Lamar Advertising Co (LAMR) 2011 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Excuse me everyone, we now have Kevin Reilly, Sean Reilly, and Keith Istre in conference. Please be aware that each of your lines is in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of the Company's presentation, we will open the floor for questions.

(Operator instructions.)

In the course of this discussion, Lamar may make forward looking statements regarding the company, including statements about its future financial performance, strategic goals, and plans. Lamar has identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this call and the Company's reports and forms 10-K and 10-Q, and the registration statements that Lamar files with the SEC from time to time. Lamar refers you to those documents. Lamar's second quarter 2011 earnings release, which contains the information required by regulation G, was furnished to the SEC on a form 8-K this morning, and is available on Lamar's website at www.lamar.com.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin Reilly. Mr. Reilly you may begin.

Thank you Chantel. I want to welcome everyone to our quarterly conference call. As is our custom, Management will make some brief comments and then we'll turn the call over for Q&A.

0.8% GDP growth didn't help much, but you can't sugarcoat weak performance and weak guidance. We had an exceptionally tough time closing business in the month for the month, especially with our smallest customers. That leads me to believe there still is a lack of conviction out there among our local customers.

So, until demand there bounces back, we will continue to manage our expenses and our balance sheet accordingly. Of course, one bright spot throughout the year, and we expect going forward, is our digital efforts, and we do expect good things there.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Keith Istre our CFO.

Okay, welcome everybody. Just couple of quick comments.

As you know, we guided to approximately $296 million in revenue for Q2. You saw we came in at $293 million and some change, so we were obviously a little light and that's disappointing. Sean will get more into the details of what drove that.

But accordingly, based on our bookings and our Q2 performance, our guidance for Q3 revenue is identical to what our actual was for Q2, and that's $293 million, which is up 2%. In our fiscal years, our Q2 and Q3 revenues on a pro forma basis are pretty much identical. FYI, our Q3 pro forma revenue for last year is identical to our last year's Q2 pro forma revenue, which we show in our press release that you have.

The only other comment is on our expense growth. Our consolidated expenses, including corporate overhead, were up 2.2%. That's on an actual-to-actual basis, if you pro forma-ed in some of the benefit costs that weren't there last year, we would be up about 1%. So for the rest of the year, we do expect our expense growth to remain in the low single digits.

Sean?

Thanks Keith.

I'll hit some of the highlights, and also point out some areas of weakness. On the highlights, Keith mentioned expense controls, obviously we saw that the economic tailwinds weren't as strong as we had hoped, and we begin to manage expenses accordingly, and will continue to do that.

On the digital front, as Kevin mentioned, we've got a lot confidence in how are doing on the digital front. As of the end of July, we had 674 bulletins in the air and 629 posters in the air, for a total of 1303 units. That's an increase of 134 units since we announced our goal to getting 300 in the air last November. We were slowed down a little bit by the winds of the weather in the first half. I estimate now that we'll end the year with approximately 250 additional units and the air, since we announced that goal. So we may come up a tad short, not because we don't want to put more in the air, but we're getting them up as fast as we're physically able.

Digital has grown to 13% of our book of business. It was up 15% in the first half of the year. So again, that indicates to us that we need to keep petal to the metal when it comes to growing our digital footprint.

Rate and occupancy stats for Q2 -- we are in an environment now where it's very difficult to push rate with our local customers. That showed up in the rate statistics. Q2 2011 average poster rate of $437. Q2 2010 average poster rate of $431, or an increase of only 1%. On the bulletin side, Q2 2011 average rate $1,112 versus Q2 2010 $1,111 or absolutely flat. And that's a little bit of a disappointing -- and I think reflects the economic environment.

On the occupancy side, we continue to see a little bit of struggle on the poster side of our business. Q2 2010 occupancy was 73%, Q2 2011 occupancy was 72%. The news is a little better on the bulletin side. Occupancy is up 3 points on the bulletin side. Q2 2010 occupancy of 74%, Q2 2011 occupancy of 77%.

Other than the general economic sluggishness, the story in Q2 was also one of a sort of disappointing performance on the national front. Our national book of business actually declined 1% in Q2. That was a bit of a surprise to us. Local was up 2.8% in Q2, national was down 1%, and that got us to the pro forma goal that we reported.

That national performance seems to be carrying into the third quarter. At best, national will be flat and it could be a mirror of the second quarter, down 1%, so that seems to be (technical difficulty.)

On our top 10 advertisers and top 10 categories, nothing really new to report. Auto was up 10% in Q2, was up in the 18% for Q1, looks to be up the 5%-ish for Q3, so holding its own. Of categories that are not holding their own, the story there is much the same, as we reported on our last call. Were still struggling in the hotel-motel category, down almost 10%, and were still struggling in real estate, again down almost 10%. So that's the story on the verticals.

And we're happy to answer questions. Chantel?

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we would like to open the floor for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Our first question will come from Marci Ryvicker, Wells Fargo.

Thanks. There's been some investor concern that the digital boards are cannibalizing the rest of the business. So, Sean, you sound very confident in digital. How can you make investors listening to this call also comfortable and confident that cannibalization is not occurring more than you had already expected?

The first thing we look at is our overall analog book of business growing as we would expect. It's a little weaker than we would expect, obviously. But again, with 0.8% GDP growth, it's hard for us to dramatically out-script that with our basic book of business. We were up 3.4% in the first half against that GDP growth. And digital was up 15% against that GDP growth.

So I'm comfortable that, while we may have some customer migration going on, that's not -- the real story here is our hope for stronger economic tailwind did not materialize.

Okay and then one quick question, just for auto. Have you been affected by the supply shortage in Japan? Have you seen any cancellations, or has the deceleration been more about renewals?

I think the deceleration in terms of growth of auto as the category is more a reflection of the economy. I don't think it's supply chain interruption or anything like that. Q2 was up 10%. That's a pretty good number.

Were turning the corner on auto on some pretty tough comps. If I recall, auto was up almost 20% in Q3 last year. So were comping now against a recovery in that category. It's up to 6% of our books, Marci, and that's up from 5% last year. My view is it's growing, and it's still healthy, and it's going to get to where it needs to be.

Okay great. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Our next question will come from Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley.

Thank you, good morning. Just wondering if you guys could step back and comment on how you think your managers are executing in the market? Give us a sense -- I think you commented before, last quarter in particular, about a need to do better. Maybe you can just give us a sense for how you rate your performance this quarter? And then I'd love to get some regional color if you guys would spend a little bit of time to talking about the different regions in your business. There was big dispersion in performance that would help us think about the economic impact of various metro markets?

Well I think for the first half of the year, the story was probably large markets doing slightly better than smaller markets. I think that reflected the economy. We're a little bit confused as to the negative 1% in national in Q2. I think a lot of what happens on the national front isn't completely in our control, and I don't know if that's a harbinger of bad things to come, or whether it's just a blip on the national scope.

In talking to our colleagues in the industry, they're seeing a similar phenomenon. I believe Clear Channel announced that local out-performed national in Q2 as well.

In terms of regional performances, the story there I would say is pretty much the same as we reported on the last call. The recovery has not taken hold in the Western region, that would be Southern Nevada, they're still struggling a little bit, although we are beginning to see signs of life in Las Vegas. Florida is recovering, I think, a little better, but nothing to write home about.

You know at the end of the day there has been a divergence, this recovery, between Main Street and Madison Avenue. That's just the way this recovery has played out. Our fortunes are tied to Main Street, USA, and so that's the recovery we're looking forward to.

If you look at our top 20 verticals, and I think Kevin alluded to this, our top 10 are up, and we are up in Q2 5%. It's really the smaller customer base -- that vertical from number 10 to number 30 that includes tens of thousands of small businesses on Main Street USA where we're having a hard time getting traction.

That's very interesting. Is there any category, or couple of categories, that really changed on the national front, Q1 to Q2?

Yes, it's interesting, telecom was a little bit of a surprise for us in Q2. AT&T and Verizon have been spending very predictably and very heavily. They cut back a little bit in May and June. We don't think that's a trend. We just think that they're pausing a little bit. They've got some things going on, particularly AT&T and thinking through the T-Mobile thing on how they're going to approach their branding strategy and how the thinking about things. So I would say that was the one surprise where we had a little disappointing phone call.

Interesting. Not a category you would call out as typically cyclical.

No, telecom has been good for us. I think when you talk to the other guys, they'll tell you that they feel like it's still healthy and still good, and will do good things for us in the future.

Great, thanks a lot for the color.

Thank you. Our next question will come from Jim Boyle, Gilford.

Good morning. Sean, given the change in digital board install pace this year, is that going to change your pace in 2012, or should it be about the same all else being equal?

Well, Jim, what we're going to do is make those decisions in November. Where I sit right now, I'm feeling pretty good about what we're doing on the digital front, and I don't any reason to change it. It's not a huge capital commitment. This year we'll spend somewhere between $40 million and $50 million building that footprint, and it wouldn't surprise me if we didn't settle on around the same pace next year.

Secondly, you mentioned the difficulty in pushing for end month business, especially with the smaller businesses. How are national advertising rates in Q2 versus the prior-year? And is the Q3 trend similar?

I don't think it's a question of rates, if the discussion is strictly national. We are in an environment where it's hard to tell customers that you're going to push them real hard on rate, given where the economy is. Again, I think the prize that we got was AT&T, Verizon. And we're not getting indications going into next year that it was anything more than a pause on their front.

Okay thank you.

Thank you. Our next question will come round Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Industries.

Thanks very much and good morning. Kevin and Sean, I know in the past you guys have mentioned the outdoor industry, and you guys in particular trying to get involved in the buying process a bit earlier, maybe more in the strategy part of the buy that might give you look at more control over national. As we think about your national business being weaker than expected, as you mentioned, when we compare that against national television, which is just exceptionally strong, and so when we look your business being a little bit slower. That would suggest that your industry and maybe you, in particular, ar not having much success in working with agencies and getting a little bit earlier in the planning process. Is that, in fact, the case, and is there anything you guys in particular could do to improve that process?

As an industry, we weren't in the planning cycle going into this year. But this cycle, we will have the eyes on data in the planning cycle. So if it shows up, it will show up next year, not this year. In terms of eyes on helping us get into the planning cycle. But that's not the reason to pin the poor performance in Q2.

We had a strong national book, and it started deteriorating. As Kevin mentioned, selling in the month for the month has been a frustrating process as we went through the year. At the last call, our third quarter book was pacing up 5%, when we made our last call. As June turned into July, turned into August, we could see selling in the month for the month slow down. I think that's a reflection of what's going on in the economy.

Right and as a follow-up, do you think on any of your verticals in particular or in any of your markets you are seeing perhaps some of the Groupons of the world, and the local advertising inventory that's coming into the market? Is that impacting your business at all, have you heard that from any of your sales people?

No. We have a vertical, where our sales people and our local folks tell us that advertisers are picking other vehicles, and that's the hotel-motel category. That category used to be upwards of 8% of our book, and it's down to 3% or 4% of our book. So that's the one vertical where customers are picking other avenues. We're not seeing that in other verticals. In other verticals, the story of the cyclical story.

Great, thanks very much.

Thank you our next question will come from James Marsh, Piper Jaffray.

Good morning. Two quick questions. First, Keith, on the expense focus, if the top line remains soft, what specific categories are left to really go after in your opinion, that are big enough and meaningful enough to help offset declines in revenues? And then secondly could you just remind us what political ad spend was for you guys last year? My recollection, it was modest, but if you could quantify that, that would be helpful.

James on the first question, the expense categories, obviously, everything is in play. Our two biggest expenses are our lease cost, which is number 1, at about $190 million, and then our employee, our personnel cost, which is number 2 at about $170 million. So if you're going to look at cutting significant numbers, those two things have to be looked at. That being said, we've cut about $30 million to $40 million out of our lease expense since 2008, by taking down units, renegotiating leases.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, we had 3,600 employees. We eliminated 600 positions in the beginning of 2009, and we have not replaced any of those positions. We still have 3000 employees employed by the company, which is what we had at the end of our first quarter of 2009. But again, those are two big categories, and those are always something that we would take a look at.

And then you have the other categories. The smaller stuff obviously, entertainment, travel, lodging, bonuses for management. Across the board. But again, just as in 2008 and 2009, everything would be considered if it came time that we really had to go back and reduce expenses to where they were negative growth.

As far as politics, we had very little politics as usual. We don't get that business. That's all the broadcasters. I think it might have been $1 million, $1.5 million last year that we got.

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Thank you. Our next question will come from James Dix, Wedbush.

Good morning gentlemen. 3 things, just 1 housekeeping thing -- what was the growth of the static business in the second quarter? And I have two others, but I'll just take that one.

Keith, do you have that one broken down?

I'm sorry Sean, Theresa was asking me something. What was his question?

James was asking what the growth in static was in Q2. I don't have that in front of me.

Yes, hang on. Growth in static. I've got it somewhere, hang on. In Q2, our static was up to about a tenth of a point, it was basically flat.

Okay. I gather your guidance incorporates a similar assumption for 3Q?

Yes, we don't break it down when you look at it. But obviously we just -- we don't break it down by individual units. Poster, bulletin, static, digital, et cetera. We just look at the total book, but were assuming that the -- at a guidance of $293 million which is the same as what our actual Q2 revenue was, that the mix will be similar.

Okay. And then do you see a difference in mix of advertisers on the digital versus the static that you think might explain, on the one hand some of that lack the conviction you think you're seeing in some of your smaller local customers, and then, obviously, the well of enthusiasm of customers who are getting on the digital boards? And then I have one other follow-up.

Well, the category that is most dramatically different on digital is, as you would expect, amusement and entertainment, it tends to be time sensitive, date sensitive advertisements. Other than that, it's not hugely material. You get slightly less restaurant, as compared to our other business.

You know, if I had to point to something that was disappointing in Q2 on the digital front, and this is probably the only disappointing digital news, and it ties back to the AT&T, Verizon. AT&T and Verizon both were very disappointing Q2 on the digital front. Our national book of business on the digital front was up 11% for Q2. And that's in the face of cancellations from both those guys, from AT&T and Verizon.

So normally telecom and wireless are pretty vigorous users of the digital platform. The bad news call that we got in Q2 was that cancellation.

Okay that's very helpful. And then just lastly, as you go through a typical year of a recovery, do you normally see a lot of variance in the year-to-year rate growth you get by quarter? Or is it more like you go into a period where you negotiate your annuals -- that kind of gives you an expectation for what the coming year is going to be and there's not a lot of variance in rate growth by quarter. I'm just kind of curious in that dynamic. You talked a little bit about rate earlier.

Sure. The first thing you have to look to is when our contracts come for renewal, and it's essentially randomly throughout the year.

Okay.

So it's a pretty good reflection of what's going on at that moment. We were having much better rate discussions when we turned the corner going into this year. When the GDP was in the -- we thought was in the 3%-ish range, facing up in the 5% or 6% or 7%-ish range, and we were having good discussions. It's very hard now to go to local customers and beat them up on rate.

Okay. All right that's very helpful. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. Our final question will come from Jason Bazinet, Citi.

Thanks so much. I just had two quick questions. If I can go back to Marcy's question at the very beginning of the call -- and I apologize, this is probably because I'm just ignorant about this. But your explanation, saying that the analog book was growing. I thought you guys were going to answer by saying, if we look at some pocket of our footprint, that maybe is more rural where there's no digital, we see better trends, or similar trends to areas where there a lot of digital. And that's why we know the digital isn't cannibalizing. Is that not the right way to look at it? Or is it not possible to cut the pricing or utilization data between those markets with digital and without?

We've got digital in now 140 of our markets and they run the gamut of market types. They are larger urban and smaller rural. I think you could get into weeds if you tried to do it that way.

Okay.

What we try to do, is we try to do it an aggregate performance of both platforms. That's were we start. And then we try to dig in to the performance of individual units, regardless of where they are. And that data is tracked by Buster and Brent. They look at it very rigorously. They look at it as we put new units up. They look at the historical performance of units that are up. And they look at the performance of analog units that are in the neighborhood of those units, to see if customers are migrating.

So we do it as rigorously as we can. But, I still think the most reliable thing is -- to look at is, is the aggregate book of business growing? Does it make sense to continue to deploy? Is the local ad climate sufficiently strong to absorb the additional inventory?

Okay. Can ask one follow-up? When you mentioned that the hotel vertical where you're seeing some sort of migration to other types of advertising. Can you just elaborate on why you think it's hotel? And if you saw another category succumb to similar pressures, which one would it be?

Sure. The hotel-motel business, many people decide -- they used to decide at the last minute driving down interstate looking at billboards.

Yes.

Particularly for your downscale, side of the interstate, at the interchange hotel-motel business. Today, people are booking through various online services. They're using their hand-helds to figure out where a hotel or motel is rather than looking at the billboards.

It's a trend -- you know when we go back and look at the decade into that vertical, the hotel-motel business really never recovered from 9/11. That was a major blow to them. And from a cyclical point of view, they started deteriorating in our books. Had it not been for the secular issue, they probably would have rebounded. They never really rebounded.

So it went from 8%, 9% of our book down to 3%, 4% of our book. And in managing to that, were not assuming its going to go back to 8% or 9%. We are managing and selling to that vertical like they're where they're going to be, and we need to find other customers.

Okay. And if it spills to another vertical which one do think it would be?

Well, you look at consumer behavior and you think about what's out there. As I mentioned, our top 10 verticals are healthy. As a matter of fact, they are up in Q2 5%. It's those smaller customers reflected in verticals below the top 10. And I'm going to argue that their struggles are cyclical and it's not secular.

Okay. Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Chantel?

Yes sir. Go ahead Sir.

Chantel that concludes our call. I want to thank you for conducting it. And we look forward to the next quarterly call.

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen at this time this conference has now ended. You may disconnect your phone lines, and have a great rest of the week.