JJill Inc (JILL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. (Operator Instructions) to welcome everyone to the J.Jill Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call are Claire Spofford, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Webb, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫 Rob，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。 （操作員說明）歡迎大家參加 J.Jill 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼首席執行官克萊爾·斯波福德 (Claire Spofford)；執行副總裁、首席財務官兼首席運營官 Mark Webb。 （操作員說明）

Before we begin, I need to remind you that certain comments made during these remarks may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and J.Jill's SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made on this recording are as of March 14, 2023, and J.Jill does not undertake any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Finally, J.Jill may refer to certain adjusted or non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks. A reconciliation schedule showing the GAAP versus non-GAAP financial measures is available in the press release issued March 14, 2023. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of the website at jjill.com. I will now turn the call over to Claire.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，這些言論中的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述，並且是根據經修訂的 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款並在其含義內作出的。此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與此類陳述存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性在新聞稿和 J.Jill 提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有所描述。本錄音中的前瞻性陳述截至 2023 年 3 月 14 日，J.Jill 不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。最後，J.Jill 可能會在這些評論中提及某些調整後或非 GAAP 財務措施。 2023 年 3 月 14 日發布的新聞稿中提供了顯示 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬時間表。如果您沒有今天的新聞稿副本，您可以通過訪問網站的投資者關係頁面獲取一份，網址為jjill.com。我現在將把電話轉給克萊爾。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Thank you for your interest in J.Jill. For today's call, I will review highlights of our fourth quarter and full year performance and provide an update on our strategy before turning the call over to Mark to review our financial performance and outlook in more detail.

謝謝接線員，大家好。感謝您對 J.Jill 的關注。對於今天的電話會議，我將回顧我們第四季度和全年業績的亮點，並提供我們戰略的最新情況，然後再將電話轉交給馬克，以更詳細地審查我們的財務業績和前景。

We are pleased to have delivered stronger-than-expected top and bottom line results for the fourth quarter. Sales increased 1.7% versus the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $15 million. We believe the actions we took entering the quarter, specifically related to our decision to pull holiday and winter deliveries forward positively impacted our results and supported strong full price selling early in the quarter. Throughout the period, we continue to see little price resistance to unique and novelty styles to gravitate toward dresses and sweaters and cozy seasonal styles like Chanel sweaters and versatile occasion options. These results include a slightly higher promotional cadence over the holiday period in order to exit the quarter in a clean inventory position.

我們很高興在第四季度實現了強於預期的頂線和底線結果。銷售額比上年增長 1.7%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1500 萬美元。我們相信我們進入本季度採取的行動，特別是與我們將假期和冬季交貨提前的決定相關的行動，對我們的業績產生了積極影響，並支持了本季度初強勁的全價銷售。在此期間，我們繼續看到對獨特和新穎款式的價格阻力很小，以吸引連衣裙和毛衣以及香奈兒毛衣和多功能場合選擇等舒適的季節性款式。這些結果包括在假期期間略微提高促銷節奏，以便以乾淨的庫存狀況退出本季度。

Our fourth quarter performance capped off a strong year for J.Jill, in which we delivered sales growth of over 5% as well as an increase in adjusted EBITDA of over 19%, driven by gross margin expansion and disciplined expense management. These results are a testament to the hard work of our teams and the improvements and increased disciplines we've instilled in our operating model over the past 2 years as we focused on full price selling, inventory management and flowing newness.

我們第四季度的業績為 J.Jill 強勁的一年畫上了句號，在毛利率擴張和嚴格的費用管理的推動下，我們實現了超過 5% 的銷售額增長以及超過 19% 的調整後 EBITDA 增長。這些結果證明了我們團隊的辛勤工作以及我們在過去 2 年中在我們的運營模式中灌輸的改進和加強紀律，因為我們專注於全價銷售、庫存管理和流動的新鮮感。

Through the strong execution of these principles, we have reinforced our foundation, allowing us to better capitalize on our brand strength and the opportunities that lay ahead. As we look forward to driving profitable growth, we remain encouraged by several important elements of the J.Jill business.

通過強有力地執行這些原則，我們鞏固了基礎，使我們能夠更好地利用我們的品牌實力和未來的機遇。在我們期待推動盈利增長的同時，我們仍然受到 J.Jill 業務的幾個重要因素的鼓舞。

We have a terrific customer [be is] loyal, engaged and relatively affluent compared to the average consumer. Our brand proposition as a premium casual retailer is more relevant than ever. She's shopping for quality fabrications and clothing that moves through her life and day with her. The team here does a really great job of translating trends and developing products that our customer has demonstrated she is willing to pay full price for.

與普通消費者相比，我們有一個了不起的客戶 [be] 忠誠、敬業且相對富裕。我們作為高級休閒零售商的品牌主張比以往任何時候都更加重要。她正在購買與她一起生活和日常生活的優質面料和服裝。這裡的團隊在轉化趨勢和開發我們的客戶已經證明她願意支付全價的產品方面做得非常出色。

We also benefit from a balanced business model that is relatively evenly split across stores and e-commerce, allowing our customers to shop and enjoy a delightful experience wherever and whenever she chooses to shop with us. That said, I often say our brand is still somewhat of a well-kept secret, and that creates an opportunity for us to further expand awareness and in turn, gain share in our market.

我們還受益於平衡的商業模式，該模式在商店和電子商務之間相對平均分配，讓我們的客戶隨時隨地購物並享受愉快的體驗。也就是說，我經常說我們的品牌在某種程度上仍然是一個保守的秘密，這為我們創造了一個機會來進一步擴大知名度，進而在我們的市場中獲得份額。

As we move into 2023, we will maintain the focus on our operational discipline to ensure strong execution given the uncertain macro environment. We will also move forward with the profitable opportunities for growth we discussed in prior calls. In 2022, we invested in strategies focused on driving awareness and customer acquisitions. We modernized the J.Jill brand, focusing on communicating our brand value proposition more effectively to customers while amplifying our position as a size-inclusive shopping destination through the launch of our Welcome Everybody campaign in the second half of the year. We are pleased to see growth in this space, both in new-to-brand and reactivated customers. While still fairly early, we are pleased with the initial success of this initiative and an opportunity to build on it in 2023 and beyond.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們將繼續關注我們的運營紀律，以確保在不確定的宏觀環境下強有力的執行。我們還將繼續推進我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的盈利增長機會。 2022 年，我們投資了側重於提高知名度和客戶獲取的戰略。我們對 J.Jill 品牌進行了現代化改造，專注於更有效地向客戶傳達我們的品牌價值主張，同時通過在今年下半年推出的 Welcome Everybody 活動擴大我們作為尺寸包容性購物目的地的地位。我們很高興看到這個領域的增長，包括新客戶和重新激活的客戶。雖然還為時過早，但我們對這項計劃的初步成功以及在 2023 年及以後繼續發展的機會感到高興。

As part of this focus, we are testing and optimizing new marketing channels and working with influencers in the size inclusivity category to further penetrate our targeted customer segment with our compelling products and brand proposition. Underlying much of this work is our commitment to staying close to our customer and listening to her through our ongoing customer insights work, an initiative we stood up in earnest in 2022, which we now leverage to explore opportunities to understand and further meet our customers' wants and needs.

作為這一重點的一部分，我們正在測試和優化新的營銷渠道，並與尺寸包容性類別的影響者合作，以我們引人注目的產品和品牌主張進一步滲透我們的目標客戶群。這項工作的大部分基礎是我們致力於通過持續的客戶洞察工作與客戶保持密切聯繫並傾聽她的意見，這是我們在 2022 年認真提出的一項舉措，現在我們利用它來探索了解和進一步滿足客戶需求的機會想要和需要。

In addition to modernizing our brand and value proposition, we continue to see opportunity to engage and acquire customers through growing on both our retail and direct channels. Approximately 60% of new customers make their first purchase through our stores and we are focused on investing in tools and systems that will allow us to leverage this important channel to enhance our omni capabilities even further.

除了使我們的品牌和價值主張現代化之外，我們繼續看到通過在我們的零售和直接渠道上發展來吸引和獲取客戶的機會。大約 60% 的新客戶通過我們的商店進行首次購買，我們專注於投資工具和系統，使我們能夠利用這一重要渠道進一步增強我們的全方位能力。

Our omnichannel customers spend approximately 3x more per year than our single-channel customers. And through a new POS system, which we are rolling out in 2023, we expect to improve the ease of transactions across channels over time. Today, we are in an enviable position of not being overstored, and we will continue to evaluate store opening opportunities as the economics make sense. We are excited to follow our Granger, Indiana store opening in Q4, which marked our first store opening in 3 years with 2 additional openings planned for Q1 2023.

我們的全渠道客戶每年的支出比我們的單渠道客戶多大約 3 倍。通過我們將於 2023 年推出的新 POS 系統，我們希望隨著時間的推移提高跨渠道交易的便利性。今天，我們處於沒有被過度存儲的令人羨慕的位置，我們將繼續在經濟上有意義的情況下評估開店機會。我們很高興地看到我們在印第安納州格蘭傑的門店將於第四季度開業，這標誌著我們 3 年來的第一家門店開業，併計劃在 2023 年第一季度再開設 2 家門店。

As Mark will discuss, our first quarter outlook reflects a challenging year-over-year comparison, but we remain focused on our principles and look forward to continuing to delight our customers with our new spring assortments.

正如 Mark 將要討論的那樣，我們第一季度的展望反映了與去年同期相比具有挑戰性的情況，但我們仍然專注於我們的原則，並期待繼續以我們的新春季產品系列取悅我們的客戶。

Looking to the balance of the year. Visibility to the consumer environment for 2023 is difficult, and we will consequently remain focused on managing the business with discipline while simultaneously building our platform for profitable growth as we move forward. Now I will turn the call over to Mark to discuss our financial performance in more detail.

展望今年的餘額。很難看到 2023 年的消費者環境，因此我們將繼續專注於有紀律地管理業務，同時在我們前進的過程中建立我們的盈利增長平台。現在我將把電話轉給馬克，更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Claire, and good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with performance in 2022 as our disciplined profit-focused operating model continued to deliver strong results, including healthy cash generation. The fourth quarter ended the year on a strong note with results above our expectations.

謝謝你，克萊爾，大家早上好。我們對 2022 年的業績感到非常滿意，因為我們紀律嚴明的以利潤為中心的運營模式繼續帶來強勁的業績，包括健康的現金產生。第四季度以強勁的業績結束了這一年，業績超出了我們的預期。

Total company comparable sales for the fourth quarter increased 5.3%, driven by strength in the stores channel. Total company sales for the quarter were $148 million, up 1.7% compared to Q4 2021. This performance was better than prior guidance due largely to a better-than-expected January, which was the strongest month in the quarter when compared to prior year.

第四季度公司可比銷售額總額增長 5.3%，受門店渠道實力的推動。本季度公司總銷售額為 1.48 億美元，與 2021 年第四季度相比增長 1.7%。這一業績好於之前的指引，這主要是由於 1 月份好於預期，這是本季度與去年同期相比表現最強勁的月份。

Store sales for Q4 were up over 6% versus Q4 2021 on 4% fewer stores. Traffic and full-price average unit retail drove the increase over last year with the traffic comparison likely benefiting in part due to the impact to traffic last year from the COVID Omicron surge.

與 2021 年第四季度相比，第四季度的門店銷售額增長了 6% 以上，而門店數量減少了 4%。流量和全價平均單位零售推動了去年的增長，流量比較可能部分受益於去年 COVID Omicron 激增對流量的影響。

Direct sales as a percentage of total sales were 50% in the quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, direct sales were down 2.5% as sales mixed more to markdown and online returns ticked up slightly. Q4 total company gross profit was $95 million, up $2 million compared to Q4 2021. Q4 gross margin was 64.4% and up 50 basis points over Q4 2021, driven by about 270 basis points of freight favorability which more than offset margin pressure from increased raw material costs and additional markdowns taken in the quarter to ensure clean inventory as we start 2023.

本季度直接銷售額佔總銷售額的百分比為 50%。與 2021 財年第四季度相比，直接銷售額下降了 2.5%，原因是銷售混合更多地降價，在線退貨略有上升。公司第四季度總毛利潤為 9500 萬美元，比 2021 年第四季度增加 200 萬美元。第四季度毛利率為 64.4%，比 2021 年第四季度增長 50 個基點，這主要得益於約 270 個基點的運費優惠，這大大抵消了原材料增加帶來的利潤壓力材料成本和本季度的額外降價，以確保我們在 2023 年開始時清潔庫存。

SG&A expenses were $87 million compared to $85 million last year, driven by increases in marketing, store selling costs on higher sales and slightly higher operating hours and G&A overhead. Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million in the quarter compared to $15.2 million in Q4 2021.

SG&A 費用為 8700 萬美元，而去年為 8500 萬美元，這是由於營銷、商店銷售成本增加、銷售額增加以及營業時間和 G&A 管理費用略高所致。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1500 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 1520 萬美元。

For the full year, we delivered total net sales growth of 5.1% and to $615.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $109.4 million, up $17.7 million or 19.2% over fiscal full year 2021. Please refer to today's press release for a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA.

全年，我們實現了 5.1% 的總淨銷售額增長，達到 6.153 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.094 億美元，比 2021 財年全年增加 1770 萬美元或 19.2%。有關調整後 EBITDA 的對賬，請參閱今天的新聞稿。

Turning to cash flow. For the quarter, we generated $8 million of cash from operations, resulting in ending cash of $87 million with 0 borrowings against the ABL. For fiscal 2022, we generated $74.4 million of cash from operations. We continue to focus on tight inventory management and have now largely worked through the supply chain disruption that began in the back half of 2021. In line with our expectations, we ended the year with inventory levels down 10% compared to the end of year 2021 and are comfortable with the balance of full price and markdown units.

轉向現金流。本季度，我們從運營中產生了 800 萬美元的現金，導致期末現金為 8700 萬美元，ABL 借款為 0。在 2022 財年，我們從運營中產生了 7,440 萬美元的現金。我們繼續專注於嚴格的庫存管理，現在基本上已經解決了 2021 年下半年開始的供應鏈中斷問題。與我們的預期相符，我們年底的庫存水平比 2021 年底下降了 10%並且對全價和降價單位的平衡感到滿意。

Capital expenditures in the quarter were about $10 million, bringing total spend for the year to $15 million compared to $5 million last year. We made important investments this year. We replatformed our e-commerce site, performed necessary capital maintenance, opened our first new store in over 3 years and launched and made good progress on our new POS initiative.

本季度的資本支出約為 1000 萬美元，使全年總支出達到 1500 萬美元，而去年為 500 萬美元。我們今年進行了重要投資。我們對我們的電子商務網站進行了平台改造，進行了必要的資本維護，開設了 3 年多來的第一家新店，並啟動了我們的新 POS 計劃並取得了良好進展。

Actual capital spend was above prior guidance due to more timely procurement of POS hardware than previously estimated. With respect to store count, we closed 5 stores in the fourth quarter and opened 1 resulting in net 10 closures for fiscal year 2022. We ended the year with 243 stores.

由於 POS 硬件的採購比先前估計的更及時，實際資本支出高於先前的指導。關於門店數量，我們在第四季度關閉了 5 家門店，並開設了 1 家，導致 2022 財年淨關閉 10 家門店。年底我們有 243 家門店。

Turning to our outlook for fiscal 2023. Given uncertainty related to the 2023 macroeconomic forecast and our overarching objective to maintain profitability over time, we are guiding full year adjusted EBITDA and about flat to fiscal 2022. This outlook includes the benefit of the 53rd week in fiscal 2023, which is expected to deliver about $8 million in sales and $2 million in adjusted EBITDA.

轉向我們對 2023 財年的展望。鑑於與 2023 年宏觀經濟預測相關的不確定性以及我們隨著時間的推移保持盈利能力的總體目標，我們指導全年調整後的 EBITDA 與 2022 財年持平。該展望包括第 53 週的收益2023 財年，預計將實現約 800 萬美元的銷售額和 200 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

We remain very disciplined with respect to inventory buys as we enter the year and will retain some flexibility should the economic outlook materially improve. As it relates to the cadence of our outlook, we expect to anniversary our strongest quarters from a sales perspective in the first half of the year and expect to benefit from gross margin tailwinds associated with freight favorability which will help to mitigate potential promotional activity should the environment warranted.

進入今年以來，我們在庫存購買方面仍然非常有紀律，如果經濟前景顯著改善，我們將保持一定的靈活性。由於它與我們展望的節奏有關，我們預計從今年上半年的銷售角度來看我們最強勁的季度，並預計將受益於與運費優惠相關的毛利率順風，這將有助於減少潛在的促銷活動環境保證。

More specifically, for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, we expect sales to be down in the mid-single digits compared to Q1 2022, and first quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $25 million and $30 million. Regarding store count, we expect flat store count to end 2023 with any openings offset by closures.

更具體地說，對於 2023 財年第一季度，我們預計銷售額與 2022 年第一季度相比將下降中個位數，第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2500 萬美元至 3000 萬美元之間。關於門店數量，我們預計到 2023 年底門店數量將持平，而新開的門店將被關閉所抵消。

As Claire mentioned in her remarks, we believe there is opportunity to grow this channel and are actively pursuing select new store openings, but we are steadfast in the metrics we need to do so as well as the economics required to retain existing stores that come up for lease review in 2023.

正如克萊爾在她的發言中提到的，我們相信有機會發展這一渠道，並正在積極尋求選擇新店開張，但我們對我們需要這樣做的指標以及保留現有商店所需的經濟性持堅定態度於 2023 年進行租賃審查。

To the extent we need to close stores, we will do so and are confident based on recent experience that if we do, it will not materially impact EBITDA. It is our intent to strike fair deals and in time, begin to grow this important channel. With respect to full year capital, we expect to spend between $18 million and $20 million with investments focused on technology, stores capital and the completion of the POS project late in 2023. Thank you, and I will now hand it back to the operator for questions.

如果我們需要關閉門店，我們會這樣做，並且根據最近的經驗我們有信心，如果我們這樣做，不會對 EBITDA 產生重大影響。我們打算達成公平交易，並及時開始發展這一重要渠道。關於全年資本，我們預計將花費 1800 萬至 2000 萬美元，重點投資於技術、商店資本和 2023 年底完成的 POS 項目。謝謝，我現在將其交還給運營商問題。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Dana Telsey from Telsey Group.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

Congratulations on the continued progress and nice results. A couple of questions. As you think about the Welcome Everybody campaign, how do you think of that continuing to evolve Claire, as you had mentioned, is it marketing? Is it influencers? Is it product what should we see in terms of product as we go through the year? And given the raw material costs, how are you thinking about pricing in '23 versus '22? And then just on the gross margin side, given the level of promotions in the macro, how are you thinking about promotions given your clean inventories and on that margin side, how much is freight favorability this year? And is there differences as we go through the year, along with the impact of raw material costs?

祝賀你取得了持續的進步並取得了不錯的成績。幾個問題。當你想到 Welcome Everybody 活動時，你如何看待 Claire 的持續發展，正如你所提到的，這是營銷嗎？是影響者嗎？在我們經歷這一年的過程中，我們應該在產品方面看到什麼？考慮到原材料成本，您如何考慮 23 年和 22 年的定價？然後就毛利率而言，考慮到宏觀促銷水平，考慮到您的清潔庫存，您如何考慮促銷，在毛利率方面，今年的運費優惠度是多少？隨著原材料成本的影響，這一年我們是否存在差異？

Thanks, Dana. I'll take the first part, and then I'll let Mark speak specifically to the freight impact. The Welcome Everybody campaign is as we said, we're pleased with the success to date. It's really a reflection of the whole brand and the inclusive sizing initiative is part of that. So we are continuing to lean into that. We are seeing some real terrific results in terms of paid social, video channels, new channels for us and then some very focused marketing efforts against acquiring customers in the inclusive sizing space. And some nice kind of return on investment in terms of some of those acquisition channels. So we're continuing to lean into that. We're very focused on it. From a product standpoint, you will see more of the things that we're doing very well in '22.

謝謝，達娜。我先講第一部分，然後讓馬克具體談談運費影響。 Welcome Everybody 活動正如我們所說，我們對迄今為止的成功感到滿意。這確實是整個品牌的反映，包容性尺碼計劃是其中的一部分。因此，我們將繼續關注這一點。我們在付費社交、視頻渠道、我們的新渠道方面看到了一些真正了不起的結果，然後是一些非常集中的營銷努力，以在包容性尺碼領域吸引客戶。就其中一些收購渠道而言，還有一些不錯的投資回報。因此，我們將繼續關注這一點。我們非常專注於此。從產品的角度來看，你會看到更多我們在 22 年做得很好的事情。

We continue to focus on the strength in dresses and unique pieces that she's been voting with her dollars on and saying she's willing to pay for uniqueness and specialness, one of those with our pure gel elements capsule. We're continuing with that, which really stretches kind of the upper boundaries of the brand from a price point standpoint. And yes, I think continuing to do a good job, the team is of translating what's going on in the marketplace for our customer, and she seems to be responding to that. With regard to pricing, we are always evaluating our pricing across the assortment. We step back and as we've talked about, we try to take a surgical approach to it and make sure that we are pricing appropriately for the consumer and what she's willing to pay for. So we'll continue to do that as a matter of course and just the way we manage the business.

我們繼續關注她一直用金錢投票的連衣裙和獨特單品的優勢，並表示她願意為獨特性和特殊性買單，其中一款採用我們的純凝膠元素膠囊。我們將繼續這樣做，從價格的角度來看，這確實延伸了品牌的上限。是的，我認為繼續做好工作，團隊正在為我們的客戶翻譯市場上正在發生的事情，她似乎正在對此做出回應。關於定價，我們一直在評估我們對整個品類的定價。我們退後一步，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們嘗試對其採取外科手術的方法，並確保我們的定價適合消費者以及她願意支付的費用。因此，我們繼續這樣做是理所當然的，也是我們管理業務的方式。

And then from a promotional environment standpoint, we feel like the best defense against potentially increasing promo environment is to have great product and to be disciplined with our inventory so that we don't have to promote more than absolutely necessary, but we continue to stay very vigilant. We watch what's happening competitively, and we respond accordingly. But we feel like -- we have some potential hedges against that promotional environment and that has a lot to do with the freight impact on the P&L coming down. So I'll let Mark speak more specifically to that.

然後從促銷環境的角度來看，我們認為防止潛在增加的促銷環境的最好方法是擁有優質的產品並嚴格控制我們的庫存，這樣我們就不必促銷超過絕對必要的東西，但我們會繼續保持非常警惕。我們觀察競爭中發生的事情，並做出相應的反應。但我們覺得 - 我們對促銷環境有一些潛在的對沖，這與運費對損益表的影響有很大關係。因此，我將讓 Mark 更具體地說明這一點。

Claire And Dana, thanks for the questions. So the freight, as you mentioned, for the year, freight was headwinds in the first half of the year 2022 and then tailwinds in the back half. And on a year-over-year basis, it was about neutral from 2021 into 2022, but 2021 was carrying incremental freight. So 2022 is as well. And that is in the range of around 100 basis points or so of incremental freight, which has now largely abated. And those tailwinds experienced in the back half of the year will continue through the first half and then a little bit continuing through the back half. And that really is, as Claire mentioned, a hedge for us against the overarching objective to maintain the profitable profile we've achieved to date coming out of the COVID world and then the rebased operating model, which we're very proud of. So view that as opportunity against the cautious outlook that we expressed in our remarks.

克萊爾和達娜，謝謝你的提問。所以，正如你提到的，今年的貨運量在 2022 年上半年是逆風，然後是下半年的順風。與去年同期相比，從 2021 年到 2022 年幾乎保持中性，但 2021 年運費有所增加。所以 2022 年也是如此。這是在大約 100 個基點左右的增量運費範圍內，現在已經大大減少了。而今年下半年經歷的順風將持續到上半年，然後在下半年繼續一點點。正如克萊爾提到的那樣，這確實是對我們的總體目標的一種對沖，即維持我們迄今為止從 COVID 世界中取得的盈利狀況，然後是我們引以為豪的重新調整的運營模式。因此，將這視為反對我們在言論中表達的謹慎前景的機會。

And any further update on the refinancing of the loan timing or thoughts there?

還有關於貸款時間或想法再融資的進一步更新嗎？

We put in the press release today, Dana, that we continue to explore options. We've been working on this for some time and continue to do so. I have said before the business and its evidence in the results for '22 generates substantial cash flow and a priority for that is to address the balance sheet, refinance our funded debt and even so still have the opportunity to invest in the business, which our capital guide for 2023 indicated as we're going to continue to invest in technology, the POS project, which is making great progress and some of the store investments that we've talked about.

Dana，我們今天發布了新聞稿，我們將繼續探索各種選擇。我們已經為此努力了一段時間，並將繼續這樣做。我之前說過，該業務及其在 22 年業績中的證據產生了大量現金流，為此，我們的首要任務是解決資產負債表問題，為我們的融資債務再融資，即便如此，我們仍然有機會投資我們的業務2023年的資本指南表明我們將繼續投資於技術，POS項目，它正在取得很大進展，以及我們談到的一些商店投資。

Your next question comes from the line of Janet Kloppenburg from JJK Research.

您的下一個問題來自 JJK Research 的 Janet Kloppenburg。

Congratulations on a great year. I was just wondering about the mix of business. I know you said the dresses were performing well, but we're also hearing that casual is coming back a little bit. And I wonder what was happening there and active in denim and bottoms. And also, if you could talk a little bit about sort of initial response to [spring] and if your guidance on comps reflects -- or your guidance on top line for the first quarter reflects the current trend. And I understand and appreciate last year's tough comparison. .

祝賀你度過了美好的一年。我只是想知道業務組合。我知道你說裙子表現不錯，但我們也聽說休閒風正在回歸。我想知道那裡發生了什麼，活躍在牛仔布和褲裝中。而且，如果你能談談對 [spring] 的初步反應，如果你對 comps 的指導反映了——或者你對第一季度收入的指導反映了當前的趨勢。我理解並欣賞去年的強硬對比。 .

Thanks, Janet. Yes, from a mix standpoint, dresses were strong all year last year, and we anticipate that they'll continue to be strong. But we're -- we have a great portfolio, our core brand and our sub-brands. So we saw strengths in dresses across those, the core brand and the sub-brands. We saw some nice strength last year in wherever, which is our more slightly more refined dressing, which she buys for work, travel and slightly dressier occasions. And we also saw strength in, as I mentioned, Pure Jill, we tested and had a small capsule throughout the back half of the year, rotating in on something called Pure Jill Elements, which is a little bit more artisanal, beautiful fabrication, special techniques at higher price points and she responded to that. But we're still a casual brand overall. So the core products in our assortment did well as well.

謝謝，珍妮特。是的，從混合的角度來看，去年全年的連衣裙都很強勁，我們預計它們將繼續保持強勁勢頭。但我們——我們擁有出色的產品組合、我們的核心品牌和我們的子品牌。因此，我們看到了核心品牌和子品牌在連衣裙方面的優勢。去年我們在任何地方都看到了一些不錯的力量，這是我們更精緻的服飾，她為工作、旅行和稍微更正式的場合購買。正如我提到的，我們還看到了 Pure Jill 的優勢，我們在今年下半年測試並擁有一個小膠囊，輪流使用一種叫做 Pure Jill Elements 的東西，它有點手工，製作精美，特別更高價位的技術，她對此做出了回應。但我們總體上仍然是一個休閒品牌。因此，我們產品系列中的核心產品也表現出色。

And we -- as we've often talked about, we flex those depending on seasonality and trends that we see in the consumer. But what we did see a little bit of softness in Q4 and in the back half of the year in our Fit collection, which is that active piece. It's a very small part of our business. And so we just sort of manage that down a little bit going forward, but we continue to see nice response on some of the trends that we saw coming out of '22.

而且我們 - 正如我們經常談到的那樣，我們根據我們在消費者中看到的季節性和趨勢來調整這些。但我們確實在第四季度和下半年看到了我們的 Fit 系列的一些疲軟，這就是那個活躍的作品。這只是我們業務的一小部分。因此，我們只是在某種程度上將其向前推進了一點，但我們繼續看到對 22 年出現的一些趨勢的良好反應。

Sorry, I would talk about the guidance and what's embedded. Every quarter has its important weeks and it's less important weeks and no disrespect to February, but I would say in Q1, February is not typically one of the more important months and weeks. It's weather impacted a lot of the time and you're coming out of the January efforts that everybody is putting into ending their fiscal year. I would say it's not disregarded, but it's not the driver, and they are big important weeks left in the quarter. The primary backdrop to the guidance we provided is sort of the caution we have on the macro consumer just given the macroeconomic uncertainty. And then that comparison, which you mentioned last year coming out of the end of 2021, Q1 of '22 was a very strong quarter. So those 2 things lead us to what we believe to be the prudent guide that we provided for Q1.

抱歉，我想談談指南和嵌入的內容。每個季度都有其重要的幾周和不太重要的幾週，並且對 2 月沒有不尊重，但我想在第一季度說，2 月通常不是更重要的月份和周之一。天氣在很多時候都受到影響，你正在從一月份的努力中走出來，每個人都在為結束他們的財政年度而付出努力。我會說這並沒有被忽視，但這不是驅動因素，而且他們是本季度剩下的重要幾週。我們提供指導的主要背景是，鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們對宏觀消費者持謹慎態度。然後是你去年提到的 2021 年底的比較，22 年第一季度是一個非常強勁的季度。因此，這兩件事將我們引向了我們認為是我們為第一季度提供的審慎指南。

And when you think about the promotional environment, Claire, both for the fourth quarter and now, can you just talk about any incremental pressure you've been -- you experienced in the fourth quarter or that you're seeing now?

當你想到促銷環境時，克萊爾，無論是第四季度還是現在，你能談談你所承受的任何增量壓力——你在第四季度經歷過的，或者你現在看到的嗎？

Sure. So fourth quarter, I think I mentioned in my remarks, we made the decision to move our holiday assortment and that gave more full price selling for the big promotional weekends. We went into the promotional weekends trying to hold our promo cadence on a year-over-year basis, and that was sort of our posture over Black Friday, Cyber Monday. And then we did indicate that we needed to promote a little bit more surgically during December to move through a couple of categories that we're turning a little more slowly. We did that. And with the intention of coming out of the quarter, in the right inventory position and as clean as we could. January was strong for us. We had real strength. January tends to be a more markdown driven month in the quarter, and we saw real strength in markdowns in January and ended sort of on a strong note from that perspective. And again, in the inventory position we wanted to end in.

當然。所以第四季度，我想我在我的評論中提到，我們決定移動我們的假期分類，這為大型促銷週末提供了更多的全價銷售。我們進入了促銷週末，試圖在一年比一年的基礎上保持我們的促銷節奏，這就是我們在黑色星期五、網絡星期一的姿態。然後我們確實表示，我們需要在 12 月期間進行更多的外科手術式推廣，以通過我們正在緩慢轉變的幾個類別。我們做到了。並打算在本季度結束時處於正確的庫存位置並儘可能保持清潔。一月對我們來說很強勁。我們有真正的實力。 1 月份往往是本季度降價驅動的月份，我們在 1 月份看到了真正的降價力度，並且從這個角度來看，在某種程度上以強勁的勢頭結束。再一次，在我們想要結束的庫存位置。

Okay. But you're not feeling like the department stores or any of your specialty store competitors or e-com platforms like have heated up their promotional activity and that's for sure hand.

好的。但您不會覺得百貨公司或您的任何專賣店競爭對手或電子商務平台已經升溫了他們的促銷活動，這是肯定的。

Obviously, we watch all of that, but it's not forcing our hand. We had a very strong Q1 last year with the low promo level, and we're hoping to be able to anniversary that, but we are not naive to the fact that there are a lot of macroeconomic dynamics out there, and we always keep an eye on the competitive environment as well.

顯然，我們看到了所有這些，但這並沒有迫使我們採取行動。去年第一季度我們有一個非常強勁的促銷水平，我們希望能夠週年紀念，但我們並不天真地認為那裡有很多宏觀經濟動態，我們始終保持還要關注競爭環境。

Congratulations again.

再次祝賀。

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Lupo from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Daniel Lupo。

Just looking at the CapEx guidance, a pretty meaningful step up in kind of normalizing back to pre-COVID levels. So you mentioned like 3 or 4 buckets with the POS systems, the maintenance CapEx, technology and some growth CapEx. Can you maybe quantify these buckets a little bit further? And as we try to reconcile store count remaining flat with CapEx stepping up, how do we think about maybe the cadence of leases coming due and maybe the potential sizes of closures?

看看資本支出指南，這是一個非常有意義的步驟，可以正常化回到 COVID 之前的水平。所以你提到了 3 或 4 個 POS 系統、維護資本支出、技術和一些增長資本支出。您能否進一步量化這些桶？當我們試圖調和商店數量持平與資本支出增加時，我們如何考慮即將到期的租賃節奏以及關閉的潛在規模？

Thanks, Daniel. Yes. So the capital guide of $18 million to $20 million, you're right. We spent $15 million this year. We're quite honestly excited to return to investing in the business and primarily investing in some of these very important foundational systems, the POS being sort of the first element of that and very excited to invest there. And it will really upgrade and bring current our store and omni opportunities around the point of sale. So that is a very large project. We've been executing it, as I mentioned, through 2022, and we'll begin to pilot it and roll it out with being true to our cautious approach to things. We'll be rolling it out and piloting it through '23 in the coming months. and very excited about that.

謝謝，丹尼爾。是的。所以 1800 萬美元到 2000 萬美元的資本指南，你是對的。我們今年花費了 1500 萬美元。老實說，我們很高興能重新投資於該業務，主要投資於其中一些非常重要的基礎系統，POS 是其中的第一個要素，我們非常高興能在那裡投資。它將真正升級並帶來當前我們的商店和銷售點周圍的全方位機會。所以這是一個非常大的項目。正如我提到的，我們一直在執行它，直到 2022 年，我們將開始試行並推出它，並忠實於我們對事物的謹慎態度。在接下來的幾個月中，我們將推出它並在 23 年進行試點。對此非常興奮。

The store investments are both refreshes as well as some new stores Claire mentioned, 2 that we're excited about in the coming weeks and no further guidance on that other than to say that we stand ready to invest in stores as the economics come together in the way that we need them to, to support this very important channel for us. And then the technology bucket that we mentioned is really about business process support and more business intelligence type investments than we've had previously. So from our perspective, it's a manageable level of investment. The business generates significant cash flow, and these are really investments that strengthen foundations and help us pivot as we do to the profitable growth profile we want to obtain in the coming years.

商店投資既有更新，也有 Claire 提到的一些新商店，2 我們對未來幾週感到興奮，除了說我們隨時準備投資商店外，沒有進一步的指導，因為經濟在我們需要他們的方式，為我們支持這個非常重要的渠道。然後我們提到的技術桶實際上是關於業務流程支持和比我們以前擁有的更多商業智能類型的投資。因此，從我們的角度來看，這是一個可管理的投資水平。該業務產生大量現金流，這些真正的投資可以加強基礎並幫助我們轉向我們希望在未來幾年獲得的盈利增長狀況。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then lastly, as we kind of head into 2023, you mentioned inventory is in a good starting position. Can you maybe comment a little bit further on the working capital picture and maybe how nimble you can be in adjusting working capital to further protect to the downside if there is any sort of rapid change in the economic environment?

知道了。這很有幫助。最後，當我們進入 2023 年時，您提到庫存處於良好的開端。您能否進一步評論一下營運資金情況，以及如果經濟環境發生任何快速變化，您可以多靈活地調整營運資金以進一步保護下行？

Yes. The purchases that we've sort of entered the year, the purchasing mindset, I guess, I would call it is one of caution given the macroeconomic conditions. Claire mentioned, best offenses, defense or best defense [as offense]. I always get those 2 messed up, but that includes a very cautious absolute level of inventory investment and that's reflected in the way that we enter the year and the go-forward profile is going to continue to be 1 of a conservative investment in inventory. The flexibility at this point in the year is marginal to the middle of the year and a bit more room to flex both down but as well as up should conditions improve into the back half of the year, really in the late Q3, Q4 timeframe.

是的。我們今年進入的採購，採購心態，我想，我會稱之為考慮到宏觀經濟狀況的謹慎之一。克萊爾提到，最好的進攻、防守或最好的防守[作為進攻]。我總是把這兩個搞砸了，但這包括一個非常謹慎的絕對水平的庫存投資，這反映在我們進入這一年的方式上，而未來的情況將繼續是保守的庫存投資之一。今年這個時候的靈活性與年中相比是微乎其微的，如果情況在今年下半年有所改善，實際上是在第三季度末、第四季度的時間框架內，則有更多的空間可以向下和向上彎曲。

And this ends our Q&A session and does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

這結束了我們的問答環節，並結束了今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。