

如果份額轉移到國內的速度比預期的要快，您是否認為需要增加在中國的產能來為他們（國內 OEM）提供服務，或者您是否能夠利用現有的產能？

Yes, We'll start with the first part. 2027 was the time frame that we had in mind in terms of that 10 points of share shift between now and then. And so in certain cases, we may be able to repurpose capacity that we have, particularly in our component plants and in our wire business with traditional customers, we could repurpose much of that capacity for domestic Chinese customers if that business opportunity presents itself.

是的，我們從第一部分開始。就從現在到那時份額變化 10 個百分點而言，2027 年是我們考慮的時間範圍。因此，在某些情況下，我們可以重新利用現有的產能，特別是我們的零件工廠和與傳統客戶的電線業務，如果有這樣的商業機會，我們可以將大部分產能重新用於中國國內客戶。

A lot of that will depend on the physical location of the customer plant in question. And so if there's a mismatch there, then you may see some additional CapEx to support growth with the Chinese domestics. If they're more successful taking share more quickly.

這很大程度取決於相關客戶工廠的實際位置。因此，如果存在不匹配的情況，那麼您可能會看到一些額外的資本支出來支持中國國內的成長。如果他們更成功，就能更快佔領市場份額。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just as a last follow up. Just if you got time, just the last follow up on the corporate EBIT improvement, it looks like, you've seen 3Q and 2Q this year a bit below where we were looking at in the past. Is this something you expect to be consistent level going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝。然後作為最後的跟進。如果你有時間的話，上次跟進企業息稅前利潤的改善情況時，看起來，今年第三季和第二季的息稅前利潤略低於我們過去的預期。您是否期望這在未來能保持一致的水平？

Yes. It's -- I wouldn't say -- I think the full year guidance has us down in the headquarters about $6 million. So it comes back up a little bit in the fourth quarter. So there's a little bit of choppiness quarter to quarter. So I think that 2023 actual and our 2024 guidance is where we're trying to run that headquarter strip that.

是的。我不會說，我認為全年指導價讓我們總部的支出下降了約 600 萬美元。因此在第四季有所回升。因此季度間存在一些波動。因此，我認為，2023 年的實際結果和 2024 年的指導目標是，我們正試圖實現總部剝離這一目標。

But it depends on the level of opportunities we have and things like idea by Lear. If we see an opportunity to invest and we need to support that in a corporate line initiative, and you could see that number move up a little bit to support that. But I wouldn't expect meaningful changes in that number in the near term.

但這取決於我們擁有的機會水平以及李爾的想法等。如果我們看到投資機​​會，並且我們需要在企業路線計劃中支持它，那麼你會看到這個數字略有上升以支持這一點。但我預計短期內這個數字不會有重大變化。

Much appreciated.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Okay, thanks. Well I think that's it for the questions. I think those remaining on the phone are the Lear team. And I just, again, want to acknowledge all the hard work. I appreciate what everyone is doing. I know we're not -- we and happy with where we're at. Obviously, there's a lot of things going on in the industry that we're challenged with.

好的，謝謝。好吧，我想問題就這些了。我認為留在電話裡的人是李爾團隊的。我只是想再次感謝大家的辛勤工作。我感謝大家所做的一切。我知道我們並不——我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。顯然，我們面臨著產業中發生的許多挑戰。

But I do appreciate all the hard work on focusing on the things that we can control. There's no question that we have the right strategy. We're doing the right thing for investing in the organization, in our capital, in our products. And we will win at the end of the day, and I do appreciate all of the efforts that we're making to manage through these very difficult times. So thanks for all your hard work. Appreciate it.

但我確實感謝所有為專注於我們能夠控制的事情而付出的努力。毫無疑問，我們的策略是正確的。我們對組織、資本和產品的投資都是正確的事。我們最終會取得勝利，我非常感謝我們為度過這些非常困難的時期所做的一切努力。感謝您所有的努力。非常感謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議就到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路了。