Kadant Inc (KAI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 Kadant earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Kadant 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將有問答環節。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael McKenney, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、執行副總裁兼財務長 Michael McKenney。請繼續。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Kadant fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. With me on the call today is Jeff Powell, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早安。歡迎參加 Kadant 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長傑夫鮑威爾。

Before we begin, let me read our safe Harbor statement. Various remarks that we may make today about Kadant's future plans and expectations, financial and operating results, and prospects are forward-looking statements for purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those outlined at the beginning of our slide presentation and those discussed under the heading, Risk Factors, in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 30, 2023, and subsequent filing for the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，請允許我宣讀我們的安全港聲明。我們今天可能對凱登的未來計劃和期望、財務和營運結果以及前景做出的各種評論均為 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款所指的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果由於各種重要因素而與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異，包括幻燈片演示開頭概述的因素以及在“風險因素”標題下討論的因素，在我們截至 2023 年 12 月 30 日的財政年度的 10-K 表中，以及隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

In addition, any forward-looking statements we make during this webcast represent our views and estimates only as of today. While we may elect to update our forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our views or estimates change.

此外，我們在本次網路廣播中所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今天的觀點和估計。雖然我們可能選擇在未來某個時間點更新我們的前瞻性陳述，但我們明確表示不承擔任何這樣做的義務，即使我們的觀點或估計發生變化。

During this webcast, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAPfinancial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in our fourth quarter and full-year earnings press release and the slides presented on the webcast and discussed in the conference call, which are available on the Investors section of our website at kadant.com.

在本次網路廣播中，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計準則指標並非依照公認會計原則編製。非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表包含在我們的第四季度和全年收益新聞稿以及網路直播和電話會議中討論的幻燈片中，這些內容可在我們網站 kadant.com 的「投資者」部分找到。

Finally, I wanted to note that when we refer to GAAP earnings per share or EPS and adjusted EPS on this call, we're referring to each of these measures as calculated on a diluted basis.

最後，我想指出的是，當我們在本次電話會議上提到 GAAP 每股盈餘或 EPS 和調整後 EPS 時，我們指的是按稀釋基礎計算的每個指標。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff Powell, who will give you an update on Kadan't business and future prospects. Following Jeff's remarks, I'll give an overview of our financial results for the quarter and the year. And we will then have a Q&A session. Jeff?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給傑夫鮑威爾，他將向您介紹 Kadant 的業務和未來前景的最新情況。在傑夫演講之後，我將概述本季和年度的財務表現。然後我們將進行問答環節。傑夫？

Thanks, Mike. Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning to review our fourth-quarter and full-year results and discuss our business outlook for 2025. I'm pleased to report the fourth quarter was a solid finish to a record-setting year for Kadant. Despite the continued economic headwinds in many regions, industrial activity in the fourth quarter was relatively stable both year-over-year and sequentially. We had another well-executed quarter which led to solid margin performance and strong cash flow in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，麥克。大家好。感謝您今天早上加入我們，回顧我們的第四季度和全年業績並討論我們對 2025 年的業務展望。我很高興地報告，第四季為凱登創紀錄的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。儘管許多地區經濟持續面臨逆風，但第四季的工業活動年比和季比均相對穩定。我們又度過了一個表現出色的季度，這使得第四季度的利潤率表現穩健，現金流強勁。

At the end of 2024, we were honored once again for our sustainability efforts and named by Newsweek magazine as one of America's most responsible companies. This marks the fifth consecutive year of being included on this list, and it's rewarding to be recognized for our efforts in this area.

2024 年底，我們再次因永續發展努力而獲得榮譽，並被《新聞週刊》評為美國最負責任的公司之一。這標誌著我們連續第五年被列入名單，我們在這一領域的努力得到認可，我們感到非常欣慰。

With that, I'd like to review our Q4 financial performance. Fourth quarter performance benefited from stable demand throughout the second half of the year and the acquisitions we completed in 2024 had revenue and bookings growth of 8% and 10%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was up 8% compared to the same period last year, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.3%. Solid execution by our operations teams around the world played an important role in delivering value to our customers and driving our operating performance in the fourth quarter. Our Q4 cash flow was strong at $52 million.

藉此，我想回顧一下我們第四季的財務表現。第四季的業績受惠於整個下半年的穩定需求，以及我們在 2024 年完成的收購，營收和預訂量分別成長了 8% 和 10%。調整後的 EBITDA 與去年同期相比成長了 8%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.3%。我們全球營運團隊的出色執行力在為客戶創造價值和推動第四季度營運績效方面發揮了重要作用。我們的第四季現金流強勁，達到 5,200 萬美元。

Overall, the fourth quarter financial performance contributed to record full-year financial results, which I will review next with slide 7. Stable demand and a strong backlog fueled record revenue performance of $1.05 billion in fiscal 2024 with aftermarket parts making up 66% of our total revenue. Adjusted EPS increased to a record $10.28, exceeding the prior record set last year at $10.04 per share. Our full-year adjusted EBITDA was a record $230 million and a record 21.8% of revenue.

總體而言，第四季度的財務表現為創紀錄的全年財務表現做出了貢獻，我將在下一張投影片 7 中回顧這一點。穩定的需求和強勁的積壓訂單推動了 2024 財年創紀錄的 10.5 億美元的收入表現，其中售後零件占我們總收入的 66%。調整後的每股收益增至創紀錄的 10.28 美元，超過了去年創下的每股 10.04 美元的紀錄。我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 2.3 億美元，佔營收的 21.8%。

Our strategic focus on improving our margin performance through internal initiatives, people development, and customer-focused innovations delivered results across a variety of metrics. Our workforce around the globe performed exceptionally well throughout a challenging year, and I am proud of our employees for the innovative work they have done and continue to do to serve our customers.

我們的策略重點是透過內部舉措、人才發展和以客戶為中心的創新來提高利潤率，並在各種指標上取得了成果。在充滿挑戰的一年裡，我們遍布全球的員工表現非常出色，我為我們的員工為服務客戶所做的創新工作以及他們將繼續做的工作感到自豪。

Next, I'd like to review our performance in our three operating segments. I'll begin with our flow control segment. Q4 revenue increased 8% to $95 million with strong performance in North America offsetting weaker performance in Europe. Aftermarket parts revenue was up 12% compared to the prior period and made up 71% of total revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was up 15% and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 170 basis points to 28.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.

接下來，我想回顧一下我們三個營運部門的表現。我將從流量控制部分開始。第四季營收成長 8% 至 9,500 萬美元，北美的強勁表現抵消了歐洲的疲軟表現。售後零件收入較上期成長12%，佔總收入的71%。與去年同期相比，第四季調整後 EBITDA 成長 15%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增加 170 個基點至 28.7%。

While bookings were up compared to the same period last year, softness in manufacturing sectors persisted in most regions, particularly during the second half of 2024. We believe the long-term market trends impacting industrial markets such as decarbonization, automation, and a focus on energy savings will continue to drive new opportunities for growth, though business activity continues to be influenced by geopolitical and microeconomic challenges around the globe.

儘管預訂量與去年同期相比有所上升，但大多數地區製造業依然疲軟，尤其是在 2024 年下半年。我們相信，影響工業市場的長期市場趨勢（例如脫碳、自動化和注重節能）將繼續推動新的成長機會，儘管商業活動繼續受到全球地緣政治和微觀經濟挑戰的影響。

Turning now to our industrial processing segment, our performance in the fourth quarter was strong despite slower activity in some of our end markets. Revenue increased 17% to $101 million compared to the same period last year led by contributions from our recent acquisition and capital shipments of our fiber processing equipment. Aftermarket parts revenue was up 24% and represented 67% of total revenue in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 150 basis points compared to the prior year largely due to lower capital equipment margins.

現在轉向我們的工業加工部門，儘管我們的一些終端市場活動放緩，但我們在第四季度的業績仍然強勁。與去年同期相比，營收成長了 17%，達到 1.01 億美元，這主要得益於我們最近的收購和纖維加工設備的資本出貨。售後零件營收成長24%，佔第四季總營收的67%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較前一年下降 150 個基點，主要原因是資本設備利潤率下降。

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect demand for our capital equipment to strengthen particularly in our wood processing product line where capital project activity was relatively soft in 2024.

展望 2025 年，我們預期對資本設備的需求將會增強，尤其是在木材加工產品線，因為 2024 年該產業的資本項目活動相對疲軟。

In our material handling segment, Q4 revenue declined 4% to $62 million compared to the then record fourth quarter of 2023 when we made the final shipment of a large capital order for the world's most technologically advanced bulk material conveying system. Aftermarket parts revenue was strong and represented 61% of total revenue of the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 130 basis points compared to the prior year. This decline was largely attributed to decrease in operating leverage associated with lower capital revenue.

在我們的物料搬運部門，第四季度收入與當時創紀錄的 2023 年第四季相比下降了 4%，至 6,200 萬美元，當時我們為世界上技術最先進的散裝物料輸送系統完成了最後一批大額資本訂單。售後零件市場收入強勁，佔本季總營收的 61%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較前一年下降 130 個基點。這一下降主要歸因於資本收入降低導致的經營槓桿下降。

Looking ahead to 2025, we believe this segment will benefit from planned infrastructure projects as well as the modernization of assets in the recycling and waste management sectors, particularly in the second half of the year.

展望 2025 年，我們相信該領域將受益於計劃中的基礎設施項目以及回收和廢物管理領域的資產現代化，尤其是在下半年。

As we look ahead to 2025, project activity is looking more favorable as the year progresses and demand for aftermarket parts has been stable as we enter the year. The strong and likely strengthening U.S. dollar is expected to negatively impact our foreign currency translation, particularly if the industrial activity rebound is stronger in Europe and Asia relative to the U.S.

展望 2025 年，隨著時間的推移，專案活動看起來更加有利，進入新年後，售後零件的需求也保持穩定。美元的強勢以及可能繼續走強預計將對我們的外幣折算產生負面影響，特別是如果歐洲和亞洲的工業活動反彈比美國更強勁的話。

Our balance sheet is in great shape and our ability to generate robust cash flows have us well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities that may emerge as the year unfolds. And we will work to deliver solid financial performance again this year.

我們的資產負債表狀況良好，我們產生強勁現金流的能力使我們能夠充分利用今年可能出現的機會。我們將努力在今年再次實現穩健的財務表現。

With that, I'd like to pass the call over to Mike for his review of our financial performance and our outlook for 2025. Mike?

說完這些，我想把電話轉給麥克，讓他回顧我們的財務表現和 2025 年的展望。麥克風？

Thank you, Jeff. I'll start with some key financial metrics from our fourth quarter. Revenue was $258 million, up 8% compared to the fourth quarter '23, including a 14% increase from acquisitions and a 1% decrease from the unfavorable effect of foreign currency translation. Gross margins increased 70 basis points to 43.4% in the fourth quarter of '24 compared to 42.7% in the fourth quarter '23 due to a favorable increase in the proportion of aftermarket parts which increased to 67% of total revenue compared to 60% in the prior period.

謝謝你，傑夫。我將從我們第四季的一些關鍵財務指標開始。營收為 2.58 億美元，較 2023 年第四季成長 8%，其中收購帶來 14% 的成長，外幣折算的不利影響導致營收下降 1%。24 年第四季毛利率為 43.4%，較 23 年第四季的 42.7% 成長 70 個基點，原因是售後零件佔總營收的比例從上一時期的 60% 上升至 67%。

Fourth quarter gross margin of 43.4% included a 40-basis-point negative impact from the amortization of acquired profit and inventory. Excluding this impact, gross margins were up 110 basis points over the fourth quarter of '23.

第四季毛利率為 43.4%，其中包括收購利潤和庫存攤提帶來的 40 個基點的負面影響。排除此影響，毛利率比 23 年第四季上升了 110 個基點。

As a percentage of revenue, SG&A expenses increased to 27.3% in the fourth quarter of '24 compared to 25.1% in the prior-year period. SG&A expenses were $70.6 million in the fourth quarter of '24, increasing $10.7 million or 18% compared to $59.8 million in the fourth quarter of '23. The $10.7 million increase in SG&A expenses was almost entirely due to the inclusion of $10.3 million of SG&A expense related to our 2024 acquisitions.

作為收入的百分比，銷售、一般及行政費用在 24 年第四季增加至 27.3%，而去年同期為 25.1%。24 年第四季銷售、一般及行政費用為 7,060 萬美元，較 23 年第四季的 5,980 萬美元增加 1,070 萬美元，增幅為 18%。銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 增加 1070 萬美元幾乎完全是由於納入了與我們 2024 年收購相關的 1030 萬美元銷售、一般及行政費用。

Our GAAP EPS decreased 12% to $2.04 in the fourth quarter of '24 compared to $2.33 in the fourth quarter of '23. And our adjusted EPS was down 7% to $2.25 from $2.41. Fourth quarter '24 adjusted EPS of $2.25 exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $0.15, principally due to lower-than-anticipated SG&A expenses.

我們的 GAAP EPS 在 2024 年第四季下降了 12%，至 2.04 美元，而 2023 年第四季為 2.33 美元。我們的調整後每股收益從 2.41 美元下降 7% 至 2.25 美元。 24 年第四季調整後每股收益為 2.25 美元，超出我們預期範圍的高端 0.15 美元，主要原因是銷售、一般及行政費用低於預期。

Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $52.4 million and represented 20.3% of revenue. For full year, revenue was a record $1.53 billion, up 10% compared to '23, including a 12% increase from acquisitions. We had record adjusted EBITDAin '24, which I'll cover in the next slide along with our cash flow performance.

調整後的 EBITDA 成長 8% 至 5,240 萬美元，佔營收的 20.3%。全年營收達到創紀錄的 15.3 億美元，較 23 年成長 10%，其中收購帶來的營收成長為 12%。24 年我們的調整後 EBITDA 創下了紀錄，我將在下一張投影片中介紹我們的現金流表現。

Full-year '24 gross margin exceeded 44% for the first time since 2017. Gross margins increased 80 basis points to 44.3% compared to 43.5% in '23 due to a favorable increase in the proportion of aftermarket parts which increased to 66% of total revenue compared to 62% in '23.

24 年全年毛利率自 2017 年以來首次超過 44%。毛利率從 2023 年的 43.5% 上升了 80 個基點，達到 44.3%，這歸因於售後零件佔總收入的比例從 2023 年的 62% 上升至 66%。

The '24 gross margins of 44.3% included a 40-basis-point negative impact from the amortization of acquired profit and inventory. Excluding this impact, gross margins were up 120 basis points over 2023.

24 年毛利率為 44.3%，其中包括收購利潤和庫存攤提帶來的 40 個基點的負面影響。排除此影響，毛利率比 2023 年上升了 120 個基點。

As a percentage of revenue, SG&A expenses increased to 26.6% in '24 compared to 24.7% in '23. Approximately half of this increase is due to non-cash intangible amortization expense associated with our acquisitions. SG&A expenses were $279.9 million in '24, increasing $43.7 million or 18% compared to $236.3 million in '23. The majority of this increase relates to our '24 acquisitions which had SG&A expenses of $35.6 million in '24 and an increase in acquisition-related expenses of $4.7 million. The remainder was primarily due to annual wage increases.

作為收入的百分比，銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 從 23 年的 24.7% 增加到 24 年的 26.6%。其中約一半的成長是由於與我們的收購相關的非現金無形攤銷費用。24 年銷售、一般及行政費用為 2.799 億美元，較 23 年的 2.363 億美元增加 4,370 萬美元，增幅為 18%。這項成長大部分與我們 24 年的收購有關，24 年的銷售、一般及行政費用為 3,560 萬美元，收購相關費用增加了 470 萬美元。其餘部分主要歸因於年度薪資成長。

Our GAAP EPS was $9.48 in '24, down 4% compared to $9.90 in '23. Our adjusted EPS was a record $10.28, up 2% compared to $10.04 last year.

我們的 GAAP EPS 在 24 年為 9.48 美元，較 23 年的 9.90 美元下降了 4%。我們的調整後每股收益達到創紀錄的 10.28 美元，較去年的 10.04 美元增加 2%。

In the fourth quarter '24, adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $ 52.4 million compared to $48.5 million in the fourth quarter of '23. As a percentage of revenue adjusted EBITDA was 20.3% in both periods.

24 年第四季，調整後 EBITDA 成長 8% 至 5,240 萬美元，而 23 年第四季為 4,850 萬美元。兩個時期的調整後 EBITDA 佔收入的百分比均為 20.3%。

For the full year '24, adjusted EBITDA was a record $229.7 million and a record 21.8% of revenue compared to adjusted EBITDA of $201.3 million or 21% of revenue in '23.

24 年全年，調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 2.297 億美元，佔營收的 21.8%，而 23 年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.013 億美元，佔營收的 21%。

Our industrial processing segment had record adjusted EBITDA of $110.8 million in '24 and a 250-basis-point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins compared to the prior year. Our flow control segment also had a record adjusted EBITDA of $106.9 million in '24.

我們的工業加工部門在 24 年的調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 1.108 億美元，與前一年相比，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 250 個基點。我們的流量控制部門在 24 年的調整後 EBITDA 也創下了 1.069 億美元的紀錄。

As you can see in the full-year chart, our adjusted EBITDA has increased in each of the last four years, leading to an increase in our adjusted EBITDA margin from 18.3% in 2020 to 21.8% in '24. Part of this increase can be attributed to the benefits of our 80/20 program.

正如您在全年圖表中所看到的，我們的調整後 EBITDA 在過去四年中每年都在增長，導致我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率從 2020 年的 18.3% 增加到 24 年的 21.8%。這一增長部分歸功於我們的 80/20 計劃帶來的好處。

Adjusted EBITDA is an important financial metric that presents our financial results excluding certain non-cash expenses like intangible amortization expense. Our 2024 intangible amortization expense increased 57% compared to 2023. While this negatively impacted our EPS performance, our acquisitions contributed to our strong cash flow and adjusted EBITDA performance.

調整後的 EBITDA 是一項重要的財務指標，它顯示了我們的財務業績，不包括某些非現金支出，例如無形攤銷費用。我們的 2024 年無形資產攤銷費用與 2023 年相比增加了 57%。雖然這對我們的每股盈餘表現產生了負面影響，但我們的收購促進了我們強勁的現金流和調整後的 EBITDA 表現。

As you can see from our cash flow chart, we had strong operating cash flow in the last two quarters of '24 compared to the first two quarters. For the full year, operating cash flow decreased 6% to $155.3 million compared to a record $165.5 million in '23. Our free cash flow of $134.3 million in '24 compared to $133.7 million in '23.

從我們的現金流圖中可以看出，與前兩個季度相比，24 年最後兩季我們的營運現金流強勁。全年經營現金流下降 6% 至 1.553 億美元，而 23 年則達到創紀錄的 1.655 億美元。24 年我們的自由現金流為 1.343 億美元，而 23 年為 1.337 億美元。

We had several notable non-operating uses of cash in the fourth quarter of '24. We repaid $33.1 million of debt and paid $5.6 million for capital expenditures and a $3.8 million dividend on our common stock. For the full year, we paid $300.3 million for acquisitions funded through borrowings. We continue to focus on utilizing our strong cash flows to accelerate the paydown of debt. And I'm pleased we are able to repay $124.5 million this year or approximately 41% of our '24 borrowings.

我們在 2024 年第四季有幾次值得注意的非經營性現金用途。我們償還了 3,310 萬美元的債務，支付了 560 萬美元的資本支出以及 380 萬美元的普通股股息。全年我們透過借款支付了 3.003 億美元用於收購。我們持續致力於利用強勁的現金流來加速償還債務。我很高興我們今年能夠償還 1.245 億美元，約占我們 24 年借款的 41%。

Let me turn to our EPS results for the quarter. In the fourth quarter of '24, GAAP earnings per share were $2.04 and adjusted EPS was $2.25. The $0.21 difference relates to $0.16 of acquisition-related costs and $0.06 of non-cash expense associated with the liquidation of a small dormant subsidiary.

讓我來談談本季的每股盈餘結果。24 年第四季度，GAAP 每股收益為 2.04 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.25 美元。 0.21 美元的差額涉及 0.16 美元的收購相關成本和 0.06 美元的與清算一家小型休眠子公司相關的非現金支出。

In the fourth quarter of '23, GAAP earnings per share were $2.33 and adjusted EPS was $2.41. The $0.08 difference relates to $0.10 of acquisition costs, $0.04 of other income related to our facility project in China, and $0.02 of restructuring costs.

23 年第四季度，GAAP 每股收益為 2.33 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.41 美元。 0.08 美元的差額與 0.10 美元的收購成本、0.04 美元與我們在中國的設施項目相關的其他收入以及 0.02 美元的重組成本有關。

The decrease of $0.16 in adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter of '24 compared to the fourth quarter of '23 consists of the following: $0.36 due to lower revenue, $0.20 due to higher interest expense, $0.02 due to higher operating expenses, and $0.01 due to a higher recurring tax rate. These decreases were partially offset by 26 sets of income from the operating results of our acquisitions excluding the associated borrowing costs and $0.17 due to higher gross margins.

與 23 年第四季相比，24 年第四季調整後每股收益減少 0.16 美元，原因如下：收入減少 0.36 美元，利息支出增加 0.20 美元，營運支出增加 0.02 美元，經常性稅率增加 0.01 美元。這些減少被我們收購的經營業績中的 26 組收入（不包括相關借貸成本）和由於毛利率較高而產生的 0.17 美元部分抵消。

Collectively included in all the categories I just mentioned was an unfavorable foreign currency translation effect of $0.02 in the fourth quarter of '24 compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

綜合起來，我剛才提到的所有類別包括 2024 年第四季與去年第四季相比不利的外幣折算影響為 0.02 美元。

Now turning to our EPS results for the full year on slide 17. We reported GAAP earnings per share of $9.48 in '24 and our adjusted EPS was $10.28. The $0.80 difference relates to $0.74 of acquisition-related costs and $0.06 of non-cash expense associated with the liquidation of a small dormant subsidiary.

現在轉到幻燈片 17 上的全年每股收益結果。我們報告的 24 年 GAAP 每股收益為 9.48 美元，調整後每股收益為 10.28 美元。 0.80 美元的差額涉及 0.74 美元的收購相關成本和 0.06 美元的與清算一家小型休眠子公司相關的非現金支出。

We reported GAAP earnings per share of $9.90 in 2023 and our adjusted EPS was $10.04. The $0.14 difference relates to $0.10 of acquisition costs and $0.04 of restructuring costs.

我們報告的 2023 年 GAAP 每股收益為 9.90 美元，調整後每股收益為 10.04 美元。 0.14 美元的差額與 0.10 美元的收購成本和 0.04 美元的重組成本有關。

The increase of $0.24 in adjusted EPS from '23 to '24 consists of the following: $0.88 from higher gross margins, $0.87 from the operating results of our acquisitions excluding borrowing costs, and $0.02 from a lower recurring tax rate. These increases were partially offset by $0.72 from higher interest expense, $0.54 from lower revenue excluding revenue from acquisitions, $0.24 from higher operating expenses, and $0.03 due to higher weighted average shares outstanding.

2023 年至 2024 年調整後每股收益增加 0.24 美元，原因如下：毛利率提高 0.88 美元，扣除借貸成本後收購的經營業績增加 0.87 美元，經常性稅率降低 0.02 美元。這些增幅被以下因素部分抵銷：利息支出增加 0.72 美元，不包括收購收入的收入減少 0.54 美元，營運支出增加 0.24 美元，以及加權平均流通股數增加 0.03 美元。

Collectively included in all the categories I just mentioned was an unfavorable foreign currency translation effect of $0.08 in 2024 compared to 2023.

綜合起來，我剛才提到的所有類別中，2024 年與 2023 年相比，外幣折算的不利影響為 0.08 美元。

Now let's turn to our liquidity metrics starting on slide 18. Our cash conversion days calculated by taking days in receivables, plus days in inventory, subtracting days in accounts payable was 122 at the end of the fourth quarter of '24, down from 129 days last quarter and 130 days at the end of '23. The decrease in cash conversion days was principally driven by a lower number of days in inventory.

現在讓我們從第 18 張投影片開始討論流動性指標。我們的現金轉換天數是透過應收帳款天數加上庫存天數，減去應付帳款天數來計算的，截至 24 年第四季末為 122 天，低於上一季的 129 天和 23 年底的 130 天。現金週轉天數的減少主要是由於庫存天數減少。

Working capital as percentage of revenue decreased to 15% in the fourth quarter '24 compared to 17.2% in the third quarter of '24, but up from 12.8% in the fourth quarter of '23.

24 年第四季，營運資本佔營收的百分比從 24 年第三季的 17.2% 下降至 15%，但高於 23 年第四季的 12.8%。

Net debt that is debt less cash at the end of '24 was $192.6 million, a decrease of 19% or $44.1 million from the net debt of $236.7 million at the end of the third quarter of '24.

24 年底的淨債務（即債務減去現金）為 1.926 億美元，較 24 年第三季末的淨債務 2.367 億美元減少 19% 或 4,410 萬美元。

Borrowings made in '24 to fund our acquisitions contributed to an increase in our interest expense which totaled $20 million in '24 compared to $8.4 million in '23. Our leverage ratio, calculated as defined in our credit agreement, decreased below 1 to 0.99 at the end of '24 compared to 1.13 at the end of the third quarter of '24. We have $122 million of borrowing capacity available under our revolving credit facility and an additional $200 million of uncommitted borrowing capacity.

2024 年為資助收購而進行的借款導致我們的利息支出增加，2024 年的利息支出總計 2,000 萬美元，而 2023 年為 840 萬美元。我們的槓桿率（按照我們的信貸協議中的定義計算）在 24 年底下降至 1 以下至 0.99，而 24 年第三季末為 1.13。我們的循環信貸額度下有 1.22 億美元的借款能力，另外還有 2 億美元的未承諾借款能力。

Now I'll review our guidance for '25. For the full year, our revenue guidance is $1.040 billion to $1.065 billion and our adjusted diluted EPS guidance is $9.70 to $10.05 which excludes $0.07 related to the amortization of acquired profit in inventory and backlog.

現在我將回顧我們對 25 年的指導。就全年而言，我們的營收預期為 10.40 億美元至 10.65 億美元，調整後稀釋每股收益預期為 9.70 美元至 10.05 美元，其中不包括與庫存和積壓訂單中獲得的利潤攤銷相關的 0.07 美元。

Looking at our quarterly revenue and EPS performance in '25, we expect that the first quarter will be the weakest quarter of the year due to the timing of capital projects. And the second half of the year will be significantly stronger than the first half as a result.

縱觀我們 25 年的季度營收和每股盈餘表現，我們預期由於資本項目的時間安排，第一季將是今年最疲軟的一個季度。因此，下半年的表現將明顯強於上半年。

Our revenue guidance for the first quarter of '25 is $235 million to $242 million and our adjusted diluted EPS guidance for the first quarter is $1.85 to $2.05 which excludes $0.04 related to the amortization of acquired profit in inventory and backlog.

我們對 25 年第一季的收入預期為 2.35 億美元至 2.42 億美元，第一季調整後的稀釋每股收益預期為 1.85 美元至 2.05 美元，其中不包括與庫存和積壓訂單中獲得的利潤攤銷相關的 0.04 美元。

I should caution here that there could be some variability in our quarterly results due to several factors including the variability of order flow and the timing of capital shipments.

我應該在此提醒，由於訂單流的變化和資本發貨時間的變化等多種因素，我們的季度業績可能會出現一些變化。

I wanted to outline a few points related to our full-year guidance. Our revenue guidance is negatively impacted by a $23.5 million unfavorable foreign currency translation effect based on exchange rates at the end of '24. After excluding this FX impact and a small amount of acquisition revenue, our organic revenue growth would be 2.5% at the top end of our '25 guidance range. This FX impact is subject to both upside and downside risk as the year progresses.

我想概述與我們全年指導相關的幾點。根據 24 年底的匯率，我們的營收預期受到 2,350 萬美元不利外幣折算效應的負面影響。排除外匯影響和少量收購收入後，我們的有機收入成長率將達到 2.5%，處於 25 年指導範圍的上限。隨著時間的推移，外匯影響可能同時面臨上行和下行風險。

Our adjusted EPS guidance of $9.70 to $10.05 for '25 includes a $0.32 unfavorable foreign currency translation effect. If you exclude the FX impact from the top end of our adjusted EPS guidance range, we would be at $10.37, up modestly from '24.

我們對 25 年每股收益的調整預期為 9.70 美元至 10.05 美元，其中包括 0.32 美元的不利外幣折算影響。如果將外匯影響從我們調整後的每股盈餘指引範圍的上限中排除，我們的每股盈餘將達到 10.37 美元，較 24 年略有上漲。

The softer capital bookings we experienced throughout '24 will have a meaningful impact on the revenue and earnings performance in the first half of '25, resulting in tough quarterly comparisons. Our projected increase in capital bookings in '25 are expected to lead to much stronger financial results in the second half of the year.

我們在整個 24 年經歷的資本預訂疲軟將對 25 年上半年的營收和獲利表現產生重大影響，導致季度比較困難。我們預計 25 年資本預訂量的增加將帶來下半年更強勁的財務表現。

Before continuing my comments on '25 guides, I also wanted to provide some information related to the new tariffs proposed by the Trump administration which are quite fluid at the moment. That the proposed tariffs on the import of goods from Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days. In '24, less than 1% of our cost of sales were related to goods we imported from Canada and Mexico, so a very small percentage. If these tariffs were to take effect, we would look for ways to mitigate the impact, including finding alternative suppliers and cost sharing.

在繼續對『25 指南發表評論之前，我還想提供一些與川普政府提出的新關稅有關的信息，這些信息目前相當不穩定。對來自加拿大和墨西哥的進口商品徵收的擬議關稅將推遲30天。1924 年，我們的銷售成本中不到 1% 與從加拿大和墨西哥進口的商品有關，所以比例非常小。如果這些關稅生效，我們將尋找減輕影響的方法，包括尋找替代供應商和分攤成本。

Our Canadian business is also selling to the U.S. to third-party customers. We are currently working on assessing the impact, but we believe our competition would also be subject to tariffs.

我們的加拿大業務也向美國第三方客戶銷售產品。我們目前正在評估影響，但我們認為我們的競爭對手也將受到關稅的影響。

Effective February 4, '25, an additional 10% tariff was imposed on the import of goods from China. We estimate that this will result in incremental material cost of $1.6 million in '25 and that approximately 75% of these costs can be mitigated by finding alternative suppliers and passing costs on to our customers.

自2025年2月4日起，從中國進口的商品加徵10%的關稅。我們估計，這將導致 25 年材料成本增加 160 萬美元，其中約 75% 的成本可以透過尋找替代供應商並將成本轉嫁給客戶來降低。

In addition, the Trump administration just announced an incremental tariff on the import of steel and aluminum. We're currently working on assessing the impact of this new regulation.

此外，川普政府剛宣布對鋼鐵和鋁進口徵收增量關稅。我們目前正在評估這項新法規的影響。

Guidance does not include an estimated impact related to any of these new tariffs. We will continue to monitor these tariff changes, and we will provide further updates as the year progresses and there is more clarity with the new regulations.

該指南並未包括與任何新關稅相關的預期影響。我們將繼續監控這些關稅變化，並隨著時間的推移和新法規的進一步明確，提供進一步的更新。

We anticipate gross margins for '25 will be approximately 44.5% to 45%. As a percentage of revenue, we anticipate SG&A will be approximately 26.5% to 27% and R&D expense will be approximately 1.5% of revenue.

我們預計 25 年的毛利率將約為 44.5% 至 45%。作為收入的百分比，我們預計銷售、一般及行政費用將約為收入的 26.5% 至 27%，研發費用將約為收入的 1.5%。

As a result of the significant paydown in debt in '24, we expect a 30% decrease in interest expense. For 2025, we anticipate net interest expense of approximately $13 million to $13.5 million. We expect our recurring tax rate will be approximately 27% and depreciation and amortization will be approximately $49 million to $50 million. And we anticipate CapEx spending in '25 will be approximately $24 million to $26 million.

由於 24 年債務大幅減少，我們預計利息支出將減少 30%。到 2025 年，我們預計淨利息支出約為 1,300 萬美元至 1,350 萬美元。我們預計經常性稅率約為 27%，折舊和攤提約為 4,900 萬至 5,000 萬美元。我們預計 25 年的資本支出約為 2,400 萬至 2,600 萬美元。

That concludes my review of the financials, and I will now turn the call back over to the operator for our Q&A session. Daniel?

我對財務狀況的審查到此結束，現在我將把電話轉回給接線員進行問答環節。丹尼爾？

(Operator Instructions) Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

（操作員指示）我們正在編製問答名單，請稍候。

Ross Sparenblek, William Blair.

羅斯·斯帕倫布萊克、威廉·布萊爾。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Morning, Ross.

早安，羅斯。

Just thinking about the organic order growth, we've been on a downward trajectory since around 2022. But are we right to think that the base is kind of in around that $240 million to $250 million level per quarter? And just thinking about the second half step-up in sales, how should we think about the sizing of the coming acceleration orders that you're anticipating?

僅考慮有機訂單成長，自 2022 年左右以來我們一直處於下降趨勢。但是，我們認為基數大約在每季 2.4 億美元至 2.5 億美元左右，這樣對嗎？僅考慮下半年銷售額的成長，我們應該如何看待您預期的即將到來的加速訂單的規模？

Well, I'd say, of course, Ross, on the order front, we're really looking for a significant delta on capital. So I'd say we're really -- you pointed out that $240 million to $250 million, we're looking at that improving quite a bit for our capital goods going forward. We've been running in that, I'll say, low $70 million. And we really need to see that improved by, say, 10% to 20% and that's really kind of what we're forecasting for '25.

好吧，我想說，羅斯，當然，在訂單方面，我們確實在尋找資本上的顯著增量。所以我想說我們真的——你指出 2.4 億美元到 2.5 億美元，我們預計未來我們的資本貨物將大幅改善。我想說，我們一直在投入資金，低於 7,000 萬美元。我們確實需要看到這一數字提高 10% 到 20%，這也是我們對 25 年的預測。

Okay. I mean, can you give us a sense of where the capital backlog was at year end? I think we're around $180 million, call it.

好的。我的意思是，您能告訴我們年底資本積壓的情況嗎？我認為我們的金額大約是 1.8 億美元。

The backlog all-in was $257 million and capital is 57% of that.

積壓訂單總額為 2.57 億美元，其中資本佔 57%。

Okay. And is there a mix between maintenance or greenfield? I think 2024 is more like a maintenance story that was being deferred. So presumably, this is going to be an easier setup going into 2025 just given the visibility around that.

好的。是否存在維護和新建專案之間的混合？我認為 2024 年更像是一個被推遲的維護故事。因此，考慮到這一點的可見性，可以推測，到 2025 年，這將是一個更容易的設定。

I would say it's more in what's in -- currently, it's more on the maintenance mode. And you're right, on the go-forward, they'll be, of course, the maintenance and then new projects.

我想說的是，它更多的是處於現有狀態——目前，它更多的處於維護模式。你說得對，在未來，他們當然會進行維護，然後再進行新專案。

Okay. Then just one more for me if I can. It's still difficult to parse out this environment. You had a peer announced a large order this morning which seems to support the market sentiment that there's this large project funnel in 2025. But at the same time, we're also seeing more facility closures that were announced. So I'm just trying to reconcile the moving parts as it relates to cadence. And if there's anything you guys can call out as it relates to customer conversation that give confidence for this at least greenfield aspect of the capital orders acceleration.

好的。那如果可以的話，我再多一個。分析這個環境仍然很困難。今天早上有一位同行宣布了一筆大訂單，這似乎支持了市場情緒，即 2025 年將出現一個大型項目漏斗。但同時，我們也看到更多設施宣布關閉。因此，我只是試著協調與節奏相關的運動部件。如果你們能提出任何與客戶對話相關的觀點，那麼這對資本訂單加速的至少是綠地方面來說是一種信心。

I think, of course, as we've talked about for the last seven quarters, capital has been slow. We had that record quarter, first quarter of '23, and capital orders really started to turn down after that with interest rates going up and have been pretty soft since then. That's one of the reasons why our parts and consumables has been so strong because people are running equipment longer than they normally do and it requires more maintenance and parts.

當然，我認為，正如我們在過去七個季度中所討論的那樣，資本成長一直很緩慢。我們經歷了創紀錄的 23 年第一季度，此後隨著利率上升，資本訂單開始下降，並且自那時起一直相當疲軟。這就是為什麼我們的零件和消耗品如此強大的原因之一，因為人們運行設備的時間比平常更長，並且需要更多的維護和零件。

But as we've said for some time now, the projects and the Board discussions are pretty active. Everybody's just waiting for more clarity. And we were hoping to get that. But of course, the last three weeks has been kind of crazy. So there's, I would say, more uncertainty and more lack of clarity specifically around these tariffs. And I think people are still trying to sort through. But project activity is there. They can't go forever without replacing equipment. And so it's just a question when the cycle starts again.

但正如我們一段時間以來所說的那樣，專案和董事會討論非常活躍。每個人都在等待更清晰的答案。我們希望能夠實現這一點。但當然，過去三週有點瘋狂。所以我想說，這些關稅方面有更多的不確定性和不明確性。我認為人們仍在努力尋找答案。但項目活動是存在的。他們不可能永遠不更換設備。所以問題只是循環何時再次開始。

I'm not sure who you're referring to on the large order, but if you look at, for instance, the housing, our wood products side has been pretty soft the last -- really, the last couple of years. Housing starts around $1.3 million last year, which is pretty soft. I see that the CBO just came out with a 10-year forecast. It has $1.6 million start for the next 10 years. So that would be quite strong and quite good, I think, for our business, assuming that we see that happening. But it's interest-rate sensitive, of course. And as I said, a little bit of the uncertainty that's occurring right now, I think has frozen interest rates.

我不確定您所說的大訂單指的是誰，但如果您看一下，例如，住房，我們的木製品方面在過去幾年裡一直相當疲軟。去年新屋開工金額約 130 萬美元，這個數字相當疲軟。我看到國會預算辦公室剛剛發布了一份 10 年預測。未來 10 年的啟動資金為 160 萬美元。所以我認為，如果我們看到這種情況發生，這對我們的業務來說將是相當強勁且相當好的。但當然，它對利率很敏感。正如我所說，目前出現的一些不確定性，我認為已經凍結了利率。

But capital will have to come back, and we've been in this game for a very long time and we know you can only delay making those investments for so long. And so things will start to strengthen. And as Mike indicated, right now, we think second half of the year, we're expecting to see some strengthening in these projects.

但資本必須回歸，我們已經在這個行業中待了很長時間，我們知道你只能推遲這些投資一段時間。事情就會開始好轉。正如麥克所指出的，目前，我們認為今年下半年，我們預計這些項目會有所加強。

Yeah. That all makes sense. Thank you, guys.

是的。這一切都是有道理的。謝謝你們。

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

庫爾特·英格（Kurt Yinger），地方檢察官戴維森。

Great. Thanks. And good morning, everyone. I just wanted to dovetail on some of the prior questions just in in terms of the uplift on the capital side into the back half. Is your sense that it's really just getting some of these tariffs settled in, maybe some hope around some relief on interest rates that would catalyze some of these discussions turning into bookings, or is there anything else specifically from a macro perspective that you're really keying in on here?

偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。我只是想就後半部資本方面的提升來解答一些先前提出的問題。您是否認為這實際上只是解決了部分關稅問題，或許對降低利率抱有希望，從而催化部分討論轉化為預訂，或者從宏觀角度來看，您真正關注的其他因素是什麼？

Well, of course, the interest rates are always a key metric that impacts, but also, it impacts economic activity. And I think that's really what our customers are looking for. They're looking for a better visibility and a sense of where the economic activity is going to be.

當然，利率始終是關鍵的影響指標，但它也會影響經濟活動。我認為這正是我們的客戶所尋求的。他們正在尋求更好的可視性並了解經濟活動的未來方向。

I would say we had some projects that we've been talking to our customers about that we thought might happen quickly here. And I would say there's a somewhat chaotic environment right now, I think, to say the least, with what's going on in Washington. And all that does is add more uncertainty. And these guys just say, well, we're going to wait another month to see how this sorts out. I think it's -- we need stability -- We need economic growth to start to accelerate and stabilize, but we need some stability. I think that's what they're waiting for and hoping for.

我想說的是，我們一直在與客戶討論一些項目，我們認為這些項目可能很快就會在這裡實現。我想說，就華盛頓目前的情況來看，至少可以說，目前的環境有些混亂。而這一切只會增加更多的不確定性。這些人只是說，好吧，我們要再等一個月，看看事情會如何發展。我認為——我們需要穩定——我們需要經濟成長開始加速和穩定，但我們需要一定的穩定。我想這就是他們所等待和希望的。

And as I mentioned just a few months ago, you can't delay investing in your business forever. At some point, we know we've been in this downcycle for two years now on the capital side. And history tells us that, essentially, another buying cycle is going to occur. We expected it, frankly, to happen earlier than it did. Interest rates have stayed higher than I think people would expect it. Economic activity around the globe, I mean, North America has been reasonably strong for us, but Europe's particularly weak, China's weak. And for us, what we really like to see is some stability and some growth starting to accelerate in Europe and Asia.

正如我幾個月前提到的，你不能永遠拖延對你的業務的投資。在某種程度上，我們知道在資本方面我們已經處於這個下行週期兩年了。歷史告訴我們，本質上，另一個購買週期即將出現。坦白說，我們預計它會比實際發生得更早。我認為利率一直高於人們的預期。我的意思是，全球的經濟活動，北美對我們來說相當強勁，但歐洲特別弱，中國也弱。對我們來說，我們真正希望看到的是歐洲和亞洲的穩定和成長開始加速。

Got it. Okay. That all make sense. And you touched on the wood product side, there's a number of OSB projects out there, new strand-based EWP project. It seems like there's pretty good visibility to the capital side in that market. Beyond that, are are there any specific areas or geographies where you feel like the visibility is really there on the capital side and and you think -- or you're pretty confident in an inflection coming or how are you thinking about that?

知道了。好的。這一切都是有道理的。您提到了木製品方面，目前有許多 OSB 項目，以及新的基於股線的 EWP 項目。看起來該市場的資本面具有相當好的可見性。除此之外，您是否覺得在特定區域或地區，資本方面確實存在可見性，並且您認為——或者您對即將到來的轉折點非常有信心，或者您如何看待這一點？

Well, certainly, our OSB business has held up surprisingly well. I would say that on our consumable business, on the sawmills, that's softened. And the debarkers, our debarking business has been pretty soft now for a while. We had a very strong couple of years there and built up a very large backlog. And I think the industry is absorbing that and things have been quite soft. But again, we think, based on discussions with our customers, that things are going to start to improve there as the year progresses.

嗯，當然，我們的 OSB 業務表現得很好。我想說的是，對於我們的消費品業務、鋸木廠來說，這種情況已經有所緩和。對於剝皮工人來說，我們的剝皮業務目前已經相當疲軟了。我們在那裡度過了非常強勁的幾年並積累了大量的積壓訂單。我認為該行業正在吸收這種影響，情況已經相當好了。但根據與客戶的討論，我們認為，隨著時間的推移，情況將會開始好轉。

And certainly, if we get housing starts, in fact, I saw that starts I think were $1.5 million in December, if we can average anywhere near that this year, you're going to see a much better market condition for our customers which utilizes parts and consumables from us and also allows them to make some investments in the business.

當然，如果我們有新屋開工，事實上，我看到12月份的新屋開工金額為150萬美元，如果今年我們能達到這個平均值，你就會看到我們的客戶擁有更好的市場條件，他們可以利用我們的零件和消耗品，同時也可以對業務進行一些投資。

Europe has been turned on its head a little bit because of the Russia situation. And that's slowly sorting itself out. The capacity has had to move around. And so, we're hoping to see some stability and growth there. I think the best thing that could happen for us in Europe would be for this Russia-Ukraine war to stop. Then I think you're going to see significant demand. You've got an entire country to rebuild. Possibly, some sanctions, I suspect, would be included in any peace agreement, sanction relief in Russia, which would be very good for us. So that's something that we're really hoping for is that they're going to be able to stop this conflict. And if they do, I think there will be significant demand that will come out of rebuilding Ukraine, in particular.

由於俄羅斯的局勢，歐洲的情況發生了一些變化。這個問題正在慢慢解決。產能必須轉移。因此，我們希望看到那裡出現一些穩定和增長。我認為對我們歐洲來說最好的事情就是俄羅斯和烏克蘭的戰爭停止。那麼我認為你會看到巨大的需求。你需要重建整個國家。我猜想，任何和平協議中都可能包括一些制裁，減輕對俄羅斯的製裁，這對我們來說非常有利。所以我們真正希望的是他們能夠阻止這場衝突。如果他們這樣做，我認為將會產生巨大的需求，尤其是來自重建烏克蘭的需求。

So those are things that we're hoping for. But even without that conflict resolving itself, I think you're seeing some shift and stabilization in the market over there. It's taken a few years to sort that out.

這些都是我們所希望的事。但即使衝突沒有解決，我認為你也會看到那裡的市場出現一些轉變和穩定。解決這個問題花了幾年的時間。

Okay. And if we were to think about the 2028 targets you laid out in December and put that together with the outlook here for 2025, recognizing acquisitions are a key factor and hard to predict, should we be thinking about a meaningful acceleration in 2026 well above target organic growth period? Or how would you frame that in light of the multi-year targets?

好的。如果我們考慮您在 12 月提出的 2028 年目標，並將其與 2025 年的展望結合起來，認識到收購是一個關鍵因素並且很難預測，我們是否應該考慮在 2026 年實現遠高於目標有機增長期的有意義的加速？或者您如何根據多年期目標來建立這個框架？

We work with economic groups that give us -- they look at our industries and our particular metrics and give us their thoughts and their data on it. And if you look at the material handling side, if you look at the wood side in particular, they're talking about an acceleration of growth starting back half of '25, certainly hrough the next few years, through '27, say, '28. So we do expect to see an acceleration in most of our key markets. Packaging tends to be a little more stable. It's talking about growing 3% or lower than 3% over the next several years. But on the material handling side, on the wood side, they're talking about a re-acceleration in growth. And that's what we would expect.

我們與經濟團體合作，他們研究我們的行業和特定指標，並提供他們的想法和數據。如果你看一下物料處理方面，特別是木材方面，他們談論的是 25 年上半年開始的成長加速，肯定會持續到接下來的幾年，到 27 年，比如說 28 年。因此，我們確實預期大多數主要市場都會加速發展。包裝趨於更穩定一些。它談論的是未來幾年的成長率為 3% 或低於 3%。但在材料處理方面，在木材方面，他們正在談論成長的重新加速。這正是我們所期望的。

Okay. And then if I could just sneak one more in on the gross margin side. With the softness in capital, at least, here early in the year, could you talk about some of the puts and takes around gross margins? I would think mix is going to be a benefit. But is there any offset as well from margins on capital orders maybe starting to be less favorable than you've seen over the last couple quarters?

好的。然後，如果我可以在毛利率方面再多加一點的話。至少在今年年初，由於資本疲軟，您能否談談毛利率方面的一些利弊？我認為混合會帶來好處。但是，資本訂單的利潤率是否也開始不如過去幾季那麼有利，從而帶來抵銷作用？

It's a good question, Kurt. As you said, the mix is going to be helpful, especially in the front half of the year, right? And then specific to capital gross margins, I would say, on smaller capital or replacement capital where we, I'd say, we have a little bit of the upper hand, those margins should be good. The larger projects are the ones that can be more competitive and you get pressure. So I would have to say we'll have to wait and see how those shake out. So that's my view. It's a good question because we are anticipating some larger projects coming in. So depending on how those land that we'll certainly see the impact in our gross margin performance.

這是個好問題，庫爾特。正如您所說，這種組合將會有所幫助，尤其是在今年上半年，對嗎？然後具體到資本毛利率，我想說，在較小的資本或替代資本方面，我們會有一點優勢，這些利潤率應該會不錯。越大的專案競爭就越激烈，你也會面臨壓力。所以我不得不說我們必須拭目以待，看看結果會如何。這就是我的觀點。這是個好問題，因為我們期待一些更大的項目到來。因此，根據這些土地的情況，我們肯定會看到其對我們的毛利率表現的影響。

Okay. Makes sense. Appreciate all the color. Thank you.

好的。有道理。欣賞所有的色彩。謝謝。

Gary Prestopino, Barrington.

加里·普雷斯托皮諾，巴林頓。

Good morning, Jeff and Mike. Could you, maybe just for me, let's talk a little bit about on the capital project side across all your three business lines? Where are you seeing the most sluggishness at least in the first half of this year? And then where's going to be the most significant snapback as you get into the back half of 2025?

早安，傑夫和麥克。您能否為我稍微談談您三條業務線上的資本項目方面的情況？您認為至少在今年上半年哪些領域最低迷？那麼，進入 2025 年下半年，最顯著的反彈將會在哪裡出現？

Well, I'd say, Gary, overall, the segment that has the most favorable outlook for us is industrial processing with wood leading the way and stock prep also participating in that. So that's the segment where we are anticipating the best growth. And then right after that, I would say, is in material handling whereas Jeff mentioned, we feel that as we move towards the back half of the year, we start to see a nice recovery there.

嗯，我想說，加里，總的來說，對我們來說前景最樂觀的領域是工業加工，其中木材處於領先地位，庫存準備也參與其中。因此，這是我們預計成長最快的領域。然後，我想說的是，緊接著的是物料處理，正如傑夫所提到的，我們覺得，隨著我們進入下半年，我們開始看到那裡出現良好的復甦。

Okay. And then just maybe a comment on the acquisition pipeline and I guess given that there's generally a consensus here that the economy is going to strengthen, things are going to get better, are you seeing that reflective in your discussions with potential acquisitions in terms of pricing?

好的。然後也許只是對收購管道的評論，我想鑑於大家普遍認為經濟將會增強，情況將會變得更好，您是否在與潛在收購的定價討論中看到了這一點？

I would say the -- as we said, most of last year, the activity level has been quite strong. Our corporate development team has been quite busy, an awful lot of opportunities that we've looked at and been in discussions with. And so the pricing is always driven by, frankly, the private equity guys. They set pricing. And their pricing is somewhat set by interest rates and how much leverage they can get. And so that's really what impacts pricing more so than, say, a more favorable economic environment. But the activity level, we think, is going to be very strong again in '25. That's what we're hearing from the bankers. And that's what our corporate development team is experiencing as they (inaudible) any given time, we're talking to 200 or 300 companies. And I think everybody's -- just like we're expecting things to strengthen as the year progresses, they are too. And so I think that is feeding into, I would say, the increased discussions that we're having with everybody.

我想說的是——正如我們所說，去年大部分時間，活動水平都相當強勁。我們的企業發展團隊一直非常忙碌，我們已經關注並討論了許多機會。因此，坦白說，定價總是由私募股權投資者決定的。他們制定價格。他們的定價在某種程度上是由利率和他們可以獲得多少槓桿決定的。因此，這才是對定價影響比更有利的經濟環境更大的因素。但我們認為，25 年活動水準將再次變得非常強勁。這就是我們從銀行家那裡聽到的。這就是我們的企業發展團隊所經歷的，他們（聽不清楚）任何時候我們都在與 200 或 300 家公司交談。我認為每個人——就像我們期望隨著時間的推移事情會變得更好一樣，事實也是如此。因此，我認為這有助於我們與大家進行更多討論。

Pricing is still yet to be seen. I would say pricing maybe did stabilize a little bit. But what we really saw last year was a much larger percentage of busted deals, deals that didn't happen. Probably the most I've seen in a long, long time where they would enter into an agreement and then it would not close. And I think that was a function of pricing and sluggish performance where things just didn't improve as much as people were hoping for last year. So that's where we really have seen it. So I think pricing is always a challenge, especially for us, because we tend to be very, very disciplined in our pricing strategies. But I would say we're reasonably enthusiastic about the environment we're seeing and the number of deals that we think are going to come to market.

定價仍有待觀察。我想說價格可能確實穩定了一點。但我們去年真正看到的是，交易失敗（即沒有達成的交易）的比例要大得多。這可能是我很長時間以來見過的最常見的情況，他們達成了協議，但卻無法完成。我認為這是定價和業績低迷的結果，去年情況並沒有像人們希望的那樣有所改善。所以我們確實在那裡看到了它。所以我認為定價始終是一個挑戰，特別是對我們來說，因為我們在定價策略上往往非常嚴格。但我想說，我們對所看到的環境以及我們認為將要進入市場的交易數量感到相當興奮。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Walt Liptak, Seaport Research.

沃爾特·利普塔克（Walt Liptak），海港研究。

Thanks. Good morning, guys. One, just dialing a little bit more on the industrial processing and the outlook for the wood products because it sounds like that's where you've got the best chance of getting some capital projects. So in the quarter, the bookings looked good. What was the mix of that in terms of capital projects versus aftermarket parts?

謝謝。大家早安。首先，稍微多談談工業加工和木製品的前景，因為這聽起來像是你最有可能獲得一些資本項目的地方。因此本季的預訂情況看起來不錯。就資本項目和售後零件而言，其組合情況如何？

We had some decent activity on the capital side. First, I'd say parts has been where we're good. But we also had some activity on the capital side, I'd say, more towards stock prep in the quarter. So that was a positive spot for us in the quarter.

我們在資本方面開展了一些不錯的活動。首先，我想說，有些方面我們做得很好。但我想說，我們在資本方面也採取了一些行動，更多的是本季的庫存準備。所以這對我們本季來說是一個正面因素。

Okay. Great. And so then when you think about I guess industrial process including stock prep but also wood processing, what are the pluses and minuses? Do we need to see that housing recovery that you alluded to, the $1.5 million, or is it lower interest rates or is there something in the pipeline that says that someone's got to replace some of their capacity?

好的。偉大的。那麼當您考慮工業製程（包括原料準備和木材加工）時，優點和缺點是什麼？我們是否需要看到您提到的住房復甦，即 150 萬美元，或者是降低利率，或者是否有一些計劃表明有人必須替換他們的部分容量？

It's interesting, of course, because as you know, housing drives more than just wood consumption. It really is a key component of the entire economy. Packaging is tied to housing in a big way. And so what we really need to see is the housing starts to -- I mean, we're not coming close to meeting demand out there. Demand is very high. The demand gap continues to grow. We've built $1.3 million-plus last year when we really probably should have been $1.6 million, $1.7 million. So that's a key component of it, I think. And that, of course, is tied to interest rates. If interest rates come down, housing becomes more affordable. So that's a big component.

當然，這很有趣，因為如你所知，住房不僅僅是推動木材消費。它確實是整個經濟的關鍵組成部分。包裝與住房有著很大的關聯。因此，我們真正需要看到的是住房開工——我的意思是，我們還遠遠沒有滿足那裡的需求。需求量非常高。需求缺口持續擴大。去年我們的投資金額已經超過 130 萬美元，而實際上我們應該投資的金額應該是 160 萬美元、170 萬美元。所以我認為這是其中的關鍵組成部分。當然，這與利率有關。如果利率下降，住房就會變得更便宜。所以這是一個重要的組成部分。

Housing also, of course, affects our material handling group, right? All the concrete, steel and aggregate, and everything else that goes into that. So it is a major driver of the U.S. economy. And so if it does increase from this low -- I mean the production was very low last year. It was near -- other than the '09 crisis, it was near, on average, a 30-year low. So we do expect that's going to improve. The forecast all indicates they think things are going to strengthen and that will. Both of our sectors, but the wood group we'll see it first, for sure.

當然，住房也會影響我們的物料處理組，對嗎？所有的混凝土、鋼材和骨料，以及與之相關的所有其他東西。因此它是美國經濟的主要推動力。因此，如果它確實從這個低點開始增加——我的意思是去年的產量非常低。除 2009 年金融危機外，平均而言，它接近 30 年來的最低點。所以我們確實希望情況會有所改善。所有預測都表明他們認為情況將會好轉，事實也確實如此。這是我們兩個部門，但我們肯定會首先看到木材部門。

Okay. Great. Appreciate that. And then just changing gears to geographic, I think you commented that Europe is sluggish. How about Asia and any of the trends that are happening in China?

好的。偉大的。非常感謝。然後換到地理話題，我想您評論說歐洲經濟不景氣。那麼亞洲和中國正在發生什麼趨勢呢？

Well, China has been very slow on the industrial side. The government continues to put more and more programs in place to try to spur some growth there. They're having to continue to increase the amount of money that they're going to invest. So it's slow. I would say, Asia, it kind of depends on which country you're looking at. But certainly, Germany is struggling right now. The German economy is very much tied to automotive exports. They're losing big market share in China right now, and so that's hurting them. And so they've got to sort through that. But in general, I would say, the activity level has been sluggish in most of Europe. What's interesting enough, what they call the PIGS countries doing a little better than the more established ones. Spain, Italy, are doing a little better than, say, Germany and France. And the UK is still sluggish. So Europe has some work to do, I think, to get their economies back accelerating again.

嗯，中國在工業方面發展非常緩慢。政府繼續實施越來越多的計劃，試圖刺激那裡的成長。他們必須繼續增加投資金額。所以很慢。我想說，亞洲，這取決於你關注的是哪個國家。但可以肯定的是，德國目前正陷入困境。德國經濟與汽車出口密切相關。他們目前正在中國失去大量市場份額，這對他們造成了傷害。所以他們必須解決這個問題。但總體而言，我想說，歐洲大部分地區的活動水準一直很低迷。有趣的是，他們所謂的「豬四國」比更成熟的國家表現得更好一些。西班牙、義大利的表現比德國和法國好一些。而英國經濟依然低迷。因此，我認為，歐洲需要做一些工作來使其經濟重新加速發展。

Got it. Okay. I appreciate the answers. Thank you.

知道了。好的。我很感謝大家的回答。謝謝。

Ross Sparenblek, William Blair.

羅斯·斯帕倫布萊克、威廉·布萊爾。

Thanks, guys. I just wanted to follow up on some of the margin sensitivities. Parts consumables are seeing stable demand. But where do you think we are in the restocking cycle there? And if there's anything different to call out from what you already said about the geographic dynamics as it relates to factory utilization rates?

謝謝大家。我只是想跟進一些利潤敏感性問題。零件耗材需求穩定。但您認為我們處於補貨週期的哪個階段？與您之前所說的地理動態與工廠利用率之間的關係相比，還有什麼不同嗎？

I would say, I think that destocking and restocking played itself out. I think we're seeing good, strong parts. In great part because the equipment is old and worn out. They just haven't made the investments in the last couple of years. And just like if you drive a car too long, you start to put a lot more money and keeping it running. So I think that's why if you look at the parts demand, it's a little better than you might normally expect relative to the operating rates. It tends to be a function of operating rates. But I would say it's particularly strong relative to the operating rates. In part because they haven't made the investments, the maintenance investments and the things that they often do. But I think as far as the -- as I said, destocking, restocking, I think that's played out now. And going forward, it's just going to be tied to operating rates and the age of the equipment.

我想說，我認為去庫存和補充庫存已經結束了。我認為我們看到的是好的、強大的部分。很大程度是因為設備老舊、磨損。他們只是在過去幾年裡沒有進行投資。就像你開車的時間太長，你就會開始投入更多的錢來維持它的運作。所以我認為這就是為什麼如果你看一下零件需求，它會比你通常預期的相對於營運率的情況要好一點。它往往是營運率的函數。但我想說，相對於營運率而言，它尤其強勁。部分原因是他們沒有進行投資、維護投資以及他們經常做的事情。但我認為，就我所說的去庫存、補庫存而言，我認為現在已經完成了。展望未來，它將與營運率和設備使用年限掛鉤。

Okay. So as we think about parts in consumables, I think orders are up 600 basis points P&C mix of orders this year versus last year. Do you think half of that's structural from recent M&A and the other half's just older equipment and as you deliver more passing and replacement equipment and maybe it's not as beneficial?

好的。因此，當我們考慮消耗品中的零件時，我認為今年的訂單量比去年增加了 600 個基點。您是否認為其中一半是由於最近的併購而產生的結構性問題，而另一半只是舊設備，並且隨著您提供更多的過往設備和替換設備，它可能沒有那麼有益？

I'd say, really, the transactions that we did had a high focus on parts and consumables, Ross. So all-in, that's what you're seeing the benefit of the businesses we acquired. If you go down to organic, it's more to what Jeff was talking about, I would say, organic has been flat, relatively flat which, given operating rates, et cetera, is a little bit of a surprise to us, a good surprise.

我想說，羅斯，我們所做的交易確實高度關注零件和消耗品。總而言之，這就是您所看到的我們收購的業務所帶來的好處。如果你看一下有機產品，你會發現它更像是傑夫所說的，我想說，有機產品一直持平，相對持平，考慮到營運率等等，這對我們來說有點意外，一個好驚喜。

Okay. And then just to put a finer point on the 2025 guidance, everything's static on the macro that you talked about. What is kind of the internal assumptions on P&C mix capital equipment?

好的。然後，為了更詳細地闡述 2025 年的指導方針，您談到的宏觀層面上的一切都是靜態的。財產和意外保險組合資本設備的內部假設是什麼樣的？

We are projecting the mix to be a little -- a tick above where we finished this year. So we are 66% on parts and consumables this year. We're looking at 67% next year or this year, actually.

我們預計，今年的混合比將略高一些。因此，今年我們的零件和消耗品佔比為 66%。實際上，我們預計明年或今年這一比例將達到 67%。

And then just one more really quick on 80/20, it changes every year, what's the primary focus when we think about the segments for 2025?

然後再快速問一下 80/20，它每年都會變化，當我們考慮 2025 年的細分市場時，主要關注點是什麼？

As you know, we have a list of companies and start dates scheduled for them. So our 80/20 teams continue to execute those. And of course, as new companies join the Kadant family, they get on the list. And so it'll be a never-ending effort. But we have several companies that are starting 80/20 this year both in North America and Europe.

如您所知，我們有一份公司清單以及為它們安排的開始日期。因此我們的 80/20 團隊會繼續執行這些原則。當然，隨著新公司加入 Kadant 家族，他們也會被列入名單。所以這將是一項永無止境的努力。但今年我們在北美和歐洲有幾家公司開始實施 80/20 政策。

All right. Well, thank you, guys.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Jeff Powell for closing remarks.

我目前沒有其他問題。現在我想請傑夫鮑威爾作最後發言。

Thanks, Daniel. So before wrapping up today, I just want to leave you with a couple of takeaways. 2024 was another record year for Kadant. Our employees once again performed at a very high level to achieve these results. While we expect continued uncertainty and volatility in various regions around the world in 2025, we believe our decentralized operating structure and our global presence will help mitigate the risks associated with this, and we look forward to maximizing the value we create for our customers and our stockholders in 2025. With that, we want to thank you for joining the call today. Have a great day.

謝謝，丹尼爾。所以在今天結束之前，我只想給你們留下幾點啟示。 2024 年是 Kadant 又一個創紀錄的一年。我們的員工再次表現出色，並取得了這些成果。雖然我們預計 2025 年世界各地將繼續存在不確定性和波動性，但我們相信，我們分散的營運結構和全球影響力將有助於降低與此相關的風險，我們期待在 2025 年為我們的客戶和股東創造最大價值。最後，我們要感謝您今天參加電話會議。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。