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Operator
Operator
Hello, and welcome to the Kenvue Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好,歡迎參加 Kenvue 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Tina Romani, Head of Investor Relations for Kenvue.
現在我很高興向您介紹主持人,Kenvue 投資者關係主管 Tina Romani。
Tina Romani - Head of IR
Tina Romani - Head of IR
Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be joined today by Thibaut Mongon, Chief Executive Officer; and Paul Ruh, Chief Financial Officer.
大家,早安。我很高興今天執行長蒂博·蒙貢 (Thibaut Mongon) 加入我們的行列。和財務長 Paul Ruh。
Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that today's call includes forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, our operating and financial performance, market opportunities and growth. These statements represent our current beliefs or expectations about future events and are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially. For information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our earnings materials related to this call posted on our website and our filings with the SEC.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天的電話會議包含有關我們的營運和財務表現、市場機會和成長等方面的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述代表了我們目前對未來事件的信念或預期,並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響,可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的信息,請參閱我們網站上發布的與本次電話會議相關的盈利材料以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件。
During this call, we've also referenced certain non-GAAP financial information. The presentation of this non-GAAP financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a subject for financial information presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in conjunction with the most comparable GAAP financial measure. A reconciliation of these items to the nearest U.S. GAAP measure can be found in this morning's press release and our presentation available on the IR website.
在這次電話會議中,我們也參考了某些非公認會計準則財務資訊。此非 GAAP 財務資訊的呈現不應被孤立地考慮,也不能作為根據美國 GAAP 呈現的財務資訊的主題。這些非公認會計原則財務指標應與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務指標結合起來看待。這些項目與最接近的美國公認會計準則衡量標準的調節可以在今天早上的新聞稿和我們在 IR 網站上提供的演示中找到。
With that, I'll turn it over to Thibaut.
有了這個,我會把它交給蒂博。
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thank you, Tina, and thank you to everyone for joining us today.
謝謝你,蒂娜,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。
2023 was a year of transformational change for our company and for 22,000 Kenvuers around the world. Our teams accomplished a tremendous amount, successfully standing up Kenvue as an independent public company, while continuing to drive profitable growth. While we accomplished a lot in 2023, we know we have areas where we need to increase our focus and improve. So as we enter 2024, we have identified 3 key priorities that will enable our continued transition as an independent company, while continuing to grow the business.
2023 年對我們公司和全球 22,000 名 Kenvuer 來說是轉型變革的一年。我們的團隊取得了巨大的成就,成功地將 Kenvue 打造為獨立的上市公司,同時繼續推動獲利成長。雖然我們在 2023 年取得了許多成就,但我們知道我們還有一些領域需要加強關注和改進。因此,當我們進入 2024 年時,我們確定了 3 個關鍵優先事項,這將使我們能夠繼續轉型為獨立公司,同時繼續發展業務。
This year, we will reach more consumers, with a stronger focus on our 15 priority brands, free up resources to invest behind our brands and foster a culture that rewards performance and impact.
今年,我們將接觸更多的消費者,更加關注我們的 15 個優先品牌,釋放資源來投資我們的品牌,並培養一種獎勵績效和影響力的文化。
In 2023, we delivered on our long-term value creation algorithm centered around profitable growth, durable cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation. Our 5% organic growth was broad-based across all 3 segments, all 4 regions and all 8 product categories. Self Care delivered another banner year of 8.4% organic growth, sustaining the momentum we have built over the past several years, resulting, once again, in strong revenue growth and share gain.
2023 年,我們推出了以獲利成長、持久現金流產生和嚴格資本配置為中心的長期價值創造演算法。我們 5% 的有機成長廣泛涉及所有 3 個細分市場、所有 4 個地區和所有 8 個產品類別。 Self Care 又實現了 8.4% 的有機成長,維持了我們過去幾年建立的勢頭,再次實現了強勁的營收成長和份額成長。
Essential Health grew ahead of our long-term expectations with 3.6% organic growth, while continuing to execute our strategy to drive gross margin enhancement through successful value realization and premiumization initiatives.
Essential Health 的成長超出了我們的長期預期,有機成長 3.6%,同時繼續執行我們的策略,透過成功的價值實現和高端化措施來推動毛利率提高。
And in Skin Health and Beauty, organic growth was 1.8% less than we expected, mostly due to specific missteps around in-store execution in the U.S., which we are actively addressing. And I'll give you more details about that in just a moment.
在皮膚健康和美容領域,有機成長比我們的預期低 1.8%,這主要是由於美國店內執行的具體失誤所致,我們正在積極解決這個問題。我稍後會向您提供更多相關細節。
We continued our successful multiyear program to expand gross margins in 2023 with 30 basis points of expansion through thoughtful revenue management initiatives and relentless supply chain optimization. This further demonstrates that we have the capabilities and the strategies in place to drive profitable growth even in a dynamic and uncertain macro backdrop. And finally, we utilize our strong free cash flow to initiate our dividend program, delivering our commitment of returning cash to shareholders.
我們繼續實施成功的多年計劃,透過深思熟慮的收入管理舉措和不懈的供應鏈優化,到 2023 年將毛利率提高 30 個基點。這進一步表明,即使在動態和不確定的宏觀背景下,我們也有能力和策略來推動獲利成長。最後,我們利用強大的自由現金流來啟動股利計劃,並履行我們向股東返還現金的承諾。
Pivoting to Q4 specifically, let's now have a look at the performance of each one of our segments, and I'll start with Skin Health and Beauty as our disappointing focus performance on top line, clearly fell short of expectations, both yours and ours. Looking by region, it is evident where we have strength to leverage and where we need to improve. EMEA and Latin America ended the year strong. In EMEA, organic growth improved sequentially quarter-over-quarter on positive consumer response to innovation launched earlier in the year. In Germany, for example, Neutrogena, Hydro Boost has fueled growth ahead of the category.
具體轉向第四季度,現在讓我們來看看我們每個細分市場的表現,我將從皮膚健康和美容開始,因為我們在營收的重點表現令人失望,顯然沒有達到您和我們的預期。以地區來看,我們可以明顯看出哪些地方有優勢,哪些地方需要改進。歐洲、中東和非洲地區和拉丁美洲地區今年表現強勁。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,由於消費者對今年稍早推出的創新的積極反應,有機成長較上季改善。例如,在德國,露得清 (Neutrogena) 的 Hydro Boost 推動了領先於同類產品的成長。
In Latin America, where we continued to grow double digits, Neutrogena faced doubled sales in the quarter, supported by the successful launch of Hydro Boost refills. In China, weaker consumer demand continued to pressure the overall category in our skin care brands. However, it is our performance in the U.S. that did not meet our expectations. As we have talked with you about, we had ambitious fourth quarter recovery plan for the U.S., but frankly, the execution of this plan was disappointing. Restoring Neutrogena to the level of growth, we know the brand is capable of is a priority for me and for the team.
在拉丁美洲,我們繼續實現兩位數的成長,在成功推出 Hydro Boost 補充裝的支持下,露得清 (Neutrogena) 本季的銷售額翻了一番。在中國,消費者需求疲軟持續為我們護膚品牌的整體品類帶來壓力。然而,我們在美國的表現並沒有達到我們的期望。正如我們與您討論的那樣,我們為美國製定了雄心勃勃的第四季度復甦計劃,但坦率地說,該計劃的執行情況令人失望。讓露得清恢復到成長水平,我們知道品牌有能力,這是我和團隊的首要任務。
So over the past several months, I spent significant time with our team in the U.S. and engage with our customers as the diagnosis is clear. We know our brand equities are healthy and our products resonate with consumers in the category. However, we must improve our in-store execution capabilities to drive stronger demand for our brands, better communicate our value proposition to consumers, launch innovation successfully and finally, support our brands with a robust level of marketing investments.
因此,在過去的幾個月裡,我花了很多時間與我們在美國的團隊一起工作,並在診斷明確後與我們的客戶進行交流。我們知道我們的品牌資產是健康的,我們的產品與該類別的消費者產生共鳴。然而,我們必須提高店內執行能力,以推動對我們品牌的更強勁需求,更好地向消費者傳達我們的價值主張,成功推出創新,最後以強勁的營銷投資水平支持我們的品牌。
In early December, we shared that Jan Meurer, previously our Chief Growth Officer, will assume the position of Head of North America. With Jan's deep knowledge of our portfolio and our growth strategy, he has already outlined with his team the focused road map that they are executing to strengthen their capabilities and stabilize the business.
12 月初,我們宣布前首席成長長 Jan Meurer 將擔任北美地區負責人。 Jan 對我們的產品組合和成長策略有著深入的了解,他已經與他的團隊概述了他們正在執行的重點路線圖,以增強他們的能力並穩定業務。
Specifically, the recently redesigned North America Skin Health and Beauty leadership team is taking action in 3 areas: First, we are strengthening in-store presence and prominence through better planning with customers, enhanced packaging that clearly articulate dermatological benefits and more prominent in-store brand activation.
具體來說,最近重新設計的北美皮膚健康和美容領導團隊正在三個領域採取行動:首先,我們透過與客戶進行更好的規劃、改進包裝以明確說明皮膚病學益處以及在店內更加突出來加強店內影響力和知名度。品牌活化。
Second, we are enhancing consumer engagements through distinct and consistent brand experiences delivered with the appropriate level of reach and frequency and supported by a revamped marketing effort. And third, we are amplifying innovations through bolstered demand generation activities with consumers and health care professionals.
其次,我們透過以適當的覆蓋範圍和頻率提供獨特且一致的品牌體驗,並在改進的營銷工作的支持下,增強消費者的參與度。第三,我們正在透過與消費者和醫療保健專業人員加強需求挖掘活動來擴大創新。
So this will not be an overnight shift. It will take time for these actions to generate impact on our results, which we expect to occur in the second half of the year, but we are confident we have correctly diagnosed our weaknesses and are making the necessary changes.
所以這不會是一個夜班。這些行動需要一段時間才能對我們的表現產生影響,我們預計這將在今年下半年發生,但我們相信我們已經正確診斷了我們的弱點並正在做出必要的改變。
Additionally, we believe our strong partnerships with retailers, coupled with increased investment and a higher level of precision in our execution, will enable us to stabilize the business in the U.S. and deliver stronger growth in 2024.
此外,我們相信,我們與零售商的牢固合作夥伴關係,加上投資的增加和執行精度的提高,將使我們能夠穩定在美國的業務,並在 2024 年實現更強勁的成長。
So now turning to the rest of the portfolio. In Self Care, our largest segment, is a very different picture. We ended the year in line with our expectations, delivering organic growth of 8.4% in 2023, on top of 10.9% growth in 2022. We continue to demonstrate our leadership in the fourth quarter, reading the season accurately and activating our brands with precision.
現在轉向投資組合的其餘部分。在我們最大的細分市場「自我照護」領域,情況卻截然不同。我們的財年結束符合我們的預期,在2022 年增長10.9% 的基礎上,2023 年實現了8.4% 的有機增長。我們在第四季度繼續展示我們的領導力,準確解讀季節並精準激活我們的品牌。
Adult Tylenol continued to gain share in the U.S., with 78 consecutive weeks of share growth even as category volumes declined as expected with roughly 15% lower incidence levels this cold and flu season compared to 2022. And again, this quarter, we strengthened our leadership positions with relevant innovation, premiumization and leading health care professional endorsement. So looking to 2024, we intend to continue to deploy this winning formula around the world.
成人泰諾在美國的份額繼續增加,儘管類別銷量如預期下降,本感冒和流感季節的發病率比2022 年下降了約15%,但份額連續78 週增長。本季度我們再次加強了我們的領導地位具有相關創新、高端化和領先醫療保健專業認可的職位。因此,展望 2024 年,我們打算繼續在全球部署這項制勝模式。
And finally, in Essential Health, performance was led by Oral Care and Women's Health, while Baby Care shipments were less robust this quarter. Oral Care grew 8%, with organic growth in all regions, including the U.S., where Listerine, despite being around 5x bigger than our next competitor, remains the most productive brand in the category and has now delivered 21 weeks of double-digit consumption growth.
最後,在基本健康領域,口腔護理和女性健康表現領先,而嬰兒護理品本季的出貨量則較不強勁。口腔護理產品成長了8%,包括美國在內的所有地區都實現了有機成長,儘管在美國,李施德林的規模比我們的下一個競爭對手大5 倍左右,但仍然是該類別中生產力最高的品牌,目前已連續21 週實現兩位數的消費成長。
The launch of Listerine gum therapy has done extremely well as the largest innovation in the U.S. mouthwash category in 2023, reaching 1 point of share in 12 months just for this code, and we have more great innovation planned in 2024.
李施德林牙齦療法的推出表現非常出色,成為2023 年美國漱口水類別中最大的創新,僅此代碼就在12 個月內達到了1 個百分點的份額,並且我們計劃在2024 年推出更多偉大的創新。
Which bring me to our priorities for this year. 2024 will be our first full year as an independent company. And you will see us starting to operate differently than what we have in the past, which will enable us to unleash the full potential of our portfolio.
這讓我談談今年的優先事項。 2024 年將是我們作為獨立公司的第一個全年。您將看到我們開始以與過去不同的方式運營,這將使我們能夠釋放我們投資組合的全部潛力。
As I shared earlier, we have 3 priorities: First, we are going to reach more consumers, with a strong focus on our 15 priority brands. We are strengthening our plans to build attractive, consistent brand experiences for our 15 priority brands, which represent 2/3 of our growth. With strong retailer partnership, we will bring to market relevant innovation across all segments, driving mental availability, but also ensuring physical availability where and when our consumers need us. We are also raising our bar in terms of activation excellence in our focus markets, starting with the U.S. So you are going to see our top brands with a higher level of activation in 2024 as we fuel growth.
正如我之前分享的,我們有 3 個優先事項:首先,我們將吸引更多消費者,並專注於我們的 15 個優先品牌。我們正在加強計劃,為我們的 15 個優先品牌打造有吸引力、一致的品牌體驗,這些品牌占我們成長的 2/3。憑藉強大的零售商合作夥伴關係,我們將把所有細分市場的相關創新推向市場,推動心理可用性,同時也確保消費者需要我們的時間和地點的實體可用性。從美國開始,我們也提高了重點市場卓越活化的標準。因此,隨著我們推動成長,您將在 2024 年看到我們的頂級品牌具有更高的活化水準。
In Self Care, we have strong plans to bring forward science-based category-leading innovations to meet the needs of consumers, maintain category-leading health care professional recommendation and ultimately, drive continued share gains.
在自我照護領域,我們制定了強有力的計劃,推出基於科學的類別領先創新,以滿足消費者的需求,維持類別領先的醫療保健專業推薦,並最終推動市場份額持續增長。
And in Skin Health, we will stabilize the business in the U.S. with a plan I outlined today. Outside the U.S., in China, we will monitor consumer sentiment and thoughtfully calibrate our investment accordingly, while in the rest of the world, where we continue to see our growth in Europe and Latin America. This requires investment, and we have plans to invest more in brand activation in 2024, both with consumers and with health care professionals. Continued margin expansion and efficiencies across the business will fuel this investment.
在皮膚健康領域,我們將透過我今天概述的計劃來穩定美國的業務。在美國以外的中國,我們將監測消費者情緒,並相應地深思熟慮地調整我們的投資,而在世界其他地區,我們將繼續看到歐洲和拉丁美洲的成長。這需要投資,我們計劃在 2024 年對消費者和醫療保健專業人士的品牌活化進行更多投資。整個業務的持續利潤率擴張和效率將推動這項投資。
Which brings me to our second priority, which is to free up resources and invest in our brands. We expect gross margins to expand at an accelerated pace compared to 2023, which will fund increased investment in our brands. You've heard me say that over the past several years, we have been going to the gym on gross margin. And through this work, we will continue to strengthen this muscle, driving efficiency across our supply chain, managing our mix and implementing thoughtful revenue management initiatives.
這讓我想到了我們的第二要務,那就是釋放資源並投資我們的品牌。我們預計,與 2023 年相比,毛利率將加速成長,這將為我們增加品牌投資提供資金。你聽我說過,在過去的幾年裡,我們一直在毛利率上去健身房。透過這項工作,我們將繼續加強這項力量,提高整個供應鏈的效率,管理我們的產品組合併實施深思熟慮的收入管理措施。
In addition, as we exit our transition services agreement with Johnson & Johnson, we are not simply replicating legacy processes, but rather intentionally reinventing our ways of working. And this includes implementing modern systems designed specifically to meet the needs of our new company and enable speed, agility, accuracy and a lower cost base.
此外,當我們退出與強生公司的過渡服務協議時,我們不是簡單地複製遺留流程,而是有意重塑我們的工作方式。這包括實施專門為滿足我們新公司的需求而設計的現代化系統,並實現速度、敏捷性、準確性和更低的成本基礎。
For example, we are implementing a new integrated business planning process that will improve our demand forecasting capabilities and service levels through better integrating and automating retailer data and demand sensing. This plan will be implemented throughout the next 6 quarters, with the majority occurring this year. And all of this will be enabled by our teams around the world, which leads me to our final priority, fostering a culture that rewards performance and impact.
例如,我們正在實施新的整合業務規劃流程,該流程將透過更好地整合和自動化零售商數據和需求感知來提高我們的需求預測能力和服務水準。該計劃將在未來 6 個季度實施,其中大部分在今年實施。所有這一切都將由我們世界各地的團隊來實現,這讓我想到了我們的最終優先事項,即培養一種獎勵績效和影響力的文化。
In 2024, we are deploying our new Kenvue performance management plan, with clear goals and a heightened sense of accountability for every Kenvuer. The plan introduces new incentive programs for all leaders, encouraging and rewarding impact on the 4 drivers of shareholder return: top line growth, margin expansion, earnings growth and free cash flow. Further, we are streamlining decision-making across the organization, including in my own leadership team. And most importantly, we are creating a culture based on our Kenvue values where everyone has a strong sense of purpose and belonging, an opportunity to grow and is rewarded for impact.
2024 年,我們將部署新的 Kenvue 績效管理計劃,為每個 Kenvuer 制定明確的目標和更強的責任感。該計劃為所有領導者引入了新的激勵計劃,對股東回報的四個驅動因素產生鼓勵和獎勵影響:營收成長、利潤擴張、獲利成長和自由現金流。此外,我們正在簡化整個組織的決策制定,包括我自己的領導團隊的決策。最重要的是,我們正在創造一種基於 Kenvue 價值觀的文化,讓每個人都有強烈的使命感和歸屬感、成長機會並因影響力而獲得回報。
So in closing, we made significant progress in 2023. And while we still have a lot of work ahead of us, our priorities are clear in 2024 and give me confidence in our ability to deliver our plan for the year. I'm deeply grateful to our talented teams for their energy and passion to work together as one team to build our new company. It is inspiring to see 22,000 Kenvuers rally behind one purpose, helping people realize the extraordinary power of everyday care, and I know they will make us successful this year and into the future.
最後,我們在 2023 年取得了重大進展。雖然我們還有很多工作要做,但 2024 年我們的優先事項很明確,這讓我對我們實現今年計劃的能力充滿信心。我非常感謝我們才華橫溢的團隊,他們充滿活力和熱情,作為一個團隊共同努力建立我們的新公司。看到 22,000 名 Kenvuer 人為了同一個目標而團結起來,幫助人們認識到日常護理的非凡力量,這是令人鼓舞的,我知道他們將使我們今年和未來取得成功。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Paul.
有了這個,我會把它交給保羅。
Paul Ruh - CFO
Paul Ruh - CFO
2023 was a transformational year, where we delivered strong top line, gross margin expansion and robust cash generation, even in the face of a dynamic macro backdrop and significant cost headwinds. I will start with an overview of results for the fourth quarter and the year, then close with our outlook for 2024.
2023 年是轉型的一年,即使面對動態的宏觀背景和重大的成本阻力,我們仍實現了強勁的營收、毛利率擴張和強勁的現金生成。我將首先概述第四季度和全年的業績,然後以我們對 2024 年的展望結束。
As you heard from Thibaut, fourth quarter performance did not meet our expectations as in-store execution fell short of plan in the U.S. Skin Health and Beauty business. While we don't expect recovery overnight, I'm encouraged by what the new leadership team has accomplished in the past couple of months, diagnosing the issue and putting an action plan in place that is already underway.
正如您從蒂博那裡聽到的那樣,第四季度的業績未達到我們的預期,因為美國皮膚健康和美容業務的店內執行未達到計劃。雖然我們預計不會在一夜之間恢復,但我對新領導團隊在過去幾個月中所取得的成就感到鼓舞,他們診斷了問題並製定了已經在進行的行動計劃。
Now getting to results. Fourth quarter organic sales declined 2.4%. It's important to consider our fourth quarter performance in the context of 6.2% organic growth last year, where we experienced outsized growth in Self Care, primarily driven by unprecedented demand for our OTC products. In this context, fourth quarter growth was 3.8% on a 2-year stack basis. Value realization contributed 5.8 points to fourth quarter growth, offset by a volume decline of 8.2 points.
現在正在得出結果。第四季有機銷售額下降 2.4%。重要的是要在去年有機增長 6.2% 的背景下考慮我們第四季度的業績,我們在自我護理方面經歷了大幅增長,這主要是由對我們的 OTC 產品前所未有的需求推動的。在此背景下,第四季的兩年成長率為 3.8%。價值實現為第四季度的成長貢獻了 5.8 個百分點,但被銷售量下降 8.2 個百分點所抵銷。
Let me deconstruct the volume decline as there are several unique drivers impacting volume that do not reflect the underlying strength of our brands. First, about 3 points come from lapping an early and strong cold, cough and flu season that drove double-digit organic growth last year. Further, this year saw a later start to the season, combined with approximately 15% lower incidence levels.
讓我來解釋一下銷售下降的原因,因為有幾個影響銷售的獨特驅動因素並不能反映我們品牌的潛在實力。首先,大約 3 個百分點來自於較早到來的強感冒、咳嗽和流感季節,這些季節推動了去年兩位數的有機成長。此外,今年的季節開始較晚,發病率降低了約 15%。
As we have shared previously, in parts of our OTC business, volume is characteristically linked to incidence levels, which can go up or down in any given season. For Kenvue, our focus is to be prepared to serve our consumers, while continuing to gain share, regardless of what the season may bring, and that is what you saw from us this quarter.
正如我們之前所分享的,在我們的部分非處方藥業務中,交易量通常與發病率相關,發病率在任何特定季節都可能上升或下降。對於 Kenvue 來說,我們的重點是做好為消費者服務的準備,同時繼續獲得份額,無論季節如何,這就是您本季從我們身上看到的。
Second, 2022 product discontinuations negatively impacted the quarter by about 1 point. Of note, as of the fourth quarter, we have fully lapped product discontinuations and do not expect to see any impact next year. Lastly, trade inventory reduction accounted for about 1 point, as retailers tighten their inventory levels.
其次,2022 年產品停產對該季度產生了約 1 個百分點的負面影響。值得注意的是,截至第四季度,我們已經完全接受了產品停產,預計明年不會產生任何影響。最後,由於零售商收緊庫存水平,貿易庫存減少約佔 1 個百分點。
In sum, a little over 5 points of volume decline is attributed to idiosyncratic elements of the fourth quarter, with the remaining 3 points mainly attributed to continued softness in China and our underperformance in U.S. Skin Health and Beauty, we have discussed.
總而言之,我們已經討論過,銷量下降略多於5 個百分點是由於第四季度的特殊因素造成的,其餘3 個百分點主要歸因於中國的持續疲軟以及我們在美國皮膚健康和美容業務的表現不佳。
For the full year, net sales grew 3.3% to $15.4 billion. Organic growth of 5% reflects the value realization of 7.7% and a volume decrease of 2.7%, of which approximately 2 points is attributed to the 2022 product discontinuations we have discussed all year and the suspension of personal care products in Russia through the first half.
全年淨銷售額成長 3.3%,達到 154 億美元。 5% 的自然成長反映了 7.7% 的價值實現和 2.7% 的銷售量下降,其中約 2 個百分點歸因於我們全年討論的 2022 年產品停產以及上半年俄羅斯個人護理產品的暫停。
When normalizing volume to exclude these 2 distinct items, volume was slightly down on nearly 8 points of value realization, demonstrating the low elasticity of our brands. You also see the power of the portfolio and the fact that private label penetration remained relatively flat throughout the year, even as consumers look to be trending down in other categories. These dynamics give us confidence in our ability to improve volume growth as we progress through 2024.
當標準化銷售量以排除這兩個不同的項目時,銷售量在價值實現的近 8 個點上略有下降,這表明我們品牌的彈性較低。您還可以看到該產品組合的力量,以及自有品牌滲透率全年保持相對平穩的事實,儘管消費者在其他類別上的趨勢似乎有所下降。這些動態讓我們對 2024 年提高銷售成長的能力充滿信心。
Moving to gross margins. Fourth quarter gross margin expanded 220 basis points to 59.5% and full year adjusted gross margin increased 30 basis points to 58.4%. As we have discussed with you previously, there are some nonrecurring items in our results, as we refine our accounting and reporting methodologies to be more comparable with our peers. Impacts from these refinements were a benefit of approximately 50 basis points in the fourth quarter and 10 basis points for the full year.
轉向毛利率。第四季毛利率成長 220 個基點至 59.5%,全年調整後毛利率成長 30 個基點至 58.4%。正如我們之前與您討論的那樣,我們的結果中有一些非經常性項目,因為我們改進了我們的會計和報告方法,以便與同行更具可比性。這些改進的影響是第四季約 50 個基點,全年約 10 個基點。
Inflationary headwinds moderated during the fourth quarter, as positive trends in logistics offset ongoing pressures in energy and wage inflation, while FX continued to pressure gross margin by about 1 point during the quarter and for the full year.
第四季通膨阻力有所緩和,因為物流的正面趨勢抵消了能源和薪資通膨的持續壓力,而外匯在本季和全年繼續對毛利率造成約 1 個百分點的壓力。
Turning to adjusted operating income. Fourth quarter adjusted operating income margin expanded 190 basis points and full year adjusted operating income margin was flat. Adjusted operating income margin benefited from the nonrecurring items I just spoke about by about 180 basis points for the quarter and 70 basis points for the year.
轉向調整後的營業收入。第四季調整後營業利潤率擴大了 190 個基點,全年調整後營業利潤率持平。調整後的營業利潤率受益於我剛才談到的非經常性項目,該季度提高了大約 180 個基點,全年提高了 70 個基點。
For taxes, our fourth quarter adjusted effective tax rate was 15.8%. The decrease versus prior year is primarily the result of tax law changes that negatively impacted 2022, the release of tax reserves, mostly due to statute of limitations expiring and benefits from effective tax planning. The full year adjusted effective tax rate was 23.4%. The decrease in adjusted effective tax rate versus prior year is primarily due to the release of tax reserves.
對於稅收,我們在第四季度調整後的有效稅率為 15.8%。與前一年相比減少的主要原因是稅法變更對 2022 年稅收儲備的釋放產生了負面影響,這主要是由於時效到期以及有效稅務規劃的好處。全年調整後有效稅率為23.4%。調整後有效稅率較上年下降主要是由於稅收儲備的釋放。
And finally, adjusted net income was $586 million for the quarter and $2.4 billion for the year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.31 for the quarter and $1.29 for the year, including an approximate $0.03 benefit from the nonrecurring items I spoke about.
最後,該季度調整後淨利為 5.86 億美元,全年調整後淨利為 24 億美元。調整後的季度稀釋每股收益為 0.31 美元,全年稀釋後每股收益為 1.29 美元,其中包括我談到的非經常性項目帶來的約 0.03 美元收益。
Now turning to cash and capital allocation. For the year, we generated $2.7 billion in free cash flow. It is worth noting that the free cash flow benefited from separation-related items and the timing of working capital at the end of the year. During the year, we demonstrated our commitment to disciplined capital allocation, as outlined during IPO. We strengthened our balance sheet, reduced our leverage and returned cash to our shareholders. We have executed on our capital allocation priorities, including a 64% dividend payout ratio and reducing our gross leverage from 2.5x to 2.2.
現在轉向現金和資本配置。今年,我們產生了 27 億美元的自由現金流。值得注意的是,自由現金流受益於離職相關項目以及年底營運資金的時機。在這一年裡,我們展示了我們對嚴格資本配置的承諾,正如首次公開募股期間所概述的那樣。我們加強了資產負債表,降低了槓桿率,並向股東返還了現金。我們已執行資本配置優先事項,包括 64% 的股息支付率,並將總槓桿率從 2.5 倍降低至 2.2 倍。
As you model 2024, it will be important to consider the working capital timing benefit in 2023 as well as the fact that we're retaining a full year of dividends and have a full year of interest expense, which brings me to the outlook for 2024.
在建立 2024 年模型時,重要的是要考慮 2023 年的營運資金時間效益,以及我們保留全年股息和全年利息支出的事實,這讓我對 2024 年的前景有了展望。
First, I want to echo Thibaut's point that we have strong conviction in our ability to execute our plan for the year. We have a clear strategy in place. And in 2024, we are focused on reaching more consumers, optimizing the way we work, to invest behind our brands and rewarding performance and impact. We will drive efficiencies through further investments in supply chain, technology and a recently implemented integrated business planning process. We will then redeploy the dollars generated from these operating efficiencies into consumer-facing brand support. Volume growth and market share capture will be of particular focus for this incremental investment. And finally, we will accelerate the exits of TSAs, establishing a new operating infrastructure that meets our needs as an independent company.
首先,我想重複蒂博的觀點,即我們對執行今年計劃的能力充滿信心。我們制定了明確的戰略。到 2024 年,我們的重點是吸引更多消費者、優化我們的工作方式、投資我們的品牌並獎勵績效和影響力。我們將透過對供應鏈、技術和最近實施的綜合業務規劃流程的進一步投資來提高效率。然後,我們將把這些營運效率產生的資金重新部署到面向消費者的品牌支援上。銷售成長和市場份額佔領將是這項增量投資的特別關注點。最後,我們將加速 TSA 的退出,建立新的營運基礎設施,以滿足我們作為獨立公司的需求。
In summary, it will be a year focused on enhanced engagement with consumers, while continuing our transition to a truly stand-alone entity. In 2024, we expect to achieve organic growth in the range of 2% to 4%. We expect quarterly organic sales growth to improve sequentially as we progress through the year and as compared to this, and impacts on the strategic initiatives that Thibaut outlined begin to materialize. We expect certain headwinds to continue in the first half of 2024, such as a lower flu season versus last year.
總之,今年將重點放在加強與消費者的互動,同時繼續向真正獨立的實體轉型。 2024年,我們預計將實現2%至4%的有機成長。我們預計,隨著全年的進展,季度有機銷售成長將連續改善,與此相比,蒂博概述的策略舉措的影響也將開始顯現。我們預計 2024 年上半年某些不利因素仍將持續,例如流感季節較去年減少。
Softness in China and persistent impact of in-store issues with our Skin Health and Beauty portfolio. However, as we accelerate investment behind our brands, particularly focused on in-store presence and prominence, enhancing consumer engagement and amplifying innovation, we expect to see growth accelerate as these actions begin to have more of an impact in the second half of the year.
中國市場的疲軟以及店內問題對我們皮膚健康和美容產品組合的持續影響。然而,隨著我們加快品牌背後的投資,特別是注重店內展示和知名度、增強消費者參與度和擴大創新,我們預計隨著這些行動在下半年開始產生更大影響,成長將加速。
We also think it's prudent to acknowledge that 2024 could be another volatile year as economic and geopolitical headlines impact consumer confidence. The lower end of our guidance reflects the potential for a weaker consumer and the possibility for all knowns in our seasonal businesses.
我們也認為,謹慎的做法是承認 2024 年可能又是動盪的一年,因為經濟和地緣政治頭條新聞會影響消費者信心。我們指導的下限反映了消費者疲軟的潛力以及我們季節性業務中所有人的可能性。
Looking to the first quarter, we expect organic growth to be about flat. While we don't plan to guide quarterly as part of our normal practice, given the outsized performance in the first quarter of 2023, which benefited from nonrecurring retailer inventory rebuilds, combined with a strong cold, cough and flu season, we thought it would be helpful to provide perspective on Q1.
展望第一季度,我們預計有機成長將持平。雖然我們不打算將季度指導作為正常做法的一部分,但考慮到2023 年第一季的出色業績(受益於非經常性零售商庫存重建,再加上強感冒、咳嗽和流感季節),我們認為這會有助於提供有關 Q1 的觀點。
Moving down the P&L. We expect to maintain a healthy gross margin profile, with adjusted gross profit margin expected to be closer to 2021 levels. We expect adjusted operating income margin to be slightly below last year. While the operating efficiency we spoke about begin to materialize, partially offsetting the increased investment in our brands that includes an approximately 15% increase in our marketing spend as well as the absorption of a full year of public company costs.
損益表向下移動。我們預計將保持健康的毛利率狀況,調整後的毛利率預計將接近 2021 年的水平。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將略低於去年。雖然我們談到的營運效率開始實現,但部分抵消了我們品牌投資的增加,其中包括我們行銷支出增加約 15% 以及吸收上市公司全年成本。
Regarding other guidance items and EPS. At current spot rates, we expect translational foreign currency impact of about 1 point to reported net sales. We expect net interest expense to be approximately $400 million, evenly split across quarters. We expect an adjusted tax rate of 25.5% to 26.5%, which reflects the changes in tax loss, primarily the enactment of Pillar 2 legislation adopting the OECD's global minimum tax.
關於其他指導項目和 EPS。依照目前的即期匯率,我們預期外幣換算對報告的淨銷售額的影響約為 1 個百分點。我們預計淨利息支出約為 4 億美元,各季度平均分配。我們預計調整後的稅率為25.5%至26.5%,這反映了稅收損失的變化,主要是採用經合組織全球最低稅的第二支柱立法的頒布。
Regarding EPS, assuming a full year 2024 weighted average share count of 1.92 billion shares, we expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.10 to $1.20. This range assumes about a $0.04 foreign exchange headwind based on current rates.
關於每股盈餘,假設 2024 年全年加權平均股數為 19.2 億股,我們預期調整後每股盈餘將在 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元之間。根據目前匯率,該範圍假設外匯逆風約為 0.04 美元。
To show a comparable view across years, we have included a slide in our presentation that outlines a rebased starting point for 2024. In other words, a like-for-like view as we've been a public company for the entirety of 2023. This rebased view includes a full year of public company costs, a full year of interest expense and a normalized tax rate and share count. At the midpoint, our earnings per share guidance is about flat when comparing to the rebased 2023 adjusted diluted EPS.
為了展示多年來的可比較觀點,我們在簡報中加入了一張投影片,概述了2024 年重新設定的起點。換句話說,這是一個類似的觀點,因為我們在2023 年全年都是一家上市公司。這個重新調整的視圖包括全年上市公司成本、全年利息支出以及標準化稅率和股票數量。與重新調整基準的 2023 年調整後稀釋每股盈餘相比,我們的每股盈餘指引中位數大致持平。
In closing, we are proud of what we have achieved in our first year of Kenvue, while also acknowledging challenges in our Skin Health and Beauty business that we have plans in place to improve. As for 2024, our priorities are reaching more consumers, freeing up resources to invest behind our brands and fostering a culture that rewards performance and the impact. Thank you.
最後,我們對 Kenvue 第一年所取得的成就感到自豪,同時也承認我們的皮膚健康和美容業務面臨的挑戰,我們已製定計劃予以改善。到 2024 年,我們的首要任務是吸引更多消費者,釋放資源來投資我們的品牌,並培養獎勵績效和影響力的文化。謝謝。
And with that, we'll take your questions.
接下來,我們將回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank.
(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂芬鮑爾斯(Stephen Powers)。
Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst
Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst
Maybe I can start, just on the top line. I think just given the momentum we have exiting '23, I think some people could look at the call for flat organic in the first quarter, given the comparisons as ambitious and also the 2% to 4% for the full year is potentially ambitious.
也許我可以從最上面開始。我認為,考慮到我們退出 23 年的勢頭,我認為有些人可能會考慮第一季有機統一的呼籲,因為比較雄心勃勃,而且全年 2% 到 4% 的增長也可能是雄心勃勃的。
So maybe just a little bit more color on your visibility to that organic forecast and some of the building blocks that we should be looking for as we get into the year.
因此,也許您對有機預測的可見性以及我們在進入這一年時應該尋找的一些構建模組的可見性有更多的色彩。
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Yes, sure. Steve, Regarding your question on the top line and our ambitions for 2024. We continue to see our categories growing 3% to 4% in '24 and beyond. Our guidance for 2024 reflects a range of scenarios. It does embed a sequential improvement as we move through the year and as we lap the unusual compares of 2023 that we talked about, but also the fact that we expect our increased investment and the plans that I outlined earlier, generate impact, especially in the second half of the year.
是的,當然。 Steve,關於您提出的最重要的問題以及我們 2024 年的目標。我們預計我們的品類在 2024 年及以後將增長 3% 至 4%。我們對 2024 年的指導反映了一系列情境。隨著這一年的進展以及我們討論的 2023 年不尋常的比較,它確實嵌入了連續的改進,但事實上,我們預計我們增加的投資和我之前概述的計劃會產生影響,特別是在下半年。
So that's what makes us confident in our plan for the year. But we also think it's prudent to acknowledge some of the dynamics at play in 2024, and that's why our guidance also contemplates certain headwinds that could materialize, such as further softness in China, the time it will take to improve in-store execution in Skin as well as the possibility for (inaudible) seasonal businesses. But I reiterate that we are confident in our plans for the year.
這就是我們對今年計劃充滿信心的原因。但我們也認為,承認 2024 年的一些動態是明智的,這就是為什麼我們的指引也考慮了可能出現的某些不利因素,例如中國的進一步疲軟、改善 Skin 店內執行所需的時間以及(聽不見清)季節性業務的可能性。但我重申,我們對今年的計畫充滿信心。
Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst
Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst
Okay. Very good, very good. And then maybe this is for Paul on the margin forecast. I guess just some clarifications. The press release talked about the strong gross margin outlook that you talked about just a few minutes ago as well. And then -- but it contemplates 50 basis points of FX headwinds.
好的。非常好,非常好。也許這就是保羅對利潤率的預測。我想只是一些澄清。新聞稿也談到了您幾分鐘前談到的強勁毛利率前景。然後——但它考慮了 50 個基點的外匯逆風。
I just wanted to clarify, is that 50 basis points all within SG&A? And if maybe you can give some color as to the drivers of that transactional headwind in SG&A, number one? And number two, you talked about year-over-year rates of increase in advertising. I'm just -- I guess I'm a little curious as to where we finished '23.
我只是想澄清一下,這 50 個基點都在 SG&A 範圍內嗎?您能否對第一個 SG&A 中交易逆風的驅動因素給出一些解釋?第二,您談到了廣告的年成長率。我只是——我想我有點好奇我們 23 賽季的成績。
I don't know if you can -- I'm sure it's going to be in the K, but maybe just give a little color on where advertising finished as a percentage of sales in '23 and how you expect that to trend into '24?
我不知道你是否可以——我確信它會出現在 K 中,但也許只是對 23 年廣告完成情況佔銷售額的百分比以及你期望它如何趨向於進行一些說明。24?
Paul Ruh - CFO
Paul Ruh - CFO
In regards to your first part of the question, yes, we are very pleased with our gross margin trajectory. As you know, and Thibaut mentioned, we have developed a muscle in terms of continued sustained gross profit margin enhancement. And the FX that I talked about is embedded in gross margin and also in SG&A, but primarily in gross margin.
關於你問題的第一部分,是的,我們對我們的毛利率軌跡非常滿意。如你所知,蒂博也提到過,我們在毛利率持續提升方面已經發展壯大。我談到的外匯包含在毛利率和銷售管理費用中,但主要是在毛利率中。
To your second question, year-over-year rates of advertising, we will disclose advertising in our K. Advertising year-over-year versus '22 was slightly down. But I can tell you that we have very strong plans to increase our advertising. I mentioned 15%, where approximately $300 million more that will seal the progressive growth enhancement that Thibaut talked about.
對於你的第二個問題,廣告的同比率,我們將在我們的 K 中披露廣告。與 22 年相比,廣告同比略有下降。但我可以告訴你,我們有非常強大的計劃來增加我們的廣告。我提到了 15%,即大約 3 億美元,這將確保蒂博談到的逐步成長增強。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Anna Lizzul of Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。
Anna Jeanne Lizzul - Research Analyst
Anna Jeanne Lizzul - Research Analyst
I wanted to ask on Q4 Skin Health and Beauty. I know you said the volume weakness was mostly driven by the U.S. But can you be more specific on how much of the weakness was driven by China on Dr. Di:Labo? And are you expecting this to recover in Q1 in terms of your guidance?
我想問Q4皮膚健康和美容。我知道您說過,Dr. Di:Labo 的銷量疲軟主要是由美國造成的,但是您能否更具體地說明一下,Dr. Di:Labo 的銷量疲軟有多少是由中國造成的?根據您的指導,您預計這一情況會在第一季恢復嗎?
And then also in the U.S., on Skin Health and Beauty, in Q3, you had highlighted some innovation in Sun Care for Neutrogena, which helped last quarter that volumes saw a significant deceleration here in Q4. So in terms of the recovery in disruption, where are you at in your conversations with retailers?
然後在美國,在第三季度的皮膚健康和美容方面,您強調了露得清防曬霜方面的一些創新,這有助於上個季度第四季度的銷量大幅下降。那麼,就中斷的恢復而言,您與零售商的對話進展如何?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
So let me answer your question on skin health and where -- what do we see in China and the U.S. So in China, we saw a weak demand for our brands, especially Dr. Ci:Labo, due to PR issues that you are familiar with.
因此,讓我回答您關於皮膚健康的問題以及我們在中國和美國看到的情況。因此,在中國,由於您熟悉的公關問題,我們看到對我們品牌的需求疲軟,尤其是Dr. Ci: Labo和。
We believe that these PR issues are dissipating as we speak. But we are going to be thoughtful about continuing to monitor how the categories are doing, how the consumer sentiment is going in China. And while we are going to see gradual recovery in '24, we are not contemplating in our guidance a strong recovery, especially in the first half of the year in our Skin Care brands in China.
我們相信,就在我們說話的時候,這些公關問題正在消失。但我們將認真考慮繼續監控各品類的表現以及中國消費者信心的變化。雖然我們將在 24 年看到逐步復甦,但我們的指導中並未考慮強勁復甦,特別是在今年上半年我們在中國的護膚品牌。
I remind you that China is about 7% of our revenue as a total company, but we have our total portfolio represented in China, and Skin Health is not the largest part of our portfolio in China.
我提醒您,中國市場約占我們公司總收入的 7%,但我們的總投資組合都在中國,而皮膚健康並不是我們在中國投資組合的最大部分。
Regarding the U.S., we had an ambitious recovery plan in Q4. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we -- the outcome of this plan was not what we expected. What's good is that we understand exactly what is going on. Our brands are healthy. Neutrogena, for example, is -- has a very high penetration in the U.S. Online sales are doing well. We grew double digit on Amazon with a brand like Neutrogena, for example. So what we really need to improve is execution, and Jan and his team are laser-focused on improving this execution.
關於美國,我們在第四季制定了雄心勃勃的復甦計畫。正如我在準備好的演講中所說,我們——這個計劃的結果不是我們所期望的。好處是我們清楚地了解正在發生的事情。我們的品牌是健康的。例如,露得清 (Neutrogena) 在美國的滲透率非常高,線上銷售表現良好。例如,我們的露得清 (Neutrogena) 品牌在亞馬遜上實現了兩位數的成長。所以我們真正需要改進的是執行力,Jan 和他的團隊正專注於改善這種執行力。
And it's going to be broad-based. It goes beyond just distribution, but it starts with our in-store presence and prominence. And here, I'm talking about better on-shelf execution, increasing displays, increasing fixtures, updating the packaging where needed to make our range easier to shop, making sure that we have the price pack architecture everywhere and ultimately, making it easier for our customers or for our consumers to shop in-store for their needs.
而且它將具有廣泛的基礎。它不僅僅是分銷,而是從我們在店內的存在和知名度開始。在這裡,我談論的是更好的貨架執行,增加展示,增加固定裝置,在需要時更新包裝以使我們的產品系列更容易購買,確保我們在任何地方都有價格包架構,最終使消費者更容易購買。我們的客戶或我們的消費者在店內購物以滿足他們的需求。
It's also about engaging with consumers in a bigger way than what we did in 2023. We have industry-leading ROI on the advertising. So really '24 is about increasing the reach and frequency of our engagement activities -- brand activation activities with both consumer and health care professionals. We are going to put more products in their hands, think about samples, because we know that once they try our product, they'll love them.
它還以比 2023 年更廣泛的方式與消費者互動。我們在廣告方面擁有行業領先的投資回報率。因此,「24」實際上是為了增加我們參與活動的範圍和頻率,即與消費者和醫療保健專業人士進行的品牌活化活動。我們會把更多的產品放在他們手中,考慮樣品,因為我們知道一旦他們嘗試了我們的產品,他們就會喜歡它們。
And lastly, we will deploy innovation at a bigger scale, amplifying our 2023 programs, and we are excited about what we have in the plan for 2024 in terms of innovation. And retailers are excited about it as well.
最後,我們將更大規模地部署創新,擴大我們的 2023 年計劃,我們對 2024 年計劃中的創新計劃感到興奮。零售商也對此感到興奮。
So it's -- in a nutshell, it's a heightened focused -- a heightened focus, more precision around execution, more presence with consumers, amplified innovation. As I said, it's not going to happen overnight. The recovery will not be linear, but we are confident that this stronger plan will help stabilize the business. And with, again, a higher level of precision in execution, we expect growth to -- in '24 to definitely be ahead of '23.
所以,簡而言之,這是一種高度的專注——高度的專注,更精確的執行,更多地與消費者接觸,放大的創新。正如我所說,這不會在一夜之間發生。復甦不會是線性的,但我們相信這項更強有力的計畫將有助於穩定業務。而且,隨著執行精度的提高,我們預計 24 年的成長肯定會領先 23 年。
Anna Jeanne Lizzul - Research Analyst
Anna Jeanne Lizzul - Research Analyst
Great. That's super helpful. And if I can ask a follow-up on health care. In Q4, just outside of cold, cough and flu, could you comment on the rest of the portfolio? I think you had mentioned last quarter you were seeing some gains in your other categories. So I was wondering if there are some bright spots there? Or if they were also somewhat of a drag in the quarter?
偉大的。這非常有幫助。我能否詢問有關醫療保健的後續情況。在第四季度,除了感冒、咳嗽和流感之外,您能對投資組合的其餘部分發表評論嗎?我想您在上個季度提到您在其他類別中看到了一些收益。所以我想知道那裡是否有一些亮點?或者說它們是否也在本季造成了一定程度的拖累?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Yes, it's a great question because we talk a lot about the season and Paul described very well the dynamics there and how pleased we are with our performance during the season, but the strength of our leadership position doesn't happen by accident. It's an outcome of a lot of work that permits throughout the entire Self Care portfolio, and that's true for analgesics, but it's also true for allergy, for digestive health, for smoking cessation.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,因為我們談論了很多關於本賽季的事情,保羅很好地描述了那裡的動態以及我們對本賽季表現的滿意程度,但我們的領導地位的增強並不是偶然的。這是整個自我照護產品組合中大量工作的成果,對於止痛藥來說是這樣,對於過敏、消化健康和戒菸也是如此。
And in these other areas of the business, we are very pleased with our performance. We see continued performance in smoking cessation, good performance in digestive health. Allergy, while we had lower incidences, strong share gains or innovation like Zyrtec chewables continues to do very well. So our strong performance in Self Care is broad-based across the portfolio.
在這些其他業務領域,我們對我們的表現非常滿意。我們看到在戒菸方面的持續表現,在消化健康方面的良好表現。過敏,雖然我們的發病率較低,但強勁的份額增長或像 Zyrtec 咀嚼片這樣的創新仍然表現出色。因此,我們在自我照護方面的強勁表現在整個投資組合中具有廣泛的基礎。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
I have a question and a follow-up. Thibaut, can you elaborate more on the time of the displays? You just mentioned the fixtures and the shelf space recovery in the U.S., in particular, ahead of the spring I heard that a large retailer is probably moving some of the beauty resets into the summer.
我有一個問題和後續行動。 Thibaut,您能詳細說明一下展示的時間嗎?您剛才提到了美國的固定裝置和貨架空間恢復,特別是在春季之前,我聽說一家大型零售商可能會將一些美容重置移至夏季。
Is that impacting your expectations, number one? And number two, like you had mentioned you're seeing progress throughout the year, which obviously has to do also with the comps. But is it fair to assume flat to slightly negative Q1 or first half of the year for organic turning positive potential inflecting in Q2? And then the second half of the year is where we should be able to see significant progress on that?
第一,這會影響你的期望嗎?第二,就像你提到的,你在這一年中看到了進步,這顯然也與比較有關。但假設第一季或上半年持平或略有負值,第二季有機轉正的潛力是否公平?那麼下半年我們應該能夠看到這方面的重大進展?
And a follow-up, in terms of the shipments against consumption on POS, I know it's hard to really focus on Nielsen, but unfortunately, that's what we can see in terms of consumption. Should investors expect that, that track channel data will remain weak for most of the first half of the year and should start to see better trends towards June and July, given the reset?
後續,就 POS 消費的出貨量而言,我知道很難真正關注尼爾森,但不幸的是,這就是我們在消費方面可以看到的情況。投資人是否應該預期,在今年上半年的大部分時間裡,軌道通道數據將保持疲軟,考慮到重置,到 6 月和 7 月應該開始看到更好的趨勢?
Are you confident that with the innovation that you called upon all the work that you have done to simplify the SKUs and also lapping those SKU simplifications, which is probably going to be a tailwind, all else equal? So should we be seeing slightly better than progress as you look in the first quarter against fourth quarter?
您是否有信心透過您為簡化 SKU 所做的所有工作而進行的創新,以及在其他條件相同的情況下,對這些 SKU 簡化進行最佳化(這可能會變成順風)?那麼,從第一季與第四季的情況來看,我們是否應該看到比進步稍好一點的情況呢?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
That's a big question, Andrea. So -- and it's an important one. So let me unpack your question in terms of phasing in what we would -- what we plan to see unfolding in Skin Health and Beauty for the year.
這是一個大問題,安德里亞。所以——這是一個重要的事情。因此,讓我從我們將在今年皮膚健康和美容領域看到的分階段發展的角度來解答您的問題。
First of all, I think the way you are describing the year is directionally correct. We are not guiding by segment, by quarter. But I think the way to describe the phasing throughout the year is directionally correct and in line with the way we see it.
首先,我認為你描述這一年的方式是正確的。我們不按細分市場、按季度進行指導。但我認為描述全年分階段的方式是方向正確的,並且符合我們的看法。
Given the noise you have in the comps, you talked about the impact of discontinuation, the suspension of our sales in Russia in the first half of the year, these are going to be tailwinds for -- in terms of growth rate, but we have headwinds like, for example, in Q1, the large replenishments we saw in retailer inventory once we got out of the majority of our supply chain issue in the back half of '22. That's going to be a headwind for us.
考慮到您在比較中的噪音,您談到了停產的影響,上半年我們在俄羅斯的銷售暫停,這些將成為增長率的順風車,但我們有逆風,例如,在第一季度,我們在22 年下半年擺脫了大部分供應鏈問題後,看到零售商庫存大量補貨。這對我們來說將是一個逆風。
So if -- but if you exclude these comp dynamics, what we are laser-focused as an organization is deploying the plan that I just highlighted, and making sure that we execute with precision. That does include the stronger presence in-store, but that also includes amplifying our reach to consumers and health care professionals.
因此,如果排除這些競爭動態,作為一個組織,我們重點關注的是部署我剛才強調的計劃,並確保我們精確執行。這確實包括增強店內影響力,但也包括擴大我們對消費者和醫療保健專業人士的影響力。
And so that's where you will have different phasing of the impact of these different aspects of the plan throughout the year. I can tell you that we are executing our higher investment plan in terms of media as of January. So you will see a lag, as we all know, between the spend in advertising and the consumption that has already started in terms of in-store activation that will happen throughout the year depending on the rhythm each retailer has.
因此,全年計劃的這些不同方面的影響將分為不同階段。我可以告訴你,從一月開始,我們正在執行媒體方面更高的投資計畫。因此,眾所周知,您會看到廣告支出與店內激活方面已經開始的消費之間存在滯後,這種滯後將在全年發生,具體取決於每個零售商的節奏。
So we are laser-focused on executing these building blocks. You also mentioned that we are doing very well online, where the brand experience is very strong, and we grew the brand, like Neutrogena, double digit. That's something that is not easy for you to track, but that continues to be a source of strength for us. And so we are laser-focused on the tracked channel, if you will, which is what you see and which is where we have the biggest area for improvement.
因此,我們專注於執行這些建置模組。您也提到,我們在網路上做得很好,品牌體驗非常強,我們的品牌成長了,就像露得清一樣,成長了兩位數。這對你來說並不容易追踪,但這仍然是我們的力量來源。因此,如果您願意的話,我們將重點放在追蹤通道上,這就是您所看到的,也是我們需要改進的最大領域。
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD
And then that's helpful. If I can squeeze one question for Paul in terms of like the cadence for gross margin. You did call out the TSA/TMA phasing, and I understand it's about $100 million potential savings. Is that fully included in potentially the second half? Should we think about, okay, part of it be impacted in this outlook for operating margin being flattish given all the investments that you're making?
這很有幫助。我能否向保羅提出一個問題,例如毛利率的節奏。您確實提到了 TSA/TMA 分階段實施,據我了解,這可能節省約 1 億美元。這是否完全包含在下半年?我們是否應該考慮一下,考慮到您正在進行的所有投資,營業利潤率的前景會受到部分影響嗎?
So in other words, whatever you gain this year is going to be reinvested into marketing, and the 15% that you called out in A&P. And then you're still going to have more benefit into 2025. Is that the way we should be thinking?
換句話說,無論今年你獲得什麼,都將重新投資於行銷,以及你在 A&P 中投入的 15%。然後到 2025 年您仍然會獲得更多收益。我們應該這樣思考嗎?
Paul Ruh - CFO
Paul Ruh - CFO
Yes, directionally correct, Andrea. Thank you for your question. As you know, gross margin is the result of several elements, including value realization. We have about 60% of the value realization as a carryover from last year, and we will take surgical pricing in addition to another 40%. So that's one in addition to premiumization and mix, and also the efficiency that we talked about.
是的,方向正確,安德里亞。謝謝你的問題。如您所知,毛利率是多種因素的結果,其中包括價值實現。我們大約有 60% 的價值實現是去年的結轉,除了另外 40% 之外,我們還將採取手術定價。這是除了高端化和混合化之外,也是我們談論的效率的補充之一。
In addition, of course, you have the inflation and ForEx impact. Inflation is still positive, but it's coming down. So you will see a progression to contribution to gross margin enhancement in terms of that inflation. We're exiting TSAs as we speak. Day by day, we're talking about hundreds of TSAs, and that impact both our gross profit line and also our operating income line, and those are spread throughout the year, where you will be seeing is the investment starting right out of the gate.
此外,當然還有通貨膨脹和外匯的影響。通貨膨脹仍然為正,但正在下降。因此,您將看到通貨膨脹對毛利率提高的貢獻不斷增加。就在我們說話的時候,我們正在退出 TSA。日復一日,我們談論數百個 TSA,這既影響我們的毛利線,也影響我們的營業收入線,而且這些影響貫穿全年,您將看到投資一開始就開始。
Some of that will take -- will bear fruits later, if it's more equity advertising or promotional spend will deliver the benefits in the shorter term. So that's how we see the cadence. So it's definitely more of a -- it's a balance with an enhancement towards the second half, and we intend to continue that into 2025. When going into '25, but that philosophy of heightened investment should continue beyond '24.
其中一些將在以後產生成果,如果更多的股權廣告或促銷支出將在短期內帶來好處。這就是我們如何看待節奏。因此,這絕對是一種平衡,下半年會有增強,我們打算將這種情況延續到 2025 年。進入 25 年時,但增加投資的理念應該持續到 24 年之後。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Filippo Falorni of Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。
Filippo Falorni - VP
Filippo Falorni - VP
I wanted to go back to the question on marketing investment. I think the initial plan was to spend more in 2023. But I think, Paul, you said advertising was slightly down in 2023. So maybe what drove, I guess, the decline?
我想回到行銷投資的問題。我認為最初的計劃是在 2023 年增加支出。但我認為,保羅,你說 2023 年廣告支出略有下降。那麼我猜是什麼推動了下降?
And then as you think about the investment into 2024, can you give us a little bit more concrete examples of where you're spending the advertising by product, by category and your expected ROI on those investments?
然後,當您考慮到 2024 年的投資時,您能否給我們一些更具體的例子,說明您按產品、類別劃分的廣告支出以及這些投資的預期投資回報率?
Paul Ruh - CFO
Paul Ruh - CFO
Yes. Let me start with the first part of the question, and maybe I'll turn it over to Thibaut for your second one.
是的。讓我從問題的第一部分開始,也許我會把它交給蒂博來回答你的第二部分。
Particularly, the investment in advertising, yes, was slightly down year-over-year, and that was primarily the result of a reduction in Asia Pacific, where we did not see investable propositions in towards the back half of the year.
特別是,廣告投資確實同比略有下降,這主要是亞太地區投資減少的結果,我們在今年下半年沒有看到可投資的建議。
But looking into 2024, investing in our brand is a key priority to fulfill the growth. I mentioned approximately 15% is about $300 million more. We want to start out of the gate. And the most important thing is our philosophy of maximizing ROI is what we're going after. And that it will be applied to all the categories as long as we see those investable propositions, and we maximize ROI across the portfolio. Thibaut, anything you want to add?
但展望 2024 年,投資我們的品牌是實現成長的首要任務。我提到大約 15% 大約多出 3 億美元。我們想從大門開始。最重要的是我們追求投資報酬率最大化的理念。只要我們看到那些可投資的主張,它就會應用於所有類別,並且我們可以最大限度地提高整個投資組合的投資報酬率。蒂博,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Yes. And Filippo, this additional -- this overall investment is broad-based to activate our brands with consumers and with health care professionals. So I remind you that our advertising line only captures part of our investment to activate brands as everything that's related to health care professional engagement is not reflected in that line.
是的。 Filippo,這項額外的整體投資基礎廣泛,旨在向消費者和醫療保健專業人士啟動我們的品牌。因此,我提醒您,我們的廣告系列僅捕獲了我們用於激活品牌的投資的一部分,因為與醫療保健專業參與相關的所有內容都沒有反映在該系列中。
In 2024, we are going to increase our investment in both areas. And we are going to apply this additional investment across the portfolio, but very focused behind our 15 priority brands that I highlighted in my prepared remarks.
2024年,我們將增加在這兩個領域的投資。我們將在整個投資組合中應用這筆額外的投資,但重點關注我在準備好的演講中強調的 15 個優先品牌。
So a very focused plan, but with more fuel behind a philosophy that Paul highlighted of extremely high ROI. We have I believe, industry-leading ROIs on our marketing investment. These are the capabilities that we have developed over the years with state-of-the-art analytics systems and capabilities.
這是一個非常有針對性的計劃,但保羅強調的極高投資報酬率的理念背後有更多的動力。我相信,我們的行銷投資具有業界領先的投資報酬率。這些是我們多年來利用最先進的分析系統和功能開發的功能。
So we intend to continue to use this disciplined approach to deploy a higher level of dollars. And so that's, once again, what makes us confident in our ability to deliver the plan we outlined this year.
因此,我們打算繼續使用這種嚴格的方法來部署更高水準的美元。因此,這再次讓我們對實現今年概述的計劃的能力充滿信心。
Filippo Falorni - VP
Filippo Falorni - VP
Got it. And then if I can follow up quickly on the Skin Health and Beauty segment. That is a segment that has been underperforming over the last couple of quarters. You mentioned, obviously, this quarter, the challenges. I guess can you review a little bit more like what are you changing in the way you manage this business? And what gives you the confidence in the improvement as you get through 2024 for Skin Health and Beauty?
知道了。然後我是否可以快速跟進皮膚健康和美容部分。這是過去幾季表現不佳的細分市場。顯然,您提到了本季的挑戰。我想你能回顧一下你管理這項業務的方式有什麼改變嗎?是什麼讓您對 2024 年皮膚健康和美容的改善充滿信心?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Yes, Filippo, what's very clear about Skin Health and Beauty is that the opportunities to improve are really isolated to 2 areas -- 2 important areas, but 2 areas. One is the China market. And the other one is, I would say, in-store performance in the U.S. So our plan is laser focused to improve our performance in these 2 areas, while we continue to fuel growth in the other areas where it's working well, namely Europe and Latin America.
是的,Filippo,關於皮膚健康和美容非常清楚的是,改善的機會實際上被隔離在兩個領域——兩個重要領域,但兩個領域。一是中國市場。我想說,另一個是美國的店內業績。因此,我們的計劃重點是提高這兩個領域的業績,同時我們繼續推動其他運作良好的地區的成長,即歐洲和拉丁美洲。
So in China, it's not entirely in our hands, and that's why I talked about our position to thoughtfully track how the categories are developing in that market, make sure that we do not invest ahead of the curve to get a strong return. So we are monitoring consumer sentiment.
因此,在中國,這並不完全掌握在我們手中,這就是為什麼我談到了我們的立場,即仔細跟踪各個類別在該市場的發展情況,確保我們不會為了獲得豐厚的回報而提前投資。因此,我們正在監測消費者情緒。
And as we see the right conditions for our skin care brand in China, we will invest appropriately. In the U.S. in-store, what's different in '23 -- in '24 compared to '23 is a higher level of precision in the execution, the heightened focus. I can tell you that many people in the organization are focused on this plan.
當我們看到我們的護膚品牌在中國的合適條件時,我們將進行適當的投資。在美國店內,「23」-「24」與「23」的不同之處在於執行的精確度更高,焦點更集中。我可以告訴你,組織裡有很多人都在關注這個計畫。
The plan that Jan, our new leader for North America, and his team, with the support of the entire organization have put together and started executing as we speak, is very precise, and this heightened focus, increased level of precision and higher level of investment. Again, we would expect this to deliver stronger results, especially in the back half of the year.
我們北美區的新任領導者 Jan 和他的團隊在整個組織的支持下制定並開始執行的計劃非常精確,這種高度集中、精確度更高、執行力更高的水平投資。同樣,我們預計這將帶來更強勁的業績,尤其是在今年下半年。
It's not going to happen overnight. But over time, we are confident that we are going to see the full potential of our brands being unleashed in that market.
這不會在一夜之間發生。但隨著時間的推移,我們相信我們將看到我們品牌的全部潛力在該市場上得到釋放。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Susan Anderson of Canaccord Genuity.
我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Susan Anderson。
Alec Edward Legg - Associate
Alec Edward Legg - Associate
Alec Legg for Susan. But on the gross margin, you said you expect it to get to fiscal '21 levels. I guess, what are the key drivers of those gains in fiscal '24 versus '21? And how should we think about how that progresses through the year?
亞歷克萊格飾演蘇珊。但就毛利率而言,您表示預計將達到 21 財年的水平。我想,與 21 財年相比,24 財年這些收益的主要驅動因素是什麼?我們該如何思考這一年的進展?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thank you, Alec. And it's a great question, and one that I'm happy to talk about because this is an area of strength for Kenvue. And we've been on this journey of increasing our margins and enhancing our margins through a complete suite of levers that include value realization and efficiencies throughout the value chain since 2019.
謝謝你,亞歷克。這是一個很好的問題,我很樂意談論這個問題,因為這是 Kenvue 的優勢領域。自 2019 年以來,我們一直在透過一整套槓桿手段(包括整個價值鏈的價值實現和效率)來提高利潤率。
I would actually say that we are managing our gross margin profile in a very competitive way. And I would say, above average compared to our industry peers. If you think about the dynamics of the balance of the year, I would continue to see all those things: continued value realization, mix management, premiumization.
事實上,我想說的是,我們正在以一種非常有競爭力的方式管理我們的毛利率。我想說,與我們的同行相比,高於平均水平。如果你考慮今年餘下的動態,我會繼續看到所有這些事情:持續的價值實現、組合管理、高端化。
We are starting to see some of the tailwinds of the inflation now that were previously headwinds. Although we still have ForEx, something that we are mindful of, the efficiencies that we have in place and the discipline that we have in terms of managing that value chain will allow us to continue to -- in this journey of driving gross margin enhancement.
我們現在開始看到一些以前是逆風的通膨順風。儘管我們仍然擁有 ForEx,但我們要牢記這一點,我們在管理價值鏈方面的效率和紀律將使我們能夠繼續推動毛利率提高的旅程。
Alec Edward Legg - Associate
Alec Edward Legg - Associate
And then potentially a quick follow-up. Are you able to comment on the Acetaminophen lawsuit? It seems like the judge had a positive ruling for the defendants.
然後可能會進行快速跟進。您能對對乙醯胺酚訴訟發表評論嗎?看來法官對被告做出了積極的裁決。
Tina Romani - Head of IR
Tina Romani - Head of IR
Yes, we really don't have any update there. We're going through the process to dismiss the MDL.
是的,我們確實沒有任何更新。我們正在經歷撤銷 MDL 的流程。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Navann Ty of BNP Paribas.
我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Navann Ty。
Navann Ty Dietschi - Analyst
Navann Ty Dietschi - Analyst
So we understand low marketing expense drove the underperformance in the product activation. But was there something else, such as not the right product to play or maybe the packaging, not highlighting enough the health care recommendation would be helpful to know? And what are the right levels of overall SG&A and maybe R&D to address that?
因此,我們知道低行銷費用導致了產品啟動表現不佳。但是否還有其他問題,例如不適合玩的產品或包裝,沒有足夠突出醫療保健建議將有助於了解?整體SG&A 以及研發的正確程度是多少才能解決這個問題?
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Yes, let me take this one. I think overall, the execution of our recovery plan in the fourth quarter fell short of expectations on the number of elements that I talked about. In a nutshell, it's making sure that our brands are more prominent in store, easier to shop and supported by the appropriate level of engagement activities, both at the consumer and health care professional level.
是的,讓我拿走這個。我認為總體而言,我們第四季度復甦計畫的執行情況在我談到的要素數量上沒有達到預期。簡而言之,它確保我們的品牌在商店中更加突出,更容易購物,並得到消費者和醫療保健專業人士層面適當水平的參與活動的支持。
While all these elements were included in the plan, the level of investment or the precision of the execution was not what we expected, and the outcome was not what we expected.
雖然所有這些要素都包含在計劃中,但投資水準或執行的精確度並不是我們預期的,結果也不是我們預期的。
Now lessons learned. This -- all these lessons are included in the buildup of the plan for 2024. And that's why you see us in the U.S., executing a plan that is different from what we had in 2023 in these different dimensions. And so you will see this broad-based activation plan put in place.
現在吸取教訓了。所有這些經驗教訓都包含在 2024 年計劃的構建中。這就是為什麼你會看到我們在美國執行的計劃在這些不同方面與 2023 年的計劃不同。因此,您將看到這個廣泛基礎的激活計劃已經到位。
But I would say, if you think about the 3 priorities I outlined for the company more broadly in 2024, you will see a different Kenvue in 2024 compared to what you saw in 2023. It's going to be our first full year as an independent company. And so you will see, especially our 15 priority brands, being activated at a much higher level in 2024, with strong building blocks across these 15 brands and across 3 segments.
但我想說,如果你更廣泛地思考我為公司在2024 年概述的3 個優先事項,你會發現2024 年的Kenvue 與2023 年有所不同。這將是我們作為一家獨立公司的第一個完整的一年。因此,您會看到,尤其是我們的 15 個優先品牌,將在 2024 年以更高的水平被激活,這 15 個品牌和 3 個細分市場都有強大的構建模組。
You are going to see us being much more agile and moving with speed and urgency to capitalize on all the opportunities we see in the market and unleash the full potential of our portfolio. That requires investment. That investment is going to be fueled by the continued -- and that was accelerated gross profit margin enhancement that Paul referred to.
您將看到我們變得更加敏捷,並且快速且緊迫地利用我們在市場上看到的所有機會,並釋放我們投資組合的全部潛力。這需要投資。這項投資將受到保羅提到的持續加速毛利率提高的推動。
As we exit our TSAs with Johnson & Johnson, it's also an opportunity for us to reinvent the way we work, work faster, better, make it easier for our teams to operate, but also do it at a lower cost base. And this combination of expanded margin and efficiencies in the organization is what's going to fuel this investment and allow us to fuel growth in 2024.
當我們退出與強生公司的 TSA 時,這也是我們重塑工作方式的機會,讓工作更快、更好,讓我們的團隊更輕鬆地運營,同時還能以更低的成本進行操作。組織中利潤率的擴大和效率的提高將推動這項投資,並使我們能夠在 2024 年推動成長。
Now the year will be a bit noisy for the -- due to the unusual compares we have in 2023. But if you look at the underlying strength of the business and the building blocks we have to drive growth in 2024 and profitable growth in 2024 and bring our long-term algo to life, we are confident in our plans.
現在,由於我們在 2023 年進行了不尋常的比較,這一年將會有點吵鬧。但如果你看看業務的潛在實力和構建模組,我們必須推動 2024 年的增長和 2024 年的盈利增長,將我們的長期演算法變為現實,我們對我們的計劃充滿信心。
Navann Ty Dietschi - Analyst
Navann Ty Dietschi - Analyst
Can I ask actually a follow-up on the litigation? If you can discuss at all the next steps to end the litigation?
我可以詢問訴訟的後續情況嗎?您是否可以討論結束訴訟的所有後續步驟?
Tina Romani - Head of IR
Tina Romani - Head of IR
Yes, Navann, like I said, there's really not much I can share. We're going through the process. Now that the court has granted our motion to exclude expert testimony, so we're going through the process through -- to allow the court to determine whether the cases are dismissed.
是的,納文,就像我說的,我真的沒什麼可以分享的。我們正在經歷這個過程。現在法院已經批准了我們排除專家證詞的動議,因此我們正在完成整個程序 - 讓法院確定案件是否被駁回。
Operator
Operator
Our final question for the day comes from Peter Grom of UBS.
我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得·格羅姆。
Peter K. Grom - Director of Equity Research & Analyst
Peter K. Grom - Director of Equity Research & Analyst
I guess I had a more conceptual question on the guidance. But over time, we've kind of seen some of your staples tiers that have underperformed from a top line perspective or a share perspective. We kind of rejigger investments to try and fuel growth.
我想我對指南有一個更概念性的問題。但隨著時間的推移,我們發現你們的一些主要業務從營收或股票角度來看表現不佳。我們重新調整投資,試圖推動成長。
In many cases, that coincides with rebasing earnings to set the company up for a stronger growth, not in the current year, but more in future years. Is that what's going on here? Like has your thought process on the need for investment and innovation evolved versus where we were 6 to 9 months ago? Or has this kind of earnings performance been contemplated for some time?
在許多情況下,這與調整獲利基準相一致,以使公司實現更強勁的成長,不是在今年,而是在未來幾年實現更強勁的成長。這就是這裡發生的事情嗎?您對投資和創新需求的思考過程與 6 到 9 個月前有何變化?或者這種獲利表現已經被考慮了一段時間?
And then I guess just a follow-up to Steve's question earlier on the organic growth, is the flat performance in 1Q a function of weaker category growth and the improvement just as something that the category accelerates? Or is the underlying improvement assuming that your performance relative to the category improved substantially?
然後我想這只是史蒂夫之前關於有機成長的問題的後續,第一季的表現持平是否是類別成長疲軟和類別加速改善的結果?或者,潛在的改進是否假設您相對於該類別的表現大幅提高?
Because it would just seem that if you're kind of exiting the year at more mid-single-digit growth, that would imply some pretty decent share gains. So just any color on kind of the share assumptions would be helpful.
因為看起來,如果今年以中等個位數的成長結束,這將意味著一些相當可觀的股票收益。因此,任何關於份額假設的顏色都會有所幫助。
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Yes, to answer quickly your Q1 question, Peter. And we have included in our slide deck -- a slide that I think you will helpful as you model '24 with all the puts and takes in the different quarters of 2023.
是的,快速回答你的第一個問題,彼得。我們已經在我們的幻燈片中添加了這張投影片,我認為您在對 24 年 2023 年不同季度的所有看跌期權進行建模時會有所幫助。
You will see that Q1 has a number of items that are going to make the compares very challenging for us. So it's really about a unique event that happened last year. I talked, for example, about the inventory replenishment, but also the fact that we expect the season to continue to be below last year in -- as we exit the winter, similar to what we have seen in Q4 of 2023. So it's a mix of unique items to what happened at Kenvue last year and a continued lower level of incidence in Q1, similar to what we saw in Q4.
您會看到第一季有許多項目將使我們的比較變得非常具有挑戰性。所以這實際上是關於去年發生的一件獨特的事件。例如,我談到了庫存補充,但也提到了這樣一個事實,即隨著冬季的結束,我們預計本季度的產量將繼續低於去年,這與我們在 2023 年第四季度看到的情況類似。去年Kenvue 發生的獨特事件以及第一季發病率持續較低的情況混合在一起,與我們在第四季度看到的情況類似。
To your broader question about whether or not we are changing our philosophy? I would say, commitment to our long-term algorithm is stronger than ever. Our commitment to deliver strong TSR through a 3% to 4% top line growth year-over-year, growing earnings faster than share and having a disciplined capital allocation strategy is what we started deploying in '23. You are going to see -- as we moved through '24 and '25. And also we become fully independent, and exit our transition service agreements with Johnson & Johnson, you are going to see this long-term algorithm brought to life in a meaningful way.
關於我們是否正在改變我們的理念的更廣泛的問題?我想說,對我們長期演算法的承諾比以往任何時候都更加堅定。我們承諾透過 3% 至 4% 的營收年增率、獲利成長速度快於股價成長以及嚴格的資本配置策略來實現強勁的股東總回報率,這是我們從 2023 年開始部署的承諾。當我們經歷 24 年和 25 年時,你將會看到。而且我們變得完全獨立,並退出與強生公司的過渡服務協議,您將看到這個長期演算法以有意義的方式變為現實。
That -- and that was always the plan to make sure that we exit our TSAs and reinvent our ways of working. So we make it fit for purpose for our company, with ways of working that fit what we need to be successful as Kenvue, but also do it at a low base. And the combination of this lower cost base and the continued improving improvement in gross margin that we have demonstrated our ability to do for years, again in '23, and we're having to do it again in '24, this is what brings a fuel to bring more investment to our brands.
這始終是確保我們退出 TSA 並重塑我們工作方式的計劃。因此,我們使其符合我們公司的目標,採用符合 Kenvue 成功所需的工作方式,但基礎較低。這種較低的成本基礎和毛利率的持續改善相結合,我們多年來已經證明了我們有能力做到這一點,在23 年再次做到這一點,我們必須在24 年再次做到這一點,這就是帶來為我們的品牌帶來更多投資的燃料。
There is no limit to our investment in our brands. We are very disciplined in our approach. We go for a return on investment approach. We believe that we have strong investable propositions in terms of building blocks and activities for '24, as an example. And that's why we feel confident that the higher investment that we mentioned will give us good results in '24 and beyond.
我們對品牌的投資沒有限制。我們的方法非常自律。我們追求投資報酬的方法。例如,我們相信,我們在 24 世紀的建造模組和活動方面擁有強有力的可投資主張。這就是為什麼我們有信心我們所提到的更高的投資將為我們在 24 年及以後帶來良好的結果。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Thibaut Mongon, for concluding remarks.
謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。我想請蒂博·蒙貢 (Thibaut Mongon) 作總結發言。
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
Thibaut Mongon - CEO & Director
All right. So thank you all for participating on today's call. 2023 was, as we talked about, a transformation for Kenvue. I think we have been very clear about our priorities for 2024, reaching more consumers, investing in our brands and foster a culture that rewards performance and impact.
好的。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。正如我們所說,2023 年對 Kenvue 來說是一次轉型。我認為我們對於 2024 年的優先事項非常明確,即接觸更多消費者、投資我們的品牌以及培養獎勵績效和影響力的文化。
So we look forward to updating you throughout the year as we continue to advance these efforts. And for now, have a nice day, and thank you again.
因此,隨著我們繼續推動這些努力,我們期待全年向您通報最新情況。現在,祝您有美好的一天,再次感謝您。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天。此時您可以斷開線路。