Kemper Corp (KMPR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Kemper's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lesser, and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 Kemper 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫萊瑟，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Karen Guerra, Kemper's Vice President for Investor Relations. Ms. Guerra, you may begin.

現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人凱倫·格拉 (Karen Guerra)，她是肯珀 (Kemper) 投資者關係副總裁。格拉女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Kemper's discussion of our third quarter 2023 results. This afternoon, you'll hear from Joe Lacher, Kemper's President and Chief Executive Officer and Chairman; Brad Camden, Kemper's Senior Vice President and Interim Chief Financial Officer; and Matt Hunton, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of Kemper Auto. We'll make a few opening remarks to provide context around our third quarter results followed by a Q&A session.

謝謝你，接線生。大家下午好，歡迎參加 Kemper 對我們 2023 年第三季業績的討論。今天下午，您將聽到 Kemper 總裁兼執行長兼董事長 Joe Lacher 的演講； Brad Camden，Kemper 資深副總裁兼臨時財務長；以及 Kemper 執行副總裁兼 Kemper Auto 總裁 Matt Hunton。我們將做一些開場白，提供有關我們第三季度業績的背景信息，然後進行問答環節。

During the interactive portion of our call, our presenters will be joined by Duane Sanders, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of the P&C division. John Boschelli, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer; and Chris Flint, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of Kemper Life. After the markets closed today, we issued our earnings release and published our earnings presentation, financial supplement and Form 10-Q. You can find these documents in the Investors section of our website, kemper.com.

在電話會議的互動部分，Kemper 執行副總裁兼財產與意外傷害部門總裁 Duane Sanders 將與我們的演講者一起參與。 John Boschelli，Kemper 執行副總裁兼首席投資長；以及 Kemper 執行副總裁兼 Kemper Life 總裁 Chris Flint。今天收盤後，我們發布了收益報告，並發布了收益報告、財務補充報告和 10-Q 表格。您可以在我們網站 kemper.com 的投資者部分找到這些文件。

Our discussion today may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, but are not limited to the company's outlook and its future results of operations and financial conditions. Our actual future results and financial condition may differ materially from these statements. For information on additional risks that may impact these forward-looking statements, please refer to our 2022 Form 10-K and our third quarter earnings release.

我們今天的討論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於公司的前景及其未來的經營業績和財務狀況。我們未來的實際結果和財務狀況可能與這些陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響這些前瞻性陳述的其他風險的信息，請參閱我們的 2022 年 10-K 表格和第三季度收益發布。

This afternoon's discussion also includes non-GAAP financial measures we believe are meaningful to investors. In our financial supplement, earnings presentation and earnings release, we've defined and reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP where required in accordance with the SEC rules. You can find each of these documents in the Investors section of our website, kemper.com. All comparative references will be to the corresponding 2022 period unless otherwise stated.

今天下午的討論還包括我們認為對投資者有意義的非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的財務補充資料、收益報告和收益發布中，我們根據 SEC 規則的要求，定義了所有非 GAAP 財務指標，並將其與 GAAP 進行了協調。您可以在我們網站 kemper.com 的投資者部分找到這些文件。除非另有說明，所有比較參考均針對相應的 2022 年期間。

I will now turn the call over to Joe.

我現在會把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Karen. Good afternoon, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We're going to communicate several key points today, perhaps best grouped into 4 buckets. First is the favorable trend in our underlying results. Our underlying combined ratio improved sequentially and was inside the range of our prior guidance. Second is what's happening outside the current year underlying results, including additional prior year reserve development. Third is the strong progress made on our strategic initiatives, which together reduced our long-term risk, improve our capital and liquidity and enhance our ability to generate stable long-term distributable cash flow and earnings. And lastly, we are reaffirming our full year 2024 guidance.

謝謝你，凱倫。下午好，謝謝大家今天加入我們。今天我們將討論幾個關鍵點，也許最好分成 4 個部分。首先是我們基本業績的有利趨勢。我們的基礎綜合成本率連續改善，並在我們先前的指導範圍內。其次是本年度基本業績以外發生的情況，包括前一年的額外儲備開發。第三是策略措施取得重大進展，降低了長期風險，改善了資本和流動性，增強了產生穩定的長期可分配現金流量和獲利的能力。最後，我們重申 2024 年全年指引。

Let's move to Page 4. Looking at results. We're pleased with the 1.5 point sequential improvement in the Specialty P&C underlying combined ratio as the benefits from our profit improvement actions take further hold. We have confidence in further improvements as we look forward. As expected, the 30-point California personal auto rate increase effective in August, had only a marginal earned impact in the third quarter. Its earned impact will meaningfully increase in each of the next 2 quarters.

讓我們轉到第 4 頁。查看結果。我們對專業財產險基礎綜合成本率連續改善 1.5 個百分點感到高興，因為我們的利潤改善行動帶來的好處進一步顯現。展望未來，我們對進一步改進充滿信心。正如預期的那樣，加州個人汽車費率上調 30 個點於 8 月生效，但對第三季的收入影響微乎其微。其所帶來的影響將在接下來的兩個季度中顯著增加。

This incremental earn rate, along with the additional benefits from all our other profit improvement actions provides a significant tailwind for loss ratio improvement in the fourth quarter and more so for full year 2024.

這種增量收益率，加上我們所有其他利潤改善行動帶來的額外收益，為第四季度的損失率改善提供了巨大的推動力，對於 2024 年全年來說更是如此。

Moving to our second big topic. What's happening outside of the current year's underlying results. Prior year reserve development was largely driven by recent trends in Florida personal injury protection or PIP, which has been an industry issue in recent quarters, and to a lesser extent, the extension of the bodily injury and property damage development patterns from 2022. We'll discuss the drivers further when we get to Slide 6.

轉到我們的第二個大話題。本年度基本結果之外發生的事。去年儲備金的發展主要是由佛羅裡達州人身傷害保護(PIP) 的最新趨勢推動的，這在最近幾個季度一直是一個行業問題，並且在較小程度上是由2022 年起人身傷害和財產損失發展模式的延伸所推動的。我們當我們看到幻燈片 6 時，我們將進一步討論驅動因素。

Reflecting on our third major topic, we continue to make strong progress on our strategic initiatives. All our programs are on track to be completed on time and produce or exceed their targeted financial and operational benefits.

回顧我們的第三個主要主題，我們的策略舉措持續取得強勁進展。我們所有的計劃都有望按時完成，並產生或超過其目標財務和營運效益。

Let me comment on a few highlights. We're very pleased that our reciprocal exchange has received all necessary approvals and was actively writing business during the quarter, albeit at expectedly modest premium levels. The exit from the preferred home and auto business is moving as expected.

讓我評論一下幾個亮點。我們非常高興我們的互惠交易所已獲得所有必要的批准，並在本季度積極開展業務，儘管保費水平與預期的適中。首選家居和汽車業務的退出正在按預期進行。

This action will enhance our return on capital and support profitable growth in our core businesses. We expect to realize significant additional liquidity benefits in the fourth quarter from the Bermuda optimization; and finally, we're meeting or exceeding the expected expense savings with each of our cost structure initiatives. Advancing these initiatives further enhances Kemper's operating capabilities and financial profile. We remain highly focused on returning the business to profitability and maximizing long-term shareholder value.

此舉將提高我們的資本回報率並支持我們核心業務的獲利成長。我們預計第四季將透過百慕達優化實現顯著的額外流動性收益；最後，我們的每項成本結構措施都達到或超過了預期的費用節省。推動這些舉措進一步增強了 Kemper 的營運能力和財務狀況。我們仍然高度關注使業務恢復盈利並最大化長期股東價值。

This leads me to our last topic. We are reaffirming our 2024 financial guidance. We continue to expect a 2024 ROE equal to or greater than 10%. I've spoken frequently about this environment being the most dynamic and volatile the personal auto insurance industry has ever seen. I still believe that.

這引出了我們的最後一個主題。我們重申 2024 年財務指引。我們繼續預期 2024 年 ROE 等於或大於 10%。我經常談到這種環境是個人汽車保險業有史以來最具活力和波動性的。我仍然相信這一點。

While we believe this will persist for at least a year or 2, we continue to be optimistic about what's ahead for Kemper.

雖然我們相信這種情況將持續至少一兩年，但我們仍然對肯珀的未來感到樂觀。

And now I'll turn the call over to Brad.

現在我將把電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, Joe. I'll begin on Page 5. As Joe highlighted, we had another quarter of improved underlying results, positioning us for return to profitability. Offsetting this progress is prior year development, pension settlement and catastrophes. For the quarter, we had a net loss of $2.28 per diluted share and adjusted consolidated net operating loss of $0.44. The net loss included a noncash charge of $56 million related to the termination of our remaining pension obligations, which was previously recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income or AOCI.

謝謝你，喬。我將從第 5 頁開始。正如 Joe 所強調的那樣，我們又一個季度的基本業績有所改善，為我們恢復盈利做好了準備。上一年的發展、退休金結算和災難抵消了這一進展。本季度，我們攤薄後每股淨虧損為 2.28 美元，調整後合併淨營運虧損為 0.44 美元。淨虧損包括與終止我們剩餘退休金義務相關的 5,600 萬美元非現金費用，該費用之前已在累計其他綜合收益或 AOCI 中確認。

The net loss and adjusted consolidated net operating loss included Specialty Auto adverse development, $78 million and catastrophes of $7 million. Last quarter, we announced that we were exiting the Preferred P&C business and as a result, the business is now reported below the line and noncore operations.

淨虧損和調整後的合併淨營運虧損包括特種汽車不利發展損失 7,800 萬美元和災難損失 700 萬美元。上個季度，我們宣布退出首選財產保險業務，因此該業務現在報告為線下業務和非核心業務。

The business generated a net loss of $7 million, including approximately $14 million in pretax catastrophe losses.

該業務產生了 700 萬美元的淨虧損，其中包括約 1,400 萬美元的稅前巨災損失。

Turning to the prior year reserve development details on Page 6. Florida PIP bodily injury and property damage coverages drove reserve strengthening. PIP reserve changes resulted from increased frequency and severity of litigated claim activity, mainly from policy periods 2020 through 2022. Today, roughly 3/4 of PIP claims have attorney representation up from 2/3 a few years ago.

轉向第 6 頁上一年的儲備金開發詳細資訊。佛羅裡達州 PIP 人身傷害和財產損失保險推動了儲備金的加強。 PIP 準備金的變化是由於訴訟索賠活動的頻率和嚴重性增加所致，主要是在2020 年至2022 年的保單期間。如今，大約3/4 的PIP 索賠有律師代表，而幾年前只有2 /3。

We anticipate internal representation for these policy periods will remain elevated and have reflected this in our reserving.

我們預計這些政策期間的內部代表性將保持在較高水平，並已在我們的儲備中反映出來。

On bodily injury and property damage related claims, we continue to see extended claim reporting time lines and more claims closing with mainly related to activity during the second half of 2022.

在人身傷害和財產損失相關索賠方面，我們繼續看到索賠報告時間延長，更多索賠結案主要與 2022 年下半年的活動相關。

As Joe noted, the environment continues to be volatile. However, given the short-tail nature of our business, we are confident we have recognized these emerging trends in prior and current year reserves.

正如喬指出的那樣，環境仍然不穩定。然而，考慮到我們業務的短尾性質，我們相信我們已經認識到了去年和今年儲備中的這些新興趨勢。

Pages 7, 8 and 9 provide an update on our strategic initiatives. These are on track to be completed on time, producing or exceeding their targeted financial and operational benefits. As you know, we launched the Bermuda project in 2022, and we continue to optimize the initiative. We expect $250 million in life dividends to be paid to the parent in the fourth quarter, up from $200 million, as previously indicated. This continues to create value and financial flexibility for the company.

第 7、8 和 9 頁提供了我們策略性舉措的最新資訊。這些計劃預計將按時完成，產生或超過其目標財務和營運效益。如你所知，我們於2022年啟動了百慕達項目，並且我們不斷優化該計劃。我們預計第四季將向母公司支付 2.5 億美元的壽險股息，高於先前所述的 2 億美元。這將繼續為公司創造價值和財務靈活性。

This quarter, we also included our multiyear pension termination project, which reduced our tail risk and related expenses. We recognized a $56 million noncash charge to finalize the termination, which was previously recognized in AOCI and is therefore neutral to shareholders' equity.

本季度，我們還納入了多年退休金終止項目，這降低了我們的尾部風險和相關費用。我們確認了 5,600 萬美元的非現金費用以完成終止，該費用之前已在 AOCI 中確認，因此對股東權益而言是中性的。

Last quarter, we announced our exit from the Preferred P&C business. The wind-down process is underway and is expected to release approximately $175 million of capital by the end of 2024 and another $100 million in 2025.

上季度，我們宣布退出首選財產險業務。關閉過程正在進行中，預計到 2024 年底將釋放約 1.75 億美元的資本，並在 2025 年再釋放 1 億美元。

Next, our cost reduction initiatives are on track to produce their intended benefits. Since the onset of this effort, we have already achieved over $135 million of run rate savings, which is roughly 90% of our goal previously projected to be realized by 2025.

接下來，我們的成本削減計劃可望產生預期效益。自這項工作開始以來，我們已經節省了超過 1.35 億美元的營運費用，大約是我們先前預計在 2025 年實現的目標的 90%。

And finally, on Page 9. The Kemper Reciprocal exchange was established and began writing policies in Illinois in the third quarter. Over next year, we plan to populate the exchange by reinsuring select new business from Kemper legal entities and directly writing premium in the exchange. Growth is expected to ramp up as we receive approval to expand into new states.

最後，在第 9 頁。肯珀互惠交易所成立，並於第三季開始在伊利諾州制定政策。明年，我們計劃透過對 Kemper 法人實體的精選新業務進行再保險並直接在交易所寫入保費來填充交易所。隨著我們獲得擴展到新州的批准，預計成長將會加快。

We plan to host a special topic call during the first quarter of 2024 to disclose the reciprocal structure and financial reporting.

我們計劃在 2024 年第一季舉辦專題電話會議，揭露互惠結構和財務報告。

Moving to Page 10. Our insurance companies are well capitalized and have significant resources of liquidity. At the end of the quarter, we had $820 million of liquidity consisting of revolver capacity, intercompany lending capacity and holding company cash and investments. We expect parent liquidity to be bolstered by at least $250 million in the fourth quarter from our Bermuda optimization.

翻至第 10 頁。我們的保險公司資本充足，擁有大量流動資金。截至本季末，我們擁有 8.2 億美元的流動資金，包括循環能力、公司間借貸能力以及控股公司現金和投資。我們預計，透過百慕達優化，第四季母公司流動性將增加至少 2.5 億美元。

Our healthy liquidity balance enables us to support our operating subsidiaries and pay holding company dividends and interest payments. We continue to have the capital and liquidity needed to navigate this ongoing dynamic operating environment.

我們健康的流動性平衡使我們能夠支持我們的營運子公司並支付控股公司股息和利息。我們持續擁有應對當前動態營運環境所需的資本和流動性。

Moving to Page 11. Net investment income for the quarter was $107 million, and our pretax equivalent annualized book yield is 4.6%. Lastly, our approach to asset liability management continues to produce the intended results in a rising interest rate environment.

轉到第 11 頁。本季的淨投資收入為 1.07 億美元，我們的稅前等值年化帳面收益率為 4.6%。最後，我們的資產負債管理方法在利率上升的環境中持續產生預期結果。

I will now turn the call over to Matt to discuss the Specialty P&C business.

我現在將電話轉給馬特，討論特種財產險業務。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. Moving to Page 12 in our Specialty P&C business. We closed the third quarter with an underlying combined ratio improvement of 1.5 points sequentially and 6.3 points year-over-year. This was a result of incremental earned rate and ongoing underwriting actions, including new business restrictions, which was partly offset by severity and seasonality. And while loss trends remain elevated, they have stabilized.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。前往我們的特種財產保險業務第 12 頁。第三季結束時，我們的基本綜合成本率較上季提高了 1.5 個點，年比提高了 6.3 個點。這是盈利率增加和持續承保行動（包括新的業務限制）的結果，但嚴重程度和季節性因素部分抵消了這種影響。儘管損失趨勢仍然較高，但已經趨於穩定。

Earned rate increases forecast, and we expect it to accelerate in the fourth quarter and in 2024, due in part to the 30 points of California rate effective in August of this year. We anticipate the cumulative benefit of our profit actions to continue to exceed loss trends. We are observing hard market conditions, especially in California, as we renewed policies at higher rates, persistency remained in line with prior periods, creating favorable premium retention.

預期殖利率將上漲，我們預計第四季和 2024 年將加速上漲，部分原因是今年 8 月加州利率上調 30 個百分點。我們預期獲利行為的累積效益將持續超過虧損趨勢。我們正在觀察嚴峻的市場狀況，尤其是在加州，因為我們以更高的利率續保保單，持續性與前期保持一致，創造了有利的保費保留。

This quarter, we filed an additional 6 points of rate on 13% of the book. Going forward, we will make rate and segmentation filings across the business as needed. This quarter, Specialty P&C observed a moderate level of catastrophe losses, driven by tropical storms and wind hail events. Our commercial vehicle underwriting and rate actions are continuing to positively impact loss performance. In the third quarter, the underlying combined ratio with 93.6%, and we project continued profitability as pricing remains strong.

本季度，我們對這本書的 13% 追加了 6 個百分點的評級。展望未來，我們將根據需要在整個業務範圍內進行費率和細分備案。本季度，專業財產保險和意外傷害保險發現，受熱帶風暴和風冰雹事件的影響，災難損失處於中等水平。我們的商用車承保和費率行動繼續對損失績效產生積極影響。第三季度，基礎綜合成本率為 93.6%，由於定價依然強勁，我們預期將持續獲利。

As mentioned on the second quarter call, we are planning to selectively write a modest amount of incremental new business to test new customer cohort buying and clean behavior.

正如第二季電話會議中所提到的，我們計劃選擇性地編寫適量的增量新業務，以測試新客戶群的購買和清潔行為。

Moving to Page 13. We remain hyper focused on achieving target returns as cumulative actions will continue to outpace loss trend. In addition, enhanced tools and analytics will enable a thoughtful balancing of underwriting profitability and new business writings.

轉到第 13 頁。我們仍然高度關注實現目標回報，因為累積行動將繼續超過損失趨勢。此外，增強的工具和分析將實現承保盈利能力和新業務寫作之間的深思熟慮的平衡。

Finally, despite the ongoing dynamic environment, we anticipate achieving target profitability in '24. I will now turn the call over to Joe to cover the Life business.

最後，儘管環境持續不斷變化，我們預計將在 2024 年實現獲利目標。我現在將電話轉給喬，負責人壽業務。

Thank you, Matt. Turning to Page 14. Net operating income for our Life business was $15 million for the third quarter. Profitability improved over the prior year quarter and sequential quarter. Consumer demand for our products is strong, Life issued policies were up slightly and persistency remained stable. The Life business continues to generate strong returns on capital and distributable cash flow.

謝謝你，馬特。翻到第 14 頁。第三季我們的人壽業務淨營業收入為 1,500 萬美元。獲利能力較上年同期和上一季有所改善。消費者對我們產品的需求旺盛，壽險保單小幅上升，持續性維持穩定。人壽業務持續產生強勁的資本回報和可分配現金流。

Turning to Page 15. To reiterate our highlights for the quarter, one, we made solid progress on improving underlying combined and loss ratios. The California rate change for Specialty Auto, while an increasing impact over the next 2 quarters, reinforcing our confidence in returning to target margins. Two, our strategic initiatives are on schedule and expected to meet or exceed all financial targets. And three, we are reaffirming our 2024 financial guidance of delivering an ROE of 10% or greater.

翻到第 15 頁。重申本季的亮點，第一，我們在改善基本綜合比率和損失率方面取得了紮實進展。加州專業汽車費率變化雖然對未來兩季的影響越來越大，但增強了我們恢復目標利潤率的信心。第二，我們的策略舉措正在按計劃進行，預計將達到或超過所有財務目標。第三，我們重申 2024 年的財務指導，即實現 10% 或更高的 ROE。

In closing, I'd like to thank our entire Kemper team for their ongoing dedication and commitment to executing on our strategic priorities to generate consistent long-term shareholder value.

最後，我要感謝我們整個 Kemper 團隊的持續奉獻和承諾，執行我們的策略重點，以產生一致的長期股東價值。

Operator, I'll now turn it over to you for questions.

接線員，我現在將其交給您提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Greg Peters from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

I guess I'll start -- I have a couple of questions, and I'll start first with the top line and the policy count in your specialty book. It's declining substantially on a year-over-year basis and sequentially. Can you talk about how, as you deploy the rate increases, how your rate might be competitively disadvantaged or other factors that might be contributing to the drop off in policy count and written premium?

我想我會開始——我有幾個問題，我會先從您的專業書中的頂線和保單計數開始。年比和環比均大幅下降。您能否談談，當您部署費率上漲時，您的費率可能如何在競爭中處於劣勢，或者其他可能導致保單數量和承保保費下降的因素？

Sure, Greg. This is Joe. I'll take a start and Matt, you can jump in with more thoughts. This is largely driven, Greg, by our reduction in new business or our constraint on new business policies. Our retention rates are consistent and or even up slightly from where they were pre-pandemic levels. So this is driven by the new business curtailment. We will likely restart and start to reintegrate some of that new business, as Matt mentioned in the fourth quarter and into the first.

當然，格雷格。這是喬。我先開始，馬特，你可以加入更多的想法。格雷格，這在很大程度上是由我們減少新業務或對新業務政策的限製造成的。我們的保留率保持一致，甚至比疫情前的水平略有上升。所以這是由新的業務縮減所推動的。正如馬特在第四季和第一季中提到的那樣，我們可能會重新啟動並開始重新整合一些新業務。

We'll start slowly and test the system, if you will, and let another quarter of rate earn in and watch the underlying loss ratios improve. But this is largely driven with what we're seeing on our new business underwriting criteria constraining business rather than what we're seeing as a competitive problem that's driving lapse rates up.

如果您願意的話，我們將慢慢開始並測試系統，並讓另外四分之一的利率獲利並觀察潛在損失率的改善。但這很大程度上是由於我們在新業務核保標準上看到的限制業務的因素，而不是我們認為導致失誤率上升的競爭問題。

Just a quick add on to that. So as you know, nonstandard specialty customers turn at a bit of a higher rate. So naturally, as you don't put on new business, you're going to see policies in force leak a little bit more.

只需快速添加即可。如您所知，非標準專業客戶的回頭率要高一些。因此，很自然地，當你不開展新業務時，你會發現現行政策的洩漏會更多。

Just a quick comment on the rate, and it's stickiness. We are seeing policy persistency actually slightly elevated versus prior periods. So our renewal book as it's converting at higher written and earned rate levels is sticking at a higher rate. But as Joe mentioned, the drawdown in policies in force is really a function of the lack of new business that we have coming in at this point, and we'll balance that as we move forward over the next couple of months.

簡單評價一下比率，以及黏性。我們看到政策的持續性實際上比之前時期略有上升。因此，我們的續約書在以更高的書面率和賺取率水平進行轉換時，會保持更高的比率。但正如喬所提到的，現行政策的縮減實際上是由於我們目前缺乏新業務而造成的，我們將在接下來的幾個月中平衡這一點。

Okay. Just on -- you did mention in your answer in your prepared remarks, this desire to start growing certain cells or test the system. Just curious how that's going to look because kind of with your combined ratios -- reported combination ratios where you are, they probably want the margin to improve before you start writing a bunch of new business, but provide some additional perspective on that, Joe.

好的。就在您準備好的發言中的回答中確實提到了開始培養某些細胞或測試系統的願望。只是好奇這會是什麼樣子，因為根據你的綜合比率——報告的綜合比率，他們可能希望在你開始寫一堆新業務之前提高利潤率，但請提供一些額外的觀點，喬。

Sure, Greg. We're -- we did not say we were going to grow a bunch, and we did not say we were going to add a bunch of new business. Those were not remotely close to the words. We said we were going to start to write some modest amounts of incremental new business. We've got a very significant new business slowdown. If you were thinking about sort of a 2019 level, it's way off of that.

當然，格雷格。我們沒有說我們會成長很多業務，我們也沒有說我們會增加很多新業務。這些與文字相差甚遠。我們說過我們將開始編寫一些少量的增量新業務。我們的新業務大幅放緩。如果你考慮的是 2019 年的水平，那就大相逕庭了。

We're going to modestly add some new business at some point probably in the fourth quarter or the first quarter to test how the underwriting criteria as we take them off, what comes into the book of business, how that business is performing in its early stages, how those underwriting filters work.

我們將在第四季度或第一季的某個時候適度增加一些新業務，以測試我們取消承保標準時的情況、業務記錄中的內容以及該業務在早期的表現如何階段，這些核保過濾器如何運作。

One of the things we've talked about before, is when you have a market and a consistent view of carriers and underwriting appetite, you know how things are going to work. As the market hardens and you find people put up different underwriting restrictions or different price points, business will move around the marketplace differently. What we want to do is open the filters a little bit, and we believe we know what will happen when we do that, and we're going to test it. And so we're going to watch it every day, every week, every couple of weeks and see what's coming through in that process and did what come through -- what actually come through behave and look like from a profile perspective and a performance perspective, what we expected.

我們之前討論過的一件事是，當您擁有市場並對運營商和承保興趣有一致的看法時，您就知道事情將如何運作。隨著市場的硬化，你會發現人們提出了不同的承保限製或不同的價格點，業務將以不同的方式在市場上移動。我們想要做的就是稍微打開過濾器，我們相信我們知道這樣做時會發生什麼，並且我們將對其進行測試。因此，我們將每天、每週、每兩週觀察一次，看看這個過程中發生了什麼，做了什麼——從個人資料角度和績效角度來看，實際發生了什麼行為和外觀，我們所期望的。

And again, I've used this analogy. If you got a little bit of the stomach flu, you don't go back and eat everything you did the week before. You start out with the Brad diet of the bananas, rice, applesauce and toast and reprime the system, So what you'll see us doing is a restricted diet and restarting the process. We're going to do that while the combined ratios are continuing to improve. There will be a high probability in our mind that, that new business will perform well. It is at 100% of new business rates when it comes in, where some of our renewal book continues to have -- continues to have not renewed at the newer rates and we're watching the -- really the underlying loss ratio.

我又使用了這個比喻。如果你得了一點腸胃流感，你就不會回去吃前一周吃過的所有東西。你從香蕉、米飯、蘋果醬和吐司的布拉德飲食開始，然後重新啟動系統，所以你會看到我們所做的是限制飲食並重新啟動這個過程。我們將在綜合比率持續改善的同時做到這一點。我們認為，新業務很有可能表現良好。當它進來時，它是 100% 的新業務費率，我們的一些續訂帳簿仍然沒有以新的費率續訂，我們正在觀察真正的潛在損失率。

One of the things I think you've noticed, you've heard us talk about before -- think about expense ratios. Our expense ratio a little bit of is some decline in new business and partly because -- there's a decline in business overall and partly because there's new business fees that are charged as a contra expense, they're higher on new business than they are in renewals. So we're watching and testing that underlying loss ratio, knowing that as we reopen the new business, and that expense ratio reverts back to its norm that will hit the underlying target profitability.

我想你已經注意到了，你以前聽過我們談論過的一件事——想想費用比率。我們的費用率在一定程度上是因為新業務有所下降，部分原因是——整體業務有所下降，部分原因是新業務費用被作為備抵費用收取，新業務的費用比原來的費用要高續訂。因此，我們正在觀察和測試基本損失率，因為我們知道，當我們重新開放新業務時，費用率會恢復到正常水平，從而達到基本目標獲利能力。

So again, what I'd expect, if we roll forward 90 days and we're having a conversation about the fourth quarter, there is not going to be massive growth or a massive amount of new business in there. There'll be some incremental as we're testing it. And at the same time, we're watching what we expect to be changes in our underlying results and the underlying loss ratio.

所以，再次強調一下，如果我們向前推進 90 天，我們正在討論第四季度的情況，那麼那裡不會出現大規模增長或大量新業務。當我們測試它時，會有一些增量。同時，我們正在觀察我們預期的基本結果和基本損失率的變化。

Got it. Just a -- yes, it does. In your answer, I think you said some of the business that's renewing isn't renewing at the new rates? Is that right? Or did I miss...

知道了。只是——是的，確實如此。在您的回答中，我認為您說過一些正在續訂的業務並未按新費率續訂？是對的嗎？還是我錯過了...

As it renews, it gets the new rate, but our profitability right now doesn't -- some of the business hasn't renewed yet, so it's still at the old rates. So to speak of business, not all of it is at the higher rate level where if we started new business, all of it would be. So we actually think that by opening the filter slightly, the cohorts we're adding and the business we're adding should be better from a target return perspective on its lifetime base than the full in-force is right now.

當它更新時，它會得到新的費率，但我們現在的盈利能力卻沒有——一些業務還沒有更新，所以它仍然是舊的費率。就業務而言，並非所有業務都處於較高的利率水平，如果我們開始新業務，則所有業務都會處於較高的利率水平。因此，我們實際上認為，透過稍微打開過濾器，從目標回報的角度來看，我們正在添加的群組和我們正在添加的業務應該比現在的全部有效狀態更好。

Last question. I don't want to hog the floor. So the last question, I'm just going to pivot to the balance sheet, parent company liquidity. It's a source of concern in the marketplace when we see just on the 1 slide in your investor decks on Page 10, see how the parent company liquidity, the total has gone from $1.3 billion down to $821 million. And then just looking what these numbers were like in the second quarter, it was $970 million, down again to $821 million at the end of the third quarter.

最後一個問題。我不想霸佔地板。所以最後一個問題，我將轉向資產負債表、母公司流動性。當我們在第 10 頁的投資者幻燈片中看到母公司的流動性總額如何從 13 億美元下降到 8.21 億美元時，這引起了市場的關注。然後看看第二季的數字，結果為 9.7 億美元，第三季末再次下降至 8.21 億美元。

So as we look forward, because you keep reiterating that you're adequately capitalized. Can you sort of give us a road map of how you see uses of cash and how you see the balance sheet evolving say, over the next couple of quarters, that might be helpful.

因此，當我們展望未來時，因為您不斷重申您的資本充足。您能否給我們一個路線圖，說明您如何看待現金的使用以及您如何看待資產負債表的演變，例如在接下來的幾個季度，這可能會有所幫助。

Sure, Greg. This is Brad. You are correct. When you look at the end of 2022, we had $1.3-ish billion of cash that was elevated versus kind of historic levels. It was mainly related to the third quarter Bermuda optimization, where we took up a dividend from the life company. So it was elevated in at the end of last year. We look at it from Q2 to Q3, we're down about $150 million. The $150 million was split between a decline in holding company cash and liquidity and a reduction in our revolver capacity. So we're at $820 million approximately.

當然，格雷格。這是布拉德.你是對的。到 2022 年底，我們擁有約 13 億美元的現金，與歷史水準相比有所增加。這主要與第三季百慕達優化有關，我們從人壽公司獲得了股息。所以它在去年年底有所提高。我們從第二季到第三季來看，我們減少了大約 1.5 億美元。這 1.5 億美元用於控股公司現金和流動性的減少以及我們左輪手槍產能的減少。所以我們的估值約為 8.2 億美元。

As we look forward, we expect by the end of this year to be up another $250 million plus as it relates to -- that will increase due to the Bermuda optimization effort, you'll notice, if you look to the right of that slide on Slide 10, you'll see the RBC ratio is much higher than they have been historically. You'll see 1,000-plus RBC ratio for the life company.

展望未來，我們預計到今年年底將再增加 2.5 億美元以上，因為這將由於百慕達優化工作而增加，如果您查看該幻燈片的右側，您會注意到在幻燈片10 上，您會看到RBC 比率遠高於歷史水準。您將看到人壽公司的 RBC 比率超過 1,000。

And so we'll take that ordinary and extraordinary dividend this quarter, increasing the cash overall. So it will be $1 billion-plus in liquidity. As we think about our sources and uses over the next 12 months, typically, we spend about $150 million a year in cash, about $80 million in dividends, about $55 million in interest expense and other HoldCo expense items of $10 million to $15 million. So when you think about that $1 billion plus of liquidity, $150 million in usage, we covered multiple times, we can extend out for several years.

因此，我們將在本季收取普通和特別股息，從而增加現金總量。因此，流動性將超過 10 億美元。當我們考慮未來12 個月的來源和用途時，我們通常每年花費約1.5 億美元的現金、約8000 萬美元的股息、約5500 萬美元的利息支出以及1000 萬至1500 萬美元的其他控股公司支出專案.因此，當你考慮到 10 億美元以上的流動性、1.5 億美元的使用量時，我們多次覆蓋，我們可以延長幾年。

Fair enough. And do you have -- are you -- because of the several quarters of losses, I assume you are unable to dividend up any capital from any of the subs at this point? Is that correct? Or is there still a way to pull capital out of the subs if needed?

很公平。由於幾季的虧損，我認為您目前無法從任何子公司分紅任何資本嗎？那是對的嗎？或者如果需要的話還有辦法從潛艇中提取資金嗎？

We cancel pull all capital out of the subs, particularly the life company.

我們取消將所有資本撤出子公司，特別是人壽公司。

Yes, Greg, this is Joe. Just -- I wouldn't focus on the $1.3 billion. That was really an anomaly. And the $1.4 billion was a surge of earnings in the 2020 time period when people weren't driving and as Brad pointed out, you look at the RBC of [1,015] in the life company. In an ideal world, we would have actually moved that 250-plus before the end of the quarter, and it's a timing anomaly that it was -- it's going to be done in the fourth quarter rather than inside the third.

是的，格雷格，這是喬。只是——我不會關注 13 億美元。這確實是個反常現象。 14 億美元是 2020 年人們不開車的時期收入的激增，正如 Brad 指出的那樣，你看看人壽公司的 RBC [1,015]。在理想的情況下，我們實際上會在季度末之前完成 250 多個任務，但這是一個時間異常——它將在第四季度完成，而不是在第三季度內完成。

So I would definitely encourage you to look at those in combination in terms of where the cash is moving back and forth between them.

因此，我絕對會鼓勵您結合考慮這些因素，看看現金在它們之間來回流動。

Your next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

A couple of them here. First, just on the adverse reserve development. Brad, I know you said that you're confident you're in a good position now as a short-tail business, but if I look, you've had adverse development in your personal auto business for 4 quarters in a row, what gives you confidence that your personal auto was reserved adequately? Are you seeing trend kind of going down now? Are there certain things that give you more comfort? And then also on the reserve topic, if you could address commercial auto a little bit and what's going on there, I mean you grew very rapidly for the last 3 years. And I know other companies are having challenges with their commercial auto. So maybe your book is different or something, and that's why maybe you can address that as well.

這裡有幾個。首先，就儲備金的不利發展而言。布拉德，我知道你說過你有信心作為短尾業務現在處於有利地位，但如果我看一下，你的個人汽車業務已經連續四個季度逆勢發展，什麼讓您確信您的私人汽車已被充分預訂？現在您看到趨勢在下降嗎？是否有某些事情可以讓您感到更舒適？然後還有關於儲備主​​題，如果您能稍微談談商用汽車以及那裡發生的事情，我的意思是您在過去三年中增長非常迅速。我知道其他公司的商用車也面臨挑戰。所以也許你的書有所不同或其他什麼，這就是為什麼你也可以解決這個問題。

Yes. Let me -- well, let's do these in reverse, and I'll do a quick one on commercial vehicle and then Brad and I will tag team and maybe Matt as well on the PYD. The commercial vehicle, remember that, that was a $936 million underlying combined ratio. The $7 million is some BI DCC related items. It's just the defense and cost containment that's running underneath there. And it's still a very strong combined ratio there. If you look at it over any rolling 12-month period, you feel good about the underlying profitability there. So that one doesn't cause us a lot of angst. It really is just a little bit of DCC and cleaning up there.

是的。讓我——好吧，讓我們反過來做這些，我會在商用車上做一個快速的，然後布拉德和我會在 PYD 上標記團隊，也許還有馬特。請記住，商業車輛的基本綜合成本率為 9.36 億美元。這 700 萬美元是一些 BI DCC 相關項目。這只是其底層的防禦和成本控制。那裡的綜合比率仍然非常高。如果你觀察任意 12 個月的滾動週期，你就會對那裡的潛在獲利能力感到滿意。所以這不會帶給我們太多焦慮。這實際上只是一點點 DCC 和清理工作。

Brian, on the reserves, about our comfort there. A lot of the activity we saw that created prior year development this year was related to the second half of 2022. And so we have a short tail business. As we get further away from that, we're confident in what we have reserved. Additionally, related to PIP, we've seen increased frequency of claims.

布萊恩，關於預備隊，關於我們在那裡的舒適度。我們看到今年創造去年發展的許多活動都與 2022 年下半年有關。因此我們有短尾業務。當我們離​​這個目標越來越遠時，我們對我們所保留的東西充滿信心。此外，與 PIP 相關，我們發現索賠頻率增加。

We see higher severity -- when we think about what we're reserving today, we're reserving for not necessarily an acceleration of claims coming through, but a higher total claim, higher total amount of severity due to the increase in litigated claims. And we think we've captured at this point in time, everything that we can.

我們看到了更高的嚴重性——當我們考慮今天要保留的內容時，我們保留的不一定是索賠的加速，而是索賠總額的增加，由於訴訟索賠的增加，嚴重性總額也更高。我們認為此時此刻我們已經捕捉到了我們所能捕捉到的一切。

Now it is a management best estimate, but we think we've taken a practical approach to what we think has occurred not only over the previous years, but what we expect to occur going forward. Additionally, on PIP, we're not reflecting any of the benefits that maybe they are related to legislative changes in the third quarter or in the first quarter of 2023.

現在，這是管理層的最佳估計，但我們認為，我們已經採取了切實可行的方法，不僅對過去幾年發生的情況，而且對未來預期發生的情況也採取了實際的方法。此外，在 PIP 上，我們沒有反映任何可能與第三季或 2023 年第一季的立法變化相關的好處。

Got you. And then my second question, just going back to the capital situation at the holding company. I'm just curious if things don't start turning around here quickly, will that at all impact your ability to kind of roll out the reciprocal given that I know you're going to have to fund that with some preferred. And then I also know you mentioned in the release that you're going to reinsure some business in the reciprocal. Is that going to require some capital going in relatively soon?

明白你了。然後是我的第二個問題，回到控股公司的資本狀況。我只是很好奇，如果事情沒有很快開始好轉，這是否會影響你推出互惠的能力，因為我知道你將不得不用一些優先資金來資助它。然後我還知道您在新聞稿中提到您將在互惠中為某些業務提供再保險。這是否需要相對快速地投入一些資金？

Yes. It won't have any impact at all on the reciprocal. Let's remember this. We're not going to give any capital to the reciprocal. The exchange itself -- the capital there is either generated by the actual policyholders there with contributions or from earnings that come off of those policies or through surplus notes that even a surplus note is effectively alone. So to the extent we were assisting with that and let's -- I'm making up a number, let's say we gave a $20 million surplus note it will be the equivalent of us giving the exchange a $20 million loan, which it would be required to pay us back. That doesn't reduce our capital as the holding company or the parent in that process.

是的。它不會對倒數產生任何影響。讓我們記住這一點。我們不會為倒數提供任何資本。交易所本身－那裡的資本要麼是由實際保單持有人的繳款產生的，要麼是來自這些保單的收入，或者是透過盈餘票據產生的，即使是盈餘票據實際上也是單獨的。因此，就我們在這方面的協助而言，讓我們編造一個數字，假設我們提供了 2000 萬美元的盈餘票據，這相當於我們向交易所提供了 2000 萬美元的貸款，這是需要的回報我們。在此過程中，這並不會減少我們作為控股公司或母公司的資本。

Reinsuring business into the reciprocal. What we can do is we can take -- again, I'm making something up to be illustrative. If we decided that all new business effective January 15 written in state X was going to be reinsured into the reciprocal in Georgia.

再保險業務互惠互利。我們能做的是──再一次，我編了一些東西來說明。如果我們決定，自 1 月 15 日起在 X 州承保的所有新業務都將被再保險到喬治亞州的互惠保險中。

And starting on January 15, any new business written on Kemper paper would be reinsured over, that actually would become a capital relief for the parent company, Kemper because we wouldn't need to hold the capital for -- to be able to write that new business. It actually transfers premium into the reciprocal and the surplus note would be providing the capital for that.

從 1 月 15 日開始，任何寫在 Kemper 紙上的新業務都將得到再保險，這實際上將成為母公司 Kemper 的資本減免，因為我們不需要持有資本 - 能夠寫下新生意。它實際上將溢價轉入倒數，而盈餘票據將為此提供資本。

So it actually helps the capital situation not hurt and relieve the issue doesn't restrict us.

所以它實際上有助於資本狀況不受影響，緩解問題並不限制我們。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

That's right. Yes. The other thing I'd add, Brian, is I think what Joe is articulating here is it gives us actually more flexibility to know the capability or tool that we have at our disposal. Additionally, Kemper doesn't have to be the only one supplying the reciprocal exchange with surplus notes. Eventually, when it matures, we can go out and get third-party capital as well, which provides additional benefit and potential release for Kemper Corporation.

這是正確的。是的。布萊恩，我要補充的另一件事是，我認為喬在這裡闡述的是，它實際上使我們能夠更靈活地了解我們擁有的能力或工具。此外，肯珀不一定是唯一提供剩餘紙幣進行互惠兌換的公司。最終，當它成熟時，我們也可以出去獲得第三方資本，這為肯珀公司提供了額外的利益和潛在的釋放。

One last -- go ahead.

最後一件事——繼續吧。

Sorry. This is one of the reasons -- one of the reasons we're going to wind up spending some time with a special topic on the reciprocal in the first quarter. It's hard to do in an earnings call and one of these. We'll lay out a series of slides that sort of helps that. If you can imagine this, what will happen over time is as that business naturally transfers into the exchange you're going to see premium at Kemper Corporation go down, required capital at Kemper go down. Premium inside the exchange go up and required capital inside the exchange go up, we will never give shareholder capital to the exchange.

對不起。這是原因之一 - 我們最終將在第一季花一些時間討論倒數的特殊主題的原因之一。在財報電話會議和其中之一中很難做到這一點。我們將展示一系列對此有所幫助的幻燈片。如果您能想像這一點，隨著時間的推移，隨著該業務自然轉移到交易所，您將看到 Kemper Corporation 的溢價下降，Kemper 所需的資本下降。交易所內部的溢價上升，交易所內部所需的資本也上升，我們永遠不會給交易所股東資本。

So these things move back and forth, and it will make it a little more for a short period of time as it transitions a little complicated to read our financial statements because of those shifts. And that's why we're going to sit down in the first quarter as the numbers are starting to get a little bigger to show that and help everybody see how to model it. But it really actually does ultimately release capital as this process goes through.

因此，這些事情來回移動，這將使短時間內變得更加複雜，因為這些變化導致閱讀我們的財務報表變得有點複雜。這就是為什麼我們要在第一季坐下來，因為數字開始變得更大，以表明這一點並幫助每個人了解如何對其進行建模。但隨著這個過程的進行，它實際上最終確實釋放了資本。

Got you. And then one just quick last one here, Joe. You said target profitability at some point in 2024, I'm assuming it is second, third quarter, whatever it is. And then can you remind us what your target profitability is in your personal or specialty business?

明白你了。然後是最後一個，喬。你說目標是在 2024 年某個時候實現盈利，我假設是第二季度、第三季度，無論是什麼。那麼您能否提醒我們您的個人或專業業務的目標獲利能力是多少？

Yes. We don't typically give a target combined ratio. We will definitely be there to generate our guidance has provided you guys a view that we're going to be a 10% ROE next year or 10% plus next year. We've targeted a low double-digit ROE over the cycle. So we're obviously at the lower end of that range, but inside of that. To achieve that for the year, you would reasonably expect that the combined ratios are in the zone of our targets early on in the year. And if you just did a little math, and said if we had [100.5] underlying combined ratio in Specialty Auto in the third quarter, and we've tried to point out that, that has very little earned rate from California running through it. You could reasonably expect that, that earned rate will more than offset loss trend.

是的。我們通常不會給出目標綜合比率。我們一定會在那裡制定我們的指導意見，讓你們知道我們明年的淨資產回報率將達到 10% 或 10% 以上。我們的目標是在整個週期中實現較低的兩位數股本回報率。因此，我們顯然處於該範圍的下限，但仍在該範圍之內。為了在今年實現這一目標，您可以合理地預期綜合比率將在今年年初達到我們的目標範圍內。如果你做了一點數學計算，並說如果我們第三季度專業汽車的基礎綜合比率為[100.5]，並且我們試圖指出這一點，那麼加州的盈利率就非常低。您可以合理地預期，該賺取率將足以抵消損失趨勢。

And we'll continue to provide combined ratio improvement over the next couple of quarters. I think we've been very careful about that and describing that. So that should provide a plus. At the same time, we'll start writing a little bit more new business that will have its new business penalty and you will not see the combined ratio continue to improve way in excess of what might be a target that would produce that combined ratio. Those 2 will converge and will sort of hold our ground over the course of the year.

我們將在接下來的幾個季度繼續提高綜合比率。我認為我們對此和描述都非常謹慎。所以這應該是一個優點。同時，我們將開始編寫更多的新業務，這些業務將產生新的業務損失，您將不會看到綜合比率繼續改善超過可能產生該綜合比率的目標。這兩者將會融合，並在這一年中保持我們的立場。

Next question comes from Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

Could I ask you about the reduction in the revolver capacity? Was that just -- just can tell you what's driving that at the other piece of the holding company liquidity that's changing?

我可以問一下左輪手槍容量減少的情況嗎？這是否只是——只是可以告訴你是什麼推動了控股公司流動性的另一部分正在改變？

Yes, sure, Paul. We're hitting a covenant, a leverage covenant that's driving that and bringing that down. I'd highlight, we did -- we did our revolver last year. We upped it from $400 million to $600 million. And so we're slightly below the $400 million today. So if you look at it from a historical perspective and how we've actually shrunk in new business over the last year where we stand at $375 million roughly that's plenty of liquidity and no, no concern. I don't have any concerns with that.

是的，當然，保羅。我們正在達成一個契約，一個推動並降低其影響力的槓桿契約。我要強調的是，我們去年做了左輪手槍。我們將其從 4 億美元提高到 6 億美元。所以我們今天的營收略低於 4 億美元。因此，如果你從歷史的角度來看，以及去年我們的新業務實際上是如何萎縮的（大約 3.75 億美元），那麼流動性充足，不用擔心。我對此沒有任何擔憂。

Great. Different topic. The accounting for the preferred business, obviously, you're running (inaudible) this non-core line, but it doesn't look like it's being treated as discontinued operations. It looks like the revenues and expenses are all going through on a consolidated basis like they were before. You're just not breaking it out as a separate segment. Is that right? Am I getting that right? Or am I wrong, it should to discontinued operation. (inaudible) is below the line but it's not technically below the line, right?

偉大的。不同的主題。顯然，首選業務的會計處理，您正在運行（聽不清楚）這條非核心業務，但它看起來並不被視為已終止業務。看起來收入和支出都像以前一樣在合併的基礎上進行。您只是沒有將其分解為單獨的部分。是對的嗎？我說得對嗎？還是我錯了，應該停止營運。 （聽不清楚）低於該線，但從技術上講它並不低於該線，對嗎？

It technically is below the line. It's really a noncore operations. Discontinued ops would have to be something that's sold or we have a deal on the table, et cetera. So it's noncore operations. It's being wound down as planned. You can see that, I think it was $7 million from noncore operations this quarter. We'll try to provide as much information as possible to you. I think we also included about $14 million of catastrophe losses, et cetera, but you won't see it as a segment going forward.

從技術上講，它低於該線。這實際上是一個非核心操作。停止的操作必須是已出售的東西，或者我們有一筆交易擺在桌面上，等等。所以這是非核心操作。它正在按計劃逐步結束。你可以看到，我認為本季非核心業務有 700 萬美元。我們將盡力為您提供盡可能多的信息。我認為我們還包括了大約 1400 萬美元的災難損失等，但您不會將其視為未來的一部分。

Yes. But it will be in the consolidated number? Like this consolidated revenue, for example, will include premiums from the (inaudible) business.

是的。但它會在綜合數字中嗎？例如，像這樣的合併收入將包括來自（聽不清楚）業務的保費。

You won't see any of the detail from like a premium standpoint, a net investment income standpoint, any of those things, it all is getting lumped into 1 component in noncore operations.

從溢價的角度、淨投資收益的角度來看，你不會看到任何細節，所有這些都被集中到非核心業務的一個組成部分。

So think about...

所以想想...

I have to take a...

我必須採取...

Yes. So think about that segment. Previously Kemper preferred insurance, all of those components are being truncated to 1 line. And so you're seeing the net impact of that business performance there.

是的。所以考慮一下這個部分。以前 Kemper 首選保險，所有這些組件都被截斷為 1 行。因此，您會看到業務績效的淨影響。

I know you're wrong on this, Paul, I'm not an accountant, but I think part of the issue on the discontinued ops, adding on to Brad's. I know it's the sale or the exit, but if we're just shutting it down, we didn't exit all private passenger auto. So that was, I think, some of the advice we were getting is that's part of why we can't move it to discontinued ops.

我知道你在這一點上錯了，保羅，我不是會計師，但我認為部分問題與停止營運有關，加上布萊德的問題。我知道這是出售或退出，但如果我們只是關閉它，我們並沒有退出所有私人乘用車。所以，我認為，我們得到的一些建議是我們不能將其轉移到已停止運作的部分原因。

Which is fine. I'm just thinking about from a modeling perspective because if we modeling total revenue for the firm in a discontinued op situation, it wouldn't show up in total revenue, but if it was just considered noncore, like it sounds like you're doing -- it will show up in consolidated total revenue on your (inaudible) or I think that's right. And then...

這很好。我只是從建模的角度考慮，因為如果我們在停止營運的情況下對公司的總收入進行建模，它不會出現在總收入中，但如果它只是被認為是非核心，聽起來就像你是做 - 它將顯示在您的合併總收入中（聽不清楚），或者我認為這是正確的。進而...

We can definitely take it off the line, Paul, and help you with the modeling pieces of how it will come through.

保羅，我們絕對可以把它下線，並幫助你製作它如何完成的建模部分。

Last question, I'm giving this a lot. The variation of the 10%-plus ROE. Some of the pushback I'm getting is that, that may be sort of, I don't know if (inaudible) to communicate this or not essentially a reduction in the earnings expectations for next year because the capital is lower because of the losses we've incurred in this quarter, for example. Any thoughts on that? Do you think that's fair? Or the question is coming up quite a bit, so I thought I'd asked it on the call.

最後一個問題，我已經給了很多。 ROE 10%以上的變動。我收到的一些阻力是，這可能是一種，我不知道是否（聽不清楚）傳達這一點或實質上不會降低明年的盈利預期，因為資本因虧損而降低例如，我們本季度發生的費用。對此有什麼想法嗎？你認為這公平嗎？或者這個問題經常出現，所以我想我是在電話中問的。

Yes. I think Paul we're trying to get a little simpler in terms of how we communicate stuff. We've said that we're going to generate a 10% plus ROE. We were doing -- we did a preannouncement. So there's a limited ability in a press release to try to describe every nuance. And I understand there's a lot of attention on all of the pieces running around our business and where things are. And we're not trying to be -- we're trying to actually just sort of simply what we're doing. It's a basic GAAP ROE calculation. We're sticking with a 10% plus.

是的。我認為保羅我們正在努力讓我們的溝通方式變得更簡單。我們說過我們將實現 10% 以上的 ROE。我們正在做——我們做了一個預告。因此，新聞稿試圖描述每一個細微差別的能力有限。據我所知，我們業務的各個方面以及事物所在的位置都受到了很多關注。我們並不是想成為——我們實際上只是想簡單地做我們正在做的事情。這是基本的 GAAP ROE 計算。我們堅持 10% 以上。

And I understand the math you're describing in it. We weren't trying to hide something in there, we weren't trying to send a different signal. There's -- maybe it's because of Halloween, everybody is looking for ghosts, but it was trying to be a simple statement.

我理解你在其中描述的數學。我們並沒有試圖在那裡隱藏什麼東西，我們也沒有試圖發出不同的訊號。也許是因為萬聖節，每個人都在尋找鬼魂，但它試圖成為一個簡單的聲明。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Joe Lacher. Please proceed with your closing remarks.

（操作員說明） 目前沒有其他問題。喬·拉徹先生。請繼續您的結束語。

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody, for joining our call today and for the questions. And we look forward to speaking to you again in the fourth quarter -- or with the fourth quarter results. Thanks.

謝謝你，接線生。謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議並提出問題。我們期待在第四季或第四季的業績中再次與您交談。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。