Jones Lang LaSalle Inc (JLL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q4 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jacquetta. I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加 2022 年第四季度仲量聯行第四季度收益電話會議。我的名字是杰奎塔。我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Scott Einberger, with JLL. Scott, please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給你的主持人 Scott Einberger，他來自仲量聯行。斯科特，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call for Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings release, along with a slide presentation and Excel file intended to supplement our prepared remarks.

謝謝，早上好。歡迎來到仲量聯行第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了收益報告，以及旨在補充我們準備好的評論的幻燈片演示和 Excel 文件。

These materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Please visit ir.jll.com. During the call and in our slide presentation and accompanying Excel file, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for investors.

這些材料可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲得。請訪問 ir.jll.com。在電話會議期間以及我們的幻燈片演示和隨附的 Excel 文件中，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標可為投資者提供有用的信息。

We include reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP in our earnings release and slide presentation. As a reminder, today's call is being webcast live and recorded. A transcript and recording of this conference call will be posted to our website.

我們在收益發布和幻燈片演示中包含了非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 的對賬。提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在進行網絡直播和錄音。本次電話會議的文字記錄和錄音將發佈到我們的網站上。

Any statements made about future results and performance, plans, expectations and objectives are forward-looking statements. Actual results and performance may differ from those forward-looking statements as a result of factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2022, and in other reports filed with the SEC.

任何關於未來結果和業績、計劃、期望和目標的陳述都是前瞻性陳述。由於我們在截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日和 2022 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度的 10-K 表格年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告中討論的因素，實際結果和業績可能與這些前瞻性陳述不同.

The company disclaims any undertaking to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Christian Ulbrich, our President and Chief Executive Officer; for opening remarks.

公司不承諾公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述。我現在將電話轉交給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Christian Ulbrich；開場白。

Thank you, Scott. Hello, and thank you all for joining our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Before we begin today's call, I would like to take a moment to express our sympathy to the people of Turkey and Syria who have been impacted by multiple earthquakes.

謝謝你，斯科特。大家好，感謝大家參加我們的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想花點時間向遭受多次地震影響的土耳其和敘利亞人民表示同情。

We are focused on supporting our people, clients and suppliers in the region. Over the past 12 months, rising interest rates, currency headwinds and geopolitical events have continued to put downward pressure on the macroeconomic environment.

我們專注於支持我們在該地區的員工、客戶和供應商。在過去 12 個月中，利率上升、貨幣逆風和地緣政治事件繼續對宏觀經濟環境造成下行壓力。

For real estate markets, a rapid rise in interest rates has led to a slowdown in investment sales activity. According to JLL Research, global commercial real estate investments totaled $203 billion in the fourth quarter, a year-over-year decline of 56% with our spreads across asset classes remain wider than normal and reflects the need for continued price discovery to occur.

對於房地產市場，利率的快速上升導致投資銷售活動放緩。根據 JLL Research 的數據，第四季度全球商業房地產投資總額為 2030 億美元，同比下降 56%，我們在資產類別之間的利差仍高於正常水平，反映出需要持續發現價格。

A lack of transactions is limiting liquidity in some markets, with investors expected to remain patient as prices settle, at which point liquidity will improve. Dry powder is at near record levels with $386 billion sitting on the sidelines, down slightly from the end of 2021.

缺乏交易限制了一些市場的流動性，預計投資者將在價格穩定時保持耐心，屆時流動性將有所改善。幹火藥接近創紀錄水平，有 3860 億美元處於觀望狀態，比 2021 年底略有下降。

We expect this dry powder to be deployed once interest rates stabilize and bid-ask spreads normalize. The macroeconomic pressures are also being felt in the global office leasing market, while volume was down 19% year-over-year in the fourth quarter according to JLL Research.

我們預計一旦利率穩定且買賣價差正常化，就會部署這種干火藥。全球寫字樓租賃市場也感受到了宏觀經濟壓力，根據 JLL Research 的數據，第四季度租賃量同比下降 19%。

Tenants are delaying decisions or taking short-term actions in light of the macroeconomic uncertainty. Global office vacancy rates picked up modestly to 14.9% in the fourth quarter. In most markets, high-quality premium assets continued to significantly outperform the rest of the market as occupiers focus on upgrading space.

鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，租戶正在推遲決策或採取短期行動。全球寫字樓空置率在第四季度小幅回升至 14.9%。在大多數市場，由於租戶專注於升級空間，優質優質資產的表現繼續明顯優於市場其他資產。

In the industrial space, occupiers are taking a more cautious approach with demand slowing across all 3 regions in the fourth quarter. However, market fundamentals remained strong in the industrial space with low vacancy rates and healthy rental growth in many markets. The retail and hotel sectors outperformed on a relative basis in the fourth quarter.

在工業領域，隨著第四季度所有 3 個地區的需求放緩，租戶採取更加謹慎的態度。然而，工業領域的市場基本面依然強勁，許多市場的空置率較低且租金增長健康。零售業和酒店業在第四季度的相對錶現優於大市。

Retail demand picked up in the U.S. after a slow third quarter. And in Asia Pacific, retail continues to perform well in many major markets. Hotels continued the recovery that began early in 2022 as consumer spending on travel persists.

在經歷了緩慢的第三季度之後，美國的零售需求有所回升。在亞太地區，許多主要市場的零售業繼續表現良好。隨著消費者在旅行方面的支出持續存在，酒店業繼續從 2022 年初開始的複蘇。

JLL's financial results for the fourth quarter reflect the points I just discussed. We saw a decline in our investment sales business as inflation and rising interest rates continued to slow the transaction market. Our leasing business also saw a slowdown both in volume and average deal size.

仲量聯行第四季度的財務業績反映了我剛才討論的要點。由於通貨膨脹和利率上升繼續放緩交易市場，我們的投資銷售業務出現下滑。我們的租賃業務的數量和平均交易規模也有所放緩。

As we have spoken about in the past, the magnitude of a slowdown is more pronounced in our investment sales business than in our leasing business as our leasing business has a more resilient revenue base. This dynamic is reflected in our fourth quarter results. Both investment sales and leasing were lapping record results from the fourth quarter of 2021, impacting the year-over-year decline on a percentage basis.

正如我們過去所說的那樣，我們的投資銷售業務放緩的幅度比我們的租賃業務更為明顯，因為我們的租賃業務具有更具彈性的收入基礎。這種動態反映在我們第四季度的業績中。自 2021 年第四季度以來，投資銷售和租賃均創下歷史新高，影響了同比下降百分比。

In contrast, our more resilient business lines such as Property Management, Workplace Management, Valuation Advisory, Loan Servicing, and JLL Technologies, in total delivered positive fee revenue growth during the quarter despite the economic headwinds.

相比之下，儘管經濟逆風，我們更具彈性的業務線，如物業管理、工作場所管理、估值諮詢、貸款服務和 JLL Technologies，在本季度總體上實現了正收費收入增長。

We have worked hard over the last decade to diversify our business lines and add more resilient revenue streams to our portfolio. Finally, LaSalle grew advisory fee revenue during the quarter, highlighting the annuity-like nature of this revenue stream.

在過去十年中，我們一直在努力實現業務線多元化，並為我們的投資組合增加更具彈性的收入來源。最後，LaSalle 在本季度增加了諮詢費收入，突顯了這一收入流類似年金的性質。

We remain focused on our adjusted EBITDA margin, and we'll continue to make targeted investments to drive future growth. In addition, we have taken steps to drive operational efficiencies across our business and reduce our cost base. The cost actions we have taken to date occurred across business segments and have been focused on non-revenue-generating growth.

我們仍然專注於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率，我們將繼續進行有針對性的投資以推動未來增長。此外，我們已採取措施提高整個業務的運營效率並降低成本基礎。我們迄今為止採取的成本行動發生在各個業務部門，並且一直專注於非創收增長。

Our change to a segment reporting structure has allowed us to quickly identify and take action to remove these costs. As a result of these actions, we have removed approximately $140 million of cost on an annualized basis. Some of the cost actions have an immediate impact, while others take time to materialize.

我們對分部報告結構的改變使我們能夠快速識別並採取行動消除這些成本。由於採取了這些行動，我們每年減少了大約 1.4 億美元的成本。一些成本行動會立即產生影響，而另一些則需要時間才能實現。

Based on the timing of these actions, we expect to realize $125 million of the cost savings in 2023. We have carefully balanced the need to reduce our costs without impacting our ability to immediately return to growth mode as conditions improved and will continue to identify further opportunities to drive efficiencies in 2023. I will now turn the call over to Karen, who will provide more detail on our results for the quarter.

根據這些行動的時間安排，我們預計到 2023 年將實現 1.25 億美元的成本節約。我們已經仔細權衡了降低成本的需求，同時又不影響我們隨著條件改善立即恢復增長模式的能力，並將繼續進一步確定在 2023 年提高效率的機會。我現在將電話轉給 Karen，她將提供有關我們本季度業績的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Christian. Before I begin, a reminder that variances are against the prior year period in local currency, unless otherwise noted.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。在我開始之前，提醒一下，除非另有說明，否則差異是相對於上一年期間的當地貨幣。

2022 was a tale of 2 halves similar to what we experienced in 2021 but in reverse. Our strong performance in the first half of 2022 was offset by headwinds in the second half, particularly the fourth quarter, which saw a rapid slowdown in investment sales and leasing volumes. Despite the industry-wide slowdown, we delivered solid full year fee revenue growth and continue to make progress in strengthening our platform for long-term value creation.

2022 年是一個分為兩半的故事，與我們在 2021 年經歷的類似，但恰恰相反。我們在 2022 年上半年的強勁表現被下半年的不利因素所抵消，尤其是第四季度，投資銷售和租賃量迅速放緩。儘管整個行業都在放緩，但我們全年的費用收入實現了穩健增長，並在加強我們長期價值創造的平台方面繼續取得進展。

Using our strong investment-grade balance sheet, we returned about $600 million of capital to shareholders via share repurchases over the course of the year while also making incremental investments in our people and platform. I'll expand on these topics later in my remarks. For the full year, consolidated fee revenue rose 7% to $8.3 billion.

憑藉我們強大的投資級資產負債表，我們在這一年中通過股票回購向股東返還了約 6 億美元的資本，同時還對我們的人員和平台進行了增量投資。我將在稍後的發言中詳述這些主題。全年，綜合費用收入增長 7% 至 83 億美元。

Our more resilient business lines collectively grew 16%, including 14% organic growth. Transaction-oriented fee revenue grew 4%, led by 7% growth in leasing. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year declined 14% to $1.2 billion, with 8% of the decline from lower equity earnings. The full year adjusted EBITDA margin declined 370 basis points to 15.0%, with fee revenue growth more than offset by approximately 190 basis points from lower equity earnings, 140 basis points from higher travel, entertainment and marketing expenses. 80 basis points from incremental investment in our people and platform, and 30 basis points from our changes to commission structures within capital markets.

我們更具彈性的業務線共同增長了 16%，包括 14% 的有機增長。以交易為導向的費用收入增長 4%，其中租賃增長 7%。全年調整後的 EBITDA 下降 14% 至 12 億美元，其中 8% 的降幅來自較低的股票收益。全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降 370 個基點至 15.0%，費用收入增長被股權收益下降約 190 個基點、差旅、娛樂和營銷費用增加 140 個基點所抵消。 80 個基點來自對我們人員和平台的增量投資，30 個基點來自我們對資本市場佣金結構的改變。

Adjusted EPS of $15.71 declined 17%, driven by higher interest and amortization expenses on top of the lower adjusted EBITDA, partially offset by a 5% reduction in the average share count. Shifting to the fourth quarter performance. Fee revenue declined 16% over a record fourth quarter of 2021.

調整後的每股收益為 15.71 美元，下降了 17%，這是由於利息和攤銷費用增加以及調整後的 EBITDA 較低，部分被平均股數減少 5% 所抵消。轉向第四季度的表現。費用收入在創紀錄的 2021 年第四季度下降了 16%。

The macroeconomic factors that Christian described drove a 40% decline in investment sales, debt and equity advisory fee revenue and an 18% decline in leasing. In contrast, our resilient business lines collectively grew 12% with notable strength in our workplace management business line within work dynamics as well as in JLL Technologies and in LaSalle Advisory fees.

Christian 描述的宏觀經濟因素導致投資銷售、債務和股權諮詢費收入下降 40%，租賃收入下降 18%。相比之下，我們的彈性業務線共同增長了 12%，我們在工作動態方面的工作場所管理業務線以及 JLL Technologies 和 LaSalle Advisory fees 方面的實力顯著。

Adjusted EBITDA fell 42% from the prior year quarter to $339 million, mostly due to a $124 million adverse swing in equity earnings. Our adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.5% is down 710 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2021, a period which generated the highest quarterly margin in over 15 years. Lower equity earnings contributed approximately 550 basis points to the margin decline.

調整後的 EBITDA 比去年同期下降 42% 至 3.39 億美元，這主要是由於股票收益出現 1.24 億美元的不利波動。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.5%，比 2021 年第四季度下降了 710 個基點，這是 15 年來最高的季度利潤率。較低的股票收益導致利潤率下降約 550 個基點。

Additional drivers of the decrease included lower transaction-based fee revenue and higher fixed compensation expense largely tied to investments to drive future growth over the past several quarters, partially offset by lower performance-based incentive compensation. Moving to a detailed review of operating performance by segment, beginning with Markets Advisory.

減少的其他驅動因素包括較低的基於交易的費用收入和較高的固定薪酬支出，這些支出主要與過去幾個季度推動未來增長的投資相關，部分被較低的基於績效的激勵薪酬所抵消。從市場諮詢開始，按部門詳細審查經營業績。

Fourth quarter leasing fee revenue declined 18%, following a 68% growth rate in the prior year quarter. As macro conditions varied across regions, so too did our leasing fee revenue declines across geographies, with the Americas down 20%, Asia Pacific down 16%, and EMEA down 10%. All in comparison to strong growth rates in the prior year quarter.

繼去年同期 68% 的增長率之後，第四季度租賃費收入下降了 18%。由於宏觀環境因地區而異，我們各地區的租賃費收入也有所下降，美洲下降 20%，亞太地區下降 16%，歐洲、中東和非洲下降 10%。所有這些都與去年同期的強勁增長率相比。

On a global basis, all primary asset classes saw transaction volume decline, along with lower average deal size, particularly in the office sector. Of note, large-scale office leases in the U.S. saw a pronounced decline. Our fourth quarter office sector fee revenue fell 17%, though compared favorably with a 19% contraction in global office leasing volume according to JLL Research.

在全球範圍內，所有主要資產類別的交易量均有所下降，平均交易規模也有所下降，尤其是在寫字樓領域。值得注意的是，美國的大型寫字樓租賃明顯下降。根據 JLL Research 的數據，我們第四季度的寫字樓部門費用收入下降了 17%，但與全球寫字樓租賃量 19% 的收縮相比要好得多。

In the industrial sector, fee revenue growth declined 21%, and was directionally consistent with expectations given the tight supply and significant growth seen over the past several years. This compares favorably with a 26% decrease in global industrial market activity from a year ago, according to JLL Research. As Christian described, we're seeing more sustained leasing demand for high-quality assets despite softer demand more broadly.

在工業部門，手續費收入增長下降了 21%，並且在過去幾年供應緊張和顯著增長的情況下與預期一致。根據 JLL Research 的數據，這與一年前全球工業市場活動下降 26% 相比要好得多。正如克里斯蒂安所描述的那樣，儘管更廣泛的需求疲軟，但我們看到對優質資產的租賃需求更加持久。

In addition, leasing activity varies by sector and geography. For instance, our gross U.S. leasing pipeline is larger from this time a year ago, with comparatively stronger growth in industrial and retail versus the office sector. While the gross leasing pipeline provides cautious optimism for the full year 2023, near-term activity is likely to be subdued, especially when comparing to the strength we saw in the first half of 2022.

此外，租賃活動因行業和地理位置而異。例如，與一年前的這個時候相比，我們在美國的總租賃管道更大，工業和零售業的增長相對於辦公部門而言更為強勁。雖然總租賃管道為 2023 年全年提供了謹慎樂觀的態度，但近期活動可能會受到抑制，尤其是與我們在 2022 年上半年看到的強度相比。

Also within Markets Advisory, property management fee revenue for the fourth quarter grew 8%, primarily organic and generally consistent with a full year growth rate of 9%, which speaks to the resiliency of the business line.

同樣在 Markets Advisory 內部，第四季度的物業管理費收入增長了 8%，主要是有機增長，與全年 9% 的增長率基本一致，這說明了該業務線的彈性。

I do note that at the end of 2022, we disposed of a business that accounted for nearly $23 million of the advisory and consulting fee revenue annually. Its contribution to adjusted EBITDA was immaterial. The Markets Advisory fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin declined 230 basis points from a year ago to 17.4%, primarily due to lower leasing fee revenue, investments and talent to match growth in our business over the past year and incremental T&E and marketing expenses.

我確實注意到，到 2022 年底，我們處置了一項每年佔諮詢和諮詢費收入近 2300 萬美元的業務。它對調整後的 EBITDA 的貢獻並不重要。 Markets Advisory 第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較上年同期下降 230 個基點至 17.4%，這主要是由於租賃費收入、投資和人才減少，以適應我們過去一年的業務增長以及 T&E 和營銷費用的增加。

Despite full year fee revenue growth of 8% within Markets Advisory, the adjusted EBITDA margin declined 110 basis points to 16.0% on the same factors impacting the movement in the quarter as well as investments in our technology platform.

儘管市場諮詢全年費用收入增長 8%，但調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降 110 個基點至 16.0%，原因是影響本季度變動的相同因素以及對我們技術平台的投資。

Shifting to our Capital Markets segment. The market conditions Christian described were a key factor and a 34% decline in segment fee revenue for the fourth quarter. I note the contraction was off a fourth quarter 2021 growth rate of 53%. Indicative of the strength and breadth of our global capital markets platform, JLL's global investment sales fee revenue decline of 45% compared favorably to the 56% fell in global deal volume Christian referenced.

轉向我們的資本市場部門。 Christian 描述的市場狀況是一個關鍵因素，第四季度分部費用收入下降了 34%。我注意到收縮是基於 2021 年第四季度 53% 的增長率。仲量聯行的全球投資銷售費用收入下降了 45%，而克里斯蒂安提到的全球交易量下降了 56%，這表明我們全球資本市場平台的實力和廣度。

For perspective, the fourth quarter market volume decline was the sharpest since the fourth quarter of 2008, and in terms of dollars, was the lowest overall market volume in fourth quarter 2011. Fee revenue from U.S. investment sales fell about 61%, slightly better than the 62% decline in U.S. market volumes according to JLL Research.

從角度看，第四季度市場成交量降幅為 2008 年第四季度以來最大，以美元計算，為 2011 年第四季度整體市場成交量最低。美國投資銷售手續費收入下降約 61%，略好於根據 JLL Research 的數據，美國市場銷量下降了 62%。

Valuation Advisory fee revenue, which is more resilient than investment sales, debt and equity advisory grew 3% in the fourth quarter. Growth was broad-based across regions and sectors. Our loan servicing fee revenue fell 10% on approximately $7 million of lower prepayment fees, which more than offset about 8% of ordinary servicing fees. Our loan servicing portfolio increased 2%, driven largely by Fannie Mae originations. The fourth quarter Capital Markets adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 440 basis points from a year ago to 19.3% on lower fee revenue, higher commission expense from the change in our compensation mix to more commissions from cash bonus, higher T&E expense, an increase in our multifamily loan reserve, and incremental investment in headcount to drive future growth over the past several quarters.

比投資銷售、債務和股票諮詢更具彈性的估值諮詢費收入在第四季度增長了 3%。各地區和行業的增長基礎廣泛。由於預付款費用減少約 700 萬美元，我們的貸款服務費收入下降了 10%，這抵消了約 8% 的普通服務費。我們的貸款服務組合增長了 2%，主要受 Fannie Mae 發起的推動。第四季度資本市場調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較上年同期收縮 440 個基點至 19.3%，原因是費用收入下降、我們的薪酬組合變化為更多現金紅利佣金導致的佣金支出增加、T&E 支出增加、我們的多戶住宅數量增加貸款準備金，以及對員工人數的增量投資，以推動過去幾個季度的未來增長。

For the full year, with Capital Markets fee revenue flat, the adjusted EBITDA margin fell 340 basis points to 18.2%, driven primarily by the same expense factors as well as incremental investments in technology. Looking ahead, the global capital markets investment sales debt and equity advisory pipeline is consistent with this time last year as modest growth in the Americas and Asia Pacific is offset by a slight decline in EMEA.

全年來看，由於資本市場費用收入持平，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降 340 個基點至 18.2%，主要受相同費用因素以及技術投資增量的推動。展望未來，全球資本市場投資銷售債務和股票諮詢管道與去年同期一致，因為美洲和亞太地區的溫和增長被歐洲、中東和非洲地區的小幅下滑所抵消。

The amount and pace of revenue growth through the year will be heavily influenced by the factors impacting deal timing and closing rates that Christian described. I also remind you of the tougher growth comparisons for the first half of the year.

克里斯蒂安描述的影響交易時間和成交率的因素將在很大程度上影響全年收入增長的數量和速度。我還提醒您今年上半年更嚴格的增長比較。

Moving next to Work Dynamics. Fourth quarter fee revenue grew 11% with double-digit growth across our annuity and transactional revenue streams within the segment. Client wins and global contract extensions in prior periods led to 19% fee revenue growth in workplace management. Project management fee revenue grew 13%, propelled by improvement in the return-to-work trends.

移動到 Work Dynamics 旁邊。第四季度的費用收入增長了 11%，該部門的年金和交易收入流實現了兩位數的增長。前期客戶贏得和全球合同延期導致工作場所管理的費用收入增長 19%。受復工趨勢改善的推動，項目管理費收入增長了 13%。

The slowdown in leasing activity adversely impacted portfolio services fee revenue growth in the quarter. The Work Dynamics fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 110 basis points from a year ago, driven by increased scale and cost management strategies enacted over the past year, partially offset by incremental investment in technology and people.

租賃活動放緩對本季度的投資組合服務費收入增長產生了不利影響。 Work Dynamics 第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率比一年前擴大了 110 個基點，這得益於過去一年實施的規模和成本管理戰略的增加，部分被技術和人員的增量投資所抵消。

For the full year, large-scale client wins and global contract expansions in 2021 helped drive 15% Work Dynamics fee revenue growth. The segment's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 80 basis points to 11.6% in 2022. The drivers of the full year margin expansion were consistent with those in the quarter.

就全年而言，2021 年的大規模客戶贏得和全球合同擴展幫助推動了 Work Dynamics 費用收入增長 15%。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 2022 年擴大了 80 個基點，達到 11.6%。全年利潤率增長的驅動因素與本季度一致。

The 2022 client wins and expansions within workplace management, which are indicative of future demand given contract lead time, exhibited solid growth, though they were more moderate in scale than the prior year. The project management pipeline is currently strong. However, growth trends are generally linked to leasing, albeit lagged.

2022 年贏得的客戶和工作場所管理領域的擴張（這表明在合同交付週期內的未來需求）表現出穩健的增長，儘管它們的規模比上一年更為溫和。項目管理管道目前很強大。然而，增長趨勢通常與租賃相關，儘管有所滯後。

Therefore, the current moderation in overall leasing activity reduces certainty of pipeline conversion in the latter part of the year. Turning to JLL Technologies. Fee revenue, inclusive of M&A increased 36% in the fourth quarter. Organic growth of 21% was driven largely by enterprise clients.

因此，目前整體租賃活動的放緩降低了今年下半年管道轉換的確定性。轉向 JLL Technologies。包括併購在內的費用收入在第四季度增長了 36%。 21% 的有機增長主要由企業客戶推動。

Looking at the full year, fee revenue grew 47% of which 23% was organic, driven by new customers and client expansions. As a reminder, JLL Technologies also influence its fee revenue across JLL through software that differentiates our services. Equity earnings in the quarter were driven by a handful of impairment or valuation declines, partially offset by more modest valuation increases and a few investments. An approximate $100 million adverse [swing] in equity earnings net of carried interest from the prior year period drove over 90% of the contraction in the JLL Technologies adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter.

從全年來看，在新客戶和客戶擴展的推動下，手續費收入增長了 47%，其中 23% 是有機增長。提醒一下，JLL Technologies 還通過使我們的服務與眾不同的軟件影響其在整個 JLL 的費用收入。本季度的股票收益是由少數減值或估值下降推動的，部分被更溫和的估值增長和一些投資所抵消。與去年同期相比，扣除附帶權益後的股權收益約 1 億美元的不利 [波動] 導致 JLL Technologies 本季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率收縮超過 90%。

The primary drivers of the full year adjusted EBITDA margin decline were consistent with the quarter. As for LaSalle, strong capital deployment and fair value increases over the past 12 months drove 3% growth in assets under management, which translated to a 16% rise in Advisory Fee revenue mostly within our core open-end funds.

全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率下降的主要驅動因素與本季度一致。至於 LaSalle，過去 12 個月強勁的資本部署和公允價值增長推動了管理資產增長 3%，這轉化為主要在我們核心開放式基金中的諮詢費收入增長 16%。

Equity earnings for the fourth quarter were $21 million lower than the prior year, driven by moderating asset valuations broadly, which are likely to be a headwind to near-term advisory fee revenue growth and incentive fee generation. The increase in advisory fee revenue and platform scale benefit were more than offset by the lower equity earnings and lower transaction and incentive fee revenue, resulting in a decline in LaSalle's adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter.

第四季度的股票收益比上年同期減少 2100 萬美元，這是受資產估值普遍放緩的推動，這可能對近期的諮詢費收入增長和激勵費產生產生不利影響。諮詢費收入和平台規模效益的增長被較低的股權收益以及較低的交易和激勵費收入所抵消，導致 LaSalle 本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降。

For the year, LaSalle's adjusted EBITDA declined 40% as lower equity earnings and incentive fee revenue more than offset a 17% increase in advisory fee revenue and platform scale benefit. The lower equity earnings and incentive fee revenue drove substantially all of the full year adjusted EBITDA margin contraction.

今年，LaSalle 調整後的 EBITDA 下降了 40%，因為較低的股權收益和激勵費收入抵消了 17% 的諮詢費收入和平台規模效益增長。較低的股權收益和激勵費用收入導致全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率大幅收縮。

Moving to free cash flow, which was below our expectation for the year. We generated $532 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year to an outflow of $6 million. The full year outflow was driven by: one, higher commission payments in May 22, reflecting greater payments in early 2022 for commissions earned from the strong performance in the prior year fourth quarter as well as incremental commissions this year attributable to the full year leasing growth and changes to the capital markets incentive compensation structure; two, higher bonus payouts this year tied to 2021 performance; three, higher cash tax payments related to timing and prior year profitability; and four, lower profitability in 2022.

轉向自由現金流，這低於我們今年的預期。我們在第四季度產生了 5.32 億美元的自由現金流，使全年流出 600 萬美元。全年資金外流的驅動因素是：第一，5 月 22 日的佣金支付增加，反映出 2022 年初因去年第四季度的強勁表現而獲得的佣金支付增加，以及今年因全年租賃增長而增加的佣金資本市場激勵薪酬結構的變化；第二，今年更高的獎金支出與 2021 年的業績掛鉤；第三，與時間安排和上一年盈利能力相關的現金稅支付較高；第四，2022 年盈利能力下降。

Cash flow conversion is a high priority. And we remain focused on improving our working capital efficiency. Now for an update on our balance sheet and capital allocation. As of December 31, our reported net leverage of 1.0x is at the midpoint of our target range and up from 0.2x a year earlier, primarily due to share repurchases, incremental investments in our business and lower free cash flow.

現金流轉換是重中之重。我們仍然專注於提高營運資本效率。現在更新我們的資產負債表和資本配置。截至 12 月 31 日，我們報告的 1.0 倍淨槓桿率處於我們目標範圍的中點，高於去年同期的 0.2 倍，這主要是由於股票回購、對我們業務的增量投資和較低的自由現金流。

As a reminder, our leverage ratio typically peaks in the first part of the year. We have a history of deleveraging quickly. Our liquidity totaled $2.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, including $2.1 billion of undrawn credit facility capacity. As previously indicated, we did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter.

提醒一下，我們的槓桿率通常在今年上半年達到峰值。我們有快速去槓桿化的歷史。截至第四季度末，我們的流動資金總額為 26 億美元，其中包括 21 億美元的未動用信貸額度。如前所述，我們在第四季度沒有回購任何股票。

Our period-end share count was down about 5% from a year earlier as a result of our approximate $600 million of share repurchases over the course of the first nine months of the year. As we stated at our investor briefing in November, we are committed to resuming share repurchase activity in '23.

由於我們在今年前 9 個月回購了約 6 億美元的股票，我們的期末股票數量較上年同期下降了約 5%。正如我們在 11 月份的投資者簡報會上所說，我們致力於在 23 年恢復股票回購活動。

The amount of share repurchases will be dependent on the evolution of the market recovery and the performance of our business, particularly cash generation. Approximately $1.2 billion remained on our share repurchase authorization as of December 31, 2022.

股票回購的數量將取決於市場復甦的演變和我們業務的表現，尤其是現金產生。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的股票回購授權剩餘約 12 億美元。

Along with share repurchases, reinvestment in our business to further strengthen the resiliency of our diversified platform and drive profitable long-term growth remains a top priority. Despite the sharper and shorter macroeconomic cycles, having a pronounced impact on our business in the last 3 years, we have demonstrated our ability to navigate the rapid changes in the business environment and continue to focus on balancing both short-term and long-term implications for our business growth and profitability.

除了股票回購，對我們的業務進行再投資以進一步加強我們多元化平台的彈性並推動盈利的長期增長仍然是重中之重。儘管宏觀經濟周期更尖銳、更短，在過去 3 年對我們的業務產生了顯著影響，但我們已經證明了我們有能力駕馭商業環境的快速變化，並繼續專注於平衡短期和長期影響為我們的業務增長和盈利能力。

With strong growth comparisons and the broader market environment in mind, we currently anticipate the softness we saw in our more transaction-oriented fee revenue to persist through the first half of the year. We continue to calibrate both our cost basis and investment priorities to further transform our platform, while also preparing for anticipated rebound in activity.

考慮到強勁的增長比較和更廣泛的市場環境，我們目前預計我們在更多以交易為導向的費用收入中看到的疲軟將持續到今年上半年。我們繼續調整我們的成本基礎和投資重點，以進一步改造我們的平台，同時也為預期的活動反彈做準備。

As Christian noted, we've taken actions to respond to the near-term challenges and reduce our cost base. The approximately $140 million of run rate cost reduction actions to date reflect approximately 2.0% of our 2022 fee-based compensation and benefits and [OAO] expenses.

正如克里斯蒂安指出的那樣，我們已採取行動應對近期挑戰並降低成本基礎。迄今為止，約 1.4 億美元的運行率成本削減行動反映了我們 2022 年基於費用的薪酬和福利以及 [OAO] 支出的約 2.0%。

Inclusive of these cost actions and a minimal equity earnings assumption, we anticipate our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the 14% to 16% range. We have a track record of fee revenue growth meaningfully exceeding global GDP growth and healthy margin expansion over the long term. This is largely due to the investments in our people and platform along with our focus on anticipating our clients' evolving needs, which position us to continue to drive stakeholder value. Christian, back to you.

包括這些成本行動和最低股權收益假設，我們預計 2023 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 14% 至 16% 的範圍內。我們有收費收入增長顯著超過全球 GDP 增長和長期健康利潤率增長的記錄。這主要是由於對我們的人員和平台的投資以及我們對預測客戶不斷變化的需求的關注，這使我們能夠繼續推動利益相關者的價值。克里斯蒂安，回到你身邊。

Thank you, Karen. As we look forward to 2023, the economic outlook is still uncertain. While inflation rates are beginning to slow, many central banks have not reached the end of their tightening cycles. However, we are entering this slowdown from a position of strength with strong labor markets and corporate balance sheets in good shape.

謝謝你，凱倫。展望2023年，經濟前景仍不明朗。雖然通貨膨脹率開始放緩，但許多中央銀行的緊縮週期尚未結束。然而，我們正從強勢的勞動力市場和良好的企業資產負債表進入經濟放緩。

Overall, we expect capital markets activity to recover quickly compared to previous downturns and for the current slowdown to be relatively short. Interest rates are expected to stabilize in the coming months allowing for bid-ask spreads to normalize in the current phase of price discovery to pass. These factors, when combined with the significant amount of available capital, paint an increasingly optimistic picture for the second half of 2023.

總體而言，我們預計資本市場活動將比之前的低迷時期迅速復蘇，而且當前的放緩時間相對較短。預計未來幾個月利率將穩定下來，從而使買賣價差在當前的價格發現階段正常化。這些因素與大量可用資本相結合，為 2023 年下半年描繪了一幅越來越樂觀的圖景。

Clients continue to engage in conversations with JLL about current market conditions and are ready to transact when uncertainty abates. As the current period of uncertainty subsides, a higher-than-normal number of expiring leases will help boost office activity. High-growth sectors such as industrial, life sciences and data centers are likely to emerge from a temporary pause to strong demand.

客戶繼續與仲量聯行就當前市場狀況進行對話，並準備在不確定性減弱時進行交易。隨著當前不確定性的消退，高於正常水平的到期租約數量將有助於促進寫字樓活動。工業、生命科學和數據中心等高增長行業可能會從暫時的停滯狀態轉為強勁需求。

Today, you have heard how we have taken cost actions to manage our business through this slowdown and deliver on our margin targets for 2023 and beyond. We are focused on improving free cash flow and remain committed to returning capital to shareholders.

今天，您已經了解到我們如何採取成本行動來管理我們的業務以應對經濟放緩並實現我們 2023 年及以後的利潤率目標。我們專注於改善自由現金流，並繼續致力於向股東返還資本。

Before I close, I would like to thank all our employees across the world for their commitment and hard work during the past year. So we all would have liked 2022 to end on a more positive note. It was our second best year in adjusted EBITDA dollars and our third best year in adjusted EBITDA margin within the last 10 years.

在我結束之前，我要感謝我們在世界各地的所有員工在過去一年中的承諾和辛勤工作。所以我們都希望 2022 年以更積極的方式結束。在過去 10 年中，這是我們調整後 EBITDA 金額第二好的年份，也是我們調整後 EBITDA 利潤率第三好的年份。

The efforts of our colleagues have made that possible and position JLL well to take advantage of the coming recovery in the commercial real estate market. We are, therefore, confident in achieving our 2025 financial targets of $10 billion to $11 billion of fee revenue and a 16% to 19% adjusted EBITDA margin. Operator, please explain the Q&A process.

我們同事的努力使這成為可能，並使仲量聯行處於有利地位，可以利用即將到來的商業房地產市場復甦。因此，我們有信心實現 2025 年 100 億至 110 億美元的費用收入和 16% 至 19% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的財務目標。請接線員解釋一下問答過程。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自邁克爾格里芬與花旗的合作。

Great. Christian, I wanted to expand on your comments just in the prepared remarks about the number of leases expiring in the near term, potentially boosting office activity.

偉大的。克里斯蒂安，我想在準備好的評論中擴展你關於近期到期的租約數量的評論，這可能會促進辦公室活動。

I mean, is that a read-through of what you might think office leasing demand is going to be for '23 and maybe that we get in (inaudible) of '24 just given the challenges the sector faces? And anything you could spend on there would be helpful.

我的意思是，這是對您可能認為 23 年辦公室租賃需求的通讀，也許我們只是考慮到該行業面臨的挑戰而進入 24 年（聽不清）？你可以在那里花的任何東西都會有所幫助。

Mike, listen, what we are seeing is that there's still that trend continuing that the best companies are trying to offer their employees the best possible space in each market. They're active in as a way to improve the return to offices and the well-being of their employees.

邁克，聽著，我們看到的是，最好的公司正在努力為每個市場的員工提供最好的空間，這種趨勢仍在繼續。他們積極參與改善辦公室回歸和員工福祉的方式。

And that in itself will be a driver of our office leasing business because we are very active in the Grade A space. And we should also not forget that this current recessionary environment, which we see predominantly in the Western world is not happening in Asia.

這本身將成為我們辦公室租賃業務的推動力，因為我們在甲級空間非常活躍。我們也不應忘記，當前這種我們主要在西方世界看到的衰退環境並沒有發生在亞洲。

The whole of Asia is back to the offices at a very normal level comparable to 2019 pre-pandemic. And the overall environment there is very strong. And so as you know, the Americas is slightly last on return to office. EMEA sits in the middle and Asia is very strong.

整個亞洲都恢復到與 2019 年大流行前相當的非常正常的水平。而且那裡的整體環境很強。如您所知，美洲在重返辦公室後稍晚。 EMEA 位於中間，亞洲非常強大。

So overall, we are kind of cautiously optimistic that the leasing markets will pick up over the course of this year. But maybe Karen wants to provide a little bit more commentary.

因此，總的來說，我們對今年租賃市場回暖持謹慎樂觀態度。但也許 Karen 想提供更多評論。

Yes. We're really seeing differences in our pipeline around the world and by property type. And one thing that's really important to highlight is this flight to quality point that we keep bringing up over the last few quarters, particularly for buildings constructed since 2015.

是的。我們確實看到了我們在世界各地的管道和財產類型的差異。真正需要強調的一件事是我們在過去幾個季度不斷提出的質量問題，特別是對於 2015 年以來建造的建築物。

That's the only category from an age perspective that is recording strong positive net absorption since the pandemic, with the other categories and older buildings more than offsetting that amount.

從年齡的角度來看，這是自大流行以來唯一記錄強勁正淨吸納量的類別，其他類別和較舊的建築抵消了這一數量。

And Karen, can you remind us how much of the leasing revenue is driven by office? I think you gave us the year-over-year decline in the prepared remarks. But just the percentage of that leasing revenue that might come from the office sector?

凱倫，你能提醒我們有多少租賃收入是由辦公室驅動的嗎？我認為你在準備好的評論中給了我們同比下降。但僅僅是來自辦公部門的租賃收入的百分比是多少？

Yes, it's between 50% and 60% roughly from a full year basis.

是的，從全年來看大約在 50% 到 60% 之間。

Great. And then just for my next question. You touched on kind of the external growth opportunities being selective, just given the current capital markets environment that we're in for 2023. I mean, any sense if you were to execute on any opportunities of what business lines you'd like to expand on where maybe you see the most opportunity in?

偉大的。然後只是我的下一個問題。考慮到我們在 2023 年所處的當前資本市場環境，您談到了某種外部增長機會是有選擇性的。我的意思是，如果您要抓住您想要擴展的業務線的任何機會，任何意義你在哪裡看到最多的機會？

Well, overall, we are very happy with the footprint we are having in the different business lines. There are always some tuck-in opportunities, but there's nothing which we are really missing. And I want to put right at the start that we feel that pricing is still very high, given the environment. So we have been cautious around M&A for some time now, and we will continue to be over the course of this year and going forward.

嗯，總的來說，我們對我們在不同業務領域的足跡感到非常滿意。總是有一些塞進去的機會，但我們真的沒有錯過任何東西。我想一開始就指出，考慮到環境，我們認為定價仍然很高。因此，我們對併購持謹慎態度已有一段時間了，我們將在今年和未來繼續保持謹慎。

But what we are seeing is that many of our clients have super ambitious ESG targets, and that will force them -- if they are not moving their real estate space and move into more modern buildings, as Karen just described, they will have to significantly upgrade their spaces. And so generally speaking, one of the most interesting opportunities sits around that project and development services as we call that business line. But again, we are very happy with our existing capacity. But if there's something coming around the corner, we would certainly look at it.

但我們看到的是，我們的許多客戶都有雄心勃勃的 ESG 目標，這將迫使他們——如果他們不搬遷他們的房地產空間並搬進更現代的建築，就像凱倫剛才描述的那樣，他們將不得不大幅升級他們的空間。因此，一般來說，最有趣的機會之一就是我們稱之為業務線的項目和開發服務。但同樣，我們對現有能力感到非常滿意。但如果有什麼事情即將發生，我們肯定會關注它。

The next question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Anthony Paolone。

My first question relates to Work Dynamics, and I'm just trying to put together some of the comments around project management, I guess, tying to leasing activity, but also some of the wins in workplace management. I guess bottom line, do you have visibility on growth in Work Dynamics revenue for '23?

我的第一個問題與 Work Dynamics 有關，我只是想整理一些關於項目管理的評論，我想，與租賃活動有關，但也包括工作場所管理方面的一些勝利。我想底線是，您是否了解 23 年 Work Dynamics 收入的增長情況？

Well, we are -- first of all, we are very happy with the performance of our Work Dynamics business in 2022. And we expressed at our investor meeting in November that we are confident that we will be able to expand margins in that business pretty consistently over the coming years, and nothing has changed about that view over the last couple of months.

好吧，我們 - 首先，我們對 Work Dynamics 業務在 2022 年的表現感到非常滿意。我們在 11 月的投資者會議上表示，我們有信心能夠相當大地擴大該業務的利潤率在接下來的幾年中始終如一，並且在過去幾個月中這種觀點沒有任何改變。

So first of all, I would say we put margins over top line growth within that business. But we are -- we continue to be confident about that top line growth. What is important to understand here, despite the fact that the return to office is still relatively slow in the U.S. that those companies who are outsourcing their real estate to service providers like us are usually also those companies who are very active on expanding and doing M&A.

因此，首先，我想說我們將利潤率置於該業務的頂線增長之上。但我們 - 我們繼續對收入增長充滿信心。這裡需要了解的是，儘管在美國重返辦公室仍然相對緩慢，但那些將房地產外包給像我們這樣的服務提供商的公司通常也是那些非常積極地進行擴張和併購的公司.

So we will see more buildings coming to us from our existing clients overall despite a potential reduction in their office footprint per person per employee. And so that will drive the top line growth. Then as I alluded to earlier, that whole notion around the E of the ESG is driving a lot of activity from our clients, which helps us to drive further top line growth.

因此，儘管他們每人每名員工的辦公室佔地面積可能會減少，但我們將看到更多的建築從我們現有的客戶那裡來。因此，這將推動收入增長。然後正如我之前提到的那樣，圍繞 ESG E 的整個概念正在推動我們客戶的大量活動，這有助於我們進一步推動收入增長。

So there are numerous services which we offer to those clients and all of their activities is helping us to grow our top line.

因此，我們為這些客戶提供了許多服務，他們的所有活動都在幫助我們增加收入。

Okay. So I mean is it fair to say that, that Work Dynamics should be probably the way you're seeing things right now, the brightest spot in the business segments for '23?

好的。所以我的意思是，可以公平地說，Work Dynamics 應該是您現在看待事物的方式，即 23 年業務部門中最亮點？

Well, it depends how you define brightest spot. It's a very important part of our business, and the proportion of that business will continue to grow over the next couple of years. But as you know, once the transactional markets are returning to a more normalized activity probability of our Capital Markets and our Leasing business tends to be still significantly higher. So I'm careful to make a category around what's brightest here.

嗯，這取決於你如何定義最亮點。這是我們業務中非常重要的一部分，未來幾年該業務的比例將繼續增長。但正如您所知，一旦交易市場恢復到我們資本市場和租賃業務更加正常化的活動概率，我們的租賃業務往往仍然明顯更高。所以我小心翼翼地圍繞這裡最亮的東西進行分類。

Okay. I understand. And then with regards to the $140 million of cost saves, can you give us a little more context around whether you see those as being permanent or are they coming by way of lower, say, T&E costs just due to less activity levels? Just any more depth there would be great.

好的。我明白。然後關於 1.4 億美元的成本節省，您能給我們更多的背景信息嗎？您是否認為這些是永久性的，或者它們是通過較低的方式來實現的，例如，T&E 成本只是由於活動水平較低？再深一點就更好了。

Sure, I'll take that one. So that's $140 million on a run rate basis. And again, approximately $125 million of that will come through in the calendar year 2023. It's primarily related to reductions in compensation and benefits from the restructuring of our business, so reductions in headcount.

當然，我會拿那個。因此，按運行率計算，這是 1.4 億美元。同樣，其中約 1.25 億美元將在 2023 年實現。這主要與我們業務重組帶來的薪酬和福利減少有關，因此與裁員有關。

And as we look at where that's from, it's really primarily non-producer headcount, and it's associated with positions that we really no longer require as we shifted our business operating model from a geographic to the business line focus.

當我們查看它的來源時，它實際上主要是非生產者人數，並且它與我們真正不再需要的職位相關，因為我們將我們的業務運營模式從地理重點轉移到業務線重點。

Okay. Got it. And then just last one, real quick. You talked about just being careful with capital allocation. Can you just comment on just any expectations for investments into JLL Tech and CapEx for the year?

好的。知道了。然後只是最後一個，非常快。你談到只是要小心資本配置。您能否評論一下今年對仲量聯行科技和資本支出的投資預期？

Well, we continue to invest into the long-term performance of JLL, and we have a strong conviction that it is very important to have the leading tech platform within our industry. We believe we have it, but we want to stay ahead of our competition with that, and so we will continue to invest there.

嗯，我們繼續投資於仲量聯行的長期業績，我們堅信擁有行業領先的技術平台非常重要。我們相信我們擁有它，但我們希望在競爭中保持領先地位，因此我們將繼續在那裡投資。

But we are applying the same kind of discipline around those investments as we apply to all other investments we do. They have to create shareholder value, and so they have to compete for capital as all the other areas of our business have to compete for capital.

但我們對這些投資應用了與我們所做的所有其他投資相同的紀律。他們必須創造股東價值，因此他們必須爭奪資本，就像我們業務的所有其他領域都必須爭奪資本一樣。

Okay. And maintenance CapEx?

好的。和維護資本支出？

Yes. We're continuing to invest in our platform and our people, and we don't expect significant increases from where we've been trending historically. We tend to look at sizing that on an annual basis within a certain band. So keeping that, an amount that's reasonable for the size of our business and our activities.

是的。我們將繼續投資於我們的平台和我們的員工，我們預計不會比我們歷史上的趨勢有顯著增長。我們傾向於在某個範圍內每年調整一次。因此，保持這一點對於我們的業務規模和我們的活動來說是合理的。

The next question comes from the line of Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Chandni Luthra 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

I'd like to stick with the theme of capital allocation, little bit in 2023. When do you expect to bring buyback in the mix? And how should we think about free cash conversion in 2023? Especially, as you know, sort of the changes that you made last year, you'll be lapping those. So help us understand that a bit, please.

我想堅持資本配置的主題，在 2023 年一點點。你預計什麼時候回購？我們應該如何考慮 2023 年的自由現金轉換？特別是，正如你所知，你去年所做的一些改變，你將會得到這些改變。請幫助我們稍微了解一下。

Yes. Sure. So on share repurchases, I mentioned in the remarks that we intend to resume our share repurchases over the course of 2023. We'll certainly be looking at the broader macro environment, our free cash flow and our overall debt levels as we think about the size and timing of those amounts that we're repurchasing.

是的。當然。所以關於股票回購，我在評論中提到我們打算在 2023 年期間恢復我們的股票回購。我們當然會關注更廣泛的宏觀環境、我們的自由現金流和我們的整體債務水平，因為我們考慮我們正在回購的這些金額的大小和時間。

As it relates to driving free cash flow, it's certainly an area of focus for us going forward. I listed out the number of specific factors that impacted that in 2022. And as you think about the first couple of those, I ticked off, which were one, the higher commissions related to strong record fourth quarter activity in 2021; as well as higher bonus and incentive compensation payments in March of 2022 which were also related to 2021. You'll have the reverse effect in the first quarter of 2023.

由於它與推動自由現金流有關，這無疑是我們未來的重點領域。我列出了影響 2022 年的具體因素的數量。當你想到其中的前幾個因素時，我勾選了一個，與 2021 年第四季度創紀錄的強勁活動相關的更高佣金；以及 2022 年 3 月更高的獎金和激勵薪酬支付，這也與 2021 年有關。你將在 2023 年第一季度產生相反的影響。

So to have that factor at play. And the other element that we'll be watching carefully is how the recovery of the transaction businesses manifest over the course of the year because that obviously has a significant impact on our cash flow overall.

所以要有這個因素在起作用。我們將密切關注的另一個因素是交易業務的複蘇在這一年中的表現，因為這顯然對我們的整體現金流產生重大影響。

Got it. And Karen, would it be possible for you to give us some guide post around fee revenue in 2023, especially as we think about investment sales and leasing?

知道了。凱倫，你能否就 2023 年的費用收入給我們一些指導，尤其是在我們考慮投資銷售和租賃時？

I understand you're not giving revenue guidance, but help us understand how should we model perhaps first quarter with respect to the fourth quarter that you guys just reported or frame the year in terms of first half versus second half? Any guide post would be helpful.

我知道您沒有提供收入指導，但可以幫助我們了解我們應該如何根據你們剛剛報告的第四季度對第一季度進行建模，或者根據上半年與下半年來構建年度？任何指南帖子都會有所幫助。

Sure. It's certainly -- it's a great question because it's certainly a challenging year that we're heading into. Right now, we're expecting a continued set of headwinds for particularly investment sales and leasing in the first and second quarter of the year and are planning accordingly.

當然。這當然是——這是一個很好的問題，因為我們即將進入充滿挑戰的一年。目前，我們預計今年第一季度和第二季度特別是投資銷售和租賃將面臨一系列不利因素，並正在製定相應的計劃。

Based on what we know right now and sentiment from our clients as we talk to them and based on expectations for the broader market. We expect that things will begin to recover in the second half of the year. We'll obviously be watching that very closely and looking at our pipelines, which still look healthy and are growing as we continue to have conversations with clients.

基於我們目前所了解的情況以及我們與客戶交談時的情緒，以及對更廣泛市場的預期。我們預計情況將在今年下半年開始復蘇。我們顯然會非常密切地關注這一點，並關注我們的管道，這些管道看起來仍然很健康，並且隨著我們繼續與客戶對話而不斷增長。

But the time to convert that to actual transaction is really being extended in this period of uncertainty. So we looking at our conversion rates and monitoring that closely and report. We report back each quarter on progress we're making and what we're seeing in each of those lines.

但在這段不確定時期，將其轉化為實際交易的時間確實在延長。因此，我們查看我們的轉化率並密切監控並報告。我們每個季度都會報告我們正在取得的進展以及我們在每一方面所看到的情況。

Got it. And I'll squeeze one more as well. Christian, this one is for you. Could you give us a sense of where our cap rates now across different property types? And how much more correction is needed before buyers and sellers meet?

知道了。我也會再擠一個。克里斯蒂安，這是給你的。您能否讓我們了解一下我們現在不同財產類型的上限率在哪裡？在買賣雙方見面之前還需要多少修正？

I guess what I'm trying to understand is how much is transaction activity, a function of cap rates as opposed to capital and debt market availability and lower interest rates.

我想我想了解的是交易活動有多少，是上限利率的函數，而不是資本和債務市場可用性以及較低的利率。

I can't give you where cap rates are because it depends so much which country and which asset class and then what type of asset within that asset class you're talking about. There is a very, very strong correlation...

我不能告訴你資本化率在哪裡，因為它在很大程度上取決於哪個國家和哪個資產類別，然後是你所談論的資產類別中的什麼類型的資產。有非常非常強的相關性......

I guess U.S.

我猜是美國

There's a very strong correlation between interest rates and cap rates. And at the moment, you clearly have the issue of negative leverage. And so that drives a certain type of buyers, and that's why you see the best buildings, which are actually only trading at the moment, because those are very often bought by buyers who will buy all equity.

利率和資本化率之間有很強的相關性。目前，你顯然有負槓桿的問題。因此，這推動了某種類型的買家，這就是為什麼你會看到最好的建築，這些建築實際上目前只是在交易，因為這些建築經常被購買所有股權的買家購買。

And they are just waiting how debt markets and especially spreads are developing over the next couple of months. And they will probably put some debt on those assets much later in the year or even wait for next year. We have seen cap rates kind of growing quite significantly over the last couple of months, but any kind of noise coming from the Fed and coming from the different data sets, which are relevant, are being taken in.

他們只是在等待未來幾個月債務市場，尤其是利差的發展情況。他們可能會在今年晚些時候甚至等到明年再為這些資產負債。在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到資本化率有相當顯著的增長，但來自美聯儲和來自不同數據集的任何類型的相關噪音都被考慮在內。

And so especially the last 2 weeks where we saw interest rates moving up again and spreads widening again, immediately create an additional kind of irritation to the market. And so we just have to be patient and let that go away. And as Karen alluded to, we are relatively kind of pragmatic that this year, we have to wait for the third and the fourth quarter before markets will really return and the first and the second quarter will be slow quarters and especially if you compare them to 2022 where the first and the second quarter were absolutely record quarters.

因此，尤其是在過去兩週，我們看到利率再次上升，利差再次擴大，這立即對市場造成了另一種刺激。所以我們只需要耐心等待，讓它消失。正如 Karen 提到的，我們相對務實一點，今年我們必須等待第三和第四季度，市場才會真正回歸，而第一和第二季度將是緩慢的季度，特別是如果你將它們與2022 年第一季度和第二季度絕對是創紀錄的季度。

And I can -- if you want to go into specifics on cap rates specific to the U.S. market, we can talk about that a bit for all the different property types at a high level.

我可以——如果你想詳細了解美國市場的資本化率，我們可以在高層次上討論一下所有不同的房地產類型。

The sector that we've seen the most movement in from either the peak or from the -- if you look at year-end 2019 would certainly be office, where if you say that approximately the range was 3.75% to 4.25%, now cap -- going in cap rates are 6% to 7%. And again, as Christian mentioned, these numbers can fluctuate depending on where you are and the quality of the property.

我們看到從峰值或從 - 如果你看一下 2019 年底肯定是辦公室，如果你說範圍大約是 3.75% 到 4.25%，現在上限-- 資本化率在 6% 到 7% 之間。而且，正如克里斯蒂安提到的那樣，這些數字可能會根據您所在的位置和財產的質量而波動。

But broadly speaking, that's the band. We've seen, it was in industrial, right? If you say the range was between 2.75% and 3.25%, now the pricing around 4.5% to 5.75%. Multifamily peak was similar to industrial and the range now is similar to industrial, although a bit tighter on the top end.

但從廣義上講，這就是樂隊。我們已經看到，它是在工業領域，對吧？如果你說範圍在 2.75% 到 3.25% 之間，那麼現在定價在 4.5% 到 5.75% 左右。 Multifamily peak 類似於工業，現在的範圍類似於工業，儘管高端有點緊。

And then finally, in retail, peak pricing was then 4.5% to 5.75% in the kind of most recent history and is moved out a little bit to 5.25% to 6.25%.

最後，在零售業，在最近的歷史中，峰值定價為 4.5% 至 5.75%，並略微移至 5.25% 至 6.25%。

The next question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW.

下一個問題來自 Jade Rahmani 與 KBW 的對話。

Wow, those cap rates, that's quite a move, maybe a little bit wider than of a move than I was thinking, and not just office but also multi and industrial. I wanted to ask you a bigger picture question just about JLL's valuation and the earnings consensus.

哇，那些上限率，這是一個相當大的舉措，可能比我想像的舉措範圍更廣，不僅是辦公室，還有多功能和工業。我想問你一個關於仲量聯行的估值和盈利共識的更宏觀的問題。

I think there's still significant uncertainty valuing this company. And it relates to the margin profile. Also there's a wide range of estimates in the consensus. But then also the high historical earnings contribution from equity income, incentive fees and most recently, over the last few years, the JLL Technologies PropTech investments, through mark-to-market valuation gains in the equity income line.

我認為對這家公司進行估值仍然存在很大的不確定性。它與保證金概況有關。共識中也有廣泛的估計。但隨後，股權收入、激勵費用以及最近幾年 JLL Technologies PropTech 投資的高歷史收益貢獻，通過股權收入線中按市值計價的估值收益。

So when you're making internal capital allocation decisions and prioritization setting, what valuation metrics are you benchmarking JLL to when you decide on share buybacks versus pursuing external growth opportunities?

因此，當您在製定內部資本分配決策和優先級設置時，在決定股票回購與尋求外部增長機會時，您將 JLL 的哪些估值指標作為基準？

Are you looking at the adjusted earnings and adjusted EBITDA metrics that you provide to folks like ourselves? Or is there an internal metric that excludes maybe nonrecurring items or items that are less recurring?

您是否正在查看您提供給像我們這樣的人的調整後收益和調整後 EBITDA 指標？或者是否有一個內部指標可以排除非經常性項目或不太經常性的項目？

Well, thank you for that challenging question early in the morning. A very good one. Listen, we have to take, obviously, different time horizons for the different areas of our business. So if we do tech investments, the time horizon is more between 5 to 10 years than if we were to make investments into our traditional service lines where we can take a much shorter time horizon.

好吧，謝謝你一大早提出這個具有挑戰性的問題。一個很好的。聽著，顯然，我們必須為我們業務的不同領域採取不同的時間範圍。因此，如果我們進行技術投資，則時間跨度比我們投資傳統服務線要長 5 到 10 年，後者的時間跨度要短得多。

We have had historically -- if you just take the average of the last couple of years, we have had historically an average of $100 million of equity earnings contributing to our results. Last year was the lowest over many years.

從歷史上看，如果你只取過去幾年的平均值，我們歷史上平均有 1 億美元的股票收益為我們的業績做出貢獻。去年是多年來最低的。

But you have to take that in the very long average because, obviously, we cannot influence those equity earnings and incentive fees on a quarter basis on an annual basis. And therefore, on those, we unfortunately have a lot of volatility, which we have to digest and which makes it hard for the market to make estimates. But it is a very important and lucrative part of our business. And therefore, we will continue to work on that and embed that in our strategy.

但是你必須把它放在很長的平均水平上，因為很明顯，我們不能按季度按年影響這些股權收益和激勵費用。因此，不幸的是，在這些方面我們有很大的波動性，我們必須消化這些波動性，這使得市場很難做出估計。但這是我們業務中非常重要且有利可圖的部分。因此，我們將繼續致力於此並將其納入我們的戰略。

And I would just add that from a -- we just look at return on invested capital on a risk-adjusted basis and across a portfolio of different things we can pursue.

我只想補充一點——我們只是在風險調整的基礎上以及我們可以追求的不同事物的投資組合中看待投資資本回報。

So obviously, a variety of factors go into that analysis. And can I go back to your comment, just also, Jade, on the size of the movement from peak to current levels of cap rates? If you go back and you look at where cap rates were at the end of 2019, the movement is not as great, particularly if you look at a sector like industrial, they're kind of right in that same zone.

很明顯，該分析涉及多種因素。我可以回到你的評論嗎，傑德，關於資本化率從峰值到當前水平的變化幅度？如果你回頭看看 2019 年底的資本化率，變化就沒有那麼大，特別是如果你看看像工業這樣的行業，它們就在同一個區域。

Same for retail. Housing was -- multi-housing was a little bit lower, and office was certainly lower. But it's easy to look at the most recent history and kind of pricing at the end of 2021, whether it's for cap rates or for debt cost and say, "Wow, look how far we've moved."

零售業也一樣。住房——多戶住宅價格略低，辦公樓價格肯定更低。但很容易看到 2021 年底的最新歷史和定價類型，無論是資本化率還是債務成本，然後說，“哇，看看我們走了多遠。”

But if you go back to our time horizon of 2018, 2019, the movement doesn't -- is not as great, and people were certainly transacting at those price points not so long ago, although it might feel like a long time ago now, given what's transpired over the last few years.

但如果你回到我們 2018 年、2019 年的時間範圍，變化並沒有那麼大，人們肯定在不久前以這些價格點進行交易，儘管現在感覺像是很久以前的事了，鑑於過去幾年發生的事情。

Just again on the capital allocation decisions. So if hypothetically, you were deciding whether to merge with a peer or whether to acquire a business, just say, a capital markets type of business, then you're comparing that decision versus buying back the stock.

又是關於資本分配的決定。因此，如果假設您正在決定是否與同行合併或是否收購一家企業，比如資本市場類型的企業，那麼您就是在將該決定與回購股票進行比較。

Are you looking at the stock valuation relative to the average adjusted earnings or adjusted EBITDA over the last few years? I mean, it wouldn't make sense to use this year because it's a down year. But in that calculation, are you stripping out any of the equity income say, on the JLL Technology side?

您是否正在查看相對於過去幾年平均調整後收益或調整後 EBITDA 的股票估值？我的意思是，使用今年是沒有意義的，因為它是低迷的一年。但在那個計算中，你是否剝離了 JLL Technology 方面的任何股權收入？

Yes. I mean, we're looking -- we look at our adjusted EBITDA, including, excluding equity earnings, obviously, because of the fluctuation in equity earnings.

是的。我的意思是，我們正在查看 - 我們正在查看調整後的 EBITDA，包括但不包括股票收益，顯然是因為股票收益的波動。

Okay. And then on the adjusted EPS calculation, I saw a line item I haven't -- I don't think I've seen with JLL, which is a subtraction for interest on employee loans net of forgiveness. Can you just give any color on what that relates to and why this new disclosure is here?

好的。然後在調整後的 EPS 計算中，我看到了一個我沒有看到的項目——我認為我沒有看到 JLL，這是扣除寬恕後的員工貸款利息。您能否就相關內容以及為什麼會出現此新披露給出任何顏色？

Yes, very good reading the footnotes, I'm impressed. So that was an addition this quarter. Previously, the interest amounts -- so first of all, let me take a step back. Those are related to interest amounts on certain employee contracts that we put in place with producers in our business.

是的，非常好地閱讀腳註，給我留下了深刻的印象。所以這是本季度的一個補充。以前，利息金額——所以首先，讓我退後一步。這些與我們在業務中與生產商簽訂的某些員工合同的利息金額有關。

And the interest that is accruing on those and then gets paid back over time based on the conditions for those contracts to be burned off. And so it's really a noncash item as it relates to us because it's simply increasing the period of time over which that amount needs to be earned back. And we are, therefore, excluding it.

那些產生的利息然後根據這些合同被燒毀的條件隨著時間的推移得到償還。所以它真的是一個與我們相關的非現金項目，因為它只是增加了需要賺回這筆錢的時間。因此，我們將其排除在外。

Is that going to be an ongoing adjustment?

這將是一個持續的調整嗎？

Yes, it will be. And one other point. It was previously immaterial because of interest rates, but now that interest rates are increasing, right, that's starting to be a more meaningful number.

是的，會的。還有一點。由於利率的原因，它以前並不重要，但現在利率正在上升，對，這開始成為一個更有意義的數字。

So this is going to be a deduction going forward from GAAP earnings to adjusted earnings? Or will it become a positive contribution?

那麼這將是從 GAAP 收益到調整後收益的扣除嗎？還是會變成積極的貢獻？

It depends on the timing of the amount of new contracts put in place and any particular quarter and how much interest is accruing on those relative to how much is burned off in the quarter.

這取決於新合同數量的時間和任何特定的季度，以及相對於該季度燒掉的利息，這些利息產生了多少。

So because our -- and particularly in a period like this, where you have transaction volumes that are fluctuating pretty greatly from quarter-to-quarter, the outcome could be different. In the coming years, we expect it will be a deduction from GAAP.

因此，因為我們——尤其是在這樣一個時期，交易量每個季度的波動都很大，結果可能會有所不同。在未來幾年，我們預計它將從 GAAP 中扣除。

Okay. I'll probably have to follow up with you later on that. And then the restructuring charges had also a big uptick quarter-over-quarter. I think usually in the fourth quarter, there is an uptick, but definitely outside the range over the last few quarters. Any color you can provide on that and what we would expect for 2023?

好的。稍後我可能需要跟進你。然後重組費用也環比大幅上升。我認為通常在第四季度會有上升，但絕對超出了過去幾個季度的範圍。您可以提供任何顏色以及我們對 2023 年的期望嗎？

Yes. So the uptick in this quarter was really related to -- or the last quarter is related to the restructuring activities that I mentioned as it relates to our headcount reduction due to the changes in our operating model and roles becoming redundant, different management layers being removed.

是的。因此，本季度的增長確實與 - 或者上一季度與我提到的重組活動有關，因為它與我們裁員有關，因為我們的運營模式和角色變得多餘，不同的管理層被刪除.

As we mentioned at November investor briefing and we're going to reference today, we're continuing to drive forward in terms of operating efficiencies in our business that we can have better operating leverage as our platform scales in the future. Some of that will require investment, some of that will involve restructuring activities. And so I would expect some additional restructuring costs to come through in 2023.

正如我們在 11 月的投資者簡報會上提到的以及我們今天將要提到的那樣，我們將繼續提高我們業務的運營效率，隨著我們未來平台的擴展，我們可以擁有更好的運營槓桿。其中一些將需要投資，其中一些將涉及重組活動。因此，我預計 2023 年會出現一些額外的重組成本。

The final question comes from the line of Patrick McIlwee with William Blair.

最後一個問題來自 Patrick McIlwee 和 William Blair 的台詞。

I understand that the overarching trends are not ideal. But given some of your peers reported leasing trends that were a bit more stable, can you provide any more color on what drove the deceleration in that business?

我知道總體趨勢並不理想。但鑑於您的一些同行報告的租賃趨勢更加穩定，您能否提供更多關於推動該業務減速的因素？

And kind of as a 2 part to that, given leasing is generally expected to follow trends in capital markets, if you'd expect things to get worse before they get better heading into 2023?

作為第二部分，考慮到租賃通常會跟隨資本市場的趨勢，如果您預計情況會在 2023 年好轉之前變得更糟？

Yes. Great question. So first, on the leasing declines. Our business mix really tends to skew to the higher -- high-quality, larger transactions. And in the U.S., anyway, as we looked at from an overall market perspective, the slowdown in office leasing was primarily driven by the large 100,000 square foot plus occupier segment, which is where, right, major corporate requirements are falling.

是的。很好的問題。首先，關於租賃下降。我們的業務組合確實傾向於更高質量、更大的交易。在美國，無論如何，正如我們從整體市場的角度來看，寫字樓租賃放緩主要是由 100,000 平方英尺以上的大型租戶細分市場推動的，這正是主要企業需求下降的地方。

And the overall market leasing levels for that segment, right, that's 100,000 square foot plus, was the lowest recorded since early 2021. So since -- right after the recovery started. And it was more than 50% below the pre-pandemic quarterly average for that size segment.

該細分市場的整體市場租賃水平，對，即 100,000 平方英尺以上，是自 2021 年初以來的最低記錄。因此，就在復蘇開始之後。它比該規模細分市場的大流行前季度平均水平低 50% 以上。

So that really was for us, a pretty significant impact to our overall revenues. And sorry, remind me your second -- I know, it was the timing of declines relative to different segments. So the investment sales decline did begin before the leasing declines. And that's typically the way, right?

所以這對我們來說真的是，對我們的整體收入產生了相當大的影響。抱歉，提醒我你的第二個——我知道，這是相對於不同細分市場下降的時間。因此，投資銷售下降確實在租賃下降之前就開始了。這通常是方式，對吧？

You'll have leasing declines then, sorry, investment sales decline, then leasing, then project management because of the relationship, the project management to leasing. We did have more pronounced declines compared to the prior year beginning in November for leasing as compared to September for investment sales.

然後你會有租賃下降，對不起，投資銷售下降，然後是租賃，然後是項目管理，因為關係，項目管理到租賃。與去年 11 月開始的租賃相比，與投資銷售的 9 月相比，我們確實有更明顯的下降。

So that gives you an idea of the kind of time gap between when we really started seeing more significant falloff in activity between those 2 transaction lines.

因此，這讓您了解了我們真正開始看到這兩條交易線路之間的活動出現更顯著下降之間的時間差距。

Got it. That's great. And then just quickly, you mentioned that you're still on track to achieve your 2025 targets. And in November, you did mention that those assume a recessionary environment in 2023.

知道了。那太棒了。然後很快，您提到您仍在實現 2025 年目標的軌道上。在 11 月，您確實提到那些假設 2023 年經濟衰退的環境。

I guess given the commentary you gave us today, would you say that your expectations in terms of the severity or timing of that environment have changed? Or would you see that recent developments are baked in for the most part there?

我想鑑於您今天給我們的評論，您是否會說您對該環境的嚴重性或時間的預期已經改變？或者你會看到最近的發展大部分都在那裡？

For the time being, we are still in line with our expectations expressed in November. We are obviously expecting a pretty strong recovery of the transactional environment in the second half of this year. So let's wait for the second half of this year, whether we have to take anything away from that.

目前，我們仍然符合我們在 11 月份表達的預期。我們顯然預計今年下半年交易環境將出現強勁復甦。所以讓我們等待今年下半年，我們是否必須從中拿走任何東西。

There are no questions waiting at this time. I would now like to pass the conference back over to Christian for closing remarks.

目前沒有問題等待。我現在想將會議轉回給 Christian 作閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator. On behalf of the entire JLL team, we thank you all for participating on the call today. Karen and I look forward to speaking with you again following the first quarter.

謝謝你，運營商。我們代表整個仲量聯行團隊，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。 Karen 和我期待在第一季度之後再次與您交談。

That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。