摩根大通 (JPM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go live to the presentation. The presentation is available on JPMorgan Chase's website. Please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward-looking statements. Please stand by.

女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加摩根大通 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。此通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）我們現在開始現場演示。此簡報可在摩根大通的網站上查閱。請參閱背面有關前瞻性陳述的免責聲明。請稍候。

At this time I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and the Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給摩根大通董事長兼執行長傑米戴蒙；以及財務長傑里米·巴納姆 (Jeremy Barnum)。巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Starting on page 1, the firm reported net income of $14.6 billion, EPS of $5.07 on revenue of $46 billion with an ROTC of 21%. These results included a First Republic related gain of $588 million, which was previously disclosed in the 10-K.

謝謝大家，早安。從第 1 頁開始，該公司報告淨收入為 146 億美元，每股收益為 5.07 美元，營收為 460 億美元，ROTC 為 21%。這些結果包括第一共和公司相關的 5.88 億美元收益，該收益先前已在 10-K 報表中揭露。

On page 2, we have more on our first quarter results. The firm reported revenue of $46 billion, up $3.5 billion or 8% year on year. NII ex markets was down $430 million or 2%, driven by the impact of lower rates and deposit margin compression as well as lower deposit balances and CCB. This was predominantly offset by higher card revolving balances, the impact of securities activity, including from prior quarters, as well as higher wholesale deposits.

第 2 頁上有更多關於我們第一季業績的資訊。該公司報告的收入為 460 億美元，年增 35 億美元，即 8%。受利率下降、存款保證金壓縮以及存款餘額和 CCB 減少的影響，NII（不含市場）下跌 4.3 億美元，降幅為 2%。這主要被更高的信用卡循環餘額、證券活動（包括前幾季）的影響以及更高的批發存款所抵消。

NIR ex markets was up $2.2 billion or 20%, and excluding the significant item I just mentioned was up 14%, largely on higher asset management fees, lower net investment securities losses, and higher investment banking fees. The markets revenue was up $1.7 billion or 21%.

扣除市場因素後的 NIR 上漲了 22 億美元，即 20%，而除去我剛才提到的重要項目，則上漲了 14%，這主要是由於資產管理費增加、淨投資證券損失減少以及投資銀行費用增加。市場收入增加了 17 億美元，即 21%。

Expenses of $23.6 billion were up $840 million or 4%, largely driven by compensation, including growth in employees across the front office and technology, higher brokerage and distribution fees, as well as marketing and legal expense. The quarter also reflected a $323 million release of the FDIC special assessment accrual compared with a $725 million increase in the prior quarter.

支出為 236 億美元，增加了 8.4 億美元或 4%，主要原因是薪資增加，包括前台和技術部門員工人數的成長、經紀費和分銷費的增加，以及行銷和法律費用的增加。本季也反映出 FDIC 特別評估應計款項增加了 3.23 億美元，而上一季則增加了 7.25 億美元。

Credit costs were $3.3 billion with net charge offs of $2.3 billion and a net reserve bill of $973 million. We have more details on the reserve bill on page 3. With this quarter's reserve bill, firm's total allowance for credit losses is $27.6 billion. Let's take a second to add a little bit of context to our thinking surrounding this number in light of the unique environment of the last several weeks.

信貸成本為 33 億美元，淨沖銷額為 23 億美元，淨準備金帳單為 9.73 億美元。第 3 頁有關於儲備法案的更多詳細資訊。加上本季的準備金帳單，該公司的信貸損失準備總額為 276 億美元。讓我們花一點時間來結合過去幾週的獨特環境，對這個數字進行一些背景思考。

Our first quarter allowance is anchored on the relatively benign central case economic outlook, which was in effect at the end of the quarter. But in light of the significantly elevated risks and uncertainties at the time, we increased the probability weightings associated with the downside scenarios in our CECL framework. As a result, the weighted average unemployment rate embedded in our allowance is 5.8%, up from 5.5% last quarter, driving the $973 million increase in the allowance.

我們第一季的準備金是基於本季末生效的相對溫和的核心案例經濟前景。但鑑於當時風險和不確定性顯著增加，我們增加了 CECL 框架中與下行情境相關的機率權重。因此，我們津貼中的加權平均失業率為 5.8%，高於上一季的 5.5%，推動津貼增加 9.73 億美元。

So with that in mind, the consumer build of $441 million was driven by changes in the weighted average macroeconomic outlook. The wholesale build of $549 million was predominantly driven by credit quality changes on certain exposures and that lending activity, as well as changes in the outlook.

因此，考慮到這一點，4.41億美元的消費成長是由加權平均宏觀經濟前景的變化所推動的。5.49 億美元的批發增量主要由某些風險敞口和貸款活動的信貸品質變化以及前景的變化所驅動。

In addition, it's important to note that the increase in the allowance is not to any meaningful degree driven by deterioration in the actual credit performance in the portfolio which remains largely in line with expectations. With that, let's go to balance sheet and capital on page 4.

此外，值得注意的是，準備金的增加並非在很大程度上是由投資組合中實際信貸表現的惡化所驅動，其基本上符合預期。有了這些，讓我們來看看第 4 頁的資產負債表和資本。

We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 15.4%, down 30 basis points versus the prior quarter as net income and OCI gains were more than offset by capital distributions and higher RWA. This quarter, the firm distributed $11 billion of capital to shareholders, which reflects $7.1 billion of net common share repurchases and the payment of our common dividend, which has been increased to $1.40 per share. This quarter's higher RWA is primarily driven by overall business growth in markets and some seasonal effects.

本季末，我們的 CET1 比率為 15.4%，較上一季下降 30 個基點，因為淨收入和 OCI 收益被資本分配和更高的 RWA 所抵消。本季度，該公司向股東分配了 110 億美元的資本，其中包括 71 億美元的淨普通股回購和普通股股息支付，後者已增至每股 1.40 美元。本季度風險加權資產的增加主要受到市場整體業務成長和一些季節性影響的推動。

Now let's go to our businesses starting with CCB on page 5. Consumers and small businesses remain financially healthy despite the recent down trends in consumer and small business sentiment based on our data, spend, cash buffers, payment to income ratios, and credit utilization are all in line with our expectations.

現在讓我們從第 5 頁的 CCB 開始討論我們的業務。儘管近期消費者和小型企業信心呈下降趨勢，但根據我們的數據，支出、現金緩衝、支付收入比率和信貸利用率均符合我們的預期，但消費者和小型企業的財務狀況仍然健康。

Moving to the financial results, CCB reported net income of $4.4 billion on revenue of $18.3 billion which was up 4% year on year. In banking and wealth management, revenue was down 1% year on year, driven by lower deposit NII, predominantly offset by growth in wealth management revenue.

財務表現方面，建行報告稱，該行淨收入為 44 億美元，營收為 183 億美元，較去年同期成長 4%。在銀行和財富管理方面，營收年減 1%，主要是由於存款 NII 下降，但被財富管理收入的成長所抵銷。

Average deposits were down 2% year on year and flat sequentially, while end of period deposits were up 2% quarter on quarter. Client investment assets were up 7% year on year, predominantly driven by market performance, and we continue to see strong flows into managed products. In home lending, revenue was up 2% year on year and originations dropped 42% year on year off a small base in a slowly growing market.

平均存款較去年同期下降 2%，較上季持平，而期末存款則較上季增加 2%。客戶投資資產年增 7%，主要受市場表現推動，我們持續看到資金​​強勁流入管理產品。在房屋貸款方面，營收年增 2%，而貸款發放量較去年同期下降 42%，原因是市場成長緩慢，基數較小。

Turning to card services and auto, revenue was up 12% year on year, predominantly driven by card NII on higher revolving balances, as well as higher operating lease income and auto. Card outstandings were up 10% due to strong account acquisition. And in auto, originations were $10.7 billion, up 20%, driven by higher lease volume.

談到信用卡服務和汽車服務，收入年增 12％，主要得益於循環餘額增加帶來的信用卡 NII 收入，以及經營租賃收入和汽車收入增加。由於帳戶成長強勁，信用卡未償還餘額成長了 10%。汽車業的租賃額達到 107 億美元，成長 20%，這得益於租賃量的增加。

Expenses of $9.9 billion were up 6% year on year, predominantly driven by growth in marketing and technology, higher field compensation, as well as higher auto lease depreciation. Credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.2 billion, up $275 million year on year, pred ominantly driven by the seasoning of recent vintages and card with delinquencies and losses in line with expectations. The net reserve bill was $475 million of which $400 million was in card.

99 億美元的支出年增 6%，主要原因是行銷和技術的成長、現場薪資的增加以及汽車租賃折舊的增加。信貸成本為 26 億美元，反映淨沖銷額為 22 億美元，比去年同期增加 2.75 億美元，主要由於近期信貸成長以及信用卡拖欠和損失符合預期。淨儲備金為 4.75 億美元，其中 4 億美元為卡片儲備金。

Next, the commercial and investment bank on page 6. CIB reported net income of $6.9 billion on revenue of $19.7 billion which is up 12% year on year.

接下來是第 6 頁的商業和投資銀行。CIB 報告稱，其淨收入為 69 億美元，營收為 197 億美元，年增 12%。

IB fees were up 12% year on year, and we ranked number one with wallet share of 9%. In advisory, fees were up 16%, benefiting from the closing of deals announced in 2024. Debt underwriting fees were up 16%, primarily driven by elevated refinancing activity, particularly in leveraged finance. And equity underwriting fees were down 9% year on year, reflecting challenging market conditions.

IB費用年增12%，我們以9%的錢包份額排名第一。在諮詢方面，受益於 2024 年宣布的交易完成，費用上漲了 16%。債務承銷費上漲了 16%，主要原因是再融資活動增加，尤其是槓桿融資。股票承銷費年減 9%，反映出市場環境嚴峻。

In light of market conditions, we are adopting a cautious stance on the investment banking outlook. While client engagement and dialogue is quite elevated, both the conversion of the existing pipeline and origination of new activity will require a reduction in the current levels of uncertainty.

鑑於市場狀況，我們對投資銀行前景採取謹慎的態度。雖然客戶參與度和對話程度相當高，但現有管道的轉換和新活動的發起都需要降低目前的不確定性水準。

Payments revenue was up 3% year on year, excluding equity investments driven by higher deposit balances and fee growth predominantly offset by deposit margin compression. Lending revenue was up 11% year on year, driven by lower losses on hedges, partially offset by lower balances.

支付收入年增 3%，不包括股權投資，這主要得益於存款餘額增加和費用增長，但被存款保證金壓縮所抵消。貸款收入年增 11%，主要是因為對沖損失減少，但餘額減少部分抵消了這一增長。

Moving to markets, total revenue was up 21% year on year, reflecting record performance and equities. Fixed income was up 8% with better performance in rates and commodities against a relatively weak prior year quarter. Equities was up 48% as the business performed well during a period of elevated volatility supported by higher client activity and strong monetization of flows, particularly in derivatives.

轉向市場，總收入年增 21%，反映出創紀錄的業績和股票。固定收益上漲 8%，其中利率和大宗商品的表現優於去年同期相對疲軟的表現。由於客戶活動增加以及資金流動（尤其是衍生性商品）的強勁貨幣化，在市場波動加劇的時期，業務表現良好，股票上漲了 48%。

Security services revenue was up 7% year on year, driven by fee growth and higher deposit balances partially offset by deposit margin compression. Expenses of $9.8 billion were up 13% year on year, predominantly driven by higher compensation, legal, and brokerage expense.

安全服務收入年增 7%，主要由於費用成長和存款餘額增加，但被存款保證金壓縮部分抵銷。98 億美元的支出年增 13%，主要原因是薪資、法律和經紀費用增加。

Average banking and payments loans were down 3% year on year and down 1% sequentially as we continue to observe payoff activity and limited demand for new loans across client segments. Average client deposits were up 11% year on year and up 2% sequentially, reflecting increased activity across payments and security services. Finally, credit costs were $705 million, largely driven by the net reserve builds.

由於我們繼續觀察到客戶群的還款活動和對新貸款的需求有限，平均銀行和支付貸款年減 3%，環比下降 1%。平均客戶存款年增 11%，季增 2%，反映出支付和安全服務領域的活動增加。最後，信貸成本為 7.05 億美元，主要由淨儲備金的增加所驅動。

Then to complete our lines of business asset and wealth management on page 7. AWM reported net income of $1.6 billion with a pre-tax margin of 35%. Revenue of $5.7 billion was up 12% year on year, predominantly driven by growth in management fees on strong net inflows and higher average market levels, as well as higher brokerage activity and higher deposit balances. Expenses of $3.7 billion were up 7% year on year, largely driven by higher compensation, including revenue-related compensation and continued growth in our private banking advisor teams, as well as higher distribution fees.

然後在第 7 頁完成我們的業務線資產和財富管理。AWM 報告淨收入為 16 億美元，稅前利潤率為 35%。收入 57 億美元，年增 12%，主要由於強勁的淨流入和更高的平均市場水平導致的管理費增長，以及經紀活動的增加和存款餘額的增加。支出為 37 億美元，年增 7%，主要原因是薪酬增加，包括與收入相關的薪酬和私人銀行顧問團隊的持續成長，以及分銷費用增加。

Long term net inflows were $54 billion for the quarter, primarily driven by equity and fixed income. In liquidity, we saw net inflows of $36 billion.

本季長期淨流入為 540 億美元，主要由股票和固定收益推動。在流動性方面，我們看到淨流入360億美元。

AUM of $4.1 trillion and client assets of $6 trillion were both up 15% year on year, driven by continued net inflows and higher market levels. And finally, loans were up 5% year on year and flat quarter on quarter, and deposits were up 7% year on year and down 2% sequentially.

管理資產受持續淨流入和市場水準走高推動，中國銀行間債券市場規模達 4.1 兆美元，客戶資產達 6 兆美元，年均成長 15%。最後，貸款年增 5%，環比持平；存款年增 7%，季減 2%。

Turning to corporate on page 8. Corporate reported net income of $1.7 billion. Revenue of $2.3 billion was up $102 million year on year. NII of $1.7 billion was down $826 million year on year. NIR was a net gain of $653 million compared with the net loss of $275 million in the prior year.

翻到第 8 頁的公司。公司報告淨收入為 17 億美元。營收為 23 億美元，比去年同期增加了 1.02 億美元。淨利息收入為 17 億美元，年減 8.26 億美元。NIR 淨收益為 6.53 億美元，而上一年淨虧損為 2.75 億美元。

Current quarter included the significant item I mentioned upfront, while the prior year quarter included net securities losses of $336 million. Expenses of $185 million were down $1.1 billion year on year, driven by the changes to the FDIC special assessment accruals I mentioned upfront.

本季包括我前面提到的重要項目，而去年同期包括 3.36 億美元的淨證券損失。1.85 億美元的支出比去年同期下降了 11 億美元，這主要是由於我之前提到的 FDIC 特別評估應計項目的變化。

Finish up, let's turn to the full year outlook on page 9. We continue to expect NII ex markets to be approximately $90 billion. The firm-wide NII outlook has increased to about $94.5 billion reflecting an increase in markets NII, which you should think of as being primarily offset in NIR.

最後，讓我們翻到第 9 頁的全年展望。我們仍然預計 NII 前市場規模約為 900 億美元。整個公司的 NII 前景已增加至約 945 億美元，反映了市場 NII 的成長，您應該認為這主要被 NIR 所抵消。

Our adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $95 billion. And on credit, we expect the card net charge-off rate to be in line with our previous guidance of approximately 3.6%. So to wrap up, we're pleased with another quarter of strong operating performance, but of course, the focus right now is on the future, which is obviously unusually uncertain.

我們的調整後支出預期仍約為 950 億美元。在信貸方面，我們預期信用卡淨沖銷率將與我們先前的預期（約 3.6%）一致。總而言之，我們對另一個季度強勁的營運業績感到滿意，但當然，現在的重點是未來，而未來顯然異常不確定。

But no matter what outcomes eventually materialize, we are eager to do our part to continue to support our clients, the markets, and the broader economy, and we believe the banking system will be a source of strength in this dynamic environment. And with that, let's open the line for Q&A.

但無論最終結果如何，我們都渴望盡自己的一份力量，繼續支持我們的客戶、市場和更廣泛的經濟，我們相信銀行系統將成為這個動態環境中的力量來源。現在，讓我們開始問答環節。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous.

肯‧烏斯丁，自治。

Good morning, Jeremy. Wondering if you could start by just kind of amplifying just the macro commentary that you started off on. And given the uncertainty in the world that you referenced, just how are you seeing the activity change across the customer base from consumers to wholesale? And can you just talk through how that's also just informing any changes in some of your growth and reserving expectations. Thanks.

早上好，傑里米。想知道您是否可以先稍微擴展一下您一開始所提出的宏觀評論。鑑於您提到的世界不確定性，您如何看待從消費者到批發商的客戶群活動變化？您能否簡單談談這是如何影響您對某些成長和儲備預期發生改變的？謝謝。

Sure, Ken. So, I mean, at a high level, I would say that obviously some of the salient news flow is quite recent. So, we've done some soundings and some checking both on the consumer side and on the wholesale side. I think on the consumer side, the thing to check is the spending. And to be honest, the main thing that we see there would appear to be a certain amount of front-loading of spending ahead of people expecting price increases from tariffs.

當然，肯。所以，我的意思是，從高層次來看，我想說，顯然一些突出的新聞流是相當新的。因此，我們在消費者方面和批發方面都做了一些調查和檢查。我認為從消費者角度來說，需要檢視的是支出。老實說，我們看到的主要情況似乎是在人們預期關稅將導致價格上漲之前，進行了一定程度的前期支出。

So ironically, that's actually somewhat supportive all else equal. But I think what I sort of highlight is that during this transitional period and this elevated uncertainty, you might see some distortions in the data that make it hard to draw larger conclusions.

諷刺的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，這實際上在某種程度上是有幫助的。但我認為我要強調的是，在這個過渡時期和不確定性增加的情況下，你可能會看到數據中的一些扭曲，這使得很難得出更大的結論。

In terms of our corporate clients, obviously, they've been reacting to the changes in tariff policy. And at the margin, that shifts their focus away from more strategic priorities with obvious implications for the investment banking pipeline outlook towards more short-term work, optimizing supply chains, and trying to figure out how they're going to respond to the current environment.

就我們的企業客戶而言，顯然他們一直在對關稅政策的變化做出反應。從邊際上來說，這會將他們的注意力從更具策略性的優先事項（對投資銀行通路前景有明顯的影響）轉移到更多的短期工作、優化供應鏈，並試圖弄清楚他們將如何應對當前的環境。

So as a result, I think we would characterize what we're hearing from our corporate clients as a little bit of a wait-and-see attitude. I do think you see obvious differences across sectors. Some sectors are going to be much more exposed than others and have more complicated problems to solve. And also across the size of the clients, I think smaller clients, small business, and smaller corporates are probably a little bit more challenged.

因此，我認為我們從企業客戶那裡聽到的回饋可以概括為一種觀望態度。我確實認為你看到了不同行業之間的明顯差異。有些行業將比其他行業面臨更大的風險，需要解決的問題也更加複雜。而且，無論客戶規模如何，我認為較小的客戶、小型企業和較小的公司可能面臨的挑戰更大一些。

I think the larger corporates have a bit more experience dealing with these things and more resources to manage. So that's a little bit of our read of the situation right now. But certainly, a bit of a wait-and-see attitude, it's hard to make long-term decisions right now. And so we'll see how that plays out.

我認為規模較大的公司在處理這些事情方面擁有更多的經驗，並且擁有更多的資源可供管理。這就是我們對當前情勢的一點解讀。但可以肯定的是，現在有點觀望的態度，很難做出長期決策。我們將拭目以待，看看結果如何。

Yeah. And just one question on the NII ex markets holding at $90 billion. Can you just walk us through the puts and takes of just what's the new curve you're using, which also is subject to change every day. And what might have been some of the positive offsets to if you put in more expected cuts than you had before Thanks.

是的。關於 NII 前市場持有量為 900 億美元，我只有一個問題。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下您正在使用的新曲線的優缺點？該曲線每天都會改變。如果您比以前進行更多的預期削減，可能會產生哪些積極的抵消作用？謝謝。

Yeah, that's a good question, Ken. You're right. So if you remember last quarter we said that we had one cut in the curve. I think, latest curve has something like three cuts. And so, we've talked a lot obviously about how we're asset sensitive. You now see our EAR disclosing the supplement. And probably our empirical EAR is a little bit higher than our model DAR as a result of the relatively lower than modeled rates paid in consumer.

是的，這是個好問題，肯。你說得對。所以如果你還記得上個季度我們說過曲線有一個切口。我認為，最新的曲線有三個切口。因此，我們顯然已經談論了很多關於我們如何對資產敏感的問題。現在您可以看到我們的 EAR 揭露了該補充內容。而且由於消費者支付的費率相對低於模型費率，我們的經驗 EAR 可能比模型 DAR 略高。

So when you put that together, all else equal, the drop in the weighted average IORB, which is about 22 basis points, should produce a notable headwind in our NII ex markets.

因此，當你把這些放在一起，在其他條件相同的情況下，加權平均 IORB 的下降（約 22 個基點）應該會對我們的 NII 前市場產生明顯的阻力。

In the curve basis?

在曲線基礎上？

Yeah. That's just a mechanic --

是的。那隻是個機械師--

It guaranteed not to have the (inaudible)

它保證不會有（聽不清楚）

So that's mechanically just falling through the curve. So yeah, your question is that given that, why are you not revising down? And the answer to that is that across all the puts and takes, actually, our number is a tiny bit lower. It's just not enough to warrant a change in the outlook, but we do have some offsets. So we have some balance of facts that are favorable.

所以這從機械上來說只是曲線下降。是的，你的問題是，既然如此，為什麼不下調呢？答案是，綜合考慮所有的投入和產出，我們的數字實際上要低一點。這還不足以保證前景的改變，但我們確實有一些補償。因此，我們掌握了一些有利的事實。

You will have noted that I talked about higher wholesale deposit balances. For example, we see beta outperforming in a couple of different places in CDs and in wholesale. The other thing is that you'll recall, we talked before about having a placeholder in our NII outlook potential impact of the card late fee rule. We've now removed that. So that's a little bit of an offset as well. So that's kind of how you get to unchanged, even though clearly all else equal, the lower expected front-end rates are ahead.

您可能已經注意到我談到了更高的批發存款餘額。例如，我們發現 Beta 在 CD 和批發等幾個不同領域表現出色。另一件事是，您會記得，我們​​之前討論過在我們的 NII 展望中設置一個佔位符，以防信用卡滯納金規則的潛在影響。我們現在已經將其刪除。所以這也是一種小小的偏移。因此，這是保持不變的結果，儘管其他所有因素都相同，但預期的前端利率較低。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Yes, good morning. This question is for Jamie. Jamie, you were on the media today talking about potential economic turbulence. But Jeremy also mentioned that banking should be -- the banking system should be a source of strength in this turbulence. The equity market always seems to think about the banks as weaker players given how they trade the stocks more on sentiment and fear rather than the math of the ability of the banks to absorb provisions going forward if we do fall into a slower economic downturn.

是的，早安。這個問題是問傑米的。傑米，你今天在媒體上談論潛在的經濟動盪。但傑里米也提到，銀行業應該——銀行體系應該成為這場動盪的力量來源。股票市場似乎總是認為銀行是較弱的參與者，因為銀行的股票交易更多是基於情緒和恐懼，而不是基於如果我們真的陷入經濟衰退，銀行未來吸收撥備的能力。

So I guess just the question here is, can you -- do you double-click on how you think this is going to impact the economy going forward and maybe double-click on Jeremy's statement that banking -- the banking system should be a source of strength.

所以我想這裡的問題是，你能否——你能否雙擊一下你認為這將如何影響未來的經濟，也許雙擊一下傑里米的聲明，即銀行業——銀行系統應該成為力量的源泉。

I just -- before Jamie answers that, Erika, I just want to make one brief comment, which is the banking system being a source of strength means what it says. In other words, banks doing their job to support the economy. That's not a statement about bank equity performance and the extent to which banks are cyclical or not.

我只是——在傑米回答這個問題之前，艾莉卡，我只想做一個簡短的評論，那就是銀行系統作為力量的來源是名副其實的。換句話說，銀行正在履行其支持經濟的職責。這並不是關於銀行股權表現以及銀行是否具有週期性的聲明。

Like obviously, a recessionary environment, as I've frequently said, all else equal is bad for banks from an equity performance perspective. We're talking about the financial strength of bank's balance sheets and our ability to support our clients in a difficult moment.

顯然，正如我經常說的那樣，在經濟衰退的環境下，從股權表現的角度來看，其他所有條件相同對銀行都是不利的。我們正在討論銀行資產負債表的財務實力以及我們在困難時刻支持客戶的能力。

And everyone trades stocks in a different way, but banks are core ocean when it comes to the economy. If economy gets worse, credit was to go up, volumes can change, deal curves can change. And we're not predicting all of that. What I would say is our excellent economists, Michael Feroli, I call him this morning, specifically to ask him how they're looking at their forecast today. And they think it's about 50-50 for a recession. So I'll just refer to that.

每個人交易股票的方式都不同，但就經濟而言，銀行才是核心。如果經濟惡化，信貸就會上升，交易量就會改變，交易曲線也會改變。我們並沒有預測到這一切。我想說的是，我今天早上打電話給我們優秀的經濟學家邁克爾費羅利 (Michael Feroli)，專門詢問他如何看待今天的預測。他們認為經濟衰退的可能性大約是 50%。所以我只會提到這一點。

Obviously, if there's a recession, credit loss will go up. And other factors will change too. And I think the one thing I'll add to what Jeremy said is -- and I don't usually pay that much attention to anecdotes, but this time I am. And I think you're going to see a lot of companies. You guys -- not you, but the analyst communities earlier do just earnings estimates for the S&P by 5%. So it's now -- it's up 5% as opposed to up 10%.

顯然，如果出現經濟衰退，信貸損失就會增加。其他因素也會改變。我想補充一點，傑里米說的話——我通常不會太關注軼事，但這次我關注了。我認為你會看到很多公司。你們——不是你們，而是分析師社群早些時候對標準普爾的獲利預測僅為 5%。所以現在——它上漲了 5%，而不是 10%。

My guess is that will be 0 and negative 5%, probably the next month. And then you're going to hear 1,000 companies report, and they're going to tell you what their guidance is. My guess is a lot will remove it. They're going to tell you what they think it might do to their customers, their base, their earnings, their cost, their tariffs.

我猜應該是 0 和 -5%，可能就是下個月。然後你會聽到 1,000 家公司的報告，他們會告訴你他們的指導是什麼。我猜很多人會將其刪除。他們會告訴你他們認為這可能會對他們的客戶、他們的客戶群、他們的收入、他們的成本、他們的關稅產生什麼影響。

It's different for every company. But I assume you see that. And anecdotally, a lot of people are not doing things because of this. They're going to wait and see. And that's M&A. M&A with middle market companies. That's people's hiring plans and stuff like that.

每個公司的情況都不同。但我想你已經看到了。據傳，很多人因為這個原因而不做事。他們將拭目以待。這就是併購。與中型市場公司的併購。那是人們的招聘計劃等等。

So people have to adjust this new environment. And I think we'll see what it is. I just also want to point out, just to say you can round it up, this is to make you feel comfortable, not uncomfortable. When COVID hit, unemployment went from like 4% to 15% in a couple of months.

所以人們必須適應這個新環境。我想我們會看到它是什麼。我還想指出的是，你可以把它四捨五入，這是為了讓你感到舒服，而不是不舒服。當新冠疫情來襲時，失業率在幾個月內從 4% 上升到 15%。

And we had to add to reserves in a two-month period of $15 billion. And then to show you how stupid CECL is, in the three-month -- three-quarter period, we took down the $15 billion. So just that just sizes up a bad recession.

我們必須在兩個月內增加150億美元的儲備。然後，為了向你展示 CECL 是多麼愚蠢，在三個月到三個季度的時間裡，我們拿走了 150 億美元。所以這只是對嚴重經濟衰退的評估。

If it's a mild recession; it will be less than that. If it's a really bad recession, it will be more than that. Either way, we can handle it and serve our clients. Earnings won't be great. And the stock will go down, which I look at as an opportunity to buy back more stock.

如果是輕微的經濟衰退；它會比那更少。如果經濟衰退真的非常嚴重，損失會更大。無論哪種情況，我們都可以處理並為我們的客戶提供服務。收益不會很高。股價將會下跌，我認為這是回購更多股票的機會。

Got it. And a second follow-up question. And I don't disagree with you guys on equity market performance of bank stocks. It's just that the mindset of portfolio managers is they always go back to sort of the lowest common denominator of fundamental performance versus thinking about resilience.

知道了。還有第二個後續問題。我並不反對你們對銀行股在股市上的表現的看法。只是投資組合經理的思維模式是，他們總是回到基本表現的最低公分母，而不是考慮彈性。

And to that point, the second question is on the reserve. Jeremy, you mentioned a weighted average unemployment rate of 5.8%. I think that's above where economists are thinking we could peak even in a recession scenario. How should we think about any incremental builds from here? And what you're going -- obviously, deterioration in the outlook, but what more do you need to see in terms of how you make decisions about further builds from here?

至此，第二個問題是關於儲備的。傑里米，您提到的加權平均失業率為 5.8%。我認為這高於經濟學家認為的即使在經濟衰退的情況下也可能達到的峰值。我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始的任何增量構建？顯然，您的前景正在惡化，但是，在決定下一步建設時，您還需要看到什麼？

Yeah, Erika. It's a good question. But the truth is there's just a little bit to an uncertainty right now for me to sort of given outlook for reserves, which is generally not a thing that we do anyway. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the extent forecast at the end of the quarter was the sort of bog standard no landing, barely any increase in unemployment.

是的，艾麗卡。這是個好問題。但事實是，目前我對儲備前景存在一些不確定性，這通常不是我們所做的事情。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，本季末的預測程度是標準的無著陸，失業率幾乎沒有增加。

Given that we knew at the time that there were some big pending announcement and there was quite a bit of elevated uncertainty around that, it felt like the forecast were kind of lagging because people were just waiting to actually get the information until it felt appropriate to add a little bit of downtime SKU to our probability assessment, which is what led to the increase and what led to the build.

鑑於我們當時知道有一些重大的待發佈公告，並且周圍存在相當大的不確定性，感覺預測有點滯後，因為人們只是在等待實際獲取信息，直到感覺適合在我們的概率評估中添加一點停機 SKU，這導致了增加和構建。

We use this weighted average unemployment thing. It's a useful way to help explain what's going on inside the reserve. But obviously, the actual mechanisms are quite complex, the depth the financial recession, the timing of it, distribution of outcomes, which sectors it heads, idiosyncratic stuff and wholesale. There's a lot.

我們使用這個加權平均失業率。這是一種有助於解釋保護區內發生的事情的有效方法。但顯然，實際機制相當複雜，包括金融衰退的深度、時機、結果的分佈、影響的產業、特殊因素和整體情況。有很多。

I think on consumer, as Jamie mentioned, it is worth remembering that by far the most important variable is unemployment. So if the labor market remains very strong, consumer credit will probably be fine. If it doesn't, then you're going to see it play through the way it always does.

我認為，就消費者而言，正如傑米所提到的，值得記住的是，迄今為止最重要的變數是失業率。因此，如果勞動力市場保持強勁，消費信貸可能會很好。如果沒有的話，那麼你就會看到它像往常一樣發揮作用。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

約翰·麥克唐納（John McDonald），Truist Securities。

Hi, good morning. Jeremy, on that same topic, no change to the full year credit card net charge-off forecast. How do we square that with the rising recession risk? Is it because you already have a couple of months of delinquencies kind of baked in the cake and this is more an issue for next year or just too early to call?

嗨，早安。傑里米，關於同一主題，全年信用卡淨沖銷預測沒有變化。我們如何應對日益上升的經濟衰退風險？是因為你們已經拖欠了幾個月的款項，這更像是明年的問題，還是現在下結論還為時過早？

We should have not given you that forecast. We don't know what the number is going to be. I would say that's a short-term number. And based on what's happening today is there's a wide range of potential outcomes.

我們不該給你那個預測。我們不知道這個數字到底是多少。我想說這是一個短期數字。根據今天發生的情況，可能會出現各種各樣的結果。

Okay. Yeah, that's what we're kind of thinking.

好的。是的，我們就是這麼想的。

Mechanically, John, though, as you alluded to, there are some mechanical elements to the way card charge-off works. That means that it's pretty baked, pretty far out of time a couple of quarters. So sort of echoing Jamie's point, it just doesn't necessarily tell you that much about what might actually happen through the end of the year, even if unemployment were to increase significantly, it probably wouldn't flow through the charge-offs until later.

約翰，從機械角度來說，正如你所提到的，信用卡沖銷的工作方式有一些機械元素。這意味著它已經相當成熟，遠遠超出了幾個季度的時間。因此，與傑米的觀點類似，它並不一定能告訴你到年底可能會發生什麼，即使失業率大幅上升，也可能要到晚些時候才會透過沖銷反映出來。

Okay. Got it. And then just on capital, how does this type of macro uncertainty impact your thinking around conserving capital as opposed to deploying it through your investment agenda and buybacks as the stock gets cheaper. Just -- are you still looking to arrest the increase? Or does this kind of change it?

好的。知道了。然後就資本而言，這種宏觀不確定性如何影響您對保留資本的想法，而不是在股票價格下跌時透過投資計劃和回購來部署資本。只是——您還在尋求阻止這種增長嗎？或者這會改變它嗎？

The investment that we do in banks, branches, technology, AI is going to continue regardless of the environment. And then we have -- the payment happens to Basel III and CCAR and G-SIB and all that, $30 billion to $60 billion of excess capital. And in the chairman's letter I wrote about what we think of that. But based upon the environment, the turbulence issues, I like having the excess capital.

無論環境如何，我們對銀行、分行、科技和人工智慧的投資都將持續。然後我們有——支付巴塞爾協議 III、CCAR 和 G-SIB 等，300 億美元到 600 億美元的超額資本。我在主席的信中寫到了我們對此的看法。但基於環境和動盪問題，我喜歡擁有過剩資本。

We are prepared for any environment. And that's how we can serve clients. That's not for any other reason. So where we have plenty of capital and plenty of liquidity to get through whatever the stormy seas are.

我們已經為任何環境做好了準備。這就是我們為客戶提供服務的方式。這並不是因為其他原因。因此，無論遇到什麼困難，我們都有足夠的資本和流動性來度過難關。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Good morning. I just wanted to drill down on the credit card spend. Any comments in terms of changing patterns on the consumer card spend? There's been headlines in travel kind of going down. Just talk about some of the puts and takes in that up 7% year by year.

早安.我只是想深入了解信用卡消費。對於消費者卡片消費模式的變化您有何評論？有關旅遊的頭條新聞有所減少。只談論其中的一些投入和產出，每年增長 7%。

Yes, it's a good question. We're seeing that too. So let me talk about travel. I mean we obviously saw the airlines discuss what they are seeing as headwinds for them, specifically in airline travel. And we're seeing that too through the card spend.

是的，這是個好問題。我們也看到了這一點。那麼讓我來談談旅行。我的意思是，我們顯然看到航空公司在討論他們所看到的阻力，特別是在航空旅行方面。我們也透過信用卡消費看到了這一點。

It's not obvious to us that that's necessarily an indicator for broader patterns. There are a variety of potential explanations for the narrow drop in airline spend. And as I mentioned previously, another thing that we are seeing, looking at the April data would appear to be a little bit of front-loading of spending, specifically in items that might be -- have prices go up as a function of tariffs.

我們並不明顯這是否一定是更廣泛模式的指標。航空支出小幅下降可能有多種原因。正如我之前提到的，從四月份的數據來看，我們看到的另一件事似乎是前期支出有點增加，特別是在那些可能因關稅而價格上漲的商品上。

So you see people behaving rationally. And I have noted even -- you hear anecdotes, and I've seen evidence of companies specifically advertising. We have pre-tariff inventory and so on and so forth. So it's not that surprising that you're seeing that a little bit in the spending data.

所以你會看到人們表現得很理性。我甚至注意到——你聽過一些軼事，我也看到公司專門做廣告的證據。我們有關稅前的庫存等等。因此，在支出數據中看到這一點並不奇怪。

The other thing that people are kind of interested in this space is like what's happening by income banks. We have seen some of the retailers and other folks talking about weaknesses in the lower income segment. And I think when we look at our card data and also our cash buffers and people checking accounts, of course, it is true that it is relatively weaker in the lower income segment.

人們對這個領域感興趣的另一件事是收入銀行正在發生的事情。我們看到一些零售商和其他人正在談論低收入群體的弱點。我認為，當我們查看我們的信用卡數據以及現金緩衝和個人支票帳戶時，當然會發現低收入群體確實相對較弱。

But when you take a step back and you ask, are we seeing signs of distress in the lower income segment? The answer is no. So sure, the margin cash buffers are lower, and you see some rotation of spend and spending is a little bit weaker than it was in the peak spending moments. But actually, some of the increases in spending that we're seeing in April are actually coming from the lower income segment. So no evidence of distress, I would say.

但當你退一步思考並問，我們是否看到低收入階層出現困境的跡象？答案是否定的。因此，可以肯定的是，保證金現金緩衝較低，您會看到支出的輪換和支出比支出高峰時弱一些。但實際上，我們在四月看到的部分支出成長實際上來自低收入階層。所以我想說，沒有痛苦的跡象。

Okay. That's helpful color. And then just separately, if we look at the delinquencies for the home lending, they increase both 2Q and year over year. Is that just some of the noise from the First Republic deal as you take the marks up front and then those portfolios essentially [reassessing] from an accounting point of view? Or is there something else going on there?

好的。這是很有幫助的顏色。然後單獨來看，如果我們看一下房屋貸款的拖欠情況，就會發現第二季和去年同期的拖欠情況都有所增加。這是否只是第一共和交易帶來的一些噪音，因為您預先收取費用，然後從會計角度重新評估這些投資組合？還是那裡還有其他事情發生？

Sorry, I actually didn't hear. Which of these delinquencies in home lending?

抱歉，我確實沒聽見。房屋貸款中存在哪些拖欠行為？

Interesting. I haven't looked at that. We'll have to get back to you on that. I think it's anything -- whatever it is, it wasn't important enough to get raised.

有趣的。我還沒看過那個。我們會就此事回覆您。我認為無論是什麼——無論它是什麼，它都不夠重要，不值得被提出來。

So it could be the First Republic accounting.

所以它可能是第一共和國的會計。

Yeah, anything is possible. Yeah, we'll get back to you on that.

是的，一切都有可能。是的，我們會就此回覆您。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with one on the proposed SLR changes and just the impact of rate volatility. Are the treasury is committed to providing relief to the banks under the SLR just to help mitigate some of the volatility in the 10-year. But given the geopolitical concerns, weakening global demand for treasuries, how does it inform your appetite just for purchasing US treasuries if those reforms are implemented and just how you're managing rate risk maybe more holistically across the firm just in light of some of the recent volatility?

大家好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。我想先談談擬議的 SLR 變化以及利率波動的影響。財政部是否致力於根據 SLR 為銀行提供救濟，以幫助緩解 10 年期利率波動。但考慮到地緣政治擔憂、全球對美國國債的需求減弱，如果實施這些改革，這將如何影響您購買美國國債的興趣？鑑於最近的一些波動，您如何更全面地管理整個公司的利率風險？

Yeah. So SLR alone isn't going to change that much for us. It may change for other people. Really need reform across SLR, G-SIFI, CCAR, Basel III, and LCR, all of which have deep flaws in them to make a material change. And remember, it's not relief to the banks, it's relief to the markets. JPMorgan will be fine without an SLR change.

是的。因此，單靠 SLR 並不能為我們帶來太大的改變。對於其他人來說，情況可能會改變。確實需要對 SLR、G-SIFI、CCAR、巴塞爾協議 III 和 LCR 進行改革，這些改革都存在著嚴重的缺陷，無法實現實質的改變。請記住，這不是對銀行的救濟，而是對市場的救濟。即使不改變 SLR，摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 也一切正常。

The reason to change some of these things is so banks -- the big market makers could intermediate more in the markets. If they don't, if they do, spreads will come in, there'll be more active traders. If they don't, the [indiscernible] have to intermediate, which I think is just a bad policy idea that every time there's a [indiscernible] in the markets, the Fed has to come in and intermediate.

改變這些事情的原因是為了使銀行——大型市場製造商能夠在市場上發揮更多的中介作用。如果他們不這樣做，如果他們這樣做，利差就會出現，就會有更多活躍的交易者。如果他們不這樣做，[音訊不清晰]就必須採取中間政策，我認為這只是一個糟糕的政策想法，每次市場出現[音訊不清晰]，聯準會就必須介入並採取中間政策。

So they should make these changes. The reason why is when you have a lot of volatile markets and very wide spreads and low liquidity in treasuries, it affects all other capital markets. that's the reason to do it, not as a favor to the banks themselves. And anyway, we don't take more interest rate exposure to this in any way, shape or form.

所以他們應該做出這些改變。原因是，當市場波動較大、利差較大且國債流動性較低時，就會影響所有其他資本市場。這就是我們這樣做的原因，而不是為了給銀行自己帶來好處。無論如何，我們不會以任何方式承擔更多的利率風險。

So it's not like we're going to change our position. We intermediate the markets to help clients do what they have to do. And if the banks could take bigger positions, they would have just larger dealer positions and take -- basically take not much more interest rate exposure. I should say that our folks did a fabulous job trading this quarter.

所以這並不意味著我們會改變我們的立場。我們充當市場中介，幫助客戶完成他們必須做的事情。如果銀行能夠持有更大的頭寸，那麼他們就會擁有更大的經銷商頭寸，基本上不會承擔太多的利率風險。我應該說我們的員工本季的交易表現非常出色。

And Steve, all I would add to that is that it is, of course, true, and we all remember the moment a few years ago, when intermediaries were, in fact, bound by us alone as a result of the expansion of the deposit base. And extraordinary actions needed to be taken to address that.

史蒂夫，我想補充的是，這當然是事實，我們都記得幾年前的那一刻，由於存款基礎的擴大，中介機構實際上只受我們的約束。需要採取非常措施來解決這個問題。

So we've seen when it is binding and it works not as designed, which is why we do very much agree that it should be fixed. I think our point is a little bit, as Jamie said in his Chairman's letter that it's not the only thing that needs to be fixed, and there are interactions among all these things.

因此，我們已經看到它何時具有約束力並且其工作方式不符合設計，這就是為什麼我們非常同意應該修復它。我認為我們的觀點是，正如傑米在主席信中所說的那樣，這不是唯一需要解決的問題，所有這些問題之間都有相互作用。

And we, as a bank, are not particularly bound by it. There is some interesting nuance too in terms of the potential TLAC issuance impact there, which is quite sensitive to which particular fix gets put in. So that will be an interesting thing to watch.

而我們身為銀行，並不受此特別約束。就潛在的 TLAC 發行影響而言，也存在一些有趣的細微差別，這對於採取哪種特定的修復措施非常敏感。所以這將會是一件值得關注的有趣事情。

Thank you both for that perspective. And just for my follow up, did want to ask on the market outlook. So admittedly less surprising to hear some of the cautious IB commentary in light of the uncertainty. But I was hoping you could just speak to the markets businesses, which have been performing extraordinarily well of late and just given the combination of elevated volatility, but also some indications that clients are taking down risk, how you expect that business to perform over the coming quarters.

感謝你們兩位的觀點。為了跟進，我確實想問市場前景。因此，不可否認，鑑於不確定性，聽到一些謹慎的 IB 評論並不令人驚訝。但我希望您能談談市場業務，這些業務最近表現異常良好，而且考慮到波動性加劇，但也有跡象表明客戶正在降低風險，您預計該業務在未來幾季的表現如何。

Yeah. It's a good question. As you know, Steve, we're obviously not going to give market guidance. Your guess is as good as ours at some level. But the ingredients are the right ingredients.

是的。這是個好問題。正如你所知，史蒂夫，我們顯然不會提供市場指導。在某種程度上，您的猜測與我們的一樣好。但原料都是正確的。

I mean, we've often discussed about how this business, all else equal, benefits from a volatile environment if markets are operating relatively normally, which they more or less have been. Of course, it's not guaranteed. We need to do a good job managing the risk.

我的意思是，我們經常討論，在其他條件相同的情況下，如果市場運作相對正常（而市場或多或少一直如此），這項業務將如何從動盪的環境中受益。當然，這並不能保證。我們要做好風險管理。

And yeah, there are states of the world where if our clients are struggling or deleveraging or taking no risk, that could be a headwind for us. So we're going to just do what we always do and try to manage the risk well in sort of our clients. But we were certainly happy to see the performance this quarter.

是的，在世界上的某些情況下，如果我們的客戶陷入困境、去槓桿或不願承擔風險，這對我們來說可能是個阻力。因此，我們將繼續做我們一直在做的事情，並盡力為我們的客戶管理好風險。但我們確實很高興看到本季的表現。

That's great. Thank you both for taking my questions.

那太棒了。謝謝你們回答我的問題。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Thank you. Hi Jeremy. I'm Jamie. Can you guys share with us, if you take a look at the nontraditional lenders, private credit lenders, they've been very active in grabbing market share from the traditional commercial banks over the last two or three years, particularly since the initial Basel III end game proposal came out in July of '23, which is no longer applicable. But are you guys seeing any opportunities where the customers may reintermediate back into the banks like your bank because of this volatility?

謝謝。你好，傑里米。我是傑米。你們能否與我們分享一下，如果你看一下非傳統貸款機構、私人信貸機構，你會發現在過去的兩三年裡，他們一直非常積極地從傳統商業銀行手中搶佔市場份額，特別是自從 2023 年 7 月最初的巴塞爾協議 III 最終方案出台以來，該方案已經不再適用。但是，由於這種波動性，你們是否看到了客戶可能重新回到像你們銀行這樣的銀行進行中介的機會？

I mean that's hard to tell, Gerard. I think it's too early to tell. But what I would say is that it kind of -- your question aligns with what we've been saying about this space for some time, which is we want to be product agnostic here and give our clients the best option that makes sense for them in the moment.

我的意思是這很難說，傑拉德。我認為現在下結論還為時過早。但我想說的是，您的問題與我們一段時間以來一直在談論的這個領域一致，那就是我們希望在這裡保持產品不可知論，並為我們的客戶提供目前對他們來說最有意義的選擇。

So whether that's a traditional syndicated lending facility or something that looks more like a unitranche, direct lending type structure, we're open for business for all of it. And I would say that when we talk about the financial system being a source, the banking system being a source of strength in this environment, part of what we're talking about is our commitment and willingness to lend through cycles as we've always done in the past and that we have the underwriting capability and the capital and the liquidity and the experience to be reliable lenders and serving our clients no matter what type of environment we're in.

因此，無論是傳統的銀團貸款，還是更像單一貸款、直接貸款類型的結構，我們都願意開展業務。我想說，當我們談到金融體係是源泉、銀行體係是這種環境下的力量源泉時，我們談論的部分內容是我們的承諾和意願，就像我們過去一直做的那樣，在整個週期中提供貸款，並且我們擁有承保能力、資本、流動性和經驗，可以成為可靠的貸款人，無論我們處於何種環境，我們都能為客戶提供服務。

So if that means that we have an opportunity to compete incrementally even more effectively in this environment, that will be great.

因此，如果這意味著我們有機會在這種環境下更有效地逐步競爭，那就太好了。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, you both just talked about the potential changes to the different regulatory outcome for you and your peers, whether it's SLR or the G-SIB buffer, et cetera. Can you opine for us your views, are you more confident with the new administration, new personnel, whether it's treasury secretary, business or others, the nominees for different regulatory heads that there will be a better chance of real regulatory reform, they see it the way you guys do versus the prior administration?

非常好。然後作為後續問題，你們剛才談到了您和您的同行的不同監管結果可能帶來的變化，無論是 SLR 還是 G-SIB 緩衝等等。您能否向我們表達您的觀點，您是否對新政府、新人事（無論是財政部長、商務部長還是其他人）以及不同監管負責人的提名人更有信心，認為會有更好的機會進行真正的監管改革，他們與前任政府的看法相同嗎？

Yeah. I mean, Gerard, we always say this. And it's true, which is that we work with all administrations and every administration as constructively as possible to express our opinions and advocate for the things that we think are right for the banking system and for the economy as a whole. And that was true before and it's true now with this administration as well.

是的。我的意思是，傑拉德，我們總是這麼說。事實確實如此，我們盡可能以建設性的方式與所有政府部門合作，表達我們的意見，並倡導我們認為對銀行系統和整個經濟有利的事情。以前如此，現在本屆政府也是如此。

Clearly, the administration has been quite vocal about wanting more pro-growth policies at the margin and for wanting to make it easier for banks to participate more constructively in the economy. And as we see the various folks and the various agencies go through a confirmation process, it will be helpful to have people in seats and good to work on some of the things that we want to get done. So -- let's see how that plays out. But we're looking forward to continuing to engage constructively

顯然，政府一直明確表示希望推出更多有利於成長的邊際政策，並希望讓銀行更容易、更有建設性地參與經濟。當我們看到不同的人和不同的機構經歷確認過程時，讓人們就位並很好地完成我們想要完成的一些事情將會很有幫助。那麼——讓我們看看結果如何。但我們期待繼續進行建設性接觸

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Thanks Gerard.

謝謝杰拉德。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Thank you. Good morning. I guess I just wanted to follow up on the macro uncertainty. I think when you talk to investors, we've gone from enthusiasm for approved business administration to a lot of headwinds. And I think Jamie mentioned, you'll have companies take down guidance, et cetera, potentially over the coming weeks.

謝謝。早安.我想我只是想跟進宏觀不確定性。我認為，當你與投資者交談時，我們已經從對獲得批准的商業管理的熱情轉變為面臨許多阻力。我認為傑米提到過，未來幾週內，公司可能會撤下指導等等。

I'm just wondering what is it you think we need to see before this uncertainty abates? Are the 90-day pause that we saw with some of the other countries on tariffs, is that enough? I'm just wondering, when you talk to clients, corporate CEOs, what are they looking for from the administration that would inject confidence to get back anywhere close to where we were maybe 60 or 90 days above.

我只是想知道，您認為在這種不確定性消退之前我們需要看到什麼？我們看到其他一些國家對關稅實施了 90 天的暫停，這是否足夠了？我只是想知道，當您與客戶、企業執行長交談時，他們希望從管理層獲得什麼，以注入信心，讓我們回到 60 或 90 天前的水平。

First, some of all the issues that are raised existed before the new administration, like the geopolitical situation, the excess fiscal deficits, poorly done regulations, and all that. Obviously, pro-growth is good. Pro-business is good. Pro-D reg is good. I think the best thing to do is to allow the secretary of treasury and the folks working with them and the administration to finish as quick as possible the agreements that they need to make with -- around tariffs and with our trading partners.

首先，所提出的一些問題在新政府上任之前就已經存在，例如地緣政治局勢、過度的財政赤字、監管不力等等。顯然，促進成長是好事。親商是好事。Pro-D reg 很好。我認為最好的方法是讓財政部長和與其合作的人員以及政府盡快完成他們需要與我們的貿易夥伴就關稅問題達成的協議。

And I think there'll be agreements in principle. They're not going to trade agreements themselves would be 5,000 or 10,000 pages long. And that's the best way to go about it right now. That does not mean you won't have some of the effects take place anyway.

我認為雙方原則上會達成協議。他們不會簽署長達 5,000 或 10,000 頁的貿易協定。這是目前最好的解決方法。這並不意味著你不會遇到某些影響。

Got it. As a follow-up, I think there's a lot of concern also in the treasury markets. We've seen the 10-year move from 399 to 450 in a matter of a week. Just your comfort level in terms of the functioning of the treasury market, do you see the Fed stepping in, pausing QT, maybe even initiating some treasury purchases? Any color would be great.

知道了。接下來，我認為國債市場也存在著許多擔憂。我們看到，在短短一週內，10 年期殖利率從 399 升至 450。就您對國債市場運作的信心程度而言，您是否認為聯準會介入，暫停量化緊縮政策，甚至啟動一些國債購買計畫？任何顏色都很好。

Yeah. But again, I mean, we have sticky inflation. We had that before. I personally have told you I don't think that's going to go away, and that relates to that. Obviously, the US dollar still is the reserve currency, and that isn't going to change though some people may feel slightly differently about it.

是的。但我想說的是，我們面臨頑固的通膨。我們以前也遇到過這種情況。我個人已經告訴過你，我認為這不會消失，而且與此有關。顯然，美元仍然是儲備貨幣，這一點不會改變，儘管有些人對此可能略有不同看法。

And the Fed -- we've been consistent. There will be a kerfuffle of the treasury markets because of all the rules and regulations. I've told you that consistently. It happened in COVID; it happened before it happened. That will happen, and then when that happens, the Fed will step in.

聯準會—我們一直保持一致。由於各種規則和規定，國債市場將會出現混亂。我一直都這麼告訴你們。這發生在 COVID 中；這件事在它發生之前就發生了。這會發生，當這種情況發生時，聯準會就會介入。

That's what happens. And then I can do it now because you don't have all those issues yet. They'll do it when they start to panic a little bit. And we don't know if and when that's going to happen. And we'll see.

事情就是這樣的。然後我現在就可以做，因為你還沒有遇到所有這些問題。當他們開始有點恐慌時，他們就會這麼做。我們不知道這是否會發生、以及何時會發生。我們將拭目以待。

But the notion that the 10-year treasury has to go down is a false notion. We look at history in prior times, we have huge global deficits, back in the 70s, in the 60s, the guns and butter, tariffs. At least our cost then will be inflationary to 0.5% or something like that. So we'll have to wait and see and deal with it.

但十年期公債殖利率必須下降的想法是錯誤的。我們回顧過去的歷史，我們有巨大的全球赤字，早在 70 年代，60 年代，大砲和黃油，關稅。至少我們的成本將通膨至 0.5% 或類似的水平。所以我們必須拭目以待並處理此事。

For most people -- most haven't dealt with this stuff before. And you're going to see a lot of stuff taking place shortly in the next couple of months and then we'll know.

對大多數人來說——大多數人以前都沒有處理過這些事情。在接下來的幾個月裡，你會看到很多事情發生，然後我們就會知道。

Got it. Thank you so much.

知道了。太感謝了。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

Hey, good morning. Jeremy, just on -- with three to four cuts sort of mostly in the back half of June to December, how do you think about the trajectory of NII this year? Is there a little more pressure towards the end of the year into '26? Just trying to think of that around that trajectory and jumping off point into next year?

嘿，早安。傑里米，剛才說了——在 6 月下半月到 12 月期間，政府進行了三到四次削減，您如何看待今年 NII 的發展軌跡？接近年底，也就是 26 年，壓力是否會更大一些？只是想思考這個軌跡以及明年的起點？

Yes. It's funny, Jim because I was asked on the press call how come we're not like suspending guidance or whatever? And my answer was like, well, whatever guidance. And we do our best, and it's contingent on a variety of external variables, and we always make our guidance contingent on that. So --

是的。這很有趣，吉姆，因為我在新聞發布會上被問到為什麼我們不暫停指導或諸如此類的事情？我的回答是，好吧，任何指導都可以。我們盡力而為，這取決於各種外部變量，我們始終以此為基礎提供指導。所以--

On the curve (multiple speakers) which we know will not happen.

在曲線上（多個揚聲器），我們知道這不會發生。

Yeah. And the particular nuance, as you recall from last quarter, where we went into some detail about the various drivers of the NII outlook, including a little bit of a suggestion about the quarterly trajectory is that it's both the timing of rates and the -- our expected evolution of deposit growth in the different businesses and how hard to evolve and how that was all going to interact, producing a potential trough in different moments and then so on and so forth.

是的。正如您從上個季度所記得的，我們詳細討論了 NII 前景的各種驅動因素​​，包括對季度軌蹟的一些建議，其中特別的細微差別是，它既是利率的時機，也是我們預期的不同業務中存款增長的演變，以及演變的難度和所有這些將如何相互作用，在不同時刻產生潛在的低谷，然後等等。

I think that given everything that's going on, on that one, probably we'll wait for next quarter to give you any more color on that. Certainly, the back-loaded cuts, all else equal, from a run rate perspective, introduced a little bit of a headwind on an exit rate going into next year, we'll just have to see how the balances play out through the next three quarters.

我認為，考慮到目前發生的一切，我們可能要等到下個季度才能給您更多詳細資訊。當然，從運行率的角度來看，在其他條件相同的情況下，後期削減會為明年的退出率帶來一點阻力，我們只需要看看未來三個季度的平衡情況如何。

Right.

正確的。

And it will not happen that way. And we have a lot of options and what we want to do to change our exposed interest rate.

但事情不會這樣發生。我們有很多選擇，我們可以採取很多措施來改變我們的暴露利率。

Right. And maybe just on that that point on on volumes and deposits. Obviously, this kind of volatility tends to drive -- as corporates and investors go to cash, tends to drive higher deposits. Did you see that trend in March and particularly in April? What are the trends like in the deposit side of the equation?

正確的。也許只是關於交易量和存款的那個點。顯然，這種波動往往會推動——隨著企業和投資者轉向現金，往往會推動更高的存款。您在三月，特別是四月看到了這種趨勢嗎？等式中存款方面的趨勢是怎麼樣的？

It's a little hard to tell to be honest. It is true that wholesale deposits this quarter outperformed for us relative to our expectations. I don't think I can say with any confidence that that's a result of the environment that we're in. So I think next quarter will probably be a better time to assess that.

說實話這有點難說。確實，本季批發存款的表現超出了我們的預期。我認為我不能自信地說這是我們所處環境的結果。所以我認為下個季度可能是評估這一點的更好時機。

I just also it may not be deposits. It may be treasury bills or various other things. And we've seen which is different, it's not the risk of trade in the 10 year. That is fundamentally different this time.

我只是也認為這可能不是存款。它可能是國庫券或其他各種東西。我們已經看到了不同之處，這不是 10 年期的貿易風險。這次的情況有根本的不同。

Right, okay, thanks for taking my questions.

好的，好的，感謝您回答我的問題。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Thanks. Good morning, Jamie. Good morning, Jeremy. Two questions, one for Jamie, just to kick off. Jamie, you've been through many cycles. And I think we're all interested in understanding how you think this next cycle is likely to progress. And I'm wondering, is there anything that you've seen in the past that looks like this or that you would suggest if any slowdown coming forward, is it more likely to be similar to what kind of prior cycle you've seen?

謝謝。早安，傑米。早上好，傑里米。有兩個問題，一個是問 Jamie 的，只是為了開始。傑米，你已經經歷了很多週期。我認為我們都很想知道您認為下一個週期可能如何發展。我想知道，您過去是否見過類似情況，或者您認為如果未來出現任何放緩，是否更有可能類似於您所見過的先前週期？

Almost impossible answer. We look at all the cycles. And you know we prepare for a full range of outcomes. We're not -- I don't personally like predicting what the future is going to hold. But I do -- I pointed out over and over, there's a lot of issues out there. I think some of those issues, you are going to see them resolve for better or for worse in the next four months.

幾乎不可能的答案。我們觀察所有的周期。你知道，我們已經為各種結果做好了準備。我們不是——我個人不喜歡預測未來會發生什麼。但我確實——我反覆指出，那裡存在著很多問題。我認為，其中一些問題將在未來四個月內解決，無論好壞。

So maybe when we're doing this call next quarter, we won't have to be guessing. We actually know what the effect of some of these things was with some predictability and stuff like that. But it's -- the result in a bank is almost always the same, which is volatile markets, credit losses go up, people get more conservative, investments go down. That looks like a recession.

因此，也許當我們下個季度進行這次電話會議時，我們就不必再猜測了。我們實際上知道其中一些事情會產生什麼影響，並且具有一定的可預測性等等。但銀行的結果幾乎總是相同的，即市場動盪，信貸損失上升，人們變得更加保守，投資下降。這看起來像是一場經濟衰退。

Is it mild or hard, I don't know. But we are -- I've been quite cautious and -- and you can see in our capital, our liquidity, our position, our balance sheet. And so we're prepared. But we do all of that so we can serve our clients through thick or thin. I'm not guessing about what the future is going to hold. Obviously, if you look at our numbers, we have the margins and capability to get through just about anything.

它是溫和的還是艱難的，我不知道。但我們——我一直非常謹慎——您可以從我們的資本、流動性、地位和資產負債表中看到這一點。所以我們已經做好準備了。但我們所做的一切都是為了能夠為我們的客戶提供無論順境或逆境的服務。我不會猜測未來會發生什麼。顯然，如果你看看我們的數字，你會發現我們有足夠的餘地和能力去解決幾乎所有的問題。

Excellent. Okay. Thank you for that.

出色的。好的。謝謝你。

This is different, okay? This is different. This is the global economy. And please read my chairman's letter. The most important thing to me is the Western world stays together economically when we get through all this and militarily to keep the world safe and free for democracy. That is the most important thing.

這不一樣，好嗎？這是不同的。這就是全球經濟。請閱讀我董事長的信。對我來說，最重要的是當我們度過這一切時，西方世界在經濟上保持團結，在軍事上保持團結，以維護世界安全和民主自由。這是最重要的事。

I really almost don't care fundamentally about what the economy does in the next two quarters. That isn't that important. We'll get through that. We've had recessions before and all that. It's the ultimate outcome.

我真的幾乎不關心未來兩季的經濟表現。那並不是那麼重要。我們會克服這個困難的。我們以前也經歷過經濟衰退等等。這是最終的結果。

What's the goal? How can we get there? And it's literally that. I mean -- and the China issue is a major issue. I don't know how that's going to turn out. We obviously have to follow the law of the land, but it's a significant change we've never seen in our lives.

目標是什麼？我們怎樣才能到達那裡？事實確實如此。我的意思是——中國問題是一個重大問題。我不知道結果會怎樣。我們顯然必須遵守國家法律，但這是我們一生中從未見過的重大變化。

Okay. Thank you so much for that. And yes, looking forward to the next four months and clarity coming. So then one for Jeremy. Question on the wholesale loans. I'm going into this because I noticed your average loan growth, I think it was running at about 2% year on year. And then end-of-period loans was up 5% and wholesale loans was up 7%.

好的。非常感謝。是的，期待接下來的四個月並期待未來的清晰。那麼，給傑里米一個。關於批發貸款的問題。我之所以討論這個問題，是因為我注意到你們的平均貸款成長率約為 2%。期末貸款增加了 5%，批發貸款增加了 7%。

So I'm just wondering if there was some line drawdowns at quarter end. And it's a broader question on just liquidity. Do you see your customers looking for more liquidity? Are they drawing down lines? And maybe if you could speak to liquidity in the front end of the market, that would be helpful too. Thank you.

所以我只是想知道季度末是否存在一些線路縮減。這是一個有關流動性的更廣泛的問題。您是否發現您的客戶正在尋求更多的流動性？他們正在畫線嗎？如果您能談談市場前端的流動性，那也會有所幫助。謝謝。

Yeah, it's a good question, Betsy. So a couple of things. One is, in our soundings of our wholesale clients during sort of the moments of peak uncertainty, we did hear them talking about wanting to focus on trying out liquidity. Interestingly, I actually asked the question like a day ago, whether we were seeing draws, meaningfully observable draws from clients. And the answer to that question was no, at least not yet.

是的，這是個好問題，貝琪。有幾件事。一是，在最不確定的時刻，我們在與批發客戶溝通時，確實聽到他們談到想要專注於嘗試流動性。有趣的是，我實際上在一天前就問過這個問題，我們是否看到了來自客戶的有意義的可觀察的吸引力。而這個問題的答案是否定的，至少現在還不是。

So I don't know what to make of that, but perhaps it suggests that we do not see that level of heightened anxiety that people are more just focusing on addressing their supply chain issues right now. Yeah. So on wholesale loans, beyond that, I don't think there's that much of a story. Now we're seeing a bit more growth and sort of like market loans opposed to traditional C&I loans in the current moment. But that's another hurdle there. Did you asked what did you ask also front end of the yield curve, liquidity?

所以我不知道該如何理解這一點，但也許這表明我們沒有看到人們現在更加關註解決供應鏈問題的那種高度焦慮。是的。因此，關於批發貸款，除此之外，我認為沒有太多值得關注的事情。現在，我們看到了更多的成長，有點像市場貸款，而不是傳統的 C&I 貸款。但這是另一個障礙。您是否問過殖利率曲線的前端，流動性？

Yes, just in money markets, Fed funds, the front end.

是的，僅在貨幣市場、聯邦基金和前端。

What we've heard from our markets colleagues is that that's actually functioning quite smoothly.

我們從市場同事那裡聽說，這實際上運作得相當順利。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Hey, Jamie, you just said on this call, there's quote deep recognition of flaws unquote by the new regulatory regime. And can you put -- you or Jeremy put some meat on the bones as far as what's an ideal scenario? You keep the safety and soundness of the system, but you read as much as red tape and bureaucracy as possible, how much could expenses potentially decline. I assume you pass on some of that to customers and you'd keep some of that, and the regulators would save money. So some meat on the bones about the potential concrete savings from deregulation.

嘿，傑米，你剛才在電話裡說，我們深刻體認到新監管制度的缺陷。您或傑里米能否具體描述一下​​理想情況？你保持系統的安全性和穩健性，但你盡可能多閱讀繁文縟節和官僚主義，費用就有可能下降多少。我認為你會將其中一部分轉嫁給客戶，並保留一部分，而監管機構則會節省金錢。因此，關於放鬆管制可能帶來的具體節省，我們有一些實質的內容。

But before that, the negative, which you highlight in the press release and the Chairman letter about the trade wars, Jamie, you went from trade wars get over to this week, say, do something. So just as far as the tariff journey, what were you initially expecting to what happened? And do you really think next earnings call will be through most of the uncertainty. Thanks.

但在此之前，傑米，您在新聞稿和主席信中強調了貿易戰的負面因素，您從貿易戰過渡到本週，並說要採取一些行動。那麼就關稅進程而言，您最初對發生的事情有何期待？您是否真的認為下一次收益電話會議將會解決大部分不確定性問題？謝謝。

Yeah. No, I don't think we'll be necessarily through all the uncertainty. I think you'll just know a lot more. And my quote was about to get over it. I wish I hadn't said it. I was specifically referring to tariffs relating to protecting national security.

是的。不，我認為我們不一定能度過所有的不確定性。我想你會了解更多。我的引言即將克服它。我希望我沒有說過這句話。我特別指的是與保護國家安全有關的關稅。

National security is paramount. All things should be subordinated to it. You may need tariffs to help fix some of the problems related to national security. National security is a small part of trade. And its rare earths, penicillin, medical ingredients, certain types of -- obviously, you've heard about semiconductors. That was my quote about. I did not change my view about it.

國家安全至關重要。一切事物都應服從它。您可能需要關稅來幫助解決一些與國家安全有關的問題。國家安全只是貿易的一小部分。還有稀土、青黴素、醫療成分、某些類型的——顯然，你聽說過半導體。這就是我的引言。我對此的看法沒有改變。

I would like to see the administration negotiate trade deal. I think they'll be good for everybody. And they want to do it too. And they've said they want to do it. They said they're having conversations with 70 or 80 different people. And so I do think if the regulators change regulations, it will free up capital and liquidity to finance the system.

我希望看到政府就貿易協議進行談判。我認為它們對每個人都有好處。他們也想這麼做。他們已經表示他們想這麼做。他們說他們正在與 70 或 80 個不同的人交談。因此我確實認為，如果監管機構改變法規，它將釋放資本和流動性來為該系統提供資金。

And I don't - I wouldn't expect an expense drawdown that you're going to see. There will be thousands -- hundreds of people maybe, but it's not going to be passed on. But it will reduce net-net the cost of liquidity and the cost of loans and the cost of mortgages if it's done right.

我不認為——我也不認為你們會看到費用減少。可能會有數千人，甚至數百人，但它不會被傳播。但如果做得正確，它將降低流動性成本、貸款成本和抵押貸款成本。

I specifically pointed out the mortgage issue in my chairman's letter this year about -- if they do some of these reforms, the cost of mortgages come down 70 basis points. If I were them, I'd be focusing on right now.

我在今年給董事長的信中特別指出了抵押貸款問題——如果他們進行一些改革，抵押貸款成本將下降 70 個基點。如果我是他們，我現在就會集中精力。

And you also mentioned hundreds of billions of dollars of extra lending, if you reduce the CET1 ratio, I guess, back down by one-fifth.

您還提到，如果將 CET1 比率降低五分之一，那麼將有數千億美元的額外貸款。

If you have to fix LCR, G-SIFI, CCAR, SLR and I think would free up hundreds of billions of dollars for JPMorgan annually of various types of lending to the system. Some would be market, some would be middle market loans, et cetera. And I pointed out, if you wanted to look at the big numbers, that loans to deposits are now 70% for the banking system large. That used to be 100%.

如果你必須修復 LCR、G-SIFI、CCAR、SLR，我認為每年將為摩根大通釋放數千億美元的各種類型的貸款給系統。有些是市場貸款，有些是中間市場貸款，等等。我指出，如果你想看大數字，你會發現銀行體系的貸款與存款比目前已達到 70%。以前這個比例是 100%。

And the reason for that is it's not just capital. It is also LCR. It is also G-SIFIs. And the question you should ask because you were very smart, Mike, is could you have the same -- and I believe you have a safer system, lend more money, have more liquidity, eliminate bank runs, eliminate what happen to the First Republic of Silicon Valley, and you could accomplish all of that with completely rational and thoughtful regulations. That's what I would like to see them do. I don't know what's going to happen.

而其原因不僅在於資本。它也是 LCR。它也是全球系統重要性金融機構 (G-SIFI)。麥克，因為你非常聰明，你應該問的問題是，你能否擁有同樣的——我相信你有一個更安全的系統，借出更多的錢，擁有更多的流動性，消除銀行擠兌，消除矽谷第一共和國發生的事情，你可以通過完全合理和深思熟慮的監管來實現所有這一切。這正是我希望看到他們所做的。我不知道會發生什麼事。

(inaudible) our NPLs in public and stuff like that. And so they should do that, just make a better system or you have the best in the world, we've kind of started to cripple it slowly. If you don't -- I'd say you look at these rules and regulations, see Europe. That's where we want to go. Let's just go there.

（聽不清楚）我們的不良貸款被公開等等。所以他們應該這樣做，建立一個更好的系統，或者說，你已經擁有了世界上最好的系統，我們已經開始慢慢削弱它了。如果你不這樣做——我建議你看看這些規則和規定，看看歐洲。那就是我們想要去的地方。我們就去那裡吧。

One short follow-up. Just first quarter, you mentioned good credit, good trading, good EPS. I'm not sure anyone cares. They're worried more about the things we're talking about here. But in terms of the risk of being an international company, an international US company, during trade wars. And I know JPMorgan is a firm that likes to partner with countries as well as communities and customers.

一個簡短的後續行動。就在第一季度，您提到了良好的信用、良好的交易、良好的每股盈餘。我不確定是否有人關心。他們更擔心我們在這裡談論的事情。但就貿易戰期間作為一家國際公司，一家國際化的美國公司的風險而言。我知道摩根大通是一家願意與國家、社區和客戶合作的公司。

So how do you think about that risk? How should we think about that risk? And hopefully, your voice is being heard to speed things along to whatever can be done, getting it done because you could be in the crosshairs at some point?

那麼您如何看待這種風險？我們該如何看待這種風險？希望您的聲音能夠被聽到，以便加快推進一切可以做的事情，並將其完成，因為您可能在某些時候處於危險之中？

Yeah, I honestly add that to the list of worries. We will be in the crosshairs. That's what's going to happen. And it's okay. We're deeply embedded in these other countries. People like us, but I do think some clients, or some countries will feel differently about American banks. And we'll just have to deal with that.

是的，我確實將其添加到擔憂清單中。我們將成為眾矢之的。這就是即將發生的事情。沒關係。我們深深紮根於這些其他國家。人們喜歡我們，但我確實認為一些客戶或一些國家對美國銀行的看法會有所不同。我們必須處理這個問題。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

Just one follow-up on this whole risk management/regulatory front. I see, I hear, and I agree, flawed regulatory system could be better. We've had massive volatility, the market plumbing has held in okay so far. And you and others have had order lines spectacular trading results.

這只是對整個風險管理/監管方面的一次後續跟進。我看見、聽到、同意，有缺陷的監管體係可以變得更好。我們經歷了巨大的波動，但到目前為止市場管道仍保持良好。而且您和其他人都取得了令人矚目的交易成果。

So has something changed? Are the systems better? Are they better able to hand it as your risk management, your people, the diversity of your platform better? Or are there still environments where not all volatility is good? Just curious to get your big picture. Thanks.

那麼有什麼變化嗎？系統是否更好？他們是否能夠更好地處理您的風險管理、您的人員以及您的平台的多樣性？或者是否仍然存在並非所有波動都是好的環境？只是好奇想了解你的整體情況。謝謝。

I mean maybe I'll start with that one, Glenn. So I guess I think that your points aren't mutually exclusive, meaning -- I mean, we're always continually improving the franchise. We've talked a lot about inward investment in all of our businesses, including markets. And so we try to be more complete. And invest in technology and work more closely with our clients.

我的意思是也許我會從那個開始，格倫。所以我認為你的觀點並不互相排斥，也就是說——我們一直在不斷改進特許經營權。我們已經多次討論過包括市場在內的所有業務的外來投資問題。因此我們努力使自己變得更加完整。並投資技術並與我們的客戶更緊密地合作。

So I'm sure we're kind of better at it than we were five years ago, as I think probably everyone is at the margin. I'm not sure that you can associate that with the current performance. I think this just happened to be very favorable conditions that we've managed very successfully.

因此，我確信我們在這方面比五年前做得更好，因為我認為可能每個人都處於邊緣狀態。我不確定您是否能將其與當前的表現聯繫起來。我認為這恰好是一個非常有利的條件，我們已經非常成功地管理了它。

And to your point, I think your specific question of like is there -- are there still forms of volatility that can be bad for the market's franchise? The answer to that question is definitely yes. When you have [gappy] volatility with no trading volume, people paralyze, clients unsure what to do, active managers struggling, those environments are bad.

關於您的觀點，我認為您的具體問題是—是否仍然存在對市場特許經營不利的波動形式？這個問題的答案肯定是肯定的。當出現[大幅]波動且沒有交易量時，人們就會陷入癱瘓，客戶不知道該做什麼，主動管理者陷入困境，這些環境很糟糕。

So people make fun of the kind of good volatility, bad volatility story, but we like it or not, it's real. And in the end, we just have to manage the risks and serve the clients. And as I said earlier, we're happy to see.

因此，人們會嘲笑這種好波動、壞波動的故事，但無論我們喜歡與否，它都是真實的。最後，我們只需管理風險並為客戶提供服務。正如我之前所說，我們很高興看到這一點。

I agree, Jeremy, I would add to that. Volatility leads to bigger bid-ask spreads, that all things being equal is better. And it leaves sometimes to higher volumes. So you've seen really high volumes in FX and interest rate swaps, a whole bunch of different things, treasuries. That's better. But as Jeremy pointed out, sometimes that kind of volatility leads to very low volumes.

我同意，傑里米，我想補充一點。波動性會導致買賣價差擴大，在其他條件相同的情況下，這是更好的選擇。有時，它的音量會更高。因此，您會看到外匯和利率掉期、一大堆不同的東西以及國債的交易量都非常高。那就更好了。但正如傑里米指出的那樣，有時這種波動會導致交易量非常低。

Like you see in DCM today, when you don't have these bond deals where you have less trading, when you have -- will have lower volumes in certain markets and stuff like that and how it all fills us through is almost impossible to tell.

就像您今天在 DCM 中看到的那樣，當您沒有這些債券交易時，您的交易量就會減少，當您有的時候 - 某些市場的交易量會較低，諸如此類的事情，而這一切對我們造成的影響幾乎是無法預料的。

But our folks do a great job, and we're here to help our clients. So we know that volumes can go up or down and rates go up or down and that. But the plumbing of the system, I would say the plumbing worked well during COVID too. I mean, it wasn't the plumbing that was a problem. And wasn't even a problem to go back to some of the real crisis we've had. So -- but you always worry about that kind of thing, make sure it stays true.

但我們的員工做得很好，我們在這裡為我們的客戶提供幫助。因此我們知道交易量可能上升或下降，利率可能上升或下降。但對於系統的管道，我想說在 COVID 期間管道也運作良好。我的意思是，問題不在於管道。甚至回到我們曾經遇到的一些真正的危機都不是問題。所以——但你總是擔心這種事情，確保它是真實的。

And I do think that the fact that the revenue performance in this quarter is good shouldn't make us lose focus on the importance of the larger fixes around financial resource deployment by regulated banks to supporting the capital markets ecosystem. Everything Jamie's been talking about SLR, LCR, ILST, G-SIB, (inaudible) bank RWA, the whole panoply of items which interacts, as we've often talked about and is miscalibrated. It will at the margin make it harder for banks to serve a stabilizing function in a difficult moment. So that remains quite important as a policy priority.

我確實認為，本季收入表現良好這一事實不應讓我們忽視受監管銀行在金融資源部署方面進行更大規模的修復對支持資本市場生態系統的重要性。Jamie 一直在談論的有關 SLR、LCR、ILST、G-SIB、（聽不清楚）銀行 RWA 的所有內容，所有這些項目都是相互作用的，正如我們經常談論的那樣，並且被錯誤校準了。這在某種程度上會使銀行在困難時期更難發揮穩定作用。因此，作為一項政策重點，這仍然非常重要。

That's a great point. Thanks for that. Appreciate it.

這是一個很好的觀點。謝謝。非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions have been asked and answered, but I guess I'll ask about costs since nobody has asked it. But I guess how should we think about the cost structure and any sort of cost optimization efforts. If you do see a revenue slowdown, but not necessarily a severe downturn.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我的大部分問題都已經被問過並得到了回答，但我想我會問費用問題，因為沒有人問過。但我想我們應該如何考慮成本結構和任何形式的成本優化工作。如果你確實看到收入放緩，但不一定是嚴重的下滑。

I think you do have in the $95 billion guidance. You do have good amount of growth penciled in for investing in bankers and branches and tech and marketing. And I guess, do you -- does it make sense or what conditions would it make sense for you to maybe pull back on some of these investments? Or do you think that's just completely shortsighted unless we see a real significant downturn in the economy?

我認為你確實有 950 億美元的指導價。透過投資銀行家、分行、技術和行銷，你確實可以實現相當可觀的成長。我想，這是否合理，或者在什麼條件下您可能會撤回部分投資？或者您認為，除非我們看到經濟出現真正嚴重的衰退，否則這完全是短視的？

Yeah. So you've slightly answered your own question there so, but it is some less a good question. So let me unpack it a little bit. So the way I think about it is, there are some elements of the expense base, which automatically reset as a function of the business environment. So we talk about those as volume and revenue-related expenses.

是的。所以你已經稍微回答了你自己的問題，但這不是一個好問題。讓我稍微解釋一下。所以我的想法是，費用基礎中的一些元素會根據商業環境自動重置。因此，我們將其稱為與數量和收入相關的費用。

So you will see those come down as a function of the environment. It's also true that there are consumably certain investment business cases, which depending on how the environment changes, could no longer make sense analyzed in the same way that we analyze them originally, i.e., through the lens of their ability to generate long-term shareholder value through a long investment cycle. And so if for whatever reason the environment changes in such a way as to make certain of those investments less compelling, we would obviously adjust.

因此，你會看到它們隨著環境的變化而改變。確實，有些投資業務案例可能不再有意義，這取決於環境如何變化，如果按照我們最初分析它們的方式進行分析，即透過它們在長期投資週期中創造長期股東價值的能力來進行分析。因此，如果出於某種原因，環境發生變化，使得某些投資變得不那麼引人注目，我們顯然會做出調整。

Of course, the thing that we're not going to do is stop investing in things that we still think are very compelling to our traditional long-term investment lens simply for the purposes of achieving a cosmetic reduction in expenses in an environment where you may or may not have a reduction in revenues for unrelated reasons. As you will know, that's just not how we run the company.

當然，我們不會停止投資那些我們仍然認為對我們的傳統長期投資視角非常有吸引力的東西，而僅僅是為了在可能或可能不會因為無關原因而減少收入的環境中實現表面上的開支減少。正如你們所知，這並不是我們經營公司的方式。

This quarter, as it happens, a question you might have is how are you managing to keep your guidance the same with what you're saying about, for example, the investment banking outlook. But it's worth noting that investment banking performance this quarter was actually fine. As you know, markets performance was very strong.

本季度，您可能會遇到的一個問題是，您如何設法使您的指導與您所說的投資銀行前景保持一致。但值得注意的是，本季投資銀行業務的表現其實還不錯。如您所知，市場表現非常強勁。

And there are also some ups and downs in there, I should know, including the fact that there is some sensitivity to the expense base to the strength of the dollar or weakness in this case. And while some of that is offset in revenue, it's a little noisy, so that's a factor as well. It's small, but I'm just highlighting that there's some slightly nonobvious things that are nonstrategic (multiple speakers)

我應該知道，這其中也存在一些起伏，包括在這種情況下，費用基礎對美元的強弱有一定的敏感性。雖然其中一部分可以透過收入來抵消，但它有點吵，所以這也是一個因素。它很小，但我只是想強調一下，有一些不太明顯、非策略性的事情（多位發言者）

It's a management thing because I think it's very important. And I always talk about good expenses and bad expenses and the good expenses of the bankers and branches that we think will pay off. But they're also bad expenses, which I would put in the category of bureaucracy, lack of efficiency, things you don't need to do. And you can imagine if you go to, if you read my Chairman's letter, the last section is called Management Learnings. And if you look at companies that over time fail, it's almost always bureaucracy, complacency, arrogance, and lack of attention to detail.

這是管理問題，因為我認為這非常重要。我總是談論好的支出和壞的支出，以及我們認為會帶來回報的銀行家和分行的好支出。但它們也是不好的開支，我將其歸類為官僚主義、缺乏效率以及不需要做的事情。你可以想像一下，如果你去讀我的董事長的信，最後一部分叫做「管理學習」。如果你觀察一下那些隨著時間的推移而失敗的公司，你會發現，它們幾乎總是因為官僚主義、自滿、傲慢和缺乏對細節的關注而失敗。

And so there is -- we're making a -- I shouldn't say it, but I'm mad at myself for not doing it sooner to spend a little more time that after COVID, that add-up, the buildup in headcount, the buildup in rules and regulations, the people working or not working from home, after all of those things, we just think there's more efficiency here and I think some of that.

所以，我們正在做——我不應該這麼說，但我對自己很生氣，沒有早點做，在新冠疫情之後花更多的時間，這些累積，員工人數的增加，規章制度的增加，在家工作或不工作的人，在所有這些事情之後，我們只是認為這裡的效率更高了，我認為其中有一些。

And Mike Mayo mentioned the thing about regulation, he is right, there will be reductions in cost because rules and regulations will be modified a little bit. I mean, we -- I pointed out resolution recovery, which is a complete waste of time, is 80,000 pages long. It'll never happen that way. CCAR, which is virtually a waste of time, is 20,000 pages long.

麥克·梅奧提到了有關監管的問題，他是對的，成本將會降低，因為規則和條例會進行一些修改。我的意思是，我們——我指出分辨率恢復完全是浪費時間，長達 80,000 頁。絕對不會發生這樣的事。CCAR長達2萬頁，實際上是在浪費時間。

Okay, we report 1 trillion -- I think it's 1 trillion bits of data every day or something like that to the all the various regulators and stuff like that. There is this excessive cost built up that we that hopefully we can get rid of and we reduce the cost of the system, but it's not the new branches.

好的，我們向各個監管機構等報告 1 兆——我認為是每天 1 兆位元數據或類似的數據。我們希望能夠消除這些過高的成本，並降低系統成本，但這並不是新的分店。

And the folks here are working on. We call it streamlining. (inaudible) got a war room going on it. We already have a significant amount of saves and stuff like that. So, and we're having fun doing it. To me it's like exercising and eating your spinach. It's what we should be doing. We haven't done it for a while, so, and I apologize to my shareholders for not having done this a little bit.

這裡的人們正在努力。我們稱之為精簡。 （聽不清楚）有一個作戰室正在處理此事。我們已經擁有大量保存和類似的東西。所以，我們很高興這麼做。對我來說，這就像是一邊運動一邊吃菠菜。這是我們應該做的。我們已經有一段時間沒有這樣做了，因此，我為沒有這樣做向我的股東們表示歉意。

Okay. That's very clear, very helpful. Thank you.

好的。這非常清楚，非常有幫助。謝謝。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。現在您可以斷開連接並享受剩餘的美好時光。