Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Keurig Dr Pepper's earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year of 2018. This conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Keurig Dr Pepper Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Ms. Maria Sceppaguercio. Please go ahead.

早上好，女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Keurig Dr Pepper 2018 年第四季度和全年財報電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中。（操作員說明） 現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，Keurig Dr Pepper 首席企業事務官 Maria Sceppaguercio 女士。請繼續。

Thank you. And hello, everyone, thanks for joining us. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2018. If you need a copy, you can get one on our website at keurigdrpepper.com in the investor section.

謝謝。大家好，感謝您加入我們。今天上午早些時候，我們發布了 2018 年第四季度和全年的新聞稿。如果您需要一份副本，可以在我們網站 keurigdrpepper.com 的投資者部分獲取一份。

As you will recall from last quarter, the discussion of our Q3 performance was largely on an adjusted pro forma basis due to the merger. And our discussion here today will be consistent with that. The company believes that the adjusted pro forma basis provides investors with additional insight into our business and operating performance trends. While these pro forma adjustments and the exclusion of items affecting comparability are not in accordance with GAAP, we believe that the adjusted pro forma basis provide a meaningful comparison and an appropriate basis for discussion of our performance. Details of the excluded items are included in the reconciliation table included in our press release and are discussed in detail in our 10-K, which will be filed later today.

您還記得上個季度的情況，對我們第三季度業績的討論主要是在因合併而調整後的預估基礎上進行的。我們今天在這裡的討論將與此一致。該公司相信，調整後的備考基礎可以讓投資者更深入地了解我們的業務和經營業績趨勢。雖然這些預估調整和排除影響可比性的項目不符合公認會計準則，但我們相信調整後的預估基礎為我們的業績討論提供了有意義的比較和適當的基礎。排除項目的詳細信息包含在我們新聞稿中的調節表中，並在今天晚些時候提交的 10-K 中詳細討論。

So with quite an exciting 2018 now in the record books, our attention turns to driving another year of strong performance for KDP in 2019. Here with me today to discuss our results for 2018 and our outlook for 2019 are KDP Chairman and CEO, Bob Gamgort; and our CFO, Ozan Dokmecioglu.

因此，隨著 2018 年的記錄令人興奮，我們的注意力轉向推動 KDP 在 2019 年再創強勁業績。今天與我一起討論我們 2018 年業績和 2019 年展望的是 KDP 董事長兼首席執行官 Bob Gamgort；以及我們的首席財務官 Ozan Dokmecioglu。

Also with us today is our recently hired Vice President of IR, Tyson Seely, who some of you already know. Tyson will lead the IR team here at KDP reporting to me. For those of you who don't already know Tyson, I'm certain you will enjoy working with him. And finally, our discussion this morning may include forward-looking statements which are subject to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based upon subsequent events. A detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties is contained in the company's filings with the SEC.

今天與我們在一起的還有我們最近聘請的 IR 副總裁 Tyson Seely，你們中的一些人已經認識他了。泰森將領導 KDP 的 IR 團隊，向我匯報工作。對於那些還不了解泰森的人，我確信您會喜歡與他一起工作。最後，我們今天上午的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些陳述的義務。該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了這些風險和不確定性。

And with that, I'll hand it over to Bob.

有了這個，我會把它交給鮑勃。

Thanks, Maria, and thanks to everyone for dialing in. We are very pleased with the strong results delivered in Q4 and for the full year of 2018. And we're especially proud of the progress we have made in creating our new beverage company. We expect to create sustained shareholder and stakeholder value over the long term.

謝謝瑪麗亞，也感謝大家撥通電話。我們對第四季度和 2018 年全年的強勁業績感到非常滿意。我們對創建新飲料公司所取得的進展感到特別自豪。我們期望長期創造持續的股東和利益相關者價值。

We have largely completed our integration, bringing together 25,000 employees under a unified culture and harmonized processes. And we have established a singular focus to capture growth across the majority of beverage occasions in North America.

我們已基本完成整合，將 25,000 名員工聚集在統一的文化和協調的流程下。我們已經建立了一個單一的重點，以捕捉北美大多數飲料場合的增長。

Most importantly, our in-market business momentum never lost a beat while we were in progress of integration, a real testament to the quality of our team members and the strength of our integration program. We drove growth across the majority of our portfolio on 2018, are on track to deliver our synergy goals and are in-position to deliver the overall value creation targets we communicated at the time of the merger, even in an environment that has become much more challenging over the past year.

最重要的是，在整合過程中，我們的市場業務勢頭從未減弱，這真正證明了我們團隊成員的素質和整合計劃的實力。2018 年，我們推動了大部分投資組合的增長，有望實現我們的協同目標，並且有能力實現我們在合併時傳達的總體價值創造目標，即使是在一個變得更加複雜的環境中。過去的一年充滿挑戰。

Let's talk specifics for 2018 before we speak to our expectations for the coming year. I'll begin with in-market results based on IRI. Retail market performance was strong across most of the business. Our CSD portfolio registered market share growth in both units and dollars, with strong dollar performances for both Dr Pepper and Canada Dry. And to a lesser extent, A&W, Squirt and Schweppes.

在談論我們對來年的期望之前，讓我們先談談 2018 年的具體情況。我將從基於 IRI 的市場內結果開始。大多數業務的零售市場表現強勁。我們的 CSD 投資組合在數量和美元方面均實現了市場份額的增長，Dr Pepper 和 Canada Dry 的美元表現強勁。較小程度上還有 A&W、Squirt 和 Schweppes。

Outside of CSDs, we gained share in multiple cold beverage segments such as enhanced flavored still water, premium unflavored still water, ready-to-drink coffee, apple juice, vegetable juice and mixers.

除碳酸飲料外，我們還在多個冷飲細分市場獲得了份額，例如增強風味靜水、優質無味靜水、即飲咖啡、蘋果汁、蔬菜汁和攪拌機。

Our coffee portfolio also delivered strong results in 2018, driven by unit growth approximating 10% for pods manufactured by KDP, outpacing category growth of approximately 8%. In dollar terms, KDP manufactured pods grew over 4% in a category that advanced approximately 3%.

我們的咖啡產品組合在 2018 年也取得了強勁的業績，這得益於 KDP 生產的咖啡豆銷量增長了約 10%，超過了約 8% 的品類增長。以美元計算，KDP 製造的煙彈增長了 4% 以上，而該類別的增長約為 3%。

As a result, the dollar market share of pods manufactured by KDP advanced to 82%. Turning now to total company financials on an adjusted pro forma basis.

結果，KDP 生產的煙彈的美元市場份額上升至 82%。現在轉向調整後的公司總體財務狀況。

Net sales were up 2.3% for the year, with strong revenue growth registered for all segments, except Coffee Systems, which was up in volume but essentially flat in dollars due to our previously discussed strategic pod pricing investment.

今年淨銷售額增長 2.3%，除咖啡系統外，所有細分市場的收入均強勁增長，由於我們之前討論過的策略性豆莢定價投資，咖啡系統銷量有所增長，但美元基本持平。

Operating income advanced approximately 7% to $2.6 billion, with double-digit growth in the second half of the year, more than offsetting flat performance in the first half. For the year, the profit contribution from growth in net sales and continued strong productivity was partially offset by increased inflation in input cost and logistics.

營業收入增長約 7%，達到 26 億美元，下半年實現兩位數增長，抵消了上半年的平淡表現。今年，淨銷售額增長和持續強勁的生產力帶來的利潤貢獻被投入成本和物流通脹上升部分抵消。

Further, the operating gains from changes in the Allied Brands portfolio in 2018 were less than those realized in 2017. Adjusted diluted EPS advanced 22% to $1.04 for the year, squarely in line with our targets. Reflecting the growth in operating income and lower interest expense as well as the benefit of nonoperating income recorded in 2018 related to a cash distribution from BODYARMOR and a gain from the acquisition of Core. Also benefiting the comparison was a lower effective tax rate in 2018 due to U.S. tax reform.

此外，2018 年聯合品牌投資組合變化帶來的運營收益低於 2017 年實現的收益。今年調整後的攤薄每股收益增長 22% 至 1.04 美元，完全符合我們的目標。反映了 2018 年營業收入的增長和利息支出的下降，以及與 BODYARMOR 的現金分配和收購 Core 的收益相關的非營業收入的收益。由於美國稅制改革，2018 年有效稅率較低，這也使這一比較受益。

Turning to our segments. On an adjusted pro forma basis. I'll start with Beverage Concentrates, which posted strong results for the year. Net sales, which represents our sales of concentrates to bottlers and serves the fountain customers, advanced approximately 4%, driven by growth in both net realized pricing and volume mix. The increase in net sales was driven by very strong growth of Dr Pepper and A&W as well as increased sales for Squirt, Schweppes, Big Red and Canada Dry.

轉向我們的細分市場。在調整後的預估基礎上。我將從濃縮飲料開始，該公司今年取得了強勁的業績。淨銷售額（代表我們向裝瓶商銷售的濃縮液並為噴泉客戶提供服務）增長了約 4%，這得益於淨實現定價和銷量組合的增長。淨銷售額的增長得益於 Dr Pepper 和 A&W 的強勁增長，以及 Squirt、Schweppes、Big Red 和 Canada Dry 銷售額的增長。

Operating income for Beverage Concentrates advanced 5% for the year, reflecting the strong net sales performance and slightly lower marketing spend. Turning to Packaged Beverages. Packaged Beverages delivered 4% growth in net sales for the year, reflecting volume mix growth of 5.4% for continuing brands, partially offset by the anticipated unfavorable impact of 1.2%, resulting from changes in the Allied brands portfolio during the year.

濃縮飲料的營業收入今年增長了 5%，反映出強勁的淨銷售業績和略低的營銷支出。轉向包裝飲料。包裝飲料今年的淨銷售額增長了 4%，反映出持續品牌的銷量組合增長了 5.4%，但部分被聯盟品牌組合今年變化帶來的 1.2% 的不利影響所抵消。

Pricing for the year was essentially even with the year-ago, driven by the pricing actions implemented in late Q3 that offset lower net price realization earlier in the year. Driving the net sales momentum was double-digit revenue growth of Canada Dry, reflecting successful innovation. Dr Pepper also registered growth for the year, driven by the particular strength of our college football marketing campaign, Fansville, which featured an engaging storyline that played out over the course of the season. Core and Bai also posted very strong growth, partially offset by FIJI, Vita Coco and Hawaiian Punch. Contract manufacturing also contributed to the revenue growth for the year.

由於第三季度末實施的定價行動抵消了今年早些時候較低的淨價格實現，今年的定價基本與去年同期持平。推動淨銷售勢頭的是 Canada Dry 兩位數的收入增長，反映出成功的創新。受我們大學橄欖球營銷活動 Fansville 的獨特優勢的推動，Dr Pepper 今年也取得了增長，該活動的特色是在整個賽季中上演的引人入勝的故事情節。Core 和 Bai 也實現了非常強勁的增長，但部分被 FIJI、Vita Coco 和 Hawaiian Punch 所抵消。合同製造也為今年的收入增長做出了貢獻。

Operating income and Packaged Beverages declined approximately 10% for the year, primarily due to inflation that was not covered until we took pricing late in the third quarter as well as the impact of gains recorded from Allied Brands being lower in 2018 than 2017. Partially offsetting these factors were the benefits of net sales growth and productivity. Illustrating the importance of our late year pricing actions, operating income for Packaged Beverages accelerated in the fourth quarter, growing more than 8%, which Ozan will cover shortly.

營業收入和包裝飲料全年下降約 10%，主要是由於直到第三季度末定價才涵蓋通貨膨脹，以及 Allied Brands 2018 年收益低於 2017 年的影響。淨銷售額增長和生產率的好處部分抵消了這些因素。包裝飲料業務的營業收入在第四季度加速增長，增長超過 8%，這說明了我們年底定價行動的重要性，Ozan 很快就會對此進行介紹。

As we head into spring, we see the benefits from the launch of Diet Canada Dry Ginger Ale Lemonade and the introduction of Canada Dry Ginger Ale and Orangeade, both of which will be supported by marketing investment. In addition, we have continued innovation plan for Dr Pepper and Snapple among other brands.

當我們進入春天時，我們看到了加拿大干薑汁汽水檸檬水的推出以及加拿大干薑汁汽水和橙汁的推出帶來的好處，這兩者都將得到營銷投資的支持。此外，我們對 Dr Pepper 和 Snapple 等品牌也有持續的創新計劃。

Turning now to Latin America Beverages. Latin America Beverages had a strong year, with net sales advancing 4% and operating income of 28%. The net sales performance reflected higher net pricing of 5.5% and favorable volume mix of approximately 1%, partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency translation of 2%.

現在轉向拉丁美洲飲料。拉丁美洲飲料業務今年表現強勁，淨銷售額增長 4%，營業收入增長 28%。淨銷售業績反映了 5.5% 的較高淨定價和約 1% 的有利銷量組合，部分被 2% 的不利外幣換算所抵消。

Peñafiel led the growth in net sales along with Clamato, Squirt and Mott (sic) [Mott's]. Operating income for Latin America Beverages grew 28% to $82 million for the year, primarily reflecting the growth in net sales as well as the favorable impact of comparison to a year-ago write-off of prepaid resin inventory and to a lesser extent, productivity.

Peñafiel 與 Clamato、Squirt 和 Mott（原文如此）[Mott's] 一起引領了淨銷售額的增長。拉丁美洲飲料業務全年營業收入增長 28%，達到 8200 萬美元，主要反映了淨銷售額的增長以及與去年同期沖銷預付樹脂庫存相比的有利影響，以及在較小程度上反映了生產率的有利影響。

Now turning to the Coffee Systems segment. Coffee Systems had a solid year, with volume mix up 3.2%, driven by strong K-Cup pod volume growth, offset by lower net realized pricing of 3.7%, reflecting the previously discussed strategic pod pricing investment which continues to moderate. K-Cup pod volume grew 7.4% for the year, driven by increased household penetration of the Keurig brewing system, which expanded by 7% and is now approaching 22% on a rolling 52-week basis ending December.

現在轉向咖啡系統領域。Coffee Systems 在 K-Cup 豆莢銷量強勁增長的推動下，今年表現強勁，銷量增長了 3.2%，但被 3.7% 的淨實現定價下降所抵消，反映出之前討論的豆莢定價策略投資持續放緩。由於 Keurig 釀造系統的家庭滲透率提高，K-Cup 豆莢銷量今年增長了 7.4%，截至 12 月的 52 週滾動增長了 7%，目前接近 22%。

Somewhat counterintuitively, brewer volume declined 1.5%, despite the growth in household penetration. This is a result of increased brewer quality, which has led to consumers holding on to their brewers longer and has also resulted in fewer returns. Brewer sales were also impacted by the discontinuation of select legacy brewer models, partially offset by the success of our recently introduced K-Cafe and redesigned K-Mini. Since 2016, our entire brewer lineup has been refreshed or replaced with new models.

有點違反直覺的是，儘管家庭滲透率有所增長，但啤酒銷量卻下降了 1.5%。這是啤酒廠質量提高的結果，這導致消費者保留啤酒廠的時間更長，但回報也更少。啤酒機銷售也受到部分傳統啤酒機型號停產的影響，但我們最近推出的 K-Cafe 和重新設計的 K-Mini 的成功部分抵消了這一影響。自 2016 年以來，我們的整個啤酒機系列已更新或更換為新型號。

The launch of K-Cafe, which was supported by the second year of our Brew-The-Love campaign featuring James Cordon, has been well received in the market. K-Cafe enables consumers to make lattes and cappuccinos at home using any K-Cup pod. The consumer reviews of the new brewer have been exceptionally strong. In addition, our updated K-Mini brewer platform, which features a modern sleek design and improved coffee quality and temperature, is another example of our robust innovation-type program designed to drive new household penetration in the Keurig system.

K-Cafe 的推出得到了 James Cordon 參與的第二年 Brew-The-Love 活動的支持，受到了市場的好評。K-Cafe 使消費者能夠使用任何 K-Cup 咖啡包在家製作拿鐵和卡布奇諾。消費者對這家新啤酒廠的評價異常強烈。此外，我們更新的 K-Mini 沖泡機平台採用現代時尚設計，並提高了咖啡質量和溫度，這是我們強大的創新型計劃的另一個例子，旨在推動 Keurig 系統在新家庭中的普及。

Operating income for Coffee Systems was up a strong 9% for the year, primarily reflecting volume growth and strong productivity, partially offset by strategic pod pricing investment, inflation and higher marketing. As you know, partnerships are a key element of our Coffee Systems strategy. And in 2018, we added Tim Hortons, the iconic coffee brand in Canada, which was previously unlicensed and Panera, the well-regarded bakery café brand in the U.S. We've also signed an agreement with McCafe in Canada, previously an unlicensed brand, which we will begin distributing in 2020.

Coffee Systems 的營業收入今年強勁增長 9%，主要反映了銷量增長和強勁的生產力，但部分被戰略豆莢定價投資、通貨膨脹和更高的營銷所抵消。如您所知，合作夥伴關係是我們咖啡系統戰略的關鍵要素。2018年，我們又增加了加拿大標誌性咖啡品牌Tim Hortons（此前未經許可）和美國備受推崇的烘焙咖啡館品牌Panera。我們還與加拿大McCafe（此前未經許可）簽署了協議，我們將於 2020 年開始分發。

We also added and expanded multiple private label partnerships in 2018. And finally, the strong pace of brewer innovation will continue in 2019. While too early to share the specifics today, on our next call, we will have the opportunity to discuss our 2019 innovation plan, which will begin shipping in Q2. We will also be increasing our investment behind Keurig brand marketing this year.

2018 年，我們還增加並擴大了多個自有品牌合作夥伴關係。最後，啤酒製造商創新的強勁步伐將在 2019 年繼續。雖然今天分享具體細節還為時過早，但在下次電話會議上，我們將有機會討論我們的 2019 年創新計劃，該計劃將於第二季度開始發貨。今年我們還將增加對 Keurig 品牌營銷的投資。

Before I turn it over to Ozan to provide more detail on the latest quarter and 2018 full year, I'll speak to our 2019 targets. For the full year, we're targeting adjusted pro forma diluted EPS growth in the range of 15% to 17%, representing $1.20 to $1.22 per share. This growth rate is the same as the long-term target we communicated at the merger announcement over a year-ago, despite an increasingly challenging operating environment marked by higher inflation and CSD industry volumes that are somewhat pressured by the elasticity impact of pricing. To navigate these pressures, we are strengthening our productivity efforts and investing in innovation, marketing and retail execution to continue to drive market share gain. With that, I'll hand it off to Ozan.

在我將其交給 Ozan 提供有關最新季度和 2018 年全年的更多詳細信息之前，我將談談我們的 2019 年目標。對於全年，我們的目標是調整後預計攤薄後每股收益增長在 15% 至 17% 範圍內，即每股 1.20 美元至 1.22 美元。這一增長率與我們一年多前在合併公告中傳達的長期目標相同，儘管運營環境日益嚴峻，通貨膨脹率上升，而且 CSD 行業銷量在一定程度上受到定價彈性影響的壓力。為了應對這些壓力，我們正在加強生產力工作，並投資於創新、營銷和零售執行，以繼續推動市場份額的增長。這樣，我就把它交給奧讚了。

Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the results of the fourth quarter, which was another very good one for KDP. I will then transition to our outlook for 2019. Continuing on an adjusted pro forma basis, net sales for the fourth quarter increased 0.5% to $2.81 billion compared to $2.80 billion in the prior year, which reflected underlying net sales growth of 2.3%, significantly offset by unfavorable impact of 1.8% from changes in our Allied Brands portfolio, which we expected. The underlying 2.3% growth was driven by higher volume mix of 2.7%, partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency translation of 0.4%.

謝謝鮑勃，大家早上好。讓我從第四季度的結果開始，這對 KDP 來說是又一個非常好的結果。然後我將過渡到我們對 2019 年的展望。繼續在調整後的預估基礎上，第四季度淨銷售額增長 0.5%，達到 28.1 億美元，而上年同期為 28.0 億美元，這反映出基本淨銷售額增長 2.3%，但被 1.8% 的不利影響所抵消我們的聯合品牌產品組合，正如我們所期望的那樣。2.3% 的基本增長是由 2.7% 的銷量增長推動的，但部分被 0.4% 的不利外幣換算所抵消。

Net realized pricing in the quarter was flat. Operating income in the quarter increased nearly 13% to $720 million compared to $638 million in the prior year. This performance primarily reflected strong productivity; lower general and administrative expenses; reduced marketing spending; and the benefit of the net sales growth. Partially offsetting these drivers was inflation in input costs and logistics.

本季度的淨實現定價持平。本季度營業收入增長近 13%，達到 7.2 億美元，而上年同期為 6.38 億美元。這一業績主要反映了強勁的生產力；降低一般和管理費用；減少營銷支出；以及淨銷售額增長的好處。投入成本和物流的通貨膨脹部分抵消了這些驅動因素。

On a margin basis, operating income advanced 280 basis points in the quarter to 25.6%. Before turning to a quick review of the segments, it's worth noting the acceleration in performance in the second half of 2018 versus the first half prior to the merger close. Specifically, operating income advanced 13.5% versus year ago in the second half compared to a slight decline in the first 6 months of 2018. This step up in performance largely reflected very strong productivity and the benefit of pricing actions in Packaged Beverages taken in the third quarter.

按利潤率計算，本季度營業收入增長 280 個基點，達到 25.6%。在快速回顧各個細分市場之前，值得注意的是 2018 年下半年的業績較合併完成前的上半年有所加速。具體而言，下半年營業收入同比增長 13.5%，而 2018 年前 6 個月略有下降。業績的提升很大程度上反映了非常強勁的生產力以及第三季度包裝飲料定價行動的好處。

In terms of segment performance for the fourth quarter, on an adjusted pro forma basis, net sales for Beverage Concentrates increased 4.8% to $352 million, driven by higher net price realization of 2.6% and increased volume mix of 2.4%. Partially offsetting these positive factors was unfavorable currency translation of 0.2%. This growth was fueled by sales of Dr Pepper, along with increases in 7UP, Big Red, Schweppes and Sunkist.

就第四季度的部門業績而言，在調整後的預計基礎上，濃縮飲料的淨銷售額增長了 4.8%，達到 3.52 億美元，這是由於淨價格實現增加了 2.6%，銷量組合增加了 2.4%。0.2% 的不利貨幣換算部分抵消了這些積極因素。這一增長得益於 Dr Pepper 的銷售以及 7UP、Big Red、Schweppes 和新奇士的銷售增長。

The shipment volume growth for Beverage Concentrates was driven by Canada Dry, Dr Pepper, Big Red and Sunkist. In terms of bottler case sales, Beverage Concentrates registered growth of nearly 1% in the quarter. Operating income for Beverage Concentrates increased more than 14% to $242 million, reflecting the benefits of the net sales growth and lower marketing, partially offset by inflation.

濃縮飲料的出貨量增長是由 Canada Dry、Dr Pepper、Big Red 和新奇士推動的。就瓶裝箱銷售而言，濃縮飲料本季度增長了近 1%。濃縮飲料的營業收入增長了 14% 以上，達到 2.42 億美元，反映出淨銷售額增長和營銷活動減少帶來的好處，但部分被通貨膨脹所抵消。

As a percentage of net sales, operating margin advanced 570 basis points versus year ago to 68.8%. Net sales for our Packaged Beverages segment were essentially even with year ago at $1.18 billion, including the unfavorable impact of 4.2% from the changes in our Allied Brands portfolio, which we expected. Excluding this impact, underlying net sales grew 4.3%, reflecting favorable volume mix of growth 2.7% and net price realization of 1.7%.

營業利潤率占淨銷售額的百分比較去年同期上升 570 個基點，達到 68.8%。我們的包裝飲料部門的淨銷售額與去年同期基本持平，為 11.8 億美元，其中包括我們預期的聯合品牌產品組合變化帶來的 4.2% 的不利影響。排除這一影響，基本淨銷售額增長 4.3%，反映出銷量增長 2.7% 和淨價實現 1.7% 的有利組合。

Unfavorable foreign currency translation of 0.1% served as a slight offset to the growth. Driving the strong underlying net sales growth of our Canada Dry, Core, Dr Pepper, Big Red and Mott’s as well as contract manufacturing.

0.1% 的不利外幣換算略微抵消了增長。推動 Canada Dry、Core、Dr Pepper、Big Red 和 Mott’s 以及合同製造業務的強勁潛在淨銷售增長。

Operating income for Packaged Beverages increased 8% to $206 million, largely reflecting the underlying net sales growth, including pricing actions taken late in the third quarter as well as favorable product mix, productivity savings and lower marketing spending. These factors were partially offset by inflation and the unfavorable comparison against the $21 million gain on Bai in the fourth quarter of 2017.

包裝飲料業務的營業收入增長了 8%，達到 2.06 億美元，很大程度上反映了潛在的淨銷售額增長，包括第三季度末採取的定價行動以及有利的產品組合、生產力節省和營銷支出的降低。這些因素被通貨膨脹以及與 2017 年第四季度 Bai 的 2100 萬美元收益的不利比較部分抵消。

Net sales for Latin America Beverages increased 1.7% to $120 million compared to $118 million in the prior year. This performance was driven by higher net price realization of 5.8% and favorable volume mix of 0.1%, partially offset by unfavorable currency translation of 4.2%.

拉丁美洲飲料的淨銷售額增長了 1.7%，達到 1.2 億美元，而上一年為 1.18 億美元。這一業績是由 5.8% 的淨價格實現增長和 0.1% 的有利銷量組合推動的，但部分被不利的貨幣換算 4.2% 所抵消。

Operating income for Latin America Beverages advanced 20% to $18 million, reflecting the benefits of the net sales growth and productivity savings, partially offset by inflation.

拉丁美洲飲料部門的營業收入增長了 20%，達到 1,800 萬美元，反映出淨銷售額增長和生產力節省帶來的好處，但部分被通貨膨脹所抵消。

Finally, net sales of our Coffee Systems segment declined 0.5% to $1.16 billion in the quarter. This performance reflected higher volume mix of 2.9%, more than offset by lower net price realization of 3% and unfavorable foreign currency translation of 0.4%. The 2.9% volume mix growth for Coffee Systems was driven by an 8.6% increase in K-Cup pod volume, partially offset by an 8.6% decline for brewers during the quarter. The latter being primarily driven by shipment timing between the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

最後，我們的咖啡系統部門本季度的淨銷售額下降了 0.5%，至 11.6 億美元。這一業績反映了 2.9% 的較高銷量組合，但被 3% 的較低淨價實現和 0.4% 的不利外幣換算所抵消。咖啡系統銷量增長 2.9%，是由 K-Cup 咖啡包銷量增長 8.6% 推動的，但本季度啤酒製造商銷量下降 8.6% 部分抵消了這一增長。後者主要受到第三季度和第四季度之間的發貨時間的推動。

For perspective, brewer sales in the second half were modestly below year ago. As you know, Q4 is a big brewer selling period for retailers, and their purchase of inventory can ship between the third and fourth quarter. Partially offsetting these factors were recent innovation launches that have been very well received in the marketplace.

從長遠來看，下半年啤酒銷量略低於去年同期。如您所知，第四季度是零售商的啤酒大銷售期，他們購買的庫存可以在第三季度和第四季度之間發貨。最近推出的創新產品在市場上廣受好評，部分抵消了這些因素。

Operating income for Coffee Systems advanced approximately 9% to $328 million, primarily reflecting strong productivity, partially offset by higher marketing expense and inflation.

Coffee Systems 的營業收入增長約 9%，達到 3.28 億美元，主要反映了強勁的生產力，但部分被較高的營銷費用和通貨膨脹所抵消。

Turning to interests. Interest expense in the fourth quarter totaled $139 million, reflecting a $21 million benefit from unwinding several interest rate swap contracts, our ongoing deleveraging and the benefit of commercial paper in our debt structure in 2018. You may have also noticed that earlier this month, we announced the refinancing of our term loan in an oversubscribed syndication that reduced the pricing on our outstanding term loan balance of $2 billion by approximately 30 basis points. The support that we continue to receive from our banking partners speaks to the confidence our lenders place in KDP.

轉向興趣。第四季度的利息支出總計 1.39 億美元，反映出解除多項利率互換合約、我們持續的去槓桿化以及 2018 年債務結構中商業票據的好處帶來的 2100 萬美元的收益。您可能還注意到，本月早些時候，我們宣布以超額認購的銀團形式對定期貸款進行再融資，這將我們 20 億美元的未償定期貸款餘額的定價降低了約 30 個基點。我們繼續從銀行合作夥伴那裡獲得的支持表明了我們的貸款機構對 KDP 的信心。

Net income for the quarter increased 28% to $423 million, driven by strong operating income growth and the lower interest expense we reported in the quarter. Taking all of these factors together, our adjusted pro forma diluted EPS in the quarter increased 25% to $0.30 per diluted share compared to $0.24 per diluted share in the prior year.

由於營業收入強勁增長和本季度利息支出下降，該季度淨利潤增長 28% 至 4.23 億美元。綜合考慮所有這些因素，本季度調整後的預計稀釋每股收益增長 25%，達到稀釋每股 0.30 美元，而上一年稀釋每股收益為 0.24 美元。

In terms of leverage, we paid down approximately $940 million of bank debt since merger close, reducing our bank debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, which we refer to as our management leverage ratio by [half] return to 5.4x. This aggressive pace of deleveraging is consistent with our expectations, and we are confident that we will achieve our leverage target in the time frame previously committed.

在槓桿方面，自合併結束以來，我們償還了約 9.4 億美元的銀行債務，從而將我們的銀行債務與調整後的 EBITDA 比率（我們稱之為管理槓桿率）降低至 5.4 倍。這種積極的去槓桿步伐符合我們的預期，我們有信心在之前承諾的時間範圍內實現我們的槓桿目標。

This rapid debt paydown in the 6 months period following the merger close was supported by strong free cash flow delivery. In 2019, we expect free cash flow to approximate $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion, which will be a significant enabler to our ongoing deleveraging. We remain firmly committed to achieving our targeted leverage below 3x in 2 to 3 years from merger closing.

合併結束後 6 個月內債務的快速償還得到了強勁的自由現金流交付的支持。2019年，我們預計自由現金流約為23億至25億美元，這將成為我們持續去槓桿化的重要推動力。我們仍然堅定地致力於在合併完成後 2 至 3 年內實現槓桿率低於 3 倍的目標。

And finally, in terms of our outlook for 2019. As Bob already mentioned, for the full year, we expect adjusted pro forma diluted EPS growth in the range of 15% to 17%, representing $1.20 to $1.22 per share, in line with our long-term merger algorithm.

最後，我們對 2019 年的展望。正如鮑勃已經提到的，我們預計全年調整後預計攤薄每股收益增長在 15% 至 17% 範圍內，即每股 1.20 美元至 1.22 美元，這與我們的長期合併算法一致。

Net sales are expected to grow approximately 2%, which is also in line with our long-term merger target of 2% to 3%, despite the short-term transitory impact we discussed with you last quarter from the changes in our Allied Brands portfolio. We continue to expect merger synergies of $200 million in 2019, consistent with our long-term merger target. There are a few items related to changes in the Allied Brands portfolio in 2018 that we do not expect to repeat in 2019. These items totaled $58 million in gains in 2018, specifically, other operating income in 2019 is expected to be a few million dollars of expense, as it will exclude the $22 million gain on Big Red recorded in 2018.

淨銷售額預計將增長約 2%，這也符合我們 2% 至 3% 的長期合併目標，儘管我們上季度與您討論了聯合品牌產品組合變化帶來的短期暫時影響。我們仍然預計 2019 年的合併協同效應將達到 2 億美元，這與我們的長期合併目標一致。有一些與 2018 年聯合品牌產品組合變化相關的項目，我們預計 2019 年不會重複。這些項目在 2018 年的收益總計為 5800 萬美元，具體而言，2019 年的其他營業收入預計將是幾百萬美元的支出，因為它不包括 2018 年記錄的 Big Red 的 2200 萬美元收益。

Below operating income, other nonoperating income and expense is expected to be an expense of $30 million in 2019, as it will exclude the combined $36 million of gains recorded on Core and BODYARMOR in 2018. Interest expense is expected to be in the range of $570 million to $590 million. This reflects our expectation of significant cash flow generation and continued deleveraging during 2019 as well as the benefit from additional unwinding of interest rate swap contracts, which is a strategy we use to manage interest rate risk.

低於營業收入，其他非營業收入和支出預計 2019 年將達到 3000 萬美元，因為這不包括 2018 年 Core 和 BODYARMOR 記錄的總計 3600 萬美元的收益。利息支出預計在 5.7 億至 5.9 億美元之間。這反映了我們對 2019 年產生大量現金流和持續去槓桿化的預期，以及額外解除利率掉期合約的好處，這是我們用來管理利率風險的策略。

Our effective tax rate for 2019 is estimated in the range of 25% to 25.5% for the year. We expect our diluted weighted average shares outstanding to approach 1.42 billion in 2019, including the 16.7 million of shares issued in November 2018 for the acquisition of Core. While we are not providing EPS guidance by Core, we expect EPS growth versus 2018 to be tempered in quarter 2 and quarter 3 due to comping the significant gains on Allied Brands in 2018 that we discussed today.

我們 2019 年的有效稅率預計在 25% 至 25.5% 範圍內。我們預計 2019 年稀釋後加權平均流通股將接近 14.2 億股，其中包括 2018 年 11 月為收購 Core 發行的 1,670 萬股。雖然我們沒有提供 Core 的每股收益指引，但我們預計第二季度和第三季度的每股收益相對 2018 年的增長將有所放緩，因為我們今天討論了 2018 年聯合品牌的顯著收益。

With this perspective, you should also keep in mind the following when doing your modeling. We expect our second half synergies to be greater than our first half synergies as our programs build throughout the year. Based on our input cost coverage, we expect inflation to be the highest in the first quarter and then moderate over the balance of the year. Finally, the shift [in investment] into the second quarter this year from the first quarter in 2018 will likely pressure quarter 1 net sales and operating income in 2019 by approximately $20 million and $10 million, respectively.

從這個角度來看，您在進行建模時還應該記住以下幾點。隨著我們的計劃全年不斷建立，我們預計下半年的協同效應將大於上半年的協同效應。根據我們的投入成本覆蓋率，我們預計通脹將在第一季度達到最高水平，然後在今年剩餘時間裡放緩。最後，從 2018 年第一季度轉向今年第二季度的[投資]可能會給 2019 年第一季度的淨銷售額和營業收入分別帶來約 2000 萬美元和 1000 萬美元的壓力。

With that, before taking your questions, I will turn it back to Maria who has some good news to share regarding IRI data.

因此，在回答您的問題之前，我將把問題轉回給 Maria，她有一些關於 IRI 數據的好消息要分享。

Thanks, Ozan. I know that tracking KDP manufactured pod performance is challenging for you using the existing syndicated reporting. I'm pleased to share that in addition to the regular reporting, IRI has developed a KDP manufactured sales trend report for single-serve coffee that encompasses all of the K-Cup pods manufactured by KDP, whether owned, license, partner or private label. This new report will be available directly from IRI beginning in March. I hope you find it useful. With that, I'll turn it back to the operator for questions.

謝謝，奧贊。我知道使用現有的聯合報告跟踪 KDP 製造的 Pod 性能對您來說是一項挑戰。我很高興與大家分享，除了定期報告之外，IRI 還開發了 KDP 製造的單份咖啡銷售趨勢報告，其中涵蓋 KDP 製造的所有 K-Cup 咖啡包，無論是自有、許可、合作夥伴還是自有品牌。這份新報告將從 3 月份開始直接從 IRI 獲取。希望對你有幫助。這樣，我會將其轉回給接線員詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼（Lauren Lieberman）。

I know you guys went through some of the data points on brewer sales and the dynamics of the replacement cycle. But I think that might be -- there might be a bit of confusion this morning around results from the coffee segment. So if you could just talk again a little bit about how you were thinking about the role of brewers, brewer sales, brewer profitability, how that may have changed in the long-term plan? And also, anything around pods as you see it as being indicative of kind of consumer uptick, adoption rates, things like that. Because I think what I'm getting from people this morning is just questions around that coffee segment, and does this mean that my long-standing concerns about legacy KGM business are coming to fruition? So I'd just love your perspective on that.

我知道你們已經了解了一些有關啤酒銷售和更換週期動態的數據點。但我認為，今天早上咖啡部門的結果可能會有些混亂。那麼，如果您能再談談您是如何看待啤酒商的角色、啤酒商銷售、啤酒商盈利能力的，那麼長期計劃中這些方面可能發生了怎樣的變化？而且，你認為豆莢周圍的任何事情都表明消費者的增長、採用率等。因為我認為今天早上我從人們那裡得到的只是有關咖啡細分市場的問題，這是否意味著我長期以來對傳統 KGM 業務的擔憂即將實現？所以我很想听聽你對此的看法。

Yes, thanks, Lauren, happy to answer that. From our perspective, the metrics across the board on the Coffee System (sic) [Coffee Systems] are all flashing green. I think our understanding is that sometimes it's a complicated business that requires some thought from our perspective to tell you why we feel that way. And it's consistent with what we talked about in the March -- of a year-ago Investor Day as well as the follow-up analyst meeting that we had. So let me start at a higher level about the metrics that really matter on this business from management perspective, and then I want to drill specifically into household penetration, brewer sales and a little bit on what we see on pods. So our -- the way that we run this business is the 4 metrics that matter: our household penetration of the system, pod volume growth, KDP manufactured pod share and coffee system profitability. Every single one of those metrics is going in the right direction in a very significant way. Household penetration, up 7% in the past year to about 22% of households. There are now 28 million households in the United States that are using a Keurig brewer on a regular basis, and we still believe there's another 67 million households left for us to target. But a 7% growth in household penetration up to 28 million households is significant. Pod volume growth, up significantly. If you take a look at the pod -- K-Cup pod category in IRI plus 10% for the year, incredibly robust. KDP manufactured share, up a point to 82% as we talked about. And we gave you the list of partners that we've added over the past year, some of them very significant, several of them were unlicensed parties, and we haven't lost anyone in the past year. So that speaks to the forward-looking confidence we have in that. And then finally, coffee profitability. I'll get to brewer sales because then people are concerned about brewer sales which shows 0 correlation in the short term between household penetration and brewer sales, and we're going to give you the example of that right now. But also things like mix and pricing. We also have to look at Coffee Systems, even with the investment in pricing, grew margin in the fourth quarter by 240 basis points. And for the year, 290 basis points, which tells you that we also had incredible line of sight to productivity that we use to protect that pricing investment that we made. So those are the metrics that matter. Some of those are easier for you to get than others, but we're disclosing household penetration on an annual basis as we did today. And as Maria said, there's now a report available through IRI that will allow you to measure KDP manufactured pod shares. So those are all pointing in the right directions so that you can see the business the way that we do. Let me just talk about brewer sales for a minute. At a very high level, we talked in the past, kind of theoretically, that you could have a situation where brewer sales were up significantly but have little impact on household penetration because they were all replacements. Similarly, we talked about a theoretical scenario where brewers could be down significantly, yet household penetration was up because the replacement cycle was different, and they were all going to new households. We're more towards that in 2018 in the last quarter, which our brewer sales were down, but household penetration was way up. The reason underlying that is actually really good news. A higher percentage of the brewers sold went to new [households] versus replacement households. Why is that? Because the quality of the brewers is up significantly. You can see that by going online on Amazon or Walmart or anywhere else and look at the star ratings of the brewers and how much higher they were than those in the past. We also see it because we see significantly lower returns and significantly lower warranty claims. Those are really good for the P&L in addition to speaking towards a better mix of new users versus replacement users. And the other part is we know as one of the metrics that we track internally is that consumers are happier with their brewers. They don't break. And as a result, they're holding onto their brewers for longer. So we're in sort of this virtuous situation it's the opposite, I think, of being concerned. We're actually very bullish. Because of the quality of our brewers, we're driving household penetration. And ironically, it means that we're going to have some lower brewer sales in situations like we did in fourth quarter because nobody's -- fewer people are buying them to replace a broken brewer, that means happier consumers in the end. So net-net, we see these as all flashing green from that standpoint. Then the last thing I'll say on this point and apologies for the very long answer, but I think it's a really important question. In the past, when the company lost a significant amount of money on brewers, everybody wanted to model brewer sales because the more you sold, the bigger the negative impact on profitability. Similarly, if we made a lot of money on brewers, you'd want to know that because there'd be a direct correlation between sales going up and down and profitability. We're about breakeven, as we've talked about. So to be honest with you, brewer revenue going up or down has 0 impact on the profitability on our P&L. And the only thing that you guys would care about it for is a proxy for household penetration. And as I just went through in great detail, it's actually a poor proxy for household penetration. So short answer is, brewer revenue is really a meaningless metric in terms of our P&L as well as in indicating the health of the system.

是的，謝謝，勞倫，很高興回答這個問題。從我們的角度來看，咖啡系統（原文如此）[咖啡系統] 的全面指標都呈綠色閃爍。我認為我們的理解是，有時這是一件複雜的事情，需要從我們的角度進行一些思考才能告訴您為什麼我們有這樣的感覺。這與我們在三月份的一年前投資者日以及我們舉行的後續分析師會議上所討論的內容是一致的。因此，讓我從管理角度從更高的層面開始討論對這項業務真正重要的指標，然後我想專門深入研究家庭滲透率、啤酒商銷售以及我們在豆莢上看到的一些內容。因此，我們經營這項業務的方式是 4 個重要指標：我們的家庭滲透率、咖啡包銷量增長、KDP 製造的咖啡包份額和咖啡系統盈利能力。這些指標中的每一個都在以非常重要的方式朝著正確的方向發展。家庭滲透率在過去一年上升了 7%，達到約 22% 的家庭。美國現在有 2800 萬家庭定期使用 Keurig 啤酒機，我們仍然相信還有 6700 萬家庭是我們的目標。但家庭滲透率增長 7%（達到 2800 萬戶）的意義重大。莢果量增長，漲幅明顯。如果你看一下 IRI 中的 K-Cup pod 類別，全年增加 10%，非常強勁。正如我們所說，KDP 製造份額上升至 82%。我們向您提供了我們在過去一年中添加的合作夥伴名單，其中一些非常重要，其中一些是未經許可的合作夥伴，並且我們在過去一年中沒有失去任何人。這說明了我們對此的前瞻性信心。最後是咖啡的盈利能力。我將討論啤酒機銷售，因為人們擔心啤酒機銷售，這表明家庭滲透率和啤酒機銷售之間短期內的相關性為零，我們現在將給您舉個例子。還有諸如組合和定價之類的事情。我們還必須關注 Coffee Systems，即使在定價方面進行了投資，第四季度的利潤率仍增長了 240 個基點。今年為 290 個基點，這告訴您我們對生產力也擁有令人難以置信的視野，我們用它來保護我們所做的定價投資。所以這些才是重要的指標。其中一些對您來說比其他人更容易獲得，但我們將像今天一樣每年披露家庭滲透率。正如 Maria 所說，現在 IRI 提供了一份報告，可以讓您衡量 KDP 製造的 Pod 份額。因此，這些都指向正確的方向，以便您可以像我們一樣看待業務。讓我簡單談談啤酒銷售。在非常高的層面上，我們過去從理論上講，可能會出現啤酒銷量大幅上升但對家庭滲透率影響不大的情況，因為它們都是替代品。同樣，我們討論了一種理論情景，即啤酒生產商可能會大幅下降，但家庭滲透率卻上升，因為更換週期不同，而且它們都流向了新家庭。我們更傾向於 2018 年最後一個季度，我們的啤酒銷量下降，但家庭滲透率大幅上升。其背後的原因實際上是一個好消息。與替換家庭相比，出售給新[家庭]的啤酒廠比例更高。這是為什麼？因為釀酒師的質量顯著提高。您可以通過在亞馬遜、沃爾瑪或其他任何地方上網查看釀酒商的星級以及它們比過去高出多少來看到這一點。我們看到這一點還因為我們看到退貨率顯著降低，保修索賠也顯著降低。除了可以更好地組合新用戶與替換用戶之外，這些對於損益確實有好處。另一方面，我們知道，我們內部跟踪的指標之一是消費者對他們的啤酒製造商更滿意。它們不會破裂。因此，他們保留釀酒商的時間更長。所以我們處於一種良性的境地，我認為這與擔憂相反。我們實際上非常看好。由於我們啤酒廠的質量，我們正在推動家庭滲透率。具有諷刺意味的是，這意味著在像第四季度那樣的情況下，我們的啤酒機銷量將會有所下降，因為沒有人——更少的人購買它們來更換壞掉的啤酒機，這意味著最終消費者會更滿意。因此，從這個角度來看，我們認為這些都是閃爍的綠色。然後我要說的最後一件事是關於這一點，並對很長的答案表示歉意，但我認為這是一個非常重要的問題。過去，當公司在啤酒廠上損失慘重時，每個人都想對啤酒廠的銷售進行建模，因為銷售的越多，對盈利能力的負面影響就越大。同樣，如果我們在釀酒商身上賺了很多錢，你就會想知道這一點，因為銷售額的上升和下降與盈利能力之間存在直接相關性。正如我們所討論的，我們正在實現盈虧平衡。所以說實話，啤酒商收入的上升或下降對我們損益表的盈利能力影響為零。你們唯一關心的是家庭滲透率的指標。正如我剛剛詳細介紹的那樣，它實際上並不能代表家庭滲透率。簡而言之，就我們的損益以及表明系統的健康狀況而言，啤酒商收入實際上是一個毫無意義的指標。

Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的朱迪·洪（Judy Hong）。

So I guess the other sort of question or concern that I'm hearing for investors is 2019 guidance, and I know it's in line with your long-term target in terms of the EPS guidance. But if I sort of take the implied EBIT growth in 2019, it looks like it's around 10% versus the 11% to 12% EBITDA growth that you have given previously. So I first just wanted to confirm that this is in fact sort of what you're guiding to for '19, just from an EBIT growth perspective? And if so, is this reflective of some of the challenges that you called out, particularly on, I guess, the CSD side? And does it imply that you're going to be putting more investment to deal with some of the operating environment getting tougher?

因此，我想我聽到的投資者的另一類問題或擔憂是 2019 年指導，我知道這與你們在每股收益指導方面的長期目標一致。但如果我考慮 2019 年的隱含 EBIT 增長，它看起來約為 10%，而您之前給出的 EBITDA 增長為 11% 至 12%。所以我首先想確認一下，僅從息稅前利潤增長的角度來看，這實際上就是您為 19 年制定的目標？如果是這樣，這是否反映了您所提出的一些挑戰，特別是我猜是懲教署方面的挑戰？這是否意味著您將投入更多投資來應對一些日益嚴峻的運營環境？

This is Ozan. Our guidance, as we have communicated just now, is on the EPS, which is in line with our long-term merger target that we put out there, 15% to 17% and on net sales, 2% to 3%. And as you pointed out, we do -- we did also provide significant amount of details with regards to the makeup of the P&L, that -- hoping that we make your jobs easier to model it out. And you're right, we put the 11% to 12% operating income guidance back then as well. But as we said, it's a long-term algorithm. And it wouldn't be right to make specific comments on a year basis. What matters is how we are managing the overall results delivery over the long term, as the name implies. Sometimes there will be pluses or minuses here and there, but what matters is we're 100% committed to daily [where] 2 things, which is the bottom line of the company as well as the cash deleveraging to reduce our bank debt and overall to get to a lower multiple. On your second part questions, as Bob explained, we always look to the business from a holistic basis, call them hot, we make the investments whenever it is necessary. And then we look to the brewer side of the equation, we have been investing in our campaigns in order to improve the household penetration numbers and came in as a 7% growth, which was a very robust number. And whenever it is needed, as we have been doing, we will make the old trade-offs and the necessary investments in our cold side of the portfolio as well, which included a couple of brands of acquisition that we did in the second half of 2018.

這是奧贊。正如我們剛才所傳達的，我們的指導是每股收益，這與我們在那裡提出的長期合併目標一致，即 15% 至 17%，淨銷售額為 2% 至 3%。正如您所指出的，我們確實 - 我們也確實提供了有關損益表構成的大量詳細信息，希望我們能讓您的工作更容易對其進行建模。你是對的，我們當時也設定了 11% 到 12% 的營業收入指導。但正如我們所說，這是一個長期算法。而且以年份為單位進行具體評論是不正確的。顧名思義，重要的是我們如何長期管理整體結果交付。有時會有一些優點或缺點，但重要的是我們 100% 致力於日常 [where] 兩件事，這是公司的底線以及現金去槓桿化以減少我們的銀行債務和整體債務以獲得更低的倍數。關於你的第二部分問題，正如鮑勃所解釋的那樣，我們總是從整體上看待業務，稱其為熱門業務，只要有必要，我們就會進行投資。然後我們看看釀酒商方面，我們一直在投資我們的活動，以提高家庭普及率，並實現了 7% 的增長，這是一個非常強勁的數字。無論何時需要，正如我們一直在做的那樣，我們也會對投資組合的冷面進行舊的權衡和必要的投資，其中包括我們在下半年收購的幾個品牌2018.

Yes. Just to add, I think, our role as managers and also, as we said in [other cast], we have a significant amount of our personal investment in the company as well. So we're all [in line] of creating wealth is to make sure that we do it over the long term. So I think what you really want us to do as leaders is navigate really difficult environments, make sure that we're delivering the commitments that we have, which we are. We're right in line with the targets that we gave a year ago despite the environment that everyone else has talked about. But also doing it in a high quality way. So we're getting to these numbers that we talked about while still investing more in the marketing and innovation side of our business. And what's the evidence of that? The evidence of that is that we grew share across the great majority of our portfolio in 2018. And actually, if you take away the IRI in the first quarter of 2019, we grew share in every single segment of our business. So to be able to grow our business, invest in innovation and marketing, deliver the EPS targets while absorbing inflation that is significantly higher than it was at the time of the merger a year ago. I think is -- I'll say, I think it's pretty good management, good navigation of the complexity, and that's what you want out of us.

是的。我想補充一點，我們作為經理的角色，而且正如我們在[其他演員]中所說的那樣，我們也對公司進行了大量的個人投資。因此，我們所有人都致力於創造財富，以確保我們能夠長期這樣做。因此，我認為，作為領導者，您真正希望我們做的是應對非常困難的環境，確保我們履行我們所做出的承諾。儘管其他人都在談論環境，但我們仍然符合一年前提出的目標。而且還要以高質量的方式去做。因此，我們在獲得我們討論的這些數字的同時，仍在我們業務的營銷和創新方面進行更多投資。那有什麼證據呢？證明這一點的證據是，2018 年我們絕大多數投資組合的份額都有所增長。事實上，如果剔除 2019 年第一季度的 IRI，我們在各個業務領域的份額都有所增長。因此，為了能夠發展我們的業務，投資於創新和營銷，實現每股收益目標，同時吸收明顯高於一年前合併時的通貨膨脹。我認為——我會說，我認為這是非常好的管理，對複雜性的良好導航，這就是您對我們的期望。

Yes, I guess just to follow-up on that, just wanted to be clear just in terms of the forward commentary because Bob, you alluded to sort of the price elasticity pressure in CSD. Obviously, you know Pepsi is investing pretty significantly in their beverage business this year. So if that's -- obviously is kind of driving maybe some of the caution as we think about 2019 from an operating standpoint. Why you're sort of managing to get into that long-term target?

是的，我想只是為了跟進這一點，只是想在前瞻性評論方面澄清一下，因為鮑勃，你提到了 CSD 的價格彈性壓力。顯然，您知道百事可樂今年在飲料業務上進行了大量投資。因此，如果這顯然是一種推動因素，那麼我們從運營角度考慮 2019 年時可能會更加謹慎。為什麼你能設法實現這個長期目標？

Yes, let me give some stats on that, right? So as one of the offsets but not the only offset to this significant inflation that the industry has faced, we've all taken pricing. And I think it's -- the good news, it's a very rational industry. When you take a look at the final quarter of 2018, for example, the category pricing was up 5.6%. Volume was down 4%. So that's the elasticity impact of the price that you see in the category. For KDP, in the fourth quarter, our pricing was up 5.9%. These are all in IRI, by the way. But what's interesting is, our volume was down 2.2%, so the elasticity impact of our pricing actions is lower, it's more muted than you'd see for the industry in total. And that speaks to the quality of the brand marketing and the innovation pipeline, which means consumers are effectively willing to pay more for some of our brands as a result of that -- of all the innovation in the market behind it. So that's why we say, we have to be really balanced as management to make sure that we're offsetting inflation with pricing and productivity. But we're also on the other side of the equation, investing in our brand to continue to drive growth. And we're talking forward-looking but -- all you have to do is look at the last quarter for evidence of it working.

是的，讓我提供一些統計數據，對嗎？因此，作為該行業面臨的嚴重通脹的抵消之一，但不是唯一的抵消，我們都採取了定價。我認為這是一個好消息，這是一個非常理性的行業。例如，當你查看 2018 年最後一個季度時，會發現該類別的定價上漲了 5.6%。成交量下降 4%。這就是您在該類別中看到的價格彈性影響。對於 KDP，第四季度我們的定價上漲了 5.9%。順便說一句，這些都在 IRI 中。但有趣的是，我們的銷量下降了 2.2%，因此我們定價行為的彈性影響較低，比整個行業的影響要小。這說明了品牌營銷和創新渠道的質量，這意味著消費者實際上願意為我們的一些品牌支付更高的價格，因為其背後的市場的所有創新。這就是為什麼我們說，作為管理層，我們必須真正保持平衡，以確保我們通過定價和生產率來抵消通貨膨脹。但我們也站在等式的另一邊，投資我們的品牌以繼續推動增長。我們談論的是前瞻性的，但是——你所要做的就是看看上個季度，尋找它有效的證據。

Your next question comes from the line of Sean King of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的肖恩·金。

Can you expand on any benefits from green coffee coming down? Is that yet to come? Or is that sort of being absorbed in the pricing investments in K-Cups now?

您能否詳細介紹一下生咖啡下降帶來的任何好處？那還未來嗎？或者說現在K-Cups 的定價投資已經被吸收了？

Sure. Obviously, we do have certain coverage positions. Actually, not only in coffee but across our commodities that impacts both the categories. And on the base of that, that we have a great visibility in terms of our cost structure in line with the price structure at the same time. That is, through that, coffee beans have been in the declining mode 18 to 24 months, and we take all the opportunities on the base of the positions that we do have. And all the pluses or minuses have been configured and included in our 2019 guidance.

當然。顯然，我們確實有一定的覆蓋位置。事實上，不僅在咖啡方面，而且在我們的所有商品中，這都會影響這兩個類別。在此基礎上，我們的成本結構與價格結構同時具有良好的可見性。也就是說，咖啡豆在18至24個月內一直處於下降狀態，我們在現有頭寸的基礎上抓住了所有機會。所有優點或缺點均已配置並包含在我們的 2019 年指南中。

Yes, and the other thing just to build on that, Sean, is compared to -- what I would say traditional coffee company, the percentage that coffee represents in the total cost of goods sold in a Keurig system is significantly lower than you would see for somebody who is producing traditional roasting ground because there's a lot of value added that comes in the single-serve format and the delivery of that. So it has a benefit or negative, if it were to go the other direction. We're well covered, so it never is a short-term impact for us. We like to be able to plan going forward, so we have good visibility for the year. But any movement -- as you think about coffee in the future, any movement up or down is less of a direct impact on our P&L than it is for all -- sort of a lower value-added coffee scenario than K-Cups.

是的，肖恩，在此基礎上的另一件事與我所說的傳統咖啡公司相比，咖啡在 Keurig 系統中銷售的商品總成本中所佔的百分比明顯低於您所看到的對於生產傳統烘焙場的人來說，因為單份形式及其交付帶來了很多附加值。因此，如果朝另一個方向發展，它既有好處也有壞處。我們有很好的保障，所以這對我們來說絕不會產生短期影響。我們希望能夠規劃未來，因此我們對這一年有良好的了解。但任何變動——當你考慮未來的咖啡時，任何上漲或下跌對我們損益的直接影響都小於對所有人的影響——有點比 K-Cups 的咖啡附加值更低的情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Grundy of Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Bob, I apologize if I missed this, but I want -- from a quantitative perspective, all the color on the Keurig side is very, very helpful, but specifically, part of the long-term guidance beginning in 2019 was that the Keurig side of the business was going to get back to 2% to 3% revenue growth. Are you still confident in that? Maybe you could touch a little bit on that. And then touch upon, Bob, the composition of pricing and volume. I think the hope was that the price investment was going to kind of tail off after this year and stabilize. Are you comfortable with where pricing is? Should we still expect negative pricing as well? So maybe you could talk a little bit about the composition as well.

鮑勃，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但我想——從定量的角度來看，Keurig 方面的所有顏色都非常非常有幫助，但具體來說，從 2019 年開始的長期指導的一部分是 Keurig 方面的業務將恢復 2% 至 3% 的收入增長。對此你還有信心嗎？也許你可以稍微談一下這一點。鮑勃，然後談談定價和數量的構成。我認為希望價格投資在今年之後會有所減少並趨於穩定。您對定價感到滿意嗎？我們還應該期待負定價嗎？所以也許你也可以談談構圖。

Your -- it's a great question, thank you. You're seeing it -- over the past couple of years, what you're seeing is, we made it -- we made that decision to invest in pricing in a significant way. We did it for 2 reasons: to get all of our partners -- unlicensed players into the system and to extend the agreements with our partners, which has been successful. And also, it was the single biggest barrier to consumer adoption of the system. So we were able to get 2 consumer and partner benefits by doing that, but obviously, we needed to have protection on that by visibility and to productivity, which, from my earlier comment, the margin expansion suggests that we have that well under control. The way we sit now -- let me talk about pricing for a moment. If you look at the last 3 quarters of 2018, the average KDP manufactured pod retailed for $0.53. So it's been -- relatively stable over that last time -- over the last 3 quarters. It breaks out into tiers that are exactly what you'd expect: premium at $0.68, mainstream at $0.49. That's actually a really important metric, so mainstream is just under $0.50, and private label that we manufacture is $0.33. And all of those were -- are within those thresholds that we talked to you guys about from a consumer standpoint, below $0.50, almost every American says no longer expensive. At $0.30, most say it's a bargain. So we're right into that structure that we thought about. And you're also seeing this pattern of volume doing really well, accelerating and pricing change moderating. So you're going to -- we're going to continue to see some negative pricing. But as that moderates and as volume increases, to get to the very first part of your question, is yes, we're comfortable with the way that we talked about the revenue growth of Keurig going forward. And it's all falling into line, really, exactly on plan.

你的——這是一個很好的問題，謝謝。你已經看到了——在過去的幾年裡，你看到的是，我們做到了——我們做出了對定價進行重大投資的決定。我們這樣做有兩個原因：讓我們所有的合作夥伴——未經許可的玩家進入系統，並延長與我們合作夥伴的協議，這已經取得了成功。而且，這也是消費者採用該系統的最大障礙。因此，通過這樣做，我們能夠為消費者和合作夥伴帶來兩項好處，但顯然，我們需要通過可見性和生產力來保護這一點，從我之前的評論來看，利潤率的擴張表明我們已經很好地控制了這一點。我們現在的方式——讓我談談定價。如果你看看 2018 年最後 3 個季度，KDP 製造的煙彈平均零售價為 0.53 美元。因此，在過去的三個季度中，與上次相比，情況相對穩定。它按照您的預期分為不同的等級：高級版為 0.68 美元，主流版為 0.49 美元。這實際上是一個非常重要的指標，因此主流產品的價格略低於 0.50 美元，而我們生產的自有品牌價格為 0.33 美元。所有這些都在我們從消費者角度與你們討論的閾值之內，低於 0.50 美元，幾乎每個美國人都說不再昂貴。價格為 0.30 美元，大多數人都說很便宜。所以我們就進入了我們所考慮的結構。而且你還看到這種成交量模式表現非常好，加速增長，而價格變化放緩。因此，我們將繼續看到一些負定價。但隨著這種情況的緩和和數量的增加，回到你問題的第一部分，是的，我們對我們談論 Keurig 未來收入增長的方式感到滿意。一切都在按計劃進行，真的，完全按照計劃進行。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell of SunTrust.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Bill Chappell。

It's actually Grant on for Bill. Just a quick question on the Dr Pepper side. As you guys have done a little bit more visibility into that business now, maybe looked at some more cost-cutting initiatives kind of beyond just the synergy realization, have you found more opportunity here going forward to maybe bring some more structure to that system? And kind of following on that, Ozan, is there a bigger opportunity on working capital from that business than maybe they've seen in the past?

這實際上是格蘭特為比爾做的。佩珀博士這邊有一個簡單的問題。由於你們現在對該業務有了更多的了解，也許除了實現協同效應之外，還考慮了一些更多的成本削減舉措，你們是否發現了更多的機會，可以為該系統帶來更多的結構？接下來，Ozan，從該業務中獲得營運資金的機會是否比他們過去看到的更大？

Yes, sure, let me do the first part now. I'll ask Ozan to do the working capital part of that question. From our standpoint is, we've got the base Keurig productivity programs and the ones that we're investing in significantly, like the new plant in Spartanburg and the whole reinvention of our pod supply. We have the synergies that we talked about at length, and the good news is we're very much on track for that. And then we always look at what are opportunities to drive productivity above and beyond that. And we see lots of opportunities in that space. And again, with evidence of that, evidence of the fact that we've been able to find more productivity is the fact that we've been able to stay right on track with the guidance that we gave a year ago, despite a significant uptick in inflation, while, at the same time, upping the investment in our brand. That tells you that we've been able to find more efficiency within the system, that we've been able to deliver a really nice balanced forecast for 2019 that delivers the commitments while still investing in the long-term health of the business. So Ozan, you want to talk about the working capital side?

是的，當然，現在讓我做第一部分。我將請奧贊回答該問題的營運資金部分。從我們的角度來看，我們已經有了基本的 Keurig 生產力計劃以及我們正在大力投資的計劃，例如斯巴達堡的新工廠以及我們吊艙供應的整體重塑。我們擁有我們詳細討論過的協同效應，好消息是我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。然後我們總是尋找哪些機會可以提高生產力並超越這一目標。我們在這個領域看到了很多機會。再次，有證據表明，我們能夠找到更高生產力的事實是，儘管生產力顯著上升，但我們仍然能夠按照一年前給出的指導保持正確的軌道。通貨膨脹，同時增加對我們品牌的投資。這告訴您，我們已經能夠在系統內找到更高的效率，我們已經能夠為 2019 年提供非常平衡的預測，在履行承諾的同時仍然投資於業務的長期健康發展。Ozan，您想談談營運資金方面嗎？

Sure, and as we shared with you -- everybody, we had long-term guidance between 2019 and 2021 in terms of the working capital delivery from an incremental perspective and the improvements. And once we had a greater visibility into the legacy DPS business, we are very happy to share that all the findings were either on the forecast that we anticipated or even better. That's why it increases our confidence in terms of delivering our deleveraging commitments that we put out there more than 12 months ago. We are quite pleased with the performance of the working capital coming along, and you will see in 2019 and beyond when we report quarter in, quarter out improvement as well on our balance sheet.

當然，正如我們與大家分享的那樣，我們在 2019 年至 2021 年期間從增量角度提供了營運資金交付和改進方面的長期指導。一旦我們對遺留的 DPS 業務有了更深入的了解，我們就非常高興地告訴大家，所有的結果要么符合我們的預期，要么甚至更好。這就是為什麼它增強了我們履行 12 個多月前做出的去槓桿化承諾的信心。我們對營運資金的表現非常滿意，當我們在 2019 年及以後報告我們的資產負債表上每季度的改善情況時，您將會看到。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Sharma of BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Amit Sharma。

Two questions. Bob and Ozan, can you just provide us a little bit update on the new capacity for K-Cups? How far along are we? And once it is up and running, what does it do to your cost structure? And the second one, Bob, and that's something that we're hearing today as well. I mean, at least if you look at 2019 EPS growth, bulk of that is coming from cost synergies from the merger and interest savings and in the context of what happened to the packaged food space last week. The questions are, like, once those factors start to moderate, do we have enough visibility that the base business will be able to continue to grow at this level of EPS growth once you [lap] all these benefits?

兩個問題。Bob 和 Ozan，您能為我們提供有關 K-Cups 新容量的一些最新信息嗎？我們還有多遠？一旦啟動並運行，它會對您的成本結構產生什麼影響？第二個是鮑勃，這也是我們今天聽到的。我的意思是，至少如果你看看 2019 年每股收益的增長，你會發現其中大部分來自合併和利息節省帶來的成本協同效應，以及上週包裝食品領域發生的情況。問題是，一旦這些因素開始減弱，我們是否有足夠的可見性，一旦你[享受]所有這些好處，基礎業務將能夠繼續以每股收益增長的水平增長？

Let me start with the last part first. And the last part is, I think, in this environment, the fact that we're able to deliver 15% to 17% EPS growth while investing in our business, and the fact that we're growing across every single segment, growing share, gives us a ton of confidence in the sustainability and the health of this business. In terms of visibility, we've given visibility, at the time of the merger announcement, for 3-plus years, and we're only, what, 9 months into -- a little less than 9 months since we've closed on the business, 6 months from a financial reporting perspective. So we're in the really early days of that. We've got the visibility that we've communicated. And again, the fact that we're here today saying, despite all these changes in the environment, we're right on track since we have the flexibility to navigate to the right answer. And I'll -- we'll worry about what happens after 3 years from now when we get closer to it because we have no idea what the environment is, but the fact that we have that kind of visibility, I think, puts us in good position versus most of the world. With regard to the pod supply chain, all of the savings, all of the pricing and everything else is all built into the long-term targets that we've given you. So start pulling those all apart actually isn't really constructive. That's how we're able to do what we're able to do, as I said before. A lot of the concerns about brewer sales and pricing. My counter to that is volume up and accelerating, household penetration growing and very healthy, consumers returning brewers at a lower rate and holding onto them longer because they like them. And margins for Coffee Systems up almost 300 bps for the year. We get there by the combination of all of the things we talked about. So it's all contemplate, it's all built into it. Where are we on builds? One of the big projects within our pod supply chain reinvention, Spartanburg, building's under construction, lines have been tested at the manufacturer. They're ready to be installed once the building is done. Things are moving along nicely on that, and it's all part of the long-term plan that we put out there before.

讓我先從最後一部分開始。我認為最後一部分是，在這種環境下，我們能夠在投資業務的同時實現 15% 至 17% 的每股收益增長，而且我們在每個細分市場都在增長，份額不斷增長，讓我們對這項業務的可持續性和健康發展充滿信心。就可見性而言，在宣布合併時，我們已經提供了三年多的可見性，而我們現在才 9 個月——距離我們關閉合併還不到 9 個月。從財務報告的角度來看，該業務為 6 個月。所以我們還處於早期階段。我們已經獲得了我們所傳達的可見性。再說一次，我們今天在這裡說的是，儘管環境發生了所有這些變化，但我們正走在正軌上，因為我們可以靈活地找到正確的答案。我會——我們會擔心三年後當我們更接近它時會發生什麼，因為我們不知道環境是什麼，但我認為，我們擁有這種可見性的事實讓我們與世界上大多數國家相比處於有利地位。關於吊艙供應鏈，所有節省、所有定價和其他一切都已納入我們為您提供的長期目標中。因此，開始將這些全部分開實際上並不是真正有建設性的。正如我之前所說，這就是我們能夠做我們能夠做的事情的方式。很多關於啤酒商銷售和定價的擔憂。我的反對意見是產量的增加和加速，家庭滲透率的增長並且非常健康，消費者以較低的速度返回啤酒廠並保留更長時間，因為他們喜歡它們。今年咖啡系統的利潤率增長了近 300 個基點。我們通過結合我們所討論的所有事情來實現這一目標。所以這一切都是沉思的，都是內置於其中的。我們的構建進展到哪一步了？我們吊艙供應鏈重塑中的大型項目之一，正在建設中的斯巴達堡，生產線已在製造商處進行了測試。建築完工後，它們就可以安裝了。事情進展順利，這都是我們之前製定的長期計劃的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Laurent Grandet of Guggenheim Securities.

你的下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的洛朗·格蘭台。

This is Clay Crumbliss on for Laurent. Bob, if we can just go back to coffee real fast. So I think in the scanner data, we continue to see that you're losing share to private label, and you touched on the pricing, which is really helpful, but could you talk about the interaction of your branded portfolio with private label? And then how you sort of reconcile that performance with the fact that you're the third party manufacturer for the majority of the private label offerings? And then related to that, just how are you looking at the composition of your current branded coffee portfolio, especially given sort of the recent press that a major brand could be on the block? And even more broadly than that, how are you thinking about potential opportunistic M&A across the portfolio, given the constrained balance sheet that doesn't have to just be coffee, I mean, it could be sparkling water, for example? So I know there's a lot there, but anything you could offer would be helpful.

這是勞倫特的克萊·克拉姆布利斯。鮑勃，如果我們能盡快回去喝咖啡就好了。因此，我認為在掃描儀數據中，我們繼續看到您正在失去自有品牌的份額，並且您談到了定價，這確實很有幫助，但是您能談談您的品牌組合與自有品牌的相互作用嗎？那麼，您如何將這種表現與您是大多數自有品牌產品的第三方製造商這一事實相協調呢？與此相關的是，您如何看待當前品牌咖啡產品組合的構成，特別是考慮到最近的媒體報導稱，一個主要品牌可能會被出售？更廣泛地說，您如何考慮整個投資組合中潛在的機會主義併購，因為資產負債表受到限制，而不僅僅是咖啡，我的意思是，例如，它可能是蘇打水？所以我知道那裡有很多東西，但你能提供的任何東西都會有幫助。

Yes, I'll start, you may have to remind me on a couple of weak points here. I mean, I'm not sure if I got them all down. I think -- let me just clarify some things on share because there's a lot of confusion on that. First of all, we produce the majority of private label pods that are out there. As I said before, 82% of the dollar in pods going through the Keurig system are manufactured by us, and that's up a point versus a year ago. We said that's one of the 4 metrics that we really track very carefully here. Within that 82%, there's a mixture of brands that we own, partner brands that you would recognize as well as some private label brands. The differential in margin between each of those has been narrowed greatly. So we're much more -- we're fairly indifferent to mix within that. All we care about is, do we manufacture the pod? And is household penetration growing, which means that pod buying is going to grow. So why are we so -- sitting here so bullish today? The number of households that take on the Keurig system in the past year, that use it regularly, is up to 28 million, which is a 7% growth in household penetration, up to 22%. Pod volumes in IRI are plus-10%, and our KDP manufactured share pod is up to 82%, up a point. So those are all the things that really matter in the system, and that's why the profitability of our Coffee Systems is so robust in 2018. The mix within there's much less of a concern. And again, I think there's this confusion where people equate private label with unlicensed. We do the majority of private label, and the margin that we achieve on that is very respectable. The last thing I would say is our owned and licensed portfolio, so those brands that we are actually not only the manufacturer but also the brand owner, Green Mountain, Donut Shop as an example. If you go back, they once had 100 share of the system. So as brands have been added to the system, and it has grown, by definition, our share of owned and licensed pods has declined. And we're at a point now where, in the latest 4 weeks, at the end of the year at 2018, we had 24 share, down about 1.5 versus a year ago. That's all projected in the numbers that we've talked about and we look at going forward, and we see that as all part of the natural sort of evolution of the system, as it continues to grow, the single biggest benefit for consumers is brand choice. We want every coffee brand to be in the system, and we want to be the manufacturers of those pods. That's the way we think about it strategically. And again, that's why we're so bullish on the Coffee Systems, and it's delivery.

是的，我要開始了，你可能需要提醒我這裡的幾個弱點。我的意思是，我不確定我是否把它們都記下來了。我想——讓我澄清一些分享的事情，因為這方面有很多困惑。首先，我們生產大部分自有品牌的煙彈。正如我之前所說，通過 Keurig 系統的豆莢中 82% 的美元是由我們製造的，這比一年前增加了一個百分點。我們說過這是我們在這裡非常仔細跟踪的 4 個指標之一。在這 82% 中，混合了我們擁有的品牌、您認可的合作夥伴品牌以及一些自有品牌。兩者之間的差距已大大縮小。所以我們還有更多——我們對混合其中相當漠不關心。我們關心的是，我們是否生產吊艙？家庭滲透率正在增長，這意味著豆莢購買量將會增長。那麼，為什麼我們今天坐在這裡如此樂觀呢？去年，經常使用 Keurig 系統的家庭數量高達 2800 萬，家庭普及率增長了 7%，達到 22%。IRI 的 Pod 數量增加了 10%，而我們 KDP 製造的 Pod 份額高達 82%，上升了一個百分點。因此，這些都是系統中真正重要的事情，這就是我們咖啡系統的盈利能力在 2018 年如此強勁的原因。裡面的混合就不用那麼擔心了。再說一次，我認為人們將自有品牌與未經許可等同起來存在這種混亂。我們生產大部分自有品牌產品，我們由此獲得的利潤非常可觀。最後我要說的是我們擁有和授權的產品組合，所以我們實際上不僅是製造商，也是品牌所有者，例如綠山、甜甜圈店。如果你回去的話，他們曾經擁有 100 個系統份額。因此，隨著品牌被添加到系統中，並且根據定義它不斷增長，我們擁有和許可的 Pod 的份額已經下降。現在，在 2018 年年底的最後 4 週內，我們的份額為 24，比一年前下降了約 1.5。這一切都在我們討論過的數字中進行了預測，我們展望了未來，我們看到，作為系統自然進化的一部分，隨著它的不斷增長，對消費者來說最大的好處是品牌選擇。我們希望每個咖啡品牌都進入系統，並且我們希望成為這些咖啡包的製造商。這就是我們戰略性思考的方式。再說一次，這就是我們如此看好咖啡系統及其配送的原因。

On the M&A side.

在併購方面。

M&A side, we don't talk about M&A on any side. I would tell you, on the cold beverage side, there's still a significant amount of white space in our portfolio. We've add -- we've filled in that whitespace through a combination of brands we've acquired like Core. New partnerships that we've entered into like evian and Peet's and other things that we're contemplating in the future, including organic development of brands on our own or segments on our own. But the fact that we have available whitespace in the cold side of the portfolio is net a real positive for the future of this business because it tells you we have many avenues for growth that haven't been pursued yet.

併購方面，我們不談論任何方面的併購。我想告訴你，在冷飲方面，我們的產品組合中仍然存在大量空白。我們補充說，我們通過收購 Core 等品牌的組合來填補這一空白。我們已經建立了新的合作夥伴關係，例如依雲（evian）和皮特（Peet's），以及我們未來正在考慮的其他事情，包括我們自己的品牌或我們自己的細分市場的有機發展。但事實上，我們在投資組合的冷端擁有可用的空白，這對這項業務的未來來說是一個真正的積極因素，因為它告訴你我們還有許多尚未實現的增長途徑。

And you also mentioned that our balance sheet is tight due to our leverage or the multiple, and this can be limiting factor. In fact, it's the opposite, as we have shown and proven, the Core acquisition. We always more than welcome to use our share in order to buy right targets for us if they do exist as well. So there's not any constraint in terms of the balance sheet, and we're still 100% committed to our deleveraging commitment at the same time.

您還提到，由於我們的槓桿或倍數，我們的資產負債表很緊張，這可能是限制因素。事實上，正如我們已經展示和證明的那樣，Core 收購的情況恰恰相反。我們始終非常歡迎使用我們的份額來為我們購買合適的目標（如果它們確實存在）。所以資產負債表方面不存在任何限制，同時我們仍然100%致力於去槓桿承諾。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Grom of JP Morgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的彼得·格羅姆。

So I just wanted to kind of follow up on your last comment and kind of get your thoughts on now that brand portfolio. So maybe could you provide a little bit more color on how evian is performing versus your expectations? And then any commentary you'd be willing to offer on the pipeline for your Allied Brands? And then aside from organic beverages, are there any particular categories you're looking to become more involved in?

所以我只是想跟進您最後的評論，並了解您對品牌組合的想法。那麼，您能否提供更多關於依雲的表現與您的期望相比的信息？那麼您願意對您的聯盟品牌的管道提供任何評論嗎？那麼除了有機飲料之外，您還希望更多地涉足哪些特定類別嗎？

Yes, let me just do a quick refresher just for everybody on sort of -- the Allied Brand portfolio, as we sit here today, has been transformed versus where we were sitting a year ago. And I think -- a year ago, there was lot of concern what was going to happen, and I'd say again, fast-forward to a year later, and you'd say, wow, we've got a really good, stable partner brands, and that provides a source of growth for us going forward. So the new brands we added were evian, Peet's and FORTO. The brands we acquired were Core and Big Red. The brands that left were FIJI and BODYARMOR. And the brands that continued on with us were Vita Coco, High Brew and Neuro. So we like that lineup, and we've got a lot of opportunity in front of us to really now drive evian, Peet's and FORTO, which are new brand. It's just getting started in this quarter. There were minimal sales of those businesses in the fourth quarter of last year. That's now ramping up in the first quarter and will accelerate throughout the year as we kick up distribution. And that's exactly what we track as a management team, is are we given the distribution, a build that we committed to, to our partners? Are we getting the pricing and the merchandising performance? So all of that is nicely on track. Again, having said all that, you've got to remember that when you take out 2 brands like FIJI and BODYARMOR, and you add these new ones, which are in the emerging stages, we took quite a hit in the fourth quarter and in the beginning part of this year on revenue. Because those brands were gone, and the new ones weren't in yet. And that's now more of a tailwind for us going forward because as we build it, we're able to get the revenue and profit growth over those businesses that we had absorbed. But I repeat myself, as I said a couple of things, despite that hit, we didn't miss a beat in terms of profit delivery or our commitment to our algorithm. I think we put ourselves in a really nice position to grow. So where are we in the future on Allied Brands? We've taken a very disciplined approach to this, something that we talked about before. There's a lot of interest in brand owners to work with us and through our system. As we've all talked about, and we now realize first hand, distribution -- DSP distribution into small outlets in cold cases in particular is a scarce resource. And we're one of the partners that's a really good opportunity for them, given that we have so much whitespace, but we've been really disciplined about the terms of how we will work with somebody. And it either has to be a situation where if we can't own the brand in the future, like evian, then we need a really rock solid, long-term, equity-like agreement, and by the way, the other side wants that as well. But if it's a brand that we can own, we want to have an equity stake in that up front, and we want to have a path to ownership, which means, for the most part, we've pre-negotiated the terms of that exit in the future. What we won't do is just quickly jump into a distribution agreement, make the brand successful and then have a negotiation with them about what the value of that brand is. That's not something that we're repeating. So short summary on that one is, we're really bullish about the brands we have in our portfolio, and there's all upside and a lot of work to do to get that distribution. Lots of interest, but also it's matched with a lot of discipline on our part to make sure that we're entering into this in the right way.

是的，讓我為大家快速回顧一下——今天我們坐在這裡的聯合品牌產品組合與一年前相比已經發生了轉變。我認為，一年前，人們對將要發生的事情有很多擔憂，我會再說一遍，快進到一年後，你會說，哇，我們有一個非常好的、穩定的合作夥伴品牌，這為我們未來的增長提供了源泉。所以我們添加的新品牌是 evian、Peet's 和 FORTO。我們收購的品牌是Core和Big Red。離開的品牌是 FIJI 和 BODYARMOR。繼續與我們合作的品牌有 Vita Coco、High Brew 和 Neuro。所以我們喜歡這個陣容，而且我們現在有很多機會真正駕駛依雲、Peet's 和 FORTO，這些都是新品牌。這個季度才剛剛開始。去年第四季度這些業務的銷售額微乎其微。現在，這一數字在第一季度有所增加，並且隨著我們加大分銷力度，這一數字將在全年加速。這正是我們作為管理團隊所追踪的，是我們是否向我們的合作夥伴提供了分配、我們承諾的構建？我們是否了解定價和銷售業績？所以所有這一切都很好地步入正軌。再說一次，話雖如此，你必須記住，當你拿出 FIJI 和 BODYARMOR 這樣的 2 個品牌，並添加這些處於新興階段的新品牌時，我們在第四季度和今年年初的收入。因為那些品牌已經消失了，而新的品牌還沒有出現。現在，這對我們前進來說更像是一種順風，因為當我們建立它時，我們能夠比我們吸收的那些業務獲得收入和利潤的增長。但我重複一遍，正如我所說的幾件事，儘管受到了打擊，我們在利潤交付或對算法的承諾方面並沒有錯過任何一個節拍。我認為我們把自己置於一個非常有利的成長位置。那麼，Allied Brands 的未來在哪裡？我們對此採取了非常嚴格的方法，這也是我們之前討論過的。品牌所有者非常有興趣與我們合作並通過我們的系統進行合作。正如我們都討論過的那樣，而且我們現在已經親身體會到，分發——特別是在冷情況下向小型銷售點分發 DSP 是一種稀缺資源。我們是合作夥伴之一，這對他們來說是一個非常好的機會，因為我們有這麼多的空白，但我們在如何與某人合作的條款上一直非常嚴格。要么是這樣一種情況，如果我們將來不能像依雲一樣擁有這個品牌，那麼我們需要一份真正堅如磐石的、長期的、類似股權的協議，順便說一句，另一方想要那也是如此。但如果這是一個我們可以擁有的品牌，我們希望預先擁有該品牌的股權，並且我們希望擁有一條所有權之路，這意味著，在很大程度上，我們已經預先協商了該品牌的條款將來退出。我們不會做的只是快速簽訂分銷協議，讓品牌取得成功，然後與他們就該品牌的價值進行談判。這不是我們要重複的事情。對此的簡短總結是，我們非常看好我們投資組合中的品牌，並且有所有的好處和大量的工作要做才能獲得這種分佈。我們充滿興趣，但也與我們的大量紀律相匹配，以確保我們以正確的方式進入這一領域。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

This is Brendan Metrano on for Robert. I had a quick question on marketing spend. So the third quarter, you guys had called out that the timing of the marketing spend was a benefit to operating profit performance. And indicated that it would be put towards investment, I guess, for the holiday season. And then -- so, again, we're kind of calling out to marketing as a benefit to the fourth quarter. And so I was wondering, are you spending the right level? What are the puts and takes on that?

我是羅伯特的布倫丹·梅特拉諾。我有一個關於營銷支出的快速問題。因此，第三季度，你們指出營銷支出的時機有利於營業利潤表現。並表示，我猜，它將用於假期期間的投資。然後，我們再次呼籲營銷為第四季度帶來好處。所以我想知道，你的消費水平合適嗎？對此有何看法？

Let me clarify that because you'll get a chance to go through the K or [whatever], but the only comment we made on marketing spend was on the Beverage Concentrate business, not in the other sections of the business. And we're investing heavily in both the Keurig system as well as the cold system. And then the other thing you have to -- and this is a little more nuanced, but it's -- really is important to understand. When you put 2 companies together, one of the synergies that you create is more purchasing power on media, and we've got a significant increase in scale and capabilities on our media side now. And what that means is that you're able to get the same reach and quality at a lower cost. So in that situation, you can actually spend the same dollars and have a fairly significant increase in the effective reach of those dollars because you bought that media at a better price because of your consolidation. So there's a lot of that all working together but what you need to take away from this is we're not using marketing as a source of profitability at all, as tempting as that would have been, given the world of inflation right now, and in fact, are doing the opposite and investing more behind our total business.

讓我澄清一下，因為您將有機會了解 K 或 [無論如何]，但我們對營銷支出的唯一評論是針對濃縮飲料業務，而不是業務的其他部分。我們對 Keurig 系統和冷系統進行了大量投資。然後你必須了解的另一件事——這有點微妙，但理解確實很重要。當你將兩家公司合併在一起時，你創造的協同效應之一就是媒體購買力的增強，而我們現在媒體方面的規模和能力都得到了顯著提高。這意味著您能夠以更低的成本獲得相同的覆蓋範圍和質量。因此，在這種情況下，您實際上可以花費相同的美元，並在這些美元的有效覆蓋範圍上獲得相當顯著的增加，因為您由於合併而以更好的價格購買了該媒體。因此，有很多方面都在共同努力，但你需要從中得到的是，我們根本沒有將營銷作為盈利來源，考慮到目前的通貨膨脹世界，這本來是很誘人的，並且事實上，我們正​​在做相反的事情，並在我們的整體業務上投入更多資金。

Your next question comes from the line of Damian Witkowski of G. Research.

您的下一個問題來自 G. Research 的 Damian Witkowski。

Bob, your comments on the Keurig machines and household penetration make a lot of sense. But I'm just curious, do you actually have enough information to precisely know whether a new Keurig machine is a replacement machine versus a new household?

鮑勃，您對 Keurig 機器和家庭普及率的評論很有道理。但我只是很好奇，您是否真的有足夠的信息來準確了解新的 Keurig 機器是替代機器還是新家庭機器？

We do. It's a great question. I mean, qualitative data below that in terms of how are they feeling about their brewer, how long have they had it, et cetera, et cetera. We also know when somebody drops out of the system, why they dropped out of the system. We also see it -- so that's an ongoing data source that is proprietary to us that we have that's been consistent for years, so we're able to test that backwards against the history to make sure that it's accurate, and it's very good. In addition to that, we also have metrics on return rates, which we get from our customers and also warranty claims. And that -- those are really hard numbers. And we've seen a significant improvement in those numbers. I'll give you an example. If somebody puts a warranty claim in as a return, that actually boosts brewer sales.

我們的確是。這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，下面的定性數據涉及他們對啤酒商的感覺如何，他們喝了多久，等等。我們還知道某人何時退出系統以及他們退出系統的原因。我們也看到了它——所以這是我們專有的持續數據源，多年來一直保持一致，因此我們能夠根據歷史進行向後測試，以確保它是準確的，而且非常好。除此之外，我們還有從客戶那裡獲得的退貨率指標以及保修索賠。這些都是非常硬的數字。我們已經看到這些數字有了顯著改善。我給你舉個例子。如果有人提出保修索賠作為退貨，這實際上會促進啤酒商的銷售。

So if you send people back out there to rebuy a brewer that they turned in for warranty, perversely, that increases the revenue of brewers. I would argue that's a terrible situation. So the fact that we're getting fewer warranty claims and fewer returns is a profit-positive to us. It also means happier, more satisfied consumers, but it also has a negative impact on revenue. And quite frankly, we don't care about that because there's no profit or loss impact resulting in that. So sorry for the long answer, but we really have a ton of data. The other thing that we haven't talked about, but I just want to remind everybody is, we have a household panel that's statistically significant, that's about 12,000 to 15,000 connected brewers out there. And we provide that data to our partners. So if you're in the Keurig system, you get exclusive access to this. And it literally captures point of consumption data, meaning when somebody brews a cup in this panel, we know what they brewed, what brand, what size, which strength, and we feed that live to our partners, and you get a lot of data in terms of the quality of household penetration around that. So we feel really good about those numbers. We like to give -- we want to give them to you on an annual basis. You could get a proxy for this by looking at household penetration of pods through IRI. The caution on that is, it's volatile for no good reason. But over time, it's a good proxy, but that's why we're going to give you household penetration.

因此，如果你讓人們回去重新購買他們上交保修的啤酒廠，反常的是，這會增加啤酒廠的收入。我認為這是一個可怕的情況。因此，我們收到的保修索賠和退貨數量減少這一事實對我們來說是有利的。這也意味著消費者更快樂、更滿意，但它也會對收入產生負面影響。坦率地說，我們並不關心這一點，因為這不會對利潤或損失產生影響。很抱歉回答這麼長，但我們確實有大量數據。我們還沒有談論的另一件事，但我只是想提醒大家，我們有一個具有統計意義的家庭小組，大約有 12,000 到 15,000 家聯網釀酒商。我們將這些數據提供給我們的合作夥伴。因此，如果您在 Keurig 系統中，您將獲得對此的獨占訪問權限。它確實捕獲了消費點數據，這意味著當有人在這個面板中沖泡一杯咖啡時，我們知道他們沖泡了什麼，什麼品牌，什麼尺寸，什麼濃度，我們將這些數據實時提供給我們的合作夥伴，你會得到大量數據就家庭滲透率的質量而言。所以我們對這些數字感到非常滿意。我們喜歡給予——我們希望每年向您提供它們。您可以通過 IRI 查看 pod 的家庭滲透率來獲得這一點的代理。需要注意的是，它的波動性是沒有充分理由的。但隨著時間的推移，它會成為一個很好的代理，這就是為什麼我們要為您提供家庭滲透率。

Thanks, that's very helpful. And then could you comment at all about your pricing expectations for CSDs in 2019?

謝謝，這非常有幫助。那麼您能否評論一下您對 2019 年 CSD 的定價預期？

I can't forecast it. Like I said, it's a rational industry, and it's going to depend on inflation but the numbers that -- you can see it on a weekly basis through the syndicated data, as I said before, in the 13 weeks ending December, the category was up between 5% and 6%, which is pretty robust pricing in a CPG environment. So it's all going to depend on what inflation looks like going forward.

我無法預測。就像我說的，這是一個理性的行業，它將取決於通貨膨脹，但你可以通過聯合數據每週看到它，正如我之前所說，在截至 12 月的 13 週內，該類別是上漲 5% 至 6%，這在 CPG 環境中是相當穩健的定價。因此，這一切都取決於未來的通脹情況。

That was our final question for today. I will now return the call to Maria Sceppaguercio for any additional or closing comments.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。我現在將回電給 Maria Sceppaguercio，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thank you, thank you all for listening in today. As always, we are around. So if you have any follow-up questions, and you want to talk to us, just give us a call. Take care, have a good day, everyone.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家今天的收聽。一如既往，我們就在身邊。因此，如果您有任何後續問題，並且想與我們交談，請致電我們。保重，祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for participating in Keurig Dr Pepper's earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加 Keurig Dr Pepper 的收益電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。