Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Keurig Dr Pepper's earnings call for the third quarter of 2026. This conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位女士、先生,早安,感謝各位稍候。歡迎參加Keurig Dr Pepper 2026年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to introduce Chethan Mallela, Vice President of Investor Relations at Keurig Dr Pepper. Please go ahead.

    現在我想介紹Keurig Dr Pepper投資人關係副總裁Chethan Mallela。請開始。

  • Chethan Mallela - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chethan Mallela - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and hello, everyone. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release detailing our third quarter 2026 results, which we will discuss on today's call. An accompanying slide presentation is available and can be viewed in real time on the webcast.

    謝謝,大家好。今天稍早,我們發布新聞稿,詳述2026年第三季業績,我們將在今天的電話會議中討論。同時也提供隨附的簡報,可在網路直播中即時觀看。

  • Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that our remarks will include forward-looking statements which reflect KDP's judgment, assumptions and analysis only as of today. Our actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on a number of factors affecting KDP's business.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述,僅反映KDP截至今日的判斷、假設與分析。由於多項影響KDP業務的因素,我們的實際結果可能與目前預期有重大差異。

  • Except as required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements discussed today. For more information, please refer to our earnings release and the risk factors discussed in our most recent Form 10-K and our latest 10-Q, which will be filed with the SEC in the coming days.

    除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新今日所討論任何前瞻性陳述的義務。更多資訊請參閱我們的財報新聞稿,以及我們最近一期Form 10-K與最新10-Q中所討論的風險因素;10-Q將於未來幾天向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交。

  • Consistent with previous quarters, we will be discussing our Q3 performance on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, which reflects constant currency growth rates and excludes items affecting comparability. Definitions and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics are included in our earnings materials.

    與前幾季一致,我們將以非GAAP調整後基礎討論第三季表現,該基礎反映固定匯率成長率,並排除影響可比性的項目。相關定義以及與最直接可比GAAP指標的調節表,已包含在我們的財報資料中。

  • Here with us today to discuss our results ane Keurig Dr Pepper's Chief Executive Officer, Tim Cofer; and Chief Financial Officer, Anthony DiSilvestro. Russ Torres, the Head of KDP's Coffee operating unit and the future CEO of Global Coffee Co, will also provide brief prepared remarks. Given this is his first day at KDP, Russ will not participate in Q&A.

    今天與我們一同討論業績的有Keurig Dr Pepper執行長Tim Cofer,以及財務長Anthony DiSilvestro。KDP咖啡事業單位負責人、亦為Global Coffee Co未來執行長的Russ Torres,也將提供簡短的預先準備發言。由於今天是他加入KDP的第一天,Russ將不參與問答環節。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Tim.

    現在我把電話交給Tim。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Chethan, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with our third quarter results, which featured meaningful top and bottom line growth and healthy cash generation. We maintained our strong momentum in refreshment beverages, drove another quarter of solid performance in JDE Peet's and grew both top and bottom line in our US Coffee business.

    謝謝你,Chethan,各位早安。我們對第三季業績感到滿意,本季呈現顯著的營收與獲利成長,且現金創造能力健康。我們在即飲飲料(refreshment beverages)維持強勁動能,JDE Peet's再度交出穩健表現,同時我們的美國咖啡業務也實現營收與獲利雙成長。

  • Entering the home stretch of 2026, we remain on track to deliver our three key goals for the year: achieving our low double-digit EPS growth guidance, integrating JDE Peet's and capturing initial combination benefits and advancing key separation milestones. As we close out the year, our teams are focused on meeting our commitments while also reinvesting behind our brands and strategic priorities to set up our future companies for long-term success.

    進入2026年的最後衝刺階段,我們仍按計畫達成今年三項關鍵目標:達成我們所指引的低雙位數EPS成長、整合JDE Peet's並取得初步合併綜效,以及推進分拆的關鍵里程碑。在年底收官之際,我們的團隊專注於履行承諾,同時也持續加碼投資於品牌與策略重點,為未來兩家公司的長期成功奠定基礎。

  • Before turning to the quarter, I'd like to discuss an important announcement that we made last month. Following a rigorous global search, our Board of Directors named Russ Torres, as the future CEO of Global Coffee Co. He joined KDP today and will lead our coffee operating unit through separation.

    在談到本季之前,我想先說明我們上個月發布的一項重要公告。在嚴謹的全球遴選後,我們董事會任命Russ Torres為Global Coffee Co的未來執行長。他今天加入KDP,並將在分拆期間領導我們的咖啡事業單位。

  • Russ is a proven leader with a decades-long track record of cultivating consumer brands, executing large-scale transformations, driving growth across global portfolios and building high-performing teams. He brings the ideal combination of experiences and skills to drive value creation at Global Coffee Co., and we're excited to have him on board. His appointment also marks one of the most critical steps in the separation process, and I look forward to partnering with Russ as we prepare to launch two stand-alone companies.

    Russ是一位經驗證的領導者,擁有數十年培育消費者品牌、推動大規模轉型、帶動全球產品組合成長,以及打造高績效團隊的卓越紀錄。他具備推動Global Coffee Co價值創造所需的理想經驗與技能組合,我們很高興他加入團隊。他的任命也標誌著分拆流程中最關鍵的步驟之一,我期待與Russ合作,為兩家獨立公司的啟動做好準備。

  • Now on to our third quarter results. Total net sales grew 70%, which included the benefit of the JDE Peet's acquisition. Legacy KDP net sales increased at a high single-digit rate led by US refreshment beverages with KDP International and US Coffee also contributing. This increase was primarily driven by volume mix, along with positive net price realization.

    接著談第三季業績。總淨銷售額成長70%,其中包含收購JDE Peet's所帶來的貢獻。KDP既有業務淨銷售額以高個位數成長,主要由美國即飲飲料帶動,KDP國際與美國咖啡亦有貢獻。此成長主要由銷量/組合(volume mix)驅動,同時也受惠於正向的淨價格實現。

  • Operating income grew over 50%, driven by the acquisition contribution, disciplined pricing to offset continued inflation, meaningful cost savings and a onetime tailwind from tariff refunds. We delivered these results while also significantly increasing legacy KDP marketing and reinvesting behind JDE Peet's.

    營業利益成長超過50%,主要受收購貢獻、為抵銷持續通膨而採取的嚴謹定價、顯著的成本節省,以及關稅退稅帶來的一次性順風所驅動。在達成這些成果的同時,我們也大幅提高對KDP既有業務的行銷投入,並加碼再投資於JDE Peet's。

  • All in, including the below-the-line impact from financing costs, EPS increased over 20% in the quarter. With that, let me walk through the segments. In US refreshment beverages, net sales grew at a double-digit rate and operating income increased at a high single-digit rate.

    整體而言,包含融資成本對業外項目的影響,本季EPS成長超過20%。接下來我將逐一說明各事業部門。在美國即飲飲料方面,淨銷售額以雙位數成長,營業利益以高個位數成長。

  • Similar to recent quarters, momentum was broad-based and anchored by continued growth in our largest category, carbonated soft drinks. CSDs benefited from a resilient category and good execution across our portfolio.

    與近幾季相似,動能來自多面向,並以我們最大品類—碳酸軟性飲料—的持續成長為核心支撐。碳酸軟性飲料受惠於具韌性的品類表現,以及我們在產品組合上的良好執行。

  • Dr. Pepper led the way with net sales up double digits as the brand continued to gain market share. Our Dr Pepper Zero franchise remained a standout with retail sales growing 25% in the quarter and now exceeding $1 billion on an annualized basis.

    Dr Pepper表現領先,淨銷售額以雙位數成長,品牌持續提升市占率。我們的Dr Pepper Zero系列依然表現突出,本季零售銷售成長25%,年化規模現已超過10億美元。

  • Importantly, we still have plenty of runway in this key platform. We also made progress in away from home, with volume-led net sales growth during Q3. While Dr Pepper is the most widely available fountain beverage across major food service chains in the US, the brand still has attractive white space for our teams to pursue.

    重要的是,這個關鍵平台仍有很大的成長空間。我們在外食通路(away from home)也取得進展,第三季在銷量帶動下實現淨銷售成長。雖然Dr Pepper已是美國主要餐飲連鎖中最普及的現調飲料(fountain beverage)之一,但品牌仍有具吸引力的市場空白可供團隊開拓。

  • For example, this quarter, we secured new fountain distribution at Jersey Mikes and we see a path to expand our presence in additional chains as well. This incremental distribution opportunity should serve as another ongoing tailwind for the brand.

    例如,本季我們在Jersey Mike's取得新的現調飲料通路鋪貨,我們也看見在其他連鎖體系擴大布局的路徑。這項增量通路機會可望成為品牌另一項持續性的順風。

  • At its core, the success of Dr. Pepper is rooted in its distinctive brand positioning, which we continually reinforce with compelling marketing. During Q3, we launched the latest installment of our Fansville college football campaign, which once again featured countless insights that resonate in the world of passionate college football fandom.

    歸根結底,Dr Pepper的成功源自其獨特的品牌定位,而我們透過具吸引力的行銷持續強化這一點。第三季,我們推出Fansville大學美式足球行銷活動的最新篇章,再次呈現大量洞察,貼近熱情大學足球球迷文化的共鳴點。

  • But this year, we raised the game with more sophisticated capabilities, including precision targeting, more personalized content and a greater presence on social platforms. Early results are encouraging with the campaign delivering a double-digit improvement in return on ad spend versus the prior year, reflecting our ability to reach both existing and high-value prospective consumers with relevant and authentic messaging.

    但今年我們進一步升級,導入更成熟的能力,包括精準投放、更個人化的內容,以及在社群平台上更高的曝光。初步成果令人鼓舞:相較去年,本次活動的廣告投資報酬率(ROAS)提升達雙位數,反映我們能以相關且真實的訊息,同時觸及既有消費者與高價值潛在消費者。

  • Among our other CSD brands, Canada Dry had a good quarter with net sales also up double digits. Like Dr. Pepper, Canada Dry continues to benefit from purposeful brand marketing and impactful innovation, including this year's strawberry fruit splash line extension, which performed well in the quarter.

    在其他碳酸軟性飲料品牌方面,Canada Dry本季表現良好,淨銷售額同樣以雙位數成長。與Dr Pepper相同,Canada Dry持續受惠於有目的性的品牌行銷與具影響力的創新,包括今年推出的草莓Fruit Splash系列延伸產品,本季表現亮眼。

  • We also recently applied Dr Pepper and Canada Dry's proven growth playbook to 7UP, with a brand refresh that includes new graphics, a product reformulation and a clever marketing campaign repositioning the brand as a line forward alternative to other citrus sodas. While it's still early days, we've been pleased with the initial retailer and consumer response to 7UP activity.

    我們也近期將Dr Pepper與Canada Dry已驗證的成長打法應用到7UP,進行品牌更新,包括全新視覺設計、產品配方調整,以及一個巧妙的行銷活動,將品牌重新定位為相較其他柑橘汽水更「走在前面」的替代選擇。雖然仍在初期階段,但我們對零售商與消費者對7UP活動的初步反應感到滿意。

  • In energy drinks, we achieved two notable milestones in the quarter. First, our portfolio surpassed a 10% market share position in the category, up from approximately 6% when we acquired GHOST just a couple of years ago. This progress has been driven by gains across the three major brands in our portfolio.

    在能量飲料方面,我們本季達成兩項重要里程碑。第一,我們的產品組合在該品類的市占率突破10%,相較於我們在僅兩年前收購GHOST時約6%的水準大幅提升。這項進展來自我們產品組合中三大主要品牌的市占提升。

  • GHOST, Bloom and C4, each of which maintains considerable untapped potential. Second, GHOST became our fourth retail sales billion-dollar refreshment beverage brand, joining Dr Pepper, Canada Dry and Mats, which underscores the brand's consumer appeal.

    GHOST、Bloom 與 C4,各自都仍保有相當可觀的未開發潛力。第二,GHOST 成為我們第四個零售銷售額達十億美元等級的提神飲料品牌,與 Dr Pepper、Canada Dry 與 Mats 並列,凸顯該品牌對消費者的吸引力。

  • Got performance in the quarter was driven by continued distribution gains and accelerating velocities, including benefits from innovation. For example, the brand's A&W Root Beer limited time offering has resonated with consumers and proven incremental to the franchise, and we look forward to adding both this flavor and GHOST 7UP to our permanent lineup starting in 2027.

    Got 在本季的表現,主要受惠於持續的通路擴張與加速的銷售動能(velocity),其中也包含創新帶來的效益。例如,該品牌的 A&W Root Beer 限時口味深受消費者共鳴,並證明能為品牌系列帶來增量;我們也期待自 2027 年起,將此口味與 GHOST 7UP 一併納入我們的常態產品陣容。

  • Finally, in hydration, our major brands performed well, reflecting our complementary portfolio's ability to address a range of consumer needs and occasions. Electrolit led the way in Q3 with over 40% retail sales growth driven by healthy velocities, continued distribution gains and effective display execution.

    最後,在補水品類方面,我們的主要品牌表現良好,反映出我們互補式產品組合能滿足多元的消費者需求與使用情境。Electrolit 在第三季表現領先,零售銷售額成長超過 40%,動能來自健康的銷售速度、持續的通路擴張,以及有效的陳列執行。

  • The brand holds a 9% market share of sports drinks, which has more than doubled since the KDP distribution partnership began three years ago, and has now established itself as the clear leader in the attractive rapid hydration subcategory, with further expansion opportunities still ahead.

    該品牌在運動飲料市場的市占率達 9%,自三年前與 KDP 展開通路合作以來已超過倍增;目前也已在具吸引力的快速補水子品類中確立為明確的領導者,未來仍有進一步擴張的機會。

  • We also continued to grow our water brands, led by Vita Coco, Avion and Polar. Overall, Q3 marked our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit net sales growth in US refreshment beverages, underscoring the portfolio's strength across key categories, including powerful brand equities, differentiated distribution infrastructure and sharp in-market execution.

    我們也持續推動旗下水類品牌成長,主要由 Vita Coco、Avion 與 Polar 帶動。整體而言,第三季是我們在美國提神飲料業務連續第八個季度實現雙位數淨銷售成長,凸顯產品組合在關鍵品類的實力,包括強勁的品牌資產、差異化的通路基礎設施,以及精準的市場端執行。

  • Now to coffee. We feel good about our business in aggregate with JDE Peet's delivering results ahead of our expectations, while US Coffee navigated a challenging category environment. Starting with US Coffee, although segment performance improved sequentially from the first half, the US single-serve subcategory has been softer than we anticipated, with value-oriented coffee formats continuing to outperform. We view this dynamic as largely a reflection of the current macro backdrop, but it impacted our quarterly results.

    接著談咖啡。整體而言,我們對業務表現感到樂觀:JDE Peet's 的成果優於我們預期,而美國咖啡業務則在具挑戰的品類環境中前行。先從美國咖啡談起,雖然該部門表現較上半年呈現逐季改善,但美國單杯(single-serve)子品類的走勢比我們預期更疲弱,偏向高性價比的咖啡形式仍持續跑贏。我們認為這種動態主要反映當前的總體環境背景,但它確實影響了我們本季的業績。

  • Within this context, net sales grew at a low single-digit rate in the quarter, led by volume/mix, which included a benefit from Peet's K-Cup pods. This volume mix growth more than offset lower net price in the period, which was driven by reinvestment of moderating commodity costs to support affordability.

    在此背景下,本季淨銷售以低個位數成長,主要由銷量/組合(volume/mix)帶動,其中包含 Peet's K-Cup 膠囊帶來的助益。這項銷量/組合成長,已足以抵銷本期較低的淨售價;淨售價下滑主要是因我們將趨緩的原物料成本回饋再投資,以支持可負擔性。

  • By product line, brewer shipments accelerated sequentially in Q3 and grew at a double-digit rate. Our precision marketing is delivering attractive returns and consumers are responding well to our new brewer visual identity, particularly for our refreshed K-Mini Made family. This progress is important because brewers are foundational to the Keurig ecosystem and serve as one of the leading indicators for future pod demand.

    以產品線來看,沖煮機(brewer)出貨在第三季逐季加速,並以雙位數成長。我們的精準行銷帶來具吸引力的投資報酬,消費者也對我們新的沖煮機視覺識別反應良好,特別是針對我們更新的 K-Mini Made 系列。這項進展很重要,因為沖煮機是 Keurig 生態系的基礎,亦是未來膠囊需求的主要領先指標之一。

  • Pod shipments also returned to slight growth in the quarter. This was primarily driven by company-specific factors, including the benefit of Peet's K-Cup pods, which we're beginning to activate through expanded price pack architecture and enhanced commercial programming as well as new distribution wins.

    膠囊(pod)出貨在本季也回到小幅成長。這主要由公司特定因素所驅動,包括 Peet's K-Cup 膠囊的助益;我們正透過擴大價格/包裝架構(price pack architecture)、強化商業推廣方案,以及新增通路勝出,開始加速啟動其動能。

  • We also recently reached a key milestone for Keurig with the launch of our new Keurig Alta system. Alta is a premium brewer that uses a plastic-free and aluminum-free consumable to allow consumers to conveniently brew barista quality beverages at home. This modern brewer can produce the full array of coffee health beverages spanning from high-pressure espressos to low-pressure drib coffee.

    我們近期也達成 Keurig 的一項重要里程碑:推出全新的 Keurig Alta 系統。Alta 是一款高階沖煮機,採用不含塑膠與不含鋁的耗材,讓消費者能在家中便利地沖煮出咖啡師等級的飲品。這款現代化沖煮機可製作完整的咖啡飲品範圍,從高壓義式濃縮到低壓滴濾咖啡皆可。

  • And with the integrated frother supports delicious cappuccinos, macchiatos and lattes. Through Alta, we expect to deepen engagement with existing households, broaden our appeal to additional coffee drinkers and ultimately reinforce our single-serve leadership in North America. Our initial launch plan is purposefully measured and focused exclusively on direct-to-consumer channels, but we see significant long-term potential for this disruptive platform.

    此外,整合式奶泡器可支援製作美味的卡布奇諾、瑪奇朵與拿鐵。透過 Alta,我們預期能加深既有家庭用戶的參與度,擴大對更多咖啡飲用者的吸引力,並最終鞏固我們在北美單杯市場的領導地位。我們的初期上市計畫刻意採取審慎節奏,並專注於直面消費者(DTC)通路,但我們看見此顛覆性平台具備顯著的長期潛力。

  • Turning to profit. Segment operating income grew at a double-digit rate, aided by onetime tariff refunds. Underlying profit trends also improved from the first half, but at a more modest pace than we had expected given the category dynamics I described. Shifting to our other coffee segment.

    接著談獲利。部門營業利益以雙位數成長,並受一次性關稅退稅所助益。剔除一次性因素後的獲利趨勢也較上半年改善,但改善幅度低於我們在前述品類動態下的預期。接著轉到我們另一個咖啡部門。

  • JDE Peet's delivered net sales of approximately $2.6 billion and operating income of $480 million. Two factors shaped segment top line performance in the quarter. First, on pricing, we have now fully lapped prior year increases. In addition, consistent with the pass-through nature of some of our coffee formats, we reduced prices in certain regions and products to reflect lower coffee costs. While these reductions weighed on net sales, they had a limited impact on profit, our disciplined implementation.

    JDE Peet's 的淨銷售約為 26 億美元,營業利益為 4.8 億美元。本季有兩項因素形塑了該部門的營收表現。第一,在定價方面,我們如今已完全度過(fully lapped)去年同期的漲價基期。此外,符合我們部分咖啡形式具成本轉嫁(pass-through)特性的做法,我們在某些地區與產品下調價格,以反映較低的咖啡成本。雖然這些降價對淨銷售造成壓力,但在我們紀律性的執行下,對獲利的影響有限。

  • Second, marketplace performance strengthened, driven by the successful resolution of retailer negotiations and solid execution. We're encouraged by the improving market share trends we've seen recently for key brands, including Jacobs, (inaudible) and some of our local icons.

    第二,市場端表現轉強,主要受惠於零售商談判順利解決以及穩健的執行。我們對近期在關鍵品牌上看到的市占改善趨勢感到鼓舞,包括 Jacobs、(聽不清)以及部分在地指標品牌。

  • Innovation was a positive contributor to this performance, helped by our platforming strategy to quickly scale promising products across multiple brands and geographies. For example, our well-received liquid espresso concentrate platform continued to expand in the quarter and is now available in 20 countries across a number of leading brands. We're applying the same approach to our more recent Machalate innovation, which launched in late Q2 and rolled out further in Q3.

    創新對此表現亦有正向貢獻,並受惠於我們的平台化策略,能將具潛力的產品快速擴展至多個品牌與地理市場。例如,我們廣受好評的液態濃縮義式(liquid espresso concentrate)平台在本季持續擴張,目前已在 20 個國家、跨多個領導品牌上市。我們也將同樣的方法應用於較新的 Machalate 創新產品;該產品於第二季末推出,並在第三季進一步擴大推廣。

  • Platforms like these extend our portfolio into incremental occasions, many of which skew towards younger consumers and should support growth over time. Moving to operating income. Segment profitability was strong, primarily reflecting disciplined pricing and our team's agile execution in a dynamic environment.

    這類平台可將我們的產品組合延伸至新增的使用情境,其中許多更偏向年輕消費者,並應能隨時間推動成長。接著談營業利益。部門獲利能力強勁,主要反映紀律性的定價,以及團隊在動態環境中的敏捷執行。

  • Finally, KDP International delivered solid results with net sales growing at a high single-digit rate, led by good momentum in refreshment beverages across our markets. In Mexico, net sales increased at a double-digit rate, primarily driven by pricing related to the recent beverage tax as well as modest volume growth from healthy underlying demand and share trends.

    最後,KDP International 交出穩健成果,淨銷售以高個位數成長,主要由各市場提神飲料的良好動能帶動。在墨西哥,淨銷售以雙位數成長,主要由近期飲料稅帶來的定價因素驅動,並受惠於健康的基礎需求與市占趨勢所帶來的溫和銷量成長。

  • Peñafiel was a standout performer in the region, with strength across both the core mineral water and the (inaudible) and twist line extensions.

    Peñafiel 在該地區表現突出,核心礦泉水以及(聽不清)與 twist 系列延伸產品線皆展現強勁動能。

  • We also grew nicely in Canada, led by energy drinks and ready-to-drink teas. Segment operating income declined very modestly as the net sales increase was offset by inflationary pressures and investment phasing. Overall, our third quarter results demonstrated good progress. We delivered on our plans, invested to strengthen each of our future businesses and advanced critical separation milestones.

    我們在加拿大也有不錯的成長,主要由能量飲料與即飲茶帶動。部門營業利益小幅下滑,因淨銷售成長被通膨壓力與投資時點配置所抵銷。整體而言,我們第三季的結果展現良好進展。我們按計畫執行,投入資源以強化各項未來業務,並推進關鍵的分拆里程碑。

  • I'll now turn the call briefly over to Russ, after which Anthony will walk through our financial results and outlook in more detail.

    接下來我將把電話會議簡短交給 Russ,之後 Anthony 會更詳細說明我們的財務結果與展望。

  • Russ Torres - Chief Executive Officer - Global Coffee Co

    Russ Torres - Chief Executive Officer - Global Coffee Co

  • Thank you, Tim. I'm honored by the opportunity to serve as the future CEO of Global Coffee Co, and to help the company shape the future of the coffee category. Over the past couple of months, I've done a lot of homework and build conviction in the value creation opportunity, and that is the key reason I'm here.

    謝謝你,Tim。能有機會擔任 Global Coffee Co 未來的執行長,並協助公司塑造咖啡品類的未來,我深感榮幸。過去幾個月,我做了大量功課,並對創造價值的機會建立了堅定信念,這也是我在此的關鍵原因。

  • I believe coffee is an attractive category with significant untapped potential. It's large, resilient and part of the daily routines and rituals of over 1 billion consumers around the world. The category has grown volume consistently and benefits from structural consumer trend tailwinds that will support its long-term prospects.

    我相信咖啡是一個具吸引力且仍有大量未開發潛力的品類。它規模龐大、具韌性,並已融入全球超過 10 億名消費者的日常作息與儀式。該品類的銷量長期穩定成長,並受惠於結構性的消費者趨勢順風,將支撐其長期前景。

  • But most of all, experiences with coffee can create an emotional connection with people. And as a result, the coffee category is responsive to brand building and innovation in ways that can foster the creation of a powerful brand franchises with compelling economics.

    但最重要的是,與咖啡相關的體驗能與人們建立情感連結。因此,咖啡品類對品牌打造與創新具有高度回應性,能以有利的經濟性促成具強大影響力的品牌版圖(brand franchises)的形成。

  • And Global Coffee Co. is well positioned in this attractive category. We will launch with many compelling assets and strengths, including powerful leading brands and scale positions across formats, geographies and channels. Global Coffee Co. possesses deep capabilities in critical areas like sourcing, blending, marketing and innovation.

    而 Global Coffee Co. 在這個具吸引力的品類中具備良好定位。我們將以多項具吸引力的資產與優勢啟動,包括在不同形式、地理區域與通路中具領先力的強勢品牌與規模地位。Global Coffee Co. 在採購、調配、行銷與創新等關鍵領域擁有深厚能力。

  • And perhaps the biggest difference maker will be unleashing the power of our people as a focused stand-alone coffee company. I've already met with a number of coffee operating unit leaders and have been very impressed with the talent and the capabilities across the organization. The energy they're showing for the future and the passion for the new mission is infectious.

    或許最大的差異化因素,將是以一家專注的獨立咖啡公司之姿,釋放我們人才的力量。我已與多位咖啡事業單位的領導者會面,對整個組織的人才與能力印象深刻。他們對未來展現的能量,以及對新使命的熱情,極具感染力。

  • Over the coming months, I'll be immersing myself in the business and spending time with our employees, customers and partners and working with the team to further develop and refine the strategy and operating plans for what will be the world's leading pure-play coffee company. I'm eager to get started, and I look forward to sharing our plans with you in more detail as we move into 2027.

    在接下來幾個月,我將深入投入業務,與我們的員工、客戶與合作夥伴共度時間,並與團隊合作,進一步制定與精煉策略與營運計畫,打造全球領先的純咖啡(pure-play)公司。我迫不及待要開始,也期待在我們邁入 2027 年之際,能與各位更詳細分享我們的計畫。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony.

    接下來我把時間交給 Anthony。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Russ, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by discussing our consolidated third quarter results. Total company net sales grew 70.1% in the quarter, including the benefit of the JDE Peet's acquisition, which closed in April.

    謝謝你,Russ,各位早安。我先從我們合併第三季業績談起。本季公司整體淨銷售額成長 70.1%,其中包含 4 月完成交割的 JDE Peet's 併購所帶來的貢獻。

  • Excluding the JDE Peet's contribution, legacy KDP net sales grew 8.6% with volume/mix contributing 6.5 percentage points and net price realization adding 2.1 points. Consolidated gross margin was 48.7%, 590 basis points below the prior year, primarily due to the mix impact of adding JDE Peet's to the portfolio.

    若排除 JDE Peet's 的貢獻,KDP 既有業務淨銷售額成長 8.6%,其中銷量/組合貢獻 6.5 個百分點,淨價格實現(net price realization)增加 2.1 個百分點。合併毛利率為 48.7%,較去年同期下降 590 個基點,主要因將 JDE Peet's 納入產品組合所造成的組合影響。

  • Excluding the acquisition impact, legacy KDP gross margin expanded 20 basis points including the benefit from tariff refunds. In the absence of tariff refunds, gross margin would have contracted as continued inflationary pressures more than offset the margin benefits of pricing and cost savings.

    若排除併購影響,KDP 既有業務毛利率擴張 20 個基點,其中包含關稅退稅的挹注。若沒有關稅退稅,毛利率將會下滑,因持續的通膨壓力超過了定價與成本節省所帶來的毛利改善。

  • SG&A as a percent of sales improved 320 basis points. Excluding the mix impact from JDE Peet's, legacy KDP SG&A deleveraged 10 basis points as a double-digit increase in marketing more than offset productivity savings and disciplined cost management. In total, Q3 operating income increased 52.5%.

    銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)占銷售比重改善 320 個基點。若排除 JDE Peet's 的組合影響,KDP 既有業務 SG&A 槓桿反向(deleveraged)10 個基點,因行銷費用雙位數成長,超過了生產力節省與嚴謹成本管理的效益。整體而言,第三季營業利益成長 52.5%。

  • This included a $99 million onetime benefit from tariff refunds or $0.05 per share, which was disproportionately weighted to our US Coffee segment. Including the below-the-line impact from acquisition financing, EPS grew 22.2% to $0.66.

    其中包含關稅退稅帶來的一次性利益 9,900 萬美元,或每股 0.05 美元,且主要集中在我們的美國咖啡事業部。包含併購融資所帶來的業外(below-the-line)影響後,每股盈餘(EPS)成長 22.2% 至 0.66 美元。

  • Turning now to our segment results. US Refreshment Beverages net sales increased 10.9%, driven by 7.2 percentage points of volume/mix growth and 3.7 points of net price realization. Gains were broad-based, led by energy, CSDs, sports hydration and waters.

    接著看各事業部表現。美國即飲飲料(US Refreshment Beverages)淨銷售額成長 10.9%,其中 7.2 個百分點來自銷量/組合成長,3.7 個百分點來自淨價格實現。成長動能廣泛,主要由能量飲料、碳酸飲料(CSDs)、運動補水與瓶裝水帶動。

  • Segment operating income grew 8.3% and as higher net sales and productivity savings more than offset cost inflation and higher SG&A, including increased marketing. Moving to US Coffee, where net sales increased 2.7%. Volume/mix contributed 6.9 percentage points, including a benefit from our recent reporting ship to recognize the full Peet's K-Cup pod economics in the segment.

    事業部營業利益成長 8.3%,較高的淨銷售額與生產力節省,抵銷了成本通膨與較高的 SG&A(包含增加的行銷投入)。再看美國咖啡(US Coffee),淨銷售額成長 2.7%。銷量/組合貢獻 6.9 個百分點,其中包含我們近期調整申報出貨(reporting ship)的效益,以在該事業部認列 Peet's K-Cup 膠囊的完整經濟效益。

  • Within volume/mix, brewer shipments accelerated sequentially and increased 16.7% versus the prior year. This was driven by the combination of a strengthening coffee maker category backdrop and improving Keurig volume share trends as the quarter progressed as well as lapping prior year retailer destocking activities.

    在銷量/組合中,咖啡機出貨量較前一季加速,並較去年同期成長 16.7%。這主要由咖啡機品類環境轉強,以及本季進行期間 Keurig 銷量市占趨勢改善所帶動,同時也受惠於去年同期零售商去庫存活動的比較基期。

  • Odd shipments increased 0.3%, driven by the contribution from Peet's K-Cup pods as well as some new private label distribution wins. Net price realization reduced net sales by 4.2 percentage points, partially offsetting volume/mix growth. This reflected reinvestment of moderating green coffee costs through trade spending and promotions to optimize near-term price points and price gaps.

    膠囊(pod)出貨量成長 0.3%,主要來自 Peet's K-Cup 膠囊的貢獻,以及部分自有品牌(private label)新增通路分銷的勝出。淨價格實現使淨銷售額減少 4.2 個百分點,部分抵銷了銷量/組合成長。這反映出在生豆咖啡成本趨緩下,我們透過通路費用(trade spending)與促銷進行再投資,以優化短期價格點與價差。

  • Turning to profit. Segment operating income increased 11.4%, which included the benefit of onetime tariff refunds. Excluding the refunds, underlying profit trends also improved from the first half as favorable volume mix, productivity savings and cost synergies more than offset lower net price realization, inflationary pressures and increased marketing.

    接著看獲利。事業部營業利益成長 11.4%,其中包含一次性關稅退稅的效益。若排除退稅,基礎獲利趨勢也較上半年改善,因有利的銷量組合、生產力節省與成本綜效,超過了較低的淨價格實現、通膨壓力與增加的行銷投入。

  • Looking to Q4, we anticipate a further improvement in the underlying profit trend. However, given the category challenges that Tim described earlier, we are now expecting a more gradual recovery than we had initially planned, which is reflected in our full year guidance.

    展望第四季,我們預期基礎獲利趨勢將進一步改善。然而,考量 Tim 先前提到的品類挑戰,我們目前預期復甦將較原先規劃更為循序漸進,這也反映在我們的全年指引中。

  • Our JDE Peet's segment generated $2.6 billion in net sales and $480 million in operating income in the third quarter. Segment profitability was primarily driven by favorable pricing net of cost inflation, robust productivity savings and cost synergies. Looking to Q4, we expect these drivers to persist, though the price/cost benefit should moderate from Q3 levels.

    我們的 JDE Peet's 事業部在第三季創造 26 億美元淨銷售額與 4.8 億美元營業利益。事業部獲利主要由有利的定價(扣除成本通膨後)、強勁的生產力節省與成本綜效所驅動。展望第四季,我們預期這些驅動因素將持續,但價格/成本帶來的效益應會較第三季水準趨於溫和。

  • Overall, we expect to have flexibility to reinvest in the business while continuing to deliver healthy profitability. In our KDP International segment, net sales grew 7.6% driven by 5.7 percentage points from net price realization and a 1.9 point contribution from volume mix.

    整體而言,我們預期在持續交出健康獲利能力的同時,仍具備再投資於業務的彈性。在 KDP International 事業部,淨銷售額成長 7.6%,其中 5.7 個百分點來自淨價格實現,銷量組合貢獻 1.9 個百分點。

  • Segment operating income decreased 0.6%. Benefits from higher net sales and productivity savings were offset by elevated costs including green coffee inflation and the Mexico beverage tax as well as increased marketing investments.

    事業部營業利益下滑 0.6%。較高淨銷售額與生產力節省的效益,被較高成本所抵銷,包括生豆咖啡通膨與墨西哥飲料稅,以及增加的行銷投資。

  • Looking ahead, we expect a consistent profit growth contribution from the KDP International segment over time, including an improved trend in Q4. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. We generated healthy free cash flow of $1 billion in the third quarter, driven by higher EBITDA and good cash conversion, including continued tight working capital management, particularly in inventory.

    展望未來,我們預期 KDP International 事業部將隨時間推移,持續對獲利成長做出穩定貢獻,且第四季趨勢將改善。接著談資產負債表與現金流。第三季我們產生 10 億美元的健康自由現金流,主要由較高的 EBITDA 與良好的現金轉換所帶動,其中包含持續嚴格的營運資金管理,特別是在存貨方面。

  • We continue to target approximately $2.5 billion in free cash flow for the full year. During the quarter, we also announced an agreement to monetize our minority equity stake in Giovanni and sell a noncore manufacturing facility, which will generate approximately $925 million in pretax proceeds or approximately $780 million after tax.

    我們仍以全年約 25 億美元自由現金流為目標。本季我們也宣布一項協議,將我們在 Giovanni 的少數股權投資變現,並出售一座非核心製造設施,預計將帶來約 9.25 億美元稅前收入,或稅後約 7.8 億美元。

  • We received a portion of the proceeds in Q3, expect to balance by year-end and plan to use the full amount for debt paydown. As a result of our quarterly performance and this agreement, we ended the quarter with pro forma management leverage of 4.1 times, improving from our mid-year level. We expect to further reduce leverage by year-end, driven by cash generation, EBITDA growth and the contribution from our (inaudible).

    我們已在第三季收到部分款項,預期在年底前收取餘額,並計畫將全數用於償還債務。受惠於本季表現與該協議,我們在季末的備考(pro forma)管理槓桿倍數為 4.1 倍,較年中水準改善。我們預期在年底前進一步降低槓桿,主要由現金創造、EBITDA 成長以及我們的(聽不清)所帶動。

  • Strengthening our balance sheet remains a key focus, and we will continue to evaluate opportunities to accelerate deleveraging. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. In the near term, we are focused on investing in our business, maintaining our current dividend and paying down debt, consistent with our commitment to investment-grade credit ratings for KDP and our two future companies.

    強化資產負債表仍是關鍵重點,我們將持續評估加速去槓桿的機會。我們的資本配置優先順序維持不變。短期內,我們聚焦於投資業務、維持目前股利並償還債務,這與我們對 KDP 以及未來兩家公司的投資等級信用評等承諾一致。

  • Over time, we expect each business to deleverage quickly, which will provide greater capital deployment flexibility over the medium to long term. With that, let me close with our full year guidance.

    隨著時間推移,我們預期各項業務都將迅速去槓桿化,這將在中長期提供更大的資本部署彈性。基於此,讓我以我們的全年指引作結。

  • For the total company, we continue to expect net sales in a $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion range, which now includes an approximately $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion contribution from JDE Peet's. On the bottom line, we are reaffirming our outlook for low double-digit constant currency eps growth, which now includes an anticipated 7 to 8 percentage points contribution from the JDE Peet's acquisition.

    就整體公司而言,我們仍預期淨銷售額介於259億至264億美元之間,其中現已包含JDE Peet's約83億至84億美元的貢獻。在獲利端,我們重申對低雙位數固定匯率EPS成長的展望,其中現已包含JDE Peet's收購案預期帶來的7至8個百分點貢獻。

  • We also now expect legacy KDP EPS to grow 3% to 5%, reflecting our revised expectations for US Coffee. Based on current rates, we now expect an approximately 0.5 percentage point FX tailwind to total company net sales and EPS growth for the full year.

    我們也預期傳統KDP的EPS將成長3%至5%,反映我們對美國咖啡業務的修正預期。以目前匯率計算,我們現在預期全年外匯將為整體公司淨銷售額與EPS成長帶來約0.5個百分點的順風。

  • Moving to below-the-line metrics. We are now assuming the following: interest expense of approximately $1.09 billion to $1.11 billion, an effective tax rate of approximately 22% to 23%, approximately 1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares outstanding, approximately $190 million in pretax coffee JV costs, and convertible preferred P&L costs based on the securities share of earnings. In summary, our third quarter results were healthy, and we remain on track to deliver our full year commitments.

    接著看損益表線下指標。我們目前假設如下:利息費用約10.9億至11.1億美元,有效稅率約22%至23%,稀釋加權平均流通股數約13.7億股,咖啡合資企業稅前成本約1.9億美元,以及可轉換優先股損益成本(依證券應占盈餘計算)。總結而言,我們第三季結果表現穩健,且仍按計畫達成全年承諾。

  • With that, I will turn the call back to Tim for closing remarks.

    接下來,我把電話交回Tim作結語。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Anthony. I'd like to close with an update on our separation planning, which is an area where we've made significant progress this year. We closed the JDE Peet's acquisition and advanced our integration work. We established the organizational structures and leadership teams for each future company. We're capturing meaningful synergies in our first few quarters as a combined company, and we put in place an operating model that allows our teams to increasingly function on a stand-alone basis.

    謝謝,Anthony。我想以我們分拆規劃的最新進展作結,這是我們今年取得顯著進展的領域。我們完成了JDE Peet's收購並推進整合作業。我們已為未來各公司建立組織架構與領導團隊。作為合併後公司,我們在前幾個季度已取得具意義的協同效益,並建立了一套營運模式,使我們的團隊能日益以獨立運作的方式運行。

  • Looking ahead, we have a clear line of sight to the remaining work. This includes appointing a full Board for each company, establishing corporate names and identities and finalizing strategies and capital structures. Throughout this process, we will stay focused on executing our plans to deliver our financial commitments while also continuing to serve our consumers and customers with excellence.

    展望未來,我們對剩餘工作有清晰的可視性。這包括為各公司任命完整董事會、建立公司名稱與品牌識別,並完成策略與資本結構的定案。在整個過程中,我們將持續專注於執行計畫以達成財務承諾,同時也持續以卓越表現服務消費者與客戶。

  • Overall, we remain on track for our planned separation in early 2027, with exact timing subject to market conditions, among other factors. When complete, our separation will create two independent public companies, with advantaged competitive positions, focused strategies and the flexibility to pursue their own distinct value creation opportunities.

    整體而言,我們仍按計畫在2027年初完成分拆,確切時點將視市場狀況等因素而定。分拆完成後,將形成兩家獨立的上市公司,具備有利的競爭地位、聚焦的策略,以及追求各自獨特價值創造機會的彈性。

  • We look forward to sharing more details about our vision and plans for Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. in the coming months. And with that, we're now happy to take your questions.

    我們期待在未來幾個月分享更多關於Beverage Co.與Global Coffee Co.的願景與計畫細節。接下來,我們很樂意回答各位的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

    (接線員指示) Dara Mohsenian,摩根士丹利。

  • Dara Mohsenian - Analyst

    Dara Mohsenian - Analyst

  • So another very strong top line result in US refreshment and beverages in Q3. Can you just give us a bit more insight onto the hood into what's driving that growth separating out the fully owned business from distributor brands. And just given the momentum, help us understand for 2027, how sustainable some of those drivers are I'd love it if you could touch on cost, in particular, given the momentum there also. And then if you'd be so generous, if I can just slip in one more clarification question.

    第三季美國即飲與飲料業務的營收再次表現非常強勁。能否請你們再多分享一些更深入的觀察,說明成長動能的來源,並將全資業務與經銷商品牌分開說明。另外,考量目前的動能,請協助我們理解到2027年,這些驅動因素的可持續性如何;也希望你們能談談成本面,尤其是那邊也有動能。最後如果你們願意的話,我想再補問一個釐清問題。

  • just the call down on heritage curing profit within the full year guidance, that's more related to what you expect in Q4 on the profitability side and the single-serve comments that you made in terms of the consumer shift to value, is some of that also the first half performance in Q2 where we saw a bit of weaker performance? I'm just trying to better understand what's changed on that heritage KDP coffee profitability side given so many moving cases?

    關於在全年指引中下調傳統業務咖啡獲利的部分,這比較是與你們對第四季獲利面的預期有關,還是與你們提到單杯(single-serve)品類中消費者轉向更高性價比的趨勢有關?其中是否也包含上半年、例如第二季我們看到表現稍弱的影響?我只是想更清楚了解,在變數這麼多的情況下,傳統KDP咖啡獲利能力這一塊到底有哪些改變?

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Dara. I will take the first question on US refresh and beverage growth, and I'll kick it over to Anthony to handle the US Coffee profitability question. Look, as you said, another strong quarter for US Refreshment Beverage.

    謝謝你,Dara。我先回答美國即飲與飲料成長的第一個問題,然後把美國咖啡獲利能力的問題交給Anthony來回答。如你所說,美國即飲飲料又是一個強勁的季度。

  • We're pleased, I said in the prepared remarks. It's our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit top line growth in the segment. And that's underpinned by almost 7.5% increase in volume/mix. And when you look at that volume mix performance, it was broad-based across the portfolio.

    我們很高興,我在事先準備的發言中也提到。這是該事業部連續第八個季度營收達到雙位數成長。其背後主要由銷量/組合(volume/mix)近7.5%的提升所支撐。而當你檢視這個銷量/組合表現時,可以看到整個產品組合呈現廣泛性的成長。

  • It starts certainly in CSDs, our largest category, healthy CSD trends, supported by what we're seeing as mid-single-digit category growth. And then within that, very solid brand performance.

    首先當然是碳酸飲料(CSDs),這是我們最大的品類;CSD趨勢健康,並受到我們觀察到的品類中個位數中段成長所支撐。在此之中,各品牌表現也相當穩健。

  • For us, our standouts were once again Dr. Pepper, led by Zero Sugar, as I said in earlier, Canada Dry, another strong quarter, BloomPop, all featured well in CSDs. Energy, we experienced outsized growth in energy, and it's driven by the momentum we're seeing on Bloom and on GHOST and good traction from the brand refresh that's flowing through the market on C4.

    就我們而言,表現突出的再次是Dr. Pepper,在Zero Sugar帶動下表現亮眼;如我先前所說,Canada Dry也再度交出強勁的一季;BloomPop在CSD品類中也表現出色。能量飲料方面,我們的能量飲料成長顯著,主要由Bloom與GHOST的動能所驅動,並且C4的品牌更新在市場端帶來良好拉動。

  • You double-clicked on GHOST, we continue to see significant runway for GHOST balance of the year and into '27, very pleased with that acquisition. Shifting to sports hydration, we had very strong quarter in sports hydration with Electrolit and improving still beverage performance led by our Waters portfolio.

    你特別追問了GHOST;我們仍看到GHOST在今年剩餘期間以及到2027年都有相當大的成長空間,對這項收購非常滿意。轉到運動補水品類,我們在運動補水方面有非常強勁的一季,Electrolit表現亮眼;而即飲飲品表現也持續改善,主要由我們的瓶裝水產品組合帶動。

  • Specifically to your point, Dara, on own brands and partner brands. I think, in aggregate, what I'd tell you is we're pleased that this growth profile features a balanced contribution from both components of the portfolio. And as we look to the balance of the year, Q4, we expect these same drivers to support continued momentum in US Refreshment Beverage.

    針對你提到的自有品牌與合作夥伴品牌,Dara。整體而言,我想說的是,我們很高興這樣的成長輪廓同時來自產品組合中兩個部分的均衡貢獻。展望今年剩餘期間、第四季,我們預期同樣的驅動因素將支撐美國即飲飲料持續的動能。

  • Look, I don't expect to sustain a double-digit growth rate over time, but I do see clear runway for this segment to continue to throw off a meaningful growth contribution going forward. And we expect this segment to deliver another strong year of performance in 2016 and sustain the healthy momentum through the separation. Anthony?

    我不預期長期能維持雙位數成長率,但我確實看到這個事業部在未來仍有清楚的成長跑道,能持續提供具意義的成長貢獻。我們也預期該事業部在2016年將再交出強勁的年度表現,並在分拆前維持健康動能。Anthony?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Thanks, Tim. As we discussed in our prepared remarks, the single-serve category trends were a bit challenged during the quarter, and we responded by focusing on several factors within our control. This included reinvesting some of the moderating coffee costs into trade spend and promotions. We did that to optimize the pod price points and competitive price gaps.

    好的,謝謝,Tim。如同我們在事先準備的發言中所討論,單杯品類在本季的趨勢有些具挑戰性,因此我們透過聚焦於幾項我們可控的因素來因應。其中包括將部分趨緩的咖啡成本重新投入到通路費用與促銷上。我們這麼做是為了最佳化膠囊(pod)的價格帶與競爭價差。

  • We also executed commercial programs to drive incremental demand at both ends of the value spectrum, including peak activity as well as new private label distribution wins. We're also stepping up our Keurig brewer precision marketing to support health of the broader ecosystem.

    我們也執行商業方案,在價值光譜兩端帶動增量需求,包括高峰期活動,以及新增自有品牌(private label)通路鋪貨的勝出。我們也正在加強Keurig咖啡機的精準行銷,以支持整體生態系的健康發展。

  • We believe these are the right steps to support the business. They also came with a near-term profit trade-off. All in, Q3 segment operating income grew at a double-digit rate, which included the benefit of onetime tariff refunds, and excluding the benefit of tariffs, improved meaningfully versus the first half.

    我們相信這些都是支持業務的正確步驟。但這些措施也伴隨短期獲利的取捨。整體而言,第三季事業部營業利益以雙位數成長,其中包含一次性關稅退稅的效益;若排除關稅效益,相較上半年也有顯著改善。

  • However, given the impact of the category trends and our investments, the pace of the underlying profit improvement was more gradual than our prior expectations. As we look ahead to Q4, we expect continued sequential improvement and year-over-year growth in underlying US Coffee profitability, although also at a more gradual pace than our prior expectations. All in, these factors mean we are now assuming a more modest US Coffee profit improvement in the second half.

    然而,考量到品類趨勢以及我們的投資所帶來的影響,基礎利潤改善的步伐較我們先前預期更為緩慢。展望第四季(Q4),我們預期美國咖啡(US Coffee)的基礎獲利能力將持續呈現逐季改善並實現年對年成長,但改善速度同樣會較我們先前預期更為溫和。總體而言,這些因素意味著我們目前假設下半年美國咖啡的利潤改善幅度將較為有限。

  • At the same time, this is being offset by higher expectations for JDE Peet's, where we benefited from favorable price/cost relationship, we're seeing improved market share trends, we're achieving cost and synergy savings. So we've increased our expectation for JDE Peet's accretion to 7 to 8 points versus 6 to 7. Meanwhile, because of the US Coffee performance, we're lowering our legacy KDP EPS guide from 4% to 6% to 3% to 5%.

    同時,這部分將由對 JDE Peet's 較高的預期所抵銷;我們受惠於有利的價格/成本關係,市場占有率趨勢正在改善,並且正在實現成本與協同效益節省。因此,我們將對 JDE Peet's 增益(accretion)的預期由 6 到 7 個百分點上調至 7 到 8 個百分點。另外,由於美國咖啡的表現,我們將 KDP 既有業務(legacy KDP)的每股盈餘(EPS)指引由 4% 到 6% 下調至 3% 到 5%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

    Chris Carey,Wells Fargo Securities。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a follow-up around US Coffee. Maybe just first, what did change within the quarter itself. And the reason I'm asking is because there's obviously comments about the category proved softer and yet volume/mix was decided to be better than expectations, albeit with lower pricing, but top line certainly seems better. I think the underlying margin, if you exclude tariff refund, was certainly a bit worse, right?

    我想就美國咖啡再追問一下。也許先問,這一季內部究竟發生了哪些變化?我之所以這麼問,是因為你們顯然提到品類表現更疲弱,但銷量/組合(volume/mix)卻被認為優於預期,儘管定價較低,但營收端看起來確實更好。我認為如果排除關稅退稅(tariff refund),基礎毛利率應該確實稍微更差,對吧?

  • But what, I guess, in the past month or two has evolved that has changed the picture here? Is it incremental private label driving lower margins? Is it you felt you needed to invest more into pricing, which drove lower margins? So maybe just what were the components that that shifted specifically between investment, volume and mix?

    但我想問的是,過去一兩個月究竟有哪些演變改變了目前的情勢?是額外的自有品牌(private label)推升,導致毛利率更低嗎?還是你們覺得需要在定價上投入更多,因而壓低了毛利率?所以能否說明一下,具體在投資、銷量與組合之間,哪些構成因素發生了變化?

  • And then Anthony, just on that Q4 comment, did you say that you expected operating profit to be up in coffee in Q4, which I think would imply pretty substantial sequential margin improvement. So maybe you could just double-click on that.

    另外 Anthony,關於你對 Q4 的評論,你是否表示你預期 Q4 咖啡的營業利益會上升?我認為這將意味著相當顯著的逐季毛利率改善。所以也許你可以再更深入說明一下。

  • And I think the bigger picture piece here, and sorry for the long question, is just the ability to have visibility on the US Coffee model and indeed the broader coffee business as you go into separation and deliver those targets that you laid out at Investor Day going over the next year and over the medium term. So it was quite a bit there, but thanks so much for your thoughts.

    我想更宏觀的一點(抱歉問題很長)是:在你們走向分拆(separation)之際,對美國咖啡模型、乃至更廣泛咖啡業務的能見度如何?以及你們是否有能力達成投資人日(Investor Day)所提出的未來一年與中期目標。問題很多,但非常感謝你們的看法。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Chris, let me take a shot at your question in terms of what changed. So as we headed into the second half, we did expect improving trends for US Coffee relative to the first half. And indeed, that played out in the third quarter. Both net sales and operating income grew year over year, including the benefit of the onetime tariff refund in the third quarter that we mentioned.

    好的,Chris,我先嘗試回答你關於「有哪些改變」的問題。當我們進入下半年時,確實預期美國咖啡相較上半年會出現改善趨勢。而且第三季確實如此。淨銷售與營業利益皆年對年成長,其中也包含我們提到的第三季一次性關稅退稅(onetime tariff refund)帶來的效益。

  • However, relative to our prior expectations, the pace of the underlying profit recovery was more gradual than we had first anticipated. So specifically to your question, what's changed? As the third quarter unfolded, we saw single-serve category trends that were softer than we expected. We think it's primarily related to the macro backdrop.

    然而,相較我們先前的預期,基礎利潤復甦的速度比我們最初預想的更為緩慢。因此針對你的問題:改變了什麼?隨著第三季推進,我們看到單杯(single-serve)品類趨勢比預期更疲弱。我們認為這主要與總體環境(macro backdrop)有關。

  • If you think about it, there have been multiple years of inflation-driven price increases on coffee, and we are seeing heightened value sensitivity in at-home coffee, particularly among the low and middle income consumers. So as a result, what you're seeing is lower cost formats of at-home coffee, think roast and ground, whole bean, instant, they are now outperforming single-serve. In addition, we did see private label penetration increasing both at total coffee category level and in the single-serve segment.

    如果你仔細想想,咖啡在過去多年經歷了多次由通膨推動的漲價,而我們看到居家咖啡(at-home coffee)的價值敏感度提高,尤其是在中低收入消費者之間。因此,你會看到成本較低的居家咖啡形式——例如研磨咖啡(roast and ground)、整豆(whole bean)、即溶(instant)——現在的表現優於單杯。此外,我們也看到自有品牌滲透率在整體咖啡品類以及單杯細分市場中都在提升。

  • Now while we believe these are largely temporary and cyclical dynamics given the pricing and overall economy, we recognize they could persist for some time depending on the broader economic backdrop. And as a result, you're hearing from us now we're incorporating a more cautious category assumption into the fourth quarter.

    雖然我們認為,鑑於定價與整體經濟狀況,這些多半是暫時且具循環性的動態,但我們也認知到,視更廣泛的經濟背景而定,它們可能會持續一段時間。因此,你現在聽到我們在第四季的假設中納入了更為審慎的品類假設。

  • At the same time, as Anthony responded to the prior question, we're definitely focused on executing against the areas in our control. And I think Anthony mentioned those, reinvesting some of the moderating coffee costs back in trade spend and promotions to optimize our price points, executing our commercial programs to drive incremental demand, stepping up our Keurig brewer precision marketing to drive accelerated brewer gains, which really are the health of the overall ecosystem, as you know.

    同時,正如 Anthony 對前一個問題的回應,我們確實專注於執行我們可控的領域。我想 Anthony 也提到了:將部分趨緩的咖啡成本重新投入到通路費用(trade spend)與促銷上,以優化我們的價格點;執行商業計畫以帶動額外需求;加強 Keurig 咖啡機(brewer)的精準行銷,以推動更快的咖啡機增長——如你所知,這其實關係到整個生態系的健康。

  • So these are the right steps to support the business, but they come with a near-term profit trade-off, and that is now captured in our updated expectations. And that double-click question that you had at the end, Chris, directed to Anthony, I'll just hit that right now.

    因此,這些都是支持業務的正確步驟,但短期內會在利潤上有所取捨,而這點已反映在我們更新後的預期中。至於你最後那個希望再深入(double-click)的問題、並且是問 Anthony 的,我現在也先回應一下。

  • As we look to Q4, we do expect continued sequential improvement off the front half in Q3 and year-over-year growth in underlying US Coffee profitability, although at a more gradual pace than our original expectations. And as Anthony said earlier, that is being offset by higher expectations for JDE Peet's. So we do expect a similar overall coffee contribution, and therefore, unchanged full year EPS outlook.

    展望 Q4,我們確實預期在 Q3 相較上半年基礎上,將持續逐季改善,且美國咖啡的基礎獲利能力將年對年成長,但改善速度會較我們原先預期更為溫和。而如同 Anthony 先前所說,這將由對 JDE Peet's 較高的預期所抵銷。因此,我們預期整體咖啡貢獻大致相近,進而使全年 EPS 展望維持不變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

    Lauren Lieberman,Barclays。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Great. I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about separation timing. I know you mentioned, Tim, early '27, but just based on market conditions, piece, I would love some more color on what that means. I appreciate the plan has been to be milestone based, but I just was curious about the added wrinkling commentary and market conditions.

    了解。我想請你們談談分拆時程(separation timing)。Tim,我知道你提到 2027 年初,但就市場狀況這一塊,我希望能更了解這代表什麼意思。我理解計畫一直是以里程碑為基礎,但我也好奇你們補充提到「一些變數」與市場狀況的評論。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So look, we're making good progress against our separation milestones. We closed the JDE Peet's acquisition. We're advancing the integration work, capturing meaningful synergies. We've seen that ramp Q2, Q3, it will ramp further in Q4.

    當然。你看,我們在分拆里程碑上進展良好。我們已完成 JDE Peet's 的收購。我們正在推進整合工作,並取得具意義的協同效益。我們看到第二季、第三季協同效益逐步提升,第四季還會進一步提升。

  • We've largely finalized and communicated the post-separation org structures. We've begun establishing the IT and financial reporting capabilities required for each of the future companies so they can operate independently.

    我們已大致完成並對外溝通分拆後的組織架構。我們也已開始建立未來各公司所需的 IT 與財務報導能力,使其能夠獨立運作。

  • We've expanded our Board of Directors in preparation for the need to have two independent Boards. We've established leadership teams, including today is his first day appointing Russ Torres as the future CEO of Global Coffee Co. So a lot of great progress that reinforces my comment that we're on track.

    我們已擴大董事會,以因應未來需要兩個獨立董事會的需求。我們也已建立領導團隊;包括今天是 Russ Torres 上任的第一天,他被任命為未來 Global Coffee Co. 的執行長(CEO)。因此有許多重大進展,這也強化了我先前所說我們正按計畫推進的評論。

  • Over the balance of the year, these are the remaining key separation priorities. First and foremost, for me, all year long, number one priority maintain momentum on the business and deliver on our 2026 plan. Next, we will further advance our integration work streams. As I mentioned earlier, our synergy capture will accelerate quarter by quarter. We're in the process now of finalizing the strategic frameworks for both companies.

    在今年剩餘期間,以下是尚待完成的關鍵分拆優先事項。首先也是最重要的,對我而言全年第一優先是維持業務動能,並交付我們的 2026 年計畫。接著,我們將進一步推進整合工作流。如我先前提到,我們的協同效益實現將逐季加速。我們目前也正在完成兩家公司各自的策略框架定案。

  • Obviously, things like corporate identities we will unveil closer to separation and importantly, the capital allocation policies for each of the future companies. We're going to further build out the Boards for both BevCo and Coffee Co, and you should expect to see further announcements in the months ahead. and, of course, strengthening our balance sheet, including, as Anthony said, continuing to evaluate opportunities to accelerate deleveraging.

    當然,像是企業識別(corporate identities)這類事項,我們會在更接近分拆時對外揭露;而且很重要的是,未來各公司的資本配置政策。我們也將進一步完善 BevCo 與 Coffee Co 的董事會,你們應可預期在未來幾個月看到更多公告。此外,當然也包括強化我們的資產負債表;正如 Anthony 所說,持續評估加速去槓桿(deleveraging)的機會。

  • So overall, we remain on track for our targeted early 2027 separation. We recognize that the external environment is volatile. And as we've always said, it is subject to market conditions and other customary considerations, and that has not changed.

    因此,整體而言,我們仍按計畫朝著目標在 2027 年初完成分拆。我們認知到外部環境波動。而且正如我們一貫所說,這仍取決於市場狀況及其他慣常考量,而這一點並未改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

    Peter Galbo,美國銀行。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask a clarification maybe and then a question. But Tim and Anthony, there was no update to the actual organic sales guidance that was included in the press release despite the movement on JDE. And I think you actually would have taken the organic sales up if that were not the case. So I just wanted to clarify that, that's actually true and maybe what that number might be?

    我想先請教一個釐清點,然後再問一個問題。不過 Tim 和 Anthony,儘管 JDE 有所變動,新聞稿中所包含的有機銷售指引本身並沒有更新。我認為如果不是這樣,你們其實會把有機銷售上調。所以我想確認一下,這確實是事實嗎?以及那個數字大概會是多少?

  • And maybe just on a broader term, Tim, you haven't really spoken much about the Chobani, not only just the equity sale, but but obviously the new agreement and what we might expect in from a potential product standpoint, again, as you try to continue to drive that USRP business. So I would love just the clarification point and then maybe a little bit more on Chobani products.

    另外更廣泛地說,Tim,你其實沒有談太多關於 Chobani 的部分,不僅是股權出售,當然也包括新的協議,以及在產品面我們可能可以期待什麼,尤其是在你們試圖持續推動 USRP 業務之際。所以我希望先釐清前面那點,然後也請多談一些 Chobani 的產品。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Right. I can unpack the sales guidance a little bit. At the aggregate level, it's unchanged, $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion, but we did lower a little bit the expectation for JDE Peet's, so we're now at $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion. That's down a little bit from our prior outlook, and that's because we're seeing some of the pass-through pricing dynamics of that business come through. At the same time, as we said, we're seeing improved profitability from JDE Peet's.

    好的。我可以稍微拆解一下銷售指引。在合併層面,指引維持不變,為 259 億至 264 億美元,但我們把對 JDE Peet's 的預期略為下調,目前為 83 億至 84 億美元。這比先前展望略低,原因是我們看到該業務的一些價格轉嫁(pass-through)動態正在顯現。同時,如我們所說,我們也看到 JDE Peet's 的獲利能力有所改善。

  • We also adjusted the tailwind on FX to about 0.5 point of tailwind. And what that does is when you do the math, it implies legacy KDP sales outlook of about mid- to high single digits. And in fact, when you look at the year to date for KDP legacy, we're up 8% sales. So it is an improvement from our prior expectations.

    我們也把匯率(FX)的順風調整為約 0.5 個百分點的順風。這樣一算,意味著 KDP 既有業務(legacy)的銷售展望約為中到高個位數成長。事實上,若看 KDP 既有業務的年初至今表現,我們的銷售成長 8%。因此,這相較於我們先前的預期是有所改善。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And Peter, I'll take the second part of the question on Chobani. Reminder, it was -- the deal had three elements. One was the monetization of our minority stake in Chobani. The second was the sale of our Allentown, Pennsylvania facility to Chobani.

    是的。Peter,我來回答關於 Chobani 的第二部分問題。提醒一下,這筆交易有三個要素。第一是將我們在 Chobani 的少數股權變現。第二是把我們位於賓夕法尼亞州 Allentown 的工廠出售給 Chobani。

  • And then there was a third element, which I think is really the core of your question, which was an expanded multiyear distribution partnership with Chobani. We have a tremendous relationship and partnership with Hamby and the Chobani team. And you've seen the way that manifests so far in the strong performance of lock-alone, ready-to-drink coffee.

    第三個要素,我想這才是你問題的核心,也就是與 Chobani 擴大多年期的配送合作夥伴關係。我們與 Hamdy 以及 Chobani 團隊有非常深厚的關係與合作。你也已經看到目前這種合作如何體現在「La Colombe」即飲咖啡(ready-to-drink coffee)的強勁表現上。

  • As a result of this deal now with Chobani, we have the opportunity to support further growth for both companies. And one of those opportunities is to work together on a future ready-to-drink innovation, including high protein shakes that Chobani has referenced in their recent announcement, and we're excited about bringing that to our portfolio likely sometime next year.

    透過這次與 Chobani 的交易,我們現在有機會支持兩家公司進一步成長。其中一個機會是共同開發未來的即飲創新產品,包括 Chobani 在近期公告中提到的高蛋白奶昔(high protein shakes),我們很期待把它納入我們的產品組合,時間點很可能在明年某個時候。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Grom, UBS.

    Peter Grom,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • So can I just ask specifically what US Coffee margin would have been without tariffs? And I just -- I asked this in the context if you were to back out the majority of that $99 million from the profit number, it would imply some modest improvement in operating margins versus the first half. And I think you mentioned to Dara that had improved meaningfully. So it just would be helpful to understand where underlying profit landed, and especially as we think about the path forward?

    我想具體請教,如果沒有關稅,美國咖啡(US Coffee)的毛利率會是多少?我之所以這樣問,是因為如果把那 9,900 萬美元中的大部分從利潤數字中扣除,似乎意味著相較上半年營業利潤率會有一些小幅改善。而我記得你對 Dara 提到過,情況已有明顯改善。所以若能理解基礎利潤落在哪裡會很有幫助,尤其是我們在思考未來的路徑時。

  • And then just as it relates to the earnings guidance, I know you're keeping the expectation for low double-digit EPS growth, but the tariff refund is a pretty decent tailwind. You also lowered your interest expense expectations. So is it really just weaker coffee performance that's more than offsetting that? Or are there other factors as well?

    另外關於獲利指引,我知道你們仍維持 EPS 低雙位數成長的預期,但關稅退稅是一個相當不錯的順風。你們也下調了利息費用的預期。所以真的是咖啡表現較弱,抵銷了這些利多嗎?還是也有其他因素?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Let me start with the second part. There are some other factors we are making decisions to reinvest in marketing and innovation. We've also seen a little bit of pressure on logistics, particularly in USRP, around energy cost and some resin costs coming through. So we do have a few pluses and minuses inside of the guidance.

    我先從第二部分開始。還有一些其他因素:我們正在做出決策,把資源再投入到行銷與創新。我們也看到物流方面有些壓力,特別是在 USRP,主要來自能源成本以及部分樹脂成本的上升。因此,在指引之中確實同時存在一些正負因素。

  • In terms of US Coffee performance, it would have been slightly down, excluding the tariff, but a meaningful improvement from the first half. We did talk about the $99 million in tariffs. The largest piece of that is in US Coffee. There is an additional benefit in US refreshment beverages and it's important, as I said, we're reinvesting some of those tariff refunds.

    就美國咖啡的表現而言,若排除關稅影響,會是小幅下滑,但相較上半年有顯著改善。我們確實談到那 9,900 萬美元的關稅。其中最大的一部分在美國咖啡。在美國即飲飲料(US refreshment beverages)也有額外的受益;而且如我所說,重要的是我們也把部分關稅退稅再投入。

  • Legacy KDP marketing in the quarter is up double digits, and we're also stepping up our innovation spending. Also, as Tim mentioned, there is some challenges in the coffee category, so it was helping to offset some of that. and some of the higher logistic costs that I mentioned. And the remainder helped to deliver some of the upside that you see in the quarter.

    本季 KDP 既有業務的行銷支出年增達雙位數,我們也在加大創新支出。另外,如 Tim 提到的,咖啡品類也面臨一些挑戰,因此這些退稅有助於抵銷其中一部分影響,以及我提到的部分較高物流成本。其餘部分則有助於帶來你在本季看到的一些上行表現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

    Kaumil Gajrawala,Jefferies。

  • Kaumil Gajrawala - Equity Analyst

    Kaumil Gajrawala - Equity Analyst

  • I want to ask a little bit more on the -- I know everybody is asking about coffee, but specifically, I think, Tim, you had mentioned that some of the slowdown in 4Q is macro, but also that maybe whole bean and a couple of other things are also involved. So this could be something that we're seeing more and more of, which is hold being fully automatic machines seem to be growing quite quickly.

    我想再多問一點——我知道大家都在問咖啡,但更具體地說,我記得 Tim 你提到第四季(4Q)放緩有一部分是總體環境(macro)因素,但也可能與全豆以及其他幾個面向有關。所以這可能是我們越來越常看到的情況:全豆搭配全自動咖啡機似乎成長得相當快。

  • So if you're thinking maybe more structurally about the future and the big benefit of single-serve being the convenience is something changing competitively where we also need to be aware of how things are going with the whole beans and automatics, which seems to be growing a little bit quicker than they were before?

    因此,如果你們從更結構性的角度思考未來:單杯(single-serve)最大的優勢是便利性;那麼競爭態勢是否正在改變,以致我們也需要留意全豆與全自動機種的發展?因為它們的成長速度似乎比以前更快一些。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, thanks. Look, as I said in the prepared remarks, the single-serve segment, which is obviously the vast majority of the business for legacy Keurig, those trends have been weaker than we expected. And we primarily attribute that to the current macro backdrop and the heightened value sensitivity you're seeing from consumers following multiple years of these inflation-driven price increases.

    是的,謝謝。如我在事先準備的發言中所說,單杯分部——也就是 Keurig 既有業務中占比絕大多數的部分——其趨勢比我們預期更疲弱。我們主要將其歸因於目前的總體環境背景,以及在經歷多年的通膨推動漲價後,消費者對價值(value)的敏感度提高。

  • I think some consumers have rebalanced their spending as they're navigating these higher costs across their entire budget. And some of that includes shifting some single-serve occasions into lower cost coffee formats as the ones I referenced and you referenced in your question, other segments that are arguably more value based.

    我認為部分消費者在面對整體預算中各項成本上升時,已重新平衡其支出。其中一部分就包括把某些單杯飲用情境轉向成本更低的咖啡形式,也就是我提到、你在問題中也提到的那些其他分部——可以說更偏向價值導向的選擇。

  • I think what's important for us and something I'll point out is the household penetration for Keurig remains healthy. And in fact, we expect it to continue to grow this year. But we are seeing pressure within existing households, households that use Keurig every week. They continue to consume K-Cups, but at a lower frequency. And so we believe that behavior is more consistent with a more temporary and cyclical response to the macro environment versus a fundamental change in consumer preferences.

    我認為對我們而言重要的一點——我也想指出——是 Keurig 的家庭滲透率仍然健康。事實上,我們預期今年仍會持續成長。但我們確實看到既有家庭用戶內部出現壓力:也就是那些每週都使用 Keurig 的家庭。他們仍然會消費 K-Cups,但頻率較低。因此,我們相信這種行為更符合對總體環境的較短期、週期性反應,而非消費者偏好出現根本性的改變。

  • And I think that view is supported by the longer-term track record you see of single-serve gaining share within at-home coffee. At the same time, we have to recognize these dynamics could persist for some time, especially if the overall economy remains pressured.

    而且我認為,從你所看到的長期趨勢來看,單杯式在居家咖啡中持續提升市占,這也支持了這個觀點。同時,我們必須認知到,這些動態可能會持續一段時間,尤其是在整體經濟仍然承壓的情況下。

  • And so we're taking the actions that we've outlined on this call to strengthen the value proposition and support both the category and our portfolio. And that's the activity I've referenced around trade spend and promotion optimization, and pod and brewer innovation, precision marketing and obviously, our commercial and RGM tools.

    因此,我們正在採取本次電話會議中已概述的行動,以強化價值主張,並同時支持品類與我們的產品組合。這包括我提到的通路費用投入與促銷最佳化、膠囊與咖啡機創新、精準行銷,當然還有我們的商業與RGM工具。

  • Over time, we believe these investments can support healthier and more consistent trends across both single serve and our total US Coffee business.

    隨著時間推進,我們相信這些投資能夠支持單杯式以及我們整體美國咖啡業務更健康且更一致的趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

    Michael Lavery,Piper Sandler。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Just wanted to see if you could give us a few thoughts on just some key considerations for 2027. Obviously, a lot of your attention and focus is on planning for the split. But anything maybe you could just help us understand in some of how you're planning from a business perspective and apart from the early bit of the year, it's two business plans.

    想請教你們能否分享一些對2027年的關鍵考量。顯然,你們有很大一部分注意力與重點放在分拆規劃上。但是否能協助我們從業務角度理解你們如何規劃;而且除了年初那段時間之外,這其實是兩個業務計畫。

  • I realize there's a lot there, but just maybe initial look on inflation expectations or your thoughts on the consumer some of the pricing investments and trade investments in coffee, should we expect some of that to be prolonged? Or is that really just a finish up this year?

    我知道這問題涵蓋很多,但或許先談談你們對通膨預期的初步看法,或你們對消費者的觀察;咖啡方面的一些定價投資與通路投資,我們是否應預期其中一部分會延續更久?還是那主要就是在今年結束前完成?

  • Just how do you keep pushing in energy past the 10% mark now of market share? Anything in terms of how you're looking ahead would be helpful.

    另外,你們如何在能量飲料市占已經突破10%之後,繼續推進成長?任何你們對未來展望的看法都會很有幫助。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, I can start. I would tell you that our 2027 planning process is still ongoing. As you can imagine, there are many moving pieces, even more so than usual this year as our planning encompasses both KDP as a whole, and for each of the two future companies, Beverage Co. and Coffee Co.

    好的,我可以先開始回答。我會告訴你,我們的2027年規劃流程仍在進行中。如你所想像,今年的變動因素比以往更多,因為我們的規劃同時涵蓋整體KDP,以及未來兩家公司的規劃:Beverage Co.與Coffee Co.。

  • And therefore, I'd say it's a bit early to provide specific commentary on next year. And our plan is to discuss 2027 in more detail as we move into early next year.

    因此,我會說現在要對明年提供具體評論還稍早。我們的計畫是在明年年初時,更詳細地討論2027年的情況。

  • Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Timothy Cofer - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And Michael, I'll take the last part of your question, where you double-clicked on energy. Look, you've heard me say this in prior earnings calls, we see significant growth potential, continued growth potential for the energy category starting there, supported by what we think are structural fundamentals like continued expansion in distribution points as the consumer appeal broadens household penetration upside is still there, further occasion gains, more female consumers entering the category.

    是的。Michael,我來回答你問題的最後一部分,也就是你深入追問的能量飲料。你在先前的財報電話會議中也聽我說過:我們看到能量飲料品類有顯著的成長潛力,而且仍有持續成長的潛力;首先,這來自我們認為的結構性基本面支撐,例如隨著消費者吸引力擴大,配銷據點持續擴張;家庭滲透率仍有上行空間;更多使用情境的增加;更多女性消費者進入該品類。

  • I think the channel diversity can continue to flesh out. Obviously, convenience is the core of the category and where it started. But there's still upside opportunity across other channels, including large format.

    我認為通路多元化也能持續更完整。顯然,便利商店是該品類的核心,也是起步的地方。但在其他通路仍有上行機會,包括大賣場等大型通路。

  • So at a category level, we're bullish. Within the category, we feel very good about our position. Our portfolio has been an outsized market share gainer over the last couple of years and really now has meaningful scale to build upon. We're over $1.5 billion in net sales. And when you look at what's driving that, it starts with our portfolio.

    因此,就品類層面而言,我們看多。在品類內部,我們對自身的定位感到非常有信心。過去幾年,我們的產品組合在市占成長上表現突出,而且現在已具備可持續擴張的有意義規模。我們的淨銷售額超過15億美元。而當你看推動因素時,首先就是我們的產品組合。

  • We've got authentic, distinctly positioned brands. You think about GHOST, you think about Bloom, C4, these are differentiated brands that really are complementary. The great tasting products, great innovation. I think our focus on Zero Sugar is the right place to play in the category. It's the largest, most attractive part of the category and really been an outsized contributor to category growth, and I expect that to continue.

    我們擁有真實、定位鮮明的品牌。想想GHOST、Bloom、C4,這些都是具差異化且彼此互補的品牌。產品口感佳、創新也很強。我認為我們聚焦在零糖(Zero Sugar)是切入該品類的正確方向。這是品類中最大、最具吸引力的部分,也一直是帶動品類成長的超額貢獻者,我預期這種趨勢會延續。

  • And then that's all underpinned by the capabilities that we have here at KDP and at BevCo around DSD, the capabilities to support that frontline execution and drive visibility and availability and display. So we're proud of the progress we've made.

    此外,這一切都由我們在KDP以及BevCo所具備的能力所支撐,包含DSD(直送配送)能力,能支持第一線執行並提升能見度、可得性與陳列。因此,我們對已取得的進展感到自豪。

  • And I remind you, just a couple of years ago, we were less than 1% market share, and we've now crossed the 10% mark, and that's more than 2.5 points of share growth year over year, if you look at the third quarter numbers. But just as importantly, I see continued meaningful runway going forward as we go into '27 and beyond and feel good about our ability to sustain healthy momentum in energy and across US Refreshment Beverage.

    我也提醒各位,就在幾年前,我們的市占還不到1%,而現在已跨越10%的門檻;若看第三季數據,年對年市占成長超過2.5個百分點。但同樣重要的是,我看到未來仍有顯著的成長跑道,進入2027年及之後也是如此;我們對於在能量飲料以及美國即飲飲料(US Refreshment Beverage)整體維持健康動能的能力感到有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Keurig Dr Pepper's Vice President of Investor Relations, Chethan Mallela.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交回給Keurig Dr Pepper投資人關係副總裁Chethan Mallela。

  • Chethan Mallela - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chethan Mallela - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, everyone, for the time and attention this morning, and the IR team is available if you have any follow-ups. Have a great day.

    很好。感謝各位今天早上的時間與關注;若有任何後續問題,投資人關係團隊也隨時可以協助。祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    本次電話會議現已結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以中斷連線。