瞻博網絡 (JNPR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Juniper Networks Q1 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加瞻博網絡 2023 年第一季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在錄製此會議。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Jess Lubert. You may begin.

我現在將會議轉交給主持人 Jess Lubert。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to our first quarter 2023 conference call. Joining me today are Rami Rahim, Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Miller, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，運營商。下午好，歡迎來到我們 2023 年第一季度的電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Rami Rahim；和首席財務官 Ken Miller。

Today's call contains certain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results might differ materially. These risks are discussed in our most recent 10-K, the press release furnished with our 8-K filed today, the CFO commentary posted on the Investor Relations portion of our website today and in our other SEC filings. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and Juniper undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

今天的電話會議包含某些基於我們當前預期的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。這些風險在我們最近的 10-K、我們今天提交的 8-K 的新聞稿、今天在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布的首席財務官評論以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他文件中進行了討論。我們的前瞻性陳述僅適用於今天，瞻博網絡不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial results. Reconciliation information can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website under Financial Reports. Commentary on why we consider non-GAAP information a useful view of the company's financial results is included in today's press release.

我們今天的討論將包括非 GAAP 財務結果。可以在我們網站的“財務報告”下的“投資者關係”部分找到對賬信息。今天的新聞稿中包含關於我們為何將非 GAAP 信息視為了解公司財務業績的有用信息的評論。

Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question so that as many people as possible who would like to ask a question have a chance.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將接受提問。我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題上，以便盡可能多的人有機會提問。

With that, I will now hand the call over to Rami.

有了這個，我現在將把電話交給拉米。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss our Q1 2023 results. We delivered better-than-expected results during the first quarter, with total revenue of $1.372 billion, growing 17% year-over-year and exceeding the midpoint of our guidance. Total product sales grew 23% year-over-year, and we saw year-over-year growth across all customer solutions and all geographies. Profitability was also strong in Q1 as our non-GAAP gross and operating margin both exceeded expectations, resulting in non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.48, above the high end of our quarterly guidance range.

大家下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。我們在第一季度取得了好於預期的業績，總收入為 13.72 億美元，同比增長 17%，超過了我們指引的中點。產品總銷售額同比增長 23%，我們看到所有客戶解決方案和所有地區的同比增長。第一季度的盈利能力也很強勁，因為我們的非 GAAP 毛利率和營業利潤率均超出預期，導致非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.48 美元，高於我們季度指導範圍的上限。

These results reflect healthy customer demand for our solutions as well as the improvements we're seeing in the availability of supply. Our teams continue to execute extremely well, and we remain confident in our positioning from a technology, go-to-market and supply chain perspective to capitalize on our customers' digital transformation and cloudification initiatives that are likely to further increase network requirements over the next several years.

這些結果反映了客戶對我們解決方案的健康需求以及我們在供應可用性方面看到的改進。我們的團隊繼續執行得非常好，我們仍然對我們從技術、上市和供應鏈角度的定位充滿信心，以利用我們客戶的數字化轉型和雲化計劃，這些計劃可能會在未來進一步增加網絡需求幾年。

As expected, total orders softened during the March quarter, declining more than 30% year-over-year. I do not believe this reflects true underlying demand due to our customers' consumption that previously placed early orders and the reduced need for new early orders as lead times have improved. With that said, we believe customer ordering patterns are normalizing and we would expect to see a return to more traditional seasonal patterns on a sequential basis starting this quarter. This would imply that our year-over-year order declines should improve on a go-forward basis, and return to year-over-year growth potentially as soon as Q4 of this year.

正如預期的那樣，總訂單在 3 月季度出現下滑，同比下降超過 30%。我不認為這反映了真實的潛在需求，因為我們的客戶之前提前下了訂單，並且隨著交貨時間的縮短，對新的提前訂單的需求減少了。話雖如此，我們相信客戶訂購模式正在正常化，我們預計從本季度開始將按順序回歸到更傳統的季節性模式。這意味著我們的同比訂單下降應該會在前進的基礎上有所改善，並有可能在今年第四季度恢復同比增長。

From a vertical basis, I remain extremely encouraged by the momentum we're seeing in our enterprise business, which grew nearly 30% year-over-year in Q1, with double-digit revenue growth in both the campus and branch and the data center. We also saw strong momentum in the channels where deal registration grew by more than 30% year-over-year, and in the commercial market, where orders grew by 40% year-over-year. As of the March quarter, the Enterprise accounted for more than 40% of our total revenue and represented both our largest and our fastest-growing vertical for a second consecutive quarter. Our Enterprise campus and branch business performed exceptionally well in Q1, with revenue growing nearly 50% year-over-year. Our customers are clearly recognizing the value of our cloud-native AI-driven architecture, which helps them optimize user experiences from client to cloud and minimize operating costs through proactive automation.

從縱向來看，我對我們在企業業務中看到的勢頭感到非常鼓舞，該業務在第一季度同比增長近 30%，園區和分支機構以及數據中心的收入均實現兩位數增長.我們還看到交易登記同比增長超過 30% 的渠道和商業市場的強勁勢頭，訂單同比增長 40%。截至 3 月季度，企業業務占我們總收入的 40% 以上，連續第二個季度成為我們最大和增長最快的垂直行業。我們的企業園區和分支機構業務在第一季度表現出色，收入同比增長近 50%。我們的客戶清楚地認識到我們的雲原生 AI 驅動架構的價值，這有助於他們優化從客戶端到雲端的用戶體驗，並通過主動自動化將運營成本降至最低。

Revenue from the Mistified segment of our business, which is defined as products driven by Mist AI grew by nearly 60% year-over-year in the Q1 time frame with new logos increasing by nearly 30% year-over-year. WiFi momentum continues to outpace the market and we are seeing record pull-through of wired switching as well as increased attach of our AI-driven SD-WAN offerings.

我們業務的 Mistified 部分的收入被定義為由 Mist AI 驅動的產品，在第一季度的時間框架內同比增長近 60%，新徽標同比增長近 30%。 WiFi 勢頭繼續超過市場，我們看到有線交換的創紀錄拉動以及我們人工智能驅動的 SD-WAN 產品的增加。

Important wins this quarter included a top-tier U.S. bank, one of the largest U.S. retailers, a leading global logistics provider and a top pharmaceutical company just to name a few. Not to be overlooked, our Apstra pipeline continued to build as new logos more than doubled on a year-over-year basis and we experienced strong hardware pull-through for every dollar of software, which we view as a positive indicator for our Enterprise data center prospects.

本季度的重要勝利包括一家頂級美國銀行、美國最大的零售商之一、一家領先的全球物流供應商和一家頂級製藥公司等等。不容忽視的是，我們的 Apstra 管道繼續建設，因為新徽標同比增長了一倍多，而且我們的每一美元軟件都經歷了強大的硬件拉動，我們認為這是我們企業數據的積極指標中心前景。

Given our level of portfolio differentiation, balanced against our relatively modest share in the large markets where we compete, I expect us to grow both Enterprise revenue and orders during the year even in a more challenged macro environment. Our service provider business also performed well in Q1 due in large part to the timing of supply which enabled us to fulfill prior orders with some of our larger Tier 1 Service Provider customers, particularly for our MX and PTX platforms. While revenue with these customers is likely to remain lumpy on a quarter-to-quarter basis, I'm optimistic about our ability to grow this business during the year based on the momentum we're seeing around customer 400-gig wins, many of which remain large opportunities in the early stages of deployment.

鑑於我們的投資組合差異化水平，與我們在競爭的大型市場中相對較小的份額相平衡，我預計即使在更具挑戰性的宏觀環境中，我們今年的企業收入和訂單也會增長。我們的服務提供商業務在第一季度也表現良好，這在很大程度上歸功於供應時間，這使我們能夠完成與一些較大的一級服務提供商客戶的先前訂單，特別是我們的 MX 和 PTX 平台。雖然這些客戶的收入可能會按季度保持波動，但我對我們在這一年中發展這項業務的能力持樂觀態度，因為我們看到圍繞客戶 400 場胜利的勢頭，其中許多這在部署的早期階段仍然存在巨大的機會。

We also continue to see strong early interest in our Cloud Metro portfolio, led by our Paragon Automation suite. In fact, our ACX7K platform saw another quarter of triple-digit year-over-year order growth, with further enhancements to this portfolio expected later this year and next. We expect momentum within this business to build through the year and become more material to revenue in 2024 and beyond.

在我們的 Paragon Automation 套件的帶領下，我們還繼續看到人們對我們的 Cloud Metro 產品組合產生了濃厚的早期興趣。事實上，我們的 ACX7K 平台又實現了四分之一的三位數訂單同比增長，預計今年晚些時候和明年將進一步增強該產品組合。我們預計該業務的勢頭將在今年增強，並在 2024 年及以後對收入產生更大的影響。

I'd like to acknowledge we continue to see accounts across each of our customer verticals more closely scrutinizing budgets and project deployment time lines due to the macro uncertainties that are happening around the world. While order cancellations continue to remain extremely low, as supply improves, we are seeing more customers reschedule delivery dates to better match current project time line. This is proving to be particularly true in the cloud vertical, where certain customers are digesting prior purchases and we saw a series of projects pushed to future periods during the March quarter. While these delays may negatively impact our ability to grow our Cloud business in the current year, based on the conversations we've had with many of these accounts, we're confident these delays are a function of timing and remain positive regarding our long-term growth outlook in Cloud.

我想承認，由於世界各地發生的宏觀不確定性，我們繼續看到我們每個客戶垂直領域的客戶更仔細地審查預算和項目部署時間表。雖然取消訂單的情況仍然非常少，但隨著供應的改善，我們看到越來越多的客戶重新安排交貨日期，以更好地匹配當前的項目時間表。事實證明，在雲垂直領域尤其如此，某些客戶正在消化之前的購買，我們看到一系列項目在 3 月季度被推遲到未來時期。雖然這些延遲可能會對我們在本年度發展雲業務的能力產生負面影響，但根據我們與其中許多客戶的對話，我們相信這些延遲是時間的函數，並且對我們的長期保持樂觀 -雲的長期增長前景。

In summary, I remain confident in our strategy, and optimistic regarding our ability to navigate market uncertainty. My enthusiasm is fueled by our continued Enterprise momentum, the success we're seeing around Service Provider 400 gig deployments, the ongoing strength of our backlog, which remains well above historical levels and the improvements we're seeing in supply. Longer term, I continue to see attractive growth opportunities in the cloud, where we already maintain a meaningful footprint and remain closely engaged with many of these customers on potential new opportunities, both in the wide area and the data center, that could present additional growth drivers.

總之，我對我們的戰略充滿信心，並對我們應對市場不確定性的能力持樂觀態度。我的熱情來自於我們持續的企業發展勢頭、我們在服務提供商 400 gig 部署方面看到的成功、我們積壓的持續實力（仍遠高於歷史水平）以及我們在供應方面看到的改進。從長遠來看，我繼續在雲中看到有吸引力的增長機會，我們已經在雲中保持了重要的足跡，並與其中許多客戶保持密切合作，以尋找廣域和數據中心的潛在新機會，這可能會帶來額外的增長司機。

Finally, I remain encouraged by the improved diversity of our business, which is lessening our sensitivity to any one customer or vertical, and enabling us to navigate pockets of weakness in the market by pivoting resources to the greatest areas of opportunity.

最後，我仍然對我們業務多元化的改善感到鼓舞，這降低了我們對任何一個客戶或垂直市場的敏感性，並使我們能夠通過將資源轉移到最大的機會領域來應對市場的薄弱環節。

Based on these dynamics, coupled with our Q1 actuals and expectations for Q2, we are raising our full year revenue outlook and currently expect to deliver at least 9% growth for the year. We continue to remain focused on delivering improved profitability and expect to deliver greater than 100 basis points of operating margin improvement in 2023.

基於這些動態，再加上我們第一季度的實際情況和對第二季度的預期，我們正在上調全年收入預期，目前預計全年將實現至少 9% 的增長。我們繼續專注於提高盈利能力，並預計到 2023 年營業利潤率將提高 100 個基點以上。

I will now turn the call over to Ken, who will discuss our quarterly financial results in more detail.

我現在將電話轉給肯，他將更詳細地討論我們的季度財務業績。

Thank you, Rami, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start by discussing our first quarter results, then provide some color on our outlook. We ended the first quarter of 2023 with $1.372 billion in revenue, above the midpoint of our guidance and up 17% year-over-year. We delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.48, which is above the guidance range, driven by the higher-than-expected revenue and gross margin.

謝謝拉米，大家下午好。我將首先討論我們的第一季度業績，然後提供一些關於我們前景的顏色。截至 2023 年第一季度，我們的收入為 13.72 億美元，高於我們指引的中點，同比增長 17%。在高於預期的收入和毛利率的推動下，我們實現了 0.48 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，高於指導範圍。

From a customer solution perspective, we saw year-over-year revenue growth in all areas. AI-Driven Enterprise led the way with revenue growth of 48%, Automated WAN solutions revenue grew 21% and Cloud-Ready Data Center revenue increased 3%.

從客戶解決方案的角度來看，我們看到所有領域的收入都同比增長。 AI 驅動型企業收入增長 48%，自動化 WAN 解決方案收入增長 21%，雲就緒數據中心收入增長 3%。

Looking at our revenue by vertical, on a year-over-year basis, Enterprise increased 29%, Service Provider increased 28% and Cloud decreased 14%. Total software and related services revenue was $232 million, which was an increase of 2% year-over-year. Annual recurring revenue, or ARR, was $293 million and grew 39% year-over-year. Deferred revenue from our SaaS and software license subscriptions grew 68% year-over-year. We remain confident in our outlook for total software growth and ARR growth.

按垂直方向看我們的收入，與去年同期相比，企業增長 29%，服務提供商增長 28%，雲下降 14%。軟件及相關服務總收入為 2.32 億美元，同比增長 2%。年度經常性收入 (ARR) 為 2.93 億美元，同比增長 39%。我們的 SaaS 和軟件許可訂閱的遞延收入同比增長 68%。我們對整體軟件增長和 ARR 增長的前景充滿信心。

Total security revenue was $182 million, up 13% from the first quarter of last year due to the timing of shipments related to improved supply. In reviewing our top 10 customers for the quarter, 5 were Service Providers, 4 were Cloud and 1 was an Enterprise. Our top 10 customers accounted for 30% of total revenue as compared to 32% in Q1 2022.

安全總收入為 1.82 億美元，比去年第一季度增長 13%，這是由於與改善供應相關的出貨時間。在回顧我們本季度的前 10 大客戶時，5 家是服務提供商，4 家是雲，1 家是企業。我們的前 10 大客戶佔總收入的 30%，而 2022 年第一季度為 32%。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 57.8%, which was above the midpoint of our guidance, primarily driven by favorable customer mix and higher revenue volume. While supply has improved for the majority of our products, we continue to experience supply constraints for certain components, and supply chain costs remain elevated. If not for those elevated supply chain costs, we estimate that we would have posted a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 59%.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 57.8%，高於我們指引的中點，這主要是由於有利的客戶組合和更高的收入量。雖然我們大多數產品的供應有所改善，但我們繼續遇到某些組件的供應限制，供應鏈成本仍然很高。如果不是因為供應鏈成本上升，我們估計我們的非 GAAP 毛利率約為 59%。

Non-GAAP operating expenses increased 10% year-over-year and 3% sequentially, primarily due to headcount-related costs. Non-GAAP operating margin was 14.8% for the quarter, which was above our expectations, driven by higher revenue and better-than-expected gross margin. As Rami mentioned, bookings were down more than 30% year-over-year in the first quarter. As a reminder, in Q1 2022, we were still getting a lot of early orders as customers were dealing with supply constraints and extended lead times.

非 GAAP 運營費用同比增長 10%，環比增長 3%，這主要是由於與員工人數相關的成本。本季度非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 14.8%，高於我們的預期，這是受收入增加和毛利率好於預期的推動。正如拉米所說，第一季度的預訂量同比下降了 30% 以上。提醒一下，在 2022 年第一季度，由於客戶正在處理供應限制和交貨時間延長的問題，我們仍然收到很多早期訂單。

In Q1 2022, our product orders were over $1.1 billion. Now customers are consuming those early orders and are no longer placing early orders as supply constraints have improved and lead times are shortening. This combination is resulting in a year-over-year decline in bookings, which we expect to moderate going forward.

2022 年第一季度，我們的產品訂單超過 11 億美元。現在，客戶正在消費這些早期訂單，並且由於供應限制有所改善並且交貨時間正在縮短，因此不再下早期訂單。這種組合導致預訂量同比下降，我們預計未來會有所緩和。

Our backlog remains elevated but declined by more than $350 million due to improvements in supply and order patterns normalizing. Due to the continuation of these factors, we expect backlog to further decline in 2023, but remain elevated relative to historical levels exiting the year.

由於供應改善和訂單模式正常化，我們的積壓訂單仍然很高，但減少了超過 3.5 億美元。由於這些因素的持續存在，我們預計積壓訂單將在 2023 年進一步減少，但相對於今年的歷史水平仍處於較高水平。

Cash flows from operations was $192 million in the quarter. We paid $71 million in dividends, reflecting a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share. We also repurchased $140 million worth of shares in the quarter. We exited the quarter with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of approximately $1.2 billion.

本季度運營現金流為 1.92 億美元。我們支付了 7100 萬美元的股息，反映了每股 0.22 美元的季度股息。我們還在本季度回購了價值 1.4 億美元的股票。本季度結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額約為 12 億美元。

I'm very pleased with our financial performance in the first quarter. It is a testament to our team's dedication and commitment to delivering excellence.

我對我們第一季度的財務表現感到非常滿意。這證明了我們團隊對提供卓越服務的奉獻精神和承諾。

Now I would like to provide some color on our guidance, which you can find detailed in the CFO commentary available on our Investor Relations website. At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect second quarter revenue of $1.410 billion, which is an % growth year-over-year. Our confidence is driven by the strength of our demand forecast, our elevated backlog and an improved supply outlook. Second quarter non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 58%. We expect second quarter non-GAAP operating expenses to be flat sequentially.

現在我想為我們的指導提供一些色彩，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上的首席財務官評論中找到詳細信息。在我們指引的中點，我們預計第二季度收入為 14.10 億美元，同比增長 %。我們的信心來自我們強勁的需求預測、我們增加的積壓訂單和改善的供應前景。第二季度非 GAAP 毛利率預計約為 58%。我們預計第二季度非 GAAP 運營費用將持平。

Turning to our expectations for the rest of 2023. With the order and backlog visibility we have and our current expectations for supply, we are raising our full year revenue guidance from at least 8% to at least 9% growth. This increase in our revenue expectation reflects the Q1 overachievement and the expectations embedded within our Q2 guidance. For the remainder of 2023, we expect to see sequential revenue growth more in line with normal seasonal patterns. However, the degree of seasonality will be impacted by availability of supply and the timing of customer-requested delivery dates.

談到我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的預期。根據我們的訂單和積壓可見性以及我們目前對供應的預期，我們將全年收入預期從至少 8% 提高到至少 9%。我們收入預期的增加反映了第一季度的超額完成以及我們第二季度指導中的預期。在 2023 年剩餘時間裡，我們預計收入的連續增長將更符合正常的季節性模式。但是，季節性程度將受到供應可用性和客戶要求的交貨日期時間的影響。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to slightly expand to approximately 58% in 2023. This is above the prior guidance of flat to slightly up versus 57.4% in 2022. However, gross margin results will depend on revenue mix and the future trajectory of supply chain costs. With this in mind, we expect non-GAAP operating margin to expand by greater than 100 basis points on a full year basis. Our non-GAAP EPS is expected to grow double digits on a full year basis. Finally, I'm pleased to announce we have declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share to be paid this quarter to stockholders of record.

我們預計 2023 年非美國通用會計準則毛利率將小幅擴大至約 58%。這高於之前持平至小幅上升的指引，而 2022 年為 57.4%。然而，毛利率結果將取決於收入組合和未來的供應軌跡鏈成本。考慮到這一點，我們預計全年非 GAAP 營業利潤率將增長超過 100 個基點。我們的非 GAAP 每股收益預計全年將增長兩位數。最後，我很高興地宣布，我們已宣布本季度將向登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.22 美元的季度現金股息。

In closing, I would like to thank our team for their continued dedication and commitment to Juniper's success, especially in this dynamic environment.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊為瞻博網絡的成功所做出的不懈努力和承諾，尤其是在這個充滿活力的環境中。

Now I would like to open the call for questions.

現在我想打開問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess the question I really have is around the order decline that you've seen of about 30%. It's obviously notable here. Could you just touch on what do the order trends look like across the segments? I suspect there's some variance there. And then maybe just related to that, I think the backlog number, right, now might be around $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion. What do you think the normalized level looks like? What is the normalized level for backlog in a post-COVID world?

我想我真正的問題是關於您看到的大約 30% 的訂單下降。這裡顯然值得注意。您能否談談各細分市場的訂單趨勢如何？我懷疑那裡有一些差異。然後可能與此相關，我認為積壓數量，對，現在可能約為 16 億美元，17 億美元。您認為標準化水平是什麼樣的？在後 COVID 世界中，積壓的標準化水平是多少？

Yes. So from an order decline perspective, I would want to remind you that it really is about the comparison. So a year ago, we were still receiving a lot of early orders. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, a year ago, the orders were over $1.1 billion. Now what's happening is customers are actually receiving those orders and are no longer placing early orders as lead times are now coming in. So you're really seeing last year the orders were actually greater than real demand, if you will. This year, as we normalize, they're less than what I would say is real demand as they're leveraging what they already booked and no longer booking early orders. So that's why you're seeing those year-on-year declines.

是的。所以從訂單下降的角度來看，我想提醒你，這真的是關於比較。所以一年前，我們仍然收到很多早期訂單。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，一年前，訂單超過 11 億美元。現在正在發生的事情是客戶實際上正在接收這些訂單並且不再提前下訂單，因為交貨時間現在正在到來。所以你真的看到去年的訂單實際上大於實際需求，如果你願意的話。今年，正如我們常態化的那樣，他們比我所說的實際需求要少，因為他們正在利用他們已經預訂的東西並且不再預訂提前訂單。這就是為什麼你會看到同比下降的原因。

From a vertical perspective, we did see a slight decline in Enterprise, a very slight decline there. The majority of the client was in Service Provider and Cloud as those were the ones that were having the more normalization required compared to prior bookings. And I would say, in particular, in Q1, we did see Cloud was our weakest vertical from an orders perspective for some of the reasons that Rami mentioned in his prepared remarks.

從縱向的角度來看，我們確實看到企業略有下降，非常輕微的下降。大多數客戶來自服務提供商和雲，因為與之前的預訂相比，這些客戶需要更多的規範化。我要說的是，特別是在第一季度，由於拉米在他準備好的發言中提到的一些原因，我們確實看到從訂單的角度來看雲是我們最薄弱的垂直領域。

On the backlog perspective, we definitely expect to exit the year at elevated levels. I would say, more than twice what we normally were from a backlog perspective pre-pandemic. So we used to be around $400 million, give or take, a little bit. I expect to exit north of $800 million, more than double normal levels as we close the year out.

從積壓的角度來看，我們絕對希望今年能以更高的水平結束。我會說，從大流行前的積壓角度來看，是我們通常的兩倍多。所以我們過去大約有 4 億美元，有一點點讓步或索取。我預計退出時將超過 8 億美元，是我們年底時正常水平的兩倍多。

Next question comes from Tim Long with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tim Long。

I was hoping you could just dig into the Cloud and the push out there a little bit. Maybe one, just keeping on the orders. As those push out into later periods, what do you think impact that will have on future period orders?

我希望你能深入了解雲並向外推一點。也許一個，只是遵守命令。隨著這些產品進入後期，您認為這會對未來的周期訂單產生什麼影響？

And then anything you could tell us secondly on kind of products or technologies or any other tidbits on why these pushouts are happening? Is it just a straight digestion, you think it's happening across the board? Or anything more in your pieces of the network with the larger players?

然後你可以告訴我們關於產品或技術的種類，或者關於為什麼會發生這些推出的任何其他花絮？這只是一種直接的消化，你認為它正在全面發生嗎？或者在你的網絡中與更大的玩家有更多的東西？

Yes. Let me take that, Tim. So first, I want to highlight that in Q1, what we saw mostly was a function of our ability to ship products that our customers in the Cloud segment wanted. Your question, I think, is more around sort of the demand dynamics in the Cloud. And on that, I'd say that there definitely is a bit more scrutiny of certain projects. There were some projects that did move out in time. It's not specific to any one customer. It's not even specific to the Tier 1 hyperscale cloud provider. I would say it's a little bit broader than that.

是的。蒂姆，讓我接受吧。首先，我想強調的是，在第一季度，我們看到的主要是我們交付云領域客戶想要的產品的能力。我認為，您的問題更多是圍繞雲中的需求動態。就此而言，我想說的是，對某些項目肯定會有更多的審查。有些項目確實及時搬走了。它不特定於任何一個客戶。它甚至不特定於第 1 層超大規模雲提供商。我會說它比那更廣泛一點。

Having said all that, I want to emphasize that the projects that we have been engaged in around 400-gig upgrades, for example, data center interconnect, data center fabric, pluggable optics, DR, DR-plus type of use cases remain intact. I mean I have not seen project cancellations in cloud. I've only seen an adjustment in the timing of those projects, which is sort of impacting the demand environment in the Cloud segment. So I expect that, that -- sort of that impact to last for the next few quarters, but I do fully expect that it will recover.

話雖如此，我想強調的是，我們一直在進行大約 400 兆升級的項目，例如數據中心互連、數據中心結構、可插拔光學、DR、DR-plus 類型的用例保持不變。我的意思是我還沒有看到雲中的項目取消。我只看到這些項目的時間安排有所調整，這在一定程度上影響了雲領域的需求環境。所以我預計，那種影響會持續到接下來的幾個季度，但我確實完全希望它會恢復。

And from a revenue perspective, I'll just reiterate what Rami said, the quarterly results is largely due to just timing of supply and timing of deployments. We do expect Cloud revenue to recover from Q1 levels. I don't think the Q1 levels for Cloud is going to be the new norm. You saw a little bit of a shift from a supply and timing of projects towards Service Provider in Q1 with a large growth in Service Provider. Cloud was down more than expected in Q1. That will normalize as we proceed to burn through the backlog and demand.

從收入的角度來看，我只想重申拉米所說的，季度業績主要取決於供應時間和部署時間。我們確實預計雲收入將從第一季度的水平恢復。我認為雲的 Q1 級別不會成為新常態。隨著服務提供商的大幅增長，您看到第一季度從項目供應和時間安排向服務提供商的轉變。雲計算在第一季度的下降幅度超過預期。隨著我們繼續解決積壓和需求，這將正常化。

The next question comes from Paul Silverstein with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Paul Silverstein 和 TD Cowen。

Returning this question -- to this issue on customer delays and downsizing if not cancellations, Ken and Rami, hoping -- I was hoping for some more insight. Beyond Tim's question, just focused on Cloud, what are you seeing over time? And what are you seeing real time in terms of those delays, the increased scrutiny, how severe is it? And how does that compare to 90 days ago? And how has it trended recently?

回到這個問題——關於客戶延遲和裁員（如果不是取消的話）這個問題，Ken 和 Rami 希望——我希望能得到更多的見解。除了蒂姆的問題，只關注云，隨著時間的推移，你看到了什麼？從這些延遲、增加的審查方面，你實時看到了什麼，它有多嚴重？與 90 天前相比如何？最近的趨勢如何？

Okay. Paul, thanks. So I'm not sure if I can give you that much more color than I just provided. I'll say that we started to see some of the delays early in the quarter. Like I said, I don't think it's specific to any one customer. The most important thing I want to highlight to you all is that I do not believe that this is permanent. See, if it was permanent, then the projects that we are engaging in -- when I say engaging in, I mean, in labs, testing specific features, capabilities, 400-gig density, power efficiency, all of these things that matter a lot to our cloud customers are still very much active. They are in motion.

好的。保羅，謝謝。所以我不確定我是否可以給你比我剛才提供的更多的顏色。我會說我們在本季度初開始看到一些延遲。就像我說的，我不認為它特定於任何一個客戶。我想向大家強調的最重要的事情是，我不認為這是永久性的。看，如果它是永久性的，那麼我們正在從事的項目——當我說參與時，我的意思是，在實驗室中測試特定的特性、能力、400 千兆密度、電源效率，所有這些對我們來說很重要的事情很多我們的雲客戶仍然非常活躍。他們在運動。

And so what we thought in terms of certain ramp for some projects has simply moved out in time. And by how much, it's sort of difficult to know exactly, but I'd say sort of a few quarters. And I fully expect that the cloud demand environment is going to come back. And if not by the end of this year, then next year.

因此，我們對某些項目的某些斜坡的想法已經及時轉移了。多少，很難確切知道，但我會說幾個季度。我完全期待雲需求環境會回來。如果不是在今年年底，那麼明年。

Rami, just to be clear, you specifically referenced cloud demand environment. But if we look beyond Cloud to Enterprise and carrier, is it the same comment?

拉米，明確一點，你特別提到了雲需求環境。但是，如果我們超越雲，將目光投向企業和運營商，這是否是相同的評論？

Okay. Thank you, Paul. I actually didn't catch that. I thought this was more around Cloud.

好的。謝謝你，保羅。其實我沒聽清楚。我認為這更多是圍繞 Cloud。

No, it's a broader question. Looking at the totality of the business, including Enterprise and carrier.

不，這是一個更廣泛的問題。查看整個業務，包括企業和運營商。

Okay. Okay. So I appreciate that clarification. So let me say a few things about the broader environment. We did mention that customers, IT professionals, CIOs are scrutinizing orders all up. I think that's a generic statement that really applies across all verticals. Having said that, I feel very good about our enterprise business, about the enterprise demand environment itself in that there are still large strategic projects around digital transformation for which our solutions are very well suited for both in the AI-Driven Enterprise clients to cloud as well as in the data center.

好的。好的。所以我很欣賞這種澄清。那麼讓我談談更廣泛的環境。我們確實提到客戶、IT 專業人員、CIO 正在仔細審查所有訂單。我認為這是一個真正適用於所有垂直領域的通用聲明。話雖如此，我對我們的企業業務、企業需求環境本身感覺非常好，因為圍繞數字化轉型仍有大型戰略項目，我們的解決方案非常適合人工智能驅動的企業客戶到雲以及在數據中心。

And I also feel very good about the fact that we are a very differentiated player in a massive opportunity with relatively modest share. So the opportunity, even in a challenged macro environment for us to see growth in this segment or in this vertical, I should say, is very good, which is why Ken just mentioned that we anticipate that we can grow revenue and orders in our enterprise business for the year. And certainly, I believe beyond that as well.

我也很高興我們是一個非常差異化的參與者，在一個巨大的機會中佔有相對較小的份額。因此，即使在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中，我們也有機會看到這個細分市場或這個垂直領域的增長，我應該說，這是非常好的，這就是為什麼 Ken 剛才提到我們預計我們可以在我們的企業中增加收入和訂單年的業務。當然，我也相信除此之外。

I will then just add to that is in the Service Provider space, 400-gig projects for core and edge upgrades are also still there. I'm actually feeling quite good about our service provider business for this year. You're going to -- I don't think you should expect the same sort of revenue we saw in the Q1 time frame to repeat because that's very much a timing of -- a function of the timing of supply. But all in all, we've beaten our long-term model for the Service Provider vertical for the last 2 years in a row. And I actually, based on current trends, expect to beat it again this year.

然後我將添加到服務提供商領域，用於核心和邊緣升級的 400-gig 項目也仍然存在。實際上，我對今年的服務提供商業務感覺非常好。你會 - 我認為你不應該期望我們在第一季度的時間框架內看到的相同類型的收入會重複，因為這在很大程度上是 - 供應時間的函數。但總而言之，在過去的兩年裡，我們已經連續擊敗了垂直服務提供商的長期模型。事實上，根據目前的趨勢，我預計今年會再次擊敗它。

All right. My follow-up question. I appreciate it's hard-enough forecasting margins in a good environment. I appreciate that much hard in this environment. The question is, Ken, if you look beyond this year in terms of ever getting back to that 60-plus, 20-plus gross operating margin model. Any thoughts you can share? Presumably, things will improve over time. It will be a more hospitable environment. But any thoughts that you could share as to the longer-term trajectory?

好的。我的後續問題。我很欣賞在良好的環境中很難預測利潤率。在這種環境下，我很感激。問題是，肯，如果你在今年之後回到 60 多、20 多的毛營業利潤率模型。你有什麼想法可以分享嗎？據推測，情況會隨著時間的推移而改善。這將是一個更加友好的環境。但是關於長期軌跡，您有什麼想法可以分享嗎？

And one quick clarification. Historically, you were kind enough to give us normalized order number where you made some adjustments. I might have missed -- I didn't see it in this shareholder letter. Did I just miss it?

和一個快速的澄清。從歷史上看，您很友好地向我們提供了您進行了一些調整的標準化訂單號。我可能錯過了——我沒有在這封股東信中看到它。我剛剛錯過了嗎？

Yes. So normalized orders, we talked on the last call that really what we did to create normalized orders or adjusted orders was removed early ordering. Since there are no longer really early ordering happening, in fact, the opposite is happening is they're consuming previously placed early orders, we are no longer providing adjusted orders just because we no longer have customers ordering ahead, right? Lead times are coming in. So that phenomenon is no longer necessary. That's why we stopped disclosing adjusted orders. It's just not a phenomenon I've seen in new orders.

是的。所以規範化訂單，我們在上次電話會議上談到，我們為創建規範化訂單或調整後的訂單所做的實際上是刪除了早期訂購。由於不再有真正的提前訂購發生，事實上，相反的情況是他們正在消耗之前下達的提前訂單，我們不再提供調整後的訂單只是因為我們不再有客戶提前訂購，對吧？交貨時間即將到來。因此不再需要這種現象。這就是我們停止披露調整後訂單的原因。這不是我在新訂單中看到的現象。

And I thought you made an adjustment also in the backward looking. But I apologize. Good ahead.

而且我認為你在回顧中也做了調整。但我道歉。好的。

No problem. On the margin perspective, we expect to expand operating margin greater than 100 basis points this year. That is not a 1-year phenomenon. I expect to expand operating margin for years to come. There's absolutely no reason why we won't get back into the 20-plus operating margin situation in due course. It's something we're very focused on as we add leverage to this business, as we continue to grow sustainably on the top line perspective and actually growing expenses slower than revenue and expanding our operating margin leverage for years to come.

沒問題。從利潤率的角度來看，我們預計今年的營業利潤率將擴大 100 個基點以上。這不是一年的現象。我希望在未來幾年擴大營業利潤率。我們絕對沒有理由不在適當的時候回到 20 多個營業利潤率的情況。這是我們在增加對這項業務的槓桿作用時非常關注的事情，因為我們在頂線的角度上繼續可持續增長，實際上支出增長速度低於收入增長，並在未來幾年擴大我們的營業利潤率槓桿。

Gross margin is a little more difficult to predict. I'll just give you some of the levers. Clearly, volume will help, software will help but we obviously have the headwind of the mix, right, where we are going to be expanding at a faster rate some of our lower-margin systems, which will have a bit of a headwind to overall margin capability.

毛利率更難預測。我會給你一些槓桿。顯然，數量會有所幫助，軟件會有所幫助，但我們顯然有混合的逆風，對，我們將以更快的速度擴展我們的一些低利潤系統，這將對整體產生一些逆風保證金能力。

Last but not least, would be some of these normalization and transitory costs that should also give us a lift into the future. So without giving a number, I think there's opportunity to expand gross margin, but the one I'm really focused on and feel very confident about is expanding operating margin.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這些正常化和暫時性成本中的一些也應該讓我們邁向未來。因此，在不給出數字的情況下，我認為有機會擴大毛利率，但我真正關注並非常有信心的是擴大營業利潤率。

Next question comes from David Vogt with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 David Vogt。

Just trying to maybe kind of parse out, and Ken, maybe we can go back to the order comment. I know you're not giving adjusted orders. But what I'm trying to figure out is if I kind of use your signposts from the first quarter of March of last year. Just based on the backlog commentary in the release, in your commentary, it would suggest sort of order growth rates maybe a little bit below that 30% number that you're talking about in the release. Just any help there would be great.

只是試著解析一下，Ken，也許我們可以回到訂單評論。我知道你沒有下達調整後的命令。但我想弄清楚的是，我是否可以使用去年三月第一季度的路標。僅根據發布中的積壓評論，在您的評論中，它會建議訂單增長率可能略低於您在發布中談論的 30% 的數字。任何幫助都會很棒。

And then second, when you think about operating margin expansion, obviously, you feel more confident to be able to do at least 100 basis points. Is there anything that you see over the next couple of quarters that sort of limit your visibility? And I'm a little bit surprised that maybe given the strength in the gross margin, you didn't take that up to something maybe a little bit more than at least 100 basis points.

其次，當你考慮營業利潤率擴張時，顯然，你更有信心至少能達到 100 個基點。在接下來的幾個季度中，您是否看到任何會限制您的知名度的事情？我有點驚訝，也許考慮到毛利率的優勢，你沒有把它提高到至少超過 100 個基點。

Yes. So for the order growth, it's kind of difficult to provide more color. I mean I tried to provide -- I did provide last year's number of greater than $1.1 billion, and we did decline this year by greater than 30%. So that's really how the math works. I mean one thing I will point out that I know some folks models don't account for is our SaaS business. So our SaaS business shows up in bookings, but does not show up in backlog. It's only a product backlog number. And since SaaS is a service revenue stream, it is missing from a lot of the model. So that might help you translate kind of year-over-year model versus our actual results.

是的。因此，對於訂單增長，提供更多顏色有點困難。我的意思是我試圖提供——我確實提供了去年超過 11 億美元的數字，而我們今年確實下降了超過 30%。這就是數學的真正運作方式。我的意思是我要指出的一件事是我知道有些人的模型沒有考慮到我們的 SaaS 業務。所以我們的 SaaS 業務出現在預訂中，但沒有出現在積壓中。這只是一個產品積壓編號。由於 SaaS 是一種服務收入流，因此很多模型都缺少它。因此，這可能會幫助您將某種同比模型與我們的實際結果進行對比。

On the operating margin question, we haven't really provided a guide or a target for the year. We're providing a floor, right, greater than 100 basis points. Yes, I did up the gross margin guide, but there's still a plus or minus factor there. If we deliver 58% or greater on gross margin, our current estimate is approximately 58%, give or take, that should translate to more than the minimum on the operating margin line of 100 basis points. So we haven't really provided an operating margin target, just more of a floor of greater than 100 basis points.

關於營業利潤率問題，我們還沒有真正提供今年的指導或目標。我們提供了一個下限，對，大於 100 個基點。是的，我做了毛利率指南，但那裡仍然有一個正負因素。如果我們的毛利率達到 58% 或更高，我們目前的估計約為 58%，無論多少，這應該轉化為超過 100 個基點的營業利潤率線的最低值。所以我們並沒有真正提供營業利潤率目標，只是超過 100 個基點的下限。

The next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess on the commentary that you had relative to seeing a more seasonal increase in orders going forward. Just wanted to dive into that a bit. Is that consistent across the 3 customer verticals, particularly I think in relation to enterprise, I think there's an impression here that things have deteriorated more recently, particularly given some of the challenges and more recently on the banking or financial services side. Have you seen any of that? Is there a more consistent sort of seasonal improvement across all the verticals, if you can touch on that?

我想根據你的評論，你看到未來訂單的季節性增長。只是想深入研究一下。這在 3 個客戶垂直領域是否一致，特別是我認為與企業相關的情況，我認為這裡給人的印像是最近情況有所惡化，特別是考慮到一些挑戰以及最近在銀行或金融服務方面。你見過嗎？如果你能談談的話，所有垂直領域是否有更一致的季節性改善？

And secondly, I think, again, Ken for you, in terms of orders getting back to growth in Q4, just wanted to check that. I mean, on my math, you need about sort of a mid-teens improvement from the order levels from Q1 to get back to growth in Q4. I just wanted to check if we sort of are doing the math right.

其次，我再次認為，就第四季度訂單恢復增長而言，肯對你來說只是想檢查一下。我的意思是，根據我的數學，你需要從第一季度的訂單水平中獲得大約十幾歲的改善，才能在第四季度恢復增長。我只是想檢查一下我們的計算是否正確。

So let me start, Samik. So in terms of the return to seasonally, it was more of a broad statement around our revenue for the year. I'd say that it definitely applies to our Enterprise and our Service Provider. Cloud provider will depend a little bit on some of the project pushouts that I just highlighted that, I think, again, will be temporary. So that might change things for the next couple of quarters in Cloud.

那麼讓我開始吧，Samik。因此，就季節性回報而言，它更像是圍繞我們今年收入的廣泛聲明。我會說它絕對適用於我們的企業和我們的服務提供商。雲提供商將在一定程度上依賴於我剛剛強調的一些項目推出，我認為，這將是暫時的。因此，這可能會改變 Cloud 未來幾個季度的情況。

I think you also touched on some of the banking fears, et cetera, and impact of that to the demand environment and where you would expect it to impact us would be in our Enterprise business. And I'll say that, no, we have not seen anything material or significant to the demand environment for our enterprise solutions. And in fact, in some ways, I kind of view that the challenges that do exist in macro today is forcing enterprises to take a hard look at digital transformation as a means of creating greater levels of efficiency in their operations by leveraging automation, artificial intelligence, and AI is in fact the biggest element of differentiation in our Enterprise solutions. So it's creating a bit of a -- somewhat of a positive effect in certain parts of our Enterprise business that we're taking advantage of.

我認為您還談到了銀行業的一些擔憂，等等，以及它對需求環境的影響，以及您希望它對我們產生影響的地方是我們的企業業務。我要說的是，不，我們沒有看到對我們的企業解決方案的需求環境有任何實質性或重要意義。事實上，在某些方面，我認為當今宏觀領域確實存在的挑戰正在迫使企業認真審視數字化轉型，將其作為通過利用自動化、人工智能提高運營效率的一種手段，而人工智能實際上是我們企業解決方案中最大的差異化元素。因此，它對我們正在利用的企業業務的某些部分產生了一些 - 一些積極影響。

Yes. And on the kind of seasonality of the order rates, I just want to make sure -- we've talked about it, but I want to make sure people really understand, the Q1 2023 orders were below normal. I mean I think that's the best way to think about it. If normal orders were 100, in prior year, orders were greater than normal, say, 120. This quarter, they're below normal, say, 80, just to get back to the normalized true growth of 100. So that's what's happening in Q1 results, which is why you're seeing the year-on-year decline that we mentioned.

是的。關於訂單率的季節性，我只是想確定——我們已經討論過了，但我想確保人們真正理解，2023 年第一季度的訂單低於正常水平。我的意思是我認為這是最好的思考方式。如果正常訂單是 100，在前一年，訂單比正常情況多，比如 120。這個季度，他們低於正常情況，比如 80，只是為了回到 100 的正常真實增長。這就是發生的事情第一季度的結果，這就是為什麼你會看到我們提到的同比下降。

I expect orders to get back to closer to normal, closer to that 100 normalization by the end of the year, by Q4. And by the way, Q4 is typically our -- seasonally our largest quarter. So I do expect sequential growth from here, possibly returning to growth by Q4. And those growth rates you've mentioned between Q4 and Q1 are absolutely directionally correct. I mean we expect to see fairly significant growth from this Q1 order level.

我預計到年底，到第四季度，訂單將恢復到接近正常水平，接近 100 正常化。順便說一句，第四季度通常是我們季節性最大的季度。所以我確實預計從這裡開始連續增長，可能會在第四季度恢復增長。你在第四季度和第一季度之間提到的那些增長率在方向上是絕對正確的。我的意思是，我們預計第一季度的訂單水平會出現相當顯著的增長。

The next question comes from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

I've got two as well, if I can. I guess I want to go back to the operating margin trend and the trajectory here. One thing that stands out to me is that it looks like your headcount growth is the highest level sequentially that we've seen in quite some time. So I'm curious, I think it was up 340 employees sequentially. I'm just curious is there a change going on as far as investing in the headcount? If so, is that sales capacity? Just how do I kind of think about that investment you're making in headcount and I guess, tied back to that operating margin return back to 20%.

如果可以的話，我也有兩個。我想我想回到這裡的營業利潤率趨勢和軌跡。對我來說很突出的一件事是，看起來你的員工人數增長是我們在很長一段時間內看到的最高水平。所以我很好奇，我認為它連續增加了 340 名員工。我只是好奇在投資員工人數方面是否發生了變化？如果是這樣，那是銷售能力嗎？我如何看待你在員工人數上所做的投資，我想，這與營業利潤率回到 20% 相關。

Yes. So headcount is up year-over-year, and there's really a couple of things happening. One, we've been talking about quite a bit, which is we are investing in sales, particularly enterprise sales, as we believe we have a lot of opportunity to take advantage of the product differentiation we have and scale that business and grow much faster than market, which we've been doing, obviously, and expect to continue to do for quite some time. So there is an intentional investment in enterprise sales globally.

是的。因此，員工人數逐年增加，並且確實發生了幾件事。第一，我們一直在談論很多，那就是我們正在投資於銷售，尤其是企業銷售，因為我們相信我們有很多機會利用我們擁有的產品差異化優勢，擴大業務規模並實現更快的增長而不是市場，顯然我們一直在做，並且預計會繼續做相當長的一段時間。因此，在全球範圍內對企業銷售進行了有意的投資。

The other thing I would mention is, really, it's about -- some of it is about low cost, high cost as we continue to grow predominantly in lower-cost regions. So you're not seeing the dollars necessarily tied to the headcount growth that you might expect. And the big focus is operating margin leverage. And we're seeing that. We have been delivering that from a revenue to expense ratio perspective over the last couple of years, and we expect to continue to do that this year. So we are very committed to managing the bottom line and expanding operating margin.

我要提到的另一件事是，真的，它是關於——其中一些是關於低成本、高成本的，因為我們繼續主要在低成本地區發展。因此，您沒有看到美元與您可能預期的員工人數增長必然掛鉤。重點是營業利潤率。我們正在看到這一點。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在從收入與費用比率的角度來實現這一點，我們預計今年會繼續這樣做。因此，我們非常致力於管理底線和擴大營業利潤率。

Okay. And then a quick follow-up. Not asked earlier. I'm just curious, though, it seems like it's garnering increased amount of traction with logos up by over 2x year-over-year. The Apstra business. Can you help us appreciate the size of that? And again, I guess the real crux of that is the pull-through effect that you're seeing on the hardware side. Just maybe unpack that a little bit further.

好的。然後快速跟進。不早問。不過，我只是好奇，它似乎獲得了越來越多的關注，徽標同比增長超過 2 倍。 Apstra 業務。你能幫我們了解一下它的大小嗎？再一次，我想真正的癥結在於您在硬件方面看到的拉通效應。只是也許進一步解壓縮。

Yes. We haven't really broken out that part of the business. But I will say that Apstra for us, the measure of success that matters the most is data center sales, data center competitive displacements. And what Apstra does is to give us like a sort of a weapon that enables us to do just that because it is truly a unique solution in the market in that it is the only open solution, it's a truly scalable solution, it's the first -- really, it pioneered the concept of intent-based networking that makes fabric management to ongoing operations in the data center super simple.

是的。我們還沒有真正打破這部分業務。但我會說 Apstra 對我們來說，最重要的成功衡量標準是數據中心銷售、數據中心競爭性取代。 Apstra 所做的就是給我們一種武器，使我們能夠做到這一點，因為它是市場上真正獨特的解決方案，因為它是唯一的開放解決方案，它是一個真正可擴展的解決方案，它是第一個 - - 真的，它開創了基於意圖的網絡概念，使結構管理對數據中心的持續運營變得超級簡單。

So from that standpoint, it's becoming increasingly meaningful. New customer wins are growing meaningfully on a year-over-year basis. And even if the software component of the sale is relatively small, what we're finding is that the hardware pull-through can actually be quite large. And in those deals, Apstra is the tip of the spear in terms of how we compete effectively.

所以從這個角度來看，它變得越來越有意義。贏得的新客戶數量逐年顯著增長。即使銷售的軟件部分相對較小，我們發現硬件拉動實際上可能相當大。在這些交易中，就我們如何有效競爭而言，Apstra 是矛尖。

The next question comes from Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Sami Badri。

Francis on for Sami Badri. The first question that I had was what is giving you confidence or what type of customer verticals are giving you confidence that product order growth will return to year-on-year growth by 4Q '23, considering the recent demand trends from other company reports?

弗朗西斯換下薩米巴德里。我的第一個問題是，考慮到其他公司報告的近期需求趨勢，是什麼讓您有信心，或者哪種類型的客戶垂直領域讓您有信心到 23 年第四季度產品訂單增長將恢復同比增長？

This really comes down to the customer conversations that we have each and every day in the normal due course of business. The competitiveness and differentiation of our solutions right now, really, across the board. Enterprise 400 gig offerings for SP and Cloud, of course, we also have a pipeline, a funnel that we scrutinize carefully. All of these factors give us confidence that order patterns should improve from here and could, in fact, result in year-over-year growth by the end of the year.

這實際上歸結為我們在正常的正常業務過程中每天進行的客戶對話。我們解決方案的競爭力和差異化現在，真的，全面的。面向 SP 和 Cloud 的 Enterprise 400 gig 產品，當然，我們也有一個管道，一個我們仔細檢查的漏斗。所有這些因素讓我們相信訂單模式應該會從現在開始改善，事實上，到年底可能會實現同比增長。

Great. And one last question. Could you actually walk us through why software-related services only grew 2%, and how ARR grew 39%. There's just a little bit of a difference between those 2 growth rates. So maybe just a little bit more color between the puts and takes between those 2 growth rates?

偉大的。最後一個問題。您能否真正向我們介紹為什麼軟件相關服務僅增長 2%，而 ARR 如何增長 39%。這兩個增長率之間只有一點點差異。那麼，在這兩種增長率之間，看跌期權和看跌期權之間的顏色可能會稍微多一點？

Yes. I think the primary driver there is our perpetual software, which does tend to be lumpy. And we did see a little bit less of that in this particular period than, say, a year ago period. The more ratable software is clearly growing sustainably; but it's still -- it's the minority of our overall software business as our on-box Flex model -- Flex licenses is still the lion's share of our software overall, the fastest-growing piece is the SaaS piece, which is why you're seeing ARR grow like it did.

是的。我認為那裡的主要驅動力是我們的永久軟件，它確實往往是塊狀的。在這個特定時期，我們確實看到了比一年前少一點的情況。評價更高的軟件顯然在持續增長；但它仍然 - 它是我們整體軟件業務的少數，因為我們的機上 Flex 模型 - Flex 許可證仍然是我們整體軟件的最大份額，增長最快的部分是 SaaS 部分，這就是為什麼你看到 ARR 像以前一樣成長。

The next question comes from George Notter with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 George Notter。

I guess I wanted to ask about your content provider or cloud provider revenue stream and orders, obviously, quite a bit softer here this quarter. It seems like the conditions are here for an inventory correction. Is it possible that you were seeing customers build inventory of your products as your lead times were longer. And now as lead times are shortening, their appetite for holding inventory is reduced. And maybe that's physical inventory, maybe that's inventory of excess capacity that's built in the network. Any sense that, that might be going on would be helpful.

我想我想問一下您的內容提供商或云提供商的收入流和訂單，顯然，本季度在這裡要軟一些。庫存調整的條件似乎已經具備。您是否有可能看到客戶在您的交貨時間更長時建立了您的產品庫存。現在，隨著交貨時間的縮短，他們持有庫存的胃口減少了。也許那是實物庫存，也許那是網絡中內置的過剩容量庫存。任何感覺，這可能會有所幫助。

Well, I think Ken touched on this, but I think the biggest factor in terms of just the order dynamics, the demand environment, is that a year ago, they were placing orders for extended lead times, for a year-plus out. Today, if the same cloud provider were to make an order in a Juniper product, they would not have to wait as long.

好吧，我認為 Ken 談到了這一點，但我認為就訂單動態和需求環境而言，最大的因素是一年前，他們下達了延長交貨期的訂單，為期一年多。如今，如果同一家云供應商訂購瞻博網絡產品，他們不必等待那麼久。

So the combination of these 2 things results in them going through a period of digestion. Basically, there is no need for them to place as many orders this quarter, Q1, compared to Q1 of last year. I think honestly, that is the simplest way I can say what is happening in the Cloud segment right now.

因此，這兩件事的結合導致它們經歷了一段時間的消化。基本上，與去年第一季度相比，他們本季度 Q1 沒有必要下那麼多訂單。老實說，這是我現在可以說出雲部分正在發生的事情的最簡單方式。

I guess the follow-on to that is do you think that the product you shipped in recent quarters to those customers went into networks? Or do you think it went into inventories?

我想接下來是你認為你最近幾個季度向這些客戶運送的產品進入了網絡嗎？或者你認為它進入了庫存？

I don't have full visibility, to be honest. I mean I suspect some of it did go into the network. Some of it did go into some level of inventory. But the net effect of it is they are going to, for the next couple of quarters or so, going to place less orders, consume the orders that they placed a year ago for which they do not need to place additional orders because they're going to be getting actual gear working through deployments.

老實說，我沒有完全的知名度。我的意思是我懷疑其中一些確實進入了網絡。其中一些確實進入了某種程度的庫存。但最終的結果是，在接下來的幾個季度左右，他們將減少訂單，消耗他們一年前下的訂單，他們不需要再下訂單，因為他們將通過部署獲得實際裝備。

In the meantime, they are engaging with us on future projects, future build-outs. And that gives me a lot of optimism that we will get back to a normal state of affairs in Cloud by the end of this year or, let's say, early next year.

與此同時，他們正在與我們就未來的項目、未來的擴建進行合作。這讓我非常樂觀，我們將在今年年底或比方說明年初恢復到雲的正常狀態。

Got it. That's great. And then also, any sense for your lead times? I realize it can vary by product line and SKU. But maybe you have a sense for where lead times were generally back in the summer of last year versus currently, I'd be curious.

知道了。那太棒了。然後，您的交貨時間有什麼意義嗎？我意識到它可能因產品線和 SKU 而異。但也許你對去年夏天的交貨時間與現在相比一般情況有所了解，我很好奇。

Yes. So we've kind of talked generically that average lead times were kind of in the kind of 9 months range. Some products were actually 12 months or even slightly greater kind of back in the height of the lead time extension, which was about a year ago. Now we're seeing on average something less than 6 months, right?

是的。所以我們一般來說平均交貨時間大約在 9 個月的範圍內。有些產品實際上比大約一年前的提前期延長的高峰期晚了 12 個月，甚至稍長一些。現在我們平均看到不到 6 個月，對吧？

We're seeing, I would say, kind of 4 to 6 months would be kind of a better average. So that's basically 3-plus months or a full quarter where a customer that was buying consistently quarter in and quarter out can literally skip a quarter and provide no bookings and still be fine with our new lead times coming in to the degree that they have.

我們看到，我會說，4 到 6 個月會是一個更好的平均水平。因此，這基本上是 3 個多月或一個完整的季度，在這個時間裡，一個連續季度和季度持續購買的客戶實際上可以跳過一個季度並且不提供預訂，並且仍然可以接受我們新的交貨時間達到他們所擁有的程度。

The next question comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Maybe first question for me somewhat builds on George's question. Just on if you can give a sense of how much of the portfolio is still constrained. I guess I was a little bit surprised that inventory was still a use of cash this quarter. So just when you would expect to kind of be out of an inventory build situation or just able to work down some of the inventory because you're not constrained on other products?

也許我的第一個問題在某種程度上建立在喬治的問題上。就看你是否能了解有多少投資組合仍然受到限制。我想我對本季度庫存仍然是一種現金使用感到有點驚訝。那麼，就在您希望擺脫庫存積壓的情況，或者只是因為您不受其他產品的限製而能夠減少一些庫存的時候？

Yes. So the inventory constraints are getting lessened. As I mentioned, on average, the amount of constraint is less. That's why lead times are coming down. Our lead times to our customers are coming down fairly materially. So we're starting to be able to turn inventory quicker. But what you are seeing is the backlog of purchase orders, right? I'm sure you've been tracking our purchase order commitments. A year ago, they were north -- almost $3 billion, $2.8 billion. They've come down quite a bit. They're about $2.3 billion expected this quarter, but we're still receiving those orders, right?

是的。因此，庫存限制正在減少。正如我提到的，平均而言，約束量較少。這就是交貨時間縮短的原因。我們對客戶的交貨時間正在大幅縮短。所以我們開始能夠更快地周轉庫存。但是你看到的是採購訂單的積壓，對吧？我確定您一直在跟踪我們的採購訂單承諾。一年前，他們在北方——將近 30 億美元，28 億美元。他們已經下降了很多。他們本季度預計約為 23 億美元，但我們仍在收到這些訂單，對嗎？

So we are going to see, I think, inventory plateau in the summer, probably Q2 or Q3, and then you'll start to see the outflows of inventory faster than the inflows of the previously committed purchase orders that we, in many cases, put on the books upwards of a year ago because the lead times to our component providers are over a year long. So you're seeing that flow through the inventory.

所以我認為，我們將在夏季看到庫存穩定期，可能是第二季度或第三季度，然後你將開始看到庫存流出速度快於我們之前承諾的採購訂單的流入速度，在許多情況下，一年多前就入賬了，因為我們的組件供應商的交貨時間超過一年。所以你看到了庫存中的流量。

Great. And maybe just as a follow-up question. You guys had a very sizable cloud win that you announced at least in Q1 of last year. Just trying to get a sense of how much of an additional headwind kind of maybe comping that customer's initial order has? Or is that not worth calling out, it's really this inventory across the board, across your cloud customers?

偉大的。也許只是作為一個後續問題。你們至少在去年第一季度宣布了一項非常可觀的雲勝利。只是想了解有多少額外的不利因素可能會影響客戶的初始訂單？還是這不值得大聲疾呼，這真的是整個雲客戶的全面庫存？

Well, all of the wins that we've cited in past quarters are meaningful, and they remain important, and they will help us, even in the event of some slow down or push out in projects. I mean having the win is still something that we're very proud of and will help our Cloud business. If not as soon as we expected, maybe a little later, but it will still help. I think beyond that, I wouldn't read too much into it.

好吧，我們在過去幾個季度引用的所有勝利都是有意義的，它們仍然很重要，它們將幫助我們，即使在項目放緩或推出的情況下也是如此。我的意思是贏得勝利仍然是我們引以為豪的事情，這將有助於我們的雲業務。如果不是像我們預期的那樣快，也許會晚一點，但它仍然會有所幫助。我想除此之外，我不會讀太多。

Yes. I think that's really a bookings commentary, right, where you're going to see some lumpiness at large cloud won a year ago. They might have had to book 12 months' worth of demand a year ago because our lead times were what they were. Now they no longer need to book that level of demand. So that could result in some of this normalization we've been talking about on the bookings side.

是的。我認為這真的是一個預訂評論，對吧，你會看到一年前在大型雲中贏得的一些腫塊。他們可能不得不在一年前預訂 12 個月的需求量，因為我們的交貨時間是他們的時間。現在他們不再需要預訂那種水平的需求。因此，這可能會導致我們一直在談論的預訂方面的一些正常化。

On the revenue side, it's really about timing of supply. I mean you're going to see ups and downs. You've seen it in the past quarters, you'll see it going forward. The revenue decline of 14% for cloud is not what I believe the new norm is going to be. It just is a factor of what we shipped in Q1, and I'm sure it will recover from there going forward.

在收入方面，這實際上與供應時間有關。我的意思是你會看到起伏。你在過去幾個季度看到了它，你會看到它向前發展。雲計算收入下降 14% 並不是我認為的新常態。這只是我們在第一季度發貨的一個因素，我相信它會從那裡恢復過來。

The next question is from Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Mike Ng。

With plans to exit this year with an elevated backlog and orders to become positive exiting the year, I was just wondering if you could give us some directional expectation around revenue growth for 2024 or discuss some of the key factors you're considering. I certainly appreciate that it's early in the year. How much does that backlog burn this year just make it more challenging to achieve growth for next?

由於計劃在今年結束時積壓訂單增加，訂單在今年結束時變得積極，我只是想知道你是否可以給我們一些關於 2024 年收入增長的方向性預期，或者討論你正在考慮的一些關鍵因素。我當然很感激現在是年初。今年積壓的訂單燃燒了多少只會讓明年實現增長更具挑戰性？

Let me start, and Ken, you probably want to jump in here as well. So I do think that we can grow revenue in 2024. We are not going to provide a number on this call, but certainly, as we get closer, we will provide. And I also do think that we can achieve good profitability in 2024. And the reason for my optimism would be, first, the enterprise business is now our largest segment and our fastest growing. And I've already provided commentary on how bullish I am about enterprise, even in a weaker economic environment.

讓我開始吧，Ken，你可能也想加入進來。所以我確實認為我們可以在 2024 年增加收入。我們不會在這次電話會議上提供一個數字，但當然，隨著時間的推移，我們會提供。我也確實認為我們可以在 2024 年實現良好的盈利能力。我樂觀的原因是，首先，企業業務現在是我們最大的部分，也是我們增長最快的部分。而且我已經就我對企業的樂觀程度發表了評論，即使在較弱的經濟環境中也是如此。

The cloud provider weakness, I believe, is temporary, and I am a big believer in the growth potential of cloud in the mid- to long term. Order patterns are going to improve from where we were in Q1. I think we've hit a trough in Q1, and we should start to see better order pattern going forward, and still elevated backlog relative to historicals by the end of the year. All of these factors lead me to believe that profitable revenue growth for '24 is absolutely possible, and we can do it.

我認為，雲提供商的疲軟是暫時的，我堅信雲在中長期內的增長潛力。訂單模式將從第一季度開始改善。我認為我們在第一季度觸及低谷，我們應該開始看到更好的訂單模式，到今年年底相對於歷史水平的積壓仍然增加。所有這些因素讓我相信 24 年的盈利性收入增長是絕對有可能的，而且我們可以做到。

I mean I agree, we did raise the revenue guidance for this year to at least 9%, reflecting really the Q1 overachievement as well as the expectations embedded in Q2. We are comfortable with the second half estimates as they currently are for this year, and we encourage you to keep those estimates unchanged. But that does result in a raise for this year. But that doesn't come at normalizing backlog completely. We still expect to exit the year at least twice what we would consider to be normal backlog levels, probably greater than double backlog levels. So that's something that will also lead into next year as well.

我的意思是我同意，我們確實將今年的收入指引提高到至少 9%，這確實反映了第一季度的超額業績以及第二季度的預期。我們對今年下半年的估計感到滿意，因為它們目前是今年的估計，我們鼓勵您保持這些估計不變。但這確實導致了今年的加薪。但這並不能完全規範化積壓工作。我們仍然希望今年結束時的數量至少是我們認為正常積壓水平的兩倍，可能超過兩倍的積壓水平。所以這也將導致明年。

Up next, we have James Fish with Piper Sandler.

接下來，我們有 James Fish 和 Piper Sandler。

Most of mine have been asked. But I did want to ask, you guys raised prices about a year ago now versus kind of the backlog then. It would imply that we should be starting to get a benefit from that price increase on really gross margins now. So why shouldn't, Ken, we get a bigger gross margin uplift in the back half of the year as a result of this kind of greater backlog flush freeing up that order that would have a higher price to it then? And what are you guys seeing with supply prices in terms of availability as well as the price itself versus the last year?

我的大部分都被問到了。但我確實想問，你們大約一年前提高了價格，而不是當時的積壓。這意味著我們現在應該開始從實際毛利率的價格上漲中獲益。那麼，肯，為什麼我們不應該在今年下半年獲得更大的毛利率提升，因為這種更大的積壓沖洗釋放了當時價格更高的訂單？你們對供應價格的可用性以及價格本身與去年相比有何看法？

Yes. So the pricing actions we took over the past couple of years are playing a benefit. If you were to look at our revenue growth this year that we just posted, 2% to 3% of that growth was likely -- you could attribute to pricing increases. And I think that's going to roughly be the impact to revenue this full year, roughly 3%, give or take, of our growth of at least 9% would likely be tied to pricing. You're also seeing that show up in the gross margin line.

是的。因此，我們在過去幾年採取的定價行動正在發揮作用。如果你看看我們剛剛發布的今年的收入增長，可能會發現 2% 到 3% 的增長——你可以將其歸因於價格上漲。我認為這將大致影響全年的收入，我們至少 9% 的增長中大約有 3% 可能與定價有關。您還會看到它出現在毛利率線上。

But just to remind you, our price increase wasn't intended to recover gross margin. It was really about gross profit. So although gross margin is under pressure, we are offsetting the costs that we're getting on a one-for-one basis. We're just not -- we're not creating 60% margin on the cost increases that we're having to absorb, but we're actually trying to offset those costs and make them one-for-one, which does result in margin not necessarily bouncing back, but it does help the bottom line and obviously EPS. So as costs were to normalize, then we could still hold price, that's when you would start to see margin expansion because of the actions we took.

但提醒您，我們的提價並不是為了恢復毛利率。這真的是關於毛利潤。因此，儘管毛利率面臨壓力，但我們正在抵消一對一的成本。我們只是沒有——我們沒有為我們必須吸收的成本增加創造 60% 的利潤率，但我們實際上試圖抵消這些成本並使它們一對一，這確實導致保證金不一定會反彈，但它確實有助於底線和明顯的每股收益。因此，隨著成本正常化，我們仍然可以保持價格，那時你會因為我們採取的行動而開始看到利潤率擴張。

So far, we're not seeing supply costs come down materially at all. And maybe there might be a couple of components where you're seeing some reductions, but for the most part, component pricing are staying fairly stable. We are seeing some good signs on the freight side. I will point out that we did see a reduction in freight costs on a per kilogram basis in Q1, and that was encouraging. So some of those transitory costs on the freight side, we're starting to see normalized. But on the other parts of the transitory costs, we have yet to see a meaningful reduction.

到目前為止，我們根本沒有看到供應成本大幅下降。也許有幾個組件你會看到一些減少，但在大多數情況下，組件價格保持相當穩定。我們在貨運方面看到了一些好的跡象。我要指出的是，我們確實看到第一季度每公斤運費有所下降，這令人鼓舞。因此，貨運方面的一些暫時性成本，我們開始看到正常化。但在暫時性成本的其他部分，我們還沒有看到有意義的減少。

The next question is from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Simon Leopold 和 Raymond James。

This is Victor in for Simon. In the past, you discussed being intentional about taking share in Metro edge routing, can you tell us where you see your current share position and kind of what your targets are longer term? And maybe help us understand the key product differentiators in Juniper's claim for displacing incumbents like Huawei?

這是西蒙的維克多。過去，您討論過有意在城域邊緣路由中佔有一席之地，您能否告訴我們您如何看待當前的份額位置以及您的長期目標是什麼？也許可以幫助我們理解 Juniper 聲稱取代華為等現有企業的關鍵產品差異化因素？

Yes, certainly. So let me first talk a little bit about the market opportunity because if you look at the Service Provider vertical all up, there are different layers of that network. The layer of the network that, in fact, is growing the fastest from a total addressable market standpoint is the Metro, which is why we think it's such an interesting area for us.

是的，當然了。因此，讓我先談談市場機會，因為如果您縱向查看服務提供商，就會發現該網絡有不同的層次。事實上，從總的可尋址市場的角度來看，增長最快的網絡層是地鐵，這就是為什麼我們認為它對我們來說是一個如此有趣的領域。

Second, it's relatively straightforward for Juniper to enter into this market segment because we have great customers that leverage our solutions in the core, in the edge, love our network operating system, Junos, and would love to see us extend that into the Metro layers of their network. In fact, we've already seen a number of wins with our ACX portfolio, which is the name of the product family that serves the Metro market as a result of customers just being familiar with and very much liking the operational aspects of our network operating system.

其次，瞻博網絡進入這個細分市場相對簡單，因為我們有大量客戶在核心和邊緣利用我們的解決方案，喜歡我們的網絡操作系統 Junos，並希望看到我們將其擴展到城域層他們的網絡。事實上，我們已經看到我們的 ACX 產品組合取得了一些勝利，這是服務於地鐵市場的產品系列的名稱，因為客戶剛剛熟悉並非常喜歡我們網絡運營的運營方面系統。

In terms of the opportunity, it's still way more ahead of us than behind us because really, the solution that's just now coming together, the differentiation has to do with the fact that we've really built a sustainable portfolio that's very power efficient, leverages the latest silicon technology, has certain embedded security capabilities.

就機會而言，它仍然領先於我們而不是落後於我們，因為實際上，剛剛出現的解決方案，差異化與我們真正建立了一個非常節能的可持續投資組合這一事實有關，利用最新的矽技術，具有一定的嵌入式安全功能。

And very importantly, many of the lessons that we have learned in terms of the operations and automation of a network in our Enterprise segment with our Marvis AIOPs engine, we are taking and applying to the Metro. And the customer feedback on that strategy has been phenomenal. So again, I feel really good about this part of the -- this part of our strategy, and I think it can be very successful for us in the future. And that weighs into why I'm somewhat bullish about SP for the year.

非常重要的是，我們正在利用我們的 Marvis AIOPs 引擎在我們企業部門的網絡運營和自動化方面學到的許多經驗教訓，並將其應用於 Metro。客戶對該策略的反饋非常好。因此，我再次對我們戰略的這一部分感覺非常好，我認為它在未來對我們來說會非常成功。這就是為什麼我對今年的 SP 持樂觀態度的原因。

That's helpful. And I think you touched on this a little bit earlier. Can you give us a little insight into the composition of the software? How much is hardware attach versus stand-alone? And kind of what are the primary factors driving the demand for the software solutions?

這很有幫助。而且我認為您早些時候談到了這一點。您能給我們介紹一下軟件的組成嗎？硬件附加與獨立的價格是多少？推動軟件解決方案需求的主要因素有哪些？

Well, so software is pretty much an element of every strategic solution we're selling across our 3 solution areas, right? In the edge of an enterprise, the Mist SaaS software is a necessary component of every solution that we sell across wireless, increasingly wired and WAN in the data center space. The Apstra is an optional attach. However, it is the way in which we are competing and taking share most effectively in the data center segment today, and I've provided some color as to the growth that's happening with Apstra-led data center wins.

那麼，軟件幾乎是我們在 3 個解決方案領域銷售的每個戰略解決方案的一個要素，對嗎？在企業的邊緣，Mist SaaS 軟件是我們在數據中心空間中通過無線、越來越多的有線和 WAN 銷售的每個解決方案的必要組成部分。 Apstra 是一個可選附件。然而，這是我們今天在數據中心領域最有效地競爭和分享份額的方式，我已經為 Apstra 領導的數據中心勝利所發生的增長提供了一些顏色。

In the Service Provider space, this is a software solution we call Paragon that we are really now sort of putting together, and we are seeing early sales in the Metro. But like I just mentioned, it's still relatively early days right now in terms of the Metro opportunity. I'm not sure if I addressed your question, but I hope I did.

在服務提供商領域，這是一個我們稱之為 Paragon 的軟件解決方案，我們現在確實將其整合在一起，並且我們看到了 Metro 的早期銷售。但正如我剛才提到的，就地鐵機會而言，現在還處於相對早期的階段。我不確定我是否解決了你的問題，但我希望我做到了。

The next question comes from Tal Liani with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

This is Tomer Zilberman on for Tal. So going back to backlog, last quarter, your backlog declined between $250 million to $300 million sequentially, and you noted that you expected it to come down. For this quarter, it accelerated to $350 million. So any color on the acceleration of the drawdown versus your expectations 90 days ago? And does it -- and do you think that we can reach that new or that normalized target by the end of this year?

這是 Tal 的 Tomer Zilberman。因此，回到積壓，上個季度，您的積壓連續下降了 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元，並且您指出您預計它會下降。本季度，它加速到 3.5 億美元。那麼，與您 90 天前的預期相比，回撤加速有何不同？是嗎——你認為我們能在今年年底達到那個新的或那個正常化的目標嗎？

Yes. So backlog came down largely in line with our expectations, right? We knew the normalizations of ordering was coming as lead times were coming in, and the need to place early orders was effectively gone, and customers are now comfortable consuming previously placed orders and no longer need to place new orders. So we knew that the bookings pattern was largely going to play out the way it did. Supply was also a little bit better than we expected, which is why we beat the Q1 revenue guidance.

是的。所以積壓的下降在很大程度上符合我們的預期，對吧？我們知道隨著交貨時間的到來，訂購的正常化即將到來，提前下訂單的需求實際上已經消失，客戶現在可以放心地消費之前下的訂單，不再需要下新訂單。所以我們知道預訂模式在很大程度上將按照它的方式發揮作用。供應也比我們預期的要好一點，這就是我們超過第一季度收入指引的原因。

But we're talking about an extra $30 million there. So maybe backlog is down about $30 million more than I expected. But overall, it's pretty much in line with my expectations. I do think it will continue to come down. I do not believe it's going to be $350 million, give or take, every single quarter. I think as booking starts to normalize, and we've been talking about how we think that could start happening throughout this year, starting now, and we actually could return to growth in Q4 and be effectively normal by the end of the year, you will then see backlog moderate. The decline in backlog starts to moderate. We expect to exit the year with elevated backlog, not normal, elevated backlog, greater than $800 million, which is more than 2x kind of our normal backlog levels.

但我們談論的是額外的 3000 萬美元。所以積壓訂單可能比我預期的少了大約 3000 萬美元。但總的來說，它非常符合我的預期。我確實認為它會繼續下降。我不相信每個季度都會有 3.5 億美元，或多或少。我認為隨著預訂開始正常化，我們一直在談論我們認為這可能會在今年開始發生，從現在開始，我們實際上可以在第四季度恢復增長，並在年底前恢復正常，你然後會看到積壓適中。積壓的下降開始放緩。我們預計今年結束時積壓會增加，而不是正常情況下，積壓會增加，超過 8 億美元，這是我們正常積壓水平的兩倍多。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session, and I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

問答環節已經結束，我現在將把電話轉給管理層作結束語。

So I'll just end by saying, despite the macro challenges that are out there, I remain very confident in the business. This is why we have, in fact, increased our 2023 revenue outlook to at least 9%. And also, we are -- we believe that we will deliver over 100 basis points of operating margin expansion. But most importantly, I think that we can achieve sustainable revenue growth and profitability in this business, not just this year, but 2024 and beyond. And thanks, everyone, for participating in the call today.

所以我最後要說的是，儘管存在宏觀挑戰，但我對這項業務仍然充滿信心。事實上，這就是為什麼我們將 2023 年的收入預期提高到至少 9%。而且，我們 - 我們相信我們將實現超過 100 個基點的營業利潤率擴張。但最重要的是，我認為我們可以在這項業務中實現可持續的收入增長和盈利能力，不僅僅是今年，而是 2024 年及以後。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。