WK Kellogg Co (KLG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Q4 W.K. Kellogg Co Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last one hour, including remarks by management and then a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). I'd now like to turn the call over to Karen Duke, Vice President, Planning and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Q4 W.K.家樂氏公司收益電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續一小時，包括管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我現在想將電話轉給規劃和投資者關係副總裁凱倫·杜克 (Karen Duke)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our fourth quarter results. I'm joined this morning by Gary Pilnick, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave McKinstray, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們第四季的業績。今天上午，我們的董事長兼執行長 Gary Pilnick 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長 Dave McKinstray。

Slide #2 shows our forward-looking statement disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for the company's future performance are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the factors listed on the disclaimer slide as well as those in our SEC filings, including the Risk Factors section.

投影片 #2 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天所做的某些陳述（例如對公司未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱免責聲明幻燈片上列出的因素以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的因素，包括風險因素部分。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing the respective non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results and for periods prior to the spin-off, are also presented on a stand-alone basis. You can find definitions of each non-GAAP measure and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendix to the slide presentation.

當我們今天討論我們的績效時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考相應的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標針對我們的公認會計準則業績中包含的某些項目以及分拆之前的期間進行了調整，這些指標也列在獨立基礎。您可以在我們的收益報告和投影片簡報的附錄中找到每個非 GAAP 指標的定義以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表。

I will now turn the call over to Gary.

我現在將把電話轉給加里。

Thanks, Karen, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to review our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. For today's call, I will provide a summary of our 2023 results, market performance, 2024 guidance and discuss the progress we're making on our overall strategy and strategic priorities. Across each topic, you will hear about the benefits we're already seeing from a more focused and integrated team. I will then turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Dave McKinstray, who will provide additional detail on our performance and guidance. We will close out the call with time for Q&A.

謝謝，凱倫，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們第四季和 2023 年全年的業績。在今天的電話會議中，我將總結我們 2023 年的業績、市場表現和 2024 年的指導，並討論我們在整體策略和策略重點方面的進展。在每個主題中，您都會了解到我們已經從更專注和整合的團隊中看到的好處。然後我會將電話轉給我們的財務長戴夫·麥金斯特雷 (Dave McKinstray)，他將提供有關我們的業績和指導的更多詳細資訊。我們將用問答時間結束通話。

Turning to Slide 4, these are our key messages for the day. Our commitment to fulfilling promises, our focus on execution and the impact of our Engage team. We introduced ourselves in August at Investor Day before we were a stand-alone public company. At that time, we provided our outlook for 2023 and 2024. In November, we provided 2023 guidance ahead of our August outlook. And today, I'm pleased to report we've delivered net sales at the high end of our guidance range and EBITDA margin above our guidance range. The team has visibility to effectively plan our business, they are executing that plan, and we are on solid footing as we look forward.

轉向幻燈片 4，這些是我們今天的關鍵訊息。我們致力於履行承諾，並專注於執行力以及參與團隊的影響力。在我們成為一家獨立的上市公司之前，我們在八月的投資者日進行了自我介紹。當時，我們提供了 2023 年和 2024 年的展望。今天，我很高興地向大家報告，我們的淨銷售額達到了指導範圍的高端，並且 EBITDA 利潤率高於我們的指導範圍。該團隊具有有效規劃我們業務的可見性，他們正在執行該計劃，並且我們在展望未來時已經站穩了腳跟。

At Investor Day, we also reviewed in detail each of our strategic priorities. As you would expect, we've been executing on these priorities, making meaningful enhancements across each of our marketing, sales and supply chain functions. During our early days, we are seeing the benefit of a more focused and integrated team. We are indeed driving an integrated commercial plan to win as we launched our new marketing model and stood up our single category dedicated sales force. We are also modernizing our supply chain and driving operating efficiencies. Better yet, we are executing end-to-end with improved connectivity across the enterprise. Underpinning all of this is our effort to unleashed an energized and winning culture, which is growing organically every day. Our people are engaged, focused and eager to drive the business forward, and that engagement extends to our customers, communities and other key stakeholders. This engagement is showing up in our performance. This confirms what we know to be true. We have the right team, the right strategy and the right model to deliver value for our stakeholders.

在投資者日，我們也詳細審查了我們的每項策略重點。正如您所期望的，我們一直在執行這些優先事項，對我們的每個行銷、銷售和供應鏈職能進行有意義的增強。在成立初期，我們看到了更專注和整合團隊的好處。隨著我們推出新的行銷模式並建立我們的單一類別專用銷售隊伍，我們確實正在推動一項綜合商業計劃以取得勝利。我們也正在實現供應鏈現代化並提高營運效率。更好的是，我們正在透過改善整個企業的連線來執行端到端。所有這一切的基礎是我們努力釋放充滿活力和獲勝的文化，這種文化每天都在有機發展。我們的員工積極參與、專注並渴望推動業務發展，而這種參與延伸到了我們的客戶、社區和其他主要利害關係人。這種參與度體現在我們的表現中。這證實了我們所知道的事實。我們擁有合適的團隊、正確的策略和正確的模式來為利害關係人創造價值。

Moving to Slide 5, let's review our financial results. Dave will cover the full financials and guidance in more detail, and I'll provide highlights here. For the full year 2023, net sales increased 2.8%, leading to a gross margin improvement of more than 400 basis points, with 290 basis points flowing through to EBITDA. Our performance reflects the benefit of positive price/mix, our recovery from the fire and strike and underlying business momentum. The year ended better than planned as we continued to improve our operational efficiency and maintain cost discipline.

轉到投影片 5，讓我們回顧一下我們的財務表現。戴夫將更詳細地介紹完整的財務狀況和指導，我將在這裡提供重點內容。 2023 年全年，淨銷售額成長 2.8%，毛利率提高超過 400 個基點，EBITDA 提高 290 個基點。我們的業績反映了積極的價格/組合的好處、我們從火災和罷工中恢復以及潛在的業務勢頭。由於我們繼續提高營運效率並維持成本控制，這一年的業績優於計劃。

We exceeded the EBITDA guidance we provided in November and hit the high end of our sales guidance. For 2024, our guidance calls for net sales growth in the range of negative 1% to positive 1% and EBITDA growth in the range of 3% to 5%. This EBITDA forecast is ahead of what we said at Investor Day and during the Q3 earnings call. We continue to be on track with key separation milestones on track with our strategic priorities, and we are on track to deliver our financial outlook.

我們超越了 11 月提供的 EBITDA 指導，並達到了銷售指導的上限。對於 2024 年，我們的指導要求淨銷售額成長在負 1% 到正 1% 範圍內，EBITDA 成長在 3% 到 5% 範圍內。這項 EBITDA 預測高於我們在投資者日和第三季財報電話會議上所說的預測。我們繼續按照我們的策略重點實現關鍵的分離里程碑，並且我們也有望實現我們的財務前景。

Now let's take a look at the Cereal category on Slide 6. cereal is a repertoire category, with a fast purchase cycle, nearly 50 million purchase decisions each week. Consumers typically have multiple boxes in their pantries and are looking for cereal to satisfy a variety of consumer needs and occasions. It's also a remarkably affordable category and delivers the type of value consumers are looking for as cereal, milk and fruit is less than $1 per ball.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 6 上的穀物類別。消費者通常在他們的儲藏室裡有多個盒子，並且正在尋找穀物食品來滿足各種消費者需求和場合。它也是一個非常實惠的類別，提供消費者所尋求的價值類型，因為穀物、牛奶和水果每球不到 1 美元。

Even with consumers under pressure and exhibiting value-seeking behavior, it's notable that the premium segment performed very well in 2023. Cereal is a dynamic category, serving many consumer preferences and delivers on taste, convenience, nutrition and affordability. In the U.S., the category grew 5% in 2023, mainly through positive price/mix, demonstrating the durable nature of the category. These are a few of the many reasons we are so very excited about the cereal category.

儘管消費者面臨壓力並表現出追求價值的行為，但值得注意的是，高端細分市場在2023 年的表現仍然非常出色。 、便利性、營養和實惠性。在美國，該類別在 2023 年增長了 5%，主要是透過積極的價格/組合，展示了該類別的耐用性。這些是我們對穀類產品如此興奮的眾多原因中的幾個。

Now let's look at how our business is performing on Slide 7. For the year, we grew U.S. retail dollars at 6.3%, leading to market share growth of 40 basis points. Full year share was 27.8%, which represents a nearly 260-point improvement from our low point in 2022. Our performance for the year was broad-based across our portfolio and builds on our recovery from the fire and strike as we regained share on our core six brands while executing the spin.

現在讓我們看看幻燈片 7 上我們的業務表現如何。全年份額為27.8%，比2022 年的低點提高了近260 點。重新獲得了市場份額在執行旋轉的同時核心六個品牌。

In Canada, we're the market leader at 37.9% and improved our position 160 basis points in 2023, highlighted by our performance in December when we achieved a 40% share. This is testament to the relevance of our brands and our team's ability to execute an exciting commercial plan. We're pleased with our recovery to date and have further opportunity ahead of us.

在加拿大，我們以 37.9% 的市佔率處於市場領先地位，並在 2023 年將我們的地位提高了 160 個基點，這從我們 12 月取得 40% 份額的表現中可以看出。這證明了我們品牌的相關性以及我們團隊執行令人興奮的商業計劃的能力。我們對迄今為止的恢復情況感到滿意，並且前面還有更多的機會。

Now let's look at how the execution of our strategy is underway. On Page 8, let me first remind you of our strategic priorities. Our integrated commercial plan to win brings together our demand-creating infrastructure with our in-store activation. This priority allows us to operate more seamlessly end-to-end with greater agility.

現在讓我們看看我們的策略執行情況如何。在第 8 頁，讓我先提醒您我們的策略重點。我們的綜合商業計劃將我們創造需求的基礎設施與我們的店內活化結合在一起。這項優先事項使我們能夠以更大的敏捷性更加無縫地進行端到端操作。

Next, we'll update you on our second strategic pillar, modernizing our supply chain. I'll talk about how we're working with key stakeholders to improve plant productivity and economics as well as taking action to improve our operating efficiencies through new ways of working. Our third strategic pillar is to unleash an energized and winning culture. Our people are the most valuable asset and I could not be more proud of how they're showing up and driving meaningful change.

接下來，我們將向您介紹我們的第二個策略支柱的最新情況，即供應鏈現代化。我將討論我們如何與主要利益相關者合作來提高工廠生產力和經濟效益，以及如何採取行動透過新的工作方式來提高我們的營運效率。我們的第三個策略支柱是釋放充滿活力和獲勝的文化。我們的員工是最寶貴的資產，我對他們的表現和推動有意義的變革感到無比自豪。

Now let's take a look in more detail at how our integrated commercial plan to win is coming to life. On Slide 9, let's start with the first half 2024 innovation. We all know innovation is critical to the cereal category. It delivers consumer excitement, grows the basket and drives points of distribution. We have a strong record of cereal innovation, including the introduction of three top innovation items last year. That same team is now part of W.K. They continue to lead our commercial organization and developed another strong innovation plan for 2024.

現在讓我們更詳細地看看我們的綜合商業計劃是如何實現的。在投影片 9 上，讓我們從 2024 年上半年的創新開始。眾所周知，創新對於穀物食品類別至關重要。它讓消費者興奮，增加購物籃並推動分銷點的發展。我們在穀物創新方面擁有良好的記錄，包括去年推出的三個頂級創新項目。該團隊現在是 W.K. 的一部分。他們繼續領導我們的商業組織，並為 2024 年制定了另一個強有力的創新計劃。

What's different about this year's innovation is that it includes the launch of two new premium brands, MOUTH OFF and EXTRA. MOUTH OFF delivers against current food trends with 22 grams of protein and zero sugar. EXTRA is a taste-led granola. These brands have been launched in an agile way, leveraging social media to drive awareness. As we have discussed, the premium segment is growing, and we have been participating with Special K Zero and Special K High Protein. We're excited to add MOUTH OFF and EXTRA to our premium offerings this year.

今年創新的不同之處在於，它推出了兩個新的高端品牌：MOUTH OFF 和 EXTRA。 MOUTH OFF 提供 22 克蛋白質和零糖，與當前的食品趨勢相反。 EXTRA 是以口味為主的格蘭諾拉麥片。這些品牌以敏捷的方式推出，利用社群媒體來提高知名度。正如我們所討論的，高端市場正在成長，我們一直在參與 Special K Zero 和 Special K High Protein。我們很高興今年能在我們的優質產品中加入 MOUTH OFF 和 EXTRA。

The next element of our innovation is expanding appeal of our existing brands across cohorts. As we reignite Kashi, we launched Smoothie Loops, a cereal with all family appeal. Our innovation on brand and Special K drives excitement and focuses on the nutrition-seeking consumer.

我們創新的下一個要素是擴大我們現有品牌在人群中的吸引力。當我們重新點燃喀什之時，我們推出了 Smoothie Loops，這是一款適合所有家庭的穀物麥片。我們在品牌和 Special K 方面的創新激發了人們的興趣，並專注於尋求營養的消費者。

And finally, we continue to expand in Occasions, introducing mini snax. We know cereal is consumed during a variety of occasions, having discussed our recent cereal-for-dinner campaign and that growing occasion. Snacking is yet another moment where cereal hits the mark and these innovations drive right at it with our brands and unique food.

最後，我們繼續擴展場合，推出迷你 snax。我們知道穀物在多種場合被消費，並討論了我們最近的晚餐穀物麥片活動以及這一日益增長的場合。零食是穀類食品的另一個亮點，這些創新透過我們的品牌和獨特的食品推動了這一趨勢。

This is just the beginning. We have more innovation coming later this year that will tap into seasonal excitement and cultural relevance. It's worth noting that all of this was achieved while preparing for the spin throughout 2023, a good example of the focus and agility of the team.

這只是個開始。今年晚些時候，我們將推出更多創新，這些創新將利用季節性興奮和文化相關性。值得注意的是，所有這一切都是在為 2023 年的旋轉做準備時實現的，這是團隊專注和敏捷的一個很好的例子。

Another example of agility to quickly activate end-to-end is on Slide 10, and that was the recent collab with the University of Michigan to celebrate the College Football National Championship. In just three days, we went from idea to product and at midnight, immediately following the Wolverine's victory in the game, we launched a Froot Loops National Championship box, which sold out in a matter of hours, and we had to produce even more. This is a chance for us to connect with our Michigan community. And importantly, we generated significant media value from the coverage, garnering close to 100 million impressions. In fact, you could see that Toucan Sam was invited to the championship parade in Ann Arbor and received a Victor's welcome from fans chanting his name alone the parade route. This is a great example of the power and cultural relevance of our brands.

快速啟動端到端敏捷性的另一個例子是幻燈片 10，這是最近與密西根大學合作慶祝大學橄欖球全國錦標賽的結果。在短短三天內，我們從想法變成了產品，在午夜，金剛狼在比賽中獲勝後，我們立即推出了Froot Loops 全國冠軍盒裝，幾小時內就賣光了，我們還必須生產更多。這是我們與密西根社區建立聯繫的機會。重要的是，我們從報道中創造了巨大的媒體價值，獲得了近 1 億的展示次數。事實上，你可以看到巨嘴鳥山姆被邀請參加安娜堡的冠軍遊行，並受到了球迷們維克多般的歡迎，他們在遊行路線上高喊著他的名字。這是我們品牌的力量和文化相關性的一個很好的例子。

Next, on Slide 11, we'll discuss how revenue growth management is strategically designed to deliver on our financial commitments. Our 2024 RGM activities are focused on three main areas: premiumization, which we discussed previously, promo effectiveness and price pack architecture or PPA. Promotional effectiveness is about designing and executing our promotional activities to drive better returns. The integration of our teams across marketing, sales and supply chain gives us increased visibility, which allows us to more optimally design and plan.

接下來，在投影片 11 上，我們將討論如何策略性地設計收入成長管理以兌現我們的財務承諾。我們 2024 年的 RGM 活動專注於三個主要領域：我們之前討論過的高端化、促銷效果和價格包架構或 PPA。促銷有效性是指設計和執行我們的促銷活動以帶來更好的回報。我們的行銷、銷售和供應鏈團隊的整合提高了我們的可見性，使我們能夠更優化地進行設計和規劃。

Through our dedicated sales force, we can also execute those promotions better and our single category focus means we could drive better merchandising and amplify promotions in-store.

透過我們專門的銷售團隊，我們還可以更好地執行這些促銷活動，而我們對單一類別的關注意味著我們可以推動更好的銷售並擴大店內促銷活動。

Finally, PPA. We have launched new standardized pack sizes across multiple brands to address both customer and consumer preferences, ensuring we have the right pack at the right price in the right place. This also drives more standardization in our business, which creates efficiency within our supply chain and allow customers to offer the type of unique value their consumers are looking for. This was a huge undertaking and the team is successfully executing this transition. In summary, we're moving fast to drive our financial performance through innovation, improving promotional effectiveness and an RGM plan designed to create value.

最後，PPA。我們在多個品牌中推出了新的標準化包裝尺寸，以滿足客戶和消費者的喜好，確保我們在正確的地方以正確的價格提供正確的包裝。這也推動了我們業務的標準化，從而提高了我們供應鏈的效率，並允許客戶提供其消費者正在尋找的獨特價值。這是一項艱鉅的任務，團隊正在成功執行這項轉變。總之，我們正在快速行動，透過創新、提高促銷效果和旨在創造價值的 RGM 計劃來推動我們的財務表現。

Now turning to Slide 12, let's discuss how we're advancing our priority of modernizing our supply chain and how we're improving plant economics through new ways of working. During the Q3 earnings call, we told you we're already working with key stakeholders in certain locations to improve plant productivity and economics. In Q4, we were excited to announce that in partnership with our Battle Creek plant employees and their union, the City of Battle Creek and the State of Michigan we unlock the solution where our business, our people and our community win. We are now working collaboratively with our people to begin implementing high-performing work systems, the operating model utilized in our most efficient plants. As a reminder, high-performing work systems resulted in more agile, capable and engaged workforce, a disciplined approach to problem solving and consistent governance, all of which drives improved performance. We all know this model works as we see it every day where it's already implemented effectively.

現在轉向投影片 12，讓我們討論一下我們如何推進供應鏈現代化的優先事項，以及如何透過新的工作方式提高工廠經濟效益。在第三季的財報電話會議上，我們告訴您，我們已經與某些地區的主要利害關係人合作，以提高工廠的生產力和經濟效益。在第四季度，我們很高興地宣布，我們與巴特爾克里克工廠的員工及其工會、巴特爾克里克市和密西根州合作，推出了讓我們的企業、我們的員工和我們的社區共贏的解決方案。我們現在正在與我們的員工合作，開始實施高效能工作系統，這是我們最高效的工廠所採用的營運模式。需要提醒的是，高績效的工作系統可以帶來更敏捷、有能力和敬業的員工隊伍、解決問題的嚴格方法和一致的治理，所有這些都可以推動績效的提升。我們都知道這個模型是有效的，正如我們每天所看到的那樣，它已經得到了有效的實施。

Also important, the city and state provided meaningful financial support to help offset the cost of the investment in our Battle Creek plant. This is a good example of the way we're going to work with our people and our communities to drive business forward and improve productivity, efficiency and engagement.

同樣重要的是，市和州提供了有意義的財政支持，以幫助抵消我們巴特爾克里克工廠的投資成本。這是我們與員工和社區合作推動業務發展並提高生產力、效率和參與度的一個很好的例子。

Another step in modernizing our supply chain is to improve the ongoing efficiency and effectiveness of the network. On Slide 13, you can see our customer service levels and the trajectory of our improvement, a key step in strengthening trust with customers. Customer service is about discipline, focus and execution. That is a key to our success, and you could see the impact the WK team is making already. In Q4, we achieved our highest level of customer service since March of 2020 and we even saw a meaningful improvement versus Q3 2023. We've been able to reach these levels by improving plant reliability and efficiency.

供應鏈現代化的另一個步驟是提高網路的持續效率和效能。在投影片 13 上，您可以看到我們的客戶服務水準和改善軌跡，這是加強客戶信任的關鍵一步。客戶服務關乎紀律、專注和執行。這是我們成功的關鍵，您可以看到 WK 團隊已經產生的影響。在第四季度，我們實現了自2020 年3 月以來的最高水準的客戶服務，與2023 年第三季度相比，我們甚至看到了有意義的改進。水平。

Overall Equipment Effectiveness, or OEE, improved in Q4 across our plants, leading to a more reliable product supply. It's early days and we're just getting started. These are the type of benefits we expect to drive into the future as we modernize our supply chain.

我們工廠的整體設備效率 (OEE) 在第四季度有所改善，從而實現了更可靠的產品供應。現在還為時過早，我們才剛開始。這些是我們期望在供應鏈現代化過程中為未來帶來的好處。

Finally, on Slide 14, let's see how it all comes together. We speak about how we'll focus, integrate and invest. We're a focused company. Everything is in service of cereal. That focus resulted in the right strategy and we have the right team with the right capabilities and resources to execute our plan. We are an integrated company, driving greater visibility across the enterprise which allows us to make quicker decisions and rapidly bring ideas to life. And that focus and integration informs how we invest in our infrastructure, capabilities and most importantly, our people. When you bring all of this together, our performance improves. We drive better business outcomes, and we gain momentum.

最後，在投影片 14 上，讓我們看看這一切是如何組合在一起的。我們討論如何聚焦、整合和投資。我們是一家專注的公司。一切都是為了麥片服務。這種專注導致了正確的策略，我們擁有合適的團隊，擁有合適的能力和資源來執行我們的計劃。我們是一家綜合公司，提高整個企業的可見性，使我們能夠更快地做出決策並迅速將想法變為現實。這種關注和整合決定了我們如何投資我們的基礎設施、能力，最重要的是我們的員工。當您將所有這些結合在一起時，我們的績效就會提高。我們推動更好的業務成果，並獲得動力。

Now I'll hand the call over to Dave to take you through our financial results and outlook.

現在我將把電話轉給戴夫，向您介紹我們的財務表現和前景。

Thank you, Gary. Today, I will focus my comments on our fourth quarter financial results and the related drivers. My commentary will be on a stand-alone adjusted basis, as we believe that provides the best representation of our business going forward. Further detail of these measures and reconciliations have been provided in today's press release and the appendix of this presentation.

謝謝你，加里。今天，我將重點放在我們第四季的財務表現和相關驅動因素。我的評論將在獨立調整的基礎上進行，因為我們相信這可以最好地代表我們未來的業務。今天的新聞稿和本簡報的附錄中提供了這些措施和調節的更多細節。

To begin, I'm pleased with how we executed our plan and delivered results ahead of expectations. Since relaunching the business in the second half of 2022, we've reshaped the timing of our brand investments. Those investments were diligently planned week by week, and we saw the benefits through improved ROI throughout 2023.

首先，我對我們執行計劃並提前交付結果的方式感到滿意。自 2022 年下半年重新啟動業務以來，我們重新調整了品牌投資的時機。這些投資是每週精心規劃的，我們透過 2023 年投資回報率的提高看到了收益。

Now looking at our results on Slide 16, you will see that net sales for the fourth quarter were $651 million, a 2.7% decline versus the prior year period. This performance reflects positive price of 7.5%, offset by volume declines of 10.1% related to, among other things, rising price elasticities due to the timing of our price increases. We spoke about this dynamic on our third quarter call and said at the time that we expect it to continue into Q4 and early Q1.

現在查看投影片 16 上的結果，您會發現第四季的淨銷售額為 6.51 億美元，比去年同期下降 2.7%。這一業績反映了 7.5% 的正價格，但被銷量下降 10.1% 所抵消，其中銷量下降主要與我們提價時機導致的價格彈性上升有關。我們在第三季電話會議上談到了這一動態，並表示我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季和第一季初。

From a brand's perspective, Rice Krispies and Corn Flakes benefit from seasonal recipe execution and our Canadian business continued its strong performance in the quarter behind brands like Frosted Flakes and Vector. For the full year, we delivered net sales of $2.74 billion, which was at the high end of our guidance, a 2.8% increase versus the prior year, which lagged our end market growth of greater than 6% due to the impact of lapping a retailer inventory rebuild in the front half of 2022.

從品牌的角度來看，脆米花和玉米片受益於季節性配方執行，我們的加拿大業務在本季度繼續保持強勁表現，落後於 Frosted Flakes 和 Vector 等品牌。全年，我們實現了 27.4 億美元的淨銷售額，處於我們指導的最高水平，比上年增長 2.8%，但由於受新冠疫情影響，我們的終端市場增長落後了 6% 以上。在2022 年上半年重建。

EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $53 million, a 43.2% increase versus the prior year quarter driven by the benefit of price/mix, improved productivity and optimize commercial investment. Our significant EBITDA growth is a result of our improved supply chain execution and focus on operational discipline that Gary outlined. Full year EBITDA of $258 million is a 50% increase versus the prior year and reflects the benefit of lapping the fire and strike in the first half and positive price/mix. Again, our increased focus and improved execution allowed us to deliver EBITDA ahead of our guidance and creates a strong foundation to build from in 2024.

第四季的 EBITDA 為 5,300 萬美元，比去年同期成長 43.2%，這得益於價格/組合、生產力提高和商業投資優化。我們的 EBITDA 顯著成長得益於我們改進的供應鏈執行力以及對加里概述的營運紀律的關注。全年 EBITDA 為 2.58 億美元，比上年增長 50%，反映了上半年火災和罷工的好處以及積極的價格/組合。同樣，我們更專注和改進的執行力使我們能夠提前實現 EBITDA，並為 2024 年的發展奠定堅實的基礎。

Turning to Slide 17. I will now focus on our operational highlights. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 29.2%, a 300 basis point improvement versus the prior year. This improvement was a result of our balanced commercial approach and operational efficiencies within our supply chain. For the full year, gross margin improved 410 basis points to 28.9%. This improvement was primarily driven by positive price/mix and further recovery from fire and strike. As a reminder, our full year gross margin also benefited from a onetime insurance recoupment of $16 million in Q2 of 2023, which was worth 60 basis points of gross margin for the year.

轉向投影片 17。第四季毛利率為 29.2%，比去年同期提高 300 個基點。這項改進是我們平衡的商業方法和供應鏈內營運效率的結果。全年毛利率提高 410 個基點至 28.9%。這一改善主要是由於積極的價格/組合以及火災和罷工的進一步恢復推動的。提醒一下，我們的全年毛利率也受益於 2023 年第二季 1,600 萬美元的一次性保險賠償，相當於當年毛利率的 60 個基點。

EBITDA margin in Q4 was 8.2%, a 270 basis point improvement versus the prior year period, driven by the flow-through of gross margin improvements and the rephasing of our brand-building investments to quarters with higher levels of ROI earlier in the year and the impact of incentive compensation. For the full year, we delivered EBITDA margin above the high end of our guidance range at 9.4%, a 290 basis point improvement. This improvement reflects the drivers I mentioned earlier in gross margin and EBITDA. Looking forward, we expect gross margin to continue to be the primary driver of our EBITDA improvement.

第四季的EBITDA 利潤率為8.2%，比去年同期提高了270 個基點，這是由於毛利率改善的流動以及我們的品牌建設投資重新調整到今年早些時候投資回報率水平較高的季度，以及激勵薪酬的影響。全年的 EBITDA 利潤率高於指導範圍的上限 9.4%，提高了 290 個基點。這項改善反映了我之前提到的毛利率和 EBITDA 驅動因素。展望未來，我們預計毛利率將繼續成為 EBITDA 改善的主要驅動力。

Looking at our below-the-line items, interest expense in Q4 was $10 million and other income was $9 million. Our adjusted effective tax rate for full year 2023 was 24.9%. For 2024, we expect our full year effective tax to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

從我們的線下項目來看，第四季的利息支出為 1000 萬美元，其他收入為 900 萬美元。我們 2023 年全年調整後的有效稅率為 24.9%。 2024 年，我們預計全年有效稅率將在 24% 至 25% 之間。

Turning now to Slide 18. For the year, our business has performed as we expected, and we continue to show steady improvement. We showed this slide at the Q3 call and have updated to show our trailing 12-month performance through the end of Q4. We're pleased to see the continued trajectory improvement. Looking at this slide, you can see we are consistently delivering net sales in the $2.7 billion range. Our stable top line performance has been a catalyst for our margin improvement and has been enabled by our improving supply reliability.

現在轉向幻燈片 18。我們在第三季電話會議上展示了這張投影片，並已更新以顯示截至第四季末我們過去 12 個月的業績。我們很高興看到軌跡的持續改善。查看這張投影片，您可以看到我們的淨銷售額始終保持在 27 億美元範圍內。我們穩定的營收績效一直是我們利潤率改善的催化劑，並且是透過我們不斷提高的供應可靠性實現的。

Next, you'll see that since Q1, we've seen meaningful increase in gross margin. We've gained 210 basis points and in Q4, achieved the highest level of gross margin of the last 12 quarters. This improvement is primarily related to driving operational efficiencies within our supply chain and from positive price/mix from our revenue growth management initiatives.

接下來，您會看到自第一季以來，我們看到毛利率顯著增加。我們的毛利率在第四季度增長了 210 個基點，達到了過去 12 個季度以來的最高水平。這項改進主要與提高我們供應鏈內的營運效率以及我們的收入成長管理計劃的積極價格/組合有關。

Finally, looking at EBITDA margin, you can see that our gross margin improvement is largely flowing through and profitability has significantly improved, moving from 7.8% to 9.4%, 160-point increase. This is the type of improvement we expect as we finished 2023.

最後，看 EBITDA 利潤率，可以看到我們的毛利率改善很大程度上在流動，盈利能力顯著提高，從 7.8% 上升到 9.4%，增長了 160 個點。這是我們在 2023 年結束時預期的改進類型。

Next, I'll discuss our debt position on Slide 19. We ended the year with $499 million of debt and cash and equivalents of $89 million, resulting in net debt of $410 million. As we said on our Q3 call, at the completion of the spin, we drew $500 million on our term loan A and $164 million on our revolver to fund the dividend back to Kellanova. These debt levels were temporarily elevated as core working capital had not yet reached run rate levels at the time of the spin. Working capital largely normalized throughout Q4, and as a result, we exited Q4 at targeted debt levels and with zero balance on our revolving credit facility. We ended 2023 with a leverage ratio of 1.6x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and expect to end 2024 with leverage of approximately 1.8 to 2x adjusted EBITDA. Increased leverage in 2024 is due to onetime investments of approximately $80 million to stand up the company as we work towards TSA exit. This leverage ratio excludes the impact of investment to modernize our supply chain, which we'll provide an update on later this year.

接下來，我將在投影片 19 上討論我們的債務狀況。正如我們在第三季電話會議上所說，在分拆完成後，我們從定期貸款 A 中提取了 5 億美元，從左輪手槍中提取了 1.64 億美元，以將股息返還給 Kellanova。由於核心營運資本在分拆時尚未達到運轉率水平，因此這些債務水平暫時升高。整個第四季度的營運資本基本上正常化，因此，我們以目標債務水平退出第四季度，循環信貸額度餘額為零。截至 2023 年末，我們的槓桿率為淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 的 1.6 倍，預計到 2024 年末，槓桿率為約 1.8 至 2 倍調整後 EBITDA。 2024 年槓桿率的增加是由於我們在努力退出 TSA 的過程中一次性投資了約 8000 萬美元來支撐公司。該槓桿率不包括供應鏈現代化投資的影響，我們將在今年稍後提供最新情況。

In 2024, we'll continue to generate positive underlying cash flow. However, we expect our total cash -- free cash flow to be slightly negative due to the onetime investments in standing up the company. Similar to what I noted prior in the leverage discussion, this cash flow excludes the impact of investment in modernizing our supply chain.

2024 年，我們將繼續產生正的基礎現金流。然而，由於對公司的支持進行了一次性投資，我們預計我們的總現金——自由現金流將略有負值。與我之前在槓桿討論中指出的類似，該現金流不包括對供應鏈現代化投資的影響。

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 20. Based on the momentum in our business and confidence we have in our plan, we are providing EBITDA guidance ahead of the outlook we provided at Q3. We expect 2024 full year net sales growth to be in the range of negative 1% to positive 1%. Due to our revenue growth management initiatives, we expect full year price to be positive low single digits and volume to decline low single digits. For 2024, EBITDA, we expect growth in the range of 3% to 5%, which reflects EBITDA dollar delivery of between $265 million and $270 million. This is an increase versus the $255 million to $265 million range we provided at Investor Day and reaffirmed on our Q3 call.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 20 的展望。我們預計 2024 年全年淨銷售額成長將在負 1% 至正 1% 之間。由於我們的營收成長管理舉措，我們預計全年價格將呈正低個位數，銷售量將下降低個位數。對於 2024 年，我們預期 EBITDA 將成長 3% 至 5%，反映出 EBITDA 美元交付額在 2.65 億美元至 2.7 億美元之間。與我們在投資者日提供並在第三季電話會議上重申的 2.55 億至 2.65 億美元範圍相比，這一數字有所增加。

Importantly, this EBITDA growth includes the lapping of the benefit of the onetime insurance recoupment in Q2 of 2023 of $16 million. For the full year 2024, we expect total interest expense of approximately $40 million and other income to be approximately $25 million. Other income includes a benefit of pension income of $45 million, which is a noncash item. Similar to our leverage outlook, I covered on the previous slide, this interest expense excludes any impact of increased debt to fund our supply chain modernization.

重要的是，這一 EBITDA 成長包括 2023 年第二季 1,600 萬美元的一次性保險賠償收益。 2024 年全年，我們預計利息支出總額約為 4,000 萬美元，其他收入約為 2,500 萬美元。其他收入包括 4500 萬美元的退休金收入福利，這是非現金項目。與我在上一張投影片中介紹的槓桿前景類似，該利息支出不包括為供應鏈現代化提供資金的債務增加的任何影響。

And now, I will hand it back over to Gary to close out the call.

現在，我將把它交還給加里以結束通話。

Thank you, Dave. As we said on the top of the call and what we hope you heard today is that we are fulfilling promises that we are focused on execution and that our engagement is driving impact. 2023 was a transformational year for W.K. as we stood up an independent company and delivered strong performance aligned to our strategic priorities and our expectations. I would like to thank our team of more than 3,000 colleagues for their efforts and contributions to a successful year. In 2024, you can expect more of the same as we focus on delivering our financial model, bringing even more excitement to the cereal category and executing like a soon-to-be 118-year-old start-up. I'll now open the call to Q&A.

謝謝你，戴夫。正如我們在電話會議中所說的那樣，我們希望您今天聽到的是，我們正在履行承諾，我們專注於執行，我們的參與正在推動影響。 2023 年對 W.K. 來說是轉型的一年。因為我們成立了一家獨立的公司，並提供了符合我們的策略重點和期望的強勁業績。我要感謝我們 3,000 多名同事的團隊為成功的一年所做的努力和貢獻。到 2024 年，您可以期待更多相同的事情，因為我們專注於提供我們的財務模型，為穀物食品類別帶來更多興奮，並像即將擁有 118 年歷史的新創公司一樣執行。我現在將打開問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾（Andrew Lazar）。

So to start off, maybe, I was hoping you could talk a bit about what you're seeing in terms of the overall cereal category at this stage. One of your competitors, I think, recently said something to the effect that maybe towards the end of the quarter, the declines in the cereal category had, maybe, started to moderate a bit. I'm wondering if you're seeing sort of something similar. And if so, if you think it's attributable to maybe some one-off factors, weather, et cetera, or maybe the start of something a little more sustainable?

因此，首先，也許我希望您能談談您在現階段對整個穀物類別的看法。我認為，你們的一位競爭對手最近說了一些話，大意是，也許到了本季末，穀物食品類別的下降可能已經開始放緩。我想知道你是否看到類似的東西。如果是這樣，您是否認為這可能歸因於一些一次性因素、天氣等，或者可能是一些更可持續的事情的開始？

It's a great question. Thanks for asking that, Andrew. So when we think about the category, we -- what we're seeing in the category is, it's quite stable right now. The category has a lot of tailwinds to it. And when overall, when you zoom out, when you look at it over a quarter, over the last year, even as we enter 2024, we're seeing a good stability across the category. And we're one of the beneficiaries of that.

這是一個很好的問題。謝謝你這麼問，安德魯。因此，當我們考慮該類別時，我們在該類別中看到的是，它現在相當穩定。該類別有很多有利因素。總體而言，當你縮小視野時，當你審視去年四分之一以上的情況時，即使我們進入 2024 年，我們也看到整個類別的穩定性良好。我們是其中的受益者之一。

So -- and we think there's a variety of reasons. You talked about whether you talked about other things where we go to on the top of that would be the consumers under pressure. This category is quite affordable. We talked in our prepared remarks, Andrew, about how a bowl of cereal with milk and fruit is under $1, you could see people trading into consumers trading into our category so we do think there's a lot of tailwinds for the category, but we're actually quite pleased with the way the category is performing.

所以——我們認為有多種原因。您談到了您是否談到了我們最重要的其他事情，即消費者面臨的壓力。這個類別是相當實惠的。安德魯，我們在準備好的發言中談到一碗加牛奶和水果的麥片粥如何低於1 美元，你可以看到人們交易到消費者交易到我們的類別，所以我們確實認為該類別有很多順風車，但我們'事實上，我們對該類別的表現非常滿意。

And then maybe I was hoping you can provide just a bit more color on how you see the shape of the year playing out on the top line. I think on the 3Q call and then today as well, you stated you expected maybe still some volume pressure in the first part of the year, partly given some of the timing of your pricing actions versus others. So I was hoping you could get into a little bit more detail on kind of you see the first part of the year playing out in terms of that price/mix versus volume combination.

然後也許我希望您能提供更多的資訊來說明您如何看待今年的營收狀況。我認為在第三季電話會議以及今天的電話會議上，您表示預計今年上半年可能仍會出現一些成交量壓力，部分原因是考慮到您相對於其他公司的定價行動的時間安排。因此，我希望您能更詳細地了解今年上半年的價格/組合與銷售組合的情況。

Yes, Andrew, I think that's quite fair. And that was what we talked about in Q3, so I appreciate you raising that. The first thing I think we would say is, and because you mentioned Q3, I'll mention it here. The business is performing as we expected. We forecasted the business. It's playing out as we thought. I give the team a lot of credit for the way they're forecasting. And you're exactly right. We had talked about what the balance of the year would look like. Now we're careful, we don't give quarterly guidance. But you're exactly right. We talked about the impact on our business of lapping pricing. Our last major pricing action of last year happened in March so we're going to be experiencing that and managing through that as the year began. So I think you're right about the pressure that you just mentioned.

是的，安德魯，我認為這很公平。這就是我們在第三季討論的內容，所以我很感謝您提出這一點。我想我們要說的第一件事是，因為你提到了第三季度，所以我會在這裡提到它。該業務的表現符合我們的預期。我們預測了業務。事情正在按照我們的想法進行。我對團隊的預測方式給予高度讚揚。你是完全正確的。我們已經討論過今年剩下的時間會是什麼樣子。現在我們很謹慎，我們不提供季度指導。但你是完全正確的。我們討論了研磨定價對我們業務的影響。我們去年的最後一次重大定價行動發生在三月份，因此我們將在今年開始時經歷並管理它。所以我認為你剛才提到的壓力是對的。

The other thing that's worth mentioning is in Q2 that we had a onetime benefit from the insurance payment last year of $16 million. So that's also something that we'll be lapping when we get to Q2. But overall, we feel good about what the shape of the year looks like. And one thing that we did mention that's worth mentioning here about volume was in Q3, we talked about the narrowing of the gap between dollars and volume. We saw that happen between Q3 and Q4. If you look in the public data for P1 for January, it's happening even more and you add to that a stable category, we actually think that's quite good for the category, good for our business and good for our people.

另一件值得一提的是，在第二季度，我們從去年的保險付款中獲得了 1,600 萬美元的一次性福利。因此，這也是我們進入第二季時將要進行的事情。但總體而言，我們對今年的情況感覺良好。我們確實提到值得一提的關於成交量的一件事是在第三季度，我們談到了美元和成交量之間差距的縮小。我們看到這種情況發生在第三季和第四季之間。如果您查看1 月份P1 的公共數據，您會發現這種情況發生得更多，並且您將其添加到一個穩定的類別中，我們實際上認為這對該類別非常有利，對我們的業務有利，對我們的員工有利。

Our next question comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

Congratulations on the improving profitability. I guess my question is on reinvestment this year. You talked about a couple of things, your efforts to improve service levels and supply chain. In the past, you've talked about efforts in merchandising and perhaps that would require some in-store trade and you talked about a couple of brand launches and then, of course, there's advertising. Could you just talk about where the best dollars spent will be for Kellogg this year and longer term and where you are reinvesting some of this profitability to get the flywheel going?

祝賀盈利能力不斷提高。我想我的問題是關於今年的再投資。您談到了一些事情，即您為提高服務水準和供應鏈所做的努力。過去，您談到了商品推銷的努力，也許這需要一些店內貿易，您談到了幾個品牌的發布，當然還有廣告。您能否談談家樂氏今年和長期內最好的資金花在哪裡，以及您將把部分盈利能力再投資到哪里以推動飛輪運轉？

David, I appreciate the commentary, and we are very proud of the results. This is our first quarter as a stand-alone company. So on behalf of the entire team, we appreciate the congratulations you just provided. And when we think about where we're investing, we're investing across the enterprise. As a new company as we're standing up, there's a couple of different areas that we're going to focus on, and our P&L and our budget were fully loaded to do so. So you would start with supply chain. You're already starting to see the benefits in our performance in our P&L. You heard us talk about what's happening with K's sale, with OEE. That is the very beginning of the impact that our team is making. Sherry Brice is our Head of Supply Chain, the work that she and her team are doing across the network is already starting to pay dividends. We'll continue to invest there as part of our program to modernize our supply chain, and that's investing capital as well as building capability.

大衛，我很欣賞你的評論，我們對結果感到非常自豪。這是我們作為獨立公司的第一季。因此，我們代表整個團隊，感謝您剛才提供的祝賀。當我們考慮投資方向時，我們是在整個企業範圍內進行投資。作為一家剛成立的新公司，我們將專注於幾個不同的領域，而我們的損益表和預算已充分滿足這些要求。所以你應該從供應鏈開始。您已經開始在損益表中看到我們的績效帶來的好處。您聽到我們談論 K 的銷售和 OEE 的情況。這是我們團隊正在產生的影響的開始。 Sherry Brice 是我們的供應鏈主管，她和她的團隊在整個網路上所做的工作已經開始帶來回報。作為供應鏈現代化計劃的一部分，我們將繼續在那裡投資，即投資資本和能力建設。

You add to that what we're doing on the commercial side. What we like to talk about is when we're talking about in-market pressure, it's about returns, it's about ROI. How do we make sure that we're in market that we're balancing profitability as well as volume? We'll continue to do that. And as the year moves forward, we're constantly looking for other places to invest. And when we find areas to invest, they get a great return, we will certainly do that. But, David, our budget is fully loaded. We have the investment dollars that we need to drive this business going forward and into 2024.

您也可以添加我們在商業方面所做的事情。我們喜歡談論的是，當我們談論市場壓力時，它是關於回報，它是關於投資回報率。我們如何確保我們在市場上平衡獲利能力和銷售？我們將繼續這樣做。隨著時間的推移，我們不斷尋找其他投資場所。當我們找到投資領域時，他們會獲得豐厚的回報，我們一定會這樣做。但是，大衛，我們的預算已經滿了。我們擁有推動這項業務向前發展並持續到 2024 年所需的投資。

And just a quick follow-up on that. Just if we're tracking these data, as you know, we look at scanner data, and everyone looks at scanner data closely in recent four weeks would be down a couple of percent. Your guidance is a little bit better than that. Is there a road map or timing that you think you're going to see more improvement and what metrics would you have us focusing on?

對此進行快速跟進。如您所知，如果我們追蹤這些數據，我們會查看掃描器數據，每個人在最近四週內仔細查看掃描器數據都會下降幾個百分點。你的指導比那好一點。您認為您會看到更多改進的路線圖或時間安排以及您希望我們專注於哪些指標？

Yes, David, we look at those metrics, too. So we appreciate the question. I'm really glad you asked it because it lets me reinforce the unique circumstances that we are working through. We talk about two different things that we were lapping in Q4, and that was the relaunch of the business, the previous year as well as the lapping of pricing. You might recall that we took pricing, we took it later than a lot of the other manufacturers in our category. That's because we were still recovering from the fire and the strike. Our last substantial price increase was in March of 2023 so the beginning of the year, we're still working our way through that. You see it in price realization in the data so that's what's happening early on. Again, we feel very good about our overall guidance and the shape of the year, but that's a unique situation that's happening right now.

是的，大衛，我們也關注這些指標。所以我們很欣賞這個問題。我真的很高興你問這個問題，因為它讓我強化了我們正在經歷的獨特環境。我們談論了我們在第四季度進行的兩件不同的事情，那就是前一年業務的重新啟動以及定價的調整。您可能還記得我們定價，我們比我們類別中的許多其他製造商定價晚。那是因為我們仍在從火災和罷工中恢復過來。我們上次大幅漲價是在 2023 年 3 月，所以今年年初，我們仍在努力解決這個問題。你可以在數據中的價格實現中看到它，所以這就是早期發生的情況。同樣，我們對今年的整體指導和情況感到非常滿意，但這是目前正在發生的獨特情況。

Our next question comes from Max Gumport of BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

I was hoping you could provide a bit more color on the drivers of the better-than-expected gross margin expansion in 4Q. I think I heard you mentioned a balanced commercial approach and operational efficiencies. And then how this informs your outlook for '24 and gross margin?

我希望您能就第四季度毛利率擴張優於預期的驅動因素提供更多資訊。我想我聽到你提到了平衡的商業方法和營運效率。那麼這對您對 '24 和毛利率的展望有何影響？

So I think if you look back at 2023, and we had the slide that really showed the progression throughout the year. And we talked about the front half of the year really benefiting from the lapping of the relaunch of the business. We talked about the price realization that played through to gross margin and the benefit of that price/mix. The other thing Gary talked about as we move to the latter part of the year, that focus on operational discipline, and Gary mentioned the metric OEE, we're really focused on making sure that we're running our plants efficiently, effectively, making sure that we're maximizing output, getting the right food and all those things are really playing through just that focus has really helped in the back part of the year.

所以我認為，如果你回顧 2023 年，我們的幻燈片確實顯示了全年的進展。我們談到今年上半年確實受益於業務的重新啟動。我們討論了影響毛利率的價格實現以及該價格/組合的好處。當我們進入今年下半年時，加里談到的另一件事是專注於營運紀律，加里提到了 OEE 指標，我們真正關注的是確保我們的工廠高效、有效地運行，使確保我們最大限度地提高產量，獲得正確的食物，所有這些事情都在真正發揮作用，這一點在今年下半年確實有所幫助。

And yes, we did talk about the optimization of our promotional plan in the market, really balancing our returns against profitability and volume. We talked about that dynamic on the Q3 call, and we continue to do that through Q4. So those are really the big drivers as we move through 2023. And as we think forward to 2024, that's where our focus is. It's continuing to drive that ROI. It's continuing to drive that discipline throughout not just our plants, but the totality of our supply chain. And again, as Gary mentioned, we're planning on making sequential improvements in gross margin into 2024 despite that onetime lapping impact of the insurance recoupment. So we're pleased with our performance here as we finished out the year and as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, how that sets us up for 2024.

是的，我們確實討論了市場促銷計劃的優化，真正平衡我們的回報與盈利能力和銷售量。我們在第三季的電話會議上討論了這一動態，並且我們在第四季度繼續這樣做。因此，這些確實是我們邁向 2023 年的重要驅動力。它正在繼續推動投資回報。它不僅在我們的工廠，而且在我們的整個供應鏈中繼續推動這項紀律。正如加里所提到的，我們計劃在 2024 年之前繼續提高毛利率，儘管保險賠償會產生一次性影響。因此，我們對今年結束時的表現感到滿意，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，這為我們的 2024 年做好了準備。

And on that as well, I saw the case fill improvement that you're making progress on. That was nice to see, but you are still well below historical levels and the broader packaged food industry seems to be catching up to, I'd say, more normal levels already. So I'd imagine that there's more improvement you can make on this metric in '24, and that could open up some opportunities on gross margin and the broader supply chain. Can you just talk more about what that might open up for '24, maybe even '25?

在這一點上，我也看到了您正在取得進展的案例填充改進。很高興看到這一點，但仍遠低於歷史水平，而且更廣泛的包裝食品行業似乎已經趕上了，我想說，更正常的水平。因此，我認為 24 年您可以在這一指標上做出更多改進，這可能會在毛利率和更廣泛的供應鏈方面帶來一些機會。您能多談談 24 年，甚至 25 年可能會發生什麼事嗎？

So you're right. We're not yet to our goal. We had that outlined on the slide in the prepared remarks. We are happy with the improvements we made, and we've made them in a relatively short amount of time here. But as we head into 2024, we're aware that there's opportunity. And again, that operational discipline. It's not just on the cost side, but it's making sure that we're having and producing the right product and making sure that we're filling orders and servicing our customers at a level that they expect and frankly, that we expect.

所以你是對的。我們還沒有達到我們的目標。我們在準備好的演講中的幻燈片上概述了這一點。我們對所做的改進感到滿意，並且我們在相對較短的時間內完成了這些改進。但當我們邁入 2024 年時，我們意識到機會無所不在。再說一遍，操作紀律。這不僅僅是在成本方面，而是確保我們擁有並生產正確的產品，並確保我們按照客戶期望的水平（坦白說，也是我們期望的水平）履行訂單並為客戶提供服務。

Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

I just wanted to dig into your outlook for price/mix to be up low single digits in 2024. And how you're thinking about the balance between price realization with increasing promotional activity. To what extent does the low single-digit pricing growth reflects the carryover benefit of pricing from last year? And can you elaborate on the RGM initiatives that would contribute to your price realization in '24?

我只是想深入了解您對 2024 年價格/組合成長低個位數的展望。低個位數的定價成長在多大程度上反映了去年定價的結轉效益？您能否詳細說明將有助於您在 24 年實現價格的 RGM 舉措？

So I think Gary mentioned that we'll lap our last list price increase at the beginning of March. So there is that impact in there, at least for a couple of months of the year of the list price lapping Gary did talk then further about our other RGM initiatives that we're focused on in 2024. Those being promo optimization, I'll start there, and that's something that's really a continuation from 2023, and that's the focus on ROI making sure that we're getting maximum dollars for every dollar that we're putting into the marketplace. The second is our price pack architecture initiative, again, really focused on getting the right product, the right sizes and the right customers for our consumers to enjoy all of our foods.

所以我認為加里提到我們將在三月初完成最後一次標價上漲。因此，至少在標價上漲當年的幾個月裡，確實存在這種影響，加里隨後進一步談到了我們在 2024 年重點關注的其他 RGM 舉措。 2023 年的延續，重點是投資報酬率，確保我們投入市場的每一美元都能獲得最大的回報。第二個是我們的價格包架構計劃，再次強調，真正專注於獲得正確的產品、正確的尺寸和正確的客戶，讓我們的消費者享受我們所有的食物。

And then the last one, Gary mentioned is the premiumization. We're excited about our two new innovation launches that Gary mentioned, MOUTH OFF and EXTRA and those just mechanically through that premium offering drive price realization through the P&L. So those are the factors and I highlighted what we expect kind of the shape. Is that, yes, volumes will decline low single digits, and then we'll realize price from there to get back within our guidance range.

加里提到的最後一個是高端化。我們對加里提到的兩項新的創新產品感到興奮，即 MOUTH OFF 和 EXTRA，而這些產品只是透過溢價產品機械地透過損益表驅動價格實現。這些就是因素，我強調了我們期望的形狀。是的，是的，成交量將下降個位數，然後我們將意識到價格將回到我們的指導範圍內。

And just on the competitive dynamics in the category, can you talk about what you're observing? And do you anticipate gaining market share in cereal this year?

關於該類別的競爭動態，您能談談您所觀察到的情況嗎？您預計今年穀物食品的市場份額會增加嗎？

When we think about what's happening in the competitive set in the category. So if you zoom out, when we think about the pressure in the market right now, we think about promotion and investment in the key category. So Dave talked about our approach, which is we focus on returns, we focus on balancing, volume as well as profitability. And this has been going on in the cereal category for years. It is worth noting, it's good for the category. Well-designed promotions really drive category performance. And in fact, it has some of the best lifts in retail when it's done well. And when we take a look at the data, Pam, we're not seeing anything particularly unusual. We sort of go back in time and see compared to previous periods. And there's nothing unusual in there. And in terms of growing market share, we've talked about winning in the market and winning as a company. And what makes our model work is a stable top line so our profit expansion can rattle through the P&L. We also think part of that is winning market share over time. And that is certainly one of our many goals.

當我們思考該類別的競爭環境中發生的事情。因此，如果你縮小視野，當我們考慮目前市場的壓力時，我們會考慮關鍵品類的促銷和投資。所以戴夫談到了我們的方法，即我們專注於回報，我們專注於平衡、數量和盈利能力。這種情況在穀物食品類別中已持續多年。值得注意的是，這對該類別有利。精心設計的促銷活動確實可以提升品類表現。事實上，如果做得好的話，它擁有零售業最好的電梯。帕姆，當我們查看數據時，我們沒有看到任何特別不尋常的東西。我們有點回到過去，看看與之前時期的比較。而且裡面並沒有什麼異常的地方。在不斷增長的市場份額方面，我們談到了贏得市場和贏得公司的勝利。我們的模型之所以有效，是因為收入穩定，因此我們的利潤擴張可以影響損益表。我們也認為，其中一部分是隨著時間的推移贏得市場份額。這當然是我們的眾多目標之一。

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的彼得·加爾博。

Dave, maybe just two really quick cleanup ones and then Gary, a broader one. Dave, if you strip out the -- I think you said it was 60 basis points of benefit from insurance to the base gross margin for '23. Just as a building block, what's your base inflation that you're baking in for 2024 on the COGS line? And then also if you had a CapEx number you could help us with on the free capital side.

戴夫，也許只有兩個非常快速的清理，然後是加里，一個更廣泛的清理。戴夫，如果你剔除——我想你說過保險收益比 23 年的基本毛利率高出 60 個基點。作為一個構建模組，您在 COGS 線上預計 2024 年的基本通膨是多少？如果您有資本支出數字，您也可以在自由資本方面為我們提供協助。

Yes. Thanks, Peter. So a couple of things that I'd start with. On the -- sorry, your first question was on inflation so let's start there. On the inflation side of things, I think, generally speaking, we've seen what I would call more of a stable environment at these elevated price levels. So if you look at aggregate, we're not seeing a significant amount of deflation in 2023 or in our outlook in 2024. If you go into specific areas of our cost structure or our basket of goods, if you will. There's a couple of areas we're seeing the deflation. You guys can see it, namely corn, wheat, but there's a couple of others that had been what I would call resiliently high and have actually worked the other way. Those being sugar and rice is a couple of examples. And we saw some of the CPI data even as recently this morning where we're continuing to see inflation in the marketplace, be relatively sticky is a word I would say. But again, I'd characterize it for us more of a stabilization at these higher levels.

是的。謝謝，彼得。我將從以下幾件事開始。關於——抱歉，你的第一個問題是關於通貨膨脹，所以讓我們從這裡開始。在通貨膨脹方面，我認為，一般來說，在這些高價格水準上，我們已經看到了我所說的更穩定的環境。因此，如果你從總體上看，我們在2023 年或2024 年的展望中都不會看到嚴重的通貨緊縮。的特定領域。我們在幾個領域看到了通貨緊縮。你們可以看到它，即玉米、小麥，但還有其他一些我稱之為彈性高的作物，但實際上卻以相反的方式發揮作用。糖和米就是幾個例子。即使在今天早上，我們也看到了一些消費者物價指數數據，我們繼續看到市場上的通貨膨脹，我想說的是相對黏性。但我再說一遍，我認為它更多是在這些更高水平上的穩定。

If we then think about our capital plan for next year, we're targeting the 2.5% of net sales as a base CapEx. As you think about that $80 million that I overviewed to stand up, there will be some CapEx in that $80 million. So it will be split between onetime cost and CapEx, probably a little bit heavier on CapEx in that $80 million.

如果我們考慮明年的資本計劃，我們的目標是將淨銷售額的 2.5% 作為基本資本支出。當你想到我概述的 8000 萬美元時，這 8000 萬美元中將會有一些資本支出。因此，它將分為一次性成本和資本支出，這 8,000 萬美元的資本支出可能會稍重一些。

So those are the two pieces. To be clear, Peter, we have about a 2.5% of net sales base capital plan. And then that $80 million will be split between CapEx and onetime cost, but a little bit heavier on CapEx.

這就是這兩個部分。需要明確的是，Peter，我們有大約 2.5% 的淨銷售額基礎資本計劃。然後這 8000 萬美元將在資本支出和一次性成本之間分配，但資本支出稍重。

And then Gary, just one thing that's come up in a bunch of other calls this earning season, particularly around the volume discussion has been a shift back to more away-from-home occasions. And while that has with a negative impact on the volume or on the tonnage side, it's having a positive impact on mix, like single-serve items, that sort of thing. Just curious, like, are you observing that at all? It's been something we've seen across other categories. So I would just love your perspective on that.

然後，加里，在本財報季的許多其他電話會議中，特別是圍繞銷量的討論中出現的一件事就是轉向更多的遠離家鄉的場合。雖然這對數量或噸位產生了負面影響，但它對混合產生了積極影響，例如單份食品之類的事情。只是好奇，例如，你有觀察到這一點嗎？我們在其他類別中也看到過這種情況。所以我很喜歡你對此的看法。

Yes. What you're getting at is occasions for us. And when we think about our business, we think you have it exactly right. We think there's an opportunity for us. When you think away from home, you think single-serve. When we think about cereal, we clearly are the #1 choice for breakfast. We've talked about cereal for dinner, but we also believe there's real opportunity in snacking. So that we do believe is a tailwind for us. You saw in the innovation comments that we had that we're leaning into that right now. So is it a trend? I don't know, but we think it's a real opportunity for us one way or another, and we're going to be getting after it.

是的。您所得到的正是我們的機會。當我們思考我們的業務時，我們認為您的做法完全正確。我們認為我們有機會。當您想到遠離家鄉時，您會想到單份服務。當我們想到麥片時，我們顯然是早餐的第一選擇。我們已經討論過晚餐吃麥片，但我們也相信零食確實有機會。所以我們確實相信這對我們來說是順風。您在我們的創新評論中看到，我們現在正在傾向於這一點。那麼這是一種趨勢嗎？我不知道，但我們認為這對我們來說是一個真正的機會，我們將抓住它。

Our next question comes from Matt Smith of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的馬特史密斯。

I had a follow-up question on the CapEx outlook for the business. You've stripped out the additional capital spend associated with supply chain modernization in the guidance that you've given us. And from a high level, given the faster progress against EBITDA and some of the underlying operational efficiencies you're seeing, does that affect your outlook for the $400 million to $500 million of investment for that supply chain modernization over time to unlock the margin expansion? Is there an opportunity for that to move lower? Any comments you can make there would be appreciated.

我對業務的資本支出前景有一個後續問題。您在給我們的指南中剔除了與供應鏈現代化相關的額外資本支出。從較高的層面來看，考慮到EBITDA 的更快進展以及您所看到的一些基本營運效率，這是否會影響您對供應鏈現代化投資4 億至5 億美元的前景，以實現利潤率擴張？有機會走低嗎？如果您能在那裡提出任何意見，我們將不勝感激。

No, I'd say that everything that we've said to date on our supply chain modernization program still holds. So we haven't changed any of the direction there. I would say, and as I said in the prepared remarks, we'll come back later this year with further detail and be precise more on timing and all those elements. But so far, what we've said, the date still holds.

不，我想說的是，我們迄今為止就供應鏈現代化計劃所說的一切仍然有效。所以我們沒有改變任何方向。我想說，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們將在今年稍後回來提供更多細節，並在時間表和所有這些要素上更加精確。但到目前為止，我們所說的，這個日期仍然有效。

As a follow-up to your commentary around the investments you're making to stand up a stand-alone company, is there any phasing to the coming off of TSAs between you and Kellanova that we need to be aware of? Do you still plan to be on a significant amount of TSA support exiting '24? Or do you expect to lower your exposure there pretty meaningfully this year?

作為您對建立獨立公司所進行的投資的評論的後續內容，您和 Kellanova 之間的 TSA 的終止是否有任何我們需要注意的階段？您是否仍計劃在 24 年後繼續獲得 TSA 的大量支持？或者你預計今年會大幅降低你在那裡的風險敞口？

Yes. In how I would characterize as a phased exit. So we'll (inaudible) exiting elements to the TSA in 2024, and some will be totally off of in 2024 as we move into the back half of the year. Other ones will be in through 2025. So it's not a clean hey, here is the end of it, but rather a phased exit really over the next, call it, 18-ish months from here.

是的。我將其描述為分階段退出。因此，我們將（聽不清楚）在 2024 年從 TSA 中刪除一些內容，有些內容將在 2024 年下半年完全取消。其他的將持續到 2025 年。 所以這不是一個乾淨的嘿，這就是它的結束，而是在接下來的 18 個月左右的時間里分階段退出。

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow of TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

With all the discussion about revenue growth management, and mix improvement through premiumization, I could -- it's not just you, it's also your competitors to using that strategy. Is it likely that this will lead to kind of like a low single-digit volume decline for the category for the next few years? And maybe that's okay because it's mix positive and it's margin positive. Is that a scenario that you have thought through as you go through your supply chain revitalization planning? And is it fair to say that's contemplated as a possibility in your margin targets as you go forward?

透過所有關於收入成長管理和透過高端化進行組合改進的討論，我可以——不僅僅是你，還有你的競爭對手使用該策略。這是否有可能導致未來幾年該類別的銷售量出現低個位數的下降？也許這沒關係，因為它是積極的混合，它的利潤也是積極的。您在製定供應鏈振興計畫時是否考慮過這種情況？可以公平地說，隨著您的發展，這被視為您的利潤目標的可能性嗎？

It's a fair question, Robert. The way we look at it is, look, we talked about price realization, you identified the different ways we're going about it. And there are just certain outcomes that come from those activities. There's outcomes that come from a bunch of other activities we have as well. But yes, we have taken into consideration that impact would be, how that impacts our supply chain, how that impacts our business, it's all baked into our overall plan. So yes, we certainly did consider that as we plan the business going forward.

這是一個公平的問題，羅伯特。我們看待它的方式是，看，我們討論了價格實現，你確定了我們處理它的不同方式。這些活動只會產生某些結果。我們也進行了一系列其他活動，並取得了一些成果。但是，是的，我們已經考慮到了這種影響，這將如何影響我們的供應鏈，這將如何影響我們的業務，這些都已納入我們的整體計劃中。所以，是的，我們在規劃未來業務時確實考慮了這一點。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Robert Dickerson。

Look, just given there have been a lot of questions around more singular category, fairly comprehensive. I just wanted to touch quickly on some of the below-the-line items on guidance. Like I realize kind of what the net debt level is year-end '23, but clearly, right, there were incremental capital raise needs for the supply chain improvements that you've been speaking about since the Investor Day. So maybe if you could just provide any color as to what potentially those needs could be at least in '24? And then also, I guess, kind of using some rational interest rate assumption, what could that be incrementally relative to the guide on interest?

聽著，鑑於有很多關於更單一類別的問題，相當全面。我只是想快速談談指導中的一些線下項目。就像我意識到 23 年底的淨債務水準是多少一樣，但顯然，自投資者日以來，您一直在談論的供應鏈改進存在增量融資需求。那麼，也許您可以提供任何顏色來說明至少在 24 年可能存在哪些潛在需求？然後，我想，使用一些合理的利率假設，相對於利息指南來說，這可能是增量什麼？

Rob, we're not going to give at this time any further direction on the supply chain modernization beyond what we've given. As I said in the prepared remarks, we'll come back later this year with what that will mean for 2024 and what that will mean beyond and the absolutes and everything else. So we'll come back with that later this year.

羅布，除了我們已經給出的內容之外，我們目前不會就供應鏈現代化提供任何進一步的指導。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們將在今年稍後回來討論這對 2024 年意味著什麼，以及超越、絕對和其他一切意味著什麼。所以我們會在今年晚些時候回來。

All right. And then I guess just D&A. D&A was lower than even speaking about or speaking to, maybe just kind of why the change is that just kind of push forward and some of the timing?

好的。然後我想只是 D&A。 D&A 甚至低於談論或談論，也許這只是為什麼改變只是一種推動和一些時機？

Yes, exactly, Rob. I think your characteristic there is correct. So if you think about Q4 of 2023, we had about $17 million of D&A. We had in our press release this morning, $75 million to $85 million for next year for the full year. And really, the driver of that is back to that $80 million. And I mentioned the majority of that are the over half of it will be on CapEx on the $80 million as we stand up, that will move into the depreciation line. And that's what leads to that, I'd call it, a slight increase year-on-year from current run rates.

是的，完全正確，羅布。我認為你的特點是正確的。因此，如果您考慮一下 2023 年第四季度，我們的 D&A 費用約為 1700 萬美元。今天早上我們在新聞稿中透露，明年全年的預算為 7,500 萬至 8,500 萬美元。事實上，這背後的推動力又回到了那 8,000 萬美元。我提到過，其中一半以上將用於我們站起來時的 8000 萬美元資本支出，這將進入折舊線路。這就是導致我稱之為比目前運行率同比略有增長的原因。

Thank you. At this time, we currently have no further questions. So I'll hand back to CEO, Gary Pilnick, for any further remarks.

謝謝。目前，我們沒有進一步的問題。因此，我將向執行長 Gary Pilnick 詢問進一步的評論。

We'd like to thank all of you for joining our call today. This being the very first call of our very first quarter that we had as an independent company. I hope you can hear the confidence we have in our business. We look forward to sharing our Q1 results with you in May. Thank you very much for joining us.

我們要感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。這是我們作為一家獨立公司在第一季接到的第一個電話。我希望您能聽到我們對我們業務的信心。我們期待在五月與您分享我們第一季的業績。非常感謝您加入我們。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。