Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Keurig Dr Pepper's earnings call for the fourth-quarter and full year of 2024. This conference call is being recorded, and there will be a question and answer session at the end of the call.

女士們、先生們，早安，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Keurig Dr Pepper 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。本次電話會議正在錄音，會議結束時將有問答環節。

I would now like to introduce Keurig Dr Pepper's Senior Vice President Finance, Jane Gelfand. Ms. Gelfin, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹 Keurig Dr Pepper 的財務高級副總裁 Jane Gelfand。格爾芬女士，請繼續。

Thank you and hello, everyone. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release detailing our fourth quarter and full year results, which we will discuss during this conference call and in the accompanying slide presentation that can be tracked in real time on the live webcast.

謝謝大家，大家好。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，詳細介紹了我們的第四季度和全年業績，我們將在本次電話會議和隨附的幻燈片演示中討論這些業績，可以在現場網絡直播中實時跟踪。

Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that our remarks will include forward-looking statements which reflect KDP's judgment, assumptions, and analysis only as of today. Our actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on a number of factors affecting KDP's business.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅反映 KDP 截至今天的判斷、假設和分析。由於影響 KDP 業務的多種因素，我們的實際結果可能與目前預期有重大差異。

Except as required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements discussed today. For more information, please refer to our earnings release and the risk factors discussed in our most recent Form-10K, which will be filed with the SEC later today.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新今天討論的任何前瞻性陳述的任何義務。欲了解更多信息，請參閱我們的收益報告和最新的 Form-10K 中討論的風險因素，該表格將於今天晚些時候提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

Consistent with previous quarters, we will be discussing our Q4 and full year performance on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, which reflects constant currency growth rates and excludes items affecting comparability. Definitions and reconciliations toward the most directly comparable GAAP metrics are included in our earnings material.

與前幾季一致，我們將根據非 GAAP 調整後的基礎討論第四季度和全年業績，這反映了固定貨幣成長率並且不包括影響可比性的項目。我們的收益資料中包含了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標相關的定義和調整。

Here with us today to discuss our results are Keurig Dr Pepper's Chief Executive Officer, Tim Cofer; and Chief Financial Officer and President International Sudhanshu Priyadarshi.

今天與我們一起討論業績的有 Keurig Dr Pepper 的執行長 Tim Cofer；以及財務長兼國際總裁 Sudhanshu Priyadarshi。

I'll now turn it over to Tim.

現在我將把它交給提姆。

Thanks, Jane, and good morning, everyone. 2024 was a pivotal year for KDP. In a demanding operating environment, we delivered attractive performance consistent with our long-term algorithm and full year guidance. We unveiled our refreshed strategy, which we activated as the year progressed to set the stage for KDP's next phase of growth. And we took bold action to extend our portfolio into attractive white spaces and strengthen our commercial capabilities.

謝謝，簡，大家早安。 2024年對KDP來說是關鍵的一年。在嚴苛的營運環境中，我們實現了與長期演算法和全年指導一致的出色業績。我們推出了新的策略，並在今年啟動該策略，為 KDP 的下一階段發展奠定基礎。我們採取大膽行動，將我們的產品組合擴展到有吸引力的空白領域並增強我們的商業能力。

In short, we struck a thoughtful balance between achieving our annual commitments and setting up KDP for consistent, sustainable success. 2025 is shaping up as another dynamic year for the CPG industry, and we will remain agile in our execution while targeting a similarly balanced set of outcomes, delivering on algorithm financial results, and simultaneously advancing strategic priorities to fortify our long-term growth model.

簡而言之，我們在履行年度承諾和建立 KDP 以實現持續、可持續的成功之間取得了深思熟慮的平衡。 2025 年將成為 CPG 產業充滿活力的另一年，我們將保持敏捷的執行力，同時瞄準同樣平衡的成果，實現演算法財務結果，並同時推進策略重點以鞏固我們的長期成長模式。

Let me start with a quick review of our key 2024 accomplishments which spanned each of our five strategic pillars. Beginning with consumer obsessed brand building, a successful innovation slate and engaging marketing campaigns drove attractive growth across many of our iconic brands.

首先，讓我簡單回顧一下我們 2024 年在五大戰略支柱方面所取得的主要成就。從以消費者為中心的品牌建立開始，成功的創新計劃和引人入勝的行銷活動推動了我們許多標誌性品牌實現了可觀的成長。

To provide just a few examples, Dr Pepper Creamy coconut was our largest limited time offering ever and generated significant buzz. We capitalized on the dirty soda cultural phenomenon powered by social media, which helped drive our eighth consecutive year of market share growth for Dr Pepper.

舉幾個例子，Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut 是我們有史以來最大的限時促銷產品，引起了巨大的轟動。我們利用社群媒體推動的「骯髒蘇打水」文化現象，推動 Dr Pepper 的市佔率連續第八年成長。

Canada Dry's first brand extension in year, Fruitsplash Cherry was the number one innovation in the CSD category. The Mott's fall marketing campaign highlighting its fresh, minimally processed apples fueled full year share gains in juice and strong back half momentum in sauces.

Fruitsplash Cherry 是加拿大乾果汁今年的首個品牌延伸，也是碳酸軟性飲料類別的頭號創新。莫特秋季行銷活動重點宣傳了其新鮮、加工程度較低的蘋果，推動了果汁全年份額的增長以及醬料下半年的強勁增長勢頭。

And in Coffee, our owned and licensed brands accounted for over 50% of the pod category innovation, spearheaded by our distinctive The Original Donut Shop Refreshers line, which was the number one new product in the category and doubled our initial plan.

在咖啡領域，我們的自有品牌和授權品牌佔據了膠囊類別創新的50%以上，其中最具代表性的是我們獨特的The Original Donut Shop Refreshers系列，它是該類別中排名第一的新產品，是我們最初計劃的兩倍。

We shaped our now and next portfolio, seamlessly transitioning Electrolit and La Colombe to our DSD network and onboarding several new coffee partners include leading brands such as Black Rifle in the US and Canadian icon Kicking Horse.

我們塑造了現在和未來的產品組合，將 Electrolit 和 La Colombe 無縫過渡到我們的 DSD 網絡，並加入了幾個新的咖啡合作夥伴，包括美國的 Black Rifle 和加拿大的 Kicking Horse 等領先品牌。

GHOST is yet another example of our portfolio strategy in action. Through this acquisition, which closed at year end, we added a successful emerging brand in the high-growth energy category that will benefit from inclusion in our advantaged distribution system. In total, our actions accelerated KDP's portfolio evolution to structurally faster-growing segments within the beverage industry.

GHOST 是我們投資組合策略付諸實施的又一例子。透過此次於年底完成的收購，我們在高成長能源類別中增加了一個成功的新興品牌，該品牌將受益於納入我們的優勢分銷體系。總體而言，我們的行動加速了 KDP 的投資組合向飲料行業結構性成長更快的細分市場的演變。

We amplified our route-to-market advantage and further extended the reach and power of the KDP DSD system across multiple geographies and sites. Most notable in 2024 was the territory acquisition to extend our manufacturing and distribution presence into Arizona. The transaction provided direct exposure to a growing market and added high quality scale to our supply chain and logistics networks.

我們擴大了我們的市場優勢，並進一步擴展了 KDP DSD 系統在多個地區和站點的覆蓋範圍和功能。2024 年最引人注目的是領土收購，將我們的製造和分銷業務擴展到亞利桑那州。此交易使我們直接接觸了不斷增長的市場，並為我們的供應鏈和物流網絡增加了高品質的規模。

We also executed well across our existing footprint, translating to healthy marketplace trends for our base business and strong performance for our partner brands. Our Fuel for Growth focus permeated the organization, driving productivity savings at the high end of our target and generating SG&A overhead leverage, particularly in the second half of the year.

我們在現有業務範圍內也表現良好，為我們的基礎業務帶來了健康的市場趨勢，為我們的合作品牌帶來了強勁的表現。我們對「成長動力」的關注滲透到了整個組織，推動生產力節約達到了我們目標的高端，並產生了銷售、一般及行政管理費用槓桿，尤其是在今年下半年。

And finally, we strengthened our free cash flow generation, which funded dynamic capital allocation activities. These included $1.1 million of share buybacks, our fourth consecutive annual dividend increase, and over $1 billion of strategic investments that will enhance our ability to deliver consistent, profitable growth in the future.

最後，我們加強了自由現金流的產生，為動態資本配置活動提供資金。其中包括 110 萬美元的股票回購、連續第四年增加年度股息以及超過 10 億美元的策略投資，這些投資將增強我們未來實現持續獲利成長的能力。

Our strategy and the five pillars underpinning it represent our North Star. In 2025, we will set a high bar for operational excellence, while further advancing each of these pillars as we become an ever stronger and more advantaged beverage company.

我們的策略及其支撐五大支柱代表著我們的北極星。2025 年，我們將為卓越營運設定高標準，同時進一步推進每個支柱，成為更強大、更具優勢的飲料公司。

To summarize our full year 2024 financial performance, we delivered results consistent with our long-term algorithm, with constant currency net sales growing approximately 4% and EPS growing 8%. Strong productivity and overhead savings drove P&L leverage and funded higher marketing investment.

總結我們 2024 年全年財務業績，我們交付的結果與我們的長期演算法一致，以固定匯率計算的淨銷售額增長約 4%，每股收益增長 8%。強勁的生產力和管理費用節省推動了損益槓桿並為更高的行銷投資提供了資金。

Free cash flow generation and conversion also improved considerably relative to prior year in keeping with our expectations. The strong performance during the year was led by our US refreshment beverages and International segments, which each demonstrated standout momentum and together represent over 70% of revenue.

自由現金流的產生和轉換也與前一年相比大幅改善，符合我們的預期。本年度的強勁表現得益於我們的美國飲料和國際業務部門，這兩個部門均表現出色，合計佔總收入的 70% 以上。

In US coffee, we made progress and strengthened our business resiliency as the industry heads into an inflation-driven pricing cycle.

在美國咖啡領域，隨著產業進入通膨驅動的定價週期，我們取得了進展並增強了業務彈性。

Moving to Q4. At the enterprise level, we finished the year with momentum. During the quarter, KDP delivered a meaningful top line acceleration and solid bottom line growth. Constant currency net sales increased more than 6% led by US refreshment beverages, which delivered an impressive double-digit sales gain. Notably, the net revenue trend across each of our three segments accelerated relative to the third quarter.

進入第四季。在企業層面，我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。在本季度，KDP 實現了有意義的營收加速和穩健的利潤成長。以固定匯率計算，淨銷售額成長超過 6%，其中美國飲料銷售額實現了令人印象深刻的兩位數成長。值得注意的是，我們三個部門的淨收入趨勢相對於第三季均有所加速。

Volume mix was the primary top line driver, with year-over-year growth in each business. Price was also a positive contributor, with gains in US refreshment beverages and International more than offsetting temporary price pressure in US coffee. Our top line growth, productivity savings and overhead discipline mitigated escalating inflation, enabling increased investment behind our brands and solid EPS growth.

銷量組合是主要的收入驅動因素，各項業務均實現年成長。價格也是一個積極的推動因素，美國飲料和國際價格的上漲足以抵消美國咖啡的暫時價格壓力。我們的營收成長、生產力節約和管理費用紀律緩解了不斷升級的通貨膨脹，從而增加了對我們品牌的投資並實現了穩健的每股收益成長。

Focusing on Q4 segment results. US refreshment beverages net sales grew a very strong 10%, led by a volume mix increase in the high single digits. Our teams executed exceptionally well to deliver this growth, which reflected base business momentum, traction from new partnerships and route-to-market additions.

重點關注第四季分部業績。美國飲料淨銷售額強勁成長 10%，其中銷售成長幅度達個位數。我們的團隊表現出色，實現了這一成長，這反映了基礎業務的發展勢頭、新合作夥伴關係的推動以及市場管道的增加。

Carbonated soft drink momentum was particularly strong in Q4. The category remains healthy, and we benefited from compelling innovation and brand activity, as well as offerings that appeal to value-conscious consumers.

碳酸軟性飲料的銷售動能在第四季尤為強勁。這個類別仍然保持健康，我們受益於引人注目的創新和品牌活動，以及吸引註重價值的消費者的產品。

Our CSD brands continued to win in the marketplace with market share gains in the quarter. Full Flavored Dr Pepper is now the number two CSD in the category, and the Dr Pepper brand is the undisputed leader in the vibrant CSDs flavor segment. Dr Pepper was also the CSD category's largest share gainer during Q4, reflecting its consumer appeal, unique positioning and the benefits of our commercial activities.

本季度，我們的碳酸軟性飲料品牌繼續在市場上獲勝，市佔率有所增加。全味 Dr Pepper 現在是同類碳酸軟性飲料中排名第二的品牌，而 Dr Pepper 品牌則是活力碳酸軟性飲料口味領域無可爭議的領導者。Dr Pepper 也是第四季碳酸飲料類別中份額增幅最大的品牌，這反映了其對消費者的吸引力、獨特的定位以及我們商業活動的好處。

For example, the seventh season of our Fansville college football marketing campaign was our most successful yet. We also saw continued traction from Dr Pepper's Zero Sugar portfolio, which will remain a strong growth vector going forward.

例如，我們的 Fansville 大學橄欖球行銷活動的第七季是迄今為止最成功的。我們也看到 Dr Pepper 的零糖產品組合持續受到青睞，這將繼續成為未來強勁的成長動力。

Canada Dry was another top CSD performer supported by our Fruitsplash Cherry innovation. And 7UP grew market share as consumers responded to our Shirley Temple Holiday LTO and refreshed brand design.

在我們的 Fruitsplash Cherry 創新支援下，加拿大乾型碳酸飲料 (Canada Dry) 是另一款表現優異的碳酸飲料。由於消費者對我們的 Shirley Temple Holiday LTO 和全新品牌設計的正面回應，七喜的市佔率也隨之擴大。

In 2025, we expect robust CSD growth to continue supported by engaging full funnel marketing activations and a promising CSD innovation lineup designed to extend our flavor leadership. This includes Dr Pepper Blackberry, which combines Dr Pepper's original 23 flavors with rich sweetness of blackberry. 7UP Tropical, which blends the crisp taste of 7UP with mango and peach flavors.

2025 年，我們預計，在全方位行銷活動和旨在擴大我們在口味方面的領導地位的有前景的 CSD 創新陣容的支持下，CSD 將繼續實現強勁增長。其中包括 Dr Pepper Blackberry，它結合了 Dr Pepper 原有的 23 種口味和黑莓的濃鬱甜味。7UP Tropical，融合了 7UP 的清爽口感和芒果和桃子的味道。

And exciting seasonal activations across other iconic brands, including an indulgent and nostalgic A&W Ice Cream Sundae beverage and new flavors from our Crush and Sunkist brands. Notably, Dr Pepper Blackberry marks the first time we are simultaneously introducing an innovation across bottles and cans, fountain and frozen to maximize availability across various formats that our consumers enjoy.

其他標誌性品牌也推出了令人興奮的季節性活動，包括令人放縱和懷舊的 A&W 冰淇淋聖代飲料以及來自 Crush 和 Sunkist 品牌的新口味。值得注意的是，Dr Pepper Blackberry 標誌著我們首次同時在瓶裝和罐裝、飲料噴泉和冷凍飲品方面推出創新，以最大限度地提高消費者喜愛的各種形式的供應。

Beyond CSDs, the next largest driver of our Q4 growth was Electrolit, which is enjoying accelerating trends after converting to the KDP DSD system. Electrolit is one of the fastest-growing brands in the sports hydration category, and we see significant runway for future expansion.

除 CSD 之外，我們在第四季度成長的第二大推動力是 Electrolit，其在轉換為 KDP DSD 系統後呈現加速趨勢。Electrolit 是運動補水產品類別中成長最快的品牌之一，我們認為其未來擴張的空間龐大。

In 2025, we will focus on strengthening Electrolit's distribution, including further transitioning the brand from Hispanic specialty to the mainstream sports hydration aisle. We will also leverage our DSD muscle to build Electrolit's presence in Multipack and Zero Sugar offerings, where the brand meaningfully under indexes versus the category leaders.

2025 年，我們將專注於加強 Electrolit 的分銷，包括進一步將該品牌從西班牙特色產品轉變為主流運動補水產品。我們還將利用我們的 DSD 實力來提升 Electrolit 在多件裝和零糖產品領域的地位，與同類產品領導者相比，該品牌的指數顯著下降。

Also during Q4, we made significant progress advancing our energy strategy. We drove strong growth for C4, gaining share within the attractive performance energy space and achieving an additional equity milestone in the process. We also began to transition Black Rifle Energy and Bloom to our DSD distribution network and closed on the GHOST acquisition.

此外，在第四季度，我們在推動能源策略方面取得了重大進展。我們推動了 C4 的強勁成長，在頗具吸引力的高性能能源領域獲得了份額，並在此過程中實現了額外的股權里程碑。我們也開始將 Black Rifle Energy 和 Bloom 轉移到我們的 DSD 分銷網絡，並完成了 GHOST 收購。

With a formidable distinctive and complementary energy portfolio now in place, we are enhancing our operating structure and adding dedicated resources to ensure KDP's success in this important high-growth category.

憑藉目前強大的獨特且互補的能源組合，我們正在加強我們的營運結構並增加專用資源，以確保 KDP 在這一重要的高成長類別中取得成功。

Just three years ago, our share in energy would have been close to zero. Today, it is over 6%. In 2025, we expect well over $1 billion in retail sales from our energy brands, and have set our sights on achieving a double-digit share position in the coming years.

就在三年前，我們在能源領域的市佔率還接近零。如今，這一比例已超過 6%。到 2025 年，我們預計我們的能源品牌的零售額將遠超 10 億美元，並著眼於未來幾年實現兩位數的份額。

Overall, we are pleased with the performance of our US refreshment beverages segment. Our exceptional Q4 results capped a strong 2024, and we have exciting plans in place to support sustained momentum in 2025.

總體而言，我們對美國飲料飲料部門的表現感到滿意。我們出色的第四季度業績為強勁的 2024 年畫上了圓滿句號，並且我們制定了激動人心的計劃來支持 2025 年的持續發展勢頭。

In US Coffee, Q4 net sales decreased 2% with a modest volume mix gain, including pod volume growth, more than offset by a temporary net price decline. We are encouraged by the improving state of the category and traction from our own portfolio efforts. Let me elaborate.

在美國咖啡領域，第四季淨銷售額下降 2%，由於咖啡包銷量成長等銷售組合小幅上漲，但淨價格暫時下跌抵消了部分上漲的影響。我們對該類別的不斷改善以及我們自身投資組合努力的推動感到鼓舞。讓我詳細說明一下。

First, year-over-year trends in the at-home coffee category improved on a value basis when compared to Q3, and the exit rate was healthy, with December representing the strongest month of the quarter. Second, in Q4, we continued to emphasize affordability, drive premiumization and advance at-home cold coffee offerings, all initiatives that we believe will have multiyear relevance in the category.

首先，與第三季相比，家庭咖啡類別的年比趨勢在價值基礎上有所改善，退出率也很健康，其中 12 月是本季表現最強勁的月份。其次，在第四季度，我們繼續強調可負擔性、推動高端化和推動家庭冷咖啡產品供應，我們相信所有這些舉措都將對該類別產生多年的影響。

Consumer acceptance of our price pack down counts remained strong. Our premium product tier continued to grow through our expanded commercial relationship with Lavazza, and we captured incremental consumers and occasions through cold offerings like K-Cup Refreshers, and our new K-Brew Shell Brewer.

消費者對我們的價格組合包的接受度仍然很高。透過擴大與 Lavazza 的商業關係，我們的高端產品層級持續成長，並且我們透過 K-Cup Refreshers 和新款 K-Brew Shell Brewer 等冷飲產品吸引了越來越多的消費者和場合。

Third, we made progress expanding our participation in coffee formats and channels where we have historically been underrepresented. Our ready-to-drink coffee partnership with La Colombe performed very well, with retail sales growth meaningfully accelerating in Q4. Momentum in away-from-home coffee also improved in the quarter, and we see significant opportunity into 2025 as in-office work ramps and we further push into channels like hospitality and food service.

第三，我們在擴大對咖啡形式和管道的參與方面取得了進展，而此前我們在這些形式和管道中代表性不足。我們與 La Colombe 的即飲咖啡合作表現非常出色，第四季零售額成長顯著加快。本季度，戶外咖啡的發展勢頭也有所改善，隨著辦公室工作的成長以及我們進一步進軍酒店和餐飲服務等管道，我們看到 2025 年將出現巨大的機會。

The combination of these factors put US Coffee on firmer footing exiting 2024, positioning it to be more resilient in 2025. We expect category conditions to be quite different this year given the inflationary pressure from coffee commodity costs. Accordingly, we are managing the business with two primary objectives.

這些因素的結合將使美國咖啡在 2024 年後站穩腳跟，並使其在 2025 年更具彈性。考慮到咖啡商品成本帶來的通膨壓力，我們預計今年的類別情況將有很大不同。因此，我們在管理業務時有兩個主要目標。

First, to preserve profit dollars and our ability to reinvest despite escalating green coffee costs. In response to this inflation, we announced pricing in Q4 that began to take effect in January, and saw many competitors take similar steps.

首先，儘管咖啡生豆成本不斷上漲，我們仍要保住利潤和再投資的能力。為了應對這種通貨膨脹，我們宣布了第四季度的定價，並從一月開始生效，並且看到許多競爭對手也採取了類似舉措。

However, the commodity price has continued to move even higher since then and we are evaluating all available options to offset the incremental pressure. These levers include driving greater productivity, optimizing mix and may also require further pricing actions with some elasticity offset.

然而，自那時起，大宗商品價格持續走高，我們正在評估所有可用的選擇來抵消增量壓力。這些槓桿包括提高生產力、最佳化組合，可能還需要採取進一步的定價行動並抵消一定的彈性。

Our second objective is to continue to steward, the single-serve category through marketing, innovation and activation in brewers and pods, while expanding our presence across total coffee occasions and solutions. We are planning to introduce compelling new products in various formats this year. And behind the scenes, we are advancing work on more disruptive launches like Keurig Ulta and K-Rounds [plastic]and aluminum-free pods for the years to come.

我們的第二個目標是透過咖啡機和咖啡包的營銷、創新和激活，繼續管理單份咖啡類別，同時擴大我們在整個咖啡場合和解決方案中的影響力。我們計劃今年以多種形式推出引人注目的新產品。而在幕後，我們正在推動更具顛覆性的產品發布工作，例如未來幾年將推出 Keurig Ulta 和 K-Rounds [塑膠]和無鋁咖啡包。

Turning now to International. We delivered another quarter of healthy top line growth with constant currency net sales increasing at a high single-digit rate. Momentum was broad-based across the portfolio. In International coffee, our top line was driven by market share gains for brewers and pods.

現在轉向國際。我們又實現了一個季度的健康營收成長，以固定匯率計算的淨銷售額以高個位數成長。整個投資組合呈現廣泛成長動能。在國際咖啡領域，我們的營業收入受到咖啡機和咖啡包市佔率成長的推動。

In cold beverages, our performance was led by Mexico LRBs, which grew nicely despite some signs of macroeconomic slowdown. These results were propelled by pay at the outline extensions, the expansion of power brands like Dr Pepper within Mexico and route-to-market investments across traditional and modern trade.

在冷飲領域，我們的表現以墨西哥LRB為主導，儘管出現了一些宏觀經濟放緩的跡象，但該業務仍保持了良好的成長。這些績效的推動因素包括：產品線延伸、Dr Pepper 等強勢品牌在墨西哥的擴張以及傳統和現代貿易領域的市場准入投資。

During the quarter, we signed a Canadian licensing deal for Nestea, the leading iced tea brand in the country, furthering our international partnership strategy. The partnership will pick up later in 2025. And through this iconic brand addition to the portfolio, we expect to establish a leading position in an important LRB category while benefiting from enhanced scale across our total Canadian operations. All in, our International segment continues to perform well. We are prioritizing this business for reinvestment, underpinning our confidence it can remain an outsized growth driver going forward.

本季度，我們與加拿大領先的冰茶品牌 Nestea 簽署了加拿大授權協議，進一步推進了我們的國際合作夥伴策略。雙方的合作關係將在 2025 年下半年進一步加強。透過將這個標誌性品牌加入我們的產品組合中，我們希望在重要的 LRB 類別中確立領先地位，同時受益於我們整個加拿大業務的規模擴大。總體而言，我們的國際部門持續表現良好。我們優先考慮對該業務進行再投資，堅信該業務在未來仍能成為巨大的成長動力。

In closing, I'm pleased with our performance during 2024. We delivered strong results in a challenging environment while simultaneously positioning the business for the long term. This outcome was a direct output of the talent, dedication and hard work of our 29,000 colleagues across KDP. On behalf of my executive leadership team, I'd like to thank them for their efforts and impact. Our challenger mindset is well suited for the current environment, and we expect to continue to see strong results in 2025 from empowering our teams to play offense and take calculated risks.

最後，我對我們 2024 年的表現感到滿意。我們在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了強勁的業績，同時為長期業務做好了準備。這項成果是 KDP 29,000 名同事的才華、奉獻和辛勤工作的直接成果。我謹代表我的執行領導團隊感謝他們的努力和影響力。我們的挑戰者思維非常適合當前的環境，我們希望在 2025 年繼續看到強勁的業績，透過授權我們的團隊發揮進攻能力並承擔經過深思熟慮的風險。

I'll now turn it over to Sudhanshu and will return with some closing thoughts about the year ahead.

現在我將把發言權交給 Sudhanshu，並對來年做一些總結性的想法。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with our results for the year with demonstrated excellent execution across the organization. We delivered 3.9% net sales growth, drove robust productivity to expand gross margin and leveraged SG&A through tight expense management.

謝謝，提姆，大家早安。我們對今年的業績感到滿意，整個組織都展現了出色的執行力。我們的淨銷售額成長了 3.9%，推動了強勁的生產效率以擴大毛利率，並透過嚴格的費用管理來提高銷售、一般和行政費用。

As a result, we grew operating income 9% and EPS 7.8%. We also meaningfully strengthened our cash flow generation. And as Tim outlined, made notable strategic progress to lay the groundwork for our success in 2025 and beyond.

結果，我們的營業收入成長了 9%，每股收益成長了 7.8%。我們也顯著加強了現金流的產生。正如蒂姆所概述的，取得了顯著的策略進展，為我們在 2025 年及以後的成功奠定了基礎。

Our fourth quarter closed the year on a strong note. Net sales grew 6.2% in constant currency, showcasing an acceleration relative to the first three quarters and led by US refreshment beverages and international. Enterprise volume mix grew 5.3%, reflecting healthy base business trends and an ongoing contribution from new partnerships. Net price realization was also a positive contributor, increasing 0.9%.

我們的第四季以強勁的業績結束了這一財年。以固定匯率計算，淨銷售額成長 6.2%，較前三個季度有所加速，主要得益於美國飲料和國際業務的成長。企業銷售組合成長 5.3%，反映出健康的基礎業務趨勢和新合作關係的持續貢獻。淨價格實現也是一個正面的推動因素，成長了0.9%。

Gross margin contracted 120 basis points versus the prior year. We generated significant productivity savings in the quarter, and also benefited from positive price realization. However, this was more than offset by building inflationary pressures and the impact of lapping a tough year-ago comparison.

毛利率較前一年下降了120個基點。我們在本季度實現了顯著的生產效率節約，同時也受益於積極的價格實現。然而，這被不斷增加的通膨壓力和與去年同期相比的艱難影響所抵消。

SG&A leverage 20 basis points despite an increase in marketing investment, reflecting an enhanced overhead efficiency mindset across the organization. All in, operating income grew 3.4%, and including a tailwind from lower shares outstanding, EPS advanced 5.5%.

儘管行銷投資增加，但銷售、一般及行政開支槓桿率仍上升了 20 個基點，反映出整個組織的管理費用效率觀念有所增強。總體而言，營業收入成長了 3.4%，加上流通股減少帶來的推動，每股盈餘成長了 5.5%。

Moving to the segments. US refreshment beverages net sales grew an impressive 10.3%, accelerating from a mid-single-digit growth rate in the third quarter. Volume mix was the primary driver increasing 7.5%, led by base business momentum, particularly in CSDs. We further benefited from an incremental contribution from Electrolit, where our partnership is progressing well and growth is accelerating.

轉向各個部分。美國飲料淨銷售額年增 10.3%，成長率高於第三季的中等個位數成長率。交易量組合是推動成長 7.5% 的主要因素，這主要得益於基礎業務的發展勢頭，尤其是中央證券存管業務。我們也受惠於 Electrolit 的增量貢獻，我們與 Electrolit 的合作進展順利，成長也正在加速。

The quarter also included the modest benefit of an extra shipping day due to calendar (inaudible). Pricing grew 2.8% in the quarter, primarily reflecting favorable price realization in our CSD portfolio. Segment operating income increased 8.6%, driven by the very strong net sales growth and robust productivity savings. We delivered this result while reinvesting, even as we absorbed a net headwind from lapping a larger C4 performance incentive in the year ago period.

本季也因日曆原因增加了一天的運輸時間（聽不清楚）。本季定價上漲了 2.8%，主要反映了我們的 CSD 投資組合中有利的價格實現。由於強勁的淨銷售額成長和強勁的生產效率節約，分部營業收入成長了 8.6%。儘管我們在去年同期承受了因獲得更大的 C4 績效激勵而產生的淨阻力，但我們仍然在再投資的同時取得了這一業績。

In US Coffee, net sales declined 2.4%. Volume mix grew 0.7% in the quarter, driven by a 1.1% increase in port shipments. Our strategic initiatives showed traction with the underlying themes of affordability, growth and premium to remain in place on a multiyear basis.

美國咖啡淨銷售額下降2.4%。本季度，受港口貨運量成長 1.1% 的推動，貨運量成長 0.7%。我們的策略性舉措顯示出以可負擔性、成長和優質為基本主題的吸引力，並將在多年基礎上保持不變。

Brewer shipments declined 4% in the quarter, below point-of-sale consumption due to seasonality. On a full year basis, which is (inaudible) seasonality-related noise, brewer shipments increased 7.3%. Segment pricing declined 3.1% in the fourth quarter. We had expected some lingering pressure this quarter, but nonetheless encouraged by the improving trend. We anticipate category pricing will strengthen further in 2025 based on actions taken in response to green coffee inflation, including our January price increase. Fourth quarter segment operating income declined 5.7% with productivity savings more than offset by the net price decline and green coffee inflation.

由於季節性原因，本季啤酒出貨量下降了 4%，低於銷售點消費量。從全年來看，這是（聽不清楚）季節性相關的噪音，啤酒出貨量增加了 7.3%。第四季分部定價下降了 3.1%。我們原本預期本季仍會面臨一些持續的壓力，但好轉的趨勢仍令我們感到鼓舞。根據為因應綠色咖啡通膨而採取的措施（包括 1 月的價格上漲），我們預計類別定價將在 2025 年進一步走強。第四季分部營業收入下降 5.7%，生產力節約的影響被淨價格下降和生咖啡通膨所抵銷。

Moving to International. Net sales grew 8.5% in constant currency. This strong result was led by volume mix, which increased 6.5%, reflecting positive momentum across regions. Net price realization was also a growth driver, contributing 2%. Inclusive of unfavorable effects, reported net sales increased 0.8%.

走向國際。以固定匯率計算，淨銷售額成長了 8.5%。這一強勁業績主要得益於銷售組合，其成長了 6.5%，反映出各地區呈現積極勢頭。淨價格實現也是成長的動力之一，貢獻了2%。計入不利影響，報告淨銷售額成長了 0.8%。

Segment operating income declined 8.6%. This reflected two primary factors. First, a strong reinvestment in the quarter, including DSD expansion activities in Mexico and higher marketing across the segment. Second, escalating green coffee costs in the fourth quarter, with related pricing actions in Canada due to take effect in the middle of the first quarter. Importantly, we see these as temporary dynamics and expect our International segment to remain a strong top and bottom line growth driver in 2025 as a whole.

分部營業收入下降8.6%。這反映了兩個主要因素。首先，本季強勁的再投資，包括在墨西哥的 DSD 擴張活動和整個部門的更高行銷力度。第二，第四季咖啡生豆成本不斷上漲，加拿大相關定價措施將於第一季中期生效。重要的是，我們認為這些只是暫時的動態，並預計我們的國際部門在 2025 年全年仍將是強勁的營收和利潤成長動力。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. We generated a strong free cash flow of almost $700 million during the fourth quarter. This brought full year free cash flow to $1.7 billion, a significant step-up versus prior year, and we expect further progress in 2025. Cash generation is the hallmark of KDP, and we remain on track to restore our business to healthy structural conversion levels over the next couple of years.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。我們在第四季產生了近 7 億美元的強勁自由現金流。這使得全年自由現金流達到 17 億美元，與前一年相比有顯著成長，我們預計 2025 年將取得進一步進展。現金創造是 KDP 的標誌，我們將繼續在未來幾年內將業務恢復到健康的結構轉換水平。

As Tim discussed, during 2024, we deployed the cash flow we generated in a variety of value-enhancing ways, including over $1 billion of strategic investments to acquire a 60% ownership in GHOST and expand our DSD footprint into Arizona, $1.1 billion worth of share buybacks and a 7% increase in our quarterly dividend, marking our fourth consecutive year with a dividend raise.

正如蒂姆所討論的，在 2024 年，我們以多種增值方式部署了我們產生的現金流，包括超過 10 億美元的戰略投資以收購 GHOST 60% 的所有權並將我們的 DSD 業務擴展到亞利桑那州，價值 11 億美元的股票回購和 7% 的季度增長，這是我們連續第四年增加股息。

We ended 2024 with management leverage of 3.3 times, which reflected the GHOST transaction. This was above our long-term target of less than 2.5 times, and more of our focus since 2025 will be on deleveraging. However, we feel comfortable that our accelerating free cash flow profile can support a disciplined, multipronged capital allocation strategy that also includes investments and steady dividend growth.

截至 2024 年，我們的管理槓桿率為 3.3 倍，這反映了 GHOST 交易。這高於我們低於 2.5 倍的長期目標，並且自 2025 年起我們將更加關注去槓桿。然而，我們相信，我們不斷加速的自由現金流狀況可以支持包括投資和穩定的股息成長在內的嚴謹、多管齊下的資本配置策略。

Moving now to our 2025 guidance. On a constant currency basis, we expect mid-single-digit net sales growth and high single-digit earnings per share growth in line with our long-term algorithm. Based on current rates, we anticipate that FX will represent an additional 1 to 2 percentage point headwind.

現在轉向我們的 2025 年指導。以固定匯率計算，我們預期淨銷售額將實現中等個位數成長，每股盈餘將實現高個位數成長，這與我們的長期演算法一致。根據當前匯率，我們預期外匯將帶來額外的 1 至 2 個百分點的阻力。

Our outlook assumes good momentum in our US refreshment beverages and international segments and an incremental contribution from the GHOST acquisition. The plan also recognize that US Coffee is likely to remain more subdued in a dynamic commodity environment even with higher pricing. We expect strong productivity and overhead discipline to generate Fuel for Growth and to support healthy operating income gains in the coming year.

我們的前景表明，美國飲料和國際市場將保持良好發展勢頭，而 GHOST 收購將帶來增量貢獻。該計劃還認識到，即使價格上漲，美國咖啡在動態的商品環境中仍可能繼續保持低迷。我們預計，強大的生產力和管理費用紀律將為成長提供動力，並支持來年健康的營業收入成長。

Below the line, we forecast interest expense in a $680 million to $700 million range, and effective tax rate of approximately 22% to 23% and approximately 1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares outstanding. There are a couple of factors worth considering when it comes to the quarterly phasing in 2025.

低於這一水平，我們預測利息支出將在 6.8 億美元至 7 億美元之間，有效稅率約為 22% 至 23%，攤薄加權平均流通股數約為 13.7 億股。當談到 2025 年的季度分階段實施時，有幾個因素值得考慮。

For one, Q1 will reflect the impact of a later Easter and one fewer shipping day compared with prior year. Plus the balance between inflation, pricing and productivity generation is slated to improve over the course of the year. As a result, we anticipate a stronger top line and bottom line momentum in Q2 through Q4, particularly as the contribution from GHOST builds following the transition to our distribution network.

首先，與去年相比，第一季將反映出復活節延後和運輸日減少一天的影響。此外，通貨膨脹、定價和生產力之間的平衡預計將在今年改善。因此，我們預計第二季至第四季的營收和淨利潤成長動能將更加強勁，尤其是隨著 GHOST 向我們的分銷網絡轉型後貢獻的增加。

In closing, we are pleased with our 2024 performance and a good finish in the fourth quarter. We drove healthy marketplace trends across our base business, secured additional scale in attractive white spaces, strengthened our advantaged route-to-market system and embedded a greater efficiency focus throughout the organization. And we did this all while delivering on our plans.

最後，我們對 2024 年的表現和第四季的良好結束感到滿意。我們在整個基礎業務中推動了健康的市場趨勢，在具有吸引力的白色領域獲得了額外的規模，加強了我們有利的市場通路體系，並在整個組織中嵌入了更大的效率重點。我們在履行計劃的同時做到了這一切。

We are confident 2025 will be another year of progress for KDP. We expect to showcase our operating agility in a dynamic environment, our relative insulation for (inaudible) volatility, and most importantly, our building momentum in the industry.

我們相信，2025 年將是 KDP 又一個進步的一年。我們希望展現我們在動態環境中的營運彈性、我們對（聽不清楚）波動的相對隔離性，以及最重要的是，我們在產業中的建設勢頭。

With that, I will turn the call back to Tim for closing remarks.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給提姆，請他作最後發言。

Thanks, Sudhanshu. We achieved a great deal in 2024 and we're committed to delivering another strong performance in 2025. As we look to the year ahead, we are cognizant of the demanding operating backdrop, and will act with agility to navigate uneven consumer sentiment, higher inflation and a shifting regulatory landscape.

謝謝，Sudhanshu。我們在 2024 年取得了巨大成就，我們致力於在 2025 年再次取得強勁表現。展望新的一年，我們意識到嚴峻的經營環境，並將靈活應對不均衡的消費者情緒、更高的通膨和不斷變化的監管環境。

We have momentum across much of the portfolio with an exciting slate of marketing, innovation and sales activation plans. We are moving with speed to unlock significant productivity savings and where appropriate implement pricing in response to inflation and to ensure continued investment in the business.

我們的大部分投資組合都呈現出良好的發展勢頭，並製定了令人興奮的營銷、創新和銷售激活計劃。我們正在迅速採取行動，大幅提高生產力，並在適當的情況下實施定價以應對通貨膨脹，並確保對業務的持續投資。

And we are hitting the ground running with GHOST, which we will activate in a big way as we transition distribution over the coming months. These factors support our confidence in another on-algorithm year, during which we will continue to distinguish ourselves as an advantaged player in the exciting beverage industry for the long term.

而且，我們正在全力投入 GHOST 計劃，我們將在未來幾個月內隨著分銷管道的轉變而大規模啟動該計劃。這些因素增強了我們對又一個演算法年充滿信心，在這其中，我們將繼續長期成為令人興奮的飲料行業的優勢參與者。

Thank you for your time, and we're now happy to take your questions.

感謝您的時間，我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

We will now begin the question and answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指令）

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

So I wanted to just, maybe talk through the building blocks for 2025. Beginning with the commentary on Q1, you've got the leap year, and you've also got the Easter dynamic, so revenue and profit, well, and you also have green coffee, so revenue and profit do build. But I think there's also a dynamic where we're looking at year-to-date consumption trends which are very strong, particularly in your US refreshment business. So are you seeing anything different than what we're seeing? Or are we really just talking about some calendar timing dynamics and green coffee inflation as we build through the year?

因此，我只是想討論一下 2025 年的基礎建設。從第一季的評論開始，你有閏年，也有復活節的動態，所以收入和利潤，嗯，你還有綠咖啡，所以收入和利潤確實會增加。但我認為，從今年迄今的消費趨勢來看，也存在著一種動態，這種趨勢非常強勁，尤其是在美國的飲料業務中。那麼您看到的和我們所看到的有什麼不同嗎？或者我們實際上只是在談論全年日曆時間動態和綠色咖啡通膨？

And just (inaudible), when you think about the overall delivery from a top line standpoint from volume mix versus price, and from a bottom line standpoint, do you have any thoughts on kind of where you would be thinking you're trending within the range given we're so early in the year? So just any thoughts on that underlying what can we see in the business entering the year and just some thoughts on relative ranges and drivers for top line and bottom line. Thanks so much.

而且（聽不清楚），當您從銷售組合與價格的頂線角度考慮整體交付情況時，從底線角度考慮，考慮到今年還處於初期，您是否認為您的趨勢在範圍內？因此，對於我們在進入今年的業務中可以看到什麼，以及對於營收和利潤的相對範圍和驅動因素的一些想法。非常感謝。

Thanks, Chris. So first of all, we are pleased with our on-algo performance in '24, and you saw the exit run rate in Q4, and we feel we are well set up to deliver our algo MSD top line and HST EPS yet again in 2025. Now let me walk you through the sales and EPS driver as we see them today.

謝謝，克里斯。首先，我們對 24 年的演算法表現感到滿意，並且您看到了第四季度的退出運行率，我們認為我們已經準備好在 2025 年再次實現我們的演算法 MSD 頂線和 HST EPS。現在讓我向您介紹我們今天看到的銷售和每股收益驅動因素。

This year will be a year with a lot of macro things moving. But what we see today, there are some differences in thing on sales and how we think of EPS. When it comes to the revenue growth, it's fair to say that we see a path towards the upper end of our MSD net sales growth range. And the key drivers are continued momentum in [US RB] and International, this is underpinned by strong innovation, commercial plan and some modest net pricing.

今年將是許多宏觀事物發展的一年。但今天我們看到，銷售情況和我們對每股盈餘的看法有些差異。談到收入成長，可以公平地說，我們看到了一條通往 MSD 淨銷售額成長範圍限制的道路。關鍵驅動因素是美國 RB 和國際市場的持續成長，這得益於強勁的創新、商業計劃和適度的淨定價。

As I said before, a subdued trend in US Coffee in a dynamic commodity environment, even with higher pricing, and we think this is an appropriate planning stance. And the incremental contribution from GHOST, which we begin to consolidate in Q1 at a smaller contribution, but it will ramp as distribution build primarily starting in Q2.

正如我之前所說，在動態的商品環境中，美國咖啡的趨勢仍然低迷，即使價格較高，我們認為這是適當的規劃立場。我們在第一季開始以較小的貢獻整合來自 GHOST 的增量貢獻，但從第二季開始，隨著分銷的建立，它將逐漸增加。

Now let me come back to EPS. So we expect net sales growth and moderating, a modest operating margin leverage that will translate into HST constant currency EPS growth. We should have a good profit flow-through from volume mix momentum both in [US RB] and international. Now we also feel that GHOST will be modestly accretive this year, a bit better than we originally affected due to earlier distribution. But on the flip side, the inflation outlook is certainly more challenging than we thought even three months ago based on the direction of green coffee.

現在讓我回到 EPS。因此，我們預期淨銷售額將成長並放緩，適度的營業利潤率槓桿將轉化為 HST 恆定貨幣每股收益成長。我們應該從（美國 RB）和國際的銷售組合勢頭中獲得良好的利潤流。現在我們也認為，GHOST 今年將略有增值，比我們最初因早期分發而受到影響的情況要好一些。但另一方面，通膨前景肯定比我們三個月前根據綠咖啡的走勢所想像的更具挑戰性。

We will look to offset this through pricing, strong productivity, mix and overhead discipline. So as we think right now, all in, MSD and HST percentage are the right range to target in constant currency. I will also remind you, in you reported terms, we expect an additional 1 to 2 point FX headwind. But as I said, this is a challenging environment, and this outlook requires discipline and agility in the face of record coffee inflation and macro uncertainty.

我們將透過定價、強大的生產力、產品組合和管理費用紀律來抵消這一影響。因此，正如我們現在所想，總的來說，MSD 和 HST 百分比是按固定匯率計算的正確目標範圍。我還要提醒您，按照您的報告，我們預計外匯逆風將額外增加 1 到 2 點。但正如我所說，這是一個充滿挑戰的環境，面對創紀錄的咖啡通膨和宏觀不確定性，這種前景需要紀律和敏捷。

When it comes to quarter 1 and phasing, Q1, we do have a less shipping day, a fewer shipping day, and also later Easter and only a partial benefit from coffee pricing and a smaller GHOST contribution as distribution transition occurs. So as I said during the call, we expect growth to accelerate over the balance of the year as the calendar normalizes, gross distribution ramps and pricing builds.

當涉及第一季度和分階段時，第一季度，我們的運輸日確實減少了，運輸日也減少了，而且復活節也推遲了，而且隨著分銷轉型的發生，咖啡定價只給我們帶來了部分好處，而 GHOST 貢獻也減少了。因此，正如我在電話會議中所說的那樣，隨著日曆的正常化、總分銷的增加和價格的構建，我們預計今年剩餘時間的增長將會加速。

EPS to Q1, EPS growth will be limited by net sales phasing, a lag of pricing to inflation, a tough lap from on equity in prior year period and a full quarter of financing costs for GHOST, with limited contribution from (inaudible) distribution. We also expect EPS to accelerate over the balance of the year, reflecting a better expected balance between pricing inflation, GHOST distribution ramp and the phasing of productivity and savings realization.

第一季的每股盈餘，每股盈餘成長將受到以下因素的限制：淨銷售額階段、定價對通膨的滯後、去年同期股權的艱難表現以及 GHOST 整個季度的融資成本，以及（聽不清楚）分銷的有限貢獻。我們也預計，每股盈餘將在今年餘下時間加速成長，這反映了價格通膨、GHOST 分配成長以及生產力和儲蓄實現的分階段之間預期會實現更好的平衡。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hope you are doing well. So Tim, I was hoping to get some perspective on coffee, just as you look back to 2024. It's been a category that's been more difficult to call. I think the improvement has taken a bit longer than many anticipated. So I guess as you look back, do you feel like you have a better understanding on maybe why category growth remained more subdued?

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。祝你一切順利。所以提姆，我希望對咖啡有一些看法，就像你回顧 2024 年一樣。這是一個比較難以稱呼的類別。我認為這種改善所花的時間比許多人預期的要長一些。所以我想，當您回顧過去時，您是否覺得自己對為什麼類別成長仍然較為低迷有了更好的理解？

And then just as you think about a stronger exit rate, what do you think drove that? And I know you're expecting more subdued growth in '25. But I guess my question is, do you feel like you have better visibility on category growth where we sit today versus maybe where we've been over the last year? Thanks.

那麼，當您想到更高的退出率時，您認為是什麼推動了這一點？我知道您預計25年的成長會更加緩慢。但我想我的問題是，您是否覺得與去年相比，我們對目前所處的類別成長有了更好的了解？謝謝。

Absolutely, Peter. So I think stepping back first, coffee remains an attractive category long term. We remain committed and bullish on long-term coffee prospects. I remind you and others that it is a ubiquitous category. It maintains wide and passionate consumer appeal.

當然，彼得。因此我認為退一步來說，咖啡從長遠來看仍然是一個有吸引力的類別。我們依然致力於並看好咖啡的長期前景。我提醒你和其他人，這是一個無處不在的類別。它保持著廣泛而熱情的消費者吸引力。

It's the most consumed beverage outside of water. I think we believe even in an inflationary environment, there's ongoing opportunity for premiumization. We think there's an opportunity for us to have an even wider diversity of formats and channel penetration to distinct different, to attract and capitalize on different need states.

它是除水之外消費最多的飲料。我相信，即使在通膨環境下，高端化仍然有持續的機會。我們認為，我們有機會透過更多樣化的形式和管道滲透來區分不同，以吸引和利用不同的需求狀態。

And I think in this inflationary environment that we transitioned into, there's an opportunity for us to further showcase the value of at-home coffee relative to away from home. And that includes, obviously, our single-serve leadership position, but also our ready-to-drink offering with the new partnership with La Colombe.

我認為，在我們所處的通膨環境中，我們有機會進一步展示在家喝咖啡相對於在外喝咖啡的價值。顯然，這包括我們的單杯飲料領導地位，也包括我們與 La Colombe 建立新合作夥伴關係後提供的即飲產品。

So to your question, back in '24, it was a year of relatively benign inflation and it didn't start to ramp until the very end of the year. So our focus in much of the category was on volume stabilization. And I'll tell you, overall, we were pleased and we felt like we were successful. Volume mix in the year grew about 1% in '24. You saw pod volume turn positive in Q4.

所以對於你的問題，回顧 24 年，那是通貨膨脹相對溫和的一年，直到年底才開始上升。因此，我們在這一類別中的重點是銷量穩定。我可以告訴你們，總的來說，我們很高興並且覺得我們成功了。24 年全年銷量成長約 1%。您會看到，第四季的 Pod 銷售轉為正值。

Obviously, now as we go into '25, we're in a completely different environment with record green coffee costs. We are shifting our focus. We must protect our ability to invest for the long term. We understand that with the pricing moves that we and others have made, there will be some volume elasticity trade-off. We're willing to accept that because, overall, we think we need to play the long game here.

顯然，現在我們進入25年，我們處在一個完全不同的環境，綠色咖啡成本創下了歷史新高。我們正在轉移焦點。我們必須保護我們的長期投資能力。我們明白，我們和其他公司採取的定價措施會在銷售彈性方面產生一定的影響。我們願意接受這一點，因為總的來說，我們認為我們需要打一場持久戰。

And so as I said in my prepared remarks, as we go into '25, it's really two primary objectives, one, preserving those profit dollars in light of that inflation through a combination of the pricing action we've taken, mix, productivity, et cetera, and continuing to invest in the future, which we do think remains bright for coffee across our innovation and activation plans, pods, brewers, and really stepping back and making sure we're expanding in the full coffee portfolio beyond single-serve position where we've got strong leadership.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，當我們進入25年時，我們實際上有兩個主要目標：第一，透過我們採取的定價行動、產品組合、生產力等相結合的方式，在通貨膨脹的情況下保留這些利潤，並繼續對未來進行投資，我們確實認為，透過我們的創新和激活計劃、咖啡包、咖啡機等，咖啡組合的前景仍然真正的前景，確保我們在整個光明杯中擁有光明組合，我們仍然擁有強大咖啡的前景

Having said all that, I'll remind you what both Sudhanshu and I said in the prepared remarks, we're planning for US Coffee segment performance to remain subdued. And even with what, we feel confident in our overall KDP enterprise outlook of MSD on the top and EPS HST.

說了這麼多，我要提醒大家，Sudhanshu 和我在準備好的發言中都說過，我們計劃讓美國咖啡部門的表現保持低迷。無論如何，我們對 MSD 處於領先地位以及 EPS HST 的整體 KDP 企業前景充滿信心。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Thanks very much. Good morning everybody. So I was hoping you could, maybe building on what you outlined in your prepared remarks around KDP's ambitions and energy, maybe just a little bit more color on how you're viewing that market in 2025.

非常感謝。大家早安。因此我希望您能夠基於您在準備好的發言中概述的 KDP 的抱負和活力，稍微詳細地闡述一下您對 2025 年該市場的看法。

Obviously, for you guys, GHOST is a big part of your plan for the year, plus activity around C4 and Black Rifle and Bloom. And we've seen a lot of activity articulated from other players as well, whether it's Red Bull or Monster, or the news last week regarding Celsius and (inaudible).

顯然，對你們來說，GHOST 是今年計劃的重要組成部分，另外還有圍繞 C4、Black Rifle 和 Bloom 的活動。我們也看到其他參與者的積極行動，無論是 Red Bull 還是 Monster，或者上週有關 Celsius 和（聽不清楚）。

So maybe just a little bit of perspective on how you're seeing consumer demand taking shape within the category, and then how your portfolio is positioned to take advantage of white space opportunities within that fairly busy and changing competitive landscape. Thank you.

因此，也許您可以稍微談談您如何看待這一類別中的消費者需求，以及您的產品組合如何定位，以便在相當繁忙和不斷變化的競爭環境中利用空白機會。謝謝。

Yes, Steve, we're bullish on energy. No doubt about it. We all know it's one of the fastest-growing categories with LRB, close to a double-digit mark over the last three years. I think there remain lots of opportunity to continue to offer differentiated brands that hit unique demand spaces and unique targets. We also like the profitability of the energy category because it really helps to fund high-quality, long-term brand building.

是的，史蒂夫，我們對能源很看好。毫無疑問。我們都知道它是 LRB 成長最快的類別之一，過去三年的增幅接近兩位數。我認為仍有許多機會可以繼續提供滿足獨特需求空間和獨特目標的差異化品牌。我們也喜歡能源類別的獲利能力，因為它確實有助於資助高品質、長期的品牌建立。

The need is there. Ever present, ever more so in terms of a universal need for alertness. And I think you're seeing a growing category sophistication in energy. Meaning that, yes, there's continued upside in household penetration, but channel development, there's still upside. Segmentation, price (inaudible), architecture and, again, unique positioning.

有這個需求。始終存在，就普遍需要警覺性而言，尤其如此。我認為，你會看到能源類別的複雜程度日益提高。是的，這意味著家庭普及率還有持續上升的空間，但通路開發也仍有上升空間。細分、價格（聽不清楚）、架構，以及獨特的定位。

So one of the things you mentioned in the question is we've seen some category consolidation, including some news last week, including our own exciting acquisition of GHOST that we closed on December 31 of last year.

所以您在問題中提到的一件事是，我們看到了一些類別的整合，包括上週的一些新聞，包括我們自己令人興奮的對 GHOST 的收購，我們在去年 12 月 31 日完成了收購。

I think that speaks to the attractiveness of energy. And quite honestly, these last few moves make us feel optimistic that it will help fuel healthy, high-quality competition that should benefit the consumer and really expand the overall pie within energy.

我認為這體現了能源的吸引力。坦白說，最後的這幾項舉措讓我們感到樂觀，它將有助於促進健康、高品質的競爭，這將使消費者受益，並真正擴大能源領域的整體份額。

We feel good that we've constructed now a portfolio that has a right to win in energy. I'll remind you what I said in the prepared remarks, three years ago, KDP's share in energy was basically zero. Sitting here today, it's over 6%, well over $1 billion in retail sales. And as I've said, we've got a double-digit share goal in the years ahead.

我們很高興現在已經建立了一個有權在能源領域獲勝的投資組合。我提醒大家我在準備好的發言中說過，三年前，庫德民主黨在能源領域的份額基本上為零。今天，我們的零售額成長了 6% 以上，遠遠超過了 10 億美元。正如我所說，我們在未來幾年的份額目標是達到兩位數。

When you look at this portfolio we've assembled, it's a suite of complementary brands that can really target distinct consumer cohorts and demand spaces. C4, the large anchor brand today in the performance space, in fitness, strong offerings in high stimulation segment with the ultimate line. Our Black Rifle partnership, mainstream, veteran founded, unapologetically American. The new Bloom distribution deal that we have, a female-forward brand with a very strong following. Tremendous momentum just getting started.

當你查看我們組成的這個產品組合時，你會發現它是一套互補的品牌，可以真正針對不同的消費者群體和需求空間。C4 是當今健身和運動領域的重要支柱品牌，在高刺激領域擁有極致的產品線和強大的產品陣容。我們的黑步槍合作夥伴是主流的、由退伍軍人創立的、毫無歉意的美國品牌。我們與 Bloom 簽訂了新分銷協議，這是一個擁有大量追隨者的女性品牌。巨大的勢頭才剛開始。

And then GHOST. A lifestyle brand, a younger GenZennial target, really exciting flavor range, a leader in sugar SKUs. We, as we get deeper and deeper with GHOST, we feel great about this deal. I think it's an attractive asset. It's a fast-growing brand. There's opportunity for KDP to add the value that you've seen us add in other partnership deals.

然後是 GHOST。一個生活方式品牌，一個更年輕的 GenZennial 目標，擁有真正令人興奮的口味系列，是醣類 SKU 的領導者。隨著我們與 GHOST 的合作越來越深入，我們對這筆交易感到非常滿意。我認為這是一項很有吸引力的資產。這是一個快速成長的品牌。KDP 有機會增加我們在其他合作交易中所增加的價值。

Quite (inaudible), just yesterday, I was with the founders here in our Texas headquarter office, Dan and Ryan, we've got big plans. And we're taking the distribution here in just a couple of weeks here in early March. As Sudhanshu said, you'll see us ramp from there. But I think that gives us an opportunity to significantly impact the brand's trajectory. And we're bullish on what we can do under KDP's ownership for GHOST and for our entire portfolio of energy.

相當（聽不清楚），就在昨天，我和創始人丹和瑞安在我們德克薩斯總部辦公室在一起，我們有一個宏偉的計劃。我們將在三月初的幾週內完成分發。正如 Sudhanshu 所說，你會看到我們從那裡開始進步。但我認為這給了我們一個顯著影響品牌發展軌蹟的機會。我們對在 KDP 的領導下 GHOST 和我們的整個能源組合能夠取得怎樣的成績充滿信心。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

Thank you. Good morning. So my question is, first, what is embedded in for the pod volume recovery? I mean obviously, the price mix impact is probably going to hopefully inflect in the next few quarters with pricing already announced and potentially, as you said, additional pricing that you're studying. And how has elasticities been one of your competitors have talked about that is coming in a little bit better than expected.

謝謝。早安.所以我的問題是，首先，pod 卷恢復中嵌入了什麼？我的意思是，顯然，價格組合的影響可能會在接下來的幾個季度內發生變化，價格已經公佈，正如你所說，你正在研究額外的定價。您的一位競爭對手談到了彈性如何，彈性如何比預期的要好一些。

And a follow-up on energy. To get to the double-digit share, basically, you're thinking, are you thinking, two parts of the same question. One, organic or M&A or combo growth, as you want to come from 6% to double digit? And have you been able to secure some of the distribution gains as you called out with GHOST coming March? As well as the, at C4, what are you looking in terms of velocity as you expect to reach that double-digit aspiration? Thank you.

以及對能源的後續關注。為了達到兩位數的份額，基本上，你在思考，你在思考同一個問題的兩個部分。第一，有機成長、併購成長還是組合成長，你想從 6% 上升到兩位數嗎？正如您在 3 月的 GHOST 中所呼籲的那樣，您是否能夠確保獲得一些分銷收益？另外，在 C4，您在速度方面期待什麼才能達到兩位數的目標？謝謝。

Thanks, Andrea. Starting with your coffee question. As single-serve coffee category leader, it's critical that we protect our ability to continue to fund high-quality reinvestment, including even, especially in these times of inflation. And so we implemented a pod price increase in January. We announced that in the fourth quarter. Many of our competitors, but not yet all have taken similar action. And any time we take pricing, we plan for a level of elasticity. Obviously, volume is going to be weaker.

謝謝，安德里亞。從您的咖啡問題開始。作為單杯咖啡類別的領導者，我們必須保護我們繼續資助高品質再投資的能力，尤其是在通貨膨脹時期。因此我們在一月份實施了 pod 價格上調。我們在第四季度宣布了這一消息。我們的許多競爭對手都採取了類似行動，但並非所有競爭對手都採取了類似行動。無論何時定價，我們都會規劃一定程度的彈性。顯然，交易量將會變弱。

It's a little early to get a clean read on elasticity at this point in the year. And part of that is because the industry and competitive pricing is layering in right now at different rates at different times and different channels. I would tell you on the whole, the consumer response to date has not been, especially surprising, largely in line with our expectations.

今年這個時候對彈性進行清晰的解讀還為時過早。部分原因是目前行業和競爭性定價在不同時間和不同管道以不同的價格呈現。我想說，整體而言，迄今為止消費者的反應並不特別令人驚訝，基本上符合我們的預期。

Seed price has moved higher, and it's been up and down as you, we track it daily, obviously. And so we're looking at any and all options to offset any sort of incremental pressure beyond that first move. That includes productivity, incremental productivity mix, expense discipline. It may require another pricing move. We'll assess that each and every day.

種子價格一直在走高，而且一直在上下波動，顯然我們每天都在跟踪它。因此，我們正在研究一切選擇，以抵消除第一步之外的任何增量壓力。其中包括生產力、增量生產力組合、費用紀律。它可能需要採取另一種定價措施。我們每天都會進行評估。

And as we make our decisions, we'll continue to monitor consumer response and really focus on that first priority that I mentioned, which is preserving profit as the number one priority and our ability to continue to invest over time. So I think that largely handles the coffee question.

當我們做出決定時，我們將繼續監控消費者的反應，並真正專注於我提到的首要任務，即將利潤作為第一要務，並保持我們繼續投資的能力。所以我認為這基本上解決了咖啡問題。

And then the other was back on GHOST. As I mentioned earlier in Steve's question, we feel great about the GHOST acquisition as I've gotten deeper into it with the team, I think it's a very attractive asset and there's significant opportunity for KDP to add value. Distribution is obviously cheap among them, but it goes beyond. I think there's supply chain opportunities for us, R&D insights, et cetera.

然後另一個又回到了 GHOST。正如我之前在史蒂夫的問題中提到的，我們對 GHOST 的收購感到非常高興，隨著我與團隊的深入了解，我認為這是一項非常有吸引力的資產，並且 KDP 有很大機會增加其價值。其中分銷顯然是最便宜的，但它卻超越了這一點。我認為我們有供應鏈機會、研發見解等等。

The distribution handover is going to take place here into KDP DSD starting in March. And so we have the opportunity, similar to what we've done with other partner brands you've seen in the past to build ACV, build average items carried, build the quality of the display, secondary location coolers, et cetera. And obviously, we're working hand-in-hand with our customers. And I think our customers are excited about what we will bring to the party on GHOST.

分配交接將於三月在 KDP DSD 進行。因此，我們有機會，類似於我們與其他合作品牌在過去所做的那樣，打造 ACV、打造平均攜帶物品、打造展示品質、二級位置冷卻器等等。顯然，我們正在與客戶攜手合作。我認為我們的客戶對於我們在 GHOST 上推出的產品感到非常興奮。

And consistent with what I said to Steve's question, we're bringing this full portfolio of distinctive and complementary brands that I think can really reinforce one another, help drive our energy sales and also have a benefit back to total KDP DSD in terms of drop size, store frequency and DSD economics.

與我對史蒂夫的問題的回答一致，我們帶來了這一系列獨特且互補的品牌，我認為這些品牌可以真正相互加強，有助於推動我們的能源銷售，並且在液滴大小、存儲頻率和 DSD 經濟性方面也為 KDP DSD 帶來總收益。

Kaumil Garjawala, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Kaumil Garjawala。

Hey guys, good morning. Over the years, no one has been better than you guys at finding partnerships and alignments. I guess conversations about energy with the new at least big, hot things to be around modern soda. There's been some transactions in the place. Coke's launching one of their own. Curious how you plan to play there? And what sort of structures you'd consider? Thanks.

大家早安。多年來，沒有人比你們更擅長尋找合作夥伴關係和聯盟。我認為有關能源的討論至少會與現代蘇打水有關的新的、大的、熱門的事物有關。該地方已經發生一些交易。可口可樂即將推出一款自己的產品。好奇您計劃如何在那裡玩嗎？您會考慮什麼類型的結構？謝謝。

Absolutely. I'll step all the way back to our vision. Our vision is to provide consumers with the beverage for every need, anytime, anywhere. And I think, as you referenced in your question, KDP has done a very good job of shaping our portfolio as a key pillar of our strategy. And we've made great progress in the last few years.

絕對地。我將回顧我們的願景。我們的願景是隨時隨地為消費者提供滿足各種需求的飲料。我認為，正如您在問題中提到的，KDP 在塑造我們的投資組合作為我們策略的重要支柱方面做得非常出色。過去幾年我們取得了巨大進步。

And certainly, energy is the one we're talking about a lot today. But as you say, the addition of Electrolit in sports hydration, La Colombe in ready-to-drink clock and many other partners across still, Vita Coco, Evian in water, et cetera. You will see us continue to do that. You'll see us continue to transition our portfolio areas where the puck is going and where consumers have strong interest. And that includes appealing to health-conscious consumers.

當然，我們今天討論最多的就是能源問題。但正如你所說，在運動補水領域添加了 Electrolit，在即飲飲料領域添加了 La Colombe，並在水中添加了許多其他合作夥伴，如 Vita Coco、Evian 等等。你會看到我們繼續這樣做。你會看到我們繼續轉變我們的投資組合領域，轉向冰球運動的方向和消費者的濃厚興趣。這包括吸引註重健康的消費者。

We've seen that in our own portfolio. 60% of our portfolio today is what we call positive hydration, no or low calorie, the addition of nutrients, serving the fruit, no sugar added, et cetera. Where we see those durable high potential white spaces, including the area that you mentioned in your question, you can be sure we're evaluating any and all entry avenues to participate in that growth pocket. That might be organic. That might be through partnerships. But as you've seen us do, we will state to that and we will continue to future-proof our portfolio to have the most growth-accretive position LRBs.

我們已經在自己的​​投資組合中看到了這一點。我們目前的產品組合中有 60% 是我們所說的正向補水、無熱量或低熱量、添加營養素、配水果、不添加糖等等。當我們看到那些具有持久高潛力的白色空間時，包括您在問題中提到的領域，您可以肯定我們正在評估參與該成長領域的所有進入途徑。這可能是有機的。這可能是透過合作實現的。但正如您所看到的那樣，我們將表明這一點，並將繼續確保我們的投資組合具有最具增長增值的 LRB 頭寸。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the puts and takes for gross margins in 2025. Obviously, we talked a lot about green coffee inflation. Can you talk a little bit about your hedging, how much visibility you have there?

大家早安。我想問一下 2025 年毛利率的利弊。顯然，我們討論了很多有關綠咖啡通膨的問題。可以稍微談談你的對沖嗎？

And then also in terms of other inflation, particularly in aluminum for the refreshment beverage business. And then overall, it sounded like you have a lot of productivity, should we think the margin expansion is more below the gross margin line? Or do you still expect a potential for gross margin to be consistent or maybe expanding in 2025? Thank you.

然後還有其他通貨膨脹方面，特別是用於飲料行業的鋁的通貨膨脹。然後總的來說，聽起來你們的生產力很高，我們是否應該認為利潤率擴張更多地低於毛利率線？或者您仍然預計 2025 年毛利率將保持不變甚至可能擴大？謝謝。

So this is Sudhanshu. So first, our '25 outlook implies modest operating margin expansion. And let me give you a few key drivers. First is operating leverage from healthy volume mix growth. Positive pricing and active mix management across each of our segments.

這就是 Sudhanshu。首先，我們的 25 年展望意味著適度的營業利潤率擴張。讓我給你幾個關鍵驅動因素。首先是健康的銷售組合成長帶來的營業槓桿。我們每個部門都實行積極的定價和主動的組合管理。

And yes, we do expect another strong year of continuous productivity at the top end of our range, 3% to 4%. We had a very good, good year in 2024, and an ongoing overhead discipline. So as of now, we feel very good about our plans. And obviously, we will remain agile in managing across various P&L levers to deliver on our commitment, while continuing to invest in the long run.

是的，我們確實預期生產力將再創強勁成長年，並保持在我們預期的最高水準 3% 至 4%。2024 年是我們非常好的一年，並且持續保持良好的管理紀律。所以到目前為止，我們對我們的計劃感到非常滿意。顯然，我們將繼續靈活地管理各種損益槓桿，以履行我們的承諾，同時繼續進行長期投資。

Your question about aluminum. So as you know, our general approach, we had six to nine months. Aluminum is an exception since we do not purchase it directly. Instead, like much of the industry, we source (inaudible) from US-based suppliers. We lock in pricing through supply contracts and often take longer coverage that, for direct commodity purchases.

您關於鋁的問題。如你所知，我們的一般方法是六到九個月。鋁是一個例外，因為我們不直接購買它。相反，與許多行業一樣，我們從美國供應商處採購（聽不清楚）。我們透過供應合約鎖定價格，並且通常比直接購買商品的期限更長。

So, but hedging only delays, it doesn't permanently offset where we are. All of these things, we have factored in our outlook. And we feel good about MST and HSD EPS.

所以，但對沖只能延遲，並不能永久地抵銷我們所處的位置。所有這些因素，我們都已考慮到我們的前景。我們對 MST 和 HSD EPS 感覺良好。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jane Gelfand for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Jane Gelfand 做最後演講。

Thank you, Betsy, and thank you, everyone, for participating. We appreciate your attention and your support, and Investor Relations will be available all day to answer any follow-ups. Thanks again, and have a great day.

謝謝你，貝琪，也謝謝大家的參與。我們感謝您的關注和支持，投資者關係部將全天為您解答任何後續問題。再次感謝，祝您有愉快的一天。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。