洛茲集團 (L) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

[The transcript was presubmitted by Loews Corporation. No live call was conducted for the first quarter earnings call.]

[該記錄由Loews公司預先提交。第一季財報電話會議未進行現場直播。 ]

Good morning. Loews had a strong first quarter in 2023, with each of our consolidated subsidiaries producing stellar results.

早安. Loews 在 2023 年第一季表現強勁，我們旗下各子公司均取得了優異的業績。

Let's start by taking a look at our property and casualty insurance subsidiary, CNA.

首先讓我們來看看我們的財產和意外保險子公司 CNA。

CNA's performance was solid, with the company reporting its highest ever quarterly underlying underwriting income. The company reported a first quarter underlying combined ratio of 90.8%, which represents a 0.6-point improvement over the company's strong results in the first quarter of 2022. However, CNA's all-in combined ratio increased by two points year-over-year to 93.9% due to higher catastrophe losses and unfavorable prior period development. On a positive note, net written premiums grew by 11% in the first quarter compared to a year ago. This growth was a result of rate increases, improved retention and robust new business, which grew by 12%. The company also reported strong core income of $325 million, a 9% increase year-over-year due to higher investment income.

CNA 業績穩健，公司報告季度基礎承保收入創歷史新高。該公司報告第一季基礎綜合成本率為 90.8%，比公司 2022 年第一季的強勁業績提高了 0.6 個百分點。然而，由於巨災損失增加和前期發展不利，CNA 的總綜合成本率比去年同期上升了兩個百分點，達到 93.9%。積極的一面是，第一季淨承保保費年增 11%。這一增長得益於費率上調、留存率提高以及新業務強勁增長（增長了 12%）。該公司還報告核心收入強勁，達到 3.25 億美元，由於投資收入增加，年增 9%。

There has been a lot of discussion as of late about the commercial real estate market. Like most insurance companies, CNA has exposure to commercial real estate through its commercial mortgage-backed securities, CMBS, real estate investment trusts, REITs, and direct lending portfolios. CNA's commercial real estate portfolio is well diversified both geographically and by property type. It is of high quality and predominantly investment grade. Furthermore, CNA's exposure to the commercial office sector is a relatively small portion of the overall portfolio. Given what we currently know, we do not anticipate CNA to be materially impacted by the current challenges in the real estate industry, including the commercial office sector. For more details regarding CNA's commercial real estate exposure please refer to the MD&A section of our first quarter 10-Q.

最近關於商業房地產市場的討論很多。與大多數保險公司一樣，CNA 透過其商業抵押貸款擔保證券、商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS)、房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 和直接貸款投資組合涉足商業房地產領域。 CNA 的商業房地產投資組合在地域和物業類型上都實現了高度多元化。其品質高，且主要為投資等級。此外，CNA 在商業辦公室的投資佔其整體投資組合的比例相對較小。根據我們目前掌握的信息，我們預計 CNA 不會受到房地產行業（包括商業辦公領域）當前挑戰的重大影響。有關 CNA 商業房地產投資的更多詳情，請參閱我們第一季 10-Q 報告中的「管理層討論與分析」部分。

Moving to Boardwalk, the company's EBITDA was essentially flat in the first quarter at $256 million versus $258 million in the prior year. As a reminder, Boardwalk has very limited exposure to the price of natural gas, other than it may impact drilling profiles and volume requirements of its customers. Furthermore, the company is not materially impacted by near-term fluctuations in the demand for natural gas because 95% of its revenues are derived from firm contracts.

再來看看Boardwalk，該公司第一季的EBITDA基本持平，為2.56億美元，去年同期為2.58億美元。需要提醒的是，Boardwalk受天然氣價格的影響非常有限，除非它可能會影響客戶的鑽井概況和產量需求。此外，由於Boardwalk 95%的收入來自固定合同，因此該公司不會受到短期天然氣需求波動的重大影響。

At Loews Hotels, the strong results of the past year and a half continued. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $86 million in the quarter, compared to $67 million in the first quarter of 2022. Loews Hotels continued to see strong leisure travel and group demand, though recent data suggests rate growth may be moderating. Occupancy rates were up nearly eight points this quarter, rising to 79.3% as compared to 71.5% in the first quarter of 2022. Note that the first quarter of last year was impacted by the emergence of the Omicron variant which adversely impacted hotel demand. After the impact of the Omicron variant receded, hotel demand rebounded faster than anticipated. Staffing levels increased at a slower pace than demand due to labor shortages, although they have since returned to normalized levels. As a result, the second and third quarters of last year were characterized by abnormally high margins.

Loews Hotels 延續了過去一年半的強勁業績。該公司公佈本季調整後 EBITDA 為 8,600 萬美元，而 2022 年第一季為 6,700 萬美元。 Loews Hotels 繼續看到強勁的休閒旅遊和團體需求，儘管最近的數據顯示價格增長可能正在放緩。本季入住率上升近 8 個百分點，升至 79.3%，而 2022 年第一季為 71.5%。需要注意的是，去年第一季受到 Omicron 變體出現的影響，該變體對酒店需求產生了不利影響。在 Omicron 變體的影響消退後，飯店需求反彈速度快於預期。由於勞動力短缺，員工人數的成長速度低於需求，儘管後來已恢復到正常水準。因此，去年第二季和第三季的利潤率異常高。

Also, construction continues on the Loews Arlington Hotel, the nearly 900-room property in Arlington, Texas, slated to open in the first quarter of 2024. In addition to its guest rooms, this property will also include 250,000 square feet of best-in-class meeting and event space. The total cost of this hotel is currently anticipated to be $545 million, of which $300 million is being funded with mortgage debt, $222 million with Loews Hotels equity, and $23 million with partner equity.

此外，位於德州阿靈頓、擁有近900間客房的洛伊斯阿靈頓酒店（Loews Arlington Hotel）的建設仍在繼續，預計將於2024年第一季開幕。除了客房外，該酒店還將擁有25萬平方英尺（約2.3萬平方米）一流的會議和活動空間。目前預計該酒店的總投資為5.45億美元，其中3億美元將透過抵押貸款融資，2.22億美元將透過洛伊斯酒店股權融資，2,300萬美元將透過合作夥伴股權融資。

Given its strong internal cash flow generation, the hotel company needed only a $33 million investment from Loews in 2022. Based on its current roster of projects, we anticipate making another relatively small investment in 2023 to help fund Loews Hotels' expansion in Orlando where the company continues to develop properties alongside Universal Destinations & Experiences.

鑑於其強大的內部現金流產生能力，該酒店公司在 2022 年僅需要 Loews 的 3,300 萬美元投資。根據其目前的項目清單，我們預計在 2023 年將進行另一筆相對較小的投資，以幫助資助 Loews Hotels 在奧蘭多的擴張，該公司將繼續在奧蘭多開發物業以及環球影城目的地與體驗。

Share repurchases remain a foundational aspect of Loews Corporation's capital allocation strategy. In the first quarter of 2023, we repurchased nearly 8.2 million common shares for a total cost of about $486 million, which represents nearly 3.5% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. Over the past five and a quarter years, Loews has reduced its share count by 104 million shares, which represents approximately 31% of the shares outstanding at the end of 2017. As long as the market is willing to make these shares available at what we consider to be bargain-basement prices, we are happy to buy them.

股票回購仍是Loews公司資本配置策略的基礎。 2023年第一季，我們回購了近820萬股普通股，總成本約4.86億美元，約佔年初流通股總數的3.5%。在過去五年零四分之一的時間裡，Loews已減持1.04億股，約佔2017年底流通股總數的31%。只要市場願意以我們認為的超低價出售這些股票，我們很樂意購買。

Finally, before I turn it over to Jane, I want to provide an update on the timing of the litigation related to our 2018 acquisition of the minority interest in Boardwalk Pipelines. Last quarter, we were pleased to report that the Delaware Supreme Court ruled in Loews's favor, finding that we had no liability to the plaintiffs on the issues that were decided by the trial court. The Delaware Supreme Court remanded the three remaining unresolved issues back to the trial court for consideration. The briefing process has begun on those unresolved issues. As a reminder, we have the ability to appeal the case back to the Delaware Supreme Court if the lower court does not rule in our favor on these three remaining issues. We are optimistic that this litigation will ultimately be resolved favorably and are hopeful that the lower court will reach a decision by the end of this year.

最後，在將發言權交給Jane之前，我想介紹一下我們2018年收購Boardwalk Pipelines少數股權相關訴訟的時間安排。上個季度，我們很高興地報告，特拉華州最高法院判決Loews勝訴，認定我們在初審法院裁決的問題上對原告不承擔任何責任。特拉華州最高法院將剩餘三個未決問題發回初審法院審理。針對這些未決問題的聽證程序已經開始。需要提醒的是，如果下級法院對這三個剩餘問題沒有做出對我們有利的裁決，我們可以將案件上訴回特拉華州最高法院。我們樂觀地認為，這起訴訟最終將得到有利解決，並希望下級法院能夠在今年年底前做出裁決。

For the first quarter of 2023, Loews reported net income of $375 million or $1.61 per share, compared with net income of $322 million or $1.29 per share in last year's first quarter. This year-over-year increase was driven by higher investment income at the Parent Company, as well as higher income from Loews Hotels. A slight increase in CNA's net income was offset by a small decrease in Boardwalk's net income.

2023年第一季，Loews 淨利為3.75億美元，合每股1.61美元，去年同期淨利為3.22億美元，合每股1.29美元。年比成長主要得益於母公司投資收益的增加以及Loews Hotels收入的增加。 CNA淨利的小幅成長被Boardwalk淨利的小幅下降所抵銷。

Book value per share increased from $61.86 at the end of 2022 to $63.41 at the end of the first quarter of 2023, and book value per share excluding AOCI, Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, increased from $75.78 at the end of 2022 to $76.84 at the end of the first quarter. This increase was driven by earnings and accretive share repurchases in the first quarter.

每股帳面價值從2022年底的61.86美元增至2023年第一季末的63.41美元，扣除累計其他綜合收益（AOCI）後的每股帳面價值從2022年底的75.78美元增至第一季末的76.84美元。這一成長主要得益於第一季的獲利成長和股票回購的增加。

Before I discuss the financial performance of our subsidiaries, I'd like to explain the new accounting standard we adopted for the first quarter 2023. As I mentioned in last quarter's earnings remarks, CNA's long-term care business is now being accounted for under the new GAAP accounting standard of "long-duration contracts targeted improvements," or LDTI. While this change became effective January 1, 2023, CNA, as well as Loews, applied these changes from the transition date of January 1, 2021. Therefore, you will notice that our first quarter 2022 results and December 2022 balance sheet have been adjusted to implement the new standard. In our 10-Q this quarter, we presented the effect of adoption of LDTI on selected financial data for all four quarters of 2022 and the full years of 2022 and 2021.

在討論我們子公司的財務表現之前，我想先解釋一下我們在2023年第一季採用的新會計準則。正如我在上個季度的收益報告中提到的，CNA的長期照護業務現在正按照新的GAAP會計準則「長期合約目標改進」（LDTI）進行核算。雖然這項變更於2023年1月1日生效，但CNA和Loews自2021年1月1日的過渡日期起就已應用這些變更。因此，您會注意到，我們2022年第一季的業績和2022年12月的資產負債表已根據新準則進行了調整。在本季的10季財報中，我們展示了採用LDTI對2022年所有四個季度以及2022年和2021年全年部分財務數據的影響。

Under this accounting standard, changes in discount rates and operating assumptions have been decoupled: discount rates now run through the balance sheet under AOCI, and changes in operating assumptions run through the income statement. Discount rate assumptions are based on single A-rated yields and updated on a quarterly basis. Operating assumptions such as morbidity and persistency are reviewed at least annually.

根據此會計準則，折現率的變動與經營假設的變動已脫鉤：在AOCI會計準則下，折現率現在貫穿資產負債表，而經營假設的變動則貫穿損益表。折現率假設基於單一A級收益率，並每季更新一次。諸如發病率和持續性等經營假設至少每年審查一次。

This change in accounting has no impact on the cash flows or underlying economics of CNA's long-term care business, nor does it impact capital and surplus under statutory accounting practices.

這種會計變化不會對 CNA 長期照護業務的現金流量或基本經濟狀況產生影響，也不會影響法定會計慣例下的資本和盈餘。

Under this LDTI accounting standard, the key impacts to Loews's first quarter financial statements are as follows: at December 31, 2022, total shareholders' equity declined by less than 2% from $15.5 billion to $15.2 billion, driven by lower retained earnings due to lower adjusted net income for the prior periods; Loews's first quarter 2022 net income was adjusted from $338 million, or $1.36 per share to $322 million, or $1.29 per share; this $16 million decrease was driven by favorable experience in long-term care being deferred into future periods.

根據該 LDTI 會計準則，對 Loews 第一季度財務報表的主要影響如下：截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，股東權益總額從 155 億美元下降至 152 億美元，降幅不到 2%，原因是前期調整後淨收入減少導致留存收益減少；Loews 2022 年第一季度淨收入從 3.38 億美元（即每股 1.36 美元）調整至 3.22億美元（即每股 1.29 美元）；這 1,600 萬美元的減少是由於長期照護方面的良好經驗被遞延至未來期間。

Please refer to our 10-Q for more details on the adoption of this new accounting standard.

有關採用此新會計準則的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們的 10-Q。

Turning to the results of our insurance subsidiary: CNA contributed net income of $268 million to Loews in the first quarter of 2023, compared to $265 million in the first quarter of last year. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher net investment income and a larger underlying underwriting gain, partially offset by higher catastrophe losses, unfavorable prior period development and realized investment losses.

回顧我們保險子公司的表現：CNA在2023年第一季為Loews貢獻了2.68億美元的淨利潤，而去年同期為2.65億美元。年成長主要得益於淨投資收益的增加和基礎承保收益的增加，但巨災損失的增加、前期業績不佳以及已實現投資損失部分抵消了這一增長。

The increase in net investment income was driven by higher interest rates on fixed income securities and higher returns on limited partnerships and common stocks. The pre-tax yield on the company's fixed income portfolio increased 29 bps from 4.3% in the first quarter of 2022 to 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023. The duration of the life and group portfolio has increased to 10.1 years at the end of this year's first quarter, up from 9.9 years at the end of 2022 and 8.9 years at the end of the first quarter of 2022. CNA experienced net investment losses in the first quarter of 2023 driven by unfavorable changes in the fair value of nonredeemable preferred stock and from realized losses on sales.

淨投資收益的成長得益於固定收益證券利率上升以及有限合夥企業和普通股回報率上升。公司固定收益投資組合的稅前收益率從2022年第一季的4.3%上升至2023年第一季的4.6%，上升了29個基點。壽險和團體投資組合的久期已從2022年第一季末的9.9年和2022年第一季末的8.9年增至今年第一季末的10.1年。 CNA在2023年第一季出現淨投資虧損，原因是不可贖回優先股的公允價值發生不利變動，以及銷售已實現損失。

Premium growth continues to be strong, with first quarter net earned and net written premiums up by 10% and 11%, respectively, driven by three factors: first, new business grew by 12%; second, retention increased by two points to 86%; and third, renewal premiums increased by 7%, comprised of five points of rate and two points of exposure growth.

保費成長持續強勁，第一季淨賺保費和淨承保保費分別成長 10% 和 11%，推動因素主要有三：第一，新業務成長 12%；第二，留存率增加 2 個百分點，達到 86%；第三，續保費率成長 7%，其中留存率增加 2 個百分點，達到 86%；第三，續保費率成長 7%，其中盈餘增加 5 個百分點，風險敞口增加 2 個百分點。

CNA's P&C underlying combined ratio declined by 0.6 point to 90.8% due to improvements in both the underlying loss and expense ratios. The total combined ratio increased by two points to 93.9% in the first quarter 2023, driven by a 1.4-point increase in catastrophe losses due to the impact of several storms in the quarter, as compared to a mild season last year and a 1.2-point year-over-year deterioration in prior period development.

由於基礎損失率和費用率都有所改善，CNA的財產及意外險基礎綜合成本率下降了0.6個百分點，至90.8%。 2023年第一季度，總綜合成本率上升了2個百分點，至93.9%，原因是本季度受多場風暴影響，巨災損失增加了1.4個百分點，而去年同期的氣候較為溫和，且前期發展情況同比惡化了1.2個百分點。

Please refer to CNA's Investor Relations website for more details on their results and further discussion on the LDTI accounting change.

請參閱 CNA 的投資者關係網站，以了解有關其績效的更多詳細資訊以及有關 LDTI 會計變更的進一步討論。

In our natural gas pipeline business, Boardwalk contributed EBITDA of $256 million in this year's first quarter compared to $258 million in the first quarter of 2022. The company generated higher revenues in the quarter primarily due to re-contracting at higher rates, the impact of growth projects, and higher storage revenues due to favorable market conditions. The increase in revenues was offset by higher operation and maintenance expenses as a result of pipeline safety compliance rules and higher employee-related costs.

在我們的天然氣管道業務中，Boardwalk今年第一季貢獻的EBITDA為2.56億美元，而2022年第一季為2.58億美元。公司本季營收成長，主要得益於更高的續約費率、成長項目的影響以及有利的市場環境帶來的倉儲收入成長。收入成長被管道安全合規規定導致的營運和維護費用增加以及員工相關成本增加所抵消。

Boardwalk contributed $86 million of net income to Loews this quarter, which represents a decrease of $5 million from $91 million in the first quarter of 2022. Higher depreciation expense resulting from recently completed growth projects was partially offset by lower interest expense due to lower borrowings.

本季度，Boardwalk 為 Loews 貢獻了 8,600 萬美元的淨收入，比 2022 年第一季的 9,100 萬美元減少了 500 萬美元。由於最近完成的增長項目導致的折舊費用增加，部分被由於借款減少導致的利息支出減少所抵消。

Loews Hotels had another great quarter. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $67 million in last year's first quarter to $86 million in this year's first quarter. This increase was driven by strong occupancy, which increased by nearly eight points compared to the first quarter of 2022. As Jim mentioned, the first quarter of last year was impacted by the emergence of the Omicron variant which adversely impacted hotel demand. As a reminder, adjusted EBITDA is reconciled on page 12.

Loews Hotels 又一個季度表現出色。調整後 EBITDA 從去年第一季的 6,700 萬美元成長至今年第一季的 8,600 萬美元。這一成長得益於強勁的入住率，入住率較 2022 年第一季成長了近 8 個百分點。正如 Jim 所提到的，去年第一季受到了 Omicron 變體的影響，該變體對酒店需求產生了不利影響。提醒一下，調整後的 EBITDA 已在第 12 頁進行了對帳。

The hotel company contributed $24 million of net income to Loews this quarter versus $15 million in the prior year's first quarter. The positive impacts of higher occupancy were partially offset by higher interest expense on the company's floating rate debt.

該酒店公司本季為Loews貢獻了2,400萬美元的淨利潤，而去年同期為1,500萬美元。入住率上升帶來的正面影響被公司浮動利率債務利息支出的增加部分抵消。

Finally, turning to the corporate segment: Loews recorded after-tax investment income of $33 million in the first quarter of 2023 compared to losses of $13 million in the prior year's first quarter. This improvement was driven by positive income from equities versus losses last year, as well as higher income from our portfolio of short-term cash equivalents.

最後，談談公司業務：Loews 2023 年第一季的稅後投資收益為 3,300 萬美元，而去年同期虧損 1,300 萬美元。這項改善得益於股票收益為正，而去年同期虧損，以及短期現金等價物投資組合收益的增加。

The corporate segment also includes our proportionate share of Altium's earnings, which is accounted for under the equity method. Altium's first quarter income declined slightly, as incremental income from acquisitions was offset by higher interest expense.

公司部門也包括我們以權益法計算的Altium收益份額。 Altium第一季營收略有下降，原因是收購帶來的增量收入被更高的利息支出所抵銷。

From a cash flow perspective, we received $395 million in dividends from CNA in the first quarter of 2023. During the quarter, we repurchased 8.2 million shares of our common stock at a cost of $486 million. Loews ended the quarter with $3.1 billion in cash and short-term investments.

從現金流角度來看，我們在2023年第一季獲得了來自CNA的3.95億美元股利。本季度，我們回購了820萬股普通股，成本為4.86億美元。截至本季末，Loews持有31億美元現金和短期投資。

Every quarter, we encourage shareholders to send us questions in advance of earnings that they would like us to answer in our remarks. Please see below for the questions we have received, along with some additional questions we found relevant.

每個季度，我們都鼓勵股東在財報發布前向我們提出他們希望我們在財報中解答的問題。請參閱下文，了解我們收到的問題，以及一些我們認為相關的其他問題。

Loews has a substantial net cash position. How do you manage it?

Loews擁有大量淨現金。您是如何管理的？

At the end of the first quarter, Loews had $3.1 billion of cash and investments. However, only a minuscule portion of that cash and investment balance is actually held in the form of cash deposits. In fact, we typically hold less than $10 million of cash at any given time. The remaining cash is held as short-term treasuries or swept into money market accounts. The average duration of our treasury portfolio is typically less than four months. Also, higher interest rates are benefiting our holdings as the average yield on this portfolio is 4.8%.

截至第一季末，Loews 持有 31 億美元現金及投資。然而，其中只有極小一部分以現金存款的形式實際持有。事實上，我們通常持有的現金在任何時候都不超過 1000 萬美元。剩餘現金則以短期國債或貨幣市場帳戶的形式持有。我們國債投資組合的平均久期通常不到四個月。此外，利率上升也有利於我們的持股，因為該投資組合的平均收益率為 4.8%。

Jane, is Loews planning on refinancing its May 2023 bond maturity?

Jane，Loews 是否計劃為其 2023 年 5 月到期的債券進行再融資？

We are planning to repay the $500 million maturity. In 2020, at the height of the COVID pandemic, we issued a $500 million bond to have extra liquidity in light of the unprecedented level of uncertainty in the economy. At the time we stated that we would use the funds to repay our 2023 maturity if there was no need for incremental liquidity. Given that our subsidiaries are all performing well and are mostly self-funding their growth, there is no need to refinance this maturity.

我們計劃償還這筆5億美元的到期債券。 2020年，在新冠疫情最嚴重之際，我們發行了5億美元的債券，以便在經濟前所未有的不確定性下獲得額外的流動性。當時我們表示，如果不需要增量流動性，我們將用這筆資金償還2023年到期的債券。鑑於我們所有子公司的業績良好，且大部分都依靠自身資金支持成長，因此無需為這筆到期債券進行再融資。

Jim, would you like to share your latest thoughts on the economy, interest rates and inflation?

吉姆，您願意分享您對經濟、利率和通貨膨脹的最新看法嗎？

When I started making these remarks on the economy more than two years ago, I never expected that things would get so exciting in the usually staid world of economic forecasting. In our last quarter's remarks, I made the argument that the Fed should consider pausing their rate increases to assess the economy over the next three months, cautioning the Fed to be careful not to raise rates too far too fast, lest it cause a calamity.

兩年多前，當我開始就經濟問題發表這些評論時，我從未想到通常沉穩的經濟預測領域會變得如此令人興奮。在上個季度的評論中，我提出聯準會應該考慮暫停升息，以評估未來三個月的經濟狀況，並警告聯準會謹慎升息，不要過快過猛，以免引發災難。

I had no idea how prescient my words would be: I would certainly classify what happened in the U.S. banking system in the first few weeks of March as a calamity.

我不知道我的話會有多麼有先見之明：我肯定會將三月頭幾週美國銀行系統發生的事情歸類為一場災難。

With the troubles at Silicon Valley Bank and at Signature Bank, the Fed found itself on its back foot, being forced to react. As Warren Buffett says, "When the tide goes out, you see who was swimming without a bathing suit."

矽谷銀行和Signature銀行的困境，讓聯準會陷入被動，被迫做出反應。正如沃倫·巴菲特所說：“當潮水退去，你才知道誰在赤身裸體地游泳。”

What is now obvious in hindsight is that the rate increases engineered by the Fed over the past year -- the highest and fastest at any time in the past forty years -- were too much for some institutions in the banking system to handle. As a result of those steep rate increases, last month the Fed had to worry about a run on a major portion of the American banking system.

事後看來，顯而易見的是，聯準會在過去一年策劃的升息——這是過去40年來最高、最快的一次——對銀行體系中的一些機構來說過於沉重。由於這些大幅升息，上個月聯準會不得不擔心美國銀行體系的大部分機構會遭遇擠兌。

The Fed and the FDIC did what they had to do to prevent a full-fledged banking catastrophe. Those who complain that the Fed overstepped and did too much to bail out large depositors and the banking system don't understand the ramifications of a massive, uncontrolled bank scare. In such a scare, people and institutions withdraw their money first and ask questions later. It would have been the equivalent of a neutron bomb hitting the economy. If the Fed hadn't acted the way they did, there would have been more runs on banks and the Fed's job of insuring that the banking system remains sound for depositors would have been an order of magnitude more difficult and expensive. The best way to stop a bank run -- as well as a brush fire and a riot -- is not to let it get started in the first place.

聯準會和聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）採取了其應盡的措施，以防止一場全面的銀行業災難。那些抱怨聯準會越權、過度救助大儲戶和銀行體系的人，並沒有理解大規模、失控的銀行恐慌的後果。在這種恐慌中，個人和機構會先提取資金，然後再提出問題。這相當於一顆中子彈擊中了經濟。如果聯準會沒有採取那樣的行動，銀行擠兌現象會更加嚴重，而聯準會確保銀行體系對儲戶保持穩健的工作也會變得更加困難和昂貴。阻止銀行擠兌——以及防止小規模火災和騷亂——的最佳方法是從一開始就防止其發生。

Hopefully the crisis is over. Only time will tell. The basic problem is that money center banks carry an implied guarantee by the government since they are too big to fail. But local and regional banks do not have a similar guarantee, so they are at a distinct competitive disadvantage. I am somewhat surprised that the authorities were able to calm the waters without guaranteeing all deposits, and I wouldn't be surprised if other flare-ups appear in the coming months.

希望危機已經結束。只有時間才能給出答案。根本問題在於，貨幣中心銀行由於“大到不能倒”，因此承擔政府的默示擔保。但地方和區域性銀行沒有類似的擔保，因此它們在競爭中處於明顯的劣勢。我有點驚訝當局能夠在沒有為所有存款提供擔保的情況下平息事態，如果未來幾個月出現其他突發事件，我不會感到驚訝。

For the time being, we are left with the question that we've been wrestling with for the past year: should the Fed raise rates and if so, how much higher will rates have to go in order to slay the inflation dragon? My answer to that question is the same as it was last quarter, announce that there will be no increase in the Fed funds rate for the next three months so the Fed can assess all the data and make a proper determination of the direction of inflation. There are plenty of signs that our economy is weakening, and managing monetary policy by reacting to every monthly tick of the CPI or other indicators is not a productive way to manage monetary policy.

目前，我們面臨的問題仍然是過去一年來一直在思考的：聯準會是否應該升息？如果升息，利率需要升至多少才能扼殺通膨這頭巨龍？我的答案與上個季度相同，即宣布未來三個月不會上調聯邦基金利率，以便聯準會能夠評估所有數據，並正確判斷通膨方向。大量跡象表明，我們的經濟正在走弱，而透過對每月CPI或其他指標的波動做出反應來管理貨幣政策並非一種有效的管理方式。

Remember that in the past year, Fed funds are up almost 500 basis points. Between the effects of the banking system crisis on lending and the delayed response to the rapid increase in interest rates, now is certainly the time for a pause. And that's the way I see things. More next quarter.

別忘了，過去一年，聯邦基金利率上漲了近500個基點。考慮到銀行體系危機對貸款的影響，以及對利率快速上漲的遲緩反應，現在肯定是暫停的時候了。我就是這麼看的。下個季度會再說。