LCI Industries (LCII) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's conference, LCI Industries Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Bruno, and I will be operating your call today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到今天的會議，LCI Industries Q4 和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。我叫布魯諾，今天我將接聽您的電話。 （操作員說明）

I will now hand over to your host, CFO, Mr. Brian Hall. Please go ahead.

我現在將交給您的東道主，首席財務官 Brian Hall 先生。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the LCI Industries' fourth quarter and full year 2022 conference call. I am joined on the call today by Jason Lippert, President, CEO and Director.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 LCI Industries 的第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。今天，總裁、首席執行官兼董事傑森·利珀特 (Jason Lippert) 也加入了我的行列。

We will discuss the results for the quarter in just a moment. But first, I would like to inform you that certain statements made in today's conference call regarding LCI Industries and its operations may be considered forward-looking statements under the securities laws and involve a number of risks and uncertainties.

我們稍後將討論本季度的結果。但首先，我想通知您，根據證券法，今天電話會議中有關 LCI Industries 及其運營的某些陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述，並涉及許多風險和不確定性。

As a result, the company cautions you that there are a number of factors, many of which are beyond the company's control, which would cause actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed in our earnings release and in our Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC.

因此，公司提醒您，有許多因素（其中許多超出公司的控制範圍）會導致實際結果和事件與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果和事件存在重大差異。這些因素在我們的收益發布以及我們的 10-K 表格和提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他文件中進行了討論。

The company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made, except as required by law.

公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述以反映前瞻性陳述作出之日後發生的情況或事件的任何義務或承諾，法律要求的除外。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jason Lippert. Jason?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Jason Lippert。傑森？

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to LCI's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call.

謝謝，布賴恩，大家早上好，歡迎來到 LCI 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。

Our fiscal year 2022 marked another record year for LCI as we reached all-time high revenues while continuing to deliver strong margins. As we got to the back half of the year, our diversification strategy proved pivotal to our performance, helping to partially offset the impact of RV OEM production shutdowns enacted during the fourth quarter to normalize inventory levels across the country.

我們的 2022 財年標誌著 LCI 又創紀錄的一年，因為我們在繼續提供強勁利潤的同時達到了歷史最高收入。當我們進入今年下半年時，事實證明，我們的多元化戰略對我們的業績至關重要，有助於部分抵消第四季度為使全國庫存水平正常化而實施的 RV OEM 生產停工的影響。

Thanks to the agility and operational strength of our veteran leadership teams, we were able to make necessary changes quickly in order to adapt to the volatile operating environment. These results are a testament to our cultural strength and long-tenured leadership teams, which we believe have been and will continue to be the cornerstone of our long-term success.

得益於我們經驗豐富的領導團隊的敏捷性和運營實力，我們能夠迅速做出必要的改變，以適應多變的運營環境。這些結果證明了我們的文化實力和長期任職的領導團隊，我們相信這已經並將繼續成為我們長期成功的基石。

We closed 2022 with a record $5.2 billion in revenues, up 16% year-over-year. This growth was supported by solid performance in our RV and Adjacent Industries, driven by overall growth in the outdoor lifestyle and aggressive content expansion and innovation.

到 2022 年，我們的收入達到創紀錄的 52 億美元，同比增長 16%。這一增長得到了我們房車和鄰近行業穩健表現的支持，這得益於戶外生活方式的整體增長以及積極的內容擴張和創新。

We completed four acquisitions throughout the year, adding two very strong industry brands to our portfolio, including Way Interglobal and Girard Products. Net sales from acquisitions completed in 2021 and 2022 contributed approximately $219 million in 2022. These acquisitions bolstered our innovative portfolio, which we have leveraged to continue our trajectory of record content growth.

我們全年完成了四次收購，為我們的產品組合增加了兩個非常強大的行業品牌，包括 Way Interglobal 和 Girard Products。 2021 年和 2022 年完成的收購的淨銷售額在 2022 年貢獻了約 2.19 億美元。這些收購加強了我們的創新產品組合，我們利用這些產品組合繼續創紀錄的內容增長軌跡。

Looking at North American RV OEM, sales increased 17% during the year compared to 2021, reaching $2.8 billion despite lower production levels in the back half of 2022. Industry wholesale RV shipments for the year totaled roughly 490,000 units, and we expect some further softening in 2023 as demand continues to normalize and come off all-time highs. January and December were rightsizing months for the industry, as industry OEMs took a majority of these two months off to allow inventories if the dealers to rebalance.

從北美房車 OEM 來看，儘管 2022 年下半年產量有所下降，但與 2021 年相比，年內銷售額增長了 17%，達到 28 億美元。全年行業房車批發出貨量約為 490,000 輛，我們預計會進一步走軟到 2023 年，隨著需求繼續正常化並脫離歷史高位。 1 月和 12 月是該行業調整規模的月份，因為如果經銷商重新平衡，行業原始設備製造商將這兩個月的大部分時間休假以允許庫存。

In the interim, we are working closely with the OEMs to keep our capacity aligned with the changing production levels. Despite lower RV OEM production, we have quickly and diligently worked to adjust costs and capacity, leveraging operational improvements implemented in the past years, as well as making some cuts. Overall, we've cut $370 million of cost out of our structure since RV industry volumes started to decline during the second quarter of 2022. Thanks to the agility of our teams and focus on our diversification into other markets, we have been able to shift some of our manufacturing costs of these other areas of our business that are running pretty strong in order to achieve maximum leverage.

在此期間，我們正在與原始設備製造商密切合作，以使我們的產能與不斷變化的生產水平保持一致。儘管 RV OEM 產量較低，但我們已迅速努力調整成本和產能，利用過去幾年實施的運營改進，並進行了一些削減。總體而言，自 2022 年第二季度 RV 行業銷量開始下降以來，我們已經從我們的結構中削減了 3.7 億美元的成本。由於我們團隊的敏捷性和專注於我們進入其他市場的多元化，我們已經能夠轉移為了實現最大的槓桿作用，我們這些其他業務領域的一些製造成本運行得非常強勁。

I do want to emphasize that retail demand has slowed, but is stabilizing the levels that are still historically strong. Data like retail traffic and purchases from recent RV shows have proven to be a bright spot in an otherwise challenging macro environment, giving us confidence in the industry moving forward.

我確實想強調零售需求已經放緩，但正在穩定歷史上仍然強勁的水平。事實證明，在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中，零售流量和最近房車展的購買量等數據是一個亮點，讓我們對行業向前發展充滿信心。

Importantly, secular trends such as younger buyers as well as the growth and popularity and availability of peer-to-peer RV rentals continue to bring new consumers into our lifestyle. Outdoorsy and RVshare, two of the largest peer-to-peer rental companies, have recently said that U.S. campers have rented RVs for over 3 million collected nights on their platforms. Additionally, RVIA data revealed that 67 million North Americans are planning a trip in an RV this year, up from 58 million in 2022, with 50% of those surveyed RVers planning to buy a new RV, underscoring the long-term popularity of RVs and the outdoor lifestyle.

重要的是，年輕買家等長期趨勢以及點對點房車租賃的增長、普及和可用性繼續將新消費者帶入我們的生活方式。 Outdoorsy 和 RVshare 這兩家最大的點對點租賃公司最近表示，美國露營者在他們的平台上租用房車超過 300 萬個夜晚。此外，RVIA 數據顯示，今年有 6700 萬北美人計劃乘坐房車旅行，高於 2022 年的 5800 萬，其中 50% 的受訪房車計劃購買新房車，這凸顯了房車的長期流行和戶外生活方式。

Throughout the quarter, we saw heightened input cost, most notably through freight and materials. While it will take us some time to work through the raw material that carry these higher costs, we believe our customers are committed to help us work through these costs. In addition to several continuous improvement projects we have in the pipeline, we remain focused on driving cost out of our business through automation, as we have 10 new projects slated for implementation largely in the back half of 2023.

在整個季度中，我們看到投入成本增加，最顯著的是運費和材料。雖然我們需要一些時間來解決承擔這些更高成本的原材料，但我們相信我們的客戶會致力於幫助我們解決這些成本問題。除了我們正在進行的幾個持續改進項目外，我們仍然專注於通過自動化降低業務成本，因為我們有 10 個新項目計劃主要在 2023 年下半年實施。

Our team also achieved record content growth in both towable units and motorhomes. Content per towable RVs for the full year 2022 increased 45% from the prior year to $6,090 while content per motorhome RV in the full year 2022 increased 43% from the prior year to $4,099, all supported by a long-term focus on innovation and continued investment in R&D capabilities as well as our acquisition strategy.

我們的團隊還在牽引裝置和房車方面實現了創紀錄的內容增長。 2022 年全年每輛牽引式房車的內容比上年增長 45% 至 6,090 美元，而 2022 年全年每輛房車的內容比上年增長 43% 至 4,099 美元，所有這些都得到了對創新的長期關注的支持，並繼續對研發能力的投資以及我們的收購戰略。

Given the current RV production environment, our diversification strategy is paying dividends and is proving to be critical to driving sustainable growth across our business. In prior down cycles such as 2008 and 2001, our performance was substantially impacted due to majority of our revenues coming from RV. Today, our Aftermarket, Adjacent Markets, International Business make up 46% of our total net sales. In December and January, 64% of our sales came from our diversified markets. We have simply never been this diversified while in a down cycle. We believe our ongoing focus on diversification will further cement our leading position into the broader outdoor recreation markets to support consistent, profitable growth in the long term.

鑑於當前的 RV 生產環境，我們的多元化戰略正在帶來回報，並被證明對推動我們業務的可持續增長至關重要。在 2008 年和 2001 年等之前的衰退週期中，由於我們的大部分收入來自房車，我們的業績受到了重大影響。今天，我們的售後市場、鄰近市場、國際業務占我們總淨銷售額的 46%。在 12 月和 1 月，我們 64% 的銷售額來自多元化市場。在下行週期中，我們從未如此多元化。我們相信，我們對多元化的持續關注將進一步鞏固我們在更廣泛的戶外休閒市場的領先地位，以支持長期持續的盈利增長。

Revenues in the North American Aftermarket grew year-over-year, up 7% compared to 2021, largely impacted by a drop in revenues in the automotive aftermarket business. Coming off a strong year in 2022, we are thrilled to see a record number of RVs on the road. As more enthusiast take to their RVs, we believe we will see more repair and replacement [business], which should continue to drive our Aftermarket revenues.

北美售後市場的收入同比增長，與 2021 年相比增長 7%，這在很大程度上受到汽車售後市場業務收入下降的影響。 2022 年是強勁的一年，我們很高興看到公路上的房車數量創歷史新高。隨著越來越多的愛好者開始使用他們的房車，我們相信我們將看到更多的維修和更換 [業務]，這將繼續推動我們的售後市場收入。

To (inaudible) that point, Aftermarket parts revenues were up 65% in January. As we've said on many prior calls, there have been 2 million RVs added to the system in the past four years, so there will be a need for parts and services that we supply as many of these RVs are now coming to the repair and replacement cycle.

到（聽不清）這一點，售後零件收入在 1 月份增長了 65%。正如我們在之前的多次電話會議上所說，在過去四年中，系統中增加了 200 萬輛房車，因此需要我們提供的零件和服務，因為其中許多房車現在正在維修和更換週期。

As the purchasing of RVs decreased for the season, we are already seeing an increase in service at dealerships. In 2022, we had 1.2 million calls to our contact center for service and repair related activity. This trend should be nothing short of fantastic for the aftermarket products and services businesses that assist RV consumers with repair, replacement and upgrades.

隨著本季房車購買量的減少，我們已經看到經銷商的服務有所增加。 2022 年，我們的聯絡中心接到了 120 萬次服務和維修相關活動的電話。對於幫助 RV 消費者進行維修、更換和升級的售後市場產品和服務企業而言，這種趨勢簡直是太棒了。

With that being said, we will continue to invest in this part of our strategy as we steer our Aftermarket business towards $1 billion market. While our Aftermarket RV continues to grow, we are maintaining our emphasis on creating a best-in-class customer experience, as engaging and listening to our customers is central to our building long-term relationships and strengthening the Lippert brand with dealers and consumers alike.

話雖如此，隨著我們將售後市場業務推向 10 億美元的市場，我們將繼續投資於我們戰略的這一部分。在我們的售後市場房車持續增長的同時，我們仍將重點放在創造一流的客戶體驗上，因為吸引和傾聽客戶的意見對於我們與經銷商和消費者建立長期關係和加強 Lippert 品牌至關重要.

The Lippert Scouts program, which has grown substantially in membership in the past year, serves to provide valuable insights on our products and services, how customers use them, and most importantly, how we can drive improvements in product and services. Further, we held our second annual event for RVers across the U.S. called the Lippert Getaway during the last week of October in Pine Mountain, Georgia. It was a resounding success and consisted of five full days of learning, repairing and improving their RVs, as well as listening and fellowship amongst nearly 400 people.

Lippert Scouts 計劃的成員人數在過去一年中大幅增長，旨在為我們的產品和服務、客戶如何使用它們以及最重要的是，我們如何推動產品和服務的改進提供有價值的見解。此外，我們在 10 月的最後一周在佐治亞州派恩山舉辦了第二屆全美 RVers 年度活動，名為 Lippert Getaway。這是一個巨大的成功，包括整整五天的學習、修理和改進他們的房車，以及近 400 人的聆聽和交流。

We will continue to stay focused on developing relationships with the end consumer to help drive our business and more successful results.

我們將繼續專注於發展與最終消費者的關係，以幫助推動我們的業務發展並取得更成功的成果。

Turning to the North American Adjacent Markets, 2022 revenues rose 26%, driven by demand in Marine along with solid content growth throughout the other adjacent businesses like bus, specialty vehicles and powersports vehicles. Our adjacent offerings benefit from the same secular tailwinds driving growth across the RV in aftermarket.

談到北美相鄰市場，2022 年的收入增長了 26%，這得益於海運需求以及其他相鄰業務（如公共汽車、特種車輛和動力跑車）的穩定內容增長。我們的相鄰產品受益於相同的長期順風，推動了 RV 在售後市場的增長。

Unlike RV OEMs, Marine production has been relatively stable, producing pressure as RV demand softens. In Marine, we experienced substantially fewer challenges related to macro conditions, as the overall market didn't ramp up as hard and as fast, and thus did not create as much excess inventory as the RV business did.

與房車原始設備製造商不同，船舶生產一直相對穩定，隨著房車需求疲軟而產生壓力。在海洋方面，我們經歷的與宏觀條件相關的挑戰要少得多，因為整體市場沒有像 RV 業務那樣猛烈和快速地增長，因此沒有產生那麼多的過剩庫存。

Like RV, we are continuing our focus on consumer groups and aftermarket related activity. We also saw the launch of our seating division for TRACKER Marine earlier this year in Missouri. We believe our developing relationship here will provide additional opportunity now that we are located near and supplying the largest pontoon and boat builder in the country.

與 RV 一樣，我們繼續關註消費者群體和售後市場相關活動。今年早些時候，我們還在密蘇里州成立了 TRACKER Marine 座椅部門。我們相信我們在這裡發展的關係將提供更多的機會，因為我們靠近並為該國最大的浮橋和船隻製造商提供服務。

Our Marine revenues for 2022 have increased to $493 million and we're anticipating a flatter year-on-demand, which we believe we will improve through organic growth and market share gains. Our Marine production facilities have never been operating at the peak levels they are today and we expect their solid performance to continue as we continue to supply the high demand and offer many new products in this space.

我們 2022 年的海事收入已增至 4.93 億美元，我們預計按需年度將更加平穩，我們相信我們將通過有機增長和市場份額的增加來改善這一點。我們的海洋生產設施從來沒有像今天這樣的峰值水平運行，我們希望隨著我們繼續滿足高需求並在該領域提供許多新產品，它們的穩定表現將繼續下去。

As a part of our diversification strategy, we have also been gaining traction in manufactured housing. With the rising housing prices impacting people across the country, manufactured housing continues to be an alternative for some that might be priced out of traditional residential homes.

作為我們多元化戰略的一部分，我們在製造房屋方面也越來越受歡迎。隨著房價上漲影響到全國各地的人們，對於一些可能無法從傳統住宅中定價的人來說，預製房屋仍然是一種替代選擇。

Also, during the past few years, as residential window suppliers were plagued by demand and in turn created a long delay for builders, our team took advantage and started offering entry level vinyl windows at short lead times to residential builders. We're now starting to build a nice residential window lineup in a market that's over 3 billion annually in addressable market.

此外，在過去幾年中，由於住宅窗戶供應商受到需求的困擾，反過來又給建築商造成了長時間的延誤，我們的團隊利用了這一優勢，開始在較短的交貨時間內為住宅建築商提供入門級乙烯基窗戶。我們現在開始在一個每年超過 30 億的可尋址市場中建立一個不錯的住宅窗口陣容。

And one other positive note around diversification is that we announced a key partnership last week with ATW, which is now owned by Bain Capital and is the largest utility trailer builder in the country. We launched a collaborative partnership to start supplying them axles to all of their trailer starting this month. We are extremely excited and our team will strive to bring new products as well as incredible dealer and OEM services that they never [seen before].

關於多元化的另一個積極消息是，我們上周宣布與 ATW 建立重要合作夥伴關係，後者現在歸貝恩資本所有，是該國最大的公用事業拖車製造商。我們啟動了合作夥伴關係，從本月開始為他們的所有拖車供應車軸。我們非常興奮，我們的團隊將努力帶來新產品以及他們從未見過的令人難以置信的經銷商和 OEM 服務。

We believe our adjacent market and expansion is key to our diversification efforts and our team continues to gain more and more momentum finding new products for the customers in these markets.

我們相信我們鄰近的市場和擴張是我們多元化努力的關鍵，我們的團隊繼續獲得越來越多的動力，為這些市場的客戶尋找新產品。

Looking globally, our International Businesses also experienced growth in 2022 with revenues increasing 6% year-over-year, proving to be a stabilizing force in our diversification strategy. Growth in our International Businesses was driven by the ongoing introduction of innovative products into EU markets and we are encouraged by the backlog in these businesses as we head further into 2023.

放眼全球，我們的國際業務在 2022 年也實現了增長，收入同比增長 6%，證明是我們多元化戰略的穩定力量。不斷將創新產品引入歐盟市場推動了我們國際業務的增長，隨著我們進一步進入 2023 年，我們對這些業務的積壓感到鼓舞。

Issues stemming from global chip shortages are easing slightly, which we feel will lead to more growth in the European RV business in 2023. We expect some of this demand to start breaking loose in the second quarter as many OEMs are starting to see chassis shipments increase, so they can build more motor caravans. In addition, we continue to see great progress toward Lippert European components such as pop-top and acrylic windows that are already popular in Europe being adopted by the U.S. RV OEMs.

全球芯片短缺引發的問題正在略有緩解，我們認為這將導致歐洲房車業務在 2023 年實現更多增長。我們預計部分需求將在第二季度開始鬆動，因為許多原始設備製造商開始看到底盤出貨量增加，這樣他們就可以建造更多的機動大篷車。此外，我們繼續看到 Lippert 歐洲部件取得了巨大進展，例如已經在歐洲流行的彈出式車窗和亞克力車窗被美國 RV 原始設備製造商採用。

These opportunities could provide big competitive barriers for our competition, because of the ability to utilize European designs, proven products and production facilities. While the last couple of years have been challenging for the European division, we are optimistic about 2023 being a year in which they are contributing to the overall company in the much more meaningful way.

由於能夠利用歐洲設計、經過驗證的產品和生產設施，這些機會可能會為我們的競爭提供巨大的競爭壁壘。雖然過去幾年對歐洲部門來說充滿挑戰，但我們樂觀地認為 2023 年將是他們以更有意義的方式為整個公司做出貢獻的一年。

Turning our focus to innovation. Throughout 2022, we had one of our largest product launch years in company history, and this should help bolster a challenging 2023 [year]. With about 150 people dedicated to innovation and product development in our business, we are committed to making innovation a huge competitive advantage as few peers and competitors who invest this kind of money into innovation.

將我們的重點轉向創新。整個 2022 年，我們經歷了公司歷史上最大的產品發布年之一，這應該有助於加強充滿挑戰的 2023 [年]。我們擁有約 150 名致力於創新和產品開發的員工，我們致力於讓創新成為巨大的競爭優勢，因為很少有同行和競爭對手將這種資金投入創新。

Our ABS brakes for our suspension systems, Tire Linc tire pressure management systems, continued development of Onecontrol and new window, awning, appliance and door designs have all getting tremendous traction with OEMs, helping to solidify our reputation as a company that continues to refine and innovate our core products.

我們用於懸架系統的 ABS 制動器、Tire Linc 輪胎壓力管理系統、Onecontrol 的持續開發以及新的窗戶、遮陽篷、電器和門設計都在 OEM 中獲得了巨大的吸引力，有助於鞏固我們作為一家不斷改進和完善的公司的聲譽創新我們的核心產品。

As mentioned earlier, we are thrilled about the acquisition of Girard and Way Interglobal, both add substantial products to our offering that connects our appetite for cutting edge products with our desire to bring increased utility and aesthetics to each RV. These two acquisitions also make us the largest and most diverse appliance and awning maker in the entire RV industry.

如前所述，我們對收購 Girard 和 Way Interglobal 感到非常興奮，這兩家公司都為我們的產品添加了大量產品，將我們對尖端產品的需求與我們希望為每輛房車帶來更高實用性和美觀性的願望聯繫起來。這兩項收購也使我們成為整個房車行業中最大、最多樣化的電器和遮陽篷製造商。

One of the other things we are proud of our own innovation is that we made several of our new products the new standard. The stand out in that category was our instant hot water heater design taking the place of the older, larger, tank water heaters that have been around and standard for decades.

我們為自己的創新感到自豪的另一件事是，我們使我們的幾個新產品成為新標準。在該類別中脫穎而出的是我們的即熱式熱水器設計取代了幾十年來一直存在並成為標準的舊式、大型罐式熱水器。

With respect to capital allocation, we continue to do our part maintaining a balanced deployment strategy. We remain receptive to strategic M&A opportunities when they appear, but are also focused on maintaining ample liquidity and a strong balance sheet with modest leverage.

在資本配置方面，我們繼續儘自己的一份力量來維持平衡的部署策略。當戰略併購機會出現時，我們仍然樂於接受，但也專注於保持充裕的流動性和穩健的資產負債表以及適度的槓桿率。

We have also continued to make strategic internal investments, specifically in automation, to add further flexibility to our cost structure. In 2022, we allocated over $70 million to growth and automation CapEx and we anticipate allocating even more dollars to these important projects in 2023.

我們還繼續進行戰略性內部投資，特別是在自動化方面，以進一步提高成本結構的靈活性。 2022 年，我們為增長和自動化資本支出分配了超過 7000 萬美元，我們預計在 2023 年為這些重要項目分配更多資金。

I'll now move on to our cultural highlights for the year. Here at Lippert, a well-rounded culture is our core focus, fostering an environment that values all team members and enables each team member to grow. We believe the strong culture starts with experienced leaders at the top, but also creates opportunities for all team members to become leaders in their own role.

我現在將繼續談談我們今年的文化亮點。在 Lippert，全面發展的文化是我們的核心重點，營造一種重視所有團隊成員並使每個團隊成員都能成長的環境。我們相信，強大的文化始於高層經驗豐富的領導者，但也為所有團隊成員創造機會，讓他們成為自己角色的領導者。

To this end, we have a group of leadership coaches that is tasked with creating and executing programs focused on developing and training leaders throughout the front lines of our manufacturing business. This group of 30 individuals are focused on coaching team members across the business in personal and professional leadership development, getting all team members the power to make LCI a better place and impact team members around them more positively.

為此，我們擁有一組領導力教練，其任務是創建和執行專注於在我們製造業務的前線培養和培訓領導者的計劃。這個由 30 人組成的小組專注於在個人和專業領導力發展方面指導整個企業的團隊成員，讓所有團隊成員都有能力使 LCI 成為一個更好的地方，並更積極地影響他們周圍的團隊成員。

In the end, we believe our great culture and focus, a real resource on leadership development, is the key to retaining people. We also believe that when people are retained over the long term, there is no question that quality, safety, efficiency and innovation, the key fundamentals of the business, all improve.

最後，我們相信我們偉大的文化和重點，領導力發展的真正資源，是留住人才的關鍵。我們還相信，如果長期留住人才，質量、安全、效率和創新這些業務的關鍵基礎無疑都會得到改善。

Our culture focus is not only on how we can support our team members, but also how we impact the communities around us. Over 2022, Lippert team members performed over 150,000 hours of community service through serving in various charitable organizations and mission work around the country. Over the last six years, our team members have collectively served over 700,000 hours of community service. We could not be prouder of this accomplishment in our team's effort to give back to those in need and look forward to our culture initiatives having even more of an impact of 2023.

我們的文化重點不僅在於我們如何支持我們的團隊成員，還在於我們如何影響我們周圍的社區。 2022 年以來，Lippert 團隊成員通過在全國各地的各種慈善組織和宣教工作中服務，進行了超過 150,000 小時的社區服務。在過去的六年裡，我們的團隊成員總共服務了超過 700,000 小時的社區服務。我們為團隊回饋有需要的人所取得的成就感到無比自豪，並期待我們的文化舉措在 2023 年產生更大的影響。

In closing, as always, I'd like to thank all of our team members for their hard work and commitment in driving our business forward, while upholding our company values and leading strong. We could not have achieved such amazing results without this incredible dedication coupled with the strength and guidance of our leadership team.

最後，我要一如既往地感謝我們所有的團隊成員，感謝他們為推動我們的業務向前發展所做的辛勤工作和承諾，同時堅持我們公司的價值觀並保持領先地位。如果沒有這種令人難以置信的奉獻精神以及我們領導團隊的力量和指導，我們不可能取得如此驚人的成績。

We look forward to continuing our progress in 2023. While we may not be setting volume records, we are dedicated to setting many other records such as safety, efficiency, continuous improvement and community impact records. We believe that we are in a great position even in the face of RV volume challenges to come out strong and [resolve], and excited to continue our efforts in delivering long-term value for our customers and shareholders.

我們期待在 2023 年繼續取得進展。雖然我們可能不會創造數量記錄，但我們致力於創造許多其他記錄，例如安全、效率、持續改進和社區影響記錄。我們相信，即使面對房車數量的挑戰，我們也處於有利地位，可以堅強地[下定決心]，並很高興繼續努力為我們的客戶和股東創造長期價值。

I will now turn to Brian Hall, our CFO, to discuss in more detail our fourth quarter and full year financial results.

我現在將請我們的首席財務官 Brian Hall 更詳細地討論我們的第四季度和全年財務業績。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

Our consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter decreased 26% to $894 million compared to the prior year period, impacted by a reduction in RV production, partially offset by growth in our other end markets.

與去年同期相比，我們第四季度的綜合淨銷售額下降 26% 至 8.94 億美元，這是受到房車產量減少的影響，但部分被我們其他終端市場的增長所抵消。

January sales were down 48% to $273 million versus January 2022 due to the continued decline in wholesale RV shipments, as we estimate the industry shipped less than 14,000 units in the month, many of which were produced in prior months. This was partially offset by continued diversification success with growth in Adjacent Industries, including Marine.

與 2022 年 1 月相比，1 月銷售額下降 48% 至 2.73 億美元，原因是房車批發出貨量持續下降，我們估計該行業 1 月出貨量不到 14,000 輛，其中許多是前幾個月生產的。這部分被包括海洋在內的鄰近行業的增長所帶來的持續多元化成功所抵消。

Q4 2022 sales to North American RV OEMs decreased 42% compared to the prior year period, driven by a decrease in wholesale shipments, partially offset by record content expansion in towables and motor homes.

2022 年第四季度北美房車原始設備製造商的銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 42%，原因是批發出貨量下降，部分被牽引車和房車的創紀錄內容擴張所抵消。

Content per towable RV unit increased 45% to a record $6,090, while content per motorized unit increased 43% to $4,099 compared to the prior year period. Towable content growth can be attributed to organic market share gains of 15%, while acquired revenues contributed 7% of the year-over-year growth.

與去年同期相比，每輛可牽引房車的內容增加了 45%，達到創紀錄的 6,090 美元，而每輛機動車的內容增加了 43%，達到 4,099 美元。可牽引內容的增長可歸因於 15% 的有機市場份額增長，而收購收入貢獻了 7% 的同比增長。

We saw a positive performance from our other end markets, which helped to partially mitigate the impact of softened RV demand. In the quarter, North American Marine sales increased 4% with our estimated content per powerboat increasing 19% to $1,712, driven by market share gains.

我們看到其他終端市場的積極表現，這有助於部分減輕房車需求疲軟的影響。本季度，受市場份額增長的推動，北美海運銷售額增長 4%，我們估計每艘摩托艇的內容增長 19% 至 1,712 美元。

Overall, sales to Adjacent Industries grew 3% versus the prior year period, supported by the aforementioned growth in Marine sales.

總體而言，在上述海運銷售額增長的支持下，鄰近行業的銷售額較上年同期增長 3%。

Q4 2022 sales to the Aftermarket decreased 17% compared to the prior year period, driven by a decline in automotive aftermarket sales, partially offset by strength in RV (technical difficulty) aftermarket sales.

2022 年第四季度售後市場銷售額較上年同期下降 17%，原因是汽車售後市場銷售額下降，部分被 RV（技術難度）售後市場銷售額的強勁所抵消。

International sales decreased 1% year-over-year, representing 10% of our total company revenue, as exchange rates negatively impacted results by approximately 9% due to the strength of the dollar compared to the euro and British pound. Excluding the exchange impact, organic growth would have been 8%, led by the strength seen in our rail markets.

國際銷售額同比下降 1%，占我們公司總收入的 10%，這是由於美元相對於歐元和英鎊走強，匯率對業績產生了約 9% 的負面影響。排除匯率影響，有機增長將達到 8%，這主要得益於我們鐵路市場的強勁表現。

Gross margins were 16.4% compared to 24.1% in the prior year period, driven down by one-time charges, production inefficiencies and elevated input costs in aluminum, steel and freight. Our one-time charges were a key contributing factor to margin compression and our EPS variance for this quarter. These one-time costs consisted of severance and inventory expenses, leading to a negative impact of $0.62 per share. Severance expense was incurred as we worked to improve our cost structure and remove redundancies within our operation.

毛利率為 16.4%，上年同期為 24.1%，原因是一次性收費、生產效率低下以及鋁、鋼和貨運的投入成本上升。我們的一次性費用是本季度利潤率壓縮和每股收益差異的一個關鍵因素。這些一次性成本包括遣散費和庫存費用，導致每股 0.62 美元的負面影響。由於我們努力改善成本結構並消除運營中的冗餘，因此產生了遣散費。

Our one-time inventory charges primarily related to the difference in price at which we purchase these commodities such as aluminum versus the selling price as well as adjustments for excess and obsolescence reserves. Typically, the pricing variance is accounted for by our quarterly lag pricing adjustments. However, given high volatility seen in the recent prices for some commodities, we incurred a one-time charge to earnings.

我們的一次性庫存費用主要與我們購買這些商品（例如鋁）的價格與售價之間的差異以及對超額和過時儲備的調整有關。通常，定價差異由我們的季度滯後定價調整來解釋。然而，鑑於近期某些商品價格的高波動性，我們對收益進行了一次性支出。

Although this write-off hindered near-term margins, we expect reduced margin pressure in the second half of 2023, as production ramps supporting profitability during the year. Looking ahead, we are prime to deliver profitability despite the macroeconomic conditions moving into 2023.

儘管這種註銷影響了近期利潤率，但我們預計 2023 年下半年利潤率壓力會有所減輕，因為產量增加會支持年內的盈利能力。展望未來，儘管宏觀經濟狀況進入 2023 年，我們仍準備好實現盈利。

SG&A costs as a percentage of sales increased year-over-year due to the one-time costs noted previously. Operating margins decreased compared to the prior year period, in line with expectations as we absorb fixed costs on a lower sales base and consuming the aforementioned (technical difficulty) cost inventory layers.

由於前面提到的一次性成本，SG&A 成本佔銷售額的百分比同比增加。與去年同期相比，營業利潤率有所下降，這符合預期，因為我們在較低的銷售基礎上吸收了固定成本，並消耗了上述（技術難度）成本庫存層。

GAAP net loss in Q4 2022 was $17.1 million or $0.68 per diluted share compared to net income of $82.3 million or $3.22 per share in Q4 2021. This decrease was a reflection of lower RV demand.

2022 年第四季度的 GAAP 淨虧損為 1710 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.68 美元，而 2021 年第四季度的淨收入為 8230 萬美元或每股 3.22 美元。這一減少反映了 RV 需求的下降。

EBITDA decreased 93% to $10.2 million in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year period.

與去年同期相比，第四季度 EBITDA 下降 93% 至 1020 萬美元。

Moving on to full year 2022 results. Sales to North American RV OEMs increased 17%, driven by increased interest in the outdoor lifestyle and content expansion. Sales to North American Adjacent Markets increased 26% to $1.2 billion in 2022. And North American Aftermarket increased its total sales by 7% to $825 million. While International sales increased 6% to $398 million compared to the prior year period. Acquired revenues were approximately $219 million for full year 2022.

繼續 2022 年全年業績。對北美房車原始設備製造商的銷售額增長了 17%，這主要得益於對戶外生活方式和內容擴展的興趣增加。到 2022 年，北美相鄰市場的銷售額增長了 26%，達到 12 億美元。北美售後市場的總銷售額增長了 7%，達到 8.25 億美元。與去年同期相比，國際銷售額增長 6% 至 3.98 億美元。 2022 年全年的收購收入約為 2.19 億美元。

Non-cash depreciation and amortization was $129.2 million for the 12 months ended December 31, 2022, while non-cash stock-based compensation expense was $23.7 million for the same period. We anticipate depreciation and amortization in the range of $130 million to $140 million during full year 2023, primarily due to amortization from recent acquisitions.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止的 12 個月，非現金折舊和攤銷費用為 1.292 億美元，而同期非現金股票補償費用為 2370 萬美元。我們預計 2023 年全年的折舊和攤銷將在 1.3 億美元至 1.4 億美元之間，這主要是由於最近收購的攤銷。

For the 12 months ended December 31, 2022, cash generated from operating activities was $603 million, with $131 million used for capital expenditures, $108 million used for business acquisitions and $127 million returned to shareholders through a $103 million of dividends and $24 million in share repurchases. Operating cash flows were positively impacted by increased earnings, and as inventories continue to normalize, we anticipate (technical difficulty) a reduction in the impact of working capital on cash generation.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止的 12 個月，經營活動產生的現金為 6.03 億美元，其中 1.31 億美元用於資本支出，1.08 億美元用於業務收購，1.27 億美元通過 1.03 億美元的股息和 2400 萬美元的股票返還給股東回購。營業現金流受到收益增加的積極影響，並且隨著庫存繼續正常化，我們預計（技術困難）營運資金對現金產生的影響會減少。

Driven by our strong operating cash flows, we further pursued our capital allocation strategy of deleveraging our balance sheet, making net payments of $178 million on outstanding borrowings during 2022. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had an outstanding net debt position of $1.1 billion or 1.5 times pro forma EBITDA adjusted to include LTM EBITDA of acquired businesses.

在我們強勁的經營現金流的推動下，我們進一步實施了資產負債表去槓桿化的資本配置策略，在 2022 年對未償還借款進行了 1.78 億美元的淨支付。截至第四季度末，我們的未償還淨債務頭寸為 1.1 美元億或 1.5 倍的預估 EBITDA 調整以包括收購業務的 LTM EBITDA。

As the greater macro environment remains uncertain, we are focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and continue to target a long-term leverage of 1.5x net debt to EBITDA. In the near term, we are working to integrate recently completed acquisitions, which we expect to positively impact our operating cash flows.

由於更大的宏觀環境仍然不確定，我們專注於維持強勁的資產負債表，並繼續將長期槓桿率目標定為 1.5 倍的淨債務與 EBITDA。在短期內，我們正在努力整合最近完成的收購，我們預計這將對我們的經營現金流產生積極影響。

Full year 2023 capital expenditures are anticipated in the range of $80 million to $100 million.

預計 2023 年全年資本支出在 8000 萬至 1 億美元之間。

Given the uncertainty in the marketplace, we anticipate RV production levels to remain volatile in the short term. As a result, we estimate the January consolidated sales results of down 48% to be indicative of full Q1 2023 results, as RV OEM production remain suppressed while the dealer base seeks the right inventory levels for expected demand.

鑑於市場的不確定性，我們預計 RV 生產水平在短期內將保持波動。因此，我們估計 1 月份的綜合銷售業績下降 48%，表明 2023 年第一季度的全部業績，因為房車原始設備製造商的生產仍然受到抑制，而經銷商基地正在為預期需求尋求合適的庫存水平。

The sales decline is primarily driven by the reduction in RV production as we anticipate Q1 2023 RV shipments between 45,000 and 50,000 units. Looking forward to Q2 and beyond, we are anticipating RV shipments to improve more in line with those experienced in the back half of 2019, which results in an estimated RV shipment range of 330,000 to 350,000 units for full year 2023.

銷售額下降的主要原因是房車產量減少，因為我們預計 2023 年第一季度房車出貨量將在 45,000 至 50,000 輛之間。展望第二季度及以後，我們預計房車出貨量的改善將與 2019 年下半年的情況更加一致，因此預計 2023 年全年房車出貨量將達到 330,000 至 350,000 輛。

While we have responded quickly to reduce our cost structure, material cost headwinds, as discussed in prior quarters, will continue to limit profitability through the first quarter, and we anticipate operating profit margins to return to mid- to high-single digits (technical difficulty) 2023.

儘管我們迅速做出反應以降低成本結構，但正如前幾個季度所討論的那樣，材料成本逆風將繼續限制整個第一季度的盈利能力，我們預計營業利潤率將恢復到中高個位數（技術難度) 2023 年。

That is the end of our prepared remarks. Operator, we're ready to take questions. Thank you.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。接線員，我們準備好接受提問了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research Group. Kathryn, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Thompson Research Group 的 Kathryn Thompson。凱瑟琳，您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions today. First, I'm going to focus on the OEM ramp up, and if you could give some cadence to that? And then, also just clarify that you're -- as you said in your prepared commentary, you're seeing some good strong demand for maintenance at RV dealers just for units that are already sold. Could you talk about what trends you've seen historically with maintenance versus sales? And is there a divergence in that trend that you're seeing in today's market that could be positive for the outlook?

你好。謝謝你今天回答我的問題。首先，我將專注於 OEM 的提升，你是否可以給它一些節奏？然後，還要澄清一下，正如您在準備好的評論中所說，您看到 RV 經銷商對已售出的設備的維護需求強勁。您能談談您在歷史上看到的維護與銷售趨勢是什麼嗎？你在今天的市場上看到的這種趨勢是否存在對前景有利的分歧？

Yes, I'll start, Kathryn. Regarding the ramp up or just where the industry is going from where we're at, obviously, we've been in ramp-down mode and just trying to get to a pace where the industry is -- where wholesale is being outpaced by retail. So, we've had a couple of hiccups here in November and December, but for the most part, it feels like the next couple of months will be retail outpacing wholesale hopefully longer than that by a pretty fair margin.

是的，我要開始了，凱瑟琳。關於增長或行業從我們現在所處的位置發展的方向，很明顯，我們一直處於下降模式，只是試圖達到行業的步伐——批發正在被零售超越.因此，我們在 11 月和 12 月遇到了一些小問題，但在大多數情況下，感覺未來幾個月零售將超過批發，希望比這更長時間。

Still getting -- still trying to find the bottom, I think, where we've got some customers that are taking weeks at a time down between now and into March, it feels like. We're kind of hoping after that in March-April timeframe things start to tick up. And certainly, all the retail outpacing wholesale that's going on today is just taking chunks out of dealer inventory, which is where we need to get to see some wholesale orders again.

仍然 - 仍然試圖找到底部，我認為，我們有一些客戶從現在到 3 月之間一次要花幾週的時間，感覺就像。我們有點希望在 3 月至 4 月的時間框架內事情開始好轉。當然，今天發生的所有零售超過批發只是從經銷商庫存中取出大塊，這是我們需要再次看到一些批發訂單的地方。

And on the aftermarket piece, I'd just say that we track all that activity by the minute. And January, just on parts orders from dealers, was up 65%, I think, as we said in prepared remarks. But that's dealers calling in, needing replacement parts and parts for service, and we just see that activity up significantly right now. And we know that trend will continue especially as they have more time to service units and more service base have come online over the last 12 months.

在售後市場，我只想說我們會按分鐘跟踪所有這些活動。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我認為 1 月份僅經銷商的零件訂單就增長了 65%。但那是經銷商打電話，需要更換零件和零件進行維修，我們現在看到這種活動顯著增加。而且我們知道這種趨勢將繼續下去，特別是因為他們有更多的時間來服務單位，並且在過去的 12 個月中有更多的服務基礎上線。

So, Brian, I don't know if you want to add to the aftermarket piece.

所以，布賴恩，我不知道你是否想加入售後市場。

I think maybe not so much on the aftermarket piece, but to give you some additional clarity around our expectations, I mean, obviously, Kathryn, there's a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace today. But as we said in our prepared remarks, we're expecting somewhere between 45,000 to 50,000 units for the first quarter. I mean, that's far off from when you think about Q1 of last year at 170,000-plus units. But as the OEMs hold production levels pretty -- well, hold them down or suppress here temporarily, as Jason said, to let the inventories deplete some, we would then expect that to start to come back up.

我認為售後市場可能沒有那麼多，但為了讓您更清楚地了解我們的期望，我的意思是，顯然，凱瑟琳，當今市場存在很多不確定性。但正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們預計第一季度的銷量在 45,000 到 50,000 之間。我的意思是，這與您考慮去年第一季度 170,000 多台的情況相去甚遠。但是，由於原始設備製造商保持生產水平相當好——好吧，正如傑森所說，暫時壓低或抑制它們，讓庫存消耗一些，然後我們預計它會開始回升。

And like we said, if you look more in line with 2019, from Q2 through Q4, you're certainly looking at 85,000 to 100,000 units a quarter is kind of what our current expectation is. I mean, we continue to hear a lot of positivity from a lot of the dealer base. There are retail sales occurring. So, at some point, as they continue to deplete inventory, there's going to have to be orders and production to follow suit and replenish inventories in the system.

就像我們說的那樣，如果你看起來更符合 2019 年，從第二季度到第四季度，你肯定會看到每季度 85,000 到 100,000 個單位，這是我們目前的預期。我的意思是，我們繼續從許多經銷商那裡聽到很多積極的信息。有零售銷售。因此，在某些時候，隨著他們繼續耗盡庫存，必須有訂單和生產來跟進並補充系統中的庫存。

As a follow-up to that, there's several larger retail shows that have occurred at the beginning of this year. Any color on trends from those? And what this could portends for the future?

作為後續行動，今年年初舉辦了幾場規模更大的零售展。這些趨勢有什麼顏色嗎？這對未來意味著什麼？

Yes. We've talked to a lot of OEMs and a lot of dealers over the last a handful of weeks that they've had big shows since Tampa in January. All the traffic commentary around retail traffic and purchases have been really healthy. And I think we're seeing that take out of inventories to rebalance dealer inventories, like Brian said. There's been a lot of positive remarks, dealers seeing inventories come down to healthy level where we can see -- they're going to have to buy for the summer selling season. They know it. And I think everybody's just positioned to get dealers in the best position they can before they -- before that starts to happen.

是的。在過去的幾周里，我們與許多原始設備製造商和經銷商進行了交談，他們自 1 月份坦帕以來就舉辦了大型演出。所有關於零售流量和購買的流量評論都非常健康。而且我認為我們正在看到減少庫存以重新平衡經銷商庫存，就像布賴恩所說的那樣。有很多積極的評論，經銷商看到庫存下降到我們可以看到的健康水平——他們將不得不為夏季銷售旺季購買。他們知道。而且我認為每個人都準備好讓經銷商在他們之前 - 在這種情況開始發生之前處於最佳位置。

But I think we're on the shows, all signs and commentary have been positive. Retails seems to have stabilized. I just look at how bad Q4 fell, it's 77,000 or 70,000 units, retail/wholesale roughly. If you annualize that, that's 300,000 units. That's a layup. So that's where we feel 330,000 to 350,000 is a good number. And for a down year, that's a -- it's a pretty damn good number. I think it's -- I think that's healthy, and we can adjust our cost to get into a good position with those -- with that type of volume. So -- but retail staying healthy is the most important thing we have looking for our industry right now and it's preparing to stay that way.

但我認為我們在節目中，所有跡象和評論都是積極的。零售似乎已經穩定下來。我只是看看第四季度的跌幅有多嚴重，大約是 77,000 或 70,000 台，零售/批發。如果你將其年化，那就是 300,000 個單位。那是上籃。所以我們認為 330,000 到 350,000 是一個不錯的數字。對於低迷的一年，這是一個非常好的數字。我認為這是 - 我認為這是健康的，我們可以調整我們的成本以進入一個良好的位置 - 具有這種類型的數量。所以 - 但零售保持健康是我們目前正在尋找我們行業的最重要的事情，並且它正準備保持這種狀態。

And then final question for the day. On inflation, you said in prepared remarks, freight and raws were up in Q4. But what we're seeing in other industries, wide variety of industries, definitely you're having certain costs, natural gas, but other labor including pulling back. How do you think about the balance of inflation or even deflation as you look out in 2023? Thank you.

然後是今天的最後一個問題。關於通貨膨脹，您在準備好的評論中說，第四季度運費和原材料上漲。但我們在其他行業看到的情況，各種各樣的行業，肯定有一定的成本，天然氣，但其他勞動力包括撤回。您如何看待 2023 年通貨膨脹甚至通貨緊縮的平衡？謝謝。

Yes. I mean, I'd start first with from a pricing perspective. To our customers, we've been saying throughout a lot of 2022, we've had some pretty meaningful price decreases, which I think is consistent with your commentary about what we're seeing in the marketplace for steel, aluminum, freight. We are seeing those costs come down from the all-time highs that we experienced these last couple of years. So, we've been given price decreases.

是的。我的意思是，我首先從定價的角度開始。對於我們的客戶，我們在整個 2022 年的大部分時間裡都在說，我們已經進行了一些非常有意義的降價，我認為這與您對我們在鋼鐵、鋁和貨運市場上看到的情況的評論是一致的。我們看到這些成本從我們過去幾年經歷的歷史高位下降。所以，我們得到了降價。

But from a consumption perspective for us and our income statement results, we've talked that we were -- we've been heavy on inventories. Some of those costing layers or some of the all-time high costs that we're consuming today, that certainly was a headwind for the fourth quarter. And as we, I think, communicated at the end of the third quarter, we expected that -- I expect that to continue into the first quarter. We certainly are starting to see improvement in our inventory layers. But with the little volume that we're seeing here in the first quarter, it's taken some time to do that. So -- but I do expect that to be -- I expect us to be through most of that through the first quarter, and as we get into the second quarter, we should start to get back on par with where I think we would expect us to.

但從我們的消費角度和我們的損益表結果來看，我們一直在談論我們 - 我們的庫存很重。我們今天消耗的一些成本層或一些歷史最高成本，這無疑是第四季度的逆風。正如我認為的那樣，我們在第三季度末進行了溝通，我們預計 - 我預計這種情況將持續到第一季度。我們當然開始看到庫存層的改善。但是由於我們在第一季度看到的數量很少，所以需要一些時間才能做到這一點。所以——但我確實希望——我希望我們能在第一季度完成大部分工作，當我們進入第二季度時，我們應該開始回到我認為我們預期的水平我們。

So, from a margin perspective, because that's the biggest needle mover, I would say, as Jason said, obviously, we've had to respond quickly and take a lot of costs out of the business and we'll continue to do whatever is necessary from a fixed and variable cost perspective, but materials is the biggest needle mover. And I expect that as we move through that and get back to some more normalized volumes in the second quarter and beyond in 2023, we should be back into more of a high-single digit type -- or mid- to high-single digit type margin view for operating income.

所以，從利潤的角度來看，因為這是最大的推動因素，我想說，正如傑森所說，顯然，我們必須迅速做出反應並從業務中減少大量成本，我們將繼續做任何事情從固定成本和可變成本的角度來看都是必要的，但材料是最大的推動因素。我預計，隨著我們度過難關並在 2023 年第二季度及以後恢復到一些更正常的交易量，我們應該回到更多的高個位數類型——或中高個位數類型營業收入的保證金視圖。

Our next question is from Scott Stember from ROTH MKM. Scott, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Scott Stember。斯科特，您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

Brian, from what you're saying about, I guess, the lag of getting that higher priced inventory through the channel and matching things up, it sounds like the first quarter could be challenged from a profit standpoint, or do you think it will be profitable in the first quarter?

布賴恩，從你所說的來看，我猜，通過渠道獲得價格較高的庫存並進行匹配的滯後，從利潤的角度來看，第一季度聽起來可能會受到挑戰，或者你認為會是一季度盈利？

I think that as we look at Q4 -- I'd contrast Q4 with Q1. Q4, you had the one-timers in there like we talked about $0.62 EPS impact. I'd say from a margin perspective, if you take those out, you're pretty darn close to breakeven for fourth quarter. I expect that given January's performance and we think that that's going to be a bit indicative of what the first quarter looks like, we'll see a little bit of ramp up here in February and a little bit more in March, but pretty consistent with the declines we saw throughout the fourth quarter. So, I think they're pretty similar from a quarter view perspective, once you take those one-time hits out of there.

我認為當我們看第四季度時——我會將第四季度與第一季度進行對比。第 4 季度，就像我們談到 0.62 美元的 EPS 影響一樣，你在那裡有一次性的。我想說，從保證金的角度來看，如果你把這些剔除掉，第四季度就非常接近收支平衡了。我預計，鑑於 1 月份的表現，我們認為這將在一定程度上表明第一季度的情況，我們將在 2 月份看到一些增長，3 月份增長更多，但與我們在整個第四季度看到的下降。所以，我認為從四分之一的角度來看它們非常相似，一旦你把那些一次性的點擊從那裡拿走。

So, I think it'll be close to breakeven and possibly at least we would target a little bit better than that. But then once volumes come back in the second quarter and we really chew through these inventory layers, which as I've been saying previously, those -- that's anywhere from 4 percentage points to 5 percentage points of margin headwind that we've been experiencing these last couple of quarters as we consume those layers of inventory.

所以，我認為它會接近收支平衡，而且至少我們的目標可能會比這好一點。但是，一旦第二季度銷量回升，我們就會真正消化掉這些庫存層，正如我之前所說的那樣，我們一直在經歷 4 到 5 個百分點的利潤逆風最近幾個季度，我們消耗了這些庫存層。

And then, back to the aftermarket. You talked about how the automotive side really drove the decline in the quarter. Can you maybe give a little bit more content on that? And the other side of the business, the RV, how did that perform in the quarter?

然後，回到售後市場。你談到了汽車方面是如何真正推動本季度的下滑的。您能否就此提供更多內容？而業務的另一面，房車，在本季度表現如何？

Yes. So, the RV business is exceeding expectations in terms of just volume. So, no problems there. And again, it's all service and repair parts related. I mean, there's some upgrade and just normal aftermarket business through all channels, consumer, e-tail, Amazon dealers and all the distributors that we do business with there. And we expect that to continue through this year.

是的。因此，房車業務在數量上超出了預期。所以，那裡沒有問題。再說一次，所有服務和維修零件都與此相關。我的意思是，通過所有渠道、消費者、電子零售、亞馬遜經銷商和我們與之有業務往來的所有分銷商，都有一些升級和正常的售後市場業務。我們預計這種情況將持續到今年。

On the automotive side, it's largely driven by new car sales. So, as everybody knows, there's just a glut of availability for new cars. There just isn't being -- trucks aren't being produced like they were three years ago. So, when new cars are down, new automobile sales are down and production is down and our hedge business is impacted by that. But we expect that to start slowly coming back.

在汽車方面，它主要受新車銷售的推動。因此，眾所周知，新車供過於求。只是沒有 - 卡車不像三年前那樣生產。因此，當新車銷量下降時，新車銷量下降，產量下降，我們的對沖業務就會受到影響。但我們預計這種情況會開始慢慢恢復。

And we've adjusted our business. We chased materials down all last year on steel, because steel is mostly the kind of content we have the current automotive side of our business. So, as all of the indexes adjust positively, we work through inventories, we'll see that positively impact margins through the whole course of this year.

我們已經調整了我們的業務。去年我們一直在追逐鋼鐵材料，因為鋼鐵主要是我們目前汽車業務方面的內容。因此，隨著所有指數的積極調整，我們通過庫存工作，我們將看到這對今年全年的利潤率產生積極影響。

And I'd add to that, Scott. If you look full year, we really started, I think, seeing the disconnect in the back half of 2022 between the automotive side and the RV Marine side of the business. But if you look full year, automotive was only -- it was off 3%, but the rest of the business was up 19%. So, you can certainly see there were -- there was a sharp contrast in the performance.

我還要補充一點，斯科特。如果你看全年，我認為我們真的開始看到 2022 年下半年汽車業務和 RV Marine 業務之間的脫節。但如果你看全年，汽車行業只有——下降了 3%，但其他業務增長了 19%。因此，您當然可以看到 - 性能形成鮮明對比。

When you look to the fourth quarter, as the automotive side began to slip more and more, it was off about 24%, almost 25% from the fourth quarter. So, you can see that, that's the side of the business which -- it was running about half and what we experienced in the back half of the year, it's now to less than half of our overall aftermarket business.

當你看第四季度時，隨著汽車方面開始越來越下滑，它下降了約 24%，比第四季度下降了近 25%。所以，你可以看到，這是業務的一面——它運行了大約一半，而我們在今年下半年所經歷的，現在還不到我們整體售後市場業務的一半。

Okay. And then, in the first quarter or at least in January, you talked about that 65% increase. That's just from, I guess, orders from dealers for parts, service parts, what is the overall aftermarket doing in -- the whole aftermarket doing in January?

好的。然後，在第一季度或至少在一月份，你談到了 65% 的增長。我猜這只是來自經銷商的零件、服務零件訂單，整個售後市場在 1 月份做了什麼？整個售後市場在做什麼？

Yes, I mean, for January, everything is still suppressed. I would tell you the automotive side did get slightly better. We started to see some orders come in there. So, instead of 24%, 25% off like it was in the fourth quarter, it was only off 17%. The RV Marine side of the business was better than that, but still down slightly in January.

是的，我的意思是，對於 1 月份，一切仍然受到壓制。我會告訴你汽車方面確實略有好轉。我們開始看到一些訂單進來了。因此，不是像第四季度那樣下降 24%、25%，而是僅下降 17%。 RV Marine 方面的業務好於此，但 1 月份仍略有下降。

I think that it's -- our expectation is on that side of the business, a lot of it, is our sales to wholesale distributors. Their orders are going to be a little bit spotty. So, we've seen from month to month some pretty meaningful variances when we're looking at how their orders are coming in, but at least it's not down as meaningful as what the automotive side is, and we expect that as we move through the winter months, and people get their units out for the season, that we'll start to see that continue to improve.

我認為這是——我們對業務的期望，其中很多是我們對批發分銷商的銷售。他們的訂單會有點參差不齊。因此，當我們查看他們的訂單如何進入時，我們每個月都會看到一些非常有意義的差異，但至少它不像汽車方面那樣有意義，我們預計隨著我們的進展冬天的幾個月，人們在這個季節拿出他們的單位，我們將開始看到它繼續改善。

So, when we get to the back half of the year, we're definitely anticipating all the aftermarket to be up -- start probably in the summer months at some single digit growth rates, but then be double digit -- back to double digits when we get towards the end of the year.

因此，當我們進入今年下半年時，我們肯定預計所有售後市場都會上升——可能在夏季開始時以個位數的增長率增長，但隨後會達到兩位數——回到兩位數當我們接近年底時。

And the two other things I'd add Scott is automotive is about half of the aftermarket business. So, it weights heavy when it weights one way or the other. And then, we've got the -- on the RV side, it's just -- there's all sorts of opportunities with service parts, but that's through largely retail and dealers and the big chunk of our aftermarket business on the RV side is wholesale distributors and they've got inventories to work through as well. So...

我要補充的另外兩件事斯科特是汽車約佔售後市場業務的一半。因此，當它以一種或另一種方式加權時，它的重量很重。然後，我們有——在 RV 方面，它只是——服務零件有各種各樣的機會，但這主要是通過零售和經銷商，我們在 RV 方面的售後市場業務的很大一部分是批發分銷商他們也有庫存要處理。所以...

Okay. Just last question on the aftermarket. There was a slight operating loss within aftermarket in the quarter. That was strictly related to the auto side? And it sounds like probably having to do with input costs as well?

好的。關於售後市場的最後一個問題。本季度售後市場出現輕微經營虧損。那是嚴格相關的汽車方面？聽起來可能也與投入成本有關？

Yes, you're correct. On both fronts, definitely as the -- at the volumes that we were experiencing on the automotive side and the seasonality, when you get into the fourth quarter and first quarter for automotive, it typically is extremely low margin. So, I would call that normally in the off season, low single digit type margin. So, to see that flip to a loss is not much of a surprise. And then, couple that with, like you just mentioned, consuming some of the high-cost steel layers in a lot of those hitch products, we've certainly seen -- very consistent with what we've seen across the entire business where it's quite a bit of a headwind through the back half of 2022 and into this first quarter or so of 2023.

是的，你是對的。在這兩個方面，絕對是——我們在汽車方面經歷的數量和季節性，當你進入汽車的第四季度和第一季度時，它通常是極低的利潤率。所以，我通常會在淡季稱之為低個位數類型的保證金。因此，看到出現虧損並不令人意外。然後，再加上，就像你剛才提到的，在許多掛鉤產品中消耗了一些高成本的鋼層，我們當然看到了——與我們在整個業務中看到的非常一致從 2022 年下半年到 2023 年第一季度左右，情況相當不利。

Our next question is from Fred Wightman from Wolfe Research. Fred, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。弗雷德，您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

Hey, guys. Good morning. I was hoping you could just give a comment on the timing of the model year changeover as we see this depressed production level extend farther and farther versus where people might have planned? Do you think that your customers are just going to move to model year '24 products when they resume production or is it going to be continued production at '23?

大家好。早上好。我希望您能就車型年轉換的時間發表評論，因為我們看到這種低迷的生產水平比人們可能計劃的範圍越來越遠？您是否認為您的客戶在恢復生產時只會轉向 24 年款產品，還是會在 23 年繼續生產？

I think there's a lot of talk around that. There's a lot of -- the biggest problem right now probably is just the 2022 model year. It was the largest produced model year in the history of RVs. And, obviously, volumes have been -- retail spend depleting since more or less July of last year. So, there's a lot of that product in the pipeline, but we've heard all sorts of stories over the last couple of months where the OEMs are doing what they need to do to blow that product out to the dealers and get it in the hands of the retail, so that it's just flushing through the system. On the other hand, the '23 is just -- there's not a lot of that product being built. So, I don't anticipate that's going to be a big issue.

我認為圍繞這一點有很多討論。有很多 - 現在最大的問題可能只是 2022 車型年。這是房車歷史上產量最大的車型年。而且，很明顯，自去年 7 月或多或少以來，零售支出一直在減少。所以，有很多這樣的產品正在籌備中，但在過去的幾個月裡我們聽到了各種各樣的故事，原始設備製造商正在做他們需要做的事情來把產品賣給經銷商並在市場上銷售。零售的手，所以它只是通過系統沖洗。另一方面，'23 只是 - 沒有很多產品正在製造中。所以，我預計這不會成為一個大問題。

Certainly, you'll have some of what you're talking about, but I think that the OEMs and dealers doing a really good job working together to -- they both have the same common issue here and both have to collaborate to figure it out. So, I think in the past, they've done a really good job of that when there's been that kind of a headwind, but they'll get through it.

當然，你會有一些你在談論的東西，但我認為原始設備製造商和經銷商在合作方面做得非常好——他們在這裡都有同樣的共同問題，而且都必須合作解決這個問題.所以，我認為過去，當出現這種逆風時，他們在這方面做得非常好，但他們會挺過去的。

Okay. And then, Brian, you gave us the total number for the one-time costs in the quarter. I think, you cited it as a $0.62 headwind. Can you just break that down between severance and then the inventory hit?

好的。然後，布賴恩，你給了我們本季度一次性成本的總數。我認為，您將其稱為 0.62 美元的不利因素。你能把它分解成遣散費和庫存下降之間的關係嗎？

I can, Fred. I got it right here. It's about the -- from an inventory perspective, there's a bulk of it, it's about $0.44. So, the remainder is the $0.19, which is severance.

我可以，弗雷德。我在這裡得到它。這是關於——從庫存的角度來看，有很多，大約是 0.44 美元。所以，剩下的就是 0.19 美元，也就是遣散費。

Our next question is from Craig Kennison from Baird. Craig, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Craig Kennison。克雷格，你的線路現在開通了。請繼續。

I wanted to follow-up on Fred's last question. Regarding your cost structure going forward, how should we think about SG&A in Q1 and on a go-forward basis following the actions you took in Q4?

我想跟進 Fred 的最後一個問題。關於您未來的成本結構，我們應該如何考慮第一季度的 SG&A 以及您在第四季度採取的行動之後的未來基礎？

, the -- so, I would say that we've continued to make adjustments to our cost structure. We really started having to make some bigger swings at it in November and December as we saw what production schedules look like. So, there's been additional adjustments that we'll continue to make as we right size and get better visibility into the coming months.

，所以，我會說我們繼續對我們的成本結構進行調整。在 11 月和 12 月，當我們看到製作時間表時，我們真的開始不得不做出更大的改變。因此，隨著我們調整規模並更好地了解未來幾個月，我們將繼續進行額外的調整。

I do think that, obviously, from a percentage of sales perspective here in the fourth quarter and first quarter to see our SG&A costs slightly elevated, it's certainly the expectation, and then resume or head back to the more normalized levels when we get the volume in the second quarter. So, I don't think it's going to vary too meaningfully, but we have taken some additional costs out of it.

我確實認為，顯然，從第四季度和第一季度的銷售額百分比來看，我們的 SG&A 成本略有上升，這當然是預期，然後在我們獲得銷量時恢復或回到更正常的水平在第二季度。所以，我認為它不會有太大的變化，但我們已經從中扣除了一些額外的成本。

And, obviously, from a compensation perspective, as you would weigh things more with where -- when the profits are actually incurred given the expectations we have for the first quarter, that will be a much lighter quarter from that perspective. So, I think it will come down some from the fourth quarter, but probably not in a major meaningful way.

而且，很明顯，從薪酬的角度來看，你會更多地權衡問題——當利潤實際產生時，考慮到我們對第一季度的預期，從這個角度來看，這將是一個更輕的季度。所以，我認為它會從第四季度開始下降一些，但可能不會以一種有意義的方式出現。

And then, Brian, I think I heard you make a few comments around your margin expectations for the full year, and then you commented on maybe a breakeven scenario for the first quarter. Could you just give us a sense of the cadence of margin, and where you expect the full year margin to be, at least what range might you expect that to be in?

然後，布賴恩，我想我聽到你對全年的利潤率預期發表了一些評論，然後你評論了第一季度可能出現盈虧平衡的情況。您能否讓我們了解一下利潤率的節奏，以及您預計全年利潤率在哪裡，至少您希望它在什麼範圍內？

Yes. I mean, I think that -- really 2021 is a good year for comparison. When I look at -- and I'd say little bit by chance, when you look at top-line expectations and then look at kind of the what type of margin we were running throughout 2021, our expectations will be that that's pretty similar when we have the volume. So, once you take first quarter out, which as I mentioned, we're expecting breakeven to a small slight profit there. Once you move past that and we get volumes resuming to more normalized levels, we would expect mid- to high-single digit type margins.

是的。我的意思是，我認為 2021 年真的是比較好的一年。當我看 - 我會說一點點偶然，當你看一下頂線期望然後看看我們在整個 2021 年運行的利潤率類型時，我們的期望是非常相似的時候我們有數量。所以，一旦你把第一季度拿出來，正如我提到的那樣，我們預計那裡會實現收支平衡並獲得微薄的利潤。一旦你超越了這一點，我們就會讓交易量恢復到更正常的水平，我們預計會有中高個位數類型的利潤率。

And I think that at least the way we're seeing unit production play out today, which there's a lot of uncertainty in that, Q2 would be, I would call it, 8% to 10% type margin, and then that improving throughout the remainder of the year with as volume increases. Fourth quarter normally would be a little seasonally different, but at least through the second and third quarter, which would be the meaningful quarters for the year, I would expect them to be in that range.

而且我認為至少我們今天看到單位生產的方式，其中有很多不確定性，第二季度，我稱之為 8% 到 10% 的類型利潤率，然後在整個過程中有所改善隨著銷量的增加，今年的剩餘時間。第四季度通常會有一些季節性差異，但至少到第二和第三季度，這將是一年中有意義的季度，我預計它們會在這個範圍內。

And our diversified businesses are really adding a huge lift to our profit improvement through the year. So, most of our businesses there are having really solid years, off to a good start and all those. So, the diversification is a big part of the story as well, Craig.

我們的多元化業務確實極大地推動了我們全年的利潤增長。因此，我們在那裡的大多數企業都經歷了非常穩固的歲月，有了一個良好的開端等等。因此，多元化也是故事的重要組成部分，克雷格。

Great. Thank you. And then on content per unit metric, you mentioned giving some price back as your cost changes. Just curious, is that figure is something that would go down sequentially? Or is there enough innovation and other drivers to that metrics such that you could see continued growth?

偉大的。謝謝。然後關於每單位含量指標，你提到隨著成本的變化而回饋一些價格。只是好奇，這個數字會依次下降嗎？或者是否有足夠的創新和其他驅動因素來推動該指標持續增長？

Yes, Craig, if you look at it -- if you were to go back and contrast the past few quarters on a year-over-year basis, you certainly saw that grow to all-time highs in the 50%-plus range. We're at 45% today. When you start to dig into the details of that, our organic growth rate is some of the highest I remember seeing in my tenure here. So, at 15%, acquisitions adding another 7%.

是的，克雷格，如果你看一下——如果你回顧過去幾個季度的同比情況，你肯定會看到它增長到 50% 以上的歷史高位。我們今天是 45%。當你開始深入了解其中的細節時，我們的有機增長率是我記得在這裡任期內看到的最高增長率之一。因此，在 15% 的情況下，收購又增加了 7%。

As you fast forward into the next quarter or two, I would expect those acquired revenues to probably not vary too much, and I think that we're going to -- we've won enough business and expect to continue gaining share during 2023 that I would expect that double-digit type organic growth rate for us to continue at least here in the near term, which is far greater than our historical 3% to 5% average.

當你快進到下一兩個季度時，我希望這些獲得的收入可能不會有太大變化，而且我認為我們將 - 我們已經贏得了足夠多的業務，並希望在 2023 年繼續獲得份額我預計我們的兩位數有機增長率至少在短期內會持續下去，這遠高於我們歷史上 3% 至 5% 的平均水平。

Now, if you look at the remainder of that, that's price. And as we've talked over the last couple of years to see the 35%-plus type inflationary numbers pushing through the system has certainly been the case. But that's retracted. If you look at the balance of it for the fourth quarter numbers that we saw, that's way down from where it was in the third quarter. And as you fast forward into the first and second quarter, I would expect that price number to continue to come down as we give those price -- the price adjustments back to our customers. To where that would be on a more normalized basis and you should be back by the first, second quarter to where you really just price is not a part of the picture and it's more about organic and acquired revenue growth.

現在，如果你看看剩下的部分，那就是價格。正如我們在過去幾年中談到的那樣，看到 35% 以上的通貨膨脹數字推動整個系統確實如此。但這被收回了。如果你看一下我們看到的第四季度數字的平衡，那比第三季度的水平要低得多。當你快進到第一季度和第二季度時，我預計價格數字會繼續下降，因為我們將這些價格 - 價格調整返回給我們的客戶。在更正常化的基礎上，你應該在第一、第二季度回到你真正只是定價的地方，而不是圖片的一部分，它更多的是關於有機和獲得的收入增長。

Our next question is from Mike Swartz from Truist. Mike, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Mike Swartz。邁克，你的線路現在開通了。請繼續。

Hey guys, good morning. Maybe to start. Just on the -- I think, Jason you called out the $370 million cost reduction program that was put in place in 2022, maybe give us a feel for how much of that was actually realized in 2022 and how much, I guess, the remainder we'll see in 2023?

嘿伙計們，早上好。也許開始。就在——我想，Jason，你提出了 2022 年實施的 3.7 億美元的成本削減計劃，也許讓我們了解其中有多少在 2022 年實際實現了，我想，剩下的有多少我們將在 2023 年看到？

Yes, I mean, I'll jump in there, Mike. I'd say we realized most of it. We've had to make as you've watched the RV industry production rates decline really ever since the first quarter of 2022, we've been taken cost out of the business ever since that point, whether it's labor or adjusting our fixed cost structure to the best of our abilities. So, I would say that's what's been realized at this point. We probably have a little bit more to go, but probably not meaningful enough until we really see what sales levels are going to be I think here in the short term. Like I mentioned earlier, we've taken some additional cost out in January based on changing forecast, but we're really looking forward to the second and third, fourth quarter as to what levels, the cost structure we need to target.

是的，我的意思是，我會跳進去，邁克。我想說我們實現了大部分。正如您所看到的，自 2022 年第一季度以來，房車行業的生產率確實下降，我們不得不這樣做，從那時起，我們就一直在削減業務成本，無論是勞動力成本還是調整我們的固定成本結構盡我們所能。所以，我想說這就是目前已經實現的。我們可能還有更多的工作要做，但在我們真正看到我認為短期內的銷售水平之前可能意義不大。就像我之前提到的，我們根據不斷變化的預測在 1 月份削減了一些額外成本，但我們真的很期待第二、第三、第四季度，我們需要達到什麼樣的水平，成本結構。

Yes, I think just to add to that, it's -- when you get into cost-cutting mode, you just keep going. So, there's things that we're looking at every single day, we're on cost cutting mode right now all over the business. And we're just trying to make sure that we're not cutting too deep, because we do feel that we're going to be to a 400,000 unit-ish run-rate towards the middle of the year. That's what we feel we're going to get back to. So, we don't want to cut so deep that we can't sustain higher levels of production once we see it. And then -- that's what I'd add there.

是的，我想補充一點，就是——當你進入削減成本模式時，你就繼續前進。所以，我們每天都在關註一些事情，我們現在在整個企業都處於削減成本的模式。我們只是想確保我們不會削減得太深，因為我們確實覺得我們將在今年年中達到 400,000 台左右的運行率。這就是我們覺得我們要回到的地方。因此，我們不想削減得如此之深以至於一旦我們看到它就無法維持更高水平的生產。然後——這就是我要添加的內容。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just on the Marine business, I think you made some comments that you think will be flattish in 2023. Is that including market share gains, or is that what you see just from industry production?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就海洋業務而言，我認為您發表了一些您認為在 2023 年將持平的評論。這包括市場份額的增長，還是您從工業生產中看到的？

Yes. I think that starting now early in the year, at least what visibility we have from the manufacturers is that run rates aren't changing a great deal, some up, some down, so overall for us we're expecting pretty flat through the first quarter and into the second quarter. I think it's yet to be determined as to how much that varies throughout the year. Certainly, there is going to be some pricing adjustments that will see some declines there as aluminum costs have come down, et cetera, et cetera. But I think from -- our organic growth should help to mitigate some of those declines on the pricing side of things, but it's yet to be determined, I would say, on what the volumes will be on -- for the manufacturers as you get further into the year.

是的。我認為從今年年初開始，至少我們從製造商那裡看到的是，運行率沒有太大變化，有的上升，有的下降，所以總體而言，我們預計第一季度基本持平一季度和二季度。我認為還沒有確定全年的變化有多大。當然，隨著鋁成本的下降等等，將會出現一些價格調整，價格會有所下降。但我認為，我們的有機增長應該有助於緩解價格方面的一些下降，但我想說，對於製造商來說，銷量還有待確定進一步進入一年。

It feels steady right now. They've been running at a good click for a while. And we anticipate at some point in time, it will cool off, but we're not seeing at this point in time.

現在感覺很穩。他們已經運行了一段時間。我們預計在某個時間點，它會冷卻下來，但我們目前還沒有看到。

Our next question is from Bret Jordan from Jefferies. Bret, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Bret Jordan。布雷特，您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

Quick question on -- you maybe you said this, but did you talk about your expectation on '23 retail and RV just sort of -- so we can line up what shipments might be versus clearing inventor?

快速提問——你也許說過這個，但你是否談到了你對 23 年零售和 RV 的期望——這樣我們就可以確定出貨量與清算發明人的關係？

Yes. We said on retail 370,000 to 390,000 is our expectation. Wholesale 325,000 to 350,000.

是的。我們說零售 370,000 到 390,000 是我們的預期。批發32.5萬到35萬。

And then, on Marine, the same question, I guess. Are you seeing that retail demand is clearing the inventory or is inventory building on the Marine side? Obviously, there is a backlog there because of supply problems, but is retail still as strong as it had been?

然後，在 Marine 上，同樣的問題，我想。您是否看到零售需求正在清理庫存或正在海運方面建立庫存？顯然，由於供應問題，那裡出現了積壓，但零售業是否還像以前一樣強勁？

Yes, I think they have been building some inventory and retail has fallen off just a little bit. But again, like I just mentioned a minute ago, we're not seeing the production rates change much on the OEM side. We anticipate that that'll happen at some point in time this year. But with the introduction of electric Biminis, lot of seating content, we got plenty of new business there to override any way the business might soften or the market might soften.

是的，我認為他們一直在建立一些庫存，而零售業只下降了一點點。但同樣，就像我剛才提到的那樣，我們沒有看到 OEM 方面的生產率發生太大變化。我們預計這會在今年的某個時間點發生。但隨著電動比米尼的推出，大量的座位內容，我們在那裡獲得了大量新業務，以超越業務可能疲軟或市場可能疲軟的任何方式。

And then a really big picture question. I guess you commented in the beginning about the RVIA forecast of 63 million RV trips this year and I think you talked about peer-to-peer RVshare, because I'm just trying to do the math. If there's 11 million RVs in the population, we're going to have 63 million people using them, is this peer-to-peer sharing to get this utilization? And I guess at some point is peer-to-peer a risk to the industry and that one RV can service 10 people as opposed to 10 people buying an RV, does it impact demand at some level?

然後是一個非常大的問題。我想你在一開始就評論了今年 6300 萬 RV 旅行的 RVIA 預測，我想你談到了點對點 RVshare，因為我只是想做數學。如果人口中有 1100 萬輛房車，我們將有 6300 萬人使用它們，這種點對點共享是否可以實現這種利用率？我想在某些時候點對點對行業來說是一種風險，一輛房車可以為 10 人提供服務，而不是 10 人購買房車，這是否會在某種程度上影響需求？

Yes. It's certainly both. When you look at the 3 million rental nights that RVshare and Outdoorsy have both have gone public with over the last -- talking about over the last few years, I mean that's a significant amount of rentals compared to what we would see in years pass before the marketplace existed.

是的。這當然是兩者兼而有之。當你看一下 RVshare 和 Outdoorsy 在過去幾年公開的 300 萬個出租夜數——談論過去幾年，我的意思是與我們在過去幾年看到的相比，這是一個可觀的租金數額市場存在。

So, yes, but I don't -- I really feel that -- in talking to a lot of consumers and we talk to a ton of consumers, I feel that there -- they use rentals as a way to gauge whether or not they want to buy an RV. Certainly you'll have families that want to rent anytime they use it, but you're going to have families that jump into the lifestyle and want to have their own and not use somebody else's every time they take a trip, especially if you're going to use it often.

所以，是的，但我不——我真的覺得——在與很多消費者交談時，我們與大量消費者交談，我覺得在那裡——他們使用租金來衡量是否他們想買一輛房車。當然，你會有一些家庭在他們使用它的任何時候都想租用它，但是你會有一些家庭跳入這種生活方式並且希望擁有自己的而不是每次旅行時都使用別人的，特別是如果你'我們會經常使用它。

So that's kind of the some of the feedback we hear from consumers -- from our customer experience team. I think it's really healthy for the industry. And then the rental individuals, the individuals that are running these RVs to the consumers, I mean some of these guys and gals are buying five, 10, 50 units and having a fleet and running them out and servicing them that way.

這就是我們從消費者那裡聽到的一些反饋——來自我們的客戶體驗團隊。我認為這對這個行業來說真的很健康。然後是出租人，將這些房車經營給消費者的人，我的意思是這些人中的一些人購買了 5 輛、10 輛、50 輛，並擁有一支車隊，然後用完它們並以這種方式為他們提供服務。

And then, one last question, I guess, on the cadence of pricing. Obviously, I think you talked about how we are going to be giving some of the price back that had been 30%-plus. Is it -- is most of the price decline already been seen or does it sort of staggered out through Q1 and Q2 on the RV OE price side?

然後，我猜最後一個問題是關於定價節奏的。顯然，我想你談到了我們將如何退還部分價格超過 30% 的價格。是 - 大部分價格下跌已經出現，還是在 RV OE 價格方面通過 Q1 和 Q2 交錯出現？

It really depends on what commodities end up doing over the next couple of quarters, but we feel like most of it is there. We actually -- I was going to mention this on a comment a minute ago, but there is actually some price increases going on too. So, other areas where we didn't have indexes, we're holding price as long as we can. So, I mean we're going to manage margin the very best we can to hit the target numbers we talked about a little bit ago, which we feel for a really down year are pretty solid.

這實際上取決於未來幾個季度大宗商品的最終表現，但我們認為其中大部分都存在。我們實際上——我一分鐘前打算在評論中提到這一點，但實際上價格也在上漲。因此，在我們沒有指數的其他領域，我們會盡可能長時間地保持價格。所以，我的意思是我們將盡最大努力管理利潤率，以達到我們之前談到的目標數字，我們認為這一年真的很低迷。

Yes, Brad, I would add, on the contractual one, July one, as we discussed previously, it was a very meaningful decrease for our customers. January one is another one. October was actually a slight increase, very nominal. But it's -- so given the volatility in that -- in this space, we've seen it move up and down, but some of the more meaningful decreases on a contractual basis have already been given at this point.

是的，布拉德，我要補充一點，正如我們之前討論的那樣，在合同的 7 月 1 日，這對我們的客戶來說是一個非常有意義的減少。一月一個是另一個。 10 月份實際上是略有增加，非常微不足道。但它 - 考慮到其中的波動性 - 在這個領域，我們已經看到它上下移動，但此時已經給出了一些基於合同的更有意義的減少。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Daniel Moore from CJS Securities. Daniel, please go ahead. Your line is now open.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 CJS 證券公司的 Daniel Moore。丹尼爾，請繼續。您的線路現已開通。

Just maybe to crystallize for aftermarket, what are you thinking about for growth for the full year? You gave a lot of color and commentary about some of the buying patterns for January. But what are your expectations for growth?

也許只是為了售後市場，你對全年的增長有何看法？你對一月份的一些購買模式給出了很多顏色和評論。但是您對增長的期望是什麼？

And second, in addition to the CapEx, just talk about how much working capital do you think you can take out this year? And what a free cash flow number might look like for '23? Thanks.

其次，除了資本支出，請談談您認為今年可以拿出多少營運資金？ 23 年的自由現金流數字可能是什麼樣的？謝謝。

Yes, I mean from a full year aftermarket perspective, Dan, I would say after we work through these first -- the first quarter, we would -- like I mentioned, towards the back half of the year, we'd get into the double-digit percentage growth rates. I think overall, it probably averages out to high single digit type growth for full year. So, a little under what we've seen historically. But certainly, given the current headwinds we've been seeing, that we should see a lot of improvement there.

是的，我的意思是，從全年售後市場的角度來看，丹，我想說的是，在我們首先完成這些工作之後——第一季度，我們會——就像我提到的那樣，在今年下半年，我們將進入兩位數的百分比增長率。我認為總的來說，它可能平均達到全年的高個位數類型增長。所以，比我們歷史上看到的要低一些。但可以肯定的是，考慮到我們目前看到的逆風，我們應該會看到很多改進。

From a cash perspective, I think that we'll have a better operating cash flow year in 2023 than we had in 2022 assuming we continue to bring inventories down. So, based on the guidance that were given on the overall expectations for the business, plus an additional $300-plus million type reduction in inventories for the year, you should be in excess of $700 million of operating cash flow, so -- which is actually slightly north of what we experienced in 2022. So, from a cash perspective, we're expecting really, really strong 2023.

從現金的角度來看，我認為假設我們繼續降低庫存，我們 2023 年的經營現金流量將比 2022 年更好。因此，根據對業務的總體預期給出的指導，加上今年額外 3 億美元以上的庫存減少，你的運營現金流應該超過 7 億美元，所以——這是實際上略高於我們在 2022 年所經歷的情況。因此，從現金的角度來看，我們預計 2023 年會非常非常強勁。

Our next question is from Brandon Rolle from D.A. Davidson. Brandon, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Brandon Rolle。戴維森。布蘭登，您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

Thank you. I just had a quick question on your shipment outlook. Did that change at all since your pre-announcement a couple of weeks ago?

謝謝。我只是想問一下你們的發貨前景。自幾週前您的預先公告以來，這種情況是否發生了變化？

No, I don't think so.

不，我不這麼認為。

Okay. And then on just the content per unit and de-contenting, given pricing seems to be the biggest impediment to retail right now, how much de-contenting are you expecting in this upcoming model year 2024? I think, a lot of people are expecting '24 to be cheaper than '23 and '22. I don't know if you're able to gauge that or if it's on a brand-by-brand basis, but on average I guess how much de-contenting do you expect to take place in this upcoming model year?

好的。然後就單位內容和去滿足度而言，鑑於定價似乎是目前零售業的最大障礙，您對即將到來的 2024 車型年的去滿足度有多少期望？我認為，很多人都期望 24 年會比 23 年和 22 年便宜。我不知道你是否能夠衡量這一點，或者它是否是基於品牌的，但平均而言，我猜你希望在即將到來的車型年中發生多少令人不快的事情？

I mean, not a ton honestly. I mean, we expect some de-contenting to happen, but now it's time to show the value you got in your units. And I mean, we've got -- I mean, I'll just give you an example. ABS brakes, we launched this year. We've got a ton of interest in that. And that's actually doubling the cost of axle products in the units.

我的意思是，老實說，不是很多。我的意思是，我們預計會出現一些令人不滿意的情況，但現在是時候展示您在單位中獲得的價值了。我的意思是，我們有——我的意思是，我只是給你舉個例子。 ABS 剎車，我們今年推出。我們對此很感興趣。這實際上使單位中車軸產品的成本翻了一番。

So, as I've said on a lot of our prior calls, the innovative products that we supply to the industry due to the fact that they not really commoditized, they're really special. We tend to have more of these types of options and sell the stuff into the units, whether the industry is good or bad, they tend to take out the commoditized type products. The commodities of the units and replace them with better features and values and take cost out that way and we just don't supply a lot of commodity type products to the industry.

因此，正如我在之前的許多電話會議上所說的那樣，我們向行業提供的創新產品是因為它們沒有真正商品化，它們真的很特別。我們傾向於擁有更多這些類型的選擇，並將這些東西出售給單位，無論行業是好是壞，他們都傾向於拿出商品化類型的產品。單位的商品並用更好的功能和價值取而代之，並以這種方式降低成本，我們只是不向行業提供大量商品類型的產品。

So, while they may do that, it tends not to affect us much, because if you need an axillary slide out on the unit, you're going to use an axillary slide or leveling systems and things like that. You're not going to take that stuff that the consumer needs off the unit. So, that's a short answer.

所以，雖然他們可能會這樣做，但它往往不會對我們產生太大影響，因為如果你需要在裝置上進行腋窩滑出，你將使用腋窩滑道或調平系統等類似的東西。你不會把消費者需要的東西從設備中拿走。所以，這是一個簡短的答案。

Our next question is from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets, Tristan, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Tristan Thomas-Martin，Tristan，您的線路現已開通。請繼續。

Good morning. I just had a question on your industry production outlook for the first quarter, I believe is at 45,000 to 50,000 units. If in -- January was at 14,000 and it seems like production started to come back in February, it's probably going to ramp up little more in March, what are the odds the industry ends up coming in ahead of your expectation?

早上好。我剛剛有一個關於第一季度行業生產前景的問題，我相信是 45,000 到 50,000 台。如果在 - 1 月份為 14,000，並且似乎產量在 2 月份開始恢復，那麼 3 月份可能會增加一點，那麼該行業最終超出您預期的可能性有多大？

Well, there is always a chance. So, as we've said before, we usually don't have great visibility out beyond three, four weeks from an order perspective. So, it's a hard question to answer, but it's all going to depend. And at this point where we're at on February 14, dealers that have to be putting through a lot of orders, and that's going to take time for them to produce, that hasn't really been happening yet. So, I wouldn't expect it to vary greatly. But there's always a chance to...

嗯，總是有機會的。因此，正如我們之前所說，從訂單的角度來看，我們通常不會超過三、四個星期。所以，這是一個很難回答的問題，但這一切都將取決於。在我們 2 月 14 日的這一點上，經銷商必須接受大量訂單，而且他們需要時間來生產，這還沒有真正發生。所以，我不希望它有很大的不同。但總有機會...

Better -- our 325,000 to 350,000, we bet on. We feel that's what a good number is. But at the end of the day, there's a lot of positives out there. I mean, unlike '08, you go back to the last big dip we've had in production, we -- the economy was really unhealthy. I mean, this time around the economy is pretty healthy. The retail consumer is pretty healthy. The OEMs are consolidated and pretty healthy. The dealers are much more consolidated and pretty healthy. Unemployment is low. There's just a lot of good things.

更好 - 我們打賭我們的 325,000 到 350,000。我們認為這就是一個好的數字。但歸根結底，有很多積極因素。我的意思是，與 08 年不同的是，你回到我們生產的最後一次大幅下滑，我們——經濟真的不健康。我的意思是，這一次經濟非常健康。零售消費者非常健康。原始設備製造商是整合的並且非常健康。經銷商更加鞏固和健康。失業率很低。有很多好東西。

There might be some pieces of the economy that get hit over the next six to 12 months. But the fact that it's not getting hit all at once, I think is a good sign. And the fact that retail staying relatively healthy right now, consumers healthy, it's -- I think we're in a good spot. We're in a good spot to get at or above what we're talking. I don't -- I wouldn't bet on below.

在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內，某些經濟領域可能會受到打擊。但事實上它並沒有一下子被擊中，我認為這是一個好兆頭。事實上，零售業目前保持相對健康，消費者健康，我認為我們處在一個好位置。我們處於一個很好的位置，可以達到或超過我們正在談論的內容。我不——我不會在下面打賭。

We currently have no further questions. I will now hand back to our speaker for final comments. Mr. Jason Lippert, please go ahead.

我們目前沒有進一步的問題。我現在將交還給我們的發言人進行最後評論。 Jason Lippert 先生，請繼續。

Thanks everybody again. And again, on the second what I just get on talking about. We are in a difficult period in the RV cycle right now, but we've been through before, we've got solid leadership, and the business is also much more diversified today than it was 10, 12 years ago when we went through it the last time, and that's going to give us a nice lift on the business. This time around, it doesn't feel nearly as bad as the last time we went through a recession. So -- and as I said, the OEMs and the dealers and the consumers are relatively healthy.

再次感謝大家。再說一次，我剛才談到的第二個問題。我們現在正處於 RV 週期的困難時期，但我們以前經歷過，我們有穩固的領導，今天的業務也比 10、12 年前我們經歷的時候更加多元化最後一次，這將使我們的業務得到很好的提升。這一次，感覺不像上次我們經歷衰退時那麼糟糕。所以——正如我所說，原始設備製造商、經銷商和消費者都相對健康。

So, I think we're in a good spot. We look forward to updating you. We'll know much more about the market and where the RV business is headed the next time we have a call. So, thanks for joining us. See you next time.

所以，我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。我們期待為您更新。下次我們接到電話時，我們會更多地了解市場以及房車業務的發展方向。所以，感謝您加入我們。下次見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。