Lamar Advertising Co (LAMR) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Everyone, we now have Sean Reilly and Keith Istre in conference. Please be aware that each of your lines is in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of the Company's presentation, we will open the floor for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

In the course of this discussion, Lamar may make forward-looking statements regarding the Company, including statements about its future financial performance, strategic goals and plans. All forward-looking statements, including statements with respect to Lamar's consideration of an election to Real Estate Investment Trust status, involve risks, uncertainties, and contingencies, many of which are beyond Lamar's control and which may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. Lamar has identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this call and the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K as updated by its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Lamar refers you to those documents.

Lamar's first quarter 2013 earnings release, which contains information required by Regulation G regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures, was furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K this morning and is available on Lamar's website, www.Lamar.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Reilly. Mr. Reilly, you may begin.

Thank you, Tiffany.

And welcome, everyone, to our discussion of first quarter results. Kevin will not be on the call, as he is out of the country. I'll begin with a quick comment on our endeavors to seek REIT status. We don't have a substantive update today, as we continue to await final IRS response to our PLR request. As you'll recall, we filed in November of last year and were told to expect it in three to six months. We're now at the outer edge of that time horizon. So hopefully it will be sooner rather than later. When we do get it, we will thoroughly analyze it and communicate its ramifications to the market as soon as possible.

I'll now turn it over to Keith and he'll discuss the financial results.

Good morning, everyone.

Just a couple of highlights from the quarter. You saw from my press release our revenue came in at $283.5 million. We had guided to a range of $282 million to $285 million, so we were right in the midpoint of that range, on a pro forma growth basis up 2.4%. The nice surprise in the quarter was that the direct and G&A expenses before corporate overhead was exactly flat or even with last year's first quarter. Absolutely no growth whatsoever.

There's a couple of things that created that dynamic. One was we have gone to a state-of-the-art illumination system for all of our static billboards and we are still rolling that out. I had mentioned it on a call last year, but our illumination expense was down $0.75 million in the quarter due to that technology. And in addition, we used to own our own printing facilities and at the end of last year we divested those and went under contract with a national supplier for all of our advertising copy that we put up on the boards for the customers, and that resulted in a first quarter savings of $1 million as well.

Corporate expenses were up about $1 million. As I told you last quarter, we were going to be incurring some REIT expenses at the corporate level, about $250,000 of that $1 million dollar increase was REIT-related and the other -- another $200,000 was legal and accounting related to two acquisitions that we did in the fourth quarter of last year. All of that being said, that resulted in the EBITDA pro forma growth of 5.2% and our margins were 39% for the quarter, and that is the best first quarter results as far as our margins since the first quarter of 2008.

With that, I'll put it back to Sean.

Great. Thanks, Keith.

So as Keith mentioned on the operating side, it's pretty much steady as she goes. Our team continues to run an extremely tight ship on the expense side. It should continue throughout the year. We'll continue to see the benefits of savings on illumination, and of course our outsourcing of our printing operation should, again, continue to show benefits through the course of the year.

Let me kickoff the familiar internal stats and then I'll open it up for questions. Let me start with digital. As of today, we have 1,750 digital units in the air, 972 bulletins and 778 posters. We put up 42 in Q1, so we are pacing slightly ahead of plan in terms of our digital deployment. And it looks like we'll end up the year with about 150 new digital units in the year. Some -- we've been fortunate on the regulatory front of late. And when you have these regulatory wins, sometimes it's you that are losing. So we went ahead and accelerated our pace of deployment because of those regulatory wins.

On the same board, digital revenue side, slightly disappointing. We came in Q1 at minus 2.7%, primarily at the tail end of the quarter. Things got a little soft in March. We are reading the tea leaves into May and June and we think we're seeing some improvement. So hopefully when we get together next, you'll see that number turning the other way.

On the traditional side, rate and occupancy; posters occupancy Q1 2013, 63% versus 61% Q1 2012, for an increase of 2%. For bulletins, Q1 2013 occupancy 75% versus Q1 2012 of 74%. On posters, rate Q1 2013, $418 average rate per panel versus Q1 2012 of $415 average rate per panel. And on bulletins, Q1 2013, $1,082 average rate per panel versus Q1 2012 of $1,083, or essentially flat on bulletin rate. Interestingly, the strength in Q1 came from the national book. The National book of business was up 5.6% in Q1 versus 1.4% for the Local book of business.

On the major categories, couple of categories of note, top category restaurants, which is 13% of our business, was up 7% in Q1. Retail, which is 11% of our book, was up 8% in Q1. And automotive, which has moved from 6% of our book last year to 7% of our book this year, was up 11% in Q1. So, we are appreciating the growing momentum in the automotive category.

We had mentioned real estate in -- on our last call and it's continuing to show gradual improvement. In fact, for March and April real estate was up 2% to 3%. And that's the first positive numbers we've seen in that category for quite sometime, and happy to see gradual recovery there. Hotel/motel remains challenged. Q1 it was down 7%. So with that, Tiffany, we're happy to open it up for questions.

Marci Ryvicker, Wells Fargo.

Thanks. Looking at your stock today, I guess the market's telling us there is concern about the private letter ruling. And I know, Sean, you mentioned at the beginning that hopefully they will get it sooner rather than later. Do you still feel good that digital will be included? And has there been any conversation with the IRS that would lead you to believe there are some issues, and that's why it's being held up?

We really don't have a substantive update in that regard, Marci. We get some smoke signals from our lawyers and accountants on process, and those smoke signals are telling us that the sooner is probably to be expected than the later in terms of timing. But it's, you know, not the most transparent of processes on the substantive side. So we really don't have anything to pass on other than what we have said. And I know everybody's anxious. We're all anxious. As soon as we get it, we'll get with everybody.

In terms of just the process we've seen other non-traditional REIT conversions in some companies who have done -- they've submitted the filings to the SEC, they have communicated the E&P distribution and the AFFO before they received the private letter ruling. Is it reasonable to assume that once you get this ruling that the other steps in this process are in place where we would get communication rather quickly? Because I think there's a fear that you're going to get the private letter ruling and then we're going to have to wait a significant amount of time until the next step happens, that might miss you -- cause you to miss a January 1, 2014 conversion time.

I mean, we haven't heard anything that leads us to believe we're behind on our timetable. The -- I think the discussion around the E&P distribution and divining what our AFFO is going look like for 2014, is probably a discussion that happens in the July-August time horizon. We've sent some indications to the market that the E&P distribution is going to be nominal. We haven't put a fine pencil on that yet. But I think our comments in that regard have been that it's going to be either zero or nominal on the E&P side. So, you know, I don't think we'll be talking about calcing AFFO in June-July, but I think it's reasonable to say August-September time horizon.

Okay, and I just have one follow-up for Keith. Non-cash comp in the first quarter, or [favlun 23,] was pretty high. Any comment on that and what we can expect going forward?

It should be relatively immaterial going forward. It was much higher because we issued options in the first quarter. So it will be -- actually, what will it be the second quarter?

It would be $32 million for the year.

Okay. $32 million for the year is what it will be.

Perfect. Thank you.

Okay.

Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley.

Thanks. Good morning. Could you weigh in on digital and how you're thinking about the balance of inventory and price? I know you mentioned that March got a little soft and you expect to see a rebound. But you've also, I think, made the decision to accelerate your digital build-out. So just curious if you could give us an update on how you're thinking about managing the supply side?

Sure.

And then on that point, any update, guys, on the CapEx outlook for the year since digital boards sound like they will be a little higher than what you thought? I don't know if that's being redeployed from other parts of the budget.

I don't think it's material. I think we guided to $130 million, and it might come in around $150 million for the year. So I'm not anticipating a big difference on our total CapEx budget, which we laid out in the $90 million to $100 million range.

Okay.

Yes, it's a little, I guess, counterintuitive if we accelerate it a little in the first quarter. And in looking at the markets that received digitals, there are really two buckets that it falls into. As you know, we rely on our local general managers to keep their finger on the demand pulse. And we have some markets where, because of regulatory reasons, their digital penetration is still in the single digits and they feel like they can use some more, given local demand. So there's a little bit of that going on.

And then the other thing that happens is, when you have a regulatory win, it often has a timetable attached to it. To get a digital right, if you don't use it, you lose it. So we are in some cases deploying a little, maybe a little in advance of market demand, just because you'll never get that right again.

Okay.

So that's the dynamic that's going on. In general, we still believe that we have some markets where we're a little ahead of market demand and we're trying to throttle back a little bit.

Okay, and then just quickly, on the national strength, I didn't know if telecom was a part of that? Last year that was a noisy vertical and a headwind a bit. But I thought you sounded like you felt better about that piece of the business. I wanted to see if that was a driver.

It's interesting, we've got some good business from AT&T. As a matter of fact, in the first quarter of last year AT&T dropped out of our top-10 customer list and they are now back in it. So that's the good news. But, you know, customers come and go and I'm looking at our top 10 and US Cellular was in it first quarter of last year, and they're not in it this year. In talking with John Miller, telecom was steady in the first quarter. The real drivers of national in the first quarter were fast food, beverage, gaming and automotive. Those were the national drivers.

Thank you.

Yes.

James Dix, Wedbush Securities.

Good morning, guys. Just a couple things. First, do you have the same-store or same-board, rather, digital growth in the quarter? And then just what the reported digital revenue was for the full quarter? And then I had two others, but I'll just take them in turn.

Yes. For the same unit, as I mentioned, was 2.7%. The total growth included new units. I don't have them in front of me, but I'm sure somebody will have it and give it to me. And then the actual? Okay, got it. So digital posters, the actual that includes new units was up 11.5%. And bulletins were up 9.5%.

Okay. And do you actually have the dollar figure total for digital in the quarter?

About $40 million.

About $40 million.

Great. Okay. That's pretty big. And then secondly, do you have any sense for your OpEx, operating expense growth outlook for the second quarter, Keith, just given the experience you saw in the first quarter, with a little of the out-performance there? Should we be looking for maybe a little bit on the lower end, more in that 2% range or --

That's what we're hoping. You know, we're hoping it comes in flat again. I mean, we should continue to experience some savings from the two categories that I mentioned. But at some point in the year they will begin to lap last year's numbers. But we're hoping that the second quarter would be low singles or if we're lucky, flat again.

Yes, you know, as I reflect on that performance, one thing I feel good about is we didn't take it out, it's not coming out of our payroll, our folks. We did give an across-the-board [3]% raise this year. So where we're finding the productivity increases again are in places that are real and sustainable and, again, sort of in that illumination category and in the materials print category.

Okay, great. And then one last one. Assuming you do get, you know, a favorable ruling and can go forward with your REIT conversion, would that change your posture regarding doing acquisitions either in the mom-and-pop category or maybe even something bigger like the assets of one of the other major players? Just because you potentially have a currency that would become more valuable? Thanks.

We've been studying up on REITs in other industries. And that can be the case. I've noticed that first movers in the non-traditional REIT space can sometimes enjoy an acquisition advantage. So, you know, we'll just have to see. We believe that our balance sheet when we turn the corner next year is going to be superbly positioned as we take out the higher coupon senior secureds and refinance our senior facility. You're going to see a balance sheet that's ready to go.

Great, and that would -- that could potentially include something bigger as opposed to just mom-and-pops, do you think?

You know, I don't know what your definition of big is, but there's, there's a handful --

I don't know. It's something that might begin with a C.

Yes, well you know, they have got -- they are on their own path, glide path to REIT status. You know, there's -- in general, our strategy dove tails with being a REIT, in terms of what we would be looking at. And that would be high quality, traditional out-of-home assets, ie posters and bulletins, not necessarily the stuff that's non-REIT qualified in the domestic US. And if you survey the landscape, there's a handful that fit that criteria that are of high quality and medium size.

Okay. Great. Thanks very much, Sean.

Alexia Quadrani, JPMorgan.

Thank you. Could you just give us a little bit more color on the relative softness in the local advertising trends in the quarter? Was it one category, was it just sort of general malaise in that area? I guess any color you can give would be helpful.

We've been telling this story for a while. Our top 10 categories of business tend to show relative strength. For example, in Q1 if you added up all our top 10, which is 77% of our Business, they were up 5% in the quarter. You know, that kind of tells me that a little bit of the GDP drag that everybody was talking about in the fourth quarter and possibly into the first quarter may have hit Main Street a little bit. Looking forward, like I said, in May and June, if we're reading the tea leaves correctly, we're seeing relative strength. Hopefully that's Main Street, USA.

And how much of the -- sounds like a fair amount of the auto goes into the national play for you. Is there any color on how much of your auto exposure is more locally focused?

Actually, the bulk of it is local. It tends to be local dealers. So on the national book, the relative strength of auto is a lot of small numbers. The bulk of our Auto business is local dealers.

So that segment, even on a local level, is very strong for you? It's just everything else that hasn't quite made it?

Yes, it's categories 11 through 30.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Yes.

Eric Handler, MKM partners.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. You know, just looking at your occupancy rates and your pricing, pricing and occupancy for a while has been pretty stagnant. As you think about the leverage you can pull to maybe stimulate demand or, you know, what leverage do you possibly have with people who have been very steady raising pricing a little bit?

It's -- you know, in an extremely low interest rate environment, where people are getting, you know, 0.0006% on their CDs, it's a difficult conversation to talk about aggressively going after rate with long-term renewals because they are all living in that same world. So traditionally for us, a little bit of inflation has been a good thing. And we tend to outperform in an inflationary environment. So I think what we're going to need is a little macro help.

Okay, great. Thank you.

Herbert Davis, Wells Fargo Securities.

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Thanks for detailing us on your approach to the capital structure going forward, rather leverage. I wanted to ask a question about the long-term capital structure, assuming the REIT conversion goes through. Is a credit facility still part of the conversation for the longer term? And then any change on timing in terms of how you might look to refinance those 9.75%?

Yes, the 9.75% are callable at a reasonable price in the fourth quarter. So, I think we're looking at a November-December event. We should probably combine that with a rework of our whole facility. You know, we've got, what, about $300 million, got about $400 million out in our A facility and a little tail on the Bs. So it probably makes sense to wrap that whole thing.

Now, whether it's a traditional bank facility or some sort of securitization or some sort of long-term senior secured offering, you know, we'll just have to wait until we get there and we'll pick the right door. But in general, philosophically, it seems to me that given a -- the requirements of a hefty distribution once you become a REIT, it makes sense to be as long as possible, with as distribution-friendly amortizations as you can layer in. So, I don't know if that answers your question, but that's where our head is.

It does. Okay. That definitely helps. Thanks for the color.

And then another question on M&A. You mentioned a handful, quote-unquote, that fit your criteria. What's the environment from the seller's perspective? Is there any urgency for them, now that the industry's moving, you know, more towards a REIT structure or digital CapEx? Is that an impediment to them operating longer term?

Well, we've had a few smaller, independent, these are immaterial. These are deals in the sort of $20 million range that our phone has started ringing and with their -- they have obviously seen the multiple expansion that we've enjoyed. And they have also ridden through some pretty tough times. And so we have noticed the phone ringing. It is generally independents that have focused their bulletin operations in middle markets in a very concerted way.

And then the world got tough and they rode it out, and now they are seeing a little light at the end of the tunnel and they have given us a call. So, we've got a few of those going on. And we typically don't make a big deal out of them because they are not hugely material. But there's a few of them.

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. Mr. Reilly, it looks like we have no further questions at this time.

Great. Well, I look forward to our next call and hopefully it will be about us becoming a REIT very shortly. Thanks, everybody.

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time.