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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to Kontoor Brands Q4 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好,歡迎參加 Kontoor Brands 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Michael Karapetian, VP, Corporate Development, Enterprise Strategy, and IR. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我很高興介紹您的主持人 Michael Karapetian,企業發展、企業策略和 IR 副總裁。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Michael Karapetian - Vice President of Corporate Development, Strategy, and Investor Relations
Michael Karapetian - Vice President of Corporate Development, Strategy, and Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and welcome to Kontoor Brands Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call.
謝謝接線員,歡迎參加 Kontoor Brands 2024 財年第四季和收益電話會議。
Participants on today's call will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ. These uncertainties are detailed in documents filed with the SEC. We urge you to read our risk factors, cautionary language, and other disclosures contained in those reports. Amounts referred to on today's call will often be on an adjusted dollar basis, which we clearly defined in the news release that was issued earlier this morning and is available on our website at kontoorbrands.com.
參加今天電話會議的人員將做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於當前預期,並受可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的不確定因素的影響。這些不確定性在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細說明。我們敦促您閱讀這些報告中包含的風險因素、警告語言和其他揭露。今天電話會議上提到的金額通常是按調整後的美元計算的,我們在今天早上發布的新聞稿中對此進行了明確定義,您可以在我們的網站 kontoorbrands.com 上查閱。
Additionally, participants should note that comparability with prior periods is impacted by the previously disclosed out-of-period duty charge recorded in 2023. Accordingly, in our following comments, comparisons to 2023 gross margin, operating income, and EPS do not include the impact of the 2023 duty charge.
此外,參與者應注意,與前期的可比性受到 2023 年記錄的先前揭露的非期間關稅費用的影響。因此,在我們以下的評論中,與 2023 年毛利率、營業收入和每股盈餘的比較不包括 2023 年關稅的影響。
Reconciliations of GAAP measures to adjusted amounts can be found in the supplemental financial tables included in today's news release.
在今天的新聞稿中包含的補充財務表可以找到 GAAP 指標與調整金額的對帳表。
These tables identify and quantify excluded items and provide management's view of why this information is useful to investors. Unless otherwise noted, amounts referred to on this call will be in constant currency, which excludes the translation impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates.
這些表格識別並量化了排除的項目,並提供了管理層對這些資訊對投資者有用的看法。除非另有說明,本次電話會議中提及的金額將以固定貨幣表示,不包括外幣匯率變動的折算影響。
Joining me on today's call are Kontoor Brands' President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Scott Baxter; and Chief Financial Officer, Joe Alkire. In addition, we will be joined by Tom Waldron, Chief Operating Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Scott?
參加今天電話會議的還有 Kontoor Brands 總裁、執行長兼董事長 Scott Baxter;以及財務長喬·阿爾基爾 (Joe Alkire)。此外,營運長湯姆·沃德倫 (Tom Waldron) 也將加入我們。在我們準備好發言之後,我們將開始提問。史考特?
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Michael, and thank you to everybody for joining us on today's call. 2024 was a banner year for Kontoor. We connected with more consumers in more categories, accelerated brand investments to drive market share gains, and initiated our Project Jeanius transformation. As a result, we delivered on our pivot to growth, expanded margins, and improved our capital allocation optionality while returning significant cash to shareholders. In what remains an uncertain environment, we are operating from a position of strength and executing at a high level.
謝謝,邁克爾,也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。 2024 年對 Kontoor 來說是輝煌的一年。我們在更多類別中與更多消費者建立聯繫,加快品牌投資以推動市場份額成長,並啟動了我們的 Project Jeanius 轉型。結果,我們實現了成長目標,擴大了利潤率,提高了資本配置選擇性,同時向股東返還了大量現金。在仍不確定的環境中,我們憑藉實力開展業務,並且高水準執行。
Let's discuss highlights from the year. As we reported last week, fourth-quarter revenue and profitability were better than expected.
讓我們討論一下今年的亮點。正如我們上週報導的那樣,第四季度的收入和盈利能力好於預期。
The investments we are making continue to drive competitive separation in the marketplace. While the environment has been uneven, consumers are choosing our brands. We see this in the strength of our own digital business, which grew 11% for the year, including 16% growth in the fourth quarter. And this is leading to stronger partnerships in the wholesale channel.
我們正在進行的投資將繼續推動市場競爭的分離。儘管環境並不平衡,消費者還是選擇了我們的品牌。我們從自己的數位業務的強勁表現中看到了這一點,該業務全年增長了 11%,其中第四季度增長了 16%。這將導致批發管道的合作關係更加牢固。
In 2025, we are actively exploring shop-in-shops in key retailers that will elevate our presence and provide a greater experience for our consumers. We also made progress in diversifying our business into new categories. Non-denim bottoms, tops, and T-shirts grew mid-single digits in 2024 to approximately 1/3 of global revenue. Within that, our outdoor business grew at a mid-teens rate, reflecting the investments we are making in product development and design.
2025年,我們將積極探索在主要零售商中開設店中店,以提升我們的影響力並為消費者提供更優質的體驗。我們在業務多元化發展至新類別方面也取得了進展。2024 年,非牛仔下裝、上衣和 T 恤的銷售額將成長中等個位數,約佔全球收入的 1/3。其中,我們的戶外業務以十五六成的速度成長,反映了我們在產品開發和設計方面的投資。
We expect to build on this momentum in '25 with another year of growth.
我們期望在 2025 年繼續保持這一勢頭,實現另一年的成長。
Moving down the P&L, one of the hallmarks of our organization is a strong focus on operational discipline to drive shareholder returns and 2024 was no exception. We significantly expanded margins and drove strong operating income growth. As a result, we generated approximately $370 million in cash from operations, allowing us to return almost $200 million to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchase program and further strengthen our balance sheet through voluntary debt repayments.
從損益表中可以看出,我們組織的標誌之一是高度重視營運紀律以推動股東回報,2024 年也不例外。我們大幅提高了利潤率並推動了強勁的營業收入成長。結果,我們從營運中產生了約 3.7 億美元的現金,使我們能夠透過股利和股票回購計畫向股東返還近 2 億美元,並透過自願償還債務進一步加強我們的資產負債表。
Moving to Project Jeanius. A year ago, we outlined how Project Jeanius would enhance our organization, create considerable capacity for investment, and establish a world-class multi-brand platform. With our ERP implementation complete, team structure in place, and disruption from the pandemic fading, the timing is right to pull together the strategic initiatives from around the organization into one comprehensive project, and we progressed through the year. We raised our expected savings target to $100 million with benefits starting to flow through our P&L in 2025. Today, I am pleased to share we have moved firmly into the execution phase and now see an upside to our $100 million of combined gross margin and SG&A savings.
轉向 Jeanius 計畫。一年前,我們概述了 Jeanius 計畫將如何增強我們的組織、創造可觀的投資能力並建立世界一流的多品牌平台。隨著我們的 ERP 實施完成、團隊結構到位以及疫情造成的干擾逐漸消退,現在是將整個組織的戰略舉措整合到一個綜合項目中的最佳時機,我們在這一年中取得了進展。我們將預期節省目標提高至 1 億美元,收益將於 2025 年開始流入我們的損益表。今天,我很高興地告訴大家,我們已經穩定地進入執行階段,現在我們可以看到合併後的毛利率和銷售、一般及行政費用節省達到了 1 億美元。
Joe will unpack the specifics, but there are 3 areas of improvement we have a clear line of sight to achieving.
喬將會詳細說明,但有三個改進領域是我們明確要實現的。
First, our global sourcing transformation will optimize our business for expanded category growth, drive greater efficiency in our sourced vendor network, and enhance our planning organization. Second, back-end efficiencies will result in an improved shared platform that can scale with the addition of Helly Hansen while standing up enhanced data capabilities. And third, commercial optimization will drive improved product development capabilities, increased speed to market, and greater responsiveness to meet evolving customer demands. 2025 will be an important year for Project Jeanius, and we have the team in place to drive significant value for our organization. The work we are doing will transform Kontoor into a best-in-class global multi-brand platform while improving our overall financial profile.
首先,我們的全球採購轉型將優化我們的業務,擴大品類成長,提高我們採購供應商網路的效率,並增強我們的規劃組織。其次,後端效率將帶來更好的共享平台,該平台可以隨著 Helly Hansen 的加入而擴展,同時增強資料功能。第三,商業優化將推動產品開發能力的提高、產品上市速度的加快以及更快的反應速度,以滿足不斷變化的客戶需求。 2025 年對 Jeanius 專案來說將是重要的一年,我們擁有一支能夠為組織創造重大價值的團隊。我們正在進行的工作將把 Kontoor 轉變為一流的全球多品牌平台,同時改善我們的整體財務狀況。
Before I turn it over to Tom, a few closing remarks. After successfully completing our first 2 horizons as a public company, we are entering a new phase of growth for Kontoor.
在將發言權交給湯姆之前,我想說幾句結束語。在成功完成作為上市公司的前兩個階段後,Kontoor 正在進入一個新的成長階段。
While the environment remains dynamic, we have proven the resiliency to navigate the current environment. We have been through multiple cycles and have navigated disruption throughout our careers, including the particularly challenging period of the past 5 years.
儘管環境仍然動態,但我們已經證明了適應當前環境的彈性。在我們的職業生涯中,我們經歷了多個週期並克服了各種困難,包括過去五年特別具有挑戰性的時期。
Supported by our exceptional leadership team, the benefits of Project Jeanius, and now the upcoming addition of the iconic Helly Hansen brand, I am highly confident we are on the right path to drive strong value creation for all shareholders. Tom?
在我們傑出的領導團隊、Jeanius 計畫的優勢以及即將加入的標誌性 Helly Hansen 品牌的支持下,我非常有信心我們正走在為所有股東創造強大價值的正確道路上。湯姆?
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Scott, and thanks to everyone joining us today. 2024 marked one of Wrangler's most successful years in decades. We expanded market share, made lasting connections with our consumers and invested in the brand to further diversify our product assortment to drive greater category and channel diversification. Wrangler is on an incredible trajectory, and we continue to take the brand to new heights.
謝謝,斯科特,也謝謝今天加入我們的每個人。 2024 年是牧馬人數十年來最成功的一年。我們擴大了市場份額,與消費者建立了持久的聯繫,並投資品牌以進一步豐富我們的產品組合,從而推動更大的類別和管道多樣化。Wrangler 正處於令人難以置信的發展軌跡中,我們將繼續推動品牌邁向新的高度。
One of the most successful initiatives in 2024 was our return to national broadcast. Bringing the Cowboy Spirit to life, we introduced the brand's first global equity campaign in years, Good Mornings Make for Better Days.
2024 年最成功的舉措之一是我們重返全國廣播。為了將牛仔精神帶入生活,我們推出了品牌多年來的首個全球資產管理活動「早晨好,日子更美好」。
The Wrangler campaign showcased the power of music, community, and classic Wrangler style. This is our highest-tested campaign ever and is a testament to the incredible talent at Wrangler and our ability to fuel the brand's continued momentum. So how does this translate?
Wrangler 活動展示了音樂、社區和經典 Wrangler 風格的力量。這是我們迄今為止測試最嚴格的活動,證明了 Wrangler 的非凡才華以及我們推動品牌持續發展的能力。那麼這該如何翻譯呢?
According to Circana, in our core U.S. men's bottoms business, Wrangler gained 130 basis points of market share in 2024. In the fourth quarter, this accelerated to 220 basis points, making the 11th consecutive quarter of market share growth.
根據 Circana 的數據,在我們核心的美國男士下裝業務中,Wrangler 的市佔率在 2024 年獲得了 130 個基點。第四季度,這一數字加速至 220 個基點,這是市佔率連續第 11 個季度成長。
It is clear the Wrangler brand is resonating with our consumers and reaching them in many areas they engage, particularly focused on sports, culture, and music.
很明顯,Wrangler 品牌引起了我們消費者的共鳴,並在他們參與的許多領域影響他們,尤其是在運動、文化和音樂方面。
Leaning into the intersection of country music and Western culture, we continue to build momentum through our successful collaborations with Cody Johnson, one of the biggest country stars of his generation, and the highly anticipated collection of Grammy award-winning superstar, Lainey Wilson, launched as our single largest collaboration to date.
我們傾向於鄉村音樂和西方文化的交匯,透過與同代最偉大的鄉村音樂明星之一科迪·約翰遜 (Cody Johnson) 的成功合作,以及備受期待的格萊美獎獲獎巨星萊尼·威爾遜 (Lainey Wilson) 的合作,我們繼續保持強勁勢頭,這是我們迄今為止最大的合作。
I am excited to announce that we are following up with a second collection in the spring, including a broader expansion in EMEA which coincides with Lane's European tour kickoff. Further fueling momentum with Wrangler Female, our newest female fit innovation, Bespoke, launched across DTC and specialty retail, exceeding our high expectations with many styles quickly selling out.
我很高興地宣布,我們將在春季推出第二個系列,其中包括在歐洲、中東和非洲地區進行更廣泛的擴張,這與 Lane 的歐洲巡迴啟動同時發生。我們最新的女性合身創新產品 Wrangler Female 的推出進一步推動了這一發展勢頭,Bespoke 已在 DTC 和專業零售店推出,超出了我們的高預期,許多款式很快就銷售一空。
Bespoke will continue to be growing product story in '25 as we look to scale this platform. Wrangler female grew 8% for the year and 19% in the fourth quarter. And finally, outdoor continues to be a major category for Wrangler. Outdoor has grown to more than $200 million, up 15% last year and doubling from approximately $100 million five years ago.
隨著我們尋求擴大這個平台的規模,Bespoke 將在 25 年繼續發展產品故事。Wrangler 女性全年成長 8%,第四季成長 19%。最後,戶外仍然是 Wrangler 的主要產品類別。戶外廣告收入已成長至 2 億多美元,去年成長了 15%,比五年前的約 1 億美元增加了一倍。
We expect Outdoor to post another year of growth in '25 and see room for the business to double again over time, fueled by our investments in talent, product development, and design.
我們預計,由於我們在人才、產品開發和設計方面的投資,戶外用品在 25 年將再次實現成長,隨著時間的推移,業務還有再次翻番的空間。
Putting it together, Wrangler Global's revenue grew 9% in the fourth quarter, including 9% in the U.S., 9% growth in direct-to-consumer. We see tremendous opportunity on the horizon, and I am confident that our strategy has set Wrangler on a path for continued success.
綜合來看,Wrangler Global 第四季的營收成長了 9%,其中美國市場成長了 9%,直接面向消費者的業務成長了 9%。我們看到了巨大的機遇,我相信我們的策略將使 Wrangler 走上持續成功的道路。
Turning to Lee. 2024 marked a year of strategic planning and focus for Lee.
轉向李。 2024 年是李小加進行策略規劃與重點關注的一年。
We have strengthened the identity of the brand, launching a new creative vision. Let me remind you, this is work we did with the Wrangler brand five years ago, and we believe it was a catalyst to unlocking Wrangler's growth. We have now just completed this work for Lee.
我們強化了品牌的形象,推出了新的創意願景。讓我提醒你,這是我們五年前為牧馬人品牌所做的工作,我們相信它是釋放牧馬人成長的催化劑。我們現在剛剛為李完成了這項工作。
With clarity on Lee's brand identity, refined consumer targets, and new brand leaders with a proven track record of success, we have built the foundation needed to improve the performance of the Lee brand, and we are committed to doing just that. In 2024, leaning into its legacy of innovation, Lee launched Lee X and MVP Heritage denim in the fourth quarter.
透過明確李氏的品牌形象、完善的消費者目標以及擁有成功業績記錄的新品牌領導者,我們為提高李氏品牌的業績奠定了必要的基礎,並且我們致力於做到這一點。2024年,Lee秉承其創新傳統,在第四季推出了Lee X和MVP Heritage牛仔布。
These new platforms combine the look and feel of authentic world-class denim with the comfort of performance pants. Both Lee X and MVP Heritage are off to an encouraging start and are poised to build momentum in 2025. They are also paving a path for new channels and distribution and new consumers.
這些新平台將正宗世界級牛仔布的外觀和感覺與高性能褲子的舒適性結合在一起。Lee X 和 MVP Heritage 都取得了令人鼓舞的開局,並準備在 2025 年積聚動力。他們也為新通路、新分銷和新消費者鋪平了道路。
For Lee female, the brand gained market share for the 12th consecutive month in December across denim, non-denim, and seasonal products according to Circana. Our new lifestyle product categories, including sets, dresses, skirts, and tops have been well received and provide a great opportunity to expand our wear occasions while creating brand loyalty with our younger consumers.
根據 Circana 的數據,對於 Lee 女裝而言,該品牌 12 月在牛仔、非牛仔和季節性產品領域的市場份額連續 12 個月增長。我們的新生活風格產品類別,包括套裝、連身裙、裙子和上衣,都廣受好評,為擴大我們的穿著場合提供了絕佳機會,同時在年輕消費者中建立了品牌忠誠度。
Global revenue declined 5% in the fourth quarter. 2025 will continue to be a transitional year for Lee as we harmonize the brand's improved positioning, address challenges with mid-tier distribution, and scale new innovation platforms. We are confident we have the right team in place and a new strategic playbook to build our way back to growth over time.
第四季全球營收下降5%。 2025 年將繼續成為 Lee 的過渡之年,因為我們將協調品牌的改進定位、應對中階分銷的挑戰並擴展新的創新平台。我們相信,我們擁有合適的團隊和新的策略方針,可以幫助我們逐步恢復成長。
Our path forward is built on three pillars: product, distribution, and brand, all of which are rooted in meeting the needs of our refreshed consumer targets. We are building to growth using a central creative vision that stays true to the heritage and rich history that has cemented Lee's legacy as a global denim icon.
我們的前進之路建立在三大支柱之上:產品、分銷和品牌,所有這些都是為了滿足我們更新的消費者目標的需求。我們正利用核心創意願景來實現成長,這個願景忠於鞏固李氏作為全球牛仔偶像的傳統和豐富歷史。
Through data-driven insights, we are introducing brand storytelling that creates a deeper connection with consumers, both long-time brand fans and new younger generation. We are launching a demand creation platform that will allow Lee to regain its place in the center of culture. We see early signs of success with Lee's brand health metrics that have meaningfully improved over the last six months. That said, this will not be linear. We must continue to create trend-right product, diversify distribution, and elevate marketing to fuel our go-forward strategy.
透過數據驅動的洞察,我們引入了品牌故事,與消費者(包括長期品牌粉絲和新一代年輕消費者)建立了更深層的聯繫。我們正在推出一個需求創造平台,讓李氏重新成為文化的中心。我們看到了李的品牌健康指標成功的早期跡象,這些指標在過去六個月中已經有了顯著改善。也就是說,這並不是線性的。我們必須持續創造符合潮流的產品、實現分銷多樣化、提升行銷水平,以推動我們的前進策略。
In early 2025, brand collaborations with Buck Mason and Paul Smith will paint a clear picture of how Lee is bringing iconic American Cool to life for consumers across the globe, and we will build momentum in the back half of the year with the launch of a brand equity campaign. I am excited about the important work we have done to recalibrate our path forward. The refined consumer segmentation choices, a sharpened focus on product innovation, and a stronger brand positioning will put the brand on its best footing in decades. We are on the right path to return the brand to growth, and I'm confident Lee's best days are ahead. Joe?
2025 年初,與 Buck Mason 和 Paul Smith 的品牌合作將清楚展現 Lee 如何為全球消費者帶來標誌性的 American Cool 風格,我們將在下半年透過推出品牌資產活動來累積勢頭。我對我們為重新調整前進道路所做的重要工作感到非常興奮。精細的消費者細分選擇、對產品創新的更加關注以及更強大的品牌定位將使該品牌處於數十年來的最佳地位。我們正走在讓品牌恢復成長的正確道路上,我相信李最好的日子就在前方。喬?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Tom, and thank you all for joining us today. We are pleased with our strong finish to the year, which came in above our outlook, driven by better-than-expected revenue growth, earnings, and cash flow. In what remains an uneven environment, we are operating from a position of strength and executing well. Our fourth quarter results put a capstone on what was a strong year for Kontoor Brands.
謝謝,湯姆,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們對今年的強勁表現感到滿意,這超出了我們的預期,這得益於好於預期的收入成長、獲利和現金流。在依然不平衡的環境中,我們憑藉優勢地位開展營運並表現良好。我們的第四季業績為 Kontoor Brands 強勁的一年打下了堅實的基礎。
Global revenue increased 5%. Relative to our prior outlook, we saw stronger results in the U.S. and Asia with Europe performing as anticipated. By brand, Wrangler Global's revenue increased 9%. Strength was broad-based with growth in every channel and geography, including 9% growth in both the U.S. and international, 9% growth in wholesale and DTC, 19% growth in female, and 29% growth in outdoor. We were encouraged by the strength we saw in POS during the holiday season.
全球營收成長5%。相對於我們先前的展望,我們看到美國和亞洲的業績表現更為強勁,歐洲的表現也符合預期。按品牌劃分,Wrangler Global 的收入成長了 9%。成長勢頭強勁,各個通路和地區均實現成長,其中美國和國際市場均成長 9%,批發和 DTC 市場成長 9%,女性市場成長 19%,戶外市場成長 29%。節慶期間 POS 業務的強勁表現令我們感到鼓舞。
Despite uneven performance month-to-month, as has been the case over the past year, we saw continued strength in overall sell-through performance at retail. October increased at a low single-digit rate with November and December accelerating meaningfully to 8% growth on a combined basis. This was the strongest POS performance in over a year, reflecting the brand momentum discussed earlier.
儘管與過去一年一樣,月度表現並不均衡,但我們看到零售整體銷售表現持續強勁。10 月成長率為低個位數,而 11 月和 12 月合計成長率則顯著加快至 8%。這是一年多來最強勁的 POS 表現,反映了先前討論過的品牌動能。
Now turning to Lee. Global revenue decreased 5%. U.S. revenue decreased 6%, driven by a decline in wholesale, partially offset by double-digit growth in DTC. Lee's performance was below our expectations as challenges in the mid-tier channel pressured wholesale revenue more than anticipated. Additionally, during the fourth quarter, Lee's revenue was negatively impacted by approximately 3 percentage points from the exit from the club channel. We are evolving Lee's go-to-market strategy in areas that are misaligned with the brand strategy and consumer insights work.
現在談談李。全球收入下降5%。美國收入下降 6%,原因是批發業務下滑,但直銷業務的兩位數成長部分抵消了下降。由於中階通路的挑戰對批發收入造成的壓力超出預期,Lee 的表現低於我們的預期。此外,第四季度,由於退出俱樂部管道,Lee 的收入受到約 3 個百分點的負面影響。我們正在改進李的市場進入策略,以應對與品牌策略和消費者洞察工作不一致的領域。
While these decisions may have a near-term impact on revenue, they will result in greater consistency and performance for both our wholesale partners and our owned DTC channels long-term. Partially offsetting the decline in wholesale was an improvement in DTC, including strong double-digit growth in the fourth quarter, which we expect to continue in 2025. In the first quarter, Lee's digital business is up 7% quarter-to-date.
雖然這些決定可能會在短期內對收入產生影響,但從長遠來看,它們將為我們的批發合作夥伴和我們自己的 DTC 管道帶來更高的一致性和績效。DTC 業務的改善部分抵消了批發業務的下滑,包括第四季度強勁的兩位數成長,我們預計這種成長將在 2025 年繼續保持。第一季度,李的數位業務迄今已成長 7%。
Lee International's revenue decreased 4% with declines in wholesale offsetting growth in DTC. In Europe, revenue declined 1%.
由於批發業務的下滑抵消了直銷業務的成長,Lee International 的收入下降了 4%。在歐洲,收入下降了1%。
Growth in DTC, including 17% growth in digital, was offset by declines in wholesale. Performance was generally consistent with expectations as the uneven macro environment continues to weigh on retailer behavior.
DTC 的成長(包括數位業務 17% 的成長)被批發業務的下滑所抵消。由於不平衡的宏觀環境持續影響零售商的行為,業績整體上與預期一致。
In APAC, revenue decreased 4%. Performance was modestly better than we expected. Recall last quarter, we tempered our outlook for the region as a result of more challenging operating conditions.
亞太地區收入下降了 4%。業績略好於我們的預期。回想上個季度,由於經營條件更加嚴峻,我們調整了對該地區的展望。
We will continue to manage the business prudently in light of the environment. However, we are encouraged by the modest improvement in the performance of the region over the past few months.
我們將繼續根據環境審慎管理業務。然而,我們對過去幾個月該地區表現的略有改善感到鼓舞。
2025 will be a transition year for Lee as we work to set a stronger foundation for the brand and reposition it for growth and improved fundamentals. We are confident our consumer-driven strategy will strengthen the brand and expect the performance of the business to improve as we move through 2025.
2025 年將是 Lee 的轉型之年,我們將致力於為品牌奠定更堅實的基礎,並重新定位以實現成長和改善基本面。我們相信,以消費者為導向的策略將增強品牌影響力,並預計到 2025 年,業務表現將會有所改善。
Moving to the remainder of the P&L.
轉到損益表的剩餘部分。
Adjusted gross margin expanded 160 basis points to 44.7%, driven by the benefits of lower input costs and mix. This was partially offset by the targeted pricing actions included in our plan. Adjusted SG&A expense was $211 million, up 5% compared to the prior year, driven by investments in demand creation and volume-related variable expenses. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.38, representing an increase of 2% compared to the prior year. Excluding the discrete tax benefit in the prior year, adjusted EPS increased 23%.
調整後的毛利率擴大 160 個基點至 44.7%,這得益於投入成本降低和產品組合改善。這被我們計劃中的有針對性的定價行動部分抵消了。調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.11 億美元,較上年增長 5%,主要得益於對需求創造和與數量相關的變動費用的投資。調整後每股收益為 1.38 美元,較上年增長 2%。不計入上一年的單獨稅收收益,調整後的每股收益成長了 23%。
Now turning to the balance sheet. Inventory decreased 22% to $390 million. We achieved our annual turnover target of approximately 3.5x and our days-on-hand goal of approximately 100 days. While we anticipate inventory to grow in line with sales going forward, net working capital management, cash generation, and return on invested capital will remain a top priority. We finished the year with net debt or long-term debt less cash of $406 million and $334 million of cash on hand.
現在轉向資產負債表。庫存減少22%至3.9億美元。我們實現了約 3.5 倍的年度營業額目標和約 100 天的庫存天數目標。雖然我們預期庫存將隨著未來銷售額的成長而成長,但淨營運資本管理、現金產生和投資資本回報仍將是重中之重。我們今年的淨債務或長期債務減去現金為 4.06 億美元,手頭現金為 3.34 億美元。
Our net leverage ratio or net debt divided by trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was 1.0x at the low end of our targeted range.
我們的淨槓桿率或淨債務除以過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.0 倍,處於目標範圍的低端。
During the fourth quarter, we paused share repurchase activity in anticipation of our acquisition of Helly Hansen. We have $215 million remaining under our current authorization. Our Board approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.52 per share. And during 2024, we returned $198 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
在第四季度,我們暫停了股票回購活動,以準備收購 Helly Hansen。我們目前的授權金額還剩餘 2.15 億美元。我們的董事會批准了每股 0.52 美元的定期季度現金股利。2024 年,我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了 1.98 億美元。
Finally, on a trailing 12-month basis, our adjusted return on invested capital was 32%, representing an increase of 550 basis points compared to the prior year. Before moving to our outlook, let me discuss 2 topics I know are top of mind, Project Jeanius and tariffs.
最後,在過去 12 個月中,我們的調整後投資資本回報率為 32%,比前一年增加了 550 個基點。在談到我們的展望之前,讓我先討論一下我所知道的兩個最受關注的話題,即 Jeanius 項目和關稅。
Starting with Project Jeanius.
從 Jeanius 計畫開始。
When we launched our transformation program, the goal was to create investment capacity to drive accelerated growth, improved profitability, and returns on capital. As we've discussed, Project Jeanius will result in significant gross and operating margin expansion and allow for a step change in investment to fuel the next leg of our value-creation journey.
當我們啟動轉型計劃時,目標是創造投資能力以推動加速成長、提高獲利能力和資本回報。正如我們所討論的,Jeanius 專案將帶來毛利率和營業利潤的大幅提升,並允許投資發生重大變化,為我們價值創造之旅的下一階段提供動力。
As Scott highlighted, we now see total run-rate savings in excess of $100 million for the Genius program. In 2025, we anticipate a benefit of approximately $30 million before reinvestment. The first half of 2025 will primarily benefit from SG&A savings related to operational efficiencies and improvements within indirect procurement. The second half of the year will include the added savings from supply chain initiatives that will contribute to our gross margin expansion.
正如斯科特所強調的,我們現在看到 Genius 計劃的總運行成本節省超過 1 億美元。2025 年,我們預計再投資前的收益約為 3,000 萬美元。2025 年上半年將主要受益於與營運效率和間接採購改善相關的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 節省。下半年我們將透過供應鏈措施增加節省,這將有助於我們的毛利率擴大。
Unpacking this in more detail, we expect Project Jeanius to benefit full-year gross margin by approximately 10 to 20 basis points.
更詳細地講,我們預計 Jeanius 項目將使全年毛利率提高約 10 至 20 個基點。
Savings will be primarily driven by optimizing our sourced versus internally manufactured products. We have performed a deep SKU level analysis and expect these savings to ramp meaningfully starting in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
節約主要透過優化我們的採購產品與內部製造產品來實現。我們進行了深入的 SKU 層級分析,預計這些節省將從 2025 年下半年到 2026 年開始大幅增加。
As a result, the majority of the supply chain-related savings will occur in the second half of the year, most heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter. SG&A will benefit by approximately $20 million in 2025. Savings will be generated primarily from indirect procurement and improved organizational design and other operational and go-to-market efficiencies. We plan to reinvest over half of these savings to support our 2025 growth initiatives, including incremental demand creation and brand equity campaigns, channel and geographic expansion and product development, and consumer insight capabilities.
因此,與供應鏈相關的大部分節省將發生在下半年,其中大部分將集中在第四季度。2025 年,銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 將受益約 2,000 萬美元。節省主要來自間接採購、改進的組織設計以及其他營運和上市效率。我們計劃將一半以上的儲蓄重新投資,以支持我們的 2025 年成長計劃,包括增量需求創造和品牌資產活動、通路和地理擴展和產品開發以及消費者洞察能力。
Net of reinvestment, we expect Project Jeanius to benefit 2025 operating income by $10 million to $15 million.
扣除再投資後,我們預計 Jeanius 專案將為 2025 年的營運收入帶來 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的收益。
As we move into 2026, we expect Project Jeanius savings to mature to a full run rate in excess of $100 million, providing us with a higher level of investment capacity to further support accelerated growth, expand profitability and returns on capital.
隨著我們進入 2026 年,我們預計 Jeanius 專案的儲蓄將達到超過 1 億美元的全部運行率,為我們提供更高水準的投資能力,以進一步支持加速成長、擴大獲利能力和資本回報率。
Moving to tariffs. Approximately 25% of our expected 2025 U.S. production volume originates from Mexico. Our China exposure is immaterial as the sourcing we do from China is directly for China. While the situation remains fluid, we have evaluated a range of potential outcomes and have developed a robust set of scenarios and mitigating actions should tariffs prove to be more permanent.
轉向關稅。我們預計 2025 年美國產量的約 25% 來自墨西哥。我們對中國的依賴並不大,因為我們從中國採購的產品直接供應給中國。儘管情況仍不確定,但我們已經評估了一系列可能的結果,並製定了一套強有力的方案和緩解措施,以防關稅被證明是更持久的。
Should tariffs be implemented in March at the proposed 25% level on all imports from Mexico, the unmitigated impact to operating profit in 2025 is approximately $50 million. This assumes no mitigating actions, including transferring production within our global supply chain, pricing increases, changes to foreign currency, or other proactive mitigating cost actions.
如果 3 月對所有從墨西哥進口的商品實施擬議的 25% 關稅,則對 2025 年營業利潤的直接影響約為 5,000 萬美元。這不假設任何緩解措施,包括在我們的全球供應鏈內轉移生產、提高價格、改變外幣或其他主動緩解成本的措施。
We would expect the mitigated impact in 2025 to be below $50 million and would work to largely offset any potential impact of tariffs more fully in 2026. We have experienced supply chain shocks in the past, including cotton spikes, supply chain and ocean freight disruption, and inflation. While we are not immune to these events over a near-term window, we are confident we can largely offset the impact of tariffs within a 12- to 18-month period.
我們預計 2025 年減輕的影響將低於 5000 萬美元,並將努力在 2026 年更充分地抵消關稅的任何潛在影響。我們過去曾經歷過供應鏈衝擊,包括棉花價格暴漲、供應鏈和海運中斷以及通貨膨脹。雖然我們在短期內無法免受這些事件的影響,但我們相信我們可以在 12 至 18 個月內在很大程度上抵消關稅的影響。
Now turning to our outlook. Our outlook excludes the expected revenue, earnings, and cash flow contribution from Helly Hansen and any potential impact from tariffs as just discussed. Full-year revenue is expected to increase 1% to 3% and includes an approximate 1% headwind from the stronger U.S.
現在轉向我們的展望。我們的展望不包括 Helly Hansen 的預期收入、收益和現金流貢獻以及剛才討論的關稅的任何潛在影響。預計全年收入將成長 1% 至 3%,其中包括來自美國經濟走強約 1% 的阻力。
dollar. Our outlook for 2025 also includes the impact of a 53rd week, which is not expected to meaningfully impact revenue on a full-year basis.
美元。我們對 2025 年的展望還包括第 53 週的影響,預計這不會對全年收入產生重大影響。
Our revenue outlook includes the following assumptions: First, we continue to plan the business conservatively and assume no meaningful improvement in retail inventory positions for the year. While inventory levels at retail remain optimal, the environment is uncertain, and our retail partners remain in a conservative posture with regard to inventory management. This is consistent with our assumption in 2024. Second, relative to our expectations 120 days ago, our outlook embeds an approximate 100 basis point incremental headwind from foreign currency.
我們的收入前景包括以下假設:首先,我們繼續保守地規劃業務,並假設今年零售庫存狀況不會顯著改善。雖然零售庫存水準仍處於最佳狀態,但環境不確定,我們的零售合作夥伴在庫存管理方面仍然持保守態度。這與我們對2024年的假設一致。其次,相對於我們 120 天前的預期,我們的展望包含了來自外幣的約 100 個基點的增量阻力。
This will have an equal impact on first and second-half revenue growth.
這將對上半年和下半年的收入成長產生同等影響。
Third, the impact of Lee's evolving strategy and distribution footprint in the amount and timing of category expansion, distribution gains and new programs for both brands has rebalanced revenue growth to be more equally weighted between the first and second halves. And finally, after an encouraging start to the year, POS trends have softened over the last 4 to 6 weeks. January POS increased 4%, and we gained approximately 100 basis points of market share. February POS has declined at a low single-digit rate as a result of weather disruption and more subdued consumer spending as a result of macro uncertainty.
第三,李氏不斷發展的策略和分銷足跡對兩個品牌的品類擴張、分銷收益和新項目的數量和時機的影響,已經重新平衡了上半年和下半年的收入增長,使其權重更加均衡。最後,在經歷了令人鼓舞的開年之後,POS 趨勢在過去 4 到 6 週內有所減弱。一月份 POS 成長了 4%,我們的市佔率增加了約 100 個基點。由於天氣因素以及宏觀不確定性導致的消費支出放緩,2 月 POS 銷量出現低個位數下滑。
Based on the visibility we have, we believe the recent slowdown in February POS is across brands and categories in our largest points of distribution and not specific to Wrangler and Lee. As I mentioned earlier, we have seen month-to-month variability over the last year and are planning the business prudently in light of recent trends.
根據我們掌握的信息,我們認為 POS 在 2 月份的放緩是在我們最大的分銷點的各個品牌和類別中出現的,並不局限於 Wrangler 和 Lee。正如我之前提到的,我們看到去年每個月都有變化,因此我們正在根據最近的趨勢謹慎地規劃業務。
For the first half of 2025, we expect low single-digit revenue growth, including the approximate 100 basis point incremental impact from foreign currency and the factors I just discussed. For the first quarter, we expect revenue of approximately $625 million. Our first quarter outlook reflects quarter-to-date trends as well as the impact of seasonal programs and distribution expansion that are more heavily weighted to the second quarter.
對於 2025 年上半年,我們預計收入將實現低個位數成長,其中包括外匯和我剛才討論的因素帶來的約 100 個基點的增量影響。我們預計第一季的營收約為 6.25 億美元。我們對第一季的展望反映了本季迄今的趨勢以及季節性計劃和分銷擴張對第二季的影響。
For the full year, the low end of our revenue outlook assumes a low single-digit decline in POS for the balance of the year based on the softness we have experienced in February. The high end of our revenue outlook assumes POS trends that are more consistent with the performance we have experienced over the last 6 to 12 months. While the composition and phasing of our revenue plan for 2025 has evolved differently, there is no change to our growth outlook for 2025 on a constant currency basis relative to 120 days ago.
對於全年而言,基於 2 月經歷的疲軟表現,我們的營收預期下限是假設全年 POS 銷售額將出現個位數的低點下降。我們收入預期的高端假設 POS 趨勢與我們過去 6 到 12 個月所經歷的表現更加一致。雖然我們 2025 年收入計畫的組成和階段有所變化,但與 120 天前相比,以固定匯率計算,我們對 2025 年的成長前景沒有變化。
More specifically, stronger FX headwinds and softer POS trends to start the year have been offset by greater-than-expected new distribution and category expansion, primarily in the Wrangler brand.
更具體地說,年初強勁的外匯逆風和較弱的 POS 趨勢已被超出預期的新分銷和類別擴張(主要是牧馬人品牌)所抵消。
Moving to gross margin. We expect an adjusted gross margin of 45.3% to 45.5%.
轉向毛利率。我們預期調整後的毛利率為45.3%至45.5%。
Our outlook represents an increase of approximately 20 to 40 basis points compared to an adjusted gross margin of 45.1% in 2024. We have a high degree of confidence in our ability to continue to expand gross margin, supported by Project Jeanius and the benefits of structural mix, partially offset by product cost inflation.
我們的預期是,與 2024 年調整後的毛利率 45.1% 相比,毛利率將增加約 20 至 40 個基點。我們對持續擴大毛利率的能力充滿信心,這得益於 Jeanius 專案和結構組合帶來的優勢,但部分被產品成本通膨所抵銷。
Gross margin is expected to be weighted to the second half of the year, driven by the scaling benefits of Project Jeanius. We expect the first-half gross margin to expand approximately 10 to 20 basis points compared to prior year. For the first quarter, we expect a gross margin of 46% or an increase of approximately 30 basis points compared to the prior year.
預計毛利率將集中在下半年,受 Jeanius 計畫規模效益的推動。我們預計上半年毛利率將比去年同期擴大約 10 至 20 個基點。對於第一季度,我們預計毛利率為 46%,比上年增加約 30 個基點。
SG&A is expected to increase at a low single-digit rate on an adjusted basis. We expect to make investments in areas such as demand creation, product development and DTC, and international expansion.
預計銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 經調整後將以低個位數成長率成長。我們希望在需求創造、產品開發和 DTC 以及國際擴張等領域進行投資。
This will be partially offset by the benefits of Project Jeanius and prudent discretionary spending. EPS is expected to be in the range of $5.20 to $5.30, representing an increase of 6% to 8%. Full-year EPS does not include the benefit of share repurchases as a result of the pending acquisition of Helly Hansen. Our outlook also does not yet reflect the expected revenue, earnings, and cash flow contribution from Helly. Assuming a closing during the second quarter of 2025, we anticipate approximately $0.15 of accretion to the full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share. This outlook does not include any benefit from potential synergies.
這將被 Jeanius 計畫和審慎的自由支配支出所帶來的收益部分抵銷。預計每股收益將在 5.20 美元至 5.30 美元之間,增幅為 6% 至 8%。全年每股盈餘不包括因即將收購 Helly Hansen 而產生的股票回購收益。我們的展望尚未反映 Helly 的預期收入、收益和現金流貢獻。假設在 2025 年第二季完成交易,我們預計 2025 年全年調整後每股盈餘將增加約 0.15 美元。這種前景並不包括任何潛在綜效帶來的好處。
We expect first-half EPS growth to be consistent with our full-year 2025 outlook.
我們預計上半年每股盈餘成長將與我們對 2025 年全年的展望一致。
We expect first-quarter EPS of approximately $1.16. Finally, we expect another year of strong cash generation. Cash from operations is anticipated to exceed $300 million, reflecting the cash-generative nature of our business. Our outlook does not include the contribution from Helly Hansen or the meaningful net working capital opportunity we discussed last week.
我們預計第一季每股收益約為 1.16 美元。最後,我們預計今年的現金流將再創強勁。預計經營現金流將超過 3 億美元,這反映了我們業務的現金產生性質。我們的展望不包括 Helly Hansen 的貢獻或我們上週討論的有意義的淨營運資本機會。
Before opening it up for questions, I'd like to reiterate the confidence we have in our ability to deliver our 2025 objectives. We have multiple paths to drive increasing revenue and operating earnings growth.
在開始提問之前,我想重申我們對實現 2025 年目標的能力充滿信心。我們有多種途徑來推動營收和營業利潤的成長。
The benefits of strong fundamentals, Project Jeanius, and the addition of Helly Hansen are a powerful combination. While the environment remains dynamic, we have a strong operating model that has proven resilient regardless of market conditions. I am highly confident in the strength of our team and the power of our enhanced TSR model and our ability to drive best-in-class returns in the years ahead.
強大的基本面、Jeanius 計畫以及 Helly Hansen 的加入構成了強大的組合。儘管環境依然充滿活力,但我們擁有強大的營運模式,無論市場狀況如何,模式都具有極強的韌性。我對我們團隊的實力、增強型 TSR 模型的威力以及我們在未來幾年實現一流回報的能力充滿信心。
This concludes our prepared remarks, and I'll now turn the call back to the operator.
我們的準備好的演講到此結束,現在我將把電話轉回給接線生。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo.
(操作員指示) 艾克·博魯喬夫,富國銀行。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
A couple of questions on my end. The first one I wanted to ask is just a little bit more detail on Lee. The DTC up, I think, around double digits, wholesale down around double digits. Just unpack that a bit and how that flows through the year based on your guide. And then, Joe, on the gross margin, just want to make sure I heard you right that gross is up 30% in the first quarter and up 10% to 20% for the first half.
我有幾個問題。我想問的第一個問題是有關李的更多細節。我認為,DTC 上漲了大約兩位數,批發量則下降了大約兩位數。只需根據您的指南稍微解開它並看看它如何貫穿全年。然後,喬,關於毛利率,我想確保我沒聽錯,第一季毛利率成長了 30%,上半年成長了 10% 到 20%。
If I heard that right, why would the second quarter gross margin expansion be less than Q1 (inaudible) in the second quarter?
如果我沒聽錯的話,為什麼第二季的毛利率擴張會低於第一季(聽不清楚)?
There are some seasonal dynamics just in terms of mix. But the biggest driver is we expect product cost tailwinds, a modest product cost tailwind in the first quarter, and then that begins to flip to a headwind based on the product cost inflation that we expect to see that we can see given the inventory commitments we've made to date. And then you have Project Jeanius beginning to kick in as we move into the second quarter and into the back half.
就組合而言,存在一些季節性動態。但最大的驅動因素是我們預計產品成本將出現順風,第一季產品成本將出現溫和的順風,然後根據我們預計會看到的產品成本通膨,這一趨勢將開始轉為逆風,從我們迄今為止做出的庫存承諾來看,我們可以看到這一點。當我們進入第二季和後半段時,Jeanius 專案開始發揮作用。
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
So I'll start with Lee and then kick it over to Tom. But basically, I do want to take you back a little bit. Years ago, when we started this journey 7 years ago almost, we had a little bit of a problem with Wrangler, and we went through a very elongated about 1.5 years process. We took Wrangler down to the studs, almost like building a new house, and we're doing the exact same thing with Lee right now. We're on the other side of it, but we feel really confident about it.
因此我將先從李開始,然後再交給湯姆。但基本上,我確實想帶你回顧一下。幾年前,當我們大約 7 年前開始這段旅程時,我們在 Wrangler 方面遇到了一些問題,我們經歷了大約 1.5 年的漫長過程。我們把 Wrangler 拆到最底層,就像建造一棟新房子一樣,現在我們對 Lee 也做著同樣的事情。我們處於另一邊,但我們對此充滿信心。
But what you're seeing right now from a sell-through, especially at D2C, is you're starting to see some of the new products and some of the resonation we're having with women specifically.
但你現在從銷售情況來看,尤其是在 D2C 方面,你開始看到一些新產品以及我們對女性的一些共鳴。
So our team has done a really good job getting ahead of that, building great product, telling really good stories, and we're able to bring that to life immediately because it's on our website and it's in our e-commerce channel. So that's why you're seeing the beginnings of that happening really nicely. So we're really proud of that and really happy, but that is the culmination of the work that's been going on for the past year.
因此,我們的團隊在這方面做得非常出色,打造了優秀的產品,講述了精彩的故事,我們能夠立即將其變為現實,因為它在我們的網站和我們的電子商務管道中。這就是為什麼你會看到這一切開始順利發生。因此,我們對此感到非常自豪和高興,但這是過去一年來工作的成果。
Now what you're going to see is you're going to see that continuation from a wholesale standpoint, but it takes a little bit longer, as you know, to fill that pipeline going forward. So we're at that inflection point right now, feeling really good as a team. But I will tell you an incredible amount of work we've had to change out some of the team.
現在,您將從批發的角度看到這種延續,但正如您所知,填補這一管道還需要更長的時間。所以我們現在正處於這個轉折點,作為一個團隊感覺非常好。但我要告訴你,為了更換部分團隊成員,我們付出了巨大的努力。
We've changed out some of our advertising agencies. We've really done a nice job from a product standpoint. We have left nothing untouched as we move forward. You saw what happened with Wrangler and all the work that was done. We're very optimistic that we're doing the same with Lee.
我們已經更換了一些廣告代理商。從產品角度來看,我們確實做得很好。我們在前進的過程中沒有留下任何未曾改變的東西。您看到了 Wrangler 所發生的事情以及所做的所有工作。我們非常樂觀地認為,我們與李的合作也將達到同樣的成果。
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. And I got to hand it to the leadership team. In terms of the team very quickly last year, really, as Scott said, took it down to the studs, created a new creative vision, new consumer targets, the product innovation. And that is something that's going to pull through and continue to accelerate as the year goes. Look, we have work to do with Lee.
是的。我必須把它交給領導團隊。正如史考特所說,就去年團隊而言,進展非常迅速,並真正做到了細節,創造了新的創意願景、新的消費者目標和產品創新。隨著時間的推移,這一進程將會繼續推進並加速。瞧,我們要和李做一些工作。
There's no question about it. We understand where our issues are, but we're really excited about the work that has been done by the leadership team. And I always look at DTC as a little bit of a leading indicator. So with that pulling through, it's resonating with the consumer. And so we're looking forward to this transition year and back to growth in '26.
毫無疑問。我們了解我們的問題所在,但我們對領導團隊所做的工作感到非常興奮。我總是將 DTC 視為一種領先指標。因此,透過這種方式,它引起了消費者的共鳴。因此,我們期待著這個過渡年的到來以及 26 年的恢復成長。
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
Ike Boruchow - Analyst
And then if I can sneak in one more for Joe. Basically, I just want to sanity-check the Genius math. So on Genius, you're saying $30 million benefits to this year with flow-through of $10 million to $15 million and that you'll see full benefits by the end of '26. So just to be clear, that leaves $70 million plus of Genius benefits for '26 and if the reinvestment rate is similar to '25, which seems like it's 35% to 50% roughly, that would imply you guys have around $25 million to $35 million at a minimum of EBIT tailwind from the initiative when you go into '26. Is that at a high level, is that the right way to think about it?
然後我是否可以再偷偷給喬一個。基本上,我只是想檢查一下 Genius 數學是否合理。因此,就 Genius 而言,您說今年的收益為 3000 萬美元,其中流通金額為 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元,到 26 年底您將看到全部收益。因此需要明確的是,這意味著 26 年 Genius 福利將超過 7,000 萬美元,如果再投資率與 25 年相似,大約為 35% 到 50%,那就意味著當你們進入 26 年時,你們將從該計劃中獲得至少 2,500 萬到 3,500 萬美元的息稅順風 (EBIT) 順風。從高層次來看,這是正確的思考方式嗎?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, you got the numbers right, Ike. Let me just unpack that a bit because there's a lot in there. So we are delivering $30 million of savings in '25 on a gross basis. We intend to reinvest about half of those back into the business and the brands to fuel the growth initiatives that we have in front of us. About $10 million of that will come on the gross margin side, concentrated primarily in the fourth quarter given the lead times in the supply chain and the lag effect as to when those benefits start to show up in the P&L.
是的,艾克,你的數字是正確的。讓我稍微解釋一下,因為裡面有很多內容。因此,我們在 25 年總共節省了 3000 萬美元。我們打算將其中約一半的資金重新投資於業務和品牌,以推動我們面臨的成長計劃。其中約 1000 萬美元將用於毛利率,主要集中在第四季度,因為供應鏈的交貨時間以及這些收益何時開始體現在損益表中的滯後效應。
So as you can imagine, as we turn the corner into '26, those benefits start to scale quite meaningfully.
因此你可以想像,當我們進入 26 年時,這些好處將開始顯著擴大。
On the SG&A side, we're delivering about $20 million of savings. Those are more evenly dispersed throughout the year, but we do expect those savings to grow in '26 as we continue to execute against the initiatives within the program. From a reinvestment perspective, we're investing half this year. That's not necessarily representative of where we'll end up. We'll continue to appropriately balance and evaluate the investment opportunities we have against our goal of accelerating growth but also improving profitability and returns on capital.
在銷售、一般及行政費用方面,我們節省了約 2,000 萬美元。這些節省在全年分佈較為均勻,但隨著我們繼續執行該計劃中的舉措,我們預計這些節省將在 26 年內增長。從再投資的角度來看,我們今年的投資為一半。這不一定代表我們最終的結局。我們將繼續適當平衡和評估我們的投資機會,以實現加速成長以及提高獲利能力和資本回報率的目標。
So that's the big picture.
這就是總體情況。
I'd say just one more thing. We're thoughtful about the approach given the integration of Helly but the end goal hasn't changed. But we are mindful on just the burden on the organization just given the pending integration we have in front of us. So again, no change to the end goal, but we may resequence some things as we move through '25 and '26.
我只想再說一件事。考慮到 Helly 的整合,我們對方法進行了深思熟慮,但最終目標並沒有改變。但考慮到我們面臨的整合問題,我們非常清楚這會對組織造成負擔。所以,最終目標沒有改變,但我們可能會在 25 年和 26 年期間重新安排一些事情的順序。
Operator
Operator
Jim Duffy, Stifel.
吉姆·達菲(Jim Duffy),Stifel。
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Nice work with the working capital and the return on invested capital. Two questions for you. First, just a little more detail on the mechanics of the gross margin benefits for Project Jeanius, explain how that scales in '26, and speak to the incremental opportunities you've identified that take you beyond the $100 million initial objective. And then on Helly Hansen's accretion, the assumptions look super conservative given the seasonality of the business. That seems to imply just low to mid-single-digit operating margin in their seasonally strong 3Q, 4Q.
營運資金和投資資本報酬率表現良好。問你兩個問題。首先,請稍微詳細地介紹一下 Jeanius 專案毛利率收益的機制,解釋一下 26 年的規模如何,並談談您發現的可以使您超越 1 億美元初始目標的增量機會。然後,關於 Helly Hansen 的增值,考慮到業務的季節性,這些假設看起來非常保守。這似乎意味著,在季節性強勁的第三季和第四季度,其營業利潤率僅為低至中等個位數。
I'm curious, the $0.15 estimate, is that a pro forma number for the full year? Or is there something else that explains why that's not higher?
我很好奇,0.15 美元的估計數字是全年的預測數字嗎?或者有其他原因可以解釋為什麼這個數字沒有更高?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Thanks, Jim. So I'll start with Helly. So in terms of the outlook, we said we have not included at this point the revenue, earnings, or cash flow contribution at this point. The ultimate accretion is going to be somewhat dependent on the closing date, which we do expect to occur in the second quarter.
是的。謝謝,吉姆。因此我將從 Helly 開始。因此,就前景而言,我們表示目前還沒有包括收入、收益或現金流貢獻。最終的成長將在一定程度上取決於截止日期,我們預計截止日期將在第二季發生。
Helly does lose money in the second quarter, similar to other outdoor brands just given the seasonality of the business. So about 60% of the business is in the second half where we expect growth on both the top line and earnings to accelerate. We said about $0.15 of accretion in '25 based on what we can see today. That's basically the EBITDA we expect in the back half of the year minus the interest expense on the debt financing.
Helly 在第二季確實虧損,這與其他戶外品牌類似,只是因為業務的季節性。因此,大約 60% 的業務發生在下半年,我們預期營業收入和獲利的成長都將加速。根據我們今天所看到的情況,我們預計 25 年的增幅約為 0.15 美元。這基本上就是我們預計下半年的 EBITDA 減去債務融資的利息支出。
We have not included synergies in that accretion math at this point. We have not included what we believe to be significant working capital and cash-generation opportunities for the business under our ownership.
目前我們還沒有將協同效應納入這一成長數學。我們沒有將我們認為對我們所有業務而言重要的營運資本和現金產生機會納入其中。
So more to come on that, Jim. We've got to get through closing, and we'll give you an update based on what we see at the time. But I think suffice to say, we're really excited about the acquisition and the value creation opportunity we see within our portfolio.
吉姆,關於這一點,我們還會繼續討論。我們必須完成收尾工作,並根據當時看到的情況向您提供最新消息。但我認為可以說,我們對此次收購以及我們在投資組合中看到的價值創造機會感到非常興奮。
So on Jeanius, I'll take the financial piece of this, Jim. I mean we talked about optimizing the balance between our own manufacturing and sourced. In some cases, that does lead to lower costs.
因此,關於 Jeanius,我將承擔財務部分,吉姆。我的意思是我們討論瞭如何優化我們自己的製造和採購之間的平衡。在某些情況下,這確實會降低成本。
We're committing to that inventory as we speak. Those costs will begin to show up in the P&L in the back half, mainly in the fourth quarter, and that will carry through into 2026. Cost is just one factor in terms of the total equation. We're focused on speed, our ability to react, certainly servicing our accounts and that capability has been a real source of strength for us over time. But that's the biggest benefit as we sit today in terms of what's driving it in '25.
我們正在致力於這項庫存。這些成本將在下半年(主要是第四季)開始體現在損益表中,並將持續到 2026 年。成本只是整個方程中的一個因素。我們注重速度、反應能力,當然也注重客戶服務,而這種能力一直以來都是我們真正的力量來源。但就推動 25 年發展的因素而言,這卻是今天最大的優勢。
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Jim Duffy - Analyst
And then, Joe, what is it that takes you beyond the $100 million initial objective? What are the incremental opportunities you've identified with Project Jeanius?
那麼,喬,是什麼讓您超越了 1 億美元的初始目標?您認為 Jeanius 計畫有哪些增量機會?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. It's both gross margin and SG&A, Jim, just as we get deeper into the execution phase, we're just -- we're finding more opportunity just as we start to move into execution.
是的。吉姆,這既是毛利率,也是銷售、一般及行政費用,就在我們深入執行階段時,我們在開始進入執行階段時發現了更多機會。
Operator
Operator
Brooke Roach, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的布魯克·羅奇。
Brooke Roach - Analyst
Brooke Roach - Analyst
I was hoping we could follow up on Ike's question and unpack the transitions that you're seeing for Lee from a distribution perspective, particularly in the U.S. How should we expect the Lee brand distribution footprint to look when you complete the transformation year?
我希望我們能夠跟進艾克的問題,並從分銷角度解析您所看到的李氏品牌的轉型,特別是在美國。當您完成轉型年時,我們應該如何期待李氏品牌的分銷足跡?
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I'll take that. Thanks, Brooke. So as we talked about, there has been some transition, particularly in the club area. But as we look at this brand and we look at creating this creative vision and this kind of new consumer target and a new elevated sort of outlook for it, we expect to expand distribution in the current footprint in terms of space and real estate but also moving into upper tier distribution, certainly some specialty. Not going to get into any particular accounts, but this is all about elevating the brand and moving the brand up as we think two to three years out.
是的,我接受。謝謝,布魯克。正如我們所談到的,已經發生了一些轉變,特別是在俱樂部區域。但是,當我們審視這個品牌並著眼於創造這種創造性願景、這種新的消費者目標和一種新的更高層次的展望時,我們期望在空間和房地產方面擴大現有覆蓋範圍內的分銷,同時也進入上層分銷領域,當然是一些專業領域。不會涉及任何特定帳戶,但這一切都是為了提升品牌,並在我們認為兩到三年內推動品牌發展。
Brooke Roach - Analyst
Brooke Roach - Analyst
And if I could just follow up on the investments in demand creation that you're expecting. Can you speak to the percent of sales and marketing that you plan to spend this year and how we should be thinking about any cadence of sequential investment between Wrangler and Lee?
我是否可以跟進您所期望的需求創造投資。您能否談談今年計劃在銷售和行銷方面投入的百分比,以及我們應該如何考慮 Wrangler 和 Lee 之間連續投資的節奏?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. On the percent of revenue, Brooke, I mean, we moved higher this year. I think our demand creation in the back half was up at a double-digit rate if not a little bit more than that. We'll continue to invest behind demand creation at a rate above revenue, pretty meaningfully above revenue in 2025.
是的。布魯克,就收入百分比而言,我的意思是,今年我們的收入有所增加。我認為我們下半年的需求創造成長率達到了兩位數,甚至更高。我們將繼續以高於收入的速度投資於需求創造,到 2025 年將大大高於收入。
I'll let Tom speak to the Wrangler versus Lee.
我會讓湯姆談論牧馬人與李之間的對決。
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So as we think about last year, we had our new equity campaign that launched really in September of last year with Wrangler. That was the highest testing equity campaign that we had ever had. We're really excited about the results of that. The metrics that are pulling through from a brand equity standpoint are really, really encouraging.
是的。因此,當我們回想起去年時,我們與 Wrangler 合作推出了新的股權運動。這是我們迄今所進行的考驗最高的公平運動。我們對於這項結果感到非常興奮。從品牌資產角度來看,這些指標確實非常令人鼓舞。
We also invested behind it.
我們也對其進行了投資。
With Lee, we were in a transition year. And as we have spent last year getting ourselves ready for this year in terms of having an equity campaign launch in the back half of 2025, we're really excited about investing behind the Lee brand, just like we did on the Wrangler brand. As you can see, the results from the investments behind Wrangler were fantastic in both the market share gains, but also the shipments, and we expect similar results on Lee.
在與李在一起的一年裡,我們正處於轉型期。我們去年為今年做好了準備,並計劃在 2025 年下半年啟動股權投資活動,因此,我們非常高興能夠投資 Lee 品牌,就像投資 Wrangler 品牌一樣。如您所見,Wrangler 的投資成果非常出色,不僅增加了市場份額,還增加了出貨量,我們預計 Lee 的投資也會取得類似的成果。
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
So Brooke, this is Scott. Just one quick comment. Through the years, you've seen brands that have made significant investments behind the brand in marketing and storytelling, and you've seen the message miss. And I think that's the most important thing here. Relative to how the message has landed with Wrangler, I think what you're going to see from Lee going forward is a much more intelligent approach, a better approach, and a message that will land going forward.
布魯克,這是斯科特。僅一則簡短的評論。多年來,您已經看到一些品牌在行銷和品牌故事方面投入了大量資金,但您也看到資訊缺失。我認為這是最重要的事情。相對於 Wrangler 所傳達的訊息,我認為你將會看到 Lee 採取更聰明的方法、更好的方法以及能夠在未來傳達的訊息。
So at the end, those dollars are going to work smarter and work harder for us as a company going forward.
所以最終,這些資金將會更明智、更努力地為我們公司的未來發展服務。
Brooke Roach - Analyst
Brooke Roach - Analyst
And just finally, I was hoping we could elaborate on tariffs in more detail. You've spoken about a $50 million unmitigated potential impact for this year with a potential offset within 12 to 18 months. Can you talk to the mitigatory actions you are evaluating and how much of that mitigation you could action on in 2025 should these tariffs get put in place?
最後,我希望我們能更詳細地闡述關稅問題。您談到了今年 5000 萬美元的未緩解潛在影響,並可能在 12 到 18 個月內抵消。您能否談談您正在評估的緩解措施,以及如果這些關稅得以實施,到 2025 年您可以採取多少緩解措施?
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So I'll go ahead and start. So Brooke, as you can imagine, this has been going on for a little while. So we've had a chance to go ahead and run through multiple versions of analysis on how we're going to go ahead and approach this. And I think we're in a really good spot relative to how we're going to do that.
當然。那我繼續開始吧。布魯克,你可以想像,這種情況已經持續了一段時間了。因此,我們有機會繼續進行並運行多個版本的分析,以了解我們將如何繼續處理這個問題。我認為,就如何實現這一目標而言,我們現在處於一個非常有利的位置。
Joe can speak a little bit more from a specificity standpoint for what he's already said in his script. But from a strategic standpoint, what I'll tell you is we do have a plan in place. We do have auxiliary plans dependent upon this situation. If it sticks, I think we're all hopeful that this will go ahead and work itself out over time.
喬可以從具體性的角度多講一些他已經在劇本中說過的內容。但從策略角度來看,我要告訴你的是,我們確實有一個計劃。我們確實有取決於這種情況的輔助計劃。如果這項計劃能夠成功,我想我們都希望它能夠順利進行,並隨著時間的推移得到解決。
And maybe it doesn't work itself out from the beginning, but maybe it works itself out over time during the year. So we've taken a couple of different approaches on how we're looking at it relative to the timing of it.
也許它一開始不會自動發揮作用,但也許隨著時間的推移它會自動發揮作用。因此,我們採取了幾種不同的方法來看待與時間相關的問題。
But this has been fairly fluid, as you know, and it still has some more time before it actually takes place and happens, but we're ready for it. And I think the one thing that gives me more comfort than anything is we are really good at this, and we are really strong from a supply chain standpoint. And we have a lot of levers to pull.
但如你所知,這一切都相當不穩定,距離真正發生還需要一些時間,但我們已經準備好了。我認為最讓我感到安慰的是我們在這方面確實很擅長,而且從供應鏈的角度來看我們確實很強大。我們還有很多手段可以運用。
We can start pulling those immediately, and they will flow fairly quickly in '25. And then I feel confident by some inflection point, which we should talk about if these come into play and these stick at our next call or two, talk about when that will all be mitigated in '26. But there will be a point in '26 where we're past these if, in fact, they stick and stay in place.
我們可以立即開始拉動它們,它們將在 25 年內流動得相當快。然後我對某個轉折點充滿信心,我們應該討論這些因素是否發揮作用,並在我們下一次或兩次電話會議中堅持下去,討論何時這些問題將在 26 年得到緩解。但如果這些因素確實持續存在,那麼到 26 年,我們就會度過這些難關。
But I think more to come relative to that. Anything to add?
但我認為與此相關的還有更多。還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Operator
Operator
Paul Kearney, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的保羅·科爾尼。
Paul Kearney - Analyst
Paul Kearney - Analyst
I guess going back to Lee, can you share some of your findings from the consumer insight work on Lee? Who is the current customer? And what is the segmentation of the customer you'll be going after? And then I have a follow-up after that.
我想回到李的話題,您能否分享一些關於李的消費者洞察研究的發現?當前客戶是誰?您要爭取的客戶細分是怎樣的?然後我也會進行後續跟進。
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, I'll take that. And I'm not going to get into in terms of that would be more of like an Investor Day type thing get into all the work that we've done. What I will say is that we probably, in the past, overshot going after a consumer that was too aspirational, too edgy. And now what we're doing is going after what we would call a very smart consumer who's very interested in fashion, but not on that edge -- and what really was happening, Paul, is the Helly effect wasn't translating to our core consumer. And so this new consumer that we're going after from our target will have a much better halo on our core consumer.
是的,我接受。我不會深入探討這一點,我更願意在投資者日之類的場合討論我們所做的所有工作。我想說的是,我們過去可能過度追求那些有太強抱負、太急躁的消費者。現在,我們所做的就是追逐那些對時尚很感興趣但又不至於太過邊緣的聰明消費者——而保羅,實際情況是,赫利效應並沒有轉化到我們的核心消費者身上。因此,我們目標客戶群中的新消費者將對我們的核心消費者產生更好的影響。
That's just one example. We could spend a lot of time with you on this. But in general, I can assure you that there has been a lot of consumer research, a complete segmentation revamp on the Lee, who we're going after from a product standpoint and a marketing standpoint. And we're just going to show up a lot smarter that really is going to help us drive volume as opposed to I think we were chasing a little bit too far beyond what was going to help us drive our business.
這只是一個例子。我們可以花很多時間與您討論這個問題。但總的來說,我可以向你們保證,我們已經對消費者進行了大量的研究,對李氏進行了徹底的細分改造,我們將從產品和行銷的角度來追求李氏。我們將表現得更加聰明,這確實會幫助我們提高銷量,而不是像我認為的那樣,我們追求的目標有點超出了幫助我們推動業務發展的範圍。
Paul Kearney - Analyst
Paul Kearney - Analyst
And just a quick one on tariffs. Assuming they go through, I guess, how quickly does the impact begin to kind of flow through inventory and into the P&L? And then how quickly do you anticipate pulling levers to start to mitigate it?
我只想簡單談談關稅問題。假設他們通過了,我想,影響會多快開始透過庫存流入損益表?那麼,您預計需要多快才能開始採取措施來緩解這個問題?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Paul. So look, we've got about 100 days of inventory. So assuming those tariffs go into effect next week, you're a couple of months away before when those would start to show up in the P&L. So I would think late Q2 and our response, again, depending on what we decide to do in terms of potential price increases or moving production around the supply chain, there'd be a lag effect.
是的。保羅。所以看,我們有大約 100 天的庫存。因此,假設這些關稅將於下週生效,那麼距離這些關稅開始在損益表中體現還有幾個月的時間。因此,我認為在第二季末,我們的反應將會產生滯後效應,這取決於我們在潛在價格上漲或在供應鏈中轉移生產方面的決定。
So you'd start to see the mitigating actions show up late second half 2025 and into early '26.
因此,你會在 2025 年下半年末和 2026 年初開始看到緩解措施的出現。
Operator
Operator
Mauricio Serna, UBS.
Mauricio Serna 的瑞銀。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Maybe could you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in terms of the health of the consumer. Just interested how you saw the POS trends decelerate in February meaningfully after a good start of the year. So just wondering what you're seeing across channels and across segments. And then maybe could you elaborate on the Wrangler brand momentum? I guess we've seen like pretty strong growth for many years -- for several years now.
您能否再多談談您所看到的消費者健康狀況?我只是感興趣你如何看到 POS 趨勢在今年開局良好之後在 2 月份顯著放緩。所以只是想知道您在各個管道和各個細分市場看到了什麼。那麼,您能否詳細說明一下牧馬人品牌的發展動能呢?我想我們已經看到多年來相當強勁的成長——已經有好幾年了。
So is it fair to assume that there's going to be like -- this will be like another year of very divergent performance between Wrangler and Lee?
那麼,是否可以合理地假設,今年 Wrangler 和 Lee 的表現又將出現巨大差異?
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mauricio, I'll go ahead and take the consumer and then shift over to Tom for Wrangler. So I think it's really simple from a consumer standpoint, and I talked to the team about this a lot and talk to our Board about this a lot. The consumer right now is confused. If you just put yourself in their seat, they're worried about work. They're worried about the businesses that they're in.
毛里西奧,我將繼續負責消費者事務,然後交給湯姆負責牧馬人事務。因此,我認為從消費者的角度來看真的很簡單,我和團隊討論過很多次這個問題,也和我們的董事會討論過很多次這個問題。消費者現在很困惑。如果你設身處地為他們著想,他們就會擔心工作。他們對自己所從事的業務感到擔憂。
Are those going to be impacted by some of the layoffs, the tariffs, the current situation right now? When will that fold through and when will they be able to get back to some sort of normalcy?
這些是否會受到裁員、關稅和當前情勢的影響?什麼時候這一切才能結束,什麼時候他們才能恢復正常?
Any time the consumer is feeling a little bit under attack like that, they get very conservative. And I think that we are in this country right now seeing that conservatism from the consumer because of their worry. I think we'll get through that. There's a lot of noise in the system right now.
每當消費者感到受到這樣的攻擊時,他們就會變得非常保守。我認為,我們國家現在看到消費者因為擔心而採取保守態度。我想我們會渡過難關的。目前系統中存在著許多噪音。
And instead of it being a little bit more simple like it's been in the past relative to maybe one specific thing is driving that worry, we have multiple things driving that worry right now, and we just need to work through that. We've all seen it, and we've all been through these types of times.
與過去的情況不同,情況並不簡單,可能只是某件特定的事情導致了這種擔憂,但現在我們有多個事情導致了這種擔憂,我們只需要努力解決它。我們都見過這種情況,也都經歷過這種情況。
And I think the most important thing that we will do here as an organization is we will continue to grow these brands -- we'll continue to invest behind them, continue to talk to our consumers in a really sophisticated way. We'll work really hard on Project Jeanius, and then we'll integrate everything that we're doing with Helly Hansen and pull that whole package together. And then we will all hopefully work through what's currently right now, just a very unpredictable time. And as soon as we can get to some more predictable state, we should all be in a really good place.
我認為,作為一個組織,我們要做的最重要的事情就是繼續發展這些品牌——我們將繼續對它們進行投資,繼續以一種真正複雜的方式與我們的消費者對話。我們將在 Jeanius 專案上付出巨大努力,然後整合與 Helly Hansen 合作所做的一切,並將整個專案整合在一起。然後我們都希望能夠度過當前這個非常難以預測的時期。一旦我們能夠達到更可預測的狀態,我們就會處於一個非常好的位置。
And I feel really good about where we're positioned now. And I even feel better about how we'll come out of this on the other side. Tom?
我對我們現在的處境感到非常滿意。我甚至對我們如何擺脫困境感到更加欣慰。湯姆?
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thomas Waldron - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. And from a Wrangler standpoint, we anticipate we will continue to take market share with Wrangler. I believe we're on the 11th quarter of market share gains. We're really proud of really the foundational work that set that up. That is something that is a long wake and that will continue.
是的。從牧馬人的角度來看,我們預期我們將繼續憑藉牧馬人佔領市場份額。我相信我們的市場份額已經連續第 11 個季度成長。我們對於建立這項基礎的工作感到非常自豪。這是一個漫長的過程,並且會持續下去。
We think about the equity campaign that launched in September of last year. From a metric standpoint, as I mentioned before, it's fantastic. All our metric scores are up, particularly in familiarity and consideration. And that will -- if you think about that Q1, Q2, Q3 up against a nonequity campaign. So that is a tailwind for the Wrangler brand.
讓我們思考一下去年九月發起的公平運動。從度量角度來看,正如我之前提到的,這非常棒。我們的所有指標得分都有所上升,特別是在熟悉度和考慮度方面。如果您考慮 Q1、Q2、Q3 與非股權運動的對比,那將會是這樣的。這對牧馬人品牌來說是一個順風。
Additionally, the real estate gains that we had gotten in the third and fourth quarters of last year, those will wrap. Those performed. It also created some really nice real estate wins for us in the back half of 2025. And so that also will help us continue to take market share from a brand standpoint. As we talked about before with Lee, this will be a reset year, but we're really encouraged about early signs as we move through the year, we will get stronger, and we're really looking forward to '26.
此外,我們去年第三季和第四季獲得的房地產收益也將會累積。那些表演。它還為我們在 2025 年下半年創造了一些非常好的房地產勝利。從品牌角度來看,這也將有助於我們繼續佔領市場份額。正如我們之前與李談到的那樣,這將是一個重置的一年,但我們對今年的早期跡象感到非常鼓舞,我們會變得更強大,我們真的很期待 26 年。
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Joseph Alkire - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mauricio, I just want to go back to the outlook because I know there are a lot of moving pieces. But look, there's no change to our growth outlook on a full-year basis versus 120 days ago, excluding the impact of FX. The outlook includes 2% to 4% revenue growth, excluding currency, solid gross margin expansion. We've got 5% to 7% operating earnings growth with EPS growth of 6% to 8% and strong cash generation of over $300 million. So the outlook is -- it's balanced.
毛里西奧,我只是想回到展望問題上,因為我知道有很多事情需要考慮。但是,排除外匯的影響,與 120 天前相比,我們對全年成長的預期沒有變化。預期包括2%至4%的收入成長(不包括貨幣因素)和穩健的毛利率成長。我們的營業利潤成長率為 5% 至 7%,每股盈餘成長率為 6% 至 8%,現金流強勁,超過 3 億美元。因此前景是平衡的。
It's more balanced than it was first half versus the second half from both the revenue and an earnings growth perspective. The fundamentals of the business are strong. Our expected return on capital is strong, and we've got Project Jeanius that's giving us the opportunity to increase the rate of investment behind our brands.
從營收和獲利成長的角度來看,上半年與下半年相比更加平衡。該業務的基本面十分強勁。我們的預期資本回報率很高,而且我們的 Jeanius 專案讓我們有機會提高品牌投資率。
So look, we think we're really well positioned. Our model has proven to be very resilient.
所以,我們認為我們確實處於有利地位。事實證明,我們的模型非常有彈性。
But what we've tried to do with the outlook is help you understand the bookends. So at the low end of the outlook, we've assumed the POS trends, the softer trends that we've seen in February that, that continues through the balance of the year. At the high end of the outlook, we've assumed POS trends that are positive and more consistent with what we've seen over the last 6 to 12 months. We've seen this variability throughout 2024. Consistent with '24, we've not assumed that our retailers change inventory levels relative to how they've been managing very conservatively over the past 12 months.
但我們試圖透過展望來幫助您理解書擋。因此,在前景的低端,我們假設 POS 趨勢,即我們在二月看到的較弱趨勢,將持續到今年年底。在前景的高端,我們假設 POS 趨勢是正面的,並且與我們在過去 6 到 12 個月所看到的趨勢更加一致。我們在 2024 年全年都看到了這種變化。與 24 一致,我們並沒有假設我們的零售商會根據過去 12 個月非常保守的管理方式改變庫存水準。
So hopefully, that helps you just understand some of the assumptions that are included in the outlook we provided today.
所以希望這能幫助您理解我們今天提供的展望中所包含的一些假設。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Scott Baxter for closing comments.
問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給斯科特·巴克斯特 (Scott Baxter) 來做最後評論。
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Scott Baxter - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Certainly appreciate it. And really appreciate the thoughtful questions, gives us an opportunity to kind of share with you everything that we have going on here. I'm really proud of the team and all the effort that's going into the initiatives that we have. And one of the things that I look back on after doing this for a very long time is that during these times, are you working on the right things?
感謝大家今天加入我們。當然很感激。非常感謝這些深思熟慮的問題,這讓我們有機會與你們分享我們在這裡所做的一切。我為我們的團隊以及我們為這些計劃付出的所有努力感到非常自豪。經過很長一段時間的從事這項工作後,我回顧的一件事是,在這段時間裡,你所做的是正確的事嗎?
And is the team focused on what they need to do to go ahead and get your business into a better position? And I feel really confident about Kontoor Brands and what we're doing in that respect. So look forward to our next quarterly call. Thank you for your participation today, and we'll look forward to talking to you all soon. Thanks, everyone.
團隊是否專注於他們需要做的事情,以便繼續前進並使您的業務處於更好的地位?我對 Kontoor Brands 以及我們在這方面所做的事情充滿信心。因此,期待我們的下一次季度電話會議。感謝您今天的參與,我們期待很快與大家交談。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。