Lear Corp (LEA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Lear Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加李爾公司 2023 年第二季財報會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ed Lowenfeld, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Ed Lowenfeld 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Lear's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Presenting today are Ray Scott, Lear President and CEO; and Jason Cardew, Senior Vice President and CFO. Other members of Lear's senior management team have also joined us on the call. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. You can find a copy of the presentation that accompanies these remarks at ir.lear.com.

謝謝，傑夫。大家早安，感謝您參加李爾 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。今天出席會議的有李爾總裁兼執行長雷‧斯科特 (Ray Scott)；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Jason Cardew。李爾高階管理團隊的其他成員也加入了我們的電話會議。在準備好發言後，我們將開始問答環節。您可以在 ir.lear.com 上找到伴隨這些評論的簡報副本。

Before we begin, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that as we conduct this call, we will be making forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding Lear's expectations for the future. As detailed in our safe harbor statement on Slide 2, our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10-Q and other periodic reports.

在我們開始之前，我想藉此機會提醒您，在我們進行本次電話會議時，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，以幫助您了解李爾對未來的期望。正如我們在投影片 2 上的安全港聲明中所詳述的那樣，由於我們最新的 10-Q 報告和其他定期報告中討論的許多因素，我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

I also want to remind you that during today's presentation, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. You are directed to the slides in the appendix of our presentation for the reconciliation of non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

我也想提醒大家，在今天的演示中，我們將提及非公認會計準則財務指標。您將看到我們簡報附錄中的投影片，了解非公認會計準則項目與最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量指標的調節。

The agenda for today's call is on Slide 3. First, Ray will review highlights from the quarter and provide a business update. Jason will then review our second quarter financial results. Finally, Ray will offer some concluding remarks. Following the formal presentation, we would be happy to take your questions.

今天電話會議的議程位於幻燈片 3 上。首先，Ray 將回顧本季的亮點並提供業務更新。然後傑森將回顧我們第二季度的財務表現。最後，Ray 將做一些總結性發言。正式演示結束後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Now I'd like to invite Ray to begin.

現在我想請雷開始。

Thanks, Ed. Now please turn to Slide 5, which highlights key financial metrics for the second quarter. Lear's positive momentum accelerated in the quarter. $6 billion of total company revenue was a quarterly record, an 18% increase compared to last year. Core operating earnings were the highest in over 2 years, increasing by 61% from last year. Adjusted earnings per share increased 86%, and operating cash flow improved significantly to $311 million for the quarter.

謝謝，艾德。現在請看投影片 5，其中重點介紹了第二季的主要財務指標。李爾的積極勢頭在本季加速。公司總營收 60 億美元，創季紀錄，比去年成長 18%。核心營業利潤創兩年多來最高，較去年成長61%。該季度調整後每股收益成長 86%，營運現金流大幅改善至 3.11 億美元。

Slide 6 summarizes key highlights from the quarter. Both Seating and E-Systems continued their positive momentum, with significant improvements in operating results for the quarter. Sales growth outperformed global industry production, driven by strong growth in E-Systems. The pace of new business awards continues to accelerate in these systems. The average annual revenue of awards we have won to date is over 50% more than last year.

投影片 6 總結了本季的主要亮點。座椅和電子系統持續保持正面勢頭，本季營運表現顯著改善。在電子系統強勁成長的推動下，銷售成長超過了全球工業生產。這些系統中新業務獎勵的步伐持續加快。迄今為止，我們獲得的獎項平均年收入比去年增加了50%以上。

In Seating, we continue to build our thermal comfort capabilities. Today, we announced we are working with Valeo to explore opportunities to integrate Valeo's HVAC expertise with Lear's thermal comfort technologies to optimize heating and cooling within a vehicle. This energy-efficient solution is expected to improve comfort for the occupants, while extending the range for electric vehicles.

在座椅方面，我們持續增強熱舒適能力。今天，我們宣布正在與法雷奧合作，探索將法雷奧的暖通空調專業知識與李爾的熱舒適技術相結合的機會，以優化車輛內的加熱和冷卻。這種節能解決方案預計將提高乘員的舒適度，同時擴大電動車的續航里程。

As announced during our Seating Product Day, we entered into a partnership with Bentley to provide the first commercial application for our INTU comfort and wellness technology. And we continue to return cash to shareholders. Year-to-date, we have repurchased over $63 million worth of stock in addition to our quarterly dividend.

正如我們在座椅產品日期間宣布的那樣，我們與 Bentley 建立了合作夥伴關係，為我們的 INTU 舒適和健康技術提供第一個商業應用。我們繼續向股東返還現金。今年迄今為止，除了季度股息外，我們還回購了價值超過 6,300 萬美元的股票。

In early July, we published our 2022 sustainability report, which highlights the progress we have made towards achieving our goals for climate, sustainable product development and DEI initiatives. We continue to be recognized for our focus on our employees. Lear was named one of the top 200 Best Companies to Work For by U.S. News & World Report.

7 月初，我們發布了 2022 年永續發展報告，其中強調了我們在實現氣候、永續產品開發和 DEI 措施目標方面所取得的進展。我們因對員工的關注而繼續獲得認可。李爾被《美國新聞與世界報道》評為 200 家最佳雇主之一。

In late June, we are excited to hold our first-ever Seating Product Day. where we outline the steps we are taking to extend our leadership position in Seating. During the event, we highlighted innovative technologies and strategic initiatives that will enable us to continue to grow market share and expand our segment-leading margins.

六月下旬，我們很高興舉辦首屆座椅產品日。我們概述了我們為擴大我們在座椅領域的領導地位所採取的步驟。活動期間，我們重點介紹了創新技術和策略性舉措，這些舉措將使我們能夠繼續擴大市場份額並擴大我們領先的利潤率。

Slide 7 highlights the major announcements we made at our Seating Product Day. During that event, we described our plan to deepen and widen our competitive moat in Seating, as we change the sourcing model for thermal comfort components by offering a better value proposition to our customers. We increased Lear's 2023 outlook, along with our long-term market share and margin targets in Seating. We highlighted new business awards supporting the significant opportunities we have identified as we build out our Thermal Comfort Systems business.

投影片 7 重點介紹了我們在座椅產品日發布的主要公告。在那次活動中，我們描述了深化和拓寬座椅領域競爭護城河的計劃，透過為客戶提供更好的價值主張來改變熱舒適部件的採購模式。我們上調了李爾 2023 年的展望，以及我們在座椅領域的長期市佔率和利潤率目標。我們強調了新的業務獎項，以支持我們在建立熱舒適系統業務時發現的重大機會。

Our first production award for INTU and FlexAir demonstrates our success, bringing innovative technologies to market. INTU is our intuitive seating system and FlexAir is our sustainable foam alternative that is 100% recyclable and delivers a CO2 emissions improvement of 50% over traditional foam.

我們為 INTU 和 FlexAir 頒發的第一個生產獎證明了我們將創新技術推向市場的成功。 INTU 是我們直覺的座椅系統，FlexAir 是我們的永續泡棉替代品，它 100% 可回收，二氧化碳排放量比傳統泡棉減少 50%。

Turning to Slide 8. I will provide some more details on the progress we have made in E-Systems. The second quarter's resulted -- results marked our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin improvement in E-Systems, and the business is on track for further improvements in the second half of this year. And our focus on core products where we can provide our customers with unique solutions has resulted in an acceleration of business awards.

轉向幻燈片 8。我將提供有關我們在電子系統方面取得的進展的更多詳細資訊。第二季的結果標誌著我們的電子系統利潤率連續第四個季度同比增長，並且該業務預計將在今年下半年進一步改善。我們專注於核心產品，為客戶提供獨特的解決方案，加速了業務獎項的獲得。

In wiring, we have won new contracts for both high voltage and low voltage harnesses with several OEMs, including our first wiring award with BMW. Consistent with our strategy, we continue to diversify our customer base, and this award is another example of leveraging strong OEM relationships across business segments.

在佈線方面，我們贏得了多家 OEM 的高壓和低壓線束新合同，其中包括與 BMW 的第一個佈線合約。根據我們的策略，我們繼續實現客戶群多元化，該獎項是利用跨業務部門強大的 OEM 關係的另一個例子。

A significant driver of the year-over-year growth in business awards is our electronics portfolio. As we mentioned last quarter, we expanded our leadership in high-performance BDUs with an award from Stellantis. During the quarter, we also began shipping preproduction parts for our ICBs to General Motors to support their planned ramp of the Ultium battery production.

我們的電子產品組合是商業獎項同比增長的重要推動力。正如我們上季度提到的，透過 Stellantis 的獎勵，我們擴大了在高效能 BDU 的領導地位。在本季度，我們也開始向通用汽車運送 ICB 的預生產零件，以支持他們計劃的 Ultium 電池產量提升。

In total, 50% of our year-to-date awards are for electrification. We continue to execute our strategy to grow connection systems. During the quarter, we expanded our global engineered component capabilities by opening a plant in Morocco. We are also increasing our capabilities and capacity in China.

總的來說，我們今年迄今的獎項中有 50% 是針對電氣化的。我們繼續執行發展連結系統的策略。本季度，我們在摩洛哥開設了一家工廠，擴大了我們的全球工程零件能力。我們也在增強我們在中國的能力和產能。

These awards, along with the opportunities we are pursuing in the second half, put us on track to achieve our third straight year of $1 billion of sales backlog for E-Systems.

這些獎項以及我們在下半年尋求的機會，使我們有望連續第三年實現電子系統 10 億美元的積壓銷售。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jason for the financial review.

現在我想把電話轉給傑森進行財務審查。

Thanks, Ray. Slide 10 shows vehicle production and key exchange rates for the second quarter. Global production increased 15% compared to the same period last year and was also up 15% on a later sales weighted basis. Volumes were higher in each of our key markets, with North America and Europe up 15% and China up 19%. From a currency standpoint, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro to strengthen against the RMB compared to 2022. These two largely offset. Revenues in the quarter were also negatively impacted by other currencies, which weakened against the dollar, including the South African rands and Korean won.

謝謝，雷。幻燈片 10 顯示了第二季的汽車產量和主要匯率。與去年同期相比，全球產量增加了 15%，以後來的銷售加權計算也成長了 15%。我們每個主要市場的銷量均有所增加，其中北美和歐洲成長了 15%，中國成長了 19%。從貨幣角度來看，與2022年相比，美元兌歐元走弱，兌人民幣走強。這兩者很大程度上抵銷了。該季度的營收也受到其他貨幣兌美元走軟的負面影響，其中包括南非蘭特和韓元。

Slide 11 highlights Lear's growth over market. For the second quarter, total company growth over market was 2 percentage points, driven by strong growth over market in E-Systems of 11 points. Growth over market was particularly strong in Europe and China.

投影片 11 重點介紹了李爾的市場成長。第二季度，在電子系統市場強勁成長 11 個百分點的推動下，公司整體成長率高於市場 2 個百分點。歐洲和中國的市場成長尤其強勁。

In Europe, sales outperformed the industry production by 6 points, with both business segments benefiting from higher volumes on the Land Rover, Range Rover and Defender. New programs, such as the BMW 5 and 7 series in Seating and new wiring and electronics content on the Volvo XC40 and XC40 recharge and E-Systems, contributed to the strong growth in the region as well.

在歐洲，銷售量比產業產量高出 6 個百分點，這兩個業務部門都受益於路虎、路虎攬勝和衛士銷售的增加。新項目，例如 BMW 5 和 7 系列座椅以及沃爾沃 XC40 和 XC40 充電和電子系統上的新佈線和電子內容，也為該地區的強勁增長做出了貢獻。

In China, growth over market of 10 points was driven by strong growth in both business segments. The growth in Seating resulted from the new Geely ZEEKR program and leather sales to BYD. In E-Systems, growth was driven by a strong production on the Volvo XC40, XC40 Recharge and the Polestar 2.

在中國，兩個業務領域的強勁成長推動了市場成長 10 個百分點。座椅業務的成長得益於新的吉利ZEEKR計劃以及向比亞迪的皮革銷售。在電子系統領域，Volvo XC40、XC40 Recharge 和 Polestar 2 的強勁生產推動了成長。

In North America, total revenue grew more than 11%, excluding FX, commodity and acquisitions due to volume increases in new business in both segments. While Seating revenue increased by almost 9%, consistent with our expectations, unfavorable platform mix on several key programs resulted in total company growth that was 4 points lower than the industry.

在北美，不包括外匯、大宗商品和收購的總收入成長超過 11%，因為這兩個領域的新業務量都有所增加。雖然座椅收入成長了近 9%，與我們的預期一致，但幾個關鍵項目的不利平台組合導致公司總成長率比產業低 4 個百分點。

For the first half of the year, total company growth over market was 3 percentage points, with Seating growing 3 points above market and E-Systems growing 6 points above market.

上半年，公司整體成長率高於市場 3 個百分點，其中 Seating 成長率高於市場 3 個百分點，E-Systems 成長率高於市場 6 個百分點。

Turning to Slide 12. I will highlight our financial results for the second quarter of 2023. Sales increased 18% year-over-year to a record $6 billion. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, commodities and acquisitions, sales were up by 17%, reflecting increased production on key Lear platforms and the addition of new business in both segments.

轉向投影片 12。我將重點介紹我們 2023 年第二季的財務表現。銷售額年增 18%，達到創紀錄的 60 億美元。排除外匯、大宗商品和收購的影響，銷售額增長了 17%，反映出李爾主要平台產量的增加以及兩個細分市場新業務的增加。

Our operating earnings were $302 million compared to $187 million last year. The increase in earnings resulted from the impact of higher production on Lear platforms and the addition of new business. Adjusted earnings per share improved significantly to $3.33 as compared to $1.79 a year ago. Operating cash flow generated in the quarter was $311 million compared to $11 million in 2022.

我們的營業利潤為 3.02 億美元，而去年為 1.87 億美元。收益的成長是由於李爾平台產量增加和新業務增加的影響。調整後每股收益從一年前的 1.79 美元大幅提高至 3.33 美元。本季產生的營運現金流為 3.11 億美元，而 2022 年為 1,100 萬美元。

The increase in operating cash flow was due to higher earnings and an improvement in working capital relative to last year. Improved working capital was driven primarily by the timing of customer and supplier payments as well as improved performance in both businesses with inventory management.

經營現金流的增加是由於與去年相比收益增加和營運資本改善。營運資金的改善主要是由於客戶和供應商付款的時間安排以及庫存管理方面兩項業務績效的提高所推動的。

Slide 13 explains the variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the Seating segment. Sales for the second quarter were $4.5 billion, an increase of $594 million or 15% from 2022, driven primarily by an increase in volumes on Lear platforms and our strong backlog.

投影片 13 解釋了座椅細分市場的銷售額差異和調整後的營業利潤率。第二季銷售額為 45 億美元，比 2022 年增加 5.94 億美元，增幅為 15%，主要是由於李爾平台銷售的增加和我們強勁的積壓訂單所致。

Key backlog programs include the BMW 5 and 7 Series in Europe, the Chevrolet Colorado, GMC Canyon and Mercedes EQE and EQS SUVs in North America as well as the Geely ZEEKR and NEO ES8 in China. Excluding the impact of commodities, foreign exchange and acquisitions, sales were up 14%. Core operating earnings improved to $322 million, up $89 million or 38% from 2022, with adjusted operating margins of 7.2%.

主要積壓項目包括歐洲的寶馬 5 系列和 7 系列、北美的雪佛蘭 Colorado、GMC Canyon 和梅賽德斯 EQE 和 EQS SUV，以及中國的吉利 ZEEKR 和 NEO ES8。剔除大宗商品、外匯和收購的影響，銷售額成長了 14%。核心營業利潤增至 3.22 億美元，較 2022 年增加 8,900 萬美元，即 38%，調整後營業利潤率為 7.2%。

The improvement in margins reflected higher volumes on Lear platforms and our margin-accretive backlog. Favorable net performance was partially offset by higher engineering spending and launch costs to support Conquest and other new business awards.

利潤率的提高反映了李爾平台銷售的增加以及我們增加利潤的積壓訂單。良好的淨業績部分被更高的工程支出和支援征服和其他新業務獎項的啟動成本所抵消。

Slide 14 explains the variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the E-Systems segment. Sales for the second quarter were $1.5 billion, an increase of $334 million or 28% from 2022. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange and commodities, sales were up 26%, driven primarily by higher volumes on key platforms and our strong backlog.

投影片 14 解釋了電子系統部門的銷售額差異和調整後的營業利潤率。第二季銷售額為15 億美元，較2022 年增加3.34 億美元，增幅為28%。排除外匯和大宗商品的影響，銷售額增長26%，這主要是由關鍵平台銷量增加和我們強勁的積壓訂單推動的。

Key backlog programs include the Volvo XC40 Recharge in Europe, new wiring programs with a global EV OEM in North America and Europe, the Buick Electra E5 in China and the Ford Super Duty in North America. Core operating earnings improved to $63 million, or 4.1% of sales, compared to $24 million and 2% of sales in 2022. The improvement in margins reflected higher volumes on Lear platforms and a margin-accretive backlog, partially offset by the dilutive impact of passing through higher commodity costs to our customers, increased engineering and launch costs to support new programs and the impact of foreign exchange.

主要積壓項目包括歐洲的Volvo XC40 Recharge、北美和歐洲的全球電動車 OEM 的新接線項目、中國的別克 Electra E5 以及北美的福特 Super Duty。核心營業利潤增至6,300 萬美元，佔銷售額的4.1%，而2022 年為2,400 萬美元，佔銷售額的2%。利潤率的改善反映了李爾平台銷量的增加和利潤增長的積壓，部分被將更高的商品成本轉嫁給我們的客戶，增加了支持新項目的工程和啟動成本以及外匯的影響。

Looking ahead, net performance is expected to improve due to lower launch costs as well as efficiency improvements that started to deliver results late in the second quarter and will have a larger impact in the second half of the year.

展望未來，由於發射成本降低以及效率提高，預計淨業績將有所改善，效率提高將於第二季末開始顯現，並將在下半年產生更大影響。

Now shifting to our 2023 outlook, which was updated at our Seating Product Day on June 27. The Slide 15 provides global vehicle production volumes and currency assumptions that form the basis of our full year outlook. We base our production assumptions on several sources, including internal estimates, customer production schedules and S&P forecast.

現在轉向我們的 2023 年展望，該展望在 6 月 27 日的座椅產品日上進行了更新。幻燈片 15 提供了全球汽車產量和貨幣假設，這些展望構成了我們全年展望的基礎。我們的生產假設是基於多個來源，包括內部估計、客戶生產計劃和標準普爾預測。

At the midpoint of our guidance range, we assume that global industry production will be 4% higher than in 2022, or 5% higher on a Lear sales weighted basis. At the high end of our guidance range, our global production assumptions are generally aligned with the S&P forecast.

在我們指導範圍的中點，我們假設全球工業產量將比 2022 年高出 4%，或以李爾銷售額加權計算高出 5%。在我們指導範圍的高端，我們的全球產量假設總體上與標準普爾預測一致。

From a currency perspective, our 2023 outlook assumes an average euro exchange rate of $1.07 per euro and an average Chinese RMB exchange rate of RMB 6.96 to the dollar. This reflects exchange rates of USD 1.05 per euro and RMB 7 to the dollar for the balance of the year.

從貨幣角度來看，我們對2023年的展望假設歐元平均匯率為1.07美元兌1歐元，人民幣平均匯率為6.96人民幣兌1美元。這反映了今年剩餘時間內歐元兌換 1.05 美元以及人民幣兌換 7 美元的匯率。

Slide 16 provides more detail on our current outlook. On June 27, we increased our 2023 outlook for net sales, core operating earnings and free cash flow. As I will describe in more detail on the next two slides, the midpoint of our sales guidance includes $350 million of contingency for potential downtime from customer labor contract negotiations. To the extent customer production disruptions are minimal, we would expect sales, earnings and cash flow to be closer to the high end of our guidance range. On the next two slides, I'll provide more details on the key assumptions reflected in our second half outlook for both Seating and E-systems.

幻燈片 16 提供了有關我們當前前景的更多詳細資訊。 6 月 27 日，我們上調了 2023 年淨銷售額、核心營運收益和自由現金流的預期。正如我將在接下來的兩張幻燈片中更詳細地描述的那樣，我們的銷售指導中位數包括 3.5 億美元的應急費用，以應對客戶勞動合約談判中可能出現的停機情況。在客戶生產中斷最小化的情況下，我們預期銷售額、收益和現金流量將更接近我們指導範圍的高端。在接下來的兩張幻燈片中，我將提供有關座椅和電子系統下半年展望中所反映的關鍵假設的更多詳細資訊。

Slide 17 compares our second half outlook to our first half actual results for sales and core operating earnings in the Seating segment. We are forecasting the midpoint of our second half sales outlook to be approximately $8.1 billion, down $817 million from our first half actual results, reflecting lower volumes due to seasonal shutdowns in the third quarter in North America and Europe as well as the impact of foreign exchange. The midpoint of our revenue guidance in Seating protects for approximately $300 million for potential effects of customer labor negotiations. The midpoint of our second half operating income outlook is $522 million or 6.4%. At the high end of our guidance range, we expect Seating margins at 6.9% compared to 7% in the first half of the year.

第 17 張投影片將我們下半年的展望與上半年座椅細分市場的銷售和核心營業收入的實際結果進行了比較。我們預計下半年銷售前景的中位數約為 81 億美元，比上半年實際業績減少 8.17 億美元，反映出北美和歐洲第三季度季節性停工以及國外市場影響導致銷量下降。交換。我們在座椅方面的收入指導中位數可以為客戶勞資談判的潛在影響提供約 3 億美元的保護。我們下半年營業收入預期的中位數為 5.22 億美元，即 6.4%。在我們指導範圍的高端，我們預計席位利潤率為 6.9%，而今年上半年為 7%。

The reduction in operating income reflects the expected impact from lower volumes on our Seating platforms, partially offset by the benefit of commercial negotiations and improved operating performance as well as savings associated with restructuring actions to optimize capacity, improve efficiencies and lower labor costs. We do expect lower margins in the third quarter due to seasonal volume and higher launch and engineering costs to support our strong new business backlog and recent Conquest awards.

營業收入的減少反映了我們座椅平台銷售下降的預期影響，部分被商業談判的好處和經營業績的改善以及與優化產能、提高效率和降低勞動力成本的重組行動相關的節省所抵消。我們確實預計第三季的利潤率會下降，原因是季節性銷量以及更高的啟動和工程成本，以支持我們強勁的新業務積壓和最近的征服獎項。

Slide 18 compares our second half outlook to our first half actual results for sales and core operating earnings in the E-Systems segment. We are forecasting the midpoint of our second half sales outlook to be approximately $2.75 billion, down $172 million from our first half actual results, reflecting lower volumes and the impact of foreign exchange. The midpoint of our revenue guidance in E-Systems protects for approximately $50 million for potential effects of customer labor negotiations.

第 18 張投影片將我們下半年的展望與上半年電子系統部門的銷售和核心營業收入的實際結果進行了比較。我們預計下半年銷售前景的中位數約為 27.5 億美元，比上半年實際業績減少 1.72 億美元，反映出銷售下降和外匯影響。我們的電子系統收入指導中點為客戶勞資談判的潛在影響提供了約 5000 萬美元的保護。

The midpoint of our second half operating income outlook is approximately $148 million or 5.4%, an increase of $36 million from our first half actual results. At the high end of our guidance range, we expect E-Systems margins of 5.8% compared to 3.8% in the first half of the year. We expect to offset the impact of reduced volumes through a combination of lower engineering and launch costs, performance improvements and additional commercial recoveries.

我們下半年營業收入預期的中位數約為 1.48 億美元，即 5.4%，比上半年實際業績增加了 3,600 萬美元。在我們指導範圍的高端，我們預計電子系統的利潤率為 5.8%，而今年上半年為 3.8%。我們希望透過降低工程和發射成本、提高性能和額外的商業回收來抵消銷售減少的影響。

In addition, our wiring business was impacted by supply issues during the first half of the year, particularly in North America. We saw improvements in plant productivity and efficiencies in late June that carried into July. We expect improvements to continue through the second half of the year.

此外，我們的佈線業務在上半年受到供應問題的影響，特別是在北美。我們看到 6 月下旬工廠生產力和效率有所改善，這種情況一直持續到 7 月。我們預計下半年情況將持續改善。

Moving to Slide 19. We highlight our strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, a major competitive advantage for Lear in a rising interest rate environment. The acquisition of IGB was largely financed with a 3-year fully prepayable term loan. We do not have any near-term debt maturities. Our earliest bond maturity is in 2027, and our debt structure has a weighted average life of approximately 14 years.

轉向投影片 19。我們強調我們強大的資產負債表和流動性狀況，這是李爾在利率上升環境中的主要競爭優勢。 IGB 的收購主要透過 3 年期全額預付定期貸款融資。我們沒有任何短期債務到期。我們最早的債券到期日為 2027 年，我們的債務結構的加權平均壽命約為 14 年。

Our cost of debt is low, averaging approximately 4%. In addition, we have $2.9 billion of available liquidity. We remain committed to returning excess cash to our shareholders, having repurchased $63 million worth of stock in the first half of the year, and we continue to repurchase shares in the third quarter. Our current share repurchase authorization has approximately $1.2 billion remaining, which allows us to repurchase shares through December 31, 2024.

我們的債務成本很低，平均約 4%。此外，我們還有 29 億美元的可用流動資金。我們仍然致力於向股東返還多餘的現金，在上半年回購了價值 6,300 萬美元的股票，並將在第三季繼續回購股票。我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘約 12 億美元，這使我們能夠在 2024 年 12 月 31 日之前回購股票。

Now I'll turn it back to Ray for some closing thoughts.

現在我將把它轉回給雷，讓他聽聽我的一些結束語。

Thanks, Jason. Please turn to Slide 21. The second quarter results illustrate why I'm more confident in the opportunities for Lear and our industry than I have been in several years. We are focusing on areas we can control, while continuing to monitor industry and economic conditions that could impact our operations.

謝謝，傑森。請參閱投影片 21。第二季的業績說明了為什麼我對李爾和我們產業的機會比過去幾年更有信心。我們專注於我們可以控制的領域，同時繼續監控可能影響我們營運的行業和經濟狀況。

In Seating, we are executing Phase 1 of our thermal comfort strategy, while continuing to develop modular solutions. Working with Valeo, we are exploring innovative ways to optimize occupant comfort, while extending EV range. These unique solutions add value for our customers and increase the penetration rates of our thermal comfort component.

在座椅領域，我們正在執行熱舒適策略的第一階段，同時繼續開發模組化解決方案。我們與法雷奧合作，探索創新方法來優化乘員舒適度，同時擴大電動車的續航里程。這些獨特的解決方案為我們的客戶增加了價值，並提高了我們熱舒適組件的滲透率。

In E-Systems, our focused product portfolio allows us to optimize our resources and improve margins. This quarter was a key inflection point to accelerate margin improvements through the second half of this year. Through our leadership and operational excellence, we have identified key efficiency opportunities that will improve our cost competitiveness to deliver improved margins and cash flow.

在 E-Systems 中，我們的重點產品組合使我們能夠優化資源並提高利潤。本季是今年下半年加速利潤率改善的關鍵轉捩點。憑藉我們的領導力和卓越運營，我們已經確定了關鍵的效率機會，這些機會將提高我們的成本競爭力，從而提高利潤和現金流。

I'd like to thank the team for a great first half, and I am confident we will continue to deliver on our goals going forward. And now we'd be happy to take your questions.

我要感謝球隊上半場的出色表現，我相信我們將繼續實現我們的目標。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello 提出。

Just with respect to the guide, based on the midpoint to high-end swing factors, Jason, I know you called this out, but I just want to confirm what is baked into the midpoint of the guide with respect to the UAW labor disruptions potential?

就指南而言，基於中點到高端的波動因素，傑森，我知道您指出了這一點，但我只想確認指南中點中關於 UAW 勞動力中斷潛力的內容？

Yes, James, we included $350 million at the midpoint of the guidance. So, that's $300 million in Seating and $50 million in E-Systems. So our Seating revenue is more weighted to North America than our E-Systems revenue. It's about 45% of sales in Seating, about 30% of E-Systems. So that's why there's a disproportionate impact on Seating if there were to be a labor disruption.

是的，詹姆斯，我們在指導意見的中點加入了 3.5 億美元。因此，座椅費用為 3 億美元，電子系統費用為 5,000 萬美元。因此，我們的座椅收入比我們的電子系統收入更注重北美。它約佔座椅銷售額的 45%，約佔電子系統銷售額的 30%。這就是為什麼如果出現勞動力中斷，會對座位造成不成比例的影響。

Okay. And that's already rolled into the LVP, the global LVP assumption of up 4?

好的。這已經計入 LVP，全球 LVP 假設上升 4？

Yes.

是的。

Got it. And then just -- I appreciate the first half to second half bridges that are provided. But on a year-over-year basis, how should we be thinking about the commodities impact by segment? And to what extent are recoveries already negotiated for the back half? I mean could this number move around depending upon the UAW outcome? Or are the commercial negotiations largely locked in?

知道了。然後，我很欣賞所提供的前半部分到後半部分的橋樑。但與去年同期相比，我們應該如何考慮按細分市場劃分的大宗商品影響？後半段的復甦已經在多大程度上進行了談判？我的意思是這個數字會根據 UAW 的結果而改變嗎？或商業談判基本上已鎖定？

So as I think about the second half, there is some level of commercial negotiation benefit factored into both segments. I think it's 60 basis points in E-Systems and 45 basis points in Seating.

因此，當我想到下半年時，這兩個部分都考慮到了一定程度的商業談判利益。我認為電子系統為 60 個基點，座位為 45 個基點。

The bigger factors that are really going to drive that second half for us, particularly in E-Systems, are somewhat in our control. And we talked about specifically the efficiencies that we're expecting to see in North America, primarily in wire, but also impacting our electronics business.

真正推動我們下半年發展的更大因素，特別是在電子系統方面，在某種程度上是我們可以控制的。我們特別討論了我們期望在北美看到的效率，主要是在電線方面，但也會影響我們的電子業務。

And we really had an inflection point here in the second quarter that gives us a lot more confidence in the outlook for the balance of the year. We saw improvements in June. We saw those improvements and efficiencies continue in July. And so we're on a good trajectory as we head through the balance of the year in E-Systems to deliver that sort of 200-plus basis points of margin improvement in the performance categories that we outlined on the slide.

我們在第二季度確實遇到了一個拐點，這讓我們對今年剩餘時間的前景更有信心。我們在六月看到了進步。我們看到這些改進和效率在 7 月仍在繼續。因此，當我們在 E-Systems 今年的餘下時間裡，我們正處於良好的軌道上，在我們在幻燈片中概述的績效類別中實現 200 多個基點的利潤率改善。

In terms of commodities, specifically, really, that's reflected in the additional commercial negotiations that we expect to benefit the second half of the year. That's really all we see with commodities. We don't see a lot of movement in raw material prices at this stage.

具體而言，就大宗商品而言，這實際上反映在我們預計將受益下半年的額外商業談判中。這就是我們在大宗商品上看到的一切。現階段我們沒有看到原物料價格有太大波動。

Steel in North America seems to have stabilized. It's come down a little bit here in the third quarter so far. And towards the end of the second quarter, copper has been pretty stable as well. So not seen a lot of movement on raw materials.

北美鋼鐵市場似乎已趨於穩定。到目前為止，第三季度有所下降。到第二季末，銅價也相當穩定。因此，原材料方面沒有看到太多變動。

We are seeing a little bit of benefit on lower ocean freight rates and some of those things sort of on the periphery and not a real meaningful impact as we think about the balance of the year.

我們看到較低的海運費以及其中一些外圍因素帶來了一些好處，但當我們考慮今年的剩餘時間時，並沒有真正有意義的影響。

The next question will come from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納提出。

Just to follow up on this topic of supply issues in wiring and electronics and the efficiencies that we're starting to see. Can you just provide a little bit more color on what the issue is basically where? And what you're currently seeing in terms of that situation?

只是為了跟進佈線和電子設備的供應問題以及我們開始看到的效率這個主題。您能否提供更多資訊來說明問題的根源？您目前看到的情況如何？

Yes, Emmanuel, the first half was more challenged with some of these, call it, nonrecurring events or cost events that we're struggling with. There was a fire with one of our major suppliers that impacted production in our facilities just because of the ability to get material.

是的，伊曼紐爾，上半年面臨的挑戰更大，其中一些是我們正在努力應對的偶發事件或成本事件。我們的一個主要供應商發生火災，僅僅因為無法取得材料就影響了我們工廠的生產。

We are staffing up and launching and the challenges of getting labor in an efficient manner within our facilities and just the training of that labor. And the ability for us to get the headcount in was at a higher level than what the production volumes were.

我們正在配備人員並發起挑戰，以在我們的設施內以有效的方式獲得勞動力，並對勞動力進行培訓。我們獲得員工數量的能力高於產量的水平。

And then there's just some premium costs that got associated with the transportation cost. Because when you're running an inefficient environment like that, you're running your plants intermittently and then shipping out and then having to catch up and shipping those parts through premium transportation. A lot of that, if not, most of it is dissipated, is gone.

然後還有一些與運輸成本相關的額外費用。因為當您運行這樣一個低效的環境時，您會間歇性地運行工廠，然後發貨，然後必須通過高級運輸來趕上並運輸這些零件。其中很多，如果沒有的話，大部分都消散了，消失了。

And so the challenges that we saw in the first half were due to those type of circumstances. What we're seeing right now and why I got more excited, Jason said it again, is the inflection point. The second quarter exceeded our own internal expectations despite those challenges. And what we're seeing right now, early indications is we're on track, on target for these improvements of inefficiencies within our plants.

因此，我們在上半年看到的挑戰就是因為這種情況造成的。傑森再次說道，我們現在所看到的以及為什麼我變得更加興奮，這就是轉折點。儘管有這些挑戰，第二季還是超出了我們的內部預期。我們現在看到的早期跡象表明，我們正在步入正軌，達到改善工廠效率低下的目標。

We had -- if you think through from last to the early part of this year, we've already achieved 50% of the improvements required with already good momentum heading into this quarter of seeing the trajectory or the improvement trajectory of efficiencies at our plants.

如果你仔細想想，從去年到今年年初，我們已經實現了所需改進的 50%，進入本季度就已經取得了良好的勢頭，可以看到我們工廠效率的軌跡或改進軌跡。

And so we're very optimistic about the second half. We have work to do. But what's nice about this, Emmanuel, is that it's in our control. There for a period of time, there was a lot of things that we're working and working with suppliers or transportation companies or downtime with our customers. These are things that we can control, and we're good at.

所以我們對下半年非常樂觀。我們還有工作要做。但伊曼紐爾，這件事的好處在於它在我們的掌控之下。有一段時間，我們正在與供應商或運輸公司合作，或與客戶一起進行很多工作。這些是我們可以控制並且我們擅長的事情。

And so I feel very positive and optimistic about the second half because it's in our backyard. It's things that we're good at. And so we did manage through those things, but we are seeing a much brighter future in some of those challenges that we had in the first half.

所以我對下半年感到非常積極和樂觀，因為它是在我們的後院。這是我們擅長的事。因此，我們確實解決了這些問題，但我們在上半年遇到的一些挑戰中看到了更光明的未來。

Great to hear. Then my second question is on the Seating margin outlook for this year and then your longer-term targets. I think this year's margin, if we went for net commodities and inflation, I think, would be something like maybe 8.3% in the outlook in 2023.

很高興聽到。那麼我的第二個問題是關於今年的席位利潤前景以及你們的長期目標。我認為，如果我們考慮淨商品和通貨膨脹，2023 年的前景可能是 8.3%。

I think, at the same time, the Seating Day you're targeting better than 8.5% sort of 4 years out. And so what is the outlook for recovering over time some of these commodities and inflation inefficiencies. Is there sort of like the path for that? And if that's the case, combined with a lot of volume and growth of the market over the next 3 to 4 years or so, why would the target just be similar to what you would be earning this year, if you went for these headwinds?

我認為，同時，您所設定的座位日 4 年後的座位數要高於 8.5%。那麼隨著時間的推移，這些大宗商品和通膨低效問題的恢復前景如何。有類似的路徑嗎？如果是這樣的話，再加上未來 3 到 4 年左右市場的大量銷售和成長，如果你逆風而行，為什麼目標會與你今年的收入相似呢？

Yes. I think maybe just to take a step back. As I look out to 2024 and 2025, obviously, we've got to finish up this year. And there's a lot of work to do to deliver the guidance that we've outlined today.

是的。我想也許只是退後一步。當我展望 2024 年和 2025 年時，顯然我們必須在今年結束。要提供我們今天概述的指導，還有很多工作要做。

If you look at the high end of the guidance range, Seating is at 6.7% for this year. And as we communicated in the Seating Product Day, we have a line of sight on 8%-plus in 2025. A portion of that, as we outlined during that discussion, is driven by volume and backlog, about 60 basis points, similar amount on performance. And that performance, Emmanuel, includes clawing back -- continue to claw back some of the wage inflation that we've absorbed some of the commodity costs that we've absorbed. A portion of it is attributed to that.

如果您查看指導範圍的高端，您會發現今年的座位數為 6.7%。正如我們在座椅產品日所傳達的那樣，我們的目標是 2025 年增長 8% 以上。正如我們在討論中概述的那樣，其中一部分是由數量和積壓推動的，大約 60 個基點，類似數量關於性能。伊曼紐爾，這種表現包括收回——繼續收回我們已經吸收的一些大宗商品成本造成的工資上漲。一部分歸因於此。

And then the balance of that is really just executing on our restructuring plans and other improvement plans that we have in place operationally on components that we buy, GAV or cost technology optimization, cost reduction activities that we do year in and year out.

然後，這實際上只是執行我們的重組計劃和其他改進計劃，這些計劃是我們在購買的組件上實施的，GAV 或成本技術優化，我們年復一年進行的成本降低活動。

And then the last piece of that margin improvement is 20 basis points that we attributed to improvements in the Thermal Comfort Systems business. which is going to come through a combination of in-sourcing business to ourselves that's currently purchased on the outside. New business growth in that segment. The restructuring benefit of shifting work from higher cost Eastern European plants to North Africa, which we're in the middle of doing right now.

最後一個利潤率改善是 20 個基點，我們將其歸因於熱舒適系統業務的改善。這將透過我們自己的內包業務和目前從外部購買的業務相結合來實現。該領域的新業務成長。將工作從成本較高的東歐工廠轉移到北非的重組好處，我們現在正在進行中。

And then other synergies, as we fully combined the Kongsberg and IGB organizations. So there's a pretty clear line of sight to that 20 basis points as well.

然後是其他協同效應，因為我們將 Kongsberg 和 IGB 組織完全合併。因此，20 個基點的目標也非常清楚。

So as I think about this year to next year, it's not necessarily linear from 6.7% to 8% in 2025, but I would expect to see a step up in a step towards achieving that medium-term target of 8% in Seating. And I misquote, the 6.7% of the midpoint of the guidance range, not -- 6.9% is the high end of the guidance range, just to clarify that.

因此，從今年到明年，我認為從 6.7% 到 2025 年的 8% 不一定是線性的，但我預計座位數會朝著實現 8% 的中期目標邁出一步。我錯誤地引用了指導範圍中點的 6.7%，而不是——6.9% 是指導範圍的高端，只是為了澄清這一點。

Our next question will come from Dan Levy with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

I wanted to start first just with a question on EV broadly. We've seen, I guess, some commentary from -- on pullback in spend, slower ramps from Ford and GM, just in a variety of areas on the EV front. You've talked about Ultium in the past, and that seems to be -- there seems to be some signs that that's going a little more slowly.

我想先問一個關於電動車的廣泛問題。我想，我們已經看到了一些評論——關於支出的縮減、福特和通用汽車在電動車領域各個領域的成長放緩。您過去曾談到過 Ultium，而且似乎有一些跡象表明這進展得有點慢。

Bolt is being included now in their targets when that was just supposed to be discontinued. So to what extent does this maybe slow down in the pace of EV from some of your customers impact you?

博爾特現在被納入他們的目標，而這原本應該停止。那麼，您的一些客戶的電動車步伐放緩可能會在多大程度上影響您呢？

Well, a couple of things. One, we have really strong relationships with our customers and committed longer-term contracts with some of these awards. And I think it's important to note that if there are changes or shifts that we work in a very collaborative way with our customers on any type of changes to their current strategies.

嗯，有幾件事。第一，我們與客戶有著非常牢固的關係，並與其中一些獎項簽訂了長期合約。我認為重要的是要注意，如果發生變化或轉變，我們會與客戶以非常協作的方式對他們當前的策略進行任何類型的改變。

And so I'm confident if there are shifts or changes within volume or ramp-up or product lines, that we've been able to work with our customers to really balance those type of expectations out in regards to revenue. And so there have been changes. We've been very selective and very specific on what customers were quoting and how we're positioning our own business for a longer-term success like the battery disconnect unit or the ICBs, where we can scale them across multiple platforms, multiple car lines and multiple solutions.

因此，我相信，如果銷售量、產能成長或產品線發生變化或變化，我們能夠與客戶合作，真正平衡這些類型的收入預期。所以發生了變化。我們對客戶的報價以及我們如何定位自己的業務以獲得長期成功非常有選擇性和非常具體，例如電池斷開單元或 ICB，我們可以在多個平台、多個汽車系列中擴展它們以及多種解決方案。

And so we continue to work with our customers as they work through their own strategies, but I would say that it starts with a very good relationship with our customers and understanding where they're going longer term.

因此，當客戶制定自己的策略時，我們將繼續與他們合作，但我想說，這始於與客戶建立良好的關係並了解他們的長期發展方向。

Yes. The only thing I would add, Dan, is that we are being very cautious with our investments in capitalizing these facilities for the ramp-up. And just building on Ray's comments, I think the collaboration and communication with customers is essential here, and that's what we've been focused on being clear with them on our expectations and then being cautious on putting that new capital in place.

是的。丹，我唯一要補充的是，我們對利用這些設施進行產能擴張的投資非常謹慎。基於雷的評論，我認為與客戶的合作和溝通在這裡至關重要，這就是我們一直致力於向他們明確我們的期望，然後謹慎地投入新資本的原因。

So we're confident that the volume will materialize and having a backstop of a commercial discussion with them once we put the capacity in place if the volumes don't materialize, we have seen a bit of an impact on revenue this year from the ramp-up of the battery electric truck platform.

因此，我們有信心銷量將會實現，一旦我們將產能到位，我們就會與他們進行商業討論，如果產量沒有實現，我們已經看到了今年產量的增加對收入產生了一些影響電池電動卡車平台的特寫。

It wasn't meaningful in the backlog, but the volumes are a little bit lower, as GM suggested on their earnings call, a little bit lower in the first half than we originally expected, a little bit lower in their projections for the second half as well.

這對積壓來說並沒有什麼意義，但是正如通用汽車在財報電話會議上所建議的那樣，數量有點低，上半年比我們最初預期的要低一些，下半年的預測也有點低以及。

So there's been a modest impact, but not significant at this point. I think as we start playing for '24 and '25, we'll be spending a lot of time with customers, making sure that we're aligned on the capacity we put in place so that it mirrors what they intend to produce.

因此，影響不大，但目前還不顯著。我認為，當我們開始為「24」和「25」打球時，我們將花大量時間與客戶打交道，確保我們與我們投入的產能保持一致，從而反映他們打算生產的產品。

That's helpful commentary. And as a follow-up, you provided some encouraging commentary on the E-Systems backlog and winning a lot of awards. Sometimes what we see with some suppliers that an inflecting backlog can maybe limit the ability to achieve commercial recoveries. And right now, obviously, you have a significant path of commercial recoveries ahead on E-Systems. So what steps are you taking to make sure that as you do your backlog push, you can also get your commercial recoveries fully intact?

這是很有幫助的評論。作為後續行動，您對電子系統積壓工作提供了一些令人鼓舞的評論，並贏得了許多獎項。有時，我們在一些供應商身上看到，積壓的變化可能會限制實現商業復甦的能力。顯然，現在 E-Systems 面臨著商業復甦的重要道路。那麼，您正在採取哪些步驟來確保在推動積壓訂單的同時，您也可以完整地獲得商業回收？

Well, I'll tell you, I'm encouraged by the way the customers are working with us. And we typically separated backlog growth. We're not, in any respect, buying business for the ability to offset a commercial claim today. We need to get recovery.

好吧，我告訴你，客戶與我們合作的方式讓我深受鼓舞。我們通常將積壓的成長分開。無論如何，我們購買業務並不是為了能夠抵消當今的商業索賠。我們需要康復。

And I'm absolutely confident that working with our customers, we will get a fair settlement. And so we tend to separate those issues relative to growth. I think the last 3 years is kind of indicative and represents the relationships, the good relationships we have with our customers.

我絕對有信心與我們的客戶合作，我們將得到公平的解決方案。因此，我們傾向於將這些問題與成長分開。我認為過去三年具有代表性，代表了我們與客戶之間的良好關係。

We've been challenged now with chip situations and inflationary costs and labor cost increases, transportation costs, et cetera. And next year, and even the business we've been rolling on in Seating, has been accretive to our margins. And I think representative of our ability to negotiate in a fair way, get a reasonable settlement that's fair for Lear Corporation. -- and still be able to win new business. Next year will be the largest growth -- revenue growth in a single year at Lear Corporation. And so we've been able to manage those commercial negotiations and continue to win healthy business that we get at an expected return for Lear Corporation.

我們現在面臨著晶片狀況、通貨膨脹成本、勞動成本增加、運輸成本等等的挑戰。明年，甚至我們一直在進行的座椅業務也增加了我們的利潤。我認為這代表了我們以公平方式進行談判的能力，獲得對李爾公司公平的合理解決方案。 ——並且仍然能夠贏得新業務。明年將是李爾公司單年營收成長最快的一年。因此，我們能夠管理這些商業談判，並繼續贏得健康的業務，並為李爾帶來預期回報。

So it doesn't go without challenges, but I do think the customers are much more open and willing to negotiate these things than they have in the past. I think initially, it was probably more transitory in some respects, but now we're really working on fixed contracts and selling issues that are more sticky or longer term and bucketing those separately.

因此，這並非沒有挑戰，但我確實認為客戶比過去更加開放並且願意就這些事情進行談判。我認為最初，它在某些方面可能更為短暫，但現在我們真正致力於固定合約和銷售更具黏性或長期的問題，並將這些問題分開處理。

So we'll continue to work with our customers. We have great relationships with our customers. We solve problems for them. And if you do that and continue to deliver at the best possible quality and expectations, they're going to work with you.

因此，我們將繼續與客戶合作。我們與客戶有著良好的關係。我們為他們解決問題。如果您這樣做並繼續以盡可能最好的品質和期望交付，他們將與您合作。

The next question will come from Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將由富國銀行的科林·蘭根提出。

Just a follow-up on the $350 million. I think you said in the midpoint of your sales guidance, how should we think about if there is no strike in an optimistic scenario? I mean what is sort of the decrementals on those sales that are embedded in guidance as well? Is that sort of the normal high teens decremental on those lost sales? Or is it maybe a bit worse because of maybe delayed recoveries or anything? And is that embedded in the guidance?

只是 3.5 億美元的後續行動。我想你在銷售指導的中途說過，如果樂觀的情況下沒有罷工，我們該如何思考？我的意思是，指導中包含的那些銷售量的減少是怎樣的？這種正常的高青少年會減少銷售損失嗎？還是因為恢復延遲或其他什麼原因，情況可能會更糟？這是否包含在指南中？

Yes. I think it depends on which customers impacted in the level of vertical integration and underlying profitability on those platforms. We did see a little bit higher decremental margins during the GM strike in 2019 because that business in Seating, in particular, was the most vertically integrated of all the customers that we have.

是的。我認為這取決於哪些客戶對這些平台的垂直整合程度和潛在獲利能力產生了影響。在 2019 年通用汽車罷工期間，我們確實看到利潤率下降了一點，因為座椅業務尤其是我們擁有的所有客戶中垂直整合程度最高的。

It's a little less so with Ford and Stellantis. So it depends on the customer that's impacted. And just to give you kind of some frame of reference, each week of downtime, if all three customers were to go down, it's about $140 million of revenue. We'd expect that to convert around 25%, give or take. It could be a little bit higher, a little bit lower depending on the mix of programs and customers that are impacted.

福特和 Stellantis 的情況就稍微少一點。因此，這取決於受影響的客戶。只是為了給您一些參考框架，每週的停機時間，如果所有三個客戶都出現故障，則收入約為 1.4 億美元。我們預計轉換率約為 25%，無論多少。它可能會更高一點，也可能更低一點，具體取決於受影響的計劃和客戶的組合。

And what is embedded in the guidance now around the 25% on the lost sales?

現在關於銷售損失 25% 左右的指導意見中包含了什麼內容？

Yes. So if you do the math on the high end of the midpoint, we have embedded a little bit less than 20% on the downside conversion. So we've got both Karl and Frank's teams have the playbook outlined on what we will do if a strike takes place.

是的。因此，如果您對中點的高端進行數學計算，您會發現我們嵌入了略低於 20% 的下行轉換。因此，卡爾和弗蘭克的團隊都制定了戰術手冊，概述了發生罷工時我們將採取的行動。

There are things that we can control on discretionary spending, certainly some customer negotiations or discussions. And so -- but we believe between the actions that we'll take and the impact of the lost variable margin on the lower volume would net into that sort of 20% range. That's the target that we're working towards.

我們可以控制可自由支配支出的一些事情，當然還有一些客戶談判或討論。所以，但我們相信，我們將採取的行動以及可變利潤損失對銷售下降的影響將達到 20% 的範圍。這就是我們正在努力實現的目標。

Got it. And if I look at the first half to second half walk, particularly in Seating, it implies a pretty large underperformance. I mean -- so I think the market, if you're thinking 4 is maybe down 2 first half, second half-ish and your Seating would be down around 8. Why would you expect such a big underperformance because you've been growing above market in the second -- into the second half?

知道了。如果我看一下上半場到下半場的表現，特別是在座位方面，這意味著表現相當差。我的意思是——所以我認為市場，如果你認為上半場、下半場可能會下降4 個席位，而你的座位數會下降到8 個左右。為什麼你會期望表現如此之差，因為你一直在成長上述第二個市場－進入下半年？

Yes. So maybe if I could just give you some of the assumptions by region and help explain it. But we have assumed that there would be about a 20% reduction in the Q1 platform. platform from the first half to second half. There was downtime associated with the normal kind of summer shutdown in those facilities when you have the strike impact assumed in those facilities.

是的。因此，也許我可以按地區向您提供一些假設並幫助解釋。但我們假設 Q1 平台會減少 20% 左右。從上半場到下半場的平台。當這些設施受到罷工影響時，這些設施會出現與正常夏季關閉相關的停機時間。

And then we've assumed slightly lower volumes on a weekly basis in the tail end of the year compared to what they ran in the first part of the year. That's probably the biggest driver. In Europe, we do assume that there's a bit of a slowdown in the strong growth we've seen from JLR on the Range Rover and the Defender programs, both are down north of 20%, again, partially driven by just normal seasonality.

然後，我們假設今年年底的每週交易量略低於今年上半年的交易量。這可能是最大的驅動力。在歐洲，我們確實假設捷豹路虎在路虎攬勝和衛士項目上看到的強勁增長略有放緩，兩者均下降了 20% 以上，部分原因是正常的季節性因素。

You have production downtime in August as those customers take their summer holidays. So it's partially a result of that, and a little bit of conservatism ultimately embedded in the forecast. We debated this for some time over the last couple of weeks, we updated our guidance in conjunction with our Seating Product Day on June 27, and we really made back call in mid-June.

由於這些客戶正在放暑假，您在 8 月會出現生產停工。因此，這在一定程度上是其結果，並且最終在預測中包含了一點保守主義。在過去的幾周里，我們對此爭論了一段時間，我們結合 6 月 27 日的座椅產品日更新了我們的指導意見，並在 6 月中旬再次進行了回訪。

And I think conditions really have improved over the last 45 days. And if we were to have set our guidance assumption in conjunction with the earnings call, as opposed to the Seating Product Day, probably it would have been a little bit higher. And that's why we spent so much time sort of articulating the assumptions in the guidance and what the high end would look like just to give investors and the analysts that are modeling this a sense of what could be possible in the second half of the year. It may look very different than what we've guided to at the midpoint.

我認為過去 45 天情況確實有所改善。如果我們在財報電話會議（而不是座椅產品日）的同時制定指導假設，那麼價格可能會更高一些。這就是為什麼我們花了這麼多時間來闡明指南中的假設以及高端會是什麼樣子，只是為了讓投資者和建模的分析師了解今年下半年可能發生的情況。它可能看起來與我們在中點指導的非常不同。

The final question will come from Itay Michaeli with Citi.

最後一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli 提出。

Just had two questions. One, I was hoping you could maybe just help us a little bit with the cadence of E-Systems margin in Q3 and Q4, just given the ramp of efficiencies.

只是有兩個問題。第一，考慮到效率的提高，我希望您可以在第三季和第四季的電子系統利潤率方面為我們提供一些幫助。

And then just secondly, just hoping you could go back just to the comments on the assumption for T1 production second half of the year. Can you just clarify of that assumption, how much of that ties to what you're assuming for potential strike?

其次，希望您能回到今年下半年 T1 生產假設的評論。您能否澄清一下這個假設，其中與您對潛在罷工的假設有多少關係？

Yes. So maybe start with the second part of that question first. So we've assumed effectively 2.5 weeks of strike for all GM, Stellantis and Ford business. That's what comprises the $350 million. So that's the portion of the volume reduction in that platform that you would attribute to the strike.

是的。因此，也許首先從該問題的第二部分開始。因此，我們實際上假設通用汽車、Stellantis 和福特的所有業務都將罷工 2.5 週。這就是 3.5 億美元的總金額。這就是該平台交易量減少的部分，您可以將其歸因於罷工。

In terms of the E-Systems margin ramp, it's -- there's a negative in the third quarter on the seasonality of lower volumes. And then that's partially offset by the traction we have on both the wire efficiency improvements in Mexico as well as our expected commercial negotiations.

就電子系統利潤率成長而言，第三季銷量下降的季節性因素帶來了負面影響。然後，這被我們對墨西哥電線效率改進以及我們預期的商業談判的關注所部分抵消。

So there's a -- we're not going to provide third quarter guidance at this point in time. There's a fairly wide range of outcomes there. I'd say kind of anywhere from flat to as high as 5%, depending on both those negotiations and the continued performance in our Mexico facilities. And then the fourth quarter would be a step-up from that to get to sort of that 5.4% to 5.8% range that we outlined for the second half overall.

因此，我們目前不會提供第三季的指導。那裡有相當廣泛的結果。我想說的是，從持平到高達 5% 不等，這取決於這些談判和我們墨西哥工廠的持續表現。然後第四季將是一個台階，達到我們為下半年總體概述的 5.4% 至 5.8% 的範圍。

Okay. Well, let's say that -- just assume that the Lear team is on the phone. And I just, again, want to thank everyone for their incredible hard work. It was a very good quarter. Everyone came together. As always, a great effort by great employees of Lear Corporation, and look forward to really the second half and what we're going to accomplish. So thank you for a great, great quarter, and thanks for your work going forward.

好的。好吧，假設李爾團隊正在打電話。我只是想再次感謝大家的辛勤工作。這是一個非常好的季度。大家都聚集在一起。像往常一樣，李爾公司的偉大員工付出了巨大的努力，並期待下半年以及我們將要取得的成就。感謝你們度過了一個非常非常好的季度，也感謝你們接下來的工作。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。