Kelly Services Inc (KELYB) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to Kelly Services' fourth-quarter earnings conference call. All parties will be on listen only until the question-and-answer portion of the presentation. Today's call is being recorded at the request of Kelly Services. If anyone has any objection, you may disconnect at this time.

  • I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host, Mr. Carl Camden, President and CEO. Sir? You may begin.

  • Carl Camden - President and CEO

  • Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Kelly Services' 2014 fourth-quarter and year-end conference call. With me on today's call is Patricia Little, our CFO and also with us is George Corona, our Chief Operating Officer.

  • Let me remind you that any comments made during this call including the Q&A may include forward-looking statements about our expectations for future performance; actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments; and we have no obligation to update the statements made on this call. Please refer to our SEC filings for a description of the risk factors that could influence the Company's actual future performance.

  • Before we review our fourth-quarter results, it is worth noting that 2014 was a year of important change at Kelly as we focused on growth and implemented aggressive investments, particularly in our professional and technical specialties and our OCG practices. During the second half of the year, we launched a new PT recruiting model in our local US operations, and added business development resources focused on PT sales growth. Finished transitioning our targeted large accounts into a centralized service model and we made significant progress in building out elements of OCG's talent supply chain.

  • With these investments in place, we then implemented the management simplification plan we discussed on our last earnings call, taking $35 million out of our 2015 expense base.

  • In short, it was a year of significant change and, as we look at our fourth-quarter and full-year results, I am pleased to say the strategy is on track and our investments are gaining traction.

  • Turning to the results, revenue was $1.4 billion for the quarter, up almost 6% in constant currency year over year. For the full year, Kelly's revenue was $5.6 billion compared to $5.4 billion in 2013. Our gross profit rate for the quarter was 16.3%, down 40 basis points from the same period last year, but up 20 basis points over the third quarter. Fourth-quarter adjusted expenses were up 4% year over year in caustic currency and up 6% for the full year. In line with the expectations we shared early in 2014 and on track with our investment -- our planned investments.

  • Our expenses for the quarter were favorably impacted by a reduction in cost, due to the early impact of our management simplification plan. We achieved an adjusted operating profit of $8.8 million in the fourth quarter, down compared to adjusted earnings of $9.9 million for the fourth quarter last year. Adjusted operating earnings totaled nearly $33.9 million for the full year compared to $56.6 million in 2013.

  • Kelly's fourth-quarter earnings from continuing operations, excluding restructuring, were $0.54 per share compared to adjusted earnings of $0.45 per share for the same period last year. For the full year, adjusted earnings totaled $0.81 per share compared to $1.62 in 2013.

  • Overall, our Q4 performance exceeded our expectations as the US economy continued to improve and we began to see encouraging signs that our 2014 investments are taking hold. Now let's take a closer look at our performance in each of our business segments starting with the Americas.

  • Revenue demand in the Americas continued to strengthen during the fourth quarter with combined staffing revenue for the region up 6% year over year, compared to the 3% increase in Q3 and the 1% increase in Q2. Americas commercial staffing revenue led the way with 8% year-over-year growth for the fourth quarter, doubling the growth rate we reported in Q3 while industrial was up 5% from a year ago, also an improvement from the 1% year-over-year growth we reported last quarter.

  • Office, clerical was up 3% from a year ago, a solid improvement and a turnaround from about 3% decline we reported last quarter.

  • And, finally, for commercial staffing, new customer wins in Kelly educational staffing continued to fuel strong growth with revenue growth of more than 50% year over year in the quarter and record-setting revenue of more than $200 million for the full year.

  • Turning to our Americas PT performance, overall PT revenue was down 1% from the prior year compared to the 1% improvement we reported in the last quarter. With the operational changes we implemented in 2014, we are now servicing large and local accounts through two different delivery models in the Americas. And it is useful to look at our PT results through that lens since each model is in a different stage of transition.

  • In our local accounts, we are already starting to see traction from the investments we made in our PT business, both in revenue and order demand. PT revenue in our local accounts was down 5% year over year for the fourth quarter and an improvement from the 8% reduction in Q3. In large accounts we have finished transitioning all of the targeted accounts into our centralized model and are now fine-tuning our delivery system. Although our PT performance was impacted by large PT project completions in Q4, we saw order volumes increase in other large accounts and deliver positive PT revenue growth of 1% year over year in Q4.

  • Looking more closely at our core PT specialties, our science business continued to be the strongest performer during the quarter with revenue up 4% year over year, slightly higher than the 3% growth we reported last quarter. Finance also showed nice improvement reporting the revenue increase of 3%, compared to flat performance Q3 and a 12% decline in Q2.

  • As expected, engineering revenue was flat year over year compared to the 4% growth we saw in Q3, primarily due to the impact of the completion and phasing of some large account customer projects as previously mentioned. Our IT business reported a revenue decline of 5% year over year for the quarter, an improvement over the 7% decline reported in the third quarter and 12% decline in Q2.

  • Turning to the Americas' overall performance, firm fee growth continued to be a bright note in Q4 and was up 10% year over year. Commercial fees were up 16% and PT fees were up 4% from a year ago.

  • Americas' gross profit rate was 14.8%, down 60 basis points from the prior year, due to an increase in workers compensation and health care costs for our temporary workers. Q4 expenses were up 4% year over year as savings from the management's simplification plan helped offset some of our targeted investments in recruiting sales and technology.

  • All told, Americas achieved earnings of $23 million for the fourth quarter. To sum up this segment, we are pleased with the commercial's ongoing strong performance. We are encouraged by the performance in our new delivery models and we remain confident that we have a solid strategy for growth in the region.

  • Let's now turn to our staffing operations outside the Americas, starting with EMEA. On a constant currency basis, revenue in EMEA was down 2% in the fourth quarter compared to last year, with commercial down 2% and PT up 3% year over year. It is worth noting that the quarter was negatively impacted by declining foreign currency exchange rates across the region and nominal currency revenue was down 11% year over year.

  • Our EMEA performance in the fourth quarter continues to reflect overall weak economic conditions as well as ongoing instability in Russia as we continue to see incremental declines compared to previous quarters. We achieved a solid growth of 3% in Western Europe, well above market performance, with Portugal up 29%, France up 9%, and Germany up 3%. In Eastern Europe, we were down year over year by 8% driven by Russia.

  • Fee-based income for the quarter was down 13% year over year with declines in both commercial and PT. EMEA's GP rate for the fourth quarter was 15.7% compared to 16.2% for the same period last year. The overall GP decline is primarily attributable to the decrease in firm fees as well as unfavorable country and customer mix.

  • Excluding restructuring, expenses decreased 2% compared to last year in constant currency. Netting it all out, EMEA reported a profit of $2.8 million for the fourth quarter. Though we expect market conditions in Europe to remain challenging for the foreseeable future, we are pleased with the performance delivered by our EMEA segment and we are confident that the adjustments we have made to our operative models over the best past several years will continue to support our strategy in this region.

  • Next, let's turn to APAC. Revenue for the APAC region grew by 11% in constant currency year over year, largely due to continued growth in temporary staffing volumes in Australia, Singapore, and India. Fees declined by 3% for the quarter compared to the prior year. Our gross profit rate for the region was 14.8%, down 170 basis points compared to Q4 last year. The decline was due to lower firm fees and temp margin erosion as well as the non-recurrence of a positive one-time workers compensation adjustment last year.

  • Our APAC region did a nice job of reducing expenses by 7% for the quarter, especially in headquarters cost, which were down 12% for the quarter year over year on constant currency. And we concluded the quarter with a profit of $2 million.

  • Now we will turn from our staffing results to the results for our outsourcing and consulting segment, OCG. As you may recall on our last earnings call, we said that we anticipated year-over-year fourth-quarter OCG revenue growth in the low teens and gross profit in the midteens. And for the quarter, revenue grew by 11% year over year and gross profit increased by 16%.

  • Sequentially, revenue was up 10% and gross profit grew 18% compared to the third quarter. We had growth in all three of OCG's key talent supply chain management practices, business process outsourcing, BPO, recruitment processing outsourcing, RPO, and contingent workforce outsourcing, CWO.

  • BPO revenue grew 23% for the quarter and gross profit increased by 25%. The year-over-year growth is due mainly to our contact center outsourcing business, Kelly Connect, which had gross profit growth of 48%. As anticipated, this strong Q4 growth follows our third-quarter investment in this business. We also experienced strong double-digit revenue and GP growth in BPO's legal outsourcing and stem businesses for the quarter.

  • In our RPO practice, revenue increased 6% year over year for the quarter and gross profit grew 24%, primarily due to growth in a few key accounts. In CWO, revenue increased 4% for the quarter and gross profit increased 6%. These overall CWO results reflected a decrease in our payroll process outsourcing business, more than offset by strong program management fees where revenue grew 15% and gross profit grew 20% for the quarter.

  • Overall, GP dollars up in OCG as revenue grew and the gross profit rate increased to 25.6% in the fourth quarter, a 100 basis point improvement over last year.

  • Expenses were up 13% year over year and OCG reflecting an overall growth, as well as our ongoing investments in this business. As a result of the strong double-digit growth in both GP and earnings, OCG brought in a record-setting operating profit of $9.7 million for the fourth quarter, an increase of 29% over last year.

  • The progress we are making in this segment is a key indicator of Kelly's success in meeting the growing demand for holistic workforce solutions. And we are pleased to continue making the necessary investments to support future revenue and GP growth in OCG.

  • Now I will turn the call over to Patricia who will cover our quarterly results for the entire Company.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Thank you, Carl. Revenue totaled $1.4 billion, up 6% in constant currency compared to the fourth quarter last year. That is up 3% in nominal currency with the difference caused by weakening European and Asian currency. Staffing placement fees were down 2% in constant currency year over year. As we continue to experience declines in EMEA, that more than offset the 10% growth we saw in the Americas.

  • Our gross profit rate was 16.3%, down 40 basis points compared to the fourth quarter last year. In constant currency, overall GP was up $7.9 million, about 3%. Our 2014 full-year GP rate was 16.3%, down 10 basis points from last year.

  • During the quarter, we recorded $6.2 million in restructuring related to our management simplification plan with $3.9 million in severance and $2.3 million in lease termination costs. Combined with the third quarter, we have recorded a total of $9.9 million for this plan in line with our initial expectations. We have executed this plan on schedule and on restructuring effort now brings additional efficiency to our operating models across the organization.

  • In the Americas segment, we have streamlined our local US field operations through the consolidation or closure of 52 branches, simplified our centralized large account delivery structure, and flattened our US management structure. In OCG, we have aligned resources more efficiently against areas that deliver rapid growth in return on investment.

  • And overall, we optimized our corporate headquarters operations. This management's application simplification plan has reduced our global workforce by over 100 permanent positions, and in the fourth quarter, we saw the first positive outcome with $2.3 million savings in SG&A.

  • We also confirmed that the total result of the management simplification plan is to reduce our future expense growth by $35 million of SG&A. This will allow the top line growth we have invested against to drop more efficiently to the bottom line. Excluding restructuring charges, expenses were up 4% year over year in constant currency. The increase is due to a number of factors, including higher cost due to salary increases, as well as additional headcount related to investments in PT business, development reps and recruiters, OCG, and centralized operations. These expenses were partially offset by initial savings generated by our management's simplification plan.

  • Excluding restructuring costs, earnings from operations were $8.8 million in the fourth quarter, compared with 2013 adjusted earnings of $9.9 million. Income tax benefit for the fourth quarter was $15.5 million compared to $8.2 million in 2013. The increase is driven by the retroactive reinstatement of US Work Opportunity credits in December. Excluding restructuring charges, diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2014 totaled $0.54 per share compared to $0.45 in 2013.

  • Looking ahead to 2015, for the full year, we expect constant currency revenue to be up 6% to 8%. Clearly, currency and overseas economies are a headwind and could trim about 3% off that topline. We expect the gross profit rate to be relatively flat and we expect SG&A to be up 4% to 5% due to merit increases, investments in OCG and PT, partially offset by the full-year savings related to our management simplification plan.

  • Discussions with our customers regarding the costs associated with implementation and compliance with the Affordable Care Act, have gone well. And, at this point in time, we do not expect to see a reduction to our margins as a result of our compliance with this legislation.

  • Our 2015 annual income tax rate is expected to be in the low 20% range, including work opportunity credits. As you may be aware, Work Opportunity credits expired again at the end of 2014, which puts us in the same situation we were in last year. And, at this point, we don't know if or when they will be renewed. If they are not renewed, our tax rate is expected to be 20 percentage points higher, and this also assumes that we don't receive any benefit on our tax reinvestments and Company-owned life insurance policies.

  • For the first quarter, we expect constant currency revenue to be up 6% to 7% on a year-over-year basis, with nominal currency to be lower than that. We expect our gross profit rate to be slightly down on a year-over-year basis and flat on a sequential basis. And we expect expenses to be up 3% to 4% on a year-over-year basis, so about half of our revenue growth as we see the full impact of our management's application simplification plan.

  • Turning to the balance sheet, I will make a few comments. Cash totaled $83 million compared to $126 million at year-end 2013. A portion of the decrease, about $20 million, was due to payments we received very late in our fiscal 2013, most of which were paid to suppliers in the first two days of fiscal 2014. Accounts receivable totaled $1.1 billion and increased $100 million compared to year-end 2013.

  • For the quarter, our global DSO was 54 days, up two days compared to last year, but down four days versus the third quarter. The increase was largely due to the timing of our month end cut off as well as extended terms in invoicing complexities for certain large customers. Accounts payable in accrued payroll and related taxes totaled $673 million, up $35 million compared to year-end 2013.

  • At the end of the fourth quarter, debt stood at $92 million, up $64 million from year-end 2013, debt to total capital was 10%, up from 3% at year-end 2013.

  • In our cash flow, we used $70 million of net cash for operating activities compared to $115 million generated from operating activities last year. The change is due mainly to revenue growth. Again, about $20 million was related to the payments which crossed over last year end. I will turn it back over to Carl for his concluding thoughts.

  • Carl Camden - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Patricia. There is no doubt that 2014 was a fast-paced year of change at Kelly and I am very pleased with our fourth-quarter performance and full-year results. The teams did well throughout a year of significant transition. We entered the year with a clear plan to adjust our go to market strategy and we made aggressive investments to better align our operating models.

  • In particular, we adjusted our approach to recruiting PT talent, strengthened the span and depth of our OCG practices, and finish moving our targeted large accounts into a centralized service delivery model.

  • There were significant investments and notable changes, so let me put some additional color around our progress and outlook. In the Americas, we adjusted our operating models to reflect key differences between selling into and recruiting for and servicing large versus local accounts. The scale, scope, and complexity of these accounts varies greatly and our new models ensure that we have the right resources and deployment strategies for each market segment.

  • In our local accounts, we created a centrally managed PT recruiter model that aligns our recruiters by niche, enabling them to build deeper, more highly specialized talent pipelines. This approach, coupled with the addition of specialized business development resources, enables us to sell and fill higher margin niche PT business.

  • To sharpen our focus, we closed more than 50 US branches and are concentrating our efforts where they are most likely to yield the highest return. With these transitions complete, we are pleased with the trends we are seeing in our local PT business and we expect local PT growth to accelerate in early 2015.

  • In our large accounts, we have finished moving our targeted accounts into a centralized model and are focusing our sales and recruiting teams more clearly on growing PT specialties within our large customer base. The increasing order of volume we are seeing in large accounts gives us confidence in our long-term PT goals as we finetune this delivery model over the course of 2015.

  • Looking at OCG's progress over the past year, we continued our investments to capture ongoing growth opportunities in this fast-moving market. Companies continue to see seek more holistic solutions for acquiring and managing their contingent and full-time workforce around the globe. And we are meeting that need through our talent supply chain management approach.

  • In 2014, we finished building out several key components of this approach and better aligned OCG's resources against our strategy, focusing on those areas that deliver the most optimal return on investment.

  • Looking ahead, we expect OCG revenue and gross profit growth in the 15% to 20% range in 2015 as we continue to invest in this rapidly growing segment.

  • As a whole, with a year of aggressive investment behind us, Kelly has emerged a more efficient, better aligned organization ready to deliver solid growth in 2015 and beyond, solid trends support our optimism. Given the sustained economic progress in the US and positive projections from recent jobs reports, we believe that demand for skilled workers will increase, that our staffing business will continue to deliver improved results, and that we will be able to capitalize on stronger market conditions in the year ahead in both staffing and OCG.

  • Most importantly for Kelly, we remain confident in our strategy and thankful to Kelly's teams around the world who commit to delivering the best workforce solutions every day. I am pleased that my voice lasted, and now Patricia and I will be happy to answer your questions.

  • John, the call can now be opened.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Tobey Sommer, SunTrust.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Carl, if you want to defer the questions to having someone else speak, I will understand.

  • Carl Camden - President and CEO

  • That is why George is here. He can answer them all. (laughter)

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • What is the -- frame, if you could, from a long-term perspective what your goals are for the investment in PT, maybe as an expression of where you want the percentage of revenue to be. Some sort of financial model impact that you are targeting. And I understand it will be over time. It is not a guidance thing for that this year, but that would be helpful. Thanks.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Tobey, I will start with this and then maybe George can fill in. No, what we really want to accomplish from the PT investments, frankly, as well as the OCG investments, is to have a more balanced model. Clearly, we have an enormous strength in our model for commercial. And we are proud of that and that is our fortress and we will continue to view that as a prime importance.

  • What we want to do is balance that with equivalent strength in PT and then an equivalent strength in OCG to present a more solutions-based set of services to our large customers. And I will let George weigh in as well.

  • George Corona - COO

  • Yes, Tobey, and when you look at it, what we are really trying to accomplish is, we look at the market and the market is transforming on us rapidly. Especially the PT market.

  • So what we have sought to do in order to get what Patricia said, which is a more balanced portfolio, we have to go at the market differently. So we bifurcated our system between delivering to our large customers, which have very different needs, to the local markets. And we are aligning our PT resources to be far more niche-oriented. In the past, we were, give us all your orders and we will see what we can do. Now, we are looking at where the opportunities are really exist for niche specialties and aligning both our sales resources and our recruiting candidate pipelines to align against that.

  • So in order to get to the more balanced portfolio, you have got to go at the market differently. And 2014 was all about realigning ourselves to be able to do that.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Right. And can you translate that realignment to a financial implication for the P&L?

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Just the more balanced operating earnings that come from the PT have it approach the impact that we have from commercial.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Okay. So sort of at the operating line or something like that.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Yes.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Okay. In RPO, within OCG, I was a little surprised that it didn't grow faster. I was wondering if you could comment about what new sales and new customer potential sales look like and maybe if existing clients are hitting their hiring targets or maybe not quite doing that. Thank you.

  • George Corona - COO

  • Yes. So when you look at it and look at it in the pieces that you brought up, clearly, answering your question about it, didn't grow as fast as what you expected it to. We have a few large clients whose needs were down for the quarter. Some of them driven by market conditions, so oil- and gas-related companies hiring less. And when you look at those, they drove the growth rate down. But when we look at the overall health of funnel within the business, that is overall up. And we expect, as the economy continues to improve, there will be more full-time hiring. So we are pretty bullish about that.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • And then, just ask a question about what you are hearing from larger customers with the currency changes, et cetera. Are US customers reining in at all their ambitions over the last two or three months in which the currency changes have been precipitous?

  • George Corona - COO

  • Less over currency; somewhat more over the instability, which I separate. They coincide in some countries, but questions about how much do you continue to invest in Eastern Europe and the Russia Zone and so on where you have instability accompanied by result of currency. But not very many customers talking specifically about currency changing significantly their strategy.

  • We watch oil and gas because we do particularly well in oil and gas. And there, it is not so much a currency issue, but just watching shifts in demand and production around the world and what that does.

  • Operator

  • John Healey, North Coast Research.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • Carl, I wanted to ask -- or you can defer to George as well -- about the oil and gas exposure. You said you do well there. I remember years ago, you announced a big OCG relationship with BP and I was just trying to understand the exposure the Company has and what you have seen maybe in the last six to eight weeks that signify any sort of rate of change or any sort of deviation from what you have seen in much of 2014.

  • George Corona - COO

  • Well, we certainly have seen, when we talk to our customers in that space, the ones that are heavily dependent on the upstream piece of the marketplace or the price of oil, they are becoming much more cautious about their hiring plans. But we don't have them coming out and saying, we are dumping lots of workers yet. We also have a good amount of our business in the oil and gas, in the downstream areas, where a lower price of oil actually helps them.

  • So they are going to help to offset a bit of the companies that are in the upstream part of the business. So right now, caution, but not panic.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • Is there a way to quantify the Company's exposure to either upstream or downstream? And if it is (multiple speakers).

  • George Corona - COO

  • We haven't done that. No.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • Okay. Is it a material size? Maybe I could ask it that way.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Well, one way to think about it is, yes, natural resources overall are one of our largest segments, but I think you can look at our performance and engineering, which is, frankly, what we supply most [into]. And you can see that we did really well in engineering this quarter. So again, we are not seeing -- I would say that the upstream and the downstream are balancing out and not creating either much of a -- as much a headwind as, in some cases, as tailwind.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And, Patricia, I wanted to ask your comments on the forecast for the SG&A (inaudible).

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Yes.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • I think you said 4% to 5% for the -- for 2015. Can you help us understand what number that is off? Is that off thane adjusted SG&A number? Is that off the GAAP member number? And is that 4% to 5% before the benefit of the $35 million in savings or is that post the benefit?

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Right. So it is versus 2014, excluding restructuring.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • And it includes the benefit of the $35 million management simplification plan and it is also worth noting that it is at constant currency. So to the extent that I mentioned the currency is a headwind on our revenue line, obviously, it would also reduce that impact on an SG&A line.

  • John Healy - Analyst

  • Okay. No. That makes a lot of sense. And then, wanted to ask, as you think about the 52 branches in the US -- and I remember years ago you guys did pretty large branch recalibration in Europe -- do you see more of that? Is that done or where do we stand as it relates to that opportunity?

  • George Corona - COO

  • Well, when you look at, John, we will always look to finetune our branch networks. So we don't have anything out there right now that says, let's go do another batch of 50, but, over time, especially as it relates to professional and technical, you need to be -- you don't have to be as present with brick and mortar to be able to reach the candidate community and be able to put them to work.

  • So we will look for opportunities that make us more efficient in our deployment of brick and mortar branches, but we will still be able to address the same market space. So look for refinement there.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Tobey Sommer.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Just one follow-up about your revenue guidance.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Yes.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Are there any adjustments to the comparisons since you gave us a growth rate and not a dollar figure? And anything that we need to know about what we are adding the growth to?

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • No. I think it is a pretty straight up number of 2014 comparison. Again, we did give you the number in constant currency because, with the way it has been fluctuating -- I mean, every day I could do a new number on it and it would change.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Oh, sure.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • So right now, that currency piece would be worth about three points. But what it is worth tomorrow, I wish I could tell you, but I can't. So there is nothing -- there is no big adjustments in the way the revenue is structured that would make that anything but a straight-up comparison, with this big caveat around currency.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Okay. And then, kind of two add-ons to my questions here. Carl, you mentioned that, yes, some customers are a little bit more cautious, probably about some economies being a little bit less stable, not necessarily the currency. So how do you feel about confidence extending a topline guidance goal for a full year, given at least some increased caution for customers?

  • George Corona - COO

  • I will start this and then let Patricia correct me. We are -- we have a huge proportion of our business in the United States. We have a pretty clear picture of what is happening inside the US economy. You are seeing, as I said in my comments, we are now seeing a steady stream of nice job growth. You have got pretty good models out there as to what is taking place in the US.

  • And then, on the OCG business, another big source of growth, you have an adoption curve which is favoring continued growth in that, regardless of what is taking place as more companies adopt that as a talent supply chain kind of management structure.

  • Would I have less confidence as I would look out at Europe and parts of Asia? Sure. But, they are also the very smallest parts of our business.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • The only thing I would add to that is, to the extent that our US-based -- which, is largely US headquartered cost companies in our large customer set -- experience uncertainty, one of the first places they turn to manage uncertainty is to their labor structure. And, overall, that can favor us.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Okay. And then, is it possible to isolate the expectation you have for growth this year, based on the local initiative in professional and technical? So for example, how much to growth would you expect that to contribute?

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • I will talk to that. So we expect both investments that we have made in large and local, which as George and Carl explained, are different types of investments, to bear fruit, especially in the PT side of the business, they are going to happen at different stages in the year. We are earlier on our local transformation and we expect it to deliver good results. In fact, we are already seeing traction in the fourth quarter for that.

  • So we expect that earlier in local. It is also the smaller piece, though. Large -- again, we are seeing some good orders on that side so very strong order generation. And we expect that to be a little bit later in the year, in about the second half -- midyear.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • And I will speak one last one and then I am done.

  • Patricia Little - CFO

  • Okay.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • In the RPO business, do you expect that growth to reaccelerate this year?

  • George Corona - COO

  • So when you take a look at that you have to look at the size of the large clients that we have. And we do expect, from what our visibility is to them, that they are still going to tend to be a little bit lower this year. Our new funnel, obviously we have a lot of confidence in that, but it takes time to implement them. So I think you would expect to see what you saw in the last quarter going forward for the next couple of quarters until we get new wins implemented.

  • Tobey Sommer - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for your help.

  • Operator

  • And we have no further questions in queue.

  • Carl Camden - President and CEO

  • Great. Thank you, John.

  • George Corona - COO

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.