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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Liberty Energy earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Anjali Voria, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
歡迎參加 Liberty Energy 收益電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Anjali Voria。請繼續。
Anjali Voria - Vice President of Investor Relations
Anjali Voria - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Bailey. Good morning, and welcome to the Liberty Energy third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining us on the call are Ron Gusek, Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Stock, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,貝利。早安,歡迎參加 Liberty Energy 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。參加電話會議的還有執行長 Ron Gusek 和財務長 Michael Stock。
Before we begin, I would like to remind all participants that some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements reflecting the company's view about future prospects, revenues, expenses, or profits. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the company's beliefs based on the current conditions that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that are detailed in our earnings release and other public filings.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒所有參與者,我們今天的一些評論可能包括前瞻性陳述,反映公司對未來前景、收入、支出或利潤的看法。這些事項涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異。這些聲明反映了公司基於當前狀況的信念,這些信念受到我們收益報告和其他公開文件中詳細說明的某些風險和不確定性的影響。
Our comments today may include non-GAAP financial and operational measures. These non-GAAP measures, including EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted net income per diluted share, adjusted pretax return on capital employed, and cash return on capital invested are not suitable for GAAP measures and may not be comparable to similar measures of other companies.
我們今天的評論可能包括非公認會計準則財務和營運指標。這些非 GAAP 指標,包括 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入、調整後的每股稀釋淨收入、調整後的稅前資本使用回報率和投資資本現金回報率,不適合 GAAP 指標,並且可能無法與其他公司的類似指標進行比較。
A reconciliation of net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, net income to adjusted net income and adjusted net income per diluted share, and the calculation of adjusted pretax return on capital employed, and cash return on capital invested as discussed on this call are available on our Investor Relations website.
本次電話會議中討論的淨收入與 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 的對帳、淨收入與調整後淨收入和調整後每股攤薄淨收入的對賬,以及調整後稅前資本使用回報率和投資資本現金回報率的計算,均可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。
I will now turn the call over to Ron.
現在我將把電話轉給羅恩。
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third-quarter 2025 operational and financial results. Liberty achieved revenue of $947 million and adjusted EBITDA of $128 million in the third quarter despite a slowdown in industry completions activity and market pricing pressure. Our team delivered solid operational results, once again delivering the highest combined average daily pumping efficiency and safety performance in Liberty's history.
大家早安,感謝您加入我們討論 2025 年第三季的營運和財務表現。儘管產業完工活動放緩且市場定價壓力加大,Liberty 第三季仍實現營收 9.47 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 1.28 億美元。我們的團隊取得了穩健的營運成果,再次實現了 Liberty 史上最高的平均每日泵送效率和安全性能。
We are committed to driving outstanding results for our customers while navigating current market challenges. Our leadership in technology innovation and service quality delivers differential results, strengthening long-term relationships and reinforcing our competitive position through cycles. While we anticipate market headwinds will persist in the near term, we are well positioned to capitalize on opportunities that will make us stronger as the cycle improves.
我們致力於在應對當前市場挑戰的同時,為客戶帶來卓越的成果。我們在技術創新和服務品質方面的領導地位帶來了差異化的成果,加強了長期關係,並在整個週期中鞏固了我們的競爭地位。雖然我們預計市場逆風將在短期內持續存在,但隨著週期的改善,我們已準備好抓住機遇,使我們變得更強大。
Our digiPrime fleets are achieving outstanding performance and leading efficiency metrics across the company. Several fleets deployed with our largest customers broke new records for pumping hours, horsepower hours, and proppant volumes pumped during the quarter. Additionally, our team's uniquely engineered digiPrime pumps are realizing measurable cost improvements relative to conventional technologies.
我們的 digiPrime 車隊在整個公司範圍內實現了出色的性能和領先的效率指標。我們為最大客戶部署的幾支車隊在本季度創造了泵送小時數、馬力小時數和支撐劑泵送量的新紀錄。此外,我們團隊獨特設計的 digiPrime 幫浦相對於傳統技術實現了可衡量的成本改進。
Early indications show total maintenance cost savings are greater than 30% on digiPrime pumps. The elegant simplicity of Liberty's design reflects advanced engineering and thoughtful innovation, resulting in a streamlined power-dense unit that delivers superior performance and increased output between maintenance cycles.
早期跡象表明,digiPrime 泵浦的總維護成本節省超過 30%。Liberty 設計的優雅簡潔體現了先進的工程技術和深思熟慮的創新,從而打造出精簡的功率密集型裝置,可在維護週期之間提供卓越的性能和更高的輸出。
Across our fleet, we are also driving meaningful efficiencies for our customers with our AI-driven automated and intelligent rate and pressure control software, StimCommander. This advanced fleet control software enables pump operators to navigate diverse fleet designs while seamlessly managing on-site pressure and rate. By automating these functions, StimCommander delivers significant benefits, faster and more consistent stage execution, reduced time on location, fuel savings, lower emissions, and improved safety.
在我們的整個車隊中,我們也透過人工智慧驅動的自動化和智慧速率和壓力控制軟體 StimCommander 為客戶帶來顯著的效率提升。這種先進的機組控制軟體使泵浦操作員能夠導航不同的機組設計,同時無縫管理現場壓力和速率。透過自動化這些功能,StimCommander 帶來了顯著的優勢,包括更快、更一致的階段執行、減少現場時間、節省燃料、降低排放並提高安全性。
Today, fleet automation is driving a 65% improvement in the time to deliver the desired fluid injection rate and a 5% to 10% improvement in hydraulic efficiency. This marks the culmination of a decade of effort by the Liberty team, enhanced by the strategic acquisition of SLB's completion technologies during the COVID downturn.
如今,車隊自動化使達到所需流體注入率的時間縮短了 65%,液壓效率提高了 5% 至 10%。這標誌著 Liberty 團隊十年努力的成果,並在 COVID 低迷時期對 SLB 完井技術的策略性收購進一步增強了這一成果。
Liberty's cloud-based platform, Forge, further empower StimCommander with intelligent asset orchestration through continuous AI optimization. By analyzing billions of data points and leveraging years of Liberty's best-in-class operational execution, Forge enhances StimCommander's performance and precision.
Liberty 的基於雲端的平台 Forge 透過持續的 AI 最佳化進一步為 StimCommander 提供智慧資產編排功能。透過分析數十億個數據點並利用 Liberty 多年來一流的營運執行力,Forge 提高了 StimCommander 的效能和精度。
We mistakenly called it a large language model in our press release, but it isn't static AI. It's a distributed agentic intelligence system built for the field. It continuously plans, learns, acts, and adapts through real-time feedback and reinforcement loops, ensuring each iteration enhances the next decision. By modeling the evolving behavior of every asset, Forge turns raw data into predictive intelligence, driving compounding performance gains across every stage, fleet, and operation.
我們在新聞稿中錯誤地將其稱為大型語言模型,但它並不是靜態人工智慧。它是一個為該領域建構的分散式代理智慧系統。它透過即時回饋和強化循環不斷地進行規劃、學習、行動和適應,確保每次迭代都能增強下一次決策。透過對每項資產不斷變化的行為進行建模,Forge 將原始數據轉化為預測智能,推動每個階段、車隊和營運的複合性能提升。
It also integrates critical insights from proprietary Liberty platforms like Frac Pulse, our real-time monitoring and analytics system, to provide comprehensive tracking of fleet condition performance and emissions. Together, these technologies create a powerful, adaptive automation ecosystem that delivers increasing operational efficiency and value.
它還整合了專有 Liberty 平台(如我們的即時監控和分析系統 Frac Pulse)的關鍵見解,以全面追蹤車隊狀況、性能和排放。這些技術共同創造了一個強大的、適應性強的自動化生態系統,可提高營運效率和價值。
Structural demand for power continues to strengthen as evidenced by large-scale long-duration power commitments across the industry. AI compute load represents a meaningful long-term growth opportunity, and broader electrification trends and industrial reshoring efforts are also driving incremental, steady baseload demand. At the same time, the grid is facing mounting reliability and capacity challenges driven by increased intermittent generation and a lack of investment in transmission infrastructure.
電力結構性需求持續增強,整個產業大規模的長期電力承諾就是明證。人工智慧運算負載代表著一個有意義的長期成長機會,更廣泛的電氣化趨勢和工業回流努力也在推動增量、穩定的基本負載需求。同時,由於間歇性發電增加和輸電基礎設施投資不足,電網面臨越來越大的可靠性和容量挑戰。
Liberty's power opportunities are strengthening as sophisticated electricity consumers seeking dynamic, flexible solutions are recognizing the value of having an advantaged energy partner that provides a solution aligned with their specific needs. Liberty is in close engagement with potential customers with large, highly transient power demand that will benefit from rapid deployment schedules with high reliability power solutions at grid competitive prices.
隨著尋求動態、靈活解決方案的成熟電力消費者認識到擁有一個能夠提供符合其特定需求的解決方案的優勢能源合作夥伴的價值,Liberty 的電力機會正在加強。Liberty 正與具有大量、高度瞬態電力需求的潛在客戶密切合作,這些客戶將受益於快速部署計劃、高可靠性電力解決方案和具有電網競爭力的價格。
Customers will have a key power partner that offers a fully integrated energy solution spanning on-site power, fuel management, and the option for grid integration and attributes. Furthermore, our on-site power solutions are fully customizable power plants that provide consumers with reliability and surety around long-term power costs. serving as a strategic hedge against potentially significant increases in grid power prices.
客戶將擁有一個關鍵的電力合作夥伴,提供涵蓋現場電力、燃料管理以及電網整合和屬性選項的完全整合的能源解決方案。此外,我們的現場電力解決方案是完全可客製化的發電廠,為消費者提供長期電力成本的可靠性和保證,作為對電網電價可能大幅上漲的策略性對沖。
We are confident in the growth trajectory of our Power business and are expanding our power deliveries in anticipation of customer conversions from our expansive pipeline of opportunities. We are in the process of securing additional power generation, bringing our total capacity to over 1 gigawatt to be delivered through 2027, and we expect further increases will be necessary to meet the growing demand for our services.
我們對電力業務的成長軌跡充滿信心,並正在擴大電力輸送,以期透過我們廣泛的機會實現客戶轉化。我們正在確保額外的發電量,使我們的總發電能力到 2027 年達到 1 千兆瓦以上,並且我們預計還需要進一步增加發電量才能滿足日益增長的服務需求。
Oil and gas industry frac activity has now fallen below levels required to sustain North American oil production. Oil producers, which comprise a vast majority of North American frac activity, opted to moderate completions against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and after exceeding production targets during the first half of the year. Slowing trends in oil markets have more than offset increased demand for natural gas fleet activity, where long-term fundamentals remain encouraging in support of LNG export capacity expansion and rising power consumption.
石油和天然氣產業的壓裂活動目前已低於維持北美石油生產所需的水平。佔北美壓裂活動絕大多數的石油生產商在宏觀經濟不確定的背景下以及在上半年超額完成生產目標後,選擇適度減少完井量。石油市場的放緩趨勢已足以抵消天然氣船隊活動需求的成長,長期基本面仍然令人鼓舞,支持液化天然氣出口能力的擴張和電力消耗的增加。
Moderation in activity anticipated in the near term is transitory in nature. Global oil oversupply is expected to peak during the first half of 2026. Many shale oil producers are targeting relatively flat oil production, requiring modest activity improvement in the coming year from current levels, and long-term gas demand and related completions activity continue to be on a favorable trajectory. Together, these factors set the backdrop for improving frac fundamentals later in 2026, assuming commodity futures prices remain supportive.
預計短期內經濟活動的放緩只是暫時的。預計全球石油供應過剩將在2026年上半年達到高峰。許多頁岩油生產商的目標是實現相對平穩的石油產量,要求來年的活動在當前水平上有所改善,長期天然氣需求和相關完井活動繼續保持良好的軌跡。假設商品期貨價格持續保持支撐,這些因素共同為 2026 年後期改善壓裂基本面奠定了基礎。
Lower industry activity and underutilized fleets in today's frac markets are driving pricing pressure, primarily for conventional fleets. This slowdown is accelerating equipment attrition and fleet cannibalization, setting the stage for a more constructive supply and demand balance of industry frac fleets in the future. An improvement in frac activity, coupled with tightening frac capacity, would support better pricing dynamics.
當今壓裂市場中產業活動減少和船隊利用率不足正在推高定價壓力,主要針對傳統船隊。這種放緩正在加速設備損耗和船隊拆解,為未來產業壓裂船隊更積極的供需平衡奠定基礎。壓裂活動的改善,加上壓裂能力的加強,將支持更好的定價動態。
The outlook for higher-quality, next-generation fleets remain strong as operators continue to demand next-generation fleets that provide significant fuel savings, emissions benefits and operational efficiencies. Liberty's digiTechnologies platform continues to see significant demand and more favorable economics through cycles and leverages our total service platform with scale advantages, integrated services, and robust digital technologies.
由於營運商繼續要求下一代機隊能夠顯著節省燃料、減少排放並提高營運效率,因此更高品質的下一代機隊的前景仍然強勁。Liberty 的 digiTechnologies 平台在各個週期中繼續看到巨大的需求和更有利的經濟效益,並利用我們的整體服務平台的規模優勢、綜合服務和強大的數位技術。
Although industry frac activity has declined since early 2023, the Liberty team has consistently outperformed markets by staying relentlessly focused on customer success and alignment of shared priorities. During the third quarter, we further strengthened our simul-frac offering with the reallocation of horsepower for long-term partners. We remain focused on expanding competitive advantages through cycles, allowing us to navigate softer anticipated conditions in the months ahead while remaining well positioned to react swiftly when demand for frac services rises.
儘管自 2023 年初以來,產業壓裂活動有所減少,但 Liberty 團隊始終堅持不懈地專注於客戶成功和共同優先事項的協調,並始終表現優於市場。在第三季度,我們透過為長期合作夥伴重新分配馬力,進一步加強了我們的同步壓裂服務。我們仍然專注於在周期中擴大競爭優勢,這使我們能夠在未來幾個月應對預期的疲軟環境,同時在壓裂服務需求上升時保持良好的快速反應能力。
We have never been better positioned to face tough markets and take advantage of profitable opportunities. We are excited by the momentum we are seeing in both our completions and power opportunities and are well positioned to deliver an unparalleled offering in the years ahead.
我們從未擁有過比現在更好的優勢來應對嚴峻的市場狀況並抓住獲利機會。我們對完工和電力機會所看到的勢頭感到興奮,並且已準備好在未來幾年提供無與倫比的產品。
I wanted to take a moment to share that we recently welcomed Alice Yake, a recognized energy and infrastructure expert, to our Board to help guide and accelerate our efforts in power services. With decades of leadership across energy infrastructure, power service and strategy, and regulatory affairs, as well as critical perspectives on electrical infrastructure challenges, she brings a rare combination of technical depth, policy insight, and executional excellence. As the energy landscape rapidly evolves and demand for resilient, reliable power systems grows, we're excited to move forward with intention, drawing on her expertise to shape impactful power solutions.
我想花點時間分享一下,我們最近歡迎公認的能源和基礎設施專家 Alice Yake 加入我們的董事會,以幫助指導和加速我們在電力服務方面的努力。她在能源基礎設施、電力服務和策略以及監管事務領域擁有數十年的領導經驗,並對電力基礎設施挑戰有著批判性的看法,將技術深度、政策洞察力和卓越的執行力完美地融為一體。隨著能源格局的快速發展以及對彈性、可靠電力系統的需求不斷增長,我們很高興能夠有目的地向前邁進,利用她的專業知識來打造有影響力的電力解決方案。
I will now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our financial results and outlook.
現在我將把電話轉給邁克爾,討論我們的財務表現和前景。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Good morning, everyone. Let me begin by celebrating the successes of the Liberty team. Our year-to-date results have been solid during a period marked by macro uncertainty, OPEC+ supply increases, softening fracturing. The Liberty team has outperformed the market by leading in reliability, technology, and service quality across all facets of the business, from frac and wireline to our sand mines and sand handling businesses, to CNG deliveries and power services.
大家早安。首先,我要慶祝自由團隊所取得的成功。在宏觀不確定性、OPEC+供應增加、壓裂緩解的時期,我們今年迄今的業績表現穩健。Liberty 團隊在業務的各個方面(從壓裂和電纜到我們的砂礦和砂處理業務,再到 CNG 交付和電力服務)在可靠性、技術和服務品質方面均處於領先地位,從而超越了市場。
We are proud of the hard work and dedication our team has shown over the last several years, continuing to drive innovation in equipment and digital technologies and strengthen our long-term competitive advantages. In the third quarter of 2025, revenue was $947 million, compared to $1 billion in the prior quarter. Our results decreased 9% sequentially as activity softened following a strong uptick in the second quarter and market-driven pricing headwinds took hold.
我們為團隊過去幾年所展現的辛勤工作和奉獻精神感到自豪,他們不斷推動設備和數位技術的創新,並增強我們的長期競爭優勢。2025 年第三季營收為 9.47 億美元,上一季為 10 億美元。由於第二季強勁上漲之後業務活動減弱,且市場驅動的定價逆風持續存在,我們的業績環比下降 9%。
Third-quarter net income of $43 million, compared to $71 million in the prior quarter. Adjusted net loss of $10 million, compared to adjusted net income of $20 million in the prior quarter, and excludes a $53 million tax-affected gains on investments.
第三季淨收入為 4,300 萬美元,而上一季為 7,100 萬美元。調整後淨虧損為 1,000 萬美元,而上一季調整後淨收入為 2,000 萬美元,且不包括 5,300 萬美元的受稅收影響的投資收益。
Fully diluted net income per share was $0.26, compared to $0.43 in the prior quarter. Adjusted net loss per diluted share was $0.06, compared to a profit of $0.12 in the prior quarter. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $128 million, compared to $181 million in the prior quarter. General and administrative expenses totaled $58 million in the third quarter, flat with the prior quarter, and included noncash stock-based compensation of $5 million.
每股完全攤薄淨收益為 0.26 美元,而上一季為 0.43 美元。調整後每股攤薄淨虧損為 0.06 美元,而上一季的利潤為 0.12 美元。第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.28 億美元,上一季為 1.81 億美元。第三季的一般和行政費用總計 5,800 萬美元,與上一季持平,其中包括 500 萬美元的非現金股票薪酬。
Other income items totaled $57 million for the quarter, inclusive of $68 million of gains on investments, offset by interest expense of approximately $11 million. Third-quarter tax expense was $12 million, approximately 22% of pretax income. We continue to expect tax expense rate to be approximately 25% of pretax income in 2025. And we expect no significant cash taxes in the fourth quarter.
本季其他收入項目總計 5,700 萬美元,其中包括 6,800 萬美元的投資收益,但被約 1,100 萬美元的利息支出所抵銷。第三季稅費為 1,200 萬美元,約佔稅前收入的 22%。我們繼續預計2025年的稅費率將達到稅前收入的約25%。我們預計第四季不會有大量現金稅。
We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $13 million and net debt of $240 million. Net debt increased by $99 million from the prior quarter. Third quarter use of cash included capital expenditures, working capital, lease payments, debt issuance costs, and $13 million in cash dividends. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter, including availability under the credit facility, was $146 million.
本季末,我們的現金餘額為 1,300 萬美元,淨債務為 2.4 億美元。淨債務較上一季增加了 9,900 萬美元。第三季的現金使用包括資本支出、營運資金、租賃付款、債務發行成本和 1,300 萬美元的現金股利。本季末的總流動資金(包括信貸額度下的可用資金)為 1.46 億美元。
Net capital expenditures were $113 million in the third quarter, which included investments in digi fleets, capitalized maintenance spending, LPI infrastructure, power generation, and other projects. We had approximately $6 million of proceeds from assets held in the quarter, and we now expect total capital expenditures for 2025 of approximately $525 million to $550 million.
第三季淨資本支出為 1.13 億美元,其中包括對數位車隊、資本化維護支出、LPI 基礎設施、發電和其他項目的投資。本季我們從持有的資產中獲得了約 600 萬美元的收益,現在我們預計 2025 年的總資本支出約為 5.25 億至 5.5 億美元。
In the fourth quarter, we're anticipating normal seasonal trends relative to the third quarter. E&P production outperformance coupled with the economic uncertainties already led to an industry-wide activity reductions in the third quarter, setting up a more normal cadence of activity into the fourth quarter. At these levels, we believe the industry activity will begin to stabilize and could see an eventual uptick during 2026.
我們預計第四季的季節性趨勢與第三季相比將保持正常。勘探與生產生產的優異表現加上經濟的不確定性已經導致第三季全行業活動減少,為第四季的活動節奏更加正常奠定了基礎。我們相信,在這些水準上,產業活動將開始穩定,並可能在 2026 年最終出現回升。
Looking ahead, our 2026 capital expenditures are markedly shifting towards the growing opportunities for power generation services. We now expect to have approximately 500 megawatts of generation delivered by the end of '26, another 1 gigawatt of cumulative power generation by the end of '27. We expect further increases will be necessary to meet significant power opportunities while our completions CapEx moderates in the years ahead.
展望未來,我們 2026 年的資本支出將大幅轉向日益增長的發電服務機會。我們現在預計,到 26 年底,發電量將達到約 500 兆瓦,到 27 年底,累計發電量將達到 1 千兆瓦。我們預計,未來幾年我們的完工資本支出將會放緩,但為了滿足龐大的電力需求,我們還需要進一步增加產能。
We remain relentlessly focused on generating significant value for our shareholders. We believe we are fast approaching the bottom of the trough in our cyclical completions business, and we are excited by the momentum we are seeing in power opportunities. As such, we increased our quarterly cash dividend by 13% to reflect the confidence we have in our future and a continued commitment to delivering long-term value to shareholders.
我們始終堅持不懈地致力於為股東創造重大價值。我們相信,我們的週期性完井業務正快速接近谷底,我們對電力機會中看到的勢頭感到興奮。因此,我們將季度現金股利提高了 13%,以反映我們對未來的信心以及對為股東提供長期價值的持續承諾。
I will now turn it back to the operator for Q&A, after which Ron will have some closing comments at the end of the call.
現在我將把時間交還給接線員進行問答,之後 Ron 將在通話結束時發表一些結束語。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Stephen Gengaro, Stifel.
(操作員指示)Stephen Gengaro,Stifel。
Stephen Gengaro - Analyst
Stephen Gengaro - Analyst
Ron, I think the first for me is, I think we've, in general, come to have a lot of confidence in Liberty's deployment of capital. But the big question that we get often is you have power on order and we're sort of awaiting contracts. So can you just talk about sort of your visibility on demand for the power generation assets that you're planning to add over the next 24 months?
羅恩,我認為對我來說首先的是,我認為我們總體上對 Liberty 的資本部署非常有信心。但我們經常遇到的一個大問題是,您是否已訂購電力,而我們正在等待合約。那麼,您能否談談您計劃在未來 24 個月內增加的發電資產的需求可見度?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Certainly, Stephen. And first of all, I appreciate your recognizing that we are sound stewards of capital. We've done that for 15 years, and I would certainly assure you that we don't view the power business any differently than that. This is not something we're going to approach any differently than we have our core business.
當然,史蒂芬。首先,我很感激您認可我們是資本的可靠管理者。我們已經這樣做了 15 年,我確信地向你們保證,我們對電力業務的看法並沒有什麼不同。我們處理此事的方式與我們處理核心業務的方式並無不同。
I would tell you a few things in answer to that. First of all, I think we've learned that it takes a little longer in the power business to get a contract to completion than it does in our core oilfield services business. And so while you always have lots of great opportunities that we've talked about, our sales pipeline there, it just takes a bit more time to get these things to the place where we're comfortable making an official announcement around them.
針對這個問題,我想告訴你一些事情。首先,我認為我們已經了解到,電力業務中完成合約所需的時間比我們的核心油田服務業務中要長一些。因此,儘管我們一直有很多很好的機會,我們的銷售管道也在那裡,但需要更多的時間才能將這些事情帶到我們願意就其進行正式宣布的地方。
I would say, maybe in general answer to your question, a few things. Number one, in the last 90 days, our sales pipeline has more than doubled from what we talked about at the end of the second quarter. I would tell you also that the urgency in that sales pipeline has increased meaningfully. And so, we're absolutely feeling that, and you're seeing that in our response around ordering power.
我想說,也許可以整體回答你的問題,有幾件事。第一,在過去的 90 天裡,我們的銷售管道比第二季末增加了一倍以上。我還要告訴你,銷售管道的迫切性已顯著增加。所以,我們確實感受到了這一點,而且您可以從我們對權力命令的回應中看到這一點。
I would tell you that between LOIs and contract terms, we have out in front of customers paper for more than a few gigawatts of capacity needs. And I would tell you that ourselves as the leadership team, together with our Board, are sufficiently confident in our ability to convert some of that to long-term contracts that we have made the decisions we have around the ordering of additional capacity.
我想告訴你,在意向書和合約條款之間,我們已經向客戶提供了超過幾千兆瓦的容量需求的文件。我想告訴你們,我們領導團隊和董事會都對我們有能力將其中一部分合約轉換為長期合約充滿信心,我們已經就訂購額外產能做出了決定。
These conversations will carry on. And when we get to a place where we have paper we're comfortable talking about and making a firm announcement around, we'll absolutely do that. I would say that in all cases, we're talking about long-duration partnerships here, things that are measured in 15-plus years. I would also say that these are things that would be deployed over a period of time. This is not conversations for deployments overnight, but as you've come to see, I think, with data centers, things that would grow gradually in building blocks over a period of years.
這些對話將會持續下去。當我們有了可以放心談論的文件並且可以放心宣布的時候,我們絕對會這麼做。我想說的是,在所有情況下,我們談論的都是長期合作關係,以 15 年以上來衡量。我還想說,這些都是將在一段時間內部署的事情。這不是一夜之間就能完成部署的討論,但正如你所看到的,我認為,對於資料中心來說,事情會在幾年的時間裡逐漸發展。
Stephen Gengaro - Analyst
Stephen Gengaro - Analyst
Great. Thanks for all the detail. And just one quick follow up. Is there a specific customer base we should be thinking about? Or is it data centers, energy applications, et cetera, or is it something specific that you're really targeting?
偉大的。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。還有一個快速的後續問題。我們是否應該考慮特定的客戶群?或者是資料中心、能源應用等等,還是您真正針對的特定領域?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would say that we -- of course, we continue to talk to a range of end-use customers. I would say that my expectation is we probably end up with a higher percentage of our capacity with data center customers than maybe we had anticipated at the outset of our foray into this business.
我想說的是,我們——當然,我們會繼續與一系列最終用戶進行交流。我想說的是,我的預期是,我們最終向資料中心客戶提供的容量比例可能會比我們剛進軍這項業務時所預期的要高。
Stephen Gengaro - Analyst
Stephen Gengaro - Analyst
Great. Thanks for the color.
偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。
Operator
Operator
Marc Bianchi, Cowen.
馬克·比安奇,考恩。
Marc Bianchi - Analyst
Marc Bianchi - Analyst
I guess on the financing of all of this capacity that's coming in, where is the capital going to come from? Are you potentially getting customer prepayments or maybe we have some sort of PPA and you can finance against that? What should the capital look like for funding this growth?
我想,對於所有這些即將投入的產能,資金將從何而來?您是否有可能獲得客戶預付款,或者我們有某種 PPA,您可以據此融資?為實現這項成長,需要什麼樣的資金支持?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Yeah. I'll take that one, Marc. So power plants, PPAs, or any long-lived assets like this, like we think how the co-locators or those data centers fund their projects, there'll be a long-term ESA, energy service agreement, PPA. The assets themselves will be, most likely for the large loan customers, dropped down into a project company.
是的。我會接受這個,馬克。因此,發電廠、PPA 或任何類似的長期資產,例如我們認為的共置商或資料中心如何為他們的專案提供資金,都會有一個長期的 ESA、能源服務協議、PPA。對於大額貸款客戶來說,資產本身很可能會投入專案公司。
Those project companies will be funded by debt that is backed by that PPA ESA. Think about the fact that most likely that will be project-specific debt, maybe around -- you could get to approximately 70% of the capital needs by debt. It will be nonrecourse to the corporation. Probably funded, if you were looking at the debt markets at the moment, anywhere depending on the -- whether you're in construction or whether or not you are in production of electrons, that's probably somewhere between mid- to high-single-digit paper that you're looking at there.
這些專案公司將透過 PPA ESA 支持的債務獲得資金。想想這個事實,最有可能的是專案特定的債務,大概大約——你可以透過債務來滿足大約 70% 的資本需求。該公司將無權追索。可能有資金,如果你現在正在關注債務市場,那麼任何地方都取決於 - 無論你是從事建築業還是從事電子產品生產,你正在看的可能是中等到高個位數的紙張。
The balance would be -- come from cash flow, which is, again, the 70% will come from cash flow from the company and corporate debt, so that would be. We may look at, depending on the size of the project and the partners involved, taking on potentially minority infrastructure partners alongside us in some of those projects. So that's the large load, when we think about the data center, the big -- large load projects or even the large load C&I, you think about greenfield industrial projects.
餘額將來自現金流,也就是說,70% 將來自公司現金流和公司債務,就是這樣。根據專案的規模和所涉及的合作夥伴,我們可能會考慮在其中一些專案中引入少數族裔基礎設施合作夥伴。這就是大負荷,當我們考慮資料中心、大型大負荷專案甚至大負荷 C&I 時,您會想到綠地工業專案。
The smaller projects, if you think sub-100 megawatts, will be funded on the balance sheet. Those ones when you think about oil and gas customers, et cetera, they will be maybe shorter term, somewhere between 5- and 10-year contracts of small numbers.
如果您認為較小的項目低於 100 兆瓦,那麼這些項目將在資產負債表上獲得資助。當您考慮石油和天然氣客戶等時,他們可能會簽訂短期合同,合約期限在 5 到 10 年之間,金額較小。
And as you see, some of our larger projects, we may well do with our other partnership, technology partnerships. And as we see, you may have multiple technologies in there as evidenced by our hopeful partnership that is in the future in the 2030s, but that will also potentially be part of it as well. So there will be a lot of details around each of these projects that will come out when we make the announcements.
如您所見,我們的一些大型專案可能會與其他合作夥伴、技術合作夥伴一起完成。正如我們所見,其中可能包含多種技術,正如我們充滿希望的 2030 年代的合作夥伴關係所證明的那樣,但這也可能是其中的一部分。因此,當我們宣布這些項目時,將會公佈有關每個項目的大量細節。
Marc Bianchi - Analyst
Marc Bianchi - Analyst
That's very helpful. Thank you, Michael. The other question I had was on -- we've heard some of the other participants in sort of mobile energy support for data centers talk about transient response, and you guys mentioned it in your press release. These other participants have said that there's certain technology advantages that they have around satisfying that need. Can you talk about how Liberty plans to handle that? And maybe just educate us a little bit about what the transient response involves.
這非常有幫助。謝謝你,麥可。我的另一個問題是——我們聽到一些其他參與者在資料中心行動能源支援方面談論瞬態回應,你們在新聞稿中提到了這一點。其他參與者表示,他們在滿足這項需求方面擁有一定的技術優勢。您能談談 Liberty 計劃如何處理這個問題嗎?也許只是向我們稍微介紹一下瞬態響應所涉及的內容。
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, we won't get into the absolute details there, Marc. Certainly, we're working on some thoughtful and, I'd say, maybe somewhat proprietary solutions around that. But I would tell you that our electrical engineering team has been working very, very closely with our partners in that space around a very specific solution to that.
好吧,我們不會討論到太詳細的細節,馬克。當然,我們正在研究一些深思熟慮的解決方案,我想說,也許是一些專有的解決方案。但我想告訴你,我們的電氣工程團隊一直與該領域的合作夥伴密切合作,尋找一個非常具體的解決方案。
And that solution is tailored specifically to the generation assets that we will be deploying to any given individual project. So of course, as you can appreciate, a large recip behaves slightly differently than a smaller recip behaves slightly differently than a gas turbine. And so as you consider being able to respond to transient loads in each of those environments, you need to have a solution that is tailor-made to that.
該解決方案專門針對我們將部署到任何特定單一專案的發電資產而客製化。因此,當然,正如您所理解的,大型往復式渦輪機的行為與小型往復式渦輪機的行為略有不同,與燃氣渦輪機的行為也略有不同。因此,當您考慮能夠響應每個環境中的瞬態負載時,您需要有一個針對該環境量身定制的解決方案。
And so we're confident that our engineering team, together with those partners, have a fantastic solution that meets those needs. And so we're comfortable with how we're moving forward there.
因此,我們相信,我們的工程團隊和合作夥伴能夠提供滿足這些需求的絕佳解決方案。因此,我們對未來的進展感到滿意。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
And one thing I might clarify there, Marc, just a little bit. Yeah, I wouldn't characterize it as mobile power. I think sort of that's left over from a couple of years ago. There is some mobile power, what we use for frac. There will be some version of mobile power that we will use for -- think about [datable] commissioning or special power boosting wins needed when you're kind of doing an expansion on a site-specific project.
馬克,有一件事我想稍微澄清一下。是的,我不會將其描述為行動電源。我認為這是幾年前遺留下來的問題。有一些行動電源,我們用它來進行壓裂。我們將使用某種版本的行動電源 - 考慮一下當您在特定站點項目上進行擴展時所需的[可計算的]調試或特殊功率提升勝利。
But this is [institute] power, permanently in place, doing permanent power generation. So I would say, I think you need to kind of think about that differently from the sort of the generator renter companies. This is truly pure generation.
但這是[機構]力量,永久存在,永久發電。所以我想說,我認為你需要以不同於發電機租賃公司的方式來思考這個問題。這才是真正純粹的一代。
Marc Bianchi - Analyst
Marc Bianchi - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much.
偉大的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Scott Gruber, Citigroup.
花旗集團的史考特‧格魯伯。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
I want to get a little more details just around the CapEx buildup for next year with the additional megawatts coming in. And I assume that the base business kind of down towards those maintenance CapEx. Maybe if you can give us some additional color on the building blocks for that, the '26 CapEx figure?
我想了解更多有關明年資本支出增加以及新增兆瓦發電量的細節。我認為基礎業務有點傾向於維護資本支出。也許您可以給我們一些關於其構成要素的額外信息,即 26 年的資本支出數字?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Yeah. As obvious, we always give you the details in the January call, and we'll give you the buildup and then kind of update that guidance as we go through it. But yeah, we're speaking to have approximately 500 megawatts through the end of the year. Some of that will be landing towards the end of the year, then will just be the package generation. But some of it will -- or a significant portion of it will be with installation.
是的。顯然,我們總是在一月份的電話會議中向您提供詳細信息,並且我們會向您提供總結,然後在討論過程中更新該指導。但是的,我們預計到今年年底將有約 500 兆瓦的發電量。其中一些將於今年年底推出,然後只是軟體包的生成。但其中一部分——或者很大一部分——將與安裝有關。
So I think you can use sort of a variation around -- just think about installed generation around about 1.5 million, 1.6 million a megawatt. If you think of sort of long lead and generators at around 1 million. So it will be the balance of that. And we'll give you an update, a view of that in January as we go through. And we'll give you -- probably, I would say, expect in January, a bit more of a longer-term look on our current views on future cash flows in the power business. We'll take a little bit of a longer view on how we talk to the Street by January on that part of the business.
所以我認為你可以使用某種變體——只需考慮安裝的發電量約為每兆瓦 150 萬到 160 萬。如果您考慮一下長引線和發電機的價格約為 100 萬。所以這將是平衡的。我們將在 1 月向您提供最新進展和觀點。我們將在一月份向您提供關於我們目前對電力業務未來現金流的看法的更長期的展望。我們將從更長遠的角度考慮明年一月我們將如何與華爾街討論這部分業務。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
(inaudible). Kind of speaks to my next question. I was going to ask maybe to provide some color just on the EBITDA payback on the contracts you're seeing, if it's kind of 1.5-ish on CapEx per megawatt, are you still thinking we're kind of in that three to four-year payback on that investment?
(聽不清楚)。這有點回答了我的下一個問題。我本來想問一下,也許只是提供一些您所看到的合約的 EBITDA 回報的細節,如果每兆瓦的資本支出約為 1.5,您是否仍然認為我們可以在三到四年內收回這項投資?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
So, Scott, obviously, it obviously depends on the term of the contract. When you think about longer live contracts with investment-grade clients in the 15-plus years, obviously, you're going to have a longer cash-on-cash payback to achieve our targeted return profile of an unlevered cash return in sort of the high teens, right? So you're probably talking five, five-and-a-bit on that.
所以,斯科特,顯然,這取決於合約期限。當您考慮與投資等級客戶簽訂 15 年以上的長期有效合約時,顯然,您將獲得更長的現金回報期,以實現我們目標的無槓桿現金回報,對嗎?所以你大概會談論五到五個。
Short-term contracts, obviously, will be a quicker payback. So if you're doing shorter-term contracts in the five to seven years for smaller oil and gas implementation, yeah, you'll be on the three-plus year, the three-year version of that. But the longer-life contracts, obviously, you're going to have a longer payback period, but much more secured and it's going to be take-or-pay ESAs.
顯然,短期合約的回報會更快。因此,如果您為較小的石油和天然氣項目簽訂了五到七年的短期合同,是的,您的合同期限將是三年以上,即三年期版本。但合約期限越長,顯然回報期就越長,但安全性就越高,而且是照付不付的 ESA。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
I got you. If I could sneak one more in. Is there a tension today between kind of reserving some capacity for larger data center contracts and kind of not wanting to dedicate that capacity to some other end markets? Or is the data center opportunity moving so quickly that you guys don't really feel a tension in terms of dedicating capacity at this juncture?
我接到你了。如果我能再偷偷溜進去一個。目前是否存在一種矛盾,一方面是為更大的資料中心合約保留一些容量,另一方面又不想將這些容量用於其他終端市場?或者資料中心的機會發展得太快了,以至於你們在此刻並沒有真正感受到專用容量方面的壓力?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
There is significant tension around reserving capacity. Near-term generation capacity -- near-term generation need is very high, near-term generation capacity is nowhere near what's available in the market. So there is significant tension around that.
儲備能力方面存在很大緊張局勢。近期發電能力-近期發電需求非常高,近期發電量遠不及市場現有水準。因此,這方面存在著很大的緊張局勢。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Interesting. Okay. Thanks for the thoughts.
有趣的。好的。謝謝你的想法。
Operator
Operator
Ati Modak, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的阿蒂·莫達克(Ati Modak)。
Ati Modak - Analyst
Ati Modak - Analyst
Ron, you mentioned it's taking longer to sign some of these power contracts because the market is different, but can you help us think through the steps that you are looking at to sign these contracts so that we understand it?
羅恩,您提到由於市場不同,簽署一些電力合約需要更長的時間,但您能否幫助我們思考簽署這些合約的步驟,以便我們理解?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And I think there's a number of them. Of course, these are big projects. These are billions and billions and billions of dollars of investment that are going into the ground there. And so as you think about all the pieces that have to come together there, it's not an insignificant number. In our oilfield services world, you have an E&P that's already locked up land, they've done their geology work and they're drilling wells in a pretty straightforward cadence. And so they have a pretty clear outlook to that.
是的。我認為有很多這樣的情況。當然,這些都是大項目。那裡的土地投資已達數十億美元。因此,當您考慮必須將所有部分組合在一起時,您會發現這並不是一個微不足道的數字。在我們的油田服務領域,您擁有一家已經鎖定土地的 E&P 公司,他們已經完成了地質工作,並且正在以相當直接的節奏鑽井。因此他們對此有非常清晰的看法。
In this case, you're talking about a series of parties that have to come together, identify the land, take care of air permitting, fiber, fuel source in the form of natural gas, and end-use. If you're a hyperscaler, the end-use contract with the customer that's going to co-locate in that facility. So you have to have a number of these pieces that all come together.
在這種情況下,您談論的是一系列必須聚集在一起的各方,確定土地,處理空氣許可、纖維、天然氣形式的燃料來源和最終用途。如果您是超大規模企業,則需要與將在該設施內共同定位的客戶簽訂最終使用合約。因此,你必須將多個這樣的部分組合在一起。
And ultimately, when all of those are satisfied, then they get comfortable signing the final energy services agreement with us. And so while they are somewhat long in the making, you get -- I would say we get to clarity around what the end result is going to look like sooner than that. But that doesn't mean you're at a firm contract at that point in time. So we just have to work alongside of them and -- as they work through these steps and patiently stand by until we get to a place where we can sign the final documents.
最終,當所有這些都得到滿足時,他們就會放心地與我們簽署最終的能源服務協議。因此,儘管它們的製作過程有些漫長,但我想說,我們很快就能清楚最終結果會是什麼樣子。但這並不代表你當時就簽訂了固定合約。因此,我們只需要與他們一起工作——在他們完成這些步驟的同時,耐心等待,直到我們可以簽署最終文件。
Ati Modak - Analyst
Ati Modak - Analyst
That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the explanation there. And then maybe for Michael, you talked about project level financing for some of these entities. Would you consider equity or any kind of converts as potential tools in the mix?
這很有道理。感謝您的解釋。然後也許對於邁克爾,您談到了其中一些實體的專案級融資。您是否會考慮將股權或任何類型的轉換作為組合中的潛在工具?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
So, obviously, Ati, we are always looking for the most cost-effective and the most efficient way to finance the growth of this company to drive the highest value for our investors. So as we would say, nothing is necessarily off the table. But we have, I believe, a very, very clear path to being able to fund a large portion of these projects that -- without major dilution.
因此,顯然,Ati,我們一直在尋找最具成本效益和最有效的方式來資助這家公司的成長,為我們的投資者創造最高的價值。所以正如我們所說,沒有什麼是不可能的。但我相信,我們有一條非常清晰的途徑來為這些項目的大部分提供資金,而不會造成重大稀釋。
Ati Modak - Analyst
Ati Modak - Analyst
Got it. Thank you so much.
知道了。太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Saurabh Pant, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Saurabh Pant。
Saurabh Pant - Analyst
Saurabh Pant - Analyst
Ron, Mike, it sounds like you're making a lot of good progress on the power side of things. And maybe kind of a follow up on what Ati just asked on the contract, right, how are you thinking about those contracts. These are very different from what -- not just you, what we are used to, right? So we are trying to figure out how are you looking at potential risks and pitfalls and liabilities, right, all of that good stuff, right?
羅恩、麥克,聽起來你們在電力方面取得了很大進展。也許可以跟進一下 Ati 剛才關於合約的問題,對吧,你對這些合約有什麼看法。這些與你所習慣的非常不同——不僅僅是你,還有我們習慣的,對吧?所以我們試圖弄清楚您如何看待潛在的風險、陷阱和責任,對吧,所有這些好東西,對吧?
So maybe just a little bit of color, 15-year, maybe north of 15-year contracts, how do you protect yourself from that risk? I know the opportunity is fantastic, right, but I'm just weighing up both sides of the equation.
所以也許只是一點點顏色,15 年,也許是 15 年以上的合同,你如何保護自己免受這種風險?我知道這個機會很棒,對吧,但我只是在權衡等式的兩邊。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Right. So the first way that you look at is who is your counterparty, Saurabh. So okay, you're looking at, even though -- let's just say 70% the sort of data market that's going to be built is probably six or seven large -- very, very large investment-grade clients. right? The other 30% is more the multiple uses, the banks, so the BofAs, the JPMorgans, the smaller companies in the world. It's a joke.
正確的。因此,你首先要看的是誰是你的交易對手,Saurabh。好吧,您正在看,儘管——假設 70% 即將建立的數據市場可能是六到七個大型——非常非常大的投資級客戶。對嗎?其餘 30% 則有多種用途,包括銀行,例如美國銀行、摩根大通以及全球規模較小的公司。這是個笑話。
But the -- those sort of large investment-grade offtake, and so your ESA is with that large investment-grade offtake. You're doing it in conjunction with a company, these very large developers who build the data centers and run them as a REIT, so you choose your counterparty on that side very closely, somebody who's got an execution history, the ability to put the buildings on the ground in a reasonable time frame, right?
但是 — — 那些大型投資等級承購,所以您的 ESA 是與那些大型投資等級承購相關的。你是與一家公司合作的,這些非常大的開發商建造數據中心並將其作為房地產投資信託基金來運營,所以你會非常仔細地選擇你的交易對手,一個有執行歷史、有能力在合理的時間範圍內將建築物投入使用的人,對嗎?
Then you've got to look at, obviously, you've got an engineering effort on your own, making sure you understand your solutions, making sure you understand the delivery of your supply chain and your EPC partner that is executing on there to make sure that you are not running in, that you said, a reasonable time schedule, you have no issues around delays around LDs.
然後你必須考慮,顯然,你自己已經進行了工程努力,確保你了解你的解決方案,確保你了解你的供應鏈的交付以及在那裡執行的 EPC 合作夥伴,以確保你沒有陷入你說的合理的時間表,你不會遇到 LD 延遲的問題。
It's an engineering solution, making sure that you're building, let's just say, 1.2, 1.3x to get you your [5, 9s], which we can do with the smaller recips, and your comfort level around being able to deliver that [IT] load that they need. So it's all of that managed by the team here, rolling up into a risk committee. There's a review on every single project. And that balance of that is what protection.
這是一個工程解決方案,確保您正在構建,比如說 1.2、1.3 倍,以獲得 [5, 9s],我們可以使用較小的 recip 來實現,並且您的舒適度能夠提供他們所需的 [IT] 負載。所以這一切都由這裡的團隊管理,並由風險委員會負責。每個項目都有評論。這種平衡就是保護。
Now each one of these projects, these large loan projects, will be rolled down into a separate project code, as I said, with nonrecourse debt that have specific -- or just like you do with any other large real estate development, with the corporate protections around that. So it's a very different setup from our current business, but we have thought through all that very, very carefully.
現在,每一個項目,這些大型貸款項目,都將被歸入一個單獨的項目代碼,正如我所說的,具有特定無追索權債務 - 或者就像你對任何其他大型房地產開發項目所做的那樣,有企業保護措施。因此,這與我們目前的業務設置非常不同,但我們已經非常仔細地考慮過了。
Saurabh Pant - Analyst
Saurabh Pant - Analyst
Okay. No, that's fantastic color. Mike. We'll keep an eye out on how things evolve. But one other thing, Ron, Mike, whoever wants to take this. On the technology side of things, right? When we were talking about 400 megawatt, that was supposed to be all nat gas recips, right? But now that we are over 1 gigawatt, and again, this is not the end, by the way, right? I'm sure you would look at more opportunities.
好的。不,那顏色太漂亮了。麥克風。我們將密切關注事態發展。但還有一件事,羅恩、麥克,無論誰想接受這件事。從技術方面來說,對嗎?當我們談論 400 兆瓦時,那應該是全部天然氣發電,對嗎?但現在我們已經超過 1 千兆瓦了,順便說一句,這還不是結束,對吧?我相信你會尋找更多的機會。
How are we looking at the technology side of things evolving between recips and turbines and maybe a little bit of a battery to supplement all of that, right? How are you thinking about that? And then just the lead time to order that and get that in time?
我們如何看待往復式引擎和渦輪機之間技術方面的發展,也許還需要一點電池來補充所有這些,對嗎?您對此有何看法?然後只需要提前一段時間訂購並及時收到貨嗎?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's a very good question. And I would say that I think we've always said, while recips are going to form the core of our technology platform, that we recognize there are going to be cases where other technologies will make a lot of sense in concert with those or maybe in place of those.
這是一個非常好的問題。我想說的是,我們一直在說,雖然互惠互利將構成我們技術平台的核心,但我們認識到,在某些情況下,其他技術與這些技術相結合或取代這些技術將非常有意義。
So I would tell you today that of the of the capacity we are procuring, the large majority of that remains gas recip engines. We like that technology and we believe it brings some inherent benefits to the table, particularly around heat rate. But that said, when it comes to power density, you get some real benefits from a gas turbine. And so we absolutely see those as part of the puzzle.
因此,我今天要告訴大家,在我們採購的容量中,絕大多數仍然是燃氣往復發動機。我們喜歡這項技術,我們相信它會帶來一些固有的好處,特別是在熱效率方面。但話雖如此,當談到功率密度時,燃氣渦輪機確實能帶來一些好處。因此,我們絕對認為這些是謎題的一部分。
And then as you think down the road, you know the end-use parties that are going to be consuming these electrons, or at least the vast majority of them, and they all have publicly stated goals around reducing the carbon intensity of their electricity. We have some very specific partnerships around that, particularly the Oklo partnership. We will, some time into the next decade, be able to bring small modular nuclear to the table. And so we see that being a piece of the puzzle as well.
然後當你思考未來時,你知道最終用戶將會消耗這些電子,或至少絕大多數電子,並且他們都公開宣布了降低電力碳強度的目標。我們圍繞著這一點建立了一些非常具體的合作夥伴關係,特別是與 Oklo 的合作夥伴關係。在未來十年的某個時候,我們將能夠推出小型模組化核電廠。因此我們也將其視為難題的一部分。
In the nearer term, recognizing that emissions can be a challenge, particularly in nonattainment areas, and we've talked about the Colorado Air & Space Port as an example. The front range of Colorado is a non-attainment area and requires some very specific solutions to ensure we can achieve the emissions caps that are necessary there. Fuel cells offer a great partnership together with gas recip to help accomplish that. And so you can expect, as we talk about these projects in the future, likely a mix of generation technologies that are best suited to address the needs of that particular site.
從短期來看,認識到排放可能是一個挑戰,特別是在未達標地區,我們已經以科羅拉多航空航天港為例進行了討論。科羅拉多州前山脈是一個未達標地區,需要一些非常具體的解決方案來確保我們能夠實現那裡必要的排放上限。燃料電池與氣體往復器配合良好,有助於實現這一目標。因此,當我們在未來討論這些項目時,您可以預期,可能會採用最適合滿足特定站點需求的多種發電技術。
Saurabh Pant - Analyst
Saurabh Pant - Analyst
Okay. Fantastic. And I'm glad we are talking about the next decade and not the next quarter. But thank you for the color.
好的。極好的。我很高興我們談論的是下一個十年,而不是下一個季度。但謝謝你的顏色。
Operator
Operator
Tom Curran, Seaport Research.
湯姆·柯倫,海港研究。
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Sticking with the Power-as-a-Service business here. For the initial 100 megawatts of capacity being delivered this quarter, Q4, would you please review the deployment timeline in its major stages? Are you still anticipating about six months from equipment delivery to first revenue out in the field? And then do you anticipate opportunities to maybe shorten that timeline as you ascend the learning curve?
堅持電力即服務業務。對於本季(第四季)交付的初始 100 兆瓦容量,您能否回顧一下其主要階段的部署時間表?您是否仍預計從設備交付到現場首次獲得收入需要大約六個月的時間?那麼,隨著學習曲線的上升,您是否預計有機會縮短這個時間表?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
So I'll take this one. It depends on the technology. Generally, from packaged recips to electron generation, six months is a good sort of average number. When you move up the scale onto the turbine side of the world, you'd probably take that to maybe -- or the larger recips, which will be in large power hauls, that's probably nine months from generation to electrons.
所以我會選擇這個。這取決於技術。一般來說,從封裝配方到電子生成,六個月是一個很好的平均時間。當你將規模擴大到渦輪機領域時,你可能會把它帶到更大的往復式發電機組,這將帶來巨大的電力輸送,從發電到電子輸送大概需要九個月的時間。
Now you can, depending on where the project is, some of these large projects are going to be interesting, because that's sort of an average as you will be doing sort of the dirt work and the building and sort of landing the generation. So some of the early generation will have a longer time to revenue generation and some of the later engines that get installed will have a shorter time. So just talking in general averages, and I think that's fairly -- it's going to be project and site-specific around that -- on average over the next five years.
現在,根據專案所在的位置,您可以參與其中,其中一些大型專案將會很有趣,因為這是一種平均水平,因為您將進行某種土方工程和建築工作,並進行某種形式的發電。因此,一些早期的引擎需要更長的時間才能產生收入,而一些後期安裝的引擎需要更短的時間才能產生收入。所以,僅從總體平均值來看,我認為這是相當公平的——這將是針對未來五年內各個項目和地點的平均值。
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Got it. And then Liberty not only has a well-deserved, consistently earned stellar reputation as a steward of capital. But I would argue on the technology side, as frequently the smartest guys in the room, trailblazers on innovation and technology adoption. I don't want to unfairly highlight sort of one to get it worked out here, but when it comes to Natron, obviously, you nailed it with being ahead of the curve on advanced nuclear and (inaudible) relationship as well as on enhanced geothermal and turbo. Natron hasn't worked out.
知道了。然後,Liberty 不僅作為資本管理者享有當之無愧的、持續贏得的卓越聲譽。但從技術方面來說,我認為房間裡最聰明的人往往是創新和技術採用的拓荒者。我不想不公平地強調其中一種來解決這個問題,但是當談到 Natron 時,顯然,你在先進核能和(聽不清)關係以及增強型地熱和渦輪方面處於領先地位。泡鹼尚未發揮作用。
Ron, I'd just be curious to hear when it comes to long duration energy storage and that longer-term potential for where you might go with batteries as part of LPI EPS fleet, how are you thinking about sodium ion technology? Do you still think that's going to be one of the likely longer-term winners? Or are you maybe pivoting to other electrochemical technologies when it comes to batteries?
羅恩,我只是好奇想聽聽,當談到長時長儲能以及電池作為 LPI EPS 車隊一部分的長期潛力時,您對鈉離子技術有何看法?您是否仍然認為這將是長期可能的贏家之一?或者,在電池方面,您會轉向其他電化學技術?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Good question. I would say that as far as the technology itself goes, still a big fan of sodium ion technology. If you think about things like the C rating and potential cycle count for a sodium ion battery, it's just awesome technology in that regard.
是的。好問題。我想說,就技術本身而言,我仍然是鈉離子技術的忠實粉絲。如果您考慮鈉離子電池的 C 額定值和潛在循環次數等因素,那麼從這方面來說,它是一項非常棒的技術。
You can dump-charge into and remove charge from those batteries at rates that are hard to match with some other technologies, and the total cycle count or lifespan for one of those batteries is meaningfully higher than for lithium-based technology. So we really do like the technology. Unfortunate the Natron situation that they just couldn't get to scale. But we'll still continue to watch for that technology to be deployed.
您可以以其他技術難以比擬的速率向這些電池中充入電荷和從中取出電荷,並且其中一個電池的總循環次數或壽命明顯高於基於鋰電池的技術。所以我們確實喜歡這項技術。不幸的是,Natron 的情況是他們無法擴大規模。但我們仍將繼續關注該技術的部署。
Of course, we use a lot of battery capacity in our world today that's present in our digi world, both on the digiPrime fleets and on the digi frac locations, we rely on lithium-based technologies there because you have a weight consideration that comes into play. You don't get the same energy density out of a sodium-based chemistry as you do out of a lithium-based chemistry. And so when weight and size are a factor, there's a reason lithium technology is the technology of choice in EVs, for example.
當然,我們今天在數位世界中使用了大量電池容量,無論是在 digiPrime 車隊還是在數位壓裂地點,我們都依賴基於鋰電池的技術,因為需要考慮重量因素。鈉基化學物質所獲得的能量密度與鋰基化學物質所獲得的能量密度不同。因此,當重量和尺寸成為一個因素時,鋰技術成為電動車的首選技術是有原因的。
And the same is true for us. Of course, we have size and space considerations when it comes to deploying batteries on our frac locations, and so we've leaned towards lithium technologies there. We're familiar with those. We have strong partnerships there. And we'll continue to leverage those partnerships as necessary, both on the core OFS space and in the power space to the (inaudible). Does that makes sense?
對我們來說也是如此。當然,在壓裂地點部署電池時,我們需要考慮尺寸和空間,因此我們傾向於使用鋰技術。我們對這些很熟悉。我們在那裡擁有強大的合作關係。我們將繼續在核心 OFS 領域和電力領域充分利用這些合作夥伴關係,(聽不清楚)。這樣有道理嗎?
But we'll continue to keep an eye on those other technologies for future opportunities as well.
但我們也會繼續關注其他技術,以尋找未來的機會。
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Very helpful. I appreciate your taking my questions.
非常有幫助。感謝您回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
Jeff LeBlanc, Tudor, Pickering, Holt.
傑夫·勒布朗、都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特。
Jeff LeBlanc - Equity Analyst
Jeff LeBlanc - Equity Analyst
I was just curious, how should we think about capital allocation between frac and LTI moving forward? We know that you previously mentioned that the base case is for no digi builds in 2026. But given the compelling opportunity in power, is there any reason this shouldn't be the case moving forward if frac prices stay at the current levels?
我只是好奇,我們該如何考慮未來 frac 和 LTI 之間的資本配置?我們知道您之前提到過,基本情況是 2026 年不會有數位建構。但考慮到執政的強大機遇,如果壓裂價格維持在當前水平,有什麼理由不繼續保持這種局面?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
So our frac business is an incredibly vibrant and great business that has great long-term cash generation ability over the next decade. And so we invest in that business, as we always have and as we always will, on the basis and the timing of the cycle, for that business. And that won't be affected at all by investments in our power business.
因此,我們的壓裂業務是一項極其活躍且偉大的業務,在未來十年內具有強大的長期現金創造能力。因此,我們會像往常一樣,根據該業務的周期基礎和時間,對該業務進行投資。這不會受到我們對電力業務的投資的影響。
We are not going to be capital limited as far as investments in these two businesses. They stand alone and they -- we will invest as makes sense for future cash generation abilities.
就這兩項業務的投資而言,我們不會受到資本限制。他們是獨立的,我們將根據未來的現金創造能力進行投資。
Jeff LeBlanc - Equity Analyst
Jeff LeBlanc - Equity Analyst
That makes sense. Thank you very much.
這很有道理。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Derek Podhaizer, Piper Sandler.
德里克波德海澤、派珀桑德勒。
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
I just wanted to go back to Saurabh's question and maybe clarify the answer. On just the type of equipment that you'll be ordering and delivering, I know initially it was the 400 megawatts, I think that was typically made up of the recips, the 2.5 to 5-megawatt units. And then we think about the incremental 100 by the end of next year and then the 600-plus, to get to over 1 gigawatt. I think you started mentioning we might get a mixture of type of assets.
我只是想回到 Saurabh 的問題並可能澄清答案。關於您將要訂購和交付的設備類型,我知道最初是 400 兆瓦,我認為這通常由 2.5 至 5 兆瓦的裝置組成。然後我們考慮到明年年底增加 100 個,然後再增加 600 多個,達到 1 千兆瓦以上。我認為您開始提到我們可能會獲得多種類型的資產。
But can you be more specific if you will continue to invest in the recip? And then if you are moving towards the turbines, I mean, how much is -- we could think about that in terms of megawatts for your deliveries?
但您能否更具體地說明您是否會繼續投資於該機構?然後,如果您要使用渦輪機,我的意思是,我們可以從兆瓦的角度來考慮您的交付量是多少?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Derek, I would say that the vast majority of this incremental capacity is also gas recip. Turbines will play a role in our world, although I think as we continue to look forward, we will still lean very heavily on the gas recip technology. If you think about, and I've said this in past calls, ensuring long-term durability in the business, bringing the best technology to the table in support of our customers, we like recip because of the heat rate.
德瑞克,我想說,這種增量容量的絕大部分也是氣體往復式的。渦輪機將在我們的世界中發揮作用,儘管我認為隨著我們繼續向前發展,我們仍然會嚴重依賴氣體往復技術。如果你考慮一下,我在過去的電話中也說過,確保業務的長期持久性,為我們的客戶提供最好的技術,我們喜歡往復式,因為它的熱效率高。
You have an opportunity under simple cycle conditions to deliver conversion of molecules to electrons at a level that is on par with the grid today, at about 45% thermal efficiency. That is impossible to achieve with a simple cycle turbine. You're going to, right out of the gate, put yourself at a disadvantage with respect to fuel burn per electron delivered.
您有機會在簡單的循環條件下將分子轉化為電子,其水平與當今電網相當,熱效率約為 45%。簡單循環渦輪機不可能實現這一點。從一開始,您就會在傳輸每個電子所消耗的燃料方面處於不利地位。
And so while we believe there is an important place for turbines in the power generation world, we talked about density as one of those attributes, we really like the gas recip technology. And you should expect to see that be a very meaningful part of our portfolio today, tomorrow, and in the years to come.
因此,雖然我們相信渦輪機在發電領域佔有重要地位,我們將密度作為其中一個屬性,但我們真的很喜歡氣體往復技術。您應該會看到,這將成為我們今天、明天以及未來幾年投資組合中非常重要的一部分。
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
That's helpful. And maybe just to clarify on that, is there any larger recips that you can go out and acquire? I mean I know the 2.5 to 5, but 10 megawatt-plus type of recips out there that you can put into your portfolio?
這很有幫助。也許只是為了澄清一下,有沒有更大的食譜你可以出去獲取?我的意思是,我知道有 2.5 到 5 兆瓦,但是有 10 兆瓦以上的類型的電力可以放入您的投資組合中嗎?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, there absolutely are. So if you think about our portfolio going forward, it is going to be -- we're going to have capacity centered around the Jenbacher unit, which is 4.3, 4.4 megawatts per unit. But you absolutely can get much bigger gas recip engines than that.
是的,絕對有。因此,如果您考慮我們未來的投資組合,那麼我們的產能將以 Jenbacher 裝置為中心,即每台裝置的產能為 4.3 至 4.4 兆瓦。但你絕對可以獲得比這大得多的燃氣往復發動機。
Michael mentioned the idea of a power haul. The Jenbachers are a packaged unit, something that we package and deliver to site, basically ready to go, save for some basic dirt work. As you start to move into that larger capacity, the 10-, 11-, 12-megawatt kind of size, those are very, very large units. Those are going to be inside of a power haul, a building that will be constructed on site, and then we'll have those installed in there.
麥可提到了電力運輸的想法。Jenbachers 是一套包裝好的設備,我們將其包裝好並運送到現場,基本上就可以使用了,只需進行一些基本的土方工作。當你開始轉向更大的容量時,10、11、12兆瓦的規模,這些都是非常非常大的單位。這些設備將被放置在電力傳輸系統內,電力傳輸系統是在現場建造的建築物內,然後我們將它們安裝在那裡。
And so as he was alluding to the different timelines for -- from delivery to power generation, it was specifically around those two different asset scales that he was he was talking. So you should expect to see both that smaller, more modular type approach in our world, along with the larger units deployed in a power haul type facility also.
因此,當他提到從交付到發電的不同時間表時,他具體談論的是這兩種不同的資產規模。因此,您應該期望在我們的世界中看到更小、更模組化的方法,以及在電力運輸類型設施中部署的更大單元。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
If you look at it, Derek, you're going to -- power blocks basically with our partners at Caterpillar, sort of the 2.5 megawatts and 25-megawatt blocks, you're going to have the larger Jenbachers and 50-megawatt blocks to deliver, then we'll have the 200-megawatt power haul, which is delivered by a number of our core partners for these larger recip engines.
德里克,如果你看一下,你將要——基本上與卡特彼勒的合作夥伴一起提供動力塊,比如 2.5 兆瓦和 25 兆瓦的動力塊,你將擁有更大的 Jenbachers 和 50 兆瓦的動力塊來交付,然後我們將擁有 200 兆瓦的電力運輸,由我們的一些核心合作夥伴為這些更大的往復式發動機提供。
And then as you go up in size after that, any very, very large installations, that's when, as Ron pointed out, you may go to a larger sale turbine solution as well as waiting for the Oklo powerhouses which would be our natural sort of large scale behind the recips once we get past 2030. Once into 2030, that will be the solution there.
然後,隨著規模的擴大,任何非常非常大的裝置,正如羅恩指出的那樣,那時,您可能會選擇更大的渦輪機解決方案,同時等待奧克洛發電站,一旦我們過了 2030 年,這將成為我們自然的大規模發電方式。一旦進入 2030 年,這將是解決方案。
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Right. Okay. That makes -- very helpful detail. And I guess for those power halls, those bigger recips, are those included in this 1 gigawatt target that you just laid out?
正確的。好的。這使得細節變得非常有用。我想,對於那些電力大廳,那些更大的接收器,是否包含在您剛剛制定的 1 千兆瓦目標中?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
We're not going into the details of exactly where it is, but they are basically all recips for the 1 gigawatt number.
我們不會詳細討論它的具體位置,但它們基本上都是 1 千兆瓦數字的複數。
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Got it. Okay. That's fair. And then a ton of questions have been asked on power, so just maybe a housekeeping one for me as far as how we should think about the fourth quarter. Obviously, we have some seasonality creeping in, third quarter was much -- was softer than expected.
知道了。好的。這很公平。然後,人們就電力問題提出了大量問題,因此,對我來說,這可能只是一個普通的問題,即我們應該如何看待第四季度。顯然,我們受到了一些季節性因素的影響,第三季的表現比預期要疲軟得多。
But how should we think about maybe top line and some of the decrementals? Should we stay at that 55% level or should we start to normalize just given kind of where we started in 3Q, where we're going in 4Q?
但是我們該如何考慮最重要的事情和一些遞減的事情呢?我們應該維持在 55% 的水平嗎?還是應該根據第三季的起點和第四季的走向開始正常化?
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Derek, I would say that at this point in time, we're anticipating just typical seasonality as really the change in cadence from Q3 to Q4. We'll see how that plays out as the quarter unfolds. But that's what we're assuming at this point in time.
德瑞克,我想說,目前,我們預期的只是典型的季節性變化,實際上是從第三季到第四季的節奏變化。我們將觀察本季的情況如何。但這就是我們目前的假設。
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Derek Podhaizer - Senior Research Analyst
Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.
知道了。非常有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Keith MacKey, RBC Capital Markets.
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Keith MacKey。
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions. First wanted to start out on that $1.5 million to $1.6 million per megawatt number. I think we've been incorporating something slightly lower than that, in the $1.3 million to $1.4 million range previously. Can you just talk about kind of what has driven the increase there? Is it varying scope of the equipment you'll be providing around these projects or is it pricing or is it a mix of both? Just curious what's really driven that.
感謝您回答我的問題。首先想從每兆瓦 150 萬美元到 160 萬美元這個數字開始。我認為我們之前一直在納入比這略低的金額,在 130 萬美元到 140 萬美元的範圍內。您能否談談是什麼原因推動了這項成長?您將為這些項目提供的設備範圍是否不同,定價是否不同,或者兩者兼而有之?我只是好奇背後的真正原因是什麼。
And ultimately, how close do you think we are to the to the end-stage determination of what these projects will actually cost once they get into the field. Is that $1.5 million to $1.6 million a 50% to 70% confidence number or is it a 70% to 85% confidence center? Just curious for some color --
最後,您認為我們距離確定這些項目投入使用後的實際成本還有多遠?150 萬美元到 160 萬美元是 50% 到 70% 的置信數字,還是 70% 到 85% 的置信中心?只是好奇一些顏色--
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Yeah. It sort of does depend on scope, Keith, kind of material. That's us taking [13, 8] generation, stepping it up to 35 and handing the electrons off, so that your scope can move. I mean, obviously, that's assuming, to some degree, at some point, most of the gas delivered to the feeds line, right? So depending on where sort of how long a gas line, whose scope that's in, how long sort of the interstate connection and the pipe. So a lot of moving parts around where those projects can ultimately come in, whose scope that ends up in. That's why those sort of numbers are there.
是的。這確實取決於範圍、基斯和材料種類。這就是我們採用 [13, 8] 代,將其提升到 35 並交出電子,這樣你的範圍就可以移動。我的意思是,顯然,這是假設,在某種程度上,在某個時候,大部分氣體被輸送到進料管線,對嗎?因此,這取決於天然氣管道的長度、範圍、州際連接和管道的長度。因此,這些專案最終會進入哪些領域以及最終會進入哪個範圍,都存在著許多變動。這就是為什麼會有這些數字。
There also are price increases, right? I mean as you can see, there is a huge amount of demand for power generation. A large portion of that is sort of built outside the country. So sort of prices are moving on a fairly regular basis and is -- when we look out, a lot of some of these prices, we're starting to look at, and discuss with our partners, supply chains out '28, '29 talking to the Oklo team about what we can do in '30. So we are talking a large a long way into the future in some of those. So the pricing will move over time.
價格也漲了嗎?我的意思是,正如你所看到的,對發電的需求是巨大的。其中很大一部分是在國外建造的。因此,價格變動相當規律,而且——當我們觀察時,我們會發現很多價格,我們開始關注並與我們的合作夥伴討論 28 年、29 年的供應鏈,與 Oklo 團隊討論我們在 30 年可以做些什麼。因此,我們正在談論其中一些遙遠的未來。因此價格會隨著時間而變動。
The great thing is when you look at the efficiency of our solution and the effectiveness of what we can do and the capital effectiveness especially, we can provide what is a grid parity or lower than group price now to these large load customers with very little inflationary need comparative to what the group is going to go up, right?
最棒的是,當您看到我們的解決方案的效率、我們所能做的有效性,尤其是資本效率時,我們可以為這些大負載客戶提供電網平價或低於集團的價格,而與集團將要上漲的價格相比,他們的通膨需求很小,對嗎?
Capacity fee is going to kind of probably inflate CPI everybody, I would say, as you talk to a grid over the next 15 years, the inflation rate of natural gas, given how successful we are on our completions business and how good our service teams are there, is going to be far lower than the general inflation rate of grid power prices, right?
容量費可能會推高每個人的 CPI,我想說,當你談論未來 15 年的電網時,考慮到我們在完工業務上的成功以及我們的服務團隊的優秀程度,天然氣的通貨膨脹率將遠低於電網電價的一般通貨膨脹率,對嗎?
So when customers sign up with us now, they're getting at-grid or lower-than-grid pricing. And if they reject forward 15 years, they're going to be significantly below what the grid pricing has been. So it's a compelling, compelling technological and economic solution for these folks.
因此,當客戶現在與我們簽約時,他們將獲得電網價格或低於電網價格。如果他們拒絕未來 15 年的計劃,那麼他們的定價將大大低於目前的電網定價。所以對於這些人來說,這是一個令人信服的、引人注目的技術和經濟解決方案。
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Yeah. Got it. I appreciate the color on that. Maybe if I could just circle back to Derek's question about Q4. I understand the guidance there for normal seasonality, although it tends to be an industry where I find that normal seasonality is hardly normal.
是的。知道了。我很欣賞它的色彩。也許我可以回到 Derek 關於 Q4 的問題。我理解那裡關於正常季節性的指導,儘管我發現這個行業的正常季節性並不正常。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
We might agree.
我們或許會同意。
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Yeah. So if we were to put just some general guidepost around that, like if I look at the last two years, the revenue is down 12%, down 17% in '23 and '24, respectively, for Q4, like, is that sort of the range we should be thinking about for Q4 this year with kind of a similar level of decremental? Or is there anything specific in this year that might make it different from those prior years?
是的。因此,如果我們只是對此提出一些一般性的指導,例如,如果我看一下過去兩年,第四季度的收入分別下降了 12%、23 年下降了 17%、24 年下降了 17%,那麼,這是否是我們應該考慮今年第四季的類似幅度的下降?或者今年有什麼特別之處可能與往年有所不同嗎?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
No, I think that's probably the top end. I think we get into a normal seasonality, which is lower than the last two years. But that's probably the top end of what you would model. Activity-based decrementals on that, yeah.
不,我認為那可能是最高端的。我認為我們進入了正常的季節性,比過去兩年要低。但這可能是您所建模的最高端。是的,基於活動的遞減。
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Keith Mackey - Analyst
Okay. Got it. No, I appreciate that color. Thanks very much.
好的。知道了。不,我很欣賞那個顏色。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Eddie Kim, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的 Eddie Kim。
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Just wanted to touch on that additional capacity of 600 megawatts. Just wanted to clarify how much of that 600 megawatts is secured or how much you've ordered versus how much of it you're in advanced discussions for.
我只是想談一下 600 兆瓦的額外容量。只是想澄清一下這 600 兆瓦中有多少是已經確定的,或者有多少是你們已經訂購的,以及有多少是你們正在進行深入討論的。
And secondarily, just your confidence level in being able to deliver that full 1 gigawatt capacity by the end of 2027. We've heard a lot of OEMs are -- they're all sold out. So just curious, your confidence level in being able to deliver that on time.
其次,您對 2027 年底達到 1 千兆瓦容量的信心程度如何。我們聽說很多 OEM 都已經賣完了。所以我只是好奇,您對能夠準時交付的信心程度如何。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Yeah, very -- we have unique relationships. Obviously, these are a lot of the same players that we've -- north of $5 billion to work with over the last 12 years, right? So we have unique relationships with these folks. So very, very confident.
是的,非常——我們的關係很獨特。顯然,這些參與者很多都是我們過去 12 年來與之合作過的——花費超過 50 億美元,對吧?因此我們與這些人有著獨特的關係。非常非常有信心。
Supply chains, we're clarifying some of the bits and pieces of some parts of those megawatts at the moment. But yeah, very confident that it will all be delivered. Now that will be landed. That's not generating, that will be landed, right? But that's the key portion of what's available. So it can be then being sort of like starting to work (inaudible).
供應鏈,我們目前正在澄清這些兆瓦部分的一些細節。但是的,我非常有信心一切都會實現。現在它就要落地了。那不是發電,那會落地,對吧?但這是可用資源的關鍵部分。所以這有點像是開始工作(聽不清楚)。
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Understood. And then just in terms of that 600 megawatts, is all of that under -- in advanced discussions right now or have you actually secured some part of that?
明白了。那麼就那 600 兆瓦而言,現在是否都在進行深入討論,還是你們已經實際獲得了其中的一部分?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
It's all advance -- as far as the supply chain, the delivery of it?
就供應鏈和交付而言,一切都是先進的嗎?
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Just in terms of what you've ordered.
就您所訂購的而言。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
The vast majority.
絕大多數。
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Eddie Kim - Analyst
The vast majority of the 600-megawatt -- incremental 600 megawatts is ordered. Okay. Understood.
600 兆瓦的增量發電量絕大多數都已訂購。好的。明白了。
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Correct.
正確的。
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Okay. Great. My follow up is just on Oklo. First, I believe you had a small equity stake in Oklo. Could you just remind us how big that stake is? And with regards to the collaboration agreement, what are you currently contemplating in terms of the number of megawatts you'll be allocating or ring-fencing for that collaboration? And when do you think is the earliest you would see a deployment of those assets?
好的。偉大的。我的後續行動僅針對奧克洛。首先,我相信您在 Oklo 擁有少量股權。您能否提醒我們這個賭注有多大?關於合作協議,您目前考慮為該合作分配或預留多少兆瓦電力?您認為最早什麼時候會看到這些資產的部署?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
So sort of our investment in Oklo, I think you said is in our queue, you have the details around it, and you'll see that we have been monetizing some of it. And actually just moving that straight into deposits on power generation, which, again, I think our long-term power generation contracts and context with the hyperscalers, and a large number of those will eventually include the inclusion of -- potentially inclusion of [SMRs], maybe not on the same specific sites, but with the same customers, right?
所以,我想您說過,我們對奧克洛的投資已經在我們的計劃中,您掌握了相關細節,而且您會看到我們已經將其中一部分貨幣化了。實際上,只是將其直接轉移到發電押金中,我再次認為,我們與超大規模企業簽訂的長期發電合約和背景,以及其中很大一部分最終將包括——可能包括 [SMR],也許不在相同的特定站點,但與相同的客戶,對嗎?
But you think the vast majority, 70% of the sort of the IT infrastructure, data center is going to be built by six or seven folks, right, using 10 or 12 developers to do that work for them. So the combination of ourselves at Oklo will be involved in a lot of projects together. We'll see how that goes.
但是您認為絕大多數(70%)的 IT 基礎設施、資料中心將由六到七個人構建,使用 10 或 12 名開發人員為他們完成這項工作。因此,我們奧克洛的團隊將共同參與許多專案。我們將拭目以待。
But yeah, was quite exciting. I was at the groundbreaking of their national lab generator, and we're hoping to see electrons flowing from that at the early part of '28, I believe. So I think the DOE has been very, very helpful with the development of nuclear.
但是是的,非常令人興奮。我參加了他們國家實驗室發電機的奠基儀式,我相信我們希望在 28 年初看到電子從中流出。所以我認為美國能源部對核能發展提供了非常大的幫助。
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Eddie Kim - Analyst
Great. Thank you, Michael.
偉大的。謝謝你,麥可。
Operator
Operator
Dan Kutz, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的丹·庫茨。
Daniel Kutz - Analyst
Daniel Kutz - Analyst
So Michael, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think earlier all the color that you gave around the financing options, that was all for the incremental 600 megawatts. So A, correct me if that's wrong.
所以邁克爾,如果我錯了,請糾正我,但我認為之前你給出的有關融資選擇的所有細節都是為了增加 600 兆瓦。所以 A,如果錯了請糾正我。
And B, I just wanted to confirm for the initial 400 megawatts that you guys ordered, is the plan still that that's all going to be kind of financed organically using the revolver and using organic cash or, I guess, in a scenario where maybe if things played out worse than contemplated in the near term here, and how would you think about financing options for the initial 400 megawatts if kind of the existing capital structure needed a little bit of extra capital to kind of get those to the finish line?
B,我只是想確認一下,對於你們訂購的最初 400 兆瓦,計劃是否仍然全部使用循環信貸和有機現金進行有機融資,或者,我想,如果情況可能比短期內預想的更糟,如果現有的資本結構需要一點額外的資本來實現這些目標,您會如何考慮最初 400 兆瓦的融資選擇?
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer
Yeah. Hang on, I can answer. All right. So I don't think you should think of the initial 400, the next 600. I think you need to think about this as a building of an ongoing business, right, holistically. We will fund sort of the early-stage deposits, the movement of supply chain, until those long lead time equipment are assigned to a signed ESA. When you're assigned to a signed ESA, now it could be megawatt number 98 or megawatt number 105, whichever would be [that is].
是的。稍等一下,我可以回答。好的。所以我認為你不應該考慮最初的 400 和接下來的 600。我認為你需要將其視為一個持續業務的構建,從整體上來說。我們將為早期存款、供應鏈的流動提供資金,直到這些長交貨期設備被分配給簽署的 ESA。當你被分配到一個已簽署的 ESA 時,它可能是 98 兆瓦或 105 兆瓦,以其中之一為準[那是]。
The assigned to an ESA, dropped down into a project and then funded separately. So really, what you're looking at there, about 30% of that project will be funded by equity, either ours or potentially in partnership. And so when you look at it, it's going to be an ongoing stream, a development stream.
將其分配給 ESA,然後放入一個專案中,然後單獨資助。所以實際上,你所看到的,該項目約 30% 將由股權資助,無論是我們的還是潛在的合作夥伴的。因此,當您觀察它時,它將是一個持續的流,一個發展流。
You've got to remember, what we're doing here is we're building a company for decades, a generational power generation company with strong 15-plus year cash flows that are going to be building out and exponentially additive as we go through into the future. So this is something that is being built brick by brick by brick. So I think that's the key way to think about it that.
你必須記住,我們在這裡所做的是建立一家擁有數十年歷史的公司,一家擁有超過 15 年強勁現金流的發電公司,隨著我們走向未來,這些現金流將不斷增長並呈指數級增長。所以,這是正在一磚一瓦建造的事情。所以我認為這是思考這個問題的關鍵方法。
Daniel Kutz - Analyst
Daniel Kutz - Analyst
Great. That's really helpful. And then I don't know, maybe for Ron or either of you, but I guess I'm just thinking about some of the puts and takes on completion services or frac profitability per fleet, and there are kind of some puts and takes to think through, I mean, you guys have flagged pricing pressure, and then also, I feel like Liberty tends to be less reactive in kind of scaling up and down the cost structure in up or down cycles, but rather kind of maintains the high-quality labor force and the overall high-quality business.
偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後我不知道,也許對羅恩或你們任何一個人來說都是如此,但我想我只是在考慮一些完成服務或每個車隊的壓裂盈利能力的利弊,還有一些需要考慮的利弊,我的意思是,你們已經標記了定價壓力,然後,我覺得 Liberty 在上升或下降週期中對成本結構的擴大和縮小反應性較弱,而是保持高質量的勞動力和整體的業務。
But I guess there's some offsets you guys have flagged as well, growing fleet size and horsepower per fleet. At least this year, the fleet mix improved with the incremental (inaudible) frac deliveries, efficiencies are improving. So yeah, maybe you could just unpack what you've seen in kind of profitability curve fleet and how you think that trends moving forward.
但我想你們也已經標記了一些抵消因素,即增加車隊規模和每支車隊的馬力。至少今年,隨著壓裂交付量的增加(聽不清楚),船隊組合得到了改善,效率也在提高。是的,也許您可以解讀一下您在獲利曲線車隊中所看到的情況,以及您認為未來的趨勢如何。
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Certainly, Dan. We -- I would start by saying that, of course, we view this business just like Michael talked about the power business. This is -- we have a long-term view on this. So no, of course, we don't react quarterly to ups and downs. People are our most important asset. They are the reason we are as successful as we are. And so we don't make changes in head count because of what we view as a short-term blip in activity.
當然,丹。我們——我首先要說的是,我們當然以邁克爾談論電力業務的方式看待這項業務。這是——我們對此有一個長遠的眼光。所以,當然,我們不會對季度的起伏做出反應。人才是我們最重要的資產。他們是我們如此成功的原因。因此,我們不會因為我們認為的短期活動波動而改變員工人數。
I think we are very confident in the long-term viability of the business, in the long-term outlook for oil and gas demand, and the role that Liberty will play in delivering that. So we take a long-term view to that piece of our business as well and particularly the people that are involved in that business.
我認為我們對該業務的長期可行性、石油和天然氣需求的長期前景以及 Liberty 在實現這一目標方面將發揮的作用非常有信心。因此,我們也對我們業務的這一部分,特別是參與該業務的人員,採取長遠的眼光。
There are, as you say, some puts and takes. Of course, we are in an industry that has competitors, and unfortunately, when we have companies that find white space on their calendar, the way they choose to defend market share is with price. And we're not immune to that, of course. Our customers are aware of where the market is. And so that ultimately leads to conversations that have us needing to adjust our pricing in line with the market.
正如你所說,存在一些得失。當然,我們所處的行業存在著競爭對手,不幸的是,當我們的公司在日程表上發現空白時,他們選擇用價格來捍衛市場份額。當然,我們也無法倖免。我們的客戶知道市場在哪裡。因此,這最終引發了我們需要根據市場調整定價的討論。
That said, we are still fully utilized today. That is a testament to the people that are in the field, the technology that they have to work with, the supply chain, and other things that support them. And we expect that to continue. And we'll navigate the pricing headwinds in the near term. And when things get better, we will be, as we always have been in the past, the best positioned company to take advantage of that going forward.
話雖如此,我們今天仍然得到了充分利用。這證明了該領域的人員、他們所使用的技術、供應鏈以及其他支持他們的事物。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。我們將在短期內克服定價方面的不利因素。當情況好轉時,我們將像過去一樣,成為最有能力利用這一優勢向前發展的公司。
Daniel Kutz - Analyst
Daniel Kutz - Analyst
Awesome. Thank you, both, very much.
驚人的。非常感謝你們兩位。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ron Gusek for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Ron Gusek 做結束語。
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ron Gusek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Bailey. We pride ourselves on delivering efficiency, on maximizing the effective utilization of the assets we deploy to the field, with the goal of delivering the lowest total cost of completions for our customers and ensuring that a barrel of oil or Mcf of gas produced here in North America remains competitive on the global stage.
謝謝你,貝利。我們以提供高效服務、最大限度有效利用部署到油田的資產而自豪,目標是為客戶提供最低的完井總成本,並確保北美生產的每桶石油或每千立方英尺天然氣在全球舞台上保持競爭力。
Delivering the highest levels of efficiency means ensuring we have the best of everything on location: the best people, the best technology, the best company to deliver each individual service. We've always said that Liberty wants to be the provider of frac, wireline, and logistics on any well site, but only if we are the best choice in each of these. If not, then take what we are best at and pair us with the best partners for the others. Accepting mediocrity is just bad business, bad for competitiveness, bad for consumers, and bad for investors.
實現最高水準的效率意味著確保我們擁有最好的一切:最好的人才、最好的技術、提供每項服務的最佳公司。我們一直說,Liberty 希望成為任何井場的壓裂、電纜和物流提供商,但前提是我們在每項服務中都是最佳選擇。如果沒有,那麼就發揮我們最擅長的領域,並為其他領域尋找最合適的合作夥伴。接受平庸對企業來說是件壞事,不利於競爭力,不利於消費者,也不利於投資人。
Unfortunately, the current punitive tariff policies are doing just that. Tariffs make the economy less efficient. They are a path to mediocrity, not excellence. They raise prices, cut profits, increase unemployment, diminish productivity, and slow economic growth. North America is a leader in energy production, energy that the world desperately needs.
不幸的是,目前的懲罰性關稅政策正在產生這樣的效果。關稅降低了經濟效率。這是一條通往平庸而非卓越的道路。它們提高價格、削減利潤、增加失業率、降低生產力並減緩經濟成長。北美是能源生產的領先者,而能源正是世界所急需的。
Unfortunately, tariffs on steel and aluminum products are driving up the cost of that production, impacting competitiveness on the global stage, potentially leading to a loss of market share. How is that a positive income for either the US or our trading partners?
不幸的是,鋼鐵和鋁產品的關稅推高了生產成本,影響了全球競爭力,並可能導致市場份額的損失。這對美國或我們的貿易夥伴來說怎麼會是正收入呢?
The Secretary of Energy has called the race for AI dominance our next Manhattan Project. Winning this race requires access to massive amounts of new power generation capacity and associated hardware, along with many other sophisticated components. Much of this is currently made overseas, and much of it is now subject to tariffs.
能源部長稱人工智慧主導的競賽是我們的下一個曼哈頓計畫。要贏得這場競賽,需要獲得大量新的發電能力和相關硬件,以及許多其他複雜的組件。目前,這些產品大部分是在海外生產的,而且其中許多現在都要繳關稅。
Is this a path to winning a race the administration has identified is so critical to our nation's future? I would argue, no. It's a path to mediocrity at best. I hope we quickly pivot to a different course, one that puts us firmly on the path to energy and AI dominance here in the US. Thanks for joining us on the call today.
這是否是政府認為的對我們國家的未來至關重要的贏得競選的途徑?我認為不是。這充其量是一條通往平庸的道路。我希望我們能夠迅速轉向不同的方向,讓我們在美國能源和人工智慧領域堅定地走上主導地位的道路。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。