使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to The Kraft Heinz Company third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.
各位好。歡迎參加卡夫亨氏公司(The Kraft Heinz Company)2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)請注意,本次會議將被錄音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Anne-Marie Megela, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我想把會議交給本次主持人——投資人關係副總裁 Anne-Marie Megela。謝謝。您可以開始了。
Anne-Marie Megela - Vice President, Global Head of Investor Relations
Anne-Marie Megela - Vice President, Global Head of Investor Relations
Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Q&A session for our third quarter 2026 business update. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today's earnings release and our most recent SEC filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.
感謝各位今天加入我們。歡迎參加我們 2026 年第三季業務更新的問答環節。在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會就對未來的預期發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於我們目前的觀點,實際結果可能因風險與不確定性而出現重大差異。有關這些風險與不確定性的更多資訊,請參閱今日的財報新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件中所載的警示性聲明與風險因素。
Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures.
此外,我們可能會提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱今日的財報新聞稿以及我們網站上提供的非 GAAP 資訊,以了解我們的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,以及與可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標之間的調節。
I'll now pass it over to our Chief Executive Officer, Steve Cahillane, for a few opening comments.
接下來我將把時間交給我們的執行長 Steve Cahillane,請他做幾點開場說明。
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, everyone. Before we open the call for questions, I want to take a moment to highlight this morning's announcement regarding the definitive agreement to divest our North American coffee business to One Rock. This is an important step in simplifying and strengthening our portfolio. With this transaction, we can concentrate our capital and management attention where we see the greatest potential for growth and where we can create the most value for our consumers, our customers, and our shareholders.
各位早安。在開放提問之前,我想先花一點時間強調今天早上發布的公告:我們已簽署最終協議,將北美咖啡業務出售給 One Rock。這是我們簡化並強化投資組合的重要一步。透過這項交易,我們可以把資本與管理資源更集中在我們認為最具成長潛力、且能為消費者、客戶與股東創造最大價值的領域。
I also want to acknowledge the people behind this business. These brands have a long and proud history with consumers, and that is a credit to the teams who have cared for them for over many, many years. Thank you for your dedication. We are confident these brands have a bright future under One Rock's focused ownership, and we are demonstrating that confidence by owning a 30% non-controlling equity stake in the business, which allows us to share in their future success.
我也想向這項業務背後的同仁致意。這些品牌在消費者心中擁有悠久且值得驕傲的歷史,這要歸功於多年來悉心經營它們的團隊。感謝各位的投入與奉獻。我們相信在 One Rock 專注的持有與經營下,這些品牌將擁有光明的未來;我們也以持有該業務 30% 的非控股股權來展現這份信心,讓我們能分享其未來成功。
With that, I'm joined by Andre Maciel, and we're happy to take your questions. Operator, please open the line for the first question.
接下來我與 Andre Maciel 一起,很高興回答各位的問題。接線員,請開放第一個問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.
(接線員指示)Andrew Lazar,巴克萊(Barclays)。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Steve, I know you recently spoke a little bit a couple of weeks back about maybe some weakening category trends in sort of US retail, but delivered the North America business organic as planned, even excluding the trade benefit. So I'm wondering how you sort of square those two and what you're expecting in 4Q regarding sequential improvement in US retail, given I think the percent of revenue gaining or holding share seem to take a little step back sequentially this quarter.
Steve,我知道你在幾週前曾提到,美國零售端的品類趨勢可能有些轉弱,但北美業務的有機成長仍如計畫交付,即便排除通路促銷(trade)帶來的利多也是如此。所以我想請教,你如何把這兩點對照起來?以及你對第四季美國零售在環比改善方面的預期為何?因為我認為,本季在「營收中提升或維持市占」的比例似乎較上季略有回落。
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Andrew, thanks for the question. We did deliver a better result than our original plan, and you can see that in our narrowed top-line guidance. And I think what you're seeing in terms of our share trajectory and our consumption trajectory is what you would expect based on the investments that we've made. We've leveled out in terms of where we are in terms of holding share. We'll acknowledge that for certain.
好的,Andrew,謝謝你的問題。我們確實交出了比原先計畫更好的結果,你也可以從我們收斂後的營收指引中看到。我認為你在市占走勢與消費走勢上看到的情況,正是基於我們所做投資所預期會出現的結果。就維持市占而言,我們目前已經趨於持平。這點我們確實承認。
But if you think about the investments we're making, we're making those and we're making those against the innovations that were in the pipeline from last year. So there's a lot of benefit that you'll see in the velocity, but there's not the same benefit that you'll see in total distribution points and the like. You'll see that really start to get kind of its next boost, if you like, in the first quarter, spring of next year with the resets. We've got very constructive dialogues going on with our retail partners. They love the fact that we're making these investments.
但如果你看看我們正在做的投資,我們是在既有投資之上,搭配去年就已在管線中的創新產品一起推進。因此,你會在銷售速度(velocity)上看到不少效益,但在總配銷點數(TDPs)等指標上,效益就不會同樣明顯。你會看到這些在明年第一季、也就是明年春季的通路重置(resets)時,開始迎來下一波推升。我們與零售合作夥伴之間正在進行非常具建設性的對話。他們很喜歡我們正在進行這些投資。
They like what they're seeing in brands like Kraft Mac & Cheese and PowerMac and Capri Sun that are benefiting from that. They like what they're seeing in condiments. But as we get into next year, you'll see we'll have a plan to actually grow TDPs, and you'll see that next level of improvement starting next year, and that's exactly as we expected it.
他們也喜歡看到 Kraft Mac & Cheese、PowerMac 以及 Capri Sun 等品牌因此受益。他們也喜歡看到我們在調味品(condiments)上的表現。但隨著進入明年,你會看到我們會有一個實際拉升 TDPs 的計畫,而下一個層級的改善將從明年開始顯現,這也完全符合我們的預期。
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Just to give --
補充說明——
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Keep going, Andre.
Andre,你繼續。
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Just to give a little more color as well. First, give credit inside North America to US Away From Home and Canada, they both grew low single digit in the quarter again, so which is great and encouraging to see that consistency.
我也再補充一些細節。首先,北美區域內要給美國餐飲通路(US Away From Home)與加拿大團隊肯定;兩者在本季都再次實現低個位數成長,這非常好,也令人鼓舞,因為顯示出一致性。
On US retail, to your point, it did come a little better despite having probably more pressure from retailer inventory than we expected. So we mentioned 80 bps in last earnings that was a little more impacted than that, but the consumption came a little better. The category has indeed softened the way you're expecting. So it was about in our portfolio mix adjusted, about 50 bps softer.
至於美國零售,如你所說,表現確實略優於預期,儘管零售商庫存對我們造成的壓力可能比我們原先預估更大。我們在上一季財報時提到有 80 個基點(bps)的影響,實際上受到的影響比那還要更大一些,但消費端表現略好。品類確實如你預期般轉弱。因此以我們投資組合組合調整後來看,大約轉弱了 50 個基點。
But just to maybe adjust a little bit to what you said in the quarter, our percentage of revenue gaining share has improved a little bit. It went from roughly 25% in the first half to 28%. It's not a great improvement, but still another step in the right direction, so which I think helps to offset the headwinds we saw on the inventory.
不過也許要稍微修正你對本季的說法:我們「營收中市占提升」的比例其實有小幅改善。它從上半年約 25% 提升到 28%。這不是很大的改善,但仍是朝正確方向再邁出一步,我認為這有助於抵消我們在庫存方面看到的逆風。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
And I know it's too early to talk about '27, and maybe we'll get more of that sort of next week. But just with expected higher inflation, a higher year-over-year tax rate next year, maybe some of the incremental investment this year likely to still be a year-over-year headwind next year. I guess, are there any other key puts and takes we should consider? And maybe what sort of opportunities do you have to help mitigate some of these items again as we go into '27?
我知道現在談 2027 年還太早,也許下週你們會提供更多相關內容。但考量到預期通膨更高、明年同比稅率更高,以及今年增加的部分投資在明年可能仍會形成同比逆風。我想問,還有沒有其他我們應該納入考量的關鍵利多與利空?以及在邁向 2027 年時,你們有哪些機會可以再次協助緩解其中一些因素?
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think, as we think about '27, we'll give more guidance than we normally would at an investor meeting next week or we'll talk more color about '27 next week. But we are seeing more inflation. I mean I think everybody is seeing that. Our first line of defense is always productivity, and we're stepping up that productivity.
是的。我想,談到 2027 年,我們會在下週的投資人會議上提供比平常更多的指引,或是下週會提供更多關於 2027 年的細節。但我們確實看到更多通膨。我的意思是,我想大家都看到了。我們的第一道防線一向是生產力提升,而我們正在加大這方面的力道。
As we think about price, we want to take as little price as possible because of the consumer dynamic, but price is likely to have to be taken in '27 for sure. And as I mentioned earlier, we're very bullish about the investments that we've made and the fact that we will get better returns on those investments after the spring resets. And we'll, again, talk more about that next week at our investor meeting, which I hope many of you will be able to attend.
當我們思考定價時,基於消費者動態,我們希望能少漲價就少漲價,但可以確定的是,'27 年很可能還是必須要採取漲價。而且如我先前提到的,我們對已進行的投資以及在春季貨架重置之後能在這些投資上取得更佳回報這件事非常看多。我們也會在下週的投資人會議上再多談一些,我希望你們當中很多人都能出席。
Operator
Operator
Nik Modi, RBC.
Nik Modi,RBC。
Nik Modi - Analyst
Nik Modi - Analyst
Steve, I was hoping you can talk about Away From Home. We've been hearing from some other companies, there's been some pressure from Away From Home, but obviously, you had a very good quarter there. So just wanted to get some more context.
Steve,我希望你能談談「居家外(Away From Home)」通路。我們從其他一些公司那邊聽到,居家外通路有一些壓力,但很明顯你們那邊這一季表現非常好。所以想請你提供更多背景脈絡。
Is this something you think you can muscle through some of this weakness simply because you have these new partnerships and you're really leaning in? Any context on that would be helpful.
你是否認為,單純因為你們有這些新的合作夥伴、而且你們正大力投入,就能挺過這些疲弱?任何相關背景都會很有幫助。
And then just kind of wanted to follow up on one of Andrew's questions regarding market share. You talked about better shelf resets next year, but something that we're picking up across a lot of different categories, how retailers are really kind of rethinking the aisle generally. And I'm just curious, if you've seen that, have had conversations with retailers around that, given how big you are as a supplier to many of your retailers?
另外也想追問一下 Andrew 其中一個關於市占率的問題。你提到明年會有更好的貨架重置,但我們在很多不同品類都觀察到,零售商正在重新思考整個走道的配置。我很好奇你們是否也看到這個現象、是否有和零售商就此進行對話?畢竟你們作為許多零售商的重要供應商,規模很大。
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks, Nik. So in Away From Home, most of our, if not all of our success this last couple of quarters has been through share gains. And a lot of that is based on the partnerships that you referenced. The NFL and Disney are just really starting and proving to be quite valuable. We're taking share.
是的,謝謝你,Nik。就居家外通路而言,我們過去幾季的大部分(如果不是全部)成功都來自於市占提升。其中很大一部分是基於你提到的那些合作夥伴關係。NFL 和 Disney 才剛開始發力,且證明相當有價值。我們正在搶市占。
We're gaining new distribution across not only ketchup but also the other condiments. So we're feeling very good about our Away From Home performance. And as we look to the consumer recovering in '27, if we continue to gain share and get the category itself gets a little bit of tailwind, it's a great place for us to be. So global Away From Home grew nicely, and North America Away From Home grew nicely. So we're feeling very good about that.
我們不僅在番茄醬,也在其他調味品上取得新的通路鋪貨。所以我們對居家外通路的表現感到非常好。而當我們展望 '27 年消費者復甦時,如果我們能持續提升市占、同時品類本身也獲得一些順風,那對我們來說會是很好的位置。因此全球居家外通路成長良好,北美居家外通路也成長良好。所以我們對此非常有信心。
In terms of the North American retail and the way they're thinking about the aisles, we're involved in a lot of very constructive conversations around just that. How do you revitalize and how do you make the aisle more interesting? I wouldn't say there's anything dramatic in the offing for '27, but we're square at the table with those conversations.
至於北美零售端以及他們對走道的思考方式,我們正參與許多非常具建設性的對話,正是圍繞這些議題。如何讓走道重新活化、如何讓走道更有趣?我不會說 '27 年會有什麼戲劇性的變化即將發生,但我們確實在這些對話中坐在桌邊、扮演重要角色。
And I think part of that is we punched that ticket when we made the investment of $600 million, now $700 million and was very bullish about we're going to grow. We want to be a tailwind for our retailers, not a headwind.
我認為其中一部分原因是,當我們做出 6 億美元、現在是 7 億美元的投資時,我們就拿到了那張入場券,而且我們非常看多我們將會成長。我們希望成為零售商的順風,而不是逆風。
And part of that comes through innovative thinking about how we make the aisle more dynamic, more interesting, how we bring more innovation, how we drive more traffic. So that is clearly a conversation that we're engaging up and down with our retailers.
而其中一部分就來自於創新思維:我們如何讓走道更有活力、更有趣;如何帶來更多創新;如何帶動更多人流。所以這顯然是我們與零售商在各個層級都在積極投入的對話。
Operator
Operator
Thomas Palmer, JPMorgan.
Thomas Palmer,JPMorgan。
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
I wanted to ask on the timing item you noted as it relates to operating profit in the quarter, the 450 basis points of help relative to your expectation from trade and marketing. What caused the timing shift? Was there anything more tactical on your end to kind of think about?
我想就你提到與本季營業利益相關的「時點」項目提問:相較於你們原先預期,來自通路費用與行銷的時點因素帶來了 450 個基點的助益。是什麼造成了這個時點的移動?你們端是否有任何更偏戰術性的考量?
And then just to clarify, you would look for this to be fully made up for in 4Q? Or is there a bit of a change in trade for the year as well?
另外想確認一下,你們預期這部分會在第四季完全補回來嗎?還是說全年在通路費用方面也會有一些變動?
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks for the question. Nothing in particular. It's just the way the programming ended up working. So we have, by end of Q3, spent roughly 70% of the trade and the marketing investments planned for the year. Q3 year-to-date to have already accrued in the P&L 6.1% of marketing.
謝謝你的問題。沒有什麼特別的原因。只是活動規劃最後的落點就是那樣。所以截至第三季末,我們已花費約全年規劃之通路與行銷投資的 70%。第三季年初至今,我們在損益表中已認列 6.1% 的行銷費用。
So we're going to -- we are pacing that. And there is no intention to change our plan whatsoever. So we do have historically our market share peaks in Thanksgiving and Christmas. So we decided to concentrate more of the efforts to the Q4. So nothing beyond that.
所以我們會——我們正依此節奏推進。而且完全沒有任何意圖要改變我們的計畫。此外,從歷史來看,我們的市占高峰通常出現在感恩節與聖誕節期間。因此我們決定把更多資源集中在第四季。除此之外沒有別的。
Operator
Operator
Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.
Max Gumport,BNP Paribas。
Max Gumport - Research Analyst
Max Gumport - Research Analyst
I wanted to focus on your market share performance in US retail. So previously, when you announced these investment plans, you discussed how you expected to see meaningful results in the second half, you expected to see a bend in the trend even in market share. You acknowledge you're a bit behind that schedule.
我想聚焦在你們美國零售端的市占表現。先前你們宣布這些投資計畫時,曾談到預期在下半年會看到顯著成果,甚至在市占趨勢上也會看到轉折。你們也承認目前稍微落後於那個時程。
But you're also saying things are playing out exactly as you expected, and you now expect a meaningful step-up next spring. Can you just maybe provide a bit more color on why it does seem like market share has perhaps not really shown the progress you initially expected to see in the US and then give a bit more color on why you remain confident that next year?
但你們同時又表示事情的發展完全符合你們的預期,並且現在預期明年春天會有顯著的提升。你能否再多提供一些說明:為什麼看起來美國的市占可能沒有如你們最初預期那樣出現進展?以及為什麼你們仍對明年有信心?
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks, Max. I'd remind you that we've never and we won't give market share forecasts, but our top line in North America and globally is moving better than we anticipated at the start of the year. And there's categories where we're doing better than we expected, and there's categories where we're acknowledging we're doing not as well as we expected.
是的,謝謝你,Max。我想提醒你,我們從來沒有、也不會提供市占率的預測;但我們在北美以及全球的營收表現,較年初時我們預期的更好。有些品類我們做得比預期更好,也有些品類我們承認做得不如預期。
One of the -- not as well as expected is clearly in Philly Cream Cheese. And it's an interesting one because we're gaining share, but we're losing consumption because the category is under pressure and some of the pricing moves that we made proved to be deflationary to the category, so they didn't work. And so we're adjusting.
其中一個——不如預期的——很明顯是在費城奶油乳酪(Philly Cream Cheese)。這很有意思,因為我們在提升市占,但消費量在下滑,原因是該品類承壓,而我們做出的一些定價動作對品類造成了通縮效應,所以沒有奏效。因此我們正在調整。
And so I'd say, broadly speaking, the fact that we bent the trend and we're holding that, improving it very modestly is a better place to be than the opposite. And we've also said all along that progress would not be linear. And so we reserve the right to continue to get smarter to make the reinvestments and move things around as we see what's working and what's not working.
所以我會說,整體而言,我們讓趨勢出現轉折並且維持住、且非常小幅地改善,這比起相反的情況要好得多。而且我們一路以來也都說過,進展不會是線性的。因此我們保留持續變得更聰明的權利:在看到哪些有效、哪些無效之後,調整再投資並重新配置資源。
And so as we study our market share and we study our North American retail performance, what we've seen is we're gaining velocity and we're improving velocity against smaller shelf sets because we lost distribution last year, and we had an innovation pipeline that was based on the underinvestments of the years past.
因此,當我們研究市占率並檢視北美零售表現時,我們看到的是:在去年失去部分通路覆蓋、且創新管線是建立在過去幾年投資不足的基礎上之後,我們在較小的貨架配置下,銷售動能正在提升,而且相較之下的動能表現也在改善。
But we looked at that pipeline and said, what could work for us? We think Kraft Mac & Cheese PowerMac could work. So we leaned into that. We thought Capri Sun Hydrate could work. We leaned into that. We thought Ore-Ida and shapes and some of those things were good. So we leaned into that. And what we're looking forward to is the investments that we've made this year and the pipeline that we've built this year for next year will prove to be more beneficial to us. And so non-linear, but good progress, and we're feeling good about where we are from a top-line perspective.
但我們檢視那條管線並問自己:什麼可能對我們有效?我們認為 Kraft Mac & Cheese PowerMac 可能行得通。所以我們加大投入。我們認為 Capri Sun Hydrate 可能行得通。所以我們加大投入。我們認為 Ore-Ida 以及造型產品和其中一些項目都不錯。所以我們加大投入。而我們所期待的是:今年所做的投資,以及今年為明年建立的產品管線,將被證明對我們更有利。因此,雖然不是線性成長,但進展良好;從營收端(top-line)的角度來看,我們對目前的位置感到樂觀。
We're feeling good about the constructive discussions we're having with retailers about next year. And so that's kind of where we stand. We're feeling good about the innovation pipeline for next year.
我們也對與零售商就明年的合作所進行的建設性討論感到樂觀。大致上我們目前就是這樣的狀態。我們對明年的創新管線也感到樂觀。
If you look at one example of what's happening in Canada, we introduced KD Ramen. And literally, we sold three months of inventory in a week. And great innovation. We're going to bring that to North America next year. And so we'll continue to hold ourselves accountable for market share and for consumption growth, and we're feeling okay about where we are right now, and we're feeling better about what we're building for next year.
如果你看加拿大正在發生的一個例子,我們推出了 KD Ramen。而且真的在一週內就賣掉了三個月的庫存。這是很棒的創新。我們明年會把它帶到北美。因此,我們會持續對市占率與消費量成長負責;我們對目前的狀況覺得還可以,也對我們為明年所打造的內容更有信心。
Operator
Operator
Peter Galbo, Bank of America.
Peter Galbo,美國銀行。
Peter Galbo - Analyst
Peter Galbo - Analyst
Andre, I know you mentioned that inflation maybe could still be higher into '27. I think last call, you had provided kind of some early thoughts on, I think, 4% to 5% inflation guidance for '27. I didn't see an update on that today. So I was just hoping to get some clarification there. And obviously, on some of the raw materials, we've seen some deflation. So just curious kind of where you're falling in that band for next year.
Andre,我知道你提到通膨可能一路到 2027 年仍會偏高。我記得上次電話會議你曾提供一些初步看法,大概是 2027 年 4% 到 5% 的通膨指引。我今天沒有看到更新。所以想請你釐清一下。另外,在某些原物料上我們也看到一些通縮。所以也想了解一下,對明年而言,你們在那個區間內大概落在哪個位置。
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. Steve said we're going to provide a little more color on '27 next week, but I can tell you on inflation, as we previously said in the prior call, we're expecting 4% to 5% next year. The expectation is now slightly above 5%. So we continue to see, on one hand, more inflation coming from packaging. And from certain commodities, soybean oil remains a good item of pressure.
當然。Steve 說我們會在下週提供更多關於 2027 年的細節,但就通膨而言,我可以告訴你,如同我們在前一次電話會議所說,我們預期明年為 4% 到 5%。目前的預期略高於 5%。因此,我們一方面仍看到包材帶來較多通膨。而在某些大宗商品上,大豆油仍然是主要的壓力來源。
We are having a lot of favorability this year from dairy, and we do expect some of that to reverse into next year, which will create -- contribute to the year-over-year pressure. And that's why Steve mentioned a little while ago that even though productivity remains the first line of defense and we feel good about the pipeline we have for next year, there will be an element of price across all regions, so we can protect our gross margins.
今年乳製品成本對我們非常有利,而我們確實預期其中一部分在明年會反轉,這將造成——並加大年對年的成本壓力。這也是為什麼 Steve 先前提到:即便生產力提升仍是第一道防線,而且我們對明年的管線感到樂觀,但為了保護毛利率,我們在所有區域都會有一定程度的漲價。
Operator
Operator
Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.
Leah Jordan,高盛。
Leah Jordan - Analyst
Leah Jordan - Analyst
I just wanted to follow up on the margin discussion. I know there's been a few questions different this morning. But you previously suggested this year should be a trough in margins. Your investments continue to play out, some working, some not. You called out a little bit higher input cost inflation.
我想追問一下關於毛利率的討論。我知道今天早上已經有幾個不同角度的問題。但你們先前曾表示今年的毛利率應該會是谷底。你們的投資持續展開,有些有效、有些沒有。你們也提到投入成本通膨略高。
Just wanting to get an update on your confidence in that view, the high-level puts and takes we should keep in mind around the stability? Or what would you call out as the biggest tailwinds? Is it productivity at this point? Or just kind of help clarify that point?
想請你更新一下你們對這個觀點的信心程度,以及在穩定性方面我們應該留意的高層次利多與利空因素?或者你會點出最大的順風是什麼?到目前為止是生產力提升嗎?或是請協助釐清這一點?
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So what we have said is the level of investment that we have deployed in the P&L this year, $700 million, we believe to be sufficient to turn around the business and deliver sustainable volume-led growth. And that's still the case. And we are investing -- we will invest in the P&L $700 million. And next year, that's expected to remain the same level. So there will be no margin decline driven by more investments required. So that's important.
我們所說的是:今年我們在損益表(P&L)中投入的投資規模為 7 億美元,我們相信這足以扭轉業務並帶來可持續、以銷量帶動的成長。目前仍是如此。而且我們正在投資——我們今年會在 P&L 投資 7 億美元。明年預期也會維持同樣的水準。因此,不會因為需要更多投資而導致毛利率下滑。這點很重要。
Now with the elevated level of inflation and inflation phasing throughout the year, just to put a perspective, this year, our level of inflation is expected to be slightly more than 4%. But in Q4, it is around 6% and which prompting the need to price across the regions. Normally, when you see rising inflation, the pricing obviously comes with a lag, and that lag puts temporary pressure on margins.
至於通膨水準偏高以及通膨在全年各季的分布,提供一個視角:今年我們的通膨水準預期略高於 4%。但在第四季大約是 6%,這也促使我們需要在各區域進行定價調整(漲價)。通常當你看到通膨上升時,定價調整顯然會有時間落差,而這個落差會對毛利率造成暫時性的壓力。
So we do expect to see this type of dynamic affecting us, but that's just temporary as price flow through the P&L. So again, we're going to talk more about 2027 next week, but I want you to understand these dynamics.
因此,我們確實預期這類動態會影響我們,但這只是暫時的,因為價格會逐步反映到損益表中。再次強調,我們下週會更詳細談 2027 年,但我希望你能理解這些動態。
Operator
Operator
Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.
Michael Lavery,Piper Sandler。
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Michael Lavery - Analyst
You're obviously increasing the spending quite significantly this year, but you're also improving the ROI and ROAS. Can you maybe point to what's helping boost some of that effectiveness and efficiency? And is there more upside? Is it specific to certain brands or categories that could be transferred more broadly across the portfolio or from one geography to another? How is the -- what's kind of driving that lift? And is there more headroom to it?
你們今年顯然大幅提高支出,但同時也在改善 ROI 和 ROAS。你能否指出是什麼在幫助提升這些成效與效率?還有是否有進一步上行空間?這是否特別來自某些品牌或品類,並且可以更廣泛地移轉到整個產品組合,或從一個地區複製到另一個地區?這種提升——大概是什麼在驅動?而且還有多少空間?
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Michael, thanks for the question. I'd say before I arrived, the company was making good progress in building capability around the efficiency of marketing spend. And the investments that we're making are not just in advertising, promotion, price. They're also in capability and people. So we continue to build on that capability.
是的,Michael,謝謝你的問題。我會說在我到任之前,公司在提升行銷支出效率相關能力方面已經取得不錯的進展。而我們正在做的投資不只是廣告、促銷、定價。也包括能力建設與人才。因此我們會持續在這些能力上加碼並延伸。
And technology continues to move forward rapidly in terms of our ability to understand in real time what we're getting returns for and what we're not. And I see continued upside in that. So the level of spending that we have, as Andre said, we feel is very sufficient and getting a better return on that in '27 versus what we got in '26 is, in fact, very realistic and something we're demanding of ourselves. And so we feel good about the level of investment, and we feel very good about the capability that we're building and our ability to get continued improvement in returns based on those investments.
而且,隨著科技持續快速前進,我們在即時理解「哪些投入帶來回報、哪些沒有」的能力也在不斷提升。我認為這方面仍有持續上行空間。因此,正如Andre所說,我們目前的支出水準,我們認為非常充足;而且在'27年相較於'26年,從這些投入中取得更好的回報,事實上是非常現實的,也是我們對自己提出的要求。所以我們對投資水準感到安心,也對我們正在建立的能力,以及基於這些投資持續改善回報的能力非常有信心。
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And more practically, like if you look on trade investments, like we have a very good visibility to invest in capabilities in RGM for many years now. And there continues to have opportunities for us to improve certain promotional tactics, sometimes moving dollars across brands.
更務實地說,例如你看通路投資(trade investments),我們多年來在RGM能力建置上的投資可視性非常高。而且我們仍然有機會去改善某些促銷戰術,有時也會在品牌之間調整資金配置。
And on the marketing front, there is opportunity to redeploy dollars across brands to a certain extent and also improve the amount allocated to different media types. So we're going to speak a little bit about that next week as well. You'll hear more, but we feel confident about the ability to continue to improve a lot of the returns on those investments.
在行銷方面,我們也有機會在一定程度上於品牌之間重新部署資金,並且改善分配到不同媒體類型的金額。所以下週我們也會稍微談到這些。你們會聽到更多,但我們對於持續提升這些投資回報的能力很有信心。
Operator
Operator
David Palmer, Evercore ISI.
David Palmer,Evercore ISI。
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
I wanted to ask you about the investments this year. How much of that $700 million has been spent so far? And do you think you're going to hit that number in calendar 2026?
我想問一下你們今年的投資。這7億美元到目前為止已經花了多少?以及你們認為在2026曆年會達到這個數字嗎?
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Andre Maciel - Global Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. As I said a few minutes ago, we have spent around 70% of the price investments for the year and about the same for marketing investments. We have, at this point, hired 80% of the people that we have planned, and we expect to, by the end of the year, pretty much be hiring everyone that was previously anticipated. So we will spend the $700 million this year, as we have said before.
是的。如同我幾分鐘前提到的,我們今年的價格投資(price investments)大約已經花了70%,行銷投資也差不多是同樣比例。截至目前,我們已經完成原先規劃人員招募的80%,並且預期到年底時,基本上會把先前預計要招募的人都招齊。所以我們今年會如先前所說,在今年花掉這7億美元。
There will be -- and we're going to put more money in marketing because we are not spending the whole money behind people, right, because of the natural ramp-up. Next year, there will be a little bit of carryover of people, but we are redeploying resources across the different levers, and we do have a number of efficiencies on the SG&A front, further leveraging our shared services, further leveraging automation. So then any ramp-up of people will be fully offset. But again, we are spending $700 million in the P&L this year.
另外,我們會在行銷上投入更多資金,因為在人員方面我們不會把全部資金都花出去,對吧,因為人力自然需要爬坡期(ramp-up)。明年人員方面會有一點結轉(carryover),但我們會在不同槓桿之間重新部署資源;同時在SG&A端我們也有多項效率提升,進一步運用共享服務,進一步運用自動化。因此,人員爬坡帶來的任何增加都會被完全抵銷。但再強調一次,我們今年在損益表(P&L)上會支出7億美元。
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
Great. I wanted just to ask you've talked a bit about some of the things that you're learning. But if you had to sort of list the biggest things that you might do differently with the money that you're spending next year, first of all, do you envision it being similar in amount to this year, but maybe just spent better?
很好。我想再問一下,你們談到了一些正在學到的事情。但如果要列出明年在花這筆錢時,你們可能會做得最不一樣的幾件事:首先,你們是否預期金額會和今年相近,但只是花得更有效率?
And then why would it be better? I guess there's going to be maybe some retailer resets, maybe the quality of the innovation, maybe some things you're learning on the promotion activity, ROI, any sort of proportions of why the ROI might be better?
然後為什麼會更好?我猜可能會有一些零售商重置(retailer resets)、創新品質、或是你們在促銷活動與ROI上學到的一些事情;是否有任何比例或因素能解釋為什麼ROI可能會更好?
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I'd say the ROI will be better simply because we're learning, right? We're learning about this incremental investment of what's working, what's not working. The most obvious example that we pointed out is the pricing on Philly Cream Cheese, which worked in brick, but didn't work on tub. And why is that?
是的。我會說ROI會更好,單純是因為我們在學習,對吧?我們在學習這些增量投資(incremental investment)哪些有效、哪些無效。我們指出最明顯的例子是Philly奶油乳酪的定價:在磚狀包裝(brick)有效,但在盒裝(tub)無效。那為什麼會這樣?
And so we explore why that is and we learn from it. We reallocate that investment towards higher returning areas. A lot of what we're spending on Heinz ketchup really working, what we're spending on Heinz Zero really working. So it's just -- it's kind of as simple as that. We're learning what's working, and we're spending more against that.
因此我們去探究原因並從中學習。我們把那部分投資重新分配到回報更高的領域。我們在Heinz番茄醬上的很多投入確實有效,我們在Heinz Zero上的投入也確實有效。所以就是——其實就這麼簡單。我們在學哪些有效,然後把更多資源投向那些有效的地方。
And in terms of innovation, as I mentioned earlier, we had the innovation pipeline as it was. And so we allocated investment against where we thought there were winners, and I've mentioned some of those. We have a different innovation pipeline coming in '27, which we'll talk more about next week. which we feel is significantly better than '26, still not sufficient. So we're going to get better even beyond '27 into '28.
至於創新,如我先前提到的,我們當時的創新管線就是那樣。因此我們把投資配置到我們認為會是贏家的地方,我也提過其中一些。我們在'27年會有不同的創新管線,下週會再多談。我們認為它明顯優於'26年,但仍然不夠。所以我們會在'27之後、進入'28時做得更好。
And so it's making sure that we're spending the appropriate amount of investment against R&D. We've increased our spend 20%. R&D spending and investment doesn't happen overnight, but it's building towards the future. And we feel good about getting closer to 1% of net sales as a ratio against R&D, more than 6% in sales and marketing.
因此,重點是確保我們在研發(R&D)上投入適當的投資金額。我們已將支出提高了20%。研發支出與投資不會一夕之間見效,但它是在為未來打底。而且我們很有信心,研發費用占淨銷售額的比率能更接近1%,同時在銷售與行銷上的投入占比超過6%。
And so the investment is there. We feel the investment is sufficient, but it's a learning curve that we're on, and it's a good place to be relative to anything else. So we feel good about '27 and the learnings that we'll apply based on '26 and onwards.
所以投資是到位的。我們認為投資是足夠的,但我們正處在學習曲線上,而相較於其他任何選項,這是一個很好的位置。因此我們對'27年以及基於'26年及之後所累積的學習並加以應用,感到很有信心。
Operator
Operator
Rob Dickerson, US Bancorp.
Rob Dickerson,US Bancorp。
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Steve, obviously, a couple of comments on the call today about potential need to take some incremental price next year just to protect gross margin. I'm just kind of curious kind of how you're viewing, let's say, the overall marketplace, right? Because like kind of the core tenet or one of the core tenets of the strategy longer term is like demand recovery, right, volume-led growth that's profitable, sometimes to take price, maybe it's harder to stimulate that demand, especially when the consumer is, but maybe that's less of a material event kind of if the entire marketplace does that.
Steve,今天電話會議上你提到幾點,談到明年可能需要再做一些額外的漲價,以保護毛利率。我有點好奇你們如何看待整體市場環境,對吧?因為長期策略的一個核心主軸(core tenet)是需求復甦(demand recovery),也就是以量帶動的獲利成長(volume-led growth that's profitable)。有時候如果要漲價,可能更難刺激需求,尤其在消費者目前的狀態下;但如果整個市場都這麼做,或許就不是那麼重大的事件。
So just kind of trying to gauge or get some color as kind of the thoughts on how that could play out.
所以我想大概衡量一下,或請你多分享一些你們對這件事可能如何發展的看法。
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So if you study the syndicated data for this year, you can see that we've been taking less price. And we've said that all along, the consumer is in a fragile state, and we want to take as little price as possible in order to meet the consumers where they are. When you look at what's happening in the fourth quarter of this year into next year, there's clearly more inflation. That's disappointing, but it's real.
是的。所以如果你研究今年的綜合通路數據(syndicated data),你會看到我們漲價幅度較小。而且我們一直都這麼說:消費者處於脆弱狀態,我們希望盡可能少漲價,以便在消費者所在的位置與他們相遇(meet the consumers where they are)。當你看今年第四季延伸到明年正在發生的事情時,通膨顯然更高。這令人失望,但這是現實。
A lot of that is logistics. It's fuel driven, some commodities, but it's real. So everybody is seeing COGS inflation. And so I do think you'll see more pricing in '27, not less pricing. And so as Andre already mentioned, and we say over and over, our first line of defense is against productivity, and we'll continue to ramp up our efforts against productivity.
其中很大一部分是物流因素。這是由燃料驅動的,也涉及一些大宗商品,但這是實實在在的。所以大家都看到了銷貨成本(COGS)通膨。因此我確實認為你會在 '27 看到更多的定價,而不是更少的定價。所以正如 Andre 已經提到的,而且我們一再強調,我們的第一道防線是提升生產力,我們也會持續加大在生產力上的努力。
But I do feel like '27 will require price. You're seeing that from the peer set clearly. And so I think that's just the environment that we're going to be in. And it will be kind of -- we'll be in it with everybody. So it won't be a competitive advantage or disadvantage. It will just be the situation that we have to face.
但我確實覺得 '27 會需要漲價。你從同業群體那邊已經很清楚地看到這一點。所以我認為這就是我們將要面對的環境。而且會有點像——我們會跟大家一起處在這個環境裡。所以這不會是競爭優勢或劣勢。這只是我們必須面對的情況。
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Right. Fair enough. And then maybe just one quick --
對。可以理解。然後也許再一個很快的——
Anne-Marie Megela - Vice President, Global Head of Investor Relations
Anne-Marie Megela - Vice President, Global Head of Investor Relations
Go ahead.
請說。
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Sorry. Just a quick question on the meats business. That's clearly kind of been a little bit of a drag for you kind of for some time. Obviously, announced the divestment or, I guess, partial divestment of coffee this morning. So I'm just curious, like is that -- is the meats business like kind of, I guess, broader question is like is that fixable?
抱歉。就肉類業務快速問一個問題。這顯然在一段時間以來多少有點拖累你們。當然,你們今天早上宣布了咖啡業務的出售,或者我想是部分出售。所以我只是好奇,像是——肉類業務是不是——我想更廣泛的問題是:這是可以修復的嗎?
Like is the category itself a little disadvantaged? Or is this scenario where maybe you would consider kind of looking more in the justifiable reasons of keeping it kind of like you've done with part of cheese and nuts and coffee? That's all.
是這個品類本身有點處於劣勢嗎?還是說這種情況下,你們可能會考慮更進一步檢視保留它的合理性,就像你們對部分起司、堅果和咖啡所做的那樣?就這樣。
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we'll continue to look for opportunities to make our portfolio a more growth-oriented portfolio. And you saw that today with the announcement around coffee. We feel very good about that. In terms of the meats business, Oscar Mayer, I would start with the strength of the brand.
是的。所以我們會持續尋找機會,讓我們的產品組合更偏向成長導向。你今天也從咖啡相關的公告看到了這一點。我們對此感覺非常好。至於肉類業務,Oscar Mayer,我會先從品牌的強度談起。
It is a phenomenal brand. So yes, it is fixable. There's areas where we've had some own goals, which we're fixing. It's improving quite a lot. So it's stopped getting as bad, but that's clearly not sufficient. So there's still work to be done.
那是一個非常出色的品牌。所以是的,它是可以修復的。有些地方我們自己也犯了錯(own goals),我們正在修正。它正在改善很多。所以情況已經不再繼續惡化,但這顯然還不夠。因此仍然有工作要做。
We haven't innovated around the Oscar Mayer portfolio in ways that you'd expect. We haven't addressed some of the concerns around the processed nature of it. So there's a lot of things that we can do and we need to do around the Oscar business. But more broadly, I'd say we'll continue to look for areas where we can make portfolio improvements.
我們在 Oscar Mayer 產品組合上的創新,沒有做到你會期待的程度。我們也沒有處理一些對其「加工」特性的疑慮。所以在 Oscar 業務上,我們有很多事情可以做、也需要做。但更廣泛地說,我會說我們會持續尋找可以改善產品組合的領域。
Anne-Marie Megela - Vice President, Global Head of Investor Relations
Anne-Marie Megela - Vice President, Global Head of Investor Relations
Operator, we have time for one more question.
接線員,我們還有時間再問一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Scott Marks, Jefferies.
Scott Marks,Jefferies。
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
I wanted to just come back to the cream cheese category in Philadelphia. Obviously, part of the Win Big bucket. You talked about some of the price investments not working, maybe redeploying some of that. Just wondering if you can share a little bit about how you're thinking. Is that investment being redeployed to other parts of the business where you're seeing more traction?
我想回到 Philadelphia 的奶油乳酪品類。顯然這是 Win Big 類別中的一部分。你提到一些價格投資沒有奏效,可能會重新配置其中一部分。想請問你能否分享一下你們的思考方式。這項投資是否被重新部署到業務的其他部分,在那裡你們看到更好的進展?
Are you putting it back into other areas of the Philadelphia business? Just any thinking or update around how you're thinking strategically about driving improvements forward for that brand in that category.
還是你們把它放回 Philadelphia 業務的其他領域?就你們如何在該品類中、針對該品牌推動改善的策略思考,任何想法或更新都可以。
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steven Cahillane - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. It's all fungible, obviously. And when we look at Philly, the pricing investment didn't work. But we just launched lactose-free cream cheese. And so we're building distribution there.
是的。顯然這些資源是可以互相調度的。而當我們看 Philly 時,那個定價投資沒有奏效。但我們剛推出了無乳糖奶油乳酪。所以我們正在建立那邊的通路鋪貨。
And I'd say what Philly needs from a category perspective is more innovation because it's very clear where we're losing as a category, we're losing to cottage cheese and other more protein forward. So we need to do more innovation around what the consumer is looking for vis-a-vis protein, vis-a-vis flavors, vis-a-vis overall innovation. And you'll see, and we'll talk more about that in the future in terms of what that brand can do and what the category can do.
而我會說,從品類角度來看,Philly 需要更多創新,因為很清楚我們在品類上的流失,是流失到茅屋起司(cottage cheese)以及其他更偏高蛋白的產品。所以我們需要圍繞消費者在蛋白質、口味以及整體創新方面的需求,做更多創新。而你會看到——我們未來也會就這個品牌能做什麼、以及這個品類能做什麼,談得更多。
The brand itself is an incredibly strong brand. So there's nothing wrong with the brand. It's just the category is under some pressure relative to switching out of cream cheese into cottage cheese and others, and that's very addressable, but it's going to take just a little bit of time.
這個品牌本身是一個極其強勢的品牌。所以品牌本身沒有問題。只是相較之下,這個品類因為從奶油乳酪轉向茅屋起司及其他產品而承受一些壓力;這是很可以處理的,但需要一點時間。
Operator
Operator
We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session, and with that, the conclusion of today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.
我們已經到達問答環節的尾聲,也到此結束今天的電話會議。你現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝各位的參與,祝各位有美好的一天。