使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Coca-Cola FEMSA's first quarter 2003 results call with Hector Trevino, Chief Financial Officer. My name is Alicia and I will be your coordinator. Throughout the conference, you will be on listen-only. If you need assistance at any time during the call, then please key star zero on a touch-tone phone and a coordinator will be happy to assist you. I would like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded.
This conference call may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning Coca-Cola FEMSA's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the company. These forward-looking statements reflect management expectations that are based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties, which could materially impact the company's actual performance.
Mr. Trevino, you may now begin. Thank you.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Good morning and welcome to Coca-Cola FEMSA's conference call to discuss our first quarter 2003 results. I am pleased to inform that our operating and financial results during this quarter reflect the success of our packaging and product strategies in our Mexican and Argentine territories.
Our consolidated volume increased 6.8 percent and our consolidated operating income expanded 5.2 percent during the first quarter of 2003. Despite higher dollar denominated packaging costs both in Mexico and Argentina, triggered by higher oil prices, the company increased consolidated operating income margin by 100 basis points. Higher volumes in Mexico and Argentina led to a major absorption of fixed cost, and a reduction of selling expenses helped improve the profitability for our business.
Our Mexican operations reached a 26.2 percent operating income margin during the quarter, its highest first quarter operating income margin since the company went public in 1993. In Mexico the company achieved a strong 6.6 percent volume growth during the first quarter of 2003. This includes a 2.7 percent growth on carbonated soft drink volumes. Carbonated soft drink flavors generated more than 50 percent of the incremental sales volume during the quarter, mainly driven by Fanta, Neat Green Apple, which is a new flavor that was launched, and Ciel Munde (ph). Approximately 40 percent of the incremental sales volume were generated by Ciel, Coca-Cola's Stillwater brand, with a strong support from our new five-liter presentation, which posted three million unit cases during the quarter.
It is important to highlight that bottled water Ciel in personal presentations accounted for approximately 13 percent of the incremental volumes during the quarter, growing more than 25 percent year over year. The rest of our portfolio approach accounted for the growth balance.
The volume growth achieved by the company in the water category reflects the success of our integrated water strategy, which targets specific packaging strategies by channel. We believe that brand Ciel has been gaining market presence and capturing incremental volume growth of the bottled water industry.
During the first quarter 2003 Cola volumes decreased around 1.3 percent. However, it's important to highlight that they increased approximately to two percent during the month of March of this year. The volume growth experienced by brand Coca-Cola during March reflects the successful introduction of our 2.5 liter return presentation for brand Coca-Cola, which was present in approximately 60 percent of all the small retailers covered by Coca-Cola FEMSA in the value (ph) of Mexico. We expect to finish the rollout of this presentation in the value (ph) of Mexico by June of this year.
We anticipate a strong contribution to volume growth from brand Coca-Cola during the rest of the year. This packaging presentation is not only letting us reactivate the Cola factory (ph), giving this attractive value proposition that provides a larger size at a competing price. But it's also letting us gain market presence, strengthening the brand equity of brand Coca-Cola.
Year to date, we have increased prices approximately 3.7 percent on a nominal weighted average basis. First, we increased prices approximately 2.5 percent at the beginning of January of this year. On personal presentations for Ciel Vis (ph), flavors and colas, including diet products and sparkling water. Then in February of this year we increased the price of the five-liter presentation of bottled water Ciel from 10 pesos to 12 Mexican pesos. And, lastly, this week, as a matter of fact today, we are starting to pre-sell with a new increasing prices for the eight ounce one-way glass presentation for brand Coca-Cola from 3.50 to four Mexican pesos and the 600 or the 20 ounce presentation for Ciel Vis (ph) in colas and flavors that we are moving from 5.50 to six pesos. The eight-ounce and 600 presentations represent approximately 1.6 percent and 24 percent of the total volumes, respectively.
Our information technology systems and our tailored channel marketing tactics let us implement the most effective pricing, packaging and product strategies to deploy our resources more efficiently and effectively. Despite an increasing competitive environment, the company has been able to increase volumes, managing to its advantage the pricing and packaging configuration by distribution channel, not only increasing the profitability of its business but reinforcing the market position of its brands.
The strategies that we're implementing today will help us protect the profitability of our business in the long-term, increase per cap, expanding the size of the market for the carbonated soft drink industry, and increase the profitability of our integrated water strategy.
Now, moving to Argentina, our return on presentations continue to increase volumes in Buenos Aires. The majority of the volume growth for the quarter came from our core brands and returnable presentations. Brand Coca-Cola was the main volume growth contributor for the quarter, representing 61 percent of total product mix during the first quarter of 2003, pesos 54 percent during the same period last year. Brand Coca-Cola alone increased more than 21 percent in the first quarter of 2003 compared with the same period of last year.
The 1.25 liter return (ph) glass presentation reached more than 20 percent of our total sales volume in the first quarter of 2003 and it's being sold today at 1.1 Argentine pesos. At the end of February we also initiated the rollout of a new two-liter returnable PT (ph) presentation for brand Coca-Cola at 199 Argentine pesos. These prices are very compelling when compared with our 1.5-liter and 2.25 quarter PT (ph) non-returnable presentations, which are being sold at two pesos and 2.40 Argentine pesos, respectively.
Our internal packaging strategies are not only providing us with more flexibility to implement price increase, but also to diversify our client space. As of March of 2003, supermarkets represented less than 18 percent of the total sales volume from being more than 25 percent one year ago. We believe that these presentations will strengthen the equity value of our core brands, increase per capita consumption of Ciel Vis (ph) and increase the profitability of our business in Argentina.
As probably you are aware by now, last Monday on April 28th the shareholders of Panamco approved the acquisition of Panamco by Coca-Cola FEMSA. We expect the transaction to close by May 6th. And a result -- as a result, Panamco to be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coca-Cola FEMSA. We feel very excited about the growth opportunities and value creation alternative that our company will be able to generate with this acquisition.
As part of this transaction, on April 25th of this year our company refunded part of the financing needed to pay for the acquisition of Panamco, raising 4.25 billion Mexico pesos through three bond offerings in the Mexican debt capital markets, which are equal to approximately $400 million. These bond offerings were issued at very attractive rates and are considered one of the most successful debt offerings made in Mexican history. You will be able to find the details of our debt offering in our first quarter 2003 press release.
These are very exciting times for our company. In no more than a week we expect to become the second largest Coca-Cola bottler in the world in terms of volumes and revenues and one of the most profitable in terms of operating margin compared with the rest of our worldwide public peers. Working together with our colleagues from Panamco, we believe that there is a lot of room to improve further profitability of our new company. We care (ph) significantly the support of our shareholders during this period. We have been able to continue implementing our business plans successfully in our 15 territories and, at the same time, we have been able to focus important resources to explore and evaluate the business opportunities and management talent at Panamco in order to achieve an immediate and small (ph) integration right after closing the deal. When this transaction is finalized, we expect to share with the market our new organizational structure and the final configuration of our total debt.
Thank you for your attention. Now, I would like to open up the call for any questions that you might have.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please key star one on your touch-tone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to withdraw your question, please press star two. One moment while we build our first question.
Our first question comes from Jose Yordan (ph) with UBS Warburg. Please go ahead, sir.
Jose Yordan
Hi. Good morning, Hector. My question was first about a clarification. What percentage of the mix did you say the presentations that are being raised today, the eight-ounce and the 600 milliliter bottles? I didn't quite catch that. And I was wondering whether those price increases that you're implementing today are included in the 3.7 percent nominal weighted average that you talked about year to date.
And then the second part of my question is what's your outlook for further price increases throughout the rest of the year and how do you expect the continued rollout of the 2.5 liter returnable to affect your average pricing when it's all said and done full year 2003 versus full year 2002, of course excluding any affect at Panamco?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. Good morning, Jose.
Jose Yordan
Good morning.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Let me go first. The eight-ounce represents 1.6 percent of our mix, and the 600-milliliter represents 24 percent of our mix. That price increase that we're passing -- that is actually effective on what we're going to collect on May 2nd, because, as I explained, we are selling to date. Tomorrow is a holiday in Mexico, so that -- the weighted average price increase of that will be between two and three percent. And it's not included in the 3.7 that I mentioned because what I was trying to say is that 3.7 is what we already got in our year to date up to, let's say, yesterday before this price increase.
Jose Yordan
OK.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Now, with respect to the rollout of 2.5, we basically have covered -- and I think it's important that we mention we are a little bit behind schedule on the rollout of that because we did have some problems with the supply of bottles on the 2.5 liter size. We had some quality problems with our supplier that basically forced us to go slower in the rollout process at the very beginning of the rollout process. So, rather than starting in January -- at the very beginning of January, we delayed our rollout process. And the pace of that also has been with some kind of slowdown process because of that.
So, we do expect to finish the rollout of this by June. The impact of that, as you are aware, we are selling that presentation at 12 pesos. Pepsi Cola on those markets where we have the 2.5-liter returnable presentation, has lowered the price of the two liter one way presentation to 10 pesos. So, basically they are maintaining a parity on a brand basis versus our returnable presentation. And the general effect of when we finish this rollout is that when you look on the total price equation for the company, the 2.5 is pulling down a little bit the prices for the company. As you're -- as we are trying to describe here, we are trying to find other opportunities to increase prices in other presentations so that the general price effect or the general reduction of price that a normal rollout of 2.5 will cost is diminished because of that. But the main effect of this launching, as we have said, is that the cost structure of 2.5 returnable is pretty much the same of what we have in the two liter returnable presentation, because again we are staying at the same price. Concentrate cost is exactly the same. The cap, the labor there is the same. So, at the end of the day we have a little bit more water, which is not significant in the equation, and the only thing that is important is the additional liter (ph) that we have on this formula. So, at the end of the day on every bottle that we sell on 2.5 we are making pretty much the same pesos -- absolute peso numbers on a per bottle basis versus two liters.
So, to summarize, we do believe that when we finalize the launching of the 2.5 that launching will reduce a little bit our average price equation for the whole company. We are expecting that the volume boost that we are getting for this presentation will more than compensate this small price reduction. And we are trying to find alternatives to increase prices in other presentations as we continue with our dynamic pricing architecture that we always have been maintaining over the last years.
Going forward, obviously we believe there is an opportunity to increase the price of that presentation. However, given the market dynamics that we see right now, it's something that we will explore starting the third quarter. We are not expecting any increase on that presentation on the second quarter.
Jose Yordan
So, in the end, when you look at your expected average price per unit case for 2003, where do you expect it to -- where do you think it will fall versus 2002 as far as a real increase or decline with all the effects together?
Hector Trevino - CFO
When we have all these consideration in place, we do expect that prices in real terms versus last year will be slightly below what they were last year. So, a small reduction in real prices ...
Jose Yordan
OK, thank you.
Hector Trevino - CFO
... for the full year.
Jose Yordan
Thanks.
Operator
The next question comes from Marco Vera with Deutsche IXE. Please go ahead, sir.
Marco Vera
Hi, Hector. Good morning. Hector, since you guys are behind schedule on the rollout, in what percentage have you achieved the level of two for 2.5-liter replacement that you're targeting so far?
Hector Trevino - CFO
What you're -- Marco, do I understand your question? Are you referring to how far are we ahead in terms of this rollout process?
Marco Vera
Yes. You're going to be due to complete it 100 percent in June you said?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes, yes. Right now, our estimate is that we are around 60 to 70 percent of the full process that we are expecting. So, the remaining portion is around, let's say, 30 to 35 percent of what we need to achieve.
Marco Vera
OK. And clearly the 2.5 switch bolsters the unit case volume figure. But do you actually feel that there are more 2.5 bottles moving than two liters before?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. And actually it's kind of a tricky question in the sense that when you look at the number of bottles that you have in two-liter area (ph) versus 2.5, in the area where we have launched the number of bottles have increased around three percent. The tricky part is that you also have to take into consideration the effect on some of the other products -- the other presentations that you have. And when we consider all the effects here, we believe that this is a positive movement for our volume growth strategy. But when you go out and check the initial strategy that was targeting the lunch and dinner occasion at home and the ideal switching one bottle of two liter by one bottle of 2.5, we are actually a little bit ahead of that, because, as I said, in physical cases the increase, when we compare with two liter, have been around three percent.
Marco Vera
OK. So, you feel net-net even with -- if there's been some kind of allocation that now you feel you're moving more bottles. I guess that's a little bit surprising because the move is basically -- or one way to prevent the Cola Real from penetrating into your area, and it was only negligibly present. So, do you feel that the evidence is showing that maybe it was a little bit more present than not maybe in channels that you were monitoring closely and you're getting back consumers that you didn't realize you had lost?
Hector Trevino - CFO
We believe, Marco, that what has happened is that because of our introduction to the 2.5 returnable the fact that, as I mentioned, Pepsi has lowered the price on their two liter presentational brand Pepsi Cola and the fact that you have new competitors coming into the market, that has somehow reactivated the cola segment of the industry. As far as Cola Real is present, they went through unit (ph) strike for a few days, so they have been going through some difficulties. They are present now in supermarkets, which they were not before in that specific channel that you know is not that large in Mexico City. As we have mentioned, it's around six, seven percent of our volume. They are achieving good presence. But when you compare Coca-Cola 2.5 at 12 pesos, Pepsi Cola two liters one way at 10 pesos, the story of Cola Real is not that compelling in a way. And what we have been seeing in supermarkets is that they have been lowering prices even below the eight price -- the eight peso price point. We have seen some introductions at 6.5 pesos in some of the supermarkets. So, that clearly indicates that the situation is not necessarily very sustainable at those levels. I mean, they will clearly to start moving their price a little bit more.
Because of those movements, their presence has been, I guess, sustained here in the value of Mexico. Again, more important in supermarkets than what is in the traditional sales (ph). When you look at the traditional stores, the penetration is, as we said, very, very small.
Marco Vera
Thanks, Hector.
Operator
The next question comes from Carlos Laboy with Bear Stearns. Please go ahead, sir.
Carlos Laboy
Yes. Good morning. Hector, I was hoping you could shed some light for us on where you see your mix of returnable versus one way stabilizing in Argentina, and also with respect to some market share trends in Mexico City, southeastern Argentina.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Good morning, Carlos. In Argentina returnables, as we said, the 1.25 have surpassed the 20 percent of our mixed mark. We are -- if I remember correctly, and we can -- Jose (ph) can verify those -- that will be later. We are probably around 23 percent as of the end of March on returnables.
We just introduced, as we mentioned, the two liter returnable PT (ph). That still accounts for a very small fraction of -- because it's again in the rollout process. So, we do expect the returnable presentations to continue to increase. The two-liter PT (ph) -- excuse me, two-liter returnable PT (ph) in Argentina still accounts for less than half a percentage point.
And so, where is that going to stop? I think that we still see some room for growth. I do see Paris (ph) being achieved very objectively or very easily. Obviously as the economy and if the economy starts to recuperate a little bit, we will start seeing signs again of people going a little bit for the convenience of the one way package. But I think that 30 percent is very achievable and potentially the situation stays as it is we barely (ph) can continue to increase that. There's one important data that we have in Argentina that also sheds some light on the fact that people are going for some premium presentation is our -- is the fact that Fanta Light, which is being sold at premium prices, is doing very well in our launch. So, there is still this segment of the population that still goes for the high end products.
With respect to market shares, I'll have to review that with you later because I don't have the information here on hand. In general, the trend is that in Argentina we have an increasing our share market. In Mexico the share is very stable because of what we said of the competitive -- the competitive that we have been seeing here with Pepsi at 10 pesos and Cola Real presence over the markets. In the southeast of Mexico, we have been seeing -- we have seen some increases in our share of market. But let me just give some later information that we have and we will share that with you.
Carlos Laboy
Thank you. Hector, just as it relates to the first question, is the supermarket getting returnable bottles or do you expect them to get more returnable bottles in Argentina?
Hector Trevino - CFO
They are not getting the 1.25. We are reviewing the strategy of selling to them the two liter returnable PT (ph). But they are not getting the 1.25 glass presentation. The two liter returnable PT (ph), as I said, represents a very small portion of our mix, but we are currently evaluating that.
Carlos Laboy
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Robert Ford with Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead, sir.
Robert Ford
Hey, good morning, Hector. With respect to colas in Mexico, when I back out the numbers it appears as if cola volumes are actually down a couple percentage points, particularly in the city of Mexico. And I was curious as to why that would occur, especially in light of the introduction of the larger 2.5 liter package. Is that number correct?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. We do believe -- definitely the volumes in value of Mexico were down versus last year, as you say, around that. The industry was down in general around two percentage points. When we come to review the performance of Coca-Cola FEMSA compared to the rest of the Coca-Cola bottlers in Mexico, we are representing again 60 percent of the incremental cases being sold in the country, again, when we presently represent around 25 percent of the total mix. So, that clearly gives you an idea that the industry -- was a slow quarter for the industry in general. But when you look at the whole numbers, as we mentioned, a lot of the growth came from the new flavor that we introduced, like Fanta Green Apple and some additional flavors that were launched on the Fanta trademark, especially in the southeast of Mexico, and in some channels in the Bodega channel in Mexico City. The Mundet (ph) also contributed a lot to volume increase, and obviously the five-liter water presentation. When you -- as we mentioned in these comments that I was doing at the beginning, the cola volumes for Mexico as a whole decrease around 1.3 in the quarter for our company, and because of this delay in the rollout that I was explaining to you guys, when we isolate the month of March, when we look at March alone, cola volumes were growing two percent because at that time we already have an important portion of the rollout in place now. So we do expect to regain some of the cola growth as we move ahead in the year.
Robert Ford
Hector, when you say that you had some difficulties with the rollout of the 2.5, had you already begun to withdraw some of the two liter breath (ph) tests (ph) from the marketplace?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. I mean in every place that we do the rollout of the two and a half, we start this in total substitution of the two liter returnable PP (ph). So when we -- if you look at, and remember that this is just for Mexico City, no? In the southeast we continue with the two liters. When we do the launching in one of the different areas or segments that we have in the, in the city, we totally substitute two liter, take out the two liter bottle and introduce the two and a half. It's a complicated process when you take into consideration the number of retailers and the number of houses that have the two liter bottles in their, in their pantries, no? So it is a process that you need a lot of experience to execute importantly noted (ph).
I mean, part of the delay of this as I mentioned is the problem that we have with some of the, with one production line in our supplier of bottles, but also the processes is very different when you do a substitution of a rollout of a returnable product (ph) versus when you do a one-way introduction. The one-way doesn't, you just, all the product in the warehouses and the distribution centers, and just start one day to the other. In the, in the returnable, what you do, the rollout of our returnable product, the process is in a way painful because you got to go through with a lot of detail, exchanging the one bottle of two and a half liter against the two liter empty bottle, no? Of that you find in this specific area.
Robert Ford
I guess the point I was trying to determine is whether or not you started withdrawing the two liter before you had the 2.5 liter supplies? And you were caught short of two-liter product in the marketplace?
Hector Trevino - CFO
No. No, no, no. That was not the case.
Robert Ford
OK.
Hector Trevino - CFO
It's just the five dot (ph) before the introduction of two and a half liter. In general the cola segment was coming down for the total Indus (ph). I believe that with the two and a half, the price reduction on Pepsi, and some of the activity that cola bell (ph) and other competitors are doing in the cola market, it's in a way bringing some additional growth to this specific segment of colas, no?
Robert Ford
Great.
Jose Antonio Fernandez
Hi. This is Antonio Fernandez, how are you?
Robert Ford
Good, thanks. How are you?
Jose Antonio Fernandez
Also always remember that we, when during the fourth quarter of last year, we stopped selling the market a returnable presentation for flavors. And we only had one ways, and then we revalinditized (ph) from 14 places to 12 now. In a way that move made very compelling the flavors, that in a way had an impact on the performance on colas, no? Now that you have another company presentation and the industry-wide sales is being more aggressive on in different strategies, cola will again be compelling also. So in a way you have one impact related to the heavy promotional strategies or marketing strategies related to flavors at the end of the fourth quarter, no?
Robert Ford
That's great. Thank you very much Antonio.
Jose Antonio Fernandez
OK.
Robert Ford
With respect to the PET resin pressures that you experienced in the first quarter, can you talk a little bit about PET pricing and the outlook, how much of a price increase you've already accepted from your PET suppliers? And then whether or not you've begun to try to leverage some of the benefits of your greater scale now that you, you know, the acquisition's almost complete. Have you already begun trying to leverage that scale with some of your raw material suppliers?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. Well that is one of the areas of opportunity that we see on, with the new scale that the company will have starting next week. It's the possibility of being able to negotiate better, again because of the scale, some of the, of the main raw materials. One of the most interesting points in during this quarter is the fact that raising prices because of it being related to all PET increase substantially, at the end of the day in dollar terms, the bottles, PET bottles have increased around ten percent for us. That's in dollar terms.
On top of that, we have a devaluation of the Mexican peso when we compare versus the same quarter of last year, of around 18 percent. So in peso terms, you are somewhere within 25 to 30 percent additional cost on some of these bottles, no of the PET bottles, which is a very large increase. Obviously as we are better positioned on the tunnel (ph) presentations, that is turning out to be a very important competitive advantage, or a very important element in our competitive strategy.
That fact, the fact that as we use several times, several times our returnable bottle, we are able to disseminate this increase in cost in several turns that we, that we use these bottles, no? So our competitors, especially the b brands that are selling at these very low prices, life is not very easy with this PET prices.
Robert Ford
I could imagine. And then you, there was a reference to reduced marketing spending in the quarter, and I think that's the second time in a row that we've seen that occur. Is the Coca-Cola system in Mexico just spending less with respect to marketing, or are you obtaining more support from the Coca-Cola Company in Mexico?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. We have, we basically have lowered (ph), is not very significant, but we have a small reduction in the marketing expenses in general, which are related mainly to the fact that now a big portion of our volume, of our growth is, have to do with water, and in water the marketing that has been put behind that is not the same that are in carbonated soft drinks. And at the same time, we do start seeing this reductions on price per unit case, like with the introduction of the two and a half liters returnables et cetera.
We obviously in a way part of your marketing expense, if you will, is going to, is to pricing as opposed to actually spending that in the market. What I'm trying to say is that as we are seeing inton (ph) presentations some lower prices per unit case, we are trying to adjust that also in order, the marketing expenses. It's not very significant, and I'll still will expect that at the end of the year we'll have somewhere around 12 percent of our revenues of the total marketing expense for the company. If you were to isolate the specifically marketing expense for this first quarter, this is slightly below that four percent number that I've been giving you.
In Argentina however, where the situation is very difficult, we are reducing together with the Coca-Cola Company some of the marketing expenses, because at the end of the day, when you are in that kind of situation -- excuse me -- where price is a very important variable of the competition formula, marketing is not needed to the same extent that you have in a more established market. So in Argentina we are seeing a reduction in marketing expenses, together with the Coca-Cola Company.
Robert Ford
Great. Thank you very much Hector.
Operator
The next question comes from Laura Sera (ph) with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, sir.
Laura Sera
Good morning. Just a couple of things on the quarter, and then I wanted to ask a different question. Not to beat a dead horse, but if I looked at the numbers correctly, and I isolated soft drinks alone, it looks to me like on a sequential basis that your revenue per case in soft drinks went down a little over one percent on a non-inflation adjusted basis. And yet, you talked about how you raised pricing in the beginning of January by two and a half percent, and the fact that the two and a half liter was not very present during most of the, of the first quarter.
And I'm wondering if that is explainable completely by a mix shift? Specifically the flavors, or is there something else going on in terms of why you're not picking up more of those pricing actions that you took at the beginning of the first quarter?
Hector Trevino - CFO
What you're referring to sequential meaning ...
Laura Sera
Versus the fourth quarter.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Versus the fourth quarter. I mean, the activities that we have when you compare that and I don't have June numbers in front of me, but let me tell you what activities we have done that have in a way affected the average price that we have in the first quarter. We had these increases that we mentioned on some of the presentations and in the real (ph) side.
On the other hand, we have the rollout, even though it's partial, it's still the rollout of two and a half that carries a lower price per unit case. And we also have the important growth of water. Both on the personal sizes that we have, a lower price per unit case that a, that a, that a case of soft drinks, and very importantly, the effect of five liters that has been introduced obviously at a price per unit case that are, that is -- would if you tried to -- when you look at this, at the price, the average price per unit case of the company and you consider that two liter unit cases is related to five liters ...
Laura Sera
Hector, I can follow up with Alfredo, but you gave us the data to be able to isolate that, so I'm just looking at the non-jug water, or the non-five liter.
Hector Trevino - CFO
OK.
Laura Sera
But I can follow-up. Let me ask ...
Hector Trevino - CFO
OK.
Laura Sera
... a different question. You had ...
Hector Trevino - CFO
But let me, let me just finish with some of the, of the activities so that you have the whole picture here. The other movement that we have is that we introduced the one and three-quarter one-way presentation on flavors on bodegas, at a, to compete in that specific channel, which has some effect on the pricing, and as Antonio mentioned earlier, the aggressiveness on the flavors, on the two liter one-way when we were pulling out the returnable also had an effect, a negative effect on prices. That's background on the fourth quarter. So, you can follow-up with Alfredo, but those are the basic general movement that we have had, no?
Laura Sera
OK. Two other specific questions on the quarter. One is that your volume growth, given that the two and a half liter wasn't really fully in effect, is pretty impressive in the flavor category. Do you have any sense for us of what you think you're capable of delivering in terms of volume growth in the valley of Mexico and the southeast this year, as the, as the Coca-Cola volume kicks in with the two and a half liter, and as I assume you're getting more growth from your flavor portfolio? Can you give us a sense of what you think is a realistic volume target for your to perform at this year?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Laura, I'm prefer to wait a little bit, and that no we have not been providing any guidance this year because of all the things that are happening in the company. There is a lot of strategies going on, so and prefer to wait and answer that when I feel a little more comfortable in providing guidance.
Laura Sera
OK. Well let me ask one question that's sort of related to that, and, or two parts of the question. Your administrative costs were also very controlled in the quarter, which was very impressive given that you're, you know, you're in the midst of a major acquisition. So, I guess, in general I was wondering how you're able to control the administrative costs so effectively, and whether that's sustainable?
And then, and then I guess on sort of a broader basis, you're a week from closing the Penamco (ph) deal. I wonder if you could update us in terms of any general thoughts you've had, and what you've learned in the last couple of months that, you know, make you readdress or review the original estimate you had in terms of the synergy gains for the transaction, or some of the abilities you have, you see, particularly in the case of Mexico, to grow per capita consumption as you've talked about?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. Well, first of all, let me address the administrative expenses. We have been -- it's important to point out that all the expenses related to the integration, advisory pieces, et cetera, that are related to the Penamco (ph) acquisition are not included in the administrative costs. Those costs are going to be capitalized together with, are part of the acquisition cost that, and when we finalize this process of moving Penamco (ph) from dual (ph) GAAP to Mexican GAAP, and finish our process of revaluing (ph) that at the end of it they will have an initial balance sheet that will very clearly demonstrate what is the goodwill that is included in this acquisition.
But again, some of the costs that are being expend presently with the integration process and the people that are looking and all this integration plan and very especially all M&A (ph) advisory and legal fees and all of that, is part of the difference, of the deferred charges that we will have on the acquisition, no? Now with respect to the integration process, we are this week basically together with all the new management team that will be in place starting next week. As we mentioned in this conference our way (ph) diays (ph) out on May 6th will announce what the new management structure is.
Right now we have been on these three days starting last Monday, working together with the people from Penamco (ph) that are staying in the organization, and obviously mostly all of the people that are, that are in the operations on Penamco (ph), to start the integration process for them to know our values and processes, and how we manage our business. And start discussing with them the ideals that we have with respect to strategies, and in a way of the business plan going forward.
The idea that we have Laura (ph), that I need to polish that with Carlos Salazar, is that once the new management team is in place, and that they have few weeks or a few months to really consolidate their plans, maybe as to address and the, or you know, do a road show or a conference, where we would try to convey to the market the main strategies and the business plan that we are seeing for each of these regions that we'll have in the future.
As of this moment, given the fact that Penamco (ph) is still in, or the Penamco (ph) management is still in control of Penamco (ph), and that we have been working together with them, we still need to feel a bit more comfortable in fact of being able to communicate to you two or three main drivers that we will be looking for each of the countries, so that you will be able to follow very closely our performance going forward. But I do see that happening a little bit more down the road, again once we have taken control of this operation, and finalized our process of developing the new business plan for this region, no?
Laura Sera
OK. Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator
The next question we have is from Louis Valarino (ph) with Axeval (ph). Please go ahead.
Louis Valarino
Yes, hi. Good morning Hector, good morning Antonio. I have a couple of questions. First of all, right now you're, the five liter CL (ph) presentation is about two and a half percent of you mix. So I was wondering if you would be needing at some volume level, to develop a proprietary or a specialized solution infrastructure for this product? And secondly, I was wondering if you could give some color, some initial thoughts on the roliation (ph) of Penamco's (ph) assets, particularly in the goodwill side? Thanks. Hello?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. Thank you. If I understand correctly, the first question relates to the new presentation kielo (ph) in the five liters, was that what you were referring to Louis (ph)?
Louis Valarino
Yes Hector. That's exactly the gus (ph), with water just for instance, you need to develop a specialized infrastructure for this region, but -- which is not necessarily the case with this five liter presentation, but maybe at some point you would be needing to develop something like this. So I was wondering if you, if you had some thoughts on this.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Let me tell you what. The main design, or the main driver of the design of this five liter bottle for us had to do with the fact that it can be handled by the small mom and pops, or this miscellaneous (ph) and our rotas (ph) in Mexico, and that we can travel together with our soft drinks in the existing trucks that we have. So with respect to warehouse space, distribution, or space with our clients, we feel that the five liter presentation is just perfect to color what we have.
And we don't need a special adaptation of our distribution or logistics infrastructure because of that. We expect production, those are definitely dedicated lines, and are different from the, from seadese (ph). We have one production line in place in the valley of Mexico, that there is run at full capacity. If we had that additional capacity we will have some more than the three million unit cases, and that's the main reason behind the very heavy price increases that we passed, was a 20 percent increase from ten to 12 pesos. And the volume start (ph) still up to stronger, so we are selling 100 percent of our capacity.
We are in the process of installing a second production line, which is basically related to the, to the low end capacity, not so much to the filling capacity. We have the filling capacity in place. The bottleneck was, had to do with a, with a, with a blown (ph) capacity, and we expect that to start operations, I don't know, in a couple of months. But that's as far as we believe, in our radar screens we expect to investments on this, for this water presentation, no?
Louis Valarino
OK. So in any case would you be willing to make another further price increase to, let's say, stall the amount (inaudible)?
Hector Trevino - CFO
We have been emulating that leaves (ph) and clearly (ph) the move towards what you're (ph) to have another price increase, or do the investment on this low-end equipment. We decided for the first to be a little bit more conservative on that, because obviously as we introduce that presentation, we have created some reaction from our competitors on water. And we need to measure that before we start moving the prices again. But we do believe that there's some room on the pricing of this product. We are going to go first with this increased capacity, and value if we have some extra pricing power on this presentation a little bit later.
Louis Valarino
OK, great. And what about the valuation of Penamco's (ph) assets, would you be able to give some initial thoughts on this? I mean, prior to the closing of the acquisition?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. As you are aware, one of the most complicated processes of this integration is the fact that we need to move seven countries and the Mexican operation of Penamco (ph) to our, to our unified accounting criteria, because we have, with this, we do have some differences in the way we depreciate assets and the way we account for coolers, and bottles, and cases, and things like that. And also moving all of these countries to Mexican GAAP.
The main task in that process is the process of a third-party doing the evaluation of the assets that they have. We hired a couple of firms, one to focus in Mexico, that these are firms that are specialized on sidely (ph) providing the value of these assets, the operation. And another firm, a different firm for the, for all these different, for the other markets. We are expecting an answer from them in the next two weeks, and that we first expect in not being able to start this accounting change to Mexican GAAP.
So as of this moment, it's very difficult, I mean, we don't have any idea yet on how this fair (ph) value are going to come from these two companies, no? As soon as we have that, the next process obviously is to start working along this accounting difference in some of the qualities that we have, as I mentioned, on bottles and cases, depreciation on trucks and on coolers, and trying, and finalize with what the goodwill number will be for this acquisition, no? But we are, we are still not in that moment yet Louis (ph).
Louis Valarino
OK. Very (inaudible) Hector.
Operator
The next question we have is from Maria Jose (ph) with Scotia Envelat (ph). Go ahead please.
Maria Jose
Hi Alfredo, hi Hector, good morning. I have some questions about Penamco's (ph) operation. Regarding the acquisition of Penamco (ph), what percentage of Mexico's total population will you server within Penamco (ph)?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Maria (ph), let me give you an answer that is probably related. I don't have the percentage of the total population, but I do know that we will represent very close to 50 percent of the total Coca-Cola industry in Mexico. Including the water volume that Penamco (ph) has, which are important, no? So it has to be very close to that number, but I, but I don't have the precise numbers.
Maria Jose
OK. Thank you. Or do you have the total population that you serve actually with ca (ph)?
Hector Trevino - CFO
In Mexico?
Maria Jose
Yes.
Hector Trevino - CFO
In Mexico City the estimate is 20 million. In halit (ph) of determinable population. It's a value below 30 million, and the southeast of Mexico is 30 million people. So right now it's around 30.
Maria Jose
OK.
Hector Trevino - CFO
In Argentina it's around (inaudible).
Unidentified
Marie Jose (ph) ...
Hector Trevino - CFO
... around 11 million.
Unidentified
That information is clearly stated in -- this is Alberto Mens (ph), how are you?
Maria Jose
Hi, how are you (inaudible).
Unidentified
You know, you know I know report, and it's very similar in this year and last year.
Maria Jose
OK. And regarding Argentina (ph), you were saying the total population you were serving. I would also like to ask you if have a total market share in your territory there?
Hector Trevino - CFO
I'd like you to call Alfredo later with that, because of the market share numbers we have not been providing that in the passive (ph). Alfredo will give you some guidance on those numbers later.
Maria Jose
OK. And the last question, within the debt, with the debt recently issued in the Mexican market, should we expect that the bridge loan will be lower than initially set, or if it will be mainly used to refinance the bridge loan?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes, definitely the bridge load is reduced by the amount of this financing. It was contractually set by that with a, with a group of lending banks. And we basically out of the, of the total amount we are reducing this $400 million of prefunding that we were able to accomplish last week.
Maria Jose
So the bridge loan will be around $900 million, maybe?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Right now the, let me give you a -- the picture is as follows. We will have this 400 million is the typical (ph) losatalis (ph). We are having around 750 in term financing. And the remaining will be in a 12-month bridge. We still are adjusting that number to, because of the cash resources that we have. But we will, we will be providing that specific number on May 6th, when we close the transaction.
But in general terms, it's 400 in Mexican peso bonds, 750 on three and five-year financing that is already in place, I mean meaning, in place meaning which is not prepared in 12 months, which is contracted like that with a, with a group of banks, and then the remainder will be a 12 month bridge financing.
Jose Antonio Fernandez
But Maria Jose (ph), this is Antonio Fernandez. But certainly the size of the bridge that we're going to need is going to be significantly lower than the one we announced on December 23. And it probably will be a little more than half. So your number is more or less on the ballpark, but we are just adjusting that.
Maria Jose
OK. Thank you very much to both of you. Bye.
Operator
The next question comes from Alex Robart (ph) with Santanda (ph). Please go ahead sir.
Alex Robart
Yes, hi. Actually debt financing was my question, and I just wanted to get -- I have a lot of the details, but my sense is that compared to what you were saying, you know, earlier in this year, you could end up really after all is said and done, issuing about two to $300 million less in gross debt, as you kind of approach this May 6th date.
I mean, is that a rough, is that a safe assumption, is that kind of where you think you would be heading, and is a, is a net debt number for the end of the year of about 2.3 billion something in your range as well? Maybe you can't talk about this too much here as we go in towards the sixth. But finally is the zero net debt target still something that you're thinking about in a timeframe of six years? Or could it be perhaps maybe a couple years sooner?
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes Alex (ph), good morning. The ballpark to your, that we have, and as I mentioned we basically are adjusting for the cash balances that we have on, that the number is pretty much at, we will end up with a total net debt of around 2.5 billion. That includes the new acquisition financing plus the present debt that Coca-Cola Femsa has, which is around 300 million. And some of the Penamco (ph) debt that will stay with us because we are, because are basically the public bonds that they have, which are a yankee (ph) bond that matures in 2009, a peso bond that matures in 2006, and they have some Columbian peso notes that are also public instruments.
So with the, again the acquisition financing process, instruments that I mentioned that are present, both in Penamco (ph) and KUS (ph), the total net debt will be around 2.5.
Alex Robart
That's for year-end, or that's at time of closing?
Hector Trevino - CFO
May 6th.
Alex Robart
Yes.
Hector Trevino - CFO
We clearly will be anticipating generating some cash flow during the year, and obviously our target is to start repaying, to refinance part of the bridge, but at the same time trying to repay with some of the cash balances for part of this bridge. We do have this open issue, which has to do with the rights offering that we have mentioned publicly to all of you. The company will continue with that process.
The first step in that process is to get the numbers, to have the combined numbers together under Mexican GAAP. We are anticipating to report that for the first time by the end of July, when we report second quarter. So I would be anticipating that somewhere during the third quarter, towards the end or maybe the beginning of the fourth quarter, we'll be ready with a full offering document with the SEC, that already review by the SEC with the new numbers in order for us to be able to do this right offers.
If that right offering takes place, as we have mentioned that's around 200, and it's around $270 million that we, will be used to reduce our debt level. So that's a variable that is in the air that will potentially reduce our debt level by the year-end. Plus the cash flow that we generate, we will be able to generate during this year. We are still with the same starry (ph) that in six years will be repaying agreement that net debt back to zero.
One important element to consider here is that the rate at which we are financing this acquisition are very attractive, both because in general rates are lower in the market, to the structural rates are lower, plus the fact that we have been able to achieve important savings on the stress (ph) that we were anticipating back on the six months ago.
Just to give you an idea, if -- and to have a clear idea for, especially for the guys that are, that are not that familiar with the peso financing. If we work to swap this peso financing into fixed rate in dollars, we will be getting rates below five percent for, you know, for four or five, or seven year term, which have the three bonds that we offer. We have to value what is the current capital structure with respect to dollars and pesos in our company. We do believe that we have to have an important presence of pesos in our, in our capital structure.
But the message that I wanted to convey to you is that the rates are very attractive given the, both the rating that we were able to achieve, the process of mititing (ph) these bonds, and the shall (ph) that the rates are very low, at an historical low level. So again, and it's just to give you an idea of what the cost of this debt will be if we work to swap this three bonds into dollars at this time, no?
Alex Robart
Good. No, that's helpful. I wanted just to pass on to a clarification really, what you said before. The CSB (ph) volume in the quarter in Mexico, what was the growth rate of that specifically? And then the two points drop that you mentioned for the industry in the first quarter, was that national or was that, you know, the value of Mexico area?
Unidentified
Could you hold a second on this please? (inaudible).
Unidentified
Yes.
Unidentified
Let me -- I was just checking it ...
Unidentified
Hi, Joe (ph), are you on the line? Hi, Mr. Lowe (ph)? Pardon the interruption, can you please take off -- your phone off of mute? Hi, is anyone on the line?
Unidentified
... for the industry in the body of Mexico is that the industry was down two percent in the body of Mexico. And in the South just it was about five percent. So there's some disparity there in the growth and the -- and the value of Mexico and the (inaudible). But those are the number that we have for (inaudible).
Unidentified
And that's -- and that's probably a gain from PBG (ph) rather than Colary Isle (ph), or is that kind of tough to say?
Unidentified
Let me -- let me check with some numbers here before I answer, give me one second. Alex (ph), the (inaudible) number that we have from this one is that basically Colary Isle (ph) has stable numbers, PBG (ph) is losing some markets there, and I am speaking basically about Mexico City. And the national -- the other national pros (ph) like Balanitos (ph) and Carlitos (ph) that were having some success in the Holegas (ph) channel with introduction of Franta (ph) in one and three quarter liter, and different flavors, not only Noras (ph), but we have four different flavors -- four or five different flavors.
It's creating some market share gain for us during this quarter on that segment Dosova (ph).
Unidentified
Thanks a lot.
Unidentified
Thanks.
Operator
The next question is from Savistol Sanchez (ph) with ING (ph). Please go ahead, sir.
Savistol Sanchez
Hi, good morning. My question -- actually if I could start with Argentina, I have a couple of simple questions. One was going back to an earlier question about the returnable bottles in Argentina, I think you said that glass was not being handled by the supermarkets, but you were discussing with them the PET (ph). Is there initiatives they have specifically with handling glass? Or how does one interpret their willingness to talk about PET (ph) versus the fact that they don't carry glass yet?
Unidentified
There are two issues here with supermarkets. One is that they don't like to handle glass, it was in the past there was some accidents in the stores with Kiter (ph), et cetera. And so they are -- they don't like the glass broke. But the fact of the matter is that when they saw this of sale that the one and a quarter presentation was Haley (ph), they were asking for some kind of return on presentation to either. So -- and the other point is that for us it is an important, this turning point in the industry in Argentina, Nower (ph) industry in Argentina. We try to take that (inaudible) to again.
Here the two changes -- most important changes is to get a more important presence of traditional stores, which is, you know, produced in the supermarket (inaudible) that they were just to keep the present of the board as a supporting fact. And also the fact that Retono's (ph) presentations are within are very important for our companion (inaudible) going forward.
Because of that, we are not going to sell glass to supermarkets, even if they want. Now that they have the two liter return on presentation, seems that these -- the presentation that will better suit their needs, and will also help us go through this with this (inaudible) presentations to supermarkets. We are starting to sell in some of the -- of the -- what we call key accounts, is on the store that we have and we cover for some (DS), et cetera, no.
But it's something that we mentioned. I mean right now their means of that presentation, it's around 0.2 percent, so it's (inaudible) the rollout phase of this. But that's the presentation that is the sign the be present, as Retono's (ph) in supermarkets as well as some of the traditional shares (ph).
Savistol Sanchez
OK, so basically it's ...
Unidentified
Traditional stores of share (ph).
Savistol Sanchez
Right. But they asked you for returnable, and you were appusing (ph) them, but the glass is your decision, not theirs, or as much yours as theirs I should say?
Unidentified
Yes.
Savistol Sanchez
OK.
Unidentified
Yes, it's -- yes our official that we want the presentation that is just targeted to the traditional ...
Savistol Sanchez
OK.
Unidentified
... janor (ph). And we believe that's the one (inaudible) no.
Savistol Sanchez
Are there -- just out of curiosity, do any other beverage companies in Argentina do returnable glass through the supermarkets that you're aware of, whether it's beer or soft drinks at this point?
Unidentified
I've seen beer, but I'm -- but I'm not aware of any Sogen Pro (ph) being sold in (inaudible) with glass in supermarkets.
Savistol Sanchez
Great, OK. A simpler question. What percent of the volumes in Argentina were B brands in the first quarter? Do you have that number handy? Or ...
Unidentified
For the -- for the industry?
Savistol Sanchez
For you actually.
Unidentified
Oh, for us.
Savistol Sanchez
Yes.
Unidentified
Let me give you -- one second, I'll give you (inaudible). Taie (ph) and Cross (ph), which are what we call our Bodge Protection (ph) brands, they were around 20 percent of our mix at the same quarter last year, and now they are 20 percent because of these substitution with more profitable presentation forward, which is the Retono (ph) -- one and a quarter in Corbrasa (ph).
Savistol Sanchez
Sorry, did I hear 12.12 percent?
Unidentified
It's -- it was 20 last year, and now it's 12.
Savistol Sanchez
I'm sorry, I didn't catch that last number again. One two 12, is that right?
Unidentified
Yes.
Savistol Sanchez
Yes, OK, thanks.
Unidentified
One ...
Unidentified
One.
Unidentified
... one -- yes, 12 ...
Savistol Sanchez
Yes, OK sorry. Could you talk a little more about the selling expense savings in Mexico? I thought that was very impressive, and if we talk -- if we separate that out from the administrative controls that you have, it seems to me that there's a lot more -- something's helping set those selling expenses quite a bit, and I wonder if there isn't more to be made of the Coca Cola Company marketing support with respect to the water, because it certainly dropped a lot more than -- you know, than flat revenues year-over-year in real terms.
Unidentified
I expect in general -- I mean the main effect that we have there has to do with the fact that as we were introducing 2.5 liter (ph) presentations the brackets (ph) that we have -- it's substantially lower than what we had last year because obviously the advertising (ph) is producing that move throughout (inaudible) the brackets (ph). I mean you basically have no bottles in the marketplace.
Besides that, we increased salaries in general below the inflation level that we have also -- what reflected that.
Some of the efficiencies that we have achieved in order distribution -- remember that I was having you speaking of a first stage of working a lot with the production market plan?
Savistol Sanchez
Yes.
Unidentified
And that we were now working with this distribution and logistics market plan? So we have been achieving some efficiencies there also.
Savistol Sanchez
Yes.
Unidentified
And as we mentioned earlier, we've had some lower marketing expenses when compared to last year.
But right -- at the end of the day the message that I want to convey is that I do anticipate (ph) expenses to be around 4% for the year. I don't remember exactly last year, but it was surely (ph) around that level -- slightly higher than that.
Savistol Sanchez
yes.
Unidentified
So it's not necessarily that we are reducing some of the promotional activity that we normally have. As I mentioned, some of the products like Ciel (ph) are percentage-wise -- or proportionally are not advertised as much as some things or promoted as much as some things are.
So as Ciel (ph) continues to grow in our mix, we might see some reduction in those marketing expenses because of this -- let me call it -- mix change, (inaudible) that carries (ph) as lower marketing expense.
Savistol Sanchez
So with respect to the breakage expense, that's pretty much something that we should see cycle out by the end of the second quarter when you've got all of the 2.5 liter new bottles and replace ...
Unidentified
Right.
Savistol Sanchez
... out the old.
Unidentified
Yes. Definitely. Definitely.
Savistol Sanchez
OK. If I can ask this one last question, then that's simply -- you had talked a little about the timing of integration post-May 6 getting management so -- the chosen managements of the successor company together and talking through the KOF way of doing thins and vision and so-forth, and then a follow-up road show or conference. Does that put us into sort of July for that conference? Or September? When might we see pretty detailed communication of what the new entity's business plan is?
Unidentified
As of this time I'm in the same boat that you guys are. I'm desperate to have some kind of signal on that. My sense is that probably a three-month period will be far enough for them to give some times on and expect some somewhere around June/July. June/July starting to -- maybe together with our first results being announced for the new company -- or the new combined. As we mentioned we will be reporting at the end of July.
Savistol Sanchez
Yes.
Unidentified
My expectation is to try to do something communicating results plus some of this (inaudible) together around the end of July.
Savistol Sanchez
OK.
Unidentified
I don't have a firm -- I mean I cannot commit totally to that because obviously it's not totally in my hands here ...
Savistol Sanchez
No. No. I just want tog et a sense of how many weeks. Because a lot of planning had already taken place and it was really just a question of formalities next week, or there is still obviously some integration and ....
Unidentified
Well ...
Savistol Sanchez
... have to take place.
Unidentified
Well, I want also to send a message that we do have a lot of plans to be executed as we come. A lot of that has to do with taking controls (inaudible) on some of these new operations. A lot of them got to do with implementing management changes and how do you go through all the process of -- let me use the word educating with the new processes and the way of doing business to some of these new beers (ph) that work with us. For example, in how to say targets that will be for the year that we also be related to the compensation and the balances for this effective (ph), so we would need to work with all that process and how we do that. A lot of those plans have to do with taking control of the basic things, like the accounting, cash balances, checking books and all of that which is -- which are (inaudible).
Unidentified
OK.
Hector Trevino - CFO
And we do have some basic plans that we need -- and the other is basically to reconfirm once we are sitting there that these are direct processes and to start seeing some movement in the market and then communicate to all of you, no?
Unidentified
OK. Alright. Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question is from Pablo Simech (ph) from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead, sir.
Pablo Simech
Good morning, Hector (ph). Actually, good afternoon now, but just a quick question on cap ex. I just wanted to come back to a number of guidance you've given of $350 million for '03 and '04. Is there anything new there that would make you revise that number down. And in particular, is it necessary to be able, you know, and now to look at plans in Pueblo (ph) and lots of other territories right now based on your findings of the Konam (ph) Corporations. And on the sit -- and on a related subject, why is cap ex up like 50 percent for Guegolo (ph) in the first quarter of '03? And then I have a question on Bananco (ph), but if iaudible (ph) first, please. Thank you.
Hector Trevino - CFO
Yes. Well, let me -- let me start with the cap ex of the new company going forward. We do have some expectations that the number will be lower than the 350 that we mentioned for the -- for the first two years of operation, 350 of every year. We are totally reviewing that and my expectation is that it's a lot related to these different plans that I was mentioning and on the last question would (inaudible). As soon as we cover up firm -- or a firmer business plan of these new operations, we'll be able to communicate on the cap ex. My initial expectation is after reviewing what we see is that we will not need the $350 million on each of the two first years. We are not expecting to build a new Taluca (ph) in the near term. The finance -- or not the finance, the preliminary manufacturing plan that we have is that we'll start working with the plans that they have in the Baquillo (ph) and the plans that they have in the Guegolo (ph). We will start looking some of these companies without feeling the need to consider everything one big production plan. We do expect that, as again, it's a preliminary plan, but a new plan will be needed around 2005. So that clearly also is part of the reason why we are not expecting -- when we were communicating to you back in December, the 350 on the first two years included building some new facilities in these territories and that's one of the reasons that we are rewriting downward the cap ex number.
In the case of Coca Cola Frensa (ph), we have something -- somewhere around $30 million on the first quarter, which is slightly higher than what we returned it (ph) for I guess. And I think (ph) that medical (ph) from that but one of the main issues that we have there (ph) it's (ph) always (ph) leading (ph) production (ph) of this returnable bottles in the two-and-a-half presentation, which is -- you know, very heavy (ph) in terms of capital expenditure no (ph).
Pablo Simech
Right. OK, thank you (ph).
Unidentified
(inaudible) we (ph) can't (ph) -- we (ph) meet (ph) up (ph) with (ph) you later (ph) I mean that's a -- we polish (ph) a (ph) little (ph) bit (ph) the number.
Pablo Simech
OK, and just a question regarding the bananco (ph) territories -- what have (ph) you (ph) evidence of pricing if you have to compare (ph) the gulf region and the baaheea (ph) region with the Mexico City average pricing. How would prices compare? And assuming that they are lower -- know (ph) what's the potential to increase those prices in terms of better execution? Or is the competitive environment there different?
Unidentified
In (ph) what (ph) -- we (ph) have (ph) still (ph) followed it (ph) they have lower prices than what we have. They (ph) look (ph) at (ph) this (ph) -- we do the same (ph) that we would be able -- the main issue going forward is the idea of ...
Operator
Hello (ph), good morning, Mr. Trevino (ph) -- pardon me for the interruption, this is the conference connect (ph) frank (ph). If you have your line muted, would you please unmute the line. This is a private conference call -- no one else can hear this conversation.
Hello.
Hello, is there anyone on the line?
May I have your phone number if you please?
Unidentified
boardler (ph) with some of the competitors there. So by having unity of criteria will expect to (ph) have (ph) taken (ph) architecture. I think that would help tremendously to recall (ph) a fencer (ph) to start avoiding this problem that we have had in the past yes (ph) of different pricing architecture that has in turn combait (ph) this problem of trans (ph) shipment (ph) yes (ph).
It's very difficult again (ph) to guide to -- style (ph) the specific price increase for this third doice (ph). That's the trend of the move (ph) expect because of -- as I mentioned we -- they do have lower prices renew (ph) this case. But it's some of their -- some of the strappys (ph) that went into (ph) this course in this conference all of the structure (ph) that I mentioned is this -- exactly why we went over with (ph) a pricing strategy you mentioned on the third terse (ph).
And I conduct (ph) that basically is what I can tell you right now about it.
Unidentified
OK. Good one (ph).
And just a last question -- you know, these pricing moves on your family-site (ph) presentations to leah (ph) flavors is to bring five returnable, which you may have to fund to some extent by increasing prices on the single serves. Then you run the risk of a mix (ph) change obviously in terms of our single serves declining and my understanding was the single serve were more profitable. Is that a concern? Or can that me managed somehow?
Unidentified
I mean at the end of the day it is a very difficult balance that we (ph) try to accomplish. I think that we are very good at it -- at it and we have been very good at it over the last year. We can see some opportunities on this single serve. They are definitely more profitable (ph) than the larger presentations. But we do believe that these movements that we are doing today is because we have some room there in order (ph) to and we can take some -- a little bit more monier (ph) out of the table (ph) I think that we should do it no. It's a difficult balance probably (ph) as you correctly pointed out. The risk that you start selling (ph) more of the next presentations a little bit less of the -- in your (ph) presentations but that's the -- one of the core -- the things that you need to know in this market and one of the core activities in ohaa (ph) so this pricing movements and pricing architecture and trying to anticipate on every dealers (ph) piece of this pros (ph) no.
Unidentified
OK, that's good. Thank you.
And just -- the last question -- accounting question -- despite higher cap ex, non-cash charges -- I mean I think you (ph) and depreciation were down 25 percent in the fourth quarter and down about 14 percent now in the first quarter year-in-year -- why is that happening?
Unidentified
Let me relate (ph) break up two main issues here. One has to move with breakers (ph) as we mention -- we basic break it for this required (ph) -- what's substantially lower. And I think that we also go on effect of the position in (ph) Argentina. But I like to verify that later on probably if you want (ph).
Unidentified
OK, that's fine. I mean those numbers weren't (ph) from Mexico but that's fine. Thanks very much Antonio (ph).
Unidentified
Yes. Very good. We have time for another question please.
Operator
Sir, we have no more questions at this time.
Unidentified
OK.
Thank you for your call, your attention and as we mentioned we look forward to finalizing our times with the wellbiss (ph) presentation so that we can share with you some of the main ideas that we have with respect to the operation (ph) and financial (ph).
Next week is very important week for us (ph). We celebrate our own birthday from two to May 6. When I talk with you will remain over (ph) for any additional questions that you might have and you call me you are available (ph).
Thank you.
Operator
Lades, and, gentlemen, thank you for joining today's conference -- this concludes the program. You may now disconnect.
Good day.