Kaspi.kz AO (KSPI) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Kaspi.kz first quarter 2026 financial results. My name is Elliot, and I'll be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions).

    各位好,歡迎參加 Kaspi.kz 2026 年第一季財務業績發布會。我叫 Elliot,今天將擔任協調人。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to hand it over to David Ferguson, Head of Investor Relations at Kaspi.kz. Please go ahead.

    接下來我想把時間交給 Kaspi.kz 投資人關係主管 David Ferguson。請開始。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Elliot. Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Kaspi KZ's first quarter 2026 financial results call. I'm David Ferguson from Kaspi. As usual, with me on the call, I've got our co-founder and CEO, Mikheil Lomtadze, the rest of the management team members of the management team, Tengiz Mosidze, and Yuri Didenko, our deputy CEOs of the company.

    謝謝你,Elliot。各位早安、午安。歡迎參加 Kaspi KZ 2026 年第一季財務業績電話會議。我是 Kaspi 的 David Ferguson。照例,與我一同出席的有我們的共同創辦人兼執行長 Mikheil Lomtadze,以及管理團隊的其他成員 Tengiz Mosidze 和 Yuri Didenko,他們是公司的副執行長。

  • We're going to do things a little bit differently to how we've done them in the past. So for today and going forward, we're going to make the first quarter and the third quarter calls financial updates and where relevant updates to the guidance. There's no change to today. And then we'll keep the full year results and the interim results for more detailed calls where Mikhail will talk about the strategy. Products, other initiatives going on in the company. So I think this should be a more efficient way of doing things, particularly I know a lot of you have multiple companies reporting at the same time, and it should make for more interesting full year and interim results calls.

    我們今天會用與過去稍有不同的方式進行。因此從今天起並在未來,我們會把第一季與第三季電話會議定位為財務更新,並在相關時提供對財測指引的更新。今天的安排沒有改變。然後我們會把全年業績與期中業績留作更深入的電話會議,屆時 Mikheil 會談策略、產品,以及公司正在推進的其他計畫。我認為這會是更有效率的方式,尤其我知道你們很多人同時要跟多家公司在同一時間發布業績,也會讓全年與期中業績電話會議更有看點。

  • So on that note, I will hand over to Mikhail. He'll make a couple of introductory comments, and then I'll take you through the rest of the presentation. Mikhail, over to you.

    基於這點,我把時間交給 Mikheil。他會先做幾點開場說明,接著我會帶大家看完其餘簡報。Mikheil,交給你。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, David. Hello, everyone.

    謝謝你,David。各位好。

  • So, we have started a year and the first quarter with good growth and strong growth in e-commerce, which was driven by the also higher purchasing frequency and some of the services, value-added services showing additional monetization faster than.

    我們以良好的成長開啟今年與第一季,電商表現強勁,主要受更高的購買頻次所帶動,同時部分服務、加值服務也展現出更快的額外變現速度,甚至快於……

  • Then the GMV growth itself. So, our e-commerce did grew 41% year over year on a constant currency and proforma basis. And importantly, the transactions grew 43% year over year. And then frequency of the quarterly purchases now reached 15, which is also quite a substantial growth of 44% year over year.

    GMV 本身的成長。因此,我們的電商在固定匯率與擬制(pro forma)基礎下年增 41%。更重要的是,交易筆數年增 43%。此外,季度購買頻次目前已達到 15 次,年增 44%,這也是相當可觀的成長。

  • We are remaining a very profitable company. And we're happy that the board recommended a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, which represents about 64% payout ratio. I mean, the general sort of message for everyone is pretty simple that we are creating a much larger, bigger, more diversified business. And now we're happy with both building on our strength of the super app leading positions in our home market, Kazakhstan, but also creating additional growth in Turkey. The one thing which I wanted to mention briefly that e-commerce for us is important, as I've mentioned before. We are the company which is focused on the front end of the consumer and merchant relationship. And when I say front end of consumer and merchant relationship, I mean to the point where the purchase and sale decision is happening and the purchase and sale decision is happening on e-commerce, where consumers are searching, reviewing and buying goods on the one hand.

    我們仍然是一家非常獲利的公司。我們也很高興董事會建議每 ADS 配發 850 堅戈(KZT)的股利,約相當於 64% 的配息率。我想要傳達給大家的整體訊息很簡單:我們正在打造一個更大、更多元化的業務。現在我們很高興一方面在本土市場哈薩克斯坦持續鞏固超級 App 的領先地位與優勢,另一方面也在土耳其創造額外成長。我想簡要提到的一點是,電商對我們很重要,正如我之前提過。我們是一家聚焦於消費者與商家關係「前端」的公司。所謂前端,是指購買與銷售決策發生的那個環節;而購買與銷售決策正是在電商上發生:一方面消費者在電商上搜尋、評價並購買商品。

  • In the future with the help of the AI agents. And on the other hand, you have merchants that are also creating those listings and getting additional sales. And when you combine this together on top of it, you do have additional value-added services. The simplest today would be advertising and delivery value-added services, which have grown actually quite substantially, about 73% year over year.

    未來在 AI 代理(AI agents)的協助下會更是如此。另一方面,商家也在建立商品刊登並獲得更多銷售。當你把這些結合在一起,其上還有額外的加值服務。最簡單的例子是目前的廣告與配送加值服務,其實年增相當顯著,約年增 73%。

  • So we. We remain very optimistic. We believe in the future of our company, as you've probably been already learned that I've made investment myself alongside with Tencent and other long-term shareholders. And I remain fully aligned and true believer in the company. And we are really excited about some of the services we're working on. So, hopefully during the year, as David mentioned, we'll be providing more detailed overview of some of the products we have been already launching. And then we'll be sharing with you how excited we are about the range of innovations which companies is launching and working on.

    因此我們仍然非常樂觀。我們相信公司的未來;你們可能已經知道,我本人也與騰訊(Tencent)及其他長期股東一起進行了投資。我仍然與公司完全一致,並且是真正的長期信仰者。我們也對正在開發的一些服務感到非常興奮。因此,希望在今年內,如 David 所提到的,我們會提供更詳細的產品概覽,包括我們已經推出的一些產品;同時也會與各位分享我們對公司正在推出與研發的一系列創新有多麼期待。

  • So that's, pretty much everything from me at this stage. Back to you, David.

    以上大致就是我在這個階段要分享的內容。交回給你,David。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Sure. So thanks a lot, Mikhail. I'll run through the financials, both at the platform, at the group level, and then a guide on the guidance. So just quickly to sort of summarize, consolidated revenue up 31% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA up 9% year-on-year. I think the simple message, the first quarter on track with where we expected to be. On the dividend, as Mikhail said, KZT 850 a share. This is the same amount as when we brought back the dividend for the fourth quarter. And we said at the time, extrapolate the amount throughout the four quarters of this year. So, it's consistent with what we've said and what you can assume for forecasting purposes. And then at a divisional level, marketplace GMV growth of 19%. This is. This is constant currency pro forma. So just to remind people, we acquired Hepsiburada at the end of January. So on a reported basis, it's in the numbers for three months this quarter versus two months, approximately two months in the first quarter of last year. Pro forma constant currency gives you the true indication, the real growth in the business. So marketplace GMV up 19% on the same basis, e-commerce GMV. Up 41% year on year. So that's sort of the true rate of growth in e-commerce. TPV up 14%, not affected to any material extent by Hepsiburada. TFV down 2%, but average loan portfolio up 23%. And I'll talk a little bit more about that later on.

    好的。非常感謝你,Mikheil。我將帶大家快速看一下財務數據,包括平台層面、集團層面,並說明財測指引。先簡要總結:合併營收年增 31%,調整後 EBITDA 年增 9%。我認為簡單的訊息是:第一季的表現符合我們的預期進度。關於股利,如 Mikheil 所說,每股(ADS)850 堅戈。這與我們在第四季恢復配息時的金額相同,當時我們也說過,可以把這個金額外推到今年四個季度。因此這與我們先前的說法一致,也可作為你們預測時的假設。接著看事業部層級:市集(marketplace)GMV 成長 19%。這是固定匯率的擬制口徑。提醒大家,我們在 1 月底收購了 Hepsiburada,因此在申報口徑下,本季數字包含三個月,而去年第一季約只包含兩個月。固定匯率擬制口徑能更真實反映業務的實際成長。因此市集 GMV 在同一口徑下年增 19%;電商 GMV 年增 41%,這就是電商的真實成長速度。TPV 年增 14%,基本未受到 Hepsiburada 的重大影響。TFV 年減 2%,但平均放款組合年增 23%。稍後我會再多談一些。

  • So moving on to the segments. As we talked about both at the full year results and for that matter over the last 12 months, e-commerce is one of our most important areas of focus and will be one of the main drivers of growth over the next couple of years. E-commerce GMV up 41% year on year. So again, constant currency pro forma, like for like. Driven by purchases up 43% year on year. And here again, we've spoken about the importance of driving order growth, both in Kazakhstan and in Turkey. You see the result of this or another way of looking at this, purchases per consumer on e-commerce up from 10.4 last year to 15 this year. That's really an indication that the existing consumer base is becoming more engaged. As we scale an engaged consumer base, it drives more opportunities for monetization around advertising, delivery, fintech, and so on. And it's the foundation of sustainable, healthy, long-term profitability in e-commerce. So that metric moving very much. In the right direction and contributing to the take rate increasing up 90 basis points year-on-year to 15.8%. Today, around half of the GMV is coming from Kazakhstan and Turkey, so the businesses are broadly equal in size and importance. With the bulk of the marketplace business being 3P, the 1P component is coming primarily from Hepsi, around a third of their GMV is 1P, with e-grocery in Kazakhstan also contributing. Again, to reinforce that point, you now see e-commerce revenue growing faster than GMV. Because of take rate expansion or because of growth in value-added services. In this case, this is advertising and delivery, revenue up 73% year on year versus e-commerce revenue growth up 58% year on year. So again, with a more engaged user base, more opportunities to drive monetization, and you see this coming through here. The revenue growth is, just to be clear, on the reported basis. And then if we look at marketplace growth, so again, just to keep in mind, e-commerce is around 60% of market GMV, marketplace GMV. The other 40% comes primarily from m-commerce and to a lesser extent travel in Kazakhstan. GMV growing at a slower rate, up 19% year-on-year, but with revenue growth up 49% and EBITDA up 12%.

    接著看各分部。如同我們在全年業績以及過去 12 個月多次提到的,電商是我們最重要的聚焦領域之一,並將在未來幾年成為主要成長動能之一。電商 GMV 年增 41%,同樣是固定匯率擬制、可比口徑。主要由購買筆數年增 43% 所帶動。我們也再次談到推動訂單成長的重要性,無論在哈薩克斯坦或土耳其。你可以從結果看出,或用另一種方式來看:電商每位消費者的購買次數從去年的 10.4 次提升到今年的 15 次。這清楚顯示既有消費者基礎的參與度正在提升。當我們擴大一個高參與度的消費者基礎時,會帶來更多在廣告、配送、金融科技等方面的變現機會,並且是電商可持續、健康、長期獲利能力的基礎。因此這項指標正明顯朝正確方向發展,並推動抽成率(take rate)年增 90 個基點至 15.8%。目前約有一半 GMV 來自哈薩克斯坦與土耳其,因此兩地業務在規模與重要性上大致相當。市集業務大部分為 3P,而 1P 組成主要來自 Hepsi,其 GMV 約三分之一為 1P;哈薩克斯坦的電商生鮮(e-grocery)也有貢獻。再次強調,你現在看到電商營收成長快於 GMV,原因是抽成率擴張或加值服務成長;在此案例中是廣告與配送,該部分營收年增 73%,而電商營收年增 58%。因此,隨著更高參與度的用戶基礎,帶來更多變現機會,你會在這裡看到反映。為了說清楚,這裡的營收成長是申報口徑。再看市集成長:同樣提醒,電商約占市集 GMV 的 60%;其餘 40% 主要來自哈薩克斯坦的行動商務(m-commerce),以及較小部分的旅遊。GMV 成長較慢,年增 19%,但營收年增 49%,EBITDA 年增 12%。

  • What we are seeing really is that that transition from offline to online retail or that transition from m-commerce to e-commerce is gathering momentum, hence the stronger growth from e-commerce versus overall marketplace GMV growth. Revenue up 49% from marketplace and EBITDA up 12%. On the EBITDA, that primarily reflects the inclusion of Hepsiburada. For the three-month period versus two months in 2025. As we've said previously, the aim with Hepsiburada is to keep it around EBITDA breakeven this year. So, you've got a full three-month consolidation of a business that's around EBITDA breakeven, slightly positive, hence the slower EBITDA growth versus the revenue growth. Moving on to payments, our payments, 15% TPV growth, sorry, 14% TPV growth versus the guidance of around 15%.

    我們真正看到的是,從線下到線上零售的轉型,或從行動商務(m-commerce)到電子商務(e-commerce)的轉型正在加速,因此電子商務的成長強於整體市集GMV的成長。市集收入年增49%,EBITDA年增12%。就EBITDA而言,這主要反映了Hepsiburada的納入。相較於2025年僅兩個月,本期為三個月期間。如同我們先前所說,對Hepsiburada的目標是今年維持在EBITDA損益兩平附近。因此,你看到的是一個約在EBITDA損益兩平、略為正向的業務被完整合併三個月,因而EBITDA成長相對於收入成長較慢。接著談支付業務,我們的支付TPV成長15%,抱歉,是TPV成長14%,相較於約15%的指引。

  • Revenue growing at a slower rate, up 7% year on year as a result of take rate compression. That is consistent with long-run trends driven by change in product mix in favor of Kaspi QR and particularly Kaspi B2B payments and overall flat EBITDA growth. Keep in mind that EBITDA excludes interest revenue. Interest revenue is around a quarter of payments revenue and the EBITDA metric doesn't capture that. So it's around a quarter of revenue and it grew about 26% year on year. So overall payments is large, more mature business, but still highly profitable and highly cash generative, as well as strategically being the driver. Of engagement across our other businesses in Kazakhstan.

    由於抽成率(take rate)受到壓縮,收入成長較慢,年增7%。這與長期趨勢一致,主要由產品組合變化所驅動,偏向Kaspi QR,尤其是Kaspi B2B支付,且整體EBITDA成長持平。請記住,EBITDA不包含利息收入。利息收入約占支付收入的四分之一,而EBITDA指標並未反映這部分。因此它約占收入的四分之一,且年增約26%。所以整體而言,支付是一個規模更大、更成熟的業務,但仍然高度獲利、現金創造能力強,並且在策略上是推動我們在哈薩克斯坦其他業務互動(engagement)的驅動因素。

  • And then moving on to fintech, and I'll spend a bit more time on this slide. So first of all, average net loan portfolio growth of 23% versus TFV decline of 2% and versus the guidance for the year of 5% TFV growth. We're deliberately choosing to prioritize longer duration loans that generate revenue, that generate more revenue. So TFV is an indication of origination, but TFV in itself doesn't drive revenue or financials. It's average loan portfolio that drives revenue, that drives bottom line of the business. So we're favoring longer duration loans, which generate more revenue. You can see the duration of the portfolio is increased from 7.9 months to 9.3 months. Effectively, what's happening is BNPL, small ticket short duration, is becoming smaller in the portfolio mix, and merchant financing and the general-purpose loan, which are the longer duration loans, are becoming larger in the mix. And while this change is going on, you have this sort of divergence between loan portfolio growth or widening. In loan portfolio growth and TFV growth. So, the combination of 23% loan portfolio growth with stable pricings, fintech yield of 6% year-on-year translates into 25%. Revenue growth and 12% adjusted EBITDA growth year-on-year. And as we've talked about for now several years, the EBITDA growth is being impacted by higher funding costs, increased around 220 bps year-on-year on the back of the interest rate increases in Kazakhstan last year and continues to pressure growth. If rates start to move down, and hopefully now we are at the point where rates have peaked, that will be very helpful to growth next year, profitability growth next year.

    接著談金融科技(fintech),我會在這張投影片多花一點時間。首先,平均淨放款組合年增23%,而TFV年減2%,相較於全年指引為TFV成長5%。我們刻意選擇優先發展期限較長、能帶來收入、能帶來更多收入的貸款。TFV是放款發起量(origination)的指標,但TFV本身並不驅動收入或財務表現。真正驅動收入、驅動業務最終獲利的是平均放款組合。因此我們偏好期限較長的貸款,因為它們能產生更多收入。你可以看到組合期限從7.9個月增加到9.3個月。實際上發生的是,BNPL(先買後付)這種小額、短期限產品在組合占比變小,而商戶融資與一般用途貸款(general-purpose loan)這些期限較長的貸款在組合占比變大。在這個變化過程中,你會看到放款組合成長與TFV成長之間出現分歧、差距擴大。因此,23%的放款組合成長搭配穩定的定價、金融科技收益率(fintech yield)年增6%,轉化為收入年增25%以及調整後EBITDA年增12%。而且如同我們過去幾年一直提到的,EBITDA成長受到較高資金成本的影響;在哈薩克斯坦去年升息的背景下,資金成本年增約220個基點,並持續壓抑成長。若利率開始下行,且希望我們現在已到利率見頂的階段,這將對明年的成長、明年的獲利成長非常有幫助。

  • I'll also just talk a little bit on the risk metrics because I've had a lot of questions on this over the last couple of months. If you want to look at sort of understand risk in the portfolio and the dynamic, how it's changing. First and second payment default, number one, and delinquency rates are some of the best sort of real-time metrics that we can look at. So first and second payment default, people who've taken a loan and immediately missed a payment, you can see that number one, the levels of default are low, 0.9% and 0.4%. That's extremely low. And number two, if you look at the trend going back to the beginning of 2023, it's broadly stable. There can be some variation at different periods, particularly due to seasonality, but overall, it's a pretty flat chart, pretty flat line. And similarly on delinquency rates, so looking across the portfolio, people who've just missed a payment, a good indication, a good lead indicator for credit quality, again, exactly the same sort of conclusion 2.2%, a very low delinquency rate. And again, the trend broadly stable over the last couple of years. So whilst a lot of people are focused on peers and then NPL metrics, it's also important when you look at peers to actually look at their sort of real-time risk metrics to get a true understanding of the health of the portfolio.

    我也想稍微談一下風險指標,因為過去幾個月我收到很多相關問題。如果你想理解放款組合的風險以及其變化動態,第一與第二期還款違約(first and second payment default)以及逾期率(delinquency rates)是我們可以觀察的一些最佳即時指標。所謂第一與第二期還款違約,是指借款人拿到貸款後立刻漏繳一期的情況。你可以看到,第一,違約水準很低,分別為0.9%與0.4%,這非常低。第二,如果你看自2023年初以來的趨勢,整體大致穩定。不同期間可能會有一些波動,特別是受季節性影響,但整體而言圖表相當平坦、線條相當平。逾期率也是同樣結論:觀察整體組合中剛漏繳一期的人,這是信用品質的良好指標、良好的領先指標,同樣得到相同結論:2.2%,非常低的逾期率,而且過去幾年趨勢大致穩定。因此,雖然很多人關注同業以及NPL指標,但在看同業時,也很重要的是要看他們的即時風險指標,才能真正理解放款組合的健康狀況。

  • On the back of those comments, cost of risk, again, broadly flat year on year, up 10 bps to 0.7% versus 0.6%. And on the NPL ratio moving up, again, the same comments that I've made previously as the portfolio is shifting towards lower risk merchant finance and car loan, the car loan being secured. What that means is that the probability of collection on NPLs is improving. So we keep more NPLs on the balance sheet. This ratio is effectively just the time driven by the timing of write-off rather than the quality of the portfolio.

    基於上述評論,風險成本(cost of risk)同樣年對年大致持平,上升10個基點至0.7%,去年為0.6%。至於NPL比率上升,我再次重申我先前的看法:隨著放款組合轉向風險較低的商戶融資與汽車貸款(汽車貸款為有擔保),這意味著對NPL的回收機率正在改善。因此我們在資產負債表上保留更多NPL。這個比率本質上更多是由核銷(write-off)時點所驅動,而非放款組合品質的變化。

  • As we keep more loans on the balance sheet, because the probability of collection is improving with a higher probability, lower NPL coverage, particularly for the car loan, which is a secured product. So effectively, this coverage ratio is just a function, the change in the coverage ratio is just a function of the change in mix of the load portfolio in favor of lower risk products that require lower levels of coverage. And there's mixed changes that will determine how the NPL ratio, coverage ratio changes over time. It's not a change. In the underlying coverage of a specific product necessarily.

    由於回收機率提高,我們在資產負債表上保留更多貸款,因此NPL覆蓋率(coverage)較低,特別是對於汽車貸款這種有擔保產品。換言之,這個覆蓋率的變化,本質上只是放款組合結構變化的函數:組合更偏向需要較低覆蓋水準的低風險產品。這些組合變化將決定NPL比率、覆蓋率隨時間如何變動。這不一定代表某一特定產品的底層覆蓋水準發生變化。

  • So here are the reported consolidated numbers, revenue up 31% year on year, EBITDA up 9% year on year, and net income flat down 1% year on year. So just to put a bit more color around the net income trend, there's two things that are really driving it, one, higher interest expense, so I mentioned. Funding costs in Kazakhstan have gone up 220 bps year on year. So, it's funding costs actually in both Kazakhstan and Turkey, number one. And number two, COGS, what does that mean? That is just driven by the inclusion of Hepsi Barada, which has this wonky business that comes with COGS for three months versus two months previously. Thereafter, if you look at the other cost lines, yes, we're making investments into Hepsi Barada. But if you look at the weight of the extent to which tech and product spend or sales and marketing spend is weighing on profitability, it's actually relatively minor, under control where we'd expect it to be.

    接下來是已揭露的合併數字:收入年增31%,EBITDA年增9%,淨利年減1%(大致持平)。為了讓淨利趨勢更有脈絡,主要有兩個驅動因素:第一,利息費用較高,如我提到的,哈薩克斯坦的資金成本年增220個基點。因此,資金成本在哈薩克斯坦與土耳其都上升,這是第一點。第二,COGS,這代表什麼?這只是由於納入Hepsi Barada所致;該業務有一個較特殊的模式,會帶來COGS,本期為三個月,相較於先前為兩個月。除此之外,如果你看其他成本線,是的,我們正在對Hepsi Barada進行投資。但如果你看技術與產品支出或銷售與行銷支出對獲利的拖累程度,其實相對不大,且在我們預期的可控範圍內。

  • On the guidance. GMV, around 20% for the full year, on track, unchanged. Same comment for TPV, 15%, on track, unchanged. And on the TFV, the around 5%, whilst trending below that, currently, to some extent, it's a mute point. The key is to drive faster revenue growth rather than necessarily to drive 5% TFV growth. Overall, that's trending to around 5%. We're on track for around 5% EBITDA growth for the year, clearly above that in the first quarter, therefore implying slower growth in subsequent quarters, but pretty much exactly where we want to be at this point in time. So on that note, let's open the call up to Q&A, please, Elliot.

    關於指引:全年GMV約20%,進度符合預期,未變。TPV同樣15%,進度符合預期,未變。至於TFV約5%,雖然目前趨勢低於該水準,但在某種程度上這不是重點。關鍵是推動更快的收入成長,而不一定是要達成TFV成長5%。整體而言,趨勢仍接近約5%。我們全年EBITDA成長約5%的目標也在軌道上;第一季明顯高於此水準,因此意味著後續季度成長會較慢,但在此時點基本上正是我們希望達到的位置。那麼,接下來請開放Q&A,Elliot。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

    (接線員指示)。

  • First question comes from Gabor Kemeny. Please state your company name and proceed with your question.

    第一個問題來自Gabor Kemeny。請說明您的公司名稱並提出您的問題。

  • Gabor Kemeny - Analyst

    Gabor Kemeny - Analyst

  • Hi there. This is Gabor coming from Autonomous Research. I have a few questions. First one will be on Turkey, where your losses narrowed significantly in Q1.

    你好,我是來自Autonomous Research的Gabor。我有幾個問題。第一個是關於土耳其,你們在第一季的虧損顯著收窄。

  • You are guiding us towards breakeven EBITDA going forward. Can you give us a sense of what sort of losses shall we assume? Over 2026 in Turkey.

    你們指引未來將走向EBITDA損益兩平。你們能否讓我們了解一下,對於2026年土耳其的虧損,我們應該假設大概會是多少?

  • Second one will be on the marketplace take rate, which showed a very decent increase in the first quarter. Can you give us a flavor, how much seasonality did you notice there in the first quarter and what shall we model here going forward? Some guidance would be helpful. And then finally, you made a point that Kazakh interest rates falling might impact your NII next year. Can you give us some sensitivities to your funding costs and your NIM? To fall in Kazakh rates, and can you comment on what you actually expect, how you actually expect Kazakh rates to develop from here?

    第二個問題是關於市集(marketplace)抽成率(take rate),第一季顯示相當不錯的提升。能否請您分享一下,第一季您觀察到多少季節性影響?以及往後我們應該如何建模?若能提供一些指引會很有幫助。最後,您提到哈薩克利率下行可能會影響您明年的淨利息收入(NII)。能否就資金成本與淨利差(NIM)對哈薩克利率下行的敏感度提供一些數據?並請評論一下您實際預期哈薩克利率接下來會如何發展?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Gabor, thanks for the questions. Maybe I'll start and then Mikhail may add some additional comments. So, I'll do it in reverse order. On the last one, on interest rate cuts, we don't assume any interest rate cuts in the guidance this year.

    好的,Gabor,謝謝你的問題。我先回答,之後Mikhail可能會補充一些評論。我就倒著回答。關於最後一題、也就是降息,我們在今年的指引中並未假設會有任何降息。

  • I think all you can do, or we can do and all you can do is just look at trends in inflation data and you can see that inflation is peaked in Kazakhstan in September and has started to fall at quite a decent rate over the last couple of months. So that's an encouraging lead indicator. In terms of sensitivity, I would advise just to look at the full year results presentation from last year, because there you see. The impact we pulled out, the impact of last year's interest rate increases on the net income in Kazakhstan. So I think broadly, if I remember correctly, if you look in 2025 in Kazakhstan, interest rates moving or our cost of funding moving up by somewhere between 100bps to 150 bps knocked around sort of 4% of the net income growth. In Kazakhstan, but that was all sort of set out last year, so that would be a decent proxy for you to take.

    我想你能做的、或我們能做的,其實就是看通膨數據的趨勢;你可以看到哈薩克的通膨在9月見頂,過去幾個月已開始以相當不錯的速度下滑。這是一個令人鼓舞的領先指標。就敏感度而言,我建議你參考我們去年的全年業績簡報,因為那裡有列出我們拆解出來的影響,也就是去年升息對哈薩克淨利的影響。我大致記得,如果看2025年在哈薩克,利率變動或我們的資金成本上升約100到150個基點(bps),大概會讓淨利成長少掉約4%。不過這些去年都已經說明過了,所以你可以把它當作一個不錯的參考代理。

  • On the marketplace take rate, I wouldn't say it's sort of anything to do with seasonality. It's a function of advertising and delivery, and there's been a trend over many years of growing value-added services, which has been additive. To take rate. And I would just look at, again, the sort of the increase that you've seen last year on year, and use that as a proxy for what you might expect to see this year. On Turkey, we guide EBITDA breakeven, at least EBITDA breakeven. We've also talked about free cash flow positive as the guardrails we're putting around this business.

    至於市集抽成率(take rate),我不會說這跟季節性有關。它主要取決於廣告與配送,而且多年來加值服務持續成長的趨勢,一直在推升抽成率。我會建議你同樣去看去年同比的增幅,並把它當作你今年可能看到的情況之參考。至於土耳其,我們給的指引是EBITDA至少損益兩平(breakeven)。我們也談過自由現金流轉正(free cash flow positive)是我們為這個業務設定的護欄(guardrails)。

  • I wouldn't specifically comment on net income. And I'd also just comment that the main focus is really driving engagement, making the investments to drive engagement on the platform, which you'll see first of all through the orders, and that's the best sort of lead indicator for the progress that we're making.

    我不會特別評論淨利。另外我也想補充,主要重點其實是推動互動(engagement),並進行投資以提升平台互動;你會先從訂單量看到這一點,而這是我們進展的最佳領先指標。

  • Gabor Kemeny - Analyst

    Gabor Kemeny - Analyst

  • It's very clear.

    非常清楚。

  • Thank you, David.

    謝謝你,David。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Gabor.

    謝謝,Gabor。

  • Next question, please.

    下一個問題,請。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Maxim Makarov. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

    接下來是Maxim Makarov。您的線路已開通,請提問。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Hi Max.

    嗨,Max。

  • Maxim Makarov - Analyst

    Maxim Makarov - Analyst

  • Thank you for the presentation.

    謝謝你們的簡報。

  • I appreciate your comments regarding the first call being more focused on financials, but I have to ask about the Tencent recently acquired in minority stake. So how should we think about any potential strategic synergies going forward from that and whether it changes in any way your positioning of the super app in Kazakhstan and Turkey? That's the first question.

    我理解你提到這次電話會更聚焦在財務面,但我還是得問一下騰訊(Tencent)近期取得少數股權的事情。往後我們應該如何看待可能的策略協同效應?以及這是否會以任何方式改變你們在哈薩克與土耳其對超級App(super app)的定位?這是第一個問題。

  • The second one is about the marketplace growth in Kazakhstan specifically and updates. On the smartphone situation, has it normalized and whether you see any impact from the current situation in the Middle East on the electronic supply.

    第二個問題是關於哈薩克市集(marketplace)成長的具體情況與智慧型手機供應的最新狀況:是否已經恢復正常?以及你們是否看到目前中東局勢對電子產品供應有任何影響?

  • And the third one, final one is on the guidance and we saw EBITDA growth trending above the full-year guidance, it's 9%, but your guidance hasn't changed. So what kind of factors. Do you take into account when kind of maintaining the guidance? Should we expect some heavier investments in Turkey or any other reasons?

    第三個、也是最後一個問題是關於指引:我們看到EBITDA成長趨勢高於全年指引(9%),但你們的指引沒有改變。你們在維持指引時會考量哪些因素?我們是否應該預期在土耳其會有更重的投資,或是有其他原因?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks for your questions, Max.

    好的。謝謝你的問題,Max。

  • I'll take the questions on sort of marketplace growth and guidance and then maybe Mikhail will make a comment on both the Tencent and his own in investments. So.

    我先回答市集成長與指引相關的問題,然後也許Mikhail會就騰訊以及他提到的投資補充一些看法。

  • Yeah, just keep in mind it's the first quarter. The first quarter is exactly where it's the smallest quarter of the year. Q4 is the most important quarter of the year. It's pretty much where we would expect it to be. And you will see in subsequent quarters the timing of investment having more of an impact on EBITDA and the bottom line. So I wouldn't. Get carried away. That's the first thing. On the marketplace growth, I'd say no material. There may have been some disruption, but I'd say no material disruption as a result of what's going on in the Middle Eastern or supply chain disruption. And broadly speaking, and there's a very general comment, the current macro situation is probably, or the current geopolitical situation is probably more positive than negative for Kazakhstan.

    是的,先記住這才第一季。第一季通常是一年中最小的一季;第四季才是一年中最重要的一季。目前的表現大致符合我們的預期。你會在接下來幾季看到投資時點對EBITDA與損益的影響更明顯。所以我不會太過解讀。這是第一點。至於市集成長,我會說沒有重大影響。可能有一些干擾,但就中東局勢或供應鏈干擾而言,我會說沒有實質性的中斷。整體來看(這是很概括的評論),目前的總體環境或地緣政治情勢,對哈薩克可能是利多大於利空。

  • Macro, but a lot depends on how things evolve over time. So that's on your second and third question on Tencent. Michal, is there anything you'd like to add?

    不過很多仍取決於事情隨時間如何演變。以上是你第二與第三個問題。至於騰訊,Michal,你有什麼想補充的嗎?

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • I mean, it's exciting to have such a shareholder and the team that was working on the transaction in general. We have been quite admirers of Tencent. Believing that Tencent is the pioneer of the super app business model. So, like, I don't really have anything specific to comment, but in general, when you look at Kaspi is the type of company which is in the team, which is really hungry for knowledge and constant development and improving and developing some of the.

    我的意思是,能有這樣的股東很令人振奮,整體而言參與這筆交易的團隊也是。我們一直很欣賞騰訊,並相信騰訊是超級App商業模式的先驅。所以我沒有什麼特別具體可以評論的,但整體來說,當你看Kaspi這家公司,你會看到我們的團隊非常渴望學習、持續發展、持續改善並開發一些……

  • Really incredible innovative services, which, yeah, which we always have a very strong pipeline of. So I guess, having this relationship with Tencent and some other companies actually benefiting really us, but also we have a lot to share. So there is nothing really specific at the moment, which I would like to discuss on this call. But again, you should always keep in mind that you are working with the company.

    非常令人驚豔的創新服務;是的,我們一直都有非常強的產品管線。所以我想,與騰訊以及其他一些公司的這種關係,確實能讓我們受益;同時我們也有很多可以分享的。目前沒有什麼特別具體、我想在這通電話上討論的事情。但再次提醒,你們是在與一家公司合作……

  • And with the management team, which is as hungry and as ever, is constantly learning and constantly thinking, what is the next breakthrough product, which is going to change consumer revolutionize actually consumer experience of the merchant experience. So having such a shareholder is a good thing for us.

    以及與一個管理團隊合作;我們一如既往地渴望學習,持續學習、持續思考下一個突破性產品是什麼,能夠改變、甚至真正革新消費者體驗與商戶體驗。因此,有這樣的股東對我們來說是件好事。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Maxim Makarov - Analyst

    Maxim Makarov - Analyst

  • Great.

    很好。

  • Thank you so much.

    非常謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Jamies\ Friedman. Please state your company name and proceed with your question.

    接下來是Jamies\ Friedman。請說明您的公司名稱並提出問題。

  • Jamie Friedman - Analyst

    Jamie Friedman - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening. Good morning. It's Jamie at Susquehanna.

    嗨,晚安/早安。我是Susquehanna的Jamie。

  • So when you originally bought Hepsiburada, your observations were that the service quality was below what you are accustomed to delivering and that you needed to invest in Hepsi, especially in terms of delivery. I was wondering where you think you are in that journey now.

    你們最初收購Hepsiburada時,你們的觀察是其服務品質低於你們習慣提供的水準,且需要在Hepsi上加大投資,特別是在配送方面。我想請問你們認為目前在這段旅程中走到哪一步了?

  • Is, and the metrics that you use, what do you focus on? How have you improved the service and what are your future objectives with it?

    你們使用哪些衡量指標、重點關注什麼?你們如何改善服務?以及未來的目標是什麼?

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • So I guess I will take this call, David. Yeah, so in terms of the strategy in our understanding of the word strategy is this is not the thing which you sort of turn on or off from one call to another.

    我想這題我來回答,David。是的,就策略而言——我們對「策略」的理解是:這不是那種你可以在不同電話會議之間隨意開或關的事情。

  • So we did have a substantial discussion about some of the metrics which we would like to bring our Turkey business towards, and those metrics are really. The Kaspi's metrics, and they're related to the frequency of the consumer purchases, speed of delivery, and accessibility of the financial options on the marketplace, which again, drive the GMV per consumer. So those metrics have been improving quite nicely during last year, and we see pretty much the same trend again. We retain the game, exactly the same focus. So everything we do, I need to make one sort of this comment that it's where we would like that we deliver the same quality of the experience in Turkey, like we do in our home market. So that's our goal. It does mean that the experience currently is.

    因此,我們確實就一些希望把土耳其業務帶向的指標做了深入討論,而這些指標其實就是Kaspi的指標,包含消費者購買頻率、配送速度,以及市集上金融選項的可得性;而這些又會推動每位消費者的GMV。這些指標在去年已改善得相當不錯,我們也看到大致相同的趨勢延續。我們維持完全相同的方向與聚焦。也就是說,我需要補充一點:我們希望在土耳其提供與本土市場同等品質的體驗,這是我們的目標。這也意味著目前的體驗……

  • Is, I mean, is as good as other players on the market. And again, all the investments we're doing, they are around technology, they are around organizing the data so that it's readily available in the structure for real-time decision making and, some of the models which we're currently building to enhance consumer and merchant experience, and then to deliver. As quickly as possible and deliver on the weekends or deliver on holidays, but actually deliver the items when consumers want them. So if you think from the number perspective, this is where all the investments are going and the increase that you saw in the investments were actually around those priorities. So we're quite pleased and that's what is reflected in the growth as well.

    也就是說,我的意思是,目前的體驗已經和市場上其他玩家一樣好。同樣地,我們所做的所有投資,主要圍繞在技術、資料的整理與組織(讓資料能以結構化方式即時可用、支援即時決策),以及我們正在建立的一些模型,用以提升消費者與商戶體驗;並且盡可能快速地配送、在週末配送、在假日配送,實際上是在消費者想要的時間把商品送到。若從數字角度來看,所有投資都投入在這些優先事項上;你看到投資增加,實際上也正是圍繞這些重點。因此我們相當滿意,而這也反映在成長上。

  • And the reason why we're pleased is that these decisions which we're making and the new initiatives which we're sort of rolling out and completing on the, again, delivery, payment options, the advertising products, personalization, risk management, marketing, all those are giving the results which you see in the growth. And that's what keeps us really excited for such a large market. And just to go back again. To our strategic strategy is that the e-commerce in Kazakhstan, when we started our business, we started from sort of financial, fintech, payments, and then e-commerce. And in Turkey, we're working backwards because we actually do have very strong consumer base. We do have the strong base of the merchants, and we do have a. The online interaction and traffic and the engagement from both.

    而我們之所以感到高興,是因為我們正在做出的這些決策,以及我們正在推出並完成的新舉措——再次強調,包含履約、付款選項、廣告產品、個人化、風險管理、行銷等——都正在帶來你在成長中所看到的成果。這也是讓我們對這麼大的市場感到非常興奮的原因。再回到我們的策略:在哈薩克,我們開始做電商時,是從金融、金融科技、支付切入,然後才是電商。而在土耳其,我們是反向在做,因為我們其實已經擁有非常強的消費者基礎,也有很強的商家基礎,同時也有來自雙方的線上互動、流量與參與度。

  • So now what we need to do is we need really need to roll out some of the services and technology which we have in house and that what you actually see in some of the numbers for the 1 year.

    所以現在我們需要做的,就是把我們內部自有的一些服務與技術真正推廣落地,而你其實也能在這一年期的一些數字中看到。

  • Jamie Friedman - Analyst

    Jamie Friedman - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And when you when you think about so the engagement is increasing significantly. When you think about where that could potentially go, how do you see that traveling? I think the statistics are that the average U.S. Consumer transacts e-commerce 40 times a year. I think the average Brazilian is about 10 times a year.

    好的,很棒。當你思考到參與度正在顯著提升時,若看它未來可能走到哪裡,你怎麼看它的演進?我想統計數據是,美國平均消費者一年進行電商交易 40 次;我想巴西平均大約是一年 10 次。

  • So what do you think that that will travel to over long-term in Turkey, Mikhail?

    那你認為長期來看,在土耳其會走向什麼水準,Mikhail?

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Yeah, well, I mean, Jamie, in our case, our sort of benchmark is really.

    是的,我的意思是,Jamie,就我們的情況而言,我們的基準其實是……

  • What we have already achieved in our home market. And if you think in terms of our home market, if I'm not mistaken, the numbers which we've discussed in the year end, was it about 27 purchases per consumer? And I think in our home market in Kazakhstan, and there are about 7 purchases per consumer in Turkey.

    我們在本土市場已經達成的成果。如果以本土市場來看,如果我沒記錯,我們在年末討論過的數字是每位消費者大約 27 次購買?而我想在我們的本土市場哈薩克是每位消費者約 27 次購買;在土耳其則是每位消費者約 7 次購買。

  • So that just gives you an understanding what we're really focused on. And again, we're not inventing anything. We're basically taking our playbook, and we're focused on execution and making sure that technology and data support it. So that's where our primarily focus on. And of course, this sort of engagement, you are required to make some investments in order to explain your user experience, in order to market it. And that's why this year is more. Of the, I would call it an investment year. We do have a rules, which we would like to still remain a very profitable dividend paying company. We do have a quadrails for the decisions we make, but that's our focus. So we want to increase the consumer engagement. We want to have the right assortment for that engagement. We want to have the right merchant base and delivery and the payment methods which support that. But the difference, again, as I mentioned, around 7 in Turkey and around 27 in Kazakhstan and in Kazakhstan growing really fast. So, it will be the bigger this year.

    所以這就讓你理解我們真正聚焦的方向。再次強調,我們不是在發明什麼新東西;我們基本上是在複製我們的作戰手冊,聚焦於執行,並確保技術與數據能夠支撐它。這就是我們主要的重點。當然,這種參與度的提升,你需要做一些投資,去改善使用者體驗、去做行銷。這也是為什麼今年更像——我會稱之為——投資年。我們有一些規則,我們仍希望維持成為一家非常獲利、能支付股利的公司。我們對所做決策也有一些護欄,但我們的重點就是:我們要提升消費者參與度;我們要有能支撐該參與度的正確商品組合;我們要有正確的商家基礎、配送與付款方式來支援。但差異如我提到的,土耳其大約 7 次、哈薩克大約 27 次,而哈薩克成長非常快。所以,今年會更……

  • So basically, that would be our sort of goal for Tokyo.

    所以基本上,那會是我們對土耳其的目標。

  • Jamie Friedman - Analyst

    Jamie Friedman - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect.

    好的,完美。

  • Thank you. I'll drop back in the queue.

    謝謝。我會回到隊列後面。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, Jamie.

    謝謝你,Jamie。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now hand over to Hanzade Kilickiran. Please state your company name and proceed to your question.

    我們現在把時間交給 Hanzade Kilickiran。請說明您的公司名稱並提出您的問題。

  • Hanzade Kilickiran - Analyst

    Hanzade Kilickiran - Analyst

  • Mihaj, David, thank you for the presentation. I'm Hanzade Kilickiran, I'm covering Hepsiburada at JPMorgan.

    Mihaj、David,謝謝你們的簡報。我是 Hanzade Kilickiran,我在摩根大通負責追蹤 Hepsiburada。

  • If I may, I would like to ask a few questions on your strategy for Hepsi. Actually, this question has been partially answered, but you have been consuming some cash in Turkey after stepping up in marketing campaigns in the past few quarters. And this also seemed to put some pressure on the working capital outflows, I mean, particularly in this quarter, which may be, though, a seasonal shift. I wonder how long will you continue on this strategy? And is there a specific KPI target that you would like to reach before normalizing the marketing activities? That's my first question. The second one is, we have also observed some declining consumer financing activities in the first quarter in Turkey. Is this a deliberate decision like pausing on Hepsipay products before you finalize your license approval in Turkey?

    如果可以的話,我想就你們對 Hepsi 的策略問幾個問題。其實這個問題已經部分被回答了,但在過去幾個季度你們加大行銷活動後,在土耳其消耗了一些現金。這似乎也對營運資金流出造成了一些壓力,特別是在本季度——當然也可能是季節性變動。我想知道你們會在這個策略上持續多久?在你們將行銷活動正常化之前,是否有特定的 KPI 目標希望先達成?這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題是,我們也觀察到土耳其第一季的消費者融資活動有所下降。這是否是刻意的決策,例如在你們完成土耳其牌照核准之前,先暫停 Hepsipay 產品?

  • And the third one is that after the initiatives that you have taken in Turkey, like listing of the small ticket items, which you have been quite successful actually, have you achieved a more diversified GMV, GMVs per category?

    第三個問題是,在你們於土耳其採取的一些舉措之後,例如上架小額商品(你們其實做得相當成功),你們是否已經達成更為多元化的 GMV(按品類的 GMV)?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Yeah, thank you for the questions.

    好的,謝謝你的問題。

  • So, in terms of, if I got them right. But you please tell me if I missed anything. So, in terms of the consumer financing and the consumer finance side, we have our sort of way of really working both on the product side, but most importantly, risk management. It's not only about originating consumer finance, but actually it's about originating that to the right person at the right time with the right amount. Also in the way that the people are sort of repaying you basically. So originating is when you originate the wrong consumer finance, it's not an asset, it's a liability for the company in terms of the risk. So we have been really happy with the way we have rolled out the new risk management system.

    所以,就我理解的問題來回答——如果我理解正確的話;但如果我漏了什麼請告訴我。關於消費者融資、消金這一塊,我們的做法是在產品端運作,但更重要的是風險管理。這不只是發放消費者融資,而是要在正確的時間、以正確的金額,發放給正確的人;同時也要看人們基本上如何還款。因為如果你把消費者融資發放給不對的客群,它對公司而言就不是資產,而是風險層面的負債。所以我們對於新風險管理系統的推出方式感到非常滿意。

  • And as we were rolling out the risk management system, we basically slowed down the origination. If for everybody's benefit on the call, the Hepsiburada has fully owned consumer finance subsidiary. So actually, we in Turkey can originate consumer loans, but we wanted to get first the whole system, which, Kaspi has to bring it to our business in Turkey. And then, we feel now increasingly comfortable with the opportunities to do. More in the consumer finance. So that's on the consumer finance side. Again, we were not in a hurry. We didn't want to originate anything above the normal course of business, and we're putting together the risk systems and data management in order to do it at extraordinary quality, which is acceptable at our level. Like we have, cost of risk a bit over two in Kaspi, which is the world class.

    在我們推出風險管理系統的過程中,我們基本上放慢了放款發放的節奏。為了讓電話會議上的各位更清楚:Hepsiburada 擁有一家 100% 持股的消費金融子公司。所以在土耳其,我們其實可以發放消費者貸款,但我們希望先把整套系統——Kaspi 要帶到我們土耳其業務的那套——先完整導入。之後,我們現在對於在消費金融方面做更多事情的機會,感到越來越有信心。這就是消費金融這一塊。再次強調,我們不急;我們不想在正常業務範圍之上去發放任何東西;我們正在把風險系統與數據管理整合起來,以便以我們可接受的、極高的品質來做這件事。就像我們在 Kaspi 的風險成本略高於 2,這是世界級水準。

  • So that's on the consumer finance side. In terms of the diversification, well, what we have done really last year is, which gave us, as you said, the very strong results, is we are focused on the merchants and we've realized that the. That if we want to promote the merchants and give them ability to sell the low-ticket items, we actually had to improve our delivery experience but also provide the reasonable delivery fees. So that's what we have done last year. We continue doing it this year. We also roll out, our data-driven logistics platform. We're actually, completing this in the first queue, and that's something which with the help of our LLM and forecasting models, that will give us a substantial improvement in the speed of delivery and the quality. And we're quite happy with the performance and we see the low ticket items growing really fast, but also 3P growing faster than 1P. So that's on the merchant side and low tickets. In terms of the marketing, again, we're a data-driven company, so we're not really focused on just, making sort of driving the.

    以上是消費金融。至於多元化方面,我們去年真正做的事情——也如你所說帶來非常強的成果——是我們聚焦在商家端。我們意識到,如果我們想推動商家、讓他們有能力銷售低客單商品,我們其實必須改善配送體驗,同時提供合理的配送費用。這就是我們去年做的事;今年我們會持續做。我們也在推出我們以數據驅動的物流平台。我們其實正在第一季完成這件事;在我們的 LLM 與預測模型的協助下,它將在配送速度與品質上帶來顯著提升。我們對表現相當滿意,也看到低客單商品成長非常快,同時 3P 的成長也快於 1P。這就是商家端與低客單的部分。至於行銷,再次強調,我們是一家數據驅動的公司,所以我們不會只聚焦在……只是去推動……

  • The traffic in the short-term. So we're not driven by the weekly targets or whatever, we're really driven, but, putting the system in place, which enables us to be, to have a profitable growth in the future. So from that perspective, we, when we do marketing, we're not solving the short-term targets. We are actually building the engine to generate very sustainable recurring. And repetitive target traffic from our consumers. And yeah, that's what we have done last year, and that's what we will continue doing this year. And our goal is simple, that the consumers that we acquire, they continue to be engaged with us and deliver value and the profits in the future. But initially you really do need to invest in orders for consumers to experience your products and services.

    短期的流量。因此我們不是被每週目標之類的東西驅動;我們真正被驅動的是把系統建起來,讓我們未來能夠實現可獲利的成長。從這個角度來看,我們做行銷時不是在解決短期目標;我們是在打造引擎,去產生非常可持續、可重複、循環的目標流量,來自我們的消費者。是的,這就是我們去年做的事,也是我們今年會持續做的事。我們的目標很簡單:我們獲取的消費者要能持續與我們互動,並在未來帶來價值與利潤。但一開始,你確實需要投資,讓消費者能夠體驗你的產品與服務。

  • Hanzade Kilickiran - Analyst

    Hanzade Kilickiran - Analyst

  • Thank you, Mikhail. So, is it reasonable to say that your initial target is more like frequency focus?

    謝謝你,Mikhail。所以,可以合理地說,你們初期的目標更像是聚焦在頻次嗎?

  • I mean, to take up the turkey's frequency numbers close to Kaspi.

    也就是把土耳其的頻次數字提升到接近 Kaspi 的水準。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Well, our focus is engaged consumer base. An engaged consumer base comes with a frequency. So frequency is just the one indicator that consumers love your products and they come back to you and shop with you frequently. So yes, you're correct.

    嗯,我們的重點是高參與度的消費者基礎。高參與度的消費者基礎會伴隨著頻次。頻次只是其中一個指標,代表消費者喜歡你的產品,會回來並且更頻繁地在你這裡購物。所以,是的,你說得沒錯。

  • Hanzade Kilickiran - Analyst

    Hanzade Kilickiran - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you, Hamza.

    謝謝你,Hamza。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Sergey Belozerov. Please state your company name and proceed with your question.

    我們現在轉到 Sergey Belozerov。請說明您的公司名稱,並提出您的問題。

  • Sergej Belozerov - Analyst

    Sergej Belozerov - Analyst

  • Hi, this is Sergey calling from Greyhound Capital.

    嗨,我是 Sergey,從 Greyhound Capital 打來。

  • Good to see the results improvement in Turkey.

    很高興看到土耳其的業績有所改善。

  • I have two, three questions. One is on Rabobank, has there been any update or is there any reason for the delay? And then in Kazakhstan on the payment take rate, you mentioned already it has come down quite a bit. Is that the reason? What are the reasons behind that? Is that there's a shared QR code? And have we seen the worst in terms of the drop or what's the current situation and what can we expect going forward?

    我有兩、三個問題。第一個是關於 Rabobank:是否有任何更新,或延遲是否有任何原因?另外在哈薩克,關於支付抽成率(take rate),你們已經提到它下降了不少。這就是原因嗎?背後的原因是什麼?是因為有共用的 QR code 嗎?另外,就下降幅度而言,我們是否已經看到最糟的情況,或目前狀況如何,以及未來我們可以期待什麼?

  • And lastly, on Tencents, you already briefly touched on it. I would like to understand, is it purely passive investments from Tencent's or more deeper cooperation? And is there a potential that they acquire a bigger stake in your company from maybe other larger shareholders who want to sell?

    最後,關於 Tencent,你們已經簡要提到。我想了解,這是否純粹是 Tencent 的被動投資,還是有更深層的合作?另外,是否有可能他們從可能想出售的其他大股東手中,收購你們公司更大的持股?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • All right, Serge, thank you for your questions. I'll certainly start.

    好的,Serge,謝謝你的問題。我先開始回答。

  • Payments take rate, it's nothing to, I know we've spoken before about national payment system, it's nothing to do with that. Either you look at the sort of take rate decline and you look at it over the last three years, three to five years for that matter, I think you'd see that it's broadly consistent each year and it's largely been driven by Kaspi QR at 95 bps and Kaspi B2B payments, which is a lower take rate product growing in share. So, it's purely mixed mechanical and it will continue. To the extent that Kaspi QR continues to outperform other payment products, but I guess can't broadly go below 95 bps. It's kind of the floor. So that's on that.

    支付抽成率(take rate)方面,這與(我知道我們之前談過的)國家支付系統無關。你如果看抽成率的下降,並把時間拉到過去三年、甚至三到五年,我想你會看到每一年大致上都一致,主要是由 Kaspi QR(95 個基點)以及 Kaspi B2B 支付(抽成率較低的產品)占比提升所驅動。所以這純粹是產品組合的機械性影響,而且會持續下去。只要 Kaspi QR 持續優於其他支付產品,但我想整體大概不會低於 95 個基點,這算是底部。所以這部分是這樣。

  • On Rabobank, no update, nothing to report. Base case remains that we hope to close the transaction over by the summer. It's kind of out of our hands. The wheels turn slowly, but we continue to work and aim for closing at that point.

    關於 Rabobank,沒有更新,沒有可報告的內容。基本情境仍然是我們希望在夏季前完成交易。這有點不在我們掌控之中;流程推進得很慢,但我們會持續努力,並以那個時間點完成交割為目標。

  • On Tencent, I'm not sure if there's much we can add, and I wouldn't want to sort of speculate on their behalf about what they might do or might not do in the future. Maybe that, I think your question is a question for Tencent, not a question for Kaspi.

    關於 Tencent,我不確定我們還能補充什麼,而且我也不想代表他們去推測他們未來可能做或不做什麼。也許我認為你的問題應該問 Tencent,而不是問 Kaspi。

  • Sergej Belozerov - Analyst

    Sergej Belozerov - Analyst

  • Well, perhaps just if it's pure passive investment or a deeper cooperation, maybe if you could answer that would be great. Yeah.

    嗯,也許就只是想了解是純粹被動投資,還是更深層的合作;如果你能回答這點就太好了。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • All right. So, yeah, fair question. It's primarily a financial investment.

    好的。是的,這是個合理的問題。主要是財務性投資。

  • Sergej Belozerov - Analyst

    Sergej Belozerov - Analyst

  • Perfect.

    完美。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We now turn to Ronak Gadia. Please state your company name and proceed with your question.

    我們現在轉到 Ronak Gadia。請說明您的公司名稱,並提出您的問題。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • Ronak, you might be on mute.

    Ronak,你可能在靜音。

  • Ronak Gadia - Analyst

    Ronak Gadia - Analyst

  • Hey, good afternoon. I hope you can hear me now.

    嗨,午安。希望你們現在聽得到我。

  • Yes, this is Ronak from (Danros).

    是的,我是 Ronak,來自(Danros)。

  • Maybe I've looked about three questions. First one, I guess, is just a follow-up from the previous caller. So on the payment side, obviously the decline in take rate is understood and you can see that in the revenue reduction. But I was just trying to understand what other factors are driving the drop in EBITDA because you could see the EBITDA was flat on the year-on-year basis. If you could just comment on what the drivers there were.

    我大概有三個問題。第一個我想是延續上一位來電者的追問。支付端方面,顯然抽成率下降是可以理解的,你也能在營收下滑中看到。但我想了解的是,還有哪些因素在推動 EBITDA 的下滑,因為你可以看到 EBITDA 年對年是持平的。能否請你評論一下背後的驅動因素?

  • Then going to the fintech space, like you mentioned, the focus is to grow the car finance and merchant loans. Could you maybe give some guidance on what the implications of that would be in terms of, on the NIMS? What are the respective lending rates for those segments vis-a-vis.

    接著到金融科技(fintech)領域,如你們提到的,重點是成長汽車金融與商戶貸款。你們能否提供一些指引,說明這對淨利差(NIMs)的影響?這些分部相對於無擔保貸款與 BNPL 的放款利率各是多少?

  • Unsecured loans and BNPL. And then the last one, just on the recent capital that you raised, the $600 million, if you could just give some insights into how that will be deployed, will all of that be injected into Turkey or will there be some sort of split between Turkey and Kazakhstan? Thank.

    最後一個問題,關於你們最近籌集的資金 6 億美元,如果可以的話,請分享一些這筆資金將如何部署的看法:是否全部會投入土耳其,或會在土耳其與哈薩克之間做某種分配?謝謝。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • You. Yeah, thanks, Ronak. On the last question, the official line is general corporate purposes. What does that mean? There's no one specific big bang project, but across both Kazakhstan and Turkey, there's multiple initiatives, growth initiatives. And this just gives us more flexibility in how we fund those initiatives. And we're pretty pleased. We were able to raise the $600 million at the 5.9% rate that we were able to do that at. So more flexibility at a cost that makes a lot of sense for us. So that's on that side of things. I mean, on fintech take rate. I think you should look at the trend over the last 12 of FinTech pricing. You should look at the trend over the last 12 months at the gross level. It's been broadly stable and I wouldn't want to provide guidance going forward, but I wouldn't expect it to be dramatically different to that going forward. And I think there was another question that I've forgotten.

    謝謝,Ronak。關於最後一題,官方說法是用於一般公司用途(general corporate purposes)。這代表什麼?並沒有某一個特定的「大爆發」專案,而是在哈薩克與土耳其兩地都有多項計畫、成長計畫。這筆資金讓我們在為這些計畫提供資金時更有彈性。我們也很高興能以 5.9% 的利率籌到這 6 億美元。也就是說,以對我們而言非常合理的成本,換取更大的彈性。這部分就是這樣。至於金融科技的抽成率(take rate),我認為你應該看過去 12 個月 FinTech 定價在總額(gross)層面的趨勢;它大致上是穩定的。我不想對未來提供指引,但我也不預期未來會與目前有顯著不同。我想還有一個問題我忘了。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Take rate on payments. I think the, take rate on more payments is answer is exactly the same and quite simple and that. What's something which we have said on every quarter of our results is basically that 0.95% is the acquiring fee on the QR codes. And the share of QR codes is increasing. And there is about 0.5% roughly on the B2B payments, which is increasing even faster. So, it's a function of the faster growing.

    支付的抽成率(take rate),我想支付抽成率的答案完全一樣,而且很簡單。我們在每一季的業績中都說過:0.95% 是 QR code 的收單費率(acquiring fee),而 QR code 的占比正在提高。另外,B2B 支付大約是 0.5% 左右,而且成長更快。所以,這是成長更快的產品所帶來的結果。

  • Bigger numbers on the payment side. And in terms of the EBITDA margin, or, I mean, this is like, what, 50 plus percent EBITDA margin business. So, I mean, from that perspective, I mean, it's really very profitable business. It's just such a huge scale that there is no really, economies of scale at this stage. I mean, it's a big business, it's matured. We do are making some innovations in this field, like, pay by phone, for example, which has closed, to the 1 million registered users already, and growing quite nicely. But again, this is a really big business, which delivers profitability on the one hand, but also, most importantly, actually delivers.

    支付端的規模更大。至於 EBITDA 利潤率,或者說,這是一個 EBITDA 利潤率 50% 以上的業務。所以從那個角度來看,這是一個非常高獲利的業務。只是規模已經非常大,在這個階段其實沒有太多規模經濟可再釋放。這是一個大型且成熟的業務。我們確實也在這個領域做一些創新,例如「手機號碼支付」(pay by phone),目前已經有 100 萬註冊用戶,而且成長相當不錯。但同樣地,這是一個非常大的業務:一方面帶來獲利,另一方面更重要的是,實際上帶來消費者與商戶的黏著度(engagement),這是我們現在做任何事情的骨幹——不論你從電商角度思考,或從 AI 技術等角度思考,這都是未來創新的核心支柱。直接變現當然很好、也很重要,但就我看五到十年的角度,它是次要的。它真正帶給我們的是巨大的優勢:擁有極高品質的數據,使我們能訓練模型,讓決策非常精準。

  • The engagement from the consumers and merchants, which is the backbone for anything we do now, whether you think in terms of the e-commerce or if you think in terms of AI technology and things like that, that's the big bone for, future, innovation. So the direct monetization is nice, very important, but actually as far as I'm concerned from five, 10 years perspective, it's secondary. What it really gives us is gives us this huge advantage of. Having incredibly high-quality data, which enables us to train our models to be very precise in their decision-making.

    謝謝,各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thanks, guys.

    謝謝。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you.

    我們沒有其他問題了。我把時間交回給你,David,做最後的結語。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have no further questions. I'll hand back to you, David, for any final remarks.

    好的,謝謝你,Elliot。也謝謝大家今天撥冗參與。如果你們想就任何事項再追問,歡迎隨時聯繫。我們這週有幾位同事在哈薩克,期待與各位見面。非常感謝,回頭再聊。

  • David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

    David Ferguson - Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations

  • All right, so thanks, Elliot. Thanks, everyone, for your time today. Please feel free to reach out if you'd like to follow-up on anything know we've got a few guys in Kazakhstan this week, so looking forward to seeing you. So thanks a lot and speak soon.

    謝謝。再見。

  • Thank you. Bye-bye.

    謝謝。再見。

  • Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

    Mikhail Lomtadze - Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder, Director

  • Thank you. Bye-bye.

    謝謝大家。今天的網路研討會到此結束。您現在可以中斷通話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's webinar. You may now disconnect from the call.

    <content> [{"p_id": "p_00085", "en": "Thank you very much."}, {"p_id": "p_00086", "en": "Thank you, Hamza."}, {"p_id": "p_00087", "en": "We now turn to Sergey Belozerov. Please state your company name and proceed with your question."}, {"p_id": "p_00088", "en": "Hi, this is Sergey calling from Greyhound Capital."}, {"p_id": "p_00089", "en": "Good to see the results improvement in Turkey."}, {"p_id": "p_00090", "en": "I have two, three questions. One is on Rabobank, has there been any update or is there any reason for the delay? And then in Kazakhstan on the payment take rate, you mentioned already it has come down quite a bit. Is that the reason? What are the reasons behind that? Is that there's a shared QR code? And have we seen the worst in terms of the drop or what's the current situation and what can we expect going forward?"}, {"p_id": "p_00091", "en": "And lastly, on Tencents, you already briefly touched on it. I would like to understand, is it purely passive investments from Tencent's or more deeper cooperation? And is there a potential that they acquire a bigger stake in your company from maybe other larger shareholders who want to sell?"}, {"p_id": "p_00092", "en": "Thank you."}, {"p_id": "p_00093", "en": "All right, Serge, thank you for your questions. I'll certainly start."}, {"p_id": "p_00094", "en": "Payments take rate, it's nothing to, I know we've spoken before about national payment system, it's nothing to do with that. Either you look at the sort of take rate decline and you look at it over the last three years, three to five years for that matter, I think you'd see that it's broadly consistent each year and it's largely been driven by Kaspi QR at 95 bps and Kaspi B2B payments, which is a lower take rate product growing in share. So, it's purely mixed mechanical and it will continue. To the extent that Kaspi QR continues to outperform other payment products, but I guess can't broadly go below 95 bps. It's kind of the floor. So that's on that."}, {"p_id": "p_00095", "en": "On Rabobank, no update, nothing to report. Base case remains that we hope to close the transaction over by the summer. It's kind of out of our hands. The wheels turn slowly, but we continue to work and aim for closing at that point."}, {"p_id": "p_00096", "en": "On Tencent, I'm not sure if there's much we can add, and I wouldn't want to sort of speculate on their behalf about what they might do or might not do in the future. Maybe that, I think your question is a question for Tencent, not a question for Kaspi."}, {"p_id": "p_00097", "en": "Well, perhaps just if it's pure passive investment or a deeper cooperation, maybe if you could answer that would be great. Yeah."}, {"p_id": "p_00098", "en": "All right. So, yeah, fair question. It's primarily a financial investment."}, {"p_id": "p_00099", "en": "Perfect."}, {"p_id": "p_00100", "en": "Thank you very much."}, {"p_id": "p_00101", "en": "We now turn to Ronak Gadia. Please state your company name and proceed with your question."}, {"p_id": "p_00102", "en": "Ronak, you might be on mute."}, {"p_id": "p_00103", "en": "Hey, good afternoon. I hope you can hear me now."}, {"p_id": "p_00104", "en": "Yes, this is Ronak from (Danros)."}, {"p_id": "p_00105", "en": "Maybe I've looked about three questions. First one, I guess, is just a follow-up from the previous caller. So on the payment side, obviously the decline in take rate is understood and you can see that in the revenue reduction. But I was just trying to understand what other factors are driving the drop in EBITDA because you could see the EBITDA was flat on the year-on-year basis. If you could just comment on what the drivers there were."}, {"p_id": "p_00106", "en": "Then going to the fintech space, like you mentioned, the focus is to grow the car finance and merchant loans. Could you maybe give some guidance on what the implications of that would be in terms of, on the NIMS? What are the respective lending rates for those segments vis-a-vis."}, {"p_id": "p_00107", "en": "Unsecured loans and BNPL. And then the last one, just on the recent capital that you raised, the $600 million, if you could just give some insights into how that will be deployed, will all of that be injected into Turkey or will there be some sort of split between Turkey and Kazakhstan? Thank."}, {"p_id": "p_00108", "en": "You. Yeah, thanks, Ronak. On the last question, the official line is general corporate purposes. What does that mean? There's no one specific big bang project, but across both Kazakhstan and Turkey, there's multiple initiatives, growth initiatives. And this just gives us more flexibility in how we fund those initiatives. And we're pretty pleased. We were able to raise the $600 million at the 5.9% rate that we were able to do that at. So more flexibility at a cost that makes a lot of sense for us. So that's on that side of things. I mean, on fintech take rate. I think you should look at the trend over the last 12 of FinTech pricing. You should look at the trend over the last 12 months at the gross level. It's been broadly stable and I wouldn't want to provide guidance going forward, but I wouldn't expect it to be dramatically different to that going forward. And I think there was another question that I've forgotten."}, {"p_id": "p_00109", "en": "Take rate on payments. I think the, take rate on more payments is answer is exactly the same and quite simple and that. What's something which we have said on every quarter of our results is basically that 0.95% is the acquiring fee on the QR codes. And the share of QR codes is increasing. And there is about 0.5% roughly on the B2B payments, which is increasing even faster. So, it's a function of the faster growing."}, {"p_id": "p_00110", "en": "Bigger numbers on the payment side. And in terms of the EBITDA margin, or, I mean, this is like, what, 50 plus percent EBITDA margin business. So, I mean, from that perspective, I mean, it's really very profitable business. It's just such a huge scale that there is no really, economies of scale at this stage. I mean, it's a big business, it's matured. We do are making some innovations in this field, like, pay by phone, for example, which has closed, to the 1 million registered users already, and growing quite nicely. But again, this is a really big business, which delivers profitability on the one hand, but also, most importantly, actually delivers."}, {"p_id": "p_00111", "en": "The engagement from the consumers and merchants, which is the backbone for anything we do now, whether you think in terms of the e-commerce or if you think in terms of AI technology and things like that, that's the big bone for, future, innovation. So the direct monetization is nice, very important, but actually as far as I'm concerned from five, 10 years perspective, it's secondary. What it really gives us is gives us this huge advantage of. Having incredibly high-quality data, which enables us to train our models to be very precise in their decision-making."}, {"p_id": "p_00112", "en": "Thanks, guys."}, {"p_id": "p_00113", "en": "Thank you."}, {"p_id": "p_00114", "en": "We have no further questions. I'll hand back to you, David, for any final remarks."}, {"p_id": "p_00115", "en": "All right, so thanks, Elliot. Thanks, everyone, for your time today. Please feel free to reach out if you'd like to follow-up on anything know we've got a few guys in Kazakhstan this week, so looking forward to seeing you. So thanks a lot and speak soon."}, {"p_id": "p_00116", "en": "Thank you. Bye-bye."}, {"p_id": "p_00117", "en": "Thank you. Bye-bye."}, {"p_id": "p_00118", "en": "Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's webinar. You may now disconnect from the call."}] </content>